NFL Picks Against the Spread: Week 3, 2021

Miami Dolphins (1-1) at Las Vegas Raiders (2-0)
Line: Raiders by 3.5. Total: 45.
Sunday, Sept. 26, 4:05 PM


The Matchup. Edge: Dolphins.

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LAS VEGAS OFFENSE: I just wrote about the Steelers experiencing issues with their quarterback’s health. The same could be said of Derek Carr, who is dealing with an ankle injury. Jon Gruden called Carr “questionable” for this game, but noted that he believes Carr will be able to play.

Carr has been exceptional so far this year, but it must be noted that he has battled two defenses with severe injury problems. The Steelers didn’t have a chance last week when they lost their fifth starter. That fifth starter happened to be a top-10 NFL player, as T.J. Watt was sorely missed. The Dolphins have nothing close to the injury woes Baltimore and Pittsburgh possess at the moment. Perhaps that’ll change during this game, knowing my luck so far this year, but it’s likely that Carr will find it difficult to find open receivers against Miami’s talented receiving corps.

Meanwhile, the Dolphins won’t have to worry about the Raider rushing attack because Josh Jacobs is expected to be sidelined once more. The Dolphins are much stronger versus the pass than the run, so the Raiders won’t be able to exploit that weakness.

MIAMI OFFENSE: Carr isn’t the only quarterback dealing with injury concerns heading into this game, as Tua Tagovailoa’s status is unknown. Tagovailoa suffered an injury on a fourth-and-1 attempt on the second drive of the game versus Buffalo.

Unlike the Marcus Mariota-less Raiders, the Dolphins have a quality backup behind their starter. As with Mariota, Jacoby Brissett is one of the top backup quarterbacks in the NFL, except he’s healthy. He also has a talented group of receivers at his disposal, so he’ll make great use of them versus the Raiders’ secondary.

That said, the Dolphins will likely have issues keeping Yannick Ngakoue and Maxx Crosby out of the backfield. They have some major offensive line woes, stemming from their decision to pass on Penei Sewell in favor of a receiver at No. 6 overall in the 2021 NFL Draft. Their tackles will be outmatched against the Raiders’ edge-rushing tandem.

RECAP: This has the potential to be my September NFL Pick of the Month. Here are eight reasons why I love the Dolphins this week:

1. There’s a huge overreaction to what the Raiders have accomplished so far. They beat the Ravens and Steelers, which looks impressive on paper, but those teams were missing a combined nine defensive starters. If the Ravens and Steelers were healthy, I believe they would’ve beaten the Raiders. At 0-2, there would be far less enthusiasm for the Raiders.

2. That enthusiasm factors into the point spread. The Raiders are favored by more than a field goal against the Dolphins, which seems incorrect, given that these teams are about even. In fact, it’s possible that Miami is the better squad. The Dolphins would also be 2-0 right now had they enjoyed the luxury of the Raiders’ schedule.

3. Speaking of the spread, the advance line was pick ’em. This spread moved four points because of last week’s results, which seems outrageous.

4. Part of the reason for the four-point line move is that the Dolphins just lost 35-0. However, they shot themselves in the foot so much. Their defense actually played well. I like betting on good teams coming off embarrassing losses.

5. Carr is injured. I love playing against quarterbacks who aren’t 100 percent because an appropriate spread adjustment isn’t made.

6. Tagovailoa is injured. This is a positive only if he’s out. I love betting good teams using their backup quarterbacks, and Brissett is one of the top reserves at his position.

7. The public is betting the Raiders as if this were free money. As of this writing, more than 80 percent of the betting action is on the host.

8. While the public is pounding the Raiders, the sharps have been betting the Dolphins.

This could end up being my September NFL Pick of the Month, depending on what happens with the injury report. I want some concern for Carr, and I don’t want Tagovailoa to play. I’ll have updates later in the week, of course. Check back, or follow me at @walterfootball.

THURSDAY THOUGHTS: Jon Gruden said Derek Carr is “good to go.” Meanwhile, Jacoby Brissett will start. Yet, this line hasn’t budged. The sharps bet the Dolphins heavily.

SATURDAY NOTES: The Dolphins are my September NFL Pick of the Month. They have no injuries outside of Tua Tagovailoa, while the Raiders will still be missing Richie Incognito and Josh Jacobs. I’m glad to see that the sharps agree with this, as this spread has plummeted greatly from the opening line of +5.5.

SUNDAY MORNING NOTES: I’m hoping for a good +4 to appear. The sharps’ betting action on the Dolphins has gotten rid of that number. I’m hoping for one prior to kickoff, but I don’t expect to see it.

FINAL THOUGHTS: There are no surprise inactives in this game, so I still love the Dolphins. I just hope that they don’t turn the ball over nonstop like the Chiefs have done today. The sharps have been betting the Dolphins all week. I found a +4 I like, which is +4 -114 at Bookmaker. Paying four cents for a minor key number is worth it.

New York Jets (0-2) at Denver Broncos (2-0)
Line: Broncos by 10. Total: 41.5.
Sunday, Sept. 26, 4:05 PM


The Matchup. Edge: Broncos.

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NEW YORK OFFENSE: Zach Wilson has been the worst of the first-round rookie quarterbacks thus far. He was horrendous against the Patriots, throwing four interceptions, three of which were abysmal passes.

There will be better days for Wilson when he’s not matched up against Bill Belichick. Unfortunately for Wilson, he has another tough mental battle versus Vic Fangio, who just frustrated Trevor Lawrence. I imagine Wilson will make plenty of mistakes.

It’s not helping Wilson that he has no running game to support him. This makes things very easy for the top defenses in the NFL, and the Broncos belong in that pantheon. Without having to worry about a ground attack, they’ll be able to tee off on Wilson, while the talented secondary smothers the Jet receivers.

DENVER OFFENSE: Teddy Bridgewater has been excellent through two games despite losing Jerry Jeudy in the opener. Things figure to remain the same here, as the Jets don’t have the personnel to limit Bridgewater’s receiving corps. Courtland Sutton, K.J. Hamler and Tim Patrick will have their way with the Jet cornerbacks, while Noah Fant will get open versus New York’s weak linebacking corps.

It would help if the Jets had Carl Lawson to pressure Bridgewater, but John Franklin-Myers is the only healthy player who can apply pressure. Bridgewater is well protected, so this won’t be an issue.

The Jets happen to be better versus the run than the pass, but they’re just a week removed from allowing a touchdown run to Damien Harris that featured seven broken tackles. It’s possible that either Javonte Williams or Melvin Gordon will have some long rushes in this contest.

RECAP: The Broncos should cruise to an easy victory, given that their great defensive-minded coach has a huge edge against a rookie quarterback. I’m not going to bet this game, however, as it might be possible that the Broncos will overlook the Jets, given that they have to battle the Ravens, Steelers, rival Raiders and Browns after this seemingly easy matchup. The energy might not be there, which could allow the Jets to sneak within the number. I’m still going to side with the Broncos, but for no units.

THURSDAY THOUGHTS: Bradley Chubb has been placed on injured reserve. That’ll matter in tougher matchups, but it won’t affect my opinion on this game.

SATURDAY NOTES: No change here. I’d be betting the Broncos if I were convinced that they won’t look past the Jets.

SUNDAY MORNING NOTES: Believe it or not, but the sharps are betting the Jets. I don’t hate it either, given that the Broncos could be looking past the Jets.

FINAL THOUGHTS: I’m still not touching this game. The sharps liked the Jets at +10.5, but not so much at +10. If you want to bet the Broncos, DraftKings has the best line at -10 -105.

Tampa Bay Buccaneers (2-0) at Los Angeles Rams (2-0)
Line: Pick. Total: 55.5.
Sunday, Sept. 26, 4:25 PM


The Matchup. Edge: None.

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TAMPA BAY OFFENSE: I have to say that I was disappointed with the Rams’ defense last week. They allowed the Colts to drive down the field repeatedly, but they were bailed out by Indianapolis failing to score a single point during two trips inside the 5-yard line.

Tom Brady certainly won’t have that issue. He has so many weapons at his disposal, so stopping all of them will be impossible for the Rams. Los Angeles just had issues dealing with Michael Pittman Jr., while Jack Doyle had some nice gains as well. What’s going to happen against Mike Evans, Chris Godwin, Antonio Brown and Rob Gronkowski? It would be one thing if the Rams could take advantage of poor blocking with Aaron Donald and the rest of the defensive front, but the Buccaneers possess one of the best blocking units in the NFL.

The Buccaneers’ weakness on this side of the ball is the running game, though it was a strength during the playoff run. Leonard Fournette and Ronald Jones haven’t looked the same this year, with Fournette seemingly packing on a few pounds, and Jones having issues with ball security. Great defenses often have success against one-dimensional offenses, but I’d say a scoring attack led by Brady and a Hall of Fame-packed receiving corps can be an exception.

LOS ANGELES OFFENSE: The only real liability the Buccaneers have is in their secondary. With Sean Murphy-Bunting injured, Tampa Bay possesses a thin group of cornerbacks that had problems covering the Dallas receivers in the opener. The team will have similar issues against the Rams.

Matthew Stafford has done a great job of integrating himself into Sean McVay’s offense, and given the connection that he has developed with Cooper Kupp, you’d think they have been playing with each other for nearly a decade. The Bears and Colts had no answer for Kupp, and I can’t imagine the Buccaneers will, given their cornerback problems. If they opt to double team Kupp, Stafford has plenty of other weapons at his disposal, namely Robert Woods, Van Jefferson and Tyler Higbee.

Like the Buccaneers, the Rams will be utilizing a one-dimensional offense. Darrell Henderson may miss this game with an injury, but that doesn’t even matter, given how stout the Buccaneers are against the run.

RECAP: I initially planned on picking the Rams as a fade of the publicly backed Buccaneers, but then I thought about it: Do I want to go against Brady from winning this game outright? The answer is no. The Rams could certainly win, but I think there’s a slightly greater chance that Brady will find a way to win this game.

As you can tell, I’m not betting this contest. It’s way too close, and the spread is about what I think it should be.

THURSDAY THOUGHTS: Antonio Brown has tested positive for a very minor illness. However, there’s a chance he could still play if he tests positive twice prior to kickoff. Any weakness for the Buccaneers would make the Rams more appealing, given that they match up well versus Tampa Bay.

SATURDAY NOTES: Antonio Brown and Jason Pierre-Paul won’t be available for the Buccaneers in this game. I was close to flipping my pick to the Rams, but I’ll stick with Tom Brady.

SUNDAY MORNING NOTES: There’s been sharp action on the Rams on Sunday morning. I’m still not touching this game.

FINAL THOUGHTS: I haven’t seen anything to convince me to bet either side. The sharps haven’t touched this either. If you want to bet the game, you can sell points at Bookmaker. I’d take the Buccaneers -2 +105 or Rams -2 +105.

Seattle Seahawks (1-1) at Minnesota Vikings (0-2)
Line: Seahawks by 2. Total: 54.5.
Sunday, Sept. 26, 4:25 PM


The Matchup. Edge: None.

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SEATTLE OFFENSE: How many deep bombs has Russell Wilson completed through two games this year? It seems like a dozen, or maybe even a hundred, doesn’t it? Wilson has been terrific so far, but then again, he’s been able to feast on easy matchups. The Xavier Rhodes-less Colts have been weak to the pass, while the Tennessee cornerback group is devoid of talent.

It’s not like things will get more difficult against the Vikings, however. Minnesota has some major problems in its secondary. Bashaud Breeland has been abysmal, while Patrick Peterson hasn’t played much better. A mediocre pass rush hasn’t helped matters. You better believe Wilson will take full advantage of this by launching more deep passes to his talented receivers.

I don’t expect nearly as much success out of the Seahawks’ rushing attack. Chris Carson has a tough matchup, so he won’t get much on the ground. Then again, Carson failed to do anything last week outside of scoring two touchdowns, and yet Seattle still notched 30 points.

MINNESOTA OFFENSE: The Vikings figure to score easily on the Seahawks as well. Seattle lost both of its starting cornerbacks from a year ago, and it showed versus the Titans. Ryan Tannehill had a great passing performance, especially considering that his primary receivers dropped four passes, while a sure-fire Julio Jones touchdown was negated by replay review. The Seahawks will have similar issues containing Justin Jefferson, Adam Thielen and K.J. Osborn, who has become a big part of Minnesota’s aerial assault.

Like the Vikings, the Seahawks don’t have the pass rush to disrupt this. The difference between the situations, however, is that the Vikings block much worse than the Seahawks do. Thus, I would expect Kirk Cousins to see more pressure than Wilson, but not by a substantial amount.

Conversely, the Vikings will have more success with their ground attack. Seattle is weak to the run – as evidenced by Derrick Henry’s brilliant second half – and Dalvin Cook should pick up where Henry left off. Cook got banged up in the Arizona contest, so if he can’t go, Alexander Mattison will be very productive.

RECAP: Once again, I love betting elite quarterbacks coming off a loss. Wilson obviously qualifies, which would explain why he’s 25-12 against the spread following a defeat following his rookie year.

Unlike Patrick Mahomes, Wilson doesn’t have to win by a touchdown or more to cover this week. He basically needs to just win outright, which I imagine he’ll do against this sub-par Minnesota squad.

THURSDAY THOUGHTS: There’s been a bit of sharp money on the Vikings, but that doesn’t bother me. Dalvin Cook missed practice Wednesday, but I can’t see the pros being too worried about that, given that Alexander Mattison is a very viable backup.

SATURDAY NOTES: I’m taking a unit off this pick because the Seahawks will be missing two offensive linemen (Brandon Shell, Ethan Pocic). However, I don’t think the Vikings have the personnel to take full advantage of this, so the biggest mismatch in this game remains the Seattle passing attack versus the Minnesota secondary. Plus, we’re still getting an elite quarterback off a loss.

SUNDAY MORNING NOTES: Dalvin Cook is likely to be out, but that doesn’t affect this pick at all because Alexander Mattison is a great backup. I still Seattle regardless.

FINAL THOUGHTS: Dalvin Cook is out, which is not a big deal. The sharps haven’t touched this game, but I still love the Seahawks. The best spread available is -2 -105 at DraftKings, followed by -2 -108 at Bookmaker.

Green Bay Packers (1-1) at San Francisco 49ers (2-0)
Line: 49ers by 3. Total: 50.5.
Sunday, Sept. 26, 8:20 PM


The Matchup. Edge: None.

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SAN FRANCISCO OFFENSE: One of the reasons why I loved the Eagles +3 over the 49ers last week was because they would be able to put the clamps on the run and force Jimmy Garoppolo to beat them. I was right about them shutting down the San Francisco ground attack, at least prior to Brandon Graham’s injury. The Eagles didn’t cover, but they outgained the 49ers and averaged 1.5 more yards per play. They were the better team, thanks in part to their big matchup edge.

The Packers don’t have that luxury. Their run defense has been horrific through two weeks. It was one thing to surrender a big outing to Alvin Kamara in a low-effort opening game, but it was another to give up big runs to D’Andre Swift and Jamaal Williams in the opening half Monday night when not needing to worry about Detroit’s pedestrian receivers. The 49ers possess a better offensive line than Detroit does – factoring in Taylor Decker’s injury – so they should be able to ram the ball down Green Bay’s throat.

This will obviously set up great passing situations for Garoppolo. He’ll connect often with George Kittle, who figures to have a tremendous night as he attempts to mirror what T.J. Hockenson accomplished against the Packers in Week 2.

GREEN BAY OFFENSE: Aaron Rodgers will have a great matchup edge on this side of the ball, depending on the injury report. If Emmanuel Moseley is sidelined, the 49ers will be missing their top two cornerbacks. This will allow Rodgers to hit open receivers when he has time in the pocket.

Whether or not Rodgers enjoys ample time to throw is a different story. His offensive line is not the same as it was at peak strength last year, and that’s been fairly evident by the amount of pressure he’s seen at times through two weeks. Things won’t get any easier versus the 49ers and their terrific defensive line.

The Packers were able to ease pressure off Rodgers with their own rushing attack Monday night. That, however, shouldn’t fly against the 49ers. With Javon Kinlaw back in the lineup following his Week 1 absence, San Francisco clamped down on the run versus the Eagles, and it should be able to limit Aaron Jones and A.J. Dillon similarly.

RECAP: The Packers have a horrible history against the 49ers, stemming from their inability to stop the run. That’s once again the case this year. I suspect this game script will follow other Green Bay-San Francisco affairs, with the 49ers establishing a huge lead by pounding the ball successfully and breaking the Packers’ will until they give up.

It wouldn’t surprise me if this is a blowout, so I’ll likely be betting on the 49ers as a fade of a publicly backed underdog. I want to see Moseley back from injury. If he is, that’ll help the unit count to be higher.

THURSDAY THOUGHTS: Nothing of note yet, outside of Emmanuel Moseley being limited in Wednesday’s practice. That’s a nice sign for San Francisco’s chances against Aaron Rodgers. Conversely, the sharps have been betting the Packers. This line is now -3 at Bovada and BetUS.

SATURDAY NOTES: Emmanuel Moseley was limited all week, so that bodes well for his chances of playing in this game. That’s huge, as the 49ers picked up a nice matchup edge in the trenches. The Packers will be without Elgton Jenkins, meaning Billy Turner will have to start at left tackle. That sounds like a disaster waiting to happen. At any rate, my unit count here will depend on the health of Moseley and also Arik Armstead, who barely practiced this week.

SUNDAY MORNING NOTES: We’re still waiting on the injury news surrounding this game. I’ll have an update Sunday evening!

FINAL THOUGHTS: Both Arik Armstead and Emmanuel Moseley are active for the 49ers, which is obviously great news for them. I like San Francisco a lot, though I couldn’t find a -3 better than -120 at BetUS or Bovada. A -3 -110 line would warrant a four-unit wager. At -3 -120, I’m betting three units on the 49ers. The sharps took the Packers at +3.5, but not +3.

Philadelphia Eagles (1-1) at Dallas Cowboys (1-1)
Line: Cowboys by 3.5. Total: 51.5.
Monday, Sept. 27, 8:15 PM


The Matchup. Edge: Cowboys.

This week on ESPN, we’re going to have awful announcers calling the shots instead the great preseason homers like Kevin Reilly, Ron Wolfley and Don Tollefson, inept ESPN guys Emmitt, Herman Edwards, and aloof people like Jay Cutler. Here’s what it would sound like if some of these dudes (and some special guests) were calling this game:

Reilly: Welcome to the city of Dallas, otherwise known as the seventh layer of Hell! This week, we have the most important game of our lifetimes since my Philadelphia Eagles beat the Patriots in the Super Bowl. My Philadelphia Eagles will demolish the Cowgirls, and all the Cowgirl fans are going home and cry to their mommies like I do when the refs cheat my Philadelphia Eagles out of a rightful win like they did against the San Francisco Giants!

Emmitt: Nora, I notice a mistaked you make when you speaked. You says the Dallas team are the Cowgirl when they really call the Cowman. I mean- the- Cowguy. That not right either. It are the opposite of girl which happens to be a boy, but I cannot for the light of me remembered what comed after Cow for the Dallas football team name.

Reilly: No, Emmitt, it’s Cowgirls, and I’d even call them another word for girls if I wouldn’t get into trouble. It begins with a “C.” But I wouldn’t want to get into trouble because Mother will make me eat broccoli instead of macaroni and cheese!

Tollefson: Kevin, I call the sex slaves I have trapped in my basement the C-word all the time, and if they don’t like it, I beat them with an umbrella because I can’t have them get out of line.

Reilly: Tolly, you call them “cooties?” Oh no, I said it, and now I won’t get macaroni and cheese! I hate broccoli! New Daddy, tell Mother to give me macaroni and cheese instead of broccoli!

Jay Cutler: No, you’re going to eat your broccoli so you grow up to be a strong man! Just kidding, I don’t care how you are when you grow up. You can have ice cream for dinner for all I care.

Reilly: Yay, New Daddy loves me so much! I love ice cream!

Joe Biden: Did someone say something about ice cream? I love ice cream. My favorite ice cream is choco choco chip. When I was younger, I used to run an ice cream- ice- ice cream- you know the thing, the thing that’s white and big and has wheels and plays the music, you know the thing. I used to come driving around on this thing playing the music. That meant the kids would come running. I used to sell these kids the ice cream, except for choco choco chip, which I saved for myself. Sometimes, I let my hand slip purposely and the ice cream would fall on the little girls’ hair, and then I sniff their hair and eat the ice cream on the hair, and then I drank their blood.

Reilly: I wish New Daddy would do fun things like that with me.

Donald Trump: Excuse me, excuse me, did anyone hear what Sleepy Joe just said!? That was one of the totally creepiest things anyone has ever said, and believe me, I know a lot about creepy things, some would say I know the most about creepy things, I wouldn’t say I know the most about creepy things, but I know a lot, and what Sleepy Joe just said was creepy as hell. It was one of the creepiest things anyone has ever said, almost as creepy as Little Hands Ryan Tannehill, has anyone seen the little hands on Ryan Tannehill? I call him Little Hands Ryan Tannehill! He’s got little hands that Little Hands Ryan Tannehill! But you know who uses his little hands for no good? Sleepy, Creepy Joe! I used to call him Sleepy Joe, but now I’m going to call him Sleepy Creepy Joe, what do you think about that? That’s the best nickname anyone has ever come up with, and everyone agrees!

Wolfley: WHAT IS WRONG WITH LITTLE HANDS? SOME SERIAL KILLERS I RESPECT COLLECT LITTLE HANDS. DON’T GIVE ME THAT LOOK, SERIAL KILLERS ARE RESPECTED INDIVIDUALS ON MY HOME PLANET.

Reilly: I would collect hands if Mother would let me, but guys, we’re getting off track here. Instead of sniffing hair and collecting hands, can we talk about things that apply to this game, like kidnapping Dak Prescott and stuffing him into the closet?

Charles Davis: Kevin, it sounds like you have the traits of a serial killer, Kevin. You were talking about sniffing little girls’ hair and collecting hands, Kevin, and now you’re talking about trapping people in basements, Kevin. Let’s talk about some other things you might be doing, Kevin. You could have pictures of people in your room, Kevin, and you could be scratching their eyes out, Kevin. You could be sneaking into people’s houses, Kevin, and then stealing their underwear, Kevin. You could be stalking them, Kevin, do you follow people around to see where they live, Kevin? You could be a 60-something-year-old who lives with his mother, Kevin, and does all of her bidding, Kevin, including when she tells you to kill people, Kevin. What do you think, Kevin? What else do you do that resembles a serial killer, Kevin?

Reilly: F**K YOU, CHARLES DAVIS, I’M NOT A SERIAL KILLER, BUT IF I WERE, I WOULD KILL YOU FIRST, AND I WOULD COLLECT YOUR HANDS AND STEAL YOUR UNDERWEAR, BUT ONLY IF MOTHER SAID IT WAS OK! We’ll be back after this!

DALLAS OFFENSE: I began the Week 3 picks by discussing a key injury that happened right before halftime. I’ll end it that way, too. The Eagles suffered a huge loss prior to intermission when Brandon Graham was carted off the field. Philadelphia did a great job of limiting San Francisco’s offense until that point, surrendering no points. Everything was different without Graham, as the 49ers had much more success rushing the ball.

Graham’s absence is going to be a big problem against the Cowboys. Dallas ran the ball down the Chargers’ throat this past week, not only with Ezekiel Elliott, but with Tony Pollard as well. Elliott and Pollard should do well against the Graham-less Eagle front, setting up favorable passing situations for Dak Prescott.

Prescott will need some help in this game. The Eagles have a pair of talented cornerbacks in Darius Slay and Steven Nelson, and there’s a chance the Cowboys won’t have two of their top three receivers. Michael Gallup was already on injured reserve, while Amari Cooper suffered an injury on Dallas’ final drive versus the Chargers.

PHILADELPHIA OFFENSE: Jalen Hurts hit some big plays in his initial home start of the 2021 season, drilling Jalen Reagor and Quez Watkins with deep shots. Unfortunately for the Eagles, the Reagor completion was negated by the receiver stepping out of bounds (and Philadelphia eventually got its field goal blocked), while the Watkins bomb led to no points because the Eagles failed on six opportunities to reach the end zone.

For every great throw, Hurts made a poor pass as well. This was not a surprise at all, given his shaky accuracy, plus the absence of All-Pro guard Brandon Brooks. While the offensive line won’t be intact because of Brooks’ injury, Hurts at least won’t have to deal with DeMarcus Lawrence, who happens to be on injured reserve. With plenty of time in the pocket, Hurts will be able to locate his young, talented receivers against Dallas’ shaky secondary.

The Eagles should get a nice receiving game from Miles Sanders and Kenneth Gainwell, too. Austin Ekeler ate up the Cowboy linebackers this past week, so Sanders and Gainwell may have similar success. Hurts will also expose the Dallas linebacking corps with his legs.

RECAP: If the Eagles were underrated heading into this past week, that’s no longer the case in the wake of the injuries to Brooks and Graham. This spread moved just half-a-point despite these two crucial absences, and I don’t think enough of an adjustment was made.

I’m going to be on the Cowboys, but there’s not a huge edge here with this spread maybe being one or 1.5 points shy of what it should be. Plus, these divisional matchups tend to be wonky, so it wouldn’t surprise me if the Eagles found a way to either pull the upset or sneak in a tight cover.

THURSDAY THOUGHTS: There’s been some sharp money on the Eagles, moving this line from +4 to +3.5.

SATURDAY NOTES: The Eagles will be missing two offensive linemen – Brandon Brooks, Jordan Mailata – against a pass rush comprised of Micah Parsons and Randy Gregory. They’ll also be down one of their top defensive players (Brandon Graham). Given that, I don’t understand why the Eagles have drawn so much sharp money. I like the Cowboys and will be betting some number of units on them.

SUNDAY MORNING NOTES: There’s been so much sharp action on the Eagles that we may see a -3 at some point. I’ll be looking out for it.

FINAL THOUGHTS: Once again, there’s plenty of sharp action on the Eagles. I don’t understand it because Dallas should be able to take advantage of the dire issues Philadelphia has on its offensive line. Both Jordan Mailata and Brandon Brooks are out, creating a big advantage for the Cowboys. That said, I wanted a -3 to make this a three-unit wager because a very likely outcome of this game is the Cowboys winning by three. I found one on Bookmaker. It was -120 vig, but that disappeared and rose to -126. I’d still say the -126 is worth it.