NFL Picks Against the Spread: Week 9, 2016

NFL Picks (Preseason 2016): 12-7-1 (+$1,290)
NFL Picks (Week 1, 2016): 13-3 (+$1,735) full review
NFL Picks (Week 2, 2016): 9-7 (-$430) full review
NFL Picks (Week 3, 2016): 7-7-2 (+$880) full review
NFL Picks (Week 4, 2016): 7-8 (-$70) full review
NFL Picks (Week 5, 2016): 6-7-1 (+$115) full review
NFL Picks (Week 6, 2016): 7-7-1 (+$515) full review
NFL Picks (Week 7, 2016): 11-4 (+$1,560) full review
NFL Picks (Week 8, 2016): 8-4-1 (-$60) full review

NFL Picks (2016): 80-54-6 (+$5,535)
NFL Picks (2015): 133-138-10 (-$2,360)
NFL Picks (2014): 143-133-7 (-$1,885)
NFL Picks (2013): 144-131-8 (+$5,580)
NFL Picks (2012): 130-145-8 (-$5,760)
NFL Picks (2011): 137-133-12 (-$1,925)
NFL Picks (2010): 144-131-8 (+$6,080)
NFL Picks (2009): 151-124-9 (+$3,370)
NFL Picks (2008): 136-125-6 (+$4,330)
If you don’t quite understand the line, total or anything else, go to my Sports Betting FAQ.

Vegas betting action updated Nov. 7, 6:35 p.m. ET. Follow @walterfootball for updates.

Go to Week 9 NFL Picks – Late Games

Atlanta Falcons (5-3) at Tampa Bay Buccaneers (3-4)
Line: Falcons by 4.5. Total: 51.
Las Vegas Hilton Advance Point Spread: Falcons -2.
Walt’s Calculated Line: Falcons -3.
Thursday, Nov 3, 8:25 PM
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The Game. Edge: Falcons.

WEEK 8 RECAP: I was in a dark place Sunday night, and I’m blaming Mike McCoy and his horrid play-calling. My top pick, Chargers +4, lost partly because San Diego refused to run the ball at least once at the 2-yard line when Melvin Gordon had been terrific all afternoon. It made absolutely no sense, and the four incomplete Philip Rivers passes crushed my soul. His tipped pass interceptions already had me in a bad mood, so I didn’t feel like talking to anyone for a while. I’m better now, I think.

I finished 8-4-1, but for -$60 because of the San Diego loss. I tried to inch back into the black with a half-unit wager on the Vikings on Monday night, but their defense came dressed for Halloween like the Indianapolis Colts, and that didn’t quite pan out.

ATLANTA OFFENSE: I’m going to essentially write the same thing about Tampa’s defense that I discussed in the Week 8 NFL picks write-up, and that would be that the Buccaneer safeties won’t be able to handle the opposing passing attack. Tampa has the worst safeties in the NFL, which would explain how Derek Carr was able to set a franchise record for passing yards. Matt Ryan might be able to do the same thing.

The one thing that could restrict Ryan just a bit, however, is that Julio Jones isn’t completely healthy. Jones banged his knee in the first quarter of the Green Bay game and wasn’t quite himself the rest of the way. He’s only had three days to recover, so it’s reasonable to expect him not to be 100 percent again. Still, Ryan proved that he can still torch a bad secondary with Mohamed Sanu and Taylor Gabriel, and that’s exactly what he’ll do.

Something the Falcons won’t do well is establish the run. The Buccaneers sell out versus the rush, and Devonta Freeman doesn’t appear to be completely healthy either because of a hip pointer. I would still expect Freeman to pick up some chunks of yardage as a receiver, however, so the Buccaneers may not have success in terms of attempting to force many punts.

TAMPA BAY OFFENSE: The Raiders struggled to defend the pass early in the year, but they’ve improved tremendously in that regard in recent weeks. Still, it doesn’t excuse Jameis Winston being so inaccurate this past Sunday. Winston constantly missed open receivers, and Mike Evans would’ve had a big performance had Winston been more precise. Alas, Evans reeled in just four of his 11 targets for 50 yards.

It’s going to be difficult for Winston to consistently hook up with Evans in this contest, as Evans will see terrific coverage from Desmond Trufant. The other Falcon corners aren’t nearly as talented, so Winston will have to find Russell Shepard and Adam Humphries consistently, and I’m not sure he’ll be able to do that.

The Falcons happen to be somewhere between middling and weak against the run, so it’s unfortunate for Tampa that Jacquizz Rodgers has been ruled out. With Rodgers, Doug Martin and Charles Sims unavailable, the Buccaneers are down to their fourth- and fifth-string running backs in Antone Smith and Peyton Barber. Will they be able to take advantage of Atlanta’s run defense? Smith didn’t look half bad against the Raiders this past week, so perhaps there’s a chance.

RECAP: My rule for Thursday games is to take the better team. The Falcons are superior, so they have to be the pick, right? I thought about it, but then I recalled that the Buccaneers have owned Atlanta recently for some reason. Winston is 3-0 versus the Falcons, which includes a victory in Atlanta this year. It’s possible, however, that the 2015 victories were a byproduct of the Falcons struggling and that the Buccaneers beat the Falcons in Week 1 this season because their defensive coordinator, Mike Smith, used to coach Atlanta. Smith might have some great insight on how to beat his former team.

That said, I was still willing to take the Falcons at -3. The line is now -3.5, however, and that’s a different story. I think there’s a good chance Atlanta wins this contest by exactly a field goal, as Winston could throw a late touchdown to make this result closer than it should have been. Thus, at 3.5, I can make the case for the Buccaneers. Then again, Tampa is coming off an overtime game and could be exhausted, so that is why I’ll side with Atlanta. Either way, I’m not confident at all in this selection, as you can tell, so this is just for picking-pool purposes.

I’ll be posting NFL Picks all day Tuesday. Follow me at @walterfootball for updates.

THURSDAY THOUGHTS: I was wondering when the sharps would jump in on the Buccaneers, and they did at +4. I actually considered changing my pick at +4, but I want to stick with my strategy of taking the better team on Thursday nights. If you do like the Buccaneers, I’d like to point out that you can get +4.5 at Bovada.

FINAL THOUGHTS: I mentioned earlier today that the sharps had bet the Buccaneers +4. Well, it wasn’t an overwhelming amount, as the public betting has drowned that out. This spread is now -4.5, which is way too high. The Buccaneers have owned the Falcons, thanks to Mike Smith. This spread should be -3, and if this game were on a Sunday, I’d be betting the Buccaneers for a couple of units. However, I can’t do that tonight. This is a short work week, which favors the superior squad. Plus, the Buccaneers are coming off a grueling overtime game and somehow have to recover on just three days of rest. I’m picking Atlanta, but I can’t recommend either side as a wager.

The Psychology. Edge: None.
No edge found.

The Vegas. Edge: Buccaneers.

Everyone and their evil stepsister is betting on the Falcons.

Percentage of money on Atlanta: 83% (22,000 bets)

The Trends. Edge: Falcons.

History: Buccaneers have won the last 3 meetings.

Road Team is 70-41 ATS in Buccaneers games since 2009.

Buccaneers are 16-40 ATS at home in the previous 56 instances.

Buccaneers are 7-19 ATS as a home underdog since 2009.

Opening Line: Falcons -3.

Opening Total: 51.5.

Weather: .

Week 9 NFL Pick: Falcons 27, Buccaneers 22
Falcons -4.5 (0 Units) — Correct; $0
Under 51 (0 Units) — Incorrect; $0
Falcons 43, Buccaneers 28

Jacksonville Jaguars (2-5) at Kansas City Chiefs (5-2)
Line: Chiefs by 7. Total: 43.
Las Vegas Hilton Advance Point Spread: Chiefs -7.
Walt’s Calculated Line: Chiefs -9.5.
Sunday, Nov 6, 1:00 PM
Comment on this game

The Game. Edge: Chiefs.

OVERRATED-UNDERRATED: I posted betting trends and such in this spot over the past couple of years, but I won’t be doing that as much because I’ll be moving away from trends. Instead, I’ll list some underrated observations that the media either isn’t discussing or is misinforming the public about. I think I’ll do this in conjunction with overrated and underrated teams, which I should definitely put more effort into…

Underrated NFL Teams:

Los Angeles Rams: Casual bettors miss injuries to significant role players. Part of the reason for that is ESPN focusing on stars and not spending enough time talking about actual substance. Thus, most people may have missed the fact that the Rams were without two of their defensive studs, Robert Quinn and Michael Brockers, against the Bills. Despite this, Los Angeles and Buffalo were tied at 16 late in the game when Case Keenum lofted a horrible pick-six. Keenum is obviously not any good, but the Rams weren’t themselves because they were missing half of their awesome defensive line. The same thing occurred against the Lions; Quinn was out, and Brockers left the game early. Los Angeles was the better team against the Giants, but just killed itself with dumb mistakes. For that reason, I believe the Rams will provide quality betting opportunities going forward.

Washington Redskins: I listed the Redskins as overrated a couple of weeks ago, but I’m more than willing to admit when I’ve made a mistake. The Redskins are underrated, as evidenced by the fact that many people thought that the Bengals were more than three points better than them on a neutral field. Washington was the superior team in London and should’ve won that contest. The Redskins also should’ve beaten the Lions the week before, but Matt Jones fumbled three times. Washington had some shaky victories earlier in the year, but Kirk Cousins is playing better now, and it can definitely be argued that the Redskins could be 6-2 at the moment.

New York Jets: I can’t believe I’m writing this, but the Jets are underrated. We’ve seen them lose some ugly games earlier in the year, but here’s the thing: Their schedule was absolutely brutal, and most of the teams they’ve lost to are ranked in the top 10. Beginning in Week 3, the Jets lost to the Chiefs, Seahawks, Steelers and Cardinals, and yet they were competitive in three of those contests. I think that’s pretty impressive, and in hindsight, it’s not surprising at all that they’ve begun playing well against lesser competition.

Tennessee Titans: I think we can say that the Titans are slightly underrated. It’s pretty remarkable that they’ve been in every single game this year. They led the Vikings in the opener. They had a chance to beat the Raiders at the end of the game in Week 3. They lost in Houston because of a punt return the following Sunday. They made some mental errors in their loss to the Colts. Tennessee has either won or lost by single digits in every contest this year, and unlike all of the other teams in the AFC South, it actually has an identity. The Titans run the ball well and get to the quarterback effectively with their front seven. They have some glaring issues – poor receivers, struggling secondary – but they do a number of things extremely well.

San Diego Chargers: The Chargers beat the Broncos and Falcons in Weeks 6-7, but it doesn’t seem like the public is giving them the respect they deserve. San Diego has had horrible luck this year and could easily be 6-2, 7-1, or even 8-0 right now. That misfortune continued at Denver, where a couple of tipped passes and bad goal-line play-calling decided the game. San Diego’s defense is much better now with Joey Bosa on the field, as he has been absolutely dominant. I know it might seem strange to praise the defense, given that the Chargers surrendered 30 points to the Falcons, but keep in mind that seven came on a Philip Rivers strip-sack, and Atlanta mustered only three points after halftime. The Chargers limited the Falcons to 6.1 yards per play, which is pretty low considering some of Atlanta’s other results this year. The Broncos, meanwhile, barely did anything offensively outside of a couple of drives.

Overrated NFL Teams:

Oakland Raiders: The Raiders are basically the opposite of the Chargers. They’ve been close in every game, but they’ve just been great in the final two minutes. The question needs to be asked, though: Why are they having so much trouble putting away bad teams like the Saints and sub-par ones like the Titans and Buccaneers? The Raiders did win at Baltimore, but they were outgained by about 150 net yards and lost the yards-per-play battle, 5.2-4.8. The Ravens were a drop away from attempting a field goal to win the game. San Diego, meanwhile, would’ve tied the game had the holder not bobbled the ball. It’s no surprise that the Raiders were blown out by the Chiefs at home, Andy Reid coming off a bye or not. And as for the Tampa game, the Buccaneers would’ve won had they not committed a penalty on fourth down at the very end of regulation. This is pretty telling, too: Save for this past Sunday, the Raiders have been outgained in terms of yards per play in EVERY SINGLE GAME THIS YEAR (including at Jacksonville!)

New York Giants: The Giants definitely do not deserve to have a winning record. They only won in London because the Rams wrecked themselves with dumb mistakes, and they probably wouldn’t have prevailed against Baltimore had the Ravens not lost Jimmy Smith and Terrell Suggs in the second half. Prior to that, the Giants were not competitive against the Vikings or Packers. It would make more sense to me if they were 2-5 right now, as they can’t block, run the ball or get to the quarterback.

Seattle Seahawks: The Seahawks are a good team, but they have some major problems. Their defense hasn’t been the same without Michael Bennett and Kam Chancellor. Their offense, meanwhile, is struggling because of the offensive line and Russell Wilson’s injuries. In past years, Seattle has been able to fix its blocking in the second half of the year, but that may not happen in 2016 because Russell Okung isn’t around anymore. Wilson also used to compensate for the poor line play with his legs, but he can’t scramble because of multiple leg issues.

Houston Texans: The Texans are definitely not a 5-3 team. Not even close. Their victories have all been unimpressive wins against middling or horrid opponents. They trailed the Bears in the third quarter. They struggled to put away the Chiefs and Lions. They needed a punt return touchdown to defeat the Titans, whom they were tied at 20 with at the end of the third quarter. And on a Sunday night, the Colts led by two touchdowns, but blew the lead because of injuries and abysmal decision-making by Chuck Pagano. The Texans could easily be 3-5 or worse right now, which is saying a lot considering how easy their strength of schedule has been.

Detroit Lions: There might be some hype surrounding the Lions, but I don’t think it’s completely deserved. Prior to the Houston loss, they won three games in a row. However, all three victories were at home, and all three contests could’ve swung the other way. The Redskins lost because of their three fumbles. The Rams went down at the very end, and they outgained Detroit by more than a yard per play. And the Eagles, of course, fumbled the game away when they were running out the clock. I must remind you that before the Lions’ three-game home stretch, they had a legitimate defeat at Chicago. People might see them as an average 4-4 team, but given their defensive injuries, they could easily be 2-6 or even 1-7 right now.

JACKSONVILLE OFFENSE: The Jaguars showed a tremendous lack of effort when it came to tackling last Thursday, so they opted to fire Greg Olson, the one good coach on their staff. Yeah, that made a lot of sense. If it’s all about assigning blame for incompetence, one finger needs to be pointed at Gus Bradley, whom the players quit on. The other finger has to be pointed at Blake Bortles, whose mechanics have regressed. This isn’t a result of coaching; Bortles, who loves to party, hasn’t put nearly enough work into his craft. His work ethic is pathetic, and unless he changes things within the next two or three years, he’s going to be out of the league pretty quickly.

A third finger can be pointed at general manager David Caldwell, who has assembled a poor roster, at least on the offensive side of the ball. The offensive line is substandard, as left tackle Kelvin Beachum has not lived up to expectations, thanks to health concerns that prompted the Steelers to let him walk. Tamba Hali will have his way with Beachum, which should force Bortles into some poor throws. He won’t be able to connect with Allen Robinson very often once again, as Robinson, who has apparently taken the year off, will be blanketed by the terrific Marcus Peters.

The Jaguars won’t be able to run very well either. T.J. Yeldon has not lived up to expectations as a second-round pick – not shocking at all that an Alabama running back flopped, by the way – and Chris Ivory has been even worse. It’s mind-boggling that Caldwell spent $32 million on him, and it’s a hell of a coincidence that Ivory’s yards-per-carry average is exactly that 32 figure with a decimal point in between the “3” and the “2.” Bravo, Caldwell, that is an unreal level of incompetence.

KANSAS CITY OFFENSE: The Jaguars drafted some talented defensive players, but I’m beginning to sour on Jalen Ramsey. The Florida State cornerback has played well, but I think his attitude might be poisoning the locker room. It could be a reason why the Jaguars decided not to try hard Thursday night. Meanwhile, the previous year’s first-round pick, Dante Fowler, is putting no pressure on opposing quarterbacks. It’s not yet clear whether Alex Smith or Nick Foles will start, but either signal-caller figures to operate in a clean pocket.

It actually doesn’t matter to me whether Smith or Foles starts, as they are pretty similar in talent. Foles had some terrible coaching post-Andy Reid, but he’s now back to playing for someone who actually knows what he’s doing. Either quarterback will be able to move the chains somewhat effectively at times, though it needs to be mentioned that the one thing going for the Jaguars in this matchup is that unlike the Colts, they defend tight ends well, thanks to their outstanding linebackers. Travis Kelce will make some nice catches, but he won’t be overly dominant like he was this past Sunday.

Still, Kansas City’s offensive line should be able to push around Jacksonville’s defensive front and create holes for the running back. It’s unclear if the starter will be Spencer Ware or Charcandrick West, as the former sustained a concussion last week. West is good enough to move the chains consistently, however, as Jacksonville is missing talented run-stuffer Roy Miller.

RECAP: I really like a lot of games this week, but like the Thursday night affair (just made a pick change), this isn’t one of them. The Chiefs are vastly superior to the Jaguars, whose only covers this year have been against the Colts and Bears, two of the worst teams in the NFL. Jacksonville hasn’t battled a team currently in the top 10 of my NFL Power Rankings since Week 2, when they lost 38-14 at San Diego. This game could follow a similar trajectory.

That said, I can’t get excited about the prospect of laying close to double digits with the Chiefs, who are limited offensively. The Jaguars also have a penchant of generating garbage-time scores, and a late Bortles touchdown could cover the spread. Plus, I expect a high amount of effort from Jacksonville after being embarrassed on national TV. Still, all of that might not be enough to get the cover.

THURSDAY THOUGHTS: When it was announced that Foles would start over Smith, this line dropped from +9 to +7.5, which I don’t understand. The two quarterbacks are about the same, so Chiefs -7.5 looks more intriguing. If it falls to -7, I may consider a small bet on Kansas City.

SATURDAY NOTES: There’s a bit of sharp movement on the Jaguars, but not very much. However, as I noted in the SuperContest Picks Analysis, the Chiefs are the second-most popular pick amongst top entrants this week. SportsLine’s Micah Roberts is 22-6 in college football Over-Under picks this season (+1534 profit). He’s also won his last 5 NFL Over-Under picks. You can get all of his plays by visiting SportsLine.com.

FINAL THOUGHTS: This spread has dropped to -7, thanks to the sharp movement on the Jaguars. However, I think there’s some value with Kansas City now. And besides, I’ll actually be rooting against my own pick because of the Supercontest, so I’ll place a unit on the Chiefs.

The Psychology. Edge: Jaguars.

The Jaguars just got embarrassed on national TV and saw a coach get fired, so I think they’ll be trying much harder this week.

The Vegas. Edge: Vikings.

The public is betting the Chiefs.

Percentage of money on Kansas City: 70% (23,000 bets)

The Trends. Edge: Chiefs.

Jaguars are 27-58 ATS against non-divisional opponents since 2008.

Opening Line: Chiefs -8.5.

Opening Total: 45.5.

Weather: .

Week 9 NFL Pick: Chiefs 26, Jaguars 14
Chiefs -7 (1 Unit) — Incorrect; -$110
Under 43 (0 Units) — Correct; $0
Survivor Pick (7-1)
Chiefs 19, Jaguars 14

Detroit Lions (4-4) at Minnesota Vikings (5-2)
Line: Vikings by 6. Total: 42.5.
Las Vegas Hilton Advance Point Spread: Vikings -6.
Walt’s Calculated Line: Vikings -7.
Sunday, Nov 6, 1:00 PM
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The Game. Edge: Vikings.

VEGAS UPDATE: I’ll be posting how the Vegas sportsbooks have done the previous week in this spot in coming weeks. Here were the four highest-bet sides, as of Tuesday morning last week:

Patriots -6.5

Vikings -5.5

Raiders +1.5

Bengals -3

Those teams went 2-2 ATS, bringing the overall record this season to 13-21. However, the sportsbooks had their worst Sunday of the year this past week, so perhaps that explains why Minnesota didn’t cover. Still, they need to do something about those New England spreads, which are still too low. Here are the highest-bet teams in Week 9, as of Tuesday morning:

Falcons -3.5

Saints -3

Cowboys -7.5

Panthers -3

MINNESOTA OFFENSE: The Vikings were beyond pathetic Monday night. I was utterly shocked with how poorly they played, though that’s mostly in terms of the defensive side of the ball. The Vikings’ offense struggling can’t be a surprise because of how poor their tackles are, and besides, Sam Bradford’s middling talent level isn’t good enough to compensate for the poor blocking and non-existent running game.

It’s truly amazing how abysmal Minnesota’s tackles are. Jake Long shouldn’t be starting, while T.J. Clemmings could actually be the worst lineman to ever start in the NFL. That’s not an exaggeration. Having said that, Long and Clemmings don’t have the toughest matchup in this contest. Ziggy Ansah is still recovering from an injury and clearly isn’t 100 percent, while Devin Taylor isn’t putting any pressure on the quarterback. Kerry Hyder should be playing more, but he isn’t, so Bradford may not have an overwhelming amount of pressure in his face.

If Bradford gets some time to throw, which appears to be the case, he’ll be able to connect early and often with Stefon Diggs. The talented receiver, who racked up garbage time at Chicago, should have a solid performance, considering that the Lions could once again be without star cornerback Darius Slay. Kyle Rudolph also figures to have a great game, as the Lions are very weak to tight ends.

DETROIT OFFENSE: It was truly shocking to me how poorly Minnesota’s defense performed Monday night. I can’t ever remember a Mike Zimmer-coached defense constantly being out of position and surrendering lots of big plays like that. I have to think it was an aberration.

If there’s some good news for the Vikings, it’s that Andrew Sendejo should return from his ankle injury. Mike Zimmer called Sendejo “day to day” prior to Monday night, so that sounds like he could suit up, right? Sendejo was missed Monday night, as Jayron Kearse filled in very poorly. The Lions don’t have the running game to take advantage of Kearse, anyway. Theo Riddick is a nice receiver out of the backfield, but running in between the tackles isn’t exactly his forte.

Of course, the Lions will attempt to move the chains primarily via Matthew Stafford throwing to Marvin Jones, Golden Tate, Eric Ebron and Riddick. The Lions have some liabilities up front, which the Minnesota pass-rushers should be able to exploit. The excellent secondary, featuring Xavier Rhodes, who just did a great job on Alshon Jeffery, will be able to handle the Detroit receivers.

RECAP: I’ll be shocked if the Vikings don’t rebound. They are still one of the better teams in the NFL, as far as I’m concerned, and I have enough faith in Zimmer and his coaching staff to bounce back from this losing streak.

With that said, I was hoping for more line value on the Vikings. They were -6 on the advance spread, and they’re still -6. I think that’s a point too low – remember, Minnesota destroyed the Texans at home back in Week 5 – and with Sendejo likely returning, Minnesota’s defense will be much better than it was Monday night.

I like Minnesota for a small bet. Six is a pretty important number, though, as Stafford is fully capable of throwing a back-door touchdown to perhaps cover the spread. That’s my greatest fear in terms of wagering on the Vikings.

THURSDAY THOUGHTS: The public is pounding the Lions like crazy, but the sharps haven’t touched Minnesota, prompting this spread to drop to -5.5. If this line somehow falls to -4, I’ll increase my unit count, but for now, I’m sticking with one unit on Minnesota.

SATURDAY NOTES: There are injuries on both sides here, as the Lions won’t have Riley Reiff, and Minnesota will be without Eric Kendricks and Alex Boone. This all seems like a wash, so I still have a slight lean on the Vikings. In the SuperContest Picks Analysis, I pointed out that six of the top seven handicappers all have picked Minnesota, and it’s not difficult to see why. This line is a bit short of what it should be, as the Vikings are still one of the top teams in the NFL despite their recent losses. The sharps agree.

FINAL THOUGHTS: Here’s another unit change. With Darius Slay officially out, I like the Vikings more. Plus, this is another way for me to hedge my bet, given what’s going on in the Supercontest. Besides, if so many smart handicappers are taking Minnesota, this has to be the correct side, right?

The Psychology. Edge: Vikings.

I’m sure the Vikings will be motivated after being embarrassed on national TV.

The Vegas. Edge: None.
Equal action.

Percentage of money on Minnesota: 56% (24,000 bets)

The Trends. Edge: Vikings.

History: Vikings have won 26 of the last 33 meetings.

Lions are 6-14 ATS on the road vs. teams with winning records since 2011.

Mike Zimmer is 29-11 ATS as head coach of the Vikings.

Opening Line: Vikings -6.

Opening Total: 41.

Weather: Dome.

Week 9 NFL Pick: Vikings 27, Lions 20
Vikings -6 (2 Units) — Incorrect; -$220
Over 42.5 (0 Units) — Incorrect; $0
Lions 22, Vikings 16

Philadelphia Eagles (4-3) at New York Giants (4-3)
Line: Giants by 3. Total: 43.
Las Vegas Hilton Advance Point Spread: Giants -3.
Walt’s Calculated Line: Eagles -2.
Sunday, Nov 6, 1:00 PM
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The Game. Edge: Eagles.

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HATE MAIL: I didn’t get any hate mail on my picks page last week. That was not the case heading into Sunday’s games, though this individual didn’t really say why he dislikes me:

You know, I haven’t @#$@ed myself as often with my fiancee living with me, but it still can be quite fun.

Another hate-mailer asked me to take down my site:

If I’m a “stupid loser with no life,” what does that say about that guy, given that he’s taking the time to post on my site, which he believes should be taken down?

He finally provided an explanation for his hatred:

So, in other words, he’s angry that he’s not smart enough to create his own Web site so that people can “worship” him for making picks, even though no one worships me. It’s OK, buddy, making a Web site isn’t that difficult. I created this as a class project in high school 17 years ago, so you have a chance to make a site so you can believe that people are worshiping you even though they’re not!

PHILADELPHIA OFFENSE: Carson Wentz hasn’t been as sharp ever since losing stud right tackle Lane Johnson. Then again, he has gone against two defenses packed with talented players. The Giants, meanwhile, have not been playing up to their ability. Perhaps that’ll change after the bye, but their defensive line hasn’t been putting a great amount of pressure on opposing quarterbacks, so there’s a chance Wentz will have some time in the pocket in this contest.

The problem for Wentz is that he doesn’t have talented downfield weapons to work with. Jordan Matthews is just OK, and he’ll be covered by excellent cornerback Janoris Jenkins in this contest. Meanwhile, I’m sure Nelson Agholor and Dorial Green-Beckham will continue to drop passes. It’s not difficult to realize why the Eagles have been linked to Torrey Smith so often leading up to the trade deadline.

The Eagles should have some success moving the chains, however, as I think Darren Sproles and Zach Ertz could have big games. New York’s linebacking corps is an abomination and will have issues tackling the two talented players.

NEW YORK OFFENSE: Like the Eagles, the Giants have issues in pass protection, but their problems are more dire. Both tackles are struggling, which has to be horrible news for them going into this matchup because Brandon Graham and Connor Barwin are more than capable of putting consistent heat on opposing passers. Graham has been especially dynamic this season, and I have no idea how the Giants are going to be able to block him.

Eli Manning has endured one of the worst seasons of his career thus far, and given the pass-protection woes, it’s easy to recognize why that’s been the case. I don’t see why that would change in this divisional contest, though Odell Beckham Jr. should still have a big game. Beckham has been resistant to Manning’s struggles, and the Eagles don’t have any corners capable of matching up against him. Sterling Shepard and Victor Cruz will continue to post meager numbers, but Beckham should be able to shine.

It’ll help the Eagles that they’ll be able to concentrate on stopping Manning. The Giants have no running game to speak of, as Rashad Jennings is averaging just 2.7 yards per carry this year. Philadelphia won’t be as strong versus the rush without Bennie Logan, but it’ll be able to handle Jennings pretty easily.

RECAP: There are about six or seven picks I’m considering for the Supercontest, and this is one of them. I love the Eagles this week.

This spread isn’t close to what it should be. I actually think the Eagles should be favored in this matchup. They’re definitely the better team, as the Giants have been overrated all year. New York has gotten extremely lucky in its previous two contests and could easily be 2-5 right now. In fact, the Giants also narrowly won in their other two victories. Their 4-3 record isn’t nearly indicative of their overall skill level, which is weighed down by Manning’s struggles.

On top of that, the Giants have no homefield advantage, owning an 8-11 straight-up, 9-10 ATS record as hosts over the past couple of years. They’ve been favored by an average line of 1.1, and their average margin of victory is exactly zero (25.1-25.1). Thus, I have the Eagles listed as -2, meaning this spread is off by 4.5 points.

It’s easy to see why there is such a disparity. Most regular fans and casual bettors focus on records. These teams are both 4-3, so they must be even. Except, they’re not. The Giants, as mentioned, could be 2-5 or worse. The Eagles, on the other hand, probably should’ve beaten the Lions and could’ve defeated the Cowboys last week. What would this line be if the 6-1 Eagles were at the 2-5 Giants? Philadelphia would be -3, right?

I wish I could’ve gotten Eagles +3, which was available for exactly 53 minutes on 5Dimes on Monday morning. I’m going to hold out for that number, but I still love Philadelphia in this matchup, and I’m willing to wager five units on it.

THURSDAY THOUGHTS: The line hasn’t moved at all, which is surprising. I’m holding out for Eagles +3, but I don’t think we’re going to get it.

SATURDAY NOTES: I’m glad to see that Eagles +3 -120 is available in several books. I’m not locking it in yet, as I’m hoping for a better number. Philadelphia just seems like the obvious side. The Giants are a bad football team that can’t block, run the ball or get after the quarterback. The sharps haven’t touched this game despite the Eagles apparently being a great play.

FINAL THOUGHTS: I’m glad I waited on this, as the Eagles are now +3 across the board. I don’t understand why this line moved up, but I’ll take it.

The Psychology. Edge: None.
No edge found.

The Vegas. Edge: Giants.
A good amount of bets on the Eagles.

Percentage of money on Philadelphia: 61% (28,000 bets)

The Trends. Edge: Eagles.

History: Road Team has won 13 of the last 18 meetings.

History: Eagles have won 13 the last 16 meetings.

Eagles are 26-14 ATS as road underdogs since 2005.

Opening Line: Giants -3.

Opening Total: 44.

Weather: .

Week 9 NFL Pick: Eagles 23, Giants 16
Eagles +3 (5 Units) — Incorrect; -$550
Under 43.5 (0 Units) — Incorrect; $0
Giants 28, Eagles 23

Dallas Cowboys (6-1) at Cleveland Browns (0-8)
Line: Cowboys by 8. Total: 49.5.
Las Vegas Hilton Advance Point Spread: Cowboys -6.5.
Walt’s Calculated Line: Cowboys -5.
Sunday, Nov 6, 1:00 PM
Comment on this game

The Game. Edge: Cowboys.

I wouldn’t say my weekly random NFL notes cluttered these picks pages, so I’ll keep them here. What I’m also going to do is store all of them in a Random NFL Notes section so that you can go back and read previous entries in the future.

Some random NFL notes I can’t put anywhere else:

1. I need to discuss something Josh Norman mentioned recently, and not his rant on the London officials. Here’s the quote, just to prove that I’m not making up this asinine statement:

I’d actually like to see Norman try this. I’d get a kick out of it. I just hope he tells everyone ahead of time so I can bet against his team.

Norman’s stance, however, is quite stupid. He’s clearly against beer sales, so OK, let’s have the NFL relinquish all of its beer advertising. Beer advertising accounts for 8 percent of the NFL’s advertising, per numerous Web sites I scanned while doing brief research for this mini-article. So, if Norman wants the NFL to quit advertising beer, he should be prepared to surrender 8 percent of his contract.

Norman signed a $75 million contract with $36.5 million guaranteed. Norman should tell the NFL he’s willing to hand back $6 million overall and $2.92 million in guarantees. Wait, what’s that? You don’t want to do that, Josh? You don’t say!

I don’t get what the big deal is. My friends and I grew up watching beer commercials on TV as kids, and we all grew up normal. Well, except for the one guy I thought was going to kill me when I last saw him, but everyone else is at least somewhat successful!

I think I speak for all non-idiots when I say that we need to cut this “kids can’t be exposed to stuff like beer” crap and stop being a nation of giant p***sies.

2. Speaking of the Redskins, I need to discuss the London games one more time, but not because of the ridiculously early start times. Roger Goodell is still an a**hole for forcing people on the West Coast to wake up at 6 a.m. to set their fantasy lineups, but I’ve discussed this already so many times.

What I want to focus on is the singing of God Save the Queen. If you were still asleep, I’d be envious of you, but you did miss this:

That’s Laura Wright, the songstress who performed England’s national anthem, and she was incredible. Not only did she have a great voice, but she wore nothing but a bra over a sport coat. I’m hoping that this is a fashion trend that picks up some traction in America. With our economy in the crapper, as employment participation is at a 40-year low, we need something to jolt the American spirit, and I think this is something that could help tremendously.

Also, I need to show you some tweets I saw as Laura sang God Save the Queen:

The top two people are just stupid, but yet, they’re smarter than this Todd Kelsch fellow, who is one of these whiney douches who thinks everything is racist when it’s clearly not.

I was about to think that all people on Twitter were idiots, but then I saw James Curran’s tweet, and my faith in humanity was suddenly restored.

3. Keeping with the theme of dumb things, can the NFL please get rid of these stupid Color Rush jerseys? What’s the point of these things aside from pissing off color-blind people? They’re just dumb. I mean, just look at this (thanks, Alfredo C):

Did the NFL really think people would watch the Titans-Jaguars game and immediately log onto NFLShop.com to purchase Jacksonville’s gold jerseys so they could look like Goldust? I think the league desperately needs to hire new marketing people.

CLEVELAND OFFENSE: Despite playing poorly for three-plus quarters, the Cowboys were able to take advantage of some Philadelphia mistakes and rally at the end of regulation, ultimately prevailing in overtime. It was a nice victory, but it happened to be a Pyrrhic one as well. That’s because Dallas lost Morris Claiborne and Barry Church to injuries.

Not having Claiborne and Church in the lineup will be huge going forward. Church should be out for about a month, but it sounds like Claiborne has been lost for the season. Claiborne has been one of the league’s top cornerbacks this year, while Church has performed well at safety.

Now, you might be asking yourself, “Who the hell cares about these injuries this week because the Cowboys are playing the crappy Browns!?” If the Dallas players have this mindset, Cleveland will win outright, and no, I’m not joking. The Browns are getting back some reinforcements this week in Cody Kessler and Corey Coleman. The latter, an explosive first-round rookie, had a huge performance against the Ravens in Week 2 before sustaining a broken hand. This will be his first contest since catching five passes for 104 yards and two touchdowns versus Baltimore, and he and Terrelle Pryor will figure to abuse Dallas’ injury-ravaged secondary. This will take Dallas’ focus away from Isaiah Crowell, who should be able to run well versus a sub-par rush defense.

DALLAS OFFENSE: The Browns will also be better on this side of the ball. They traded for Jamie Collins on Monday, which I still find absolutely puzzling from New England’s perspective. Truthers have tried to spin stories about Collins not playing well this year, but he has been fantastic. He’s an extremely talented player and will be a force next to the solid Christian Kirksey at inside linebacker.

Cleveland’s defense still has some major issues, particularly at safety, but it’ll definitely be better with Collins on the field. Having Joe Haden back in action helps as well. Haden did a good job on Brandon Marshall this past Sunday. While covering Dez Bryant will be a tough task, Haden should be able to at least limit him a bit.

Having said all of this, the Dallas running game will be difficult to stop. Aside from Danny Shelton, the Browns don’t really have anyone on the defensive line who can battle the Cowboy blockers. As a result, Ezekiel Elliott figures to have huge running lanes to burst through.

RECAP: I’ve been betting the Browns heavily almost every week, and it’s been working out, save for a couple of exceptions. I’ve definitely been sweating it out though. I guess I’m a glutton for punishment because I’m wagering heavily on Cleveland again.

In the Eagles-Giants capsule, I discussed how the public focuses too much on records and doesn’t pay attention to how well teams are actually performing. The Browns, for example, are not the worst team in the league despite being 0-8. They’ve outgained the opposition in yards per play in four of eight contests. They should’ve defeated the Ravens and Dolphins, and they could have upset the Redskins and Jets, as they were winning both contests in the second half. They also played tightly against the Bengals, but lost because Kessler got hurt (when Cleveland was winning) and A.J. Green caught a Hail Mary at the end of the first half.

If the Browns were 2-6 or 3-5, which is more indicative of their overall talent level and coaching, they would not be getting more than a touchdown. They’d be about +5, which is where the line really should be. Thus, we’re getting 2.5 points of value, all while going through key numbers of six and seven.

The Cowboys, meanwhile, didn’t seem too focused against the Eagles, and I have to wonder if they’ll be just as aloof in this contest after coming off such a huge overtime victory.

This spread is too high, and I like the Browns a lot, especially with some of their key players returning from injury. This is going to be a four-unit wager.

THURSDAY THOUGHTS: I thought about locking in the Browns at +7.5, which is available at Bovada, but I’m going to wait. The public is pounding the Cowboys, but the sharps haven’t really taken the Browns at +7, so this line may move up.

SATURDAY NOTES: The Browns are available at +8 -115, which seems great. The sharps haven’t toched this game yet, but I think they may do so Sunday morning.

SUNDAY MORNING: It’s currenly 3:25 a.m. I was about to head to bed, but I saw that +8 -110 popped up on Bovada, which is what I’ve been waiting for. I’ll lock in the Browns for four units.

FINAL THOUGHTS: I locked this in last night. That same number is available even though the sharps have been betting the Browns on Sunday morning.

The Psychology. Edge: Browns.

The Cowboys are coming off a big win in overtime and are now well ahead of every team in their division. The Browns, meanwhile, are very desperate for a win.

The Vegas. Edge: Browns.

Lots of bets are coming in on the Cowboys.

Percentage of money on Dallas: 75% (44,000 bets)

The Trends. Edge: Browns.

Cowboys are 16-10 ATS after playing the Eagles since 2000.

Cowboys are 9-20 ATS when favored after a win since 2010.

The underdog is 65-37 ATS in Cowboys games since 2010.

Opening Line: Cowboys -8.

Opening Total: 46.5.

Weather: .

Week 9 NFL Pick: Cowboys 26, Browns 21
Browns +8 (4 Units) — Incorrect; -$440
Under 49.5 (0 Units) — Correct; $0
Cowboys 35, Browns 10

New York Jets (3-5) at Miami Dolphins (3-4)
Line: Dolphins by 4. Total: 45.
Las Vegas Hilton Advance Point Spread: Dolphins -3.
Walt’s Calculated Line: Dolphins -1.5.
Sunday, Nov 6, 1:00 PM
Comment on this game

The Game. Edge: Jets.

As with the random NFL notes, I’m going to have all of my Random College Football Notes on one page as well. Oh, and you can find my College Football Picks here.

Random College Football Notes:

1. If you’re an American man like me, you must have been doing one of the following on Thursday night:

– Zoning out during the Titans-Jaguars game

– Taking a post-dinner nap

– Downloading porn

– Tuning into the Virginia Tech-Pitt game

I did a mixture of the first three. Those who performed the fourth action saw this:

What. The. Hell. Is. That??? Seriously. What the hell? Why would anyone wear biker shorts while playing football? What’s next, a player wearing nothing but a thong? The NCAA needs to suspend this player for eight games and then restrict Pitt’s scholarship totals before this gets absolutely out of hand.

2. Clemson at Florida State was a crazy game, with lots of big plays, as well as insane twists and turns. No one picked up on it, but something crazy happened off the field as well. I want you to look at this picture:

Don’t focus too hard on the man dressed in red or the hot blonde in the front row. Take a look at the two chicks in the next row up. One is so shocked she has her mouth completely agape. The other is covering her mouth in utter shock.

So, what’s happening here? Why are these woman so surprised? Look very carefully at this shot:

Do you see it? Right near the one girl’s white skirt…? The dude in the red suit has a massive boner!

Look, dude in red costume, I know the women you’re standing next to are super hot, but you have to control yourself.

3. Speaking of the Clemson-Florida State game, I’d be remiss if I didn’t mention the awful officiating. It became apparent when Trey Marshall was penalized for targeting and was ejected because of it. It was helmet-to-helmet contact, but it only happened because the Clemson receiver lowered his helmet into Marshall. I don’t think ejecting players for hits like this is in the spirit of the game. Aside from the fantasy, draft and betting aspects, people love football because of the big hits. I get legislating the blatant blasts that cause concussions, but incidental blows shouldn’t warrant ejections.

Later in the game, there was a horrible holding call, prompting Jimbo Fisher to go nuts. The official flagged Fisher for an unsportsmanlike penalty, putting Florida State in a ridiculous down-and-distance situation. This almost decided the game, which was ridiculous. The ref, who looked like some dweeb who got his lunch money stolen every day in high school, was seemingly trying to decide the game on his own. I hate officials who think they’re bigger than the game, as this guy, who apparently was trying to get revenge against all the bullies by showing football players who was boss, was attempting to become the deciding factor.

Now, to be fair, he wasn’t completely pro-Clemson. The officiating crew missed a blatant non-call on a Deshaun Watson face mask. It was just piss-poor officiating, and the NCAA needed to provide a better crew for such a big game.

MIAMI OFFENSE: Three weeks ago, people considered the Dolphins to be the worst team in the NFL because they were 1-4, with their sole victory being a lucky outcome against the Browns. Now, the public is willing to lay more than a field goal with Miami because Jay Ajayi is coming off back-to-back 200-yard rushing performances, sparking the Dolphins to consecutive victories. Now 3-4, Miami is considered to be an average team because of its record.

The Dolphins were never as bad as their 1-4 record indicated, but they may have trouble getting to .500 because Ajayi will have problems finding running lanes. Ajayi abused a Pittsburgh defense missing Cameron Heyward and a Buffalo stop unit that appeared to be looking ahead to its matchup against the Patriots. Sure, it was a huge boost for Ajayi to be running behind a healthy offensive line for the first time all year, but the problem in this contest is that he’ll be going up against the Jets, who are tremendous when it comes to stopping the run.

Ryan Tannehill will have to come through to lead his team to victory. That may seem like an easy task on paper, given how bad the Jets’ secondary is. However, Tannehill is an eratic passer, and I don’t have faith in him to be consistent, even in favorable matchups.

NEW YORK OFFENSE: Ryan Fitzpatrick should get Joe Namath to tweet how much he sucks every game. Fitzpatrick was dreadful in the early going versus Cleveland – he was something like 3-of-12 at one point – but right after Namath tweeted that Fitzpatrick should be benched, the bearded quarterback caught fire and helped lead the Jets back from down 20-7.

Fitzpatrick has endured some rough outings this year, but the Jets’ strength of schedule has been overly taxing. He has improved the past two weeks against lesser opponents, and Miami certainly qualifies as one, too. The Dolphins have a strong defensive line, but their linebacking corps and secondary are pretty woeful. Brandon Marshall and Quincy Enunwa shouldn’t have much trouble getting open, so the Jets figure to move the chains aerially pretty well.

The Jets should be able to advance the ball via their ground attack as well. Matt Forte struggled for a while, but he has rebounded the past two weeks. He’ll have another nice performance against a Miami rush defense that has been underwhelming.

RECAP: This is another spread that happens to be inaccurate. On Sunday night, I browse through my Excel sheets, reading all of the notes I have for each team, and then I make my own lines prior to glancing at the real point spreads. There was a disparity in this game, as I made Miami -1.5.

I can’t say I’m surprised that this spread is off. The public has more confidence in the Dolphins now, while they’re still souring on the Jets because of how awful they looked at Arizona on a Monday night. New York has played better against worse competition, however, and Miami doesn’t really have much of a homefield advantage. Hence, the -1.5 calculated line.

With two points of value, all while going through a key number (3), I love the Jets. They have some nice matchup edges in this contest – i.e. being able to defend Ajayi rather well – and I’m willing to wager four units on them.

THURSDAY THOUGHTS: Here’s another game I’m close to locking in. The Jets can be bet at +4 -115 at CRIS, which looks intriguing. The sharps are betting New York, so that line may disappear soon. I’m hoping Bovada will give us something better though.

SATURDAY NOTES: I’m going to drop this to three units because Nick Mangold is out, while Ryan Clady is banged up. This is a concern against Miami’s defensive line, but the Jets still seem like a very good play. You can get them at +4 -105 at Bovada.

FINAL THOUGHTS: Jets +4 is disappearing, so get them quickly if you haven’t yet. It’s still available at Bovada, but New York has moved to +3.5. Ryan Clady and Muhammad Wilkerson will be in the lineup, so I’ll bump this back up to four units.

The Psychology. Edge: None.
No edge found.

The Vegas. Edge: None.
Equal action.

Percentage of money on New York: 57% (20,000 bets)

The Trends. Edge: Jets.

History: Road Team has won 12 of the last non-London 16 meetings.

Underdog is 71-39 ATS in the Dolphins’ last 110 games.

Dolphins are 7-21 ATS as favorites of 3.5 or more since 2008.

Dolphins are 10-34 ATS at home against teams with losing records since 2003.

Dolphins are 4-10 ATS as a favorite coming off a SU win as an underdog since 2007.

Opening Line: Dolphins -4.

Opening Total: 45.

Weather: .

Week 9 NFL Pick: Dolphins 20, Jets 19
Jets +4 (4 Units) — Push; $0
Under 45 (0 Units) — Incorrect; $0
Dolphins 27, Jets 23

Pittsburgh Steelers (4-3) at Baltimore Ravens (3-4)
Line: Steelers by 3.5. Total: 46.
Las Vegas Hilton Advance Point Spread: No Line (Roethlisberger).
Walt’s Calculated Line: Steelers -1.5 (Roethlisberger) or Ravens -3 (Jones).
Sunday, Nov 6, 1:00 PM
Comment on this game

The Game. Edge: Steelers.

If you’ve followed this site for a while, you might remember that I like to respond to my spam mails. Five years ago, a man named Jon Wire from the “United Bank of Africoan” promised me an ATM card of some sort, so I responded as a man named Mister Compassion Chuck Norris, who was raised by wolves. The following season, I received e-mails from Richard Held and Loon Bruce, who told me I won a Facebook Award, which comes with a “lump sum pay out of (750,000.00 GBP).” Pretending to be Matthew Millen Kim, I sent out my application and fake money.

I messed around with a spammer pretending to be a black woman named Mulyana in 2012. I assumed Steve Urkel’s identity and had many exchanges with Mulyana. Click the link to see all of that. As for the 2013 season, I pretended to be Riley Cooper and Aaron Hernandez in some responses. In 2014, Donald Sterling answered spammers.

Last year, Tom Brady and his deflated footballs were involved. You can see those Spam Mails here with my responses to avoid clutter. I’ll have brand new spam mail responses every week!

Also…

Video of the Week: Enough kids pissed me off during my vacation in Vegas, which you can read about in Jerks of the Week, so I found this video highly amusing (thanks, Kenny S.):

I know this is fake, but the FDA needs to approve this thing pronto. I’d buy like 20 cases.

PITTSBURGH OFFENSE: Vegas doesn’t screw up often, but they managed to do so with this game. They set a spread of Ravens -3 on Sunday night, which I found puzzling. Ben Roethlisberger hadn’t been ruled out yet, and based on his history of returning early from injury, I thought there was actually a decent chance he would suit up. I know some sharp bettors pounded Steelers +3 relentlessly, prompting the books to drop the spread right to pick ’em. Hours later, this game was off the board.

I’m willing to bet that someone was fired as a result of this mishap, which may end up costing the books that posted a line some serious money. All the reports regarding Roethlisberger sound positive, and I’d be willing to bet that he’ll get the start. It’s unknown how healthy he’ll be, but the Ravens aren’t exactly operating at 100 percent either. Terrell Suggs will return this week, but he may not be 100 percent. Meanwhile, C.J. Mosley, Elvis Dumervil, Shareece Wright and Lardarius Webb are all starters who are considered questionable. It’s unclear which of them will take the field, as it’s still early in the week, but I’m guessing that no matter what happens, Baltimore will have a lacking pass rush that will give Roethlisberger all the time he needs to find his weapons downfield.

The Ravens have boasted a solid run defense for the most part this year, but they declined in that regard as a result of their injuries. Mosley would provide a big boost, but Le’Veon Bell figures to have a strong outing regardless.

BALTIMORE OFFENSE: The Ravens have injury concerns on this side of the ball as well. Joe Flacco wasn’t 100 percent prior to the bye because of his shoulder injury, and he was missing both Marshal Yanda and Steve Smith. The latter sounds like he’ll be back in the lineup, and Mike Tomlin told the media that Yanda should be available as well. This is huge because the Steelers will be getting back Cameron Heyward from injury.

Heyward is Pittsburgh’s top defender, and his absence allowed Jay Ajayi to post his first 200-yard rushing performance. With Heyward on the field, the Ravens will not be able to run the ball successfully, as the Steelers stopped opposing ground attacks pretty effectively prior to the defensive end’s injury. Heyward will also put pressure on Flacco, though Yanda’s presence will certainly help.

Whether or not the Ravens move the chains consistently depends on how Flacco healthy is. The bye week came at the right time, as he could be back to complete strength. If so, he’ll have success airing the ball out to Smith, whose absence was greatly felt.

RECAP: I loved Steelers +3, but that’s long gone. Steelers PK might be as well.

It’s unclear what the new line will be when it’s released. I’ll pencil in the Steelers for picking-pool purposes right now, but for a concrete selection, check back later or follow me for updates @walterfootball for updates.

THURSDAY THOUGHTS: There’s still no line posted on this game, but it’s sounding like Roethlisberger will play. If you have a Steelers +3 ticket, consider yourself extremely fortunate!

SATURDAY NOTES: There’s still no spread available! I’ll be posting a pick Sunday morning when the books finally post one.

PICK POSTED: There’s finally a line on this game. The Steelers are either -3 or -3.5 depending on where you look. I love Baltimore here, and I’m willing to wager three units on it.

Roethlisberger wasn’t the only injury I was watching. Steve Smith, Marshal Yanda, Ronnie Stanley, C.J. Mosley and Terrell Suggs are all active for Baltimore. The Ravens are closer to full strength now, so I think they can go back to their winning ways. The Steelers, meanwhile, are just 2-5 in Roethlisberger’s first game back from injury. The rest of the team won’t be going at 110 percent because they know they can relax a bit with their starting quarterback returning to the lineup. This line is too high, anyway; Ravens +3.5 is saying they’d be +9.5 at Pittsburgh, which is just absurd. The line should be +1.5, so we’re getting two points of value, going through the key number of three.

The Psychology. Edge: Ravens.

Ben Roethlisberger is back, so there will be a relax factor for Pittsburgh.

The Vegas. Edge: Ravens.

Some books posted a line, believing Ben Roethlisberger would be out. It was announced that Roethlisberger could play, and the books took a lot of Pittsburgh bets before taking the line down. Now that a line is posted, the public is betting the Steelers (shocker).

Percentage of money on Pittsburgh: 67% (15,000 bets)

The Trends. Edge: Ravens.

History: Home Team has won 21 of the last 30 meetings (Flacco 5-8 vs. Roethlisberger).

Ben Roethlisberger is 43-23 ATS vs. the AFC North.

Steelers are 18-30 ATS as road favorites since 2007.

Ravens are 20-11 ATS in November home games since 2000.

Ravens are 22-16 ATS at home as an underdog or favorite of 1-7 points with Joe Flacco.

John Harbaugh is 6-2 ATS off a bye.

Opening Line: Ravens -3.

Opening Total: 43.

Weather: .

Week 9 NFL Pick: Steelers 21, Ravens 20
Ravens +3.5 (3 Units) — Correct; +$300
Under 46 (0 Units) — Correct; $0
Ravens 21, Steelers 14

Week 9 NFL Picks – Late Games
New Orleans at San Francisco, Carolina at Los Angeles, Indianapolis at Green Bay, Tennessee at San Diego, Denver at Oakland, Buffalo at Seattle

Prop/Teaser/Parlay Picks
A list of some of my favorite team/player prop picks this week
(Offense & defensive ROY picks to be counted whenever winners are announced.) Picks carried over on a week-to-week basis will be in black.

Prop/teaser/parlay picks posted in Week 9 NFL Picks – Late Games

NFL Picks - Nov. 15

2025 NFL Mock Draft - Nov. 13

NFL Power Rankings - Nov. 12

Fantasy Football Rankings - Sept. 4

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2009 Season 2-3 Unit NFL Picks: 49-35-3, 58.3% (+$2,260)
2010 Season 2-3 Unit NFL Picks: 51-38-4, 57.3% (+$3,180)
2011 Season 2-3 Unit NFL Picks: 44-51-3, 46.3% (-$2,715)
2012 Season 2-3 Unit NFL Picks: 45-50-2, 47.4% (-$2,130)
2013 Season 2-3 Unit NFL Picks: 38-42, 47.5% (-$2,890)
2015 Season 2-3 Unit NFL Picks: 47-44-1, 51.6% (-$820)
2016 Season 2-3 Unit NFL Picks: 42-35-3, 54.5% (+$475)
2017 Season 2-3 Unit NFL Picks: 32-40-3, 43.8% (-$2,395)
2018 Season 2-3 Unit NFL Picks: 52-41-2, 55.9% (+$2,670)
2019 Season 2-3 Unit NFL Picks: 44-36-2, 55.0% (+$655)
2020 Season 2-3 Unit NFL Picks: 47-43-3, 52.2% (-$1,965)
2021 Season 2-3 Unit NFL Picks: 50-50, 50.0% (-$1,570)
2022 Season 2-3 Unit NFL Picks: 56-44-2, 56.0% (+$1,860)
2023 Season 2-3 Unit NFL Picks: 44-40-3, 52.4% (+$285)

2002 Season 4-5 Unit NFL Picks: 11-12 (47.8%)
2003 Season 4-5 Unit NFL Picks: 16-13-1 (55.2%)
2004 Season 4-5 Unit NFL Picks: 18-11 (62.1%)
2005 Season 4-5 Unit NFL Picks: 25-22-1 (53.2%)
2006 Season 4-5 Unit NFL Picks: 21-29-1 (42.0%)
2007 Season 4-5 Unit NFL Picks: 35-30-2, 53.8% (+$420)
2008 Season 4-5 Unit NFL Picks: 39-26-2, 60.0% (+$4,055)
2009 Season 4-5 Unit NFL Picks: 29-26, 52.7% (+$330)
2010 Season 4-5 Unit NFL Picks: 32-22, 59.3% (+$4,790)
2011 Season 4-5 Unit NFL Picks: 14-14, 50.0% (-$1,260)
2012 Season 4-5 Unit NFL Picks: 14-21, 40.0% (-$3,650)
2013 Season 4-5 Unit NFL Picks: 17-9-3, 65.4% (+$2,970)
2015 Season 4-5 Unit NFL Picks: 17-16-2, 51.5% (-$1,120)
2016 Season 4-5 Unit NFL Picks: 21-22-5, 48.8% (-$1,465)
2017 Season 4-5 Unit NFL Picks: 20-22-1, 47.6% (-$1,595)
2018 Season 4-5 Unit NFL Picks: 27-32-1, 45.8% (-$4,735)
2019 Season 4-5 Unit NFL Picks: 37-27-2, 57.8% (+$2,185)
2020 Season 4-5 Unit NFL Picks: 37-22-1, 62.7% (+$5,515)
2021 Season 4-5 Unit NFL Picks: 32-32-1, 50.0% (-$725)
2022 Season 4-5 Unit NFL Picks: 41-30-1, 57.8% (+$3,725)
2023 Season 4-5 Unit NFL Picks: 32-27-1, 54.2% (-$1,310)

2001 Season Over-Under: 3-2 (60.0%)
2002 Season Over-Under: 121-91-3 (57.1%)
2003 Season Over-Under: 126-132-2 (48.8%)
2004 Season Over-Under: 139-124-4 (52.9%)
2005 Season Over-Under: 117-145-4 (44.7%)
2006 Season Over-Under: 129-132-5 (49.4%)
2007 Season Over-Under: 136-145-3, 48.4% (-$1,900)
2008 Season Over-Under: 137-125-6, 52.3% (+$860)
2009 Season Over-Under: 128-135-4, 48.7% (-$3,195)
2010 Season Over-Under: 128-135-5, 48.7% (-$5)
2011 Season Over-Under: 131-131-5, 50.0% (+$135)
2012 Season Over-Under: 125-121-5, 50.8% (+$30)
2013 Season Over-Under: 132-130-5, 50.4% (-$340)
2015 Season Over-Under: 143-119-5, 54.6% ($0)
2016 Season Over-Under: 123-141-1, 46.6% (+$95)
2017 Season Over-Under: 136-139-2, 49.5% (+$640)
2018 Season Over-Under: 118-128-3, 48.0% (-$225)
2019 Season Over-Under: 126-133-4, 48.6% (-$50)
2020 Season Over-Under: 141-122-6, 53.6% ($0)
2021 Season Over-Under: 132-151-3, 46.6% ($0)
2022 Season Over-Under: 133-149-2, 47.2% (-$225)
2023 Season Over-Under: 145-135-3, 51.8% (+$200)

2007 Season Prop/ML/Teaser/Parlay Picks: +$1,035
2008 Season Prop/ML/Teaser/Parlay Picks: +$1,775
2009 Season Prop/ML/Teaser/Parlay Picks: +$865
2010 Season Prop/ML/Teaser/Parlay Picks: -$200
2011 Season Prop/ML/Teaser/Parlay Picks: +$590
2012 Season Prop/ML/Teaser/Parlay Picks: -$1,685
2013 Season Prop/ML/Teaser/Parlay Picks: +$2,245
2015 Season Prop/ML/Teaser/Parlay Picks: -$855
2016 Season Prop/ML/Teaser/Parlay Picks: -$275
2017 Season Prop/ML/Teaser/Parlay Picks: -$510
2018 Season Prop/ML/Teaser/Parlay Picks: +$1,495
2019 Season Prop/ML/Teaser/Parlay Picks: -$1,715
2020 Season Prop/ML/Teaser/Parlay Picks: +$4,975
2021 Season Prop/ML/Teaser/Parlay Picks: +$3,455
2022 Season Prop/ML/Teaser/Parlay Picks: +$5,720
2023 Season Prop/ML/Teaser/Parlay Picks: -$2,565

2006 NFL Picks of the Month: 3-3 (50%)
2007 NFL Picks of the Month: 3-3, 50.0% (-$400)
2008 NFL Picks of the Month: 6-1, 85.7% (+$3,720)
2009 NFL Picks of the Month: 3-2, 60.0% (+$640)
2010 NFL Picks of the Month: 2-4, 33.3% (-$1,810)
2011 NFL Picks of the Month: 5-2, 71.4% (+$1,870)
2012 NFL Picks of the Month: 3-2, 60.0% (+$560)
2013 NFL Picks of the Month: 6-0, 100% (+$3,900)
2014 NFL Picks of the Month: 2-4, 33.3% (-$1,350)
2015 NFL Picks of the Month: 3-3, 50.0% (-$100)
2016 NFL Picks of the Month: 5-1, 83.3% (+$2,780)
2017 NFL Picks of the Month: 4-2, 66.7% (+$1,040)
2018 NFL Picks of the Month: 4-3, 57.1% (-$640)
2019 NFL Picks of the Month: 3-3-1, 50.0% (-$625)
2020 NFL Picks of the Month: 3-2, 60.0% (+$665)
2021 NFL Picks of the Month: 2-3, 40.0% (-$920)
2022 NFL Picks of the Month: 3-4, 42.9% (-$1,615)
2023 NFL Picks of the Month: 2-5, 28.6% (-$2,550)

Career NFL Picks Against The Spread: 3,499-3,231-202, 52.0% (+$17,105)
Career 2-3 Unit NFL Picks: 1,126-1,010-57 (52.7%)
Career 4-5 Unit NFL Picks: 568-502-25 (53.1%)
Career Over-Under: 2,935-2,908-76 (50.2%)
Career Second-Half NFL Picks: 23-16-1 (59.0%)
Career NFL Picks of the Month: 47-36-1 (56.6%)

My Team-by-Team ATS Record
This section shows how well I do when picking each team this year. The purpose is to see how well I read each team. Pushes are not displayed. Winning/losing streak in parentheses.

Cowboys: 5-3	Bears: 4-5	Bucs: 6-4	49ers: 6-3
Eagles: 4-5	Lions: 8-1	Falcons: 5-5	Cardinals: 8-2
Giants: 3-6	Packers: 5-3	Panthers: 4-6	Rams: 4-5
Redskins: 4-5	Vikings: 3-6	Saints: 5-5	Seahawks: 6-2

Bills: 3-7	Bengals: 2-8	Colts: 5-5	Broncos: 6-4
Dolphins: 3-6	Browns: 3-6	Jaguars: 2-7	Chargers: 5-3
Jets: 5-5	Ravens: 4-5	Texans: 4-6	Chiefs: 3-5
Patriots: 5-3	Steelers: 3-6	Titans: 5-3	Raiders: 4-5

Divisional: 18-22 (2011-23: 608-561)	2x Game Edge: 14-13 (2011-23: 401-387)	2x Motivation Edge: 30-24 (2011-23: 510-441)	2x Spread Edge: 18-27 (2011-23: 239-211)
2x Vegas Edge: 30-41 (2011-23: 448-446)	2x Trend Edge: 12-7 (2011-23: 321-293)	Double Edge: 11-16 (2011-23: 207-185)	Triple Edge: 4-7 (2011-23: 33-37)