NFL Picks Against the Spread: Week 17, 2019

NFL Picks (Preseason 2019): 14-6 (+$1,535)
NFL Picks (Week 1, 2019): 5-10-1 (-$515)
NFL Picks (Week 2, 2019): 10-6 (+$140)
NFL Picks (Week 3, 2019): 10-6 (+$1,365)
NFL Picks (Week 4, 2019): 12-3 (+$1,240)
NFL Picks (Week 5, 2019): 8-7 (+$1,665)
NFL Picks (Week 6, 2019): 9-5 (+$2,505)
NFL Picks (Week 7, 2019): 8-6 (+$1,130)
NFL Picks (Week 8, 2019): 8-7 (+$435)
NFL Picks (Week 9, 2019): 3-9-1 (-$770)
NFL Picks (Week 10, 2019): 8-5 (+$1,460)
NFL Picks (Week 11, 2019): 8-5-1 (-$1,790)
NFL Picks (Week 12, 2019): 9-5 (+$1,015)
NFL Picks (Week 13, 2019): 9-7 (+$205)
NFL Picks (Week 14, 2019): 3-11-2 (-$2,195)
NFL Picks (Week 15, 2019): 4-11-1 (-$2,195)
NFL Picks (Week 16, 2019): 11-4-1 (+$1,065)

NFL Picks (2019): 139-113-7 (+$6,715)
NFL Picks (2018): 140-134-12 (+$845)
NFL Picks (2017): 137-147-10 (-$4,300)
NFL Picks (2016): 148-127-10 (+$780)
NFL Picks (2015): 133-138-10 (-$3,215)
NFL Picks (2014): 143-133-7 (-$1,885)
NFL Picks (2013): 144-131-8 (+$7,825)
NFL Picks (2012): 130-145-8 (-$7,445)
NFL Picks (2011): 137-133-12 (-$1,335)
NFL Picks (2010): 144-131-8 (+$5,880)
NFL Picks (2009): 151-124-9 (+$4,235)
NFL Picks (2008): 136-125-6 (+$6,105)
NFL Picks (2007): 162-135-10 (+$3,585)
If you don’t quite understand the line, total or anything else, go to my Sports Betting FAQ.

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Vegas betting action updated Dec. 29, 11:40 a.m. ET. Follow @walterfootball for updates.


Go to Week 17 NFL Picks – Late Games







Cleveland Browns (6-9) at Cincinnati Bengals (1-14)
Line: Browns by 3. Total: 43.
Sunday, Dec. 29, 1:00 PM


The Matchup. Edge: Browns.

Week 16 Recap: It was nice to rebound with a winning Sunday in Week 16. I was 11-4-1, +$1,065, despite the Panthers effectively surrendering three punt return touchdowns, resulting in a four-unit loss to the Colts. That was the only bad luck we had in Week 16. I did, however, make a horrible pick when I chose the 49ers to cover -7 for three units against the Rams. That should’ve been a non-wager.

By the way, if you want to support this site, check out my new book!



You can buy A Safety and a Field Goal here.

In this book, I talk about the top NFL Draft busts, and what would’ve happened had each team gone a different route. Also, I discuss why Roger Goodell has banned us from the NFL Combine.

CLEVELAND OFFENSE: It’ll be nice for Baker Mayfield to get out of Cleveland for the final time this season. He was booed heavily for his dismal performance last week against the Ravens. I’m not sure this was completely warranted, given that Mayfield is dealing with inept coaching, an injured (and disgruntled) top receiver and his own malady, but he at least won’t have to deal with unhappy fans this week.

Mayfield also has a positive matchup, but I’m not sure if he can take advantage of it. He hasn’t been the same since he banged his hand on Bud Dupree’s helmet a few weeks ago, so even though the Bengals have some major flaws in their aerial defense, I don’t see Mayfield playing very well this week, especially with Beckham continuing to labor through his sports hernia.

Nick Chubb, on the other hand, could post another monster stat line. Chubb rushed for 106 yards on just 15 carries against these very same Bengals three weeks ago. Chubb should’ve posted a better stat line, but Freddie Kitchens didn’t run enough for some reason. Chubb and Kareem Hunt have a great matchup against the Cleveland linebackers.

CINCINNATI OFFENSE: Both of these teams weren’t what they were a month-and-a-half ago. For example, the Bengals weren’t starting Andy Dalton, and they didn’t have their talented left tackle, Cordy Glenn, available to protect the blindside. Meanwhile, Cleveland had a strong defense, but lost Myles Garrett to a suspension as a result of that infamous fight against the Steelers.

Thus, despite the records of these teams, they’re closer to each other than some may think. Dalton will receive enough protection against a Garrett-less front, so he’ll have enough time to locate his weapons, and that includes John Ross, who returned from injury a couple of weeks ago. Ross, Tyler Boyd and Alex Erickson should be able to consistently move the chains, which is something they did in this matchup three weeks ago.

Meanwhile, the Browns are particularly poor against the run. Joe Mixon had some sort of a stomach bug last week and didn’t look like himself. He’ll presumably be healthier this Sunday, so he should be able to take advantage of Cleveland’s defense.

RECAP: Assuming we get decent juice on +3, the Bengals are mildly appealing. As written earlier, these teams aren’t very far apart in the wake of some roster changes made over the past several weeks. Despite this, there’s a ton of public action on the Browns.

I’m good with fading the public betting a bad line for a unit or two, but I wouldn’t go crazy with this because we don’t know the motivation of these two teams. I believe the Browns will mail in this game, but the Bengals might do that as well. I may increase my unit count if it’s announced that Freddie Kitchens will be rightfully fired after this game.

Our Week 16 NFL Picks will be posted all day Tuesday. Follow @walterfootball for updates.

THURSDAY THOUGHTS: No news on Freddie Kitchens yet, unfortunately. Let’s hope some news breaks that he’ll be fired so we can wager a few units on the Bengals.

FRIDAY UPDATE: There’s nothing interesting on the injury report, and nothing yet on the Freddie Kitchens front, so this update is a boring one.

SATURDAY NOTES: Odell Beckham Jr. showed up late on the injury report with a missed practice Friday, but he’s expected to play. I’m going with two units on the Bengals. I found a +3 -110 line at FanDuel.

FINAL THOUGHTS: There’s news that the Browns are already looking into new head coaches. I’d bet more on the Bengals, but the sharps have moved this spread down and created poor value. If you can still find a +3 somewhere, I’d bet a third unit on Cincinnati.




The Motivation. Edge: None.
No edge found.


The Spread. Edge: Bengals.

WalterFootball.com Calculated Spread: Bengals -1.
Las Vegas Hilton Advance Point Spread: Browns -3.
Computer Model: Browns -6.
DVOA Spread: Pick (last week).


The Vegas. Edge: Bengals.
Everyone is betting the Browns.

Percentage of money on Cleveland: 73% (11,000 bets)


The Trends. Edge: None.

History: Bengals have won 21 of the last 30 meetings.

Browns are 8-4 ATS as road favorites.

Opening Line: Browns -3.

Opening Total: 46.

Weather: Light rain, 62 degrees. Light wind.

Week 17 NFL Pick: Bengals 26, Browns 23
Bengals +3 (2 Units) – FanDuel — Correct; +$200
Over 43 (0 Units) — Correct; $0
Bengals 33, Browns 23

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Chicago Bears (7-8) at Minnesota Vikings (10-5)
Line: Bears by 3. Total: 36.
Sunday, Dec. 29, 1:00 PM


The Matchup. Edge: Bears.

My overrated-underrated feature was posted in this spot the past couple of years. I thought it would be better if there was less clutter on this page, so I set up a new NFL Overrated and Underrated Teams page that will be updated every Monday. I have overrated and underrated teams listed there, and some may shock you!

RESTING STARTERS: It’s Week 17, so I’m not going to analyze the matchups of games where teams will be resting their starters. This is one such game, as the Vikings are locked into the No. 6 seed in the NFC playoffs.

RECAP: It’s a shame the Rams didn’t win last Saturday night; had they prevailed, this game would mean something. I’d love to bet against Kirk Cousins in another Week 17 collapse. Alas, we won’t have that opportunity.

Sean Mannion is Minnesota’s backup quarterback, and he’s terrible. The Vikings had a chance to keep a superior backup, Kyle Sloter, but they went with the awful Mannion instead. The Bears may not try very hard, but it won’t take much effort to stymie an offense led by Mannion.

The Bears should win this game, but they’re a risky wager because they could be a complete no-show in Week 17. They had high hopes coming into this season, so after being eliminated from the playoffs and then getting trashed by Patrick Mahomes on national TV, they could be willing to just pack in the season.

THURSDAY THOUGHTS: It’s crazy that nearly 80 percent of the betting action is on Sean Mannion. I’m tempted to put some units on the Bears because of this, though I wouldn’t go crazy with this game because the Bears could quit.

FRIDAY UPDATE: Kirk Cousins told the media that he doesn’t know if he’s playing or not this week. Even if Cousins suits up, it might be for a drive or two, and that’s it. Even with that in mind, I wouldn’t bet the Bears, who might mail in this game after being eliminated from the playoffs recently. Also, the Bears haven’t seen Akiem Hicks or Eddie Goldman in practice lately, which could mean good things for Mike Boone.

SATURDAY NOTES: The Bears are now favored by three (or even 3.5 in some places) because people have finally realized that the Vikings probably won’t play their starters. However, as I’ve said, the Bears have nothing to play for either, and they won’t have their top defensive linemen to stop Mike Boone. I’m still on Chicago, but I’m not betting this game.

FINAL THOUGHTS: Kirk Cousins, Stefon Diggs and Adam Thielen are all active, but the Vikings have made both starting tackles inactive, so Cousins and the rest of the starters won’t play at all. I wouldn’t complain about anyone betting the Bears, but they could be a no-show, and they’re missing both of their stud defensive tackles.


The Motivation. Edge: None.
The Vikings will likely sit their starters in this meaningless game, but the Bears may not try very hard either.


The Spread. Edge: None.

WalterFootball.com Calculated Spread: No Line.
Las Vegas Hilton Advance Point Spread: Vikings -7.
Computer Model: No Line.
DVOA Spread: No Line.


The Vegas. Edge: None.
Equal action.

Percentage of money on Minnesota: 59% (8,000 bets)


The Trends. Edge: Vikings.

History: Home Team has won 27 of the last 33 meetings.

Mike Zimmer is 59-34 ATS as head coach of the Vikings.

Vikings are 31-15 ATS at home since 2014.

Opening Line: Vikings -7.

Opening Total: 51.

Weather: Dome.

Week 17 NFL Pick: Bears 24, Vikings 20
Bears -3 (0 Units) — Incorrect; $0
Over 36 (0 Units) — Correct; $0
Bears 21, Vikings 19

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Atlanta Falcons (6-9) at Tampa Bay Buccaneers (7-8)
Line: Pick. Total: 47.5.
Sunday, Dec. 29, 1:00 PM


The Matchup. Edge: Falcons.

VEGAS UPDATE: I’ll be posting how the Vegas sportsbooks have done the previous week in this spot. The highest-bet sides were 38-44-3 last season, a year that was pretty painful for the books. Perhaps the pendulum will swing the other way…

Here were the teams getting the most bets this week:

Texans -3

Chiefs -5

Saints -3

Ravens -10

49ers -6

The sportsbooks have gotten killed the past two weeks. Lopsided-bet games were 4-2-1 in Week 15, and they were 3-1-1 this past week. Perhaps the sportsbooks are being generous by giving people Christmas money before they take it all back in Week 17. Lopsided bets are now 40-37-2 ATS on the year.

Here are the teams getting the most bets this week:

Dolphins +16

Lions +10

Browns -2.5

Colts -3.5

Chiefs -7.5

Redskins +10.5

49ers -3

Saints -13

There are lots of lopsided bets this week. I’m sure some of it will even out, but this is a great opportunity for the sportsbooks to win back some of the money they’ve lost over the past two weeks.

TAMPA BAY OFFENSE: Jameis Winston had such a stereotypical performance for him this past Saturday. He opened with some early interceptions, including a pick-six, but he also delivered some incredible passes to lead a potential comeback. He nearly prevailed, but Cameron Brate dropped a pass on fourth down over midfield when the Buccaneers trailed by just three points late in the afternoon.

Winston may not be 100 percent because of his thumb injury, and he won’t have his top two receivers again, but he should still play well. Atlanta has a poor pass defense, so the emerging Breshad Perriman and Justin Watson both figure to thrive once again. O.J. Howard and Brate could be bigger factors this week in easier matchups.

It’s worth noting that Winston should have all the time he needs to locate his young receivers. The Falcons don’t bring that much of a pass rush, and Tampa’s offensive line has performed very well with all of the blockers being healthy (this was not the case in the Buccaneers’ London loss, for instance.) The great protection will allow Winston to potentially lead his team to victory, though I’m sure there will be a pick-six mixed in as well.

ATLANTA OFFENSE: Another area in which the Buccaneers have improved is the secondary. They were woeful against the pass earlier in the year, but they made some changes and got healthier in their defensive backfield to really improve how they do against aerial attacks. Cornerback Jamel Dean, despite his atrocious debut at Seattle, has emerged as a solid player, while Carlton Davis has made things better following his multi-game hiatus in the middle of the year.

The Buccaneers should be able to handle the Atlanta receivers. That is, the Atlanta receivers not named Julio Jones. There’s no slowing down Jones, who is seeing more of a target share in the wake of Calvin Ridley’s injury. The Falcons’ tight end, Austin Hooper, also figures to have a nice performance, given that the Buccaneers are woeful against players at that position.

Of course, the Buccaneers are excellent against the run, thanks to Vita Vea and Ndamukong Suh. Their elite ground defense will easily keep Devonta Freeman in check, forcing Matt Ryan to beat their improved secondary.

RECAP: I have the Buccaneers seeded above the Falcons in my NFL Power Rankings. Last week’s DVOA numbers also have the Buccaneers as the better team. Despite this, the Buccaneers are just one-point favorites, which is bizarre enough without even factoring in that the public is betting Atlanta rather heavily!

I don’t understand where people came up with the idea that Atlanta is better than Tampa Bay. The Falcons have done well since the bye, but the Buccaneers have been so much better overall. Granted, it’s not ideal that they don’t have their two talented receivers, but their vastly superior offensive line and secondary play should allow them to prevail.

I’m going to bet the Buccaneers for about three units. I love fading public dogs, and this is just a bad spread in general.

THURSDAY THOUGHTS: Betting action is getting closer to even, but this spread is still off by a couple of points. The Buccaneers should be favored by three.

FRIDAY UPDATE: Julio Jones missed practice Wednesday and underwent a limited practice Thursday. It wouldn’t be the craziest thing in the world if the Falcons held him out or limited his snaps in a completely irrelevant season finale.

SATURDAY NOTES: Despite going through full practices all week, Jameis Winston is questionable with thumb and knee injuries. I don’t think it would be the most shocking thing if he sat out this game. This will be a Sunday morning call on whether or not I’m actually going to bet the Buccaneers.

FINAL THOUGHTS: The Falcons are no longer public dogs because this spread is a pick ’em, but we’re getting so much value with the Atlanta line. Unfortunately, the Falcons could be fired up with Dan Quinn being retained, so I’m going to drop this unit count to two. The best line is PK -108 at Heritage.


The Motivation. Edge: Falcons.
The Falcons will be getting Dan Quinn back next year.


The Spread. Edge: Buccaneers.

WalterFootball.com Calculated Spread: Buccaneers -3.
Las Vegas Hilton Advance Point Spread: Buccaneers -2.
Computer Model: Buccaneers -1.
DVOA Spread: Buccaneers -3.


The Vegas. Edge: Buccaneers.
The Falcons are a public dog.

Percentage of money on Atlanta: 74% (11,000 bets)


The Trends. Edge: Falcons.

History: Falcons have won 5 of the last 6 meetings.

Road Team is 98-59 ATS in Buccaneers games since 2009.

Buccaneers are 24-54 ATS at home in the previous 78 instances.

Opening Line: Buccaneers -2.5.

Opening Total: 50.5.

Weather: Partly cloudy, 79 degrees. Mild wind, 12 mph.

Week 17 NFL Pick: Buccaneers 31, Falcons 24
Buccaneers PK -108 (2 Units) — Incorrect; -$215
Over 47.5 (0 Units) — Correct; $0
Falcons 28, Buccaneers 22

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New Orleans Saints (12-3) at Carolina Panthers (5-10)
Line: Saints by 13.5. Total: 45.
Sunday, Dec. 29, 1:00 PM


The Matchup. Edge: Saints.

HATE MAIL: I will be posting hate mail here. Here’s some hate mail from last week:



How was the Vikings-Seahawks game not a blowout? Seattle was up 34-17 before it took its foot off the gas and allowed some garbage-time points. We’ve been over this before, but just because a team gets garbage-time scores doesn’t mean the game wasn’t a blowout.

Here’s someone who doesn’t like my footwear:



What’s wrong with flip flops? I have like four different pairs!

How about an actual pick of mine?



I guess my pick on the Jets didn’t win by enough? I’m not sure what more I can do. I’m not a miracle worker!

This is a critique on my timing:



I apologize to those who arrived two weeks ago, but congrats to those who arrived a few days ago!

Let’s finish this up with some non-hate mail for a change:



Thanks, Fred! That said, I love hate mail. It’s fun to respond to, it amuses people, and it keeps me accountable for bad weeks.

NEW ORLEANS OFFENSE: The Saints beat a Tennessee team with nothing to play for last week – an optical illusion in the standings meant that game had no bearing on the playoffs for the Titans – but it was still an important victory for New Orleans as far as playoff seeding was concerned. I normally wouldn’t have a big take-away when one team is battling another that has nothing to play for, but an important thing happened in that contest.

That would be Alvin Kamara’s emergence. Kamara had largely struggled since returning from injury, but like Saquon Barkley did versus the Redskins, Kamara suddenly improved and looked like his former, dominant self. If this wasn’t a mirage, it’ll be huge for the Saints moving forward. Kamara’s ability to score whenever he touches the ball will give them a great chance to win the Super Bowl, even if they have to go into Green Bay or San Francisco in the playoffs.

Kamara, of course, should be able to dominate this matchup. The Panthers have one of the worst run defenses in the NFL, so Kamara will likely have a tremendous performance. This will make life easier for Drew Brees, who will be throwing into a defense that could be missing several starters.

CAROLINA OFFENSE: Will Grier made his NFL debut last week. While he did some nice things – he was able to effectively extend plays in the pocket with his legs – he tossed mostly checkdowns and never threatened Indianapolis’ injury-ravaged secondary. He also threw three interceptions, though two weren’t his fault because the opposing defensive backs snatched balls away from his receivers.

Speaking of Grier’s receivers, it didn’t help that D.J. Moore was knocked out with a concussion on the second drive of the game. Given that this is the season finale, the Panthers may not push Moore to return. In fact, it wouldn’t surprise me if they lightened Christian McCaffrey’s workload as well. There’s no reason to run McCaffrey into the ground in Week 17, so he could play fewer snaps than usual. If so, the Panthers won’t have any sort of chance to move the chains consistently, as last week’s approach was basically just Grier tossing checkdowns to McCaffrey over and over again.

RECAP: If the public isn’t going to bet the Saints as heavily as initially anticipated, I’m going to have even more interest in the visitor than I originally planned. This game means much more to New Orleans than it does to the Panthers, who could hold out several key players. With nothing to play for, the Panthers could put forth a lackluster effort, which gives them no hope, especially considering who their quarterback is.

The Saints, meanwhile, have so much more at stake. They’ll be focused on getting a first-round bye, which they can achieve by winning and then seeing the 49ers lose to the Saints on Sunday night.

I’m going to bet New Orleans for three units, and if this public action continues to drop, I might just make it four.

THURSDAY THOUGHTS: Public action has actually risen over Christmas, which is not a surprise. I don’t understand why anyone would bet the Panthers at this point. They’re purely a contrarian play at this point, and it’s often a bad idea to be just purely contrarian.

FRIDAY UPDATE: It appears as though the Saints could have Larry Warford back from injury this week, which would be a nice bonus against a Carolina squad that appears as though it’ll be missing D.J. Moore.

SATURDAY NOTES: Larry Warford isn’t even on the injury report anymore, which is huge for the Saints. Meanwhile, the Panthers will be missing D.J. Moore and Shaq Thompson, so New Orleans should win easily.

FINAL THOUGHTS: This spread has risen to -14 in some sportsbooks, which is good news for us New Orleans bettors (the sharps are not taking the Panthers.) Unfortunately, I can’t find any -13.5 -110s, and I’m not paying -115 for that line. I’d rather go with -14 -105 at BetUS.


The Motivation. Edge: Saints.
The Panthers will have a new coach next year, so they won’t have anything to play for.


The Spread. Edge: None.

WalterFootball.com Calculated Spread: Saints -10.
Las Vegas Hilton Advance Point Spread: Saints -11.
Computer Model: Saints -13.
DVOA Spread: Saints -11.5 (last week).


The Vegas. Edge: Panthers.
Tons of money on the Saints.

Percentage of money on New Orleans: 79% (3,000 bets)


The Trends. Edge: Saints.

History: Saints have won 6 of the last 8 meetings.

Drew Brees is 53-33 ATS off back-to-back wins.

Saints are 12-16 ATS as road favorites of 4 or more since 2010.

Opening Line: Saints -11.

Opening Total: 48.

Weather: Possible light rain, 61 degrees. Light wind.

Week 17 NFL Pick: Saints 38, Panthers 13
Saints -14 -105 (3 Units) – BetUS — Correct; +$300
Over 45 (0 Units) — Correct; $0
Saints 42, Panthers 10

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New York Jets (6-9) at Buffalo Bills (10-5)
Line: Bills by 1. Total: 37.5.
Sunday, Dec. 29, 1:00 PM


The Matchup. Edge: None.

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RESTING STARTERS: It’s Week 17, so I’m not going to analyze the matchups of games where teams will be resting their starters. This is one such game, as the Bills are locked into the No. 5 seed in the AFC playoffs.

RECAP: I’d be concerned about Sam Darnold’s outlook against Buffalo’s front, and I’d wonder how the Jets’ injury-ravaged secondary would contain John Brown or Cole Beasley, but we won’t have to worry about that with the Bills presumably resting their starters.

Still, the Bills will have some chance to win this game, as Matt Barkley is a solid backup quarterback. I don’t know how much effort they’ll put into this, however. Meanwhile, the Jets are playing hard, as they have something to build on for next year. Winning this game could serve as a course correction from Week 1 when a mono-stricken Darnold blew a 16-0 lead to lose by one.

I’m going to mark down the Jets as a two-unit wager, but I will admittedly not be betting this game because I have so much at stake. I have big wagers on the Jets Over 7 and 6.5 tickets, so I’m hoping for a push and a win on those, respectively. Those would’ve both cashed had Darnold not missed several weeks with mono, but there’s nothing that can be done about that now.

THURSDAY THOUGHTS: Here’s another instance where the clueless public is betting on a backup quarterback. Again, I’m tempted to wager more than I already am on this situation. We’ll see what happens.

FRIDAY UPDATE: The Jets could be missing all of their interior linemen again. That would be a problem if the Bills weren’t likely to sit their starters.

SATURDAY NOTES: If you like the Jets, bet them now before people realize that the Bills won’t be playing their starters. New York has so many injuries, but I’d still wager two units on them. I’m just going to discard the point and take the moneyline. The best number I found for that is -103 at 5Dimes.

FINAL THOUGHTS: Several prominent Buffalo starters are inactive, as expected. It’s either Jets or nothing, but New York has so many injuries, so my wager on them is limited.


The Motivation. Edge: Jets.
The Bills will likely be sitting their starters.


The Spread. Edge: None.

WalterFootball.com Calculated Spread: No Line.
Las Vegas Hilton Advance Point Spread: Bills -4.5.
Computer Model: No Line.
DVOA Spread: No Line.


The Vegas. Edge: Jets.
People are betting on the Bills’ backups.

Percentage of money on Buffalo: 70% (4,000 bets)


The Trends. Edge: Bills.

History: Bills have won 8 of the last 12 meetings.

Bills are 22-11 ATS after playing the New England Patriots since 1999.

Opening Line: Bills -6.5.

Opening Total: 37.

Weather: Light rain, 42 degrees. Light rain.

Week 17 NFL Pick: Jets 23, Bills 17
Jets PK -103 (2 Units) – 5Dimes — Correct; +$200
Over 37.5 (0 Units) — Incorrect; $0
Jets 13, Bills 6

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Miami Dolphins (4-11) at New England Patriots (12-3)
Line: Patriots by 16.5. Total: 44.5.
Sunday, Dec. 29, 1:00 PM


The Matchup. Edge: Patriots.

I wouldn’t say my weekly random NFL notes cluttered these picks pages, so I’ll keep them here. What I’m also going to do is store all of them in a Random NFL Notes section so that you can go back and read previous entries in the future.

Some random NFL notes I can’t put anywhere else:

1. I’m writing this as I’m watching the Texans-Buccaneers game, which was marred by ridiculous Tampa turnovers and also horrific officiating. It’s only been 25 minutes of game action, and yet there have been half-a-dozen blown calls already.

I don’t understand why the NFL can’t figure out its officiating. It’s been horrible for so many years. You’d think a billion-dollar industry like the NFL could at least have mediocre officiating at the very worst, but it seems to be the worst refereeing in any sport.

I hate people who complain and yet offer no solutions – douchey blue-checkmarked losers on Twitter often do this – so here’s what I propose: I think the NFL needs to hold officiating competitions in the offseason, and the best officials in those competitions get to work in the NFL that year. Of course, these officials need to be vetted because they could aim to fix games like Tim Donaghy did in the NBA. However, if they’re clean, and they do very well in the competition, they can work as refs in the NFL.

2. Speaking of that Tampa Bay-Houston game, it was part of what I like to call the NFL’s Divorce Package. Each year, the NFL plays games on the preceding Saturday before Christmas. This obviously infuriates wives who don’t like football. This includes my wife, as the following conversation took place between us a few days prior to the Divorce Package:

Wife: Can we do something fun this Saturday?

Me: I’d like to, but there are three games on.

Wife (jokingly): That’s it, I want a divorce!

See? I never even told her about my Divorce Package, and yet she joked about it.

Don’t get me wrong; I love having games on Saturday. When I was single, these days used to be the best. But I think there’s something to the divorce aspect of these games. I’ve written before that Roger Goodell’s wet dream is for every single married couple to get divorced so that the football fans can tune into more games, and the Divorce Package is evidence of that.

3. I usually discuss crazy things my dad says in this spot. He called Ezekiel Elliott the most-hated player in the NFL because he’s “disgusting” and then said everyone hates Andy Reid because he’s a “pig.” He then took issue with Baker Mayfield’s girlfriend in that one commercial where she asks for a straw for her lemonade. “How about you put my dick in your mouth?” he yelled, pretending to be Mayfield. He recently called FOX sideline reporter Kristina Pink a “whore.” I’m still not sure why, but it apparently was because she had sperm on her lips. I don’t know.

My dad has recently become frustrated with Doug Pederson. He wants him fired, and I wrote last week that he wants to replace Pederson with Jason Garrett.

I think I’ve managed to talk him into Garrett being terrible. He’s come up with a new candidate to replace Pederson:

Dad: What about that Packers coach? Mike McCartney. He’s great.

Me: Ugh. No. Mike McCarTHy is terrible.

Dad: Why? He won a Super Bowl!

Me: Aaron Rodgers won a Super Bowl. And he would’ve won more than one Super Bowl if he had a better coach.

Dad: No, you’re wrong. MIKE MCCARTHY IS A GREAT COACH!

He yelled this. I don’t know why he was so passionate about a coach whose offense is in the stone ages, but I could see other Eagle fans thinking this way. Oh, and Panthers owner Bobby Axelrod as well. Axelrod brought in McCarthy for an interview, which seems like a waste of time. Carolina will be making a huge mistake by hiring McCarthy, but Axelrod seems intent on running his franchise into the ground.

NEW ENGLAND OFFENSE: The Patriots looked like their former selves against the Bills, which might have been the least-surprising thing in the world. Bill Belichick is apparently good at this coaching thing, so he and his staff were able to figure something out to improve their chances of winning the Super Bowl.

The Patriots controlled possession of the ball against the Bills, which was impressive, given how good Buffalo’s defense is. The Dolphins, conversely, are horrible on this side of the ball. They have no pass rush, while their secondary is a mess because of all the injuries they’ve suffered in that area. The Dolphins have surrendered huge passing performances to everyone, including Andy Dalton. Assuming what we saw from the Patriots last week wasn’t a mirage, Tom Brady shouldn’t have any issues moving the chains.

Brady may not even need to do all of the work. The Dolphins are poor versus the run as well, so Sony Michel, who looked spry for the first time all season, could continue to thrive, perhaps duplicating what he did during last year’s playoff run.

MIAMI OFFENSE: It’s amazing that Ryan Fitzpatrick hasn’t imploded yet. Fitzpatrick always has some great performances, then crushes his team’s hopes with a multi-interception meltdown. Perhaps that’ll occur in the finale, but things have gone well for Fitzpatrick the entire year, which is shocking, given how bad Miami’s offensive line is.

Being able to throw to DeVante Parker has been huge for Fitzpatrick, as Parker has finally emerged as the No. 1-type receiver the Dolphins thought they were getting when they used a first-round pick on him in the 2015 NFL Draft. However, Parker could suffer a setback in this game, given that he’ll have to deal with the best cornerback in the NFL, Stephon Gilmore. Fitzpatrick will have to look elsewhere, and that will be problematic because the Patriots have other very talented corners.

This is where running the ball would be beneficial. The Patriots are weaker to the run than the pass, so a strong Dolphin ground attack could help them keep Brady off the field. However, the Dolphins can’t run well whatsoever because their horrible backs don’t have any sort of blocking.

RECAP: The Patriots aren’t new to taking care of business in the final game of the season. In fact, they’re 14-3 against the spread in Week 17 contests under Brady. I hate trends ever since they ruined my handicapping process in the first half of this decade, but this seems significant because it denotes how well Belichick can coach against opponents that may not be fully invested into winning a meaningless affair.

I expect that record to improve to 15-3 following this week. I just don’t see how the Dolphins will move the chains against New England’s excellent defense. Conversely, the Patriots finally seem to be clicking offensively, so I don’t see why that would change against an inferior opponent.

This is a high spread, but with the public backing the Dolphins, I’m comfortable wagering at least a couple of units on the Patriots. I wouldn’t go crazy with this because something fluky like a punt return touchdown or a strip-six could make covering 15.5 points very difficult, but I think New England is worth a three-unit bet.

THURSDAY THOUGHTS: I can’t believe there’s so much public money on the Dolphins. No one is buying the Patriots yet, so I think this is something we can use to our advantage (and not just this week.)

FRIDAY UPDATE: It looks like there’s a bit of sharp money on the Patriots, which I can’t say is too surprising.

SATURDAY NOTES: I should clarify that there was some sharp money on the Patriots at -15.5 and also -16 on Saturday. It’s not a crazy amount, but the pros are on the host, as opposed to the public.

FINAL THOUGHTS: There are some -17s popping up. The best line I see is at Heritage; it’s -16.5 -108.


The Motivation. Edge: None.
No edge found.


The Spread. Edge: None.

WalterFootball.com Calculated Spread: Patriots -13.
Las Vegas Hilton Advance Point Spread: Patriots -14.5.
Computer Model: Patriots -18.
DVOA Spread: Patriots -14 (last week).


The Vegas. Edge: None.
The public is backing the Dolphins over the Patriots. Hmm…

Percentage of money on Miami: 59% (4,000 bets)


The Trends. Edge: Patriots.

History: Patriots have won 17 of the last 25 meetings (Home Team has won 13 of the last 16 meetings).

Patriots are 61-42 ATS vs. AFC East opponents since 2001.

Patriots are 42-19 ATS in December & January home games since 2000.

Patriots are 14-3 ATS in Week 17 since 2001.

Tom Brady is 247-76 as a starter (184-125 ATS).

Tom Brady is 38-36 ATS as a home favorite of -9 or more (27-29 ATS since November 2007).

Opening Line: Patriots -16.5.

Opening Total: 43.5.

Weather: Partly cloudy, 41 degrees. Light wind.

Week 17 NFL Pick: Patriots 38, Dolphins 17
Patriots -16.5 -108 (3 Units) – Heritage — Incorrect; -$325
Over 44.5 (0 Units) — Correct; $0
Dolphins 27, Patriots 24

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Green Bay Packers (12-3) at Detroit Lions (3-11-1)
Line: Packers by 12.5. Total: 43.5.
Sunday, Dec. 29, 1:00 PM


The Matchup. Edge: Packers.

As with the random NFL notes, I’m going to have all of my Random College Football Notes on one page as well. Oh, and you can find my College Football Picks here.

Random College Football Notes:

1. If you haven’t seen them, we have College Football Bowl Picks. Some of the bowl games we’ve covered thus far are the Magic the Gathering Bowl, Redwyne Arbor Bowl and the Haas & Milan Bowl.

What? You haven’t heard about those bowl games? That’s OK, just look at the matchups. I personally don’t care about the names of these stupid games, or which companies are sponsoring them, so I’ve decided to create my own sponsors. Haas & Milan is my favorite fake sponsor. I don’t care what anyone says; “Hungry for Apples?” is a great slogan.

2. I brought up that we have grades for the 2020 NFL Draft Underclassmen last week. I want to delve into that a little bit.

I don’t think we’ve had any surprise returns yet, but I assume there will be one or two. Whenever I’ve criticized first-round prospects for returning to school, there’s always someone who replies to me, “But they’re just trying to get their education.”

I always dismissed this as nonsense because the players in question could make money in the pros and then go back to school later (or take online classes) to get their degree. Staying in school always seemed unnecessary.

Now, I think it might be detrimental. Given how universities have regressed into young adult daycare centers comprised of dumb safe spaces, corrupt professors who brainwash their students and courses about Antarctican Dance History, degrees are now more worthless than ever. My wife and I are thinking about having children soon, and unless my future kids want to become doctors or lawyers, I’m thinking about keeping them away from college, encouraging them to start their own businesses instead.

3. I’ve posted pictures of “hot Penn State girls” and “hot Ohio State girls” in the past, as per request from some commenters. I thought about not really saying anything about the Army-Navy game last week, aside from wishing Army and Navy would play against terrorist organizations like Al-Qaeda and Antifa.

I thought it would be funny to post pictures of “hot Army girls.” I thought when I’d Google “hot Army girls,” I’d see porn stars dressed in Army garb. Little did I know that there are a series of countless side-by-side images showing real girls in the Army and then pictures of them in bikinis or revealing tank tops. It’s pretty wild! Here’s an example:



I had no idea this was a thing, but it’s awesome! There are lots of side-by-side images like this, and they’re worth checking out, even if you just want to be patriotic.

GREEN BAY OFFENSE: The Packers tried their hardest to lose to the Vikings, committing three turnovers in the first half that turned into 10 Minnesota points. Aaron Rodgers and his top two play-makers were guilty of this, but when they began playing a cleaner game, Green Bay got into a rhythm and scored a healthy number of points against a stellar defense.

Obviously, this is a much easier matchup for the Packers. Detroit’s defense has tons of problems. The secondary is a mess and can’t stop anyone, so Rodgers will thrive when throwing into it. The linebacking corps, now down its top two players at the position, will also have trouble stopping Aaron Jones as a receiver out of the backfield.

Speaking of Jones, he should be able to take advantage of a defense that couldn’t contain Phillip Lindsay last week. The Lions also have multiple injuries on their defensive line, which has rendered them to be much worse against the run than they were earlier in the year.

DETROIT OFFENSE: The Packers were able to prevail over the Vikings because their defense was so dominant. Green Bay’s stop unit surrendered zero points when not counting those Minnesota scored off turnovers. It was a truly brilliant performance, particularly by Za’Darius Smith, who lived in the Vikings’ backfield.

The Lions could be missing two offensive linemen once again, which will be very problematic for David Blough, who has regressed since his impressive Thanksgiving debut. Blough hasn’t had the best luck in his matchups, but this is another tough one. If Kirk Cousins couldn’t throw into Green Bay’s secondary with Stefon Diggs and Adam Thielen at his disposal, how can Blough have success without the services of Marvin Jones and T.J. Hockenson?

While Jones and Hockenson are out, Kerryon Johnson has returned to strengthen the backfield. Johnson is definitely a threat, but the Packers can focus on stopping him, given that they won’t have to worry much about Blough beating them downfield.

RECAP: This game means something to the Packers because they can obtain home-field advantage throughout the playoffs if they win and San Francisco loses Sunday night. Even if the 49ers don’t lose, it’ll be imperative for the Packers to win because they’ll risk losing a bye if the Saints prevail over Carolina.

Thus, I expect the Packers to be focused against a dreadful opponent. The Lions have been woeful ever since Thanksgiving. They lost by 13 to the Vikings, 21 to the Buccaneers and 10 at Denver, despite scoring on a special-teams touchdown.

Unless something fluky like that happens in this game, it’s difficult to envision the Lions being anywhere near the Packers. Thus, I’m willing to wager a couple of units on the favorite, even though the line is inflated.

THURSDAY THOUGHTS: Someone during the picks video asked me if I thought this could be a “Super Bowl” game for the Lions. It could, except Detroit has so many injured players. The Lions aren’t even a real team right now, given how many players are hurt.

FRIDAY UPDATE: Some public money is beginning to come in on the Packers, but it’s not a substantial amount.

SATURDAY NOTES: It looks as though Ricky Wagner will be back from injury, which will help Detroit’s offense just a bit. The Packers look a bit less appealing now, but I had only two units on them to begin with. There’s been a bit of sharp money on Detroit, perhaps because of the Wagner news, but nothing substantial.

FINAL THOUGHTS: Ricky Wagner won’t play after all! Also, it sounds like there are tons of Packer fans in the stands, from what I’ve gathered on Twitter. The best line I’ve found is -11 -108 at Heritage. I’m going to put a third unit on Green Bay.


The Motivation. Edge: None.
No edge found.


The Spread. Edge: Lions.

WalterFootball.com Calculated Spread: Packers -9.
Las Vegas Hilton Advance Point Spread: Packers -10.
Computer Model: Packers -11.
DVOA Spread: Packers -6.5 (last week).


The Vegas. Edge: Lions.
Lots of late money on the Packers.

Percentage of money on Green Bay: 68% (8,000 bets)


The Trends. Edge: Packers.

History: Lions have won 4 of the last 5 meetings.

Packers are 50-30 ATS in divisional games since 2006.

Aaron Rodgers is 97-66 ATS since 2009.

Lions are 16-11 ATS as a double-digit underdog since 2006 (5-10 since 2009).

Lions are 6-17 ATS as underdogs of 6 or more since 2011.

Opening Line: Packers -10.

Opening Total: 43.5.

Weather: Dome.

Week 17 NFL Pick: Packers 27, Lions 13
Packers -11.5 -108 (3 Units) – Heritage — Incorrect; -$325
Under 43.5 (0 Units) — Correct; $0
Packers 23, Lions 20

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Los Angeles Chargers (5-10) at Kansas City Chiefs (11-4)
Line: Chiefs by 10. Total: 45.5.
Sunday, Dec. 29, 1:00 PM


The Matchup. Edge: TBA.

If you’ve followed this site for a while, you might remember that I like to respond to my spam mails. It all started seven years ago, when a man named Jon Wire from the “United Bank of Africoan” promised me an ATM card of some sort, so I responded as a man named Mister Compassion Chuck Norris, who was raised by wolves. The following season, I received e-mails from Richard Held and Loon Bruce, who told me I won a Facebook Award, which comes with a “lump sum pay out of (750,000.00 GBP).” Pretending to be Matthew Millen Kim, I sent out my application and fake money.

I’ve been messing around with spammers ever since, pretending to be Harvey Weinstein, Tom Brady, Ramsay Bolton and Walter White. I have brand new Spam Mails this year, so check them out if you want to see me screw with spammers. I’ll have new ones every week!

KANSAS CITY OFFENSE: The Chargers managed to hold the Chiefs’ scoring unit in check the first time these teams played each other in Mexico City. Of course, Tyreek Hill suffered an injury very early into the evening; otherwise, that game could have gone much differently.

Hill is healthy, though the same can be said for Derwin James, whose presence improved the Chargers’ defense, at least prior to this past week. Derek Carr had a great performance against this stop unit this past Sunday, but I don’t think the Chargers put forth a great effort in that contest, perhaps because they were so discouraged by seeing so many Raider fans in the stands. The Chargers have a better defense than what we saw this past week; the fact that the Raiders moved the chains so easily despite missing Josh Jacobs and two starting offensive linemen was very telling.

I think we’ll see a much better effort from the Chargers, who have the tools – James, Joey Bosa, Melvin Ingram, Casey Hayward, etc. – to slow down Patrick Mahomes and his weapons, at least a bit. However, the same could be said of the Bears, and yet we saw what happened when Mahomes was counting to 10 on his fingers as the game progressed.

SAN ANGELES OFFENSE: While the Raiders moving the chains on the Chargers was surprising, the Chargers being unable to score was more predictable. They’ve been far worse on this side of the ball when their left tackle, Russell Okung, has been out of the lineup. It’s unclear if Okung will be able to return for the finale. If not, his backup won’t stand a chance against Frank Clark. Terrell Suggs will also bring heat on the other side.

This will obviously make life very difficult for Philip Rivers, who will be throwing into a secondary that has been excellent against the pass after the first month of the season. Still, Rivers has plenty of dynamic weapons at his disposal, so he’ll be able to move the chains occasionally, especially in garbage time.

It’ll be interesting to see if Melvin Gordon has success picking up yardage on the ground. The Chiefs had a very leaky run defense earlier in the year, but have improved in that regard in recent weeks. Chris Jones is a terror in the interior of the trenches, and he should be able to win his matchup very easily.

RECAP: The Chiefs appear to have something to play for, as they have an outside shot at a first-round bye. If they win, and the Patriots somehow lose to the Dolphins, they’ll be the No. 2 seed.

While the Chiefs could be motivated to start the game, that could quickly change around halftime. If the Patriots are up by 20-plus at that point – which is definitely a possibility – Andy Reid could opt to pull his starters. That would allow the Chargers to cover, or perhaps even win outright.

Obviously, there’s no guarantee this will happen, but it’s a realistic possibility. Thus, I don’t know what people are thinking with this 90-percent betting clip on the Chiefs. I’ll be on the Chargers, and I may even bet them if Okung plays. Rivers has a knack for keeping games close, particularly via garbage time, so I could see this being a seven-point affair.

THURSDAY THOUGHTS: A few people asked me if the Chiefs would care about being the No. 4 seed rather than the No. 3. In my experience as a degenerate gambler, I haven’t seen teams really focus on that, so I’m not buying into the Chiefs not sitting their starters if they see New England up by a lot.

FRIDAY UPDATE: Russell Okung has yet to practice this week. This is a bummer because Okung’s presence is required for me to bet the Chargers at all.

SATURDAY NOTES: Russell Okung has officially been ruled out, which will negate any sort of big play on the Chargers. This might still be a one- or two-unit selection, depending on any breaking news.

FINAL THOUGHTS: I was looking for a +10, and we have one at Bookmaker for -115 juice. I hate that the Chargers won’t have Russell Okung, so this will be just a one-unit wager.


The Motivation. Edge: None.
No edge found.


The Spread. Edge: None.

WalterFootball.com Calculated Spread: Chiefs -7.5.
Las Vegas Hilton Advance Point Spread: Chiefs -7.
Computer Model: Chiefs -10.
DVOA Spread: Chiefs -7 (last week).


The Vegas. Edge: Chargers.
No one is betting on San Angeles.

Percentage of money on Kansas City: 85% (4,000 bets)


The Trends. Edge: Chargers.

History: Chiefs have won 10 of the last 11 meetings.

Philip Rivers is 13-6 ATS as an underdog of 6.5 or more.

Philip Rivers is 26-12 ATS as a road underdog of 3.5 or more.

Opening Line: Chiefs -7.

Opening Total: 48.

Weather: Partly cloudy, 41 degrees. Mild wind, 12 mph.

Week 17 NFL Pick: Chiefs 31, Chargers 24
Chargers +10 -115 (1 Unit) – Bookmaker — Push; $0
Over 45 (0 Units) — Correct; $0
Chiefs 31, Chargers 21

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Week 17 NFL Picks – Late Games
Titans at Texans, Colts at Jaguars, Redskins at Cowboys, Eagles at Giants, Steelers at Ravens, Raiders at Broncos, Cardinals at Rams, 49ers at Seahawks




Prop/Teaser/Parlay Picks
A list of some of my favorite team/player prop picks this week
(Offense & defensive ROY picks to be counted whenever winners are announced.) Picks carried over on a week-to-week basis will be in black.

Prop/teaser/parlay picks posted in Week 17 NFL Picks – Late Games



2024 NFL Mock Draft - April 23


NFL Power Rankings - Feb. 22


Fantasy Football Rankings - Feb. 19


NFL Picks - Feb. 12




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My Team-by-Team ATS Record
This section shows how well I do when picking each team this year. The purpose is to see how well I read each team. Pushes are not displayed. Winning/losing streak in parentheses.

Cowboys: 8-9	Bears: 11-4	Bucs: 6-11	49ers: 10-7
Eagles: 7-7	Lions: 9-8	Falcons: 8-9	Cardinals: 8-9
Giants: 7-9	Packers: 5-12	Panthers: 8-9	Rams: 8-9
Redskins: 14-3	Vikings: 6-9	Saints: 10-7	Seahawks: 7-9
Bills: 9-7	Bengals: 12-5	Colts: 7-10	Broncos: 9-6
Dolphins: 6-11	Browns: 11-5	Jaguars: 13-4	Chargers: 8-9
Jets: 8-9	Ravens: 11-6	Texans: 5-12	Chiefs: 5-10
Patriots: 7-9	Steelers: 11-6	Titans: 9-8	Raiders: 6-9
Divisional: 50-35 (2011-22: 558-526)	2x Game Edge: 36-24 (2011-22: 363-361)	2x Motivation Edge: 32-36 (2011-22: 478-405)	2x Spread Edge: 41-40 (2011-22: 197-168)
2x Vegas Edge: 41-38 (2011-22: 407-406)	2x Trend Edge: 15-13 (2011-22: 306-279)	Double Edge: 17-13 (2011-22: 190-172)	Triple Edge: 1-1 (2011-22: 32-36)