NFL Picks Against the Spread: Week 10, 2021

Baltimore Ravens (6-2) at Miami Dolphins (2-7)
Line: Ravens by 9. Total: 46.5.
Thursday, Nov. 11, 8:20 PM


The Matchup. Edge: None.

Week 9 Analysis: A fine week that could have been great. I’ll break down all the multi-unit picks once again:

Texans, 5 units (loss): I thought this was an auto win when Tua Tagovailoa was announced out. The Texans outgained the Dolphins and averaged 0.5 more yards per play. However, Tyrod Taylor gifted Miami the win and cover with that horrible interception prior to halftime. The Texans were also 0-of-4 in the red zone, including an interception and a field goal from the 1-yard line.

Vikings, 4 units (win): I would have gone five units on this had Harrison Smith not been ruled out prior to kickoff.

Falcons, 4 units (win): A solid win. This was a low-effort performance from the Saints after they upset the Buccaneers.

Packers, 4 units (win): No Cookie Jordan Love was horrific in his first start, but the Packers got the cover with a touchdown at the end. The Chiefs were horrible once again.

The first half of the season is finished. Let’s have a great second half!

A couple of things: First, I’m going to remind you every week that my wife is due around Christmas, so there will be a week in December when my picks and/or recaps could be released late. Second, I just published a book called How the 2020 MVP Was Stolen:



This book is not completely about football; it’s more political than anything, so some of you will hate it. In fact, it wouldn’t surprise me if Amazon bans it at some point, so get it while you can. Nevertheless, if you want to support the site, please consider ordering a copy!

BALTIMORE OFFENSE: I moved Lamar Jackson to the No. 2 spot in the MVP rankings in my NFL Power Rankings after what transpired last week. Not only did the other candidates lose; Jackson was brilliant in his comeback from down 24-10, ultimately winning in overtime. This was no surprise, as Jackson has improved his passing ability this year.

Of course, the Dolphins will also have to worry about Jackson as a runner. Jackson poses a great threat to a Miami defense that has some talent issues at linebacker. Excluding Tyrod Taylor, who did not seem to be 100 percent last week, the only mobile quarterback Miami has battled thus far is Josh Allen, and they’ve allowed 61 total points in two games to him.

The Dolphins blitz frequently, so that’s at least some hope for them. Jackson isn’t very good versus the blitz, so perhaps that’s one way the Dolphins can slow down Baltimore.

MIAMI OFFENSE: It’s unclear who will start at quarterback for the Dolphins. Tua Tagovailoa was a late scratch this past week, prompting the spread to drop 1.5 points when it was announced that Jacoby Brissett would start. Brissett was anemic against the Texans, yet managed to prevail because the hobbled Taylor was worse.

One might suspect that either Tagovailoa or Brissett would have a difficult matchup against the Ravens, but that’s not true. First of all, both quarterbacks tend to play well versus the blitz, which bodes well for them in this matchup because the Ravens blitz very frequently. Second, the Ravens miss plenty of tackles, which could hurt them against Jaylen Waddle and Mike Gesicki.

The Ravens also allow some big gains to opposing ground attacks, as we saw when Dalvin Cook broke free for a 66-yard burst this past week. Myles Gaskin could have some positive moments, as Miami’s coaching staff has been forced into using him because the horrible Malcolm Brown is injured.

RECAP: This is the same situation we were in last week. Teams playing on Thursday are a mind-boggling 4-24 against the spread coming off overtime if their opponent is not. I hate trends, but this makes sense, given how insane it is to play a football game on such short rest to begin with.

The Colts ended up covering despite being in that situation, but that involved Mike White suffering an injury. If the Dolphins don’t lose anyone significant, they should be able to hang around and cover this large spread. And yes, this is a large spread; the Ravens have just two victories of more than six points this year, and one involved a victory against a Denver team that lost Teddy Bridgewater to injury.

We’ll see what happens with the Dolphins’ quarterbacking situation and the spread as a result. I may end up betting this game, though I should note that I wouldn’t want to back an injured Tagovailoa.

Our Week 10 NFL Picks will be posted all day Tuesday. Follow @walterfootball for updates.

THURSDAY THOUGHTS: The Ravens will be missing Patrick Mekari once again, which means they’ll be without two offensive linemen. They won’t score as often as a result, allowing the Dolphins to get a back-door cover, if they even need it. Miami matches up well with Lamar Jackson; it blitzes at the second-highest rate in the NFL, and Jackson has been one of the worst quarterbacks in the NFL versus the blitz this year. When blitzed, Jackson has thrown four interceptions compared to three touchdowns, and his YPA is 7.3, compared to 8.9 when not blitzed. I’m going to bet two units on the Dolphins.

FINAL THOUGHTS: No Brandon Williams or Patrick Mekari for the Ravens. This is good news for the Dolphins, though the sharps haven’t touched them (or Baltimore). I still like Miami for two units. The best spread is +9 -110 at both Bovada and BetUS.

Jacksonville Jaguars (2-6) at Indianapolis Colts (4-5)
Line: Colts by 10. Total: 47.5.
Sunday, Nov. 14, 1:00 PM


The Matchup. Edge: Colts.

My overrated-underrated feature was posted in this spot the past couple of years. I thought it would be better if there was less clutter on this page, so I set up a new NFL Overrated and Underrated Teams page that will be updated every Monday. I have overrated and underrated teams listed there, and some may shock you!

INDIANAPOLIS OFFENSE: The Jaguars used a cover-2 shell versus the Bills, all while applying tremendous pressure on Josh Allen. The result was just six points for Buffalo in a shocking upset. Despite this strategy being successful, Jacksonville will need to attempt something else in this contest.

That defense won’t work versus the Colts despite Carson Wentz’s habit of taking deep shots because Indianapolis runs the ball so well with Jonathan Taylor. Buffalo couldn’t lean on its ground attack like the Colts can. Taylor figures to have a huge performance versus Jacksonville’s poor rush defense.

Wentz will be able to take advantage of Jacksonville’s attention to Taylor with his patented deep pass interferences. T.Y. Hilton figures to be back from his concussion, which will make the deep passing game even more lethal.

JACKSONVILLE OFFENSE: There’s some question about the health of the Jaguars’ backfield. A defender rolled into Trevor Lawrence’s leg prior to halftime last week. Lawrence missed one drive, but was diagnosed with an ankle sprain. It seems likely that he’ll play, but he may not be 100 percent. Meanwhile, James Robinson is dealing with a heal injury that kept him out of last week’s contest. The Jaguars technically didn’t need him to win, but then again, they scored just nine points without their star running back.

It’s difficult to run on the Colts, so Robinson will be needed to pose some sort of threat to alleviate attention from Lawrence. The Colts have a ferocious defensive line that will be able to bully Jacksonville in the trenches. A hobbled Lawrence will see so much pressure in this contest, so it’s difficult to envision him performing well.

RECAP: I was hoping for better line value after the Jaguars beat the Bills. I guess the win wasn’t too impressive, given that the spread dropped just a half point, moving from the advance number of -10.5 to -10.

I’d be willing to bet the Colts in this spot if it weren’t for one thing. They’re coming off extra rest, and they tend to sit on horrible teams. They’ve won by double digits against every single team they’ve played this year that had a losing record at the time the game took place. The Jaguars, who are certainly a horrible team, will be high coming off last week’s upset victory. Fading bad teams coming off huge upset victories is usually a good strategy.

The one thing that’s holding me back is that the Colts could be distracted. They have to battle the Bills next week, so they may not take this Jacksonville team seriously.

THURSDAY THOUGHTS: T.Y. Hilton practiced on a limited basis, which is a good sign for his availability Sunday. I don’t think this will be enough for me to place a bet on Indianapolis though.

SATURDAY NOTES: I spent some time thinking about this game, and I decided I wanted to bet on the Colts because Trevor Lawrence, playing behind an inept offensive line, would be on the field despite being injured. Lawrence had just one full practice all week, so he’s likely not 100 percent. However, the injury report shows that the Colts won’t have Xavier Rhodes and potentially DeForest Buckner. I don’t want to bet on a colossal favorite missing two starters at a position, and the Colts are down two corners. Thus, I won’t be betting on this game after all.

SATURDAY NOTES II: The Colts will be getting some reinforcements at cornerback, so I like them even though Xavier Rhodes is sidelined. I’m going to end up betting two or so units on the Colts, depending on Buckner’s status.

FOR-FUN PARLAY: I’m doing a seven-team parlay with four moneylines of teams I like and three alternative spreads of my favorite selections. I’m going with the Colts moneyline, Browns +3.5, Cowboys moneyline, Bills moneyline, Steelers moneyline, Panthers +10.5 and Eagles +3.5.

FINAL THOUGHTS: The only injury question mark we had in this game was DeForest Buckner. He’s active, which is great news for the Colts. I like them more with Buckner active, so I’ll be betting three units on them. The best line is -10 -108 at Bookmaker. There’s no sharp action to note.

Cleveland Browns (5-4) at New England Patriots (5-4)
Line: Patriots by 3. Total: 45.
Sunday, Nov. 14, 1:00 PM


The Matchup. Edge: Browns.

VEGAS UPDATE: I’ll be posting how the Vegas sportsbooks have done the previous week in this spot. The highest-bet sides were 34-42 in 2020 and 27-17 so far this year. As you can tell, the sportsbooks have taken a beating.

Here are the teams getting the most bets last week:

Bills -14.5

Raiders -3

Cowboys -10

Chargers -2.5

Rams -7.5

The sportsbooks were getting crushed in the first eight weeks. The tide finally turned this past week, with four of the five highest-bet teams failing to cover. Not only that; all of them lost outright, so all the teasers and moneyline parlays failed.

Here are the teams getting the most bets this week:

Buccaneers -9.5

Rams -4

Chiefs -2.5

Titans -3

Ravens -7.5

Seahawks +4

Once again, mostly road favorites. I’d chide the public for not learning their lesson, but they’ve won with these all year (prior to Week 9, that is).

NEW ENGLAND OFFENSE: Mac Jones has been very impressive at times this year, but he has taken a step back the past two weeks. He missed on numerous throws versus the Chargers, and he committed two turnovers against the Panthers. Of course, it didn’t end up mattering because his counterparts were guilty of more give-aways than he was in each contest, allowing the Patriots to come away with victories.

Both the Chargers and Panthers have stellar pass defenses, which would explain Jones’ sudden slump. The Browns are also terrific against aerial attacks, now that they have most of their defense healthy. We just saw Cleveland frustrate Joe Burrow into a couple of turnovers, including a back-breaking pick-six at the goal line. Jones could have similar struggles if the Patriots need him to do more.

That is certainly possible. New England has been able to lean on its ground attack against the soft Charger and Panther run defenses, but the Browns are stronger in that regard. Also, the Patriots’ top runners are banged up, so that’s an issue as well.

CLEVELAND OFFENSE: As mentioned, opposing quarterbacks have self-destructed versus the Patriots. Justin Herbert cost his team the victory with a pick-six, while Sam Darnold imploded with three interceptions in the second half last week. Both are young quarterbacks, a group that typically struggles against Bill Belichick. Baker Mayfield was in the same draft class as Darnold, so he would qualify as a young signal-caller.

Mayfield struggled versus the Steelers, but bounced back last week. Granted, he didn’t have to do much because his defense built him a huge lead, but he was efficient. He should be able to manage this game well if his defense is dominant, especially with Odell Beckham Jr. gone. However, if the Patriots can manage to score, and Mayfield needs to win this game, that’s where he could get into trouble. Belichick is the master of erasing one aspect of an opposing offense, so he may take away Jarvis Landry, forcing Mayfield to go to his tight ends and backup receivers.

Furthermore, the Patriots clamp down on the run very well. Thus, Nick Chubb won’t have the same performance he enjoyed last week. New England isn’t as good versus receiving backs, but Chubb doesn’t excel in that regard, and Kareem Hunt is still injured.

RECAP: At first glance, it seems like we’re getting line value in this game, but I’m not sure. The advance spread was New England -3, and yet the number moved three points because of what transpired last week. I’d normally love this sort of betting opportunity, but I feel as though that -3 spread was inflated by what happened in Week 8. Remember, the Patriots beat the Chargers despite being outgained, while Cleveland suffered a loss to Pittsburgh because Mayfield wasn’t 100 percent in his first game back from injury.

This current spread seems more correct. The Browns are the slightly better team in this matchup, but the Patriots are at home. I feel like either team winning by three are the two most-likely results of this contest, which makes this PK line difficult to diagnose. If we were still getting Cleveland +3 from a week ago, I’d consider wagering on the Browns, but I’m not really seeing a good betting situation in this game.

THURSDAY THOUGHTS: Nick Chubb may miss this game due to a minor illness, while Myles Garrett was absent from practice Wednesday and Thursday with a new foot injury. Sharp money is coming in on the Patriots as a result. Despite this, I’m going to include the Browns as one leg of a teaser. The Patriots don’t have an explosive offense, so it’ll be difficult for them to win by nine or more points.

SATURDAY NOTES: I spent a lot of time thinking about this game as well, and I’ve decided I’ll bet the Browns for a few units if the Patriots will be missing Damien Harris and Rhamondre Stevenson. Without those two (and James White), the Patriots won’t be able to threaten Cleveland with their running game at all. It’s so bad that they’re even talking about using Jonnu Smith in the backfield! Great defenses thrive versus one-dimensional offenses, and that’s the dynamic we’ll have here if the Patriots are down their top three running backs. Also, I realized this spread makes no sense. The Patriots were 3.5-point home dogs versus the Cowboys five weeks ago, yet they’re 2.5-point home favorites versus the Browns. How is that logical at all? The Cowboys and Browns are not six points apart; in fact, they’re separated by just three spots in my NFL Power Rankings. The Browns should be favored by 2.5. At any rate, this will be a three-unit selection if Harris and Stevenson are sidelined, and I’ll try to bet up to +3.

SATURDAY NOTES II: So much for that increased wager. Rhamondre Stevenson will play, as will Trent Brown, so Mac Jones won’t see as much pressure as I anticipated. I’m decreasing the unit count.

FINAL THOUGHTS: Stevenson is officially active, so I’m not as high on the Browns, who will have to worry about New England’s running game. The sharps have been on both sides of this game, so there’s nothing worth noting there either. If you want to bet Cleveland, pay up for the +3. The best place you can do this is at Bookmaker for -134 vig. BetUS and Bovada have -135 listed, so it’s not that much of a discount.

Atlanta Falcons (4-4) at Dallas Cowboys (6-2)
Line: Cowboys by 7. Total: 55.
Sunday, Nov. 14, 1:00 PM


The Matchup. Edge: None.

HATE MAIL: I will be posting hate mail here. We got just a bit this week:

Just heard from the infamous Frank Sebastiano, one of our better hate mailers:



I can’t fathom how much hatred someone must have in their heart to wish illness upon someone, even if it’s just a minor illness. I would never wish for anyone to be sick unless they happen to be a murderer or a rapist. Frank, on the other hand, is evil enough to hope that my wife, unborn child and I get sick. It’s likely that my wife and I have had it already and not known at all, but that’s another story.

This is from the WalterFootball YouTube page:



Without knowing Stevie Wonder’s handicapping record, which is quite excellent, why would anyone associate blindness with incompetence? Why does this CASONE guy hate blind people?

DALLAS OFFENSE: Dak Prescott was dreadful following his absence versus the Vikings. He had one of the worst passing performances of his career this past week against the Broncos, as his team was shut out prior to some last-minute garbage points.

I’ll be shocked if Prescott doesn’t rebound. He’s one of the best quarterbacks in the NFL, and he’ll be much healthier after another week of recovery time. He also has an extremely easy matchup. The Falcons have a woeful pass defense that can’t stop anyone. They even allowed Trevor Siemian to score into the mid 20s last week, and it would’ve been even worse had Siemian’s receivers not dropped so many passes!

The Falcons are at least decent at stopping the run, but they’re not very good when it comes to defending pass-catchers out of the backfield. I expect Ezekiel Elliott and Tony Pollard to excel in that regard.

ATLANTA OFFENSE: Matt Ryan put on a show last week, ripping through the Saints’ secondary with ease. This was surprising to some who watched the Saints dismantle Tom Brady’s offense the prior week, but it was clear that New Orleans didn’t bring its A+ effort following its huge upset victory.

I don’t expect Ryan to perform as well in this contest. He’ll hit some nice passes to Kyle Pitts because the Cowboys struggle against tight ends, but Dallas’ secondary should be able to limit Ryan’s other receivers. With Calvin Ridley MIA, Trevon Diggs and company don’t have anyone too talented to combat besides Pitts. Meanwhile, the Cowboys’ ferocious defensive front will put plenty of pressure on Ryan, who continues to receive poor blocking.

The Cowboys are weaker to the run than the pass, so that’s yet another reason they match up well against the Falcons. Atlanta’s ground attack is non-existent, so there’s no Melvin Gordon or Javonte Williams to trample the Cowboys this time.

RECAP: I love betting good teams coming off embarrassing defeats, and Dallas’ loss to Denver was certainly humiliating. It was so bad that the public is backing the Falcons in this game!

I don’t see why the Cowboys wouldn’t bounce back from their horrible loss. It was their worst performance of the year, so they’ll play much better this week. Meanwhile, it seems as though people have forgotten how bad the Falcons are. They’ve lost to the Panthers, Redskins and Eagles at home this year. They needed last-second field goals to beat the miserable Giants and Dolphins. Yet, now they’re a great bet because they defeated the Saints, who were flat off their loss to Tampa!

Speaking of the Buccaneers, that’s the only quality opponent the Falcons battled this year before taking on the distracted Saints. Excluding the Buccaneers and Saints, their opponents this year have been the Eagles, Giants, Redskins, Jets, Dolphins and Panthers. None of those teams have winning records.

This is a huge step up in competition for the Falcons, and unlike the Saints, the Cowboys won’t take them lightly. Dallas should win going away as a result. I have some concern about a Ryan back-door cover, but that’ll only limit my bet to three units.

THURSDAY THOUGHTS: Dak Prescott hasn’t ben on the injury report at all, which is a good sign that he’ll be 100 percent for this game. It’s going to be impossible for Atlanta’s inept defense to stop him, given that they’ve battled so many crappy quarterbacks this year.

SATURDAY NOTES: I was hoping Tyron Smith would play. He’s out, which will only hurt the Cowboys a little bit in this matchup. Dallas should still be good to blow out the overrated Falcons, but the Smith absence has me considering decreasing my unit count from three to two.

SATURDAY NOTES II: Dante Fowler has been activated from injured reserve, so he’s someone who can take advantage of Dallas’ missing left tackle. I like the Cowboys a bit less now.

FINAL THOUGHTS: The sharps have been betting the Falcons on Sunday morning, bringing this line down to -7.5. I still like the Cowboys a bit, but I wish Tyron Smith were active and Dante Fowler were sidelined. Neither is the case, but I still expect Dallas to have a huge game coming off an embarrassing loss. This will be a two-unit wager. I’m going to buy down to -7 -122 at Bookmaker.

Buffalo Bills (5-3) at New York Jets (1-7)
Line: Bills by 13. Total: 48.
Sunday, Nov. 14, 1:00 PM


The Matchup. Edge: Bills.

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BUFFALO OFFENSE: Josh Allen has not performed well the past two weeks, as teams have begun using a cover-2 shell against him, limiting his big plays. If Allen had more experience and/or a better running game, he could easily break his way out of his slump. However, he’s just in his fourth year, and the best back he has at his disposal is Devin Singletary, who will receive more of the workload this week in the wake of Zack Moss’ injury.

Allen, however, will be going against a miserable defense, so perhaps he and his talented receivers will just overwhelm the Jets. New York’s already-miserable secondary lost its best player, Marcus Maye, so there will be plenty of opportunities for Allen to hit deep shots to Stefon Diggs and Emmanuel Sanders, all while connecting with Cole Beasley underneath. Allen’s legs will also be a valuable asset.

NEW YORK OFFENSE: Mike White was knocked out of the Thursday night game following a touchdown pass on the second drive. This was a shame, as it would’ve given everyone a chance to see him play against a tough opponent following his brilliant performance against the Bengals.

White will be available to play in this game, which is the good news. The bad news is that he has to battle Sean McDermott’s tremendous defense, which will be angry and focused following its defeat versus Jacksonville. White was incredibly accurate against the Bengals, but it remains to be seen if he can replicate that performance against a great defensive-minded coach and one of the elite stop units in the league.

McDermott will undoubtedly confuse White with some complex schemes, which could force the young quarterback into some turnovers. Still, it’s better than the alternative option, which is Zach Wilson, who would undoubtedly implode in this matchup.

RECAP: I mentioned in the Cowboys-Falcons write-up that I like betting good teams coming off embarrassing losses. However, I would not quantify Buffalo’s defeat to Jacksonville as embarrassing. It was frustrating for sure, but losing by three is not humiliating.

That said, I like the Bills in this game. I feel like their offense will find a way to break out of its funk versus a poor, injury-ravaged defense, while McDermott will be able to frustrate White in just his second full game in the NFL.

I should note that this is for office pool purposes only. I don’t really see an incentive to bet this game at the moment because we’re getting no value with the Bills, plus White is a complete unknown.

THURSDAY THOUGHTS: Spencer Brown was limited in Wednesday’s practice and then upgraded to full Thursday. He’ll return to the lineup, which will be a huge boon to Buffalo’s struggling offensive line.

SATURDAY NOTES: I expect Buffalo’s offense to get back on track. The Bills will have Spencer Brown back from injury, while the Jets are down their primary safeties. Going against Mike White scares me a bit because he’s a major unknown, but White could also get frazzled by Buffalo’s No. 1 pressure defense. I’m willing to bet a couple of units on the Bills. This would be a greater wager if Zach Wilson were starting for the Jets.

FINAL THOUGHTS: There are no injury surprises. I still like the Bills to bounce back from their ugly loss. The best spread is -13 -109 at Bookmaker. There’s no sharp action to report.

New Orleans Saints (5-3) at Tennessee Titans (7-2)
Line: Titans by 3. Total: 43.
Sunday, Nov. 14, 1:00 PM


The Matchup. Edge: None.

If you missed it, I have an NFL Betting Props page. I’ll be adding to it as the season progresses!

Also, Confidence Pool Picks will return. They’ll be posted by Wednesday morning each week!

TENNESSEE TITANS: One of the most misleading results from Week 9 was the Rams-Titans affair. The Titans won by 12, but were outgained 347-194. They also averaged 1.2 fewer yards per play than Los Angeles. The only reason they prevailed by double digits was because Matthew Stafford, who was hobbled with a back injury, launched two interceptions that turned into 14 early Tennessee points.

The Titans barely did anything offensively, as evidenced by those 194 net yards. This wasn’t a surprise, as Derrick Henry’s absence allowed the Rams to focus more on stopping the pass. The Saints will be able to do the same thing, as Marshon Lattimore will be able to limit A.J. Brown, just like he did with Mike Evans a couple of weeks ago. Ryan Tannehill still has Julio Jones at his disposal, but Jones isn’t the same receiver he was in previous years.

Even if the Titans still had a healthy Henry available, there’s no guarantee that their offense would be explosive in this contest. That’s because the Saints are stellar versus the run. Adrian Peterson and the other mediocre Tennessee backs don’t stand a chance.

NEW ORLEANS OFFENSE: While the Titans don’t have their All-Pro back, the Saints possess theirs. Alvin Kamara is in a difficult ground matchup, as Tennessee’s defensive front is stout versus the run. It recently limited Jonathan Taylor to 70 yards on 16 carries. It’s safe to say that Kamara won’t find much room on the ground.

Kamara figures to be much more effective as a receiver out of the backfield. The Titans have some issues defending the middle of the field, as evidenced by Taylor’s receiving totals in the Indianapolis game (3-52), which doesn’t even include a potential 25-yard reception Carson Wentz missed in overtime when he decided to fire the ball into triple coverage instead. I’m still salty about that.

As for the passing game, Trevor Siemian led a great comeback last week, albeit against the Falcons. Still, the Saints have a stellar offensive line that should be able to shield Siemian Spirit Guide from Tennessee’s ferocious defensive front.

RECAP: Things can change so much in one week. Several days ago, everyone was declaring that the Titans were done, at least until the playoffs, because of Henry’s injury. The spread in the Rams game moved from +4.5 to +7.5. That’s how confident everyone was in Tennessee being a dead team.

Despite the Titans being outgained by a wide margin, they prevailed over an opponent with an injured quarterback, and now they’re a great team again. How wonderful. The spread has risen from the advance line of -2.5 to -3, and the public is betting Tennessee at a very high rate. Meanwhile, the Saints lost to the Falcons, so they’re an easy fade for casual bettors.

I think +3 is good value with the healthier team. The Saints also match up well with the Henry-less Titans, and there’s something to be said about siding with the underdog in a game that’s projected to have so few points.

I love New Orleans this week. The Saints should bounce back from their loss after taking the Falcons so lightly, while the Titans will regress to the mean after failing to generate 200 net yards of offense this past Sunday.

THURSDAY THOUGHTS: Alvin Kamara and Terron Armstead missed practice Wednesday and Thursday, which could be a huge deal. Despite this, there’s been no sharp money on New Orleans.

SATURDAY NOTES: I was hoping one of Kamara or Armstead would play. They’re both out, which is a major bummer. Armstead being sidelined means the Saints won’t have two starting offensive linemen versus Tennessee’s high-pressure defense. And with Kamara sidelined, Trevor Siemian will have to resort to dumping the ball off to Mark Ingram amid this pressure. I still like the Saints because of the motivational factor, but this spread hasn’t been appropriately adjusted for Siemian starting over Jameis Winston without some of his top offensive teammates. This line should be in the Tennessee -4 range, so we’re getting no value. I’m dropping my unit count as a result.

FINAL THOUGHTS: The sharps are on the Saints despite the injuries to Alvin Kamara and Terron Armstead. I like them a bit, but it’s frustrating that we’re not getting good line value with them. You can thank the sharps for that! The best line is +3 -115 at Bovada.

Tampa Bay Buccaneers (6-2) at Washington Redskins (2-6)
Line: Buccaneers by 10. Total: 50.5.
Sunday, Nov. 14, 1:00 PM


The Matchup. Edge: None.

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TAMPA BAY OFFENSE: The Buccaneers marched through the playoffs nearly a year ago from the No. 5 seed. Excluding the Packers, the team that gave them the toughest battle happened to be the Redskins, who lost by just eight points. Their stellar defense limited Tom Brady to just 22-of-40 passing.

Brady is unlikely to approach a completion percentage of 50 again in the rematch. Washington’s defense is the difference, as the team is not nearly as potent on this side of the ball this year. Chase Young, while still good, hasn’t been the dominant force we saw at the end of his rookie campaign. The secondary and linebacking corps, meanwhile, are horrendous. They can’t cover anyone.

With plenty of weapons at his disposal – Rob Gronkowski is expected to return – Brady will slice through the Redskins’ defense with ease. Antonio Brown won’t be available, but Mike Evans, Chris Godwin, Gronkowski and Leonard Fournette will be more than enough.

WASHINGTON OFFENSE: I would have liked the Redskins’ chances to score against the Buccaneers several weeks ago. They moved the ball extremely well against the Packers, though they stalled on so many occasions in field goal range. They had five scoreless drives that concluded at the Green Bay 24, 23, 1, 3 and 12.

The Redskins, however, have some dire offensive line issues. They were down two starters, Brandon Scherff and Sam Cosmi, as well as top backup tackle Cornelius Lucas before losing center Chase Roullier to a season-ending injury against the Broncos. It remains to be seen if the Redskins will get any of their blockers back from injury. If they’re still missing two or more starters up front, it’ll be very challenging for them to score on Tampa Bay.

Making matters worse, the Redskins will get nothing out of their running game. Tampa has an elite ground defense, so Antonio Gibson won’t do anything. Terry McLaurin and Logan Thomas will have some nice gains, but Washington’s offense will be inconsistent.

RECAP: Brady is coming off a loss, so I expect him to be focused despite battling a poor opponent. I did not expect to refer to the Redskins as a poor opponent at the beginning of the year, but that’s exactly what they are. They’ve battled three teams I have in the top 10 of my NFL Power Rankings: the Bills, Chiefs and Packers. They’ve lost those games by 22, 18 and 14.

The Redskins dealt with offensive line injuries versus the latter two opponents, so perhaps they’ll play better if they get some of their blockers back from injury. If they don’t, however, I’ll prepared to bet several units on the Buccaneers. The injury report will be important, as usual.

THURSDAY THOUGHTS: Sam Cosmi and Brandon Scherff returned to practice this week. With the Redskins’ offensive line suddenly healthier, I may not bet this game. I’ve dropped my projected unit count.

SATURDAY NOTES: Scherff doesn’t have an injury designation right now, while Cosmi is questionable after being limited all week. Unless Cosmi is a surprise inactive, I have no desire to bet this game.

FINAL THOUGHTS: Cosmi is active, so I won’t have a bet on this game. If you want to wager on the Buccaneers, you can get -10 +100 at BetUS. There’s a bit of sharp action on the Redskins.

Detroit Lions (0-8) at Pittsburgh Steelers (5-3)
Line: Steelers by 5.5. Total: 40.5.
Sunday, Nov. 14, 1:00 PM


The Matchup. Edge: Steelers.

If you’ve followed this site for a while, you might remember that I like to respond to my spam mails. It all started numerous years ago, when a man named Jon Wire from the “United Bank of Africoan” promised me an ATM card of some sort, so I responded as a man named Mister Compassion Chuck Norris, who was raised by wolves. The following season, I received e-mails from Richard Held and Loon Bruce, who told me I won a Facebook Award, which comes with a “lump sum pay out of (750,000.00 GBP).” Pretending to be Matthew Millen Kim, I sent out my application and fake money.

I’ve been messing around with spammers ever since, pretending to be Harvey Weinstein, Joe Biden, Ramsay Bolton and Walter White. I have plenty of Spam Mails this year, so check them out if you want to see me screw with spammers. I’ll have new ones every week this year!

PITTSBURGH OFFENSE: It was odd to see the Steelers score 29 points Monday night. That was their season-high total for the year, though it should be noted that they had some help from an officiating crew led by Tim Donaghy Corrente, I mean Tony Corrente. I don’t know why I got his first name confused.

This is an easy matchup for the Steelers, or at least it should be. The Lions have a miserable defense with holes everywhere. Their secondary won’t be able to cover Pittsburgh’s talented receivers, while the linebackers and defensive linemen will have issues bringing down Najee Harris. If Jordan Howard and Boston Scott could have big gains against the Lions prior to the bye, Harris should be even better.

The one hope Detroit has is if it can put tons of pressure on Ben Roethlisberger. It’s no secret that the Steelers struggle to block, and the lone strength on the Lions’ defense is the edge rush with Trey Flowers.

DETROIT OFFENSE: The Steelers have built their record with some great defensive efforts. They did a great job of limiting Justin Fields in the first half, but Fields exploded following intermission and nearly generated a comeback victory. Fields was incredible down the stretch, so it’s a shame that his efforts were thwarted by crooked officiating.

I don’t think Jared Goff is going to maintain Fields’ level of success. Goff doesn’t have Fields’ mobility to escape danger, and he also doesn’t possess the same talent as Chicago does in its receiving corps. T.J. Hockenson and D’Andre Swift are great weapons, but the wideouts themselves are terrible. This is significant because the weak point of Pittsburgh’s defense is the cornerback play.

Speaking of Swift, it’ll be difficult for him to find running room. The Steelers are stellar versus the run, so Swift will have to do his damage as a receiver out of the backfield. That said, it’ll help Swift and the rest of the offense that Taylor Decker will be back on the field following an extended absence.

RECAP: This matchup looked bleak for the Bears on Monday night. They were touchdown underdogs, and the sharps were betting Pittsburgh. I liked the other side because I didn’t trust the Steelers to cover such a high spread as a result of their offense being so lackluster. They scored 29, but as mentioned, they got help from the officials and the Bears via some turnovers.

The Lions are worse than the Bears, but this spread is nine. That’s insanely high, given that Pittsburgh hasn’t won by more than eight points all year! They beat Chicago by two and the Geno Smith-led Seahawks by three. Who are they to lay nine points against anyone, especially the Lions?

Furthermore, the Steelers are coming off an emotional win and will be playing on a short week. The Lions, conversely, were throttled prior to the bye. They’re a team that has been on-off-on-off this year as far as effort is concerned. They were flat versus the Eagles, so I’d expect another “Super Bowl” type of effort from them in this game. I doubt we’re going to see the same intensity from the Steelers, who have to battle the Chargers next week.

I like the Lions, if you couldn’t tell. This spread is too high for an offensively deficient team to cover, and the Lions figure to be bringing greater effort. I wouldn’t go crazy with betting Detroit because it could easily be dreadful again, as rookie coaches tend not to do well off a bye, but I might be betting a couple of units on this game.

THURSDAY THOUGHTS: There’s been a bit of sharp action on the Lions thus far, but nothing substantial. The Lions got Taylor Decker back to a full practice, so their offensive line will be much better this week.

SATURDAY NOTES: I’m not going to bet this game after all. An e-mailer brought something to my attention, which is that first-year NFL head coaches have been terrible following bye weeks. No first-year head coach has covered following a bye this year. Also, it’s going to be cold and rainy in Pittsburgh this Sunday, which doesn’t bode well for Jared Goff, who has always played in sunny and indoor environments. I still wouldn’t bet Pittsburgh because this line is too high, but the Lions look just as unappealing now.

SATURDAY NOTES II: Ben Roethlisberger has been ruled out with an illness. Let’s hope he can survive and return to the field this year. In the meantime, Mason Rudolph will start. This spread dropped just two points, which might actually be too much because I’m not sure there’s a difference between the two quarterbacks at this stage of Roethlisberger’s career. I like the Steelers a lot more with Rudolph under center. The players will try harder with a backup quarterback, and the spread has been brought down to less than a touchdown. Meanwhile, the problems for the Lions linger. They have a first-year coach off a bye, and Jared Goff will struggle in the cold and rainy conditions versus an elite defense. I’ll be betting three units on the Steelers.

FINAL THOUGHTS: There’s sharp action bringing down this spread toward Detroit, but I love the Steelers with their backup quarterback, especially now that there are -5.5s available. You can get -5.5 -117 at Bookmaker, which is worth it because six has become such a prominent key number.