NFL Picks Against the Spread: Week 12, 2021

NFL Picks (Preseason 2021): 6-5 (-$350)
NFL Picks (Week 1, 2021): 7-9 (-$1,320)
NFL Picks (Week 2, 2021): 7-9 (-$2,340)
NFL Picks (Week 3, 2021): 8-8 (-$100)
NFL Picks (Week 4, 2021): 12-4 (+$1,400)
NFL Picks (Week 5, 2021): 5-10-1 (-$1,770)
NFL Picks (Week 6, 2021): 7-7 (+$1,025)
NFL Picks (Week 7, 2021): 6-7 (-$455)
NFL Picks (Week 8, 2021): 5-10 (-$1,210)
NFL Picks (Week 9, 2021): 8-6 (+$660)
NFL Picks (Week 10, 2021): 9-5 (+$675)
NFL Picks (Week 11, 2021): 7-8 (-$595)

2021 NFL Picks: 87-88-1 (-$4,380)
NFL Picks (2020): 138-124-7 (+$9,350)
NFL Picks (2019): 148-128-9 (+$1,200)
NFL Picks (2018): 140-134-12 (+$845)
NFL Picks (2017): 137-147-10 (-$4,300)
NFL Picks (2016): 148-127-10 (+$780)
NFL Picks (2015): 133-138-10 (-$3,215)
NFL Picks (2014): 143-133-7 (-$1,885)
NFL Picks (2013): 144-131-8 (+$7,825)
NFL Picks (2012): 130-145-8 (-$7,445)
NFL Picks (2011): 137-133-12 (-$1,335)
NFL Picks (2010): 144-131-8 (+$5,880)
NFL Picks (2009): 151-124-9 (+$4,235)
NFL Picks (2008): 136-125-6 (+$6,105)
NFL Picks (2007): 162-135-10 (+$3,585)
If you don’t quite understand the line, total or anything else, go to my Sports Betting FAQ.

Vegas betting action updated Nov. 28, 11:30 a.m. ET. Follow @walterfootball for updates.

Go to Week 12 NFL Picks – Late Games

Chicago Bears (3-7) at Detroit Lions (0-9-1)
Line: Bears by 2. Total: 41.5.
Thursday, Nov. 25, 12:30 PM

The Matchup. Edge: Bears.

Week 11 Analysis: Our November Pick of the Month hit, but some other plays lost due to frustrating circumstances. I’ll break down all the multi-unit picks once again:

Falcons, 3 units (loss): There were some bogus scores at the end, so the 25-0 final score was misleading. The Falcons scored no points in two trips to the red zone, which killed their chances of covering. Had they turned those two red zone trips into 10 points, they may have beaten the spread.

Browns, 3 units (loss): How did the Browns not cover this spread? I didn’t know until I re-watched the game and noticed that the officials called numerous shady holding penalties on long Nick Chubb runs when the score was 13-0. When the lead was trimmed down to 13-10, the calls disappeared. If it’s eventually revealed in several years that someone on Clay Martin’s crew fixed this game, I’ll be the least-surprised person on the planet.

Jaguars, 4 units (loss): I loved the value with the Jaguars, but I ignored their deficiencies in covering the middle of the field versus a team that attacks that area frequently. This was a horrible pick.

Redskins, 8 units (win): That was quite the overreaction to Cam Newton, eh?

Ravens, 3 units (loss): Ugh! Lamar Jackson wasn’t even on the injury report Friday, but he missed this game. The Ravens beat the Bears by three without Jackson, so surely they could’ve won by at least four with Jackson. This was a rough loss.

Eagles, 3 units (win): Never in doubt, but I’m kicking myself for not locking in this pick at -2.5. I would have added another unit at that line.

We were also unlucky to lose two units with the Jets +4. This was an even game, yardage-wise, but the Jets had drives end at the 5-, 22- and 36-yard lines with no points. Hopefully we have better luck on Thanksgiving and the ensuing weekend!

A couple of things: First, I’m going to remind you every week that my wife is due around Christmas, so there will be a week in December when my picks and/or recaps could be released late. Second, I just published a book called How the 2020 MVP Was Stolen:

This book is not completely about football; it’s more political than anything, so some of you will hate it. In fact, it wouldn’t surprise me if Amazon bans it at some point, so get it while you can. Nevertheless, if you want to support the site, please consider ordering a copy!

CHICAGO OFFENSE: It’s currently unclear who will start at quarterback for the Bears, though it’s sounding like it’s going to be Andy Dalton. Justin Fields hurt his ankle on a third-down scramble Sunday, so it might be difficult for him to take the field on such short rest. If he can’t go, Dalton proved that he’s more than capable of being a viable replacement.

Neither Fields nor Dalton will have a difficult matchup at all, especially if Trey Flowers is sidelined again. The Lions can’t generate much pressure without Flowers, so either Chicago quarterback will have plenty of time in the pocket to locate the emerging Darnell Mooney or one of the tight ends.

The Bears will be able to pick up big chunks of yardage on the ground. David Montgomery didn’t run the ball very much last week, but he’ll be able to trample the hapless Lions ground defense. Nick Chubb gained 130 yards last week, and that’s even with all the bogus holding penalties negating many of his long gains.

DETROIT OFFENSE: The Lions also have a quarterback question mark. Jared Goff is dealing with an oblique injury, which could keep him out of action for the second week in a row. If so, Tim Boyle will make start No. 2.

It’s a miracle that Boyle covered the spread last week, though “miracle” could be defined as corrupt officiating. Boyle had no business being in a close game, as Detroit’s 10 points came on a fluky long run and a Baker Mayfield interception. Boyle is extremely fortunate he threw just two picks when he easily could’ve tossed five. Perhaps Chicago will convert those potential give-aways.

The only hope the Lions have of moving the chains is via D’Andre Swift and T.J. Hockenson. The Bears have some defensive liabilities, but I wouldn’t expect Detroit to have much offensive success.

RECAP: I liked the Bears much more on the advance spread of -3. This line has risen to -3.5, which is far less appealing because Chicago winning by three is one of the most likely results of this game.

Despite losing value, I’m still going to be on Chicago, assuming Boyle makes the start. I can’t see Boyle having a high success rate of covering the spread, even against sub-par teams like Chicago. We’ll see what happens with the injury report, but I may end up betting a low amount on the Bears.

Our Week 11 NFL Picks will be posted all day Tuesday. Follow @walterfootball for updates.

FINAL THOUGHTS: I am so torn on this game. If it weren’t for the Matt Nagy news, I’d be all over the Bears as a fade of an injured Jared Goff and a Detroit roster down multiple players at numerous positions. However, we’ve seen teams quit on lame-duck coaches many times throughout the years. Perhaps it’ll be different this time because this is a Thanksgiving affair, but the Bears think Nagy could be fired after this game, so I can’t say for sure if they’ll be trying hard. However, George McCaskey told the players and coaches Nagy wouldn’t be fired. Whether they believe it or not is another story. The Bears have never fired a head coach during the middle of the season, so perhaps it’s the truth. After saying on the podcast I would go with the Lions, I’ve decided to stick with Chicago. As you can tell, I’m not confident about this! The sharps are on the Lions, and the best spread is -2 -108 at Bookmaker.

The Motivation. Edge: Lions.

The Bears could quit on Matt Nagy.

The Spread. Edge: Bears.

WalterFootball.com Calculated Spread: Bears -5.
Westgate Advance Point Spread: Bears -3.
Computer Model: Bears -5.
DVOA Spread: .

The Vegas. Edge: None.
Equal action.

Percentage of money on Detroit: 58% (105,000 bets)

The Trends. Edge: Bears. History: Bears have won 6 of the last 7 meetings.

Opening Line: Bears -3.5.

Opening Total: 42.

Weather: Dome.

Week 12 NFL Pick: Bears 20, Lions 17
Bears -2 (0 Units) — Push; $0
Under 41.5 (0 Units) — Correct; $0
Bears 16, Lions 14

Las Vegas Raiders (5-5) at Dallas Cowboys (7-3)
Line: Cowboys by 7.5. Total: 50.5.
Thursday, Nov. 25, 4:30 PM

The Matchup. Edge: None.

My overrated-underrated feature was posted in this spot the past couple of years. I thought it would be better if there was less clutter on this page, so I set up a new NFL Overrated and Underrated Teams page that will be updated every Monday. I have overrated and underrated teams listed there, and some may shock you!

DALLAS OFFENSE: It’s difficult to handicap this game at the moment because it’s unclear who will be able to play for Dallas. Amari Cooper will be sidelined with a cold, but CeeDee Lamb and Tyron Smith are both major question marks whose statuses are up in the air.

If all three players are out, it’s going to be tough for Dallas to consistently move the chains. We saw it last week against Kansas City – Dak Prescott, who was not getting adequate protection, had to throw to Michael Gallup, Dalton Schultz and some lesser receivers. The result was nine points and six dropped passes. The Raiders have a couple of talented cornerbacks who can deal with these “threats.” Conversely, if both Lamb and Smith return, the Cowboys should have success moving the chains consistently, given the Raiders’ mediocre pressure rate (19th in the NFL).

The Raiders are worse to the run than the pass, so Dallas should be able to pick up big chunks of yardage via Ezekiel Elliott and Tony Pollard. We just saw Joe Mixon go nuts versus the Raiders, so Elliott and Pollard could combine for a similar performance.

LAS VEGAS OFFENSE: The Raiders’ scoring unit has looked dreadful ever since Henry Ruggs’ departure. Ruggs wasn’t even overly productive, but his deep threat prevented teams from focusing on Darren Waller and Hunter Renfrow. With Ruggs gone, teams can lock into those players and put more pressure on Derek Carr, who may be on the verge of getting benched.

Luckily for Carr, the Cowboys are just 22nd in pressure rate, so he should have more time in the pocket than he did last week versus Cincinnati’s superior pass rush. Dallas also struggles mightily against tight ends, so Carr should have success targeting Waller.

The Cowboys are at their worst on this side of the ball trying to defend the run. This obviously bodes well for Josh Jacobs, who has disappointed lately. Jacobs, however, could have a resurgence of sorts on Thanksgiving in this matchup.

RECAP: The Cowboys are 1-9 against the spread on Thanksgiving during the previous decade, and I believe there’s a decent chance they’ll be 1-10 ATS following this Thanksgiving. I wouldn’t think that if they had their entire roster intact, but they’ll likely be missing Cooper and potentially Lamb and Smith. Even if Smith returns, he may not be 100 percent.

A team missing its top two receivers should not be favored by a touchdown, and the sharps agree; they bet the Raiders when this line was at +7.5. The Cowboys will just be too limited to reliably cover a high spread. The Raiders, who played a lost closer to the Bengals than last week’s 32-13 result says they did, should be able to keep this game close.

That said, I’m not wild about the Raiders because first-year coaches tend to do poorly in Thursday games because of their inexperience. If Jon Gruden were still the coach, I’d bet the Raiders heavily. In this case, it’ll be a small bet on Vegas or nothing.

THURSDAY THOUGHTS: Whether or not I bet this game will come down to CeeDee Lamb’s availability. The Raiders will seem like the right side if the Cowboys are down their top two receivers. If Lamb plays, I will not be betting the Raiders at all.

FINAL THOUGHTS: CeeDee Lamb is sidelined in addition to Amari Cooper, so I’m going to bet two units on the Raiders. This spread is too high for a team missing its top two receivers, as a diminished offense will allow the Raiders to hang around and cover. The sharps agree. The best line is +7.5 -115 at BetUS.

The Motivation. Edge: None.
No edge found.

The Spread. Edge: None.

WalterFootball.com Calculated Spread: Cowboys -6.5.
Westgate Advance Point Spread: Cowboys -7.
Computer Model: Cowboys -9.
DVOA Spread: .

The Vegas. Edge: Raiders.

Decent action on the Cowboys.

Percentage of money on Dallas: 67% (104,000 bets)

The Trends. Edge: Raiders.

The underdog is 106-73 ATS in Cowboys games since 2010.

Cowboys are 9-10 ATS as a Thanksgiving host since 2001.

Opening Line: Cowboys -7.

Opening Total: 50.5.

Weather: Dome.

Week 12 NFL Pick: Cowboys 26, Raiders 20
Raiders +7.5 -115 (2 Units) – BetUS — Correct; +$200
Under 50.5 (0 Units) — Incorrect; $0
Raiders 36, Cowboys 33

Buffalo Bills (6-4) at New Orleans Saints (5-5)
Line: Bills by 7. Total: 45.
Thursday, Nov. 25, 8:20 PM

The Matchup. Edge: None.

VEGAS UPDATE: I’ll be posting how the Vegas sportsbooks have done the previous week in this spot. The highest-bet sides were 34-42 in 2020 and 30-24 so far this year. As you can tell, the sportsbooks have taken a beating.

Here are the teams getting the most bets last week:

Seahawks -3

Packers -2.5

Patriots -6.5

49ers -6.5

Dolphins -4

Titans -10

Bengals -1

The highest-bet teams were 4-3 this past week. It was a winning week for the sportsbooks when considering that the Seahawks had so many FOMO bets prior to kickoff and that teasers lost when the Titans and Bills lost outright.

Here are the teams getting the most bets this week:

Eagles -3.5

Patriots -6.5

Redskins -1

Panthers -2.5

Bills -4

Falcons -1

Once again, mostly road favorites. I’d chide the public for not learning their lesson, but they’ve won with these all year (prior to Week 9, that is).

BUFFALO OFFENSE: The Bills were dreadful Sunday, suffering a blowout loss to the Colts in which they were outgained by nearly 100 yards. Josh Allen looked like the hapless quarterback from his rookie campaign. He killed his team with turnovers, while his receivers didn’t do him any favors by dropping some passes.

I’ve written about this in my NFL Power Rankings, where I didn’t move the Bills at all: I believe Buffalo was caught looking ahead to this game. Playing on Thanksgiving is special for players, and this is the first time the Allen-led Bills will be able to do so in the night game. Thus, I’d expect a much better performance from Allen and his receivers, especially against the Saints’ secondary. New Orleans is terrific at locking up No. 1 wideouts because of Marshon Lattimore, but the unit surrenders big plays to everyone else. Given how many weapons Allen has at his disposal, this will be a big problem.

Even worse, we just saw the Saints struggle to contain Jalen Hurts. Like Hurts, Allen will be able to scramble around and beat the Saints with his legs.

NEW ORLEANS OFFENSE: The Saints have one of the worst offenses in the NFL at the moment. That’ll change once Alvin Kamara, Terron Armstead and Ryan Ramczyk will return from injury. They were all out against the Eagles, and the result was just seven points before garbage time. And those seven points, by the way, came off a Miles Sanders lost fumble at the Philadelphia 6-yard line.

It doesn’t sound like Kamara and Ramczyk will play, but Armstead has a chance because he was limited in Monday’s simulated practice. Armstead’s presence would be huge versus a Buffalo defense that applies tons of pressure on the quarterback.

Regardless, the Bills have excellent talent all over their defense, and they don’t have to worry about much if Kamara is sidelined again. Buffalo’s terrific secondary will clamp down on the mediocre receivers, while Mark Ingram will have minimal gains coming out of the backfield.

RECAP: I love betting good teams coming off an embarrassing loss. The Bills qualify as such. They had such a low-effort letdown last week, so it’s no surprise that were obliterated. However, they have the talent to rebound in this game, especially if the Saints are missing Kamara and multiple offensive linemen again.

My unit count will be determined by who is playing, but I’ll be on the Bills regardless. One other factor is that Buffalo is arguably getting line value here. The advance spread is -4.5, but this line would’ve skyrocketed had the Bills prevailed over the Colts because of New Orleans’ ugly loss to Philadelphia. Had the Bills tried hard versus Indianapolis, I believe this spread would’ve shot up to -6 or -6.5, but it has remained at this level because of a misleading defeat.

THURSDAY THOUGHTS: This line has risen to -7, which makes the Bills less appealing. I also don’t like that Spencer Brown will be sidelined again. The Bills will be missing two starting offensive linemen, but this won’t matter as much as it would versus normal opponents because New Orleans is 30th in pressure rate. Besides, the Saints coud be missing two or three blockers depending on whether Terron Armstead plays. If Armstead is out in addition to Ryan Ramczyk and Andrus Peat against the Bills’ No. 1 pressure defense, I will be heavy on Buffalo. If Armstead plays, I’ll still bet the Bills, but I’ll be less enthusiastic about the game.

FINAL THOUGHTS: Terron Armstead is active, so I’m not going to bet too heavily on the Bills. I still would like them a lot at the opening line, but this spread has swelled to -7. I’m actually going to buy down to -6 -125 at Bookmaker because six is such a key number these days. The sharps bet the Bills at the lower numbers, but not up here.

The Motivation. Edge: Bills.

The Bills are coming off an embarrassing loss.

The Spread. Edge: None.

WalterFootball.com Calculated Spread: Bills -4.5.
Westgate Advance Point Spread: Bills -4.5.
Computer Model: Bills -5.
DVOA Spread: .

The Vegas. Edge: Saints.

Everyone is on the Bills.

Percentage of money on Buffalo: 77% (13,000 bets)

The Trends. Edge: None.

Opening Line: Bills -4.

Opening Total: 46.5.

Weather: Dome.

Week 12 NFL Pick: Bills 34, Saints 17
Bills -6 -125 (2 Units) – Bookmaker — Correct; +$200
Over 45 (0 Units) — Incorrect; $0
Bills 31, Saints 6

Tennessee Titans (8-3) at New England Patriots (7-4)
Line: Patriots by 7.5. Total: 43.
Sunday, Nov. 28, 1:00 PM

The Matchup. Edge: Patriots.

HATE MAIL: I will be posting hate mail here. We got just a bit this week:

Just heard from the infamous Frank Sebastiano, one of our better hate mailers:

How devastated is Frank that my sister and her entire family survived the virus without any sort of scare? He was really hoping one of them would pass away so that he could laugh at me for taking the virus lightly.

But here’s the thing: I haven’t been taking it lightly! I’ve suggested hazmat suit mandates, but this guy refuses to wear one:

What a monster. Imagine being so selfish that you won’t wear a hazmat suit during a freaking pandemic. This guy must want to kill as many grandmas as Andrew Cuomo, Phil Murphy and Tom Wolf.

Let’s get to another renowned hate-mailer:

Imagine if flipping a coin won you $31,000 one year and lost you $4,000 anther year. I’d be happy to flip that coin!

TENNESSEE OFFENSE: What if I were to tell you that the Titans performed much better offensively than the Texans in their 22-13 loss if you exclude five plays? Some may not believe me, but it’s true. The Titans outgained the Texans, 420-190, but killed themselves with five turnovers. Had Ryan Tannehill not pressed and settled for field goals, Tennessee likely would have prevailed.

I don’t expect the Titans to commit five turnovers again, but the problem is that Tannehill probably won’t have any of his primary weapons in this game. We know he’ll be missing Derrick Henry and Julio Jones, but A.J. Brown might be out as well after getting hurt versus Houston. This will leave Tannehill with Nick Westbrook, Marcus Johnson and Dez Fitzpatrick against Bill Belichick’s defense, which seems terrible.

I guess the silver lining is that Belichick, who specializes in shutting down one aspect of an opposing offense, won’t even know what to target. That would obviously change with Brown active, but Brown’s presence would at least distract the defensive mastermind.

NEW ENGLAND OFFENSE: Mac Jones has been excellent in three of the five games since losing to the Cowboys in overtime. Jones thrived against the Falcons, Browns and Jets. What do those teams have in common? They’re all in the bottom 12 of pressure rate in the NFL. Conversely, Jones struggled versus the Panthers and Chargers, and he needed his defense to save him. Both the Panthers and Chargers are in the top 12 of pressure rate.

I’m not breaking any news here by saying young quarterbacks struggle when rattled in the backfield. The Titans will be able to do this, as they rank 11th in pressure rate. Jones has a great offensive line in front of him, but that was the case in his battles against the Panthers and Chargers, and yet he still performed way worse than he did in the other three games.

Making matters worse for Jones, the Titans are stout against the run, ranking eighth in YPC, so he won’t be able to lean on Damien Harris or Rhamondre Stevenson. Meanwhile, the weakness of Tennessee’s defense is allowing big plays to receivers, but it’s not like the New England wideouts have great play-making ability.

RECAP: This spread movement has reached insane levels. I thought the -3 advance line was inflated, and yet now the number is -6.5! The public is betting the Patriots like this is free money despite getting absolutely horrible line value.

I love the Titans. This overreaction is absurd. In their past four games, the Patriots beat the Falcons, who are terrible; the Browns, who just nearly lost to the Lions; the Panthers, even though Carolina outgained them and averaged more yards per play; and the Chargers, who averaged 1.7 more yards per play but only lost because of Justin Herbert interceptions. Tell me: Why are we supposed to be so impressed by this that we see a 3.5-point line movement through three key numbers?

The Patriots are not 6.5 points better than the Titans in Foxboro, even without Henry, Julio Jones and Brown. No way. I believe Tennessee’s defense will keep this game close and perhaps force Jones into turnovers with their great pressure, while the offense will find a way to move the chains enough to keep this game close. Mike Vrabel has an excellent track record as a substantial underdog, so I believe he’ll come through in that regard once again.

THURSDAY THOUGHTS: Not a good start for A.J. Brown, who was DNP on Wednesday. I still like the Titans regardless of his status, but I’d obviously prefer it if he’d play.

SATURDAY NOTES: It’s a bummer that A.J. Brown will be sidelined, as Tennessee won’t have any offensive threats. I still like the Titans to keep this game close with their heavy pressure rattling Mac Jones. This will be a four-unit pick instead of a five-unit selection with Brown out.

FOR-FUN PARLAY ADDED: I don’t see a logical teaser at this moment, so we’re back with our extremely popular for-fun parlay where I use my top selections at more favorable lines. This is a six-team parlay with the Titans +7.5, Giants +4.5, Buccaneers -2.5, Panthers moneyline, Rams moneyline and Seahawks +3.

FINAL THOUGHTS: Money continues to pour in on the Patriots, and it appears to be sharp action. This spread has now eclipsed a touchdown, which seems insane to me. I love the value with the Titans, but this could easily be a game that’ll make me look foolish by 2 p.m. Nevertheless, I’m sticking with Tennessee. The best line is +7.5 -110 at both BetUS and FanDuel.

The Motivation. Edge: Titans.

The Titans are coming off an embarrassing loss.

The Spread. Edge: Titans.

WalterFootball.com Calculated Spread: Patriots -4.
Westgate Advance Point Spread: Patriots -3.
Computer Model: Patriots -8.
DVOA Spread: .

The Vegas. Edge: Titans.
What happened to all the Patriots money?

Percentage of money on New England: 57% (67,000 bets)

The Trends. Edge: Titans.

Mike Vrabel is 19-11 ATS as an underdog.

Opening Line: Patriots -6.

Opening Total: 44.5.

Weather: Cloudy, 39 degrees. Light wind.

Week 12 NFL Pick: Patriots 23, Titans 20
Titans +7.5 (4 Units) – BetUS/FanDuel — Incorrect; -$440
Parlay: Titans +7.5, Giants +4.5, Buccaneers -2.5, Panthers ML, Rams ML, Seahawks +3 (0.5 Units to win 13.3) – Bookmaker — Incorrect; -$50
Under 43.5 (0 Units) — Incorrect; $0
Patriots 36, Titans 13

New York Jets (2-8) at Houston Texans (2-8)
Line: Texans by 2.5. Total: 44.5.
Sunday, Nov. 28, 1:00 PM

The Matchup. Edge: Texans.

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HOUSTON OFFENSE: Tyrod Taylor had a great highlight where he catapulted into the end zone in a stunning upset victory against the Titans last week. The Texans scored 22 points, but that result was highly misleading. The Texans were able to benefit from five Tennessee turnovers to give them a bunch of free points. They mustered just 190 net yards of offense compared to 420 by the Titans!

The Texans have an easier matchup this week, as the Jets’ defense generates far less quarterback pressure than the Titans. This will be key for Houston because of its putrid offensive line that is currently missing three starters. Still, it’s difficult to envision the Texans having much offensive production with all of these injuries to the blockers.

The Jets are at their weakest against the run, but the Texans won’t be able to take advantage of that. They just cut Phillip Lindsay, who is far more talented than their current lead back, Rex Burkhead. Bill O’Brien may disagree with this after trying to acquire him in exchange for Deshaun Watson, but Burkhead is a miserable plodder who won’t threaten the Jets’ defense. Tyrod Taylor, on the other hand, will pick up some first downs with his legs and hit Brandin Cooks for some deep passes.

NEW YORK OFFENSE: Speaking of deep passes, it was weird to see the Jets attack the opposing defense with downfield shots last week. That was the difference between Joe Flacco and Mike White, as Flacco targeted the receivers instead of the running backs. The result was a solid offensive performance in which the Jets accumulated 380 net yards of offense. They were limited to 17 points, however, because of scoreless drives ending at the Miami 5-, 22- and 36-yard lines.

Flacco, assuming he starts again, will have an easier matchup. The Texans have a horrible defense that can’t stop the run or the pass. Their secondary gives up tons of big plays, which bodes well for Elijah Moore. The rookie receiver is quickly becoming the Jets’ No. 1 wideout, and he has a great matchup this week.

Then again, Moore may not do well if Zach Wilson starts instead. There’s a chance Wilson replaces Flacco, which would make things more difficult for the Jets. While Houston doesn’t have much defensive talent, it has Lovie Smith standing on the sidelines. Smith is a smart coordinator who will be able to confuse the young quarterback into turnovers, just as he did with Trevor Lawrence in the season opener.

RECAP: Imagine needing the Texans to win by four or more points to cash a winning ticket. That seems like a terrible wager. I’m not saying the Jets are the right side in this game, but I couldn’t envision myself betting Houston.

The Texans beat the Titans by nine, but as mentioned, they were outgained by 230 net yards. They simply prevailed because of five Tennessee turnovers. The Texans committed no give-aways of their own, which is unlikely to occur again because of how poor their offensive line is.

I’m going to be on the Jets as a simple fade of Houston as a field goal favorite. Whether or not I bet New York depends on whether Flacco or Wilson starts. I want Flacco to get the nod. If it’s Wilson, this will be a non-wager because he could self destruct trying to dissect Lovie Smith’s schemes.

THURSDAY THOUGHTS: I don’t understand this. Joe Flacco was ruled out, and Zach Wilson will start in his place – and yet the line moved down!? Flacco is better than Wilson at the moment, as Wilson doesn’t match up well versus Lovie Smith. I’m switching to Houston in the wake of this news.

SATURDAY NOTES: Nothing has swayed me to bet this game. I’m still leaning toward Houston because of Zach Wilson being matched up against Lovie Smith, but I don’t want to lay points with the Texans either.

FINAL THOUGHTS: This line has moved to -3 in most places due to sharp and public money. Everyone is betting the Texans as a fade of Zach Wilson, which is no surprise. I still have no strong opinion concerning this game. It’s worth noting that Justin Reid is a healthy scratch, but he hasn’t played well this year. If you like Houston, you can still get -2.5 -115 at FanDuel.

The Motivation. Edge: Jets.

The Texans are a terrible team coming off a win.

The Spread. Edge: Jets.

WalterFootball.com Calculated Spread: Texans -1.5.
Westgate Advance Point Spread: Texans -2.5.
Computer Model: Texans -4.
DVOA Spread: .

The Vegas. Edge: Jets.

The Jets were a public dog before the Zach Wilson announcement.

Percentage of money on Houston: 69% (45,000 bets)

The Trends. Edge: None.

Opening Line: Texans -3.

Opening Total: 44.

Weather: Dome.

Week 12 NFL Pick: Texans 17, Jets 13
Texans -2.5 (0 Units) — Incorrect; $0
Under 44.5 (0 Units) — Correct; $0
Jets 21, Texans 14

Philadelphia Eagles (5-6) at New York Giants (3-7)
Line: Eagles by 4. Total: 45.5.
Sunday, Nov. 28, 1:00 PM

The Matchup. Edge: None.

If you missed it, I have an NFL Betting Props page. I’ll be adding to it as the season progresses!

Also, Confidence Pool Picks will return. They’ll be posted by Wednesday morning each week!

PHILADELPHIA OFFENSE: After failing to run the ball at all to start the season, the Eagles have really dedicated to establishing their ground attack. In fact, they now run the ball more than any other team in the NFL.

This does not bode well against the Giants. New York used to have a solid run-stopping unit, but that all changed once it lost Blake Martinez to an injury. Martinez was the glue who held the front seven together, so it’s no wonder that his absence has had a profound impact on the entire defense.

The Giants still have a quality secondary, which includes James Bradberry. He’ll be able to limit DeVonta Smith a bit, forcing Jalen Hurts to look elsewhere. Hurts doesn’t have any other viable wide receivers, but he’ll connect often to Dallas Goedert. He’ll also make good use of his legs once again.

NEW YORK OFFENSE: Daniel Jones looked terrible Monday night, which was hardly a surprise. Jones is terrible against the blitz, and the Buccaneers blitz at the highest rate in the NFL. The result was two ghastly interceptions and just 10 total points, seven of which came on a short field following a Mike Evans drop-turned-interception.

The Eagles, conversely, blitz at one of the lowest rates in the NFL. This will allow Jones to perform much better than he did versus Tampa Bay. Remember, Jones has plenty of weapons at his disposal, and some of the injured players will be healthier this week. Saquon Barkley and Kenny Golladay didn’t quite appear to be 100 percent Monday night, but they’ll be better in Week 12. Meanwhile, Sterling Shepard may return from injury.

The Giants have the personnel to move the chains against the Eagles. Barkley and Evan Engram will be able to attack Philadelphia’s linebacking corps, which is still the primary weakness of the team.

RECAP: This is another overreaction to the advance spread. The Eagles were just -3 at the Giants a week ago. Now, because of Philadelphia’s blowout win against the overrated and injury-ravaged Saints, and the Giants’ loss to a focused Buccaneers team on Monday night, this line is -3.5, moving off the huge key number of three.

I’m going to take the line value with the Giants. New York hasn’t been competitive against the elite teams in the NFL, getting blown out by the Buccaneers, Rams and Cowboys, but they’ve kept games close otherwise. The Giants beat the Raiders, Panthers and Saints, and they lost by four combined points to the Redskins and Chiefs. The Eagles are in this pantheon rather than the Buccaneers/Rams/Cowboys club, so I don’t see why they would necessarily win by four or more.

Given that Jones matches up so much better against this defense than he did versus Tampa, this could end up being a medium or high wager unless we see some surprises on the injury report.

THURSDAY THOUGHTS: Jason Garrett was fired, which can only be a positive for the Giants. Freddie Kitchens, who was a great offensive coordinator with the Browns, undoubtedly has some new ideas to improve the Giants. I like New York even more now.

SATURDAY NOTES: Kadarius Toney and Sterling Shepard are out, but the Giants still have Kenny Golladay, Saquon Barkley and Evan Engram for Daniel Jones, who has a great matchup against the Eagles’ non-blitzing defense. I still plan on betting three or four units on the Giants. You can currently get +4 at DraftKings.

FINAL THOUGHTS: Here’s another game where the public and sharps are on the same side. Everyone is betting the Eagles. Again, I don’t understand this. I’m loving the greater value with the Giants at +4.5, which is available at Bookmaker.

The Motivation. Edge: None.
No edge found.

The Spread. Edge: Giants.

WalterFootball.com Calculated Spread: Eagles -1.
Westgate Advance Point Spread: Eagles -3.
Computer Model: Eagles -2.
DVOA Spread: .

The Vegas. Edge: Giants.

All aboard the Eagles’ hype train!

Percentage of money on Philadelphia: 73% (62,000 bets)

The Trends. Edge: Eagles.

History: Eagles have won 22 the last 26 meetings.

Opening Line: Eagles -3.5.

Opening Total: 46.5.

Weather: Cloudy, 45 degrees. Light wind.

Week 12 NFL Pick: Eagles 28, Giants 27
Giants +4.5 -111 (4 Units) – Bookmaker — Correct; +$400
Over 45.5 (0 Units) — Incorrect; $0
Giants 13, Eagles 7

Tampa Bay Buccaneers (7-3) at Indianapolis Colts (6-5)
Line: Buccaneers by 3. Total: 53.
Sunday, Nov. 28, 1:00 PM

The Matchup. Edge: Buccaneers.

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INDIANAPOLIS OFFENSE: The media is building up Jonathan Taylor to be the new lead MVP candidate because lazy sports analysts have no one else to promote. Taylor has been awesome, of course, as he trampled the Bills last week for five touchdowns. I am in no way doubting how terrific he has been.

That said, I didn’t list Taylor in my top five MVP candidates just yet because the Colts are only 6-5. Also, his performance against the Bills was misleading because Buffalo put forth zero effort in that game with a Thanksgiving contest on the horizon. There’s no reason for the Buccaneers to be flat, so they’ll clamp down on Taylor. Tampa Bay has an elite run defense that has limited many great backs this year, including Ezekiel Elliott (11-33), Alvin Kamara (19-61) and Saquon Barkley (6-25).

Carson Wentz will have to do more than attempt 20 passes this week, which could get him into trouble. The Buccaneers bring tons of pressure, which could force Wentz into his patented left-handed throws, underhanded heaves and darts into triple coverage that are just begging to be intercepted.

TAMPA BAY OFFENSE: The Colts are also strong versus the run, so I wouldn’t expect much from Leonard Fournette either. Unlike the Colts, however, the Buccaneers don’t need their ground game to succeed in order to do well on this side of the ball.

That’s obviously because Tom Brady is the quarterback. Brady has a terrific matchup in this game for multiple reasons. He won’t have any sort of pass rush in his face. The Colts apply less pressure on the quarterback than any other team in the NFL. With all day to throw, Brady will dissect Indianapolis’ secondary with ease.

And speaking of that secondary, it’s a weak spot right now. The Colts are down their top two safeties, and they don’t have much depth at cornerback. This is a major problem because they need to cover all of Brady’s weapons.

RECAP: The Colts, who have suddenly become everyone’s darling because they beat the low-effort Bills in a blowout, are underdogs of fewer points than they were on the advance line. This projected number was +3.5, and now it’s +2.5. That’s just a one-point move, but it has shifted across the key line of three, which is significant.

Factoring that into account, as well as Tampa’s projected great matchup against our new MVP candidate and injury-ravaged secondary, it seems as though the Buccaneers are a great play. The Colts often find a way to lose these big games if Wentz has to take matters into his own hands, which he will almost certainly have to do. I plan on betting multiple units on the Buccaneers.

THURSDAY THOUGHTS: Sharp money on the Buccaneers moved this line up to -3, which is still a bit of a bargain. Perhaps these bets were made because Quenton Nelson missed practice Wednesday.

SATURDAY NOTES: I’m bumping this up to four units. The more I think about it, the more I love the Buccaneers. They match up so well against the Colts on both sides of the ball, and yet this spread is lower than what the advance line was because of the Colts’ misleading win over the Bills. How quickly people forget that the Jaguars outgained the Colts the week before, with Indianapolis only winning because of a blocked punt! I’m locking this in now because Bovada, DraftKings and FanDuel have moved this line to -3.5. The best remaining line is -3 -123 at Bookmaker.

FINAL THOUGHTS: Ugh. I bought at the top. I really thought this line would be moving to -3.5 based on how much action the Buccaneers were getting, but the vig has fallen. In fact, you can get -2.5 -119 at Bookmaker. I believe this line movement is because of Vita Vea and Devin White possibly being ruled out, but they will play. There was sharp action on both sides of this game.

The Motivation. Edge: None.
No edge found.

The Spread. Edge: Buccaneers.

WalterFootball.com Calculated Spread: Buccaneers -4.
Westgate Advance Point Spread: Buccaneers -3.5.
Computer Model: Buccaneers -4.
DVOA Spread: .

The Vegas. Edge: Colts.

Equal action early, but money is coming in on the Buccaneers.

Percentage of money on Tampa Bay: 65% (70,000 bets)

The Trends. Edge: Buccaneers.

Road Team is 108-77 ATS in Buccaneers games since 2009.

Tom Brady is 268-85 as a starter (199-139 ATS).

Tom Brady is 184-125 against the spread since 2003.

Tom Brady is 124-80 ATS in non-divisional games.

Opening Line: Buccaneers -2.5.

Opening Total: 51.

Weather: Dome.

Week 12 NFL Pick: Buccaneers 27, Colts 20
Buccaneers -3 -123 (4 Units) – Bookmaker — Correct; +$400
Under 53 (0 Units) — Incorrect; $0
Buccaneers 38, Colts 31

Atlanta Falcons (4-6) at Jacksonville Jaguars (2-8)
Line: Falcons by 1.5. Total: 46.
Sunday, Nov. 28, 1:00 PM

The Matchup. Edge: Falcons.

If you’ve followed this site for a while, you might remember that I like to respond to my spam mails. It all started numerous years ago, when a man named Jon Wire from the “United Bank of Africoan” promised me an ATM card of some sort, so I responded as a man named Mister Compassion Chuck Norris, who was raised by wolves. The following season, I received e-mails from Richard Held and Loon Bruce, who told me I won a Facebook Award, which comes with a “lump sum pay out of (750,000.00 GBP).” Pretending to be Matthew Millen Kim, I sent out my application and fake money.

I’ve been messing around with spammers ever since, pretending to be Harvey Weinstein, Joe Biden, Ramsay Bolton and Walter White. I have plenty of Spam Mails this year, so check them out if you want to see me screw with spammers. I’ll have new ones every week this year!

ATLANTA OFFENSE: Matt Ryan was shut out against the Patriots, thanks mostly to a truly horrific game plan by Arthur Smith. Then again, Smith couldn’t really use his top three weapons. Calvin Ridley is still MIA; Kyle Pitts was erased by Bill Belichick’s scheming; and Cordarrelle Patterson missed the game with an injury.

Things will be much different this Sunday. Ridley is still missing, but Pitts and Patterson figure to be big parts of the Atlanta offense. Jacksonville is miserable at defending the middle of the field, so both Pitts and Patterson will benefit greatly. Patterson should be back, as he was close to playing last Thursday night, so the extra time will make sure he’s on the field.

The Jaguars pressure the quarterback at a high rate, which is their only chance of slowing down the Falcons’ offense. Atlanta, of course, struggles to pass protect. However, Ryan could do what Jimmy Garoppolo did this past Sunday and get the ball out of his hands quickly to his talented tight end and receiver-turned-running back.

JACKSONVILLE OFFENSE: Unlike the Jaguars, the Falcons generate virtually no pressure on the opposing quarterback. This will be music to Trevor Lawrence’s ears, as Lawrence has endured a rocky rookie campaign behind an offensive line that is currently missing multiple starters.

Lawrence also has a nice matchup passing into Atlanta’s anemic secondary, though Lawrence doesn’t have the best weapons to take advantage of that liability. Both Marvin Jones and Laviska Shenault have struggled, while emerging threat Jamal Agnew suffered a season-ending injury.

James Robinson could have a decent performance as a receiver out of the backfield. He’ll have some fine gains as a runner, but it’s worth noting that Atlanta is pretty decent against ground attacks.

RECAP: The Falcons are coming off consecutive blowout losses, but those were to the Patriots and Cowboys. There’s a big difference between playing against those teams and taking on a terrible opponent like the Jaguars. Atlanta has done very well versus that caliber of opponent this year. Against all foes that currently have four wins or fewer, the Falcons are 3-1, beating the Giants, Dolphins and Jets, and losing to the Redskins. They also beat the Saints in an upset three weeks ago.

The Jaguars, meanwhile, have feasted on a pair of unfocused teams lately, beating the flat Bills and Colts. Atlanta will be mentally prepared for this game because it’s coming off two consecutive losses. The Falcons, as discussed, match up well against the Jaguars, who will continue to struggle defending the middle of the field.

That said, I’m not in love with the Falcons enough to bet them. I don’t see a big edge or spread value at all, so I’ll keep this to zero units.

THURSDAY THOUGHTS: Public betting has moved this line, but I still like the Falcons. Jacksonville’s top cornerback, Shaq Griffin, missed Wednesday’s practice, so that’s a situation worth monitoring.

SATURDAY NOTES: The Jaguars will be missing their top two cornerbacks in this game, as Shaq Griffin has been ruled out. This is something Matt Ryan could have exploited last year, but his outside receivers are Tajae Sharpe and Olamide Zaccheaus. Meanwhile, the Jaguars could be getting Brandon Linder back from injury, yet this spread is creeping up to +3. I may consider a pick change if this gets to +3.

FINAL THOUGHTS: So much for the line getting to +3! The sharps have jumped on the Jaguars, possibly because Brandon Linder is returning, while Deion Jones is out for Atlanta. Jones, however, has struggled this year, so he’s not a big loss. Cordarrelle Patterson will play, but he’s not enough to get me to bet Atlanta. If you like the Falcons, the best line is -1.5 -108 at Bookmaker and FanDuel.

The Motivation. Edge: None.
No edge found.

The Spread. Edge: None.

WalterFootball.com Calculated Spread: Falcons -1.
Westgate Advance Point Spread: Pick.
Computer Model: Falcons -2.
DVOA Spread: .

The Vegas. Edge: Jaguars.

Tons of action on the Falcons.

Percentage of money on Atlanta: 74% (39,000 bets)

The Trends. Edge: Falcons.

Falcons are 33-21 ATS following a loss of 6+ in the previous 53 instances.

Jaguars are 49-91 ATS against non-divisional opponents since 2008.

Jaguars are 15-44 ATS vs. NFC opponents since 2007.

Opening Line: Falcons -1.

Opening Total: 47.5.

Weather: Cloudy, 57 degrees. Light wind.

Week 12 NFL Pick: Falcons 23, Jaguars 20
Falcons -1.5 (0 Units) — Correct; $0
Under 45.5 (0 Units) — Correct; $0
Falcons 21, Jaguars 14

Carolina Panthers (5-6) at Miami Dolphins (4-7)
Line: Panthers by 1. Total: 41.
Sunday, Nov. 28, 1:00 PM

The Matchup. Edge: None.

Video of the Week: I used to be a big Simpsons fan, though I haven’t watched the show in at least a decade. However, I love Twin Peaks, so when you put the two together, you get Steamed Hams:

I like what one commenter posted: “This is the steam. And this is the ham. Eat full, and descend.”

CAROLINA OFFENSE: Cam Newton made his debut as a starter last week in his second stint with the Panthers. He did well, but couldn’t quite come through in the clutch during two fourth-quarter drives. Newton didn’t exactly have ideal blocking, as he was missing two starters on the offensive line.

It’s never ideal to be down two blockers, but it won’t hurt as much in this matchup because the Dolphins have one of the worst pressure rates in the NFL. They have to offset this by blitzing a great deal. As a veteran quarterback with mobility, Newton should be able to beat this attack.

The Panthers will also take advantage of another weak aspect of Miami’s defense, which is the inability to stop the run. The Jets, Ravens and Texans couldn’t exactly do this with their ineffective ground attacks during Miami’s three-game winning streak, but Christian McCaffrey will obviously exploit this liability.

MIAMI DOLPHINS: Unlike the Dolphins, the Panthers generate great pressure on opposing quarterbacks. As I mentioned in a previous pick capsule, young quarterbacks struggle with pressure, so this should bother Tua Tagovailoa, who didn’t exactly have to deal with defenders in his face against the Jets last week.

Tagovailoa, who will have to hurry his throws, will be passing into a talented secondary that should be able to smother his weapons. The Dolphins currently have one viable wide receiver at the moment, so this won’t be a difficult task for Carolina’s defensive backfield.

The Panthers’ defensive weakness is their inability to stop the run. However, this shouldn’t be nearly as much of a factor as it was last week, given that the Dolphins don’t move the chains on the ground very effectively.

RECAP: The Panthers were overhyped last week, as they were favored by more than a field goal at home versus the superior team. They’re once again getting lots of wagers, but this appears to be sharp action this time.

The Panthers match up much better against the Dolphins than they did versus the Redskins. Perhaps that’s one reason the pros are betting Carolina. Another reason could be that the Dolphins are overrated. A win over the Ravens looks nice, but Baltimore wasn’t focused for that game. The Dolphins since beat the Jets in what was an evenly matched affair; as mentioned earlier, the two teams had similar yardage, but the Jets had drives ending at the Miami 5-, 22- and 36-yard lines with no points. Had the Jets scored on those possessions, they may have won. If they did, this spread would be -3 at the very least.

I currently don’t plan on betting this game, as there are no huge edges or spread value available, but the Panthers seem like the correct side.

THURSDAY THOUGHTS: The more I think about it, the more I believe the Panthers’ terrific pass rush is going to cause problems for Miami’s horrific offensive line. I’m going to make a considerable bet on the Panthers.

SATURDAY NOTES: I’m sticking with my three-unit wager on the Panthers. This is a great matchup for Carolina, as Tua Tagovailoa is going to have issues handling their great pass rush.

FINAL THOUGHTS: Some sharp money has come in on the Dolphins on Sunday, but I still like the Panthers as a three-unit wager. The best line is -1 -108 at Bookmaker.

The Motivation. Edge: None.
No edge found.

The Spread. Edge: None.

WalterFootball.com Calculated Spread: Pick.
Westgate Advance Point Spread: Panthers -2.5.
Computer Model: Panthers -2.
DVOA Spread: .

The Vegas. Edge: Dolphins.

People are still backing Cam Newton, but this seems like more sharp money than anything.

Percentage of money on Carolina: 69% (49,000 bets)

The Trends. Edge: Panthers.

Dolphins are 23-41 ATS at home against teams with losing records since 2003.

Opening Line: Pick.

Opening Total: 42.5.

Weather: Partly cloudy, 79 degrees. Light wind.

Week 12 NFL Pick: Panthers 23, Dolphins 17
Panthers -1 -108 (3 Units) – Bookmaker — Incorrect; -$325
Under 41 (0 Units) — Incorrect; $0
Dolphins 33, Panthers 10

Pittsburgh Steelers (5-4-1) at Cincinnati Bengals (6-4)
Line: Bengals by 3.5. Total: 43.5.
Sunday, Nov. 28, 1:00 PM

The Matchup. Edge: None.

The Adventures of Tom Brady’s Haircuts are complete. They may return in the future, but I had to stop them for now.

By the way, my other book is still available as well:

In this book, I talk about the top NFL Draft busts, and what would’ve happened had each team gone a different route. Also, I discuss why Roger Goodell has banned us from the NFL Combine.

CINCINNATI OFFENSE: The Steelers’ defense struggled against Justin Herbert this past Sunday night, surrendering tons of big plays, especially on third down. This wasn’t much of a surprise because Pittsburgh was down five defensive starters, including T.J. Watt, Joe Haden and Minkah Fitzpatrick. There’s a chance all three will return this week, which would obviously be a big boon to Pittsburgh’s stop unit.

Having Watt on the field would help slow down Joe Burrow, who was able to benefit from Watt’s absence in the victory over Pittsburgh in Week 3. Watt’s presence obviously makes a huge difference, so the Bengals won’t nearly have as much offensive success with Watt on the field. However, the Steelers’ cornerbacks can be beaten, so if Watt is out or limited, Burrow will be able to connect with Ja’Marr Chase and Tee Higgins consistently.

The Steelers also tend to give up big plays to opposing running backs, as witnessed last week versus Austin Ekeler. Stephon Tuitt and Tyson Alualu are missed in this regard, so Joe Mixon figures to have another solid performance.

PITTSBURGH OFFENSE: The Steelers scored 37 points against the Chargers on Sunday night, but that result was very misleading. Pittsburgh’s offense struggled for most of the evening, but managed to score 14 points off a blocked punt and a fluky interception that was the result of Cameron Heyward tipping the ball a mile up into the air.

There’s reason to believe the Steelers’ offense will continue to disappoint. The Bengals have one of the top pass rushes in the NFL, which matches up well against the Steelers’ horrible offensive line. Cincinnati will smother Ben Roethlisberger.

The Bengals aren’t as good against the run, however, so Najee Harris could have some nice runs to ease pressure off Roethlisberger. Harris figures to take advantage of Cincinnati’s linebacking corps as well, as the Bengals don’t defend the middle of the field very well. I expect Pat Freiermuth to thrive for this reason.

RECAP: It’s tough to make a prediction on this game right now because it’s unknown which Steelers will be available. If Watt, Haden and Fitzpatrick can play, this will be a low-scoring affair that could be decided by a field goal. If most of those players are sidelined, however, Cincinnati will have a much better chance of covering this spread.

I don’t know where I’m going with this game yet, but I’m going to tail the sharps for now. They bet the Bengals up from -3.5 to -4.5. They may have some inside information on the injuries. That said, I could definitely see myself changing this pick if we get significant injury updates. Check back later, or follow me @walterfootball for updates.

THURSDAY THOUGHTS: Are the Bengals better than the Chargers? I think they’re about even, which begs the question, why is this spread less than the Chargers’ line Sunday night, which was -6? I know the Steelers were missing T.J. Watt, but the Chargers didn’t have some personnel available either. This line feels low to me.

SATURDAY NOTES: The sharps love the Steelers. I have no strong opinion on this game. After thinking about it, I’ve decided to change my pick. I feel like this will be a low-scoring grinder that will be decided by a field goal.

FINAL THOUGHTS: I’m still torn on this game, though the sharps have been all over the Steelers. The best line for Pittsburgh is +3.5 -103 at Bookmaker. If you like the Bengals, you can get -3.5 -105 at Bovada.

The Motivation. Edge: None.
No edge found.

The Spread. Edge: None.

WalterFootball.com Calculated Spread: Bengals -3.5.
Westgate Advance Point Spread: Bengals -4.
Computer Model: Bengals -1.
DVOA Spread: .

The Vegas. Edge: Steelers.

Sharp action has come in on the Bengals.

Percentage of money on Cincinnati: 66% (62,000 bets)

The Trends. Edge: Steelers.

History: Steelers have won 23 of the last 30 meetings.

Ben Roethlisberger is 54-35 ATS vs. the AFC North.

Opening Line: Bengals -4.5.

Opening Total: 45.5.

Weather: Partly cloudy, 44 degrees. Mild wind, 12 mph.

Week 12 NFL Pick: Bengals 23, Steelers 20
Steelers +3.5 (0 Units) — Incorrect; $0
Under 43.5 (0 Units) — Incorrect; $0
Bengals 41, Steelers 10

Week 12 NFL Picks – Late Games
Chargers at Broncos, Rams at Packers, Vikings at 49ers, Browns at Ravens, Seahawks at Redskins

Prop/Teaser/Parlay Picks
A list of some of my favorite team/player prop picks this week
(Offense & defensive ROY picks to be counted whenever winners are announced.) Picks carried over on a week-to-week basis will be in black.

Prop/teaser/parlay picks posted in Week 12 NFL Picks – Late Games

NFL Picks - Nov. 15

2025 NFL Mock Draft - Nov. 13

NFL Power Rankings - Nov. 12

Fantasy Football Rankings - Sept. 4

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2012 Season 4-5 Unit NFL Picks: 14-21, 40.0% (-$3,650)
2013 Season 4-5 Unit NFL Picks: 17-9-3, 65.4% (+$2,970)
2015 Season 4-5 Unit NFL Picks: 17-16-2, 51.5% (-$1,120)
2016 Season 4-5 Unit NFL Picks: 21-22-5, 48.8% (-$1,465)
2017 Season 4-5 Unit NFL Picks: 20-22-1, 47.6% (-$1,595)
2018 Season 4-5 Unit NFL Picks: 27-32-1, 45.8% (-$4,735)
2019 Season 4-5 Unit NFL Picks: 37-27-2, 57.8% (+$2,185)
2020 Season 4-5 Unit NFL Picks: 37-22-1, 62.7% (+$5,515)
2021 Season 4-5 Unit NFL Picks: 32-32-1, 50.0% (-$725)
2022 Season 4-5 Unit NFL Picks: 41-30-1, 57.8% (+$3,725)
2023 Season 4-5 Unit NFL Picks: 32-27-1, 54.2% (-$1,310)

2001 Season Over-Under: 3-2 (60.0%)
2002 Season Over-Under: 121-91-3 (57.1%)
2003 Season Over-Under: 126-132-2 (48.8%)
2004 Season Over-Under: 139-124-4 (52.9%)
2005 Season Over-Under: 117-145-4 (44.7%)
2006 Season Over-Under: 129-132-5 (49.4%)
2007 Season Over-Under: 136-145-3, 48.4% (-$1,900)
2008 Season Over-Under: 137-125-6, 52.3% (+$860)
2009 Season Over-Under: 128-135-4, 48.7% (-$3,195)
2010 Season Over-Under: 128-135-5, 48.7% (-$5)
2011 Season Over-Under: 131-131-5, 50.0% (+$135)
2012 Season Over-Under: 125-121-5, 50.8% (+$30)
2013 Season Over-Under: 132-130-5, 50.4% (-$340)
2015 Season Over-Under: 143-119-5, 54.6% ($0)
2016 Season Over-Under: 123-141-1, 46.6% (+$95)
2017 Season Over-Under: 136-139-2, 49.5% (+$640)
2018 Season Over-Under: 118-128-3, 48.0% (-$225)
2019 Season Over-Under: 126-133-4, 48.6% (-$50)
2020 Season Over-Under: 141-122-6, 53.6% ($0)
2021 Season Over-Under: 132-151-3, 46.6% ($0)
2022 Season Over-Under: 133-149-2, 47.2% (-$225)
2023 Season Over-Under: 145-135-3, 51.8% (+$200)

2007 Season Prop/ML/Teaser/Parlay Picks: +$1,035
2008 Season Prop/ML/Teaser/Parlay Picks: +$1,775
2009 Season Prop/ML/Teaser/Parlay Picks: +$865
2010 Season Prop/ML/Teaser/Parlay Picks: -$200
2011 Season Prop/ML/Teaser/Parlay Picks: +$590
2012 Season Prop/ML/Teaser/Parlay Picks: -$1,685
2013 Season Prop/ML/Teaser/Parlay Picks: +$2,245
2015 Season Prop/ML/Teaser/Parlay Picks: -$855
2016 Season Prop/ML/Teaser/Parlay Picks: -$275
2017 Season Prop/ML/Teaser/Parlay Picks: -$510
2018 Season Prop/ML/Teaser/Parlay Picks: +$1,495
2019 Season Prop/ML/Teaser/Parlay Picks: -$1,715
2020 Season Prop/ML/Teaser/Parlay Picks: +$4,975
2021 Season Prop/ML/Teaser/Parlay Picks: +$3,455
2022 Season Prop/ML/Teaser/Parlay Picks: +$5,720
2023 Season Prop/ML/Teaser/Parlay Picks: -$2,565

2006 NFL Picks of the Month: 3-3 (50%)
2007 NFL Picks of the Month: 3-3, 50.0% (-$400)
2008 NFL Picks of the Month: 6-1, 85.7% (+$3,720)
2009 NFL Picks of the Month: 3-2, 60.0% (+$640)
2010 NFL Picks of the Month: 2-4, 33.3% (-$1,810)
2011 NFL Picks of the Month: 5-2, 71.4% (+$1,870)
2012 NFL Picks of the Month: 3-2, 60.0% (+$560)
2013 NFL Picks of the Month: 6-0, 100% (+$3,900)
2014 NFL Picks of the Month: 2-4, 33.3% (-$1,350)
2015 NFL Picks of the Month: 3-3, 50.0% (-$100)
2016 NFL Picks of the Month: 5-1, 83.3% (+$2,780)
2017 NFL Picks of the Month: 4-2, 66.7% (+$1,040)
2018 NFL Picks of the Month: 4-3, 57.1% (-$640)
2019 NFL Picks of the Month: 3-3-1, 50.0% (-$625)
2020 NFL Picks of the Month: 3-2, 60.0% (+$665)
2021 NFL Picks of the Month: 2-3, 40.0% (-$920)
2022 NFL Picks of the Month: 3-4, 42.9% (-$1,615)
2023 NFL Picks of the Month: 2-5, 28.6% (-$2,550)

Career NFL Picks Against The Spread: 3,499-3,231-202, 52.0% (+$17,105)
Career 2-3 Unit NFL Picks: 1,126-1,010-57 (52.7%)
Career 4-5 Unit NFL Picks: 568-502-25 (53.1%)
Career Over-Under: 2,935-2,908-76 (50.2%)
Career Second-Half NFL Picks: 23-16-1 (59.0%)
Career NFL Picks of the Month: 47-36-1 (56.6%)

My Team-by-Team ATS Record
This section shows how well I do when picking each team this year. The purpose is to see how well I read each team. Pushes are not displayed. Winning/losing streak in parentheses.

Cowboys: 5-3	Bears: 4-5	Bucs: 6-4	49ers: 6-3
Eagles: 4-5	Lions: 8-1	Falcons: 5-5	Cardinals: 8-2
Giants: 3-6	Packers: 5-3	Panthers: 4-6	Rams: 4-5
Redskins: 4-5	Vikings: 3-6	Saints: 5-5	Seahawks: 6-2

Bills: 3-7	Bengals: 2-8	Colts: 5-5	Broncos: 6-4
Dolphins: 3-6	Browns: 3-6	Jaguars: 2-7	Chargers: 5-3
Jets: 5-5	Ravens: 4-5	Texans: 4-6	Chiefs: 3-5
Patriots: 5-3	Steelers: 3-6	Titans: 5-3	Raiders: 4-5

Divisional: 18-22 (2011-23: 608-561)	2x Game Edge: 14-13 (2011-23: 401-387)	2x Motivation Edge: 30-24 (2011-23: 510-441)	2x Spread Edge: 18-27 (2011-23: 239-211)
2x Vegas Edge: 30-41 (2011-23: 448-446)	2x Trend Edge: 12-7 (2011-23: 321-293)	Double Edge: 11-16 (2011-23: 207-185)	Triple Edge: 4-7 (2011-23: 33-37)