NFL Picks Against the Spread: Week 1, 2019

Green Bay Packers (0-0) at Chicago Bears (0-0)
Line: Bears by 3. Total: 46.5.
Thursday, Sept. 5, 8:20 PM


The Matchup. Edge: Packers.

This is my 20th year running the site. The official anniversary is on Nov. 3. Twenty years ago on that date, I set up my Web site in Mr. Rosen’s Internet class during the senior year at Central High School. Mr. Rosen told us to make a Web site about something we liked, and I loved football. Thus, my site was born on the URL http://centralhigh.net/~wcherep/fotball.html

This is what it looked like back then:



If you’re wondering why I have a gif of Brett Favre throwing the ball to Robert Brooks, it’s because we were required to have a gif on the home page. Meanwhile, you may have noticed that the menu items aren’t showing up. That’s because they were all clunky .jpgs!

OK, so my site doesn’t look that much more advanced today, but at least it’s still not this bad! Back in 1999, the only things on http://centralhigh.net/~wcherep/fotball.html were a picks page, power rankings and links to NFL.com.

We’ve grown exponentially, but the picks page still exists. And I can’t wait to get started this year. I think this season is going to be amazing. I’ve learned so much since the 2018 NFL season ended when I was handicapping the NBA. If you didn’t see how the NBA Picks fared, they were tremendous. I applied a four-pronged approach to handicapping basketball, and I was up about 50 units in the regular season as a result (the playoffs were a different animal, and I didn’t account for that.) I applied the same approach to the 2018 NFL season, and the results were very promising.

If you’re curious about the four-pronged approach, it’s handicapping each game on four axes:

1. Matchup – This doesn’t need much explaining. How do the teams match up with one another? Does one team have a fundamental advantage? Is one team going to be hindered by too many injuries in one area to be competitive?

2. Motivation – Will a team be looking ahead? Will it take its opponent lightly? Is this a revenge game? Sometimes, teams lack motivation, and it’s important to determine when that will be.

3. Spread – Is the spread correct, or is it way off? For this, I’ll be looking at my numbers, as well as a computer model and DVOA. Using the DVOA rankings, I can determine what the DVOA spread will be, and I’ll share that with you for every game.

4. Vegas – Another obvious one. Where is the action going? Is the money flooding to one side? This is significant as well.

You may have noticed that the layout of the picks page is a bit different, and that was done to accommodate for how I will be handicapping the NFL – and all sports for that matter – going forward. Football is already off to a good start – I was 5-0 with my College Football Picks last week – and yet I only used two of the four axes (spread, Vegas) when making those selections. I wasn’t confident in them because the matchup and motivation aspects couldn’t be factored in, due to limited knowledge of incoming recruits and psychological factors of all 100-plus teams, but I know the NFL much better than college football, so I’m very excited that the season has begun!

GREEN BAY OFFENSE: The Packers were nearly swept by the Bears last year, but things will likely change for a few reasons. Primarily, Aaron Rodgers’ health needs to be considered. Rodgers suffered a knee injury in the second quarter of the first meeting in 2018, and though he led a furious comeback in the second half, he was never quite himself. Rodgers has enjoyed an entire offseason to heal and is now 100 percent. He’ll be better than the quarterback who was 25-of-42 for 274 yards and an interception in Chicago in December.

It must be noted that Rodgers has an easier matchup this time. Chicago’s defense is still great, but the team lost a couple of key members this offseason. Safety Adrian Amos, a Pro Bowl-caliber player, is now on Green Bay. Stellar slot cornerback Bryce Callahan departed for Denver, so this is an area Rodgers will be able to exploit with Geronimo Allison going against the incompetent Buster Skrine. Also, defensive coordinator Vic Fangio is now with the Broncos as well. I like replacement Chuck Pagano, but the players will be learning a new system under Pagano, so the defense may not be up to par right away.

And speaking of coaching changes, the Packers have one of their own with Matt LaFleur replacing the inept Mike McCarthy. We don’t know how LaFleur will fare, but he has vowed to bring Green Bay’s offense into the 21st century. The Bears have zero film on what the Packers will do in the opener, which is an advantage to the visitor.

CHICAGO OFFENSE: The advantages the Packers have don’t end on the offensive side of the ball. I asked Kenny on our podcast, “Who has the better defense in the season opener?” It’s probably Chicago, but I’m not quite sure because Green Bay figures to have a stellar defense as well.

The Packers added a couple of talented edge rushers this offseason, acquiring Za’Darius Smith and Preston Smith. The team also had two first-round picks, one of which was used on Darnell Savage, a very skilled safety. Savage looked stellar in the preseason, so he and Amos will aid a secondary that features some young cornerbacks who also figure to be better with experience. If Joshua Jackson takes the next step, Green Bay might have the best secondary in the NFL.

It’s not like the Bears have an elite defense, anyway, so I like the Packers to limit Chicago. Mitchell Trubisky is very well protected, but he tends to throw off his back foot frequently in big games. Perhaps that’ll change this year, but I have to see it to believe it. Meanwhile, the Packers have a strong defensive line to limit David Montgomery, and Jaire Alexander should be able to put the clamps on Allen Robinson. Tarik Cohen could break a big gain or two, but Savage and Amos will be there to prevent that from happening too often.

RECAP: I love both of these teams this year, but as long as Rodgers is healthy, I rate the Packers a bit better than the Bears. I made this spread Chicago -2. One point isn’t exactly a steal, but we’re getting the key number of three by taking Green Bay, which is significant.

I’m going to bet the Packers for at least a few units. There aren’t any distinct edges in favor of Green Bay outside of the spread being off as of right now – check back later in the week for updates – but any time you can get a healthy Rodgers for a field goal or more, you almost have to make the wager.

WEDNESDAY UPDATE: Facebook friend Tarta J. just notified me that Packers 7.5 100 is available on FanDuel’s sportsbook. I couldn’t believe it, but it’s true. I’ve included a screenshot if you don’t believe me:



This is under the “Oddsboost” section. The catch is that the max bet is $25, but hey, it’s better than nothing! I placed a $25 wager on Green Bay 7.5 100, so I’ll denote that in the overall winnings for the week.

THURSDAY THOUGHTS: Not much since yesterday evening when I found a very weird line on FanDuel’s sportsbook. I’ll have final thoughts 20-30 minutes prior to kickoff, though if a 3.5 appears, I’ll notify you with a locked-in pick.

Atlanta Falcons (0-0) at Minnesota Vikings (0-0)
Line: Vikings by 3.5. Total: 47.
Sunday, Sept. 8, 1:00 PM


The Matchup. Edge: Vikings.

My overrated-underrated feature was posted in this spot the past couple of years. I thought it would be better if there was less clutter on this page, so I set up a new NFL Overrated and Underrated Teams page that will be updated every Monday. I have three overrated and underrated teams listed there, and some may shock you!

ATLANTA OFFENSE: I liked the Falcons heading into the offseason, as I believed they could rebound if they were much healthier this year. Atlanta suffered an absurd number of injuries in 2018, so the team is bound to improve this season.

However, what I saw in the preseason had me concerned. The Falcons couldn’t pass protect whatsoever. One would think it would partly be first-round guard Chris Lindstrom’s fault, but everyone else was to blame. It was horrible. Atlanta couldn’t even keep Matt Ryan upright against backup defenses. At one point, I thought head coach Dan Quinn was trying to sabotage the season by keeping Ryan on the field in a meaningless game for so long, given that Ryan was taking countless brutal hits. But the question remains: If the Falcons couldn’t protect Ryan from backup defensive linemen, how are they going to deal with Minnesota’s stellar front? Danielle Hunter, in particular, will have a field day against Atlanta’s horrible right tackle.

Granted, Julio Jones wasn’t on the field in the preseason, but the Vikings have Xavier Rhodes to slow him down a little bit. Meanwhile, the Vikings figure to be able to limit Devonta Freeman on the ground. I like Freeman to make some big plays as a receiver because Minnesota can’t cover in space, but the Falcons won’t be able to run the ball very well.

MINNESOTA OFFENSE: Speaking of inept offensive lines, the Vikings weren’t able to protect Kirk Cousins last year. They used a first-round pick on center Garrett Bradbury. He’ll help, but I don’t know if he’ll be enough. The Vikings still have major holes at right tackle and both guard spots, while left tackle Riley Reiff isn’t anything special.

However, if the Vikings can block well in one game this year, it’ll be against Atlanta. The Falcons, for whatever reason, refuse to upgrade their defensive line, offseason after offseason. They have a pair of failed edge rushers in Vic Beasley and Takk McKinley, and I have no faith in their ability to put heat on Cousins. Defensive tackle Grady Jarrett is a stud, but that’s about it.

The Vikings should be able to push the Falcons around in the trenches to open things up for Dalvin Cook. The oft-injured runner will likely get hurt at some point in 2019, but his presence will provide a huge boost at the moment. Meanwhile, I don’t think new starting cornerback Isaiah Oliver is ready to cover one of Adam Thielen or Stefon Diggs. Whoever is matched up against him will have a big game.

RECAP: This is a difficult game to handicap, so I probably won’t have any action on it. I like the Vikings’ edge in this matchup, and you can’t ignore that Mike Zimmer has had extra time to prepare for this matchup. Zimmer is 10-4 against the spread with extra time. Also, the public is betting the Falcons, which is another advantage in Minnesota’s favor.

So, why am I not loading up on the Vikings? Two things: First, Minnesota has to play Green Bay next week, so that could be a bit of a distraction. Second, this spread is worrying because Ryan seems like he’s very live to throw a back-door score at the end of the game. I’d love Minnesota at -3, but the -4 seems like it’s at high risk to get back doored by one of the better quarterbacks in the NFL. I really don’t feel like sweating that out, so I’ll pass on wagering on this contest.

THURSDAY THOUGHTS/PICK CHANGE: I’m going to change my pick. There’s not much public money on the Falcons, and all of the projected lines in the spread section say this should be Minnesota -3, so this number is a touch too high.

SATURDAY NOTES: Stefon Diggs is questionable, which makes me feel better about the pick change. I still have no interest in betting this contest.

Washington Redskins (0-0) at Philadelphia Eagles (0-0)
Line: Eagles by 10. Total: 44.5.
Sunday, Sept. 8, 1:00 PM


The Matchup. Edge: Eagles.

VEGAS UPDATE: I’ll be posting how the Vegas sportsbooks have done the previous week in this spot. The highest-bet sides were 38-44-3 last season, a year that was pretty painful for the books. Perhaps the pendulum will swing the other way…

Here are the teams getting the most bets this week:

Ravens -6.5

Chiefs -3.5

Rams -3

Lions -2.5

Browns -5.5

Chargers -7

It should come as no surprise that the four highest-bet teams in Week 1 are all road favorites. It’s like the public refuses to learn from its mistakes. No wonder the sportsbooks make so much money almost every year.

WASHINGTON OFFENSE: I have a question: How are the Redskins going to block in this game? The team is missing its best player, left tackle Trent Williams, due to a holdout of sorts. Washington will be starting 80-year-old Donald Penn on the blind side, right next to failed tackle Ereck Flowers, who is making the move to guard. The Redskins also have a below-average center, so with all that in mind, you have to believe that Philadelphia’s stellar defensive line will overwhelm the Redskins.

If Case Keenum has no time in the pocket, how is he going to complete many passes? And who is he going to throw to, exactly? Washington has the worst receiving corps in the NFL, and it doesn’t sound as though Jordan Reed will be able to play because of a concussion. With Jamison Crowder gone, the Redskins’ top receiver is rookie Terry McLaurin. I like McLaurin just fine, but he has no experience, and he’s not a No. 1 in this league.

The one thing the Redskins will be able to do well offensively in some games this year is run the ball with Derrius Guice and Adrian Peterson. However, the Eagles figure to have one of the best rush-stopping defenses in the league, so they have an immense edge on this side of the ball.

PHILADELPHIA OFFENSE: The Redskins’ defense will need to put together a performance of a lifetime to keep this game close, given the sad state of their offense. I like Washington’s stop unit, especially its defensive line. The Redskins will be able to be competitive in some contests this year, despite their poor offense, solely because of their awesome defensive front.

However, I don’t see that being the case in this game. The Eagles have a great offensive line that will be able to neutralize the Redskins up front. This will allow Carson Wentz to dissect the Redskins’ secondary and linebacking corps. Washington has abysmal linebackers that won’t be able to cover Philadelphia’s elite tight ends and pass-catching running backs. Meanwhile, Josh Norman isn’t the same player he once was, so Wentz will be able to attack downfield successfully.

I especially like DeSean Jackson’s chances. Jackson gives the Eagles an element they haven’t possessed yet with Wentz. I think Jackson will have a big year, as Wentz will be the best quarterback he’s ever been paired with. Going against his former team will provide some added motivation.

RECAP: This spread is high, but one could argue that it’s not high enough. I made this line Philadelphia -11. Ten isn’t exactly the greatest key number, but enough games fall on that margin that being able to go through it is somewhat substantial.

I like the Eagles for a few units. The Redskins do one thing well offensively, and Philadelphia can take that away without compromising anything else. Meanwhile, Washington has some major liabilities on both sides of the ball that the Eagles figure to exploit very easily. It’s also worth noting that Doug Pederson, one of the best coaches in the NFL, is 11-6 against the spread with extra time to prepare. He’s won and covered all three of his Week 1 games as head coach of the Eagles, and I expect him to be 4-for-4 by the time this contest is over.

THURSDAY THOUGHTS: I have nothing new to say about this game. I like the Eagles as a medium-sized play, though anything above -10 would be less appealing. I actually don’t want to risk the line moving up to -10.5, so I’m going to lock in -10 -105 right now, which is available at both Bookmaker and BetUS.

SATURDAY NOTES: I’m glad I locked in -10 -105 because this number has moved to -10 -115 or -10.5 -105 in most sportsbooks. I don’t see the Redskins being able to compete with the Eagles with Trent Williams out.

Buffalo Bills (0-0) at New York Jets (0-0)
Line: Jets by 2.5. Total: 41.
Sunday, Sept. 8, 1:00 PM


The Matchup. Edge: Jets.

HATE MAIL: I will be posting hate mail here. Here’s some hate mail from last year:



Why, thank you! I never thought someone would be so kind to me following an eight-unit loss.

Here’s someone who wasn’t as kind:



I wrote this before, and I’ll say it again: Don’t post something on the Internet that can be easily disproven via a quick search.

Here’s something I didn’t even have to reply to:



Again, this is another instance where a quick search can quickly prove someone wrong. The sharps took it up the a** in Week 19, as they bet heavily on the Colts and Chargers. Remember, even the best bettors in the world hit only 57 percent or so of their picks, so an 0-2 result shouldn’t be too much of a surprise.

A few more…



That’s so cool that this guy gets it. I had the right side for sure!

OK, yeah, obviously not. But this is another instance of someone not doing their research. This is a PSA: People, don’t be stupid and lazy. If you post something on the Internet, do your research first so you don’t look like a jacka**!

This is pure genius:



I have no snarky response to that even though I’ve never said I’m a sharp. I hope to be a sharp one day, but I have much to learn. One thing I will never be, however, is a terrific poet like this man.

While I aspire to be a sharp handicapper one day, I can safely say that as with poetry, I’ll never master the art of sharp coin-flip predicting.

NEW YORK OFFENSE: I love the Jets this year. I bet them to win the Super Bowl at 95/1 odds, and I have a wager on Sam Darnold to win MVP at 100/1. Both may sound like long shots, especially the latter, but I must remind you that Patrick Mahomes was also 100/1 to win MVP last summer. I expect big things out of the Jets, thanks to Darnold’s expected improvement and all of the upgrades they’ve made to both sides of the ball – as well as the coaching staff – this offseason.

This, however, will be a difficult matchup for Darnold. The Bills have one of the best defenses in the NFL, so they’ll be able to limit the Jets’ offense. They already boasted one of the premier stop units in the NFL, and yet several foolish teams allowed them to land Ed Oliver in the 2019 NFL Draft. Oliver has immense potential and figures to cause havoc in most games this season. The Jets’ decision to acquire guard Kelechi Osemele and center Ryan Kalil could pay off almost instantly in this contest.

Still, Darnold won’t have much time in the pocket, while Le’Veon Bell won’t find many rushing lanes to burst through. Robby Anderson will also be smothered by one of Buffalo’s talented cornerbacks. The one edge I can find for the Jets on this side of the ball is Bell as a receiver against the linebacking corps. Tremaine Edmunds struggled in coverage last year, so perhaps Adam Gase will be able to exploit that matchup.

BUFFALO OFFENSE: While the Bills’ defense will be able to win their matchups for the most part in this game, the same can’t be said of the scoring unit. Like the Bills, the Jets were able to add a supreme talent in the 2019 NFL Draft when they selected Quinnen Williams third overall.

Quinnen and Leonard Williams will help form one of the best defensive lines in the NFL. They’ll have a major advantage in this contest, as the Bills have some holes on their blocking unit. I like their addition of center Mitch Morse, but their two guard spots figure to be problematic this year, especially in this game.

Given how great the Jets’ defensive line is, it’ll be difficult for Devin Singletary to find much rushing room, meaning Josh Allen will constantly be in third-and-long situations. Allen will have to use his legs to pick up chunks of yards because the deep ball won’t be there for him in this game. The Jets have a great safety tandem in Jamal Adams and Marcus Maye to limit Allen’s shots to John Brown and the other receivers.

RECAP: Both my calculation and the computer model say this spread is off. My number is New York -4.5, while the computer says it should be -5. Yet, the Jets are favored by a field goal. Getting four and a push through three is a big deal.

With that in mind, I like the Jets for a couple of units. These teams are mirror images of each other, except the Jets have a far superior backfield. I like Allen just fine, but he still has a lot of work to do to become a good passer. Darnold is already there, and he could be seen as a great quarterback by the end of the year.

THURSDAY THOUGHTS: My spread, the computer model and the DVOA line all believe this spread should be higher than -3. This spread is dropping though, so we might be able to get a -2.5 -110 at some point.

SATURDAY NOTES: Still no -2.5 -110, but I’ll be more than happy to take -2.5 -115 over an overpriced -3. I’ll have an update Sunday morning, as usual.

Baltimore Ravens (0-0) at Miami Dolphins (0-0)
Line: Ravens by 7. Total: 40.5.
Sunday, Sept. 8, 1:00 PM


The Matchup. Edge: Ravens.

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BALTIMORE OFFENSE: The Ravens are severely overrated this year for numerous reasons. One is Lamar Jackson’s expected regression. Jackson reminds me of Vince Young, who had a Pro Bowl rookie campaign, but declined once opposing coaches figured him out. It all ended for Young in a playoff loss to the Chargers, and Jackson suffered the same fate in January. Jackson will still be electrifying as a runner, but I don’t think he has the capacity to improve as a passer, and we saw no signs of his throwing ability being upgraded in the preseason. Perhaps an elite quarterbacks coach or offensive coordinator would help Jackson along, but the Ravens have neither.

I don’t see Jackson having a big performance as a passer in this matchup. His receivers were already lacking, and the one strength of the Dolphins is their secondary. Xavien Howard will take away half the field, while slot corner Minkah Fitzpatrick and safety Reshad Jones will limit other options.

With that in mind, the Ravens will need to lean heavily on their ground attack, which was the plan in the first place. Jackson will surely pick up chunks of yardage on the ground at times, but I’m not sure I can say the same thing about Mark Ingram. While the Dolphins can’t put pressure on the quarterback whatsoever, they should at least be capable at stopping the run, thanks in part to first-round rookie defensive tackle Christian Wilkins.

MIAMI OFFENSE: Another reason the Ravens are greatly overrated is their defense. They lost their top two pass rushers this offseason, including their team leader, Terrell Suggs. Their best linebacker, C.J. Mosley, is also gone. The other aspects of their defense will regress without Suggs, Mosley and Za’Darius Smith.

And yet, it won’t matter in this game because Miami’s offense is a joke. The Dolphins traded away left tackle Laremy Tunsil and lost right tackle Ja’Wuan James in free agency this offseason, leaving them with zero viable starting offensive linemen. I don’t see how they’re going to block anyone this season, including the worsened Baltimore pass rush.

Making matters worse, the Dolphins are starting Ryan Fitzpatrick. The bearded quarterback had some strong performances for the Buccaneers last year, but don’t forget that Fitzpatrick had Mike Evans, Chris Godwin, Adam Humphries, O.J. Howard and Cameron Brate at his disposal in Tampa. The Dolphins have no one resembling that on their offense. Their best receiver is someone named Preston Williams, while their running back is Kalen Ballage, who possesses zero positive running traits outside of his athleticism.

RECAP: Believe it or not, but I planned on wagering a few units on the Dolphins prior to this past weekend. This spread is too high – I made it Baltimore -3.5 – and the public is pounding the visitor. Plus, it’s going to be 100 degrees and humid in Miami. The Ravens are going to wilt in their dark jerseys.

However, there are two major factors that are preventing me from betting Miami. The first is the Tunsil trade. There was a report that the Dolphin players planned to revolt if their team dealt Tunsil. I hate to believe the media and their fake news, but there’s a chance this could be legitimate. The second is the hurricane. With the hurricane bound to hit Miami soon, the players could be distracted. How can they possibly focus on football when they have to worry about their homes and family being safe?

In the end, I’m not betting this game. I’m sticking with my gut instinct and taking the Dolphins, but I won’t be placing a wager on them.

THURSDAY THOUGHTS: Hurricane Dorian has passed, so I don’t believe it’ll have an impact on this game. I don’t want to bet on the Dolphins, but I will pick them to cover for office pool purposes. If you want to bet Miami, 7 is still available at Bovada.

SATURDAY NOTES: Believe it or not, but there’s some sharp money on Miami 7. On my picks podcast with Jacob Camenker, I asked anyone to send me an e-mail with a virus in it if I say I’m going to bet on the Dolphins. I’m not going to be tempted by sharp action as a result because I don’t want a virus e-mail.

Kansas City Chiefs (0-0) at Jacksonville Jaguars (0-0)
Line: Chiefs by 3.5. Total: 50.5.
Sunday, Sept. 8, 1:00 PM


The Matchup. Edge: None.

I wouldn’t say my weekly random NFL notes cluttered these picks pages, so I’ll keep them here. What I’m also going to do is store all of them in a Random NFL Notes section so that you can go back and read previous entries in the future.

Some random NFL notes I can’t put anywhere else:

1. Football is back, and I’m excited. Some people aren’t, however. I’d like to point you to this tweet from the Athletic. Check it out, and look at the responses.

I can’t believe there are so many people who are disgusted with football. What’s most surprising is that there are a variety of reasons why. It seems as though some people are upset about Colin Kaepernick kneeling, while others don’t like that Kaepernick was apparently blackballed by the NFL. Some have complained about Jay-Z’s bizarre involvement, which I still don’t understand, by the way. Jay-Z’s rap lyrics have never been on beat with the rhythm of his songs, so I was hoping he’d figure that out before doing anything with professional football.

Nevertheless, it sucks that there are so many people out there who don’t like football now. I’d normally make fun of these losers, but there seems to be a growing resentment for a multitude of reasons. It’s scary, but I hope the NFL figures out how to avoid more PR disasters that alienate more fans from the game.

2. Football is not back for everyone, unfortunately. I’m referring to Andrew Luck, who announced his retirement.

It sucks that Luck had to give up football. It looked like he turned the corner, health-wise, last year, and so I liked the Colts to win the Super Bowl. Luck’s retirement obviously changes that.

Much was made about the fan reaction to Luck. Some Colts fans booed Luck, and this was widely panned by the media. Countless NFL players, both current and past, came out to defend Luck. They criticized the angry fans by reminding them that Luck is a human being, and that it wasn’t nice to react negatively to his retirement.

While I can understand why Luck is retiring, I also disagree with these players bashing the fans. I don’t like to criticize people for emotional reactions in the heat of the moment. The fans who booed him were likely season-ticket holders who paid lots of money to see their team play. They were pissed that Luck opted to retire, ruining Indianapolis’ Super Bowl aspirations in 2019 so close to the season. They got mad without having time to think about the bigger picture. It was a natural response.

I’m sure some of the Colts fans who did this may regret it now. Some might still be angry. But I don’t see why they should be criticized for reacting emotionally. It was their gut instinct to boo, and I’m sure if the players who defended Luck were ordinary people who saved up for expensive Colts tickets, they would have reacted similarly.

3. On a lighter note, Emmitt Smith was on TV! Emmitt made a guest appearance as the Cowboys’ color analyst in the preseason finale. I was worried that Emmitt improved his grammar, but I was not disappointed from what I heard. I wrote down every gaffe Emmitt made. Here were the best of the best:

“When you watch mediocrisy, it is very disappointing.”

“You have to have the mindset that we’re back to square zero!”

“The linebacker get caught up inside. He did not do what Rob Melonelli been teaching these guys.”

The best part about the latter quote was when Emmitt stumbled through “Rob Melonelli,” Michael Irvin, who was also on the broadcast, quickly corrected him by just saying, “Rod,” completely ignoring the “Melonelli” part.

KANSAS CITY OFFENSE: I was in Las Vegas when the NFL announced that Tyreek Hill wouldn’t serve any sort of suspension. This spread, which was Kansas City -3.5 at the time, quickly rose to -4.5 and -5 in some sportsbooks. I thought there was a chance that the line could hit -6, but a curious thing happened. The spread went back down to -3.5, as lots of sharp action began betting Jacksonville.

Hill doesn’t exactly have the greatest matchup in this game, as he’ll be battling Jalen Ramsey, one of the better cornerbacks in the NFL. Meanwhile, Travis Kelce and Sammy Watkins also will be going up against talented defenders. It’ll be difficult for Patrick Mahomes to find open players in this game.

Mahomes will have other problems as well, namely the pass protection. The Jaguars figure to have one of the best pass rushes in the NFL with Josh Allen joining the front seven. Kansas City doesn’t have the best offensive line, as we witnessed in the AFC Championship, and it doesn’t seem as though the Chiefs will be able to run the ball all that well either.

JACKSONVILLE OFFENSE: I don’t see Nick Foles having much time in the pocket either. The Jaguars are starting Jawaan Taylor, a second-round rookie at right tackle, which will be problematic with Frank Clark on the other side. Chris Jones and Alex Okafor will also present issues elsewhere on the defensive line.

Foles also has another problem, which is that he has just one viable receiver at his disposal. That would be Dede Westbrook, who could catch 100 passes this year. Westbrook, however, has a tough matchup to open the season versus slot cornerback Kendall Fuller. Tyrann Mathieu is also in Kansas City’s secondary, and I imagine he’ll at least come close to securing a turnover for himself.

Luckily for Foles, he’ll be able to lean on Leonard Fournette. The talented runner had a down 2018 campaign, but he was overweight and banged up. Fournette has re-dedicated himself, so I expect him to have a rebound season. He has a great matchup against a Kansas City defense that figures to struggle against the rush.

RECAP: This is another game impacted by the hurricane. I wanted to bet Jacksonville earlier, as my spread said Kansas City should be -1. Plus, the Chiefs, who are getting tons of public action, would be facing the same issue as the Ravens will be in the Florida heat. However, the hurricane is projected to ram right through Jacksonville, so the Jaguar players could be too distracted by that to focus on football. I’m going to lay off this game for the time being for that reason.

THURSDAY THOUGHTS: Hurricane Dorian has passed through Jacksonville, so I don’t think it’ll be a factor in this game. With that in mind, I really like the Jaguars. This spread should be Kansas City -1 per my numbers and -2 according to DVOA. That means we’re going through the key number of three. It’s going to be 95 degrees and humid in Jacksonville, so I expect the Chiefs to wilt in the second half. Besides, the Chiefs struggled in these defensive, grindy games last year, nearly losing at Denver and then suffering a defeat at Seattle. The sharps have bet Jacksonville down to 3 in most books, but you can still get 3.5 at Bovada. I’m going to lock that in for four units.

SATURDAY NOTES: If you haven’t seen the weather report for this game, it’s supposed to be 94 degrees and humid. This is going to be like playing in a steam room, especially for the Chiefs in their colored jerseys. The Jaguars took down the Patriots in similar conditions last year, so I don’t see why they couldn’t upset the Chiefs.

Tennessee Titans (0-0) at Cleveland Browns (0-0)
Line: Browns by 6. Total: 44.
Sunday, Sept. 8, 1:00 PM


The Matchup. Edge: Browns.

As with the random NFL notes, I’m going to have all of my Random College Football Notes on one page as well. Oh, and you can find my College Football Picks here.

Random College Football Notes:

1. I don’t know about you, but when I saw Justin Herbert bang his knee in the Auburn game, I immediately thought the worst. I was hoping he wasn’t hurt, but then I recalled how foolish he was for returning to school when he would have been a probable top-five pick in the 2019 NFL Draft. He almost ruined his future just like that.

If I were Herbert, I would really think about shutting things down. I know he’d be criticized heavily by the media, but we’ve seen college football players refuse to play in bowl games and not be punished on draft day. Nick Bosa left his Ohio State teammates even earlier, and yet he was the second pick in the draft. If Herbert said goodbye to Oregon today, his standing in the 2020 NFL Draft almost certainly wouldn’t be affected.

2. Now, if Herbert were paid, things would be different. I don’t think the colleges should give money directly to the players, as it would cause an even greater disparity between the haves and have-nots in college football, but I think that college players should be able to obtain their own endorsements.

I see no harm in this, and I think it’s bulls**t that this is against the rules. If Pepsi wants to have Herbert be their spokesman, I don’t see why he has to turn that down. If a local business wants to have one of Herbert’s teammates appear in a commercial, why couldn’t he? The NCAA makes so much money off these athletes, so why can’t they earn anything, especially if it’s not directly from the NCAA?

3. I don’t remember if I discussed this last year or not, but I really, REALLY hate ESPN’s scoring graphic for college football. Take a look at this if you don’t know what I’m referring to:



If you study this long enough, you know exactly what’s going on. There’s 9:57 remaining in the third quarter, with 10 seconds on the play clock. It’s second-and-11. Easy enough.

However, a quick glance tells a different story. When I see 9:57 left on the clock, I then notice the “2nd” under it. My brain automatically assumes that there is 9:57 remaining in the second quarter, and then that it’s third-and-10. Because time is associated with what quarter it is, that “2nd” immediately becomes part of the time for me. I have to think about it for several seconds before I realize that it’s the third quarter.

I really wish ESPN would change this before I lose my mind. The quarter should be next to the time; not on the bottom. Of course, ESPN refuses to fix all of its other problems, so I don’t expect this to be addressed anytime soon.

CLEVELAND OFFENSE: If you didn’t see the Browns’ preseason loss to the Buccaneers, it was a discouraging look for their offense. Sure, the top receivers didn’t play, but I was more focused on the offensive line. Baker Mayfield’s pass protection was atrocious, and that would explain his stat line: 10-of-26 for 72 yards and an interception. Mayfield threw some horrible passes, but the main issue was that he had no time in the pocket, and it’s not like Ndamukong Suh played the entire opening half, or anything.

The Browns have great talent throughout their roster, but their offensive line could be a legitimate issue this season. They traded away Kevin Zeitler, creating a hole at one of the guard spots. Meanwhile, I don’t trust either of their tackles, especially Greg Robinson. The Titans have a nice front comprised of Jurrell Casey, Cameron Wake and Harold Landry that could create some issues for Mayfield. Also, running the ball could be difficult, as Tennessee figures to have one of the best ground-stopping defenses in the NFL.

If Mayfield can find time in the pocket, he could exploit one potential weakness on Tennessee’s defense, which is cornerback Malcolm Butler. Mayfield certainly has the firepower at receiver to do this, but it’s a question of the offensive line doing its job.

TENNESSEE OFFENSE: Speaking of offensive lines needing to protect their quarterback, Marcus Mariota could deal with severe pass-protection issues in this contest as well. His blocking unit, which already had a couple of weak spots to begin with, won’t have Taylor Lewan because of suspension.

Mariota, who took 11 sacks in a game last year, will be running for his life. Luckily for him, he’ll be able to lean on two weapons he didn’t possess last year. Tight end Delanie Walker looks healthy in his return from injury, and he could get open against the Cleveland linebackers and safeties. There’s also slot receiver Adam Humphries, who will be a reliable weapon for Mariota on third down. Humphries seems to have a favorable matchup in this contest.

When Mariota isn’t throwing to Walker and Humphries, he’ll need to use his legs to move the chains. I don’t see Derrick Henry doing very much. He won’t have the blocking, and I’m not sure if he’s completely healthy anyway.

RECAP: I initially made my spread Cleveland -8.5 for this game, but I’m beginning to wonder if that’s correct. I’ve adjusted to -7.5, which is still a half-point shy of the computer model’s projection of Cleveland -8.

Either way this line is too low – but yet, it’s suspiciously too low. The public is pounding the Browns, like this is a very easy wager, and I understand why casual bettors would believe that. They love Cleveland this year. ESPN has told them that the Browns are one of the Super Bowl favorites, after all, so it must be true.

However, I think there’s a chance the Browns blow this game. They have very high expectations without any history of success, which is usually a recipe for disaster. They also have legitimate concerns on their offensive line, which Tennessee could exploit.

I wish we were getting Tennessee 6, but the sportsbooks are keeping this line at 5.5 for a reason. I’m going to have two or three units on the Titans, and I might increase that number to four by Sunday.

THURSDAY THOUGHTS: DVOA says this spread should be Cleveland -1! That’s pretty crazy, but I can see why. I thought about re-adjusting my unit count to three, but Jack Conklin appeared on the injury report, so I’d like to confirm his status first.

SATURDAY NOTES: The computer model has dropped this projected line to Cleveland -6. That makes me more tempted to put a third unit on Tennessee. I’ll decide in the morning.

Los Angeles Rams (0-0) at Carolina Panthers (0-0)
Line: Rams by 3. Total: 49.5.
Sunday, Sept. 8, 1:00 PM


The Matchup. Edge: Panthers.

If you’ve followed this site for a while, you might remember that I like to respond to my spam mails. It all started seven years ago, when a man named Jon Wire from the “United Bank of Africoan” promised me an ATM card of some sort, so I responded as a man named Mister Compassion Chuck Norris, who was raised by wolves. The following season, I received e-mails from Richard Held and Loon Bruce, who told me I won a Facebook Award, which comes with a “lump sum pay out of (750,000.00 GBP).” Pretending to be Matthew Millen Kim, I sent out my application and fake money.

I’ve been messing around with spammers ever since, pretending to be Harvey Weinstein, Tom Brady, Ramsay Bolton and Walter White. I’ll have brand new spam mails every week, starting in Week 2. For now, here are the Spam Mails from last year, so check them out if you want to see me screw with spammers.

LOS ANGELES OFFENSE: It seems as though everyone believes the Rams will be one of the best teams in the NFL again. While that could certainly be the case, it’s difficult to ignore their many flaws. Of course, everyone knows about Todd Gurley’s arthritic knees, but that’s actually the least of my concerns. Running backs are easily replaceable – see what C.J. Anderson did in the playoffs as proof. I worry more about the five guys in front of Gurley and the other Ram runners. Los Angeles lost two members of its offensive line this offseason, as guard Rodger Saffold and center John Sullivan are both gone. Chemistry is key on the offensive line, and the Rams’ blockers don’t have much of that because there are two new starters in the group who didn’t get a chance to receive any reps in the preseason.

I also have concerns about Jared Goff. While Goff posted pretty stats last season, most that came against bad teams in easy situations. Whenever Goff battled a team with a fierce pass rush, he wilted under pressure. Late in the year against the Bears, Eagles and Patriots, Goff threw zero touchdowns compared to six interceptions, and his completion percentage was a pedestrian 54.8. Goff has great talent, and he works hard, but his football IQ is limited. He tends to be flustered in tough situations, which is why he forgot his own snap count on one play in the Super Bowl.

The question is whether Goff is going to see lots of pressure in this game, and the answer is a resounding yes. The Panthers couldn’t get to the quarterback very well last year, but major changes were made. The front office signed Gerald McCoy, who is going to cause major havoc with Kawann Short against an inexperienced interior. Meanwhile, first-round pick Brian Burns and newly acquired Bruce Irvin will provide some pressure off the edge. Goff will take plenty of sacks as a result, and he’ll be forced into more turnovers.

CAROLINA OFFENSE: The Panthers, like the Rams, will have some new starters on their offensive line. The difference is that some of the Carolina newcomers are proven commodities. The Panthers spent big money on center Matt Paradis this offseason, and he’ll be a huge upgrade in the middle of the front. Meanwhile, a second-round pick was used on Greg Little, who has looked good in training camp. There’s a question as to if Little will be able to suit up in this game because of a concussion, but his absence won’t be a huge deal because Carolina will also be welcoming Daryl Williams back from injury. Williams played just one game last season, but he’s a talented tackle who will keep Cam Newton’s blind side protected.

A year ago, the Panthers wouldn’t have been able to shield Newton from the Los Angeles pass rushers. Williams was out, while Paradis was still on the Broncos. On the other side of the ball, Ndamukong Suh was starting next to Aaron Donald. While Donald is still there, Suh has moved on to Tampa, making the Rams’ defensive front less fearsome. As a result, Newton should have time in the pocket to find his receivers for big gains. Newton is entering his second season in Norv Turner’s system, so he figures to have a big year if he can remain healthy.

I like Christian McCaffrey’s matchup in this contest as well. McCaffrey may not have a big game as a runner, but the Los Angeles linebackers aren’t particularly strong, so he could have some nice pick-ups as a receiver out of the backfield.

RECAP: This is my September NFL Pick of the Month. I’m putting eight units on the Panthers.

It’s amazing how wrong this spread is. I made this number Carolina -4. Granted, I’m overly bullish on the Panthers, as I bet them to win the Super Bowl at 60/1 odds, but I’m a big believer in them. Remember, they were 6-2 when Newton was healthy last year. They stumbled down the stretch when he suffered a shoulder injury. Now, Newton is healthy, and the Panthers have improved their offensive line and pass rush. Meanwhile, the Rams lost Suh and two starters on their offensive line. They were overrated to begin with last season – they barely covered the spread after Week 4 – and now they aren’t even as good as they were in 2018 when they were overwhelmed by all of the good teams they battled in December onward.

The spread favors the Panthers, and so does the psychological aspect of this game. The Rams will be playing an early contest on the East Coast, which could be challenging for them. Last year, they had one such affair, and they struggled to put away the horrible Lions. They were up by just three entering the fourth quarter despite battling an injured Matthew Stafford with no one except Kenny Golladay at his disposal. The Rams ended up covering, but only because of a bogus, late touchdown.

That’s two edges in Carolina’s favor, so how about a third? Take a look at how much public money is coming in on the Rams. Everyone is pounding Los Angeles like this is the easiest wager in the world. “Of course the Rams will beat the crappy Panthers by more than three – easy money!” That’s the thought process of casual bettors. Yet, these bettors are completely ignoring why the Panthers will be far better this year, while the Rams are due for some regression. They’re basing everything off last year. They’re slow to adapt because poor-analysis ESPN doesn’t tell them otherwise, so this is something we can take advantage of.

This game has stuck out to me for quite some time. I thought about betting it when I was in Vegas, but I was holding out hope for Carolina 3.5, or 3 100 at the very least. Yet, despite all of the money on the Rams, the spread hasn’t moved, which is another indication that the Panthers will end up being the right side.

WEDNESDAY UPDATE/LOCKED IN: The sharps love the Panthers as much as I do. They pounded Carolina at 3, so the line is now 2.5 across the board. Fortunately, Bovada still has 3 -125 available. It’s worth paying -125 juice for three because that’s the main key number in football.

THURSDAY THOUGHTS: I locked this in, so nothing will be changing. The Panthers are 2.5 in the SuperContest, yet they will still be one of my picks, as I expect them to win outright. Losing the 3 sucks, but the line being 2.5 might mean that fewer people are on Carolina.

SATURDAY NOTES: This spread keeps dropping, thanks to very heavy sharp action on the Panthers. I’m loving it. If you didn’t get 3, I’d still recommend Carolina as a big wager.