NFL Picks Against the Spread: Week 13, 2021

Washington Redskins (5-6) at Las Vegas Raiders (6-5)
Line: Raiders by 3. Total: 48.
Sunday, Dec. 5, 4:05 PM


The Matchup. Edge: None.

Video of the Week: Netflix employees have been in the news because they’ve been triggered by mean jokes on the Dave Chapelle special. What if they had to work real jobs?



It’s funny, yet also sad that these insufferable douche bags hold so much power because companies believe the tiny, loud minority on Twitter represents the entire country.

WASHINGTON OFFENSE: The Redskins don’t have a flashy scoring unit, or anything, but they’re great at killing teams by a thousand cuts. They seldom make mistakes and pick up modest gains on nearly every play.

The Raiders will have trouble getting off the field in this game. Their run defense is in the bottom half of the league, so Antonio Gibson will continue his stellar running from Monday night. Furthermore, the Raiders are miserable at defending tight ends. Logan Thomas was limited in his return from injury last week, but he should have a greater role this week. Perhaps he won’t drop a pass in the end zone this time.

LAS VEGAS OFFENSE: The Raiders figure to have success offensively as well. The Redskins blitz at one of the highest rates in the NFL. While this would be great in a matchup against Justin Herbert or Daniel Jones, the same can’t be said of Derek Carr, who beats the blitz consistently. In fact, Carr’s big-time throw percentage is 5.3 when not blitzed and 12.9 when blitzed! His YPA when blitzed is 10.0, which is insane.

Carr struggled in a couple of games ahead of Thanksgiving because he lost his deep threat in Henry Ruggs. DeSean Jackson has filled that role nicely, however. Jackson will be eager to torch his former team, which he will be able to do because the Redskins surrender lots of big passing plays.

The Redskins also aren’t very good against tight ends. Fortunately for them, they won’t have to deal with Darren Waller, who is week-to-week with an injury. Josh Jacobs could have success as a receiver out of the backfield, however. Alex Collins caught a big pass Monday night, though he ruined it by fumbling. The Seahawks never went back to him in the passing game, but Jacobs has been catching many passes recently.

RECAP: Neither defense seems to match up well against the opposing offense. The Redskins are weak to the deep ball and blitz frequently. The Raiders can take advantage of both facets. The Redskins, however, also figure to nickel and dime the Raiders all afternoon with Gibson runs and Thomas catches.

I’m leaning toward the Redskins at the moment, but only because this spread may hit +3. The advance line was +1.5, but because the Raiders beat an injury-ravaged Dallas team, this number jumped a point. It won’t be a major move until the line gets to +3, but that could happen because there’s so much public money on Vegas. I will definitely consider a bet if we get the full field goal with Washington.

THURSDAY THOUGHTS: I’m still hoping we get a +3 line. Darren Waller missed Wednesday’s practice, but he’s not expected to play anyway.

SATURDAY NOTES: The Redskins suddenly have some offensive line issues. They were already missing their right tackle and center, and they could be without one of their guards, Ereck Flowers. Landon Collins is also out, too. The Raiders, however, won’t be without Darren Waller, and there’s a chance DeSean Jackson could be sidelined. I’m not sure if I’ll be betting this game yet especially with no +3 being available. The sharps made sure of that.

SUNDAY MORNING NOTES: It sounds like DeSean Jackson will play, so I don’t have much interest on either side. The sharps have been betting the Redskins.

FINAL THOUGHTS: DeSean Jackson will play, but so will some of the injured Redskin offensive linemen who were on the injury report. The sharps are on Washington. You can get a +3 -134 at Bookmaker, which is worth it because three is such a key number. I’ll bet a unit on that.

Baltimore Ravens (8-3) at Pittsburgh Steelers (5-5-1)
Line: Ravens by 4. Total: 44.
Sunday, Dec. 5, 4:25 PM


The Matchup. Edge: None.

The Adventures of Tom Brady’s Haircuts are complete. They may return in the future, but I had to stop them for now.

By the way, my other book is still available as well:



In this book, I talk about the top NFL Draft busts, and what would’ve happened had each team gone a different route. Also, I discuss why Roger Goodell has banned us from the NFL Combine.

BALTIMORE OFFENSE: Lamar Jackson had some horrible moments against the Browns, throwing four interceptions. However, he made up for it with some spectacular plays, ultimately beating Cleveland by six.

Jackson tends to struggle against the blitz, but the Steelers don’t attack quarterbacks that way anymore. They can still generate lots of pressure, however, whenever T.J. Watt is on the field. Watt’s availability is in question in this contest because he tested positive for a minor illness. He could be cleared prior to kickoff, but it’s unclear if that’ll be the case.

On the bright side for Pittsburgh, Joe Haden will return this week. His presence will be welcome after Tee Higgins torched the secondary. Jackson should still have some success, though I wouldn’t count the running game on being dominant, even after Joe Mixon trampled the Steelers last week. The Ravens don’t run the ball very well with Devonta Freeman, so the Steeler struggling rush defense won’t be punished very harshly.

PITTSBURGH OFFENSE: While the Steelers no longer blitz frequently like they did under Dick LeBeau, the Ravens certainly do. They’re third in blitz rate, which can be an effective strategy against young quarterbacks like Baker Mayfield. Ben Roethlisberger, on the other hand, has actually been better when blitzed this year as opposed to when he hasn’t been.

That said, it’s not like that’s saying much because Roethlisberger has struggled all year, thanks to his poor offensive line. The Ravens, however, don’t get to the quarterback very well when not blitzing, so the Steeler offense won’t be limited as usual.

Baltimore’s defense has given up some big plays in the passing game, so perhaps Diontae Johnson and Chase Claypool will have some considerable gains. Pat Freiermuth will be able to take advantage of the Ravens’ inability to stop tight ends, assuming he clears concussion protocol.

RECAP: What a difference a week makes! A week ago, everyone was talking about how the Steelers always play close games because that’s what Jac Collinsworth’s dad said on national TV. Now, everyone believes the Steelers are terrible because they were blown out by the Bengals. They’ve gone from +3 to +4.5, and yet everyone is betting on Baltimore.

However, if the Steelers could keep their games against the Chargers and Browns close, why wouldn’t they be able to do the same thing against Baltimore, a team that has rarely blown teams out this year? The Ravens beat the Browns by six, but that was just a three-point affair for most of the evening. Excluding that game, the last time the Ravens beat an opponent by more than three was back in Week 6!

Baltimore-Pittsburgh battles are always close, and I expect that to be the case again. The Steelers are a prideful team, so I expect them to be at their best off such an embarrassing defeat. The Ravens, meanwhile, don’t have the personnel to take advantage of Pittsburgh’s weak point, which is the rush defense. I like the Steelers as a medium-sized bet.

THURSDAY THOUGHTS: So many Baltimore players missed Wednesday’s practice. We’ll see what happens, but I may increase my unit count on the Steelers, especially with this line rising to +4.5.

SATURDAY NOTES: The Ravens will get Calais Campbell back, but every single one of their regular cornerbacks are on the injured list. There’s a chance all of them could miss this game. I already liked the Steelers, but these potential absences will only make me increase my unit count. Meanwhile, T.J. Watt will play, so that’s obviously great news for Pittsburgh.

SUNDAY MORNING NOTES: The sharps bet the Steelers on Sunday morning. They may know something about the Ravens’ cornerback situation. I’m going to lock in the +4 -104 at Bookmaker just in case this line continues to fall.

FINAL THOUGHTS: The sharps bet the Steelers at +4.5, but not at +4. This line has remained stagnant since that move. The best line is +4 -103 at Bookmaker.

Jacksonville Jaguars (2-9) at Los Angeles Rams (7-4)
Line: Rams by 14. Total: 48.
Sunday, Dec. 5, 4:25 PM


The Matchup. Edge: Rams.

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LOS ANGELES OFFENSE: I’m so frustrated with the Rams. They didn’t list Matthew Stafford on the injury report at all, but news came out Saturday night that he was dealing with “chronic back pain” and an elbow injury. How was neither posted on the injury report? What’s the point of an injury report if these matters aren’t disclosed? The Rams should be fined heavily for violating this protocol.

I’m going to assume Stafford is banged up until we see proof otherwise. With that in mind, Stafford won’t exactly have the easiest time passing against the Jaguars. Jacksonville is 11th in pressure rate and could be getting back No. 1 cornerback Shaq Griffin from concussion. The Jaguars are at the weakest trying to defend the middle of the field, but this is not an area the Rams attack often.

The Jaguars are also surprisingly stout against the run. This is why they were able to outgain the Colts a few weeks ago. They’ll handle Darrell Henderson well, forcing the hobbled Stafford to beat them.

JACKSONVILLE OFFENSE: Both offenses figure to struggle in this game. Trevor Lawrence has been a major disappointment thus far. Granted, Lawrence’s supporting cast sucks, and he’s coached very poorly, but I thought he would at least be able to engage some teams in shootouts this year. That hasn’t been the case, as the majority of Lawrence’s positive production has come in garbage time.

That could be the case again this week, assuming there even is garbage time. The Rams blitz at a healthy rate, which doesn’t bode well for Lawrence, who has struggled when blitzed this year. Lawrence has completed 62 percent of his passes when not blitzed, and only 45 percent of his throws when blitzed. Inexperience is a great factor, but another reason for this is that Lawrence’s receivers are seldom on the same page with him. I don’t have an official stat for this, but I bet the Jaguars are among the league leaders in quarterback-receiver miscommunications.

At any rate, the Jaguars have no hope of moving the chains on the ground either. James Robinson will be going up against the league’s No. 2 rush defense, and there’s no guarantee he’ll even be on the field, given that Urban Meyer likes to put Carlos Hyde into the game in important situations.

RECAP: I’m not going to place another bet on the Rams until I know for sure that Stafford is 100 percent. I’m sick and tired of losing money on these hobbled quarterbacks who aren’t listed on the injury report for some reason. I said it before, and I’ll say it again: The Rams should be fined for their misleading information.

Given that Stafford has chronic back problems, I doubt he’ll be 100 percent anytime soon. Thus, it’s Jaguars or nothing, and I have some interest in Jacksonville. Forget the ugly loss to the 49ers for a second, and the Jaguars have been competitive in most of their games lately. They lost by a touchdown to the Falcons, which, granted, isn’t the best barometer, but they outgained the Colts on the road in Week 10, and they beat the Bills the prior Sunday. If they were able to tango with the Bills and Colts, why wouldn’t they be able to cover this spread?

The Rams, meanwhile, have been blown out in three straight games. The Derrick Henry-less Titans beat them by 12 in Los Angeles! The Rams have no business being favored by nearly two touchdowns with an injured quarterback, especially when they could be looking ahead to battling the Cardinals next week.

THURSDAY THOUGHTS: Not a good start for Shaq Griffin, who missed Wednesday’s practice. If the Jaguars don’t have Griffin, I don’t know how they’re going to stop the Rams’ offense. I’m considering switching my pick.

SATURDAY NOTES: I’m making an extreme change regarding this game. Not only am I switching to the Rams and wagering on them; I’m betting them heavily. Shaq Griffin is out, meaning the Jaguars will be down their top two cornerbacks against the Rams’ terrific passing attack. Meanwhile, Trevor Lawrence will be battling a blitz-heavy defense when he struggles against the blitz. The Rams have looked crappy recently, but they’ve endured a tough schedule. Matthew Stafford’s back could suddenly feel a lot healthier against one of the worst teams in the NFL.

SUNDAY MORNING NOTES: No sharp action here. Darrell Henderson is expected to miss this game, but that doesn’t matter to me.

FINAL THOUGHTS: Darrell Henderson will play! So will Odell Beckham Jr. This line has moved to -14 as a result. I still like the Rams for three units. The best line is -14 -107 at Bookmaker.

San Francisco 49ers (6-5) at Seattle Seahawks (3-8)
Line: 49ers by 3.5. Total: 45.
Sunday, Dec. 5, 4:25 PM


The Matchup. Edge: None.

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SEATTLE OFFENSE: Russell Wilson was anemic in his first two games back from injury, but things changed a bit Monday night. Wilson’s first pass was quite dubious, but he threw some impressive balls after that. Wilson wasn’t 100 percent, but he’s clearly trending in the right direction. In fact, if he had just mediocre coaching, he would have prevailed in Washington.

Wilson presents a matchup problem for the 49ers for two reasons. One, the 49ers don’t have great play in their secondary. They still have some injuries in that area, so defending the deep ball will be a problem. We just saw Justin Jefferson and Adam Thielen have an opportunity to torch the 49er cornerbacks, which they both would have done had Kirk Cousins been remotely accurate.

The 49ers typically have a great pass rush, but often have issues defending Wilson. The reason for this is that their defense isn’t built to contain scrambling quarterbacks. Wilson will be able to use his legs to buy time or run for yardage, which is par for the course in his successful matchups against the 49ers.

SAN FRANCISCO OFFENSE: I discussed the quarterback injuries in an earlier paragraph, but the 49ers are dealing with their own woes this week. That would be to Deebo Samuel, who is not expected to play this Sunday after getting hurt in the fourth quarter. This is a huge turn of events, as Samuel is such a big part of the offense.

The 49ers still have other threats, however, including George Kittle and the emerging Brandon Aiyuk. The Seahawks figure to be weak to Kittle, but they’ve done a good job of defending the deep ball, so Aiyuk likely won’t have any deep gains in this contest.

San Francisco also figures to have issues running the ball. The Seahawks are able to clamp down on the run effectively, so they’ll be able to limit Elijah Mitchell. That said, Mitchell saw more work as a receiver out of the backfield last week. Putting Mitchell in that role would allow the 49ers to move the ball well on Seattle.

RECAP: I love betting elite quarterbacks off a loss, and… wait… I’ve written this recently, haven’t I?

Wilson has an outstanding record following a defeat (26-15 against the spread since his second season), but he’s crashed and burned this year. The reason for this has been his injured finger. Well, as I discussed earlier, it seemed better this Monday. The problem was his miserable coaching and pass protection.

Wilson, however, matches up well with the 49ers. He owns them, having beaten them 14 of the past 16 times he has battled them. The 49ers are hot now, but they just lost Samuel and also Fred Warner, so they won’t be the same on either side of the ball.

The one concern I have with betting the Seahawks is that they could be flat now that they’re effectively eliminated from the playoffs. However, the line value looks too great to pass up. The 49ers were -2.5 on the advance spread, and now they’re -3.5 even though they’ll be down Samuel and Warner. And, despite the line move, the public is pounding San Francisco like this is easy money!

I’m going to be on the Seahawks yet again. I love the value, and Wilson, who typically dominates the 49ers, will be even healthier this week after making strides this past Monday. If people can talk me out of the Seahawks not quitting, I’ll make this a huge wager, but I’ll keep it at two units for now.

THURSDAY THOUGHTS: People are telling me I’m crazy for picking the Seahawks. I’ve found in the past that this is a very bullish indicator for a team. Vegas doesn’t give money away for free, and everyone is betting the 49ers. Seattle might be a bigger play of mine.

SATURDAY NOTES: I suppose I’m a glutton for punishment, but I’m increasing my bet on Seattle. It dawned on me that this spread is insane. Think about it: The Seahawks were +2.5 on the advance spread, but that line has moved across the key number of three to +3.5 even though the 49ers will be without their best offensive player (Deebo Samuel) and second-best defensive player (Fred Warner). So, despite the injury news and line movement, the public is betting on the 49ers at an insane rate. The Seahawks, as mentioned, have dominated this matchup, and at the very worst, they should be able to keep this game close and perhaps lose by 1-3 points, just like they did on Monday night.

SUNDAY MORNING NOTES: The sharps have been pounding the Seahawks. All the +3.5s are gone, and the normal +3s are beginning to disappear. In fact, the best +3 I can see is for -112 vig at FanDuel. I’m going to lock that in now.

FINAL THOUGHTS: Again, the sharps are on the Seahawks, though much heavier at +3.5. The best line now is +3 -115 at several sportsbooks (BetUS, Bovada, FanDuel).

Denver Broncos (6-5) at Kansas City Chiefs (7-4)
Line: Chiefs by 9. Total: 46.5.
Sunday, Dec. 5, 8:20 PM


The Matchup. Edge: Chiefs.

Here’s the Top Stocks to Buy page, where I told you about GameStop last year. It will be updated once per week, or sooner if there is any emergency news.

KANSAS CITY OFFENSE: The Chiefs struggled with sloppy turnovers throughout the season, but seemingly got back on track the past couple of weeks prior to the bye. They dominated the Raiders and then did the same to the Cowboys, at least in the opening half of that contest. Now coming off a bye, Andy Reid may have something up his sleeve to help the Chiefs finish strong to close out the year.

For this game specifically, the Chiefs seem to match up well against the Broncos. First of all, Denver blitzes at one of the highest rates in the NFL. Justin Herbert couldn’t deal with the blitz last week, but Patrick Mahomes is incredible when dealing with extra pass rushers. If the Broncos utilize the same strategy, Mahomes will destroy them.

Second, the Broncos are not good at defending the middle of the field right now because they’re missing their top two inside linebackers. So, even if the Broncos cool down their blitz rate, Mahomes should have success targeting Travis Kelce and his running backs in this matchup.

DENVER OFFENSE: Quarterback health has been very prominent in recent weeks, as Aaron Rodgers, Matthew Stafford, Russell Wilson, Baker Mayfield and Jared Goff are some of the signal-callers who have endured injuries recently. Rodgers has been terrific despite his troublesome toe, but the other quarterbacks on the list have struggled when playing hurt.

I bring this up because Teddy Bridgewater dealt with a leg injury that knocked him out for a quarter-and-half against the Chargers. He returned to action following intermission, but only in an emergency role because Drew Lock was throwing the game away with poor play. Bridgewater didn’t quite look like himself upon his return, so I wouldn’t expect him to have a good game, especially if the Broncos’ offensive line continues to deal with numerous injuries. The Chiefs’ pass rush has improved greatly in recent weeks, so Bridgewater’s leg will be tested.

Kansas City has also gotten better against the run as well. Improved and healthier play on the edge has allowed Chris Jones to move back inside to his natural spot. Thus, I wouldn’t expect Melvin Gordon and Javonte Williams to have great success pounding the ball as they would have several weeks ago.

RECAP: I love betting great coaches with extra time to prepare. Reid obviously qualifies, as you can see below in the trends section. Terrific coaches like Reid often make the most of their time off to prepare a great game plan for their next opponent.

The problem is that the betting public has caught on to Reid’s post-bye success, allowing the sportsbooks to inflate this line. That said, I still like the Chiefs despite the double-digit point spread. If Bridgewater is hurt, it’ll be very difficult for the injury-ravaged Broncos to keep up with the Chiefs, who will be very sharp off the bye.

I plan on betting the Chiefs, but the unit count will depend on Denver’s injury report. If the Broncos continue to be extremely banged up as they’ve been in recent weeks, this will be a considerable wager.

THURSDAY THOUGHTS: I’m not surprised by how much money is coming in on the Broncos. The sportsbooks have set this spread too high to force public bettors into betting on Denver.

SATURDAY NOTES: The Broncos should have their offensive linemen back, but I still like the Chiefs. It’s crazy how much public action is coming in on Denver.

SUNDAY MORNING NOTES: The sharps haven’t bet the Chiefs, which is surprising. This line is dropping a bit with so much public action on the Broncos.

FINAL THOUGHTS: Something I failed to mention is that Rashad Fenton will miss this game, which is a big deal because he’s an excellent cornerback. This caused some sharp action to come in on Denver. I still like the Chiefs, and I’m going to bet two units on them. The best line is -8.5 -108 at Bookmaker.

New England Patriots (8-4) at Buffalo Bills (7-4)
Line: Bills by 2.5. Total: 41.5.
Monday, Dec. 6, 8:15 PM


The Matchup. Edge: Bills.

This week on ESPN, we’re going to have awful announcers calling the shots instead the great preseason homers like Kevin Reilly, Ron Wolfley and Don Tollefson, inept ESPN guys Emmitt, Herman Edwards, and aloof people like Jay Cutler. Here’s what it would sound like if some of these dudes (and some special guests) were calling this game:

Reilly: Welcome to the city of Buffalo, which is known as the Land of the Losers because the last time my Philadelphia Eagles came up here, we won in a big-time blowout! Yeah, baby! Tonight, the Buffalo Bulls take on the New England Patriots. Guys, everyone is hyping this up to be the game of the week but unless I’m mistaken, Tom Brady always beats the Bulls. Kinda like my Philadelphia Eagles! I never knew that Tom Brady and I would ever have anything in common. Now, if only Mother would let me talk to girls, I would have a supermodel wife, too!

Emmitt: Han Mi-nyeo, I doubtfulness that you ever gonna have a supermodem wife. The best you can probably do are have sexual with old lady in the bathroom but don’t betrain her, or she gonna throw you off the bridge.

Reilly: Emmitt, I wouldn’t need to get thrown off the bridge because if I have sexual relations with a woman who is not cootie-free, I will get infested with cooties, like Mother has warned all these years. I have never touched a girl, and I have never developed a case of the cooties. Coincidence? I think not!

Tollefson: Kevin, for the millionth time, stop listening to your mommy! Besides, when I give my enslaved women the vaccine, I’ve included an immunity for cooties with every shot. I’m not sure if cooties are real, but you can never be too careful. If one of the women slaves who cook and clean for me have cooties, they’ll spread them everywhere!

Reilly: Maybe I can ask Mother if I can get vaccinated for cooties, but she’ll probably say that it’s still too dangerous to talk to women. Wait, what’s this? It’s Adam Schefter hiding under my desk again!

Schefter: Thanks, Kevin, I’ve been hiding here for five days, and I’ve been living off dingleberries I’ve found in the carpet. According to my sources, and I talked to Howie Roseman, so I’ve been given information to report this, the NFL’s first e-mail will be released today. And rest assured, I have been tested for the vaccine 719 times, and there were 716 negatives and three false positives, Kevin. I nearly had a heart attack when I saw those false positives, Kevin. Here’s the first e-mail. It’s from Kevin Reilly to Kevin Reilly’s mother: “Mother, will you please let me ask Alyssa Milano out on date? She’s pretty, and she might say yes. If she has cooties, we can use the vacuum cleaner on her to remove them.” This is disgusting, sexist language, and if I weren’t so scared of the virus, I’d call for your firing, Kevin. Back to you, Kevin!

Reilly: How dare you release my private e-mails! No one was supposed to see them! Mr. President, you’re in charge! Do something about this!

Joe Biden: My son Hunter wrote some e-mails where he took money from China, and he referred to someone as the Big Guy. I don’t know who that is, but I refer to my own private parts as the Big Guy, and he gets really big when a young woman sits on his lap and he sniffs her hair. And then she goes to kindergarten for six hours, and I’m left in my office with nothing to do but sign papers they give me end of quote.

Donald Trump: Excuse me, excuse me, did anyone just hear what Sleepy, Creepy Joe just said!? In one breath, he said that his son stole money from China and that he gets aroused when young girls sit on his lap. If I said this, the fake news mainstream media would never stop talking about me. They would say, “Donald Trump doesn’t get as big of a Big Guy as Sleepy Joe Biden because his private parts are as small as his hands.” This is very fake news. I have bigger private parts than Creepy Joe, believe me, no one knows about this more than I do, and everyone agrees. My private parts are so big, I call it, the Biggest Guy. Creepy Joe is only the Big Guy, but I’m the Biggest Guy, and if you ask anyone, they’ll tell you that Biggest Guy is the bigger than Big Guy, but not the fake news media. They’ll tell you I’m the Little Guy when I’m really the Biggest Guy, and everyone agrees.

Wolfley: DONALD, YOU ARE NOT BRAGGING AT ALL BECAUSE IN MY HOME WORLD, THE SMALLER YOUR PACKAGE IS, THE MORE ATTRACTIVE YOU ARE TO THE EIGHT OPPOSITE SEXES. THAT’S WHY WE CALL IT PUTTING SAUCE ON THE BOYS, DONALD. THE SAUCE SHRINKS THE BOYS.

Reilly: New Daddy, could I buy some of this sauce so I can put it on my boys? Maybe I can really impress Alyssa Milano.

Jay Cutler: Kid, I saw your junk when you asked to pee in the toilet the same time as me, and you’re packing like an eighth of an inch.

Alec Baldwin: BAN- wait a second, I was going to shoot- I mean operate my unloaded gun safely by shooting in your direction, but that’s so pathetic that I just can’t do it this week! Buhahahaha!

Reilly: Stop it guys, stop making fun of me! My no-no special place is larger than one-eighth, I swear! It’s at least one-fourth!

Charles Davis: Kevin, sounds like you’re talking about fractions, Kevin. Let’s discuss more fractions, Kevin. You mentioned one-eighth and one-fourth, Kevin. That’s a good start, Kevin. Want to know something in between those, Kevin? How about one-sixth, Kevin? Something less than one-eighth is one-tenth, Kevin. And something greater than one-fourth, Kevin, is one-third, Kevin. But we haven’t even gotten to one-half yet, Kevin. What do you think about one-half, Kevin? Kevin, there are fractions greater than one-half, Kevin. Let’s talk about two-thirds, Kevin. How about three-quarters, Kevin? Tell me your thoughts on five-eights, Kevin. Care to give your opinion on seventh-eights, Kevin? That’s seven times your manhood, Kevin!

Reilly: SHUT UP, CHARLES DAVIS, OR I WILL GET REVENGE ON YOU AND EVERYONE HERE, ESPECIALLY IF ALYSSA MILANO SAYS NO TO ME ASKING HER OUT ON A DATE, AND I WILL ASK IF MOTHER GIVES IT THE GREEN LIGHT! We’ll be back after this!

NEW ENGLAND OFFENSE: Mac Jones’ incredible rookie campaign continued this past Sunday against the Titans. The running game wasn’t working very well, but Jones was able to slice through the Tennessee secondary with ease. Jones made some mistakes – he missed Hunter Henry for a touchdown, had a potential pick-six that was dropped, and took two sacks to move out of field goal range – but he was excellent otherwise.

I’ll be shocked if Jones continues to play well in this game. No quarterback has enjoyed a great performance against the Bills this year, and that would be because of the league’s No. 1 pressure defense. Young quarterbacks deal very poorly with pressure, and Jones will be tested because he’ll constantly have defenders in his face.

On the bright side for the Patriots, they should be able to run the ball very well. Buffalo is just mediocre versus the rush, and this aspect wasn’t exploited by the Saints on Thanksgiving because Alvin Kamara and Mark Ingram were sidelined. The Patriots will do well with Damien Harris and Rhamondre Stevenson.

BUFFALO OFFENSE: Everyone knows that Bill Belichick is a defensive genius, but he’ll be tested in this matchup. Belichick is the master of erasing one aspect of an opposing offense, but what does he do here? Josh Allen has so many weapons at his disposal, ranging from Stefon Diggs, to Cole Beasley, to Emmanuel Sanders, to Dawson Knox. If Belichick removes Diggs, Allen will still have tons of talent available.

Furthermore, Belichick’s defenses have always been at their weakest against scrambling quarterbacks. That obviously includes Allen, who had a monster game the last time he played against the Patriots, going 27-of-36 for 320 yards and four touchdowns to go along with 35 rushing yards. The Bills made sure to emphasize Allen’s legs on Thanksgiving, and that should continue into this game.

RECAP: It’s incredible how much value we’re getting with the Bills. A month ago, this line would have been -6. Just a week ago, it was -3.5. Now, it’s -2.5, which is quite the change considering that the Bills are coming off an impressive, dominating performance on national TV.

Everyone is hyped to bet the Patriots, but they’re incredibly overrated right now. Consider their recent wins. They beat the Titans, 36-13, but Tennessee was very competitive in the game. The score turned out to be lopsided because the Titans had scoreless drives that ended at the New England 27, 32, 37 and 1. The Patriots beat the Falcons, 25-0, but Atlanta was 0-of-2 in the red zone and didn’t have Cordarrelle Patterson. New England crushed the injury-ravaged Browns, who nearly lost to the Lions the following week.

Don’t get me wrong; the Patriots are a very good team. However, they’re not the elite squad many think they are. Not yet, anyway. I personally made this spread -4.5. The computer model believes it should be -5. The Bills are the better team, and I love the value we’re getting with them. I’ll be betting them accordingly.

THURSDAY THOUGHTS: It looks like the sharps bet the Bills at -2.5 after the public pounded New England at +3.

SATURDAY NOTES: There are no injuries of note, so I still love the Bills. I’m going to lock in the -2.5 now because the sharps could easily take this to -3. The best -2.5 out there is for -112 vig at FanDuel.

SUNDAY MORNING NOTES: I’m glad I locked in this pick on Saturday because this line has risen with sharp action on the Bills.

FINAL THOUGHTS: There are insane winds in this game, and that should benefit the Bills because Josh Allen has the arm strength to cut through the wind. The sharps bet the Bills at -2.5, but not so much at -3. You can still get a reasonable -2.5 for -119 vig at Bookmaker.