NFL Picks Against the Spread: Week 3, 2021

Carolina Panthers (2-0) at Houston Texans (1-1)
Line: Panthers by 8. Total: 43.
Thursday, Sept. 23, 8:20 PM


The Matchup. Edge: Panthers.

Week 2 Analysis: My seventh-place finish in the SuperContest seems like it occurred decades ago because I just endured one of the worst weeks in the history of this Web site. And yet, I can’t even identify what I did wrong. To summarize…

Redskins, 4 units: The Redskins’ defensive line had a great matchup versus a horrible Giants front missing a starter, and yet Daniel Jones had the NFL game of his life.

Panthers, 4 units: The only selection of three-plus units that was correct.

Steelers, 3 units: This pick failed as soon as T.J. Watt got hurt. Pittsburgh’s defense clamped down on the Raiders’ offense until the moment Watt left the game with an injury (Tyson Alualu also got hurt beforehand.) If I’m going to lose a game because a top-10 NFL player suffered an injury, so be it.

Eagles, 5 units: I can’t even describe how frustrating this game was. The Eagles legitimately outgained the 49ers and averaged 1.5 more yards per play. As my friend Chris put it, the Eagles played “the end zone is lava.” Everything that could’ve went wrong for Philadelphia went wrong against San Francisco, and yet the team still was one score away from covering.

Cardinals, 5 units: Kyler Murray threw a pick-six and then fired an interception near the red zone. Kirk Cousins didn’t have any turnovers. Despite this, the Cardinals still won, missing the cover by three points. If Murray didn’t needlessly throw the ball to the other team, the Cardinals likely would’ve won by at least a touchdown.

Chargers, 4 units: Every time the Chargers did anything positive, there was a penalty. I got a couple of texts/PMs from people asking me if someone had paid off the refs. Despite the blatant one-sided officiating, the Chargers were very close to covering (or at least pushing).

Chiefs, 5 units: The Chiefs were up the entire game, by double digits on some occasions, yet found a way to lose. Somehow, Patrick Mahomes scored just 28 points against a defense missing half of its starters.

I don’t know how it’s happening, but all the injured teams are beating the healthy teams in the NFL. Nothing that is happening is making any sense. Take a look at these numbers from Thursday and Sunday, which excludes the Saints-Panthers game because that’s the only one that made any sense:

Number of injured starters per NFL team that covered in Week 2: 2.86
Number of injured starters per NFL team that failed to cover in Week 2: 1.71

How is this even possible? Much of this includes teams having multiple injuries at one position, which, in the past, has made it difficult for teams to perform well. Yet, that was completely out the window in Week 2.

I don’t think this is some new dynamic that’s occurring in the NFL. I believe this is just s**t variance, and it all happened during one week. Nevertheless, I will do a deep dive on Wednesday night to see if I can make any adjustments.

A couple of things: First, I’m going to remind you every week that my wife is due around Christmas, so there will be a week in December when my picks and/or recaps could be released late. Second, I just published a book called How the 2020 MVP Was Stolen:



This book is not completely about football; it’s more political than anything, so some of you will hate it. In fact, it wouldn’t surprise me if Amazon bans it at some point, so get it while you can. Nevertheless, if you want to support the site, please consider ordering a copy!

HOUSTON OFFENSE: Let’s begin with the Texans’ “offense,” or whatever you want to call it because Tyrod Taylor will be sidelined for this game. Taylor got hurt with a non-contact injury just prior to halftime versus Cleveland, forcing third-round rookie Davis Mills into action.

If you didn’t catch Mills’ performance in the second half at Cleveland, you didn’t miss much. Mills dinked and dunked because he has no arm strength. He threw an interception, but would’ve tossed three picks in total if a pair of his passes weren’t dropped by defenders. Making matters worse for Mills, he won’t have a full week to prepare for his first start.

Mills needs all the help he can get, so this isn’t ideal. The Panthers have an improved secondary, especially with A.J. Bouye back from suspension, so they should be able to limit all of his receivers. Carolina also won’t have to worry about the deep pass at all, so it’ll be able to play closer to the line of scrimmage to take away Houston’s running game.

CAROLINA OFFENSE: The Jaguars didn’t get to run the ball very much against the Texans because of their deficit, and when they did, Urban Meyer had Carlos Hyde pick up three yards and a cloud of dust. The Texans were tested against the Browns, and they showed no ability to stop Nick Chubb.

That’s obviously significant because the Texans will have to deal with Christian McCaffrey. The All-Pro back will give the Texans headaches as a receiver out of the backfield as well. Houston’s linebacking corps was exposed via the Browns’ receiving backs last week, so that’s obviously problematic with this matchup against McCaffrey.

If there’s one area the Texans can expose the Panthers, it’s in the trenches, as Carolina will be missing one of its starting guards. The Texans could bother Sam Darnold if the Panthers are forced into throwing, but it’s likely that Carolina will be able to just lean on McCaffrey.

RECAP: This is a tough spot for Mills. As mentioned, it’s going to be difficult for him to prepare for his first start on a short week. It would be one thing if the Texans had a quality roster to support him, but that’s obviously not the case. Thus, Mills’ situation is different than Taylor Heinicke’s from a week ago.

The Panthers then become the obvious play, except for the part about laying more than a touchdown on the road with Darnold. That’s extremely unappealing, so I can’t see myself betting this game. If the Texans had a full week and a bit more talent overall, I’d consider a wager with them, but I just can’t pull the trigger.

Our Week 3 NFL Picks will be posted all day Tuesday. Follow @walterfootball for updates.

THURSDAY THOUGHTS: I almost had the urge to switch my selection to the Texans. I can’t stomach picking Sam Darnold as a huge favorite like this. However, Davis Mills is abysmal, and the Texans will be down two of their top three cornerbacks, plus potentially Justin Reid. I’ll stick with Carolina, but I’m nowhere close to betting this game.

FINAL THOUGHTS: The Texans are missing Justin Reid and Terrance Mitchell, as expected. The Panthers look like the right side, especially considering Davis Mills’ expected struggles. However, we’ve seen someone like Nick Mullens come out of nowhere and have a solid game in his debut because the other team has no tape on him. The same thing could happen with Mills. Throw in the fact that Sam Darnold doesn’t deserve to be favored by this much, as well as the public pounding the Panthers like crazy, and I wouldn’t be surprised if something goofy happened tonight. I’m not touching this game, and the sharps aren’t either. The best line for the Panthers is -8 -113 at Bookmaker.

Arizona Cardinals (2-0) at Jacksonville Jaguars (0-2)
Line: Cardinals by 8. Total: 51.5.
Sunday, Sept. 26, 1:00 PM


The Matchup. Edge: None.

My overrated-underrated feature was posted in this spot the past couple of years. I thought it would be better if there was less clutter on this page, so I set up a new NFL Overrated and Underrated Teams page that will be updated every Monday. I have overrated and underrated teams listed there, and some may shock you!

ARIZONA OFFENSE: Kyler Murray made some amazing plays against the Vikings, but I still can’t believe he threw those two interceptions. Murray had a terrific matchup and should’ve had his team scoring into the 40s. This is another similar situation.

The Jaguars don’t have the personnel to deal with Murray’s weapons. Cornerbacks C.J. Henderson and Shaq Griffin struggled against the Texans in Week 1, which obviously doesn’t bode well in this matchup because Arizona’s receivers are far superior. The DeAndre Hopkins matchup seems impossible, while Rondale Moore figures to break one or two long gains once again.

The only hope for Jacksonville is applying pressure on Murray, but it doesn’t have the horses to do that. Josh Allen is the lone viable pass rusher, and he has a difficult battle against D.J. Humphries.

JACKSONVILLE OFFENSE: I saw a stat this morning that Trevor Lawrence leads the NFL in uncatchable passes. That was interesting because he’s also endured plenty of drops from his receivers and James Robinson. However, I think it’s a misleading statistic because Lawrence’s offensive line hasn’t given him much of a chance, forcing him into errant throws.

Imagine what Chandler Jones and J.J. Watt will do to Jacksonville’s front. The two future Hall of Famers have been dominant thus far, and their onslaught of opposing blockers will continue in this contest. Lawrence will once again be rushed into poor passes.

That said, the Jaguars might have some success establishing Robinson in this contest. Dalvin Cook just enjoyed a great performance despite running behind a pedestrian offensive line. Zach Allen is a huge liability on Arizona’s defensive front, so this is something Jacksonville could exploit.

RECAP: This is not a game I’m interested in betting. I love the Cardinals overall – I bet them heavily on their over win total, and I bet them to win the Super Bowl at 50/1 odds – but this is a tough spot for them. They have to battle the Rams next week in a game that could decide the division. They have a horrible track record versus Los Angeles, so I imagine some preparation has begun for that contest. That said, it’s not a guarantee that there will be a look-ahead because Lawrence, being the No. 1 pick, might have Arizona’s attention.

So, the question is: Do I want to pick the Jaguars? The answer to that is no. They’re a much worse team than the Cardinals, and I don’t see how they’re going to stop Murray, unless Murray happens to throw the ball right to them a couple of times.

THURSDAY THOUGHTS: The Cardinals were missing several players in Wednesday’s practice, including DeAndre Hopkins, two starting offensive linemen (Kelvin Beachum, Justin Pugh) and a starting cornerback (Marco Wilson). If things don’t improve, I may switch to the Jaguars.

SATURDAY NOTES: I’m switching my pick to the Jaguars. Arizona’s injury report is a mess. DeAndre Hopkins is questionable after failing to practice once this week. Kelvin Beachum is also questionable with one limited practice. Byron Murphy, meanwhile, missed Thursday’s practice, though he’s expected to play. Jacksonville, conversely, has a clean injury report. This line has remained at +7.5 despite the disparity of the two injury reports. I now think Jacksonville will cover.

FINAL THOUGHTS: I’m already dreading my pick change, but it’s too late to move back to Arizona. DeAndre Hopkins will play, while C.J. Henderson and Tre Herndon will be out for the Jaguars. Arizona has a great matchup edge with its receivers versus the banged-up Jaguar corners. The best line is -8 -107 at Bookmaker. I wouldn’t bet this game – and the sharps aren’t either – but I would switch back to Arizona if it wasn’t too late.

Indianapolis Colts (0-2) at Tennessee Titans (1-1)
Line: Titans by 5. Total: 47.
Sunday, Sept. 26, 1:00 PM


The Matchup. Edge: None.

VEGAS UPDATE: I’ll be posting how the Vegas sportsbooks have done the previous week in this spot. The highest-bet sides were 34-42 in 2020 and 3-1 so far this year.

Here are the teams getting the most bets last week:

Chiefs -3

Bills -3

49ers -3

Broncos -6

Rams -4

Saints -3

Packers -10.5

The teams were 4-3, but it wasn’t a bad weekend for the books when factoring in the vig, plus parlay and teaser profits.

Here are the teams getting the most bets this week:

Cardinals -7.5

Panthers -7.5

Chiefs -6.5

Titans -5.5

Raiders -4

Cowboys -4

We have two road favorites, one team that pulled a big upset, two popular teams, and a new bandwagon team in the Raiders. What could go wrong?

INDIANAPOLIS OFFENSE: An NFL Network graphic I saw Monday was wrong. It listed the injuries to some of the quarterbacks from Week 2, and they designated Carson Wentz as “ankle.” It’s actually “ankles” because Wentz somehow hurt both of them. I’m not sure how that’s possible, but Wentz is apparently made of glass. It’s unclear if Wentz will play in this game, yet there’s a spread available in many sportsbooks. You can bet this contest at Bovada right now, despite the uncertainty.

If Wentz were healthy, I’d say that I expect the Colts to move the chains easily on Tennessee. The host has some severe problems defensively. The pass rush is mostly lackluster, and with Braden Smith presumably returning to bookend Eric Fisher, the Colts will suddenly have a stout offensive line again. This would allow Wentz to expose the biggest problem with the Titans’ defense, which is the secondary. Tennessee was beaten on three deep bombs this past Sunday and had no hope of stopping the Cardinals in Week 1.

Jacob Eason is obviously far worse than Wentz. He has a big arm, but his accuracy is dreadful. Still, it’s difficult to imagine him struggling in this matchup, especially when he can lean on his talented backs. The Titans are solid versus the run, but Jonathan Taylor and Nyheim Hines have plus matchups against the Titans’ linebackers as receiving threats out of the backfield.

TENNESSEE OFFENSE: Derrick Henry did nothing in the first six quarters of the season, but he went nuts in the second half against the Seahawks. Despite being down 24-9, Henry trampled Seattle to help his team overcome the 15-point deficit and prevail in overtime.

The Seahawks have a very weak defensive line that can’t stop the run, while the Colts are much stronger in that regard. Stopping Henry is never easy, but there’s a chance the Titans could be down two offensive linemen again, as Taylor Lewan missed last week’s game, while Rodger Saffold got hurt during the contest and had to leave early.

Another key unknown in this game is Xavier Rhodes’ availability. Rhodes’ presence would give the Colts a great chance to slow down Tennessee’s aerial assault. Ryan Tannehill torched the Seahawks despite numerous A.J. Brown drops and an overturned Julio Jones touchdown on a bad call, and he would do the same thing to the Colts if Rhodes is sidelined once more. Then again, the Colts would have a better chance of pressuring Tannehill than the Seahawks did if two offensive linemen are missing.

RECAP: There are many question marks in this game right now. Will Wentz play? If so, how healthy will he be? Will Rhodes and Braden Smith return for the Colts? Will Tennessee have a healthy offensive line?

We’ll have the answers to these questions eventually, but we do not possess them at the moment. My opinion on this game will obviously change when new data becomes available, but my plan was to bet the Colts, even if Wentz is sidelined. We’re getting nice line value with the Colts – the advance spread was -3.5 – and the Titans have too many problems to be favored by nearly a touchdown. The Colts outplayed the Rams and would’ve prevailed if they didn’t come away with zero points in two trips inside the 5-yard line. They should at least be able to cover at Tennessee.

Of course, people will want to fade the Colts if Eason gets the nod, but this doesn’t bother me at all. In fact, I’d prefer to have Eason under center than an injured Wentz. Good teams tend to play well with their backup quarterback in the game, and there would be too much of a spread overreaction if Wentz can’t play.

THURSDAY THOUGHTS: Both teams were missing a number of significant players in Wednesday’s practice. That includes Carson Wentz. It’s not yet clear if Wentz will play, but I’m hoping he’ll be sidelined so I can bet the Colts.

SATURDAY NOTES: It’s a major bummer that Carson Wentz is expected to play in this game. I was hoping to bet the Colts with their backup quarterback, but that’s probably not a possibility anymore. I have no interest in wagering on Indianapolis because it now has a banged-up signal-caller at the helm. In fact, I nearly switched my pick to the Titans, but I’ll keep it on the Colts for the line value.

FINAL THOUGHTS: There’s some sharp money coming in on the Colts, presumably because Carson Wentz is active. I wouldn’t touch the Colts because Wentz could be ineffective as a result of being banged up. The best line for the Colts is +5 at BetUS, while the best line for the Titans is -4 -109 at Bookmaker.

Baltimore Ravens (1-1) at Detroit Lions (0-2)
Line: Ravens by 7.5. Total: 50.5.
Sunday, Sept. 26, 1:00 PM


The Matchup. Edge: Lions.

HATE MAIL: I will be posting hate mail here. We got a bit this week:



It’s rather embarrassing to post something that can easily be debunked. The Internet is a free place to get information. All you need is some effort to avoid looking like a fool.

Here’s someone who embarrassed themselves by failing to understand the concept of teasers:



Look, teasers can be complicated for new bettors, so if you don’t understand something, all you have to do is ask politely! Actually, all you have to do is ask, even if it’s not politely. I’ll still answer.

Here’s a guy who’s mad that I pointed out that he has no sense of humor last week, but at least he was nice at the end:



My apologies! Humor is subjective, so I don’t care about anyone saying I’m not funny. But I’m glad he found my football analysis insightful and useful (though not so much in Week 2.)

Here’s another guy who was nice and mean at the same time:



Again, it’s cool if you didn’t like the comedy bits. People have told me that they love them and they were sad to see them go. I wish I had more time to make fun of Tom Brady’s haircuts, though I had problems finding new pictures. At any rate, I understand. Good, or even great humor isn’t for everyone, just like not everyone liked the Beatles, even though they are widely considered the best band of all time.

At any rate, there are still a couple of white supremacists with guilty consciences who are angry at me for still using the Redskins name:



Just pointing out the facts, no need to get angry.

Here’s another:



It truly is a shame that there are white supremacists on the comment board, but I doubt they realize how hurtful they’re being to Native Americans. They’re just blindly following the mainstream media narrative, which is always an incorrect thing to do.

BALTIMORE OFFENSE: Lamar Jackson was truly amazing during the comeback against the Chiefs. Kansas City’s bewildered defense had no answer for him, as Jackson danced circles around them. It’s fair to wonder if Jackson will do something similar to Detroit’s defense, but I highly doubt Jackson will scramble as much in this game. Jackson knows that he has to survive 17 games and the playoffs, and scrambling recklessly will put him on the fast track to getting injured.

Besides, there are plenty of liabilities in the Detroit secondary for Jackson to exploit. With Jeff Okudah gone, the Lions have been forced into using some pedestrian talents at the position, so Marquise Brown has a terrific matchup. It’s also difficult not to like Mark Andrews’ chances against a Detroit defense that couldn’t contain Robert Tonyan.

The Lions are also weak to the run, which doesn’t bode well against the Ravens. Baltimore trampled the Chiefs, and yet Detroit is worse versus ground attacks.

DETROIT OFFENSE: The Ravens will score plenty of points in this game, so how can the Lions possibly keep up? How will Jared Goff score points against the great Baltimore defense?

Well, Baltimore’s defense isn’t so great anymore. The team has so many injuries on this side of the ball. Already down three cornerbacks and a starting defensive lineman, the Ravens lost Brandon Williams and DeShon Elliott to injuries versus the Chiefs. It remains to be seen if either will return to action this week, but if not, the Ravens will be down about half their starting defense again.

This will at least give the Lions a shot. Williams’ absence would make the Ravens more susceptible to the run, while the linebackers would have issues against T.J. Hockenson and both D’Andre Swift and Jamaal Williams as receivers out of the backfield.

RECAP: If the Ravens were healthy, I would buy them being favored by this many points. I think I’d even pick them to cover in that scenario. However, this is not the case. Baltimore has multiple injuries to the offensive line and even more to the defense. A team with so many banged-up players has no business being favored by more than a touchdown on the road, even against the Lions.

Furthermore, Baltimore is coming off a very emotional victory against the Chiefs. That was their “Super Bowl.” I doubt they’ll have the same energy and passion versus the Lions. It’s not ideal that Detroit is coming off a short week, but I’m going with the home underdog unless a bunch of injured Ravens return to action this week.

My unit count will depend on the injury report, but I may end up betting two or three units on the Lions.

THURSDAY THOUGHTS: There’s a ton of money on the Ravens, and yet a number of players missed practice, including a bunch of their cornerbacks (though Jimmy Smith was limited), Ronnie Stanley, DeShon Elliott and Brandon Williams. Lamar Jackson also missed Thursday’s practice. This sort of banged-up team doesn’t deserve to be favored by more than a touchdown on the road, even if it’s against the Lions.

SATURDAY NOTES: If you thought the Ravens were banged up last week, you haven’t seen anything yet. Jimmy Smith may return, but Baltimore will be down Ronnie Stanley, two defensive linemen (Brandon Williams, Justin Madubuike) and two edge rushers (Justin Houston, Jaylon Ferguson) on top of the issues they had versus the Chiefs. It’s not ideal that the Lions, with less time to prepare than Baltimore, will be missing Jamie Collins and potentially Trey Flowers. However, given the injury concerns Baltimore possesses right now, it has no business being favored by more than a touchdown on the road, even against the lowly Lions. I’m betting three units on Detroit.

MONEYLINE PARLAY ADDED: I’ve put the Lions, Redskins and Dolphins moneylines into a parlay, betting a half a unit to win 20.5. They are three underdogs I like this week, so this is just a fun parlay with huge upside.

FINAL THOUGHTS: Trey Flowers and Jamie Collins are out for the Lions, while Jimmy Smith will make his 2021 debut for Baltimore. Despite this, sharp action on the Lions has pushed this spread down to +7.5 in most places. I still like the Lions with their back-door potential versus the Baltimore skeleton-crew defense. The best line is +8 at DraftKings.

Washington Redskins (1-1) at Buffalo Bills (1-1)
Line: Bills by 7. Total: 45.5.
Sunday, Sept. 26, 1:00 PM


The Matchup. Edge: None.

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BUFFALO OFFENSE: Two of the most disappointing players in the NFL this season are matched up against each other on this side of the ball. The first is Josh Allen, who has taken a huge step backward this season. His offensive line’s surprising struggles are playing a part in his regression, but Allen has not been the same quarterback as the one who almost won MVP in 2020. His accuracy is way off, as he’s missing routine throws he should complete in his sleep. A two-game sample size isn’t substantial, and Allen could revert back to potential MVP status, but his slow start has to be worrying to Buffalo supporters.

The second disappointing player is Chase Young. I thought there was a case to be made for him being a top-20 player on the NFL’s 100 list, but he’s been incredibly mediocre this season. He looks like an average pass rusher, as he barely did anything versus the Giants. Some of the other Redskin defensive linemen are still playing at a high level – namely Montez Sweat and Jonathan Allen – but Young has struggled. I’d love the Redskins’ matchup versus the Bills’ offensive line under normal circumstances, but Washington couldn’t even pressure Daniel Jones last week, and New York has an even worse blocking unit.

The Redskins have plenty of other disappointing players on their defense. The highly priced William Jackson can’t cover anyone for some reason, while safety Landon Collins looks like he’s running in quicksand. Thus, there are plenty of matchups for Allen to exploit. It’s unclear if his accuracy will improve enough for him to do so, however.

WASHINGTON OFFENSE: Despite Allen’s struggles against the Dolphins, the Bills still won in a 35-0 shutout because of their amazing defense. Of course, it didn’t help that the Dolphins shot themselves in the foot repeatedly, but the Buffalo defense line played a major factor in that victory.

The Redskins block better than both the Steelers and Dolphins, so this is the toughest matchup for the Bills’ defensive front to date. We’ll see if the improvements they made this offseason pay off, but Taylor Henicke will certainly have more time in the pocket than Ben Roethlisberger and Jacoby Brissett enjoyed. Heinicke, who will have plenty of time to prepare for this start, which was not the case for the Thursday night affair, will undoubtedly fire some heart-stopping passes into traffic again. He has a plus matchup to exploit against cornerback Levi Wallace, who has struggled through two games, though Terry McLaurin will be locked up versus Tre’Davious White.

Heinicke won’t be able to lean on his rushing attack. The Bills have done a great job of limiting opposing ground attacks thus far, and I don’t believe that will change against Antonio Gibson.

RECAP: I know the Bills are coming off a 35-0 victory, but based on Allen’s inaccuracy and the offensive line’s struggles, they don’t deserve to be huge favorites against a competent opponent like the Redskins. I made this spread -6 as a consequence. If these were the Bills from last year, I would be on board with a -9 spread, but Buffalo has not performed up to 2020 standards. At least not yet.

That said, I’d be more enthusiastic about betting the Redskins if they were also meeting expectations. I believed that they were the best team in the NFC East because I thought they possessed an elite defense. Young, Jackson and Collins have all been huge disappointments, however, and the Redskins just aren’t applying the same amount of quarterback pressure I thought they would.

The one caveat here is that the Redskins have had extra time to prepare for this game, so perhaps that will allow Ron Rivera to work his magic. I’m going to count on that happening, though I really don’t have a desire to bet on this contest at the moment.

THURSDAY THOUGHTS: There’s nothing of note from the injury report, but it’s worth pointing out that the sharps have been betting the Redskins early in the week.

SATURDAY NOTES: I’ve changed my mind about this game. I’m going to bet a few units on the Redskins. I believe they’ll play better after their mini-bye, especially knowing that they need to outperform expectations with a backup quarterback under center. Perhaps this is one reason the sharps have been wagering very heavily on the Redskins. The other might be that Josh Allen has no business being favored by a touchdown or more based on how poorly he’s played this season.

FINAL THOUGHTS: No injury updates of note. As mentioned previously, the sharps have been betting on the Redskins. The best line is +7 -105, which is available at DraftKings.

New Orleans Saints (1-1) at New England Patriots (1-1)
Line: Patriots by 3. Total: 43.
Sunday, Sept. 26, 1:00 PM


The Matchup. Edge: None.

If you missed it, I have an NFL Betting Props page. I’ll be adding to it as the season progresses!

Also, Confidence Pool Picks will return. They’ll be posted by Wednesday morning each week!

NEW ORLEANS OFFENSE: So much for that enthusiasm about Jameis Winston! Some networks argued Winston was the frontrunner for MVP following his performance against the Packers. I doubt they’ll be stating that after Winston struggled so much at Carolina.

To be fair, Winston didn’t have much of a chance, given that eight Saints coaches were absent from the game because of minor illnesses. They should be back this week to help create a strong game plan for Winston, which is key because Winston needs all the help he can get against Bill Belichick’s defense. While Winston may not be as flawless as he was versus the Packers, he’ll play much better at New England.

Of course, Winston’s outlook will depend on Alvin Kamara’s productivity. Kamara did nothing last week, but I like him to rebound in this matchup. The Patriots have yet to battle a strong rushing attack this year, and it seems as though New Orleans’ offensive line will win in the trenches.

NEW ENGLAND OFFENSE: Speaking of offensive lines overwhelming the opposing front, it’s hard not to love the Patriots’ blockers versus the Saints’ defensive line. New Orleans was missing a couple of edge players last week, and the group was expected to be worse than usual, thanks to an offseason that saw the Saints lose some key personnel due to financial reasons.

Mac Jones having adequate protection is key, as it’ll allow him to continue to play mistake-free football. Jones dinks and dunks a lot, but he doesn’t make errors, and there are some occasions in which he’ll make impressive throws. He’ll undoubtedly have some of those against the Saints if Marshon Lattimore is sidelined once more.

Jones will be able to lean on Damien Harris anyway. Atoning for his Week 1 fumble, Harris had an impressive touchdown run versus the Jets in which he broke seven tackles. Given that the Saints just had severe issues stopping Christian McCaffrey’s runs, Harris figures to perform well in this matchup.

RECAP: This is a tight game to handicap because the line is perfect. If the spread were -3.5, I’d be on the Saints. At -2.5, I’d take the Patriots.

The line is -3, however, which makes it more difficult. I’m going to side with the Saints, partly because the advance spread on this game was a pick ’em, so we’re getting some nice value with New Orleans in that regard. However, it’s very fair to wonder if the advance spread should’ve been that low in the first place.

One other factor in New Orleans’ favor is the fact that the team was completely humiliated last week. Good teams tend to bounce back well from embarrassing defeats like that. Of course, it remains to be seen if the Saints are a good team, but they certainly looked like one in the opener.

THURSDAY THOUGHTS: I have nothing new to report just yet. Someone on our YouTube picks video pointed out that FOX’s sportsbook has New England -2.5 available if you want to bet the Patriots. I’ve never tried FOX’s sportsbook, but I suppose they’re trustworthy.

SATURDAY NOTES: The Saints received some good news this week, as Marshon Lattimore and Chauncey Gardner-Johnson will be returning to action Sunday. I’m still leaning toward the Saints, but for no units.

FINAL THOUGHTS: There’s nothing to note here. The sharps aren’t betting this game, and there aren’t any major injury updates besides the Patriots confirming that Trent Brown will be out again, which isn’t a huge deal because they have good offensive line depth. The best line for the Patriots is -2.5 -117 at Bookmaker. For the Saints, it’s +3 -115 at DraftKings.

Los Angeles Chargers (1-1) at Kansas City Chiefs (1-1)
Line: Chiefs by 7. Total: 54.5.
Sunday, Sept. 26, 1:00 PM


The Matchup. Edge: None.

If you’d like to support this site outside of buying my books or referring people to it, you can check out the WalterFootball Merch Store as well! I can design shirts rather easily, so if you have any new ideas, let me know in the comments below.

KANSAS CITY OFFENSE: It was disappointing to see Patrick Mahomes score just 28 points against a Baltimore defense missing half of its starters (Kansas City’s seven other points came on the Tyrann Mathieu pick-six.) Mahomes just couldn’t do anything in the fourth quarter, and when the Chiefs failed to score any points when the Ravens trimmed the lead to 35-30, I knew it was over.

I have to believe that Mahomes will rebound in this matchup, especially if the Chargers are still missing Chris Harris. The terrific cornerback was sidelined against the Cowboys, and absent secondary personnel is never ideal against Mahomes. The Chargers will at least be able to match up Derwin James against Travis Kelce, but Mahomes will still play at a very high level as he attempts to redeem himself from last week’s loss.

Speaking of redemption, perhaps there will be some for Clyde Edwards-Helaire, who was guilty of the fumble that ultimately cost the Chiefs the game. The Chargers have a horrific run defense that was exposed last week. It’s unclear why Jerry Tillery is getting so many snaps when he’s one of the worst defensive linemen in the NFL, but this is something that Edwards-Helaire should be able to exploit.

SAN ANGELES OFFENSE: Speaking of strong rushing attacks, the Chiefs had issues stopping Baltimore’s ground game last week, so this is something the Chargers will seek to use to their advantage. I like Austin Ekeler as both a runner and a receiver out of the backfield in this contest.

Justin Herbert will use Ekeler’s play-making ability to his advantage. He’ll locate his talented receivers in favorable passing situations, all while being protected by an improved offensive line. Frank Clark looked out of shape versus Baltimore, so Herbert probably won’t have to worry about him applying any pressure.

All of this sounds great, but the Chargers played in typical Charger fashion last week, meaning they made plenty of mistakes to negate some great plays. They were flagged on countless occasions, while Herbert threw a killer interception in the end zone. Herbert tried to cost his team the victory against the Redskins in the opener with another pick, but he was bailed out by Antonio Gibson’s fumble. I imagine the Chargers will be guilty of more blunders in this game.

RECAP: I love betting elite quarterbacks coming off a loss. Mahomes obviously qualifies. There aren’t many NFL players who possess a larger chip on their shoulder than Mahomes when faced with detractors and adversity, so I expect him to redeem himself with a big victory over the Chargers.

Elite quarterbacks also take divisional matchups seriously. I’ve found that these signal-callers will often have their best games versus divisional foes in the first matchup of the season. Mahomes is 4-0 against the spread in these initial AFC West matchups as long as he’s not favored by more than a touchdown. I’m not a big trend guy – in fact, I hate them – but this stat is confirmation that a quarterback as great as Mahomes will put extra effort and attention into beating a divisional rival because they know how important these games are.

Also, I’d argue that this spread is a bit too low. We’re not getting crazy line value, but my projected spread was -7, while the computer had this number at -8. Getting the second-greatest key number in the NFL (7) is a big deal. I’ll be betting the Chiefs heavily.

THURSDAY THOUGHTS: The sharps are going against me, bravely fading Patrick Mahomes off a loss. The Chiefs are -6 -114 at Bookmaker. I may lock in this pick if the vig drops a bit.

SATURDAY NOTES: The Chiefs have some slight injury concerns. Chris Jones is questionable, but was able to be limited in practice all week. Frank Clark will be out, while Charvarius Ward is questionable after hurting his quad late in the week. That said, the Chargers have it worse in the injury department. They’re already without Bryan Bulaga, Chris Harris and Justin Jones, and now they may not have Joey Bosa, who is listed as questionable after failing to practice all week. I still love the Chiefs. This will be a four- or five-unit pick depending on the status of Bosa and Jones.

TEASER ADDED: I’m going to tease the Chiefs and Browns. The trick to teasers is pulling the number down or up through seven, six and three, and that’s what we’re doing with both games. I can’t see Patrick Mahomes falling to 1-2, and I love the Browns’ matchup versus the Bears.

FINAL THOUGHTS: The Chiefs will be missing Frank Clark and Charvarius Ward, but at least Chris Jones will play. The Chargers, meanwhile, will have Joey Bosa. That’s not ideal for betting the Chiefs, but the sharps bet them at -6.5 (but not at -7). The best line is -7 -101 at Bookmaker. This will be a five-unit play.

Atlanta Falcons (0-2) at New York Giants (0-2)
Line: Giants by 2.5. Total: 47.
Sunday, Sept. 26, 1:00 PM


The Matchup. Edge: None.

If you’ve followed this site for a while, you might remember that I like to respond to my spam mails. It all started numerous years ago, when a man named Jon Wire from the “United Bank of Africoan” promised me an ATM card of some sort, so I responded as a man named Mister Compassion Chuck Norris, who was raised by wolves. The following season, I received e-mails from Richard Held and Loon Bruce, who told me I won a Facebook Award, which comes with a “lump sum pay out of (750,000.00 GBP).” Pretending to be Matthew Millen Kim, I sent out my application and fake money.

I’ve been messing around with spammers ever since, pretending to be Harvey Weinstein, Joe Biden, Ramsay Bolton and Walter White. I have plenty of Spam Mails this year, so check them out if you want to see me screw with spammers. I’ll have new ones every week this year!

NEW YORK OFFENSE: Daniel Jones somehow didn’t commit a turnover against the Redskins’ supposedly great defense. Instead, Jones sprinted right past their slow defenders, nearly leading his team to an upset victory.

Jones inexplicably didn’t see nearly as much pressure as he expected versus Washington. He’ll get far fewer defenders in his face in this matchup because the Falcons have no one who can generate a consistent pass rush, excluding Grady Jarrett. Thus, Jones will have enough time in the pocket to locate his receivers, including the disgruntled Kenny Golladay.

Meanwhile, Saquon Barkley could have his best game yet. Barkley was used sparingly in the opener, but saw more touches last Thursday. With extended rest, he’ll have his hands on the ball even more in this favorable matchup.

ATLANTA OFFENSE: The Falcons’ offense has looked terrible this year, which can’t be a surprise to anyone who paid attention to what the team did in the offseason. Julio Jones was the known departure, but Alex Mack’s defection is also having a huge impact on Atlanta. The team can’t block, which will be a problem against a fearsome Giants interior that features Leonard Williams and Dexter Williams.

Ryan will once again be harassed, which will be an issue considering that James Bradberry figures to smother Calvin Ridley. Ryan doesn’t have any other viable options besides Kyle Pitts. I believe Pitts will have a strong performance, but Ryan will otherwise target the likes of Russell Gage and Cordarrelle Patterson. Given that the Falcons have no rushing threat, this should be easy for the Giants to stop.

RECAP: The Falcons are a publicly backed underdog, which automatically makes me look at the Giants. I’m not sure why casual bettors love Atlanta so much in this game. I guess it’s easy to hate on the Giants, but think about it this way: Except for quarterback and left tackle, where are the Falcons better than the Giants, exactly? I get that there’s a disparity between Ryan and Jones, but it’s not like that’s a huge chasm, given that Ryan is on a sharp decline.

I made this spread -4, so we’re getting some line value with the host. Also, the Giants are coming off extra rest, which should theoretically help. Then again, what did Jason Garrett do with the three extra days besides master his clapping technique?

At any rate, I like the Giants a bit as a public fade and a slight value play. I’m not going to put a ton of money on Jones as a favorite, but two units sounds about right.

THURSDAY THOUGHTS: As if the Falcons didn’t have enough problems, they could be down A.J. Terrell due to a concussion. He didn’t practice Wednesday.

SATURDAY NOTES: A.J. Terrell is indeed out, so that helps the Giants’ cause. Unfortunately, that involves betting on Daniel Jones as a favorite. He’s 2-4 against the spread in that role, but beating the Falcons shouldn’t be too difficult. I’m sticking with two units on the Giants.

FINAL THOUGHTS: I still can’t believe the public is pounding the Falcons so much. The sharps aren’t as interested. The best line is Giants -2.5 -115 at both BetUS and DraftKings.

Chicago Bears (1-1) at Cleveland Browns (1-1)
Line: Browns by 7.5. Total: 44.5.
Sunday, Sept. 26, 1:00 PM


The Matchup. Edge: Browns.

Video of the Week: I planned another video this week, but Norm Macdonald passed away. This was sad news, as Macdonald was a comedic genius who wasn’t afraid to call out the elitist establishment, as you can see in this montage:



In a just world, Macdonald would’ve had his own late-night show, and if he did, I’m willing to bet it would’ve outdrawn everyone else.

CHICAGO OFFENSE: Andy Dalton suffered a non-contact injury against his former team last week. He tried to remain in the game, but all it took was one hard hit on the ensuing drive for him to be pulled in favor of Justin Fields. The first-round rookie had a solid debut, save for a strange interception he threw while up 10 late in the fourth quarter. Fields’ completion percentage wasn’t very good, but he endured two drops, one of which was in the end zone.

Fields had a much easier matchup last week. Unlike the Bengals, Cleveland has a pair of talented cornerbacks in Denzel Ward and Greg Newsome who should be able to made it difficult for Allen Robinson and Mad Eye Mooney to get open. Fields will also see plenty of pressure from Myles Garrett on the blind side. There was a time when Jason Peters would’ve stymied someone as great as Garrett, but he’s no longer the All-Pro tackle he used to be.

The weakness of the Browns’ defense is the linebacking corps, so perhaps Fields will be able to exploit that, via either his legs or passes to David Montgomery and the tight ends. Still, it’s a difficult matchup overall, especially given the state of Chicago’s offensive line.

CLEVELAND OFFENSE: Things looked scary for the Browns last week when Baker Mayfield appeared to hurt his shoulder following an interception. Mayfield, however, was able to remain in the game. Not only that; he didn’t fire any incompletions the rest of the way!

Mayfield may have his work cut out for him this Sunday because he may not have either of his starting receivers. Jarvis Landry is week-to-week, while Odell Beckham Jr. hasn’t been able to play yet. That could change this week, but who’s to say that Beckham will be 100 percent coming off his injury?

The Browns will obviously attempt to avoid their problems at receiver by pounding the ball with Nick Chubb and Kareem Hunt. This plan worked very well against the Chiefs and Texans, but Chicago’s run defense is much better than Kansas City or Houston’s.

RECAP: We’ll see what happens with the Browns’ receiving situation. If Beckham and Landry are both sidelined, I will bet the Bears because the Browns will be favored by too many points when considering that they have such a liability at one key spot. Cleveland won’t score as much as it could without its top two receivers, which will leave the back door wide open for Fields, if he even needs it.

If Beckham plays, and the practice reports are positive, I’ll probably end up being on the Browns. The advance spread on this game was Cleveland -9.5, so we’re getting nice value with the host. I realize a part of the spread adjustment has to do with the Bears using a superior quarterback, but this line really should be above -7 if the Browns have a healthy Beckham available.

THURSDAY THOUGHTS: Justin Fields will officially start this game, which is good news for Bears bettors. Even better, two Cleveland offensive linemen (Jedrick Wills, J.C. Tretter) didn’t practice Wednesday.

SATURDAY NOTES: This is my second pick switch this Saturday, and this one has much more conviction. I went from a very small lean toward the Bears to a big bet on the Browns. I love Cleveland now for several reasons. One, Odell Beckham Jr. will play, giving the Browns a viable receiving option with Jarvis Landry sidelined. Two, the Bears will likely be without Eddie Goldman and could be missing Akiem Hicks versus one of the top offensive lines in the NFL. I think Hicks will play, but he might be banged up. Three, after doing a deeper dive of the Bears’ offensive line, I’m no longer convinced they’ll be able to block the Browns at all. Four, there’s some serious sharp action coming in on Cleveland. And five, given where the Browns are in proximity to Ohio State’s campus, I’m sure the players are sick and tired of hearing about Justin Fields. They’ll be amped to beat him. My unit count (three or four) will depend on the spread (now -7.5) and the status of some injured players.

FINAL THOUGHTS: Akiem Hicks will play, but Eddie Goldman is out for the Bears, meaning Nick Chubb will have an easier time rushing against Chicago. The sharps bet the Browns at -7, but not so much at -7.5. You can still find a -7 at Bookmaker, albeit at -119 vig, which is worth it because seven is the second-most prominent number when it comes to football betting. This will be a three-unit wager because of the increased vig.

Cincinnati Bengals (1-1) at Pittsburgh Steelers (1-1)
Line: Steelers by 3. Total: 43.
Sunday, Sept. 26, 1:00 PM


The Matchup. Edge: Bengals.

The Adventures of Tom Brady’s Haircuts are complete. They may return in the future, but I had to stop them for now.

By the way, my other book is still available as well:



In this book, I talk about the top NFL Draft busts, and what would’ve happened had each team gone a different route. Also, I discuss why Roger Goodell has banned us from the NFL Combine.

PITTSBURGH OFFENSE: As if the Steelers weren’t burdened with enough injuries, news was released today that Ben Roethlisberger is dealing with a pectoral issue. Perhaps that’s a reason he struggled so much versus the Raiders. It’s unclear if Roethlisberger will play in this game, but if he does, it’s unlikely that he’ll be 100 percent.

The Steelers already had enough problems. Diontae Johnson suffered an injury on the final play of last week’s game, so his status is unknown as well. Meanwhile, the offensive line has been terrible. The unit couldn’t protect Roethlisberger at all versus the Raiders, and I expect it to struggle once again while battling an improved Cincinnati front.

The Bengals have some liabilities in their defense – namely Eli Apple – so if Roethlisberger is healthy, and if he gets time, he should be able to exploit this weakness, especially if he has Johnson available. Those are a lot of ifs, however, so I wouldn’t count on Pittsburgh’s scoring unit being productive in this game.

CINCINNATI OFFENSE: The Steelers have concerns on this side of the ball as well. Already down Stephon Tuitt, Joe Haden and Devin Bush, Pittsburgh watched Tyson Alualu and T.J. Watt leave last week’s game with injuries. Once Watt departed, that opened the floodgates for the Raiders’ offense, which suddenly became unstoppable.

It’s not clear which Pittsburgh defenders will be available, but we already know that Tuitt and Alualu will be out of the lineup. With a skeleton crew front, the Steelers won’t be able to fully take advantage of the weak Cincinnati offensive line, so Joe Burrow could have more time in the pocket than anticipated. Burrow played well last week, save for a stretch in which he threw three interceptions in as many consecutive passes, though the final one wasn’t his fault.

I like the matchups the talented Bengal receivers have against the Steelers’ secondary, especially if Haden is out of the lineup once more. Joe Mixon won’t have as much success, but his presence in the backfield will at least keep Pittsburgh’s defense honest.

RECAP: The Steelers have way too many injuries to be favored by more than a field goal against the Bengals. Again, we know they’ll be down two defensive linemen, and we also are aware that their quarterback won’t be 100 percent behind an offensive line that won’t be able to protect him.

This will put me on the Bengals. The unit count will depend on how many Steelers will be out of the lineup. Check back for updates, or follow me at @walterfootball.

THURSDAY THOUGHTS: The sharps have been pounding the Bengals into oblivion, dragging this line down to +3. I’m sure much of this has to do with Ben Roethlisberger, who didn’t practice Wednesday. I actually expect Roethlisberger to play, but he won’t be 100 percent.

SATURDAY NOTES: There’s good news for the Steelers: Devin Bush and Joe Haden will play. The bad news, however, is that T.J. Watt is out. Furthermore, Ben Roethlisberger is not 100 percent, and Pittsburgh’s defensive line will be missing two talented players (Stephon Tuitt, Tyson Alualu). There’s been a ton of sharp action on the Bengals as well, though at higher numbers (+3.5 and above). All the line value is gone at +3.

FINAL THOUGHTS: Again, T.J. Watt is out. The Bengals will be missing Tee Higgins. The sharps have been betting the Bengals aggressively all week. They’ve even been betting the Bengals at +3. The best +3 available is for -120 vig at BetUS.