NFL Picks Against the Spread: Week 14, 2020

Indianapolis Colts (8-4) at Las Vegas Raiders (7-5)
Line: Colts by 3. Total: 52.5.
Sunday, Dec. 13, 4:05 PM


The Matchup. Edge: None.

Video of the Week: If you want to see the most awkward news segment ever? Well, you’ve come to the right place (thanks, Luke T.)!



What kind of fun are we going to have today? Lots of fun!

LAS VEGAS OFFENSE: The Raiders nearly lost to the Jets last week, which would have been one of the most humiliating defeats in franchise history. That’s saying a lot, as the Raiders have endured JaMarcus Russell and Art Shell’s second coaching stint in the past 15 years alone.

Blocking was an issue for the Raiders, who clearly missed Trent Brown. I thought Brown would play, but he was a surprise inactive. This allowed the Jets to dominate the trenches and disrupt some drives. That won’t be as much of an issue this week, as Brown is fully expected to finally return from his extended absence. Brown’s presence will help keep the pocket clean for Derek Carr, who should have success throwing into an Indianapolis secondary that could miss its top two safeties once again.

Unfortunately for the Raiders, there are two issues. First, the Colts have played well against tight ends, so Darren Waller won’t be able to dominate once again. Second, Indianapolis’ run defense is superb, and Josh Jacobs will probably miss this game. The Raiders wasted so many downs trying to establish the anemic Devontae Booker and Jalen Richard, and I fear they could do something similar in this contest.

INDIANAPOLIS OFFENSE: The Colts have offensive line issues of their own. Left tackle Anthony Castonzo was already hurt, and Indianapolis lost backup Le’Raven Clark in the Houston victory. Third-string left tackle Chaz Green struggled mightily, which wasn’t a surprise, given how miserably Chaz failed in Portland earlier this year.

The Colts are a terrific team when their stellar offensive line can establish dominance in the trenches, but that wasn’t as prevalent against the Texans. Still, you have to figure that the Colts will have some success opening up lanes for Jonathan Taylor, given that the Raiders just surrendered 100 rushing yards to someone named Ty Johnson.

Meanwhile, the Raiders have some issues in the secondary for Philip Rivers to exploit, provided he gets ample time in the pocket. That may not happen because of the problems at left tackle, but it’s nice that Rivers has finally begun clicking with T.Y. Hilton. Better late than never!

RECAP: I’m not quite sure where I’m going with this game yet because the injury report will be very telling. However, I think it’s important to recognize the line value we’re not getting with the Raiders. We just saw Las Vegas nearly lose to the Jets, while the Colts rebounded with their eighth win of the year. Yet, this line has stubbornly refused to move off the advance spread, which was Indianapolis -2.5. I was expecting a move to -3, or even -3.5, which would have given us some nice value with the Raiders.

As it stands now, I’ll back the Colts because the most likely scenario is Indianapolis winning this game by three, but the injury report could change this pick.

THURSDAY THOUGHTS: It was so frustrating that I got the Trent Brown news wrong last week. He’ll be back, but Gabe Jackson missed Wednesday’s practice. Jackson’s absence would completely nullify Brown’s return. Meanwhile, Anthony Castonzo was spotted at Thursday’s practice. It’s unclear if he’ll play this week, but his return would be huge.

SATURDAY NOTES: The Colts have had some injury woes the past two weeks, but they’re completely behind those. They’re completely healthy, assuming Anthony Castonzo is available to play after practicing Thursday and Friday. The Raiders are healthier, too, with Trent Brown and Johnathan Abram likely to return this week. Still, the Colts will be tough for the Raiders to beat, so I’m going to bet them for a couple of units.

SUNDAY MORNING NOTES: The sharps just bet the Raiders heavily at +3, bringing this line down to +2.5. I wonder if that means we’ll have some surprise injury news going against the Colts.

FINAL THOUGHTS: The Raiders will have Trent Brown, Josh Jacobs and Johnathan Abram playing in this game. That might explain why the sharps bet the Raiders, as I mentioned in the Sunday morning notes. I’ve decided not to bet this game.

New York Jets (0-12) at Seattle Seahawks (8-4)
Line: Seahawks by 16. Total: 48.5.
Sunday, Dec. 13, 4:05 PM


The Matchup. Edge: Seahawks.

The 2020 Adventures of Tom Brady’s Haircuts are underway!



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SEATTLE OFFENSE: I was shocked that the Seahawks lost to the Giants. Their biggest issue was that the offensive line faltered. New York dominated in the trenches, resulting in some sacks and errant throws from Russell Wilson.

Wilson could face similar issues in this contest because the best part of the Jets’ defense is the front line. While New York has some major liabilities at linebacker and cornerback, the defensive front is excellent, and it’ll create some issues for Wilson and Chris Carson.

That said, the liabilities at cornerback will be exploited. When Wilson has time in the pocket, he’ll easily connect with D.K. Metcalf and Tyler Lockett, neither of whom will have issues beating coverage.

NEW YORK OFFENSE: It’s been rare that the Jets have had their scoring unit fully intact. Earlier in the year, when the offensive line was healthy, the receiving corps was decimated by injury, and vice versa. Last week was the first time that Sam Darnold was protected by four starting blockers and had the privilege of throwing to his top three wideouts.

The results spoke for themselves. Darnold had a stretch in which he committed several turnovers, but he had a brilliant second half in which he scored an apparent back-door touchdown and then took the lead following a Henry Ruggs fumble. Darnold would have come away with the victory if it wasn’t for Gregg Williams’ incompetence.

Darnold has an even easier matchup in this contest. The Seahawks’ major problems in the secondary are well documented, and they’ll be apparent in this contest, given the receiving talent Darnold has at his disposal.

RECAP: I can’t believe it, but I considered betting the Jets. I never thought I would do this in 2020, but here we are.

The Seahawks have major problems right now concerning their offensive line and secondary. The Jets, conversely, are as healthy as they’ve ever been offensively. There’s a good chance they keep this close, and even if they don’t, the potential for the back-door touchdown is certainly there.

However, Wilson is coming off a loss, so I expect him to play his best football. Wilson is 24-11 against the spread following a defeat, and he’s even had success as a large favorite in this regard, owning a 6-3 ATS record when favored by double digits.

After some consideration of taking the Jets, I’ve come to my senses and decided to back the Seahawks. I have no confidence in this selection at the moment, but if the Jets have some extra, unexpected injuries, I may end up betting Seattle.

THURSDAY THOUGHTS: Quinton Dunbar has been activated off injured reserve, which is huge to improve Seattle’s woeful pass defense. Meanwhile, the Jets will be missing Denzel Mimsy, meaning the Jets will have less of a chance of a back-door cover. I may end up betting the Seahawks for a few units.

SATURDAY NOTES: The Jets have been keeping some of their games close lately, covering three of their previous four contests. However, that’s about to change. The Seahawks are much better than the teams the Jets covered against – Raiders, Chargers, Patriots – and New York has a new slew of injuries. The Jets will be down two offensive linemen (Alex Lewis, Greg Van Roten), potentially two receivers (Denzel Mims, Jamison Crowder), two safeties (Ashtyn Davis, Bradley McDougald) and their top edge rusher, Jordan Jenkins. The Seahawks, meanwhile, will have a healthy offensive line for the first time since Week 9. Coming off a loss, I expect Russell Wilson to be playing at the top of his game to make up for the injuries at cornerback.

SUNDAY MORNING NOTES: This spread continues to rise with sharp action on Seattle, but I don’t think it’ll go up too much more. I’d wait and see if it comes back down.

FINAL THOUGHTS: Jamison Crowder will play, though there’s no telling how healthy he’ll be. Conversely, the Seahawks won’t have Carlos Dunlap. I still like the Seahawks, but I’m going to drop the unit count to two, with the best line being -16.5 -105 at FanDuel. As mentioned earlier, the sharps bet the Seahawks to this number.

Green Bay Packers (9-3) at Detroit Lions (5-7)
Line: Packers by 7.5. Total: 55.5.
Sunday, Dec. 13, 4:25 PM


The Matchup. Edge: None.

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GREEN BAY OFFENSE: If it weren’t for Patrick Mahomes, Aaron Rodgers would be the run-away winner for MVP at the moment. Rodgers has been amazing this season, responding greatly to his team wasting a first-round pick on a quarterback. Imagine where they’d be with Chase Claypool instead of Jordan Love!

Rodgers has a terrific matchup in this contest. The Lions have been missing their top two cornerbacks, so I have no idea how they’re going to cover Davante Adams, or even Allen Lazard for that matter. Both should dominate, as should Robert Tonyan over the middle of the field.

The Lions are also poor versus the run, so the Packers will trample their NFC North foe. I’d say Aaron Jones will have a huge performance, but the Packers tend to limit Jones in easier matchups, so Jamaal Williams could have a huge hand in bulldozing Green Bay.

DETROIT OFFENSE: Matthew Stafford wasn’t quite right in the two games prior to Thanksgiving, as he was clearly hindered by his thumb injury. The long layoff really helped Stafford, as he showed more zip on his passes against the Bears, allowing him to pull the upset, even without Kenny Golladay.

It remains to be seen if Golladay will suit up, but there should be a decent chance that he’ll return to the field. Golladay was close to playing against the Bears, so he should be available. If so, that’ll be huge because it’ll keep Jaire Alexander preoccupied with him, rather than Marvin Jones. If Golladay is smothered, Stafford will have plenty of options at his disposal, including Jones and T.J. Hockenson.

Count D’Andre Swift as part of that group, too. Swift was also close to playing against the Bears, and there’s an even better chance he’ll return. If so, he’ll be able to take advantage of the Packers’ poor run defense.

RECAP: This spread is too high, provided Golladay and Swift return. The Packers are one of the better teams in the NFL, but they’re also flawed right now because they don’t have two starting offensive linemen. Thus, the offense won’t be as efficient as it would be otherwise, which would allow the Lions to achieve a back-door cover.

If the Lions have all of their offensive weapons back, I don’t see why they couldn’t sneak into the back door. With this spread, three, six and seven are key numbers that are wide open for us to win with the underdog.

I’m going to bet three units on the Lions if Golladay and Swift return. If not, I’ll decrease my unit count accordingly.

THURSDAY THOUGHTS: It was disappointing to see Kenny Golladay miss Wednesday and Thursday’s practices. There’s still time for him to get in some action on Friday, but I’m not optimistic about him playing. I’ll be on the Lions either way.

SATURDAY NOTES: It’s disappointing that Kenny Golladay won’t return, and it’s also not ideal that the Lions will be without two offensive linemen (Halapouli Vaitai, Tyrell Crosby) and two cornerbacks (Jeff Okudah, Desmond Trufant). However, D’Andre Swift will be back, and there’s a chance Da’Shawn Hand will be too, which would help the run defense. The Packers, meanwhile, are still down two offensive linemen, so they could have trouble covering such a high number with the back-door cover being open for Detroit. I’m not sure how many units I’ll be betting yet because this spread is off the board at every sportsbook except DraftKings and FanDuel. I’m currently trying to find out why that is.

SATURDAY NOTES II: Still no word on why this spread is off the board in most sportsbooks. It could be because of a potential virus breakout in Detroit’s locker room because Everson Griffen tested positive.

SUNDAY MORNING NOTES: The Lions have so many injuries, which would explain why the sharps have been betting the Packers heavily on Sunday morning. Hopefully we’ll get a +10 with Detroit.

FINAL THOUGHTS: The sharps bet this line up to -9, but I still like the Lions to potentially keep this game close at the end, so I’m going to bet a couple of units on them. The best line is +9 -108 at Bookmaker.

Atlanta Falcons (4-8) at Los Angeles Chargers (3-9)
Line: Chargers by 1.5. Total: 49.
Sunday, Dec. 13, 4:25 PM


The Matchup. Edge: Chargers.

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SAN ANGELES OFFENSE: Zero points. I confidently picked the Patriots last week, but I never imagined the Chargers scoring zero points against them. Justin Herbert has enjoyed some nice performances this season, but he had a ghastly showing against New England.

While the zero points were unexpected, Herbert’s struggles certainly were. Herbert has done poorly in three games recently, losing in ugly fashion to the Dolphins, Bills and Patriots. All three teams have great, defensive-minded coaches, with Bill Belichick being the best of the bunch. Luckily for Herbert, he won’t face such a challenge versus Atlanta.

Herbert will also be able to target his favorite options again. Belichick did a great job of erasing Keenan Allen and Austin Ekeler, and Sean McDermott and Brian Flores did the same to Allen. The Falcons don’t have the personnel to cover Allen or the other Charger receivers, while Ekeler figures to do well as a receiver out of the backfield.

ATLANTA OFFENSE: I expected more out of the Falcons than just 16 points last week, given that Julio Jones was back in action. Atlanta has been much better with Jones on the field, but horrible play-calling and a non-existent rushing attack limited the Falcons against their arch rival.

Matt Ryan’s outlook against the Chargers will depend on the injury report. This could be the first time in which Chris Harris and Casey Hayward are on the field in healthy fashion for the first time since Week 3. Both played last week, but Hayward wasn’t quite 100 percent because he was questionable ahead of the game. Having both Harris and Hayward on the field at the same time would be enormous against the Atlanta receivers.

The Chargers’ weakness is defending the run, as evidenced last week when Cam Newton and his backs trampled all over them. The Chargers greatly missed Denzel Perryman, so having him back will help his team limit Atlanta’s rushing attack.

RECAP: Who are the Falcons to be favored on the road against a competent team? I’ve been thinking that they’re underrated, but after seeing this spread, I’m not so sure anymore.

And yes, the Chargers are a competent team. They’ve lost several close games this year, including to the Saints, Chiefs and Buccaneers. They just got trashed against the Patriots, but it was a very difficult matchup because Belichick was going to confuse Herbert. The rookie quarterback will bounce back in this game.

The Chargers, as a whole, will want to rebound. They were just embarrassed in a 45-0 loss, so I’m expecting a much better effort from them. The Falcons, conversely, could be flat after losing their “Super Bowl” against the Saints.

I’m also loving the value we’re getting with the Chargers. This was a pick ’em on the advance line, yet the Falcons are favored now because of misleading results and overreaction.

I’m going to bet on the Chargers, with the size of this wager depending on the injury report.

THURSDAY THOUGHTS: Julio Jones is back to missing practice, so there are a ton of injury questions on both sides of the ball. I’m looking forward to seeing the final practice report on Friday.

SATURDAY NOTES: A possible inactive to watch for on Sunday is Kaleb McGary. The Atlanta right tackle is questionable with some sort of a personal matter. If he can’t play, the Falcons will be down multiple offensive linemen versus a great Charger pass rush. My unit count will be adjusted accordingly.

SUNDAY MORNING NOTES: Pro action has made the Chargers a favorite, and rightfully so. I’m actually going to lock in the Chargers for four units in the wake of Kaleb McGary’s injury news. The best line I see is -1.5 -110 at BetUS.

FINAL THOUGHTS: I was punished a bit for locking in this game because there’s a -1 -103 available at Bookmaker. However, the line hasn’t really moved much otherwise, and I still love the Chargers. The sharps did earlier when the Chargers were underdogs.

New Orleans Saints (10-2) at Philadelphia Eagles (3-8-1)
Line: Saints by 7.5. Total: 42.5.
Sunday, Dec. 13, 4:25 PM


The Matchup. Edge: Saints.

Emmitt on the Brink Season 13 continues! ESPN headquarters attempts to recover from Gretchen Umbridge’s attack, as the ritual to revive Emmitt Snow Jr. begins.

NEW ORLEANS OFFENSE: Taysom Hill is evolving before our very eyes. He was mostly a runner in his first two starts, though it’s worth noting that he didn’t need to do anything but run against the quarterback-less Broncos. Hill took a big step forward last week, thriving as a passer for the first time.

Hill was excellent in all facets against the Falcons, converting numerous third-and-long situations. This should bode well for Hill in this contest, given that the Eagles struggle to defend the pass. They may be even worse in that regard if Darius Slay can’t take the field. Slay got hurt in the second half of the Green Bay loss while being humiliated by Davante Adams. Even if he plays, he won’t be able to cover Michael Thomas.

The Eagles are much better versus the run than the pass, but they struggle to defend receiving backs because of their horrible linebacking corps. Getting Alvin Kamara in space could produce some big gains.

PHILADELPHIA OFFENSE: The Carson Wentz era may not be over in Philadelphia, but it’s at least taking a much-needed break. Wentz has been horrible this year, so Doug Pederson finally made the right call to bench him. It’s unclear if Wentz has some undisclosed injury, or if he’s fallen out of love with football, but he’s not nearly the same quarterback who was once in MVP consideration.

Jalen Hurts has been named the starter for this game, which won’t end well for the Eagles. Philadelphia’s offensive line is an abomination, so the Saints’ dominant defensive front should win in the trenches and place heavy pressure on Hurts, who will be forced into some turnovers.

It would help Hurts if the Eagles could establish the run, but Doug Pederson has shown no desire to do that with Miles Sanders. For some reason, Pederson and his staff are calling runs for Jordan Howard, which is just mind-boggling. The Saints have a great run defense that will be able to shut down all of this anyway.

RECAP: This is a colossal mismatch in every regard. The Saints should be able to dominate the Eagles in all facets. It shouldn’t surprise anyone if this game is a blowout.

That said, it’s difficult to bet the Saints in this situation, even against an Enron-type team like the Eagles. The problem is that the Saints have to battle the Chiefs next week. They’ll have to put some extra preparation into beating Kansas City, so there’s a chance they’ll look past the Eagles.

I wouldn’t blame anyone for picking the Eagles for that reason, but I’m still going to side with the Saints because this is such a lopsided affair.

THURSDAY THOUGHTS: I wish I knew how focused the Saints would be for this game. I’d bet them heavily if I knew they’d be fully prepared mentally for the Eagles, but there’s a good chance they’ll look past them with the Chiefs on the horizon.

SATURDAY NOTES: There are some new injuries for the Eagles. Jason Peters has been placed on injured reserve, so that’s yet another blow to the offensive line. The Eagles will also be down two linebackers, with T.J. Edwards joining Nathan Gerry on the injury report. Meanwhile, the Saints will have all of their injured players back, save for Drew Brees. I would bet heavily on the Saints if I didn’t think they could look ahead to playing the Chiefs next week. The sharps aren’t concerned, as they moved this line up to -7.5.

SATURDAY NOTES II: The Saints are the second leg of the teaser. They may not cover if they’re looking ahead, but they should still be able to win outright.

SUNDAY MORNING NOTES: The sharps haven’t touched this game, which isn’t a surprise. The Saints have a great matchup, but might be unfocused with the Chiefs next.

FINAL THOUGHTS: Nothing has changed since this morning, except some -8s have popped up in some sportsbooks. The public is betting the Saints heavily, and there’s no pushback heading the Eagles’ direction. Once again, I’d bet the Saints if I didn’t think they’d look past the Eagles. If you want to bet the Saints, you can get them at -7.5 -102 at Bookmaker.

Washington Redskins (5-7) vs. San Francisco 49ers (5-7)
Line: 49ers by 3. Total: 43.5.
Sunday, Dec. 13, 4:25 PM
at Arizona


The Matchup. Edge: None.

A reminder that Jerks of the Week for this week is up, so just click the link. This week’s jerks entry is called Joey and the Diaper-Trained Duck.

SAN FRANCISCO OFFENSE: With Nick Mullens under center, and George Kittle sidelined, the 49ers need to run the ball in order to move the chains effectively. Many expected them to do so Monday night against the Bills, but Buffalo’s ground defense was better with Matt Milano on the field.

The 49ers will have a tougher time moving the chains on the ground in this contest. The Redskins have a stellar defensive line that just limited Benny Snell to single-digit yards. I know that’s not a great barometer, but it’s at least somewhat of an indication that the Redskins will be able to put the clamps on Raheem Mostert and Jeff Wilson Jr.

The stats say that the Redskins are even better versus the pass, but that’s not correct. The Redskins have simply feasted on inferior quarterbacks for most of this season. Mullens, however, belongs in that group, especially if he can’t rely on his rushing attack to give him easier passing opportunities.

WASHINGTON OFFENSE: The Redskins lost Antonio Gibson in the first quarter against the Steelers. Their offense was very sluggish for the rest of the opening half, but they made the appropriate adjustments and were able to get J.D. McKissic in space to move the chains.

The Redskins did this versus a depleted Steeler linebacking corps that lost Devin Bush’s replacement, Robert Spillane. The 49ers, conversely, have an excellent group of linebackers, so they’ll be able to limit McKissic as a receiver out of the backfield, as well as the emerging Logan Thomas.

It’ll be difficult for Alex Smith to attack downfield as well. It was nice to see Cam Sims emerge as a potential viable second threat across from Terry McLaurin, but the 49ers have an excellent pair of cornerbacks to limit Washington’s receivers.

RECAP: The 49ers match up well against the Redskins, and I’m glad to see that this spread has dropped a bit. A -3 should be available at some point, which is a huge difference in comparison to the advance line of -4.

I think this is an overreaction to what we saw Monday. Had the Steelers not dropped seven passes, they would’ve beaten the Redskins easily, and we’d see a higher number as a result. Also, people were disappointed with San Francisco losing to Buffalo. The Bills are a great team, so there’s no shame in that.

If we get a better number, I may bet on the 49ers. I’ll keep this for zero units at the moment.

THURSDAY THOUGHTS: This spread has indeed dropped to -3, so I’m going to remain on the 49ers with this new line value. I don’t have a good feel for this game at the moment, but that could change based on the injury report.

SATURDAY NOTES: The 49ers suddenly have many injuries in the trenches. Of course, we already knew that about the defensive line because Nick Bosa and Dee Ford have been out for quite some time. However, the 49ers will be without two interior players, Kevin Givens and D.J. Jones. More importantly, San Francisco will be without two starting offensive linemen, as Tom Compton will be sidelined with a concussion. This means the 49ers will somehow have to block the Redskins’ elite front without Compton and Ben Garland. This gives the Redskins a huge edge, so I’m not only going to switch to them; I’m going to bet them for several units. The sharps are betting the Redskins aggressively, so I’m going to lock them in now. Bovada’s +3 -115 is the best number.

SUNDAY MORNING NOTES: As mentioned in the Saturday notes, the sharps have been betting the Redskins heavily, so I’d bet them before this line falls to +2.5.

FINAL THOUGHTS: I’m surprised this line didn’t move to +2.5, especially with K’Waun Williams being ruled out for this game. The sharps bet the Redskins aggressively at +3.5 and a bit at +3, but the heavy money stopped today. Regardless, I still love the Redskins. The best line I see is +3 -113 at Bookmaker.

Pittsburgh Steelers (11-1) at Buffalo Bills (9-3)
Line: Bills by 2.5. Total: 48.5.
Sunday, Dec. 13, 8:20 PM


The Matchup. Edge: Bills.

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PITTSBURGH OFFENSE: The Steelers have been incredibly sloppy the past two weeks. Somehow, they’ve dropped a combined 13 passes against the Ravens and Redskins. Mike Tomlin chewed out his team following the six-drop debacle versus Baltimore, and yet his players were even worse in that regard the following week.

I expect the Steelers to be more focused following a truly embarrassing loss. However, it’s worth noting that this is a very difficult matchup. The Bills have one of the top pass defenses in the NFL, and their excellent cornerbacks will make it difficult for the Pittsburgh wideouts to get open.

The Bills are weaker to the run than the pass, which gives them a matchup edge in this game because the Steelers don’t pound the rock very effectively. It’ll help if James Conner and Maurkice Pouncey return to action, but I don’t expect the Steelers to have much success in this regard.

BUFFALO OFFENSE: The Steelers were guilty of seven drops, but they still wouldn’t have lost had they just stopped Alex Smith and his one-man gang of receivers. They couldn’t do that, however, as Smith torched the Steelers with throws to guys named Cam Sims and Steven Sims Jr.

It’s clear that the Steelers are weak to the pass, which doesn’t bode well for them in this matchup. Josh Allen had a two-game swoon earlier this season when he was banged up, but he’s been excellent otherwise this year. Allen just torched a 49er secondary that is packed with more talent than Pittsburgh possesses.

The Steelers excel at rushing the quarterback and stopping the run, but the Bills can overcome that. Allen is well protected, and the Bills don’t really rely on the ground attack.

RECAP: I hate that the Steelers lost because I wanted to bet the Bills to pull the upset over the undefeated team. Pittsburgh, however, lost its luster in the wake of the loss to the Redskins.

The Bills are now favored, and rightfully so. I usually like to go against big line movements like this, but Buffalo appears to be the right side. The Steelers will be better with Maurkice Pouncey back in the lineup, but they still have major problems that the Bills can exploit. Unfortunately, our line value is gone, so this isn’t a very good betting opportunity at the moment.

THURSDAY THOUGHTS: The Steelers could miss Joe Haden and Robert Spillane, neither of whom practiced Wednesday. These potential absences would certainly hurt, and they’d convince me to bet the Bills.

SATURDAY NOTES: I was really hoping for a couple of Steeler injuries. If one of Maurkice Pouncey or Steven Nelson were sidelined once more, I’d have a huge play on the Bills because Pittsburgh would have multiple injuries at key positions in this matchup. Unfortunately, both will return. Still, the Bills seem like a good play under -3, as the Steelers will be weaker without Joe Haden and Robert Spillane.

SUNDAY MORNING NOTES: I was so close to locking in the Bills, but I just saw the spread drop to -2. The sharps have decided to bet Pittsburgh for some reason. I still like Buffalo.

FINAL THOUGHTS: The line hasn’t moved from that drop to -2 that I referenced in the Sunday morning notes. There’s mixed sharp action on this game, with the pros betting the Bills earlier in the week and the Steelers on Sunday morning. The best line is Buffalo -2 -108 at Bookmaker.

Baltimore Ravens (7-5) at Cleveland Browns (9-3)
Line: Ravens by 3. Total: 45.5.
Monday, Dec. 14, 8:15 PM


The Matchup. Edge: Ravens.

This week on ESPN, we’re going to have awful announcers calling the shots instead the great preseason homers like Kevin Reilly, Ron Wolfley and Don Tollefson, inept ESPN guys Emmitt, Herman Edwards, and aloof people like Dan Fouts and Jay Cutler. Here’s what it would sound like if these seven dudes (and some special guests) were calling this game:

Reilly: Welcome to the city of Baltimore, home of the Baltimore Oreos and the Baltimore Colts. Tonight, the Baltimore Colts take on the Cleveland Browns. Guys, no one cares about these stupid teams because Joe Flacco and Baker Maynard suck. What matters most is the Employee of the Month award our station is running. Whoever wins Employee of the Month will get $200 in gift certificates, which I will use to buy more Eagles bobbleheads!

Emmitt: Daniel, I think you not seeing the big picture, almost like you too deep in the tree to see the leaf. If you care so much about Employee of the Moon club, you should probably care more about Employee of the Year club because there are five year in a moon.

Reilly: Emmitt, we haven’t studied moons and years math yet in home school, but I’ll have to ask Mother if this is correct. But that’s neither here nor there. I really need the money to buy bobbleheads!

Tollefson: Kevin, I’ll give you $200 if you have your mom sign this paper for me. I promise it’s not the deed to your house, or anything.

Reilly: Tolly, can you please ask my New Daddy to handle all grown-up matters? I’m only 67, so Mother doesn’t let me touch grown-up things like important legal papers, tax documents or the stove.

Jason Witten: Hello, my name is Jason Witten and I just came out of retirement. Guys, I heard some talk about legal papers. Legal papers are papers that are legal. If they weren’t legal papers, they would be illegal papers. Because if you have something that’s not legal, it’s illegal. Because illegal is when something is illegal, unlike when it’s legal, and when something is legal, it’s legal and not illegal. And then if it’s illegal papers, then it’s not legal papers, but illegal papers, except if it’s not even papers. Because if you have papers that aren’t papers, then you don’t have papers.

Reilly: Shut up Gay Novacek. Let’s focus on the Employee of the Month award. Guys, will you vote for me? I really need the money for Eagles bobbleheads!

Fouts: And here’s what he means by vote. When you vote, you vote for something to happen or for someone to be elected. That’s what a vote is. It’s when you vote.

Wolfley: DAN, I THINK I’M GOING TO VOTE IN THIS EMPLOYEE OF THE MONTH ELECTION. MY VOTE IS FOR THIS STAPLER. IT REMINDS ME OF MY COUSIN, A STAPLER WHO MARRIED A CYCLOPS WITH A MUSTACHE AND SAUCE ON THE BOYS.

Reilly: No, you’re supposed to vote for me, you idiot! No matter, the last time I checked, I was up by 500 votes! And I asked New Daddy to be a poll watcher, so no dirty tricks happen! Right, New Daddy?

Cutler: Zzzzz…

Reilly: New Daddy, wake up! I need to know if anyone cheated!

Alyssa Milano: Ex-ca-use me! Why is it that a man is asked to be a poll watcher!? Why can’t a woman be a poll watcher!? Woman can watch polls! We can do anything! We can even kick the ball 30 yards on a kickoff! I just hope she identifies as a girl because I don’t want to misgender anyone! I better call 9-1-1 to make sure I didn’t do that!

Station Employee: Excuse me, I’d like to announce the Employee of the Month winner. The winner is Charles Davis!

Reilly: WHAT!? BUT I WAS 500 POINTS AHEAD!!!

Charles Davis: Kevin, looks like you lost this award, Kevin. Let’s see how you lost this award, Kevin. Some votes for me were counted eight times, Kevin. Other votes for me were counted nine times, Kevin. Other votes for me were counted 10 times, Kevin. I had some of my dead relatives vote for me, Kevin. My great-great-great-great grandpa Ludwig Von Davis voted for me, Kevin. My great-great-great-great-great-great uncle Aloysius Davis voted for me, Kevin. My unborn child voted for me, too, Kevin. We had some Xeroxed votes come in for me, Kevin. We had the voting machine hooked up to the Internet so it could be hacked by the Swiss, Kevin. Here are some votes we found in a suitcase under the table, Kevin. Can you think of a way I secured this win, Kevin? I’ll give you three guesses, Kevin.

Reilly: YOU SECURED THIS WIN BECAUSE YOU’RE AN A**HOLE CHEATER AND NOW YOU’RE GOING TO BUY ALL THE EAGLES BOBBLEHEADS I WANTED TO, AND I WON’T BE ABLE TO GET THOSE BOBBLE HEADS, YOU DICK!!! We’ll be back after this!

BALTIMORE OFFENSE: We haven’t seen the Ravens play yet, as of this writing, because Baltimore will be battling Dallas tonight! Lamar Jackson has been cleared to return from his minor illness, and I expect him to play well against the Cowboys, who have a miserable defense.

A matchup against the Browns might be different, depending on the injury situation. Denzel Ward has missed the past couple of games, which has created a major void in the secondary because Greedy Williams has been sidelined as well. If Jackson can have some time in the pocket, he’d be able to locate Marquise Brown and the other receivers for nice gains, provided the injury report doesn’t look any brighter.

However, the offensive line performing well is a major question mark because the blocking has declined in the wake of Ronnie Stanley’s injury. The Browns have some great talent on their defensive front, so they should be able to win in the trenches.

CLEVELAND OFFENSE: Baker Mayfield was spectacular against the Titans. He fired four touchdowns in the opening half alone, and he would have thrown six if it wasn’t for a dropped score and Jarvis Landry being tackled just shy of the goal line. If Mayfield continues to perform on this level, the Browns will be difficult to defeat.

However, it must be noted that Mayfield took advantage of a very easy matchup last week. The Titans have zero pass rush and some injuries in their secondary, so Mayfield didn’t face any resistance. He’ll certainly deal with some this week, as Baltimore can get after the quarterback well and cover even better than that. The Ravens have a stellar secondary, and their cornerbacks won’t face too much of a challenge against Cleveland’s Odell Beckham-less receiving corps.

Mayfield won’t have too many positive down-and-distance situations either because the Browns won’t have much success running the ball against the Ravens. Baltimore will have Calais Campbell and Brandon Williams on the field at the same time, and the team has been great versus the rush when both have played.

RECAP: The Ravens were -2.5 on the advance line, yet this spread is just a pick ’em now. Why did it move 2.5 points? The only reason is Cleveland’s blowout win over Tennessee, but that was a misleading win because the Titans were nowhere near as good as their record said they were. Now, the Browns are greatly overrated.

I’ll take the value with the Ravens. They’re much healthier now than they were a couple of weeks ago, so I expect them to perform better moving forward into the playoffs.

I’ll have a definitive pick for this during Thursday Thoughts because we’ll know exactly what transpired in the Baltimore-Dallas game. Check back later, or follow me @walterfootball for updates.

THURSDAY THOUGHTS: The Ravens were favored by one point to open, which was still lower than they were on the advance spread. However, the line has risen to -2.5 because of what might be sharp action (not clear yet.) My pick will depend on the Cleveland injuries.

SATURDAY NOTES: Calais Campbell failed to practice all week and is listed as questionable. His status is very important in determining the outcome of this game. Meanwhile, the Browns will be without their top two cornerbacks again, though I’m not sure Lamar Jackson can completely take advantage of that. I’m going to stick with the Ravens as a non-wager for now, but that may change come Monday.

SUNDAY MORNING NOTES: The sharps have bet the Ravens up to -3, but I can’t imagine that they’ll keep betting them at that number.

FINAL THOUGHTS: I was so close to changing my pick. With this line move to -3, there’s suddenly good value on the Browns. However, the sharps have been betting the Ravens, even at this number. Cleveland’s injuries at cornerback is the deciding factor for this pick, but I really could see this game going either way. If you want to bet Baltimore, the best line is -3 -115 at Bovada.