NFL Picks Against the Spread: Week 6, 2015

NFL Picks (Preseason 2015): 7-10-1 (-$1,420)
NFL Picks (Week 1, 2015): 10-6 (+$940)
NFL Picks (Week 2, 2015): 9-7 (-$895)
NFL Picks (Week 3, 2015): 7-9 (-$870)
NFL Picks (Week 4, 2015): 6-8-1 (-$360)
NFL Picks (Week 5, 2015): 6-6-2 (+$55)

NFL Picks (2015): 45-46-4 (-$2,550)
NFL Picks (2014): 143-133-7 (-$1,885)
NFL Picks (2013): 144-131-8 (+$5,580)
NFL Picks (2012): 130-145-8 (-$5,760)
NFL Picks (2011): 137-133-12 (-$1,925)
NFL Picks (2010): 144-131-8 (+$6,080)
NFL Picks (2009): 151-124-9 (+$3,370)
NFL Picks (2008): 136-125-6 (+$4,330)
If you don’t quite understand the line, total or anything else, go to my Sports Betting FAQ.

Vegas betting action updated Oct. 19, 5:40 p.m. ET. Follow @walterfootball for updates.

Go to Week 6 NFL Picks – Early Games

Carolina Panthers (4-0) at Seattle Seahawks (2-3)
Line: Seahawks by 7. Total: 41.
Las Vegas Hilton Advance Point Spread : Seahawks -7.5.
Walt’s Calculated Line: Seahawks -6.
Sunday, Oct 18, 4:05 ET
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The Game. Edge: None.

Survivor Update: We had 2,653 people enter, and had 2,282 still alive after Week 1. And then, Week 2 happened. The Colts, Saints, Ravens and Dolphins murdered almost everyone, and as a consequence, there were only 164 players remaining. We’re now down to 57 now, as Kansas City burned many in Week 5. The Falcons nearly lost, too. Had they gone down, almost no one would be left!

If you’re still alive, make sure you get your WalterFootball.com 2015 NFL Survivor Pool pick in.

Oh, and, check out our Fantasy Football Who to Start Weekly Rankings for weekly fantasy start-sit advice.

SEATTLE OFFENSE: It was surprising to see the Seahawks be so effective on this side of the ball at Cincinnati, especially without Marshawn Lynch. However, they failed to post a single point after the score was 24-7, so perhaps what they did earlier in the game was a fluke. After all, they’ve had trouble moving the chains against the Lions and the Bears, and both of those teams own miserable defenses.

The problem with the Seahawks has been well-documented. They have no offensive line, so Russell Wilson is constantly running for his life. Mix in bad chemistry with Jimmy Graham, and it’s no wonder that Seattle constantly sputters. The team will have issues moving the chains in this contest, as the Panthers have one of the best defenses in the NFL. They don’t have the best pass rush, but they’ll be able to get to Wilson behind his dreadful offensive line, while their spectacular secondary takes care of everything on the back end. Luke Kuechly will be back as well, so that’ll make advancing the ball even more difficult for Seattle.

Luckily for the Seahawks, it’s sounding like Lynch will return. Thomas Rawls ran well at Cincinnati, but there’s no substitute for Beast Mode. He’ll have a challenge against the Panthers’ sixth-ranked rush defense, but he should be able to wear them down in the second half, just as he’s done against almost every opponent he’s battled since joining Seattle.

CAROLINA OFFENSE: I said it was surprising that the Seahawks moved the ball against the Bengals. Perhaps a greater shock was that their defense surrendered a furious comeback. Former NFL player analysts, most of whom are untrustworthy because of their close connections with current players, will never mention this because they want someone to get paid, but Kam Chancellor has been abysmal since his return. Yes, he had that strip-sack of Calvin Johnson to seal the victory a couple of Monday nights ago, but that’s about the only positive thing he’s done since he concluded his holdout. Chancellor has appeared to be completely out of shape, so no, Michael Bennett, the 17th-richest person should not be paying him after giving him a contract just one year ago.

With Chancellor ineffective, Richard Sherman shockingly mediocre and Cary Williams abysmal, the Legion of Boom is not nearly what it once was. Cam Newton consequently could have success advancing the chains throughout this contest, especially on throws to Greg Olsen. Chancellor showed a complete inability to cover Tyler Eifert last week, so Olsen seems poised for a huge game. Bobby Wagner being out won’t help either.

Newton, as usual, will do some running. He’ll pick up some first downs with his legs. He’ll need to be the one doing this rushing because Jonathan Stewart doesn’t have much of a chance to accomplish anything positive. Stewart was very pedestrian against the bad competition the Panthers have faced, so I can’t see him having success against a defense that can still stop the run.

RECAP: I’m torn on this game. On one hand, this spread seems pretty high for a team that’s offensively challenged, and Seattle has a Thursday game on the horizon, which is not good news. On the other hand, the Seahawks are usually great at home, while Ron Rivera has never covered following a bye. This is almost a must-win for Seattle as well.

There’s one more reason to take the Seahawks, so I’ll side with them. I’m not confident in this selection, however.

FINAL THOUGHTS: I’m still torn on this game and don’t know what to make of it. There’s barely any sharp action on it either. The spread is correct, and there just don’t appear to be any advantages.

SUNDAY NOTES: I have nothing new to say about this game. I’m still very torn.

The Psychology. Edge: Panthers.

The Seahawks had a crushing overtime defeat at Cincinnati.

The Vegas. Edge: None.
Equal action.

Percentage of money on Carolina: 53% (39,000 bets)

The Trends. Edge: Seahawks.

Ron Rivera is 0-4 ATS off a bye.

Seahawks are 33-13 ATS as home favorites since 2007.

Russell Wilson is 7-4 ATS after a loss as long as he’s not favored by -10 or more.

Opening Line: Seahawks -6.5.

Opening Total: 41.5.

Weather: .

Week 6 NFL Pick: Seahawks 20, Panthers 10
Seahawks -7 (0 Units) — Incorrect; $0
Under 41 (0 Units) — Incorrect; $0
Panthers 27, Seahawks 23

San Diego Chargers (2-3) at Green Bay Packers (5-0)
Line: Packers by 10. Total: 51.
Las Vegas Hilton Advance Point Spread : Packers -9.
Walt’s Calculated Line: Packers -12.
Sunday, Oct 18, 4:25 ET
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The Game. Edge: Packers.

Emmitt on the Brink is back for Season 8! Episode 5 is posted. New evidence is brought forth against Tom Brady. Meanwhile, Ray Rice reveals his success story.

GREEN BAY OFFENSE: The big story coming out of the Packers-Rams game was that for the first time since late in the 2012 season, Aaron Rodgers threw an interception at home. The first was a fluky one, as it was tipped at the line of scrimmage. The second was a surprisingly lazy pass on Rodgers’ part, but the ball hit the ground. I’ll never understand why that wasn’t reviewed, but it doesn’t matter. The point is that despite these errors, as well as a strip-sack, the Packers were still able to win by 14. That’s how good they are.

I would be completely shocked if Rodgers, coming off one of his worst games ever, doesn’t bounce back. He’s the best quarterback in the NFL, and I have to imagine that he’ll go all out to redeem himself. That’s bad news for the San Diego secondary, which struggled in the fourth quarter Monday night. Brandon Flowers has been great in the past, but he’s been one of the league’s worst corners this season.

The Chargers are especially bad in terms of defending the run. We saw it Monday night when Le’Veon Bell and DeAngelo Williams ripped through their front seven. San Diego has given up 100-plus rushing yards to its previous four opponents, and the team ranks 31st in terms of YPC.

SAN DIEGO OFFENSE: What a mess. The Chargers looked so explosive on their opening drive Monday night, but struggled to move the chains consistently after that. The reason was their offensive line. The blocking unit appeared to be better heading into the contest, but it sustained losses to the backup left tackle and center positions. In four consecutive drives, the Chargers were guilty of two holds, a false start and a sack that resulted in a bunch of three-and-outs.

It’s hard to see things getting better on a short work week, especially against the Packers, who place massive amounts of pressure on the quarterback. They rank second in the league in sacks, behind only the Broncos. They’ve accumulated a whopping 16 sacks in the past three weeks, which is a ridiculous number. Rivers may not escape from this game without an injury.

I don’t see how the Chargers are going to move the chains at all. They’ll try to run with Melvin Gordon, but he’s proven to be ineffective for the most part. The Packers stopped the run well when they battled Marshawn Lynch, Jamaal Charles and Carlos Hyde, so even though they couldn’t bring down Todd Gurley, I have to imagine that they’ll be able to put the clamps on the other first-round back.

RECAP: Five units on the Packers, and I’m locking it in now. This spread opened at -9.5 and moved to -10, and now it’s risen to -10.5 in some books. The shops have apparently realized that they set this spread too low, and I expect it to continue to rise.

The Packers are the best team in the NFL, and they should be favored by at least 12 in this matchup. They’re so much better than the Chargers right now, who have major problems on the offensive line. MAJOR problems. The team can’t block whatsoever, and I don’t know how the coaching staff is going to make the proper adjustments on a short work week. The issues are magnified when considering how great Green Bay’s pass rush is.

Meanwhile, Rodgers has enjoyed one more day off than the Chargers, and I have to believe that he put it to good use. He just had his worst home performance in three years, and he’ll be itching to improve. I expect a great game out of him, and he’ll continue to cover at home; the Packers are 28-14 ATS as hosts this decade, which is amazing.

Still not convinced? The Packers are going into their bye, which is very significant. Favorites of six or more prior to having a week off are a terrific 36-9 ATS since 2002. The reasoning is that good teams – chances are, they are good if they’re laying six or more – tend to focus with nothing on the horizon. This should be an ugly blowout.

FINAL THOUGHTS: This number is too low, however, and it appears as though there are some -10s beginning to resurface. I still love the Packers for all of the reasons I mentioned above, as well as something I mentioned on the podcast. E-mailer Darren L. pointed out to me that since Week 6 of 2014, the Chargers are 3-13 against the spread, and all of those covers were late, miracle comebacks (at Ravens, at 49ers, vs. Lions). San Diego could easily be 0-16 against the spread since last October, which is just crazy.

SUNDAY NOTES: There are plenty of -10s available, so take that now. Don’t risk this spread rising prior to kickoff.

The Psychology. Edge: None.
No edge found.

The Vegas. Edge: Chargers.

No surprise where this money is going.

Percentage of money on Green Bay: 70% (45,000 bets)

The Trends. Edge: Packers.

Packers are 28-14 ATS at home since 2010.

Aaron Rodgers is 63-35 ATS since 2009 (9-5 ATS as a favorite of 12+).

Opening Line: Packers -9.5.

Opening Total: 49.

Weather: .

Week 6 NFL Pick: Packers 34, Chargers 13
Packers -10 (5 Units) — Incorrect; -$550
Under 51 (0 Units) — Correct; $0
Survivor Pick (2-3) – NFL Survivor Pick Advice
Packers 27, Chargers 20

Baltimore Ravens (1-4) at San Francisco 49ers (1-4)
Line: Ravens by 2.5. Total: 43.5.
Las Vegas Hilton Advance Point Spread : Ravens -3.
Walt’s Calculated Line: 49ers -1.5.
Sunday, Oct 18, 4:25 ET
Comment on this game

The Game. Edge: None.

A reminder that Jerks of the Week for this week is up, so just click the link. This week’s jerks entry is Jerks of the Gym Pool.

BALTIMORE OFFENSE: Joe Flacco desperately needs Steve Smith back. According to an ESPN report, the Ravens are “very hopeful” that Smith will be able to return to the field this Sunday. If so, that’ll be huge; not only is Smith their most-talented proven receiver by far, but he’s also now the heart and soul of the team with Terrell Suggs gone. He’ll give Baltimore more energy when he comes back.

Having said that, Flacco could have a good game against this San Francisco defense without Smith. The 49ers were ravaged by offseason departures and have consequently struggled mightily on this side of the ball. Their secondary, which lost both starting cornerbacks, ranks 30th in YPA. There is no pass rush to speak of either outside of Aaron Lynch – four sacks in the past four games – so Flacco should have plenty of time to locate his receivers downfield, regardless of whether or not Smith plays.

The Ravens, of course, will attempt to establish the run, and they may have Justin Forsett at their disposal. Forsett suffered an injury last week, but he avoided a high-ankle sprain, so he has a chance to suit up. If so, having him will obviously help against the 49ers’ middling rush defense.

SAN FRANCISCO OFFENSE: Colin Kaepernick has struggled in most weeks, but he was surprisingly effective against the Giants, though they appeared to be sleepwalking in anticipation of battling Philadelphia on Monday night. However, Kaepernick was sharp, accurate and decisive – three things he wasn’t in the previous four contests. Can he keep it going this weekagainst Baltimore’s defense? Why not?

The Ravens came into this season with a promising stop unit, and they looked great in the season opener, but they’ve lost countless players to injury, including Suggs. Jimmy Smith, meanwhile, is banged up and not even close to 100 percent. That would explain how Josh McCown accumulated 457 passing yards this past Sunday. If McCown could light up the Ravens on the road, why couldn’t Kaepernick do so at home?

Baltimore can at least play the run well; it has given up more than 76 rushing yards to just one opponent this season, and that happened to be the Steelers and Le’Veon Bell. Carlos Hyde is a talented runner, but he doesn’t have the proper blocking to be as effective as he should be, so I think the Ravens can limit him for the most part.

RECAP: I’d like the Ravens if they were a road dog, but why are they favored as visitors? They’re coming off a loss to the Browns, while the 49ers played well on national TV against the Giants. I thought this would be 49ers -1.5 or -2, or something.

I still think Baltimore is the right side. The 49ers just had a draining loss, and they could be looking ahead to their Thursday night tilt against the Seahawks, which will be their Super Bowl. Here’s something else to consider: Jim Harbaugh may have called his brother John to give him inside info on his former team. Considering how Jim was run out of town, he may want John to take care of business against them in this contest.

I’m not betting on this, however. Like I said, I don’t like that Baltimore is favored. The Ravens also haven’t covered a closing line yet, which is a concern.

FINAL THOUGHTS: This is another late game I don’t know what to make of. I still don’t understand why the Ravens are favored, but I’m not taking a San Francisco team that could be super flat. The sharps haven’t weighed in.

SUNDAY NOTES: Yet another crappy afternoon game. Good job by Roger Goodell stacking so many games at 1 p.m. this week. A true visionary.

The Psychology. Edge: None.
No edge found.

The Vegas. Edge: None.
Equal action.

Percentage of money on San Francisco: 51% (24,000 bets)

The Trends. Edge: None.

Opening Line: Ravens -3.

Opening Total: 43.5.

Weather: .

Week 6 NFL Pick: Ravens 23, 49ers 20
Ravens -2.5 (0 Units) — Incorrect; $0
Under 43.5 (0 Units) — Incorrect; $0
49ers 25, Ravens 20

New England Patriots (4-0) at Indianapolis Colts (3-2)
Line: Patriots by 10.5. Total: 54.
Las Vegas Hilton Advance Point Spread : Patriots -5.
Walt’s Calculated Line: Patriots -3 (Luck) or Patriots -10 (Hasselbeck).
Sunday, Oct 18, 8:30 ET
Comment on this game

The Game. Edge: Patriots.

I used to love making fun of GameCenter comments. The people on there were such idiots. There were even perverts like Aaron3619, who always asked chicks for their pictures so that he could carry them around.

I planned to mess with Aaron3619 as a fake user named TexasGirl1234, but NFL.com shut down its GameCenter and implemented Facebook comments instead. This enraged me, so get revenge, I made a fake Facebook account named Mario Migelini to troll people. Other readers followed suit and made fake accounts of their own.

Unfortunately, I’ve only been able to post as Mario. I tried to troll as Vivian and Kevin, but I kept getting the following error:

I Googled that error, and I came across several Facebook help pages where people – real ones; not trollers – were complaining about the same issue. Unfortunately, none of them had a solution; once they were blocked, they were blocked for good.

Here’s an example of the complaints:

I pretty much agree with all of that. There’s nothing worse than idealistic douche bags in a position of power. The good news is that I was able to successfully troll as Mario.

Go here to see all of the NFL.com Troll Posts from myself and other trollers.

NEW ENGLAND OFFENSE: Think Tom Brady will be pumped for this game? The Colts found out that he was cheating and turned him in, which broke some kind of code, even though Indianapolis was trying to beat New… England… yeah, this all sounds stupid, but Brady will have some sort of weird motivation to defeat the team he cheated against. He looks completely different than the rotting corpse who struggled in the preseason, as he’s been delivering the ball quickly to Rob Gronkowski and Julian Edelman with great success.

There’s plenty of reason to be skeptical, however, as Brady lit up three bad defenses thus far, and the exception was the Bills, who couldn’t stop committing penalties. However, the Colts won’t offer much resistance either. The secondary we all saw struggle on a Monday night against the Jets has gotten better because everyone has returned to the field, but there are still liabilities in the defense. For instance, the Colts have a pass rush that is tied for the second-fewest sacks in the NFL, so even though Brady was sacked five times in the first half against the Cowboys, I don’t know if Indianapolis has the personnel to take advantage of this.

The Colts at least were stronger against the run in Houston, limiting Arian Foster and Alfred Blue to just 68 yards on 26 carries. However, stopping Dion Lewis and LeGarrette Blount will be a different animal. Indianapolis could afford to focus on the Texans’ backs because it didn’t fear Ryan Mallett or Brian Hoyer. You have to believe that the Colts will be fearful of Brady, considering that he’s had their number over the years.

INDIANAPOLIS OFFENSE: The Colts have been obliterated in their matchups against the Patriots throughout the Andrew Luck era. One thing is different this time, and it’s that Indianapolis can finally run the ball.

Frank Gore has been a terrific signing, posting lines of 14-86-2 against the Titans and 22-98-1 at Houston. He has helped carry the team amid Luck’s injury, and the Colts will want to depend on him once again in this contest, considering that the Patriots have had issues stopping the rush. They’ve given up 4.51 yards per carry, which puts them 26th in that category. Gore can totally take advantage of that – unless, of course, the Patriots jump out to a huge lead right away, forcing Indianapolis to abandon the run.

As for Luck, most reports indicate that he’s set to go. Luck has practiced without limitations, so perhaps he’s back to 100 percent, or somewhere close. If so, he could have some success against a Patriot secondary that isn’t nearly as good as the last time he saw them, thanks to Darrelle Revis’ departure. Malcolm Butler is just mediocre, while Tarell Brown has disappointed, but neither has been fully exposed because aside from Ben Roethlisberger in Week 1, the Patriots haven’t battled a top-tier quarterback yet this season. I’d say Luck would be able to exploit this matchup, but I don’t trust his offensive line. His blocking is terrible, while New England is tied for fourth in sacks.

RECAP: All anyone is saying is that the Patriots are going to smash the Colts because of revenge for Deflategate. I think that’s stupid. If New England wins big, it won’t be because of motivation. The Colts will be equally motivated to dispatch a team that cheated against them. They’ve had trouble with New England in the Luck era, so this is their chance at revenge.

I actually like the Colts here for three units – assuming Luck plays. If he’s ruled out, I’ll drop all units and actually change my selection to New England. But this spread is absurd with Luck on the field. New England is not 10.5 points better than a Luck-quarterback Indianapolis team. It’s just not. Not even close. The Patriots are better, but they’re not 10.5 points better than any competent squad.

The Patriots are coming off a perfect win, which has usually been trouble for teams. Meanwhile, the Colts have had extra time to prepare for this contest, and I’m sure they’re pissed about everyone talking about how New England is just going to demolish them. The Patriots are largely untested, and I’m not yet sure that they’re as great as everyone’s making them out to be. Perhaps they are, but this roster is worse than the 2014 version – even the biggest New England homer would admit that – and that team nearly lost in the divisional round of the playoffs. I’ll be absolutely shocked if they go undefeated, and I’ll be mildly surprised if they cover this ridiculously inflated number.

FINAL THOUGHTS: This spread is a joke. Patriots -10!? There’s no way in hell New England is about two touchdowns better than Indianapolis. No freaking way.

SUNDAY NOTES: This spread is all over the place. It’s -9, -9.5 or -10 in most books, with Bovada offering +10.5. I’m good with locking that one in.

SUNDAY NIGHT: I have the Colts going for three units, so bet three units on the Patriots. You can get New England at -9 on CRIS or -9.5 in most other places. Both spreads should cover because I have Indianapolis at +10.5. It’s actually now +11 at Bovada, so if you want to lose money, take that.

The Psychology. Edge: None.
The motivation for the Patriots is obvious, but the Colts want revenge as well.

The Vegas. Edge: Colts.

No surprise that all of the money is coming in on the Patriots.

Percentage of money on New England: 83% (130,000 bets)

The Trends. Edge: Colts.

Tom Brady is 179-59 as a starter (136-97 ATS).

Tom Brady is 13-5 ATS in domes.

Bill Belichick is 17-5 ATS in his second-consecutive road game.

Andrew Luck is 19-7 ATS at home.

Andrew Luck is 6-0 ATS as a home underdog.

Opening Line: Patriots -7.5.

Opening Total: 55.

Weather: Dome.

Week 6 NFL Pick: Patriots 27, Colts 24
Colts +10.5 (3 Units) — Correct; +$300
Under 54 (0 Units) — Incorrect; $0
Patriots 34, Colts 27

New York Giants (3-2) at Philadelphia Eagles (2-3)
Line: Eagles by 3.5. Total: 50.5.
Las Vegas Hilton Advance Point Spread : Eagles -3.
Walt’s Calculated Line: Eagles -1.
Monday, Oct 19, 8:30 ET
Comment on this game

The Game. Edge: Eagles.

This week on ESPN, we’re going to have Mike Tirico and Jon Gruden calling the shots instead the great preseason homers like Kevin Reilly, Ron Wolfley and Don Tollefson, inept ESPN guys Emmitt, Herman Edwards and Matt Millen, and mindless automatons like Dan Fouts. Here’s what it would sound like if these seven clowns (and some special guests) were calling this game:

Reilly: Welcome to the city of Philadelphia, home of Brotherly Love, the Liberty Bell, the Rocky Statue, great cheese steaks and everything else that happens to be awesome, including my Philadelphia Eagles. Guys, I’ve been waiting for this game all year. My Eagles have struggled in the win column, but we’d be 5-0 right now if the officials didn’t screw us over. It’s ridiculous that they’re denying Chip like that. Chip won’t be denied, and Sam Bradford is the best quarterback in the NFL. Who are they even playing tonight? The Vagiants and Sheli Manning? Get it? Vagiants and SHEli Manning!? Ha!

Emmitt: Mike, or… uhh… Jose, I do not understand this jokes. Eli is the rightfulness name of the Giants quarterback, so why do you add the alphabet “sh” before his first names? And why do you add the alphabet “va” before the name of the Giant? Or do all football team do this? Do the Cowboys change his name to Vacowboys?

Tollefson: Emmitt, it’s a play on words, and not a very good one. Let’s get one thing clear: Eli Manning is not a woman; otherwise, he’d be in my apartment right now cooking and cleaning naked.

Millen: I kind of wish Eli happened to be a woman. I used my Kielbasa Sextant to determine his percentage of USDA Man, and it wouldn’t register. Either my precious Kielbasa Sextant is broken, or Eli has an undefined USDA Man rating. This can either be good or bad. If he’s too high, he would be a god amongst men, and if it’s too low, he’s rubbish and should be thrown into a volcano. To me, the variance is too risky.

Herm: SHOULDN’T THROW SOMEONE INTO A VOLCANO! SHOULDN’T TOSS SOMEONE INTO A VOLCANO! SHOULDN’T HEAVE ANYONE INTO A VOLCANO! SHOULDN’T HURL ANYONE INTO A VOLCANO! SHOULDN’T PUSH SOMEONE INTO A VOLCANO! SHOULDN’T PULL ANYONE INTO A VOLCANO! BUT THEN HOW DID YOU PULL THEM INTO THE VOLCANO!? WERE YOU ALREADY IN THE VOLCANO WHEN YOU PULLED THEM!? HOW DID YOU DO THAT!? ARE YOU IMMUNE TO FIRE!? ARE YOU IMMUNE TO HEAT!? ARE YOU IMMUNE TO LAVA!? HERM WISHES HE WERE IMMUNE TO LAVA! THEN HERM COULD EXPLORE A VOLCANO! HERM WOULD FIND GREAT THINGS IN A VOLCANO! HERM WOULD FIND TERRIFIC THINGS IN A VOLCANO! HERM WOULD FIND SPECIAL THINGS IN A VOLCANO! WHAT SPECIAL THINGS!? HERM DOESN’T KNOW! HERM’S UNAWARE! HERM’S CLUELESS! HERM’S IGNORANT! WAIT, WHAT’S HERM IGNORANT ABOUT!? WHY’S HERM IGNORANT!? HOW DID HERM GET IGNORANT!? HERM’S GONNA TRY TO FIGURE OUT WHY HE’S IGNORANT! HERM’S GOING TO… uhh… umm…

Fouts: And here’s what he means by ignorant. Being ignorant means you’re lacking knowledge, information or awareness about something in particular. That’s what the Merriam-Webster Dictionary defines it as. Who’s Merriam-Webster? Great question. It was obviously someone named Merriam-Webster. It’s possible that their first name was Merriam and their last name was Webster. Or, perhaps their first name was Webster and their last name was Merriam. It’s also possible that Merriam-Webster is one name, or perhaps not a name at all! The creator of the dictionary could be named neither Merriam nor Webster, nor Merriam-Webster, nor Webster-Merriam, nor any other combination of the two names, one name, zero names, or three names. I’m not sure where the third name came from, or what the third name is, but one thing is for sure: We can’t find it in the dictionary, whether that’s the Merriam version, the Webster version, the Merriam-Webster version, or the Webster-Merriam version!

Wolfley: I MET MERRIAM-WEBSTER ONCE. HE WAS REALLY A LEOPARD WEARING LEATHER PANTS AND HOLDING A SUITCASE FULL OF BANANAS AND ORANGES. I SAID HELLO TO HIM, AND HE TOLD ME TO PUT A HOSE IN MY UNDERPANTS, SO THAT’S EXACTLY WHAT I DID.

Millen: So, tell me about this hose in your underpants.

Charles Davis: Matt, he first has to describe what sort of underpants he was wearing, Matt. Did you know there are lots of types of underpants, Matt? Let’s begin with tighty-whities, Matt. They’re tight and they’re white, Matt! There’s also a variant that’s not white, and they’re called briefs, Matt. How about boxers, Matt? What about boxer briefs, Matt? How about going commando, Matt? Do you know what is, Matt? I’ll give you three guesses, oh wait, you already forfeit, Matt? That’s when you wear no underpants, Matt.

Millen: I knew that! I always prefer my 100-percent USDA Men to go commando!

Reilly: OK, that’s enough, sickos. Shut up before I slit all of your throats for disrupting me watching my Eagles! We’ll be back after this!

PHILADELPHIA OFFENSE: The Eagles finally clicked on this side of the ball last week, though they began sluggishly with some bad turnovers on throws from Sam Bradford. They eventually got their act together and scored 39 points. However, this came against the Saints, who may have the worst defense in the NFL. The Giants have some liabilities in their stop unit, but they obviously aren’t nearly as bad as New Orleans.

New York’s main defensive problem is that it can’t get to the quarterback effectively. The team has an inconsistent pass rush, which sacked Colin Kaepernick just twice Sunday night. Kaepernick was consequently able to dissect the secondary in a rare quality performance for him. This has to be music to Bradford’s ears because Philadelphia’s offensive line has been equally atrocious as San Francisco’s. If Kaepernick was able to throw on the Giants, why couldn’t Bradford, especially considering that Prince Amukamara is out?

Of course, it’ll help Bradford if his rushing attack is as potent as it was versus New Orleans. That’s unlikely to happen. While the Saints are 27th against the rush in terms of YPC, the Giants are third. Granted, New York hasn’t been fully tested yet, but the Eagles have had trouble pounding the ball against most teams because of their atrocious offensive line. I don’t see why that unit would suddenly improve.

NEW YORK OFFENSE: Like the Giants, the Eagles have some glaring issues on this side of the ball, particularly in the secondary. Byron Maxwell has been horrible, while the other corners haven’t been much better. Fortunately for Philadelphia, the Giants are dealing with some injuries at receiver. Odell Beckham Jr. and Brandon LaFell are both banged up, and even if they play, they may not be 100 percent. This is obviously a big concern, as Manning was throwing to no-name scrubs in the second half of a near-loss to San Francisco.

Manning will at least have time in the pocket to find those no-name scrubs. The Eagles have an inconsistent pass rush. They were able to sack Drew Brees on five occasions this past week, but their ability to get to the quarterback has been hit-or-miss for the most part in 2015. It will likely be “miss” in this contest, as the Giants have surrendered the second-fewest sacks in the NFL this season, trailing only the Jets.

One thing the Eagles’ defense has going for them is that the Giants don’t run the ball well whatsoever. Philadelphia is stout against the rush, so I don’t see anything happening there. However, Shane Vereen could have a solid outing, as the Eagles haven’t been particularly strong against pass-catching backs.

RECAP: I like the Giants as a road underdog, and I also think this spread is stupid. Eagles -4 at home says that they are three points better than New York because their abysmal homefield “advantage” is worth just one point. Thus, this number is incorrect.

However, I don’t really like New York very much because the team is leaking oil right now. The team is dealing with so many injuries at the moment. Beckham and Amukamara are big-time players who will either be out or limited. The Eagles are gaining confidence right now, so I could see them covering. I’m still taking the Giants, but for no units.

FINAL THOUGHTS: I’ve vowed not to make any unit changes unless injuries involved. Well, the only reason I didn’t bet the Giants was because Odell Beckham Jr. was thought to be out. Beckham will be on the field, so I’m willing to place one unit on New York.

I’ve gotten a lot of questions about this spread. The sharps placed some medium-sized bets on the Eagles earlier in the week, but they then took the Giants big Monday. The earlier spread shift was phantom line movement that we see sometimes. Part of it is also Beckham’s availability, which is why I’m now taking the Giants, albeit on a bad number. I’d go two units if I could still get +5.5, but that’s long gone.

The Psychology. Edge: None.
No edge found.

The Vegas. Edge: Eagles.
The Giants are a slight public dog.

Percentage of money on New York: 62% (90,000 bets)

The Trends. Edge: Giants.

History: Road Team has won 11 of the last 16 meetings.

History: Eagles have won 11 the last 14 meetings.

Giants are 43-24 ATS on the road since 2006 as long as they’re not favored by 3.5 or more.

Eli Manning is 35-24 ATS as an underdog since 2007.

Eagles are 15-29 ATS at home since 2010.

Opening Line: Eagles -3.5.

Opening Total: 50.

Weather: .

Week 6 NFL Pick: Eagles 24, Giants 23
Giants +3.5 (1 Unit) — Incorrect; -$110
Under 50.5 (0 Units) — Correct; $0
Eagles 27, Giants 7

Week 6 NFL Picks – Early Games
Atlanta at New Orleans, Washington at New York Jets, Arizona at Pittsburgh, Kansas City at Minnesota, Cincinnati at Buffalo, Chicago at Detroit, Denver at Cleveland, Houston at Jacksonville, Miami at Tennessee

Prop/Teaser/Parlay Picks
A list of some of my favorite team/player prop picks this week
(Offense & defensive ROY picks to be counted whenever winners are announced.) Picks carried over on a week-to-week basis will be in black.

Panthers +270 (0.5 Units) — Correct; +$135

Patriots -400 (0.5 Units) — Correct; +$50

The spread is way too high in the New England game, but the Patriots should be able to win. I think -400 is reasonable. Meanwhile, I think anything can happen in the Carolina-Seattle game – a Seattle blowout, a close game going either way, or an upset. The Panthers might be able to beat this reeling Seahawk squad, so +270 is a decent price.

NFL Picks - Nov. 15

2025 NFL Mock Draft - Nov. 13

NFL Power Rankings - Nov. 12

Fantasy Football Rankings - Sept. 4

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Last Week's NFL Picks Against The Spread (Week 11, 2024): 6-7 (-$1,275)
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2024 NFL Picks of the Month: 1-2, 50.0% (-$500)

2024 Season NFL Picks Against The Spread: 78-79-6, 49.7% (-$4,565)
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1999 Season NFL Picks Against The Spread: 27-41-3 (39.7%)
2000 Season NFL Picks Against The Spread: 128-123-8 (51.0%)
2001 Season NFL Picks Against The Spread: 127-122-7 (51.0%)
2002 Season NFL Picks Against The Spread: 123-136-7 (47.5%)
2003 Season NFL Picks Against The Spread: 146-126-8 (53.7%)
2004 Season NFL Picks Against The Spread: 157-123-8 (56.1%)
2005 Season NFL Picks Against The Spread: 156-126-11 (55.3%)
2006 Season NFL Picks Against The Spread: 151-135-9 (52.8%)
2007 Season NFL Picks Against The Spread: 162-135-10, 54.5% (+$3,585)
2008 Season NFL Picks Against The Spread: 148-140-7, 51.4% (+$6,105)
2009 Season NFL Picks Against The Spread: 151-124-9, 54.9% (+$4,235)
2010 Season NFL Picks Against The Spread: 144-131-8, 52.4% (+$5,880)
2011 Season NFL Picks Against The Spread: 137-133-12, 50.7% (-$1,335)
2012 Season NFL Picks Against The Spread: 130-145-8, 47.3% (-$7,445)
2013 Season NFL Picks Against The Spread: 144-131-8, 52.4% (+$7,825)
2014 Season NFL Picks Against The Spread: 143-133-7, 51.8% (-$1,885)
2015 Season NFL Picks Against The Spread: 134-138-12, 49.3% (-$3,215)
2016 Season NFL Picks Against The Spread: 148-127-10, 53.8% (+$780)
2017 Season NFL Picks Against The Spread: 137-140-8, 49.5% (-$4,300)
2018 Season NFL Picks Against The Spread: 140-134-14, 51.3% (+$845)
2019 Season NFL Picks Against The Spread: 149-128-9, 53.6% (+$1,200)
2020 Season NFL Picks Against The Spread: 138-124-7, 52.7% (+$9,350)
2021 Season NFL Picks Against The Spread: 153-141-2, 51.9% (+$210)
2022 Season NFL Picks Against The Spread: 154-134-8, 53.5% (+$9,860)
2023 Season NFL Picks Against The Spread: 144-141-7, 50.5% (-$7,285)

2002 Season 2-3 Unit NFL Picks: 41-49-2 (45.6%)
2003 Season 2-3 Unit NFL Picks: 52-51-2 (50.5%)
2004 Season 2-3 Unit NFL Picks: 65-44-3 (59.6%)
2005 Season 2-3 Unit NFL Picks: 77-61-1 (55.8%)
2006 Season 2-3 Unit NFL Picks: 65-61-4 (51.6%)
2007 Season 2-3 Unit NFL Picks: 83-59-5, 58.5% (+$4,110)
2008 Season 2-3 Unit NFL Picks: 44-57-3, 43.6% (-$3,510)
2009 Season 2-3 Unit NFL Picks: 49-35-3, 58.3% (+$2,260)
2010 Season 2-3 Unit NFL Picks: 51-38-4, 57.3% (+$3,180)
2011 Season 2-3 Unit NFL Picks: 44-51-3, 46.3% (-$2,715)
2012 Season 2-3 Unit NFL Picks: 45-50-2, 47.4% (-$2,130)
2013 Season 2-3 Unit NFL Picks: 38-42, 47.5% (-$2,890)
2015 Season 2-3 Unit NFL Picks: 47-44-1, 51.6% (-$820)
2016 Season 2-3 Unit NFL Picks: 42-35-3, 54.5% (+$475)
2017 Season 2-3 Unit NFL Picks: 32-40-3, 43.8% (-$2,395)
2018 Season 2-3 Unit NFL Picks: 52-41-2, 55.9% (+$2,670)
2019 Season 2-3 Unit NFL Picks: 44-36-2, 55.0% (+$655)
2020 Season 2-3 Unit NFL Picks: 47-43-3, 52.2% (-$1,965)
2021 Season 2-3 Unit NFL Picks: 50-50, 50.0% (-$1,570)
2022 Season 2-3 Unit NFL Picks: 56-44-2, 56.0% (+$1,860)
2023 Season 2-3 Unit NFL Picks: 44-40-3, 52.4% (+$285)

2002 Season 4-5 Unit NFL Picks: 11-12 (47.8%)
2003 Season 4-5 Unit NFL Picks: 16-13-1 (55.2%)
2004 Season 4-5 Unit NFL Picks: 18-11 (62.1%)
2005 Season 4-5 Unit NFL Picks: 25-22-1 (53.2%)
2006 Season 4-5 Unit NFL Picks: 21-29-1 (42.0%)
2007 Season 4-5 Unit NFL Picks: 35-30-2, 53.8% (+$420)
2008 Season 4-5 Unit NFL Picks: 39-26-2, 60.0% (+$4,055)
2009 Season 4-5 Unit NFL Picks: 29-26, 52.7% (+$330)
2010 Season 4-5 Unit NFL Picks: 32-22, 59.3% (+$4,790)
2011 Season 4-5 Unit NFL Picks: 14-14, 50.0% (-$1,260)
2012 Season 4-5 Unit NFL Picks: 14-21, 40.0% (-$3,650)
2013 Season 4-5 Unit NFL Picks: 17-9-3, 65.4% (+$2,970)
2015 Season 4-5 Unit NFL Picks: 17-16-2, 51.5% (-$1,120)
2016 Season 4-5 Unit NFL Picks: 21-22-5, 48.8% (-$1,465)
2017 Season 4-5 Unit NFL Picks: 20-22-1, 47.6% (-$1,595)
2018 Season 4-5 Unit NFL Picks: 27-32-1, 45.8% (-$4,735)
2019 Season 4-5 Unit NFL Picks: 37-27-2, 57.8% (+$2,185)
2020 Season 4-5 Unit NFL Picks: 37-22-1, 62.7% (+$5,515)
2021 Season 4-5 Unit NFL Picks: 32-32-1, 50.0% (-$725)
2022 Season 4-5 Unit NFL Picks: 41-30-1, 57.8% (+$3,725)
2023 Season 4-5 Unit NFL Picks: 32-27-1, 54.2% (-$1,310)

2001 Season Over-Under: 3-2 (60.0%)
2002 Season Over-Under: 121-91-3 (57.1%)
2003 Season Over-Under: 126-132-2 (48.8%)
2004 Season Over-Under: 139-124-4 (52.9%)
2005 Season Over-Under: 117-145-4 (44.7%)
2006 Season Over-Under: 129-132-5 (49.4%)
2007 Season Over-Under: 136-145-3, 48.4% (-$1,900)
2008 Season Over-Under: 137-125-6, 52.3% (+$860)
2009 Season Over-Under: 128-135-4, 48.7% (-$3,195)
2010 Season Over-Under: 128-135-5, 48.7% (-$5)
2011 Season Over-Under: 131-131-5, 50.0% (+$135)
2012 Season Over-Under: 125-121-5, 50.8% (+$30)
2013 Season Over-Under: 132-130-5, 50.4% (-$340)
2015 Season Over-Under: 143-119-5, 54.6% ($0)
2016 Season Over-Under: 123-141-1, 46.6% (+$95)
2017 Season Over-Under: 136-139-2, 49.5% (+$640)
2018 Season Over-Under: 118-128-3, 48.0% (-$225)
2019 Season Over-Under: 126-133-4, 48.6% (-$50)
2020 Season Over-Under: 141-122-6, 53.6% ($0)
2021 Season Over-Under: 132-151-3, 46.6% ($0)
2022 Season Over-Under: 133-149-2, 47.2% (-$225)
2023 Season Over-Under: 145-135-3, 51.8% (+$200)

2007 Season Prop/ML/Teaser/Parlay Picks: +$1,035
2008 Season Prop/ML/Teaser/Parlay Picks: +$1,775
2009 Season Prop/ML/Teaser/Parlay Picks: +$865
2010 Season Prop/ML/Teaser/Parlay Picks: -$200
2011 Season Prop/ML/Teaser/Parlay Picks: +$590
2012 Season Prop/ML/Teaser/Parlay Picks: -$1,685
2013 Season Prop/ML/Teaser/Parlay Picks: +$2,245
2015 Season Prop/ML/Teaser/Parlay Picks: -$855
2016 Season Prop/ML/Teaser/Parlay Picks: -$275
2017 Season Prop/ML/Teaser/Parlay Picks: -$510
2018 Season Prop/ML/Teaser/Parlay Picks: +$1,495
2019 Season Prop/ML/Teaser/Parlay Picks: -$1,715
2020 Season Prop/ML/Teaser/Parlay Picks: +$4,975
2021 Season Prop/ML/Teaser/Parlay Picks: +$3,455
2022 Season Prop/ML/Teaser/Parlay Picks: +$5,720
2023 Season Prop/ML/Teaser/Parlay Picks: -$2,565

2006 NFL Picks of the Month: 3-3 (50%)
2007 NFL Picks of the Month: 3-3, 50.0% (-$400)
2008 NFL Picks of the Month: 6-1, 85.7% (+$3,720)
2009 NFL Picks of the Month: 3-2, 60.0% (+$640)
2010 NFL Picks of the Month: 2-4, 33.3% (-$1,810)
2011 NFL Picks of the Month: 5-2, 71.4% (+$1,870)
2012 NFL Picks of the Month: 3-2, 60.0% (+$560)
2013 NFL Picks of the Month: 6-0, 100% (+$3,900)
2014 NFL Picks of the Month: 2-4, 33.3% (-$1,350)
2015 NFL Picks of the Month: 3-3, 50.0% (-$100)
2016 NFL Picks of the Month: 5-1, 83.3% (+$2,780)
2017 NFL Picks of the Month: 4-2, 66.7% (+$1,040)
2018 NFL Picks of the Month: 4-3, 57.1% (-$640)
2019 NFL Picks of the Month: 3-3-1, 50.0% (-$625)
2020 NFL Picks of the Month: 3-2, 60.0% (+$665)
2021 NFL Picks of the Month: 2-3, 40.0% (-$920)
2022 NFL Picks of the Month: 3-4, 42.9% (-$1,615)
2023 NFL Picks of the Month: 2-5, 28.6% (-$2,550)

Career NFL Picks Against The Spread: 3,499-3,231-202, 52.0% (+$17,105)
Career 2-3 Unit NFL Picks: 1,126-1,010-57 (52.7%)
Career 4-5 Unit NFL Picks: 568-502-25 (53.1%)
Career Over-Under: 2,935-2,908-76 (50.2%)
Career Second-Half NFL Picks: 23-16-1 (59.0%)
Career NFL Picks of the Month: 47-36-1 (56.6%)

My Team-by-Team ATS Record
This section shows how well I do when picking each team this year. The purpose is to see how well I read each team. Pushes are not displayed. Winning/losing streak in parentheses.

Cowboys: 5-3	Bears: 4-5	Bucs: 6-4	49ers: 6-3
Eagles: 4-5	Lions: 8-1	Falcons: 5-5	Cardinals: 8-2
Giants: 3-6	Packers: 5-3	Panthers: 4-6	Rams: 4-5
Redskins: 4-5	Vikings: 3-6	Saints: 5-5	Seahawks: 6-2

Bills: 3-7	Bengals: 2-8	Colts: 5-5	Broncos: 6-4
Dolphins: 3-6	Browns: 3-6	Jaguars: 2-7	Chargers: 5-3
Jets: 5-5	Ravens: 4-5	Texans: 4-6	Chiefs: 3-5
Patriots: 5-3	Steelers: 3-6	Titans: 5-3	Raiders: 4-5

Divisional: 18-22 (2011-23: 608-561)	2x Game Edge: 14-13 (2011-23: 401-387)	2x Motivation Edge: 30-24 (2011-23: 510-441)	2x Spread Edge: 18-27 (2011-23: 239-211)
2x Vegas Edge: 30-41 (2011-23: 448-446)	2x Trend Edge: 12-7 (2011-23: 321-293)	Double Edge: 11-16 (2011-23: 207-185)	Triple Edge: 4-7 (2011-23: 33-37)