NFL Picks Against the Spread: Week 2, 2021

New York Giants (0-1) at Washington Redskins (0-1)
Line: Redskins by 3.5. Total: 40.5.
Thursday, Sept. 16, 8:20 PM


The Matchup. Edge: Redskins.

Week 1 Analysis: We had some horrid luck in Week 1. Consider this: Jared Goff needed an onside kick recovery, two touchdowns and a pair of two-point conversions to get a miraculous back-door cover against the 49ers. Yet, the Chiefs just needed a single two-point conversion to cover against the Browns. You’d think Patrick Mahomes would have a better chance of converting one two-point try than Goff would have a pair of them along with having his team get lucky on the onside recovery. I guess I should’ve seen it coming when Chris Godwin dropped a touchdown and then fumbled at the 1-yard line on Thursday night. And, to top it off, I had the Raiders +3 in the first half on Monday night instead of +3.5 for the game! What could’ve been a great week turned into a disaster: 7-9 (-$1,320).

Our luck can only improve moving forward, so I’m looking forward to Week 2.

A couple of things: First, I’m going to remind you every week that my wife is due around Christmas, so there will be a week in December when my picks and/or recaps could be released late. Second, I just published a book called How the 2020 MVP Was Stolen:



This book is not completely about football; it’s more political than anything, so some of you will hate it. In fact, it wouldn’t surprise me if Amazon bans it at some point, so get it while you can. Nevertheless, if you want to support the site, please consider ordering a copy!

WASHINGTON OFFENSE: Ryan Fitzpatrick suffered a hip injury in the second quarter of Sunday’s game, but all hope wasn’t lost because Taylor Heinicke played well, completing all but four passes. This shouldn’t have been a surprise because he performed at a high level against the Buccaneers in the wild-card round of the playoffs.

Heinicke will have lots of help against the Giants. He’s protected by a solid offensive line that won’t have much of an issue dealing with a New York pass rush that’s sorely lacking a dynamic edge rusher. He also has some dynamic weapons at his disposal. James Bradberry figures to smother Terry McLaurin, but Logan Thomas should do well. We just saw the Denver tight ends excel versus this New York defense.

Antonio Gibson figures to thrive as well. Melvin Gordon and Javonte Williams combined for a strong rushing performance, and Gibson is better than both of them. Gibson should have some nice gains as a receiver out of the backfield as well.

NEW YORK OFFENSE: Daniel Jones caught a break last week when it was announced that Bradley Chubb would be sidelined. His shaky offensive line wouldn’t have to deal with both Chubb and Von Miller as a result. Jones, however, won’t have that same luxury against the Redskins, who possess so many talented defensive linemen.

Chase Young, Montez Sweat, Da’Ron Payne and Jonathan Allen didn’t have the best matchup in Week 1 because they were battling a vastly improved Charger offensive line. They have everything in their favor here, as the Redskin front will overwhelm Jones’ poor blocking.

Jones, naturally, will continue to commit turnovers. He had one of his trademark fumbles during a crucial moment last week, and there’s no reason not to expect more of the same, especially when considering that his top three weapons, Saquon Barkley, Kenny Golladay and Evan Engram, are all banged up.

RECAP: I love betting on good teams using their backup quarterbacks because there’s way too much of an overreaction to the spread. Take this game, for example. The advance line on this game was Washington -5.5, yet it’s -3 now. Why did the spread drop two points? The Redskins were more impressive against their AFC West opponent than the Giants were last week; if it weren’t for Gibson’s fumble, the Redskins may have won. The Giants, conversely, were blown out versus Denver. If it weren’t for the quarterback situation, this line should’ve risen to -6, -6.5 or maybe even -7.

Instead, this line dropped to -3 even though Heinicke was an upgrade over Fitzpatrick last week. The Redskin players will be working at 110 percent to compensate for their quarterback’s absence, and they’re the much better team anyhow. The superior squad has a huge advantage on short preparation time as long as they’re not distracted, and I don’t see why Washington would be.

I love the Redskins this week, and I’ll be betting at least four units on them, barring any major injury news.

THURSDAY THOUGHTS: Saquon Barkley won’t be “unleashed” this week, so expect him to get 10 or so carries once again. This should be a blowout.

FINAL THOUGHTS: There’s some late sharp action on the Redskins, pushing this line up to -4 in some sportsbooks. However, Bookmaker still has -3.5 -108 available. The Redskins appear to be the right side, and I’ll be betting them for four units; it would’ve been five had we gotten -3. I hate not to get the -3 in what should be a low-scoring game, but the Redskins are much better than the Giants.

Our Week 2 NFL Picks will be posted all day Tuesday. Follow @walterfootball for updates.

New Orleans Saints (1-0) at Carolina Panthers (1-0)
Line: Saints by 3. Total: 44.5.
Sunday, Sept. 19, 1:00 PM


The Matchup. Edge: Panthers.

My overrated-underrated feature was posted in this spot the past couple of years. I thought it would be better if there was less clutter on this page, so I set up a new NFL Overrated and Underrated Teams page that will be updated every Monday. I have overrated and underrated teams listed there, and some may shock you!

NEW ORLEANS OFFENSE: The Saints looked like one of the most impressive teams in the NFL this past Sunday. They dominated the Packers from start to finish, as they ceaselessly pounded Alvin Kamara and Tony Jones into Green Bay’s defense. They achieved a blowout victory, but I’m not sure I would read too much into that game because it didn’t look like Green Bay was focused at all. It reminded me of a similar Packer blowout loss to the Chargers a couple of years ago when Green Bay was a far better team than San Angeles. The Chargers beat the Packers, 26-11, yet Green Bay reached the NFC Championship, while the Chargers finished 5-11.

The Panthers will be more up to the task of stopping Kamara and Jones. They’ve improved their defense in recent years, and they now possess a talented defensive line. They haven’t been tested against the rush yet because the Jets have no talent at running back, but they’ll do a better job of limiting the New Orleans running backs, so Jameis Winston will be asked to do more. Winston was flawless in the opener, but he wasn’t put into any pressure situations.

Given that the Saints don’t have much at receiver right now, besides Marquez Callaway, the Panthers should be able to take advantage of this situation. Winston was lucky an interception of his was nullified last week, and we’re not too far removed from a disastrous opening preseason performance of his, so he could suffer a setback.

CAROLINA OFFENSE: The Saints are a very flawed team, but because the Packers barely had possession of the ball last week, Aaron Rodgers wasn’t able to exploit the situation. Cornerback is a huge issue for the Saints right now because of multiple injuries at the position. This includes Marshon Lattimore, who will miss some time after signing a huge contract. New Orleans just acquired Bradley Roby, but there’s no telling if he’s in good shape because he’s coming off suspension.

Even if Roby plays well, the Saints’ corners will still be overmatched against Carolina’s talented receivers. Meanwhile, the New Orleans defensive line will be missing a couple of starters; Marcus Davenport is sidelined, while David Onyemata is suspended. It’s just Cameron Jordan right now, and the Panthers can deal with him, thanks to right tackle Taylor Moton.

I haven’t even gotten to Christian McCaffrey yet, who nearly tallied 200 net yards last week versus a tough Jet defensive line. With two starters missing from the Saints’ front, McCaffrey figures to be in for a stellar afternoon.

RECAP: The public is pounding the Saints, which is music to my ears because the Panthers look extremely appealing to me. New Orleans’ victory over the Packers was extremely misleading, given that Green Bay didn’t show up whatsoever. This has caused the spread to move 3.5 points. The advance line was a pick ’em, and now that number has moved across +3, which is the ultimate key figure in football.

Given the Saints’ massive number of injuries, one could argue that these teams are about even. Think about it: Outside of quarterback (marginally), left tackle, linebacker and free safety, where are the Saints better than the Panthers at the moment? Remember, players like Lattimore, Michael Thomas and Onyemata don’t count because they’re all sidelined.

I believe the Panthers and Saints to be very similar in talent at this time, meaning the former should probably be favored. Yet, we’re getting more than a field goal with them at home! This is incredible value, and I plan on betting Carolina accordingly.

THURSDAY THOUGHTS: It’s still early in the week, but it seems as though the sharps are betting the Panthers.

SATURDAY NOTES: We have some bad news for Panther bettors, as Marshon Lattimore might play. It was initially believed that Lattimore would be out for a while, but he practiced with a cast on his hand Friday. That said, the Saints are down several players, including two edge rushers (Marcus Davenport, Tanoh Kpassagnon) and center, plus some key cornerback depth. I like the Panthers, though I’d need Lattimore out to place a larger bet on them. I’ll have an exact unit count when the Lattimore news is announced.

FINAL THOUGHTS: Marshon Lattimore is sidelined, so I love the Panthers. The sharps did as well at +3.5, but not so much at +3. This line dropped from +3.5 to +3, but you can still get +3.5 -120 at BetUS, which I would go with because three is the most prominent key number in the NFL. This will be a four-unit wager.

Houston Texans (1-0) at Cleveland Browns (0-1)
Line: Browns by 13.5. Total: 48.
Sunday, Sept. 19, 1:00 PM


The Matchup. Edge: None.

VEGAS UPDATE: I’ll be posting how the Vegas sportsbooks have done the previous week in this spot. The highest-bet sides were 34-42 last season.

There were no heavily bet sides, so nothing to report.

Here are the teams getting the most bets last week:

49ers -7.5

Rams -7.5

Ravens -4.5

Seahawks -2.5

The teams were ****, and I imagine the books lost a lot of money on the 49ers-Lions getting middled inexplicably.

Here are the teams getting the most bets this week:

Chiefs -3

49ers -3.5

Broncos -6

Rams -4

Saints -3.5

Packers -10.5

Is there any surprise that the five highest-bet teams are all road favorites?

CLEVELAND OFFENSE: It’s amazing that the Browns blew a potential victory against the Chiefs despite barely punting. They were so efficient offensively, racking up tons of yardage via Nick Chubb and Kareem Hunt runs, and yet it didn’t matter because Patrick Mahomes took control of the game with a bit of help from Cleveland’s punter.

We may not see the Jamie Gillan very much in this game, so Cleveland fans won’t have to worry about a similar mishap. Houston is devoid of talent, but didn’t have much resistance last week against the pitiful Jaguars. The J.J. Watt-less defensive front will be pushed around easily by Cleveland’s stalwart blocking, opening up big running lanes for Chubb and Hunt. Meanwhile, Baker Mayfield will capitalize on his favorable passing opportunities by torching a horrible Houston secondary that traded away its top cornerback.

HOUSTON OFFENSE: It was shocking to see the Texans score so easily last week until I recalled how miserable Jacksonville’s defense happens to be. The Jaguars are weak on every level of their stop unit. The opposite is true about the Browns’ defense.

The Browns made some nice upgrades to their secondary this offseason. This didn’t matter very much in the second half last week when Mahomes was going nuts, but Tyrod Taylor obviously won’t be able to dominate the game in any sort of similar fashion. Taylor will face immense pressure, while his pedestrian receiving corps will be smothered by Denzel Ward and rookie Greg Newsome, who played well last week.

Meanwhile, Cleveland’s defense won’t have any sort of issue stuffing Houston’s runners in the backfield. Mark Ingram had a nice game against the Jaguars, but you, yes, the person reading this, could start at running back against Jacksonville and post quality stats.

RECAP: The Browns are so much better than the Texans that this game could easily turn into a blowout. However, the spread is high, and we’re getting no line value as a result. Also, I wonder if the Browns will be flat after putting everything into the Kansas City game. There’s a chance we may not see 100-percent effort from them. That’s enough to keep me off of them, but I will pick them for office-pool purposes.

THURSDAY THOUGHTS: Odell Beckham Jr. has already been ruled out, but that won’t have any impact on my pick. Some Cleveland offensive linemen missed Wednesday’s practice, so that’s way more significant. That said, it could just be a rest day for them.

SATURDAY NOTES: There’s a chance I’ll be betting on the Texans. The Browns could be down two starting offensive lineman and their top backup in that area. Left tackle Jedrick Wills missed practice all week, while center J.C. Tretter had just one limited practice Friday. Both are listed as questionable, though Tretter is expected to play. If both are out, I’ll be betting multiple units on the Texans.

FINAL THOUGHTS: I was wondering if the Browns would be missing either Wills or Tretter after both barely practiced during the week. Both will be active, so I will not be betting the Texans. This will remain a non-bet pick on the Browns. If you want to bet this game, you can get Cleveland -13.5 -108 at Bookmaker. The sharps haven’t touched this game.

Cincinnati Bengals (1-0) at Chicago Bears (0-1)
Line: Bears by 2. Total: 44.5.
Sunday, Sept. 19, 1:00 PM


The Matchup. Edge: None.

HATE MAIL: I will be posting hate mail here. We got a bit this week:



I’ve noticed a correlation between those who don’t have a sense of humor, and those who lead absolutely miserable lives. It turns out that they’re the same people!

Here’s someone else who leads a miserable life:



I’ve also noticed that those leading miserable lives with no sense of humor also tend to be white supremacists with guilty consciences.

Here’s another trait they have:



They also blindly believe everything the media tells them. I expose the media in my new book, How the 2020 MVP Was Stolen, which will be banned soon!

CINCINNATI OFFENSE: It wasn’t clear if Joe Burrow was healthy during the early stages of the Minnesota game because he barely had any time in the pocket during the opening quarter. However, he finally was given some protection, and he made the most out of it with some nice throws to Ja’Marr Chase and Tee Higgins. Burrow ran hot and cold in the opener, but did well overall.

It’s safe to say that Burrow will have a tougher time in this matchup. His offensive line is extremely suspect, and I don’t trust it to protect against Khalil Mack, Akiem Hicks and the rest of the Chicago defensive front. His receivers have plus matchups against the cornerbacks because the Bears completely neglected that position during the offseason, but it won’t matter very much if Burrow has to hurry his throws.

The offensive line also figures to struggle in regard to opening up running lanes for Joe Mixon, especially if Eddie Goldman returns. The Bears missed the monstrous run stuffer in the opener, so their chances of clamping down on Mixon will improve if he returns.

CHICAGO OFFENSE: Many criticized Andy Dalton for not attempting passes deeper than 10 yards in the opener, but could you blame him? Chicago’s offensive line, which wasn’t good to begin with, lost Jason Peters to an injury during the loss to the Rams. There’s no way the Bears could’ve given Dalton ample time versus Aaron Donald and company.

The Bengals obviously don’t possess the defensive line talent the Rams own, but they have some skilled players up front like Trey Hendrickson, Sam Hubbard and D.J. Reader. Cincinnati’s front dominated the Vikings’ blockers in the opener, and they should have similar success versus the Bears. David Montgomery will pick up chunks of yardage at times, but Dalton won’t have adequate protection.

That said, the Bengals are starting Eli Apple at cornerback right now with Trae Waynes sidelined. Apple gave the Vikings a free touchdown last week with two blunders, making me wonder how Cincinnati didn’t obtain a better third outside cornerback than Apple. If Apple starts again, Dalton will have fun targeting that side of the field.

RECAP: I don’t have much interest in this game, but I’m leaning toward the Bears. We’re getting the slightest bit of line value with the Bears, who were -3.5 on the advance spread. That’s only half of a point, but three is the greatest key number in football.

Also, it’s worth noting that the public is betting the Bengals. I like fading publicly backed underdogs, but the thought of betting Dalton as a favorite is very unappealing. I suppose going against publicly backed dogs never seems like the logical move; otherwise, everyone would be betting the favorite.

THURSDAY THOUGHTS: I’m not sure why, but there’s been lots of sharp money on the Bengals, pushing this line off +3. I still have no interest in betting either side.

SATURDAY NOTES: Jason Peters is questionable, while Larry Borom is out this week. If Peters is sidelined, that would mean that three of the Bears’ top four tackles will be missing. In that case, I think I’d switch to Cincinnati.

TEASER: Teasers are only profitable if you go through three, six and seven. Cincinnati +1.5 to +7.5 is the only side that qualifies this week. My other leg will be Steelers -6.5 to -0.5. We’re not getting seven, which is not ideal, but I have a hard time seeing the Raiders winning in Pittsburgh off an overtime game on a short week.

FINAL THOUGHTS: I was considering a switch to the Bengals if Jason Peters were sidelined, but he’s in the lineup. The sharps like the Bengals, but I’d rather take the value with Chicago. I’m not betting this game. If you do, I’d sell the half point and bet Chicago -2.5 -103 at Bookmaker for the lower vig.

Las Vegas Raiders (1-0) at Pittsburgh Steelers (1-0)
Line: Steelers by 6. Total: 46.5.
Sunday, Sept. 19, 1:00 PM


The Matchup. Edge: Steelers.

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PITTSBURGH OFFENSE: The Steelers struggled to move the chains against the Bills for most of Sunday’s game, but they eventually broke through, thanks to some great catches by the talented receivers. Still, Pittsburgh has an issue, which is the offensive line. The front struggled to block versus the Bills, and that could be an issue that persists in this contest.

The Raiders aren’t usually renown for having a great pass rush, but they have two elite edge rushers, Yannick Ngakoue and Maxx Crosby, both of whom caused havoc for the Ravens on Monday night. The Steelers have a pair of lackluster tackles – though rookie Dan Moore has potential – but they won’t be able to hold up against Ngakoue and Crosby.
,br> The Raiders, however, have many liabilities on this side of the ball. I don’t think they can stop the run very well, while their linebacking corps can’t cover. Najee Harris should have some nice opportunities, while the talented receivers will be able to get open.

LAS VEGAS OFFENSE: The Raiders will have the same issue as the Steelers, only it’ll be worse. Their offensive line, save for left tackle Kolton Miller, performed horribly against the Ravens, a team that doesn’t even boast a good edge rush. The Steelers have T.J. Watt, of course, but Melvin Ingram began his Pittsburgh career with a terrific start by harassing Josh Allen frequently. The Raiders will also have to deal with Cameron Heyward, who will be a huge problem for the poor interior of the Raider line. Derek Carr won’t have any sort of time in the pocket, while Josh Jacobs will struggle to find running room once again.

Carr eventually overcame Baltimore’s pressure by torching the Ravens’ secondary in the second half and overtime. However, the Steelers have better personnel in their defensive backfield than Baltimore did Monday night. Remember, the Ravens were down multiple cornerbacks, while Pittsburgh is completely healthy on its back end. The Steeler cornerbacks held up extremely well versus Buffalo’s wideouts in Week 1. I don’t expect much from any of the Raider pass-catchers, save for Darren Waller, who can’t be stopped unless he’s dropping passes.

RECAP: Fading West Coast teams playing 1 p.m. games on the East Coast has been a losing proposition – unless you’re talking about Jon Gruden. While teams have improved in this regard in recent years – 26-13 against the spread over the past three seasons – Gruden is just 3-8 against the spread in these situations. Amazingly, if you exclude the Raiders, West Coast teams playing early East Coast affairs are 23-5 against the spread in that span!

This is an even tougher situation for the Raiders because they had a Monday night game on the West Coast that went into overtime, so they’ll be traveling across the country to play an early game on short rest. It might be too difficult for the Raiders to bounce back from an emotional, overtime victory to perform well in this spot.

I was even favoring the Steelers to begin with, so I like this even more. I don’t trust the Raiders’ blocking against the stellar Pittsburgh front seven, so I expect the Steelers to win by a touchdown or more.

THURSDAY THOUGHTS: Richie Incognito missed practice Wednesday and Thursday, which doesn’t bode well for the Raiders, given that they’ll have to battle the Steelers’ stalwart defensive front.

SATURDAY NOTES: Richie Incognito is out, so the Raiders won’t be able to block the Steelers whatsoever. I’m increasing the unit count to three.

FINAL THOUGHTS: This is disappointing. It looked like the sharps were on the Steelers earlier in the week when this spread rose to -6.5, but they’ve been betting the Raiders on Sunday morning. The reason for this is two shocking injuries. Joe Haden and Devin Bush, both of whom were expected to play, were ruled out for this game. This doesn’t bother me very much because those are isolated injuries at their respective positions. The Steelers should still be able to dominate this contest with their pass rush versus the banged-up Raider offensive line. The best spread I see is Steelers -5.5 -108 at Bookmaker.

Buffalo Bills (0-1) at Miami Dolphins (1-0)
Line: Bills by 3.5. Total: 48.
Sunday, Sept. 19, 1:00 PM


The Matchup. Edge: None.

If you missed it, I have an NFL Betting Props page, where I posted two new season total picks this past week. I’ll be adding to it as the season progresses!

Also, Confidence Pool Picks will return. They’ll be posted by Wednesday morning each week!

BUFFALO OFFENSE: What in the world happened to Josh Allen last week? Pittsburgh’s stellar pass rush and cornerback play had something to do with it, but Allen was still expected to play much better than he did. He heaved numerous inaccurate passes and made a couple of poor decisions. This Allen resembled the one who was inconsistent in 2019, rather than the one who dominated the NFL in 2020.

It won’t get much easier for the Buffalo receivers because the Dolphins possess numerous talented cornerbacks, but Allen should at least have more time in the pocket. Miami lacks the dynamic, edge-rushing talent that the Steelers possess. Emmanuel Ogbah is a good player who thrived last week, but he’s not on the level of T.J. Watt, or even Melvin Ingram.

It’s also worth noting that the Dolphins continue to struggle against the run. They had that problem last year, and they couldn’t stop Damien Harris in the opener. The Bills don’t run very well, but perhaps they’ll have Zack Moss active this week to take advantage of this liability. Allen should be able to do so with his legs as well.

MIAMI OFFENSE: Tua Tagovailoa had an uneven performance in his 2021 debut. He put together some nice drives, but made some mistakes, including a ridiculously stupid interception that would’ve cost his team the victory had Harris not fumbled in the red zone on the ensuing possession.

Tagovailoa was going up against Bill Belichick, so he won’t have to match wits with the top coach in the NFL again this week. That said, playing against Sean McDermott is no walk in the park. McDermott should be able to force Tagovailoa into at least one turnover, while the pass rush will create havoc in the backfield, just like it did versus Pittsburgh.

The Bills, however, have some liabilities on this side of the ball the Dolphins can exploit. I don’t know what happened to Levi Wallace, but the cornerback was torched often against Pittsburgh. Miami has some great receiving talent that can exploit this matchup.

RECAP: I wasn’t sure which side I’d fall on at +3, but with this move to +3.5, I’m picking the Dolphins. Unless Allen completely reverts to 2020 form, which is certainly possible, I believe that the most likely outcomes of this game are the Bills winning by three, and then the Dolphins winning by three. We get both sides with this +3.5.

That said, I’m not making this pick with any sort of conviction. I could easily see Buffalo bouncing back with a great game. This is one of my least-favorite contests of the week from a betting perspective because there seem to be way too many unknowns on both sides.

THURSDAY THOUGHTS: No change here. I didn’t see any major injuries to either team, and the spread hasn’t moved.

SATURDAY NOTES: The main news here is the weather forecast. It will be 90, partly cloudy and humid in Miami this Sunday afternoon. It’s going to feel like playing in a sauna, and it won’t help the Bills that the sun will be beating down on them in their royal blue jerseys. This is a nice advantage for the Dolphins.

FINAL THOUGHTS: I’m still not betting this game. The sharps haven’t touched this either. The best spread for the Bills is -3.5 -103 at Bookmaker. For the Dolphins, you can get +3.5 -105 at Bovada.

Los Angeles Rams (1-0) at Indianapolis Colts (0-1)
Line: Rams by 4. Total: 47.5.
Sunday, Sept. 19, 1:00 PM


The Matchup. Edge: Rams.

If you’d like to support this site outside of buying my books or referring people to it, you can check out the WalterFootball Merch Store as well! I can design shirts rather easily, so if you have any new ideas, let me know in the comments below.

LOS ANGELES OFFENSE: It was great to see Matthew Stafford play with strong coaching for the first time in his career. Stafford spent his entire professional football life rotting away in Detroit, and he seems like a new man under Sean McVay.

Stafford torched the Bears with some deep throws, which doesn’t bode well for the Colts, given how weak they were to Russell Wilson’s bombs in Week 1. They sorely missed Xavier Rhodes in the opener, so his potential return would be huge. If Rhodes is out again, it’s difficult to imagine the Colts slowing down the Rams at all, especially given how well protected Stafford happens to be. Kwity Paye is a promising edge rusher, but I like Andrew Whitworth to win that battle.

INDIANAPOLIS OFFENSE: The poor secondary was just part of the equation pertaining to why the Colts lost by double digits to the Seahawks. The other portion was the poor play of the offensive line. Several members of the blocking unit, especially the left tackle, struggled even though the Seahawks don’t have much of a pass rush.

The Rams, obviously, can get to the quarterback extremely well. Everyone knows about Aaron Donald, but third-year edge rusher Justin Hollins had a surprising performance versus the Bears. He has a great matchup edge against the Colts’ third-string left tackle. He and Donald will create major problems for Carson Wentz, who once again won’t have much of a chance to connect with his T.Y. Hilton-less receiving corps.

There’s a glimmer of hope for the Colts on this side of the ball. David Montgomery was able to rip off chunks of yardage Sunday night, so perhaps Jonathan Taylor will have similar success. Then again, it almost seemed like the Rams were baiting Chicago into running, so I’m not even sure if Taylor will fare all that well.

RECAP: The advance spread on this game was Rams -3, and now the line is -4. I like obtaining spread value, but I honestly expected more of an adjustment. The Rams looked great in their first game, while the Colts were blown out at home by what is likely a weaker team from the same division.

Perhaps my mind will change if Rhodes returns this week, but I’m currently siding with the Rams. They’re the No. 3 team in my NFL Power Rankings, and they have multiple matchup edges in this game, as detailed earlier. That said, I’m not too keen on betting this game because the Rams could be distracted with a matchup against the Buccaneers looming next week.

THURSDAY THOUGHTS: Darius Leonard, Braden Smith and Xavier Rhodes all missed practice Wednesday and Thursday. This is a huge development, and yet there’s been some sharp money on the Colts.

SATURDAY NOTES: Leonard and Quenton Nelson will play, but according to beat writer Mike Chappell, neither is 100 percent. Meanwhile, Smith and Rhodes are sidelined. There’s a chance Eric Fisher could play, but if he can’t, the Colts will be in huge trouble versus the Rams’ defensive line.

FINAL THOUGHTS: I loved the Rams earlier in the week, but Eric Fisher will play, meaning the Colts won’t have the offensive line issues I believed they would endure. The sharps haven’t been betting this game very much, and I’m not going to wager on it either. If you still like the Rams, the best number I see is -4 -110 at BetUS and Bovada.

San Francisco 49ers (1-0) at Philadelphia Eagles (1-0)
Line: 49ers by 3. Total: 49.
Sunday, Sept. 19, 1:00 PM


The Matchup. Edge: Eagles.

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I’ve been messing around with spammers ever since, pretending to be Harvey Weinstein, Joe Biden, Ramsay Bolton and Walter White. I have plenty of Spam Mails this year, so check them out if you want to see me screw with spammers. I’ll have new ones every week this year!

PHILADELPHIA OFFENSE: Watching Jared Goff drive down the field, score two touchdowns, and hit a pair of two-point conversions was an absolutely disgusting way to begin the season. Yet, upon reviewing what actually occurred, it makes sense that Goff caught fire. He struggled early because of his banged-up offensive line, but when the 49ers lost top cornerback Jason Verrett to injury, Goff caught fire.

Fellow cornerback Emmanuel Moseley was already out, so the 49ers had severe issues at the position with Verrett sidelined. If Moseley can’t play this week, those problems will persist against Philadelphia’s young, but talented receiving corps. San Francisco signed Dre Kirkpatrick to help remedy the situation, but Kirkpatrick was torched often last year in Arizona. Given that Jalen Hurts is well protected by a healthy offensive line, he should have time to find his receivers if the 49ers are missing both corners.

The Eagles should have success with the run as well. D’Andre Swift and Jamaal Williams ripped off some nice rushes last week, thanks in part to Javon Kinlaw’s absence. The 49ers didn’t even have to worry about Goff’s scrambles, so that’s another element they’ll need to defend.

SAN FRANCISCO OFFENSE: Verrett wasn’t the only prominent 49er to go down in Week 1, as Raheem Mostert hurt his knee in the opening half. As someone who played Mostert in most of his DraftKings lineups, this upset me greatly. Ultimately, it didn’t matter very much for the 49ers because they had capable backups running behind a stout offensive line, and the Lions couldn’t do anything to stop them.

The Eagles are much better versus the run than the Lions are. They clamped down on Mike Davis in the opener, and they should be able to limit Elijah Mitchell and Trey Sermon.

That said, the 49ers have a huge matchup edge in this game, and that would be George Kittle versus Philadelphia’s horrible linebacking corps. With Jimmy Garoppolo protected well, he’ll have plenty of opportunities to connect with his All-Pro tight end.

RECAP: As long as things don’t improve on the injury front for the 49ers, I’ll be on the home underdog. The Eagles are the healthier team, and they match up well against San Francisco because they can stop the run well and force Garoppolo to beat them.

This matchup will be even better for the Eagles if the 49ers are missing their top two cornerbacks. I’m looking forward to seeing the injury report, as this could end up being a huge bet on Philadelphia.

THURSDAY THOUGHTS: Emmanuel Moseley missed practice Wednesday and was very limited Thursday, which is not a good start to the week for San Francisco’s secondary.

SATURDAY NOTES: Moseley is out, which means the 49ers’ starting cornerbacks will be Deommoodore Lenoir and Dontae Johnson as they attempt to stop the Eagles’ young, athletic receivers. The Eagles have the defense to shut down San Francisco’s running game and the tackles to keep the edge rushers at bay, so they match up well versus the 49ers. This is going to be a big play on the Eagles for me, matching what the sharps are doing. In fact, I’m locking this in now as a five-unit play because there’s a chance the sharps could drop this to +2.5. The best line is +3 -115 at BetUS, Bovada and DraftKings.

FINAL THOUGHTS: I already locked in the Eagles for five units, and I’m happy about my decision because the vig has gotten expensive everywhere except DraftKings, which still has -115 available. The sharps have been betting Philadelphia as well.

Denver Broncos (1-0) at Jacksonville Jaguars (0-1)
Line: Broncos by 6. Total: 45.
Sunday, Sept. 19, 1:00 PM


The Matchup. Edge: Broncos.

Video of the Week: I’m sure many of you have seen this already, but my wife didn’t, so there’s a chance you missed it. This is the scene from Wisconsin’s stadium when they jumped around for the first time in two years:



This is one of the coolest things I’ve ever seen. Sure, it used to happen all the time, but it’s the first time the Wisconsin students/fans were able to do this since the pandemic came to an end. Even better, there wasn’t a single, useless mask in sight. It’s so great that we’ve finally returned to normalcy after what transpired in 2020.

JACKSONVILLE OFFENSE: Trevor Lawrence had some positive and negative moments in his NFL debut. He never had a chance, however, because his teammates dropped a whopping six passes in the opening half. Lawrence was eventually picked thrice, with two of the interceptions being the result of him being confused by Lovie Smith’s zone scheme.

If Lawrence struggled against a Houston defense devoid of talent, how will he function against the Broncos’ elite stop unit? Vic Fangio is an excellent defensive coach, and he’ll have some looks to confuse Lawrence. Furthermore, Jacksonville’s pedestrian offensive line, which couldn’t pass protect against the Texans, will have no hope of keeping their quarterback clean against Von Miller and Bradley Chubb.

The Broncos are stout against the run as well, so I wouldn’t expect much out of James Robinson. Then again, neither does Urban Meyer because he gave Carlos Hyde about the same number of touches for some reason. Meyer might be the only person in America who still thinks Hyde is a viable NFL running back – and that includes Hyde himself!

DENVER OFFENSE: The Broncos lost Jerry Jeudy to a multi-week injury in the opener, but his absence won’t matter much in this game. Denver has plenty of other receiving talent, and the Jaguars’ sorry secondary can’t stop anyone anyway.

The Jaguars don’t have any sort of a pass rush either, so Teddy Bridgewater will have time to connect with his other receivers. He’s well protected, so there shouldn’t be any issues moving the chains aerially in this matchup.

Then again, Bridgewater may not need to do much because the Broncos could just pound the rock. The awful Jacksonville defense couldn’t even stop Mark Ingram last week, so how will it deal with Javonte Williams and Melvin Gordon?

RECAP: I like fading huge line moves from week to week, but that won’t be the case in this game. When I saw the advance line of Denver -3, I thought that was way too small. The move to -6 is a big one, but I believe it to be an appropriate adjustment.

I would’ve loved Denver at -3. There’s not much value at -6, but I still like them. Fangio has a big edge over Lawrence, as he’ll be the latest sharp-minded defensive coach to rattle a rookie quarterback. I may end up betting this game for a unit or two, depending on the injury report.

THURSDAY THOUGHTS: I’ve seen nothing relevant on the injury report yet, and this line hasn’t moved. This is still a small play on the Broncos.

SATURDAY NOTES: I wanted a close look at the weather report because like the Bills-Dolphins game, the conditions had the potential to be like a sauna. However, it’s going to be 81 and cloudy with a 20-percent chance of rain, so the Broncos have no issues in that regard.

FINAL THOUGHTS: There’s been no sharp action on this game, which might be a good sign for the Broncos. I’m going to bet a couple of units on them, as I expect Vic Fangio to dominate Trevor Lawrence. The best line is -6 -108 at Bookmaker.

New England Patriots (0-1) at New York Jets (0-1)
Line: Patriots by 6. Total: 43.
Sunday, Sept. 19, 1:00 PM


The Matchup. Edge: Patriots.

The Adventures of Tom Brady’s Haircuts are complete. They may return in the future, but I had to stop them for now.

By the way, my other book is still available as well:



In this book, I talk about the top NFL Draft busts, and what would’ve happened had each team gone a different route. Also, I discuss why Roger Goodell has banned us from the NFL Combine.

NEW ENGLAND OFFENSE: Mac Jones had a bit of a slow start in his debut, but caught fire in the second quarter. He made a number of tremendous throws despite battling Brian Flores’ defense. It helped that Jones was well protected behind a stout offensive line, but he deserves lots of credit for a terrific first game.

Jones should be even better in this contest. The Jets have a number of liabilities on their defense, especially in the secondary. Their cornerbacks aren’t very good, while their safety group took a hit with Lamarcus Joyner suffering a season-ending injury. The Patriots don’t have the best receiving talent to exploit this matchup, but unless Jones regresses in his second game, he should be able to keep the chains moving in this contest.

Running the ball will be more difficult, and not just because Bill Belichick will run out of running backs if he shuns those who lose fumbles. The Jets’ defensive line did a solid job against Christian McCaffrey’s runs last week, so I wouldn’t expect much out of Damien Harris.

NEW YORK OFFENSE: Speaking of Belichick, he has the supreme matchup in this game. Belichick is the best coach in the NFL, and he almost always has success against young quarterbacks. I wouldn’t expect anything otherwise in this matchup, as Belichick will brew some confusing looks for Zach Wilson.

Wilson did well in his debut against the Panthers, but drops and poor blocking were both issues. Wilson didn’t have time in the pocket last week when Mekhi Becton was on the blind side, and now Becton is out for several weeks. The Patriots will put plenty of pressure on him as a result, as they don’t exactly have to worry about the Jets’ lackluster ground attack.

RECAP: Here’s a big spread move. The advance line was New England -3.5, and yet now it’s -5.5 despite the Patriots coming off a loss. While New England was defeated last week, it was effectively a victory because Harris fumbled inside the red zone at the end of regulation. Thus, that game is correctly being treated as a Patriot win.

I’d love to take the “value” with the Jets, but I can’t because of the Wilson-Belichick matchup. Belichick just has too much of an upper hand in this battle. I know Mac Jones is going up against Robert Saleh, but Saleh just doesn’t have the horses to rattle the rookie quarterback, especially with Lamarcus Joyner sidelined.

I’m going to side with the Patriots for what might be a small bet. I’m going to need more on the injury report from the Jets to place a larger wager on New England, however.

THURSDAY THOUGHTS: Trent Brown missed Wednesday’s practice, but the Patriots have quality depth up front, and it’s not like the Jets have the edge rush to take advantage of this anyway.

SATURDAY NOTES: It’s unclear if Trent Brown will play, as he was limited in Friday’s practice. Either way, I don’t anticipate betting this game because the spread is so inflated.

FINAL THOUGHTS: Jamison Crowder is a surprise inactive for the Jets, but that won’t affect my selection because this spread is too inflated. Still, if I had to, I’d bet the Patriots, even at this number. If you want to wager on them, -6 -103 is the best number at Bookmaker. The sharps haven’t touched this game.