NFL Picks Against the Spread: Week 10, 2021

Minnesota Vikings (3-5) at Los Angeles Chargers (5-3)
Line: Chargers by 3. Total: 53.5.
Sunday, Nov. 14, 4:05 PM


The Matchup. Edge: None.

Video of the Week: This is topical after what was revealed in a famous diary in recent days. How awkward would it be if you brought up incest porn in a regular conversation? Now, you don’t have to wonder anymore:



The guy on the right could’ve just played it off as a joke, but when he cited that the girl in the video was exactly 22, it became evident that he does, in fact, watch incest porn!

SAN ANGELES OFFENSE: Justin Herbert was excellent against the Eagles last week as he attempted to rebound from two consecutive defeats. His offense scored on every single possession in the second half, as he completed most of his passes throughout the afternoon.

The trick to beating Herbert is to blitz him often. He struggles mightily versus the blitz, which is why it was so odd to see the Eagles refrain from utilizing that strategy. The Vikings blitz a moderate amount, so they could crank that up to slow down Herbert if they’ve been paying attention. That’ll make it difficult for Herbert to continue converting third and fourth downs at a high rate, especially given that Mike Williams is dealing with some sort of knee injury, which Charles Davis reported live during last week’s telecast.

MINNESOTA OFFENSE: Kirk Cousins is the opposite of Herbert. He tends to play very well versus the blitz, which is one of the reasons why I liked the Vikings over the Ravens last week. Cousins hit Justin Jefferson with a 50-yard touchdown bomb early, then led a great, game-tying drive at the end of regulation. He scored three touchdowns in total.

Cousins has another positive outlook in this contest. The Chargers blitz at the 11th-highest rate in the NFL, so Cousins will take advantage of these opportunities. Plus, the Chargers have cornerback injury concerns, so it’ll be difficult for them to cover the Minnesota receivers.

Then again, all Cousins needs to do is hand the ball off to Dalvin Cook. The Chargers have one of the worst run defenses in the NFL, so Cook will be able to take advantage of that with a huge performance.

RECAP: One of this Web site’s long-time readers, VikingsSteve, pointed out that excluding the Seattle game in Week 3, every single contest the Vikings have played this year has been decided in the final 60 seconds. I can confirm this as being true, and he even said this before the Baltimore-Minnesota overtime affair.

The Vikings have endured a brutal schedule this year. They’ve been so close to defeating the Bengals (lost in overtime), Cardinals (lost on last-second missed field goal), Cowboys (allowed touchdown drive at the end) and Ravens (lost in overtime). They’re 3-5, but could easily be 6-2 or 7-1 right now. If that were the case, this spread would be completely different.

The Chargers, meanwhile, also play nothing but close games. Most of their contests have been decided by one score, so I expect that trend to continue. However, it must also be considered that they’ve been lucky this year, as they’ve had a high success rate on third and fourth down. They were also fortunate in their wins, as the opposing team committed untimely turnovers. Recall the Antonio Gibson lost fumble in Week 1, or all of the balls that bounced off Chief players’ hands in Week 3, or all the injuries the Browns suffered in Week 5.

I expect this game to go down to the wire, so either side could win. In a situation like this, I’m more eager to the side with the underdog, so I’m picking the Vikings. Besides, Minnesota is underrated right now and will have the road-field advantage with its fans in the stands, so that’ll help. If you bet Minnesota, make sure you buy up to +3.

THURSDAY THOUGHTS: This is the other leg of my teaser. As mentioned earlier, outside of the victory over Seattle, every game of Minnesota’s has come down to the final 60 seconds. This line has bumped up a bit – at least on the vig – likely because of the Dalvin Cook news. I don’t care about Cook’s status at all because Alexander Mattison is an excellent backup.

SATURDAY NOTES: There are so many injury question marks. The sharps are betting the Chargers because several Viking players – namely Harrison Smith, Garrett Bradbury – will be sidelined with illnesses. Let’s hope they beat the odds and recover. Meanwhile, the Chargers may not have Joey Bosa after he missed Friday’s practice. Keenan Allen is also questionable, but the Chargers will at least have Kenneth Murray and Asante Samuel Jr. back on the field. Either way, I’m not betting this game outside of the Vikings +9 teaser leg.

SUNDAY MORNING NOTES: Sharp money on the Chargers is pushing this line up to -3.5. I might bet the Vikings later today, so check back around 3:15-3:30 for updates!

FINAL THOUGHTS: The sharps, as mentioned, bet the Chargers at -3. With some +3.5s available – you can get it for -112 vig at FanDuel – I like the Vikings for a unit. They and the Chargers play nothing but close games, so I think there’s good value with the +3.5 line.

Carolina Panthers (4-5) at Arizona Cardinals (8-1)
Line: Cardinals by 8.5. Total: 41.5.
Sunday, Nov. 14, 4:05 PM


The Matchup. Edge: TBA.

The Adventures of Tom Brady’s Haircuts are complete. They may return in the future, but I had to stop them for now.

By the way, my other book is still available as well:



In this book, I talk about the top NFL Draft busts, and what would’ve happened had each team gone a different route. Also, I discuss why Roger Goodell has banned us from the NFL Combine.

ARIZONA OFFENSE: It’s currently unclear if Kyler Murray will start this week. We also don’t know about DeAndre Hopkins’ status. Yet, there’s a spread available to bet at the moment, which would’ve been unheard of about a decade ago. We likely wouldn’t have seen a spread until Sunday morning, provided we didn’t learn of Murray’s status before then!

The Cardinals may opt to hold out Murray one more game because they have to battle the Seahawks next week. Either way, it’s a difficult matchup for Arizona’s offense. If Murray plays, he may not be 100 percent, and he also may not have Hopkins at his disposal. The Panthers have an excellent pass defense that generates great pressure on the quarterback and now covers better with Stephon Gilmore on the roster.

The Panthers are at their weakest against the run. James Conner figures to have a good game, but I doubt he’ll have the same sort of performance he enjoyed last week versus the no-effort 49ers.

CAROLINA OFFENSE: It’s also unclear if Sam Darnold will play this week. Darnold is dealing with a shoulder injury and is considered “day-to-day.” I didn’t think getting spooked by ghosts caused players to suffer injured shoulders, yet here we are.

This is yet another situation where I want Phillip Walker to play. I planned on betting the Panthers last week because I thought we were getting Walker, but Darnold was named the starter late in the week. If Darnold gets the nod, he may not be 100 percent. If it’s Walker, Carolina will play harder for its backup quarterback.

The Panthers should be able to move the ball regardless via Christian McCaffrey. The dynamic back will see more touches this week, and he has a good matchup against an Arizona front missing J.J. Watt.

RECAP: I’m going to be on the Panthers no matter what. The Cardinals are coming off a huge upset win and are now big favorites. They have to battle the Seahawks next week, so this is a classic look-ahead spot.

The injury report will dictate how many units I’ll be betting on Carolina. If Murray starts, I’d like to fade an injured quarterback in his first game back. I’m also fine fading Colt McCoy because this spread is too high for him. The Panthers’ quarterbacking situation is more significant. I want Walker to start because I don’t trust that Darnold is healthy. Then again, if Darnold practices fully every day this week, I’ll be comfortable with a big wager on the Panthers.

Check back later for the official unit count, or follow me @walterfootball for udpates.

THURSDAY THOUGHTS: Sam Darnold has been placed on injured reserve, so Phillip Walker will start. This is great news for Carolina bettors, and it’s telling that the spread hasn’t moved at all in the wake of this news. That’s how bad Darnold has been.

SATURDAY NOTES: The Cardinals’ injury report is a mess. We all know about Kyler Murray, DeAndre Hopkins and J.J. Watt. However, the Cardinals will be missing two starting offensive linemen (including top guard Justin Pugh) and potentially Budda Baker as well. I love the Panthers regardless of whether Murray starts.

SUNDAY MORNING NOTES: This line is plummeting because it’s sounding like Kyler Murray won’t play. I’m going to lock this in now for five units before the spread falls even more. The best line is +8.5 -110 at DraftKings.

FINAL THOUGHTS: As expected, Kyler Murray and DeAndre Hopkins are out. If you haven’t bet the Panthers yet, the best line is +7 -105 at Bovada. The sharps are on Carolina.

Seattle Seahawks (3-5) at Green Bay Packers (7-2)
Line: Packers by 3. Total: 48.5.
Sunday, Nov. 14, 4:25 PM


The Matchup. Edge: Packers.

If you’re unaware of this, you can publish your own articles on this Web site and have them promoted via Twitter, Facebook and this page! Check out our Open Rant feature, where articles get promoted all the time. Some readers’ articles have gotten more than 3,000 views (one even had 100,000!), so if you want to get your opinion heard, here’s a great way for you to do so!

Some recent Open Rant articles:

Reader 2017 NFL Draft Re-Grades

Reader NFL Power Rankings

First Bummer with DraftKings

Reader 2021 NFL Draft Grades for Each Pick

If you want to create NFL Mock Drafts and NBA Mock Drafts, we have you covered as well. Check out the Mock Draft Builder. Some mocks on here have gotten more than 6,000 views!

Make sure you get your pick in for the WalterFootball.com 2021 NFL Survivor Pool.

Also, check out our Fantasy Football Who to Start Weekly Rankings for weekly fantasy start-sit advice.

SEATTLE OFFENSE: There’s big news on both quarterback fronts in this game. For the Seahawks, Russell Wilson will return since suffering an injury against the Rams on a Thursday night in Week 5. He’s been cleared to play, so he’ll displace Geno Smith as Seattle’s starting cornerback.

Wilson’s return has caused this spread to plummet two-and-a-half points, dropping from +5.5 to +3. This is the correct movement in a vacuum, but it’s not clear if Wilson will be completely healthy. We’ve seen quarterbacks return from injury and struggle in their first game back because they’re not 100 percent. Wilson could be no different, even in a matchup in which he’s avoiding Jaire Alexander.

Wilson could opt to hand the ball off to Alex Collins, and doing so would be an intelligent decision. Not only would Wilson refrain from exposing himself while not at full strength; he’ll also take advantage of the Packers’ woeful ground defense.

GREEN BAY OFFENSE: Aaron Rodgers, of course, has been in the news as well. Per NFL rules, he’ll be cleared to play by Saturday, but this would require negative tests. Also, we don’t know if Rodgers will survive this deadly scourge, with the virus’ super-high death rate and all. That’s why there’s all this hoopla surrounding Rodgers, right? He’s certainly in my prayers, and he can be in yours while wearing this awesome new Aaron Rodgers t-shirt you can find in the merch store.

Rodgers figures to be in F-U mode as a result of being criticized so much by the media. He has an easy matchup on top of that, as the Seahawks struggle to get to the quarterback and cover in the secondary.

Seattle is better against the run than the pass, but Aaron Jones and A.J. Dillon figure to be big parts of the passing game. The Seahawks haven’t done well versus pass-catching backs.

RECAP: The sharps have walked this spread down from +5.5 to +3, likely because of the Wilson news. I imagine that this also could be a speculative wager on the Seahawks just in case Rodgers either tests positive again or doesn’t survive. Getting the Seahawks at +3 versus No Cookie Jordan Love is a steal.

Assuming Rodgers pulls through, I like the Packers. We’re getting some nice value with them – this spread should be greater than three – while Wilson may not be 100 percent after returning from such a long hiatus. Quarterbacks returning from injury have fared very poorly, so Wilson could be next in line to struggle. Meanwhile, Rodgers will be pissed, so he’ll play at his best.

The number of units I bet on this game will be determined by the injury report. I’d like to see Wilson undergo some limited practices before I wager on the Packers.

THURSDAY THOUGHTS: The sharps were on the Seahawks earlier in the week, but some other pro money has come in on Green Bay at -3. Perhaps this was in response to David Bakhtiari being activated from injured reserve.

SATURDAY NOTES: Aaron Rodgers has been cleared to play. I didn’t think he’d survive, but he beat the odds. Not only will he live; he’ll play this Sunday. I received questions from various people regarding the mental state of the Packers. Some wondered if some of Rodgers’ teammates wouldn’t play as hard for him because he lied and cost them a game. Others asked if Rodgers would be rusty after not practicing at all. I suppose the former could be possible, but I’m under the impression that his teammates already knew he lied to the mainstream media, which is OK in my book because mainstream media members are on par with tobacco executives. As for the latter, that might be a bigger problem. However, I’d like to date myself here and cite that Steve McNair, back in either 2002 or 2003, would always play despite never practicing due to injury, and he always did well. I think Rodgers will be fine. The greater concern I have is with Russell Wilson, who may not be fully recovered. Wilson even admitted that he’s 90 percent, which makes me like the Packers as a fade of an injured quarterback.

SATURDAY NOTES II: Aaron Rodgers has been added to the injury report with a toe injury, but will play in this game. This is a major red flag for me because Rodgers likely won’t be 100 percent. It’s unclear how serious this toe issue is, but I don’t want to bet on a banged-up quarterback, especially if he’s favored.

SUNDAY MORNING NOTES: There’s snow on the field, which could hurt Russell Wilson, as Jacob Camenker pointed out on Twitter. It’s a good point, and it makes me lean toward Green Bay, but the sharps are betting the Seahawks heavily.

FINAL THOUGHTS: I’m still torn on this game because both quarterbacks are injured. The sharps bet the Seahawks above +3, but not at +3. If you like the Packers, you can get -3 -113 at Bookmaker. If you want to bet the Seahawks, you can get +3.5 -115 at Bovada.

Philadelphia Eagles (3-6) at Denver Broncos (5-4)
Line: Broncos by 1. Total: 44.5.
Sunday, Nov. 14, 4:25 PM


The Matchup. Edge: Eagles.

Emmitt on the Brink was posted here. Now, Emmitt makes an appearance in my new book, How the 2020 MVP Was Stolen!

You can support the site by buying this book and spreading the word!



A reminder that Jerks of the Week for this week is up, so just click the link. This week’s jerks entry is about shortages, and the top five things you should hoard in the near future.

DENVER OFFENSE: I did not expect the Broncos to be able to run on the Cowboys. Not that they wouldn’t be able to do it matchup-wise, but because the Cowboys would undoubtedly hold a huge lead. Denver was missing half of its defensive starters, while Dallas was welcoming back Dak Prescott from injury, so the Cowboys were expected to maintain a double-digit advantage. Prescott, however, was not 100 percent. The Cowboys were consequently stuck at no points for the majority of the afternoon.

I do not expect the Broncos to run well in this contest either. The matchup is much more difficult, as the Eagles’ stout run defense has put the clamps on D’Andre Swift and Austin Ekeler in the past couple of weeks. They’ll be able to limit Melvin Gordon and Javonte Williams.

Teddy Bridgewater doesn’t play nearly as well if he can’t operate in easier passing downs. He’ll have to deal with a tough Philadelphia front behind an offensive line missing several starters. The Eagles, meanwhile, have the cornerback talent to stick with his receivers.

PHILADELPHIA OFFENSE: As mentioned earlier, the Broncos are missing numerous defensive starters. This includes all four of their linebackers, as well as a defensive lineman and two of the top three cornerbacks. If Prescott were 100 percent, the Cowboys may have scored on nearly every possession.

Jalen Hurts is 100-percent healthy, and he has performed on a high level the past couple of weeks. He matched the Chargers point-for-point this past week, and he’ll have an easier matchup versus Denver’s injury-ravaged defense. The Broncos don’t have the linebackers to check Hurts’ scrambling ability or cover Dallas Goedert.

The Eagles also figure to run well on the Denver. Philadelphia’s coaching staff has suddenly remembered that it can call plays that have the quarterback hand the ball off to the running back, and all it took was an injury to Miles Sanders. The Broncos were gashed by D’Ernest Johnson a couple of weeks ago, and I expect similar treatment from Jordan Howard and Boston Scott.

RECAP: People really took Denver’s win over Dallas seriously. The advance spread in this game was Denver -1.5, and now it has moved up to -3.

It’s amazing how quickly people can forget what happened before the most recent week. Let me remind you of how the Broncos played in the three games before beating an injured Prescott: They had trouble dealing with the Redskins at home, needing two blocked field goals to survive. The week before that, they lost to a Cleveland backfield comprised of Case Keenum and D’Ernest Johnson. The week before that, they were blown out by the Raiders at home.

The Eagles are not a great team by any stretch of the imagination, but they can certainly beat an opponent with that sort of track record, especially when considering all the countless injuries.

Philadelphia is a huge play of mine this week. The Broncos are missing way too many players to be field goal favorites, and they’re likely to have a letdown following last week’s misleading victory. The Eagles, meanwhile, have gotten so much sharp money over the past several weeks, and I expect that to happen again. They have more talent than their record says they do, and they’ve endured an extremely difficult schedule thus far, as their losses since Week 3 have come against the 6-2 Cowboys, 5-4 Chiefs, 6-2 Buccaneers, 5-3 Raiders and 5-3 Chargers. The Broncos are not in the same pantheon as those teams, despite what transpired last week.

THURSDAY THOUGHTS: Darius Slay missed Wednesday’s practice. It won’t be ideal if he misses this game, but it’ll pale in comparison to how many players Denver won’t have. The Broncos will be down at least three offensive linemen, two cornerbacks, two edge rushers and two inside linebackers. The sharps just bet the Eagles heavily, moving this line off +3 in all sportsbooks. The best +3 I can currently find is +3 -130 at BetUS/DraftKings, which is better than +2.5. I’ll keep looking for a better +3.

SATURDAY NOTES: So much for finding a +3. This spread has continued to drop, as sharps are piling tons of money onto the Eagles once again. I love Philadephia this week as well. The Broncos will be down three offensive linemen in addition to two edge rushers, two inside linebackers and potentially two cornerbacks. Furthermore, Denver blitzes at the fifth-highest rate in the NFL, and Jalen Hurts is terrific against the blitz. He has thrown six touchdowns and no interceptions versus the blitz compared to five scores and four picks when not blitzed this year. His YPA when blitzed is 8.9, and it’s just 6.5 when not blitzed.

SUNDAY MORNING NOTES: Ugh. We’re not getting a +3, are we? I’ll keep looking.

FINAL THOUGHTS: All the +3s are long gone, as the sharps continued to pound the Eagles. The best line is now PK -105 at Bovada. I still love Philadelphia, as I expect it to win convincingly.

Kansas City Chiefs (5-4) at Las Vegas Raiders (5-3)
Line: Chiefs by 3. Total: 52.5.
Sunday, Nov. 14, 8:20 PM


The Matchup. Edge: None.

Here’s the Top Stocks to Buy page, where I told you about GameStop last year. It will be updated once per week, or sooner if there is any emergency news.

KANSAS CITY OFFENSE: It only took a few years, but teams have finally discovered how to combat Patrick Mahomes and some of the other elite, young quarterbacks. Opposing defenses have ceased blitzing and begun using a cover-2 shell to prevent any big plays. The Chiefs and Bills appear befuddled by how to deal with this at the moment.

The Chiefs have an answer right in front of them. They’ve been running the ball very well the past two weeks, but they haven’t done nearly often enough. A strong ground attack is what cracked the Buccaneers’ defense in 2003 when Stephen Davis and the Panthers exposed it, and that’ll work for the Chiefs as well. Andy Reid hates running the ball, but he needs to feed Darrel Williams and Derrick Gore as many carries as possible. He needs to transform his offense into the Titans’ style of attack.

That, however, could be difficult in this particular matchup. The Raiders are rather stout against ground attacks. They also have refrained from blitzing Mahomes in the past, and that will continue, given that they blitz less frequently than any other team in the NFL. They should have a good game plan prepared for the Chiefs’ scoring unit.

LAS VEGAS OFFENSE: While the Chiefs don’t match up all that well against the Raiders, the same can’t be said for this side of the ball. Of course, most offenses would look great when battling Kansas City’s anemic defense.

The Chiefs are especially poor against the run. This was the case last week when both Aaron Jones and A.J. Dillon were gashing the Chiefs, who had the luxury of playing closer to the line of scrimmage as a result of No Cookie Jordan Love being under center instead of Aaron Rodgers. Kansas City has endured issues tackling Josh Jacobs in the past, and that will once again be the case in this contest.

Jacobs’ excellent running will make things easier for Derek Carr, who will look to rebound from last week’s mistake-laden performance. This is a much easier matchup for Carr, who will have some sort of a deep threat in Desean Jackson. I imagine Jackson will only serve as a distraction, creating better opportunities for Darren Waller and Hunter Renfrow underneath.

RECAP: The Chiefs are favored because of everyone’s price memory. “Of course, they’re favored – they’re the Chiefs, and they’re playing the Raiders!” The public is betting Kansas City at a two-thirds clip, which is no surprise.

I don’t think that’s correct, however. The Raiders have been the better team this season, at least prior to Week 8. Las Vegas’ loss to the Giants had something to do with this line moving off the advance spread of +3, but the Raiders were clearly distracted by the Henry Ruggs situation as well as the look-ahead to this contest. If you want to read anything into that sloppy loss to the Giants, consider that the Raiders outgained New York, 403-245, and they averaged 1.5 more yards per play. The Raiders were the better team – and I’m saying this as someone who bet the Giants!

The Chiefs, conversely, lost the yardage battle to the No Cookie Jordan Love-led Packers, and they averaged 1.2 fewer yards per play. That’s how bad their offense has been, and the Raiders already have the answer for it.

I like the Raiders, if you couldn’t tell. I think the wrong team is favored in this contest, yet the public is betting that wrong team. That said, I’m a bit uspet that we’re no longer getting a +3 line, which is a huge deal because the Chiefs winning by three is a very likely result of this game.

THURSDAY THOUGHTS: I haven’t seen any +3s yet, and I’ll be a bit surprised if we get one because it seems as though the sharps are more likely to bet the Raiders. I could be wrong though, so we’ll see.

SATURDAY NOTES: The Chiefs are down two of their top three offensive tackles, which does not bode well against the Raiders’ excellent edge rush. The Raiders remain the play, but I’d really need a viable +3 to make a decent bet.

SUNDAY MORNING NOTES: Despite lots of public money on the Chiefs, this line hasn’t risen to -3. There’s lots of sharp action on the Raiders.

FINAL THOUGHTS: This is a classic sharp-public betting dynamic where the public is betting the Chiefs like crazy, while the sharps are on the Raiders. I was hoping to find a viable +3 line, and we have one at Bovada and FanDuel (+3 -115). There’s no question that you want that over +2.5 -105.

Los Angeles Rams (7-2) at San Francisco 49ers (3-5)
Line: Rams by 4. Total: 50.
Monday, Nov. 15, 8:15 PM


The Matchup. Edge: None.

This week on ESPN, we’re going to have awful announcers calling the shots instead the great preseason homers like Kevin Reilly, Ron Wolfley and Don Tollefson, inept ESPN guys Emmitt, Herman Edwards, and aloof people like Jay Cutler. Here’s what it would sound like if some of these dudes (and some special guests) were calling this game:

Reilly: Welcome to the city of San Francisco, home of the Poop Patrol! In tonight’s game, we have the San Francisco 49ers taking on the Los Angeles Kings. Guys, when I was walking through the airport, I heard news that kids can be vaccinated in San Francisco now, so I immediately went to CVS to get my shot. I tried to get the shot for cooties protection so I could finally convince Mother that I can talk to girls, but they told me that they didn’t have the cooties shot! Such BS!

Emmitt: Kang Sae-byeok, I do not knoweds why you would ever want to get a vaccine to prevent you against booties. Booties are my favorite part of woman after her eyes and her think.

Reilly: Emmitt, I said cooties; not the B-word you mentioned. I can’t say the B-word you said without getting grounded. That’s part of the reason I wanted the jab. Look, guys, I said “jab” instead of shot, which means I’m cool!

Tollefson: Kevin, only dorks say “jab.” If you want a cooties shot, I can give that to you. I have all sorts of vaccines because when I bring women slaves here on my slave ships, they need to be vaccinated so they don’t infect my other female slaves. I’m a good person, so I like to make sure my women slaves work in the healthiest conditions.

Reilly: Tolly, you’re such a great person. I’m proud to have you as my best friend.

Joe Biden: I have a best friend. It’s man’s best friend. It’s the you know, you know the thing that has four legs, floppy ears and a tail. The thing, you know it, it’s the thing. The thing that bit everyone around me even though we spent lots of money training it. I spent lots of time with the thing at the park. They said it was a chick magnet. I wanted to find chicks so they could lay the eggs. The girls I go on dates with, they usually don’t have eggs. So I wanted some eggs, and the thing was supposed to find the eggs, but the Easter Bunny, he stole them. My girlfriend sat on the Easter Bunny’s lap. Something smells, and it’s coming from my butt. I think I made chocolate ice cream again.

Donald Trump: Excuse me, excuse me, did anyone just hear what Sleepy, Creepy Joe just said!? He admitted that he goes on dates with young girls, and he also soiled himself. There’s poop in Sleepy Joe’s butt, and believe me, no one knows about poop in Sleepy Joe’s butt like I do, and everyone agrees! Everyone says I don’t know about poop in other men’s butts, but this is fake mainstream media news. Look at the lights on the cameras. Look at them! They’re all turning off their lights as soon as I criticized them! They all say that I know nothing about poop in men’s butts, but do you know anyone who knows more about this than I do!? No one does, including Tiny Hands Ryan Tannehill. I call him Tiny Hands, that Tiny Hands Ryan Tannehill!

Wolfley: DONALD, PLEASE REFRAIN FROM TALKING ABOUT POOP IN MEN’S BUTTS GOING FORWARD. IN MY CULTURE, MEN GATHER THIS AND PRESENT IT TO A POTENTIAL MATE FOR MARRIAGE, SO THIS IS A SACRED THING FROM MY HOME WORLD.

Reilly: Guys, we’re getting off topic here. How will I ever get a girlfriend if I don’t get my cooties shot? New Daddy, will you take me to get the shot?

Jay Cutler: You want to get shot? I think I can make that happen.

Alec Baldwin: BANG! BANG! BANG! Look at me, I’m such a great person for caring about gun safety! BANG BANG BANG! Anyone who likes guns is evil! BANG! BANG! BANG!

Reilly: New Daddy, why did you hire someone to shoot meeeee!?

Charles Davis: Kevin, sounds like you’re talking about professional gunmen, Kevin. We should have a chat about Wyatt Earp, Kevin. What do you think about Doc Holliday, Kevin? Let’s discuss Bat Masterson, Kevin. How about Billy the Kid, Kevin? Don’t forget about Wild Bill Hickok, Kevin. Let’s take a second and talk about Jesse James, Kevin. Did you know that Jesse James had a brother who was also a gunman, Kevin? His name was Frank James, Kevin. And who can forget about Alec Baldwin, Kevin? Alec Baldwin is shooting you, Kevin!

Reilly: I KNOW, A**HOLE, SOMEONE PLEASE STOP HIM! AHHHHHH!!! ! We’ll be back after this!

LOS ANGELES OFFENSE: Some of the Week 9 upsets caught many by surprise. I did not expect Jacksonville and Denver to win, but the Tennessee victory wasn’t a shocker. The Titans are a solid team, and Matthew Stafford missed practice time because of a back injury during the week. Stafford didn’t quite look like himself, as the Rams barely scored any points prior to garbage time.

It remains to be seen if Stafford will be healthier this week. He’ll have an easy matchup versus San Francisco’s injury-ravaged secondary that had trouble dealing with Colt McCoy and Arizona’s aerial offense this past Sunday. However, the 49ers can bring pressure, and the Titans were able to rattle Stafford in the pocket, so perhaps San Francisco’s defense can replicate that pressure.

The Rams can help neutralize this by feeding the ball to Darrell Henderson. The talented back didn’t get to run very much last week because of the huge deficit, but he will certainly have more of an opportunity Monday. We just saw James Conner abuse the 49ers’ run defense.

SAN FRANCISCO OFFENSE: The 49ers have endured injury issues over the past year-plus, and they lost yet another key player this past Sunday. That was right tackle Mike McGlinchey, which is rather poor timing against the Rams. Los Angeles might have Von Miller on the field for the first time this week, which will make an already-dominant, Aaron Donald-led Rams front much more difficult to block.

The pressure Jimmy Garoppolo will see is significant for the Rams’ defense because his weaponry is better than ever. George Kittle returned from injury last week to join the dynamic Deebo Samuel, while Brandon Aiyuk is finally developing into the first-round talent the 49ers envisioned when they selected him in the 2020 NFL Draft. The Rams have a Pro Bowl cornerback in Jalen Ramsey, but their secondary depth took a hit this past offseason when they lost some talent.

Garoppolo will have lots of pressure on his shoulders because the Rams figure to clamp down on the run. Los Angeles has an elite ground defense, so Eli Mitchell and the other running backs will struggle to find sufficient lanes.

RECAP: I like the value we’re getting with the 49ers. The advance spread was Los Angeles -3. The line for this game opened -4.5 before being bet down by the sharps to -4. Despite this, we’re still getting nice value by going through the ultimate key number of three and a minor key number of four.

Although we’re seeing value, the public is betting the Rams like it’s free money. The 49ers just suffered an epic defeat to Colt McCoy, after all. I think it’s a mistake to read anything into that. The 49ers believed they would be battling Kyler Murray and DeAndre Hopkins, but weren’t matched up against either. This was a letdown for them, so we didn’t see an A+ effort. They’ll try much harder in this contest.

Meanwhile, there’s a chance Stafford won’t be 100 percent yet. We’ll have to monitor what the practice report looks like. If Stafford continues to miss time, the 49ers will be a great bet. Check back later, or follow me @walterfootball for updates.

THURSDAY THOUGHTS: There was sharp money on the 49ers at +4.5, but not at +4. At least not yet. However, the big news is that Odell Beckham Jr. has joined the Rams. The public will love this, but I would downgrade the Rams a bit.

SATURDAY NOTES: The 49ers are missing two of their top three safeties, and they could be down all three top safeties if Jimmie Ward is sidelined again. This would obviously be a big edge to the Rams despite Robert Woods’ torn ACL. I plan on betting the 49ers if Ward plays, but I’m going to stay away from this game if that’s not the case.

SUNDAY MORNING NOTES: As mentioned on Saturday, we’re waiting on lots of injury news, so check back Monday evening.

FINAL THOUGHTS: I was waiting on Jimmie Ward news because the 49ers’ secondary tends to be discombobulated without both him and Jaquiski Tartt, who is sidelined. Ward will play, which makes the 49ers a nice bet. The sharps agree, as they’ve been betting San Francisco at +4.5, +4 and even +3.5. This is going to be a two-unit wager, and the best spread is +4 -111 at Bookmaker.