NFL Picks Against the Spread: Week 5, 2021

Los Angeles Rams (3-1) at Seattle Seahawks (2-2)
Line: Rams by 2.5. Total: 54.
Thursday, Oct. 7, 8:20 PM


The Matchup. Edge: None.

Week 4 Analysis: We’re finally coming off a positive week. It was a solid one that would’ve been great had the Steelers covered. Of the wrong picks, that was the biggest disappointment. I’ll dive into all plays of three-plus units once again:

Jets, 4 units: This was a nice win. The Titans shouldn’t have been such large road favorite with so many injuries.

Dolphins, 4 units: This pick was wrong because I misread the Dolphins. I thought they were a good team. They most certainly are not.

Giants, 5 units: The Saints, like the Titans, were favored too much despite being so injured. The Giants won outright, which is a shame because I had a Jaguars-Giants moneyline parlay that would’ve hit had Jacksonville hung on to its two-touchdown halftime lead.

Chiefs, 5 units: The Chiefs were as explosive offensively as I thought they’d be coming off two losses. Their defense was a disappointment though.

Seahawks, 3 units: The Seahawks overcame their offensive line woes to win this game. Like Patrick Mahomes, Russell Wilson rebounded off two consecutive losses.

Steelers, 4 units: Ugh. I didn’t think the Packers deserved to be big favorites because of their offensive line injuries. The Steelers were just so pathetic offensively that they couldn’t get the back-door cover.

Let’s hope this success continues in Week 5!

A couple of things: First, I’m going to remind you every week that my wife is due around Christmas, so there will be a week in December when my picks and/or recaps could be released late. Second, I just published a book called How the 2020 MVP Was Stolen:



This book is not completely about football; it’s more political than anything, so some of you will hate it. In fact, it wouldn’t surprise me if Amazon bans it at some point, so get it while you can. Nevertheless, if you want to support the site, please consider ordering a copy!

LOS ANGELES OFFENSE: Matthew Stafford was one of the two favorites for MVP heading into Week 4. He was brilliant in his first three starts, but that was not the case against the Cardinals. Stafford missed a number of throws he would’ve routinely hit had he been playing like he did versus the Bears, Colts or Buccaneers. This resulted in Arizona’s blowout victory.

I get the feeling that Stafford wasn’t fully focused on the Cardinals because he was coming off the victory versus Tampa and preparing for this contest, given that it was taking place four days later. Either way, Stafford figures to perform much better in this contest because the matchup is so easy. The Seahawks have no pass rush and a miserable secondary. It’ll be shocking if Stafford doesn’t rebound from his ugly loss.

The only way Stafford won’t post amazing numbers is if the Rams simply run all over the Seahawks. This can happen because Seattle’s ground defense is miserable, so Darrell Henderson figures to have a strong night.

SEATTLE OFFENSE: It appeared as though the Seahawks fixed their offensive line issues early in the season. Russell Wilson enjoyed a brilliant performance against the Colts, torching their secondary with ease. Things have changed recently, however, and it has everything to do with the injuries Seattle has sustained to its blocking unit.

The Seahawks have been missing multiple offensive linemen the past couple of weeks, as Ethan Pocic and Brandon Shell have been sidelined. If both are out once again, that will be a huge advantage to the Rams’ defensive front. The Los Angeles defense has often gotten the better of Wilson, and that is likely to happen again, especially with D.K. Metcalf being a bit banged up.

Speaking of banged-up Seahawks, Chris Carson isn’t 100 percent either. The Rams figure to clamp down on Carson, so a swarmed Wilson won’t be able to rely on his rushing attack.

RECAP: The Rams have dominated this rivalry, including their victory in the playoffs in which a hobbled Jared Goff won in Seattle. Stafford, looking to redeem himself from last week’s performance, is obviously better than Goff, even when not hobbled.

I see no reason why this domination shouldn’t continue. I know the Rams finally faltered versus the Cardinals, but they were distracted. They were preparing for this game, so I expect them to expose the Seahawks and their many flaws.

I plan on betting two or three units on the Rams as long as the Seahawks are once again missing multiple offensive linemen.

Our Week 5 NFL Picks will be posted all day Tuesday. Follow @walterfootball for updates.

THURSDAY THOUGHTS: Brandon Shell will play, which is a huge boon for the Seahawks. Their offensive line will be healthy for the first time since the opening half of Week 2, which is the last time Seattle’s offense was playing well. I initially planned on betting a few units on the Rams, but my wager won’t be as high because of this injury news.

FINAL THOUGHTS: Brandon Shell is active, which is a bummer because it makes the Rams pick less exciting. I still like the Rams, but for only one unit. The best place to get -2.5 is at Bookmaker for -114 juice. If you like the Seahawks, Bovada is offering +3 -115. The sharps haven’t really touched this game.

New York Jets (1-3) vs. Atlanta Falcons (1-3)
Line: Falcons by 3. Total: 45.
Sunday, Oct. 10, 9:30 AM
at London


The Matchup. Edge: Falcons.

My overrated-underrated feature was posted in this spot the past couple of years. I thought it would be better if there was less clutter on this page, so I set up a new NFL Overrated and Underrated Teams page that will be updated every Monday. I have overrated and underrated teams listed there, and some may shock you!

NEW YORK OFFENSE: It’s amazing what an easy matchup can do for a struggling rookie quarterback. Zach Wilson was throwing interceptions at an alarming rate to start the season. However, he dealt with a highly ranked Panthers defense in Week 1, followed by matchups against two of the smartest defensive coaches in the NFL, Bill Belichick and Vic Fangio. It’s no wonder he performed so poorly. It’s also no wonder that he thrived versus the Titans’ horrible defense.

Like Tennessee, Atlanta has a miserable secondary that can’t cover anyone. That would explain why Taylor Heinicke looked like the second coming of Joe Montana in the matchup versus the Falcons last week. Heinicke, seeing no pressure, was able to torch the Falcons, which is what Wilson should be able to do in London.

Wilson doesn’t have the running game Heinicke possesses, but that shouldn’t be an issue. There are just too many holes in the secondary for Wilson and his talented receiving corps to exploit.

ATLANTA OFFENSE: Speaking of exploiting weak secondaries, Matt Ryan figures to do the same in this matchup. Ryan Tannehill couldn’t quite do that last week because he was missing Julio Jones and A.J. Brown, but Ryan has his primary weapons ready to roll against the Jets’ injured secondary.

Unlike the Falcons, however, the Jets have the personnel to get to the quarterback because of their talented defensive line. Ryan is not protected well, so some drives will be disrupted by this pressure.

It’ll also help the Jets that they don’t have to worry about Atlanta’s rushing attack either. The Falcons can’t run effectively, as their most productive player has been gadget return specialist Cordarrelle Patterson. I can’t see Patterson scoring multiple touchdowns again, as there is bound to be some serious regression.

RECAP: This spread is way too high. How on Earth are the Falcons considered three points better than the Jets? That’s absurd because both of these teams are horrible. It’s also frustrating because I wanted to bet on Atlanta.

The Jets have a major liability defensively with their two starting safeties sidelined. Marcus Maye and Lamarcus Joyner being out didn’t matter against the Titans’ injury-ravaged receiving corps, but it will against Calvin Ridley and Kyle Pitts. This is something Ryan can seriously expose.

Furthermore, the Jets were celebrating last week’s victory as if they won the Super Bowl. Robert Saleh took a Gatorade bath, and everything. I don’t see the Jets being completely focused for that reason. The public thinks they will be – there’s a ton of action on the Jets – but I have my doubts.

I’d like the Falcons at -1, but at -3, I just can’t pull the trigger on a big wager. Perhaps we’ll see a better number later in the week, but -3 isn’t great because Atlanta winning by three is the most likely result of this game.

THURSDAY THOUGHTS: The sharps bet the Jets at +3.5, but not +3. I don’t anticipate betting this game heavily, and nothing on the injury report has changed that.

SATURDAY NOTES: I’m changing my pick. My initial reason for liking the Falcons was that their talented recievers would be able to expose a Jets secondary missing its top three safeties. However, both Calvin Ridley and Russell Gage are out, so that’s moot. Furthermore, the Falcons will be missing two starters in their secondary (Isaiah Oliver, Erik Harris), so they’re even worse than people think they are. Despite this, they’re favored by a field goal in a neutral-site game. This spread doesn’t make much sense. I don’t want to back the Jets heavily because they’re coming off an emotional win, but I think this is worth a small wager.

FINAL THOUGHTS: The NFL really needs to stop it with these dreadful 9:30 a.m. games. I can’t imagine waking up at 6 a.m. on the West Coast to adjust my fantasy lineup. It’s going to drive fans away from the league. At any rate, I’m sticking with the Jets for one unit. The best line is Jets +3 -118 at Bookmaker. The sharps are on the Jets.

Miami Dolphins (1-3) at Tampa Bay Buccaneers (3-1)
Line: Buccaneers by 11. Total: 48.
Sunday, Oct. 10, 1:00 PM


The Matchup. Edge: Dolphins.

VEGAS UPDATE: I’ll be posting how the Vegas sportsbooks have done the previous week in this spot. The highest-bet sides were 34-42 in 2020 and 12-6 so far this year.

Here are the teams getting the most bets last week:

Buccaneers -6

Titans -7.5

Chiefs -6

Bengals -7.5

Seahawks +2.5

Packers -7

Lions +3

The teams were 3-4, but the sportsbooks won big because the Buccaneers failed to cover. That New England-Tampa contest had so much betting action that it was practically two games!

Here are the teams getting the most bets this week:

Packers -3.5

Rams -1.5

Titans -4

Patriots -9

Cardinals -5.5

Four road favorites, wow, I’m so shocked!

TAMPA BAY OFFENSE: Tom Brady just can’t escape his former defensive coaches. A week after matching wits with Bill Belichick, Brady now has to battle Brian Flores, the former defensive coordinator of the Patriots. Bill Belichick threw the kitchen sink at Brady, and Flores should be able to do the same thing.

Granted, the Dolphins don’t have the defensive personnel the Patriots currently possess, but they have some talented defensive backs on their roster that could limit Brady’s receivers. Remember, Brady won’t have Rob Gronkowski at his disposal, so that’s one player Miami won’t have to worry about.

There is a big weakness in the Miami defense, however, and that’s the team’s inability to stop the run. They made Peyton Barber look like Jim Brown a couple of weeks ago. The Buccaneers aren’t known for their rushing attack, but remember that Leonard Fournette had an amazing playoff run. He also thrived Sunday night, so he should have an even stronger performance in this matchup.

MIAMI OFFENSE: Jaylen Waddle has looked good this year, but I imagine the Dolphins are regretting passing on Penei Sewell because their offensive line has been horrific. Jacoby Brissett had no blocking against the Colts. When he wasn’t running for his life, he was skipping horrible passes into the ground.

Brissett, however, will have a chance to redeem himself in this matchup. The Buccaneers, for whatever reason, haven’t generated nearly as much pressure as they did last year. If Brissett gets some time in the pocket, he and his receivers will have a chance to expose Tampa Bay’s injury-ravaged secondary, which was missing its top three cornerbacks against the Patriots when Carlton Davis got hurt. The Buccaneers signed Richard Sherman, but he looked like a shell of his former self when Mac Jones was constantly picking on him.

RECAP: I’m betting on the Dolphins this week as long as the Buccaneers continue to miss multiple cornerbacks. I like the matchup the Dolphins’ receivers have against them.

Two other things to consider: First, the Buccaneers have a game on Thursday night. Given that they’re coming off a win in the most-hyped regular-season game ever, they could be unfocused, much like the Rams were versus the Cardinals last week. Second, the Buccaneers’ spread could be too inflated. Think about what they’ve done this year. They’ve barely beaten the Cowboys and Patriots. They suffered a blowout loss versus the Rams. And their one cover thus far was against the miserable Falcons, who kept that game close until Matt Ryan threw two pick-sixes.

I don’t think the Buccaneers deserve to be favored by double digits against anyone except the Texans at this point. Their secondary is just so bad that they can’t stop the pass at all, and at the very worst, Brissett will have a great opportunity for a back-door cover.

THURSDAY THOUGHTS: There’s more public action coming in on the Buccaneers, and yet this line hasn’t budged. The sharps haven’t touched this game yet.

SATURDAY NOTES: I still plan on betting four units on the Dolphins. Jamel Dean may play, but he might not be 100 percent. Even still, the Buccaneers will be down two of their top three cornerbacks, as well as a starting safety (Antoine Winfield). This spread is way too high for such an injury-ravaged team, and Miami will have a great chance at a back-door cover if it needs it.

FINAL THOUGHTS: The sharps jumped on the Buccaneers on Sunday morning because DeVante Parker was ruled out. I don’t think this is a huge deal because Miami still has Jaylen Waddle and Mike Gesicki, but it’s not ideal. Still, I love the Dolphins with this many points. The best line is +11 -103 at Bookmaker.

Philadelphia Eagles (1-3) at Carolina Panthers (3-1)
Line: Panthers by 2.5. Total: 46.5.
Sunday, Oct. 10, 1:00 PM


The Matchup. Edge: Panthers.

HATE MAIL: I will be posting hate mail here. We got a bit this week:



This is your weekly virus hate mail from someone who doesn’t understand that the media has fooled everyone in this pandemic.

Social media, too. This isn’t really hate mail, but a hate reaction to my reply:



Seriously, who is against free speech? Is Chairman Xi lurking in the WalterFootball.com comment section?

We give NFL player comparisons to prospects on this site. I’ve been given a comparison, too:



The Alex Jones of the NFL sounds good to me, except I don’t yell at all. Still, I’ll take it as a great compliment because pretty much everything Jones has said has come true.

PHILADELPHIA OFFENSE: It’s truly amazing that the Eagles scored 30 points last week, considering they were missing four starting offensive linemen. Jalen Hurts made some poor throws, but he put together a great game for the most part, at least until he reached the red zone.

I imagine the depleted offensive line will matter much more in this contest. The Chiefs, missing Frank Clark, didn’t have anyone to put pressure on Hurts outside of Chris Jones. The Panthers, conversely, have plenty of talented pass rushers that could force Hurts into some mistakes. Hurts will do some damage as a scrambler, of course, but I’ll be surprised if he’s not guilty of at least one turnover.

Something that’ll help the Panthers is that they won’t have to worry about the running game at all, which was a problem for them last week. For whatever reason, the Eagles’ coaching staff doesn’t believe in rushing with Miles Sanders. Talented defenses can make quick work of one-dimensional offenses.

CAROLINA OFFENSE: The Eagles’ defense was brilliant during the first six quarters of the season. They completely shut down the Falcons in the opener, then blanked the 49ers until the final drive of the opening half. Ever since, however, Philadelphia hasn’t been able to stop anyone. The Chiefs scored a touchdown on all but one possession last week.

The reason for this sudden defensive ineptitude is the loss of Brandon Graham. The Eagles haven’t been able to stop the run or generate a pass rush without one of their top players, and that will continue in this contest. The Panthers obviously aren’t the Chiefs, but they have plenty of talent on this side of the ball. D.J. Moore and Robby Anderson could both have big games, while Sam Darnold will continue to do his best Lamar Jackson impression.

Christian McCaffrey almost certainly won’t play, but the Panthers should still have success rushing the ball. Rookie Chuba Hubbard has looked good thus far, so he’ll have a decent game against the Graham-less Eagles defense.

RECAP: The Eagles will be down anywhere between two and four offensive linemen this week, which makes the Panthers the play. Once again, I love Carolina’s pass rush versus the Eagles’ injury-ravaged offensive line.

The sharps, apparently, disagree. It’s still early in the week, but they’ve taken a stand, betting the Eagles heavily at +4. This line is now +3.5, and it could drop to +3 later in the week. Carolina -3 would obviously be way more appealing than -3.5, so the line I get will decide the unit count.

THURSDAY THOUGHTS: Jordan Mailata returned to a limited practice, but Lane Johnson missed practice Wednesday with something personal again. It’s unclear if Johnson will return this week, but it doesn’t look good so far. Speaking of not looking good, there’s an obscene amount of sharp action on the Eagles.

SATURDAY NOTES: I mentioned Thursday that the sharps were on the Eagles. It’s easy to see why now. Lane Johnson is out again, but Jordan Mailata will return. With Andre Dillard playing well, the Eagles have a quality pair of tackles ready for Carolina’s edge rush. Guard is still a big problem, but the offensive line isn’t a complete mess. Meanwhile, the Panthers will be missing Shaq Thompson, which is a huge hole in their defense. I’m sticking with the Panthers, but I won’t be betting this game.

FINAL THOUGHTS: Christian McCaffrey is out, and Jordan Mailata will be back, as expected. I still have no opinion on this game, but the sharps love the Eagles, even at +3. The Panthers are -2.5 -115 at DraftKings.

New Orleans Saints (2-2) at Washington Redskins (2-2)
Line: Saints by 3. Total: 43.5.
Sunday, Oct. 10, 1:00 PM


The Matchup. Edge: Redskins.

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NEW ORLEANS OFFENSE: I imagine many were surprised that the Saints scored just 21 points against the Giants last week. This was a predictable result, however, because they were missing multiple offensive linemen, including Pro Bowl left tackle Terron Armstead. The Giants’ underrated defense was able to dominate the trenches and prevent the Saints from sustaining consistent drives.

The Saints’ offensive success in this game will be determined by the availability of Armstead and Erik McCoy. If one of them returns to the field, the Saints will have a good chance of generating plenty of points. The Redskins’ defense has been an enormous disappointment this year, as Chase Young hasn’t played as well as he did during his rookie campaign, while the secondary has been torched relentlessly by every quarterback they’ve faced, including Daniel Jones. However, if Jameis Winston has no pass protection, that could just lead to turnovers.

One thing the Redskins’ defensive has done well this year is stop the run (not including scrambling quarterbacks). That at least gives them some hope in this matchup, even if Armstead and/or McCoy play because the Saints are so reliant on rushing the ball with Alvin Kamara and touchdown vulture Taysom Hill.

WASHINGTON OFFENSE: Taylor Heinicke did quite the 180 in the past couple of weeks. He was dreadful against the Bills, giving his team no chance to win. He was much better this past week, torching the Falcons, especially at the end when he put together a game-winning drive. Think there’ a big difference between the Buffalo and Atlanta defenses?

Heinicke should be somewhere in between in this matchup, as the Saints have a much better defense than the Falcons, but not quite the stop unit the Bills possess. They don’t have a great pass rush overall, and they have some holes in their secondary. It hurts that Heinicke won’t have Logan Thomas, but perhaps Curtis Samuel will play more snaps this week.

Antonio Gibson should thrive again as well. We just saw Saquon Barkley have a big game as both a runner and a receiver against the Saints, so Gibson could duplicate what the New York back accomplished last week.

RECAP: My projected line for this game is Redskins -1, but it doesn’t surprise me that the Saints are favored. Despite their loss to the Giants, they’re still overhyped a bit because of their misleading wins over the Packers and Patriots. New Orleans was outgained in total yardage heading into Week 4.

The Saints will be better if they get an offensive lineman back from injury, but if they don’t, they’ll struggle once again. I’m going to side the Redskins regardless, but I’ll only be betting them if New Orleans is down multiple blockers once again. Check back later in the week once the injury reports are available, or follow me @walterfootball for updates.

THURSDAY THOUGHTS: No Terron Armstead or Erik McCoy in practice yet, which is obviously bad news for the Saints.

SATURDAY NOTES: As suspected, the Saints will be down two offensive linemen. This greatly benefits the Redskins, whose pass rush will come alive and dominate one of these days. I’m going to bet three units on the Redskins, and I’ll be searching for a viable +3 over the next 24 hours.

FINAL THOUGHTS: No surprise injury news, so I still like the Redskins as a three-unit wager versus the Saints, who should continue to have blocking woes. I was looking for a viable +3, and I haven’t really found one. The best vig is -125 at DraftKings. The sharps haven’t really touched this game.

Tennessee Titans (2-2) at Jacksonville Jaguars (0-4)
Line: Titans by 4.5. Total: 48.5.
Sunday, Oct. 10, 1:00 PM


The Matchup. Edge: None.

If you missed it, I have an NFL Betting Props page. I’ll be adding to it as the season progresses!

Also, Confidence Pool Picks will return. They’ll be posted by Wednesday morning each week!

TENNESSEE OFFENSE: Losing to the Jets was not a good look, but the Titans’ offense was limited with A.J. Brown and Julio Jones sidelined. Ryan Tannehill threw some passes to his backup receivers that just didn’t connect. Some of those likely would’ve been complete had Brown or Jones been on the receiving end. At the very worst, the Titans would’ve had some more success in the red zone rather than settling for field goals early in the game.

This is another easy matchup for the Titans, but only if they have Brown and/or Jones available. The Jaguars have a miserable secondary that hasn’t been able to stop anyone this year, including Tyrod Taylor in the opening-week blowout loss. Their lacking pass rush won’t bother Tannehill either. However, if Brown and Jones are out, the Jaguars will at least have a chance of stopping the passing game.

Conversely, the Jaguars have no shot versus Derrick Henry. Their run defense had issues versus Mark Ingram in the opener, so how can it possibly deal with Henry?

JACKSONVILLE OFFENSE: Even if Brown and Jones play, the Jaguars will have a chance to win this game because Tennessee’s defense is terrible. The only thing I need to point out to back up that statement is that the Titans couldn’t stop a previously interception-prone Zach Wilson last week.

Like Wilson, Trevor Lawrence endured a tough start to his rookie campaign before turning things around in Week 4. Lawrence played well against the Bengals, even after losing his top receiver, D.J. Chark, to injury. Laviska Shenault finally had a breakout game, so Jacksonville’s passing attack should thrive in this easy matchup even without Chark.

Running the ball, conversely, won’t be as easy. The Titans have been stout versus the run this season, so James Robinson won’t have as much success as he’s enjoyed the past couple of weeks.

RECAP: The status of Brown and Jones will obviously impact my decision regarding this game. I’ll be on the Titans if one of them returns. If both are out, I’ll side with the Jaguars.

Having said that, I’ll still find it difficult to bet on Jacksonville because of the Urban Meyer distraction. I think these sort of stories are often overhyped by the media, but Meyer is a truly inept NFL coach who may have lost his team. It’s not like the Jaguars have experienced players in the locker room who can rally the troops either. It seems like a terrible situation that could impact the result of this game.

THURSDAY THOUGHTS: This spread moved in Tennessee’s favor on Wednesday, perhaps because of the news that A.J. Brown returned to a limited practice. I will definitely be on Tennessee if Brown plays.

SATURDAY NOTES: The Titans will be much healthier this week. Julio Jones and Jayon Brown will be sidelined, but the Titans will be getting back A.J. Brown, Bud Dupree and Caleb Farley. I’ll be on Tennessee, but I don’t want to bet this game because of the Urban Meyer weirdness. The Jaguars could either fold or use it as a rallying point. I wouldn’t base my selection on that situation.

FINAL THOUGHTS: The Titans will be down Bud Dupree, but I’m still going to be on Tennessee because of the Meyer situation. That said, this could really go either way. For that reason, I’m not surprised that the sharps aren’t touching this game. If you want to bet the Titans, you can get -4.5 -105 at Bookmaker and DraftKings.

Detroit Lions (0-4) at Minnesota Vikings (1-3)
Line: Vikings by 10. Total: 49.5.
Sunday, Oct. 10, 1:00 PM


The Matchup. Edge: Vikings.

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MINNESOTA OFFENSE: I wrote last week that Kirk Cousins would’ve been in MVP discussion had his team not suffered some terrible luck at the end of the Cincinnati and Arizona games. The Vikings were 1-2 instead of a very possible 3-0, so Cousins, despite his great play, wasn’t discussed amongst the Matthew Staffords and Kyler Murrays.

If Cousins had an MVP campaign, it would’ve come screeching to a halt last week, as the Vikings posted just seven points against the Browns. Cousins had a major issue dealing with Cleveland’s relentless pressure. That obviously won’t be an issue in this contest. The Lions just lost edge rusher Romeo Okwara or the year, so if Trey Flowers is out again – he has missed the past two games – Cousins will have a clean pocket for most of the afternoon. Justin Jefferson and Adam Thielen won’t face much resistance from Detroit’s terrible secondary.

Cousins may not even have to do much in this game because Dalvin Cook will pick up big chunks of yardage with ease. Cook will be healthier after another week of recovery, and the Lions have a miserable run defense.

DETROIT OFFENSE: The Lions couldn’t get out of their own way last week. They had three trips into the red zone during the opening half, but came up with no points because of either turnovers or fourth-down failures. They finally scored some touchdowns in the second half, but it was too little, too late.

Things will be more difficult for the Lions this week. This matchup would be an easy one under normal circumstances, but the team lost Pro Bowl center Frank Ragnow to injury, meaning it’ll be down its top two offensive linemen, as Taylor Decker is still sidelined. The Vikings’ defense has struggled this year, but they’ve been able to generate a strong pass rush. They’ll get plenty of pressure on Jared Goff.

The Lions will have some success with D’Andre Swift, Jamaal Williams and T.J. Hockenson, but I can’t see them generating consistent offensive success with their blocking woes.

RECAP: I love attacking teams that have multiple injuries at the same position, and the Lions have two such issues if Flowers is out again. In that case, they won’t have their two best edge rushers to help stop Cousins, and they won’t have their top offensive linemen to help shield Goff.

I’m going to bet the Vikings, but this won’t be a huge wager. I’m not a fan of laying this many points with a team with some major flaws like the Vikings (my calculated spread, disregarding the injuries, is -5.5.) Plus, the Lions have shown that they’re always going to be in play for a back-door cover.

THURSDAY THOUGHTS: The sharps often bet the underdog, but that’s not the case here, as they’re on Minnesota in this game. Perhaps that has to do with Penei Sewell likely missing this game in addition to the Lions’ two best offensive linemen. I may increase my unit count if that’s the case.

SATURDAY NOTES: The sharps continued to bet the Vikings, pushing the line up to -10. The Lions may get Trey Flowers back – he was limited all week – but Penei Sewell barely practiced, so Detroit could be missing its three best offensive lineup, plus its top backup blocker. This is the easiest game of the year for the Vikings – they crushed the Seahaws and lost close games to the Bengals, Cardinals and Browns, who are a combined 10-2 – while the Lions won’t have a functional offensive line. I’m betting four units on Minnesota.

FINAL THOUGHTS: Dalvin Cook is sidelined, but that doesn’t matter at all for me because Alexander Mattison is a great replacement. The bigger injury news is that Penei Sewell, Trey Flowers and T.J. Hockenson are all active for the Lions. That sucks to hear, and it’s going to cause me to drop my unit count from four to three. I obviously like the Vikings a lot, but I thought Sewell would be sidelined. The best spread is -10 -103 at Bookmaker. And as mentioned earlier, the sharps bet on the Vikings earlier in the week (but not at -10).

Denver Broncos (3-1) at Pittsburgh Steelers (1-3)
Line: Broncos by 1.5. Total: 39.
Sunday, Oct. 10, 1:00 PM


The Matchup. Edge: TBA.

If you’ve followed this site for a while, you might remember that I like to respond to my spam mails. It all started numerous years ago, when a man named Jon Wire from the “United Bank of Africoan” promised me an ATM card of some sort, so I responded as a man named Mister Compassion Chuck Norris, who was raised by wolves. The following season, I received e-mails from Richard Held and Loon Bruce, who told me I won a Facebook Award, which comes with a “lump sum pay out of (750,000.00 GBP).” Pretending to be Matthew Millen Kim, I sent out my application and fake money.

I’ve been messing around with spammers ever since, pretending to be Harvey Weinstein, Joe Biden, Ramsay Bolton and Walter White. I have plenty of Spam Mails this year, so check them out if you want to see me screw with spammers. I’ll have new ones every week this year!

DENVER OFFENSE: I’m old enough to remember when sportsbooks wouldn’t post a spread if there was uncertainty regarding the starting quarterback on a team. I recall a game from 2003 when a Texans-Jaguars line wasn’t posted until Sunday morning because it wasn’t clear if David Carr or Dave Ragone would start for Houston. Imagine caring that much about Carr versus Ragone!

With so many sportsbooks out there, things have changed. There’s a line everywhere for this game even though Teddy Bridgewater is in concussion protocol. Bridgewater played very well in his first three starts for Denver before faltering a bit last week. It’s a shame he never had a chance to lead a second-half comeback versus Baltimore because he was knocked out just prior to halftime. Lock gave the Broncos no chance because he couldn’t deal with the pressure behind an offensive line missing two starters.

It remains to be seen if Denver will once again be without two of its blockers, but if it is, the Broncos will have issues moving the chains consistently against a great Steeler front. Pittsburgh did what it could versus Aaron Rodgers last week, but it’ll obviously have more success against Denver, especially if Lock is under center.

PITTSBURGH OFFENSE: It’s unclear if the Broncos will have problems with their offensive line, but we know the Steelers will. Pittsburgh has one of the worst blocking units in the NFL, making it impossible for the team to sustain consistent drives. As someone who bet four units on the Steelers last week, it was especially aggravating to watch Ben Roethlisberger toss a 1-yard checkdown on fourth-and-5 and a minus-1-yard checkdown on fourth-and-4. It’s not that Roethlisberger wanted to do that; he simply had no time to do anything else.

The Broncos bring plenty of heat with Von Miller and the rest of the front seven, so the Steelers will once again struggle to produce anything offensively. They might hit one or two big plays, but they’ll end up punting most of the time.

If the Steelers hypothetically gave Roethlisberger time to throw, he could manage to locate some of his talented receivers against a secondary that could be down multiple cornerbacks. However, that’s not a reality in which we exist, so any injuries the Broncos have in their secondary could prove to be inconsequential.

RECAP: This is an extremely difficult game to handicap, and not just because we don’t know who Denver’s starting quarterback will be. That’s because the Broncos have a myriad of injury question marks with their offensive line and secondary.

I’ll be on the Broncos if everyone questionable is available to play, but if the Broncos are down two offensive linemen and their quarterback, it’ll be difficult not to pull the trigger on the Steelers, even when considering their blocking woes.

We’ll have more clarity as the week progresses, so check back later or follow @walterfootball for updates. For now, I’m going to pencil in the Broncos for no units.

THURSDAY THOUGHTS: Ben Roethlisberger missed Wednesday’s practice, so we may see Mason Rudolph. Am I crazy to think that Rudolph could be an upgrade over Roethlisberger?

SATURDAY NOTES: Ben Roethlisberger practiced fully the rest of the week following Thursday’s update, but I’m still skeptical about his health. I’m on the Broncos, as Teddy Bridgewater will play, but I may switch my pick Sunday morning if Courtland Sutton is sidelined. Sutton had a late downgrade late in the week, which is never a good sign. The Broncos are already down Jerry Jeudy and K.J. Hamler, so Bridgewater would only have Tim Patrick at his disposal if Sutton were sidelined.

FINAL THOUGHTS: Courtland Sutton will play, so I’ll stay on Denver for no units. The best line is at Bovada (-1.5 -110). The sharps, perhaps waiting for the Sutton news, jumped on Denver on Sunday morning.

Green Bay Packers (3-1) at Cincinnati Bengals (3-1)
Line: Packers by 3. Total: 50.5.
Sunday, Oct. 10, 1:00 PM


The Matchup. Edge: Bengals.

Video of the Week: This video makes me want to go into politics (thanks, Luke T.):



I love how he keeps going back to his notes amid screaming incoherently.

CINCINNATI OFFENSE: The Packers won their third consecutive game last week, but they received some bad news afterward, learning that Jaire Alexander sprained his AC joint. It’s unclear how much time Alexander will miss, but he’s almost certain to be out for this game. If so, that’ll obviously be a huge boon for Cincinnati’s offense.

Even better, the Bengals will be welcoming back Tee Higgins, in all likelihood. Higgins, Ja’Marr Chase and Tyler Boyd figure to torch an Alexander-less Packer secondary, as Joe Burrow continues his improved play. Burrow’s offensive line still has some liabilities, but the unit as a whole has been playing better of late, so BUrrow will have time to find his dynamic wideouts for big gains.

Unfortunately for the Bengals, they have a major injury of their own, as Joe Mixon is injured with an ankle sprain. However, he’s just day-to-day despite previous reports that said otherwise, so there’s a chance he might be able to play this game. If he doesn’t, Cincinnati will have no ground attack to speak of because backup Samaje Perine is terrible.

GREEN BAY OFFENSE: Despite the injury to Alexander, the Packers obviously still have a chance to win this game because of Aaron Rodgers. Following a sluggish start to the season, Rodgers has caught fire lately. Despite the Steelers winning in the trenches last week, Rodgers was able to score 27 points against a tough defense.

Rodgers could have his work cut out for him again because the Bengals’ pass rush should be able to get to him. If Ser Elgton Jenkins is sidelined once more, the Packers will be down two offensive linemen against a Cincinnati defensive line that has done a good job of pressuring the quarterback this year.

The Bengals struggled against the run Thursday night, but this was not expected. They put the clamps down on David Montgomery and Dalvin Cook earlier in the year, restricting them to exactly 61 rushing yards each. The Bengals should be able to similarly limit Aaron Jones and A.J. Dillon.

RECAP: The public is all over the Packers, but the sharps have already bet the Bengals at +3.5. I can’t say I’m surprised because I love the Bengals as well, assuming the Packers are as injured as I think they are.

The Packers potentially missing Alexander and two offensive linemen is a huge deal. Blocking Cincinnati’s underrated defensive front and defending all of the Bengals’ talented receivers will be difficult for Green Bay. Also, the Packers could be distracted coming off a nationally televised win over the Steelers. The Packers are very prone to slacking a couple of times each year, and I doubt they’ll bring their “A” game to Cincinnati.

It’s also fair to question if this spread is too high. What have the Packers done that’s so impressive this year? They’ve beaten the Lions after trailing at halftime, the injury-ravaged 49ers in a two-point affair, and the anemic Steelers at home. None of this is overly impressive. I don’t think the Packers deserve to be three-point road favorites. I made this line a pick ’em, so we’re getting three points of value, including the all-important key number of three.

This could end up being a big bet on the Bengals. The injury report will dictate the unit count.

THURSDAY THOUGHTS: As mentioned earlier, the sharps bet the Bengals at +3.5. There’s a ton of public money on the Packers, but the pros like Cincinnati.

SATURDAY NOTES: The sharps continue to bet on the Bengals. In addition to Jaire Alexander being ruled out, the Packers will also be missing their center. The only reason they’re favored is name recognition. The Bengals, who will have Jessie Bates and Chidobe Awuzie back in the lineup following their Week 4 hiatus, are the play. This is a five-unit pick. I’m also locking this is now with the line moving to +2.5 in some sharp sportsbooks. You can still get +3 -115 at BetUS, Bovada and DraftKings.

FINAL THOUGHTS: All the viable +3s are gone. The sharps continued to pound the Bengals. The best +3 I can find comes with -125 at Bovada. The Packers’ injury concerns are worse than expected, as Sir Elgton Jenkins will be out again, meaning the Packers will be down three blockers in addition to Jaire Alexander. Joe Mixon will play, but that doesn’t matter very much.

New England Patriots (1-3) at Houston Texans (1-3)
Line: Patriots by 7.5. Total: 39.
Sunday, Oct. 10, 1:00 PM


The Matchup. Edge: Patriots.

The Adventures of Tom Brady’s Haircuts are complete. They may return in the future, but I had to stop them for now.

By the way, my other book is still available as well:



In this book, I talk about the top NFL Draft busts, and what would’ve happened had each team gone a different route. Also, I discuss why Roger Goodell has banned us from the NFL Combine.

NEW ENGLAND OFFENSE: Bill Belichick often dominates rookie quarterback, and I can’t imagine that he’ll have a difficult time stopping Davis Mills. The third-round rookie quarterback was a total disaster against the Bills, accumulating a grand total of three passing yards in the opening half, compared to three turnovers.

Mills won’t fare any better against Belichick, whose defense just limited Tom Brady to 19 points. Mills might have a nice connection with Brandin Cooks here and there, but then again, Belichick is the master of eliminating one aspect of an opposing offense. I imagine he’ll focus on Cooks because he’s Houston’s sole play-maker.

HOUSTON OFFENSE: Mac Jones has played very well despite being the last of the quarterbacks chosen in the opening round. I’ve seen some people point to analytics that say otherwise, but their formulas are just broken. Jones has been very impressive, releasing passes quickly and accurately.

This doesn’t seem like an overly difficult matchup on paper, but Texans defensive coordinator Lovie Smith confused Trevor Lawrence in the opener with his schemes. It’s possible that he could fool Jones into some mistakes. Then again, Jones is coached extremely well, so Belichick and Josh McDaniels can make sure that doesn’t happen very often.

I liked what I saw out of Damien Harris last week, as the Patriots finally unleashed him as a receiver out of the backfield to counter the injury to James White. If Harris continues to serve in that role, he should have success against the pedestrian Texan linebackers.

RECAP: I never imagined that I would be backing Mac Jones as a nine-point favorite, yet here we are. I’m on the Patriots despite this high line. Mills is that bad. If it were possible to hold the Texans to negative points, Belichick would do it because he has such a colossal mismatch versus Mills.

That said, I don’t know if I can bet this game because of the high spread. The Patriots don’t exactly have the most explosive offense, and with Lovie Smith on the opposing sideline, Jones could make some mistakes that covering this number will be difficult.

THURSDAY THOUGHTS: Jacob alerted me that the Patriots have some offensive linemen sidelined right now because of minor illnesses. If they’re out, I may switch my pick to- wait, never mind, I’m not picking Davis Mills against Bill Belichick.

SATURDAY NOTES: Two Patriots offensive linemen (Trent Brown, Shaq Mason) are definitely out. Two others (Isaiah Wynn, Michael Onwenu) may miss this game as well due to minor illnesses. This would ordinarily warrant a fade, but doing so would mean backing Davis Mills versus Bill Belichick. The sharps are betting on Mills.

FINAL THOUGHTS: The sharps are betting the Texans because of the Patriots’ offensive line issues. I still like the Patriots though. The best line is -7.5 -110 at DraftKings.