NFL Picks Against the Spread: Week 12, 2021

Chicago Bears (3-7) at Detroit Lions (0-9-1)
Line: Bears by 2. Total: 41.5.
Thursday, Nov. 25, 12:30 PM


The Matchup. Edge: Bears.

Week 11 Analysis: Our November Pick of the Month hit, but some other plays lost due to frustrating circumstances. I’ll break down all the multi-unit picks once again:

Falcons, 3 units (loss): There were some bogus scores at the end, so the 25-0 final score was misleading. The Falcons scored no points in two trips to the red zone, which killed their chances of covering. Had they turned those two red zone trips into 10 points, they may have beaten the spread.

Browns, 3 units (loss): How did the Browns not cover this spread? I didn’t know until I re-watched the game and noticed that the officials called numerous shady holding penalties on long Nick Chubb runs when the score was 13-0. When the lead was trimmed down to 13-10, the calls disappeared. If it’s eventually revealed in several years that someone on Clay Martin’s crew fixed this game, I’ll be the least-surprised person on the planet.

Jaguars, 4 units (loss): I loved the value with the Jaguars, but I ignored their deficiencies in covering the middle of the field versus a team that attacks that area frequently. This was a horrible pick.

Redskins, 8 units (win): That was quite the overreaction to Cam Newton, eh?

Ravens, 3 units (loss): Ugh! Lamar Jackson wasn’t even on the injury report Friday, but he missed this game. The Ravens beat the Bears by three without Jackson, so surely they could’ve won by at least four with Jackson. This was a rough loss.

Eagles, 3 units (win): Never in doubt, but I’m kicking myself for not locking in this pick at -2.5. I would have added another unit at that line.

We were also unlucky to lose two units with the Jets +4. This was an even game, yardage-wise, but the Jets had drives end at the 5-, 22- and 36-yard lines with no points. Hopefully we have better luck on Thanksgiving and the ensuing weekend!

A couple of things: First, I’m going to remind you every week that my wife is due around Christmas, so there will be a week in December when my picks and/or recaps could be released late. Second, I just published a book called How the 2020 MVP Was Stolen:



This book is not completely about football; it’s more political than anything, so some of you will hate it. In fact, it wouldn’t surprise me if Amazon bans it at some point, so get it while you can. Nevertheless, if you want to support the site, please consider ordering a copy!

CHICAGO OFFENSE: It’s currently unclear who will start at quarterback for the Bears, though it’s sounding like it’s going to be Andy Dalton. Justin Fields hurt his ankle on a third-down scramble Sunday, so it might be difficult for him to take the field on such short rest. If he can’t go, Dalton proved that he’s more than capable of being a viable replacement.

Neither Fields nor Dalton will have a difficult matchup at all, especially if Trey Flowers is sidelined again. The Lions can’t generate much pressure without Flowers, so either Chicago quarterback will have plenty of time in the pocket to locate the emerging Darnell Mooney or one of the tight ends.

The Bears will be able to pick up big chunks of yardage on the ground. David Montgomery didn’t run the ball very much last week, but he’ll be able to trample the hapless Lions ground defense. Nick Chubb gained 130 yards last week, and that’s even with all the bogus holding penalties negating many of his long gains.

DETROIT OFFENSE: The Lions also have a quarterback question mark. Jared Goff is dealing with an oblique injury, which could keep him out of action for the second week in a row. If so, Tim Boyle will make start No. 2.

It’s a miracle that Boyle covered the spread last week, though “miracle” could be defined as corrupt officiating. Boyle had no business being in a close game, as Detroit’s 10 points came on a fluky long run and a Baker Mayfield interception. Boyle is extremely fortunate he threw just two picks when he easily could’ve tossed five. Perhaps Chicago will convert those potential give-aways.

The only hope the Lions have of moving the chains is via D’Andre Swift and T.J. Hockenson. The Bears have some defensive liabilities, but I wouldn’t expect Detroit to have much offensive success.

RECAP: I liked the Bears much more on the advance spread of -3. This line has risen to -3.5, which is far less appealing because Chicago winning by three is one of the most likely results of this game.

Despite losing value, I’m still going to be on Chicago, assuming Boyle makes the start. I can’t see Boyle having a high success rate of covering the spread, even against sub-par teams like Chicago. We’ll see what happens with the injury report, but I may end up betting a low amount on the Bears.

Our Week 11 NFL Picks will be posted all day Tuesday. Follow @walterfootball for updates.

FINAL THOUGHTS: I am so torn on this game. If it weren’t for the Matt Nagy news, I’d be all over the Bears as a fade of an injured Jared Goff and a Detroit roster down multiple players at numerous positions. However, we’ve seen teams quit on lame-duck coaches many times throughout the years. Perhaps it’ll be different this time because this is a Thanksgiving affair, but the Bears think Nagy could be fired after this game, so I can’t say for sure if they’ll be trying hard. However, George McCaskey told the players and coaches Nagy wouldn’t be fired. Whether they believe it or not is another story. The Bears have never fired a head coach during the middle of the season, so perhaps it’s the truth. After saying on the podcast I would go with the Lions, I’ve decided to stick with Chicago. As you can tell, I’m not confident about this! The sharps are on the Lions, and the best spread is -2 -108 at Bookmaker.