NFL Picks Against the Spread: Week 18, 2020

Indianapolis Colts (11-5) at Buffalo Bills (13-3)
Line: Bills by 6.5. Total: 51.5.
Saturday, Jan. 9, 1:05 PM


The Matchup. Edge: Bills.

WEEK 17 RECAP: We closed out the season on a high note, going 8-7-1 (+$985), thanks to our Rams +3 Pick of the Month! The regular season concluded with nearly $5,000 in profit. I’m happy with how things went; not just for the money, but also because I learned so much during the year. I picked up on some things following the Weeks 9-11 debacles, and I was able to apply it to my handicapping at the end of the year. Thus, I think 2021 will be even better!

My Week 18 NFL Picks will be posted all day Tuesday. Follow @walterfootball for updates.

By the way, if you want to support this site, check out my new book!



In this book, I talk about the top NFL Draft busts, and what would’ve happened had each team gone a different route. Also, I discuss why Roger Goodell has banned us from the NFL Combine.

INDIANAPOLIS OFFENSE: One of the primary reasons why the Colts were one of my top picks to win the Super Bowl entering the 2020 campaign was because of their offensive line. They had arguably the best blocking unit in the league, which would give Philip Rivers plenty of time in the pocket and Jonathan Taylor massive lanes to run through. Teams with great offensive lines tend to overperform, as the general public doesn’t pay attention to blocking as much as it should.

The Colts’ strength is diminished, however. Anthony Castonzo suffered a season-ending injury in Week 15, which was a huge blow for the team. They missed both Castonzo and Braden Smith as they blew a big lead to the Steelers the following Sunday, and even though they got Smith back in the finale, they still struggled to move the chains against the Jaguars after getting out to an early lead. A late touchdown run from Taylor saved the Colts from a potential embarrassing defeat.

The thing is, the Jaguars barely had any talented, healthy players in that matchup. The Bills certainly do. They’ll be able to pressure Rivers heavily, and Rivers won’t be able to find many of his targets open. Taylor will have some success as a rusher, but not if his team falls behind early.

BUFFALO OFFENSE: The question is, will the Bills score a ton of points in the early stages to make Taylor irrelevant? I would say yes. The Bills have one of the most explosive offenses in the NFL, and they’ve been able to light up the scoreboard against everyone this year when Josh Allen has been healthy.

Allen is certainly healthy now. Following a sluggish opening drive, Allen torched a great Dolphin defense for three touchdowns – in the first half alone! I’m not exactly sure why Allen played, but he looked as sharp as ever after an early interception, and it helped that he once again had John Brown at his disposal.

This doesn’t bode well for the Colts. Indianapolis’ defense is far better against the run than the pass, which sets up poorly versus the Bills, given that Buffalo doesn’t rely on its running game. The Colts don’t have the best depth in the secondary, so defending all of Allen’s weapons will be a huge problem.

RECAP: As if the tough matchup in Buffalo’s favor wasn’t bad enough for the Colts, they’ll have to deal with some harsh weather this weekend. Early reports are calling for 27-degree temperatures, which sounds ominous for Indianapolis. Whenever I think about the Colts playing in freezing weather, I recall Andrew Luck’s horrible performance against the Chiefs in which he looked like this:



With the offensive line not protecting Rivers as well as it did earlier in the year, it could be a long, cold afternoon for the Colts in Orchard Park.

Our Week 18 NFL Picks will be posted all day Tuesday. Follow @walterfootball for updates.

THURSDAY THOUGHTS: The Colts suddenly have some injury concerns. Neither DeForest Buckner nor Rock Ya-Sin has practiced this week, and the latter has already been ruled out. Buckner is the bigger deal, so if he’s sidelined as well, I’ll have even more units on the Bills.

SATURDAY NOTES: Buckner finally practiced Thursday, and he’s listed as questionable. My unit count will be adjusted depending on the inactives list that will be released 90 minutes prior to kickoff.

FINAL THOUGHTS: It’s a bummer that DeForest Buckner will play. That’s huge for the Colts. Still, I like Buffalo, and it helps a bit that Cole Beasley will be available. This means Josh Allen will have his full receiving corps for the first time since Week 10. That might be one of the reasons why the sharps are betting the Bills at -6.5. You can still get that number at Bookmaker with -115 vig. I’m betting Buffalo for two units.

Los Angeles Rams (10-6) at Seattle Seahawks (12-4)
Line: Seahawks by 3. Total: 42.
Saturday, Jan. 9, 4:40 PM


The Matchup. Edge: Seahawks

VEGAS UPDATE: I’ll be posting how the Vegas sportsbooks have done the previous week in this spot. The highest-bet sides were 44-40-2 last season and 31-36 heading into Week 17.

Here are the teams getting the most bets last week:

Cowboys -3

Seahawks -5.5

Ravens -13.5

Packers -4.5

Titans -7.5

The heaviest-bet sides were 2-3 last weeks, so it was yet another winning week for the books.

Here are the teams getting the most bets this week:

Buccaneers -8.5

Bills -6.5

Saints -10

Steelers -6

No surprise that the four highest-bet sides are all favorites. You’d think the public would learn to bet numbers with a + in front of them once in a while, but apparently not.

LOS ANGELES OFFENSE: I was happy to see John Wolford – or Wolflord, if you prefer – come through for us last week. We won our December NFL Pick of the Month, thanks to his acceptable play, and in doing so, he did this to the Cardinals:



Will he be able to decrease Seattle’s hits by 32 as well? There’s a chance that could happen if Jamal Adams doesn’t play. Adams, who had been performing better in the second half of the year, suffered an injury in the fourth quarter last week. There’s a chance he could miss this contest, which would open things up against an already-soft pass defense. Wolflord will have plenty of time in the pocket as well; his excellent offensive line should protect him against Seattle’s pedestrian pass rush.

The Rams, of course, will try to run the ball and control the clock, which they did perfectly versus Arizona. The Seahawks are better versus the rush than the pass, but they’ll have to account for Wolflord’s legs as well.

SEATTLE OFFENSE: The Seahawks had a sluggish offensive close to their season. Excluding the Week 17 victory over a 49er team missing most of its defense, Seattle scored more than 23 points just once since Week 11, and that lone exception was a win over the pathetic Jets. It was quite the disparity from earlier in the season, when the Seahawks were scoring into the 30s with ease.

The Seahawks have stopped allowing Russell Wilson to cook, which has been very frustrating. However, there might have been a good reason for it, which would be the declined play from the offensive line. The Seahawks had a healthy offensive line in the first month of the season, but since then, they’ve had a missing blocker every single week – except for when they crushed the Jets, 40-3. It’s sounding like the Seahawks, who were down two offensive linemen versus the 49ers, will have their entire blocking unit back for the playoff run. Pete Carroll told the media that Brandon Shell and Mike Iupati will return at “full strength” for this game, which is absolutely enormous.

With time in the pocket, Wilson will be able to locate his talented receivers for big gains. D.K. Metcalf and Tyler Lockett have tough matchups, but they’re almost impossible to stop when Wilson is fully protected and can buy himself even more time to connect with them.

RECAP: I don’t need to tell you how important it is that the Seahawks will have a fully healthy offensive line for the second time since Week 4. Considering the matchup, Seattle needed a completely intact blocking unit to protect against Aaron Donald and company. If Adams is also healthy, I’ll have a big bet prepared.

I know, I know, going against Wolflord and his Hurtmore spell is worrisome, but perhaps not when you consider how quarterbacks have performed when making their first playoff start. Here’s the list since 2002:

Home Favorites:

Chad Pennington (-6), NYJ, 2002: Win ATS, Win SU
Marc Bulger (-7), STL, 2003: Loss ATS, Loss SU
Trent Green (-3.5), KC, 2003: Loss ATS, Loss SU
Drew Brees (-5.5), SD, 2004: Loss ATS, Loss SU
Ben Roethlisberger (-8.5), PIT, 2004: Loss ATS, Win SU
Chris Simms (-2.5), TB, 2005: Loss ATS, Loss SU
Eli Manning (-3), NYG, 2005: Loss ATS, Loss SU
Rex Grossman (-3), CHI, 2005: Loss ATS, Loss SU
Philip Rivers (-4.5), SD, 2006: Loss ATS, Loss SU
Jay Cutler (-10), CHI, 2010: Win ATS, Win SU
Matt Schaub (-4.5), HOU, 2012: Win ATS, Win SU
Colin Kaepernick (-3), SF, 2012: Win ATS, Win SU
Nick Foles (-3), PHI, 2013: Loss ATS, Loss SU
Dak Prescott (-5), DAL, 2016: Loss ATS, Loss SU
Jared Goff (-6), LAR, 2017: Loss ATS, Loss SU
Blake Bortles (-8), JAX, 2017: Loss ATS, Win SU
Case Keenum (-5.5), MIN, 2017: Loss ATS, Win SU
Deshaun Watson (-2), HOU, 2018: Loss ATS, Loss SU
Lamar Jackson (-3), BAL, 2018: Loss ATS, Loss SU
Mitchell Trubisky (-6.5), CHI, 2018: Loss ATS, Loss SU
Patrick Mahomes (-4.5), KC, 2018: Win ATS, Win SU
Jimmy Garoppolo (-6.5), SF, 2019: Win ATS, Win SU


Home Underdogs:

Anthony Wright (+1), BAL, 2003: Loss ATS, Loss SU
Carson Palmer/Jon Kitna (+3), CIN, 2005: Loss ATS, Loss SU
Tarvaris Jackson (+3), MIN, 2008: Loss ATS, Loss SU
Matt Cassel (+3), KC, 2010: Loss ATS, Loss SU
Tim Tebow (+8.5), DEN, 2011: Win ATS, Win SU
Alex Smith (+3.5), SF, 2011: Win ATS, Win SU
Cam Newton (+2), CAR, 2013: Loss ATS, Loss SU
Carson Wentz (+2), PHI, 2019: Loss ATS, Loss SU

Road Favorites:

David Garrard (-2), JAX, 2007: Push ATS, Win SU
Matt Ryan (-1), ATL, 2008: Loss ATS, Loss SU
Joe Flacco (-3.5), BAL, 2008: Win ATS, Win SU
Aaron Rodgers (-1), GB, 2009: Loss ATS, Loss SU

Road Underdogs:

Michael Vick (+6.5), ATL, 2002: Win ATS, Win SU
Matt Hasselbeck (+7), SEA, 2003: Win ATS, Loss SU
Byron Leftwich (+8), JAX, 2005: Loss ATS, Loss SU
Tony Romo (+2), DAL, 2006: Win ATS, Loss SU
Todd Collins (+4), WAS, 2007: Loss ATS, Loss SU
Vince Young (+10), TEN, 2007: Loss ATS, Loss SU
Mark Sanchez (+2.5), NYJ, 2009: Win ATS, Win SU
Matthew Stafford (+10.5), DET, 2011: Loss ATS Loss SU
Joe Webb (+10), MIN, 2012: Loss ATS, Loss SU
Andrew Luck (+7), IND, 2012: Loss ATS, Loss SU
Ryan Lindley (+6.5), ARZ, 2014: Loss ATS, Loss SU
Matt Moore (+11), MIA,2016: Loss ATS, Loss SU
Connor Cook (+4), OAK, 2016: Loss ATS, Loss SU
Marcus Mariota (+8), TEN, 2017: Win ATS, Win SU
Tyrod Taylor (+8), BUF, 2017: Win ATS, Loss SU
Josh Allen (+3), BUF, 2019: Loss ATS, Loss SU
Ryan Tannehill (+4.5), TEN, 2019: Win ATS, Win SU
John Wolford (+4.5), LAR, 2020: ??? ATS, ??? SU
Baker Mayfield (+4.5), CLE, 2020: ??? ATS, ??? SU


To sum it up:

Home favorites: 6-16 ATS, 9-13 SU
Home underdogs: 2-6 ATS, 2-6 SU
Road favorites: 1-2-1 ATS, 2-2 SU
Road underdogs: 7-10 ATS, 4-13 SU

Combined Record: 15-34-1 ATS, 16-34 SU

A 15-34-1 spread record sounds quite dubious. The 7-10 road underdog record doesn’t make it seem that bad, but if you ignore some of the talented quarterbacks on that list, like Tony Romo and Matt Hasselbeck, and measure Wolflord with comparable quarterbacks (Todd Collins, Joe Webb, Ryan Lindley, Connor Cook), the track record becomes much worse.

I’m definitely going to be on the Seahawks, but the unit count will depend on Adams and the rest of the injury report.

THURSDAY THOUGHTS: It sounds like Jared Goff might be able to play, which is good news – for Seattle bettors. Rushing Goff back when he’s not 100 percent is asking for trouble, and it’ll give us a better line on the Seahawks. I don’t see this spread falling below -3 because of the possibility of sportsbooks getting middled, but being able to bet -3 with Seattle’s offensive line fully intact is huge.

SATURDAY NOTES: It seems as though Goff will play despite having an injured thumb. Meanwhile, the Seahawks will have their entire offensive line intact for the second time since Week 4, and Jamal Adams will be on the field as well. This is all music to my ears. I may lock in the Seahawks at -3 soon.

FINAL THOUGHTS: Jared Goff is active, but won’t start, according to Jay Glazer. It’ll be John Wolflord again, and yet we’re getting Seattle at just -3 because people thought Goff would play. I love betting against first-time playoff quarterbacks, so the Seahawks would look appealing even if they weren’t going to have their offensive line fully intact for just the second time since Week 4. The best line is -3 -108 at Bookmaker, and I’m going to bet four units on the host. The sharps bet the Rams at +4 and +3.5, but not at +3.

Quick update: This vig/spread has risen in the wake of the Goff news. The line is now -3.5 at Bovada. However, you can still get -3 -113 at Bookmaker.

Tampa Bay Buccaneers (11-5) at Washington Redskins (7-9)
Line: Buccaneers by 10. Total: 44.5.
Saturday, Jan. 9, 8:15 PM


The Matchup. Edge: Buccaneers.

HATE MAIL: I will be posting hate mail here. We got a bit this week:



I wouldn’t say that completely qualifies as hate mail, but the guy did doubt my Pick of the Month.

I couldn’t find new hate mail, but I saw some archived in my inbox. I don’t know if I’ve posted these yet, but here are two:



This guy reminds me of the Most Cowardly Man on the Planet. I’ll have an update on that idiot soon.

Here’s another e-mail I found:



See? I’m a nice guy. I offered this guy help after he told me to “f**k off” – even though he e-mailed me first – but he never replied. I guess my e-mail helped him become a happier person!

TAMPA BAY OFFENSE: Tom Brady might just be a superhuman, evidenced by his ability to play at a high level at the age of 43. However, like all superheroes, he has his weakness as well. He lost two Super Bowls to the Giants because they were able to place heavy pressure on him without blitzing. Brady struggled to score as a result, allowing Eli Manning to game manage his Giants to two victories.

The Redskins can obviously replicate what those Giants teams accomplished. Chase Young, despite being a rookie, is an unstoppable force. The rest of the defensive line is excellent as well. They’ll harass Brady all afternoon, forcing some bad throws. It won’t help Brady’s cause that Mike Evans is out, but this isn’t as dire as it would have been last year because Antonio Brown will just play more snaps.

The Buccaneers will have to ease some pressure off Brady with Ronald Jones runs, but the Redskins are rather stout against the run as well. Perhaps Jones can do some damage as a receiver out of the backfield.

WASHINGTON OFFENSE: Like the Redskins, the Buccaneers have an excellent defensive line. They’d be close in talent if Vita Vea were still available, but Tampa still has a potent bunch up front. The Buccaneers have one of the league’s best run defenses for that reason, which will make it difficult for Antonio Gibson and J.D. McKissic to get much yardage on the ground.

However, the Redskins should still be able to move the chains via Alex Smith. Yes, Alex Smith, and no I’m not on drugs. The Buccaneers have struggled versus the pass for most of the year, as their young cornerbacks haven’t developed as well as the coaching staff had hoped. Pedestrian quarterbacks like Daniel Jones and Jared Goff have torched the Buccaneers, so what’s to stop Smith from doing so?

The Buccaneers won’t be able to cover Terry McLaurin, while Cam Sims has emerged as a capable No. 2 receiver. Tampa will also have to worry about Logan Thomas, who has been a beast in the second half of the season.

RECAP: I’ve joked about this being the first-ever bye for a fifth seed in the playoffs, but I don’t think this is a guaranteed victory for the Buccaneers. Brady is not going to be able to light up the scoreboard because he’ll see so much pressure in his face. Meanwhile, the Tampa secondary can get torched by anyone. As someone who has a futures bet on the Buccaneers to win the Super Bowl, I’m worried.

I’m not overconfident in the Buccaneers’ chances, as you can tell, but I’m willing to bet that the Tampa players will be. For many not named Brady, this will be their first rodeo into the playoffs. They might see themselves as huge favorites battling the pathetic NFC East winner and assume that they can just coast into the second round. Meanwhile, the Redskins will feel completely disrespected, especially in the wake of people saying that they don’t deserve to be in the playoffs because the Eagles tanked.

Regardless, this spread is too high. There are lots of FOMO bets coming in on the heavily bet Buccaneers, but the Redskins seem to be the right play. My calculated line is Tampa -4.5, while the computer model believes -6 is correct. Either way, we’re getting key numbers of six and seven with Washington, making this an easy multi-unit wager.

THURSDAY THOUGHTS: Alex Smith being limited in practice with his calf worries me. What troubles me even more was Ron Rivera telling the media that he wishes he had an extra day for Smith to get ready. I thought Smith would be healthier this week, but if he’s still hobbled by the injury – or sidelined – it’s going to be difficult to bet the Redskins heavily.

SATURDAY NOTES: We still have no idea if Alex Smith, Antonio Gibson and Terry McLaurin will play. I imagine Gibson and McLaurin will be on the field, but it’s not a good sign that Ron Rivera was talking about a quarterback rotation. Then again, perhaps this is a ploy to mess with the Buccaneers. Either way, I’m still going to stick with a Redskins bet, but it won’t be as high as I initially planned because of Smith’s troublesome calf.

FINAL THOUGHTS: I’m too tilted by the Colts’ back-door cover and the stupid Seahawks to make a pick on this game. Alex Smith is out, meaning Taylor Heinicke will start. I like to fade first-time starting quarterbacks, but this line is so high. There’s tons of FOMO bets coming in on the Buccaneers, while the sharps are staying away.