NFL Picks Against the Spread: Week 12, 2021

Los Angeles Chargers (6-4) at Denver Broncos (5-5)
Line: Chargers by 3. Total: 47.
Sunday, Nov. 28, 4:05 PM


The Matchup. Edge: None.

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SAN ANGELES OFFENSE: Justin Herbert had to be thrilled to learn that he would be avoiding T.J. Watt last week. Young quarterbacks tend to fold under pressure, but the Steelers didn’t really have many players to rattle Herbert, who had a terrific performance against Pittsburgh and its skeleton-crew defense.

The Broncos are also missing a handful of starters, including Von Miller, Bradley Chubb and the two inside linebackers. However, they’ve been getting decent heat on the quarterback from the edge with Jonathon Cooper and Malik Reed. Plus, Denver blitzes frequently, and Herbert really struggles against the blitz. The last time Herbert battled a team that blitzes as much as the Broncos, he was humiliated in a blowout defeat at Baltimore.

While the Broncos have found solid replacements for their edge rushers, the same can’t be said about their inside linebackers. Denver will struggle to cover the middle of the field once again, which doesn’t bode well against Austin Ekeler.

DENVER OFFENSE: Ekeler won’t be the only running back picking up big gains in this matchup. The Chargers are woeful against the run, so Javonte Williams and Melvin Gordon figure to thrive. I hope Denver did some self-evaluation during the bye because that would mean Williams would receive more carries than Gordon. Williams has more broken tackles per carry than any running back in the NFL.

Williams and Gordon will put Teddy Bridgewater into easier passing downs. Bridgewater will need this boost, given that the Chargers have the eighth-best pressure rate in the NFL. Luckily for Bridgewater, he’s protected by a decent offensive line.

Bridgewater will also be hoping for Asante Samuel Jr. to miss this game with a concussion. Samuel suffered his second concussion in a short time frame this past Sunday, so there could be concern enough to keep him out of action this week. Samuel is the Chargers’ best outside cornerback, so his absence would upgrade Courtland Sutton’s matchup.

RECAP: The public is betting the Chargers at such a high rate that it almost seems like free money. It’s like the sportsbooks are yelling, “Hey everyone, come place your bets on the Chargers and then collect so you don’t have to work for another year!”

I might be the only person on the planet on the Broncos. I’m old enough to remember the Chargers losing to the Vikings, Patriots and Ravens recently. All three of those teams brought heavy pressure on Herbert. As mentioned, Herbert struggles against the blitz. The Broncos blitz at the third-highest rate in the NFL, so that doesn’t bode well for Herbert.

Perhaps the sportsbooks recognize this liability for the Chargers because that could explain why most sportsbooks aren’t budging off 2.5. They’d still take tons of Chargers bets at -3, so it’s very telling that they’re keeping this spread at -2.5. That said, I would still buy up to +3 if you plan on betting Denver with me because three is the ultimate key number.

THURSDAY THOUGHTS: Wow, they will not move this line off +2.5. The sportsbooks have to be very fearful that the sharps will hammer the +3.

SATURDAY NOTES: I really liked the Broncos earlier in the week, but they will be missing three offensive linemen. This was the case against the Eagles, yet the backup blockers held up well. However, there’s a big difference between the Eagles and the Chargers’ pass rushes. That said, the Chargers could be down multiple offensive linemen as well with Matt Feiler being LDL in practice this week. This is either going to be a small wager or a non-bet on Denver.

SUNDAY MORNING NOTES: This line finally moved to +3. I believe this is because of the offensive line issues for the Broncos. The Chargers still have some concerns with their offensive line, so I’m looking forward to seeing the final injury report.

FINAL THOUGHTS: Both teams had some unpleasant injury news prior to kickoff. The Broncos will be without Shelby Harris, one of their top defensive linemen, while the Chargers will be missing Matt Feiler, meaning they’ll be down two offensive linemen. Denver, of course, is also dealing with blocking issues. I’m going to stick with a two-unit wager on the Broncos. The best line is +3 -115 at both BetUS and Bovada. There’s no sharp action here.

Minnesota Vikings (5-5) at San Francisco 49ers (5-5)
Line: 49ers by 3.5. Total: 49.
Sunday, Nov. 28, 4:25 PM


The Matchup. Edge: 49ers.

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SAN FRANCISCO OFFENSE: The 49ers had an impressive performance against the 49ers. They were up 17-0 in the middle of the second quarter before Trevor Lawrence took his fifth snap. Part of this was a 20-play, 13-minute drive to start the game.

The 49ers will not have the same sort of success this week. They had the luxury of battling the Jaguars, who are completely inept when it comes to defending the middle of the field. The Vikings, on the other hand, are quite great against it. They have high marks against tight ends and runners used as receivers out of the backfield. They’ll be able to limit Deebo Samuel and George Kittle, which is something the Jaguars couldn’t do whatsoever.

The Vikings are at their weakest versus opposing ground attacks, so the 49ers will be able to beat them that way. That said, I wouldn’t expect much out of San Francisco’s running game if Elijah Mitchell is sidelined once again. Jeff Wilson Jr. is not an impressive player, so he wouldn’t be a viable replacement in this matchup.

MINNESOTA OFFENSE: Like the Vikings, the 49ers aren’t very good at stopping the run. This defensive liability hasn’t been exposed in recent weeks because San Francisco has jumped out to huge leads. Darrell Henderson and James Robinson barely saw the ball as a result.

That certainly won’t be the case for Dalvin Cook in this contest, given that Minnesota’s defense matches up well versus what the 49ers try to do offensively. Cook will turn his many carries into big rushing yardage against San Francisco.

Cook’s excellent running will put Kirk Cousins into better situations. Cousins’ receivers have big edges over the 49er cornerback group, which has been ravaged by injury this year.

RECAP: You’d think that Minnesota’s win over the Packers would make people enthusiastic to bet them. Instead, this is drawing 50-50 action because the public is so enamored with San Francisco’s win over Jacksonville. Umm… OK.

This reminds me of last week’s Redskins at Panthers game. Everyone should’ve been focused on Washington beating Tampa, but instead was too obsessed with Carolina’s misleading victory versus Arizona. The 49ers beating the Jaguars was not anything to write home about, but the Vikings’ victory over the Packers was a big deal.

The Vikings have played close games all year, with nearly all of their games coming down to the final 60 seconds. Thus, I like getting them as an underdog. I believe their defense matches up well with what San Francisco is trying to do, so I’m going to bet several units on the Vikings.

THURSDAY THOUGHTS: I’m going to cancel my projected wager for this game because the Everson Griffen situation. The Vikings could be distracted by what’s happening with him.

SATURDAY NOTES: I was high on the Vikings earlier in the week, and then I was lukewarm on them once the Everson Griffen news broke. Now, Dalvin Tomlinson will also be sidelined because he caught a cold. Minnesota has the second-highest pressure rate in the NFL, but only because of guys like Griffen, Tomlinson and Danielle Hunter, who is also out. The Vikings now have a skeleton crew front line, so I’m going to switch to San Francisco.

SUNDAY MORNING NOTES: Sharp movement has moved this line to -3.5. The Vikings typically keep games close, so I’m considering moving back to them at +3.5. However, their entire defensive line will be sidelined, so this just seems like a great matchup for San Francisco.

FINAL THOUGHTS: Elijah Mitchell will play, while Minnesota’s entire defensive line is out. This is obviously a great situation for the 49ers. I’m going to bet one unit on San Francisco at -3 -120, which is available at FanDuel. The sharps are on San Francisco.

Los Angeles Rams (7-3) at Green Bay Packers (8-3)
Line: Rams by 2. Total: 47.
Sunday, Nov. 28, 4:25 PM


The Matchup. Edge: Rams.

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GREEN BAY OFFENSE: What Aaron Rodgers did against the Vikings in his comeback attempt was amazing when considering how much pain he was feeling. Rodgers said that his toe injury was “worse than turf toe,” so it’s incredible that he was able to battle Minnesota down to the final minute.

Rodgers should be healthier this week, but this is a much tougher spot for him, given that David Bakhtiari was ruled out already. Replacement left tackle Elgton Jenkins suffered a season-ending injury, so Green Bay will be down to its third-string left tackle. This sounds like serious trouble against the Rams, who have Jalen Ramsey to smother Davante Adams. In other words, a hurt Rodgers, getting minimal blocking, will have to throw to his second and third receivers. That doesn’t sound great.

The Rams also stuff the run well, so A.J. Dillon can’t be counted on to be a big producer. Rodgers will continue to pepper Dillon with targets, but this strategy won’t be all too effective.

LOS ANGELES OFFENSE: Rodgers isn’t the only quarterback who has dealt with a recent injury. Matthew Stafford’s back was problematic prior to the bye, which would explain his lackluster performances against the Titans and 49ers.

It’s unclear if Stafford will be 100 percent, but the bye week couldn’t have come at a better time. While it’s no guarantee, the week off may have allowed Stafford’s back to heal. If so, he could have a strong performance against a Green Bay pass defense that has lost some pass rushers to injury. He’ll connect repeatedly with Cooper Kupp and Van Jefferson, and perhaps even Odell Beckham Jr., who will actually know some aspects of the offense this week.

The Rams also have a plus matchup in the running game. Darrell Henderson will be going up against one of the worst run defenses in the NFL, so he figures to pick up big chunks of yardage on the ground.

RECAP: There’s a huge conflict in this contest. I love betting great coaches like Sean McVay coming off a bye because excellent coaches can create some terrific game plans with extra time to prepare. Conversely, I love wagering on elite quarterbacks coming off losses, which applies to Rodgers this week.

Moreover, we don’t know the injury statuses of the two signal-callers in question. Stafford’s back could still be a problem, while Rodgers’ toe may continue to bother him. We’ll have to learn more from the injury report. I’ll currently mark down the Rams as “TBA units,” so check back later or follow me @walterfootball.

THURSDAY THOUGHTS: Aaron Rodgers missed Wednesday’s practice, which is not a good sign. I may decide to bet the Rams if there are more missed practices.

SATURDAY NOTES: Aaron Rodgers will play, but he didn’t practice at all this week. This is a downgrade from what we saw in Week 11. If Rodgers can’t move on his viral toe, it’ll be an issue for him against the Rams’ pass rush that will dominate against an offensive line missing three starters. There’s some question about Matthew Stafford’s back, but Stafford didn’t appear on any injury report this week, so there’s a good chance he’s completely healthy again. I will be betting three units on the Rams.

SUNDAY MORNING NOTES: There was a report Sunday morning talking about Matthew Stafford’s back and elbow still bothering him. So, why wasn’t he on the injury report at al!? This is incredibly frustrating, and the Rams deserve to be fined. I may drop my unit count.

FINAL THOUGHTS: The Packers got some good news with Aaron Jones, Rashan Gary and Allen Lazard all returning. However, I still like the Rams, even with the dubious report on Matthew Stafford in the morning. I’m going to stick with a three-unit wager. The best line is -2 -108 at Bookmaker. The sharps were on the Rams earlier in the week.

Cleveland Browns (6-5) at Baltimore Ravens (7-3)
Line: Ravens by 3. Total: 47.
Sunday, Nov. 28, 8:20 PM


The Matchup. Edge: None.

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BALTIMORE OFFENSE: Lamar Jackson was a surprise inactive last week, which killed my Baltimore -4 bet that I made ahead of time. It would be shocking if Jackson sat out a second straight game. Hopefully he takes my doctorly advice and gets more Vitamin C and D into his diet because there’s no reason he should be getting sick so often.

Jackson figures to return in a decent matchup. His offensive line got a boost with Patrick Mekari’s return last week, so the blocking unit should do well against a Cleveland defense with a low pressure rate. Jackson is also weak to the blitz, but Cleveland blitzes infrequently.

The Browns also struggle against tight ends, which is a death sentence against the Baltimore offense because Jackson attacks the middle of the defense so often. Jackson will be able to hit Mark Andrews repeatedly for big gains as he keeps the chains moving and thrives in his return to action.

CLEVELAND OFFENSE: The Browns didn’t have much of an offense against the Lions last week. They had numerous long runs negated by shady holding penalties last week, but the main take-away was that Baker Mayfield was nowhere close to 100 percent. It’s unclear why he even played when Case Keenum was more than capable of defeating Detroit.

Mayfield figures to be healthier this week, but he may not be 100 percent because he didn’t seem anywhere near that this past Sunday. Furthermore, Jarvis Landry isn’t healthy either, so it begs the question, where will Mayfield throw against a Baltimore defense that has allowed some big gains to receivers?

The answer to that is the tight ends, a position that the Ravens don’t defend very well. Baltimore allows some long runs as well, so that obviously bodes well for Nick Chubb.

RECAP: As long as Mayfield is banged up, it’ll be difficult to back the Browns. Of course, it’s not guaranteed to be clear if Mayfield is much healthier this week. We may learn something based on the injury report, but that could end up being misleading. What we do know is that we’re getting some line value with the Ravens. I thought we’d see line movement the other way, but in the wake of last week’s results, this line has fallen from -5 to -3.5, though some of this is the result of sharp action.

I’m not overly enthusiastic about betting this game at the moment. That may change later in the week once we get more information on Mayfield’s injury and other matters. For now, I’m leaning toward backing the Ravens for no units.

THURSDAY THOUGHTS: I may switch my pick. Jack Conklin and Kareem Hunt will be returning, which is a big deal. However, Baker Mayfield missed Wednesday’s practice. I would love to bet the Browns if Case Keenum started at a reduced price, of course.

SATURDAY NOTES: One team is getting healthier, while the other is extremely banged up suddenly. The Browns are the former. They’re getting Jack Conklin and Kareem Hunt back from injury, which is a huge deal. Baker Mayfield is still a question mark, but he practiced fully twice this week. The Ravens, meanwhile, might be missing both Brandon Williams and Calais Campbell, which makes me wonder how they’re going to stop the run. The Ravens will be down numerous cornerbacks as well, while Marquise Brown may not be 100 percent. I’m going to bet the Browns, but only lightly because I’m still worried about Mayfield.

SUNDAY MORNING NOTES: Sharp money has continued to back the Browns, which is not a surprise, given how many injuries the Ravens have.

FINAL THOUGHTS: The Ravens aren’t as banged up as initially expected. They’ll have Marquise Brown and Brandon Williams available. Williams returning is key because it’ll help the Ravens stop the Cleveland backs with Calais Campbell sidelined. Thus, I’m not going to bet this game, though if you do, +3 -105 is the best line at Bovada. I couldn’t find a +3.5 line better than the -135 vig at Bovada. The sharps were on Cleveland at +3.5 and above, but not at +3.

Seattle Seahawks (3-7) at Washington Redskins (4-6)
Line: Pick. Total: 46.5.
Monday, Nov. 29, 8:15 PM


The Matchup. Edge: Seahawks.

This week on ESPN, we’re going to have awful announcers calling the shots instead the great preseason homers like Kevin Reilly, Ron Wolfley and Don Tollefson, inept ESPN guys Emmitt, Herman Edwards, and aloof people like Jay Cutler. Here’s what it would sound like if some of these dudes (and some special guests) were calling this game:

Reilly: Welcome to the city of Washington D.C., the capital of not just America, but the entire world! Tonight, the Seattle Supersonics take on the Washington Redskins. Guys, I’m really excited to be here in Washington D.C. because Mother and I are going to take a tour of the White House tomorrow. However, Mother said New Daddy will take my place if I’m bad, so I’m going to try to not get into trouble during this broadcast.

Emmitt: Ali, I was so excitement I nearly lost my marbles when I goes to the White House. I wented to the Wide House a couple of time during my playing career. The President then was some guy name Bush Clinton. I sawed him have sexual with some of the young girl who work there, but they a lot older than the girls Joe Brandon have sexual with the hair with.

Reilly: Emmitt, you’re quickly becoming my sworn enemy. You’re trying your hardest to get me into trouble by saying the S-word, the one with the X in it. But I can’t call you my sworn enemy either because Mother has warned me that if I get too many sworn enemies, I’ll be grounded and won’t get to go to the White House and eat macaroni and cheese for dinner.

Tollefson: Kevin, would it be possible to stuff your mother in the closet so I can go to the White House with you? I’ve obtained female slaves to cook and clean for me across the globe, but I have yet to procure one of those attractive White House aides. I would like to kidnap at least four of them. I’ll be vaccinating them, of course, because I am not a monster.

Reilly: Tolly, I’d take you with me, but Mother will never serve me macaroni and cheese again, and I don’t know how to cook it. But what if- hey, what’s Adam Schefter doing under my desk!?

Schefter: Thanks, Kevin, I’ve been sitting here for six days waiting for my time to report the news. According to my sources, and I talked to Jason Licht, so I can report this freely, the NFL’s e-mails will be released soon, and there are many e-mails from Kevin Reilly that will be released soon. In other news, I’ve taken 511 virus tests today, and 489 came back negative and the others are inconclusive. Stay tuned for updates later, Kevin!

Reilly: Oh no, not my e-mails! I thought I’d be getting away with my e-mails, but it’s going to come back to haunt me. I’d defect out of this country and help Tolly kidnap female slaves, but Mother says I can’t leave my house for more than a couple of days in a row, or I’ll get into trouble. I also can get caught talking to girls, even if they’re female slaves.

Joe Biden: I like female slaves, especially when you’re trying to cross a bridge in a thunderstorm. How are you going to cross the bridge in a thunderstorm when the wind is howling, the flame is burning, and the octupus teaches you European history? I was a part of that group recently, and I was with my female slave. She just finished arts and crafts at the local school, and she was studying for a test. She asked me, Mr. Brandon, what is one plus one? I answered, you don’t need to know that, just sit on my lap and let me sniff your hair and drink your blood so I can increase my life force.

Donald Trump: Excuse me, excuse me, did anyone just hear what Sleepy, Creepy Joe just said!? He just said he drinks his female slaves’ blood! Sleepy, Creepy Joe is probably one of the worst people when it comes to drinking blood. No one can drink blood as poorly as Sleepy, Creepy Joe, especially Eight Fingernails Matt Ryan. Got eight fingernails, that Eight Fingernails Matt Ryan. I call him Eight Fingernails Matt Ryan. The mainstream fake news will tell you that Sleepy, Creepy Joe is good at drinking blood, but he’s not, and believe me, everyone knows I’m great at telling who can drink blood well, and everyone agrees. Sleepy, Creepy Joe is the worst at drinking blood, and look, the cameras are turning off their lights! That’s because they are fake news, and they know that I’m correct, which is always the case, and everyone agrees!

Wolfley: DONALD, PLEASE STOP INSISTING THAT DRINKING CHILDREN’S BLOOD IS A BAD THING. I OFTEN BATHE IN CHILDREN’S BLOOD BECAUSE IT’S AN EASY WAY TO PUT SAUCE ON THE BOYS, IF YOU KNOW WHAT I’M SAYING.

Reilly: Shut up, idiots, there are more important issues at hand, which would be my e-mails! My e-mails are going to be released, and I’m gonna get into trouble! New Daddy, can you make sure I get to keep my job when my e-mails are released?

Jay Cutler: Did you just say you want to get shot? You got it, kid.

Alec Baldwin: BANG! BANG! BANG! I love shooting this pathetic kid even though I’m totally doing this by accident, I swear! BANG! BANG! BANG! If I were doing this on purpose, would I have my finger on the trigger? BANG! BANG! BANG!

Reilly: Please stop shooting me! You’re going to hit me one of these weeks!

Charles Davis: Kevin, sounds like you’re talking about measurements of time, Kevin. You mentioned weeks, Kevin, which is a good measurement of time, Kevin. How about days, Kevin? What do you think about minutes, Kevin? Let’s talk about hours, Kevin. How about a fireside chat about seconds, Kevin? Let’s delve into decades, Kevin. Hey, Kevin, what about Kevins, Kevin? Kevins take an eternity, Kevin because Kevin is super slow, Kevin.

Reilly: HEY, SHUT UP, A**HOLE, YOU’RE MY SWORN ENEMY, WHICH MEANS- UH OH, GUESS I WON’T BE GOING TO THE WHITE HOUSE, DAMN IT! I GUESS YOU CAN GO AHEAD AND KIDNAP WHITE HOUSE FEMALE SLAVES IN MY PLACE, TOLLY! We’ll be back after this!

SEATTLE OFFENSE: I’ve heard some wild statements made by members of the media in the wake of Seattle’s surprising loss to the Cardinals. I saw an ESPN headline asking, “Is the Russell Wilson era over in Seattle?” Someone with tons of Twitter followers suggested that Wilson would quit on the team because the Seahawks are less than four percent to make the playoffs.

Wilson is the ultimate competitor, so I can’t see him quitting at all. He could be like the black knight from the Monty Python movie and would try to play. Coming off two ugly losses, Wilson will be eager to bounce back with a vengeance, and he should be able to do so against the Redskins’ defense. Washington is missing its top two edge rushers and has well-documented issues in the secondary. Wilson, if healthier, should be able to exploit these liabilities with D.K. Metcalf and Tyler Lockett, both of whom have terrific matchups.

WASHINGTON OFFENSE: Taylor Heinicke has looked great the past two weeks, but this wasn’t too much of a surprise. Heinicke thrives against the blitz, and both the Buccaneers and Panthers are among the top five in blitz rate. Heinicke chewed up these defenses with ease.

The Seahawks blitz at a middling percentage, so this isn’t as easy of a matchup for Heinicke, at least from a scheme perspective. As far as personnel is concerned, it really depends if D.J. Reed is able to return from injury. Reed, Seattle’s best cornerback, missed last week’s contest against the Cardinals. Having Reed will be crucial against Terry McLaurin, especially when considering Seattle’s issues when it comes to stopping tight ends. Logan Thomas figures to do very well if he can return from injury as well.

Seattle should at least be able to stop Antonio Gibson. The Seahawks’ ground defense is ranked in the top 10 in the NFL as far as YPC is concerned, so Gibson will be limited.

RECAP: I love betting great quarterbacks off a loss, and I love betting great quarterbacks off two consecutive defeats even more. Wilson has been humiliated in two consecutive games, so I expect him to be much better this week.

Granted, there’s some risk with Wilson not being 100 percent, but Week 12 was the beginning of the window in which he was supposed to return in the first place. Plus, there’s no denying that we’re getting amazing value. The advance spread for this game was Seattle -3.5, but now it’s a pick ’em! Not only that; the public is betting the Redskins at a high rate. There was FOMO betting on the Seahawks last week, and I fell into that trap. Now, there’s FOMO betting on the Redskins because everyone assumes Seattle is done. The Seahawks can run the table and finish 10-7, so there’s still some hope for them.

THURSDAY THOUGHTS: An insane number of bets continue to come in on the Redskins. I love it because we continue to get a better number with Russell Wilson coming off two consecutive losses.

SATURDAY NOTES: A major reason why the Redskins have been so hot off their bye is that they’ve had their offensive line mostly healthy after missing Brandon Scherff and Sam Cosmi for several games. Chase Roullier has been out, but Scherff and Cosmi returned. That has now changed, as Cosmi will be sidelined this Monday night, while Roullier’s backup will also be out. This makes me even more bullish on the Seahawks.

SUNDAY MORNING NOTES: Nothing new to add here since last night. The Redskins are now overrated because of their offensive line injuries.

FINAL THOUGHTS: There’s been sharp money coming in on the Seahawks all day Monday, pushing this line up to -2. Perhaps the pros know something positive about Russell Wilson. Either way, I’m glad to be on the same side. This will be a five-unit wager on -2 -107, which is available at Bookmaker.