NFL Picks Against the Spread: Week 1, 2019

NFL Picks (Preseason 2019): 14-6 (+$1,535)
NFL Picks (Week 1, 2019): 0-0 ($0)

NFL Picks (2019): 14-6 (+$1,535)
NFL Picks (2018): 140-134-12 (+$845)
NFL Picks (2017): 137-147-10 (-$4,300)
NFL Picks (2016): 148-127-10 (+$780)
NFL Picks (2015): 133-138-10 (-$3,215)
NFL Picks (2014): 143-133-7 (-$1,885)
NFL Picks (2013): 144-131-8 (+$7,825)
NFL Picks (2012): 130-145-8 (-$7,445)
NFL Picks (2011): 137-133-12 (-$1,335)
NFL Picks (2010): 144-131-8 (+$5,880)
NFL Picks (2009): 151-124-9 (+$4,235)
NFL Picks (2008): 136-125-6 (+$6,105)
NFL Picks (2007): 162-135-10 (+$3,585)
If you don’t quite understand the line, total or anything else, go to my Sports Betting FAQ.

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Vegas betting action updated Sept. 8, 11:40 a.m. ET. Follow @walterfootball for updates.


Go to Week 1 NFL Picks – Early Games







Cincinnati Bengals (0-0) at Seattle Seahawks (0-0)
Line: Seahawks by 9.5. Total: 44.5.
Sunday, Sept. 8, 4:05 PM


The Matchup. Edge: Seahawks.

Video of the Week: I’ll usually post funny videos here, but I’d like to take this opportunity to showcase our own YouTube channel:



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CINCINNATI OFFENSE: I’ve discussed some bad offensive lines when delving into the eight previous matchups. Of the 16 teams I discussed, only the Dolphins have a worse offensive line than the Bengals, and that’s not even taking Cordy Glenn’s concussion into account. Glenn may miss this game, which would be horrible news for a blocking group that previously lost Jonah Williams to an injury and Clint Boling to retirement. Glenn’s absence would mean that a backup tackle will suddenly be tasked with blocking newly acquired Jadeveon Clowney.

Making matters worse for the Bengals, they have just one viable receiver in the wake of A.J. Green’s injury. That would be Tyler Boyd, who performed well last year when Green was on the field. However, Boyd’s numbers declined when Green suffered an injury, as opposing defenses were able to use their No. 1 cornerbacks to cover him. The Seahawks will be able to focus on Boyd and limit him for the most part.

I don’t expect much from Joe Mixon either. We’ve already established that the Bengals can’t block. It must also be noted that the Seahawks project to be strong versus the run, as Poona Ford is a massive force when it comes to clogging running lanes.

SEATTLE OFFENSE: Russell Wilson knows a thing or two about being protected poorly, but the Seahawks, who have perennially sported one of the worst offensive lines in the NFL, suddenly aren’t so bad up front. Sure, there’s lots of room for improvement, but between left tackle Duane Brown and center Justin Britt, Seattle at least has some viable starting linemen, unlike the Dolphins, the Glenn-less Bengals and another team I’ll discuss next.

Wilson has another problem though, and that would be Doug Baldwin’s retirement. Baldwin leaving means that Wilson has one dependable receiver to throw to in Tyler Lockett. I like Lockett a lot – much more than Boyd – but the Bengals will be able to send constant double teams his way, meaning Wilson will have to look toward the pedestrian Jaron Brown, inexperienced John Ursua and raw D.K. Metcalf, a body builder who doesn’t know how to play football yet.

Things may sound bleak for the Seahawks’ offense so far, but there is one thing to consider, and that would be the Bengals’ putrid linebacking corps. Cincinnati could have the worst linebackers in the NFL, so the Seahawks should be able to establish Chris Carson rather well. I also expect Wilson to pick up chunks of yardage as a scrambler, as he is wont to do.

RECAP: I like the Seahawks, but the unit count will depend on Glenn’s status. If Glenn sits, Cincinnati won’t have a functional offensive line. I consider teams with blocking as poor as the Glenn-less Bengals to be fundamentally flawed. If you can’t block in the NFL, you can’t be competitive, and Cincinnati won’t be able to block whatsoever without Glenn.

Stay tuned for updates on this one, but even if Glenn sits, I still like the Seahawks for a unit or two. The Bengals are one of the worst teams in the NFL and will be a hard fade most weeks.

THURSDAY THOUGHTS: This is like the Eagles-Redskins game, where I wouldn’t really have much interest in the Seahawks above -10. I’m still debating the unit count, but I’ll have the final decision once Cordy Glenn’s status is known.

SATURDAY NOTES: Cordy Glenn is out, which means Cincinnati’s offensive line is a disaster. This will obviously increase my unit count on Seattle to three.

SUNDAY MORNING NOTES: This line is creeping up to -10 in many books, but 5Dimes still has -9.5 -110 available. I’d lock that in now because 10 is the No. 5 key number in the NFL.

FINAL THOUGHTS: It turns out I locked this in prematurely, as Bookmaker has +9 available. Losing out on nine shouldn’t be a big deal, though it’s worth noting that there’s a bit of sharp money on the Bengals. The sharps, by the way, are taking a beating as of this writing, with the Panthers and Jaguars currently losing.


The Motivation. Edge: None.
No edge found.


The Spread. Edge: None.

WalterFootball.com Calculated Spread: Seahawks -9.
Las Vegas Hilton Advance Point Spread: .
Computer Model: Seahawks -10.
DVOA Spread: Seahawks -9.


The Vegas. Edge: Bengals.
Slight lean on the host.

Percentage of money on Seattle: 63% (15,000 bets)


The Trends. Edge: Seahawks.

Seahawks are 25-6 ATS in September home games since 2000.

Seahawks are 46-28 ATS as home favorites since 2007.

Opening Line: Seahawks -8.

Opening Total: 43.5.

Weather: Cloudy, 68 degrees. Light wind.

Week 1 NFL Pick: Seahawks 31, Bengals 17
Seahawks -9.5 (3 Units) – 5Dimes — Incorrect; -$330
Under 44.5 (0 Units) — Correct; $0
Seahawks 21, Bengals 20

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Indianapolis Colts (0-0) at Los Angeles Chargers (0-0)
Line: Chargers by 6.5. Total: 44.5.
Sunday, Sept. 8, 4:05 PM


The Matchup. Edge: Colts.

The 2019 Adventures of Tom Brady will begin next week, starting with…



To read the 2018 Adventures of Tom Brady’s Haircuts click the link!

SAN ANGELES OFFENSE: I alluded to another horrible offensive line in the previous capsule, so I might as well address it. The Chargers have one of the worst blocking units in the NFL. Their best offensive lineman, Russell Okung, is out for the foreseeable future because of blood clots in his lungs. Hopefully he has a speedy recovery, but the Chargers won’t be able to keep Philip Rivers upright in his absence.

Okung’s replacement is someone named Trent Scott, who will be tasked with blocking Justin Houston. Granted, Houston is not the dynamic threat he once was, but he’s still a stellar edge rusher and will create some major problems in the Chargers’ backfield. The Chargers won’t be able to completely focus on Houston either, as they’ll have to worry about Jabaal Sheard on the other side as well.

Despite this, Rivers is a great quarterback and will still have some success moving the chains. The Chargers won’t score a high number of points, however, especially when considering that the Colts figure to be strong against the run. Melvin Gordon is holding out, and I don’t expect Austin Ekeler and Justin Jackson to have great success against a strong Indianapolis defense.

INDIANAPOLIS OFFENSE: This would have been a fun matchup between Rivers and Andrew Luck, but the latter retired. I never would have imagined that Luck, who was drafted eight years after Rivers, would call it quits first, but that’s what happened. Indianapolis will move forward with Jacoby Brissett.

Many have dismissed Brissett, but Bill Belichick thought highly enough of him to select him in the third round. Bill Parcells had encouraging things to say about him as well. Brissett didn’t have a great 2017 campaign with the Colts, but he arrived late to the team and was scrambling to learn a new system and develop chemistry with his teammates. The Colts didn’t have a good coaching staff or a solid offensive line either. Brissett figures to be much better with Frank Reich, and Indianapolis’ elite offensive line will help its quarterback immeasurably.

Something else that will help Brissett is Derwin James’ absence. The Chargers are missing one of their top defensive players, so Brissett could have a solid season opener. It helps that he won’t have to worry about Joey Bosa and Melvin Ingram as much as other quarterbacks will, given how good his offensive line is.

RECAP: Something that has worked extremely well for me over the years is betting on good teams without their starting quarterback in the first game. Every other player tends to perform at 110-percent capacity to compensate for this. The Colts, who were billed as a Super Bowl contender by some, have seen everyone write them off because of Luck’s retirement. This might be warranted, but Indianapolis will be out to prove that it should still be held in high regard.

This spread is way off, anyhow. Giving the Chargers just one point for their putrid home-field advantage, I made San Angeles four-point favorites. At +6.5, we’re getting the third-most important key number (6) and a push at four, which is significant. The Colts have a great overall roster, and Brissett, while far inferior when compared to Luck, isn’t as bad as people think. Meanwhile, the Chargers are fundamentally flawed because they can’t block.

On top of all that, the public is betting the Chargers rather heavily, with two-thirds of the wagers on the host. With so many factors favoring the Colts, I’m going to place five units on them. I’m holding out hope that we can get +7, but I still love Indianapolis at +6.5.

THURSDAY THOUGHTS: I still love the Colts. I’ll lock this in if a +7 reappears.

SATURDAY NOTES: There aren’t any +7s yet (at -110), but hopefully that changes soon. I love the Colts regardless, but I’d prefer the better number.

SUNDAY MORNING NOTES: So much for those +7s! The +6.5s are now gone because of sharp action on Indianapolis, as this line has sunk to +6. FanDuel’s sportsbook still has +6.5 available. I signed up because of that weird Packers-Bears line, so I’m going to take advantage of it.

FINAL THOUGHTS: This line continues to creep down, as Bookmaker even has +6 -115 listed. The pros are on the Colts.


The Motivation. Edge: Colts.
The Colts will want to prove that they can win without Andrew Luck. The Chargers, meanwhile, will be playing in front of no fans.


The Spread. Edge: Colts.

WalterFootball.com Calculated Spread: Chargers -4.
Las Vegas Hilton Advance Point Spread: .
Computer Model: Chargers -10.
DVOA Spread: Chargers -7.


The Vegas. Edge: Colts.
No surprise that people are betting the Chargers.

Percentage of money on San Angeles: 65% (20,000 bets)


The Trends. Edge: None.

Opening Line: Chargers -3.

Opening Total: 47.5.

Weather: Partly cloudy, 77 degrees. Light wind.

Week 1 NFL Pick: Colts 23, Chargers 20
Colts +6.5 (5 Units) – FanDuel — Correct; +$500
Under 44.5 (0 Units) — Incorrect; $0
Chargers 30, Colts 24

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San Francisco 49ers (0-0) at Tampa Bay Buccaneers (0-0)
Line: Pick. Total: 51.
Sunday, Sept. 8, 4:25 PM


The Matchup. Edge: Buccaneers.

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SAN FRANCISCO OFFENSE: Jimmy Garoppolo looked horrible in the second preseason game. I don’t really care about stats in nonsense exhibition contests, but it’s difficult to ignore 1-of-6 for zero yards and an interception. Still, the big take-away for me was that Garoppolo didn’t look like he completely trusted his surgically repaired knee. He was a bit better in the next game, but still didn’t seem quite right. If Garoppolo doesn’t feel comfortable throwing the ball, it goes without saying that the 49ers will not come anywhere close to meeting expectations.

Garoppolo’s confidence will be tested, as he’ll be pressured by Ndamukong Suh. The newcomer has a favorable matchup in this contest, as the 49ers block extremely well on the edge, but don’t have the best interior linemen. Meanwhile, throwing to Dante Pettis may not be so easy, as cornerback Carlton Davis looks like he’s ready to make the leap and become a solid No. 1 cornerback in the NFL. Garoppolo’s top option will be George Kittle, but between Devin White and Lavonte David, the Buccaneers should be able to cover tight ends well this year.

Establishing the run will be difficult for the 49ers as well. The Buccaneers will be better versus the rush than the pass again, as Suh and former first-rounder Vita Vea will clog the interior of the trenches, making it impossible for Tevin Coleman and Matt Breida to find running lanes.

TAMPA BAY OFFENSE: This is a big year for Jameis Winston, as this will be his last chance to prove that he can be a viable starting quarterback in the NFL. While Winston is a bozo, he has a legitimate shot to improve in 2019, thanks to Bruce Arians’ coaching. Arians will be Winston’s best coach by a mile, so I expect the troubled quarterback to make somewhat of a leap this year.

Winston will face some heat from a pair of talented edge rushers in Nick Bosa and Dee Ford. It would help if the Buccaneers found an upgrade over inept left tackle Donovan Smith this offseason, but in a brilliant move, the incompetent Jason Licht opted to give Smith a massive extension instead. Sometimes, you just have to overpay for worthless things for no apparent reason, and Licht proved that to be a proponent when he gave Smith too much money.

Luckily for Winston, it’s not all bleak, as his receivers have extremely favorable matchups. Richard Sherman will lock down one receiver, but the rest of San Francisco’s secondary is abysmal. Winston should be able to move the chains regularly throughout the afternoon, so we’ll see if he can convert in the red zone, unlike last year when he had major problems there.

RECAP: Like last year, the 49ers are getting unwarranted hype. Everyone believes they’ll make the playoffs, which was the case this past season. They began 2018 with a 1-2 record with Garoppolo on the field, and their sole win was a slim victory against the Lions. Now, Garoppolo is playing like he doesn’t trust his knee, which is very problematic.

With that in mind, this spread is way off. I don’t understand why it’s pick ’em. My calculated line for this game is Tampa Bay -3.5, as I have the Buccaneers a half point better than the 49ers. The computer model came up with a similar number, projecting Tampa Bay -3. None of this, by the way, factors in the heat. Despite this being a 4 p.m. start, it’s projected to be hot and humid in this Sept. 8 start.

I love that we’re getting spread and motivational edges with the Buccaneers. The cherry on top is that the public is betting the 49ers. I’m going the other way and wagering four units on Tampa, assuming the weather holds up.

THURSDAY THOUGHTS/UNIT CHANGE: Less public action is coming in on the 49ers than earlier, which is a bummer. Also, the computer model moved its spread from -3 to -2, so I’m a bit less enthusiastic about the Buccaneers, but I still like them quite a bit.

SATURDAY NOTES: A stomach bug is going around Tampa’s locker room, which is far from ideal. This could cause Mike Evans and/or Devin White to miss this game, which is even less ideal. We’ll see what happens, but I’m obviously going to be less enthusiastic about betting the Buccaneers. In fact, I’m moving this to zero units.

SUNDAY MORNING NOTES: It sounds like the key Buccaneer players will suit up, which is nice. However, the stomach bug could have an impact in this game, so I’m not going to bet it.

FINAL THOUGHTS: Again, I’m not betting this game because of the stomach bug going around Tampa’s locker room.


The Motivation. Edge: Buccaneers.
It figures to be hot and humid in Tampa, which will hinder the 49ers in their colored uniforms.


The Spread. Edge: Buccaneers.

WalterFootball.com Calculated Spread: Buccaneers -3.5.
Las Vegas Hilton Advance Point Spread: .
Computer Model: Buccaneers -3.
DVOA Spread: Buccaneers -1.


The Vegas. Edge: None.
Equal action.

Percentage of money on San Francisco: 54% (15,000 bets)


The Trends. Edge: 49ers.

Road Team is 89-57 ATS in Buccaneers games since 2009.

Buccaneers are 24-50 ATS at home in the previous 74 instances.

Opening Line: Buccaneers -1.5.

Opening Total: 49.

Weather: Hot and humid, 91 degrees. Light wind.

Week 1 NFL Pick: Buccaneers 30, 49ers 23
Buccaneers PK (0 Units) — Incorrect; $0
Over 51 (0 Units) — Incorrect; $0
49ers 31, Buccaneers 17

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Detroit Lions (0-0) at Arizona Cardinals (0-0)
Line: Lions by 3. Total: 46.
Sunday, Sept. 8, 4:25 PM


The Matchup. Edge: None.

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ARIZONA OFFENSE: It’s amazing how opinions can change so quickly. When Kyler Murray completed nearly every pass in the preseason opener, he was the greatest thing since sliced bread. The following week, he struggled, in part because of the clapping thing, and people began wondering if he could cut it in the NFL. He had an average performance in the third game, and no one even said a word about him.

I like Murray’s skill set and passion for the game, so I think he can succeed in the NFL, unlike Josh Rosen, who doesn’t like football. My worry is about Kliff Kingsbury, who seems like he could be outmatched. I also worry a bit about the offensive line, but only because the starters there tend to get hurt. Tackles D.J. Humphries and Marcus Gilbert, as well as guard Justin Pugh and center A.Q. Shipley are all very injury-prone, and all four missed time last year. They’re healthy now though, so Murray will have a fighting chance against the Lions. Detroit figures to have a better pass rush with Trey Flowers on the team, but there’s a chance Flowers becomes the latest ex-Patriot who flops without Bill Belichick coaching him up.

I think there’s a decent chance the Cardinals move the chains somewhat successfully in this contest. The Lions have some major holes on their defense, namely in the linebacking corps and at cornerback across from Darius Slay, so Murray might be able to exploit those liabilities.

DETROIT OFFENSE: I expect the Cardinals to make a big leap on this side of the ball as well. Not much is discussed regarding their offseason moves, but they made some good ones. They signed Terrell Suggs to be a potent edge rusher across from Chandler Jones, and the two should be able to provide some pressure on Matthew Stafford.

The Cardinals also signed linebacker Jordan Hicks away from the Eagles, while D.J. Swearinger also counts as an addition because he was acquired through waivers at the end of last season. Hicks and Swearinger will be crucial to the game plan, as the Cardinals will need to slow down rookie tight end T.J. Hockenson. The Iowa tight end figures to be Stafford’s new go-to intermediate talent, replacing Golden Tate.

That said, Stafford should be able to one hole in Arizona’s secondary, which is Patrick Peterson’s spot in the lineup. Peterson has been suspended, so the Detroit receivers should have a good game. Second-round rookie cornerback Byron Murphy looked good in the preseason, but he lacks experience at the moment.

RECAP: I’d be interested in betting the Cardinals at +3. This spread has been hovering around +1.5 and +2.5 throughout the summer, and despite countless bets coming in on Detroit, the line hasn’t moved very much.

Regardless, the Cardinals seem like the right side. I just don’t understand why they should be home underdogs, outside of out-of-whack public perception. These teams are close to even, so my projected number is Arizona -1.5. Unfortunately, the difference between +2.5 and -1.5 isn’t substantial enough to warrant a bet. A +3 would give us a nice spread edge, so hopefully we see that number appear later in the week.

THURSDAY THOUGHTS: I’m beginning to see some +3 -120s pop up. If we see +3 -110, I may consider a wager on Arizona.

SATURDAY NOTES: So much for +3 -110. The +3 -120s have even disappeared. The best line I see is +3 -125 at Bovada, which is not good enough to make me bet on the Cardinals. Also factoring in is right tackle Marcus Gilbert’s injury. It’s disappointing that Gilbert will have to miss the opener. His absence is enough for me to stay away from Arizona, even at +3 -110. I’m not betting Detroit though.

SUNDAY MORNING NOTES: If you like the Cardinals, you can find a +3 -115 at Bovada. I’m not going to bet them with Marcus Gilbert out.

FINAL THOUGHTS: The best line continues to be +3 -115 at Bovada. I still have no interest in betting this game.


The Motivation. Edge: None.
No edge found.


The Spread. Edge: None.

WalterFootball.com Calculated Spread: Cardinals -1.5.
Las Vegas Hilton Advance Point Spread: .
Computer Model: Lions -5.
DVOA Spread: Cardinals -1.


The Vegas. Edge: Cardinals.
Everyone is betting the Lions as a road favorite.

Percentage of money on Detroit: 75% (14,000 bets)


The Trends. Edge: Cardinals.

Cardinals are 34-19 ATS at home as underdogs or favorites of less than -3 since 2007.

Opening Line: Lions -1.

Opening Total: 47.5.

Weather: Dome.

Week 1 NFL Pick: Cardinals 21, Lions 20
Cardinals +3 (0 Units) — Correct; $0
Under 46 (0 Units) — Incorrect; $0
Cardinals 27, Lions 27

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New York Giants (0-0) at Dallas Cowboys (0-0)
Line: Cowboys by 7. Total: 44.5.
Sunday, Sept. 8, 4:25 PM


The Matchup. Edge: None.

Emmitt on the Brink Season 12 will be underway next week, and I think it’s going to be the best season yet! In the meantime, click the link to read Seasons 1-11.

DALLAS OFFENSE: I was hoping the Ezekiel Elliott matter would be resolved by the time I got to this pick, one way or the other. However, Adam Schefter is reporting a deal is close. Nothing is guaranteed, but the smart money seems to be on Elliott signing a contract and shouldering half the workload in Week 1 before getting the maximum number of carries in Week 2.

Elliott’s contract being close would explain why the juice has increased on Dallas -7. There are some -7 -115s popping up, and it wouldn’t surprise me if this line moved to -7.5 when Elliott signs. However, this would only provide us with nice value on the Giants, as Elliott may not be in the best shape. I know he’s been training with Marshall Faulk, but he wouldn’t be the first athlete who trained privately and wasn’t 100 percent upon his return from a holdout. During the Week 4 preseason telecast, both Emmitt Smith and Michael Irvin agreed that it’s impossible to simulate practice reps, no matter how hard a player works out.

The Cowboys have other problems, anyhow. It’s unclear how center Travis Frederick will perform in his return from an auto-immune disease. Frederick took the field in the preseason, but will he play on a Pro Bowl level for an entire game against real competition? That’s a major question mark. The same goes for Amari Cooper and his foot. Cooper will play, but he’s dealing with a foot injury that could hinder him. Meanwhile, who is Dak Prescott going to lean on when it comes to third-down throws, now that Cole Beasley is gone?

NEW YORK OFFENSE: I’ve discussed public misconception frequently in my Week 1 picks thus far, and I think an aspect of the Giants’ offense could be another example of that. If you ask most football fans what they think of New York’s blocking, they’ll say that it sucks, based on what they’ve seen in previous seasons. However, the Giants acquired Kevin Zeitler, one of the top guards in the NFL, and right tackle Mike Remmers, who performed well under Pat Shurmur in Minnesota. Meanwhile, center Jon Halapio, a decent lineman, is returning from injury, while guard Will Hernandez figures to improve in his second season.

I like the Giants’ offensive line, and I think they should be able to keep Eli Manning from hitting the ground too many times in this game. Manning has endured some putrid blocking in recent years, so while he’s not nearly the quarterback he once was, he might be better than he was over the past couple of years because he’ll actually have time in the pocket.

Manning, of course, will lean on Saquon Barkley and Evan Engram. Both had great games versus the Cowboys last year, though one contest was a meaningless Week 17 affair in which Jason Garrett nonsensically used most of his starters. The Cowboys should have a better answer for Barkley and Engram, though both are extremely talented and will produce regardless.

RECAP: Let’s put this in the “TBA” category. I’d like to see what happens with Elliott. I hope that Elliott returns, so this spread rises to -7.5. I’d have lots of interest in New York +7.5, as the Cowboys are extremely overvalued by the public. My projected spread is Dallas -3.5, so I’m going to bet the Giants regardless, but it’s a matter of how many units this wager will be.

THURSDAY THOUGHTS: The juice on the -7 line moved in the wake of Ezekiel Elliott’s return, but you can’t find a +7.5 -110 anywhere yet. I guess Vegas doesn’t think Elliott’s contract should have been graded favorably either.

SATURDAY NOTES: Bovada has +7.5 -115 available, which is appealing. I’m going to hold out for a better number, but I could see the sharps coming in on the Giants.

SUNDAY MORNING NOTES: I’m really hoping the pre-game show hype gets this spread to rise to +7.5. I’m not seeing that line yet, but I’ll be patient.

FINAL THOUGHTS: Sharp action has prevented this spread from hitting +7.5. The best line I see is +7 +100 at FanDuel, of all places. I’m going to put a couple of units on the Giants.


The Motivation. Edge: None.
No edge found.


The Spread. Edge: Giants.

WalterFootball.com Calculated Spread: Cowboys -3.5.
Las Vegas Hilton Advance Point Spread: .
Computer Model: Cowboys -8.
DVOA Spread: Cowboys -7.


The Vegas. Edge: None.
Equal action.

Percentage of money on Dallas: 58% (20,000 bets)


The Trends. Edge: Giants.

History: Cowboys have won 9 of the last 12 meetings.

Eli Manning is 20-8 ATS as an underdog of 7 or more.

Opening Line: Cowboys -7.

Opening Total: 46.5.

Weather: Dome.

Week 1 NFL Pick: Cowboys 24, Giants 20
Giants +7 +100 (2 Units) – FanDuel — Incorrect; -$200
Under 44.5 (0 Units) — Incorrect; $0
Cowboys 35, Giants 17

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Pittsburgh Steelers (0-0) at New England Patriots (0-0)
Line: Patriots by 5.5. Total: 49.
Sunday, Sept. 8, 8:20 PM


The Matchup. Edge: None.

A reminder that Jerks of the Week for this week is up, so just click the link. This week’s jerks entry is the second entry of my trip to Las Vegas. In this entry, I introduce one of the biggest jerks I’ve ever met, some guy I called Mojito Bro.

NEW ENGLAND OFFENSE: It would be foolish to count out the Patriots, but they will not be as good as they were last year. They’re down two offensive linemen, as Trent Brown signed with the Raiders, while center David Andrews is injured. This is a huge deal, as a major reason why New England won the Super Bowl this past season was because Tom Brady had all the time in the world to throw in the playoffs. Despite battling great pass rushers like Joey Bosa, Melvin Ingram, Dee Ford, Justin Houston, Chris Jones, Aaron Donald and Ndamukong Suh, Brady was sacked just once in the playoffs, which was remarkable.

The diminished offensive line will face a huge test in the season opener. The Steelers have a great defensive front; not to mention T.J. Watt rushing on the edge. Unless the replacements for Brown and Andrews are unexpectedly prolific, I believe we’ll see Brady hit the ground on numerous occasions in this game.

Speaking of Brady, he has a tremendous record against the Steelers over the years, as he used to carve up Pittsburgh’s zone defense. The Steelers have made adjustments since, which would explain why they beat Brady last year and would have defeated him in 2017 had Jesse James not dropped the ball at the end of the game. The Steelers, now armed with a Ryan Shazier replacement in Devin Bush, figure to do well against Brady once again, especially now that Brady no longer has Rob Gronkowski at his disposal.

PITTSBURGH OFFENSE: The Steelers lost a couple of talented players as well on this side of the ball, but Le’Veon Bell didn’t even play last year, so his departure is irrelevant. Antonio Brown, on the other hand, will be missed, though improved team morale could make up for that.

Still, with Brown gone, it’ll allow Bill Belichick to focus on eliminating JuJu Smith-Schuster from the game plan. Belichick is the master of erasing one aspect of an opposing offense, so I imagine he’ll focus on the extremely talented Smith-Schuster. If so, Ben Roethlisberger will have to look elsewhere. Luckily for Roethlisberger, New England’s pass rush won’t be as potent this year with Trey Flowers gone. Roethlisberger is extremely well protected, anyhow.

Roethlisberger will have to carry the Steelers on his back, as the running game won’t work very well. New England still has the personnel to put the clamps on opposing ground attacks, so I wouldn’t expect much from James Conner.

RECAP: I’m going to bet on the Steelers, but the unit count depends on if we get a +6 at -110 juice. This spread is a touch too high at +5.5, as my projected line is New England -3.5. There’s not a huge difference between +3.5 and +5.5, but +6 is a different matter because six is the third-most important key number in the NFL.

It’s not a surprise in the slightest that the Patriots are overvalued, especially in this game. Most bettors are ignoring the losses New England has endured this offseason, while the Steelers, who are usually a public team, are largely going ignored because of the Browns hype. Pittsburgh is still one of the best teams in the NFL, and Roethlisberger is very live to throw a back-door covering score, though I’m not sure he’ll even need to.

THURSDAY THOUGHTS: Again, I’m going to need +6 to bet this game. I like that two of the projected spreads below believe the Patriots should be favored in the 3.5-4 range.

SATURDAY NOTES: Still no +6s despite some public action on the host. Let’s hope that changes! By the way, I was asked by several people, but Antonio Brown cannot play in this game. In fact, he can’t even stand on the sidelines, so I don’t think the Patriots will be distracted.

SUNDAY MORNING NOTES: No +6s yet, but that could definitely change before game time.

FINAL THOUGHTS: The public has pounded the Patriots late. Thus, it’s no surprise that a public book, Bovada, moved this line to +6 -115. I like that number for a couple of units.


The Motivation. Edge: Steelers.
With so much Browns hype, the Steelers are pissed that they’re being ignored for once. This could be a statement game for them.


The Spread. Edge: Steelers.

WalterFootball.com Calculated Spread: Patriots -3.5.
Las Vegas Hilton Advance Point Spread: .
Computer Model: Patriots -7.
DVOA Spread: Patriots -4.


The Vegas. Edge: Steelers.
Lots of late action on the host.

Percentage of money on New England: 68% (64,000 bets)


The Trends. Edge: Patriots.

Tom Brady is 235-73 as a starter (175-119 ATS).

Tom Brady is 19-11 ATS on Sunday Night Football.

Opening Line: Patriots -5.5.

Opening Total: 51.5.

Weather: Partly cloudy, 62 degrees. Light wind.

Week 1 NFL Pick: Steelers 26, Patriots 23
Steelers +6 -115 (2 Units) – Bovada — Incorrect; -$230
Under 49 (0 Units) — Correct; $0
Patriots 33, Steelers 3

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Houston Texans (0-0) at New Orleans Saints (0-0)
Line: Saints by 7. Total: 52.5.
Monday, Sept. 9, 7:10 PM


The Matchup. Edge: Saints.

I’m going to devote this section to promoting things from myself, my friends and my readers. For example, my cousin wrote a book, so I’ll get to promoting that once I read it (he just gave me a copy.) If you have anything you want me to promote, send it over, and if I like what I’ll see, I’ll promote your submission.

For the first week, I’d like to promote my own book! It’s about football, of course, and it’s coming soon. I just finished the final edits and just hired someone to design the cover, so it should be ready soon. Stay tuned for updates!

HOUSTON OFFENSE: Only Bill O’Brien would be incompetent enough to ruin both his team’s present and future. He sacrificed the present by trading Jadeveon Clowney for nothing, then mortgaged the future by surrendering two first-round picks for Laremy Tunsil. It’s like this guy is stupid enough to fire one of the best scouting departments in the NFL. Oh wait, what’s this!? O’Brien fired the entire scouting department a year-and-a-half ago because he wanted sole say in everything? Whoops!

The Texans surrendered way too much for Tunsil, but at least they have him. Tunsil will provide a big boost offensively; not because he’s a great left tackle, but because what the Texans had there previously was so much worse. Tunsil is a fine blocker, so he at least will give Deshaun Watson a chance to have ample time in the pocket to connect to his many talented receivers, which now include Will Fuller, who is coming off injury, and Kenny Stills, who was a throw-in in the Tunsil trade.

Considering the Saints have issues in their secondary – namely at cornerback across from Marshon Lattimore – Watson could have success attacking downfield. Watson will also be able to use Duke Johnson as a weapon out of the backfield. Johnson will need to function as a runner when he’s catching passes because Houston won’t be able to rush the ball at all because Carlos Hyde is terrible.

NEW ORLEANS OFFENSE: While the Texans gained a couple of offensive linemen this offseason, the Saints lost a crucial one, as Max Unger opted to retire. Second-round rookie Erik McCoy will take his place, so it remains to be seen how he’ll fare against a defense like Houston’s. It might be difficult for him to hold up against a stout interior, which features J.J. Watt. This is very crucial, as Drew Brees hates an interior pass rush more than an edge rush.

Brees, of course, can mitigate a fierce pass rush because he can rid of the ball very quickly. He’ll keep targeting Michael Thomas extensively, especially in this game, as the Texans don’t have the cornerback talent to keep Thomas in check.

Meanwhile, Alvin Kamara will continue to serve as a potent threat as both a runner and receiver out of the backfield. The Texans defend the middle of the field adequately, but Kamara is a special talent who should be able to put together a strong performance.

RECAP: Elite NFL teams tend to begin the year slowly. The Patriots, for instance, typically begin 2-2 each season. That would explain why the Saints are 1-11 against the spread in Weeks 1-2 since 2013. Last year, they lost to the Buccaneers at home and would have blown a game to the Browns had Cleveland’s kicker made a field goal.

This normally isn’t a big deal. Elite teams can bounce back from slow starts, as they know they shouldn’t peak in September. Thus, I don’t expect the Saints to play their best football against the Texans. Perhaps they’ll be more mindful of their sluggish starts, but they went 13-3 in 2018, so I don’t see why they would drastically change how they do things. Plus, the Saints battle the Rams next, so they could be looking ahead.

Of course, we also have to consider how the Texans begin the year. They’re 1-3 straight up and against the spread in Week 1 over the past four years under O’Brien, with their sole victory coming against the Jay Cutler-led Bears in 2016, which was one of Cutler’s worst seasons in Chicago.

I expect the Saints to begin slowly, but the Texans might to do the same thing. Regardless, this line seems a touch too high. I made it Houston +5.5, so we’re getting a win with the key number of six and a push with the key number of seven. That’s enough for me to put a unit or two on the visitor, and that’s without even factoring the Saints’ penchant for slow starts and the possibility that they could be looking ahead to the Rams.

THURSDAY THOUGHTS: Juice movement indicates that this line may move to +6.5, so I’m hoping I can find a +7 -110 somewhere. I’m thinking about locking in +7 -115, but I’ll be patient.

SATURDAY NOTES: I really like the Texans, and I’m going to lock in four units on them now because the sharps are taking them. The +7s are mostly gone, but +7 -120 is available at Bovada and BetUS. I’m also going to place half a unit on the moneyline. I don’t see why this game would be a blowout; Deshaun Watson has lost by more than seven points just once in his career, and that was an eight-point loss in one of his first few starts.

SUNDAY MORNING NOTES: I’m glad I locked this line in because the +7s are gone in large part, and I don’t think they’re going to come back because the sharps are on Houston.

FINAL THOUGHTS: I hope you locked this in at +7, even if it was at -120 because the best +7 number I see is at -125 juice at Bovada. It seems like the sharps are still favoring the Texans, and nothing has changed for me to dislike my four-unit wager on them.


The Motivation. Edge: Texans.
The Saints play the Rams next, so they could be looking past the Texans.


The Spread. Edge: Texans.

WalterFootball.com Calculated Spread: Saints -5.5.
Las Vegas Hilton Advance Point Spread: .
Computer Model: Saints -9.
DVOA Spread: Saints -5.


The Vegas. Edge: None.
Equal action.

Percentage of money on Houston: 59% (21,000 bets)


The Trends. Edge: None.

Saints are 44-36 ATS as a home favorite since 2007.

Saints are 17-6 ATS in night home games in the Drew Brees era.

Saints are 1-11 ATS in Weeks 1-2 since 2013.

Opening Line: Saints -7.

Opening Total: 53.

Weather: Dome.

Week 1 NFL Pick: Saints 24, Texans 23
Texans +7 -120 (4 Units) – BetUS/Bovada — Correct; +$400
Texans +240 (0.5 Units) – BetUS — Incorrect; -$50
Under 52.5 (0 Units) — Incorrect; $0
Saints 30, Texans 28

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Denver Broncos (0-0) at Oakland Raiders (0-0)
Line: Broncos by 2.5. Total: 42.5.
Sunday, Sept. 9, 10:20 PM


The Matchup. Edge: Broncos.

This week on ESPN, we’re going to have awful announcers calling the shots instead the great preseason homers like Kevin Reilly, Ron Wolfley and Don Tollefson, inept ESPN guys Emmitt, Herman Edwards, and aloof people like Dan Fouts and Jay Cutler. Here’s what it would sound like if these seven dudes (and some special guests) were calling this game:

Reilly: Welcome to another season of NFL action in a game between the Denver Broncos and the Oakland Athletics. Guys, there’s a lot of talk about the Raiders moving to Las Vegas, so there better not be any games there because mother won’t let me go because it’s the City of Sin. Maybe I’ll be able to go if someone signs my permission slip. What do you think, Emmitt?

Emmitt: Kevin, we gotta talk about the purple elephant in the room. The guy over there try to steal your toy last year, and you talkin’ about a permissive slips. It’s like you trying to go back to square zero.

Reilly: Emmitt, did you just call me by my real name!? I’m so honored! Ugh, it looks like the producers want me to introduce the new guy in the booth. You guys played for the same stupid team, Emmitt, so you might as well introduce him, friend.

Emmitt: Kevin, let me tell you something about this guy. He one of the bestest tight ends in the history of football. And not just the history of football, but this past couple of years, too. His name is Kevin.

Jason Witten: Hello, my name is Jason Witten and I just came out of retirement. My pick for this game is the Denver Broncos to win. I picked the Denver Broncos to win because they’re a real good football team. The Broncos pass real good. The Broncos run real good. And the Broncos play defense real good. You could say they’re real good overall. That’s four real goods for the Broncos, and that number is a perfect square. That’s because a square has four sides. If a square had five sides, the number five would be a perfect square.

Reilly: Great, another idiot in the booth. I’m sure I’ll try to kill you later, Jason Witten. And Emmitt, why did you refer to him as Kevin? Ah, never mind, you probably think everyone’s name is Kevin right now. Let’s go down to our sideline reporter, Kevin Hunt.

Kareem Hunt: Kevin, the cheerleaders down here are looking mighty fine, except for one who gave me a dirty look. I’ll make her pay the price!

Reilly: Thanks, Kevin. Now, Don, let’s talk about the defenses in this game. Whose defense is going to score me more fantasy points tonight in my $1 league?

Tollefson: Shut up, Kevin, no one cares about your stupid fantasy teams. Let’s talk about my fantasy. I want to kidnap all of those cheerleaders so they’ll cook and clean naked for me.

Reilly: Thanks, Tolly. Let’s go down to our second sideline reporter, new daddy Jay Cutler. Jay is down on the sideline this year because the producers said he kept falling asleep too much in the booth. Jay, who are you interviewing?

Cutler: Didn’t feel like interviewing anyone, Billy. Back to you.

Reilly: My name’s Kevin, new daddy! Kevin!

Fouts: And here’s what he means by new daddy. There’s a daddy, and he’s new, so he’s a new daddy. If he was a daddy who was old, he would be an old daddy. But because he’s a daddy who’s new, and not a daddy who’s old, he’s a new daddy instead of an old daddy.

Wolfley: DAN, I HAVE BOTH A NEW DADDY AND AN OLD DADDY. MY NEW DADDY IS A PENCIL ERASER WITH TINFOIL EARRINGS AND MY OLD DADDY IS A TALKING SQUIRREL WITH SAUCE ON THE BOYS.

Reilly: Sounds like your new daddy sucks compared to mine! Let’s go down to our third sideline reporter, Herm Edwards. Herm, what do you see down there?

Herm: I-

Reilly: No one cares, idiot! Now, I guess that’s it for everyone, so let’s move on and get to a commerc-

Charles Davis: Kevin, looks like you forgot about me, Kevin. I’m still here, Kevin, and I’m sorry for trying to steal your Nick Foles bobbleheads, Kevin. You mentioned the verb move, Kevin, so let’s discuss moving, Kevin. There are lots of forms of moving, Kevin. You can walk as you move, Kevin. You can run as you move, Kevin. How about jogging as you move, Kevin? What about walking backward as you move, Kevin? Let’s not forget about driving, Kevin. How about flying, Kevin? That’s moving, Kevin. What about sailing, Kevin? How about we ask you, Kevin? Can you name another form of movement, Kevin? If you do, Kevin, it’ll be a $5,000 prize, Kevin!

Reilly: A $5,000 prize? Wow. OK, let’s see-

Charles Davis: Sorry, Kevin, but a $5,000 prize is not a form of movement, Kevin. Looks like you lost, Kevin. You’re a big loser, Kevin. Better luck next time, Kevin.

Reilly: You’ll pay for tricking me, Charles Davis! I’ll plot your death throughout the week, especially when I’m rubbing mother’s feet! We’ll be back after this!

DENVER OFFENSE: The Raiders were able to be competitive in the first halves of many games last year, as they often played with great energy under Jon Gruden. Unfortunately for them, they wilted way too often in the second half. Their defensive depth was sorely lacking, and they possessed no signs of a pass rush, which exhausted the defense late in games. It remains to be seen if their pass rush will be better in 2019, but the early returns are not promising.

The Raiders reached at No. 4 overall on Clemson defensive end Clelin Ferrell. It wouldn’t be surprising if Ferrell ends up having a solid career, but the Raiders could have traded down and still obtained him. However, Ferrell hasn’t been impressive in training camp or the preseason. Fourth-round rookie Maxx Crosby was better, but he broke his hand and may not be ready for this game.

Joe Flacco should have plenty of time to throw in this affair. His receiving corps, which features a surprisingly healthy Emmanuel Sanders, doesn’t have the best matchup against a secondary that made two safety upgrades in Johnathan Abram and Lamarcus Joyner, but Flacco should be able to attack the middle of the field. The Raiders have one of the worst linebacking corps in the NFL, so they’ll have trouble defending Phillip Lindsay and Noah Fant.

OAKLAND OFFENSE: The Raiders had two major issues on this side of the ball last year. One was the receiving corps, which was devoid of talent following the Amari Cooper trade, and the other was the offensive line, which blocked horribly. Oakland brought in some players to remedy these areas. They signed Trent Brown away from the Patriots to plug the hole at right tackle, and they also acquired Antonio Brown and Tyrell Williams to give Derek Carr potent downfield options to throw to. Carr’s favorite target from last year, Jared Cook, is gone, but tight end Darren Waller was one of the MVPs of training camp, so he should have a strong 2019 debut because the Broncos don’t have a great inside linebacking corps.

However, the Raiders still have issues on the offensive line. Trent Brown and center Rodney Hudson are great, but the other three spots are sketchy. Perhaps 2018 first-rounder Kolton Miller will perform well now that he’s healthy and has some experience, but the matchup against Bradley Chubb could prove to be too daunting. Don’t forget about Von Miller; I like Trent Brown, but Miller is the better player.

Carr won’t have much time to throw, so he’ll have to lean on Josh Jacobs to run well. The rookie rusher could thrive in his NFL debut, as Denver struggled to stop ground attacks in 2018. I’m sure new head coach Vic Fangio has a plan to fix that, but it’s hard to imagine that changing so soon.

RECAP: This is one of the tougher games to predict in Week 1. I’ve gone back and forth on it, and I can’t find any edges either way. Part of me wonders if the Raiders will have an emotional outburst in a late Monday night game, as they typically do, but the Broncos could be out for revenge after losing in those circumstances on Monday Night Football last year. Meanwhile, my calculated spread and the computer model have similar projected numbers as the real line, and the public isn’t heavily backing one side.

I’m going to side with the Broncos. I just think they’re the better team. In fact, it wouldn’t surprise me at all if they made a deep run into the playoffs, provided Flacco stays healthy. That’s a major ask, given his injury history, but if he can avoid getting hurt, the Broncos will be very competitive with the top teams in the league in 2019. I can’t say the same thing about the Raiders.

THURSDAY THOUGHTS: My initial thought regarding the Antonio Brown impending suspension was that I wasn’t going to bet this game because I didn’t love this spot for Denver, but I’ve reconsidered that stance. I think the Raiders could be distracted by all of this, and losing a key member of a team in the middle of the week could really hinder them. I’m going to put two units on the Broncos and locked that in before this spread gets to -3.

SATURDAY NOTES: Antonio Brown has been released. There’s some major money heading in Denver’s direction now, but as long as this line remains under -3, I like the Broncos.

SUNDAY MORNING NOTES: The betting percentage continues to increase on the Broncos, which is not a surprise.

FINAL THOUGHTS: This spread has risen to -3. I don’t like Denver as much at that number. I’d consider a unit, but that’s it. Actually, I wish I would have made this wager a unit because there’s so much action coming in on Denver.


The Motivation. Edge: None.
No edge found.


The Spread. Edge: None.

WalterFootball.com Calculated Spread: Broncos -1.5.
Las Vegas Hilton Advance Point Spread: .
Computer Model: Broncos -2.
DVOA Spread: Raiders -4.


The Vegas. Edge: Raiders.
The public is pounding the Broncos in the wake of the Antonio Brown release.

Percentage of money on Denver: 71% (12,000 bets)


The Trends. Edge: None.

Opening Line: Raiders -3.

Opening Total: 44.

Weather: Clear, 64 degrees. Mild wind, 11 mph.

Week 1 NFL Pick: Broncos 27, Raiders 20
Broncos -2.5 (2 Units) – BetUS — Incorrect; -$220
Over 42.5 (0 Units) — Incorrect; $0
Raiders 24, Broncos 16

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week 1 NFL Picks – Early Games
Indianapolis Colts at Los Angeles Chargers, Cincinnati Bengals at Seattle Seahawks, New York Giants at Dallas Cowboys, Detroit Lions at Arizona Cardinals, San Francisco 49ers at Tampa Bay Buccaneers, Pittsburgh Steelers at New England Patriots, Houston Texans at New Orleans Saints, Denver Broncos at Oakland Raiders,




Prop/Teaser/Parlay Picks
A list of some of my favorite team/player prop picks this week
(Offense & defensive ROY picks to be counted whenever winners are announced.) Picks carried over on a week-to-week basis will be in black.

Prop/teaser/parlay picks posted in Week 1 NFL Picks – Early Games



NFL Picks - Nov. 20


2025 NFL Mock Draft - Nov. 20


NFL Power Rankings - Nov. 19


Fantasy Football Rankings - Sept. 4




SUB MENU






My Team-by-Team ATS Record
This section shows how well I do when picking each team this year. The purpose is to see how well I read each team. Pushes are not displayed. Winning/losing streak in parentheses.

Cowboys: 6-3	Bears: 5-5	Bucs: 6-4	49ers: 6-4
Eagles: 5-5	Lions: 9-1	Falcons: 6-5	Cardinals: 8-2
Giants: 3-6	Packers: 6-3	Panthers: 4-6	Rams: 5-5
Redskins: 5-5	Vikings: 4-6	Saints: 5-6	Seahawks: 6-3
Bills: 4-7	Bengals: 2-9	Colts: 6-5	Broncos: 7-4
Dolphins: 4-6	Browns: 3-7	Jaguars: 3-7	Chargers: 6-3
Jets: 6-5	Ravens: 5-5	Texans: 5-6	Chiefs: 4-5
Patriots: 6-3	Steelers: 4-6	Titans: 6-3	Raiders: 5-5
Divisional: 21-23 (2011-23: 608-561)	2x Game Edge: 18-14 (2011-23: 401-387)	2x Motivation Edge: 31-25 (2011-23: 510-441)	2x Spread Edge: 21-30 (2011-23: 239-211)
2x Vegas Edge: 33-47 (2011-23: 448-446)	2x Trend Edge: 12-8 (2011-23: 321-293)	Double Edge: 13-16 (2011-23: 207-185)	Triple Edge: 4-8 (2011-23: 33-37)