NFL Picks Against the Spread: Week 18, 2020

Baltimore Ravens (11-5) at Tennessee Titans (11-5)
Line: Ravens by 3.5. Total: 54.5.
Sunday, Jan. 10, 1:05 PM


The Matchup. Edge: None.

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BALTIMORE OFFENSE: If you truly think the Ravens are unstoppable right now, you haven’t seen whom they’ve played since their Week 12 loss to the Steelers. Four of their five opponents have been the Cowboys, Jaguars, Giants and Bengals. The lone exception was a Monday night battle against Cleveland, which was a thrilling victory. However, we’ve since seen the Browns lose to the Jets and barely beat Mason Rudolph, so how impressive was that victory?

The last time Lamar Jackson battled a tough opponent was Week 11. As it so happens, that was a game against the Titans, who did a great job against Jackson. They held him to 17-of-29 passing for 186 yards, one touchdown and an interception. They also limited him to 51 rushing yards on 13 scrambles. Mike Vrabel just seems to have Jackson’s number, as evidenced by Tennessee’s domination over Baltimore in the playoffs last January.

This is simply a bad matchup for Jackson. Tennessee is far weaker to the pass than the run, but Jackson has thrown for more than 186 yards just once since Week 10, and that was against the pathetic Jaguars. The Titans can stop ground attacks pretty well, so they can restrict Jackson and J.K. Dobbins from trampling them.

TENNESSEE OFFENSE: The Titans match up well offensively against the Ravens as well. Baltimore has an excellent secondary, but it can be beaten on the ground. We saw this in Week 10 when the Patriots rammed the ball down the Ravens’ throat in a crazy monsoon. I know that Calais Campbell was out, and that Brandon Williams suffered an injury in the middle of the game, but I’m not convinced Campbell is fully healthy. Derrick Henry rushed for 133 yards in the first matchup. This wasn’t even as impressive as his playoff performance in which he compiled 195 yards on 30 attempts.

The one caveat here is that Henry’s run blocking might be considerably worse than usual in this contest. Stud guard Rodger Saffold got hurt last week, and he’s expected to be a “close call” for this game. With Taylor Lewan sidelined, it might be difficult for the Titans to survive if they’re down two blockers.

Meanwhile, Ryan Tannehill has a tough matchup aerially, as Baltimore’s excellent cornerbacks will smother his options. However, A.J. Brown is extremely talented, so if Tannehill has some time in the pocket as a result of the Ravens focusing on the run, he’ll be able to locate Brown for some nice gains. Jonnu Smith should also do well, given that Baltimore has struggled against tight ends.

RECAP: The Saffold news is big. If he plays, I love the Titans. This game is horribly mispriced because Tennessee should be favored. My line for this game is Tennessee -2.

That might seem odd to some, but again, those people haven’t paid attention to whom the Ravens have beaten. Baltimore loves demolishing bad teams. That’s all they’ve done with Jackson at quarterback. They seldom beat tough opponents, and Tennessee will certainly be classified as such if Saffold is in the lineup.

This will be a big wager if Saffold plays. If he doesn’t, I’ll still be on the Titans because of the great line value, but I’m not sure if I’ll be betting this game.

THURSDAY THOUGHTS: Rodger Saffold has yet to practice this week, but he told the media that he plans on playing. We’ll see. Perhaps that’s what the sharps are banking on because they’re betting Tennessee.

SATURDAY NOTES: The Ravens have gotten healthier, as they’ll get some missing defensive players back from injury. They could be down multiple offensive linemen if D.J. Fluker is sidelined, but it’s not like the Titans can take advantage of this. That said, I still love the Titans, especially now that we know Rodger Saffold will play.

FINAL THOUGHTS: The sharps are betting the Titans heavily, which makes sense to me. I was waiting on Rodger Saffold news, so I was happy to see that he’s playing. This spread is way too high, and the two most likely results of this game are either team winning by three. The best line I see is +3.5 -115 at BetUS.

Chicago Bears (8-8) at New Orleans Saints (12-4)
Line: Saints by 10.5. Total: 47.
Sunday, Jan. 10, 4:40 PM


The Matchup. Edge: Saints.

If you’ve followed this site for a while, you might remember that I like to respond to my spam mails. It all started seven years ago, when a man named Jon Wire from the “United Bank of Africoan” promised me an ATM card of some sort, so I responded as a man named Mister Compassion Chuck Norris, who was raised by wolves. The following season, I received e-mails from Richard Held and Loon Bruce, who told me I won a Facebook Award, which comes with a “lump sum pay out of (750,000.00 GBP).” Pretending to be Matthew Millen Kim, I sent out my application and fake money.

I’ve been messing around with spammers ever since, pretending to be Harvey Weinstein, Tom Brady, Ramsay Bolton and Walter White. I had plenty of Spam Mails this year, so check them out if you want to see me screw with spammers. I’ll have new ones every week this year!

Emmitt on the Brink Season 13 is complete! Emmitt and his bastard son, Emmitt Snow Jr., battle the Giant Bear in an attempt to put an end to the pandemic.

A reminder that Jerks of the Week for this week is up, so just click the link. This week’s jerks entry is called Thanksgiving Farting.

NEW ORLEANS OFFENSE: It’s amazing that the Saints crushed the Panthers in Week 17, considering that they had no active running backs on the roster. Alvin Kamara was sidelined with a minor illness, while the other running backs were also held out because they may have caught a minor illness from Kamara. Add in Michael Thomas’ absence, and it was shocking that the Saints scored 33 points.

Of course, it helped that Teddy Bridgewater often fired the ball to the Saints while in the red zone. Mitchell Trubisky could do that as well, which we’ll discuss in a bit. However, the Saints won’t really need to count on that because Kamara and Thomas figure to return in this contest. Their presence will make things so much easier for the other components in the Saints’ offense.

Speaking of those components, they may have easy matchups. The Bears have been down two cornerbacks for several weeks now, which was a liability Aaron Rodgers exploited in Week 17. If this continues to be the case, Drew Brees won’t have any sort of issue doing the same.

CHICAGO OFFENSE: Going back to Trubisky, the turnover-prone quarterback could easily make some mistakes in this contest. Trubisky had the luxury of battling some soft defenses during the team’s winning streak in December, beating up on the injury-ravaged Vikings and Lions, and easily vanquishing the pathetic Jaguars and Texans. Trubisky finally had a step up in competition against the Packers, and he faceplanted.

The Saints have an even better defense than Green Bay. Marshon Lattimore will be able to limit Allen Robinson, just like Jaire Alexander did, but the Saints have other talented players in the secondary who will be able to contain Mad Eye Mooney and Anthony Miller.

New Orleans has also been stout versus the run for most of the year. Perhaps David Montgomery will be able to do some damage as a receiver out of the backfield, but he’ll be mostly stymied as a runner. This will put more of the burden on Trubisky, which is never a good thing.

RECAP: Name the weakest team in the playoffs. Most people will say that the Redskins are the correct answer to that question, but it could easily be the Bears. They’re a 5-11 team wearing an 8-8 costume. They’ve gotten so lucky in many games this year, from the comeback versus the injury-plagued Lions in Week 1, to the Golden Tate’s drop versus the Giants on the final play in Week 2, to the comeback against the Julio Jones-less Falcons in Week 3, to the fluky win over the receiver-less Buccaneers in Week 5, Chicago ran up victories in extremely fortunate fashion. The Bears could easily be 5-11 or even 4-12 right now.

With that in mind, this is a completely lopsided affair. We just saw the Bears, in a must-win situation at home versus the Packers, lose by 19 points. Now, they have to battle the equally tough Saints on the road. How are they going to prevail, assuming Kamara and Thomas return to action?

The Saints should be able to win this game by double digits, though the high line scares me a bit. If Brees truly isn’t 100 percent yet, the back door could be open for Chicago, but I’ll take my chances with the superior squad.

THURSDAY THOUGHTS: The Bears might have one of their two missing cornerbacks, Jaylon Johnson, back in action, as he returned to practice on a limited basis. Either way, I still like the Saints for two or three units.

SATURDAY NOTES: The Bears have some new injuries of note. They’ll be getting one of their corners back, but they could be without Mad Eye Mooney and Roquan Smith. Mooney’s absence wouldn’t be a big deal, but Smith being out would be enormous. If Smith is sidelined, I’ll increase my unit count.

FINAL THOUGHTS: Nothing is making much sense in the playoffs thus far, though that’s not the reason why I’m backing off this game. I think the Saints are the play because the Bears are missing multiple offensive linemen and cornerbacks, and they won’t have Roquan Smith either. However, I’m not sure if we’ll be getting the Saints at their best. They’re getting Alvin Kamara and Michael Thomas back into the lineup, but there’s no guarantee they’ll be 100 percent. With that in mind, I’ll pass on this game, which is what the sharps are doing. If you want to bet the Saints, the best line is at Bovada (-10.5).

Cleveland Browns (11-5) at Pittsburgh Steelers (12-4)
Line: Steelers by 6. Total: 47.5.
Sunday, Jan. 10, 8:15 PM


The Matchup. Edge: Steelers.

This week on ESPN, we’re going to have awful announcers calling the shots instead the great preseason homers like Kevin Reilly, Ron Wolfley and Don Tollefson, inept ESPN guys Emmitt, Herman Edwards, and aloof people like Dan Fouts and Jay Cutler. Here’s what it would sound like if these seven dudes (and some special guests) were calling this game:

Reilly: Welcome to the city of Pittsburgh, otherwise known as the giant turd in the otherwise great state of Pennsylvania! Tonight, the Pittsburgh Penguins take on the Cleveland Indians. Guys, no one really cares about this game, so I need to vent about something. I’m really pissed off that people are saying my Philadelphia Eagles tanked against the Washington Capitals. I watched the game with Mother while rubbing her feet, and we both agreed that it was good to get to see Nate Seinfeld. We needed to see what we had in him so we can trade him for a first-round pick!

Emmitt: Jussie, I do not understand why people say the Eagles tanks the game. I watch the game with my son, my fruit of my loom, Emmitt Snow Jr., and he and me both do not seened any tank on the field! A tanks is a car that army people drive, and they shoot bomb out of the long hole. The Eagle do not set up us the bomb!

Reilly: Emmitt, if only we could get tanks and shoot at the Dallas Cowboys, my life would be so much better. Now, let’s hear from Tara Muller, our award-winning female announcer!

Tara Muller: I love football! Football is so much fun! People say the Eagles tanked Sunday night! But I don’t think so! They wanted to see Nate Sudfeld! Sudfeld’s a nice guy!

Reilly: Wow, that was great announcing, you guys! Has anyone ever said anything so profound?

Jason Witten: Hello, my name is Jason Witten and I just came out of retirement. Guys, I heard some talk about profound. Profound is a pro who found stuff real good. Because when you’re a pro at finding stuff, you’re real good at finding stuff, which is why they call you a pro. If you’re not a pro at finding stuff, maybe you’re a confound. Because con is the opposite of pro. If you confound, you’re the opposite of a pro at finding stuff. And the opposite means the other thing. Because if you are profound, but you’re the opposite, then you’re confound, and you were never profound in the first place.

Tollefson: I think I need a profound to find some escaped hookers. I chained up some ladies of the night in my basement recently, but I had too much to drink and I forgot to hide the key. They unlocked themselves and escaped. Jason, do you think you can hire a profound for me so I can hunt them down and make them pay?

Reilly: Tolly, you know better than to ask Jason Witten questions.

Fouts: And here’s what he means by asking questions. When you ask a question, you have a question, and you’re asking it so you can find the answer. And here’s what I mean by answer. When you have an answer, you have the answer to a question that was asked by either someone or you, and then the answer is the answer to that question.

Wolfley: DAN, DO NOT ASSUME THAT EVERY QUESTION HAS AN ANSWER. WHERE I COME FROM, PEOPLE ASK ANSWERS, AND OTHERS RESPOND WITH QUESTIONS.

Reilly: What do you live in, a Jeopardy studio, or something?

Cutler: Ha, that was pretty funny, kiddo.

Reilly: You mean it, New Daddy? Do you think I have what it takes to be a famous comedian when I grow up?

Cutler: Nah, you’re pretty lame.

Reilly: WAAAHHHHHHHHH!!!

Station Employee: Excuse me, it’s time we try out a new anchor on this program. We want to see what we have in Nephew Kevin. He has Asperger’s. We swear we’re not tanking this broadcast.

Reilly: WHAT!? I’D RATHER DIE THAN GIVE UP MY JOB!!! I NEED THE MONEY TO BUY EAGLES BOBBLEHEADS!!!

Station Employee: Calm down, it was just an idea. We just wanted to get a look at the mentally challenged kid.

Alyssa Milano: WHHHAAATTTT!?!?!?!?!?!? Ex-ca-use me! How dare you say mentally challenged!? There’s nothing challenged about Nephew Kevin! Sure, he urinates wherever he wants, and he blows bubbles out of his butt in public, but this is all normal behavior! If you call him challenged again, I’ll have to dial 9-1-1 and report you!!!

Reilly: You tell ’em, Alyssa! Now, if only I had you to protect me against bullies, too…

Charles Davis: Kevin, looks like you’re talking about bullies, Kevin. Let’s go over some famous bullies in TV and cinema, Kevin. Let’s begin with Ace from Stand by Me, Kevin. What about Scut Farkus from A Christmas Story, Kevin? Let’s discuss Draco from Harry Potter, Kevin. We can’t forget about Regina George from Mean Girls, Kevin. This list wouldn’t be complete without Johnny Lawrence, Kevin. We’d be remiss not to include Buff from Back to the Future, Kevin. And who could forget Harley Keiner from Boy Meets World, Kevin. To top it off, what about Charles Davis, from the WalterFootball.com Fake Football Announcement Broadcast, Kevin?

Reilly: HA! YOU’RE NOT A BULLY! ALL YOU DO IS HARASS ME AND STEAL MY BOBBLEHEADS AND UH- TAKE MY LUNCH MONEY- UH!!! ALYSSA, PLEASE SAVE ME FROM THIS BULLY!!!!! We’ll be back after this!

CLEVELAND OFFENSE: The Browns may have won to get into the playoffs in Week 17, but they put forth a very lackluster performance. They struggled to put away the second-string Steelers, as they were a two-point conversion away from seeing the game go to overtime. The reason why the Browns couldn’t muster much offense was because Baker Mayfield saw lots of pressure, which disrupted several drives. He was sacked on four occasions, which was very shocking because the Steelers played without T.J. Watt and Cameron Heyward. Pittsburgh will obviously have all hands on deck for this matchup, so it should be able to rattle Mayfield some more, especially with Joel Bitonio likely out with a minor illness.

The Browns will have to counter with the run to ease some pressure off Mayfield. Nick Chubb had a long touchdown run last week, but again, that was versus the backups. The Steelers are usually stout against ground attacks, so Cleveland’s offense will be one dimensional, especially if the Steelers establish a big lead.

Making matters worse, the Browns won’t have Kevin Stefanski available to coach up Mayfield and the rest of the offense because he, too, contracted a minor illness. This will undoubtedly throw everything out of whack for Cleveland.

PITTSBURGH OFFENSE: The Browns received some terrible news not related to minor illnesses ahead of this game, which was Olivier Vernon tearing his Achilles. You have to feel for Vernon, who was set to enter a free agency period in which he would receive his last big contract. Instead, he’ll have to settle for 1-year “prove it” contracts.

While this sucks for Vernon, it’s also horrible news for the Browns, as they’ll miss his presence. Vernon played well versus the run and logged nine sacks in 2020. The former won’t matter too much because saying that the Steelers struggle to run the ball is an understatement. This will ultimately be their demise, but perhaps not in this game.

Vernon’s pass-rushing presence was important this year because the Browns have depth issues in their secondary. With that in mind, Cleveland has a tough task ahead of itself to defend all of the talent Pittsburgh has at receiver. Denzel Ward will lock down one of the four talented wideouts, but Ben Roethlisberger will have plenty of options at his disposal. Roethlisberger will be extra potent if talented lineman Matt Feiler can return to action following a multi-game absence.

RECAP: Cleveland could have trouble preparing for this game with Stefanski out of commission. If it was just Bitonio sidelined because of a minor illness, it would be bad enough, but not having the head coach avaiable is a big deal.

Furthermore, I mentioned earlier that the Rams had the unfortunate situation of using a quarterback making his first playoff start. The Browns are in the same dilemma, given that Mayfield has no playoff experience. Again, first-time playoff quarterbacks are 15-34-1 against the spread, though they’re an acceptable 7-10 ATS as road underdogs.

Still, this could be quite the learning experience for Mayfield, who has faltered against all the tough competition he has battled this year, save for the Ravens in the second meeting against them on Monday night. However, Baltimore was very banged up in that contest. Taking that result away, here is how the Browns performed against quality opponents this year:

Week 1: Loss at Ravens, 38-6
Week 5: Win vs. Colts, 32-23*
Week 6: Loss at Steelers, 38-7
Week 13: Win at Titans, 41-35*

So, they’re 2-2, with the two losses being blowout defeats. The wins look nice at first glance, but consider that the Colts were missing half their roster in Week 5, while the Titans were coming off a big statement victory versus the arch-rival Colts and didn’t seem completely focused.

I don’t buy the Browns as a good playoff team, and the computer model agrees; it believed Pittsburgh -8 was the correct line before the Stefanski news even broke. With that in mind, I’m down to make a multi-unit wager on the Steelers.

THURSDAY THOUGHTS: The Browns have closed their practice facility once again because their top safety, Ronnie Harrison, tested positive and won’t be available for this game. That’s yet another huge blow for Cleveland. Perhaps this is some good news: This line is -6 everywhere, except Pinnacle (-5.5), which is the sharpest of all sportsbooks. It looks like they want Pittsburgh bets at the moment.

SATURDAY NOTES: We’re still unsure who will be available for the Browns. They could be without multiple offensive linemen and their top three cornerbacks, as well as their head coach. I’m going to lock in the Steelers soon.

FINAL THOUGHTS: I don’t understand why the sharps are betting the Browns. Cleveland is without its head coach, who happens to be the offensive play-caller. The Browns are also missing some offensive linemen and all of their cornerbacks. Plus, Baker Mayfield is making his first playoff start. The sharp action is a bit worrying, but I still love Pittsburgh. This will be a four-unit pick. The best line is -5 -106 at Bookmaker.