NFL Picks Against the Spread: Week 19, 2021

Las Vegas Raiders (10-7) at Cincinnati Bengals (10-7)
Line: Bengals by 6. Total: 48.5.
Saturday, Jan. 15, 4:30 PM


The Matchup. Edge: None.

Week 18 Analysis: We had a winning Week 18, but just barely. We were still hit with the bad end of the variance stick, unfortunately.

I’ll break down all the multi-unit picks once again:

Chiefs, 3 units (loss): The Broncos played their Super Bowl, while the Chiefs didn’t have their best effort. I thought Kansas City would try harder off a loss. It’s a shame there’s no Week 19 of the regular season because the Broncos would’ve been a great fade.

Bears, 3 units (loss): I really hate this quarterback diving rule. Andy Dalton’s touchdown was overturned, and the Bears got no points because of it even though he was trying to score a touchdown. This was part of Chicago’s collapse. The Bears as underdogs, were winning 14-0, but blew their big lead, thanks in part to that overturned touchdown.

Colts, 4 units (win): It’s crazy that the Jaguars would have covered the Colts’ closing line if they were favorites. My only regret is not betting more on the Jacksonville moneyline. But as a wise man once said, “hindsight is 50/50.”

Giants, 3 units (loss): Speaking of hindsight, betting on Jake Fromm was incredibly stupid. This was the only pick I regret making.

Ravens, 3 units (loss): Here’s another disappointing result. The Ravens outgained the Steelers and averaged 1.2 more yards per play, but lost because of Tyler Huntley’s interceptions. The one in the red zone was brutal because th Ravens would have pushed had they just settled for a Justin Tucker field goal.

Dolphins, 3 units (win): I’m glad I listened to Jacob’s argument and switched sides. I’m not glad that I had the Dolphins defense in my DFS lineup and switched at the last minute!

Saints, 3 units (loss): The Falcons averaged more yards per play than the Saints, but were killed on third down on both sides of the ball. They also had some bad luck with Mike Davis’ fumble. The Saints were the better team, but I’ll always fade the Aurora Snowmo teams. No regrets here.

Seahawks, 5 units (win): An easy win despite the Seahawks giving the Cardinals a free touchdown to start the game.

49ers, 3 units (win): I mentioned we were unlucky with the Ravens and Bears games, so I’ll have to admit that I wrote this off as a loss. We were fortunate the Rams collapsed after their defensive play-caller got hurt.

Raiders, 3 units (win): What a game!

It’s nice to have some momentum heading into the playoffs!

A couple of things: First, I’m going to remind you every week that my wife is due very soon. My wife delivered our son, Conrad, nearly two weeks ago! Thanks so much to anyone who sent a congratulatory e-mail or comment! Second, I just published a book called How the 2020 MVP Was Stolen:



This book is not completely about football; it’s more political than anything, so some of you will hate it. In fact, it wouldn’t surprise me if Amazon bans it at some point, so get it while you can. Nevertheless, if you want to support the site, please consider ordering a copy!

My overrated-underrated feature was posted in this spot the past couple of years. I thought it would be better if there was less clutter on this page, so I set up a new NFL Overrated and Underrated Teams page that will be updated every Monday. I have overrated and underrated teams listed there, and some may shock you!

VEGAS UPDATE: I’ll be posting how the Vegas sportsbooks have done the previous week in this spot. The highest-bet sides were 34-42 in 2020 and 48-37 so far this year. As you can tell, the sportsbooks have taken a beating.

Here are the teams getting the most bets last week:

Patriots -6

Redskins -6.5

Cowboys -5.5

Buccaneers -10.5

Chiefs -10

The highly bet teams went 3-2, but the Colts’ loss meant that many moneyline parlays were busted. The Patriots disrupted some teasers as well.

Here are the teams getting the most bets this week:

Bills -4

Just the Bills, which is not a surprise.

CINCINNATI OFFENSE: Joe Burrow was on fire to close out the year, torching the Chiefs relentlessly one week after generating the third-most passing yards in a single game in NFL history versus Baltimore. He didn’t play in Week 18, but surely one week off isn’t going to derail him.

Burrow excels against teams that blitz him. It’s usual for such a young quarterback to be proficient against the blitz, but Burrow happens to be on another level when compared to his peers. The Ravens and Chiefs blitz often, and Burrow made them pay. The Raiders, conversely, blitz less than any other team in the NFL. They don’t have to, given that they have such a dynamic defensive line. They’ll be able to pressure Burrow with just their front four. Fortunately for Burrow, he has so many talented receivers at his disposal, so he’ll still have success throwing the ball.

The Raiders will at least be able to stop Joe Mixon. They have a top-10 run defense DVOA, and we recently saw them completely put the clamps on Melvin Gordon and Javonte Williams. They’ll be able to handle Mixon.

LAS VEGAS OFFENSE: Like the Raiders, the Bengals also have a stout run defense. They’re slightly worse in the DVOA rankings in that regard, but they’ll be able to limit Josh Jacobs. This is bad news for the Raiders, who will want to establish their bellcow running back.

Fortunately for the Raiders, they have some advantages in this matchup. While the Bengals are strong against slot receivers – meaning Hunter Renfrow might be a bit limited – they are very weak to tight ends. Darren Waller returned last week, and while he wasn’t quite himself, he’ll be better in this matchup.

Waller’s presence is huge. Even though he caught just a couple of passes last week, he still made a huge impact because he opened things up for everyone else. The Raiders had a long stretch in the second half of the season in which they scored 17 or fewer points every week, but all of these games occurred without Waller. He last played on Thanksgiving, when the Raiders scored into the mid-30s. It’s no coincidence that the Raiders got into the mid-30s last week during Waller’s return to action for the first time since that Thanksgiving affair.

RECAP: I had a 1.5-point difference between the opening spread and my projected line, so there was a bit of spread value when the number was first released. I made this line Cincinnati -5, so we fully had the key number of six when this line was -6.5. Sharp money, however, brought the spread down to +6 on Monday and then to +5.5 on Tuesday.

I think there’s a decent chance the Raiders cover this spread, given that they played evenly versus the Bengals in their previous matchup, despite what the final score said (yardage was even and the Raiders averaged more yards per play.) What bothers me, however, is the weather. The Raiders are dome/warm weather team, and it’s projected to be sub-20 degrees in Cincinnati. There’s a long track record of dome/warm weather teams really struggling in such environments.

If we were expecting warmer weather, I think I would be betting the Raiders. However, I can’t place a wager on them in what’s expected to be a 17-degree game. However, if you’re thinking about fading the sharps and betting Cincinnati, keep in mind that quarterbacks who make their initial playoff start often do poorly as favorites (6-16 ATS since 2002). Derek Carr is also making his first playoff start, but road underdogs have been better in this regard (8-10 ATS).

THURSDAY THOUGHTS: I might go to two units. After thinking about it, I like the Raiders a bit more than I originally did after thinking about the pressure Burrow will see while not being blitzed. I’m going to try to find the best +6 line possible because six has become such an important key number.

SATURDAY NOTES: I think I’ve settled on one unit for this game. I’m worried about the cold weather impacting the Raiders. The sharps, while on the Raiders at +6.5 and +6, have some in on the Bengals at -5.5.

FINAL THOUGHTS: As mentioned throughout the week, as well as earlier today, the sharps are split on this game. I mostly was as well, but the weather isn’t too bad; it’s currently 32 degrees in Cincinnati, which is much better than the expected 19 degrees from earlier in the week. I’m going to be on the Raiders for two units. The best line is +6 -107 at Bookmaker.

New England Patriots (10-7) at Buffalo Bills (11-6)
Line: Bills by 5. Total: 43.
Saturday, Jan. 15, 8:15 PM


The Matchup. Edge: Bills.

HATE MAIL: I will be posting hate mail here. We got just a bit this week:



Good thing Dr. WalterFootball was here on the case!

I’m also an expert in this matter:



Imagine wanting to steal something else from Native Americans. These are bad people.

Here’s a legitimate hate complaint:



It’s true. I still didn’t get to watch all the Week 17 NFL games with the hospital stay and the newborn, so I apologize for any legitimate errors.

BUFFALO OFFENSE: The Bills made a huge mistake in their first matchup against the Patriots. There were fierce winds in Buffalo, but Josh Allen, unlike Mac Jones, has the arm strength to succeed in such conditions. Buffalo mimicked the Patriots and seldom threw until they absolutely needed to do so. Their ineffective running game got nothing, and they lost as a consequence.

The winds weren’t as sharp in the second meeting, so it’s unclear if the Bills learned from their mistake. Nevertheless, Allen had a great game, particularly in the fourth quarter when he repeatedly kept drives alive on third down. He threw for 314 yards and three touchdowns, and he also used his legs, scrambling for 64 yards.

Bill Belichick is obviously an offensive mastermind, so he’ll have something new cooked up for Allen. The problem though is the Bills have so much firepower. Belichick is excellent at erasing one aspect of the opposing offense, and his team is terrific against tight ends. However, even with Stefon Diggs and Dawson Knox limited, Allen can still throw to Cole Beasley, Gabriel Davis and Emmanuel Sanders. There’s also Devin Singletary, who has become a greater part of the receiving game. Plus, Allen can beat the Patriots with his mobility; Belichick’s defenses historically have been worse against scrambling quarterbacks.

NEW ENGLAND OFFENSE: The Patriots were able to keep their second matchup against the Bills close with their powerful rushing attack. Damien Harris was terrific, dashing for 103 yards and three touchdowns. Mac Jones even scrambled for 33 yards.

I don’t see why Harris and Rhamondre Stevenson couldn’t duplicate this performance. The Bills are not very good against the run, so unless the Patriots are getting blown out, they’ll be able to establish their rushing attack in order to keep Allen off the field.

If the Patriots need to throw, however, they’ll be in big trouble. While Jones ran well in the 33-21 loss, he failed to complete half of his passes, going 14-of-32 for 145 yards and two interceptions. Tom Brady is the only quarterback who has enjoyed success against the Bills this year. The Bills have the No. 1 aerial defense in the NFL. They generate the most pressure, and they have talented defenders who can smother opposing play-makers. Jones will struggle again.

RECAP: There were no advance spreads for these games for obvious reasons, but if there were, I believe we would have seen Buffalo -3. That’s what the line was when these teams met in Buffalo earlier in the year. Also, prior to Week 18, we saw the Patriots win 50-10 over the Jaguars and the Bills have trouble putting away the Falcons. I feel strongly about a hypothetical advance line being -3.

It’s a shame we lost the line value as a result of New England’s loss to Miami because I like the Bills. I hate Jones’ outlook in this game. Not only is he battling a defensive mastermind and the NFL’s No. 1 pass defense; he also has to navigate through his first playoff start. I believe what we saw last week versus Miami was a harbinger of things to come for the young quarterback.

At any rate, the lack of line value will limit my wager. I’ll have more interest in the Bills if this gets down to -3, but then again, that just means the sharps love New England. It’s worth noting that there’s been a bit of pro action on New England, bringing this line down from +4.5 to +4, but that could be phantom movement in order to get a better number on Buffalo.

THURSDAY THOUGHTS: We haven’t seen this line move back yet, but it could happen on Friday or Saturday.

SATURDAY NOTES: I may not get this pick right, but I nailed the line movement. The sharps have come in on Buffalo, as expected. Part of the reason might be the injury to Isaiah Wynn. His absence will be enormous against the NFL’s No. 1 pass rush.

FINAL THOUGHTS: The sharps didn’t touch this game at -5 after betting the Bills at -4. There’s a -4.5 available at BetUS, which is the best line I can find.