NFL Picks Against the Spread: Week 2, 2022

NFL Picks (Preseason 2022): 7-5 (+$645)
NFL Picks (Week 1, 2022): 10-6 (+$1,165)

2022 NFL Picks: 17-11 (+$1,810)
2021 NFL Picks: 153-141-2 (+$210)
NFL Picks (2020): 138-124-7 (+$9,350)
NFL Picks (2019): 148-128-9 (+$1,200)
NFL Picks (2018): 140-134-12 (+$845)
NFL Picks (2017): 137-147-10 (-$4,300)
NFL Picks (2016): 148-127-10 (+$780)
NFL Picks (2015): 133-138-10 (-$3,215)
NFL Picks (2014): 143-133-7 (-$1,885)
NFL Picks (2013): 144-131-8 (+$7,825)
NFL Picks (2012): 130-145-8 (-$7,445)
NFL Picks (2011): 137-133-12 (-$1,335)
NFL Picks (2010): 144-131-8 (+$5,880)
NFL Picks (2009): 151-124-9 (+$4,235)
NFL Picks (2008): 136-125-6 (+$6,105)
NFL Picks (2007): 162-135-10 (+$3,585)
If you don’t quite understand the line, total or anything else, go to my Sports Betting FAQ.

Vegas betting action updated Sept. 18, 11:30 a.m. ET. Follow @walterfootball for updates.


Go to Week 2 NFL Picks – Early Games






NFL Picks Against the Spread: Week 2 Late Games


Atlanta Falcons (0-1) at Los Angeles Rams (0-1)
Line: Rams by 10. Total: 46.

Sunday, Sept. 18, 4:05 PM


The Matchup. Edge: Rams.

Video of the Week: As most of you know, I had a baby boy last December. E-mailer Doug L. sent me this video, showing me what my interactions with my son will be in 16-20 years:



This is definitely going to happen because of karma – I used to do the same thing to my parents!

LOS ANGELES OFFENSE: The Rams struggled mightily on this side of the ball last week. Despite winning the turnover battle, they could hardly produce any points against the Bills, as Von Miller abused Joseph Noteboom all evening.

Matthew Stafford will be relieved to play against the Falcons, who don’t pressure the quarterback at all. There won’t be anyone remotely resembling Miller lining up on the other side of the ball, so Stafford’s pass protection will be much better.

Stafford will need this extra protection to combat the strength of Atlanta’s defense, which is cornerback. The Falcons have two terrific corners, but I trust Sean McVay to scheme open Cooper Kupp and maybe Allen Robinson. I also like Tyler Higbee against the Falcons linebackers.

ATLANTA OFFENSE: The Falcons were able to generate more offense than expected last week. They did so via Marcus Mariota and Cordarrelle Patterson runs. I’m sure Mariota will have some nice scrambles in this game, but Patterson should be more limited by a Los Angeles defense that is strong against the run.

With no great running game to lean on this time, Mariota will be asked to do more as a passer. This could have disastrous ramifications. Jalen Ramsey will erase Drake London, while Kyle Pitts will be smothered as well. Mariota will also face relentless pressure from Aaron Donald and Leonard Floyd, which could force him into some turnovers.

RECAP: Following the Rams’ blowout loss to the Bills, I asked people on Twitter what they thought the spread of this game would be even though the Falcons hadn’t played yet. Most said somewhere in the range of -10 to -11. Someone guessed Falcons -3, but I think they were trolling. Regardless, -10 to -11, which turned out to be correct, is a stark difference compared to the advance spread of this game, which was -13.5.

A week ago, -13.5 seemed reasonable. The Rams, after all, are defending Super Bowl champions, while the Falcons were believed to be one of the worst teams in the NFL. If the latter is still true, however, then the -13.5 line would still be legitimate, and I think that’s the case. Atlanta nearly beat the Saints, but those teams always play close games. Meanwhile, the Rams were crushed, but they’re way too good not to rebound with a statement victory. They’ve also had extra time to prepare for a bad opponent, which is a huge advantage for them.

I loved the Rams when they opened at -10, but that line quickly disappeared because of sharp action. The line is now -10.5, but I still love Los Angeles. Great teams are always an outstanding proposition coming off an embarrassing loss, so this is going to be one of my bigger bets of the week.

THURSDAY THOUGHTS: Nothing has changed for me with this game. I still love the Rams. Only some major injury news would change my mind.

SATURDAY NOTES: The sharps have bet the Falcons, likely because of the injury report. The Rams likely won’t have Leonard Floyd, and they might be without two offensive linemen. Center Brian Allen is out, while left tackle Joe Noteboom is questionable, though he was limited in practice on Thursday and Friday. This is a bummer because I wanted to bet the Rams, but they’re not at full strength. I’m lowering my unit count.

SUNDAY MORNING NOTES: The Rams have some injury concerns, so I’m looking forward to seeing their inactives. Check back around 3:30 Eastern to see my final thoughts.

FINAL THOUGHTS: Both Joseph Noteboom and Leonard Floyd are active for the Rams, which is a big deal. I’m going to bet three units on the Rams at -10 -105. The sharps, however, took the Falcons at +10.5.






The Motivation. Edge: None.
No edge found.


The Spread. Edge: Rams.

WalterFootball.com Calculated Spread: Rams -9.
Westgate Advance Point Spread: Rams -13.5.
Computer Model: Rams -9.
DVOA Spread: .






The Vegas. Edge: None.
Some early money on the Falcons.

Percentage of money on Atlanta: 55% (122,000 bets)


The Trends. Edge: None.
  • Opening Line: Rams -11.
  • Opening Total: 47.5.
  • Weather: Dome.



  • Week 2 NFL Pick: Rams 31, Falcons 10
    Rams -10 -105 (3 Units) – Bookmaker — Incorrect; -$315
    Under 46 (0 Units) — Incorrect; $0
    Rams 31, Falcons 27




    Seattle Seahawks (1-0) at San Francisco 49ers (0-1)
    Line: 49ers by 9. Total: 39.5.

    Sunday, Sept. 18, 4:05 PM


    The Matchup. Edge: 49ers.

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    SAN FRANCISCO OFFENSE: Trey Lance was an abomination in Week 1, but let’s not completely rule him to be a colossal draft bust just yet. He was playing in a monsoon, after all. Conditions figure to be much more favorable in San Francisco this week.

    I’m not just referring to the weather. Lance will be battling a defense with some major holes. The Seahawks don’t have a very good pass rush, and they have some issues in their secondary. Lance will have more time in the pocket this week, so he’ll be able to locate Deebo Samuel, Brandon Aiyuk and potentially George Kittle for considerable gains.

    Speaking of Samuel, he figures to be utilized heavily as a runner out of the backfield with Elijah Mitchell sidelined. He’ll have success in that regard, as the Seahawks’ run defense had problems against Javonte Williams and Melvin Gordon last week, at least when the two running backs weren’t fumbling at the goal line.

    SEATTLE OFFENSE: Geno Smith had the game of his life Monday night, but his magical carriage nearly turned into a pumpkin at the very end. Smith completed his first 13 passes, but successfully converted only six passes in the second half. The Smith we know and love was dying to emerge, but Denver’s incompetence prevented the Seahawks from fully imploding.

    I think we’ll see more of the second-half version of Smith in this contest. The 49ers have the personnel to make life extremely difficult for him in the pocket. I don’t trust Seattle’s rookie tackles to hold up very well against Nick Bosa and company.

    The Seahawks also won’t run nearly as well as they did Monday night. They had an advantage with Rashaad Penny because the Broncos were missing Josey Jewell, but San Francisco’s ground defense is stout.

    RECAP: The 49ers embarrassed themselves in Chicago. They’re so toxic now that no one wants to bet on them. Who in their right mind would wager a high number on Lance, especially against a Seattle team coming off a victory against the Russell Wilson-led Broncos?

    Well, I’m crazy enough to do it. I love betting on great teams coming off humiliating defeats, and yes, I know that means laying a big number with Lance. However, Lance covered a double-digit spread versus the Texans last year, and I think he can do so again in this matchup, given that he’ll be battling one of the worst teams in the NFL again. Besides, Lance is just one of 22 starters the 49ers have, and most of San Francisco’s starters are better than what the Seahawks have.

    Oh, and if you’re wondering, I still believe the Seahawks are one of the worst teams in the league. They beat Denver, but they were outgained, 433-253. They prevailed because the Broncos came away with no points on two separate drives ending at the Seattle 1-yard line, plus Nathaniel Hackett completely botched the end of the game. Had Seattle lost, I think people would think of this game a bit differently. And if the 49ers had beaten the Bears like they were supposed to – they outgained Chicago – everyone would be all over San Francisco. Let’s take advantage of this overreaction with a huge bet on the host.

    THURSDAY THOUGHTS: It seems as though some sharp money has come in on the Seahawks, which is surprising. I wonder if this has anything to do with some bad news San Francisco received on the injury report.

    SATURDAY NOTES: Justin Coleman missed Friday’s practice, so if he’s out, the Seahawks will be missing three key members of their secondary. On the flip side, George Kittle barely practiced again, so he’s unlikely to play. The sharp action I mentioned in the Thursday Thoughts paragraph may have been phantom movement because pro money has come in on San Francisco.

    SUNDAY MORNING NOTES: We’re waiting on George Kittle news. I personally don’t care all that much about Kittle because the 49ers are so much better than the Seahawks, but Kittle’s absence could drop the line a half point.

    FINAL THOUGHTS: As expected, this line has dropped a half point because George Kittle is sidelined. I don’t think the 49ers need him for this matchup, but it appears as though the sharps disagree. Regardless, I love the 49ers to win in a blowout. The best line is -8.5 -105 at Bovada.





    The Motivation. Edge: 49ers.
    The Seahawks are coming off their “Super Bowl” win.


    The Spread. Edge: None.

    WalterFootball.com Calculated Spread: 49ers -8.
    Westgate Advance Point Spread: 49ers -9.
    Computer Model: 49ers -11.
    DVOA Spread: .






    The Vegas. Edge: None.
    Equal action.

    Percentage of money on Seattle: 51% (117,000 bets)


    The Trends. Edge: Seahawks.
  • History: Seahawks have won 15 of the last 17 meetings.
  • Kyle Shanahan is 8-3 ATS after losing as a favorite.
  • Kyle Shanahan is 9-17 ATS as a favorite of 3.5 or more.
  • Opening Line: 49ers -8.5.
  • Opening Total: 43.
  • Weather: Cloudy, 72 degrees. Light wind.



  • Week 2 NFL Pick: 49ers 27, Seahawks 3
    49ers -8.5 -105 (5 Units) – Bovada — Correct; +$500
    Under 39.5 (0 Units) — Correct; $0
    49ers 27, Seahawks 7




    Cincinnati Bengals (0-1) at Dallas Cowboys (0-1)
    Line: Bengals by 7.5. Total: 42.

    Sunday, Sept. 18, 4:25 PM


    The Matchup. Edge: Bengals.

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    DALLAS OFFENSE: In case you’ve been living under a rock, Dak Prescott suffered a broken hand against the Buccaneers and will miss the next 6-8 weeks. Cooper Rush will start in his place for the time being.

    This is obviously a disastrous development for the Cowboys, who already had major issues. They lost two offensive linemen in the offseason, and then watched Tyron Smith suffer an injury prior to the opener. And if that wasn’t bad enough, guard Connor McGovern got hurt Sunday night. Dallas now has a skeleton-crew offensive line that will be charged with keeping Cincinnati’s dynamic pass rush at bay. I don’t see that happening.

    The Bengals should be able to clamp down on the run as well. They restricted Najee Harris last week, and they’ll be able to do the same with Ezekiel Elliott. Being able to play closer to the line of scrimmage as a result of Prescott’s absence will only help.

    CINCINNATI OFFENSE: Joe Burrow was considered the injured quarterback ahead of Week 1 because of his appendectomy. Burrow was very rusty in the first half, commiting four turnovers, but he was much sharper following intermission. I suspect we’ll see that Burrow in this contest.

    Burrow may not have one of his starting receivers, as Tee Higgins suffered a concussion last week. Luckily for Burrow, he still has plenty of weapons at his disposal. He’ll be able to connect with Ja’Marr Chase, Tyler Boyd and Hayden Hurst versus a Dallas back seven with some major holes. The Cowboys will pressure Burrow with Micah Parsons, but Cincinnati’s offensive line will prevent that from occurring too often.

    Besides, Burrow may not have to throw the ball often in this contest. The Cowboys were unable to contain Leonard Fournette on the ground, so Joe Mixon should be able to pick up where Fournette left off.

    RECAP: I love betting good teams starting their backup quarterbacks, and I’m also a big fan of fading bad teams starting dreadful reserve quarterbacks. The Cowboys are certainly not a good team, by any stretch of the imagination, but are they a bad team? I’m leaning yes. They have some superstars like Parsons, CeeDee Lamb, Elliott, Zack Martin and Dalton Schultz, but most of their roster is garbage. Their offensive line is a mess, while their wide receiver group outside of Lamb is atrocious. Rush is a miserable signal-caller, so I believe Dallas will have trouble covering the spread in most of their games until Prescott is 100 percent.

    Meanwhile, the Bengals are in a good spot. They’re coming off a loss to the Steelers, so they’ll be looking to rebound. Elite quarterbacks typically bounce back off defeats, and I have no problem proclaiming that Burrow fits into that category. Burrow is 10-2 against the spread after a loss, so I’m expecting him to be very focused for this matchup.

    I’ll be betting the Bengals for at least a couple of units. This spread shifted from Dallas -2.5 to Cincinnati -7.5 because of the quarterback change, but given how bad Rush is, and how miserable most of the Cowboys’ roster is, I think this line change is valid.

    THURSDAY THOUGHTS: I’m surprised that this line hasn’t continued to rise. Who is keeping this from moving up!?

    SATURDAY NOTES: There’s sharp money on the Cowboys, and I don’t understand why. Dallas will be without two starting offensive linemen, as well as talented safety Jayron Kearse. Of course, Dak Prescott will be sidelined again, as will Michael Gallup. That said, I worry about this game a bit because Joe Burrow may not be 100 percent off his appendectomy.

    SUNDAY MORNING NOTES: The public is pounding the Bengals into oblivion, yet the line hasn’t moved at all. Hmm…

    FINAL THOUGHTS: I don’t understand why, but the sharps love the Bengals. This line is -7 -110 at Bookmaker and FanDuel. If you like the Cowboys, you can find +7.5 at Bovada.





    The Motivation. Edge: Bengals.
    Joe Burrow is coming off a loss.


    The Spread. Edge: Bengals.

    WalterFootball.com Calculated Spread: Bengals -8.5.
    Westgate Advance Point Spread: Cowboys -2.5 (Prescott).
    Computer Model: Bengals -11.
    DVOA Spread: .






    The Vegas. Edge: Cowboys.
    No one wants to bet the Bengals.

    Percentage of money on Cincinnati: 86% (133,000 bets)


    The Trends. Edge: Bengals.
  • Joe Burrow is 10-2 ATS after a loss.
  • The underdog is 109-79 ATS in Cowboys games since 2010.
  • Opening Line: Cowboys -2.5.
  • Opening Total: 51.
  • Weather: Dome.



  • Week 2 NFL Pick: Bengals 30, Cowboys 3
    Bengals -7 (1 Unit) – Bookmaker/FanDuel — Incorrect; -$110
    Teaser: Panthers +8.5, Bengals -2 (2 Units) – Bovada — Incorrect; -$240
    Under 42 (0 Units) — Correct; $0
    Cowboys 20, Bengals 17




    Houston Texans (0-0-1) at Denver Broncos (0-1)
    Line: Broncos by 10. Total: 45.5.

    Sunday, Sept. 18, 4:25 PM


    The Matchup. Edge: Broncos.

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    DENVER OFFENSE: The Broncos scored only 16 points against the Seahawks on Monday night, but that was a very misleading result. They outgained Seattle, 433-253, but lost because of late-game coaching blunders and two scoreless drives that ended on the Seattle 1-yard line. Inexplicably, Javonte Williams and Melvin Gordon both fumbled inches away from the goal line.

    Both Williams and Gordon will have a great chance to redeem themselves in this contest. The Texans are terribly weak to the run, which will be a huge problem in this matchup. We just saw Jonathan Taylor accumulate 161 yards against Houston. Williams and Gordon could easily combine to exceed that figure.

    Williams and Gordon will open up better passing opportunities for Russell Wilson, who also has an easy matchup. The Texans don’t offer much of a pass rush, while their secondary struggles to cover. Michael Pittman Jr. just had a big game, so at least one of Courtland Sutton or Jerry Jeudy will thrive.

    HOUSTON OFFENSE: The Broncos were struggling to contain Rashaad Penny in the early stages of the Monday night affair, which makes it odd that the Seahawks got away from the run in the second half. I wouldn’t expect Houston to neglect giving the ball to Dameon Pierce and Rex Burkhead.

    That said, it might be more difficult for Pierce and Burkhead to match Penny’s production. That would be the case if linebacker Josey Jewell returns from injury. Jewell missed the Week 1 matchup, but might be available this week.

    An ineffective running game will make life very difficult for Davis Mills. Denver has some talented cornerbacks who will be able to smother Brandin Cooks and company, and if that happens, Mills could be completely lost in this matchup.

    RECAP: Everyone seems excited about Houston’s victory. The public betting action as of Tuesday morning is heavily lopsided in the Texans’ direction. Denver’s ridiculous loss to the Seahawks is only convincing casual bettors to load up on Houston.

    I suppose people are impressed that the Texans tied the Colts, but that was a very misleading result. The Texans were outgained by a colossal margin, 517-299. The Colts scored a combined six points from drives that ended at the Houston 27, 2, 22, 30, 39, 4, and 16. The Texans should have lost that game, and if they had, this spread would be different.

    I love getting elite quarterbacks off a loss, and Wilson still qualifies as such, especially with this superior Denver supporting cast. I plan on betting a few units on the Broncos.

    THURSDAY THOUGHTS: I was thinking about potentially dropping the unit count. The Broncos, with one fewer day to prepare, might be a bit distracted from answering questions about Nathaniel Hackett. I don’t know if they’ll be fully focused.

    SATURDAY NOTES: There are a couple of injury concerns for the Broncos. Josey Jewell could be sidelined again after practicing only once. Randy Gregory is listed as questionabe. And then there’s Justin Simmons, who was put on injured reserve. I’m not comfortable laying double digits with a banged-up team, though I’d still be OK with Denver if Gregory were able to play.

    SUNDAY MORNING NOTES: Denver has some major injury question marks, so the inactive list will be very important.

    FINAL THOUGHTS: Josey Jewell is out, but Randy Gregory will play for the Broncos. I still like Denver. The best line I see is -10 -110 at Bookmaker. There isn’t much sharp action on this game.





    The Motivation. Edge: Broncos.
    It’s difficult for teams to bounce back from ties. Russell Wilson is coming off a tie.


    The Spread. Edge: None.

    WalterFootball.com Calculated Spread: Broncos -11.
    Westgate Advance Point Spread: Broncos -10.5.
    Computer Model: Broncos -11.
    DVOA Spread: .






    The Vegas. Edge: None.
    What is this nonsense.

    Percentage of money on Denver: 59% (118,000 bets)


    The Trends. Edge: Broncos.
  • Russell Wilson is 28-16 ATS after a loss since his second season.
  • Opening Line: Broncos -10.5.
  • Opening Total: 43.5.
  • Weather: Sunny, 88 degrees. Light wind.



  • Week 2 NFL Pick: Broncos 31, Texans 14
    Broncos -10 (2 Units) – Bookmaker — Incorrect; -$220
    Under 45.5 (0 Units) — Correct; $0
    Broncos 16, Texans 9




    Arizona Cardinals (0-1) at Las Vegas Raiders (0-1)
    Line: Raiders by 5.5. Total: 51.5.

    Sunday, Sept. 18, 4:25 PM


    The Matchup. Edge: None.

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    ARIZONA OFFENSE: Most people expected the Chiefs-Cardinals Week 1 battle to be a shootout, but it turned out to be an onslaught. Excluding an early touchdown, the Cardinals couldn’t do anything to generate any sort of offense before garbage time.

    Injuries played a big factor in this result. Arizona was missing Justin Pugh, a key member of the interior offensive line, as well as Rondale Moore, who was set to become a big factor in the offense. It seemed as though both were close to playing against the Chiefs, so they might be back this week. If so, the Cardinals will have more success moving the chains against a Raider defense that has holes in their linebacking corps and secondary.

    While the Raiders figure to struggle in coverage, they’ll be better in run support. They just put the clamps on Austin Ekeler, and they’ll be able to do the same to James Conner.

    LAS VEGAS OFFENSE: The Cardinals also had problems on this side of the ball, as J.J. Watt and some members of their secondary were sidelined. It remains to be seen if Watt can return, but if he does, that’ll give Arizona a big advantage. The Raiders’ offensive line is a big weakness, so with Chandler Jones gone, Watt’s presence will be crucial in Arizona’s hope to expose it.

    Getting Trayvon Mullen back at corner will be important as well, given the Raiders’ influx in talent at receiver. Derek Carr and Davante Adams clicked immediately, so the Cardinals will need all hands on deck to slow him down. They already figure to have a big problem containing Darren Waller, given their inability to stop Travis Kelce last week.

    The Raiders will be looking to get Josh Jacobs going as well. They were in a big hole early last week, so Jacobs didn’t receive an adequate workload. There will be more opportunities for him against the Cardinals, especially if Watt is sidelined.

    RECAP: The injury report will be crucial for the Cardinals. They had severe problems on both sides of the ball last week, resulting in a blowout loss to the Chiefs. They’ll continue to struggle if they’re missing countless players, but they’ll definitely perform better if they get some starters back in action.

    Watt is the most important player for me. If he returns, he’ll be able to rattle Carr behind the Raiders’ poor offensive line, giving the Cardinals a chance to pull the upset.

    Check back later in the week to see where I’m going with this pick. I anticipate being on Arizona, perhaps heavily, if the state of its roster looks much different than it did in Week 1. If the Cardinals are healthier, we’ll be getting incredible line value with them because the advance spread on this game was Las Vegas -3. The line moved three points, from one key number to the next, because of how horrible Arizona looked, but there was certainly a reason for that.

    THURSDAY THOUGHTS: Some sharp money has come in on the Cardinals, though they may think twice after seeing Arizona’s injury report. Things currently do not look promising for them, but it’s still early in the week.

    SATURDAY NOTES: Arizona’s injury situation seems much better. Rondale Moore is still out, and Jalen Thompson could miss this game, but J.J. Watt, Justin Pugh and Trayvon Mullen all practiced multiple times during the week. Meanwhile, the Raiders will be without starting center Andre James, top linebacker Denzel Perryman, and talented safety Trevon Moehrig. I’m going to increase my unit count and attempt to locate the best +6.

    SUNDAY MORNING NOTES: The Cardinals are my favorite pick today, but I’ll be looking for a +6. J.J. Watt will play, but he’ll be on a pitch count.

    FINAL THOUGHTS: Good news for the Cardinals: While Trayvon Mullen is out, Jalen Thompson will play. Also, J.J. Watt and Justin Pugh will both return to action. I want +6, and the best vig is for -120 at Bookmaker and Bovada. The sharps bet on Arizona at +6 earlier in the week.





    The Motivation. Edge: None.
    No edge found.


    The Spread. Edge: Cardinals.

    WalterFootball.com Calculated Spread: Raiders -3.5.
    Westgate Advance Point Spread: Raiders -3.
    Computer Model: Raiders -2.
    DVOA Spread: .






    The Vegas. Edge: None.
    People have given up on Arizona.

    Percentage of money on Las Vegas: 53% (111,000 bets)


    The Trends. Edge: Cardinals.
  • Raiders are 14-31 ATS as home favorites since November 2005.
  • Opening Line: Raiders -3.5.
  • Opening Total: 51.5.
  • Weather: Dome.



  • Week 2 NFL Pick: Raiders 34, Cardinals 31
    Cardinals +6 -120 (5 Units) – Bookmaker/Bovada — Correct; +$500
    Moneyline: Cardinals +190 (1 Unit) – BetUS/Bovada/FanDuel — Correct; +$190
    Over 51.5 (0 Units) — Correct; $0
    Cardinals 29, Raiders 23




    Chicago Bears (1-0) at Green Bay Packers (0-1)
    Line: Packers by 10. Total: 41.5.

    Sunday, Sept. 18, 8:20 PM


    The Matchup. Edge: Packers.

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    GREEN BAY OFFENSE: I liked the Packers early last week, but I switched to the Vikings by Saturday. This was my only pick change of the week. The reason was that Green Bay was without both of its offensive tackles, David Bakhtiari and Elgton Jenkins. Because they were out of the lineup, Aaron Rodgers had absolutely no time to throw. The Packers, as a consequence, were limited to only seven points.

    The Packers’ outlook in this game depends on the availability of the tackles. If one can return, Rodgers will have more of an opportunity to locate his new receivers downfield. Given the state of his receiving corps, he needs all the time he can get.

    Of course, Rodgers will make sure Aaron Jones and A.J. Dillon will receive as many touches as possible. The Packers should have some success on the ground; Elijah Mitchell was looking good against the Bears last week until he suffered an injury.

    CHICAGO OFFENSE: The Bears won last week, but it was a sham victory. They mustered no offense until a broken play on the Dante Pettis touchdown. They tallied just 204 net yards of offense, averaging a meager 3.6 yards per play (compared to 4.9 for San Francisco). There’s no way they would have prevailed in perfect conditions, or if Trey Lance didn’t make a myriad of errors.

    The reason the Bears struggled to move the chains was because their dreadful offensive line couldn’t protect against the San Francisco pass rush. The Bears will have the same problem in this matchup, as Green Bay has plenty of players who will be able to hound Justin Fields. I also imagine that the Packers’ defensive coordinator will shore up his abysmal coverages that allowed Justin Jefferson to get wide open on every single play.

    RECAP: This is a situation where we’ll need to see the injury report. If both Bakhtiari and Jenkins are out again, I’ll have no interest in betting on such a large favorite with severe issues. The Bears are terrible, but they’ll have an opportunity to cover the spread if Green Bay is hindered by a skeleton crew offensive line.

    Conversely, if the Packers have at least one tackle returning to action, I’ll be betting heavily on them. I love wagering on elite quarterbacks coming off a loss, and Rodgers has a spectacular track record in that department; he’s 35-15 against the spread after a defeat. It’s great in general to get a good team coming off an embarrassing loss. The Packers were in a similar situation last year after laying an egg versus the Saints in Week 1. They came back and covered a big number versus the Lions in Week 2 on national TV.

    THURSDAY THOUGHTS: There appears to be good news concerning the injuries to Green Bay’s tackles. Both practiced on a limited basis Wednesday, so it sounds as if they’ll return to action this week.

    SATURDAY NOTES: It looks like we’ll be betting on the Packers because Elgton Jenkins is certainly back after practicing fully on Friday. David Bakhtiari is less certain; he missed Thursday’s practice, but was limited on Friday.

    SUNDAY MORNING NOTES: We’re waiting on David Bakhtiari news. Bakhtiari being active would bump this up to five units.

    FINAL THOUGHTS: The sharps haven’t weighed in on this game, but I love the Packers. They’re getting Elgton Jenkins, Jon Runyan Jr. and Allen Lazard back. David Bakhtiari won’t play, but those other three players are good enough. The best line is -10 -110 at both Bookmaker and BetUS.





    The Motivation. Edge: Packers.
    Aaron Rodgers is coming off a loss.


    The Spread. Edge: None.

    WalterFootball.com Calculated Spread: Packers -10.5.
    Westgate Advance Point Spread: Packers -10.
    Computer Model: Packers -10.
    DVOA Spread: .






    The Vegas. Edge: None.
    Equal action.

    Percentage of money on Chicago: 58% (108,000 bets)


    The Trends. Edge: Packers.
  • History: Packers have won 15 of the last 17 meetings.
  • Aaron Rodgers is 120-80 ATS since 2009.
  • Packers are 58-34 ATS in divisional games since 2006.
  • Aaron Rodgers is 35-15 ATS after a loss (13-7 ATS as a favorite of 7.5+).
  • Opening Line: Packers -10.
  • Opening Total: 44.5.
  • Weather: Cloudy, 70 degrees. Light wind.



  • Week 2 NFL Pick: Packers 27, Bears 10
    Packers -10 (4 Units) – Bookmaker/BetUS — Correct; +$400
    Under 41.5 (0 Units) — Correct; $0
    Packers 27, Bears 10




    Tennessee Titans (0-1) at Buffalo Bills (1-0)
    Line: Bills by 10. Total: 47.5.

    Monday, Sept. 19, 7:15 PM


    The Matchup. Edge: None.

    Here’s the Top Stocks to Buy page, where I told you about GameStop two years ago and then AMC. It will be updated once per week, or sooner if there is any emergency news.

    BUFFALO OFFENSE: Outside of one mistake, Josh Allen was unstoppable in the opener. Battling the defensive stalwart Rams, Allen resembled Peyton Manning. The Rams had no answer for him despite possessing incredible defensive talent.

    If the Rams couldn’t slow down Allen, how will anyone? The Titans had a great defense heading into the season, but took a huge hit when Harold Landry was ruled out for the year. I still like Tennessee’s ability to get to the quarterback, especially with Jeffery Simmons manhandling interior defensive linemen, but this matchup would have been more difficult for Allen if Landry were on the field.

    Allen has so many weapons, so he’ll be able to target Stefon Diggs, Gabriel Davis, Isaiah McKenzie, Jamison Crowder and Dawson Knox when the pocket is clean. Simmons will be a problem at times, but Tennessee’s cornerbacks won’t be able to deal with all of those dynamic targets.

    TENNESSEE OFFENSE: The Bills have some great defensive players, as the Rams learned last Thursday night. Von Miller was a tremendous upgrade on the edge for a pass rush that was already ranked No. 1 in pressure rate. Miller put heavy heat on Matthew Stafford throughout the entire evening.

    The Rams couldn’t adjust to a more run-heavy attack because of their poor situation at running back. The Titans don’t have such a liability. Derrick Henry can dominate a matchup like this. Buffalo struggled to stop the run last year, and that could once again be the case versus a power attack.

    Henry’s great running will be able to open some opportunities for Ryan Tannehill and his new receiving corps. Tannehill is bound to be worse without A.J. Brown, but he looked comfortable throwing to rookies Kyle Phillips and Treylon Burks. Tannehill will also have better protection from Miller, as Taylor Lewan will be shielding his blind side instead of Joseph Noteboom.

    RECAP: Everyone and their evil stepmother are on the Bills. The advance line was Buffalo -7.5, but because the Bills’ impressive win over the Rams, and the Titans’ loss to the Giants, this line has risen to double digits.

    I’d gladly take the line value with Tennessee. The Titans can shorten this game with Henry and play good enough defense to limit Buffalo enough to remain within single digits. Mike Vrabel is terrific in the role of an underdog, and I expect a better effort from his team after losing to the Giants. There’s no shame in suffering a defeat to an improved New York team, yet the public doesn’t recognize that. They think this is easy money, but I don’t believe that to be the case.

    THURSDAY THOUGHTS: Nothing new here. The Titans are still the play for me, barring some major injury developments.

    SATURDAY NOTES: I’m increasing my unit count. The Bills could be missing two defensive tackles, including Ed Oliver, and it sounds like Gabriel Davis may not play. A banged-up team shouldn’t be favored by this many points, and the Bills could be in a flat spot after a big win versus the Rams and before a tough battle against the Dolphins.

    SUNDAY MORNING NOTES: No one wants any part of the Titans, but I do. The Bills are banged up, and they’ll probably be flat.

    FINAL THOUGHTS: Gabriel Davis is out, as are two defensive tackles for Buffalo, including Ed Oliver. I like the Titans to keep this close. The best line is the standard +10 -110 at Bovada. The sharps haven’t touched this game.





    The Motivation. Edge: Titans.
    The Bills are coming off a huge statement win, while the Titans lost at home to the Giants.


    The Spread. Edge: Titans.

    WalterFootball.com Calculated Spread: Bills -8.
    Westgate Advance Point Spread: Bills -7.5.
    Computer Model: Bills -12.
    DVOA Spread: .






    The Vegas. Edge: Titans.
    No surprise here.

    Percentage of money on Buffalo: 62% (286,000 bets)


    The Trends. Edge: Titans.
  • Mike Vrabel is 18-6 ATS as an underdog of 3+ points.
  • Opening Line: Bills -9.5.
  • Opening Total: 49.5.
  • Weather: Partly cloudy, 67 degrees. Light wind.



  • Week 2 NFL Pick: Bills 26, Titans 20
    Titans +10 (4 Units) – Bovada — Incorrect; -$440
    Under 47.5 (0 Units) — Incorrect; $0
    Bills 41, Titans 7




    Minnesota Vikings (1-0) at Philadelphia Eagles (1-0)
    Line: Eagles by 2.5. Total: 49.

    Monday, Sept. 19, 8:30 PM


    The Matchup. Edge: Eagles.

    This week on ESPN, we’re going to have awful announcers calling the shots instead the great preseason homers like Kevin Reilly, Ron Wolfley and Don Tollefson, inept ESPN guys Emmitt, Herman Edwards, and aloof people like Jay Cutler. Here’s what it would sound like if some of these dudes (and some special guests) were calling this game:

    Reilly: Welcome to the greatest city in the United States, no, the world, no the galaxy, no the universe! We are live in the magical place of Philadelphia to watch my Philadelphia Eagles, who are going to win the Super Bowl this year, go against the crappy Minnesota Vikings who we crushed to a pulp in the NFC Championship when we won the Super Bowl the last time! This is going to be a repeat of last time, and the Vikings are going to go home and cry to mommy, which I wish I could do after the girl I tried to talk to rejected me, but I got disowned by Mother!

    Emmitt: Jalen Reilly, I know you very excitement because the Philadelphia Eagle your favorite team, but you need to come down. The Viking are a good team, but correct me if I right but Dalvin Cock not play for the Viking in the NFL Championship you mention earlier. The Viking career have improve ever since he add that great running back to his roster. And with Alexander Mattingley, the Viking have a lot of great running back on his death chart.

    Reilly: First of all, Emmitt, my name is not Jalen Reilly. I would love to share a name with the greatest quarterback in the NFL, Jalen Hurts, and I would even like for him to take me out on a date to a restaurant if I had the money, but my name is Kevin. Second, I don’t care about Dalvin Cock. I never even heard of him, or Alexander Mattingley. The Vikings don’t even have a chance. I didn’t even put bombs in their locker room because they suck so much that they’ll lose 49-0!

    Tollefson: Kevin, I can see you’re a novice. You don’t ever not want to use bombs. The women I’ve kidnapped to cook and clean naked for me behave because they know I may or may not have bombs planted in their rooms. If they don’t listen to me, kaboom! They blow up, but I mean it with love.

    Reilly: You’re right, Tolly. I don’t know what I was thinking. I should have planted bombs just in case, but we all know the Vikings don’t stand a chance. Besides, I have my Jalen Hurts bobblehead doll here for good luck! I’ll show it to you guys. Where is it…? I can’t find it in my bag. New Daddy, have you seen my Jalen Hurts bobblehead doll?

    Jay Cutler: You mean that toy thing? That old lady with the new baby I live with sold it at the yard sale. She said she needed more room in the house even after kicking out her loser son.

    Reilly: What!? How dare she throw out my Jalen Hurts bobblehead doll!? That’s my most prized possession! I need to go buy it back!

    Adam Schefter: Think again, Kevin. I have some breaking news that has been authorized by Jerry Jones. Kevin, we have the name of the man who purchased the Jalen Hurts bobblehead doll at Kevin Reilly’s mom’s yard sale. I’m reporting that the name of that man is Adam Schefter. Yes, it was me, Kevin. I wore my mask to make sure I was safe from Covid, and I spent my last paycheck to acquire this item, Kevin, and no, you may not have it back.

    Reilly: What!? New Daddy, help me!

    Jay Cutler: Wait, what were we talking about again?

    Reilly: New Daddy is useless as usual! Mr. President, can you tell Adam Schefter to give the Jalen Hurts bobblehead doll back to meeeee?

    Joe Biden: Dolls are a great gift for any girlfriend. When I was showering with my daughter, Ashley, and she was admiring my hairy legs, I said, “Ashley, what do you think about me giving a doll to my new girlfriend?” And Ashley says, “George, your hairy legs are a different color in the water,” and I says, “Susan, you’re right about that, and I’ll stock the shelves with spaghetti sauce while listening to the record player, but what about the doll?” Then, my daughter says, “Any girl would love to have a doll, Peter.” And I says, “Well, my new girlfriend has a day off from kindergarten tomorrow, so I’ll give her the doll and then sniff her hair and suck the soul out of her.” Why do you think I suck kids’ blood!?

    Donald Trump: Excuse me, excuse me, did anyone hear what Joe Biden said? He said he was listening to the record player, but according to these documents I have in my safe, Joe Biden doesn’t have a record player in his home, and frankly, it’s a total disaster that he would even say he has a record player. Excuse me, excuse me, frankly, anyone with a record player is a total disgrace, believe me, I know a lot about record players, more than anyone else knows, at least that’s what I was told, excuse me, excuse me, the only person to listen to record players is Elizabeth Warren. I call her … Pocahontas. Great nickname, that Pocahontas. I invented that nickname, which is why it’s the best, everyone agrees, believe me. But Pocahontas Warren, what a total disgrace. I’m more Native American than Elizabeth Warren, and I’m not even Native American!

    Wolfley: DONALD, YOU ARE WRONG. YOUR DOCUMENTS ARE OUT OF DATE BECAUSE THE PURPLE ALIENS WHO HAVE SAUCE ON THEIR BALLS TOLD ME THAT JOE BIDEN BOUGHT A RECORD PLAYER AT KEVIN’S MOM’S YARD SALE.

    Reilly: Shut up, idiots! Will no one sell me a Jalen Hurts bobblehead doll? I have no money anymore, but I will work for it. But I can’t do anything that makes me sweat because my asthma will act up. Mr. Goodell, can I work for you?

    Goodell: Greetings, fellow hu-man, I heard you are seeking employment in exchange for monetary compensation. I have employment opportunities available in exchange for monetary compensation. For the task of telling everyone how great the humanoid known as Roger Goodell is, Roger Goodell will pay – randomizing – 9.06 cents per hour.

    Reilly: Oh, come on! Why couldn’t I get better RNG!? I can’t ever buy a Jalen Hurts bobblehead with that salary!

    Charles Davis: Kevin, looks like you’re talking about random number generators, Kevin. Let’s discuss some random number generators, Kevin. How about random.org, Kevin? What about Random Result, Kevin? What do you think about Random Number Generator, Kevin? Let’s have a fire-side chat about Number Generator, Kevin. Let’s switch gears to Random Picker, Kevin. I’d like to hear your thoughts on Raffle Draw Number Generator, Kevin. On second thought, Kevin, I don’t want to hear about your thoughts because you are a loser, Kevin. I didn’t need a random number generator to come up with that accurate description, Kevin.

    Reilly: F**K YOU, CHARLES DAVIS! I WILL MAKE SURE THAT ONE DAY EVERYONE KNOWS YOU’RE A LOSER, BUT FIRST I NEED TO GET BACK MY JALEN HURTS BOBBLEHEAD DOLL! We’ll be back after this!

    MINNESOTA OFFENSE: The Vikings looked unstoppable against the Packers. Justin Jefferson was a monster, though it certainly helped that the Packers inexplicably left him wide open on so many plays.

    It’s highly doubtful that something similar will happen against the Eagles. Philadelphia has two shutdown cornerbacks in Darius Slay and James Bradberry. It’s impossible to stop Jefferson, but Slay and Bradberry can slow him down enough to limit the Minnesota offense, especially if Kirk Cousins is seeing tons of pressure from a ferocious Philadelphia defensive front.

    The Eagles also figure to be strong against the run this year, thanks to numerous upgrades they made to their front. This will obviously be key against Dalvin Cook.

    PHILADELPHIA OFFENSE: Jefferson wasn’t the only receiver in this matchup to post terrific Week 1 numbers. A.J. Brown also had a fantastic debut for the Eagles. Battling the Lions wasn’t exactly the most difficult matchup, but it’s not like Brown has a tough task ahead of himself in this game. Minnesota’s cornerbacks are liabilities, but they weren’t tested last week by Green Bay’s pedestrian receiving corps. Both Brown and Devonta Smith could dominate this game.

    Aaron Rodgers never really had a chance to target his receivers all that often because of relentless Minnesota pressure, but the Packers were missing their two starting tackles. Philadelphia’s offensive line is one of the league’s best blocking units, so Jalen Hurts will have plenty of time to locate his dynamic weapons.

    Hurts, by the way, also figures to have another big game as a scrambler. The Eagles have so many weapons that it’ll be difficult for the opposition to key in on Hurts’ mobility.

    RECAP: I love the Eagles. Of course, you know that. I bet them to win the Super Bowl at 33/1 odds, and I’m happy with what I saw in Week 1. Beating the Lions by “only” three may not seem impressive to the common bettor, but Philadelphia maintained a double-digit lead versus an underrated Detroit squad for most of the afternoon. In fact, I’d say the Eagles’ victory over Detroit was more impressive than what the Vikings accomplished against the Packers. That may sound asinine at first, but keep in mind that Green Bay could not function offensively without their two starting tackles. The Lions would have defeated that Packer squad.

    With that in mind, the public is making a horrible overreaction to what they saw in Week 1. All I’m hearing is “ZOMG JUSTIN JEFFERSON” and “THEY HELDED ROGERS TO 7 POINTS!” but it’s not that simple. Jefferson was great, but as mentioned, the Eagles have terrific cornerbacks who can slow him down. And Rodgers being held to seven points is irrelevant, given the state of Green Bay’s offensive line. The Eagles have an elite blocking unit, so they’ll have much more success offensively, allowing them to expose Minnesota’s weakness, which is cornerback.

    Given that the public doesn’t recognize what is really happening, we’re getting some nice line value. I believe this spread should be Philadelphia -3.5 or -4, yet the spread opened only -1. It’s now -2.5 despite tons of public action on Philadelphia, but still, going through the key number of three with the superior team is incredible.

    If I haven’t sold you on the Eagles yet, consider that by betting them, you get to fade Cousins in a prime-time game. That itself must be worth at least three units, right?

    In all seriousness, this is my September NFL Pick of the Month. I love laying just one point with the better team playing at home, all while fading public overreaction.

    THURSDAY THOUGHTS: This line dropped a half point for some reason. Perhaps there’s an injury we don’t know about yet, but it would take a lot for me to get off betting the Eagles as my Pick of the Month.

    SATURDAY NOTES: Both teams are relatively healthy, so I have no injury update. I still love the Eagles.

    SUNDAY MORNING NOTES: No update. I don’t expect any injury news.

    LOCKED IN: We haven’t gotten the inactives yet, but this line is trending toward -3 in some sportsbooks, thanks to sharp action. The best line is -2.5 -120 at FanDuel, so I’m going to lock this in before it disappears.

    FINAL THOUGHTS: As expected, there were no injury surprises. The best line continues to be Philadelphia -2.5 -120 at FanDuel. The sharps are on the Eagles at every number below -3.





    The Motivation. Edge: Eagles.
    Kirk Cousins in a prime-time game.


    The Spread. Edge: Eagles.

    WalterFootball.com Calculated Spread: Eagles -4.
    Westgate Advance Point Spread: Eagles -2.5.
    Computer Model: Eagles -1.
    DVOA Spread: .






    The Vegas. Edge: None.
    The public has fallen in love with the Vikings.

    Percentage of money on Philadelphia: 53% (298,000 bets)


    The Trends. Edge: None.
  • Opening Line: Eagles -3.
  • Opening Total: 49.5.
  • Weather: Cloudy, 77 degrees. Light wind.



  • Week 2 NFL Pick: Eagles 34, Vikings 24
    Eagles -2.5 -120 (8 Units – September NFL Pick of the Month) – FanDuel — Correct; +$800
    Over 49 (0 Units) — Incorrect; $0
    Eagles 24, Vikings 7






    week 2 NFL Picks – Early Games
    Chargers at Chiefs, Jets at Browns, Redskins at Lions, Buccaneers at Saints, Panthers at Giants, Patriots at Steelers, Colts at Jaguars, Dolphins at Ravens




    Prop/Teaser/Parlay Picks
    A list of some of my favorite team/player prop picks this week
    (Offense & defensive ROY picks to be counted whenever winners are announced.) Picks carried over on a week-to-week basis will be in black.


    Prop/teaser/parlay picks posted in Week 2 NFL Picks – Early Games



    2024 NFL Mock Draft - April 16


    NFL Power Rankings - Feb. 22


    Fantasy Football Rankings - Feb. 19


    NFL Picks - Feb. 12




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    Career NFL Picks of the Month: 46-34-1 (57.5t%)



    My Team-by-Team ATS Record
    This section shows how well I do when picking each team this year. The purpose is to see how well I read each team. Pushes are not displayed. Winning/losing streak in parentheses.

    Cowboys: 8-9
    Bears: 11-4
    Bucs: 6-11
    49ers: 10-7
    Eagles: 7-7
    Lions: 9-8
    Falcons: 8-9
    Cardinals: 8-9
    Giants: 7-9
    Packers: 5-12
    Panthers: 8-9
    Rams: 8-9
    Redskins: 14-3
    Vikings: 6-9
    Saints: 10-7
    Seahawks: 7-9
    Bills: 9-7
    Bengals: 12-5
    Colts: 7-10
    Broncos: 9-6
    Dolphins: 6-11
    Browns: 11-5
    Jaguars: 13-4
    Chargers: 8-9
    Jets: 8-9
    Ravens: 11-6
    Texans: 5-12
    Chiefs: 5-10
    Patriots: 7-9
    Steelers: 11-6
    Titans: 9-8
    Raiders: 6-9
    Divisional: 50-35 (2011-22: 558-526)
    2x Game Edge: 36-24 (2011-22: 363-361)
    2x Motivation Edge: 32-36 (2011-22: 478-405)
    2x Spread Edge: 41-40 (2011-22: 197-168)
    2x Vegas Edge: 41-38 (2011-22: 407-406)
    2x Trend Edge: 15-13 (2011-22: 306-279)
    Double Edge: 17-13 (2011-22: 190-172)
    Triple Edge: 1-1 (2011-22: 32-36)

    2003 Preseason: 3 | 4 | 5
    2003 Season: 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 | 16 | 17 | 18 | 20 | XXXVIII
    2004 Preseason: 1 | 2 | 3 | 4
    2004 Season: 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 | 16 | 17 | 18 | 19 | 20 | XXXIX
    2005 Preseason: 1 | 2 | 3 | 4
    2005 Season: 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 | 16 | 17 | 18 | 19 | 20 | XL
    2006 Preseason: 1 | 2 | 3 | 4
    2006 Season: 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 | 16 | 17 | 18 | 19 | 20 | XLI
    2007 Preseason: 1 | 2 | 3 | 4
    2007 Season: 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 | 16 | 17 | 18 | 19 | 20 | XLII |
    2008 Preseason: 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 |
    2008 Season: 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 | 16 | 17 | 18 | 19 | 20 | XLIII |
    2009 Season: 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 | 16 | 17 | 18 | 19 | 20 | XLIV |
    2010 Preseason: 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 |
    2010 Season: 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 | 16 | 17 | 18 | 19 | 20 | XLV |
    2011 Preseason: 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 |
    2011 Season: 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 | 16 | 17 | 18 | 19 | 20 | XLVI |
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