NFL Picks Against the Spread: Week 5, 2021

Chicago Bears (2-2) at Las Vegas Raiders (3-1)
Line: Raiders by 6. Total: 45.5.
Sunday, Oct. 10, 4:05 PM


The Matchup. Edge: Raiders.

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CHICAGO OFFENSE: It’s not yet clear who will get the nod for the Bears because head coach Matt Nagy told the media that Andy Dalton is still the starter when healthy. I imagine this was just coachspeak because Nagy could have a full mutiny on his hands if opts to bench Justin Fields after he was so successful against the Lions. Fields made a couple of mistakes, but was otherwise excellent versus Detroit’s sorry defense.

Fields figures to have another positive matchup in this game, thanks to the high number of injuries the Raiders suffered to their secondary Monday night. They lost three cornerbacks against the Chargers, so Allen Robinson and Mad-Eye Mooney figure to have an easy time getting open. The only question is if the Bears’ offensive line will give Fields enough time. They’ll struggle to block Yannick Ngakoue and Maxx Crosby, but Fields can always buy time with his legs to find an open receiver.

Another injury on this side of the ball is to David Montgomery, who will be sidelined four or five weeks. However, the Bears have a solid backup in Damien Williams, so they’ll be able to maintain a solid ground attack against a defense that just allowed Austin Ekeler to rush for 117 yards on just 15 carries.

LAS VEGAS OFFENSE: I’ve been waiting for the Raiders’ offensive line to be exposed, and it finally was Monday night. Joey Bosa talked about hitting Derek Carr enough to make him “curl into a ball,” and that’s exactly what happened:



Khalil Mack and Akiem Hicks should be able to similarly rattle Carr behind his atrocious offensive line. Carr will still have some nice throws to Darren Waller and his receivers, but I imagine that the Raiders won’t be able to establish consistent drives because of the pressure.

I also don’t trust Josh Jacobs to be fully healthy. The Raiders started Jacobs prematurely Monday night, and he wasn’t quite himself. It might be difficult for Jacobs to fully recover on a short week, and this isn’t a favorable matchup anyway.

RECAP: We’ll see if the Raider cornerbacks stay injured, but if they do, I’ll like the Bears quite a bit. They already had a big advantage with their defense against the Raider offensive line, so having multiple injured cornerbacks will be a problem against Chicago’s talented receiving duo.

We’ll see what the injury report unearths, but I imagine I’ll have at least a couple of units on the Bears. The Raiders, who won two games in overtime, could easily be 1-3 right now rather than 3-1, and if that were the case, this line would likely be Las Vegas -3. That’s exactly the line the computer model projects, so if that’s correct, we’re getting some nice spread value with the visitor.

THURSDAY THOUGHTS: A couple of Raider cornerbacks missed practice Wednesday, so I anticipate them struggling to defend the pass. I’m hoping for a +6 to appear. If I see one for -110 vig, I may lock in this pick.

SATURDAY NOTES: I thought I was going to bet the Bears because I liked their pass rush (Khalil Mack, Akiem Hicks) against a bad offensive line. Little did I know that those two players would likely be sidelined! Hicks is out, while Mack is very iffy to pay after being D-D-L during the week. Even if Mack suits up, he may not be 100 percent. I thought about switching to the Raiders, but they could be distracted by that Jon Gruden e-mail story. I’ll stick with Chicago, but this will be a non-wager, which is a shame.

SUNDAY MORNING NOTES: I’m not planning on betting this game, but if you do, you can get Chicago +6 -114 at Bookmaker.

FINAL THOUGHTS: The +6 -114 I referenced earlier is gone. The best line now is +6 -121 at Bookmaker, which I would play if you plan on betting this game. Six is the No. 3 key number in the NFL, so paying 10 extra cents is worth it. The sharps aren’t betting this game.

Cleveland Browns (3-1) at Los Angeles Chargers (3-1)
Line: Chargers by 2. Total: 47.
Sunday, Oct. 10, 4:05 PM


The Matchup. Edge: Chargers.

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CLEVELAND OFFENSE: The Browns should’ve never been in a position where they needed a last-second stop to prevail against the Vikings. They won 14-7, but their margin of victory would’ve been much greater if Baker Mayfield wasn’t so terrible in that game.

I couldn’t believe how poorly Mayfield played. He missed three potential touchdowns with his inaccurate passes. This wasn’t just a one-game fluke because he was abysmal the prior week against Chicago as well. It’s not like Mayfield isn’t protected well, or anything; he’s just not hitting his throws, and he’s not even close on a number of them.

Mayfield will have a chance to rebound against the Chargers, who will have to be concerned with the Browns’ rushing attack. The Chargers surrendered big rushing performances to the Cowboys and Chiefs in Weeks 2 and 3, so they’ll have problems containing Nick Chubb and Kareem Hunt.

SAN ANGELES OFFENSE: Besides the running game, what saved the Browns from Mayfield’s ineptitude against the Vikings was the defense. Fresh off compiling nine sacks against Justin Fields, the front line flooded Minnesota’s backfield. Kirk Cousins didn’t have a chance beyond his opening touchdown.

The Chargers have a much better offensive line than the Bears or Vikings, so Cleveland won’t be able to dominate the trenches like it did the past two games. This protection certainly helped Justin Herbert versus Yannick Ngakoue and Maxx Crosby on Monday night, and he was able to thrive as a result.

Something that must be considered, however, is that the Browns have a much better secondary than the Raiders, who lost three cornerbacks to injury. They’ll be able to limit the Charger weapons, though Keenan Allen, Mike Williams and Austin Ekeler are impossible to stop completely.

RECAP: This is a tough game to call. The Browns have the better team overall, but Mayfield is really weighing them down with his poor play. Cleveland has gotten by bad teams like the Bears and Vikings despite Mayfield’s ineptitude, but that won’t work against the Chargers.

I’m going to buy low on Mayfield. He was excellent in the first two weeks, so perhaps he can bounce back off two dud performances. I suppose I should say I’m going to “select low” on Mayfield because I do not plan on betting this game.

THURSDAY THOUGHTS: The big news here is that Baker Mayfield has been playing with a torn labrum, which explains his struggles. I may switch this pick to the Chargers depending on what we see in the injury report.

SATURDAY NOTES: What the hell happened to the Browns? They were mostly healthy last week. Now, look at their current injury report:



This doesn’t even include Baker Mayfield, who is dealing with a torn labrum. Garrett says he’ll play, but he may not be 100 percent. The healthy Chargers, meanwhile, will be getting top cornerback Chris Harris back into the lineup. I was wondering why the sharps were on the Chargers, and this is exactly why. We’ll see what the final injury report looks like, but I’ll be betting heavily on the Chargers.

SUNDAY MORNING NOTES: I’m a bit worried that the sharps will bet the Chargers up to -3, but I think the spread will remain at -2.5. I’d rather wait to see if there’s a surprise inactive.

FINAL THOUGHTS: The line did not go to -3, as the sharps didn’t bet up this spread, but didn’t take Cleveland either. The Browns had seven questionable players heading into this game, all of whom missed practice time this week, but five will play. Only Jedrick Wills and Jadeveon Clowney are out, so this will not be a five-unit wager. I’ll be betting three units on the Chargers, with the best line being -2 -108 at Bookmaker.

New York Giants (1-3) at Dallas Cowboys (3-1)
Line: Cowboys by 7. Total: 52.5.
Sunday, Oct. 10, 4:25 PM


The Matchup. Edge: None.

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DALLAS OFFENSE: It was this exact matchup on this exact week a year ago when Dak Prescott tore up his knee late in the third quarter. The Cowboys survived the Giants, 37-34, but lost their quarterback for the year. This will be Prescott’s chance to overcome his demons in what is a much promising season for his team thus far.

Prescott, however, has a difficult matchup against a strong New York secondary. The Giants have talented cornerbacks to take away his talented receivers, while the defensive line could give some of the Dallas blockers fits.

However, the one major weakness in the Giants’ defense is something the Cowboys can exploit. Blake Martinez suffered a season-ending injury, which is a huge loss. That made the Giants’ usually strong run defense weaker last week versus Alvin Kamara. I imagine Ezekiel Elliott and Tony Pollard will enjoy similar success.

NEW YORK OFFENSE: Daniel Jones had a chance to lead his team to victory in this matchup last week, but fell short on the final drive. Jones has played much better this year, as he has done a good job of limiting his turnovers. He had just one give-away in last Sunday’s victory, and that was a meaningless interception on a Hail Mary attempt prior to halftime.

It certainly helps Jones that he has stud players like Saquon Barkley, Kenny Golladay and the emerging Kadarius Toney at his disposal. His blocking is also better this year. Andrew Thomas has improved greatly after a rough preseason and opening game. Still, it’s going to be a tall task for the Giants to block Dallas’ improved pass rush.

The Cowboys have improved against the pass because of Micah Parsons and Trevon Diggs, but they’re still weak to the run. Barkley figures to have a big game as both a runner and a receiver out of the backfield.

RECAP: It’s going to feel weird picking the Cowboys in this matchup because I often take the underdog in these Giants-Cowboys affairs. This is because Dallas has been overrated for quite some time. That’s not the case anymore, as the Cowboys’ defense has improved. The Giants might actually be the overrated team because the advance spread on this game was Dallas -8.5. Because the Giants beat the Saints, the line fell to -7. Thus, we’re getting some value with the Cowboys, all because the Giants defeated an injury-ravaged Saints squad.

I’m not planning this game because the advance line move is the only edge I could find, but the Cowboys appear to be the correct side.

THURSDAY THOUGHTS: The Giants had many players out of Wednesday’s practice, including Andrew Thomas. I may end up betting the Cowboys if the Giants’ injury report looks bleak.

SATURDAY NOTES: Andrew Thomas ended up being limited the rest of the week, so the Giants’ injury report didn’t look bleak, as speculated. I’ll bet a couple of units on the Cowboys if Thomas is sidelined; otherwise, I won’t be wagering on this contest.

SUNDAY MORNING NOTES: This spread appears to be rising – or at least the vig is – but you can still get -7 -110 at DraftKings.

FINAL THOUGHTS: There are no injury surprises, and there is no sharp money on either side. The spread or vig has risen in most sportsbooks, but you can still get a great line (-7 -106) at Bookmaker if you like the Cowboys.

San Francisco 49ers (2-2) at Arizona Cardinals (4-0)
Line: Cardinals by 5.5. Total: 48.5.
Sunday, Oct. 10, 4:25 PM


The Matchup. Edge: 49ers.

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ARIZONA OFFENSE: Kyler Murray was incredible against the Rams last week. Despite having never beaten Los Angeles, Murray destroyed his divisional rival, as the Rams had no answer for him. Murray beat them with both his arm and his legs, and it’s likely that he’ll do the same thing to the 49ers, given their injury woes.

While the Rams are fully healthy, San Francisco’s secondary is a disaster. The 49ers were missing three of their top four cornerbacks last week, and they could be down the same personnel in this contest. If so, I don’t know how they’re going to stop DeAndre Hopkins and the rest of Murray’s weapons.

The 49ers’ only hope is to swarm the backfield and keep Murray from making enough plays with his legs. The Cardinals were missing two offensive linemen last week, so Nick Bosa and company will flood the backfield. However, they historically have issues with scrambling quarterbacks, which is why they seldom beat Russell Wilson. Murray is obviously similar, which would explain why he beat the 49ers when San Francisco was healthy last year.

SAN FRANCISCO OFFENSE: The Cardinals may have to worry about containing a scrambling quarterback as well. Jimmy Garoppolo suffered a “calf injury” in the second quarter last week, resulting in his benching. Trey Lance played the entire second half.

Lance made some errant throws, but provided the 49ers with more upside than the ineffective Garoppolo did. The Cardinals will have to worry about his scrambling, and it won’t help that they won’t have much tape on him. Arizona hasn’t battled a mobile quarterback yet, so Lance could do well, especially if Arizona is lacking focus off its huge victory.

The Cardinals’ run defense, meanwhile, has been leaky since their surprising suffocation of Derrick Henry. They’ve surrendered substantial rushing yardage every week since, so Lance and either Elijah Williams or Trey Sermon could rack up plenty of yardage on the ground.

RECAP: Under normal circumstances, I would pick the Cardinals. The 49ers, once again, have struggled against mobile quarterbacks, and they’re really hurt by all of their injuries, particularly in the secondary. Arizona obviously has the personnel to take advantage of this.

However, there are two factors to consider. First, the injuries to the Arizona offensive line could play a factor in this game despite not doing so versus the unfocused Rams. I don’t want to bet on a substantial favorite missing multiple blockers. Second, the Cardinals could be flat following their historic victory. Much like the Rams last week, Arizona may not bring its “A” game versus a team looking to rebound off two consecutive losses.

We’ll see what the injury report unearths, but at the moment, I’m on the 49ers for no units, as we’re getting tremendous value per the advance spread, which was only Arizona -2.5. I may end up betting this game depending on news we receive later in the week.

THURSDAY THOUGHTS: No word yet on Jimmy Garoppolo versus Trey Lance. The longer the 49ers wait, the more that benefits them because the Cardinals have to prepare for two quarterbacks.

SATURDAY NOTES: There’s some great injury news for the 49ers, and it has nothing to do with Garoppolo being ruled out. The 49ers will be getting Josh Norman back, so they won’t be totally inept versus the pass like I thought they would be. That’s not the best part either. The great news for San Francisco is that Arizona’s top cornerback, Byron Murphy, has been ruled out. Not only that, but one of the team’s other primary corners, Marco Wilson, is questionable after being downgraded twice during the week. The 49ers should be able to throw all over the Cardinals, who will likely be flat off their big win. There’s a reason the sharps are betting San Francisco. I’m making a huge adjustment and betting big on the 49ers.

SUNDAY MORNING NOTES: I was hoping to find a +6 today, but the sharps are betting on the 49ers. I doubt we’ll find one.

FINAL THOUGHTS: We have a viable +6 -120. You can find that at BetUS, while Bookmaker has +6 -123 available. Betting up to six is recommended because that’s such a key number, especially with the new overtime rules. The Cardinals will be down both Byron Murphy and Marco Wilson, so they’re missing four of their top five cornerbacks versus a quarterback with whom they’re unfamiliar. The sharps are likely on the 49ers for these reasons.

Buffalo Bills (3-1) at Kansas City Chiefs (2-2)
Line: Chiefs by 2.5. Total: 56.5.
Sunday, Oct. 10, 8:20 PM


The Matchup. Edge: TBA.

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KANSAS CITY OFFENSE: The Chiefs had an incredibly sloppy game against the Chargers a couple of weeks ago. Remarkably, their first three drives, all of which advanced to the Chargers’ 30-yard line, all concluded with turnovers. The Chiefs ultimately lost, which made me believe that they would have a much more professional approach to last week’s game despite being seven-point road favorites. This is exactly what happened, as the Chiefs scored a touchdown on all but one possession in the game.

It might be difficult for Mahomes to be nearly flawless in a tougher matchup, but I would expect the same sort of attitude that he had versus the Eagles. Mahomes knows he can’t fool around with no-look passes to unknowns like Marcus Kemp. He’ll often target Tyreek Hill and Travis Kelce, both of whom figure to win their tough matchups sometimes. Tre’Davious White will smother Hill occasionally, while the Bills’ excellent linebacker corps will tie up Kelce at times, but both are talented to triumph a percentage of the time.

The Bills have done a better job of putting pressure on the quarterback this year, which was the problem in the AFC Championship. That said, the Chiefs have strengthened their offensive line as well. Buffalo will get some pressure at Mahomes, but Mahomes can use his legs and either buy time for himself in the pocket or scramble for big gains.

BUFFALO OFFENSE: Josh Allen displayed poor accuracy in his first two games this season, but torched the Redskins in Week 3. The battle against the Texans was a mixed bag, with Allen struggling at times. It wasn’t a difficult matchup, but the poor weather played a factor. Plus, the Bills were likely looking ahead to this huge game.

It’s no secret that Kansas City’s defense has struggled this year. Things can improve if Frank Clark and Charvarius Ward return from injury, but that may not make a big difference, especially if they’re not 100 percent. The Chiefs struggled to stop Jalen Hurts last week, so if Allen is as accurate as he was versus Washington, it’ll be impossible for the Chiefs to contain him.

The one thing in Kansas City’s favor is that it doesn’t have to worry about any sort of running game. The Bills don’t have much of a ground attack, so the Chiefs can concentrate on stopping the pass. That’s much easier said that done against Buffalo, however.

RECAP: Everyone is down on the Chiefs. A mainstream publication had them 15th in their power rankings heading into Week 4, and casual fans aren’t buying into them yet. The proof is here; despite the Chiefs not even being favored by a field goal at home versus a team they demolished in the AFC Championship, the public is backing the underdog, betting the Bills at nearly a two-thirds clip.

I love fading publicly backed underdogs, and I’m going to do so in this matchup. The Chiefs, somehow, are underrated. They could easily be 4-0 right now if they hadn’t shot themselves in the foot versus the Ravens and Chargers. If they were 4-0, this spread would certainly be above a field goal. I imagine it would be -4 or even -4.5.

I personally made this spread Kansas City -4. The advance line was -3.5. Thus, I’m going to take the value and bet a few units on the host.

THURSDAY THOUGHTS: Matt Milano missed Wednesday’s practice with a hamstring injury. If he’s out, I will put more units on the Chiefs.

SATURDAY NOTES: There are two major injury questions right now. The first is Milano, who was D-D-L in practice this week. Chris Jones is the other; he was a worse D-D-D. These are two of the better defensive players in the NFL, so their availability will determine my unit count.

SUNDAY MORNING NOTES: Sharp action on the Chiefs is pushing this line up to -2.5. You might consider locking in -2.5 -115 at DraftKings, but I’d rather wait for the inactives list.

FINAL THOUGHTS: Both teams are down their defensive star, as the Chiefs are missing Chris Jones and the Bills won’t have Matt Milano. Given that Milano is the centerpiece of the Buffalo defense, I’d say this impacts the visitor more. I still like the Chiefs, and I’ll bet them for two units. The best line is -2.5 -115 at DraftKings, followed by -2.5 -120 at Bookmaker (update: now -114 at Bookmaker). The sharps are on Kansas City.

Indianapolis Colts (1-3) at Baltimore Ravens (3-1)
Line: Ravens by 7. Total: 46.
Monday, Oct. 11, 8:15 PM


The Matchup. Edge: Ravens.

This week on ESPN, we’re going to have awful announcers calling the shots instead the great preseason homers like Kevin Reilly, Ron Wolfley and Don Tollefson, inept ESPN guys Emmitt, Herman Edwards, and aloof people like Jay Cutler. Here’s what it would sound like if some of these dudes (and some special guests) were calling this game:

Reilly: Welcome to the city of Baltimore, where the Baltimore Colts will take on the Baltimore Colts. Guys, we’re getting crushed in the ratings by the Manning broadcast, so our producers had to make a drastic change. Because this game is close enough to my great city of Philadelphia, Mother was able to make the trip! The producers think that my interactions with Mother will help the ratings, and I’m sure they’re right!

Emmitt: Martha, I ask the productioners if they want me to ask my twin father if he want to comed on the show with me like the Walter Payton Manning and his brother Alvin Manning, but they not reply to my e-mail I put in the mailbox.

Reilly: Emmitt, I’m a computer expert, so I can tell you I’m pretty confident that you shouldn’t put your e-mails in a mailbox. I’m a computer expert, right, Mother?

Reilly’s Mother: Yes, Poopykins, but that reminds me that you have to set up my new 56K modem before din-din tomorrow, or you’re going to have to eat broccoli instead of macaroni and cheese.

Reilly: OK, Mother, but can I play video games on your computer after you go to bed?

Reilly’s Mother: No, Poopykins, because playing video games at night will harm your young, virgin eyes!

Reilly: No fair!

Tollefson: Kevin, you’re pathetic. You can’t let a woman tell you what to do, even if it’s your mother. If one of the women I have locked in my dungeon said anything like that to me, I’d whip her for hours and then make her cook and clean naked, which means she’d have to clean twice because her blood would be all over the floor!

Reilly’s Mother: Donald H. Tollefson, you better treat those kidnapped women with respect, or you won’t get any macaroni and cheese either the next time you’re over for a sleepover!

Tollefson: Sorry, Kevin’s mother…

Joe Biden: Mother! I saw mother the other day. She was cleaning the backyard when I came home from school. I told her, “Miss Susan, have you seen the monkey at the car dealership? The grapes at the barnyard are blooming as the waves crash into the microphone.” Then, the smiling bag looked at me and said, “George, we have some young girls we have coming to town. We’ll show them a good time.” I asks, “Spaghetti Sauce, can we sniff their lovely hair?” And he tells me that the hair’s not for sniffing. Not this time. They can’t touch my hairy legs either. That’s because they’re all dead, and we’re gonna suck their blood.

Donald Trump: Excuse me, excuse me, did anyone just hear what Sleepy, Creepy Joe just said!? He said he drinks the blood of young children! What a total whack job! No one is a bigger, total whack job than Sleepy, Creepy Joe, who frankly, isn’t even the President of the United States! I’m more of a president than Sleepy, Creepy Joe, and I’m not even president, although some people would say I’m the president, and when they tell me, “Sir, I still recognize me as president!” I say, “That’s very nice of you, but I’m not officially the president, but maybe unofficially the president, but either way, I’m still totally more of a president than Sleepy, Creepy Joe because he’s a total disaster and a total disgrace.” Believe me, anyone who says that Sleepy, Creepy Joe is president is a total liar and a total fraud, believe me, I know a lot about liars and frauds, in fact, no one knows more about liars and frauds than I do because I’m the expert, and no one knows about anything more than I do, and everyone agrees, and what we have here in Sleepy, Creepy Joe is the totalest fraud and totalest liar in the history of this planet, believe me.

Reilly: I believe you. Mother voted for you, so if I don’t believe you, I won’t get macaroni and cheese for dinner. New Daddy has to obey, too!

Jay Cutler: Yeah, I want some mac and cheese tonight.

Wolfley: GUYS, YOU SHOULDN’T BE EATING MACARONI AND CHEESE SO MUCH! IF YOU EAT TOO MUCH MACARONI AND CHEESE, NOT ONLY WILL YOU HAVE HEART PROBLEMS; YOU’LL BE AT RISK OF ALIEN ABDUCTION BY SPECIES 8472 WHO WILL CONDUCT ANAL PROBES.

Reilly: Not Species 8472! Now I’m going to have nightmares!

Charles Davis: Kevin, let’s talk about alien species, Kevin. Let’s talk about the Hirogen, Kevin. How about a conversion regarding the Kazon, Kevin? Please don’t forget about the Ocampa, Kevin. It’s high time we have a talk about the Talaxians, Kevin. What do you think about the Vidiian, Kevin? Care to say anything about the Borg, Kevin? Do any of these aliens scare you, Kevin!? Because they’re all coming to get you, Kevin!

Reilly: Oh no, I just peed my pants!!!

Reilly’s Mother: Look at what you did, Charles Davis! I’m disappointed in you. You won’t get any macaroni and cheese the next time you’re over for dinner!

Reilly: HA, TAKE THAT, CHARLES DAVIS! NO MACARONI AND CHEESE FOR YOU, YOU LOSER! We’ll be back after this!

BALTIMORE OFFENSE: The Ravens were criticized for running a real play on the final snap versus Denver for keeping their 100-yard rushing streak alive. This created some controversy, but the primary thing to note is that the Ravens couldn’t run the ball effectively versus the Broncos, given that they struggled to reach the century mark. Despite this, they still prevailed by a wide margin.

Lamar Jackson was brilliant against the Broncos, so he could continue to play well if his offensive line protects him well. That’s the primary concern for the Ravens, who were already down two starting blockers before losing Alejandro Villanueva to injury versus Denver. The Colts, with DeForest Buckner and Kwity Paye, have the defensive line to take advantage of any sort of Baltimore pass protection issues.

Of course, Jackson will attempt to do some damage with his legs. The Colts could be well prepared for this; they limited Jackson to just 58 rushing yards in a meeting last year.

INDIANAPOLIS OFFENSE: Despite the Colts restricting Jackson’s runs last year, they still lost 24-10. The reason for this was Philip Rivers’ ineptitude. Carson Wentz hasn’t played well when banged up this year, but if he’s healthy, he’s an obvious upgrade over Rivers.

Frank Reich should have Wentz prepared for the blitz. Wentz often dumps the ball off to his running backs, which will be a good way to counter Baltimore’s aggressive scheme. The Ravens don’t have the best talent at linebacker, so both Jonathan Taylor and Nyheim Hines should play well.

That said, the Colts have concerns with their offensive line as well. Quenton Nelson and Braden Smith were sidelined last week, which limited the Colts’ offense when the Dolphins weren’t shooting themselves in the foot. Smith’s return would be a huge boon to the Colts’ offense because Nelson is on injured reserve.

RECAP: We’ll see what happens with the injury report. Both teams have offensive line concerns that could be alleviated with players returning from injury. I could bet either side or have a no-unit pick on this game. As always, the most important update will be Saturday because that’s when the final injury report will be released. Check back then, or follow me @walterfootball for updates. For now, I’m going to pencil in the Ravens for no units, but that is likely to change.

THURSDAY THOUGHTS: I’m curious to see what the injury report will look like. If the Colts are mostly healthy, I’ll switch sides.

SATURDAY NOTES: The Colts are missing two offensive linemen, so I won’t be betting them. I’m going to be on Baltimore, but the unit count is currently unknown because the Ravens could be missing Alejandro Villanueva. I’ll have to wait until Monday, in all likelihood, to determine if I’m going to be betting on this game.

FINAL THOUGHTS: The public is all over the Ravens, while the sharps haven’t touched this game. The spread has risen to -7.5 in most sportsbooks, but if you’re betting the Ravens, you’ll want to get the -7 -124 available at Bookmaker because seven is the No. 2 key number in football. I’m going to be on Baltimore. Alejandro Villanueva will play, which is huge for the Ravens’ blocking. Meanwhile, the Colts won’t have two offensive linemen, a starting cornerback and a starting edge rusher. I’m not too confident, however, and I’m not too keen on spending -125 juice, so this will be just a one-unit play.