NFL Picks Against the Spread: Week 13, 2021

Dallas Cowboys (7-4) at New Orleans Saints (5-6)
Line: Cowboys by 6. Total: 46.5.
Thursday, Dec. 2, 8:20 PM


The Matchup. Edge: Cowboys.

Week 12 Analysis: We had a winning week heading into Monday night. And then, the Seahawks were terrible. I’ll break down all the multi-unit picks once again:

Titans, 4 units (loss): The Patriots won 36-13, but this was right side, wrong result. The Titans had scoreless drives that ended at the New England 27, 32, 37 and 1. They missed a 44-yard field goal, lost two fumbles in field goal range and couldn’t get into the end zone at the goal line. The Patriots had a garbage touchdown at the end to make the margin way greater than it really should have been.

Giants, 4 units (win): Wrong side, right result? The Giants won 13-7, but the Eagles outplayed them by a wide margin when they weren’t constantly shooting themselves in the foot during key moments of this game.

Buccaneers, 4 units (win): Push side, right result? The Buccaneers should have won this game by three, but Leonard Fournette ran into the end zone at the end rather than pulling a Todd Gurley and taking a seat at the 1-yard line. The Colts almost sent this game into overtime as a result. I nearly lost my mind when Chester Rogers had that long kickoff return!

Panthers, 3 units (loss): Definitely the wrong side. Wow, Cam Newton looked completely washed. He didn’t get much help from his teammates, but he was awful.

Rams, 3 units (loss): I should have listened to the report about Matthew Stafford’s “chronic back issues.” I was more focused on Stafford supposedly practicing throughout the week. The Rams should be fined for the misleading practice report.

Seahawks, 5 units (loss): Russell Wilson wasn’t 100 percent, but he was much better than he was versus Arizona. Seattle’s horrible coaching was the culprit here. Also, I’m done betting on quarterbacks who may be injured. Never again.

So, a slightly losing week, but not the end of the world. Let’s bounce back in Week 13!

A couple of things: First, I’m going to remind you every week that my wife is due around Christmas, so there will be a week in December when my picks and/or recaps could be released late. Second, I just published a book called How the 2020 MVP Was Stolen:



This book is not completely about football; it’s more political than anything, so some of you will hate it. In fact, it wouldn’t surprise me if Amazon bans it at some point, so get it while you can. Nevertheless, if you want to support the site, please consider ordering a copy!

DALLAS OFFENSE: Both teams will have reinforcements back on the field this week. For the Cowboys, that means CeeDee Lamb and Amari Cooper will play after missing the previous game-and-a-half. Dak Prescott will be thrilled that he no longer has to throw to the likes of Cedrick Wilson and Noah Brown.

This seems like a great matchup for Dallas. The Saints struggle to contain explosive plays to receivers and tight ends with the exception of No. 1 options. It’s unclear whom the Saints will deem as the top choice between Lamb and Cooper. No matter which receiver the Saints choose, Prescott will be able to target the other player, as well as Michael Gallup and Dalton Schultz.

Tony Pollard will also be a big contributor in the passing game. The Saints contain the run very well, but allow considerable gains to receiving backs. That’ll be Pollard in the wake of the Cowboys announcing that they will be resting Ezekiel Elliott. This may be a blessing in disguise because there’s a chance Pollard is the better player.

NEW ORLEANS OFFENSE: The Saints wish they could have their top receiver returning as well, but they’ll have to settle for Alvin Kamara, Mark Ingram and perhaps Ryan Ramczyk. That’s actually a godsend for Trevor Siemian, who really struggled with his skeleton-crew offensive unit on Thanksgiving night.

Kamara’s presence will be huge against the Cowboys, who struggle against the run. Dallas is woeful at defending the middle of the field in general, so Kamara will definitely be needed. It would be nice if the Saints still have Adam Trautman to take advantage of this area, but he won’t be available.

At the very least, Siemian should be well protected if Ramczyk is available. The Cowboys only have Micah Parsons to generate pressure, and having both elite tackles available will make sure Siemian’s pocket is clean.

RECAP: The Cowboys have a big problem, which is that many of their coaches won’t be available due to testing positive for a cold. Teams have done well without their head coaches at times – see the Cardinals and Bears without Kliff Kingsbury and Matt Nagy, respectively – but in those instances, those coaches were the only ones missing. The Cowbys will be without numerous coaches, which could make it difficult to prepare for this game.

It should come as no surprise that the sharps have bet the Saints down upon hearing the news. This line was once +6, and now it has drifted downward off that number. Despite the lost value, this line still seems too high if the Saints will have Kamara and their offensive linemen available, especially when considering the coaching crisis. I’ll be on the Saints, with the unit count depending on what we see with the injury report.

Our Week 13 NFL Picks will be posted all day Tuesday. Follow @walterfootball for updates.

THURSDAY THOUGHTS: We were waiting on news about Alvin Kamara, Terron Armstead and Ryan Ramczyk. All are out. That’s huge. I have no idea how the Saints are going to score beyond some Taysom Hill runs. The Cowboys are the play, though I wouldn’t go crazy with this because they’re missing numerous coaches.

FINAL THOUGHTS: There’s some serious FOMO betting right now from the public on the Cowboys, driving this line up to -6.5. I would not go crazy with this game because the Cowboys are missing so many coaches and could be disjointed. I’ve been wondering all day how the Saints would move the chains without their tackles, but the Cowboys have a mediocre pass rush outside of Micah Parsons (15th in pressure rate), and they’re weak to the run. I think the Saints should be able to pick up first downs on the ground, and with this inflated number, they could potentially cover. I’m going to change my pick to the Saints, and I’m going to buy up to +7 because that’s such a key number. The best +7 out there is at Bookmaker (-119). I’m not feeling confident in this pick, and if the Cowboys had their full coaching staff, I’d probably be on them, but this is a high number considering the circumstances.

Minnesota Vikings (5-6) at Detroit Lions (0-10-1)
Line: Vikings by 7. Total: 46.5.
Sunday, Dec. 5, 1:00 PM


The Matchup. Edge: Vikings.

My overrated-underrated feature was posted in this spot the past couple of years. I thought it would be better if there was less clutter on this page, so I set up a new NFL Overrated and Underrated Teams page that will be updated every Monday. I have overrated and underrated teams listed there, and some may shock you!

MINNESOTA OFFENSE: The Vikings are favored by a touchdown despite not having Dalvin Cook available. However, Alexander Mattison is a terrific backup and is only a slight downgrade compared to Cook. He can dominate in this matchup, as the Lions have a poor run defense.

As bad as Detroit’s ground defense is, the team is even worse in the secondary. The Lions had issues dealing with an Allen Robinson-less passing attack last week, and now they’ll have to stop Stefon Diggs and Adam Thielen. It would help if they were able to get Trey Flowers back from injury. Their pass rush is at least mediocre with Flowers on the field, so Flowers and the rest of the front would be able to occasionally rattle Kirk Cousins, who will look to line up under center on each play for a change.

DETROIT OFFENSE: Speaking of rattling the quarterback, the Vikings have the No. 2 pressure defense in the NFL. I thought they would have issues getting to the quarterback last week because they were missing so many defensive linemen, but they got after Jimmy Garoppolo rather well. They should be able to apply ample pressure on Jared Goff, whose oblique injury may not be as much of an issue this week.

Goff has terrible receivers, so he likes to attack the middle of the field by throwing to T.J. Hockenson and D’Andre Swift. The problem here is that the Vikings defend the middle of the field extremely well. They limited George Kittle to just one catch last week, so I can’t see Hockenson doing much. Swift, meanwhile, is injured, so Jamaal Williams will start. Williams is a fine runner, but he’s not the same receiving threat Swift happens to be. He also doesn’t offer any game-breaking potential like Swift does.

That said, Williams should be able to run the ball well if the Lions don’t fall too far behind. The Vikings are woeful against the run, though they should have Dalvin Tomlinson back from his illness to help.

RECAP: The dynamics of how the Vikings play indicate that the Lions are the right side. Minnesota almost always keeps games close, with most of its affairs this year being decided in the final 60 seconds. This includes a near-loss to Detroit at home earlier in the season.

This is a rough matchup for the Lions, however. The Vikings, as mentioned, are exceptional at defending the middle of the field. It was a total fluke that Detroit played closely to Minnesota in the previous meeting because the Vikings had some terrible luck in the red zone. Had Minnesota been more efficient deep in Detroit territory, the game would’ve been a blowout. The Vikings outgained the Lions, 385-288, and averaged 1.4 more yards per play. We’ve recently seen decent teams like the Eagles and Bengals come into Detroit and destroy the Lions, and the Vikings, coming off a loss, figure to do the same thing.

There’s a chance the Vikings could be caught looking ahead to Thursday night’s affair versus Pittsburgh. I think there’d be a good chance of that occurring if they weren’t coming off a loss, but at 5-6, they can’t really afford many other screw-ups.

THURSDAY THOUGHTS: I doubt I’ll be betting this game barring any injury surprises. We haven’t seen the sharps take a stance on this yet.

SATURDAY NOTES: Eric Kendricks landed on the injury list with a missed practice Thursday. The Vikings’ defense is completely different without him, so I’ll be on Detroit if he’s ruled out prior to kickoff.

SATURDAY NOTES II: Kendricks is out. That’s a huge deal because he’s the heart and soul of Minnesota’s defense. I’m switching my pick to the Lions as a result.

FINAL THOUGHTS: Not only is Kendricks out; Anthony Barr will miss this game as well! Minnesota’s defense is a mess, which is why the sharps bet on the Lions at +7.5. I’m going to put a unit on them. I don’t fully trust the Lions, but I think they’re the right side. The best line is +7 -108 at Bookmaker or FanDuel.

Arizona Cardinals (9-2) at Chicago Bears (4-7)
Line: Cardinals by 7.5. Total: 42.
Sunday, Dec. 5, 1:00 PM


The Matchup. Edge: Unknown.

VEGAS UPDATE: I’ll be posting how the Vegas sportsbooks have done the previous week in this spot. The highest-bet sides were 34-42 in 2020 and 34-27 so far this year. As you can tell, the sportsbooks have taken a beating.

Here are the teams getting the most bets last week:

Bills -6

Falcons -1.5

Panthers -1

Eagles -3

Chargers -3

The highest-bet teams were 2-3 this past week. The sportsbooks had a great week with the Cowboys’ loss ruining many teasers.

Here are the teams getting the most bets this week:

Cardinals -8

Ravens -3.5

Vikings -7

Buccaneers -11

Colts -8.5

Bengals -2.5

Dolphins -3

Once again, mostly road favorites. I’d chide the public for not learning their lesson, but they’ve won with these all year (prior to Week 9, that is).

ARIZONA OFFENSE: It’s unclear if Kyler Murray will play. There’s a decent chance he will, but it’s unknown if he’ll be able to take the field. Furthermore, Murray may not be 100 percent. He could struggle to scramble off his ankle injury. I’d normally talk about waiting to see the injury report, but those cannot be trusted any longer.

I’ve gotten burned so many times with these injured quarterbacks, I’m going to assume they’re hurt until I see them performing at 100 percent. Thus, Murray could have trouble moving the ball if he plays, especially if DeAndre Hopkins is sidelined. Luckily for Murray, he won’t be battling a good defense. The Bears apply no heat on the quarterback, ranking next-to-last in pressure rate. They also have problems in the secondary, so Murray will be able to connect with his other receivers.

The Bears are better against the run, though only marginally. We recently saw Elijah Mitchell gash them for 137 yards and a touchdown on 18 attempts, so James Conner will be able to carry the offense if Murray is limited and Hopkins isn’t available.

CHICAGO OFFENSE: It sounds like Justin Fields will be available for this game, though it’s unclear if he’ll be 100 percent either. He had a few cracked ribs, so his scrambling ability should at least be fine. That will be key in this matchup.

I say this because the Cardinals have a horrific run defense. They used to clamp down on ground attacks at a medium level, but that changed once J.J. Watt suffered an injury. Arizona now surrenders big gains on the ground to everyone, so Fields and David Montgomery will pick up large chunks of yardage.

Whether Fields can capitalize on that depends on his health and how he handles the blitz. He should have Allen Robinson back from injury, while Darnell Mooney has developed into a No. 1 receiver. However, Fields has struggled versus the blitz in his young career thus far.

RECAP: I guess we’re just assuming Murray and Hopkins will be healthy because the Cardinals have opened as 7.5-point favorites in Chicago. The line has since risen to -8. While there’s a good chance both will play, it’s also possible that neither will be 100 percent.

I’ve seen enough of hobbled quarterbacks that I don’t want to bet on the Cardinals unless I know Murray is perfectly healthy. Thus, this is Chicago or nothing for me. I’m leaning toward a bet on Chicago, believe it or not. The Cardinals, with no Watt and a potentially injured Murray/Hopkins do not deserve to be priced this highly against a competitive team. The Bears aren’t good, or anything, but we’ve seen them keep games close against the Steelers and 49ers.

Also, the Cardinals have bigger fish to fry. They have to battle the Rams next week in a game that could lock up the NFC West for them. They’re huge favorites here, so I don’t think they’ll necessarily be focused for Chicago, which should allow the Bears to sneak within the number despite Fields’ cracked ribs and struggles against the blitz.

THURSDAY THOUGHTS: Kyler Murray and DeAndre Hopkins were both limited in practice, but as we’ve seen, that means very little these days. It’s worth noting that there was some sharp action coming in on Chicago on Thursday morning, so that might mean someone knows something about the Murray and Hopkins injuries.

SATURDAY NOTES: I have no idea what to make of this game. Kyler Murray is a game-time decision after being questionable all week. The same goes for DeAndre Hopkins, except he missed one practice. Justin Pugh and Byron Murphy could also miss this game. However, the Bears will be without Khalil Mack, Akiem Hicks and probably Roquan Smith. The depleted front seven will have trouble stopping the Cardinals, as long as Arizona is healthy, that is.

FINAL THOUGHTS: Kyler Murray, DeAndre Hopkins and Byron Murphy are all active. Are they healthy? No idea! I find it hard to bet either side. The sharps bet the Bears at +8.

Tampa Bay Buccaneers (8-3) at Atlanta Falcons (5-6)
Line: Buccaneers by 11. Total: 50.5.
Sunday, Dec. 5, 1:00 PM


The Matchup. Edge: Buccaneers.

HATE MAIL: I will be posting hate mail here. We got just a bit this week:

I’m replying to a couple of hate mailers in this exchange:



You guys don’t know the hardships I’ve endured over the years when people assume I run a medical practice just because I’m a doctor. One day I hope that doctors everywhere are judged by their profession; not by the existence of their medical practice.

Not sure if this qualifies as hate mail, but it’s worth posting:



I’m sure Puddles is a white man who wants to take yet another thing away from Native Americans. That’s just evil.

This guy is not nearly the conspiracy theorist I am:



Perhaps they rigged the game in favor of the Lions because many people like this guy would think that it would be too unbelievable.

And finally, here’s the extended response from a post I showed you last week:



Man, I have some evil people in my comment board. One guy assumes all doctors run medical practices. Another wants to keep robbing from Native Americans. And this dude wants to kill old ladies!

TAMPA BAY OFFENSE: How are the Falcons going to stop the Buccaneers? Atlanta has one of the worst defenses in the NFL. It has a bottom-five pressure rate and is just mediocre against the run. Its secondary is terrible and is no match for Tom Brady and all of his weapons. We know this because Brady was 24-of-36 for 276 yards and five touchdowns in a Week 2 blowout victory over the Falcons.

Antonio Brown and Ali Marpet played in that game, but if they’re sidelined again, their absences will be the only difference this time. It shouldn’t matter, as Brady will have an easy time attacking the middle of the field. The Falcons are woeful against tight ends, so Rob Gronkowski figures to have another dominating performance.

Leonard Fournette, meanwhile, won’t exactly match his production from last week. As mentioned, the Falcons are better against the run than the pass, though Fournette could still pick up enough yardage to make Brady comfortable on passing downs.

ATLANTA OFFENSE: While the Falcons are in the bottom five in pressure rate, the Buccaneers are in the top 10. This is an obvious problem for the Falcons if you’ve seen their anemic offensive line play this year. Matt Ryan won’t have much protection.

However, there is some hope for Atlanta. The Buccaneers could be down a couple of defenders, as Jamel Dean and Devin White got hurt against Indianapolis. Tampa Bay also struggles to cover tight ends, which means Kyle Pitts could have one of his better games of his rookie campaign. Cordarrelle Patterson figures to be a factor as a receiver as well, though he won’t get much on the ground against Tampa’s stalwart ground defense.

RECAP: The Buccaneers will crush the Falcons if they’re focused. We’ve seen Atlanta attempt to battle the upper-echelon teams in the NFL recently and fail miserably. They were destroyed by the Cowboys and Patriots recently. They’re no match for Tampa.

However, the Buccaneers, who already beat the Falcons, will be taking on the Bills next week. There’s a good chance they’ll be more focused for that affair, so if they’re flat, the Falcons will have a chance to cover this high spread. Besides, the Buccaneers have yet to defeat an opponent by more than seven on the road. That could easily change in this contest, but it’s still worth noting because the Buccaneers aren’t necessarily the easy money most people believe them to be. They aren’t at full strength – they could be missing up to five starters – and I don’t want to lay double digits with a team under those conditions.

THURSDAY THOUGHTS: The two Tampa players who got hurt this past Sunday, Jamel Dean and Devin White, both practiced Wednesday. There goes that narrative! I may switch to the Buccaneers later in the week.

SATURDAY NOTES: Everyone seems to be back for the Buccaneers, even Carlton Davis. Only Antonio Brown and Jordan Whitehead will be sidelined. I don’t have a strong feel for this game. The Buccaneers could demolish Atlanta if they’re focused, but they could be looking ahead to playing the Bills.

FINAL THOUGHTS: So much for Jordan Whitehead being sidelined. He’ll play, so the Buccaneers have everyone back except Antonio Brown. If they’re focused, they’ll kill Atlanta. The sharps haven’t touched this game.

Indianapolis Colts (6-6) at Houston Texans (2-9)
Line: Colts by 10. Total: 45.5.
Sunday, Dec. 5, 1:00 PM


The Matchup. Edge: None.

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INDIANAPOLIS OFFENSE: The Colts dominated the Texans in their first meeting this year. They won 31-3, averaging a whopping 3.3 more yards per play than Houston. The Texans’ defense was miserable, failing to stop Carson Wentz’s deep passes and Jonathan Taylor’s runs. Taylor dashed for 145 yards and two touchdowns on only 14 carries!

Houston’s run defense has not improved since then. The Texans couldn’t even stop Andrew Walter last week. The Jets’ fourth-string running back is actually named Austin Walter, but he’s such an unknown that I believed it was Andrew Walter before verifying. That’s how bad the Texans are versus the rush.

The Texans can’t stop the pass either. Their secondary is in shambles, and they rank in the bottom five in pressure rate. Wentz will once again attack their secondary successfully.

HOUSTON OFFENSE: The primary difference between this matchup and the first meeting is that Tyrod Taylor will be playing for the Texans. Davis Mills drew the start last time, and he was anemic. He accumulated garbage yardage, but never threatened the Colts. In fact, it was a rare event that he crossed midfield.

Taylor is obviously better, but he can’t perform well under the current conditions. The Texans are missing several offensive linemen, so they can’t pass protect at all. The Jets dominated in the trenches this past Sunday, resulting in the Texans averaging just 3.7 yards per play against them.

The Colts, however, don’t get to the quarterback at all. This is surprising, but they rank last in pressure rate by a large margin. So, this could be a rare occasion in which the Texans actually have some success offensively, though I wouldn’t expect an explosive result or anything.

RECAP: The Colts lose to good teams (often blowing double-digit leads in the process) and sit on bad teams that can’t stop the run. The Texans qualify as the latter. They’re a miserable football team that happens to be ranked 24th in yards-per-carry allowed. I’ll bring up the Austin Walter thing again, not because he’s my namesake, but because it’s unbelievable that the Texans allowed Walter to trample over them at times last week. That’s how bad they are.

That said, the Colts have some major problems. They’re missing both of their safeties, and they don’t get after the quarterback at all. Taylor will have a chance of getting the back-door cover as a result.

Furthermore, we’re getting some great line value with the Texans. The advance spread was Indianapolis -7, and yet it’s -9.5 now for some reason. I don’t know why the line moved 2.5 points, but it’s significant. I thought this spread was high enough to begin with at -7! I personally made this line -5.5 because I don’t like the Colts at all. They had a misleading win against an unfocused Bills team; otherwise, their wins aren’t very impressive. More recently, they were outgained by the Jaguars at home, winning that game only because of a blocked punt returned for a touchdown.

With the public pounding the Colts into oblivion, I’m going to bet the Texans based on the line value and Indianapolis injury situation.

THURSDAY THOUGHTS: DeForest Buckner, Quenton Nelson, Ryan Kelly and Darius Leonard all missed Wednesday’s practice. These are four of the Colts’ best players. Their absences will make the Texans more appealing, especially at this double-digit point spread.

SATURDAY NOTES: I’m on the Texans, provided Brandin Cooks plays. Cooks missed practice during the week with an illness, but returned to a limited practice Friday. Cooks could pull a Lamar Jackson and miss this game, and if he does, the Texans won’t have any deep threats. If Cook can go, the Texans are a great value at +10. They were +10 earlier in the year at Indianapolis despite Davis Mills starting. Now, they’re +10 at home with Tyrod Taylor, so this spread makes no sense.

SATURDAY NOTES II: Two pieces of news: Cooks is expected to play, according to Texans beat writer Aaron Wilson. Also, center Ryan Kelly is out with the virus. He’s an important part of the offense, and there’s a chance that someone else in close contact with him could test positive as well. Even if not, the Texans look very appealing at the +10. As mentioned Saturday morning, this line makes no sense to me. I’m going to increase my unit count to four, and I’m going to lock this in before any possible sharp action moves this spread down.

FINAL THOUGHTS: I’m surprised the sharps haven’t bet the Texans. There were no further illnesses for the Colts, but this spread still makes no sense to me. The best line remains +10 in most sportsbooks.

Philadelphia Eagles (5-7) at New York Jets (3-8)
Line: Eagles by 5.5. Total: 44.
Sunday, Dec. 5, 1:00 PM


The Matchup. Edge: None.

If you missed it, I have an NFL Betting Props page. I’ll be adding to it as the season progresses!

Also, Confidence Pool Picks will return. They’ll be posted by Wednesday morning each week!

PHILADELPHIA OFFENSE: We can add a new injured quarterback to our ever-growing list, as Jalen Hurts is dealing with an ankle issue. He could play, but with a bye week coming up, Nick Sirianni could opt to rest him. If so, we’ll see Gardner Minshew make the start.

If Hurts plays, it’s likely that he won’t be 100 percent. His bum ankle could limit his mobility, which is a huge part of his game. The Eagles have been reliant on that as well as the rushing attack during their recent winning streak prior to battling the Giants. However, the Jets have a solid defensive front and should be able to limit Philadelphia’s ground game.

The Jets are far weaker to the pass because they can’t get to the quarterback consistently, and they’re missing some starters in their secondary. The Eagles aren’t really built to take advantage of this, as Hurts is an inconsistent passer who has only one viable wide receiver at his disposal.

NEW YORK OFFENSE: The Jets figure to have a limited offense as well, though that could be said every week because Zach Wilson has been underwhelming in his rookie campaign. Wilson has been especially bad against blitz-heavy teams and opponents whose coaches are defensive masterminds.

Neither can be said of the Eagles. Philadelphia blitzes at one of the lowest rates in the NFL, which will help Wilson. The rookie won’t have to battle anyone remotely resembling Bill Belichick, Sean McDermott, or even Lovie Smith this week. Defensive coordinator Jonathan Gannon has been very underwhelming in his role thus far.

One area where the Jets can have success on this side of the ball is attacking the middle of the field. The Eagles’ linebackers can’t cover well, so it’s a shame for the Jets that Michael Carter is sidelined. However, Wilson will be able to move the chains by connecting with Ty Johnson and his tight ends.

RECAP: It feels weird to see Philadelphia in a position like this. The team hadn’t been favored by more than a field goal this year until last week when it crashed and burned against the Giants. Now, the Eagles are favored by nearly a touchdown, which is a completely new dynamic.

I can’t say I like this situation for the Eagles. They’ve been able to win some favorable matchups, but I don’t see why they would beat the Jets by a touchdown. They seldom blitz, so Wilson won’t be rattled. Meanwhile, New York’s defensve line will create some problems for the Eagles’ running game. The cherry on top is Hurts’ injury.

I’m going to bet the Jets. That may seem like a dubious wager, but New York has beaten the Bengals and Titans at home this year, and both of those teams are better than Philadelphia. Both also had healthy quarterbacks. Perhaps Hurts will be 100 percent – we’ll learn nothing from the injury report, of course – but there’s a greater chance that he’s limited in some capacity, which makes the Jets pretty appealing.

THURSDAY THOUGHTS: Jalen Hurts practiced Wednesday, which is a good sign for his availability. However, he was limited, so he may not be 100 percent. Still, this line moved up to +7, creating more value on the Jets.

SATURDAY NOTES: Jalen Hurts was limited in practice all week. He could be hindered by his injury, but then again, he could be 100 percent because it’s impossible to tell anything from the injury report. I still like the Jets, but I’m going to reduce the unit count to two.

SATURDAY NOTES II: Hurts is out and Gardner Minshew will start. If you can still get the Jets at +6.5 or +7, I’d have the same two-unit wager. However, I was on the Jets because the Eagles were using an injured quarterback. Minshew is healthy, and he’s more accurate than Hurts. I don’t like the Jets very much at +4.5 with Minshew at the helm.

FINAL THOUGHTS: This line has moved to +5.5, and I still don’t like the Jets with Minshew starting over Hurts. The Eagles will be able to attack the middle of the field with Minshew, who is healthy, unlike Hurts. The sharps haven’t been betting this game.

Los Angeles Chargers (6-5) at Cincinnati Bengals (7-4)
Line: Bengals by 3.5. Total: 50.
Sunday, Dec. 5, 1:00 PM


The Matchup. Edge: Chargers.

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SAN ANGELES OFFENSE: I’m glad I discovered Justin Herbert’s dichotomy regarding his play versus the blitz; otherwise, I’d be losing my mind right now. Herbert was brilliant versus the Steelers two weeks ago, yet he struggled against a Denver defense missing several starters this past Sunday. If you’re wondering why this happened, it’s because Herbert’s play is anemic versus teams that blitz frequently.

The Bengals generate good pressure on the quarterback, but they don’t blitz often, so this is a favorable matchup for Herbert. He and his terrific weapons will bounce back with a strong performance, especially if guard Matt Feiler returns from injury after missing last week’s game.

Austin Ekeler, in particular, should have a big performance. I don’t trust the Cincinnati linebackers to be able to stop him. The Bengals are just mediocre against the run, so Ekeler will have success on the ground as well.

CINCINNATI OFFENSE: The Chargers place lots of pressure on opposing quarterbacks as well. They do so without blitzing at a very high rate, which is crucial in a matchup against Joe Burrow because Burrow, unlike Herbert, devours the blitz.

Burrow, as a result, could have trouble keeping the chains moving, especially with Asante Samuel Jr. due to return from a concussion. Samuel and Chris Harris figure to limit Burrow’s aerial threats.

Of course, the Chargers will also have to deal with Joe Mixon, who has been a monster this year. Mixon has made great strides and has become one of the best running backs in the NFL. This will be an issue for the Chargers, who can’t stop the run at all.

RECAP: Talk about an overreaction! Heading into Week 12, the advance spread was Cincinnati -1.5. The Chargers were coming off an impressive showing against the Steelers on national TV. They were hyped up, but crashed and burned in a very difficult matchup at Denver. The Bengals, meanwhile, trashed the overrated Steelers. Now, the spread is Cincinnati -3 despite the Bengals being favored by far fewer points over Pittsburgh than the Chargers were seven days earlier.

I love the value we’re getting with the Chargers, and I also like the matchup. It’s always nice when Herbert won’t be going up against a team that doesn’t blitz very often because he’ll be at his best. Burrow, meanwhile, will feel some heat from the Charger pass rushers. It wasn’t too long ago that Burrow was forced into numerous turnovers by Cleveland’s defense.

My only concern here is the status of Feiler because his absence would create a situation in which multiple offensive linemen are sidelined. If he plays, the Chargers will be one of my top plays this week.

THURSDAY THOUGHTS: The two injuries I’m monitoring are to Matt Feiler and Asante Samuel Jr. They were limited and DNP on Wednesday, respectively. The Bengals, meanwhile, suddenly have some offensive line woes themselves.

SATURDAY NOTES: Asante Samuel Jr. won’t play, but at least Matt Feiler will return to action. The Bengals are worse off in the injury department. Center Trey Hopkins has already been ruled out, while Riley Reiff is questionable after failing to practice all week. The Chargers’ pass rush is going to dominate in the trenches. This will be a five-unit wager. I’m going to lock this in now at the +3.5 -124 line at Bookmaker. This spread could fall if Reiff is ruled out, so I wanted to get a reasonable +3.5 just in case the Bengals end up winning by three.

TEASER ADDED: I’m going to tease Chargers +9 with Redskins +8.5. I’d be shocked if either team gets blown out, and we get the key numbers of three, four, six and seven with both sides.

FOR-FUN PARLAY: My for-fun parlay is back, and I’m sure everyone is going to love this one. I’m putting together all the lucrative alternative lines of my top picks: Chargers +4.5, Giants +7.5, Steelers +6.5, Rams moneyline, Seahawks +4.5, Bills moneyline.

FINAL THOUGHTS: No Riley Reiff or Trey Hopkins. The Bengals are down multiple offensive linemen, so the Chargers look great today. The sharps have been hitting the Chargers hard Sunday morning.

New York Giants (4-7) at Miami Dolphins (5-7)
Line: Dolphins by 6.5. Total: 40.
Sunday, Dec. 5, 1:00 PM


The Matchup. Edge: None.

If you’ve followed this site for a while, you might remember that I like to respond to my spam mails. It all started numerous years ago, when a man named Jon Wire from the “United Bank of Africoan” promised me an ATM card of some sort, so I responded as a man named Mister Compassion Chuck Norris, who was raised by wolves. The following season, I received e-mails from Richard Held and Loon Bruce, who told me I won a Facebook Award, which comes with a “lump sum pay out of (750,000.00 GBP).” Pretending to be Matthew Millen Kim, I sent out my application and fake money.

I’ve been messing around with spammers ever since, pretending to be Harvey Weinstein, Joe Biden, Ramsay Bolton and Walter White. I have plenty of Spam Mails this year, so check them out if you want to see me screw with spammers. I’ll have new ones every week this year!

NEW YORK OFFENSE: I discussed how Justin Herbert plays much worse against the blitz in the previous game capsule. The same can be said of Daniel Jones, who didn’t self-destruct last week because the Eagles don’t blitz at all.

The Dolphins certainly blitz often, as Lamar Jackson discovered in a surprising Thursday night loss a few weeks ago. Jones has thrown for nine touchdowns and three interceptions when not blitzed this year, and one touchdown and four picks when blitzed. Jones simply hasn’t developed this part of his game yet, and it’ll end up costing him against a Miami squad that is second in blitz rate.

The way to beat the Dolphins is by pounding the ball into their poor run defense. The Giants, however, don’t run the ball nearly enough with Saquon Barkley. I thought this could change last week with a new offensive coordinator, but despite holding the lead for most of the afternoon, New York gave Barkley just 13 carries. It’s a good thing they didn’t spend an early draft pick on him, or anything.

MIAMI OFFENSE: Unlike Jones, Tua Tagovailoa has shown major signs of growth. He seems to be getting better each week. He still has an issue with an occasional turnover, but he can be deadly accurate. He was 27-of-31 last week despite missing two of his top three receivers.

There’s a chance Tagovailoa might get DeVante Parker or Will Fuller back this week, but even if he doesn’t, he should still do well against the Giants. New York has a talented secondary, but has a bottom-10 pressure rate. Young quarterbacks like Tagovailoa can struggle when the pocket is collapsing, but Tagovailoa won’t really have to worry about that in this matchup.

The Dolphins have some other positive edges, mostly pertaining to the Giants’ poor linebacking corps. Mike Gesicki should have a nice rebound performance, while Myles Gaskin will do well as both a runner and a receiver out of the backfield.

RECAP: I’ve been calling the Dolphins overrated, but I like them in this game. They match up so well against Jones, who could capsize against their heavy blitz. Tagovailoa, meanwhile, figures to thrive against a defense that won’t be able to take advantage of his poor offensive line.

I’m aware that we lost a bit of line value with this spread moving from the advance line of -2.5 to -3. However, I think the movement is justified because the Giants are a horrid team. They’re 4-7, but their previous two victories have come against teams that overlooked them (Raiders, Eagles), and yet they were outgained by a wide margin in both victories. In fact, the only team they’ve outgained since Week 4 was Carolina. They were simply lucky that both the Raiders and Eagles made sloppy mistakes against them.

With a bye on the horizon, I don’t see why the Dolphins would look past the Giants. I plan on betting a couple of units on them.

THURSDAY THOUGHTS: There was news that Mike Glennon would start this game, causing this line to pop to -5. However, Daniel Jones returned to practice, causing the line to drop. Are people insane? Why does anyone think there’s a difference between Jones and Glennon? Jones stinks! In fact, Glennon is the better option in this game because he’s great against the blitz, while Jones is terrible against it. I’ll be betting the Giants if Glennon starts. I’ll stick with Miami if it’s Jones.

SATURDAY NOTES: I don’t understand this spread. In what world are the Dolphins 6.5 points better than the Giants on any field? Mike Glennon is starting for the Giants, but as discussed earier, Glennon is better suited for this matchup because he’s much better against the blitz than Daniel Jones is. I’m going to bet four units on New York.

FINAL THOUGHTS: The sharps pounded the Giants on Sunday morning, perhaps realizing how much better the Giants’ outlook is with Mike Glennon over Daniel Jones. All the normal +6.5s are gone, but you can get +6.5 -115 at Bovada.