NFL Picks Against the Spread: Week 2, 2021

NFL Picks (Preseason 2021): 6-5 (-$350)
NFL Picks (Week 1, 2021): 7-9 (-$1,320)

2021 NFL Picks: 13-14 (-$1,670)
NFL Picks (2020): 138-124-7 (+$9,350)
NFL Picks (2019): 148-128-9 (+$1,200)
NFL Picks (2018): 140-134-12 (+$845)
NFL Picks (2017): 137-147-10 (-$4,300)
NFL Picks (2016): 148-127-10 (+$780)
NFL Picks (2015): 133-138-10 (-$3,215)
NFL Picks (2014): 143-133-7 (-$1,885)
NFL Picks (2013): 144-131-8 (+$7,825)
NFL Picks (2012): 130-145-8 (-$7,445)
NFL Picks (2011): 137-133-12 (-$1,335)
NFL Picks (2010): 144-131-8 (+$5,880)
NFL Picks (2009): 151-124-9 (+$4,235)
NFL Picks (2008): 136-125-6 (+$6,105)
NFL Picks (2007): 162-135-10 (+$3,585)
If you don’t quite understand the line, total or anything else, go to my Sports Betting FAQ.

Vegas betting action updated Sept. 19, 11:30 a.m. ET. Follow @walterfootball for updates.


Go to Week 2 NFL Picks – Early Games







Minnesota Vikings (0-1) at Arizona Cardinals (1-0)
Line: Cardinals by 3.5. Total: 50.5.

Sunday, Sept. 19, 4:05 PM


The Matchup. Edge: Cardinals.

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ARIZONA OFFENSE: I bet the Cardinals at 50/1 to win the Super Bowl and Kyler Murray to claim the MVP trophy at 16/1, and I’m thrilled with what I saw in the opener. Murray, now extremely well protected with Rodney Hudson at center, is blossoming into one of the top quarterbacks in the NFL. He has plenty of weapons at his disposal, making him unstoppable.

The Vikings have defensive issues, as no one besides Danielle Hunter can put pressure on the quarterback. Murray will have all day to throw, and he’ll expose some of the weaknesses in Minnesota’s defense. One of the prominent issues for the Vikings on this side of the ball is Bashaud Breeland, who was completely embarrassed against the Bengals last week. He will likely be a huge liability in this contest.

I didn’t expect Minnesota’s secondary to perform well, but I at least thought the run defense would handle Joe Mixon. That was not the case, as Mixon thrived in the opener. Chase Edmonds and James Conner will pick up some yardage and help the Cardinals maintain possessions while presumably nursing a lead in the second half.

MINNESOTA OFFENSE: The Vikings have one of the worst offensive lines in the NFL, thanks to Riley Reiff’s departure and Christian Darrisaw’s injury. They made the Bengals’ defensive front look like the Purple People Eaters. If they couldn’t block the Bengals, what will happen versus an Arizona defensive line comprised of two future Hall of Famers?

Chandler Jones was a maniac in the opener, easily blowing by Taylor Lewan for five sacks on Ryan Tannehill. If he was able to do that to Lewan, what will he accomplish versus Rashod Hill? Kirk Cousins will be in trouble in this game, though one of his receivers has a positive matchup versus cornerback Marco Wilson.

Cousins won’t be able to lean on his rushing attack. Dalvin Cook is great, but Derrick Henry found no running room versus Jones and J.J. Watt this past Sunday. I expect Cook’s fate to be similar.

RECAP: We had some bad beats in Week 1, but those weren’t bad decisions. The one thing I regret is not betting the Cardinals. I loved them heading into the year, but I was scared off by their cornerback situation.

I’m not making the same mistake again. It sucks that we lost some value per the advance line – Arizona was -3 a week ago in this game – but I don’t think enough of an adjustment was made. My personal line is -9.5, while the computer model has it at -8. The Cardinals are one of the top five teams in the NFL, while the Vikings just lost to the Bengals.

This is one of my top plays of the week. Arizona’s defensive line has such a huge mismatch in this contest, so I’m expecting another blowout victory for the Cardinals.

THURSDAY THOUGHTS: I don’t understand it, but the Vikings are getting some sharp action. It reminds me of last week when the sharps were nonsensically betting the Giants versus the Broncos. Arizona is the obvious side, just like Denver was last week.

SATURDAY NOTES: I was hoping Eric Kendricks would be sidelined after missing practice the first two days of the week, but he’ll play. His absence would’ve pushed this into Pick of the Month territory, but I still love Arizona.

SUNDAY MORNING NOTES: After some sharp action on the Vikings earlier in the week, some pro money has come in on Arizona on Sunday morning. Perhaps this is a sign that Kelvin Beachum will play. This line has risen to -4 in most places, but I’ll be patient and try to find the best spread.

FINAL THOUGHTS: There wasn’t much sharp action on the Cardinals after all. This line has remained at -3.5 everywhere. There is good news for Arizona, however, as Kelvin Beachum will play. The best line is -3.5 -107 at Bookmaker.




The Motivation. Edge: None.
No edge found.


The Spread. Edge: Cardinals.

WalterFootball.com Calculated Spread: Cardinals -9.5.
Westgate Advance Point Spread: Cardinals -3.
Computer Model: Cardinals -8.
DVOA Spread: .




The Vegas. Edge: Vikings.
Who doesn’t want to bet the Cardinals at this price?

Percentage of money on Arizona: 67% (62,000 bets)


The Trends. Edge: Vikings.
  • Mike Zimmer is 66-47 ATS as head coach of the Vikings.
  • Opening Line: Cardinals -4.5.
  • Opening Total: 50.5.
  • Weather: Dome.



  • Week 2 NFL Pick: Cardinals 38, Vikings 24
    Cardinals -3.5 -107 (5 Units) – Bookmaker — Incorrect; -$535
    Over 51 (0 Units) — Correct; $0
    Cardinals 34, Vikings 33




    Atlanta Falcons (0-1) at Tampa Bay Buccaneers (1-0)
    Line: Buccaneers by 13. Total: 52.

    Sunday, Sept. 19, 4:05 PM


    The Matchup. Edge: Buccaneers.

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    TAMPA BAY OFFENSE: It’s truly amazing what Tom Brady is doing at 44. Showing that he’s still one of the best players in the NFL, he torched the Cowboys mercilessly in the opener. He won by just two points, but the margin would’ve been much greater had Chris Godwin not dropped a touchdown and then fumbled at the 1-yard line.

    Godwin is just one of several Buccaneer skill players who will thrive in this easy matchup. With no pressure in his face – Atlanta has no pass rush whatsoever – Brady will shred through the Falcons’ anemic secondary. Atlanta couldn’t even contain Jalen Hurts and his young receivers last week, so how will it possibly combat Godwin, Mike Evans, Antonio Brown and Rob Gronkowski?

    ATLANTA OFFENSE: The one disappointing aspect of Tampa’s victory last week was its pass rush. The unit dominated the Chiefs in the Super Bowl, yet was invisible against a Dallas front missing Zack Martin.

    I suspect we’ll see a better performance from the Buccaneer pass rush. The Falcons lost Alex Mack this offseason and have one of the worst offensive lines in the NFL as a result. Matt Ryan simply had no chance against the Eagles last week, and I suspect he’ll have similar issues in this contest. Calvin Ridley has a nice matchup, but it won’t matter if Ryan doesn’t have the time in the pocket to locate him. Ryan also won’t be able to lean on Mike Davis at all, given that the Buccaneers just completely shut down Ezekiel Elliott.

    RECAP: This spread may seem high, but it might not be high enough. I made this line Tampa Bay -14, while the computer model has it at -13. Getting -12.5 isn’t good line value by any means, but at least it’s something.

    I have no desire to bet this game because I’ve seen Ryan orchestrate some ridiculous back-door shenanigans as a large underdog over the years, but I’m still on Tampa. Perhaps that Ryan stuff is a relic of the past, given that he has lost Mack and Julio Jones.

    THURSDAY THOUGHTS: Nothing new here. I don’t anticipate betting this game unless there are some surprise injuries.

    SATURDAY NOTES: Carlton Davis injured his hamstring late in the week and is now questionable for this game. If Davis is out, I will be on the Falcons because Tampa will have immense issues covering Atlanta’s receivers. I don’t anticipate betting this game either way.

    SUNDAY MORNING NOTES: I’m worried about Carlton Davis missing this game, but the Buccaneers didn’t call up a cornerback from the practice squad, so that might be a sign that he will play.

    FINAL THOUGHTS: Carlton Davis will play, which takes the Falcons out of consideration. I wouldn’t bet the Buccaneers either because of the spread being so high, but I’m siding with them as a non-wager. The sharps haven’t touched this. The best line is -13 -105 at both BetUS and Bovada.



    The Motivation. Edge: None.
    No edge found.


    The Spread. Edge: None.

    WalterFootball.com Calculated Spread: Buccaneers -14.
    Westgate Advance Point Spread: Buccaneers -10.5.
    Computer Model: Buccaneers -13.
    DVOA Spread: .




    The Vegas. Edge: Falcons.
    The public isn’t very interested in the double-digit underdog.

    Percentage of money on Tampa Bay: 63% (48,000 bets)


    The Trends. Edge: Falcons.
  • History: Falcons have won 6 of the last 9 meetings.
  • Road Team is 108-68 ATS in Buccaneers games since 2009.
  • Falcons are 31-19 ATS following a loss of 6+ in the previous 50 instances.
  • Falcons are 8-3 ATS as underdogs of 7.5+ since 2009.
  • Matt Ryan is 14-9 ATS as an underdog of 6+ since his second season.
  • Tom Brady is 262-82 as a starter (195-134 ATS).
  • Tom Brady is 180-120 against the spread since 2003.
  • Buccaneers are 29-58 ATS at home in the previous 87 instances.
  • Opening Line: Buccaneers -12.5.
  • Opening Total: 52.
  • Weather: Rain, 86 degrees. Light wind.



  • Week 2 NFL Pick: Buccaneers 41, Falcons 24
    Buccaneers -13 (0 Units) — Correct; $0
    Over 52 (0 Units) — Correct; $0
    Buccaneers 48, Falcons 26




    Tennessee Titans (0-1) at Seattle Seahawks (1-0)
    Line: Seahawks by 6.5. Total: 54.

    Sunday, Sept. 19, 4:25 PM


    The Matchup. Edge: None.

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    SEATTLE OFFENSE: The Seattle front office is constantly criticized for not addressing the offensive line, but I think it did a good job of doing so this offseason. The team traded for Gabe Jackson, which was a huge addition. With better protection, Russell Wilson had all the time he needed last week, allowing him to torch Indianapolis’ secondary. The Colts were missing Xavier Rhodes, but the Titans don’t exactly have a strong secondary.

    I don’t see how the Tennessee will deal with D.K. Metcalf and Tyler Lockett, especially with no pass rush. The Titans won’t be able to rattle Wilson at all, so Wilson will enjoy another terrific performance.

    Chris Carson figures to run well, too. The Titans had trouble with Chase Edmonds and James Conner, and Carson is definitely the superior player.

    TENNESSEE OFFENSE: We all expected the Titans to struggle defensively this year, but their offense’s ineptitude was shocking against Arizona. Chandler Jones and J.J. Watt prevented Tennessee from doing anything on this side of the ball.

    The Titans will have much more success moving the chains in this contest. The Seahawks don’t have anyone resembling Jones and Watt on their defensive line. Carlos Dunlap is a good player, but Tennessee can deal with him. Ryan Tannehill will have more time in the pocket, and he’ll be able to locate A.J. Brown and Julio Jones for big gains.

    Derrick Henry will rebound as well. Henry had one of his worst performances of the past few seasons against the Cardinals, but this matchup is so much easier. Jonathan Taylor trampled the Seahawks last week, and Henry will pick up where Taylor left off.

    RECAP: Here’s a spread overreaction I want to fade. The advance line on this game was Seattle -3.5, and now it’s up to -5.5. The movement is understandable, given how bad Tennessee looked versus Arizona.

    That said, the spread shouldn’t have moved so much. The Cardinals are a top-five NFL team, so what they did to the Titans will make sense in hindsight when all is said and done. The Seahawks are not as good as the Cardinals; in fact, Seattle and Tennessee are very similar – they’re just nine spots apart in my NFL Power Rankings – so -3.5 made much more sense.

    I like the Titans in this game, especially if a +6 appears. They were absolutely humiliated, so I expect them to play at 110 percent so they can redeem themselves.

    THURSDAY THOUGHTS: The Seahawks won’t have Ethan Pocic, which is a strike to their offensive line. If they’re missing one more blocker, I will increase Tennessee’s unit count.

    SATURDAY NOTES: There are major injury concerns on both sides. For the Titans, Jayon Brown and Bud Dupree seem truly questionable for this game. As for the Seahawks, they were already down Ethan Pocic. Now, they could also be without Damien Lewis, who failed to practice Thursday and Friday.

    SUNDAY MORNING NOTES: The Seahawks didn’t call up an offensive lineman, so Damien Lewis should play. If he’s in, this will not be a large wager, especially if the Titans won’t have Jayon Brown available.

    FINAL THOUGHTS: I was hoping for some good injury news for the Titans to bet them in this game. Damien Lewis being out and Jayon Brown playing would be ideal. Well, Lewis is playing, and Brown is out. Not only that, but Taylor Lewan is out as well! I can’t bet the Titans in these conditions, but I’ll still take the value at +6.5. You can find that spread at Bookmaker. The sharps are not betting this.



    The Motivation. Edge: Titans.
    The Titans will look to rebound off an embarrassing loss.


    The Spread. Edge: Titans.

    WalterFootball.com Calculated Spread: Seahawks -5.
    Westgate Advance Point Spread: Seahawks -3.5.
    Computer Model: Seahawks -7.
    DVOA Spread: .




    The Vegas. Edge: None.
    Equal action.

    Percentage of money on Tennessee: 51% (42,000 bets)


    The Trends. Edge: Seahawks.
  • Seahawks are 27-8 ATS in September home games since 2000.
  • Seahawks are 53-36 ATS as home favorites since 2007.
  • Opening Line: Seahawks -6.
  • Opening Total: 52.5.
  • Weather: Possible light rain, 63 degrees. Light wind.



  • Week 2 NFL Pick: Seahawks 27, Titans 24
    Titans +6.5 (0 Units) — Correct; $0
    Under 54 (0 Units) — Incorrect; $0
    Titans 33, Seahawks 30




    Dallas Cowboys (1-0) at Los Angeles Chargers (1-0)
    Line: Chargers by 3. Total: 55.

    Sunday, Sept. 19, 4:25 PM


    The Matchup. Edge: Chargers.

    A reminder that Jerks of the Week for this week is up, so just click the link. This week’s jerks entry is part of the Las Vegas series. I discuss my experience eating at the Eiffel Tower restaurant, as well as some very dumb women at the hotel pool!

    DALLAS OFFENSE: The Cowboys received some bad news after their loss to Tampa Bay, as they learned that La’el Collins would be suspended for five games. They were just about to get Zack Martin back from a very minor illness, too, so they’ll have to wait until their offensive line is fully intact.

    Not having Collins in this game will be painful because right tackle Terence Steele will be matched up against Joey Bosa, who is coming off a brilliant performance in Washington. Dak Prescott enjoyed a completely clean pocket in Tampa Bay, but he may not have that luxury this time.

    Prescott, however, will be able to score a substantial number of points in this contest, as his dynamic receivers have nice matchups against the Chargers’ lackluster cornerbacks. Ezekiel Elliott, meanwhile, will bounce back off his disastrous 2021 debut. The Buccaneers have a penchant for clamping down on elite running backs, so Elliott will be able to match or improve upon what Antonio Gibson was able to accomplish against the Chargers last week.

    SAN ANGELES OFFENSE: Speaking of great offensive lines, the Chargers were able to fend off Chase Young and company well enough to come away with a victory in Washington last week. Rashawn Slater was terrific in his debut, allowing Justin Herbert to convert third down after third down on the final offensive drive to clinch the victory.

    Herbert should have ample time in the pocket once again. The Cowboys couldn’t get to Tom Brady on Thursday night, and they won’t have success against Herbert and his improved blocking unit. Herbert, as a result, will torch a Dallas secondary that won’t match up well against Keenan Allen and Mike Williams.

    Austin Ekeler figures to put together a nice performance as well. Tampa’s running backs couldn’t take advantage of Dallas’ defense last week because they kept putting the ball on the ground, but the superior Ekeler won’t have such issues.

    RECAP: The Cowboys are a major public team, so they often are overhyped. I believe that to be the case in this instance. Everyone saw them nearly beat the Buccaneers last Thursday, but that only occurred because Tampa was so sloppy with four turnovers. Dallas’ offensive line was better than expected without Martin, but now Collins is sidelined. The defense, meanwhile, continues to be atrocious.

    The Chargers are the better team, and I don’t think it’s particularly close. They just went into Washington and beat the Redskins, who are better than the Cowboys, so they should have no problem dispatching Dallas at home. I made this line -6, so I love the value we’re getting with San Angeles.

    I’m going to bet at least a couple of units on the Chargers. The unit count will increase if things are more dire for the Cowboys on the injury report.

    THURSDAY THOUGHTS: DeMarcus Lawrence is out indefinitely, which is a crushing blow to Dallas’ chances against the improved Charger offensive line. I will likely increase my unit count.

    SATURDAY NOTES: It’s not ideal that Chris Harris Jr. is out for the Chargers, but that’s just one injury to a position. The Cowboys are down their top two edge rushers, which means Justin Herbert will have all day to throw into an awful secondary that could be missing starting safety Donovan Wilson. I love the Chargers.

    SUNDAY MORNING NOTES: I still love the Chargers, and I’m going to lock in this pick just in case the spread jumps to -3.5. I’m locking in four units with -3 -106 at Bookmaker.

    FINAL THOUGHTS: Locking in this pick didn’t matter too much because the line shifted from -3 -106 to -3 -108 (best line at Bookmaker). The sharps bet this earlier when the spread was -2.5, but not at -3.



    The Motivation. Edge: None.
    No edge found.


    The Spread. Edge: Chargers.

    WalterFootball.com Calculated Spread: Chargers -6.
    Westgate Advance Point Spread: Chargers -3.
    Computer Model: Chargers -1.
    DVOA Spread: .




    The Vegas. Edge: None.
    Public on the Cowboys. Sharps fading the Cowboys.

    Percentage of money on Dallas: 51% (53,000 bets)


    The Trends. Edge: Cowboys.
  • The underdog is 103-67 ATS in Cowboys games since 2010.
  • Chargers are 11-17 ATS in San Angeles.
  • Opening Line: Chargers -2.5.
  • Opening Total: 51.
  • Weather: Dome.



  • Week 2 NFL Pick: Chargers 34, Cowboys 28
    Chargers -3 -106 (4 Units) – Bookmaker — Incorrect; -$425
    Over 55 (0 Units) — Incorrect; $0
    Cowboys 20, Chargers 17




    Kansas City Chiefs (1-0) at Baltimore Ravens (0-1)
    Line: Chiefs by 3.5. Total: 54.

    Sunday, Sept. 19, 8:20 PM


    The Matchup. Edge: Chiefs.

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    KANSAS CITY OFFENSE: If you watched ESPN2 during the Ravens-Raiders broadcast, you may have heard Peyton and Eli Manning discuss how often the Ravens were blitzing Derek Carr to make up for their meager pass rush. Baltimore has to do this to get pressure on opposing quarterbacks, and that’s exactly why they can’t ever beat Patrick Mahomes.

    Blitzing elite quarterbacks like Mahomes doesn’t work. Mahomes is way too good, and his weapons are way too dynamic to win in this sort of fashion. The Ravens also played man defense on Darren Waller on Monday night, which did not work because Waller had a monstrous performance. You could almost hear Travis Kelce licking his chops when he was a guest on the ESPN2 broadcast.

    Tyreek Hill, meanwhile, might have the easiest matchup of all. The Ravens have serious issues at cornerback. Both Marcus Peters and Jimmy Smith were sidelined against the Raiders, while Marlon Humphrey got hurt during the game. Unless Smith returns and Humphrey is 100 percent, the Ravens have no hope of covering Hill.

    BALTIMORE OFFENSE: The Ravens did not look very sharp offensively Monday night, as Yannick Ngakoue and Maxx Crosby thoroughly embarrassed their tackles. The Chiefs don’t have two elite edge rushers, but they have Chris Jones, who can play on the outside. He’ll win his matchup easily and make life difficult for Lamar Jackson.

    Jackson, of course, will post plenty of rushing yardage, especially against Kansas City’s poor linebacking corps. The Chiefs had issues dealing with Nick Chubb and Kareem Hunt this past Sunday, so Jackson and his running backs figure to have success on the ground.

    Of Jackson’s weapons, Mark Andrews has the best matchup. We just saw David Njoku humiliate the Chief linebackers, so Andrews figures to do better in this contest. Besides, Kansas City has some solid cornerbacks to remove Jackson’s receivers.

    RECAP: The Chiefs will beat the Ravens once again. They simply match up too well against Baltimore’s blitz-heavy defense. The Ravens’ potentially dire cornerback situation will dictate how many units I will be betting on Kansas City.

    I just wish we were getting the advance line. The Chiefs were -2.5 prior to Week 1, and now they’re either -3.5 or -4. A movement of a point or a point-and-a-half may not seem that drastic, but losing with the Chiefs prevailing by exactly three, a very probable result, is far from ideal.

    That’s why the injury report means so much. If the Ravens are down multiple cornerbacks again, I’ll be far more comfortable betting the Chiefs. Until we know who will be playing, I will mark the unit count as TBA.

    THURSDAY THOUGHTS: Jimmy Smith practiced on a limited basis Wednesday, which is a huge boon for the Ravens. Unfortunately for them, Ronnie Stanley is expected to be out, which means the Chiefs will have a huge edge in the trenches.

    SATURDAY NOTES: The Chiefs will have all hands on deck for this matchup, as Tyrann Mathieu and Frank Clark will return after missing last week’s game. The same can’t be said of the Ravens. Ronnie Stanley is expected to miss this game, meaning Baltimore will be down two offensive linemen with Tyre Phillips already on injured reserve. Speaking of injured reserve, cornerback Chris Westry, who had a nice performance Week 1, was placed on that list. Marlon Humphrey and Jimmy Smith are both questionable, but neither practiced fully the entire week, so even if they play, they may not be 100 percent. This is obviously problematic against Patrick Mahomes.

    SUNDAY MORNING NOTES: I’m hoping we get some sort of -3, even if it’s somewhat expensive, but I have my doubts. My unit count will depend on which Ravens are sidelined.

    FINAL THOUGHTS: Ronnie Stanley and Jimmy Smith are out. This means the Ravens will be without two starting offensive linemen and three of their top four cornerbacks. This makes the Chiefs an obvious side. Knowing that, I suspect they’ll screw up many chances inside the 5-yard line like the Eagles, commit tons of penalties like the Chargers, or fire dumb interceptions like the Cardinals. I can’t remember such bad luck to start a season, but I’m not going to change my process. This is a five-unit pick on the Chiefs. The best line is -3.5 -106 at Bookmaker. The sharps haven’t touched this game.



    The Motivation. Edge: None.
    No edge found.


    The Spread. Edge: Ravens.

    WalterFootball.com Calculated Spread: Chiefs -3.
    Westgate Advance Point Spread: Chiefs -2.5.
    Computer Model: Chiefs -2.
    DVOA Spread: .




    The Vegas. Edge: Ravens.
    No surprise here.

    Percentage of money on Kansas City: 79% (95,000 bets)


    The Trends. Edge: Chiefs.
  • Patrick Mahomes is 44-9 SU, 30-21 ATS (23-13 ATS when not favored by double digits.)
  • Opening Line: Chiefs -3.
  • Opening Total: 55.5.
  • Weather: Clear, 73 degrees. Light wind.



  • Week 2 NFL Pick: Chiefs 30, Ravens 24
    Chiefs -3.5 -106 (5 Units) – Bookmaker — Incorrect; -$530
    Under 54 (0 Units) — Incorrect; $0
    Ravens 36, Chiefs 35




    Detroit Lions (0-1) at Green Bay Packers (0-1)
    Line: Packers by 11. Total: 48.5.

    Monday, Sept. 20, 8:15 PM


    The Matchup. Edge: Packers.

    This week on ESPN, we’re going to have awful announcers calling the shots instead the great preseason homers like Kevin Reilly, Ron Wolfley and Don Tollefson, inept ESPN guys Emmitt, Herman Edwards, and aloof people like Jay Cutler. Here’s what it would sound like if some of these dudes (and some special guests) were calling this game:

    Reilly: Welcome to the city of Green Bay, or as I like to call it, Green Gay, where the Fudge Packers and the Detroit Tigers will battle it out in an NFC Central game. Will Brett Favre get the win for the Fudge Packers, or will the Lions win with Matthew Stanford? Guys, I don’t have any of these players on my fantasy roster. I wanted Brett Favre, but my friend Melvis, who I paid to do the league with me, drafted Favre instead. I almost kicked him out of the league! It’s not fair! What do you guys think? Should I have kicked him out of the league?

    Emmitt: Shelby, I think you mistakened. Bread Fart not play football for 10 year, otherwise knowed as a century. Bread Fart replacement when he die was Aaron Johnson, whomed become the host of Wheel of Fortune Cookie, the game where they spin the wheel and the guy guessed the alphabet in the sentence.

    Reilly: Aaron Johnson wasn’t in my fantasy mag, so I guess I win by default! I have a rule that says if a good player is on a team, and he wasn’t in my fantasy mag, I automatically win!

    Tollefson: Kevin, as I’ve said before, you need to stop playing these sissy fantasy games. The only fantasy draft I do is when I choose which one of my sex slaves cooks and cleans naked for me.

    Reilly: Tolly, I’ve told you time and again. Mother won’t let me have any girlfriends. I’m not as cool as you, so I can’t own any sex slaves. Maybe one day, but I still have to worry about cooties.

    Joe Biden: You don’t need to worry about cooties. Trust me, when I sniff the- uhh- the- uhh- you know the thing, you know the thing that comes out of people’s heads and can be blond or brown or red, you know the thing, when you sniff the thing, you get excited in your pants. Because the pants, the pants has the thing- you know the thing that a man has, but a woman doesn’t have. Come on, man, speaking of women, I have many lockets of their hair in my desk. I took the lockets from the little girls. Uh oh, I think I’m going to get into trouble for that.

    Reilly: I have many lockets of hair in my desk, too, Joe B-

    Donald Trump: Excuse me, excuse me, wrong, wrong, Sleepy Joe doesn’t have any lockets of hair because he’s a total loser and a total disgrace! In fact, Sleepy Joe doesn’t have any lockets of hair because he is too much of a disaster to have lockets of hair! Sleepy Joe doesn’t even have any brain cells, maybe one, but that’s the most he’s ever had, and trust me, I know many things about brain cells because I’m an expert in these things, and I know the best experts, and trust me, I know almost as much as these experts, not quite as much, but almost as much, trust me, and these experts and I both agreed that Sleepy Joe doesn’t have any brain cells, and the only person who has less brain cells is No Cookie Jordan Love, who has no cookies and I have two, and I put ketchup on both of my cookies because that’s what elite people do, you know, the mainstream fake news media says they’re elite, but they’re not the elite, people who put ketchup on their cookies is elite!

    Wolfley: DONALD TRUMP, YOU SHOULDN’T PUT KETCHUP ON YOUR COOKIES UNLESS YOU HAVE SAUCE ON THE BALLS BECAUSE THAT CAN CAUSE EIGHT YEARS OF BAD LUCK. ONE MORE YEAR THAN BREAKING A MIRROR, AND TWO MORE YEARS THAN BREAKING A COW.

    Reilly: Guys, I don’t care about superstitions. New Daddy forced me to walk under a ladder and cross a black cat, just to prove that it’s not real, right New Daddy?

    Jay Cutler: Yeah, that’s exactly why I made you do those things. I totally didn’t want to get you out of my life, or anything.

    Reilly: See? I told you guys! Superstitions are stupid, just like Charles Davis!

    Charles Davis: Kevin, it sounds like you want to talk about superstitions, right, Kevin? Let’s talk about superstitions, Kevin. You named the black cat and ladder thing, Kevin. And then there’s putting ketchup on cookies, Kevin. But what about not responding to chain letters, Kevin? Let’s talk about the number 13, Kevin. Fear of the number 13 is called triskaidekaphobia, Kevin. Let’s discuss putting shoes on a table, Kevin. How about three strikes on a match, Kevin? Let’s chat about viewing one’s doppelganger, Kevin. We can delve into opening an umbrella indoors, Kevin. These are all things your New Daddy will do because he wants you out of his life, Kevin. That’s because you’re a sad excuse for a human being, Kevin.

    Reilly: F**K YOU, CHARLES DAVIS, NEW DADDY WOULD NEVER HARM ME EVER BECAUSE HE LOVES ME SO MUCH, MORE THAN ANYONE HAS EVER LOVED YOU, YOU SAD SACK OF S**T!!! We’ll be back after this!

    GREEN BAY OFFENSE: What happened last week? We’ve seen Aaron Rodgers’ teams put together some ugly games before, but never one like that during the opening week of the season. Rodgers looked completely disinterested in playing, almost as if he wished he were still hosting Jeopardy or Wheel of Fortune Cookie, whatever that is.

    I won’t pretend like this Rodgers is here to stay. There’s a chance he lost passion for the game, and his team will be a deep money pit this year for those betting on them. However, Rodgers deserves a mulligan. He won MVP last year, and I have to believe that he’s completely embarrassed by how he and his team performed. If so, Green Bay will absolutely murder the Lions. Detroit had no answer for Jimmy Garoppolo last week, and now it won’t have Jeff Okudah, who suffered a season-ending injury.

    The Lions’ secondary is a mess, and so is the run defense. We just saw Elijah Mitchell trample Detroit’s sorry defense, so imagine what Aaron Jones and A.J. Dillon will accomplish.

    DETROIT OFFENSE: I bet the 49ers heavily last week, thanks in part to Taylor Decker’s injury. Decker’s absence forced someone named Matt Nelson into the starting lineup, giving Detroit a poor blocking unit. The Lions, as a consequence, had trouble generating offense until Jason Verrett was lost in garbage time.

    The Packers obviously don’t have the pass rush the 49ers possess, but Za’Darius Smith figures to return following last week’s absence. He and Preston Smith should create havoc in Detroit’s backfield, forcing Jared Goff into mistakes. With Jaire Alexander taking away half the field, Goff won’t have many viable options, outside of T.J. Hockenson, figures to perform well.

    The Lions, naturally, will attempt to establish D’Andre Swift and Jamaal Williams, especially after seeing Alvin Kamara and Tony Jones rip through Green Bay’s defense with ease this past Sunday. Green Bay’s ground defense wasn’t expected to be great, by any means, but it’ll improved after being humiliated. Also, Detroit’s defense is worse than New Orleans’ by a wide margin, so Swift and Williams will be easier to stop than Kamara and Jones.

    RECAP: The Packers are the clear side for several reasons. Primarily, I love betting on elite quarterbacks coming off a loss. We still think Rodgers is elite, and if so, he’s going to make a statement with a tremendous game. On a similar note, backing good teams after an embarrassing defeat tends to be lucrative. Again, it’s not clear if this applies to the Packers, but I doubt Green Bay went from being the No. 1 seed to a mediocre squad in the blink of an eye.

    There are also several mismatches in the Packers’ favor, which I discussed. I don’t think the Lions can keep the Smiths out of the backfield, and they have no one to cover Davante Adams and the other Packer receivers.

    I imagine I’ll be betting three or four units on the Packers. I have some fear about Green Bay being the money pit I discussed earlier, but I’m willing to give the team another chance.

    THURSDAY THOUGHTS: It’s more likely than not that the sharps will be on an underdog, but we haven’t seen that at all in this game yet.

    SATURDAY NOTES: The Packers could have some issues. Guard Lucas Patrick is dealing with a concussion, so if he’s out for this game, the Packers will be missing two starting offensive linemen. The Lions suck, but they can apply good pressure on the quarterback with Trey Flowers and Romeo Okwara, so Green Bay’s offense could struggle if Patrick is sidelined. In fact, I’d switch my pick to the Packers if Aaron Rodgers weren’t coming off a loss.

    SUNDAY MORNING NOTES: I’m considering pairing the Lions moneyline with another underdog because of the possible Packer offensive line woes.

    FINAL THOUGHTS: The Packers had a couple of injury concerns heading into this game with Lucas Patrick and Darnell Savage, but both will be available. That’ll keep me on Green Bay, and I’ll bet one unit on the host. I like getting Aaron Rodgers off a loss, but this spread is very high. The sharps aren’t betting this game. The best spread I can see is at Bookmaker (-11 -109).



    The Motivation. Edge: Packers.
    The Packers were completely embarrassed last week.


    The Spread. Edge: None.

    WalterFootball.com Calculated Spread: Packers -10.
    Westgate Advance Point Spread: Packers -11.
    Computer Model: Packers -10.
    DVOA Spread: .




    The Vegas. Edge: None.
    Equal action.

    Percentage of money on Detroit: 57% (104,000 bets)


    The Trends. Edge: Packers.
  • History: Packers have won the last 4 meetings.
  • Packers are 54-33 ATS in divisional games since 2006.
  • Aaron Rodgers is 109-75 ATS since 2009.
  • Aaron Rodgers is 33-15 ATS after a loss (12-7 ATS as a favorite of 7.5+).
  • Lions are 8-19 ATS as underdogs of 6 or more since 2011.
  • Opening Line: Packers -11.5.
  • Opening Total: 49.5.
  • Weather: Cloudy, 72 degrees. Mild wind, 14 mph.



  • Week 2 NFL Pick: Packers 30, Lions 17
    Packers -11 -109 (1 Unit) — Correct; +$100
    Under 48.5 (0 Units) — Incorrect; $0
    Packers 35, Lions 17






    week 2 NFL Picks – Early Games
    Giants at Redskins, Bengals at Bears, Texans at Browns, Rams at Colts, Bills at Dolphins, Patriots at Jets, 49ers at Eagles, Raiders at Steelers, Saints at Panthers, Broncos at Jaguars




    Prop/Teaser/Parlay Picks
    A list of some of my favorite team/player prop picks this week
    (Offense & defensive ROY picks to be counted whenever winners are announced.) Picks carried over on a week-to-week basis will be in black.


    Prop/teaser/parlay picks posted in Week 2 NFL Picks – Early Games



    Fantasy Football Rankings - May 23


    2025 NFL Mock Draft - May 21


    NFL Power Rankings - Feb. 22


    NFL Picks - Feb. 12




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    My Team-by-Team ATS Record
    This section shows how well I do when picking each team this year. The purpose is to see how well I read each team. Pushes are not displayed. Winning/losing streak in parentheses.

    Cowboys: 8-9
    Bears: 11-4
    Bucs: 6-11
    49ers: 10-7
    Eagles: 7-7
    Lions: 9-8
    Falcons: 8-9
    Cardinals: 8-9
    Giants: 7-9
    Packers: 5-12
    Panthers: 8-9
    Rams: 8-9
    Redskins: 14-3
    Vikings: 6-9
    Saints: 10-7
    Seahawks: 7-9
    Bills: 9-7
    Bengals: 12-5
    Colts: 7-10
    Broncos: 9-6
    Dolphins: 6-11
    Browns: 11-5
    Jaguars: 13-4
    Chargers: 8-9
    Jets: 8-9
    Ravens: 11-6
    Texans: 5-12
    Chiefs: 5-10
    Patriots: 7-9
    Steelers: 11-6
    Titans: 9-8
    Raiders: 6-9
    Divisional: 50-35 (2011-22: 558-526)
    2x Game Edge: 36-24 (2011-22: 363-361)
    2x Motivation Edge: 32-36 (2011-22: 478-405)
    2x Spread Edge: 41-40 (2011-22: 197-168)
    2x Vegas Edge: 41-38 (2011-22: 407-406)
    2x Trend Edge: 15-13 (2011-22: 306-279)
    Double Edge: 17-13 (2011-22: 190-172)
    Triple Edge: 1-1 (2011-22: 32-36)

    2003 Preseason: 3 | 4 | 5
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