NFL Picks Against the Spread: Week 2, 2022

Los Angeles Chargers (1-0) at Kansas City Chiefs (1-0)
Line: Chiefs by 4.5. Total: 54.
Thursday, Sept. 15, 8:15 PM


The Matchup. Edge: None.

Week 1 Analysis: We had a nice start to the season! I’ll break down all the multi-unit picks each week:

Rams, 3 units (loss): Thursday night was ugly. I’ve never seen a Sean McVay-coached team looked so unprepared Week 1, but after talking to someone and then digging into it, I came to realize that McVay had never played against a team in Week 1 that went on to finish better than 6-10.

Ravens, 4 units (win): It’s always nice to get an easy one.

Browns, 4 units (win): The Browns had control of most of this game, though things got tense at the end.

49ers, 5 units (loss): Trey Lance sucks. He was so bad. The 49ers dominated this game in yardage for most of the afternoon, but Lance’s poor throws prevented the 49ers from winning in a blowout. That said, it was lame that the 49ers had so many injuries by kickoff. I made the pick in July, so I didn’t know that would happen.

Texans, 3 units (win): I thought about going higher on Houston, but I chickened out because the Texans could have been terrible. They kind of were, despite the cover.

Jaguars, 3 units (loss): The Jaguars killed themselves with dumb errors in this game. I expected them to be better.

Chiefs, 3 units (win): This was a nice unit change from zero to three. I made this switch because Arizona had so many injuries.

Giants, 5 units (win): I was yelling at the TV when Daniel Jones threw an interception in the red zone. Losing on a bad beat like that in Week 1 would’ve been painful.

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KANSAS CITY OFFENSE: So much for the demise of the Chiefs’ offense! It seemed like everyone expected them to take a step, or even a giant leap backward after losing Tyreek Hill to the Dolphins, but they were explosive versus Arizona. Patrick Mahomes fired five touchdowns, and the team punted only once before garbage time.

I’m very much a believer in Mahomes with his Hill-less supporting cast, but it must be noted that the Cardinals had a skeleton-crew defense that was ravaged by injuries. I don’t think Arizona could have stopped a powder puff team in Week 1, so this will be a much more difficult test. The Chargers, possessing an improved pass rush with Khalil Mack lining up on the other side of Joey Bosa, put heavy pressure on Derek Carr last week, forcing him into three interceptions. Mahomes will definitely feel some heat from the Charger front seven.

The Chiefs can counter this pressure by establishing the run. The Raiders couldn’t do this versus the Chargers last week because of the early deficit, but if Andy Reid remembers the rushing portion of his playbook, he can keep the chains moving in order to keep Justin Herbert off the field.

SAN ANGELES OFFENSE: The Chargers looked great on this side of the ball as well last week, but they could be missing Keenan Allen, who injured his hamstring in the season opener. It’ll be difficult for Allen to return on such short rest.

That said, the Chargers should still be able to score plenty of points without Allen. They have a terrific offensive line, so unlike the Cardinals, they’ll be able to protect their quarterback against an underrated Kansas City pass rush. With time in the pocket, Justin Herbert will be able to locate Mike Williams for some big gains. I expect Williams to rebound from last week’s dud performance.

Austin Ekeler should also be a bigger factor this week. The Chiefs linebackers can be beaten by receiving backs, so the Chargers should get back to using Ekeler in the passing game. I’m a fan of Gerald Everett in this contest as well.

RECAP: I like the underdog in this matchup. These teams are even, in my NFL Power Rankings, so with the Chiefs getting one point for home-field advantage, this line should be Kansas City -1. Getting the key number of three with the Chargers is huge, especially considering that both of their battles against the Chiefs went down to the wire last year.

I’m not crazy about this pick, but I’m willing to bet a unit or two on the Chargers. I think there’s a big of an overreaction to the Chiefs’ blowout win over Arizona, which pushed this spread off the look-ahead number of -3. Beating the injury-ravaged Cardinals, even in a blowout, was not overly impressive, so I don’t think this line should have moved at all.

Our Week 2 NFL Picks will be posted all day Tuesday. Follow @walterfootball for updates.

THURSDAY THOUGHTS: There was sharp money on the Chargers at +4.5, bringing this line down to +4. It makes sense, as this spread is too high. Keenan Allen is out, but the Chargers should still be able to keep this game close. Besides, the Chiefs also have some injured players, including cornerback Trent McDuffie and their kicker, Harrison Butker. I’m going to lock in the only +4.5 I see, which is at FanDuel, and I’m going to increase the unit count to three.

FINAL THOUGHTS: The sharps are on the Chargers at +4.5. All of the +4.5s are gone, from what I can see, and this line is now +4 across the board, save for FanDuel, where it’s +3.5. Part of this sharp movement might be because J.C. Jackson will play for the Chargers. That’s a big boost, but I liked the Chargers without him anyway.

Miami Dolphins (1-0) at Baltimore Ravens (1-0)
Line: Ravens by 3.5. Total: 44.
Sunday, Sept. 18, 1:00 PM


The Matchup. Edge: None.

My overrated-underrated feature was posted in this spot the past couple of years. I thought it would be better if there was less clutter on this page, so I set up a new NFL Overrated and Underrated Teams page that will be updated every Monday. I have overrated and underrated teams listed there, and some may shock you!

BALTIMORE OFFENSE: The Ravens beat up on the Jets, maintaining a 24-3 lead before garbage time. However, it wasn’t easy, despite what I wrote in the opening paragraphs of this page. It was a close affair for a while, thanks to some injuries on the offensive line. Already down Ronnie Stanley, Baltimore lost JaWuan James to injury in the opening half. The Jets were able to swarm Lamar Jackson, who didn’t run as much as usual, perhaps because he wants to preserve himself until he signs his mega contract.

Jackson will need to use his legs more often in this contest, especially if he’s missing multiple tackles once again. If he’s reluctant to do so, it’ll be difficult for the Ravens to move the chains because they don’t have much going for them outside of Mark Andrews and Rashod Bateman. Andrews should have a nice game, but Bateman will be locked down by Xavien Howard. There’s Devin Duvernay, who caught two touchdowns last week, but that was a fluky result because he logged just four receptions.

The Ravens also don’t have much of a running game. Kenyan Drake got the start for the injured J.K. Dobbins, who doesn’t seem close to playing off his torn ACL. Drake doesn’t stand much of a chance against his original team.

MIAMI OFFENSE: The Ravens also have injury concerns on this side of the ball. Already down Marcus Peters, who is struggling to come off his torn ACL, Baltimore lost Kyle Fuller for the season to the same injury. Unless Peters can play this week, the Ravens won’t have anything aside from Marlon Humphrey to cover all of Miami’s dynamic receivers.

Tua Tagovailoa showed an ability to get the ball to these receivers in a difficult matchup last week. He’ll have an easier time against Baltimore’s injury-ravaged cornerback group. It’ll be up to Tagovailoa to avoid turnovers, which he was able to do last week. That said, he was very fortunate he didn’t lose a fumble. Also, a potential interception of his thrown into double coverage was dropped.

One issue for the Dolphins is that they won’t be able to establish the run at all. They’re not using Raheem Mostert enough, though Chase Edmonds will have some nice gains as a receiver out of the backfield, which is what Michael Carter and Breece Hall were able to do versus Baltimore last week.

RECAP: The injuries are beginning to pile up for the Ravens. They could be missing two cornerbacks in this contest if Peters is sidelined again. Two tackles might be out as well if neither Stanley nor James return. If Baltimore were completely healthy, I would consider them likely to cover this spread, but the Ravens are too banged up to beat the number, especially with the top key number of three out of play.

I thought this line was a bit too high anyway. I made this number Baltimore -2.5, so I’ll be picking the Dolphins. Whether I bet this game or not will depend on the injury report.

THURSDAY THOUGHTS: There’s a chance the Dolphins could be without both of their tackles this week. If so, not only will I switch my pick; I’ll bet several units on the Ravens!

SATURDAY NOTES: The injury report is pretty nuts. The Dolphins might be missing both starting tackles. Austin Jackson was already placed on injured reserve, while Terron Armstead was D-L-L in practice. That’s nothing compared to the Ravens though. Ronnie Stanley is doubtful, while several cornerbacks could be sidelined. Kyle Fuller is on injured reserve, while Marcus Peters, who was out in Week 1, was downgraded in Friday’s practice from full to limited. Even worse, Marlon Humphrey missed Friday’s practice, as did top reserve Brandon Stephens. It’s possible Baltimore could be down four cornerbacks versus Miami’s receiving corps. I’ll definitely be betting on Miami if that’s the case.

FINAL THOUGHTS: I was hoping for some good injury news to open up a possible bet, but I’m not seeing it. Both Terron Armstead and Marcus Peters will play, so I’m not seeing an edge either way. I’m 50-50 on this game. I’ll stick with the Dolphins, but I could easily be talked into picking Baltmore for office pool purposes. The sharps haven’t touched this game.

New York Jets (0-1) at Cleveland Browns (1-0)
Line: Browns by 6.5. Total: 38.5.
Sunday, Sept. 18, 1:00 PM


The Matchup. Edge: Browns.

VEGAS UPDATE: I’ll be posting how the Vegas sportsbooks have done the previous week in this spot. The highest-bet sides were 34-42 in 2020 and 48-37 in 2021. The highest bet sides were just 1-3 to open the season.

Here are the teams getting the most bets last week:

Ravens -7

Broncos -6.5

Saints -5.5

Panthers -2.5

Here are the teams getting the most bets this week:

Bengals -7

Bills -10

Vikings +1.5

Seahawks +9

Chiefs -3.5

None of this should be surprising. The Chiefs, Bills and Vikings impressed the public, and everyone wants to fade the Cowboys and 49ers.

CLEVELAND OFFENSE: The Browns were winning for most of the afternoon versus the Panthers, but the coaching staff was very close to making a quarterback change. Thanks to numerous missed throws, Jacoby Brissett was nearly pulled in favor of Joshua Dobbs, who was warming up on the sideline. Brissett performed better as the afternoon progressed, but it wasn’t pretty.

Brissett was battling a tough Carolina pass defense, so his matchup will be easier this week, especially if Jack Conklin returns from injury. The Jets have an improved pass rush, but that won’t be a factor against a Cleveland offensive line with Conklin stationed on the right side. With ample time in the pocket, Brissett will have all the time he needs to locate Amari Cooper and Donovan Peoples-Jones for decent gains, even against a Jets corner duo that performed well last week.

Of course, Brissett will continue to lean on the running game. The Jets are better versus the run than the Panthers, but they also possess miserable linebackers who won’t be able to cover Kareem Hunt as a receiver out of the backfield.

NEW YORK OFFENSE: Brissett played like Joe Montana compared to Joe Flacco last week. Flacco was predictably dreadful despite battling a defense missing a starting cornerback. His final stats look fine, but much of what he did occurred in garbage time.

The incompetence of the Jets’ offense wasn’t completely Flacco’s fault, as he was down two tackles. That’ll continue to be the case, which is basically a death sentence against a ferocious Cleveland pass rush. Myles Garrett was incredible last week, and he’ll continue to play at an extremely high level against George Fant.

I don’t see how the Jets will move the chains effectively prior to garbage time. The Browns have a talented back seven that will limit what the Jets will attempt to do in every facet of the game. This includes the rushing attack. If the Browns could stymie Christian McCaffrey, they’ll be able to deal with Michael Carter and Breece Hall.

RECAP: There are two reasons to believe why the Browns are the right side. First, they are still not being priced appropriately because sportsbooks overcompensate for injured quarterbacks. My number for this game is Cleveland -8.5, so we’re getting key numbers of six and seven. Second, the Jets are a horrible team with a terrible quarterback. I like fading such squads.

This would be a decent bet on the Browns in normal circumstances. However, I think there’s a chance Cleveland looks ahead to Thursday’s matchup against the Steelers. It’s possible that the Browns will establish a lead, only to see it disappear toward the end in garbage time because they rest their starters in anticipation of a huge divisional game in three days.

THURSDAY THOUGHTS: There might have been sharp movement to shift this line from -6 to -6.5, but I’m still not interested in betting Cleveland.

SATURDAY NOTES: The only injury concern is Jack Conklin, who missed Thursday’s practice, but was limited Friday. Either way, I don’t have a desire to bet this game.

FINAL THOUGHTS: Jack Conklin is out for the Browns, which makes me lean a bit more toward the Jets, but not enough to make me change my pick. I still have no desire to bet this game, and it doesn’t seem as though the sharps have much interest either.

Washington Redskins (1-0) at Detroit Lions (0-1)
Line: Pick. Total: 48.
Sunday, Sept. 18, 1:00 PM


The Matchup. Edge: None.

HATE MAIL: I will be posting hate mail here. This is from the NFL Power Rankings:



If he had called this Web site human s**t, I would have been offended. But I’m cool with dog s**t!

Here’s a message from a racist:



This guy’s desire to remove Native American imagery makes him sound like a conquistador.

Here’s an exchange on Twitter:



Doughy mess may have been the best compliment I’ve ever gotten!

WASHINGTON OFFENSE: Carson Wentz had a strong debut for the Redskins. Things looked dicey for a while when he threw two interceptions in the second half, but he came through in the clutch with the game-winning touchdown to Jahan Dotson.

Wentz had a nice matchup against the Jaguars, and that is once again the case versus the Lions. Detroit showed a severe inability to cover A.J. Brown last week, so it’ll have similar issues against the talented Redskin receivers. The Lions were also poor against the run, so Antonio Gibson figures to thrive again.

This all sounds great, but it doesn’t factor in the Wentz implosion factor. Wentz can be a disaster when it comes to turnovers, so I would expect him to be responsible for some back-breaking give-aways in this contest.

DETROIT OFFENSE: This game figures to be a shootout because neither defense will be able to do anything to stop the opposition. Had the Jaguars not repeatedly shot themselves in the foot with missed routine throws and dropped touchdowns versus Washington last week, they would’ve scored into the 30s. I expect the Lions to do the same.

The Redskins have numerous liabilities on this side of the ball. Their pass rush is missing Chase Young, which is putting even more pressure on a beleaguered secondary that won’t be able to cover Amon-Ra St. Brown and D.J. Chark.

Washington’s linebacking corps is a mess as well. Travis Etienne beat them for an easy touchdown last week, but Etienne dropped the ball. I don’t expect D’Andre Swift to make such a mistake. Both Swift and T.J. Hockenson will abuse this area of the Redskins’ defense.

RECAP: When I saw that the Redskins were -1 on the advance line, I was hoping for them to beat the Jaguars, and for the Lions to lose to the Eagles. I thought that under those circumstances, we’d see Detroit +3, which would be a big play for me.

Well, I got my wish. The Redskins won, and the Lions lost. And yet, this spread moved to Detroit -2.5! This is not the public suddenly realizing how good these teams are in relation to one another; this is sharp money pounding the host.

I’m glad to see that the sharps understand how good the Lions are. I think they’re one of the better teams in the NFC. They should be able to score tons of points against the Redskins, who were very lucky to beat the Jaguars last week. Jacksonville was the better team in Week 1, but it shot itself in the foot so many times that Washington was able to prevail. I expect the Lions to be much better offensively.

At any rate, I’m not happy about the line movement, and yet, I still think we’re getting spread value. My projected number is Detroit -3.5, meaning we’re getting the ultra-key number of three. I’ll be betting on the Lions for that exact unit count.

THURSDAY THOUGHTS: This spread has dropped a bit because a couple of Detroit offensive linemen haven’t practiced yet this week. This is a definite concern, so I may alter the unit count soon.

SATURDAY NOTES: Argh, I really wanted to bet the Lions, but they’re probably going to be missing every single interior offensive lineman. Frank Ragnow was ruled out, and Halapouli Vaitai is on injured reserve. Jonah Jackson missed practice Thursday and Friday. I don’t know how the Lions are going to block the Redskins. Oh, and D’Andre Swift may miss this game, too! Not only am I changing my pick; I’m going to put several units on the Redskins.

SATURDAY NOTES II: Jonathan Allen has been downgraded, which will hurt the Redskins’ chances of taking advantage of Detroit’s injuries. I may not bet this game. I’ll decide Sunday morning.

FINAL THOUGHTS: Jonathan Allen will play, while the entire interior offensive line of the Lions is officially sidelined. I’m going to be betting on the Redskins, much like the sharps are. The best line is PK -110 at both Bovada and BetUS.

Indianapolis Colts (0-0-1) at Jacksonville Jaguars (0-1)
Line: Colts by 3. Total: 43.5.
Sunday, Sept. 18, 1:00 PM


The Matchup. Edge: None.

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INDIANAPOLIS OFFENSE: The Colts produced just 20 points against the Texans, so some may look at their offense and believe that it doesn’t have the ability to score consistently. However, Indianapolis accumulated more than 500 net yards of offense in Week 1. It simply squandered so many opportunities on drives that produced zero or three points despite repeatedly ending in Jacksonville territory.

The Colts figure to have success moving the chains once again in this matchup. This will happen via Jonathan Taylor, who has a great matchup against a Jacksonville defense that allowed Antonio Gibson to look like the second coming of Marshall Faulk last week.

Indianapolis will need to get Taylor going in order to counter the lone strength of the Jaguar defense. That would be the pass rush, which can apply heat on the quarterback via Josh Allen and Travon Walker. The Colts are down two offensive linemen from a year ago, so the Jaguars will harass Matt Ryan if the opportunity presents itself.

JACKSONVILLE OFFENSE: The Jaguars certainly have the pass-rushing edge in this game, as Indianapolis’ No. 32 pressure rate from a year ago doesn’t look like it’s any better. The Colts acquired Yannick Ngakoue to help in this department, but he looked pedestrian in his 2022 debut.

Indianapolis’ lackluster pass rush will give Trevor Lawrence opportunities to thrive. Then again, Lawrence had plenty of chances last week, yet squandered all of them in the first half with some horribly missed throws. Lawrence should be able to perform better this week, however, especially against a defense with a worse pass rush than Washington’s. I expect him to connect repeatedly with Christian Kirk and Zay Jones.

The Colts may also have trouble with Jacksonville’s running backs if Shaq Leonard is sidelined again. Leonard is one of the top linebackers in the NFL, so his absence was felt last week versus Houston. His status is up in the air as of this writing.

RECAP: The Colts were favored by way too many points against Houston, especially considering that they were missing their top defensive player. Not only did they not cover the touchdown; they didn’t even beat the hapless Texans. This spread is closer to what it should be, but the Colts are still a bit inflated. I made this line Indianapolis -2, so with the +4, we’re getting the key number of three by betting on Jacksonville.

The Jaguars, who have owned the Colts of late, have a decent chance to cover. However, I’ll need to see Leonard out of the lineup to place a multi-unit bet on Jacksonville. Leonard’s absence is a huge factor in Indianapolis’ defense, and if he misses action again, Jacksonville will have a much easier time moving the chains. If he returns, the Colts will have a better chance of winning by a touchdown or more, so my unit count will depend on his status.

THURSDAY THOUGHTS: Shaq Leonard practiced fully on Wednesday, so it should surprise no one if he returns to action this week. That said, DeForest Buckner missed Wednesday’s practice, so his absence would be a nice boon for Jacksonville.

SATURDAY NOTES: The sharps have been pounding the Jaguars late in the week. Shaq Leonard is out, and with Michael Pittman Jr. missing practice Thursday and Friday, Indianapolis could be without its top two receivers. It’s going to be hot and humid in Jacksonville on Sunday, so the Colts, in their blue jerseys, could wilt in the Florida sun.

SATURDAY NOTES II: Michael Pittman Jr. is out, and the sharps have dropped this line to +3.

FINAL THOUGHTS: As mentioned, the sharps moved this line to +3, probably because of the injuries to the Colts. Jacksonville remains my top play in the early slate. The best line is +3 -105 at Bookmaker and BetUS.

Tampa Bay Buccaneers (1-0) at New Orleans Saints (0-1)
Line: Buccaneers by 3. Total: 43.5.
Sunday, Sept. 18, 1:00 PM


The Matchup. Edge: None.

If you missed it, I have an NFL Betting Props page. I’ll be adding to it as the season progresses!

Also, Confidence Pool Picks will return. They’ll be posted by Wednesday morning each week!

TAMPA BAY OFFENSE: The only way to defeat Tom Brady, without outgunning him with another elite quarterback, is to put heavy pressure on him without blitzing. Terrific signal-callers pick apart blitzing defenses so well, but if a four-man pass rush can get to them consistently, the defense will give its team a good chance to prevail.

The Cowboys utilized this strategy Sunday night, blitzing Brady only six times. They still lost, but don’t blame the defense, which limited the Buccaneers to 19 points. Tampa will have similar issues scoring in this contest, as New Orleans has a stalwart defensive front that can apply plenty of pressure on Brady, especially with the Buccaneers missing several offensive linemen due to injury.

The Saints also have the personnel to limit Brady’s dwindling arsenal. With Chris Godwin sidelined, all the Saints have to worry about are Mike Evans and Leonard Fournette. Marshon Lattimore can handle Evans, while the Saints’ strong run defense will limit Fournette.

NEW ORLEANS OFFENSE: The Saints had a sluggish start to their matchup against the Falcons, scoring on just one touchdown drive until the fourth quarter. That’s when the onslaught began, as New Orleans erased a 26-10 deficit.

Jameis Winston was brilliant to close out the game, and that could carry over into this contest. He has plenty of weapons at his disposal, so a Buccaneer secondary down a safety from the offseason could have trouble covering all of Winston’s targets.

Alvin Kamara might also have a fine performance on the ground. I was shocked to see Ezekiel Elliott have success as a rusher until the Cowboys inexplicably abandoned the run. If Elliott was able to thrive, Kamara should as well.

RECAP: There’s a very real reason the Saints have had Brady’s number, beating him in all four regular-season matchups. They’ve been able to pressure him consistently in the past without blitzing, and now it’s going to be even worse for Brady because his already-diminished offensive line will potentially be without Donovan Smith. And yet, the Buccaneers are favored by three in New Orleans.

This spread doesn’t make much sense to me. I made this number Tampa Bay -1, and I could even be talked into making this a pick ’em. People are down on the Saints right now because they watched them nearly lose to the Falcons, but New Orleans-Atlanta battles are almost always close. I think it says more about the Saints that they marched back from a 26-10 fourth-quarter deficit to prevail, and I suspect that momentum to carry over into this game.

This won’t be a huge wager, but I plan on betting the Saints as long as we’re getting +3. I’m considering locking this in, but I’d rather wait for either injury news or a potential +3.5, though I’ll be a bit surprised if the line moves in Tampa’s favor.

THURSDAY THOUGHTS: I’m disappointed in myself that I didn’t lock in the Saints +3, as I said everyone should on the podcast. There are a ton of players on the Buccaneers’ injury report.

SATURDAY NOTES: Alvin Kamara may miss this game, but the Buccaneers are in much worse shape. At receiver, Chris Godwin is out, and Julio Jones practiced just once during the week. On the offensive line, the Buccaneers were already missing two interior blockers, and now Donovan Smith is doubtful. I already liked the Saints before knowing these injuries, and now I’m even more bullish on them. Unfortunately, there is no +3 available.

FINAL THOUGHTS: The Buccaneers won’t have Donovan Smith, Chris Godwin, Julio Jones and some of their offensive linemen, which would make me love the Saints – except Alvin Kamara is out for New Orleans! The best line is New Orleans +3 -120 at BetUS and Bovada. The sharps bet the Saints at +3 earlier in the week, but other pros took the Buccaneers at -2.5 in the wake of the Kamara news.

SECOND-HALF BET: The Buccaneers’ offense hasn’t been great, but they’ve gotten very unlucky in the red zone. The Saints’ offense has been dreadful without Alvin Kamara. I like the Buccaneers -1.5 -115 at BetUS.

Carolina Panthers (0-1) at New York Giants (1-0)
Line: Panthers by 1. Total: 43.5.
Sunday, Sept. 18, 1:00 PM


The Matchup. Edge: Panthers.

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NEW YORK OFFENSE: The Giants had a nice win in Tennessee, but their offense struggled for most of the afternoon. They hit some big plays, including a couple of Saquon Barkley runs and the deep throw to Sterling Shepard, but they didn’t do much otherwise besides punt and throw horrible interceptions into the end zone.

To be fair, the Giants had a difficult matchup, but that’s also the case in this contest. The Panthers have a great pass rush that will place heavy pressure on Daniel Jones. It’s likely that Jones will commit a turnover or two as a result. It would be nice if Jones were able to utilize his best receiver, but Kadarius Toney is in the dog house for some reason.

One area where the Giants will thrive, however, is running the ball. Barkley looks terrific now that he’s two years removed from his torn ACL. While the Panthers are great against the pass, they figure to struggle against the run this year. We saw evidence of that last week when Nick Chubb and Kareem Hunt rammed the ball down the Panthers’ throat.

CAROLINA OFFENSE: The Panthers have only themselves to blame for losing to the Browns. I’m not referring to anything that happened on Cleveland’s final drive, but rather the offensive game plan throughout the afternoon. Someone will need to explain to me why Christian McCaffrey had just three touches in the first 25 minutes in the game. Carolina’s reluctance to get the ball to its best player cost the team a victory.

I’m sure McCaffrey will be more involved this week, and if so, he should have a big game. The Giants had dealing with Dontrell Hilliard as a receiver out of the backfield last week, so imagine the issues they’ll have with McCaffrey in the same role.

The Giants may also really struggle to put pressure on Baker Mayfield. Carolina has some dire pass-protection issues, but the Giants’ top edge rushers, Kayvon Thibodeaux and Azeez Ojulari, were both sidelined last week. If they’re both out again, Mayfield will have all the time he needs to locate D.J. Moore and Robbie Anderson for big throws.

RECAP: I made this line Giants -2.5, which is exactly what the spread is. I like both teams more than the public does, so I’m not really sure what to do with this game. What I’m leaning toward is waiting for the injury report to see if the Giants will have their two pass rushers available for this contest. If Thibodeaux and Ojulari return, they’ll be able to win in the trenches versus a bad Carolina offensive line. If not, the Panthers will be able to move the chains effectively and potentially win outright.

I’ll obviously have updates later in the week. I’m leaning toward the Panthers at the moment, but I don’t anticipate betting this game.

THURSDAY THOUGHTS: Someone sent me a stat: Daniel Jones is 2-5 against the spread as a favorite, and his only wins have come against the Redskins. That won’t affect my pick, but it was interesting to see.

SATURDAY NOTES: The Giants are missing their top two edge rushers once again, which is what I like to see with my bet on Carolina. That’s my only update concerning this game. I’m going to put a couple of units on Carolina.

FINAL THOUGHTS: The sharps have pounded the Panthers so much that Carolina is now a favorite! I’m not seeing anything better than -1 -110 across the board. I still like the Panthers for two units.

SECOND-HALF BET: This is a 6-6 game, but the Panthers have dominated in yards. All of the Giants’ points have come on fluky plays. I’m going to bet the second-half line of -1.5 +100 at Bovada.

New England Patriots (0-1) at Pittsburgh Steelers (1-0)
Line: Patriots by 3. Total: 40.
Sunday, Sept. 18, 1:00 PM


The Matchup. Edge: None.

If you’ve followed this site for a while, you might remember that I like to respond to my spam mails. It all started numerous years ago, when a man named Jon Wire from the “United Bank of Africoan” promised me an ATM card of some sort, so I responded as a man named Mister Compassion Chuck Norris, who was raised by wolves. The following season, I received e-mails from Richard Held and Loon Bruce, who told me I won a Facebook Award, which comes with a “lump sum pay out of (750,000.00 GBP).” Pretending to be Matthew Millen Kim, I sent out my application and fake money.

I’ve been messing around with spammers ever since, pretending to be Harvey Weinstein, Joe Biden, Ramsay Bolton and Walter White. I have plenty of Spam Mails this year, so check them out if you want to see me screw with spammers. I’ll have new ones every week this year!

NEW ENGLAND OFFENSE: There are two major injury headlines in this game, and both are on this side of the ball. The first is T.J. Watt’s torn pectoral. Watt may be out a while with this injury, which fundamentally changes the entire defense. The Steelers barely blitzed Joe Burrow last week, sending an extra pass-rusher just eight times out of 53 drop-backs. They didn’t need to because Watt brought the house on his own. With Watt out, the Steelers will have to blitz more often. Mac Jones is a young quarterback, but he was solid against the blitz last year.

Speaking of Jones, he’s the second injury development. He had X-rays on his back after the season opener, and it was later determined that he has back spasms. As someone who suffers through back spasms, I can tell you that Jones will have trouble moving at times, and this might explain his struggles throughout training camp and the preseason. Medication can help, however, so perhaps Jones will feel better soon. A week might be too quick for him to make a full recovery, however.

With that in mind, the Patriots will have to establish the run early and often against Pittsburgh. This should work, as the Steelers had the league’s worst run defense last year. Damien Harris and Rhamondre Stevenson both have positive outlooks as a consequence.

PITTSBURGH OFFENSE: The Steelers beat the Bengals, but their offense did not have a positive showing in that contest. They mustered just 267 net yards of offense and achieved only 13 first downs, compared to 32 by Cincinnati. Their defense feasted off turnovers, but the offense did nothing for the most part.

The offensive line was a big problem, and it will continue to hinder the Steelers’ ability to score in this contest. The Patriots can bring the heat with Matthew Judon, who has a great matchup versus Dan Moore. Mitchell Trubisky will be forced into some bad decisions as a consequence. We didn’t see this in Week 1 because the Steelers led throughout, but Trubisky may commit some turnovers in this game.

The Steelers would love to take some pressure off Trubisky by establishing Najee Harris, but that didn’t work last week. New England has the personnel to clamp down on the run, so Harris might only be productive as a receiver out of the backfield.

RECAP: I’m surprised that the Patriots opened as road favorites in Pittsburgh because of the Steelers’ upset victory against the Bengals and the negative public sentiment around New England. Everyone knows of the Patriots’ struggles, and people just watched them score only seven points at Miami. I thought we’d see the Steelers favored by a couple of points.

Pittsburgh’s win over the Bengals was incredibly misleading. It was outgained by a wide margin and generated 19 fewer first downs than the Bengals. Now, the Steelers will have to proceed without Watt, which fundamentally changes their defense.

This is a big advantage for the Patriots, and I’d bet them at a decent rate under normal circumstances. However, I’m afraid of Jones’ medical situation. Back spasms are no joke, so he may not be at full strength. I have no interest in betting on an injured quarterback, so I’m going to pass on this game for now.

THURSDAY THOUGHTS: I think I’d be willing to swing a bet on the Patriots. The Mac Jones back spasms are my only hangup, but there’s a lot going against the Steelers.

SATURDAY NOTES: Mac Jones missed practice Thursday, but returned to a full practice Friday. Jones was marked down as an illness Thursday, but that could either be BS or a reaction to his back spasm medication. With uncertainy surrounding Jones’ back, I don’t really want to bet this game. If Jones were 100 percent, I’d have a healthy-sized wager on New England.

FINAL THOUGHTS: The sharps have bet the Patriots up to -3, but not at -3. I still have no interest in this game. If you like the Patriots, you can get them at -3 -105 at BetUS. Conversely, the Steelers are +3 -105 at Bovada.