NFL Picks Against the Spread: Week 19, 2021

Philadelphia Eagles (9-8) at Tampa Bay Buccaneers (13-4)
Line: Buccaneers by 7. Total: 47.
Sunday, Jan. 10, 1:00 PM


The Matchup. Edge: Buccaneers.

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TAMPA BAY OFFENSE: The Buccaneers haven’t been very impressive down the stretch, playing close games against the Jets and Panthers, but they’ll have some reinforcements to help them win this contest. Offensively, Leonard Fournette will return. Tampa Bay has missed Chris Godwin and Antonio Brown, but Fournette’s absence has been huge as well. He became such a big part of the passing attack this season, so his return will immensely help Tom Brady.

Fournette will beat the Eagles’ poor linebacking corps, as will Rob Gronkowski. The future Hall of Fame tight end has a great matchup this week, battling a Philadelphia defense that has been anemic to the position this year.

The Eagles have also not done very well against No. 1 receivers this season, ranking 22nd in DVOA in that regard. Mike Evans is the lone remaining downfield threat, but the Eagles won’t have much of an answer for him.

PHILADELPHIA OFFENSE: The Buccaneers will get some reinforcements on this side of the ball as well. Shaq Barrett, Jason Pierre-Paul and Lavonte David have all missed multiple games down the stretch, but they figure to return to action this Sunday. David is the most questionable of the trio, but having Barrett and Pierre-Paul will be significant to rattle a quarterback making his first playoff start.

Hurts will want to target DeVonta Smith and Dallas Goedert when he drops back to pass. The problem there is that the Buccaneers have been better against No. 1 receivers than they were earlier in the year when they struggled against aerial attacks. They still have issues against tight ends, however, so Goedert could have a solid performance.

Of course, the Eagles will want to run the ball as much as possible because they rush more than any other team in the NFL. Unfortunately for them, they’ll be going against one of the elite ground defenses in the league.

RECAP: All I heard on TV after the Sunday night games was that the Eagles presented a tough matchup for the Buccaneers. It must have been at least three football people declaring that it was an interesting game and a possible upset alert.

I don’t understand this sentiment. The Eagles drew the worst possible opponent. All they do is run the ball, and the Buccaneers have the best run-stopping defense in the NFL.

This seems like a simple matchup to handicap. We already have a reference point, as the Buccaneers destroyed the Eagles earlier in the year. The final score was 28-22, but only because Tampa Bay stopped trying in the fourth quarter. The Buccaneers were leading 28-7 before they took their foot off the gas on a short work week.

I’m mildly concerned that we’ll see some sort of back-door bulls**t nonsense from Hurts again – I’m still salty about that ATS loss – but I think it’s definitely more likely that we’ll see the Buccaneers cover this spread easily.

THURSDAY THOUGHTS: I live right outside of Philadelphia, so I’ve encountered way too many Eagles fans who are confident about a potential upset. This makes me more bullish on Tampa Bay.

SATURDAY NOTES: We’re still waiting on the status of Leonard Fournette, which has become slightly more significant with Ronald Jones ruled out.

FINAL THOUGHTS: The sharps are on the Buccaneers. This is for two reasons in all likelihood. The first is the rumors of bad weather, while the second is Leonard Fournette’s absence. The weather doesn’t look too bad. The winds are expected to be up to 15 mph, which isn’t terrible. That shouldn’t affect Tom Brady too much because he’ll still have plenty of success targeting Rob Gronkowski and the running backs. And speaking of the running backs, the Buccaneers will be getting back Giovani Bernard to pair with Ke’Shawn Vaughn, which is good enough to prevail. The Eagles will be missing Josh Sweat, which will impact their pass rush. I’m going to bet three units on Tampa, and I will pay for the -7. The best line is -7 -115 at DraftKings.

TEASER ADDED: I’m going to tease the Buccaneers with the 49ers. Tampa Bay should be able to win outright, while the 49ers figure to keep the game close with the Cowboys. If anything, a back-door score is possible to get to within single digits because Dallas can’t run the ball. Getting all the key numbers with the 49ers is appealing.

San Franicsco 49ers (10-7) at Dallas Cowboys (12-5)
Line: Cowboys by 3.5. Total: 49.5.
Sunday, Jan. 16, 4:40 PM


The Matchup. Edge: None.

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In this book, I talk about the top NFL Draft busts, and what would’ve happened had each team gone a different route. Also, I discuss why Roger Goodell has banned us from the NFL Combine.

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DALLAS OFFENSE: It’s official – the Cowboys have snapped out of their slump. They had struggled offensively for weeks, but that all changed in the regular-season finale. Dak Prescott fired five touchdown passes in three quarters, so Dallas’ offense is ready to explode in the playoffs.

I’m being a bit facetious for those who couldn’t tell. The Cowboys battled Philadelphia’s backups, so Prescott was tossing passes to wide-open players all night. There was nothing to gain from that performance, aside from misguided confidence. Then again, perhaps that’ll help. I’m not being facetious this time. Increased confidence, as unfounded as it might be, could aid Dallas, especially in this matchup against an injury-ravaged group of cornerbacks. Amari Cooper and Cedrick Wilson have outstanding matchups. CeeDee Lamb and Dalton Schultz, not so much, but they’ll still be factors.

One area in which Dallas will not succeed is running the ball. Ezekiel Elliott has been sluggish for most of the year, and he’ll be matched up against a stalwart 49ers defensive front that just shut down the Rams’ potent rushing game.

SAN FRANCISCO OFFENSE: The 49ers’ scoring unit looks excellent in the right matchups. Those “right matchups” are versus teams that can’t defend the middle of the field or rushing attacks.

Addressing the latter first, the Cowboys are weaker to the run than the pass. They improved in that regard late in the year, but didn’t exactly face powerhouse offenses outside of Arizona down the stretch. In that game, the Cowboys did a fine job of limiting Chase Edmonds, but an injured Edmonds was forced into starting because James Conner was sidelined. I don’t think that game was indicative of how Elijah Mitchell will perform.

As for the middle of the field, the Cowboys have struggled to defend tight ends all year, so George Kittle will thrive. Dallas is also worse against slot receivers than they are versus outside wideouts, so that doesn’t bode well for their chances of containing Deebo Samuel.

RECAP: This seems like an evenly matched game. Both offenses figure to attack the opposition very well. Dallas’ receivers have a huge edge over the 49ers’ injury-ravaged receiving corps. Meanwhile, the 49ers will be able to attack the Cowboys’ defense with Mitchell, Samuel and Kittle. This is going to be a boring prediction, but I think this is a 50/50 game. Thus, I’m going to pick the underdog. Perhaps I’m wrong, but it seems like the two most likely outcomes of this game are the Cowboys winning by three and the 49ers winning by three. Thus, we get either a win or a push with the +3. I’d be more interested in the 49ers if we were getting +3.5.

THURSDAY THOUGHTS: Trent Williams missed practice today, so that’s something to monitor as we head into the weekend. This is so close that I may switch to Dallas if Williams is sidelined.

SATURDAY NOTES: Trent Williams didn’t end up having an injury designation. There’s not much else to say about the game at the moment, as the line has remained stagnant over the past 48 hours.

FINAL THOUGHTS: I still think the best bet involving this game is teasing the 49ers up to +9. The sharps haven’t bet either side, but I found a viable +3.5 that’s interesting to me. You can get +3.5 -114 at Bookmaker, so I’m going to put a unit on San Francisco at that line.

Pittsburgh Steelers (9-8-1) at Kansas City Chiefs (12-5)
Line: Chiefs by 13. Total: 46.
Sunday, Jan. 16, 8:15 PM


The Matchup. Edge: Chiefs.

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A reminder that Jerks of the Week for this week is up, so just click the link. This week’s jerks entry is called Mr. Man Boobs and Mr. Peach. See what happened what my 4-year-old niece asked me to play after my second Thanksgiving.

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KANSAS CITY OFFENSE: The Chiefs hosted the Steelers three weeks ago in a very lopsided game. Kansas City won 36-10, a margin that would’ve been much greater had they not taken their foot off the gas. Patrick Mahomes threw just five passes in the second half.

Mahomes was excellent in that contest, going 23-of-30 for 258 yards and three touchdowns. This was despite Travis Kelce being sidelined with a minor illness. Tyreek Hill played, but was constantly bracketed by the Steelers. Pittsburgh thought it could get away with this strategy with Kelce being out of the lineup, but Mahomes just torched Pittsburgh’s secondary by going to his other weapons, including Byron Pringle, who caught six passes for 75 yards and two touchdowns. Hill will get more opportunities this week with Kelce on the field.

The Steelers surrendered triple-digit rushing yards in that game, which shouldn’t surprise anyone. Pittsburgh’s run defense has been anemic all year, and that will remain the case against the Chiefs once again.

PITTSBURGH OFFENSE: Despite surrendering 36 points, the Steelers were worse offensively in the huge defeat. They scored in garbage time, so even the 4.3 yards-per-play figure they happened to generate was a farce.

The Chiefs simply put way too much pressure on Ben Roethlisberger. Kansas City has a top-five pressure rate in the NFL, which presents a huge problem for the Steelers because their offensive line is so bad. Nothing has changed in the past three weeks, so Roethlisberger will constantly be hounded.

The one hope the Steelers have of moving the chains is via Najee Harris’ runs. The Chiefs are weaker to the rush than the pass, but if this game gets out of hand early, Harris won’t have many opportunities.

RECAP: Has anything changed in three weeks, aside from Kelce’s return? Unless I’m missing something, the Chiefs should be able to win easily once again. They’re substantially better than the Steelers, who are the worst team to make the playoffs according to both my NFL Power Rankings and DVOA. They’re 24th in DVOA, meaning they really should have been 6-11 or so. The Bears, after all, finished just ahead of them in the DVOA rankings, and they went 6-11.

If you believe this spread is high, think about it this way: The sportsbooks set this line as high as possible so everyone wouldn’t pound the Chiefs. The sportsbooks actually want you to bet the Steelers. Also, huge underdogs in the playoffs have a dubious track record of covering. Dating back to divisional realignment in 2002, double-digit underdogs in the playoffs are 4-13 against the spread (not counting the Super Bowl). They are 1-10 against the spread since the new CBA in 2010. The only such cover since 2010 was the Marshawn Lynch earthquake game in January 2011! These huge dogs are a sucker bet for the public, so I’m going to have several units on the Chiefs.

THURSDAY THOUGHTS: Najee Harris missed practice both Wednesday and Thursday. The Steelers have no chance of winning this game with Harris. Without him, it’ll be a negative winning percentage.

SATURDAY NOTES: Clyde Edwards-Helaire is out, but that won’t impact my handicapping. Honestly, I’d rather have Darrel Williams and Derrick Gore splitting the workload.

FINAL THOUGHTS: I think this game will resemble Buccaneers-Eagles from earlier today. These teams are just on another level. In fact, the Steelers are even worse than the Eagles. The sharps came in on Kansas City at -12.5, which I’m glad to see after we were on opposite sides of the Buccaneers-Eagles game. The best line is -13 +101 at Bookmaker.

Arizona Cardinals (11-6) at Los Angeles Rams (12-5)
Line: Rams by 4. Total: 49.5.
Monday, Jan. 17, 8:15 PM


The Matchup. Edge: Cardinals.

This week on ESPN, we’re going to have awful announcers calling the shots instead the great preseason homers like Kevin Reilly, Ron Wolfley and Don Tollefson, inept ESPN guys Emmitt, Herman Edwards, and aloof people like Jay Cutler. Here’s what it would sound like if some of these dudes (and some special guests) were calling this game:

Reilly: Welcome to the city of Arizona, where tonight, the Phoenix Cardinals take on the L.A. Chargers. Guys, I fought tooth and nail to get us to broadcast the Eagles game. I had a plan to put dynamite in Tom Brady’s underpants so my Philadelphia Eagles would win and become known to all as the greatest team in NFL history!

Emmitt: Byeong-gi, when I was young, maybe like 500 year ago, I play for the Cowboy. I think I was running back for the team. One day, a guy wearing sign glasses and mustache approach me and ask me to stick dynamite into Troy Aiken underpants. He offer me Randall Cunningham bubble head, but I says no.

Reilly: That definitely wasn’t me, I swear! Let’s move on to another topic. We have a special guest in the broadcast booth tonight. It’s none other than Supreme Court Justice Sonia Sotomayor! She’s a Supreme Court justice, so she’s bound to have lots of intelligent things to say!

Sotomayor: Thank you, Kevin, I have lots of important things to talk about regarding this sport of football. This was a special year for football. If I’m to understand this correctly, Aaron Rodgers will win MVP because he threw 100,000 touchdown passes this season.

Tollefson: Wow, you really know your football! Do you have any daughters or granddaughters who are more attractive than you so I can kidnap them and force them to cook and clean naked for me?

Reilly: Tolly, I already asked, and she doesn’t have kids. I was hoping she’d have a daughter so Justice Sonia could force her to go out on a date with me, but I guess I’ll have to ask another justice.

Sotomayor: I believe we need to address head injuries in the NFL. Tom Brady received 5,000 concussions last month, which is fewer than the 7,500 concussions Timothy Mahomes received last month, so if we do not address this, wait a second, who is this man climbing out of my suitcase?

Schefter: Thanks, Sonia, I had to hide in your suitcase because I was afraid of the Omnicron variant. I tested your suitcase 716 times, and it all came back negative for the Omnicron variant, so I thought it was the safest place for me. Kevin, I have breaking news for you. I was going to hold it until I got the green light from Rick Spielman, but seeing as he was fired, I can now report this news. I got a leaked e-mail from Kevin Reilly’s e-mail account that says, “I’m so upset that Justice Sonia is hiding her daughters from me because I really thought she could force one to go out on a date with me. Justice Sonia is a total farter, but not as much of a farter as Roger Goodell.” Back to you, Kevin!

Reilly: How does someone keep having access to my e-mails!? This is bull poop!

Joe Biden: Bull poop are like windmills. The windmills, they do the thing. They do the thing and they spin around and the fire. The fire got put out by the windmills and the bull poop. I once knew a man named Bull Poop. He was the head honcho at the movie theater I used to work at. He was a bad dude. He challenged me to a game of Scrabble, so I said, “Look here, Bull Poop. I apologize for the windmills and the fire, but if you don’t let me get the first triple word score, then you ain’t half-Korean, half-Hispanic.”

Donald Trump: Excuse me, excuse me, Sleepy Creepy Joe has some loopholes in his story, OK? No one knows more about loopholes than me because I invented the loophole, and not just any loopholes, the best loopholes. People come up to me all the time and ask, “Sir, how do you have the best loopholes, sir?” And I tell them that I got a great deal on those loopholes. A man in a suit came to me and said, “Mr. Trump, I will sell you these loopholes for $50 million.” And then I said, “Make it $5 million,” and he said it was a deal. I saved $45 million on these loopholes. I call it, a loophole in my savings account, that’s what I call it. It was the greatest deal anyone has ever seen, and everyone agrees.

Wolfley: DONALD, CAN I HAVE YOUR FRIEND’S PHONE NUMBER? I WAS LOOKING TO BUY LOOPHOLES FOR MY BROTHER’S BIRTHDAY, WHICH IS IN 22.5 ZORKS, AND I NEED A GOOD DEAL. MY BROTHER LIKES TO PUT LOOPHOLES ON THE BOYS.

Reilly: Shut up, idiots! We have an important guest here, and she has to make her prediction. But first, New Daddy will make his prediction. New Daddy, what’s your prediction for tonight?

Jay Cutler: I’ll go with the cheeseburger deluxe.

Reilly: New Daddy, you promised you’d pay more attention to the game! Now, it’s time for Justice Sotomayor’s prediction!

Sotomayor: I’ve decided on my prediction for this game. I will go Pirates scoring 8,421 points and the Senators scoring 3,369 points.

Reilly: Darn it, if only Mother thought I was mature enough to have a betting account! I’d bet on this prediction, pronto, Justice Sotomayor!

Charles Davis: Kevin, sounds like you’re talking about Supreme Court justices, Kevin. Let’s discuss some other justices, Kevin. Let’s begin with John Roberts, Kevin. He’s the head honcho, Kevin, or the chief, Kevin, which is a racist term, Kevin, so maybe they won’t call it Chief Justice much longer, Kevin. Let’s discuss Clarence Thomas, Kevin. How about Stephen Breyer, Kevin? Don’t forget about Samuel Alito, Kevin. How about a fireside chat about Elena Kagan, Kevin? What do you think about Neil Gorsuch, Kevin? Who could forget Brett Kavanaugh, Kevin? Last but not least, there’s Amy Coney Barrett, Kevin. Oh, and how could I forget Justice Kevin Reilly, Kevin? More like Justice of Losers, Kevin.

Reilly: F**K YOU, CHARLES DAVIS! I’M NOT A LOSER! I’M A WINNER, AND SOON ENOUGH, ONE OF THE SUPREME COURT JUSTICES WILL FORCE THEIR DAUGHTER TO DATE ME, AND THEN I’LL HAVE THE LAST LAUGH! We’ll be back after this!

LOS ANGELES OFFENSE: I keep writing it each week, but Matthew Stafford isn’t right. He’s dealing with what was reported as “chronic back issues,” and he was limping around toward the end of last week’s loss to the 49ers. Stafford threw 10 interceptions in four games to close out the season. He had just seven picks in the 13 contests prior to that stretch!

I would expect more turnovers in this game. The Cardinals will likely have J.J. Watt back in the lineup to improve their pass rush, while their opportunistic defense will make sure to get their hands on some of Stafford’s passes. Arizona is terrific at shutting down No. 1 receivers and tight ends, so they’ll be able to limit Cooper Kupp and Tyler Higbee.

The Cardinals also will be better versus the run in the wake of Watt’s return. The Cardinals have been worse versus ground attacks since Watt’s injury, so they’ll be able to keep Sony Michel and Cam Akers from going nuts.

ARIZONA OFFENSE: The Cardinals won’t have DeAndre Hopkins back quite yet, but that’s OK for this matchup. They should be able to score on the Rams, which is what they did during their first trip to Los Angeles when they posted 37 points on the scoreboard. The Cardinals notched just 23 points in the second meeting, but outgained the Rams, 344-267, and averaged six yards per play.

The primary reason for the bullish outlook on the Cardinals’ offense is Jordan Fuller’s injury. Not many casual fans know about Fuller, but he’s the Rams’ defensive signal-caller. Fuller is one of the best safeties in the NFL. He got hurt last week, sparking the 49ers’ comeback. His replacement, Nick Scott, was atrocious.

Fuller is a force in both run support and coverage. The Cardinals will be able to move the chains on the ground with James Conner and Kyler Murray, much like the 49ers did in the second half of last week’s affair with Elijah Mitchell and Deebo Samuel. With worse coverage downfield, Murray will have better success airing out passes to his receivers not named Hopkins.

RECAP: I don’t think this spread makes any sense. It may look logical to some, but think about it this way: When these teams met in Arizona in Week 14, the Cardinals were 2.5-point favorites. Now, they’re four-point dogs on the road. Factoring in the standard one point each way for home-field advantage, and you have a 4.5-point movement in the Rams’ favor – and that doesn’t even account for Watt being back in the lineup!

This game features the greatest disparity between the point spread and my projected line in the playoffs. I made the Rams -1, and only because -0.5 lines don’t exist. Thus, we’re getting three points of line value, including the key number of three.

Seriously, think about how dumb this line is. The Rams just closed -3.5 versus San Francisco, and now they’re -4 against the Cardinals. That says the 49ers are 0.5 points better than the Cardinals, even though Arizona swept San Francisco this year.

The reason this spread makes no sense is that everyone saw the Cardinals lose to the Seahawks. I don’t think Arizona was fully focused coming off a big statement win versus Dallas. Besides, what have the Rams done recently that’s been so impressive? They lost to the 49ers, they barely beat the Tyler Huntley-led Ravens, and they were outgained by the Vikings. Stafford is dealing with a bad back, and the defense will now have to move forward without Fuller. Given everything, the Rams don’t deserve to be favored by this many points. In fact, it could be argued if they deserve to be favored at all!

This is my January NFL Pick of the Month. I thought about locking in the +4, but I saw a +4.5 appear at the Westgate. Perhaps other books will move to +4.5.

THURSDAY THOUGHTS: CRIS, one of the sharpest books, has knocked down this line to +3.5. FanDuel has gone in that direction as well. I’m going to lock in the +4 before it disappears. Both Bovada and BetUS still have +4 available.

SATURDAY NOTES: I’m glad I was right about this line movement as well. Other sportsbooks have moved this line to +3.5, while Bovada increased the vig on the +4.

FINAL THOUGHTS: There’s been so much sharp action on the Cardinals that this spread has fallen to +3 in some sportsbooks. The best line I see is +3.5 -115 at Bovada. I still love the Cardinals. In fact, I’m going to add a unit to the moneyline.