NFL Picks Against the Spread: Week 17, 2018

NFL Picks (Preseason 2018): 11-10 (+$445)
NFL Picks (Week 1, 2018): 8-7-1 (+$150)
NFL Picks (Week 2, 2018): 8-7-1 (-$80)
NFL Picks (Week 3, 2018): 8-8 (-$530)
NFL Picks (Week 4, 2018): 8-6-1 (+$480)
NFL Picks (Week 5, 2018): 10-4-1 (+$1,515)
NFL Picks (Week 6, 2018): 6-7-2 (-$1,015)
NFL Picks (Week 7, 2018): 7-7 (+$430)
NFL Picks (Week 8, 2018): 6-8 (+$710)
NFL Picks (Week 9, 2018): 5-8 (-$1,245)
NFL Picks (Week 10, 2018): 5-8-1 (-$955)
NFL Picks (Week 11, 2018): 5-5-3 (+$950)
NFL Picks (Week 12, 2018): 7-8 (-$5)
NFL Picks (Week 13, 2018): 7-9 (-$630)
NFL Picks (Week 14, 2018): 11-5 (+$870)
NFL Picks (Week 15, 2018): 8-7-1 (-$1,225)
NFL Picks (Week 16, 2018): 6-8-2 (+$45)

NFL Picks (2018): 126-122-11 (-$90)
NFL Picks (2017): 137-147-10 (-$4,300)
NFL Picks (2016): 148-127-10 (+$780)
NFL Picks (2015): 133-138-10 (-$3,215)
NFL Picks (2014): 143-133-7 (-$1,885)
NFL Picks (2013): 144-131-8 (+$7,825)
NFL Picks (2012): 130-145-8 (-$7,445)
NFL Picks (2011): 137-133-12 (-$1,335)
NFL Picks (2010): 144-131-8 (+$5,880)
NFL Picks (2009): 151-124-9 (+$4,235)
NFL Picks (2008): 136-125-6 (+$6,105)
NFL Picks (2007): 162-135-10 (+$3,585)
If you don’t quite understand the line, total or anything else, go to my Sports Betting FAQ.

Vegas betting action updated Dec. 30, 11:45 a.m. ET. Follow @walterfootball for updates.

Go to Week 17 NFL Picks – Early Games

Oakland Raiders (4-11) at Kansas City Chiefs (11-4)
Line: Chiefs by 14. Total: 52.5.
Westgate Advance Point Spread: Chiefs -13.5.
Walt’s Calculated Line: Chiefs -16.5.
Sunday, Dec 30, 4:25 PM

The Game. Edge: Chiefs.

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I’ve been messing around with spammers ever since, pretending to be Aaron Hernandez, Tom Brady, Ramsay Bolton and Walter White. I have brand new Spam Mails this year, so check them out if you want to see me screw with spammers. I’ll have new ones every week!

KANSAS CITY OFFENSE: The Chiefs scored 40 points in their first matchup with the Raiders. We can’t ask if that result would’ve been any different had Kareem Hunt not played because that was actually the first game in which Hunt wasn’t on the field for Kansas City.

If the Chiefs were able to score 40 on the Raiders in Oakland, imagine what’ll happen at Arrowhead. Patrick Mahomes uncharacteristically missed some easy throws for him against the Seahawks, including one pass where he whiffed on a wide-open Travis Kelce in the end zone. I imagine Mahomes will bounce back in a big way, especially if the Raiders are missing multiple defensive backs like they were against the Broncos. Case Keenum was too incompetent to take advantage of that liability, but Mahomes will definitely be able to do so.

The Raiders are better against the run than the pass, but they’ll struggle in that regard as well. Hunt is missed, but Damien Williams has proven to be a capable replacement. I imagine he’ll have another big performance.

OAKLAND OFFENSE: The Chiefs, of course, have their well-publicized defensive issues. They’ve been awful against the run all year, and now they’re struggling to stop opposing receivers in the wake of cornerback Kendall Fuller’s injury. There’s a chance Fuller will return for the playoffs, but I wouldn’t count on him playing in this game.

That said, the Chiefs won’t need Fuller to beat the Raiders. Derek Carr seldom looks deep, and that’s because he doesn’t trust his offensive line to protect him. As it so happens, the one thing the Chiefs do well on this side of the ball is generate a consistent pass rush with Justin Houston, Dee Ford and Chris Jones. I don’t think the Raiders will be able to block them.

The Raiders have the personnel to run well on the Chiefs, especially in the wake of Doug Martin’s solid showing Monday night. However, Martin may not get many opportunities if the Chiefs establish a quick, big lead, which is a very realistic possibility.

RECAP: The Raiders won their Super Bowl against the Steelers in Week 14. They were very flat the following Sunday, losing to Jeff Driskel by 14 points. They then put forth full effort again this past Monday night in their farewell party. They beat the Broncos in their final game in Oakland, prompting their coach and quarterback to once again run around and give high-fives to the fans.

With that in mind, I can’t see the Raiders putting forth their “A” game in this contest, especially given that they have to play on a short week. The Chiefs will have more energy, as they have to secure the No. 1 seed, so I think they’ll get back on track and play a good game against a dead team. This should be an easy Kansas City victory, though I worry about the Chiefs’ horrible defense surrendering a back-door cover.

THURSDAY THOUGHTS: I might bump this to two units. I just don’t see the Raiders showing up.

SATURDAY NOTES: There’s a positive development for the Chiefs, as Kendall Fuller practiced fully all week, so he could play Sunday. I’ll bump this up to two units if Fuller is available.

SUNDAY MORNING NOTES: We’re still waiting on Kendall Fuller’s status, so let’s see what the injury report looks like. Check back around 3:45ish for final thoughts on the late games!

FINAL THOUGHTS: For fantasy purposes (Draft Kings allows late swaps), Damien Williams will start, as Spencer Ware is out. For betting purposes, Kendall Fuller will play, which is huge. I’m putting a second unit on the Chiefs. The best number is -14 -105 at Bookmaker.

The Psychology. Edge: Chiefs.

The Raiders were flat following their Super Bowl win versus Pittsburgh, and I imagine they’ll be flat following their farewell party win versus Denver.

The Vegas. Edge: Raiders.

Equal action at first, but the money is now coming in on the Chiefs.

Percentage of money on Kansas City: 65% (15,000 bets)

The Trends. Edge: Chiefs.

History: Road Team has won 15 of the last 24 meetings.

Raiders are 18-11 ATS as double-digit underdogs since 2008.

Raiders are 18-37 ATS after a win since 2009.

Raiders are 3-11 ATS in Week 17 since 2003.

Opening Line: Chiefs -14.

Opening Total: 55.5.

Weather: Sunny/clear, 43 degrees. Mild wind, 12 mph.

Week 17 NFL Pick: Chiefs 45, Raiders 24
Chiefs -14 -105 (2 Units) – Bookmaker — Correct; +$200
Over 52.5 (0 Units) — Incorrect; $0
Chiefs 35, Raiders 3

Philadelphia Eagles (8-7) at Washington Redskins (7-8)
Line: Eagles by 6. Total: 42.
Westgate Advance Point Spread: Eagles -5.5.
Walt’s Calculated Line: Eagles -3.5.
Sunday, Dec 30, 4:25 PM

The Game. Edge: Eagles.

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PHILADELPHIA OFFENSE: The Nick Foles magic continues! Foles just torched the Texans to the tune of 471 yards and four touchdowns. He made a couple of mistakes, but was prolific otherwise. Granted, the Texans were missing some cornerbacks, but Foles was playing well even before they exited with injuries. He’s truly made himself lots of money with this impressive late-season stretch.

The Redskins, like the Texans, will be missing personnel in their secondary, albeit for different reasons. Washington let go of talented safety D.J. Swearinger because he was vocal about the coaching staff. His absence will obviously help Foles as he attempts to will his team into the playoffs. The Redskins had the 10th-ranked DVOA pass defense, but I imagine their secondary won’t play as well in the wake of Swearinger’s departure.

Meanwhile, the Redskins have been much weaker versus the run. The Eagles like to mix it up in the backfield, giving different running backs the ball at all times. They can pound the rock in favorable matchups, and this one certainly qualifies.

WASHINGTON OFFENSE: Speaking of running the ball, that’s the only thing the Redskins do well on this side of the ball. Philadelphia has been better versus the rush lately. We saw the Eagles clamp down on Todd Gurley a couple of weeks ago. They did the same thing to Peterson, save for one inexplicable long run. I imagine Philadelphia will limit Peterson as best as it can in the rematch.

Things would be different if the Eagles had to worry about Washington’s downfield passing attack, but Josh Johnson won’t threaten them. Johnson is a smart, mobile quarterback, but his accuracy and arm strength are lackluster. He’ll move the chains at times, and he’ll get the Redskins into field goal range on some occasions, but he won’t score enough points to beat the Eagles.

Something else that needs to be considered is Johnson’s receiving corps. Save for Jamison Crowder, Johnson doesn’t have much to work with. His top two tight ends are injured, while Josh Doctson was responsible for last week’s loss when he gave up on a route, prompting Johnson to throw his game-ending interception. Doctson will likely continue to show a lack of effort in this contest, given what has transpired in the locker room leading up to this contest.

RECAP: This is the first game I’m writing about where a team absolutely needs to win. Casual fans and bettors will assume that this means the Eagles will cover because they need it more than the Redskins.

This belief is flawed, however. One legendary NFL handicapper once said, “If a team needs to win, it’s probably not very good in the first place.” Teams that need victories in Weeks 16 and 17 typically tend to choke. Years ago, I dubbed this as the Aurora Snowmo Effect. This was an amalgamation between Aurora Snow, a porn actress who typically “chokes,” and Tony RoMO for his fumbling of the football on a field goal try against the Seahawks in the playoffs. Romo went on to perform better in the clutch, but the name stuck because it was a catchy one.

Thus, the Eagles will be victimized by the Aurora Snowmo Effect. I planned on betting heavily on the Redskins, but the Swearinger ordeal happened. I can’t imagine the locker room being happy about Swearinger being cut. This could create a divide between the players and the coaching staff, so I could see the Redskins being a complete no-show in this game.

Given that issue, I’m going to pick the Eagles. I won’t bet them because of the strong choking possibility, but I don’t want any part of Washington right now.

THURSDAY THOUGHTS: There’s a ton of public money coming in on the Eagles. I see lots of contrarians picking the Redskins, but no sharp money has come in on Washington yet. This doesn’t surprise me because the Redskins might be a no-show after being eliminated from the playoffs and then seeing a player cut for criticizing a coach.

SATURDAY NOTES: Again, I don’t expect the Redskins to show up, though that’s just a guess. It could be possible that the rest of the team didn’t like D.J. Swearinger and thought he was wrong about the coaching staff. Still, I think the Eagles cover.

SUNDAY MORNING NOTES: The sharps just bet the Redskins down from +7 to +6. I’m not so sure why they’re so confident that Washington will show up to play hard after being eliminated and seeing a player cut for criticizing a coach.

FINAL THOUGHTS: This line has dropped to +5.5 at Pinnacle. There’s some serious sharp action on the Redskins, but I don’t agree with it.

The Psychology. Edge: None.
The Eagles could choke in a must-win situation, but the Redskins might be flat after being eliminated from the playoffs. They may quit in the wake of the D.J. Swearinger release.

The Vegas. Edge: Redskins.

It’s understandable that everyone’s betting the Eagles.

Percentage of money on Philadelphia: 76% (15,000 bets)

The Trends. Edge: None.

History: Eagles have won the last 3 meetings.

Opening Line: Eagles -6.5.

Opening Total: 41.5.

Weather: Cloudy, 43 degrees. Light wind.

Week 17 NFL Pick: Eagles 24, Redskins 17
Eagles -6 (0 Units) — Correct; $0
Under 42 (0 Units) — Correct; $0
Eagles 24, Redskins 0

Cleveland Browns (7-7-1) at Baltimore Ravens (9-6)
Line: Ravens by 6. Total: 41.
Westgate Advance Point Spread: Ravens -5.
Walt’s Calculated Line: Ravens -5.
Sunday, Dec 30, 4:25 PM

The Game. Edge: Ravens.

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BALTIMORE OFFENSE: Lamar Jackson beat the Chargers with his arm last Saturday night, hitting Mark Andrews with a deep pass to give his team the lead for good. The Chargers sold out on his scrambles, making sure he wouldn’t run all over them. Jackson defeated them aerially instead.

While Jackson played well as a passer against San Angeles, I’m not sure if this sort of success can continue. Jackson has great talent, but he’s still raw and inexperienced. He’ll have his ups and downs, at least until he has many more games under his belt. If Jackson is eager to throw more often in this game, he could be punished for it. The Browns have an elite aerial defense, ranking in the top five of DVOA in that department.

The Browns are much weaker against the run, or at least they used to be. I’m not sure what happened, but they’ve limited Phillip Lindsay and Joe Mixon in the past two weeks. Gus Edwards is obviously less talented than those two backs, so if Cleveland’s improved play versus the rush continues, it could mean that Edwards wll be contained. That said, it’ll be difficult for the Browns to concentrate on Edwards, given Jackson’s ability to scramble.

CLEVELAND OFFENSE: Baker Mayfield has mostly been great ever since healing from the injury he suffered against the Chargers, and I believe he deserves to be Offensive Rookie of the Year. Saquon Barkley has been incredible, but Mayfield is a quarterback, and players at that position shouldn’t be performing this well so soon. Mayfield has been way better than the other four first-round quarterbacks.

That said, Mayfield could struggle in this game. Mayfield’s last bad performance occurred in Houston, as he was playing a great defense on the road. This is a similar dynamic. The Ravens have the top defense in the AFC, ranking third and seventh against the pass and run, respectively. The Browns don’t have a dynamic receiver capable of beating the spectacular Baltimore defensive backs, so Mayfield’s options will be limited. Nick Chubb, meanwhile, will have trouble finding running room versus the Ravens’ stout front. The good news is that the Browns have a capable offensive line, so Mayfield won’t see as much pressure as other quarterbacks have against Baltimore.

If the Ravens have one weakness defensively, it’s their inability to defend tight ends very well. The Chargers couldn’t take advantage of this because Antonio Gates is a hundred years old. The Browns have a better chance with David Njoku, though Njoku has been wildly inconsistent in his sophomore campaign.

RECAP: This is another game where a team that needs to win is likely to choke. All the Ravens need to do to clinch playoff berth is beat the Browns. That’s it. Seems easy, right?

It’s likely that the Ravens will fall victim to the Aurora Snowmo Effect. And unlike the Redskins, the Browns are fully motivated. They want to get over .500 to give them some momentum for next year, and they’re going to treat this like their Super Bowl.

The one concern I have with the Browns is that they have a rookie quarterback playing a road game against a great defense. I loved the Browns against the Texans, yet they got blown out in that game. Mayfield could self-destruct with several interceptions, just like he did at Houston. However, I think there’s a better chance that the Browns cover this spread and perhaps even win outright.

THURSDAY THOUGHTS: The sharps have jumped on the Browns at +6, taking this down to +5.5 in most books. Fortunately, some square shops still have +6s available. Bovada is listing Cleveland +6 -115, while TopBet has +6 -110 available. I’m going to lock in the latter for two units.

SATURDAY NOTES: This spread has risen to +6.5, which is the result of sharp action. I still like Cleveland for a couple of units though. If you’re wondering if I’m concerned about Denzel Ward being out, I’m not. The Ravens don’t throw enough to take advantage of that.

SUNDAY MORNING NOTES: Argh, the sharps bet this up to -7. We missed some great value with Cleveland. This is only a two-unit play though, so it won’t be the end of the world if we get this wrong.

FINAL THOUGHTS: This line is still -7, which seems wrong to me. As mentioned earlier, pro money has been on Baltimore.

The Psychology. Edge: Browns.

The Aurora Snowmo Effect will hover over Baltimore, as the Ravens will choke in a must-win game.

The Vegas. Edge: None.
Equal action.

Percentage of money on Baltimore: 55% (17,000 bets)

The Trends. Edge: Ravens.

History: Ravens have won 18 of the last 21 meetings (Road Team has covered 11 of the last 17 non-pushes).

John Harbaugh is 9-1 SU at home vs. rookie quarterbacks.

Ravens are 28-21 ATS at home as an underdog or favorite of 1-7 points with Joe Flacco.

Opening Line: Ravens -5.5.

Opening Total: 41.

Weather: .

Week 17 NFL Pick: Ravens 27, Browns 24
Browns +6 (2 Units) – TopBet — Correct; +$200
Over 41 (0 Units) — Correct; $0
Ravens 26, Browns 24

Cincinnati Bengals (6-9) at Pittsburgh Steelers (8-6-1)
Line: Steelers by 14. Total: 45.
Westgate Advance Point Spread: Steelers -12.5.
Walt’s Calculated Line: Steelers -12.
Sunday, Dec 30, 4:25 PM

The Game. Edge: Steelers.

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PITTSBURGH OFFENSE: As if the Bengals didn’t have enough problems on defense, they lost two key players last week. Vontaze Burfict and Dre Kirkpatrick were both knocked out during the Cleveland loss. The Browns basically did what they wanted offensively when they weren’t getting in their own way early in the game. Had they not committed mental blunders, they would’ve scored in the high 30s.

The Steelers typically make these sorts of mistakes on the road, but not at home. Ben Roethlisberger plays his best at Heinz Field, and he’ll be able to torch Cincinnati’s horrible secondary with Antonio Brown and JuJu Smith-Schuster. The latter receiver was playing on one leg against the Saints, yet still was effective at times. I imagine that Smith-Schuster will play better with an extra week of rest.

The Bengals aren’t any better versus the run, especially with Burfict out. Given that Burfict has suffered multiple concussions in the second half of this season, I can’t imagine him playing in this game. Pittsburgh should be able to pound the rock quite easily with Jaylen Samuels or James Conner.

CINCINNATI OFFENSE: Burfict and Kirkpatrick aren’t the only key players who will likely miss this game. Tyler Boyd will probably be out once again. That means that Jeff Driskel will have to beat the Steelers by throwing to the trio of John Ross, Cody Core and Alex Erickson. I imagine the Steeler defensive backs will be shaking in their boots in anticipation of this matchup.

The one thing the Bengals do well offensively, with Boyd and the other receivers out, is run the ball with Joe Mixon. The Bengals didn’t get a chance to do this very much against the Browns because they never had the lead. I imagine the same thing will happen in this game. Furthermore, Pittsburgh rush defense is eighth in DVOA, so the Steelers had a nice matchup versus Mixon regardless.

RECAP: You could argue that the Steelers fall under the Aurora Snowmo Effect, but there’s no pressure on them. They’re not expected to reach the playoffs because Baltimore is so heavily favored over Cleveland, so I don’t think they’ll be choking in this game.

Besides, the Steelers don’t have much competition this week. I don’t think the Bengals, in their current state, can compete with the Steelers at all. Driskel’s terrible, his supporting cast sucks, and the injury-ravaged defense is in shambles. Pittsburgh will win this game easily.

I’m going to bet the Steelers for three units. I’d be upset with myself if I didn’t have one more opportunity to bet heavily against Driskel. This might be our last chance to ever do so!

THURSDAY THOUGHTS: There’s no indication of line movement either way. The important news I have on this Thursday afternoon is that it definitely sounds like Vontaze Burfict will be out. In fact, there’s a report saying Burfict’s career could be in jeopardy as a result of his latest concussion. I’m sure Steeler fans won’t be crying themselves to sleep at night upon learning this.

SATURDAY NOTES: There’s a chance Antonio Brown could miss this game, but the Bengals will be without Tyler Boyd and Vontaze Burfict, so the Steelers should still cover if Brown doesn’t play. It’s obviously not ideal though, so I wouldn’t go above three units.

SUNDAY MORNING NOTES: This line has fallen to Pittsburgh -14 in the wake of the Antonio Brown news. It’s possible that this line could continue to fall if Brown is declared out, but there’s also a chance he’ll be able to suit up, so I’m going to lock this in now. If Brown is active, this line might pop back up to -14.5, so I want to make sure to get the -14.

FINAL THOUGHTS: Antonio Brown is out. That doesn’t affect my pick. This spread remains -14, though you can get +100 juice at Bookmaker.

The Psychology. Edge: None.
No edge found.

The Vegas. Edge: None.
Equal action.

Percentage of money on Cincinnati: 58% (11,000 bets)

The Trends. Edge: None.

History: Steelers have won 19 of the last 24 meetings.

Bengals are 17-9 ATS against the Steelers if they lost to them previously the same season in the last 26 instances.

Marvin Lewis is 16-9 ATS in same-season revenge games.

Marvin Lewis is 16-7 ATS in his second-consecutive road game.

Bengals are 44-28 ATS as underdogs since 2009.

Steelers are 35-18 ATS in December home games since 2000.

Ben Roethlisberger is 50-30 ATS vs. the AFC North.

Ben Roethlisberger is 47-34 ATS in December and January.

Opening Line: Steelers -14.

Opening Total: 48.

Weather: Partly cloudy, 40 degrees. Light wind.

Week 17 NFL Pick: Steelers 34, Bengals 10
Steelers -14 (3 Units) – any sportsbook — Incorrect; -$330
Under 45 (0 Units) — Correct; $0
Steelers 16, Bengals 13

Chicago Bears (11-4) at Minnesota Vikings (8-6-1)
Line: Vikings by 6. Total: 40.5.
Westgate Advance Point Spread: Vikings -6.
Walt’s Calculated Line: Pick.
Sunday, Dec 30, 4:25 PM

The Game. Edge: Bears.

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CHICAGO OFFENSE: The Bears have mismatch edges against the Vikings on both sides of the ball. For their offense, it’s their ability to get the ball to Tarik Cohen in the open field. The Vikings have a slow linebacking corps that can’t cover, so dealing Cohen seems like it’ll be a big problem for them.

The Vikings otherwise have a stellar defense. They put great pressure on the quarterback, stop the run fairly well and can eliminate a team’s No. 1 receiver. The second and third items on that list will be prevalent in this contest. They can limit Jordan Howard, while Xavier Rhodes will erase Allen Robinson from the game plan.

As for Minnesota’s pass rush, that’ll be a different story. The Bears have one of the best offensive lines in the NFL. The Vikings weren’t able to harass Mitchell Trubisky very effectively in the first meeting between the two teams, so I don’t see why that would suddenly change.

MINNESOTA OFFENSE: The matchup edge for the Bears on this side of the ball can be found in the trenches. While Chicago has one of the top offensive lines in the NFL, the Vikings have one of the worst blocking units. This is especially problematic against Chicago. The Bears have a prolific front that will be able to put immense pressure on Kirk Cousins, which will disrupt Minnesota’s offense.

The Bears also once had a stellar secondary, but that area could be a weakness in this matchup. In addition to cornerback Bryce Callahan being out, there’s a chance safety Eddie Jackson could miss another game. The Bears would need all hands on deck in their secondary to stop the Vikings’ aerial assault. On the occasions in which Cousins has time to throw, he’d be able to locate Adam Thielen, who won’t have to deal with Callahan in the slot.

Cousins connecting with Thielen is Minnesota’s best chance of consistently moving the chains, as Stefon Diggs will be covered pretty well on the outside. Meanwhile, Dalvin Cook won’t have much room to run against one of the league’s best ground defenses.

RECAP: This is an extremely difficult and tricky game to handicap, and I’ll be honest: I don’t know what to make of it.

On one hand, Chicago +5 seems like it has a ton of value. The Bears are the better team, and they match up well against the Vikings. Minnesota will be in full Aurora Snowmo mode. The Vikings need to win, so there will be lots of pressure on them. From this perspective, Chicago seems like a no-brainer.

On the other hand, the Bears may sit their players if they see that the Rams are up big over the 49ers at halftime. Chicago stands to gain nothing from winning this game if the Rams prevail this week. And, making matters worse, if the Bears show the Vikings any tricks up their sleeve this week and still happen to lose, they won’t have an advantage next week. As it currently stands, if the Rams and Vikings win this week, Chicago will host Minnesota in the wild-card round next weekend.

Chicago’s coaching staff may opt to mail this one in. It wouldn’t even surprise me if we saw Trubisky for a quarter or a half, especially if the Rams are way ahead.

With all that in mind, this game is very difficult to predict. I think I’m going to side with the Vikings for now, but perhaps something later in the week will change my mind. Either way, I’m almost certainly not going to bet on this contest.

THURSDAY THOUGHTS: The sharps continue to bet the Vikings in anticipation of the Bears pulling their starters if the Rams are up big. Also, my dad would yell at me if I didn’t mention that the crooked officials who gave the Cowboys a victory over the Eagles a few weeks ago will be officiating this game. “Jerry Jones already has paid them,” my dad told me on the phone Wednesday. I disagreed, but only because checks usually are given to employees on Fridays.

SATURDAY NOTES: Eddie Jackson and Allen Robinson are doubtful for this game. The Bears could rest their other starters as well, so we’re going to see this spread creep up leading up to kickoff. However, Kirk Cousins is very live to choke in this game, so I’d stay away from betting Minnesota.

SUNDAY MORNING NOTES: This line continues to move up with sharp money on Minnesota. The pros correctly identified that the Bears might sit their starters, but I’m not so sure that a choking Kirk Cousins can beat Chase Daniel in the second half!

FINAL THOUGHTS: Nothing has changed since my Sunday morning notes. This line has remained at -6. This is a very difficult game to handicap, so I’ll avoid this one.

The Psychology. Edge: None.
The Aurora Snowmo Effect will be inside Minnesota’s dome, as the Vikings are primed to choke in a must-win. However, the Bears may sit their starters in the second half if the Rams are up big.

The Vegas. Edge: None.
Equal action.

Percentage of money on Chicago: 51% (19,000 bets)

The Trends. Edge: Vikings.

History: Home Team has won 26 of the last 31 meetings (Vikings won 6 of the last 8 meetings).

Bears are 18-37 ATS in December road games the previous 55 instances.

Mike Zimmer is 52-26 ATS as head coach of the Vikings.

Vikings are 28-11 ATS at home since 2014.

Opening Line: Vikings -6.

Opening Total: 41.

Weather: Dome.

Week 17 NFL Pick: Vikings 23, Bears 16
Vikings -5.5 (0 Units) — Incorrect; $0
Under 40.5 (0 Units) — Correct; $0
Bears 24, Vikings 10

Los Angeles Chargers (11-4) at Denver Broncos (6-9)
Line: Chargers by 7. Total: 43.
Westgate Advance Point Spread: Chargers -5.
Walt’s Calculated Line: Chargers -4.5.
Sunday, Dec 30, 4:25 PM

The Game. Edge: Chargers.

Emmitt on the Brink Season 11 is underway! In Episode 16, will Emmitt defeat the evil statue group, Statue-13? Can Emmitt and friends unmask who Statue-13’s leader is?

SAN ANGELES OFFENSE: It’s amazing how the Broncos’ defense has fallen apart without Chris Harris. Denver hasn’t been able to stop opposing passing attacks without Harris, as Derek Carr and Baker Mayfield have torched them in the past two weeks. If the Broncos had issues with a skittish passer and a rookie, how are they going to contain Philip Rivers?

Keenan Allen is obviously the greatest beneficiary of Harris’ absence. Harris would be able to limit Allen, but the Broncos don’t have anyone else who can slow him down. He and Mike Williams should both have strong performances.

Meanwhile, Melvin Gordon is back from injury. He didn’t handle a full workload against the Ravens, as he touched the ball only 15 times. If the Chargers need to win this game – more on this in a bit – I imagine Gordon will receive 20-plus touches. If so, Gordon will dominate; the Broncos have been worse against the run lately, as they even allowed Doug Martin to rush for 100 yards this past Monday night.

DENVER OFFENSE: It’s very clear that the Broncos will be targeting a quarterback this offseason, whether it’s through free agency or the 2019 NFL Draft. Case Keenum has been a huge disappointment after signing a 2-year, $36 million contract last spring. Keenum spent most of Monday night sailing helpless passes over his receivers’ heads in a sad display.

The fact that Keenum couldn’t move the ball against Oakland’s horrible defense, or the week before versus the Denzel Ward-less Browns, does not bode well for him in this matchup. The Chargers have a stellar secondary, which is aided by one of the best edge rushes in the NFL. Joey Bosa and Melvin Ingram will put immense pressure on Keenum, which could force some turnovers.

While the Chargers are prolific versus the pass, they have trouble against the run because of injuries to their defensive line and linebacking corps. This would ordinarily be a problem against Denver, but Phillip Lindsay is out with an injury. Royce Freeman is not nearly as talented, so he’ll have trouble exploiting this matchup.

RECAP: I’d love the Chargers under normal circumstances. They’re seeking revenge against the Broncos, who won’t be playing hard for their lame-duck coach. Vance Joseph is as good as gone, so the Denver players won’t be trying hard for him. This should be a blowout.

Unfortunately, the Chargers may sit their starters in the second half. This game will mean nothing to them if the Chiefs are way ahead of the Raiders, which is a very realistic possibility. If it’s halftime, and Anthony Lynn sees that the Chiefs are up by three-plus touchdowns, he may pull Rivers, Gordon, Allen and other significant players in an attempt to get them some rest for next week’s playoff game. Call me crazy, but I don’t want to rely on the Chargers covering this spread if Geno Smith is quarterbacking them in the second half!

I’m still going to side with the Chargers, but the unfortunate circumstances make betting this game very difficult.

THURSDAY THOUGHTS: Again, there’s a chance the Chargers could sit their starters if the Chiefs are up big early, and we have no history of seeing how Anthony Lynn reacts in meaningless games. That makes handicapping this game very difficult. If anything, the first-quarter line on the Chargers could hit.

SATURDAY NOTES: Again, I can’t advocate betting this game. The Chargers could rest everyone in the second half, yet that might be enough to beat a Denver team that won’t play hard for its lame-duck coach.

SUNDAY MORNING NOTES: I’m not betting this game, and it doesn’t appear the sharps are either. The public is all over the Chargers, and they could have the right side. Then again, they might be rooting in Geno Smith in the second half!

FINAL THOUGHTS: This is another difficult game because we don’t know what’ll happen with the Chargers starters once the Chiefs are up big. I’d still bet San Angeles if I had to though.

The Psychology. Edge: Chargers.

The Broncos are not going to play hard for their lame-duck coach.

The Vegas. Edge: Broncos.

No surprise here.

Percentage of money on San Angeles: 72% (10,000 bets)

The Trends. Edge: Broncos.

History: Broncos have won 11 of the last 14 meetings.

Broncos are 22-11 ATS as home underdogs since 1991.

Opening Line: Chargers -6.5.

Opening Total: 41.5.

Weather: Cloudy, 50 degrees. Light wind.

Week 17 NFL Pick: Chargers 27, Broncos 17
Chargers -7 (0 Units) — Correct; $0
Over 43 (0 Units) — Incorrect; $0
Chargers 23, Broncos 9

Arizona Cardinals (3-12) at Seattle Seahawks (9-6)
Line: Seahawks by 14. Total: 39.
Westgate Advance Point Spread: Seahawks -10.5.
Walt’s Calculated Line: Seahawks -16.5.
Sunday, Dec 30, 4:25 PM

The Game. Edge: Seahawks.

A reminder that Jerks of the Week for this week is up, so just click the link. This week’s jerks entry is Dairy Queen and Cold Stone Creamery.

SEATTLE OFFENSE: There’s been some question as to whether or not the Seahawks will rest their starters because they’re stuck as either the fifth or sixth seed. They won’t know for sure prior to kickoff. However, there are two reasons to believe that the Seahawks won’t rest anyone. First, Pete Carroll talked about how much he hates resting starters, as it ruins momentum. Carroll is a big believer in competition, which is why he’s been reluctant to sit starters in the past. Second, the fifth seed is much more appealing than the sixth seed. The No. 5 seed will get to play Dallas in the first round, and the Seahawks have beaten the Cowboys this year. The sixth seed will have to play on the road against either the Rams or Bears, both of whom Seattle has lost to this year.

With that in mind, the Seahawks should be able to score at will against the Cardinals. Arizona’s defense is absolutely atrocious against the run, as we saw last week when C.J. Anderson trampled them. The Seahawks have been running the ball much better lately with Chris Carson, and he should continue to dominate the opposition.

Meanwhile, the Cardinals are a lot better against the pass. You can say that would be the case by default, but they have some nice players in the secondary, as well as Chandler Jones to rush the passer. Patrick Peterson is terrific, but we saw the problems with Arizona’s secondary otherwise last week. The other cornerbacks aren’t very good, so while Peterson shut down Cooks, Jared Goff aired the ball out to Robert Woods, who had a big game. I imagine that Peterson will erase one of Doug Baldwin or Tyler Lockett, but Russell Wilson will be able to connect with his other targets frequently. Wilson will also pick up big chunks of yardage with his legs. The Cardinals will realize how much they miss injured top linebacker Josh Bynes while trying to slow down Wilson.

ARIZONA OFFENSE: The Seahawks don’t have a great pass rush, but they have some good players up front who have dominated against poor blocking units this year. The Cardinals’ line certainly qualifies as one. In fact, they have the worst offensive line in the NFL, and I don’t think that’s even up for debate.

I wasn’t a fan of Josh Rosen prior to the 2018 NFL Draft, but I’ll acknowledge that it’s been impossible to evaluate him. He has absolutely no chance behind his line. He’ll take plenty of sacks in this game, and he won’t have much success throwing into a secondary that has two quality safeties. The Seattle corners aren’t very good, but aside from Larry Fitzgerald, the Cardinals don’t have the talent to expose this liability.

It would help Rosen if the Cardinals could run the ball, but David Johnson doesn’t have the blocking to do that. The Seahawks also figure to be better against the run going forward with talented linebacker K.J. Wright back in the lineup following his lengthy absence.

RECAP: I believe Carroll will play Wilson and the rest of his starters for at least three quarters. I’d say he’d keep them on the field for the entire game, but I anticipate the Seahawks being up by three or more touchdowns entering the final 15 minutes.

Obviously, I love the Seahawks. Not only do they have great matchup edges, they also have the check mark for motivation, as the Cardinals won’t try hard for lame-duck coach Steve Wilks. This game won’t be close.

There’s no spread posted, but assuming it’s not out of control, I’m going to bet very heavily on the Seahawks. This could be as high as a five-unit wager. Check back for updates or follow me @walterfootball for updates.

THURSDAY THOUGHTS: This spread opened -13.5, which still doesn’t seem high enough. Pete Carroll plays his starters and will want to avoid the Bears/Rams in Round 1. I’m going to list this at four units for the time being.

SATURDAY NOTES: This line doesn’t appear to be moving upward, so I would wait around to get something more favorable. Maybe we’ll see a -13 -105 prior to kickoff.

SUNDAY MORNING NOTES: Ugh, so much for that -13 -105. This line shot up to -14 with the public coming in on Seattle. I don’t think this line moves past -14 because the books would risk a middle, so I think it’s worth waiting.

FINAL THOUGHTS: As expected, this line didn’t move past -14. It’s a shame we missed out on -13, but I don’t think it’ll matter (famous last words.) I’m still on Seattle for four units.

The Psychology. Edge: Seahawks.

The Cardinals are not going to play hard for their lame-duck coach.

The Vegas. Edge: Cardinals.
Slight lean on the Seahawks.

Percentage of money on Seattle: 62% (6,000 bets)

The Trends. Edge: Seahawks.

History: Road team has won the past 7 meetings, excluding a 2016 tie.

Seahawks are 28-13 ATS in Week 11 or later since 2013.

Seahawks are 47-27 ATS as home favorites since 2007.

Opening Line: Seahawks -13.5.

Opening Total: 40.

Weather: Cloudy, 43 degrees. Light wind.

Week 17 NFL Pick: Seahawks 31, Cardinals 7
Seahawks -14 (4 Units) – any sportsbook — Incorrect; -$440
Under 39 (0 Units) — Incorrect; $0
Seahawks 27, Cardinals 24

San Francisco 49ers (4-11) at Los Angeles Rams (12-3)
Line: Rams by 10.5. Total: 49.
Westgate Advance Point Spread: Rams -9.
Walt’s Calculated Line: Rams -10.
Sunday, Dec 30, 4:25 PM

The Game. Edge: .

I’m going to devote this section to Ross Avila. If this is your first time reading this, and you don’t know who Ross is, he’s a douche who harassed me on Facebook about my picks all last year. Here are some of the things he said:

He wrote this to me during the Patriots-Falcons Super Bowl, where he bragged about being right about Atlanta. Oops.

Ross constantly embarrassed himself throughout the year, including when he posted this, suggesting that he sold picks to people:

I eventually unfriended Ross. He started going after women on my Facebook page, including my then-fiancee. I warned him, and he didn’t listen, so I unfriended him.

Because I was a big part of Ross’ life, he sent me countless messages. I’ve shown you some already. Check this one out:

And there it is. Ross “deactavated” Facebook, and I haven’t heard from him since. I imagine he’ll reach out to me eventually because he has no life. And I imagine he’s been reading this section the entire year. So, no, Ross, I will not hire you. Go f**k yourself.

LOS ANGELES OFFENSE: The Rams can’t rest their starters because they have something to play for. If they lose this game, and Chicago beats Minnesota, they’ll lose control of the No. 2 seed in the NFC, costing them a first-round bye. It would also mean that they’d have to play the Bears in Chicago again in Round 2 if they were to defeat the No. 6 seed in the opening round.

Despite this, it doesn’t sound like Todd Gurley is a lock to play. Reports indicate that he could sit out again, meaning C.J. Anderson would draw another start. Anderson trampled the Cardinals last week, but this wasn’t too much of a surprise, given that the Cardinals entered the game with a bottom-10 DVOA ranking against the run. The 49ers, on the other hand, are 12th in that regard. Stopping Gurley would be an issue because of his supreme talent, but they should be able to limit Anderson, who didn’t have a job for a long time for a reason.

The 49ers are their weakest on this side of the ball in the secondary. Their cornerbacks, outside of Richard Sherman, are atrocious. Sherman will be able to limit Brandin Cooks when the two line up against each other – Sherman doesn’t travel – but Jared Goff will be able to continue to throw strikes to Robert Woods. The 49ers don’t have anyone to defend Woods, so I expect the former Trojan to have a big performance.

SAN FRANCISCO OFFENSE: Nick Mullens has performed relatively well since taking over as the starter over C.J. Beathard. He’s very accurate and should be able to connect with his receivers, given that the Rams have some issues in their secondary. The Rams are eighth in pass defense DVOA, but that number is enhanced by a couple of things. The first is their schedule; they’ve battled some poor quarterbacks. The second is their pass rush. They can really obliterate quarterbacks who are protected poorly. Mullens is not, as San Francisco has one of the better offensive lines in the NFL.

Mullens has some bad news, however, as his favorite receiver, Dante Pettis, is out for this game. It’s a shame for Mullens, as he and Pettis were really clicking. However, he can still throw to George Kittle, which is obviously a great thing because the Rams are not very good at defending tight ends. Kittle had 98 yards and a touchdown against the Rams back in Week 7, and that was with Beathard throwing the ball to him.

Matt Breida is also out, so he won’t be able to take advantage of the Rams’ 28th-ranked run defense. However, Jeff Wilson Jr. has performed well in Breida’s absence, so I imagine he’ll be able to put together a solid performance behind his stout offensive line.

RECAP: As with the Bears-Vikings contest, this game is very tricky to handicap. If the Vikings are way ahead of the Bears, the Rams may opt to rest their starters in the fourth quarter. This could allow the 49ers to get the back-door cover if they aren’t getting blown out.

There’s a good chance these teams will be relatively close with one another, especially if Gurley is out. As mentioned, Anderson won’t run as well as he did versus Arizona, while Mullens has played well for the most part.

I’m taking the 49ers to cover, but I’m not going to be betting them. This spread is exactly what it should be, and I don’t see any edges for either team anywhere, outside of the Rams possibly resting everyone in the fourth quarter.

THURSDAY THOUGHTS: I thought about betting the 49ers, but I don’t like that Nick Mullens won’t have Dante Pettis at his disposal. Pettis has been terrific down the stretch, and he’s served as Mullens’ favorite receiver.

SATURDAY NOTES: Nick Mullens will be missing his top two receivers, Dante Pettis and Marquise Goodwin. That’s a bummer, though the Rams won’t have Todd Gurley. The 49ers stop the run well, so they should be able to hang around. Unfortunately, their depleted receiving corps makes it difficult to bet them.

SUNDAY MORNING NOTES: Sharp money is on the Rams. My money is not on this game. I’d bet the 49ers if they had one of their starting receivers available.

FINAL THOUGHTS: The pros were on the Rams at -10, but not at -10.5. Ten is a third-tier key number, so that would explain why. I still think the 49ers are the right side, but I don’t feel strongly about it at all.

The Psychology. Edge: None.
No edge found.

The Vegas. Edge: 49ers.

No surprise where the action is going.

Percentage of money on Los Angeles: 68% (13,000 bets)

The Trends. Edge: None.

History: 49ers have won 18 of the last 26 meetings, excluding the 2012 tie.

Opening Line: Rams -9.5.

Opening Total: 50.5.

Weather: Sunny, 65 degrees. Light wind.

Week 17 NFL Pick: Rams 31, 49ers 24
49ers +10.5 (0 Units) — Incorrect; $0
Over 49 (0 Units) — Correct; $0
Rams 48, 49ers 32

Indianapolis Colts (9-6) at Tennessee Titans (9-6)
Line: Colts by 3. Total: 44.
Westgate Advance Point Spread: Colts -2.5.
Walt’s Calculated Line: Titans -1.5 (Mariota).
Sunday, Dec 30, 8:20 PM

The Game. Edge: TBA.

This week on NBC, we’re going to have Al Michaels and Cris Collinsworth calling the shots instead the great preseason homers like Kevin Reilly, Ron Wolfley and Don Tollefson, inept ESPN guys Emmitt, Herman Edwards, and aloof people like Dan Fouts and Jay Cutler. Here’s what it would sound like if these seven dudes (and some special guests) were calling this game:

Reilly: Welcome to the city of Tennessee, where the Indiana Colts take on the Tennessee Tigers. Guys, enough about this stupid game. I need your help. The Blemmys will soon be here, which means I’m going to have to give a speech for winning the award for best sportscaster. Will you guys help me with my speech?

Emmitt: Peach, if you do not brains, I mean, minds, we tryin’ to watch football game between the team that play in this game. You not talking about the games, so I gonna try. Whomeverm win the game gonna be the team that score the most point.

Reilly: I didn’t say, peach, Emmitt! I said speech. What do you think of this opening, guys? “Hi, I’m Kevin Reilly, and I want to thank everyone for helping me win the Blemmy for the best sports broadcaster. I’d especially like to thank mother. If she let me talk to girls at the young age of 67, I wouldn’t have been able to win this award.”

Tollefson: Kevin, that’s pathetic. I can’t believe you’re not even allowed to talk to girls yet. You’re sixty-f***ing-seven! When will you be able to talk to women? I couldn’t imagine not talking to women. If I couldn’t talk to women, how could I tell them to cook and clean naked for me?

Reilly: Don, you’re just a hater because I beat you fair and square for the award. Anyway, the next part is this: “Ever since I was a young boy, I used to collect Nick Foles posters and bobblehead dolls. These are my most precious possessions. They helped me win the Blemmy for best broadcaster.”

Wolfley: KEVIN, I WOULD NOT BE SO QUICK TO THANK DOLLS. I WAS WATCHING A REAL-LIFE DOCUMENTARY ONCE WHERE A DOLL STARTED KILLING PEOPLE. I BELIEVE THIS REAL-LIFE DOCUMENTARY WAS CALLED CHUCKY.

Fouts: And here’s what he means by real life. There are two types of lifes. One is real life. The other is fake life. Real life is real life, and not fake life, while fake life is fake life, and not real life. If this is confusing to all of you, believe me, it took me years to master the difference between the two. Here’s a trick I learned. When trying to decide the difference between real life and fake life, stick out your hands with your thumb being perpendicular to your other fingers. If the one hand looks like the number “L,” then you know it’s the left- uhh- whoops, I think I’m confusing things.

Reilly: That’s because you’re an idiot! Let’s see what Herm has to say, oh wait, Herm’s probably freezing to death in an abandoned warehouse somewhere, buhahahaha! Let’s go to the sidelines. What do you think about my speech so far, Kareem?

Kareem Hunt: Could use some more gore and blood, Kevin! I’d include some kicking and punching, Kevin.

Reilly: OK, I can talk about how mother took me to karate lessons when I was a boy. I beat up all the other little kids there with my fierce kicks and punches. The sensi didn’t seem too pleased that I was 55, but what mother says goes, right new daddy?

Cutler: Huh? You say something?

Reilly: New daddy, listen to the next part about my speech: “I’d like to thank new daddy Jay Cutler as well. New daddy sometimes just stares at the wall with his mouth open for hours on end, but I feel safe around my new daddy because he’ll protect me from all the evil in the world, like girls, Herm Edwards and people who want to steal my Nick Foles posters and bobblehead dolls.” What do you think about that, new daddy?

Cutler: Zzzzzzzz…

Reilly: New daaaaaddddddddyyyyyy!!!

Charles Davis: Kevin, don’t worry, Kevin, I thought it was a great speech, Kevin. Let’s talk about other great speeches throughout history and compare your speech, Kevin. Let’s talk about the I Have a Dream speech by Martin Luther King Jr., Kevin. Yours is better than that, Kevin. How about the Gettysburg Address by Abraham Lincoln, Kevin? Much better than that, Kevin. Let’s chat about Infamy Speech by Franklin Roosevelt, Kevin. Yours outclasses that, Kevin. Why not discuss I Am Prepared to Die by Nelson Mandela, Kevin? Yours is far superior, Kevin. Let’s think of a speech that’s better than yours, Kevin. Oh wait, we can’t Kevin. Because you have the best speech, Kevin.

Reilly: Yay, I love you Charles Davis, even more than new daddy! I am going to blow people away with this speech!

Charles Davis (inaudibly): Yes, Kevin, someone will be blown away by your speech, Kevin, but it won’t be the audience, Kevin. Rather, Kevin, it will you, Kevin, for that will be the moment of your downfall, Kevin, muhahaha, Kevin.

Meanwhile, in an abandoned warehouse in North Philly…

Herm: SO COLD! SO COLD! SO COLD! SO COLD! SO COLD! HERM’S TOO COLD TO THINK OF A SYNONYM OF COLD! HOW ABOUT- COLD- UHH- COLD- UHH- COLD- uhh… ummm…

TENNESSEE OFFENSE: Marcus Mariota suffered yet another injury last week. He banged his elbow while falling to the ground, then left the game for good. It was announced that he has a stinger, but I’ve never heard of a stinger in the elbow. My skepticism might be warranted, as the Titans signed Austin Davis to the roster to play behind Blaine Gabbert in the event that Mariota won’t suit up.

Having Gabbert start in this game would be a disaster. The Colts have one of the top run defenses in the NFL, and they just put the clamps on Saquon Barkley, so Derrick Henry will be stymied. That means Tennessee will have to throw on Indianapolis to be successful. Mariota could do that, as long as he’s close to 100 percent.

Gabbert? I have my doubts. Gabbert has been one of the worst quarterbacks in the NFL over the past few years. He led the Titans to victory against the Redskins this past Saturday, but the Colts don’t have locker rook malcontents like D.J. Swearinger weighing down the team.

INDIANAPOLIS OFFENSE: Andrew Luck has never lost to Mariota, and there’s a reason for that. Tennessee, over the years, have been built to stop the run. Its secondary hasn’t been very good, and it recently took a big hit by losing slot cornerback Logan Ryan.

It goes without saying that this is going to be a huge problem in this game. Luck, who engineered a terrific comeback in the second half last week, will be able to exploit this liability. He already had a big edge against Tennessee’s secondary, and now the matchup is even more favorable.

The Titans are normally great against the run, but that may not be the case in this game. That’s because their best defensive lineman, Jurrell Casey, won’t play Sunday night. Marlon Mack has enjoyed some positive performances lately, so this could be another one with Casey out of the lineup.

RECAP: There’s no line on this game because of Mariota’s status. The advance spread on this contest was Indianapolis -2.5, and that was obviously made with Mariota in mind. If Gabbert gets the nod, the Colts could be favored by closer to a touchdown.

Either way, I’m going to be on Indianapolis. The Colts dominate the Titans. As mentioned, Luck has never lost to Mariota, and that’s because Indianapolis matches up so well versus Tennessee.

We’ll have to wait and see what the spread is, but I imagine that I’ll be on the Colts for a couple of units. Check back for updates or follow me @walterfootball for updates.

THURSDAY THOUGHTS: Argh, had I seen this line open at -2.5, I would’ve done the same trick last week in the Atlanta-Carolina game where I bet the team playing against quarterback uncertainty heavily and then tried to hedge based on the news. I would’ve liked the Colts at -2.5, but a torrent of public money has pushed this to -3.5. There’s been a bit of buy-back from the sharps on Tennessee +3.5. Let’s wait until the Marcus Mariota news to figure out what we’re going to do.

SATURDAY NOTES: We still have no news on Marcus Mariota. We do, however, have some other injury news. Colts center Ryan Kelly is out. Indianapolis’ offense has not been the same without him, so I’m less inclined to bet this game heavily.

SUNDAY MORNING NOTES: I’m posting this early for some news that broke Saturday night. Marcus Mariota will warm up prior to kickoff, but he has yet to be cleared. He could play, but he won’t be 100 percent if he does. Here’s the plan: I’m going to lock in the Colts -3 -115 right now for two units. If Mariota plays, that’s an OK bet I’m not too crazy about. But if Mariota sits, we’ll have struck gold with -3 -115 versus Blaine Gabbert. I think it’s worth risking two units for the upside of winning free money.

SUNDAY MORNING NOTES: YES!!!! Marcus Mariota is likely out, so we have -3 -115 versus Blaine Gabbert. I feel bad for not betting more on this, but I didn’t want to go too heavy on the Colts if Mariota were playing.

FINAL THOUGHTS: Marcus Mariota is indeed out. This line has risen to -5.5. I would bet Indianapolis at -5.5 for two units had I not taken them at -3 -115 to begin with. Had I known Blaine Gabbert would start, I would’ve wagered four or five units on the Colts at -3.

The Psychology. Edge: None.
No edge found.

The Vegas. Edge: Titans.

Tons of action on the Colts.

Percentage of money on Indianapolis: 76% (17,000 bets)

The Trends. Edge: Colts.

History: Colts have won 25 of the last 30 meetings.

Andrew Luck is 18-9 ATS against divisional opponents.

Opening Line: Colts -2.5.

Opening Total: 44.

Weather: Cloudy, 48 degrees. Light wind.

Week 17 NFL Pick: Colts 27, Titans 20
Colts -3 -115 (2 Units) – BetUS/Bookmaker/TopBet — Correct; +$200
Over 44 (0 Units) — Correct; $0
Colts 33, Titans 17

Week 17 NFL Picks – Early Games
Miami at Buffalo, Detroit at Green Bay, NY Jets at New England, Carolina at New Orleans, Dallas at NY Giants, Atlanta at Tampa Bay, Jacksonville at Houston

Prop/Teaser/Parlay Picks
A list of some of my favorite team/player prop picks this week
(Offense & defensive ROY picks to be counted whenever winners are announced.) Picks carried over on a week-to-week basis will be in black.

No teasers yet. Considering Green Bay -1.5, but can’t find a second leg just yet.

NFL Picks - Dec. 13

2025 NFL Mock Draft - Dec. 11

NFL Power Rankings - Dec. 9

2026 NFL Mock Draft - Nov. 29

Fantasy Football Rankings - Sept. 4

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2007 Season 2-3 Unit NFL Picks: 83-59-5, 58.5% (+$4,110)
2008 Season 2-3 Unit NFL Picks: 44-57-3, 43.6% (-$3,510)
2009 Season 2-3 Unit NFL Picks: 49-35-3, 58.3% (+$2,260)
2010 Season 2-3 Unit NFL Picks: 51-38-4, 57.3% (+$3,180)
2011 Season 2-3 Unit NFL Picks: 44-51-3, 46.3% (-$2,715)
2012 Season 2-3 Unit NFL Picks: 45-50-2, 47.4% (-$2,130)
2013 Season 2-3 Unit NFL Picks: 38-42, 47.5% (-$2,890)
2015 Season 2-3 Unit NFL Picks: 47-44-1, 51.6% (-$820)
2016 Season 2-3 Unit NFL Picks: 42-35-3, 54.5% (+$475)
2017 Season 2-3 Unit NFL Picks: 32-40-3, 43.8% (-$2,395)
2018 Season 2-3 Unit NFL Picks: 52-41-2, 55.9% (+$2,670)
2019 Season 2-3 Unit NFL Picks: 44-36-2, 55.0% (+$655)
2020 Season 2-3 Unit NFL Picks: 47-43-3, 52.2% (-$1,965)
2021 Season 2-3 Unit NFL Picks: 50-50, 50.0% (-$1,570)
2022 Season 2-3 Unit NFL Picks: 56-44-2, 56.0% (+$1,860)
2023 Season 2-3 Unit NFL Picks: 44-40-3, 52.4% (+$285)

2002 Season 4-5 Unit NFL Picks: 11-12 (47.8%)
2003 Season 4-5 Unit NFL Picks: 16-13-1 (55.2%)
2004 Season 4-5 Unit NFL Picks: 18-11 (62.1%)
2005 Season 4-5 Unit NFL Picks: 25-22-1 (53.2%)
2006 Season 4-5 Unit NFL Picks: 21-29-1 (42.0%)
2007 Season 4-5 Unit NFL Picks: 35-30-2, 53.8% (+$420)
2008 Season 4-5 Unit NFL Picks: 39-26-2, 60.0% (+$4,055)
2009 Season 4-5 Unit NFL Picks: 29-26, 52.7% (+$330)
2010 Season 4-5 Unit NFL Picks: 32-22, 59.3% (+$4,790)
2011 Season 4-5 Unit NFL Picks: 14-14, 50.0% (-$1,260)
2012 Season 4-5 Unit NFL Picks: 14-21, 40.0% (-$3,650)
2013 Season 4-5 Unit NFL Picks: 17-9-3, 65.4% (+$2,970)
2015 Season 4-5 Unit NFL Picks: 17-16-2, 51.5% (-$1,120)
2016 Season 4-5 Unit NFL Picks: 21-22-5, 48.8% (-$1,465)
2017 Season 4-5 Unit NFL Picks: 20-22-1, 47.6% (-$1,595)
2018 Season 4-5 Unit NFL Picks: 27-32-1, 45.8% (-$4,735)
2019 Season 4-5 Unit NFL Picks: 37-27-2, 57.8% (+$2,185)
2020 Season 4-5 Unit NFL Picks: 37-22-1, 62.7% (+$5,515)
2021 Season 4-5 Unit NFL Picks: 32-32-1, 50.0% (-$725)
2022 Season 4-5 Unit NFL Picks: 41-30-1, 57.8% (+$3,725)
2023 Season 4-5 Unit NFL Picks: 32-27-1, 54.2% (-$1,310)

2001 Season Over-Under: 3-2 (60.0%)
2002 Season Over-Under: 121-91-3 (57.1%)
2003 Season Over-Under: 126-132-2 (48.8%)
2004 Season Over-Under: 139-124-4 (52.9%)
2005 Season Over-Under: 117-145-4 (44.7%)
2006 Season Over-Under: 129-132-5 (49.4%)
2007 Season Over-Under: 136-145-3, 48.4% (-$1,900)
2008 Season Over-Under: 137-125-6, 52.3% (+$860)
2009 Season Over-Under: 128-135-4, 48.7% (-$3,195)
2010 Season Over-Under: 128-135-5, 48.7% (-$5)
2011 Season Over-Under: 131-131-5, 50.0% (+$135)
2012 Season Over-Under: 125-121-5, 50.8% (+$30)
2013 Season Over-Under: 132-130-5, 50.4% (-$340)
2015 Season Over-Under: 143-119-5, 54.6% ($0)
2016 Season Over-Under: 123-141-1, 46.6% (+$95)
2017 Season Over-Under: 136-139-2, 49.5% (+$640)
2018 Season Over-Under: 118-128-3, 48.0% (-$225)
2019 Season Over-Under: 126-133-4, 48.6% (-$50)
2020 Season Over-Under: 141-122-6, 53.6% ($0)
2021 Season Over-Under: 132-151-3, 46.6% ($0)
2022 Season Over-Under: 133-149-2, 47.2% (-$225)
2023 Season Over-Under: 145-135-3, 51.8% (+$200)

2007 Season Prop/ML/Teaser/Parlay Picks: +$1,035
2008 Season Prop/ML/Teaser/Parlay Picks: +$1,775
2009 Season Prop/ML/Teaser/Parlay Picks: +$865
2010 Season Prop/ML/Teaser/Parlay Picks: -$200
2011 Season Prop/ML/Teaser/Parlay Picks: +$590
2012 Season Prop/ML/Teaser/Parlay Picks: -$1,685
2013 Season Prop/ML/Teaser/Parlay Picks: +$2,245
2015 Season Prop/ML/Teaser/Parlay Picks: -$855
2016 Season Prop/ML/Teaser/Parlay Picks: -$275
2017 Season Prop/ML/Teaser/Parlay Picks: -$510
2018 Season Prop/ML/Teaser/Parlay Picks: +$1,495
2019 Season Prop/ML/Teaser/Parlay Picks: -$1,715
2020 Season Prop/ML/Teaser/Parlay Picks: +$4,975
2021 Season Prop/ML/Teaser/Parlay Picks: +$3,455
2022 Season Prop/ML/Teaser/Parlay Picks: +$5,720
2023 Season Prop/ML/Teaser/Parlay Picks: -$2,565

2006 NFL Picks of the Month: 3-3 (50%)
2007 NFL Picks of the Month: 3-3, 50.0% (-$400)
2008 NFL Picks of the Month: 6-1, 85.7% (+$3,720)
2009 NFL Picks of the Month: 3-2, 60.0% (+$640)
2010 NFL Picks of the Month: 2-4, 33.3% (-$1,810)
2011 NFL Picks of the Month: 5-2, 71.4% (+$1,870)
2012 NFL Picks of the Month: 3-2, 60.0% (+$560)
2013 NFL Picks of the Month: 6-0, 100% (+$3,900)
2014 NFL Picks of the Month: 2-4, 33.3% (-$1,350)
2015 NFL Picks of the Month: 3-3, 50.0% (-$100)
2016 NFL Picks of the Month: 5-1, 83.3% (+$2,780)
2017 NFL Picks of the Month: 4-2, 66.7% (+$1,040)
2018 NFL Picks of the Month: 4-3, 57.1% (-$640)
2019 NFL Picks of the Month: 3-3-1, 50.0% (-$625)
2020 NFL Picks of the Month: 3-2, 60.0% (+$665)
2021 NFL Picks of the Month: 2-3, 40.0% (-$920)
2022 NFL Picks of the Month: 3-4, 42.9% (-$1,615)
2023 NFL Picks of the Month: 2-5, 28.6% (-$2,550)

Career NFL Picks Against The Spread: 3,530-3,254-204, 52.0% (+$17,530)
Career 2-3 Unit NFL Picks: 1,132-1,020-57 (52.6%)
Career 4-5 Unit NFL Picks: 577-506-25 (53.3%)
Career Over-Under: 2,960-2,937-78 (50.2%)
Career Second-Half NFL Picks: 23-16-1 (59.0%)
Career NFL Picks of the Month: 47-37-1 (56.0%)

My Team-by-Team ATS Record
This section shows how well I do when picking each team this year. The purpose is to see how well I read each team. Pushes are not displayed. Winning/losing streak in parentheses.

Cowboys: 6-6	Bears: 5-7	Bucs: 8-5	49ers: 8-5
Eagles: 7-6	Lions: 10-3	Falcons: 7-6	Cardinals: 9-4
Giants: 4-8	Packers: 9-3	Panthers: 5-8	Rams: 7-6
Redskins: 6-6	Vikings: 5-7	Saints: 6-7	Seahawks: 7-5

Bills: 5-8	Bengals: 3-10	Colts: 7-6	Broncos: 9-4
Dolphins: 5-8	Browns: 5-8	Jaguars: 4-7	Chargers: 7-5
Jets: 7-6	Ravens: 6-6	Texans: 5-7	Chiefs: 5-7
Patriots: 7-4	Steelers: 6-7	Titans: 8-4	Raiders: 7-6

Divisional: 27-34 (2011-23: 608-561)	2x Game Edge: 23-19 (2011-23: 401-387)	2x Motivation Edge: 38-31 (2011-23: 510-441)	2x Spread Edge: 25-36 (2011-23: 239-211)
2x Vegas Edge: 44-57 (2011-23: 448-446)	2x Trend Edge: 14-9 (2011-23: 321-293)	Double Edge: 17-17 (2011-23: 207-185)	Triple Edge: 4-9 (2011-23: 33-37)