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TAMPA BAY OFFENSE: So many people were down on the Buccaneers, and particularly Tom Brady, following the loss to the Bears, but I didn't think this was fair to Brady. He was playing with no Chris Godwin and a hobbled Mike Evans. He just had no chance against a tough Chicago defense.
I was looking forward to seeing how Brady would perform with a healthy Evans and Godwin playing a full game with him for the first time all year. We got that this past Sunday, but Brady didn't need to do anything. He simply let his defense do all the work. Instead, he played the role of a game manager, all while repeatedly hooking up with Rob Gronkowski, who looked revitalized for the first time in years.
Brady will have to do more against the Raiders, but this is a good matchup. Las Vegas' pass rush is lackluster, so Brady will have plenty of time to navigate through an underwhelming secondary. Unlike the Packers, the Raiders don't have anyone resembling Jaire Alexander to completely erase Evans. Brady should thrive, especially when considering that the Raiders have been blitzing more this season. Brady, like all great passing quarterbacks, is excellent versus the blitz.
LAS VEGAS OFFENSE: The Raiders have one of the better offensive lines in the NFL now that Trent Brown is healthy. There was a time earlier in the season when betting against them was fruitful because the Raiders were missing both Brown and Richie Incognito. Brown's return was enormous in the victory over the Chiefs.
Brown's presence will be even more important against the Buccaneers. Tampa has one of the top defensive lines in the NFL, as Aaron Rodgers discovered this past Sunday. However, Rodgers was under heavy siege when David Bakhtiari suffered an injury. With the Raiders possessing a mostly healthy front, Derek Carr has a better chance of having a clean pocket.
This will be imperative because of how dominant the Buccaneers are versus the run. Carr should be able to take advantage of the Buccaneers' weakness against tight ends. The Raiders, of course, have one of the top players at the position in the entire league. It'll be very difficult for Tampa Bay to deal with Darren Waller.
RECAP: This doesn't seem like a very appealing game to bet. I don't like the idea of going against Brady when he's not a large favorite. Brady's spread record over his entire career is phenomenal, and if you've been fading him, you're probably living in a cardboard box right now. You might as well have shorted GameStop!
That said, this seems like a very rough spot for the Buccaneers. They're coming off a huge win against the Packers, and this contest is far less significant. This means far more to the Raiders, who have some nice offensive matchup edges against the Raiders.
Ultimately, I've decided to just go with Brady. If you want to bet this game, make sure you get Tampa Bay -3 because the most likely result of this game is the Buccaneers winning by three.
THURSDAY THOUGHTS: The predictors love the Buccaneers. The computer model projects this to be Tampa Bay -6, while DVOA is even more bullish at -6.5. However, this spread was taken off the board because of a potential breakout of a minor illness in the Raiders' locker room. Trent Brown has been infected with this minor illness, and there's some very slight concern that the rest of the Raiders' offensive linemen might have an 80-percent chance of being completely symptom-free.
SATURDAY NOTES: All of the Raider offensive linemen could miss this game. However, I wouldn't count on it. Wink, wink. If all the Raider offensive linemen play, I will be betting the Raiders. Let's see what the inactives list looks like. There's still no line posted on this game, so we'll have to wait until Sunday.
SUNDAY MORNING NOTES: The Raiders' offensive line will be intact, save for Trent Brown and Richie Incognito. I wonder if the Raiders will feel disrespected after being moved off the Sunday night game. I'll have an official pick around 3:30 p.m.
FINAL THOUGHTS: It's confirmed that the Raiders will have most of their offensive linemen in this game, which is huge. The Raiders are pissed about the game being moved, so I'm going to pick them. However, I'm not doing this with much confidence because they're still down Brown and Incognito. If you like the Buccaneers, you can get -3.5 at Bookmaker. The line is +4 elsewhere.
The Motivation. Edge: Raiders.
The Buccaneers could be flat off their blowout win versus the Packers.
San Francisco 49ers (2-3) at New England Patriots (2-2) Line: Patriots by 2.5. Total: 45. Sunday, Oct. 25, 4:25 PM
The Matchup. Edge: Patriots.
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NEW ENGLAND OFFENSE: I mentioned in the opener that I'm disappointed in myself that I didn't bet the Broncos heavily in Week 6. The Patriots were down three offensive linemen entering the Denver contest, as Shaq Mason and James Ferentz were sidelined with minor illnesses, and David Andrews was already injured. Things got worse during the game, as tackle Jermaine Eluemunor left with an injury. Thus, the Patriots were down four offensive linemen against a front with talent. They couldn't block, which is why they were limited to just 12 points.
It's unclear which offensive linemen will play in this game. Eluemunor's status is unknown, and it usually takes people two weeks to overcome a minor illness these days, so it's possible that the Patriots will be down four blockers again. This will be problematic against Javon Kinlaw, Arik Armstead and perhaps even Dee Ford, who is eligible to come off injured reserve.
While it's unclear if Ford will return, the 49ers got some great news last week when Emmanuel Moseley came off injury to start alongside Jason Verrett in the secondary. The 49ers shut down the talented Ram receivers, so they shouldn't have much of an issue dealing with New England's lackluster receiving corps. The linebacking corps, on the other hand, could have issues with Cam Newton if Kwon Alexander is out again.
SAN FRANCISCO OFFENSE: Kyle Shanahan is a terrific play-caller, and he's been able to out-fox several inept defensive coaches this year. The Rams, clearly missing Wade Phillips, had no idea what was coming this past Sunday night.
Call me crazy, but I don't see Shanahan having the same success against Bill Belichick, especially with Raheem Mostert sidelined. Mostert was such a huge presence in the 49ers' backfield, but he won't be available. Jerick McKinnon is a fine replacement, but the 49ers won't be the same without Mostert.
Of course, San Francisco will look to get George Kittle heavily involved in the offense. The Patriots are exceptional at stopping tight ends, however, as they even did a number on Travis Kelce a couple of weeks ago.
RECAP: I'll be hoping for some Patriot linemen to return this week because we've gotten some phenomenal line value with the host. The advance spread on this game was New England -5.5. Now, it's not even -3! The Patriots are favored by just 2.5 points, which seems like an insane move. The other predictions agree. My calculated spread is New England -4.5, which is half a point shy of the computer model's -5.
I'd love to bet the Patriots, but we need some offensive linemen back from injury and minor illnesses. If the Patriots are down four blockers again, I can't back them. In fact, the 49ers would probably end up being the play.
THURSDAY THOUGHTS: I'm very eager to see what the Patriots' injury report looks like because they could have as many as four offensive linemen return from injury/minor illness.
SATURDAY NOTES: We have some major injury news that will greatly impact the outcome of this game. The most important factor is that the Patriots will be getting back two of their better starting offensive linemen, Shaq Mason and David Andrews. The Patriots couldn't block last week, and now they'll be able to with Mason and Andrews back, especially against a 49er front missing all of its edge rushers. Meanwhile, the 49ers will be down three players at linebacker and safety: Kwon Alexander, Jimmie Ward and Jaquiski Tartt. Bill Belichick and Josh McDaniels will figure out how to expose these liabilities. The 49ers will also be missing their starting center and perhaps left tackle Trent Williams, who is hobbled. Add in the fact that we're getting extreme line value from the advance spread, and New England seems like an amazing play. In fact, it's my October NFL Pick of the Month.
SATURDAY NIGHT UPDATE: I'm locking in the Patriots now. Sharp money is being wagered heavily on New England, which is why this spread has risen to -3 in most books. You can buy down to -2.5 -122 at Bookmaker, which is pretty good. However, DraftKings lists this at -2.5 -114, which is a terrific number.
SUNDAY MORNING NOTES: I'm glad I locked in the Patriots, who are now -3 across the board, thanks to sharp money on the host. I still love the Patriots at -3, but New England winning by three is a likely result.
FINAL THOUGHTS: As expected, the Patriots' offensive line is intact. They will look completely different this week, and even at -3, they're a great value. The sharps agree, as they bet the Patriots up to this number. You can get -3 -103 at Bookmaker.
Percentage of money on New England: 57% (6,000 bets)
The Trends. Edge: Patriots.
Bill Belichick is 29-14 ATS after losing as a favorite.
Opening Line: Patriots -4.5.
Opening Total: 45.5.
Weather: Cloudy, 49 degrees. Light wind.
Week 7 NFL Pick: Patriots 27, 49ers 13 Patriots -2.5 -114 (8 Units - October NFL Pick of the Month) - DraftKings -- Incorrect; -$910 Under 45 (0 Units) -- Correct; $0 49ers 33, Patriots 6
Kansas City Chiefs (5-1) at Denver Broncos (2-3) Line: Chiefs by 7.5. Total: 44. Sunday, Oct. 25, 4:25 PM
The Matchup. Edge: Broncos.
Emmitt on the Brink Season 13 is underway! There's a surprise twist at the Mako Reactor, and a new plan is hatched!
KANSAS CITY OFFENSE: Denver's defense was incredible last week. The team limited the Patriots to 12 points. While the Broncos were very impressive, a major reason for this was that New England was missing three offensive linemen entering the game, and then lost a fourth in the early going. The Patriots simply couldn't block the Broncos at all.
I mention this because the Chiefs could have similar problems. While Kansas City beat Buffalo, the team suffered a big loss in the process when Mitchell Schwartz left the game with a back injury. If Schwartz can't recover on a shortened week, the Chiefs will be down two starting offensive linemen. We saw what happened to the Patriots under similar conditions, so the Broncos could end up putting heavy heat on Patrick Mahomes.
That said, limiting Mahomes for 60 minutes will be impossible. The Broncos aren't that strong over the middle of the field, so I could see Mahomes connecting with Travis Kelce enough to put his team in a position to win.
DENVER OFFENSE: Drew Lock did enough to beat the Patriots' great defense last week. He made some mistakes - his second interception was terrible, and he missed some open receivers - but he had a solid game overall, considering the circumstances.
The Chiefs have an underrated defense, but it's not nearly as good as the New England unit. Lock should do even better this week, as Jerry Jeudy won't have to deal with Stephon Gilmore once again. Having Noah Fant back from injury would also be a big boost.
Melvin Gordon should return as well. Having him and Phillip Lindsay will be nice against a defense that can be beaten in the middle of the field. I'm not sure how the Broncos will divide the touches, but both running backs could thrive.
RECAP: This spread is too high. The Chiefs are coming off a short week, and they won a big game in the race for the top seed in the AFC playoffs. The Broncos, meanwhile, are a competitive team with Lock under center. Excluding the games Jeff Driskel played, the Broncos are 2-1, with their one loss coming against the undefeated Titans in the season opener.
My personal number for this game is Kansas City -7, so I think this spread is a touch too high, especially if the Chiefs are missing two offensive linemen. I expect Denver to be competitive and keep the game close if it can take advantage of some Kansas City blocking issues.
We'll see what happens with Schwartz, but I'll likely be on the Broncos for some number of units.
THURSDAY THOUGHTS: I still think this spread is too high, and the DVOA agrees with my projection of Kansas City -7. Mitchell Schwartz's status will be huge.
SATURDAY NOTES: Bad news for the Chiefs: They're going to be missing Mitchell Schwartz, so they'll be without two of their offensive linemen against Denver's fierce defensive front, which just debacled the Patriots. Good news for the Broncos: They're getting A.J. Bouye and Dre'Mont Jones back from injured reserve, which is huge because they'll need all hands on deck against Patrick Mahomes. This spread is too large, especially in a snowy game where offense might be limited. Also, the Chiefs are playing on a shortened week, so I like Denver quite a bit.
SATURDAY NIGHT UPDATE: I'm locking this in, too. Tons of sharp money on Denver has brought this line down to +7 in most sportsbooks. FanDuel still has +7.5 -120 available, but DraftKings is even better at +7.5 -110.
SUNDAY MORNING NOTES: The sharps bet down this number to +7. I can't say I'm surprised. I love the Broncos at +7, but Kansas City winning by seven is a likely result.
FINAL THOUGHTS: While the sharps bet this to +7, they haven't been wagering on this number as much. Still, the Broncos seem like a great play with the Chiefs having offensive line issues against a great front. The best number I currently see is +7 -105 at Bovada.
Jacksonville Jaguars (1-5) at Los Angeles Chargers (1-4) Line: Chargers by 7.5. Total: 49. Sunday, Oct. 25, 4:25 PM
The Matchup. Edge: Chargers.
A reminder that Jerks of the Week for this week is up, so just click the link. This week's jerks entry is called the Great Antifa War of Labor Day.
SAN ANGELES OFFENSE: To say that Justin Herbert has been better than advertised thus far in his rookie campaign is an understatement. I expected Herbert to show some flashes of greatness, all while struggling at times with many turnovers. He was very inconsistent, after all, at Oregon. However, we have barely seen the downside of Herbert. He's been amazing in his four starts thus far.
And here's the thing: Herbert has battled the Buccaneers and Saints in his previous two games, so it's not like he's been abusing the Little Sisters of the Poor. He'll actually have that sort of a matchup this week against a Jacksonville defense that couldn't stop anything the Lions were doing this past week. I thought the Jaguars would perform better than that because Myles Jack and C.J. Henderson were returning from injury. Instead, the Jaguars were pathetic as ever, offering absolutely no resistance.
A major problem for the Jaguars has been their lacking pass rush, as they clearly miss Calais Campbell and Yannick Ngakoue. The Chargers' weakness is their injury-ravaged offensive line - assuming Bryan Bulaga and Trai Turner don't return - but the Jaguars can't capitalize on that weakness.
JACKSONVILLE OFFENSE: While it's unclear, as of this writing, if the Chargers' offensive line will get some reinforcements, we know the defense will. It was reported Monday night that Melvin Ingram and Justin Jones will be returning from injured reserve this week.
This is bad news for the Jaguars, especially after losing talented guard A.J. Cann to an injury last week. Jacksonville had problems blocking the Lions, who don't even have a good pass rush. The Chargers will be coming after Gardner Minshew with Ingram and Joey Bosa, who had a week off to get healthier. I don't think Minshew will fare very well.
I don't see the Jaguars running the ball effectively either. James Robinson has slowed down since his hot start, and the Chargers clamp down on the run well.
RECAP: I don't think this spread is high enough. That may seem odd because a 1-4 squad is favored by more than a touchdown over a 1-5 opponent, but think about it this way: The Chargers had double-digit leads over their previous two opponents, the Buccaneers and Saints. They were banged up, so they couldn't quite hold their leads. If they were healthier and hung on, they'd be 3-2 right now with wins over Tom Brady and Drew Brees. If that were the case, what would this line be? I think it'd be closer to -13 or even -14!
I'm going to be betting the Chargers. My unit count will depend on the status of their offensive line. If everyone is back, this could be a big play.
THURSDAY THOUGHTS: Myles Jack missed Wednesday's practice. He wasn't quite himself against the Lions, resulting in my pathetic five-unit loss on Jacksonville last week. If Jack is out again, this unit count will rise.
SATURDAY NOTES: The entire middle of the Jacksonville defense will be sidelined. The Jaguars will be down their top linebacker (Myles Jack), best defensive tackle (Abry Jones) and top two safeties. I don't see how they're going to be competitive against the Chargers, who will have some players back from injury.
SUNDAY MORNING NOTES: I'm hoping we get a good -7 line prior to kickoff. I'll be looking for one, but the Chargers are still a great play at -7.5.
FINAL THOUGHTS: There's some bad news, as Bryan Bulaga won't play in this game. This means that the Chargers will once again be down three offensive linemen. This sucks, but the Jaguars can't get to the quarterback. Jacksonville will be down numerous players as well. In addition to the players I mentioned in the Saturday notes, guard A.J. Cann will be sidelined as well. I'm going to stick with three units on the Chargers. The best line is -8 -106 at Bookmaker.
The Motivation. Edge: None.
No edge found.
The Spread. Edge: None.
WalterFootball.com Calculated Spread: Chargers -10.
Westgate Advance Point Spread: No Line.
Computer Model: Chargers -10.
DVOA Spread: Chargers -6.
The Vegas. Edge: None.
Percentage of money on San Angeles: 54% (3,000 bets)
The Trends. Edge: None.
Jaguars are 44-81 ATS against non-divisional opponents since 2008.
ARIZONA OFFENSE: We're waiting on a key injury in this game, one that happens to be on this side of the ball. That would be Jamal Adams' status. Adams, one of the best defensive players in the NFL, has been sidelined since Seattle's victory over Dallas in Week 3. The Seahawk defense hasn't been the same ever since.
Adams' return would change everything. He's a terrific play-maker and would undoubtedly help force Kyler Murray into some turnovers. Murray made some mistakes in the Detroit and Carolina games, and there could be more mistakes made if the Seahawks have a healthy defense for the first time in about a month.
Conversely, the Cardinals will have an easy time moving the chains if Adams is sidelined once more. The Seahawks have some talented cornerbacks, but none of them can cover DeAndre Hopkins. Kyler Murray's scrambles will also be an issue, as Seattle's defense will be far weaker without Adams patrolling the middle of the field.
SEATTLE OFFENSE: The Cardinals know a thing or two about playing without a talented safety. They were missing Budda Baker against the Panthers and had trouble covering the talented Carolina receivers as a result. Baker returned the following week, and the Cardinals have won both games with him on the field, albeit against the lowly Jets and Cowboys.
Despite Baker's presence, it's difficult to imagine the Cardinals having much success defending Russell Wilson and his two dynamic receivers. Patrick Peterson will be tasked with slowing down D.K. Metcalf, but that won't work. Metcalf was able to beat even the great Stephon Gilmore, and Peterson isn't quite the shutdown cornerback he once was. Meanwhile, Tyler Lockett will abuse the opposite cornerback.
It would help immensely if the Cardinals could pressure Wilson, but that's unlikely in the wake of Chandler Jones' season-ending injury. With Jones out, the Cardinals don't have the pass rushers to threaten Wilson or his inconsistent offensive line.
RECAP: There's a huge disparity in preparation time between these two teams. The Seahawks are coming off a bye, while the Cardinals just played on Monday night. I don't think the NFL schedule-makers realized this when these lined up this important divisional battle, but Arizona is at a severe disadvantage.
This sort of dynamic doesn't always favor the team with more rest. In fact, get this: Teams coming off Monday night games are 33-15 against the spread versus opponents off byes. I had trouble figuring out why that would be the case, and I think it might be because the oddsmakers know about this dynamic, unlike the schedule-makers, so they inflate the line. It's also not the greatest sample size.
Having said that, the post-Monday night teams that have had to deal with elite quarterbacks who benefit most from extended time off have not done well. I'd think it would greatly help Seattle because Wilson is all about preparation. There's no doubt that he studied the weaknesses of the Arizona defense and is ready to exploit them.
I'm going to bet the Seahawks, but the unit count is not yet determined because we don't know Adams' status yet. This could end up being a large wager.
THURSDAY THOUGHTS: Still no word on Jamal Adams, who missed Wednesday's practice. The computer model's projection for this game moved from Seattle -4 to -2, and DVOA thinks this game should be a pick 'em. Everything changes with Adams returning.
SATURDAY NOTES: The Cardinals have lots of injury question marks like Kelvin Beachum and DeAndre Hopkins, but considering that they're coming off a shortened week, it makes sense that they would barely practice. Assuming they play, I'm going to make the switch to Arizona. I assumed the Seahawks would have Jamal Adams back from injury, but he and the other two missing safeties won't suit up, so I like Arizona to cover, particularly at +3.5. My unit count will depend on the statuses of Beachum and Hopkins.
SUNDAY MORNING NOTES: We're still waiting on some major injury news for the Cardinals. I'll have an official pick around 7:45 Eastern.
FINAL THOUGHTS: Sorry for the Patriots loss. Cam Newton looked injured. He couldn't complete basic passes, and he didn't run. He wasn't on the injury report, so I'm pretty pissed. I also don't know why New England's defense was abused so easily. The 49ers having so much success offensively made no sense.
Anyway, there's some important injury news regarding this game. I was waiting on Kelvin Beachum and DeAndre Hopkins. Both will play! This is very important for Arizona's chances of covering or even winning outright. Meanwhile, we knew the Seahawks would be down several safeties. What we didn't know was that Mike Iupati would be sidelined. It's not a huge deal, but it's a nice little edge for the Cardinals. I still like Arizona for a medium-sized play. I don't want to bet heavily against Russell Wilson off a bye, but I'm willing to bet three units on Arizona. The best line is +3.5 -105 at both BetUS and Bovada.
The Motivation. Edge: Seahawks.
The Seahawks have had lots of time to prepare. The Cardinals are coming off a short week.
Chicago Bears (5-1) at Los Angeles Rams (4-2) Line: Rams by 6. Total: 45. Monday, Oct. 26, 8:15 PM
The Matchup. Edge: None.
This week on ESPN, we're going to have awful announcers calling the shots instead the great preseason homers like Kevin Reilly, Ron Wolfley and Don Tollefson, inept ESPN guys Emmitt, Herman Edwards, and aloof people like Dan Fouts and Jay Cutler. Here's what it would sound like if these seven dudes (and some special guests) were calling this game:
Reilly: Welcome to the city of Los Angeles, where tonight, the St. Louis Rams will battle the Chicago Blackhawks. Guys, this game means nothing in the grand scheme of things because my Philadelphia Eagles beat both in the playoffs recently, so let's welcome our special guest in the booth tonight, Los Angeles governor Gavin Newsome. Governor Newsome, thank you for joining us.
Gavin Newsom: Thank you, it's an honor and a privilege, but just make sure not to pronounce an "E" at the end of my last name because there is no "E" at the end of it. Emmitt, so glad I could finally meet you. As a minority, you were my favorite player in the NFL.
Emmitt: Thank you, Ozzie Newsome, you do a real great job of general managing the Baltimore Oriole.
Reilly: Wow, Governor Ozzie Newsome, I did not realize you were also a general managing in the NFL!
Gavin Newsom: I'm not, but I want to tell you what I am managing. I am managing the NFL Women's Awareness Month the league is launching. We want the people to know that we care about women, and that I specifically care so much about women because I'm such a good person.
Tollefson: Oh Gavin, we know that's a crock of bulls**t! I saw you kidnap some women at the bar and lock them in your dungeon. I know this because I was going to do the same thing to those women, but you beat me to the punch! You're just saying you care because you want to make yourself look better!
Reilly: Now, Tolly, let's not make light of people who aren't allowed to kidnap women. Mother won't even let me talk to one!
Jason Witten: Hello, my name is Jason Witten and I just came out of retirement. Guys, I've heard that we're talking about talking. You know, when you talk to someone, you're talking to them. And here's the thing about talking to someone: When you're talking to them, you're actually talking to them, except when you're not talking to them anymore, which means you're not talking because you stopped talking, and so you're not talking to them anymore unless you start talking to them again, and so you're talking to them again. Because when you're talking to someone, you're talking to them.
Reilly: Thanks for wasting our time once again, Wittman. So, Governor Newsome, you mentioned you're involved in multiple projects with the NFL. Want to talk about another one?
Gavin Newsom: I see you pronounced the "E" at the end of my last name, which is not there. I warned you, and I'll not repeat it that warning. Anyway, the NFL and the state of California have teamed up to start Papua New Guinea Heritage Month. There are so many refugees from Papua New Guinea, and so in order to show them how much I care about them, I've helped launch Papua New Guinea Month. Now, please vote for me in the coming election, Papua New Guineans, or you will pay the price.
Fouts: Governor, I'm not sure what you're talking about, but I heard the word guinea, and that reminds me of guinea pigs. Guinea pigs are pigs that are from Guinea! That's because the word guinea is in front of the word, pig. If they were from New Jersey, the would be called New Jersey Pigs. If they were from Oklahoma, they would be Oklahoma Pigs. If they were from Kevin's Mom's House, they'd be Kevin's Mom's House Pigs, but that could just describe, Kevin Reilly.
Wolfley: DAN, DO NOT TAKE NEW JERSEY PIGS LIGHTLY. THEY WERE THE SWORN ENEMY OF THE TELEPHONE POLE WITH TWO EYEBALLS UNTIL THE TELEPHONE POLES WITH TWO EYEBALLS JOINED TOGETHER AND FOUGHT HARD TO DEFEAT THE NEW JERSEY PIGS. SONGS HAVE BEEN SUNG ABOUT THIS WAR.
Reilly: W-T-F, Dan! Why are you calling me a pig!? I'm not fat. Mother says I'm big boned. Tell them, New Daddy! Tell them that Mother said I'm big boned!
Cutler: Haha, you said boned.
Reilly: New Daddy, you have to take things more seriously like I do. Anyway, Governor Newman, do you have an announcement? You mentioned this before we started recording.
Gavin Newsom: It's Gavin Newsom, with no "E' at the end! Get it right, or pay the price! Speaking of price, in an attempt to get people to move back to California, we are imposing a football announcing tax, which means every single football announcing crew will have to pay 15 percent of their income to us, but it's OK because this will help all the minorities I care so much about. Now, vote for me, minorities, or you will pay the price.
Alyssa Milano: Thank you so much, Governor Newsom! It's important to tax those who have things so that the minorities get their money and that they know how much we care about them. Just make sure you vote for Governor Newsom, or you will pay the price.
Reilly: But guys, I don't get paid money to do this! I can't pay money to you because I get paid in football player figurines!
Gavin Newsom: Well, it looks like you'll have to surrender 15 percent of your football figurines then.
Reilly: WHAT!? THAT'S NOT FAIR!!! SOMEONE, DO SOMETHING! NEW DADDY! EMMITT! TOLLY! ANYONE!!!
Charles Davis: Kevin, looks like you'll be giving up some of your toys, Kevin. How about your Nick Foles figurine, Kevin? That's gone, Kevin. What about your Carson Wentz figurine, Kevin? That's gone, too, Kevin. Gotta help the less fortunate, Kevin. So they'll vote for Governor Newsom, Kevin, or pay the price, Kevin. Let's discuss your Fletcher Cox figurine, Kevin. Kiss that one goodbye, Kevin. How about we talk about your Randall Cunningham figurine, Kevin? Adios, Kevin. Then there's your Kevin Reilly figurine, Kevin. No one wants that one, Kevin, so you can keep that one, Kevin.
Reilly: F**K YOU, CHARLES DAVIS! EVERYONE WANTS IT! IF I DIDN'T HAVE TO GIVE UP SO MANY OF MY FIGURINES TO THIS ANNOUNCEMENT TAX, I WOULD SHOVE IT UP YOUR BUTT, BUT I NEED TO KEEP IT BECAUSE I'LL BE LOSING SO MANY FIGURINES! We'll be back after this!
CHICAGO OFFENSE: Nick Foles continues to win for the Bears, who are somehow 5-1. He's been a godsend for his new team, as Mitchell Trubisky likely would've lost to at least one of the Buccaneers or the Panthers in the past couple of weeks.
Foles, however, has his work cut out for him in this matchup. The Bears are down one of their interior offensive linemen, which is not a good position to be in when battling Aaron Donald. I still don't fully trust the Chicago offensive line, which could lead to Foles being pressured quite often. With Allen Robinson matched up with Jalen Ramsey, it might be difficult for Foles to generate much offense.
There is some hope, however, as the 49ers created a blueprint for how to defeat the Rams. Jimmy Garoppolo released the ball quickly to his running backs in an attempt to beat some underwhelming Los Angeles linebackers. David Montgomery could have a great performance if the Bears follow this strategy.
LOS ANGELES OFFENSE: You can obviously say that every NFL quarterback is worse when under heavy pressure, but that's exaggerated with Jared Goff. Everything needs to be perfect for Goff to play well. If he has any pressure in his face, he becomes frazzled and begins missing throws and forgetting snap counts. We saw plenty of the former this past Sunday night.
There's no doubt that Goff will see heavy heat from the Bears. Khalil Mack, Robert Quinn and Akiem Hicks all have plus matchups in the trenches. This could force Goff into some turnovers, though it's worth noting that Cooper Kupp should be able to win his battle against the Bears' pedestrian slot cornerback.
The Rams won't have much success running the ball either. Darrell Henderson looked good versus the 49ers, but Chicago doesn't have an injury-ravaged defense that San Francisco is stricken with at the moment. The Bears are better against the rush, so Henderson will be limited.
RECAP: I initially thought the public was all over the Bears, but this is sharp money dragging down the line. And I agree with the pro side. I like the idea of buying low on the Rams following their Sunday night loss, but I wasn't high on them in the first place. Their four wins have come against the four dreadful NFC East teams, and two of those games were close. The two non-NFC East battles they played resulted in a 28-3 deficit to the Bills before Buffalo fell asleep, and an ugly loss to the 49ers.
I'm not going to wager big on the Bears with the +6s gone, but I still think +5.5 is worth a gamble.
THURSDAY THOUGHTS: The sharps bet the Bears down from +6.5 to +5.5, but there was other professional money coming in on the Rams at -5.5.
SATURDAY NOTES: Khalil Mack's status is in doubt. This obviously changes everything, given what I wrote about Jared Goff struggling immensely with pressure. We'll have to wait until the inactives list to know how to bet this game.
SUNDAY MORNING NOTES: Once again, Khalil Mack's status is important. I'll have an official pick on this game Monday around 7:45 Eastern.
FINAL THOUGHTS: I don't get the line movement on this game. Khalil Mack will play, yet this spread has risen to -6.5. In fact, you can get Chicago +6.5 -105 at BetUS! The sharps like the Rams, but I think the Bears are the right side. Jared Goff will undoubtedly struggle with pressure, and I think the Bears can attack the Ram linebackers. I'd recommend a two-unit wager on the Bears, but I can get into positive territory for the week by winning three units on this game, so that's what I'm going to attempt to do.
week 7 NFL Picks - Early Games
Giants at Eagles, Lions at Falcons, Browns at Bengals, Panthers at Saints, Bills at Jets, Cowboys at Redskins, Steelers at Titans, Packers at Texans
A list of some of my favorite team/player prop picks this week (Offense & defensive ROY picks to be counted
whenever winners are announced.) Picks carried over on a week-to-week basis will be in black.
Note: For legality purposes, this Web site does not promote or advocate gambling. This is solely for entertainment purposes only.
Last Week's NFL Picks Against The Spread (Week 11, 2020): 3-11 (-$1,935)
Last Week's 2-3 Unit NFL Picks (Week 11, 2020): 0-5 (-$1,575)
Last Week's 4-5 Unit NFL Picks (Week 11, 2020): 1-2 (-$690)
Last Week Over-Under (Week 11, 2020): 11-3 ($0)
Last Week's Prop/ML/Teaser/Parlay Picks (Week 11, 2020): +$230
2020 NFL Picks of the Month: 0-2, 0% (-$1,735)
2020 Season NFL Picks Against The Spread: 80-76-5, 51.3% (-$1,115) 2020 Season 2-3 Unit NFL Picks: 28-31-3, 47.5% (-$2,750) 2020 Season 4-5 Unit NFL Picks: 21-14, 60.0% (+$2,585) 2020 Season Over-Under: 83-74-4, 52.9% ($0) 2020 Season Prop/ML/Teaser/Parlay Picks: +$420
1999 Season NFL Picks Against The Spread: 27-41-3 (39.7%) 2000 Season NFL Picks Against The Spread: 128-123-8 (51.0%) 2001 Season NFL Picks Against The Spread: 127-122-7 (51.0%) 2002 Season NFL Picks Against The Spread: 123-136-7 (47.5%) 2003 Season NFL Picks Against The Spread: 146-126-8 (53.7%) 2004 Season NFL Picks Against The Spread: 157-123-8 (56.1%) 2005 Season NFL Picks Against The Spread: 156-126-11 (55.3%) 2006 Season NFL Picks Against The Spread: 151-135-9 (52.8%) 2007 Season NFL Picks Against The Spread: 162-135-10, 54.5% (+$3,585) 2008 Season NFL Picks Against The Spread: 148-140-7, 51.4% (+$6,105) 2009 Season NFL Picks Against The Spread: 151-124-9, 54.9% (+$4,235) 2010 Season NFL Picks Against The Spread: 144-131-8, 52.4% (+$5,880) 2011 Season NFL Picks Against The Spread: 137-133-12, 50.7% (-$1,335) 2012 Season NFL Picks Against The Spread: 130-145-8, 47.3% (-$7,445) 2013 Season NFL Picks Against The Spread: 144-131-8, 52.4% (+$7,825) 2014 Season NFL Picks Against The Spread: 143-133-7, 51.8% (-$1,885) 2015 Season NFL Picks Against The Spread: 134-138-12, 49.3% (-$3,215) 2016 Season NFL Picks Against The Spread: 148-127-10, 53.8% (+$780) 2017 Season NFL Picks Against The Spread: 137-140-8, 49.5% (-$4,300) 2018 Season NFL Picks Against The Spread: 140-134-14, 51.3% (+$845) 2019 Season NFL Picks Against The Spread: 149-128-9, 53.6% (+$1,200)
2002 Season 2-3 Unit NFL Picks: 41-49-2 (45.6%) 2003 Season 2-3 Unit NFL Picks: 52-51-2 (50.5%) 2004 Season 2-3 Unit NFL Picks: 65-44-3 (59.6%) 2005 Season 2-3 Unit NFL Picks: 77-61-1 (55.8%) 2006 Season 2-3 Unit NFL Picks: 65-61-4 (51.6%) 2007 Season 2-3 Unit NFL Picks: 83-59-5, 58.5% (+$4,110) 2008 Season 2-3 Unit NFL Picks: 44-57-3, 43.6% (-$3,510) 2009 Season 2-3 Unit NFL Picks: 49-35-3, 58.3% (+$2,260) 2010 Season 2-3 Unit NFL Picks: 51-38-4, 57.3% (+$3,180) 2011 Season 2-3 Unit NFL Picks: 44-51-3, 46.3% (-$2,715) 2012 Season 2-3 Unit NFL Picks: 45-50-2, 47.4% (-$2,130) 2013 Season 2-3 Unit NFL Picks: 38-42, 47.5% (-$2,890) 2015 Season 2-3 Unit NFL Picks: 47-44-1, 51.6% (-$820) 2016 Season 2-3 Unit NFL Picks: 42-35-3, 54.5% (+$475) 2017 Season 2-3 Unit NFL Picks: 32-40-3, 43.8% (-$2,395) 2018 Season 2-3 Unit NFL Picks: 52-41-2, 55.9% (+$2,670) 2019 Season 2-3 Unit NFL Picks: 44-36-2, 55.0% (+$655)
2002 Season 4-5 Unit NFL Picks: 11-12 (47.8%) 2003 Season 4-5 Unit NFL Picks: 16-13-1 (55.2%) 2004 Season 4-5 Unit NFL Picks: 18-11 (62.1%) 2005 Season 4-5 Unit NFL Picks: 25-22-1 (53.2%) 2006 Season 4-5 Unit NFL Picks: 21-29-1 (42.0%) 2007 Season 4-5 Unit NFL Picks: 35-30-2, 53.8% (+$420) 2008 Season 4-5 Unit NFL Picks: 39-26-2, 60.0% (+$4,055) 2009 Season 4-5 Unit NFL Picks: 29-26, 52.7% (+$330) 2010 Season 4-5 Unit NFL Picks: 32-22, 59.3% (+$4,790) 2011 Season 4-5 Unit NFL Picks: 14-14, 50.0% (-$1,260) 2012 Season 4-5 Unit NFL Picks: 14-21, 40.0% (-$3,650) 2013 Season 4-5 Unit NFL Picks: 17-9-3, 65.4% (+$2,970) 2015 Season 4-5 Unit NFL Picks: 17-16-2, 51.5% (-$1,120) 2016 Season 4-5 Unit NFL Picks: 21-22-5, 48.8% (-$1,465) 2017 Season 4-5 Unit NFL Picks: 20-22-1, 47.6% (-$1,595) 2018 Season 4-5 Unit NFL Picks: 27-32-1, 45.8% (-$4,735) 2019 Season 4-5 Unit NFL Picks: 37-27-2, 57.8% (+$2,185)
2001 Season Over-Under: 3-2 (60.0%) 2002 Season Over-Under: 121-91-3 (57.1%) 2003 Season Over-Under: 126-132-2 (48.8%) 2004 Season Over-Under: 139-124-4 (52.9%) 2005 Season Over-Under: 117-145-4 (44.7%) 2006 Season Over-Under: 129-132-5 (49.4%) 2007 Season Over-Under: 136-145-3, 48.4% (-$1,900) 2008 Season Over-Under: 137-125-6, 52.3% (+$860) 2009 Season Over-Under: 128-135-4, 48.7% (-$3,195) 2010 Season Over-Under: 128-135-5, 48.7% (-$5) 2011 Season Over-Under: 131-131-5, 50.0% (+$135) 2012 Season Over-Under: 125-121-5, 50.8% (+$30) 2013 Season Over-Under: 132-130-5, 50.4% (-$340) 2015 Season Over-Under: 143-119-5, 54.6% ($0) 2016 Season Over-Under: 123-141-1, 46.6% (+$95) 2017 Season Over-Under: 136-139-2, 49.5% (+$640) 2018 Season Over-Under: 118-128-3, 48.0% (-$225) 2019 Season Over-Under: 126-133-4, 48.6% (-$50)
2007 Season Prop/ML/Teaser/Parlay Picks: +$1,035 2008 Season Prop/ML/Teaser/Parlay Picks: +$1,775 2009 Season Prop/ML/Teaser/Parlay Picks: +$865 2010 Season Prop/ML/Teaser/Parlay Picks: -$200 2011 Season Prop/ML/Teaser/Parlay Picks: +$590 2012 Season Prop/ML/Teaser/Parlay Picks: -$1,685 2013 Season Prop/ML/Teaser/Parlay Picks: +$2,245 2015 Season Prop/ML/Teaser/Parlay Picks: -$855 2016 Season Prop/ML/Teaser/Parlay Picks: -$275 2017 Season Prop/ML/Teaser/Parlay Picks: -$510 2018 Season Prop/ML/Teaser/Parlay Picks: +$1,495 2019 Season Prop/ML/Teaser/Parlay Picks: -$1,715
2006 NFL Picks of the Month: 3-3 (50%) 2007 NFL Picks of the Month: 3-3, 50.0% (-$400) 2008 NFL Picks of the Month: 6-1, 85.7% (+$3,720) 2009 NFL Picks of the Month: 3-2, 60.0% (+$640) 2010 NFL Picks of the Month: 2-4, 33.3% (-$1,810) 2011 NFL Picks of the Month: 5-2, 71.4% (+$1,870) 2012 NFL Picks of the Month: 3-2, 60.0% (+$560) 2013 NFL Picks of the Month: 6-0, 100% (+$3,900) 2014 NFL Picks of the Month: 2-4, 33.3% (-$1,350) 2015 NFL Picks of the Month: 3-3, 50.0% (-$100) 2016 NFL Picks of the Month: 5-1, 83.3% (+$2,780) 2017 NFL Picks of the Month: 4-2, 66.7% (+$1,040) 2018 NFL Picks of the Month: 4-3, 57.1% (-$640) 2019 NFL Picks of the Month: 3-3-1, 50.0% (-$625)
Career NFL Picks Against The Spread: 2,937-2,713-177, 52.0% (+$9,190) Career 2-3 Unit NFL Picks: 938-847-49 (52.6%) Career 4-5 Unit NFL Picks: 436-388-22 (52.9%) Career Over-Under: 2,406-2,368-65 (50.4%) Career Second-Half NFL Picks: 22-15-1 (61.1%) Career NFL Picks of the Month: 43-29-1 (59.7%)
My Team-by-Team ATS Record This section shows how well I do when picking each team this year. The purpose is to see how well I read each team. Pushes are not
displayed. Winning/losing streak in parentheses.