NFL Picks Against the Spread: Week 6, 2015

NFL Picks (Preseason 2015): 7-10-1 (-$1,420)
NFL Picks (Week 1, 2015): 10-6 (+$940)
NFL Picks (Week 2, 2015): 9-7 (-$895)
NFL Picks (Week 3, 2015): 7-9 (-$870)
NFL Picks (Week 4, 2015): 6-8-1 (-$360)
NFL Picks (Week 5, 2015): 6-6-2 (+$55)

NFL Picks (2015): 45-46-4 (-$2,550)
NFL Picks (2014): 143-133-7 (-$1,885)
NFL Picks (2013): 144-131-8 (+$5,580)
NFL Picks (2012): 130-145-8 (-$5,760)
NFL Picks (2011): 137-133-12 (-$1,925)
NFL Picks (2010): 144-131-8 (+$6,080)
NFL Picks (2009): 151-124-9 (+$3,370)
NFL Picks (2008): 136-125-6 (+$4,330)
If you don’t quite understand the line, total or anything else, go to my Sports Betting FAQ.

Vegas betting action updated Oct. 19, 5:40 p.m. ET. Follow @walterfootball for updates.

Go to Week 6 NFL Picks – Late Games

Atlanta Falcons (5-0) at New Orleans Saints (1-4)
Line: Falcons by 4. Total: 52.5.
Las Vegas Hilton Advance Point Spread : Falcons -2.5.
Walt’s Calculated Line: Falcons -3.5.
Thursday, Oct 15, 8:25 ET
Comment on this game

The Game. Edge: Falcons.

WEEK 5 RECAP: I wrote the following prior to Monday night:

Good news, bad news from Week 5. The good news is that I had a winning week, going 6-5-2, +$385 heading into Monday night. The bad news is two-fold:

1. I continued to have some very rotten luck. I had a three-unit play on the Chiefs, and they were up 17-3 with the ball in the red zone. Jamaal Charles tore his ACL, and that was that. Kansas City didn’t score a single point after that. Meanwhile, in Oakland, Sebastian Janikowski missed two easy field goals, and thanks to a pick-six, the Raiders failed to cover another three-unit wager of mine. Had Janikowski connected on just one of those kicks, that wager would’ve hit as well. So, instead of going 8-3-2, +$1,045, I had just an above-average week.

2. I once again made the mistake of changing units. This has cost me all year. I thought I was making good decisions this week, but dropping the Browns (4 to 2) and 49ers (3 to 1) and moving up the Saints (0 to 0.5) really hurt. If I didn’t switch units, I would be up $840. And if the two bad beats didn’t happen? We’d be talking +$1,500, which would be an all-time great week. Unfortunately, my stupidity and bad luck got in the way.

With that in mind, I hereby vow not to make changes to my unit counts any longer unless there happens to be a significant injury.

Monday night sucked. The Chargers sustained two more injuries to their offensive line and then inexplicably dropped three QBDK interceptions, yet the superior quarterback was the one who threw the pick-six. San Diego seemed like the right side, and if its blockers didn’t get hurt, it probably would’ve covered, as the team moved the ball well prior to losing its left tackle. Variance sucks sometimes.

WEEK 6 BETTING TRENDS: I’ve been discussing overreaction spreads, line movements of two or more against the Las Vegas Hilton Advance Point Spread that weren’t impacted by injuries. They were 5-6 ATS in Weeks 2-3, but 35-22 ATS in 2014. Here were the overreaction spreads from Week 5:

Before Week 3	After Week 3
Seahawks -2.5	Seahawks +3
Chargers -6.5	Chargers -3.5
Chiefs -12	Chiefs -9.5

Another blegh. Of course, the Chiefs were the right side, but suffered an unfortunate injury. The Seahawks pushed. The Chargers are pending.

Here are the Week 6 overreaction line movements:

Before Week 5	After Week 5
Lions -6.5	Lions -3
Colts +5	Colts +8
Broncos -5.5	Broncos -3.5

The first movement is absurd. Lions -6.5 was way too high, but Lions -3 is saying that Detroit and Chicago are even, which I have a hard time believing. Meanwhile, the Bills are now home underdogs because the Bengals engineered a comeback versus a team that lost at St. Louis (with no Todd Gurley) and had trouble putting Detroit away on Monday night. All right, then.

OVERTIME IMPLICATIONS: There were three overtime games in Week 5, as the Browns-Ravens, Bengals-Seahawks and Falcons-Redskins went into an extra session. So, that begs the question, how do teams fare after playing in overtime?

The logical guess would be that those teams would struggle; not only are they tired, but they also either suffered a draining loss or celebrated an emotional victory. However, since 1989, which is as far back as my database goes, teams coming off overtime games without a bye week are 323-336 against the spread, meaning it’s about a 50-50 proposition.

However, overtime is different for so many teams. Do home teams react differently? What about favorites/underdogs? And how about teams that have to travel, or those playing on short rest? Let’s explore all of these scenarios.

First, the basics:

Overtime Scenario	ATS Record Since 1989
Overtime Win at Home	81-90
Overtime Win on the Road	87-65
Overtime Loss at Home	82-71
Overtime Loss on the Road	68-99

It’s interesting that what transpires to road teams is so much more impactful. It makes sense, though. Teams that have to fly home happy are more likely to play well the following week than those that have to be miserable on the returning flight. Betting on the victors and fading the losers turns out to be a 186-133 record (58.3%), which is pretty damn good, especially if you’re betting it blindly.

We’re not blind, however, so perhaps we can delve into these records and construct more-lucrative situations. I’m going to move forward with looking at road teams that played in overtime. I glanced at some scenarios for home squads, but the best thing I could find is that home teams coming off victories as home favorites are just 11-21 ATS since 1989, but that’s a small sample size, and it doesn’t apply to anyone playing in Week 6.

So, with that in mind, here are some scenarios for teams that played road overtime games:

Overtime Scenario – All for Road Teams	ATS Record Since 1989
Playing as Home Favorite after Win as Favorite	15-15
Playing as Home Dog after Win as Favorite	2-3
Playing as Home Favorite after Win as Dog	23-17
Playing as Home Dog after Win as Dog	11-7*
Playing as Road Favorite after Win as Favorite	5-5
Playing as Road Dog after Win as Favorite	9-6
Playing as Road Favorite after Win as Dog	3-3
Playing after Win as Favorite	31-29
Playing after Win as Dog	52-36*
Playing as Road Dog after Win as Dog	14-9
Playing as Home Favorite after Loss as Favorite	11-17
Playing as Home Dog after Loss as Favorite	5-1
Playing as Home Favorite after Loss as Dog	16-29^
Playing as Home Dog after Loss as Dog	10-23
Playing as Road Favorite after Loss as Favorite	3-6
Playing as Road Dog after Loss as Favorite	3-5
Playing as Road Favorite after Loss as Dog	3-4
Playing as Road Dog after Loss as Dog	13-12&
Playing after Loss as Favorite	22-30
Playing after Loss as Dog Unless Road Underdog Again	31-56^

* – Applies to Browns vs. Broncos this week.
^ – Applies to Seahawks vs. Panthers this week.
& – Applies to Redskins at Jets this week

All of this makes a ton of sense to me. Teams are successful after winning as underdogs in overtime (52-36 ATS, 59.1%) because they were able to accomplish something unexpected and great, allowing them to gain momentum the following week. Meanwhile, teams that lost as underdogs in overtime (31-56 ATS, 35.6%) are horrible because they exerted so much energy, yet came up short. They have trouble getting up for their next game as a consequence. The exception is road underdogs following a defeat as a road dog, but that’s because teams in their second-consecutive visiting tilt have always had a high covering rate over the years.

One more item: Teams that play on a Thursday night following a Sunday overtime game are an abysmal 4-20 ATS. No team has covered as a road favorite after playing in overtime (0-6). Sorry, Atlanta.

This research is telling us to play the Browns, and fade both the Seahawks and Falcons this week. The Redskins, meanwhile, happen to be a 50-50 proposition at the Jets.

ATLANTA OFFENSE: The Falcons’ usually high-octane scoring attack was flat against the Redskins. You could say they were looking ahead, but the injuries to Julio Jones and Leonard Hankerson definitely had something to do with it. Hankerson was knocked out for a chunk of the game with a rib injury, while Jones was hampered with a bum hamstring throughout. Jones said he felt it tighten during practice, and he was never the same.

Now, it’s unknown if Jones will even play on a short week. There’s serious doubt about that, but even if Jones is on the field, he definitely won’t be 100 percent, meaning Atlanta’s offense will be limited again. And yes, even against the Saints’ woeful defense. The Redskins, after all, had plenty of success limiting the Falcons.

With that in mind, Atlanta will have to establish Devonta Freeman early and often. Jones being hurt could allow the Saints to play closer to the line of scrimmage, but I don’t think it’ll matter. They’ve surrendered 100-plus rush yards to four of their five opponents thus far. Freeman consequently should stay hot.

NEW ORLEANS OFFENSE: Drew Brees piled up tons of junk yardage last week when the game was well out of hand. He struggled beforehand, but he’ll be back at home, where he’s been much better throughout his career. He’ll need every edge he can get, as Atlanta’s defense has been much better this season. The Redskins appeared to be close on Sunday, but they accumulated just 270 net yards of offense despite going to overtime.

I’d say Brees has better personnel than Kirk Cousins, but I’m not sure how accurate that is. Willie Snead runs good routes, but it’s ridiculous that he’s a No. 1 receiver. Brandin Cooks has been a disappointment. Marques Colston barely can walk. No tight end is playing well. C.J. Spiller is not being utilized very much. It’s ridiculous.

The Saints have been able to run well with Mark Ingram against some of their foes, but I don’t think they’ll have much success doing so in this matchup. The Falcons, who were decent versus the run heading into Week 5, limited Matt Jones and Alfred Morris to a combined 35 rushing yards on 19 carries.

RECAP: This is a tough one, and I was hoping to get a better number. The home underdog has dominated in this series, as the road favorite has never covered in the Matt Ryan-Drew Brees era (4-0 ATS). Remember that one Thursday night two years ago when the Falcons nearly won despite being 8.5-point dogs at home? That’s the type of series this has been.

Unfortunately Atlanta -3.5 is priced correctly, and I’ll need +4 or better to place any sort of wager. Check back later in the week, as I may like the Saints at +4. With Julio Jones hobbled, the Falcons are not the same team, and I think they might be flat following Sunday’s overtime victory. This is the Saints’ Super Bowl, so they’ll be more up for this game. Unfortunately, at +3.5, there’s not much room for error.

I’ll be posting NFL Picks on Wednesday. Follow me at @walterfootball for updates.

FINAL THOUGHTS: I said I needed +4 or better to bet on the Saints. Well, it’s available on Bovada right now, with +3 elsewhere. I’m going to bet New Orleans for just a small wager, half a unit, as I’m only slightly confident in them. Oh, and I wouldn’t count this as a unit change, since I said I wanted +4 to place any money on this contest in the first place.

I think the Saints should keep this close, and +4 provides a nice cushion. Pinnacle is hinting that this is the right side, as they’re welcoming money on Atlanta with a -3 -101 line.

The Psychology. Edge: Saints.

The Falcons could be emotionally drained from an overtime victory.

The Vegas. Edge: Saints.

Who in their right mind would bet New Orleans right now?

Percentage of money on Atlanta: 79% (90,000 bets)

The Trends. Edge: Saints.

History: Saints have won 11 of the last 16 meetings (Home Team has won 5 of the last 7).

Matt Ryan is 14-9 ATS as a road favorite.

Saints are 14-4 ATS in night home games in the Drew Brees era.

Drew Brees is 37-28 ATS as an underdog.

Drew Brees is 31-21 ATS after a loss with the Saints (9-4 ATS as an underdog).

Drew Brees is 5-1 ATS as a home underdog with the Saints.

Opening Line: Falcons -3.

Opening Total: 51.

Weather: Dome.

Week 6 NFL Pick: Falcons 24, Saints 23
Saints +4 (0.5 Units) — Correct; +$50
Under 52.5 (0 Units) — Correct; $0
Saints 31, Falcons 21

Denver Broncos (5-0) at Cleveland Browns (2-3)
Line: Broncos by 3. Total: 43.
Las Vegas Hilton Advance Point Spread : Broncos -5.5.
Walt’s Calculated Line: Broncos -3.
Sunday, Oct 18, 1:00 ET
Comment on this game

The Game. Edge: Broncos.

VEGAS UPDATE: The six top-bet teams each week were 11-13 against the spread heading into Week 5. How’d they do this past weekend? Take a look:

Patriots -8.5 – Cover

Broncos -4.5 – Cover

Giants -7 – Loss

Falcons -7 – Loss

Bills -1 – Push

Cardinals -2.5 – Cover

The books were killed once again. Going 2-3-1 may not seem so bad, considering the juice, but there was a TON of action on New England, plus all of the major teasers hit. Some of the smaller books were going to have to take out loans (seriously) if the Giants had covered Sunday night.

Here are the six top bets in Week 6, as of Wednesday afternoon (13-16-1 ATS this year):

Patriots -7

Falcons -3.5

Bengals -3

Cardinals -3

Giants +4

Vikings -4

It needs to be noted that once again, nothing is even close to the Patriots. About 90 percent of the money is on New England as of this writing, and this game is getting the greatest amount of bets. Vegas is risking a ton of money yet again here. Even if the Patriots win but don’t cover, so many teasers will cash.

Once again, follow @walterfootball for updates.

DENVER OFFENSE: Peyton Manning continues to struggle. The Raiders came into their Week 5 contest ranked in the mid-20s in terms of stopping the pass, yet Manning couldn’t take advantage of it. He was picked twice because of his noodle arm, and he failed to lead his offense into the end zone.

I’d say Manning has a strong matchup against a secondary that will be missing Joe Haden, but I don’t think it’ll matter. Manning is decrepit, and he’s only a smarter Alex Smith at this point. His protection isn’t there either, as his offensive line has struggled immensely. Cleveland’s pass rush is just mediocre, but it’ll have success putting heavy heat on Manning.

It’d be nice for Manning if he could depend on his ground attack to help him move the chains, but his running backs have been huge disappointments this season. The blocking hasn’t been there, and Ronnie Hillman, who has been slightly better than C.J. Anderson, is not healthy at the moment. The Browns have a weak ground defense, but I don’t think Denver will be able to take advantage of it.

CLEVELAND OFFENSE: Josh McCown just torched the Ravens for a whopping 457 yards in a terrific overtime victory. It was his second-consecutive strong performance; he was also solid at San Diego. Unfortunately, I don’t think he’ll thrive for the third week in a row.

The Broncos are atop the league rankings in several defensive categories. One happens to be sacks. Even though DeMarcus Ware is out, Denver has plenty of dynamic defenders who can get to the quarterback. It’ll put heavy heat on McCown, as Cleveland’s offensive line has surrendered plenty of sacks this season. I don’t expect the Broncos to respect McCown’s weapons, so they’ll leave many of his mediocre receivers in single coverage.

One supporting cast member who isn’t mediocre is Duke Johnson, and his usage has been a big reason for Cleveland having more success on offense lately. This gives the Browns a chance, as Denver’s one defensive liability thus far has been defending receiving running backs. Johnson will have to put together a huge game to give Cleveland a shot, and he can definitely do that.

RECAP: Manning has sucked so far, yet his team is 4-1 against the spread. Thanks to their prolific defense, they just find a way to cover. I think they’ll do so again this week.

There are few things favoring Denver. One is that the Browns are coming off an emotional, overtime victory versus a divisional rival. Bad teams tend to struggle following victories, so the Browns could be a bit flat and overconfident. Second, this spread was -5.5 a week ago, and now it’s -4. That’s a decent amount of line value. And third, Denver is heading into a bye, so it’ll be focused on this matchup. Gary Kubiak was 5-1 ATS in Houston prior to having a week off, so that’s a good sign.

This spread is a tad too high for my liking. I would’ve preferred -3, which was what my calculated number was, so that will limit my unit count. I think I’m good to place a unit on the Broncos. I may add a second unit if this spread drops to -3.

FINAL THOUGHTS: With this spread dropping to -3.5, this game now fits the advance line movement system I posted above. I thought about putting another unit on Denver, but I want to stick with my vow that I won’t change unit counts unless there are injuries. It’s worth noting that Denver is at its cheapest on Pinnacle (-3.5 +100) so maybe I have the wrong side.

SUNDAY NOTES: This spread has dropped to -3 with juice (-115 or -120, depending where you look), which I would totally take over -3.5 at even money.

The Psychology. Edge: None.
No edge found.

The Vegas. Edge: Browns.

No surprise here.

Percentage of money on Denver: 81% (40,000 bets)

The Trends. Edge: Broncos.

Peyton Manning is 46-28 ATS as a road favorite since 2001.

Gary Kubiak is 5-1 ATS going into a bye.

Browns are 20-13 ATS after allowing 30 or more points since 2005.

Opening Line: Broncos -5.

Opening Total: 42.5.

Weather: .

Week 6 NFL Pick: Broncos 27, Browns 20
Broncos -3 -115 (1 Unit) — Push; $0
Over 43 (0 Units) — Correct; $0
Broncos 26, Browns 23

Cincinnati Bengals (5-0) at Buffalo Bills (3-2)
Line: Bengals by 3. Total: 42.5.
Las Vegas Hilton Advance Point Spread : Bills -1.5.
Walt’s Calculated Line: Bengals -3.
Sunday, Oct 18, 1:00 ET
Comment on this game

The Game. Edge: Bengals.

HATE MAIL: Lots of hate mail this week, as expected. Here’s the first batch:

I like how this recommendation is to kill myself “around” Week 9. Like, I could take my life in Week 8 or 10, or maybe 11, and it would be OK.

More hate mail:

I can imagine SoiledBriefs watching the Chiefs lose, laughing hysterically, pulling off his underpants and then licking the poop stains on them. What a great way to spend a Sunday afternoon!

The final batch from the comment board:

And we’ve reached the point where I receive hate mail for picks I didn’t even make!

Last one: I got this as a message on Facebook. This guy used to be my “friend,” but has since blocked me, so I couldn’t respond to him:

“Basically a fraud?” A “FRAUD!?” How dare Jorge say such things? I’m definitely not a fraud. I’ve sucked at picking games since 2011, but there’s nothing fraudulent about it. I make all of my loser selections known. If I were a fraud, I’d proclaim that I’ve done well. I haven’t done that since the new CBA was signed. I haven’t been able to figure out the NFL in this new era, but I am trying hard to do so. A fraud would tell you he’s got it all together, but my picks are all out there.

So, with that in mind, Jorge, if you’re reading this, I demand that you unblock me and issue an apology.

BUFFALO OFFENSE: Tyrod Taylor hasn’t been himself recently, and that apparently has been because of an ankle injury. This malady will likely keep him out of this contest, as E.J. Manuel will probably draw the start. That’s not good, as I’m sure the Bengals don’t exactly fear a quarterback whose career figures include a completion percentage of 58.6 and a YPA of 6.4. Manuel was easily the third-rated of the three quarterbacks vying for the starting job this summer.

Perhaps the Bengals being unfocused is one way the Bills can win this game. Another is with Manuel’s legs. Like Taylor, Manuel can pick up some first downs by scrambling. However, Cincinnati just saw Russell Wilson and limited him to just 21 rushing yards on three runs. Wilson obviously can get the ball downfield aerially, yet he didn’t burn the Bengals on the ground, so how will Manuel do it?

Manuel’s supporting cast is also iffy. There’s a chance Sammy Watkins will return, but will he be 100 percent? That’s definitely an unknown. Meanwhile, it doesn’t look good for Karlos Williams, meaning the team may have to rotate Anthony Dixon and Daniel Herron again. If so, Buffalo won’t be able to take advantage of the Bengals’ 30th-ranked run defense.

CINCINNATI OFFENSE: Seattle’s defense may not be the same as it once was, and there’s no doubt that the Legion of Boom is woeful right now, but Andy Dalton’s comeback last week was impressive nonetheless. He led a furious charge from down 24-7 to prevail in overtime. I could have used the cover, but hey, I’m not complaining!

Dalton will actually face a much tougher challenge this week. Whereas the Seahawks are just 15th against the pass in terms of YPA – and this, despite facing quarterbacks like Nick Foles, Jay Cutler and Matthew Stafford – the Bills are fourth. Their entire secondary is actually performing well, so they’ll be able to limit Dalton, especially given that they’ll be playing harder than usual (more on that later).

The Bengals also may find it difficult to establish the run. The Bills are superb at stopping that aspect of a team’s offense, limiting three of their five opponents this season to 60 rushing yards or fewer. I don’t know what’s happened to Jeremy Hill, but he’s been ineffective for the most part this season. Marvin Lewis talked about giving Hill more opportunities, but that may not work out very well this week.

RECAP: I love when good teams play without their starting quarterbacks for the first time. They tend to give 110 percent and often cover as a result. The Bills are definitely a good team, so I have to believe that they’ll be very focused. The Bengals, meanwhile, are coming off a big statement win. They’re thrilled with themselves that they beat the defending Super Bowl champions, and I expect them to be flat. Not only was it a huge victory, but it occurred in overtime, so the team has to be emotionally drained.

I really like the Bills this week. The public action on this game is absurd. The only thing making me hesitate about placing four or five units on this contest is that Buffalo flies out to London next week. Teams playing prior to London are an abysmal 6-16 ATS. However, I think this could be an exception. The Bills know that they can’t possibly look ahead because their starting signal-caller is out.

FINAL THOUGHTS: We’ll see what happens if Tyrod Taylor gets the nod. If he does, I’ll cancel this bet. That may seem strange, but two things: First, the Bills would lose their psychological edge if Taylor is given the start. Second, Taylor may not be 100 percent, so I wouldn’t want to back a team with an injured quarterback. Check back Sunday morning for an update or follow me @walterfootball.

SUNDAY NOTES: Tyrod Taylor is out, but everyone else is in. I still like the Bills a lot. This is a big statement game for them, and I find it interesting that everyone’s asking how they’ll score. Cincinnati may not score much against that defense.

The Psychology. Edge: None.
A bad spot for both teams. The Bengals are off an emotional victory, while the Bills have to fly to London next week.

The Vegas. Edge: Bills.

All aboard the Bengals’ bandwagon!

Percentage of money on Cincinnati: 79% (44,000 bets)

The Trends. Edge: Bills.

Bengals are 23-38 ATS as a favorite since 2007.

Favorites after playing the Seahawks are 8-25 ATS.

True home teams are 21-13 ATS in the last 34 Bills games.

Bills are 16-27 ATS in their last 43 home games vs. a team with a winning record.

Opening Line: Pick.

Opening Total: 45.

Weather: .

Week 6 NFL Pick: Bills 20, Bengals 17
Bills +3 (3 Units) — Incorrect; -$330
Under 42.5 (0 Units) — Incorrect; $0
Bengals 34, Bills 21

Kansas City Chiefs (1-4) at Minnesota Vikings (2-2)
Line: Vikings by 4. Total: 43.
Las Vegas Hilton Advance Point Spread : Vikings -2.5.
Walt’s Calculated Line: Vikings -10.
Sunday, Oct 18, 1:00 ET
Comment on this game

The Game. Edge: Vikings.

If you haven’t seen this yet, we have a new NFL Pick Em Contest on this Web site. It’s free entry, and there are monthly and seasonal prizes: $350 for the year, and $100 for each month. There’s no reason not to enter. Click the link to register!

KANSAS CITY OFFENSE: The Chiefs’ season ended in the third quarter of last week’s contest. The team was up 17-3 with possession in the red zone, but Jamaal Charles went down with a non-contact injury. Charles tore his ACL and is now done for the year.

Charles was Kansas City’s entire scoring attack. The team didn’t score a single point against Chicago’s anemic defense after Charles left, which is just a preview of things to come. Alex Smith is very limited and happens to be stationed behind a pedestrian offensive line, so he needs all of the weapons he can get. With Charles out of the picture, the opposition can focus more on Jeremy Maclin and Travis Kelce. Smith will be even more conservative as a result, if that’s even possible.

The Vikings happen to be weak against the run – they’ve surrendered at least 90 rushing yards to three of their four opponents – but I don’t think the Chiefs will be able to take advantage of that. Charcandrick West and Knile Davis aren’t the most talented backs, and their blocking just won’t be there.

MINNESOTA OFFENSE: Adrian Peterson, on the other hand, is expected to have a monstrous performance. The Chiefs have allowed 72 yards or more to four of their five opponents, including 90 or more to three of their five foes. They aren’t terrible versus the rush, but Peterson can take advantage of an average matchup and have a dominant outing.

Peterson will continue to open things up for Teddy Bridgewater, who won’t face much resistance. The Chiefs have been horrific against the pass all year. They’ve given up 250-plus passing yards to every quarterback they’ve battled thus far. Their cornerbacks have been major disappointments, even Sean Smith, who was supposed to provide a big boost upon his return from his suspension. Bridgewater has played well at home this season, and I think he’ll continue to thrive against this latest opponent.

RECAP: This is the shadiest spread of the week. How is this line only four? My calculated spread for this game is Vikings -10. TEN! Yet, it’s only four? How is this possible?

One of two things is happening here. Either this is a Vegas trap and there will be some serious point-shaving going on, or the books set yet another terrible spread. The oddsmakers have been setting lines this year as if they’d rolled $20s with Johnny Manziel beforehand. Many of their numbers haven’t made any sense, including this one.

Being cautious, I’m going to take the Vikings for two units. They’ve covered every game this year except for that weird opener, and I like that they’ve had two weeks to prepare for this game. Good teams benefit from a bye week, and Minnesota is definitely a good team. I’m actually going to lock in these two units. This spread has already risen from -3.5 to -4, and I have a feeling that it might go up even more.

FINAL THOUGHTS: I feel both stupid and confused. The line has gone down back to -3.5, which makes no sense to me. Pinnacle is also asking for more money with a spread of -3.5 +100. The Vikings are not just half-a-point better than the Chiefs. Not even close.

SUNDAY NOTES: I screwed up royally with this one, as some -3 -120s are out there. Ugh. I don’t get this line movement at all. The Vikings are not even with the Chiefs.

The Psychology. Edge: None.
No edge found.

The Vegas. Edge: Chiefs.

There’s not much excitement for Kansas City right now.

Percentage of money on Minnesota: 73% (27,000 bets)

The Trends. Edge: Chiefs.

Chiefs are 29-16 ATS in October since 2002.

Opening Line: Vikings -3.5.

Opening Total: 44.5.

Weather: .

Week 6 NFL Pick: Vikings 23, Chiefs 13
Vikings -4 (2 Units) — Correct; +$200
Under 43 (0 Units) — Correct; $0
Vikings 16, Chiefs 10

Houston Texans (1-4) at Jacksonville Jaguars (1-4)
Line: Jaguars by 2.5. Total: 43.5.
Las Vegas Hilton Advance Point Spread : Texans -2.
Walt’s Calculated Line: Texans -1.
Sunday, Oct 18, 1:00 ET
Comment on this game

The Game. Edge: Texans.

I wouldn’t say my weekly random NFL notes cluttered these picks pages, so I’ll keep them here. What I’m also going to do is store all of them in a Random NFL Notes section so that you can go back and read previous entries in the future.

Some random NFL notes I can’t put anywhere else:

1. I recently saw the best thing ever:

Wow. And the personality fits, too. Dan Campbell is talking about going back to being primates and running the Oklahoma drill. He’s even checking Ryan Tannehill’s privilege by making him apologize to the practice squad players. He’s so much tougher than Joe Philbin. Who does Philbin resemble, by the way?

I imagine Philbin said stuff like, “Ye… yes, PC Assistant Coach, mmmkay?” during coaches meetings.

2. There was some sort of scandal this week about Draft Kings, FanDuel and insider trading. FanDuel has been a sponsor of this Web site for quite some time now, so I thought I should address this.

FanDuel will continue to sponsor the site as long as they want to. That’s because I’m a fan of insider trading. I don’t see what’s wrong with it. If you have inside information, you should be able to take advantage of it and make as much money as possible. That’s the foundation of America, and if you don’t like it, you can get the fudge out and join some third-world country where people trade goat poop for stale bread. God Bless ‘Merica.

3. I guess this is a good of a time as any to promote the WalterFootball.com Podcast, which is sponsored by FanDuel. This just started about a month ago, and we already have 24 episodes. We have a weekly picks podcast with insight from my Supercontest partner Matvei, who went 12-3-1 ATS in Week 1 and 8-6 ATS in Week 4, so please check that out if you have the time.

HOUSTON OFFENSE: I’m not sure why Ryan Mallett even started last week. Bill O’Brien clearly wanted to go with Brian Hoyer; he could have easily taken Hoyer out of the game once Mallett was cleared to return following his rib injury. He kept Hoyer in the game, and rightfully so. Hoyer is the better quarterback. He’s not as physically gifted, but he at least makes smarter decisions and can read defenses. He also doesn’t whine and cry on the sidelines like some kid who was told he was too short to ride a roller coaster at a theme park.

Hoyer won’t have much difficulty in this game, as there are plenty of holes in Jacksonville’s secondary. He’ll be able to get the ball to DeAndre Hopkins consistently. The pass rush will have to compensate for this, and it’s a good one. However, the Texans have surrendered just three sacks in their previous three games, so they might be able to limit the Jacksonville rushers.

The Jaguars, of course, will have to worry about Arian Foster. The injury-prone back struggled last week, but I expect him to rebound in this contest. He’s had plenty of time to recover, and we just saw what Doug Martin did to this defense. There’s no reason to think Foster could exceed those numbers.

JACKSONVILLE OFFENSE: The Houston defense has been a major disappointment this season. Their pass rush has been non-existent for the most part. They’ve accumulated just six sacks in five games thus far, which is just embarrassing considering that they have J.J. Watt and Jadeveon Clowney on the roster. The opposition has double- or even triple-teamed Watt on almost every play, while Clowney has been a disappointment. No one else has done anything either.

Having said that, the Texans could add to their sack total in this contest. That’s because Jacksonville’s offensive line is a disastrous. The Buccaneers, who have a mediocre pass rush, were able to sack Blake Bortles a whopping six times this past week, forcing two turnovers as a consequence. I have to believe that the Texans will rattle Bortles as well, which could prompt the second-year signal-caller to commit a turnover or two.

I would still expect Bortles to move the chains, however. He has some talent at his disposal, with Allen Robinson and Allen Hurns emerging as potent options. Meanwhile, T.J. Yeldon should have success, given that Frank Gore just trampled Houston’s defense.

RECAP: Bill Simmons and Cousin Sal marveled about how this spread didn’t make any sense, but I think it’s right on the money. The Texans are about two points better than the horrible Jaguars, and because Jacksonville has a homefield advantage worth just one point (if that), it would make sense that Houston is either pick or -1.

The Jaguars’ crappy homefield is the least of their concerns. They also have to fly to London next week, and as mentioned, teams playing prior to London are just 6-16 ATS. I don’t expect Jacksonville to be very focused. Then again, I’m not dying to bet the horrible Texans without getting points either.

FINAL THOUGHTS: The Jaguars are favored? Umm… OK? Given how bad the Jaguars are at home, a -2 line says Jacksonville is one point better than Houston, which is just stupid. Unfortunately, the Texans are also very bad, so I don’t want to bet on them either.

SUNDAY NOTES: The under might be the play here, as winds will be gusting at 25 mph. This is not a guarantee, as it could force some turnovers, but heavy winds usually mean low scores.

The Psychology. Edge: None.
No edge found.

The Vegas. Edge: Jaguars.
A slight lean on the visitor.

Percentage of money on Houston: 64% (18,000 bets)

The Trends. Edge: Texans.

History: Texans have won 7 of the last 9 meetings.

Texans are 40-24 ATS after two or more consecutive losses (8-6 ATS as favorites).

Jaguars are 6-13 ATS as home favorites since 2008. ???

Opening Line: Texans -1.

Opening Total: 43.

Weather: Heavy Winds, 25 mph.

Week 6 NFL Pick: Texans 17, Jaguars 14
Texans +2.5 (0 Units) — Correct; $0
Under 43.5 (0 Units) — Correct; $0
Texans 31, Jaguars 20

Chicago Bears (2-3) at Detroit Lions (0-5)
Line: Lions by 3.5. Total: 45.5.
Las Vegas Hilton Advance Point Spread : Lions -6.5.
Walt’s Calculated Line: Lions -4.
Sunday, Oct 18, 1:00 ET
Comment on this game

The Game. Edge: None.

As with the random NFL notes, I’m going to have all of my Random College Football Notes on one page as well. Oh, and you can find my College Football Picks here.

Random College Football Notes:

1. The big news this week is that the two USCs in college football have bid farewell to their head coaches. Let’s begin with Steve Spurrier, who made a surprising announcement Monday afternoon. When it was first announced that the 70-year-old Spurrier was walking away, I was scared that it was for health reasons. That turned out not to be the case, as Spurrier apparently just didn’t like the direction the team was headed.

And we now have proof that Spurrier is both an a**hole and a hypocrite. He’s the former because he abandoned all of the kids he recruited in the previous offseason. What are they supposed to do now? They wanted to play for the legendary “Ball Coach,” and now they have to take the field for some dingus for the rest of the year. That’s real fair. Nice job, Steve.

Spurrier is a hypocrite because all college football coaches preach work ethic and the importance of finishing what you start. Yet, Spurrier isn’t doing that. Do you think he would’ve chastised a player who just quit on his team mid-season? Of course he would have. So, someone needs to chastise Spurrier, and it sure as well won’t be the major media members he’s buddy-buddy with. I’ll volunteer.

Spurrier has shown that he has absolutely no character by doing this. You don’t just walk away from your team in the middle of the season. I don’t care if they’re 0-6. Unless it’s for health reasons, you ride it out with them and then step down at the end of the year. Abandoning people you happen to be close with is a scum-bag move, and it’s actually the first thing I’ll remember about Spurrier in two or three decades. I don’t care about his success at Duke and Florida. He’s a piece of s*** for just walking away from his players like this.

2. We had Spurrer the Quitter, and we also had Sarkisian the Drunk. If you’ve been living under a rock, Steve Sarkisian was fired from USC – the West Coast one – because he allegedly was drunk during games and team functions. I’m not one of these idiots who is going to preach about alcoholism being a disease. A close family member of mine is a chronic alcoholic, and I’ve lost all respect for him. It’s not a disease. It’s a sign of weakness. Sarkisian needs help for sure, but I’m not going to cry and whine about it, and I’m not going to congratulate him either when he stops drinking. There are far more difficult things to overcome, such as actual diseases like cancer.

I am going to focus on Pat Haden, however, who is somehow absolved of blame. The inept athletic director brought in Sarkisian, yet did nothing about it until Sarkisian began losing to crappy teams. Would he have fired Sarkisian if USC had kept winning? Most definitely not! Keep in mind that Sarkisian’s alcoholism was well known and frequently joked about. During a press conference, when Sarkisian was asked if he has an alcohol problem, he laughed about it and said, “I don’t know, we’ll see.” The hell? “We’ll see?” How was he not fired on the spot after saying that?

Haden is trash, and he needs to be fired immediately. The only thing he can possibly do to save his job right now is to bring in one specific coach…

3. I normally don’t really care who coaches at overrated big-name schools like USC and Texas. Fans of those programs have unrealistic expectations. Take the Longhorns, for example. Yes, they’ve sucked under Charlie Strong, but what did they expect? Mack Brown left the cupboard bare, so Strong didn’t have much to work with. What was he supposed to do in just two seasons? The players he first recruited aren’t even upperclassmen right now. I think any coach deserves at least four years.

However, things could change this offseason, and I find it fascinating that both USC and Texas will be searching for new coaches because both will be gunning for Chip Kelly. The current Eagles coach has been underwhelming with his new team, predictably failing in an environment in which he doesn’t have unfair recruiting advantages. Kelly has to be very frustrated right now, so I imagine he’ll listen to all offers after the 2015 season. I highly doubt he’ll be fired, but like Bobby Petrino, he’ll probably take the money and run to either USC and Texas. Both schools have billion-dollar alumni who will throw countless cash at him.

There may actually be a bidding war for Kelly’s services, and rightfully so. While he’s a lousy NFL coach, he’s terrific in college, so I expect him to receive offers close to, or even greater than $10 million per season. I’ll actually be pretty surprised if he’s with the Eagles next year.

DETROIT OFFENSE: Matthew Stafford deserved to get benched against the Cardinals. He was horrible. No longer careful like he was Monday night against the Seahawks, he repeatedly forced passes downfield that had no chance of being completed. He was intercepted thrice as a result. He now has nine turnovers compared to six touchdowns on the season to go along with a lowly 6.2 YPA – his worst figure in the past five years.

It’s hard to completely blame Stafford, though. His offensive line is garbage, while the running game doesn’t exist. Fortunately for Stafford, he does have some hope in this matchup. The Bears have major issues covering, as everyone in their secondary, aside from Adrian Amos, is a major liability when defending the pass. This is far different from the Arizona contest, so Stafford might have some success targeting Calvin Johnson and Golden Tate this time.

Meanwhile, I don’t expect Ameer Abdullah and Joique Bell to eclipse the century mark, or anything, but I do think they might have success running the ball in this game. The Bears have given up 96-plus rushing yards to four of their five opponents, so neither Abdullah nor Bell will be completely ineffective.

CHICAGO OFFENSE: The Bears are struggling offensively for many of the same reasons the Lions are. Like Detroit, they have a lackadaisical, uncoachable, turnover-prone quarterback with poor fundamentals, and they also own an offensive line that isn’t giving that overrated signal-caller much of a chance. The Bears don’t block well at all, so Jay Cutler often has to dink and dunk, which might actually be good for him because it prevents him from throwing stupid #yolo passes that often get picked off.

This game might be different, however. For the first time in a while, the Bears are playing in a game that they’re expected to win – in terms of public perception – and coming off a pair of victories, it feels like Cutler may have some confidence and take more chances downfield, especially if Alshon Jeffery returns. This will be bad news for the Bears – or rather, good news, if we’re talking in terms of their draft positioning.

Fortunately – or really, unfortunately – the Bears will be able to move the chains consistently with Matt Forte. The Lions have an abysmal ground defense that couldn’t do anything about Chris Johnson last week. Forte is obviously a better player at this stage of their careers, so he definitely could have a better performance.

RECAP: This is another spread that Bill Simmons and Cousin Sal complained about. They thought the Bears should be favored, which was just insane. These teams are about even, with Detroit perhaps being a point better. The Lions -4 would have been more appropriate; not something like Bears -2, which doesn’t make any sense.

Chicago has some good vibes right now, which is never good when Cutler is involved. Cutler, gaining confidence, is due for a five-turnover performance, and I like to bet against bad teams coming off a win. The Lions, meanwhile, were humiliated by one of the top teams in football. There’s no shame in that. Prior to that defeat, however, they nearly beat the Seahawks and hung tough with the Broncos.

I like Detroit to win and cover, but I’m not exactly excited to bet on an 0-5 team laying a field goal, and I’m still unsure of the Lions’ psyche following that whole batted ball saga, which seemed to distract them last week.

FINAL THOUGHTS: I considered putting a unit on the Lions, but with this line at -3.5, some of that value is gone. Detroit’s still the right side in my opinion, especially considering that Chicago is missing two of its top defensive players.

SUNDAY NOTES: The headline is that all of Chicago’s offensive players are back, but the team is missing some key defensive talents. The Lions, playing for pride, should be able to win and cover.

The Psychology. Edge: Lions.

The Bears just had an emotional, comeback victory, while the Lions were embarrassed.

The Vegas. Edge: None.
Equal action.

Percentage of money on Detroit: 57% (21,000 bets)

The Trends. Edge: Lions.

History: Bears have won 14 of the last 21 meetings (Lions won last 4).

Jay Cutler is 38-67 ATS if you exclude Monday Night Football.

Lions are 13-3 ATS after losing by 20+ points since 2007.

Lions are 14-29 ATS against losing teams the previous 43 instances.

Opening Line: Lions -3.

Opening Total: 44.

Weather: .

Week 6 NFL Pick: Lions 20, Bears 13
Lions -3.5 (0 Units) — Incorrect; $0
Under 45.5 (0 Units) — Incorrect; $0
Lions 37, Bears 34

Washington Redskins (2-3) at New York Jets (3-1)
Line: Jets by 8. Total: 40.
Las Vegas Hilton Advance Point Spread : Jets -6.
Walt’s Calculated Line: Jets -4.
Sunday, Oct 18, 1:00 ET
Comment on this game

The Game. Edge: Jets.

If you’ve followed this site for a while, you might remember that I like to respond to my spam mails. Five years ago, a man named Jon Wire from the “United Bank of Africoan” promised me an ATM card of some sort, so I responded as a man named Mister Compassion Chuck Norris, who was raised by wolves. The following season, I received e-mails from Richard Held and Loon Bruce, who told me I won a Facebook Award, which comes with a “lump sum pay out of (750,000.00 GBP).” Pretending to be Matthew Millen Kim, I sent out my application and fake money.

I messed around with a spammer pretending to be a black woman named Mulyana in 2012. I assumed Steve Urkel’s identity and had many exchanges with Mulyana. Click the link to see all of that. As for the 2013 season, I pretended to be Riley Cooper and Aaron Hernandez in some responses. In 2014, Donald Sterling answered spammers.

This week, I have a new Spam Mail in which some person told me he was robbed on vacations in Manila. How could I possibly help!? Check out the link.

NEW YORK OFFENSE: My developer Dennis took a glance at my NFL Power Rankings Tuesday morning and had a question for me: “Where are the Jets; why are they MIA in your top 10?” My answer was comprised of two words: “Ryan Fitzpatrick.” It’s hard to trust any team “led” by Fitzpatrick. He tried his hardest to give away the London game, but the Dolphins were just so much more incompetent.

Having said that, Fitzpatrick could have a decent showing in this contest. The Redskins have surprisingly gotten decent play out of their corners, but their safeties have been abysmal this season. Brandon Marshall and Eric Decker should play well as a consequence, while Fitzpatrick figures to have all the time he needs to find them. The Jets have actually surrendered the fewest sacks (2) in the NFL this season.

The Redskins are at least tough against the run, so they should be able to limit Chris Ivory a bit. They’ve surrendered more than 84 yards on the ground just once this year, though that occurred last week against Devonta Freeman.

WASHINGTON OFFENSE: Limiting the Jets’ scoring attack won’t be as much of a challenge as scoring for the Redskins. It’ll be very difficult for them to move the chains, especially when considering that Jordan Reed is expected to miss another game.

Kirk Cousins’ options are limited. Missing Reed is huge, as he’ll have to deal with Darrelle Revis erasing one of his receivers, likely Pierre Garcon if DeSean Jackson is out for yet another game. Cousins consequently will have to rely on the likes of Jamison Crowder and Ryan Grant to advance the sticks, which could be problematic. Crowder has shown some nice flashes, so there’s some hope, but he’s just an unproven rookie right now.

The Redskins would love to establish the run, but I don’t see that happening. First of all, the Jets have the top-ranked rush defense in the NFL, as they give up just 3.43 YPC. Second, Alfred Morris and Matt Jones have both struggled for the most part since the team lost guard Shawn Lauvao for the season. Lauvao wasn’t the best pass-protector, but he was the team’s best run-blocker. Morris and Jones frequently ran behind him, but they haven’t been able to do that since the first half of the Giants game.

RECAP: I like the Redskins enough to place four units on them. Here’s why:

1. The Jets have been hearing about how great they are for two weeks now. They clobbered the Dolphins in London, and they’ve been feeling pretty good about themselves for a while now. This is not a good sign. Since the new CBA was signed in 2011, teams coming off a bye following a divisional victory are 6-11 against the spread. It’s a small sample size, but I think it makes sense, especially in this new post-CBA world in which teams can’t practice as much during their week off.

2. New York is likely to take the Redskins for granted because of another reason as well – the team plays the Patriots next week. How can the Jets possibly focus on this contest with undefeated New England coming up? Since 1989, which is as far back as my database goes, the Jets are 10-16 ATS prior to battling New England – 3-8 ATS if favored by six or more.

3. The Redskins are playing their second-consecutive road game off a loss, which has been a very high covering rate over the years.

4. This spread is too high for two reasons. First of all, the Jets don’t score consistently well enough to cover relatively high numbers like this. Second, the Redskins have been underrated this whole time. Their only bad loss this season was against the Giants on a short work week. They’ve handled themselves well otherwise, including in a near-victory at Atlanta. They could easily pull through this time.

FINAL THOUGHTS: I’ve vowed not to make any unit changes unless there are injuries. Well, there are plenty of injuries for Washington. The Redskins are missing Trent Williams and Kory Lichstensteiger on top of Shawn Lauvao, meaning the entire left side of their offensive line is out. DeSean Jackson and some members of the secondary will also miss this game. Meanwhile, the books have shot this spread up to -7, which indicates that they are concerned about a middle at all. With all of that in mind, I’m dropping this down to one unit. I’d love the Redskins under normal circumstances, but I can’t strongly back a team missing 60 percent of its blocking.

SUNDAY NOTES: WOW! This spread has shot up past -7 all the way to -8. Vegas is showing absolutely no concern for a seven-point victory, which would normally mean a middle. It appears as though New York is the right side, so I’m glad I dropped this to a unit.

The Psychology. Edge: Redskins.

The Jets take on the Patriots next week after this non-conference foe.

The Vegas. Edge: None.
Equal action.

Percentage of money on New York: 56% (27,000 bets)

The Trends. Edge: None.

Opening Line: Jets -5.5.

Opening Total: 41.5.

Weather: .

Week 6 NFL Pick: Jets 17, Redskins 16
Redskins +8 (1 Unit) — Incorrect; -$110
Under 40 (0 Units) — Incorrect; $0
Jets 34, Redskins 20

Arizona Cardinals (4-1) at Pittsburgh Steelers (3-2)
Line: Cardinals by 3. Total: 45.
Las Vegas Hilton Advance Point Spread : Cardinals -2.5.
Walt’s Calculated Line: Cardinals -4.
Sunday, Oct 18, 1:00 ET
Comment on this game

The Game. Edge: Cardinals.

Video of the Week: This video has apparently been around since 2007, but I just saw it for the first time, so perhaps you haven’t caught it yet (thanks, Brendan B):

Hilarious – though I’m struggling to figure out why that one gay guy was pissed that there were Cheez-Its in his cup.

PITTSBURGH OFFENSE: Everyone’s going to be hyping up the Steelers and their dog-killing quarterback, but most people in the media probably didn’t pay attention to what really transpired. QBDK had a horrific showing Monday night, as the Chargers dropped three of his interceptions. QBDK also took some bad sacks and was a millisecond away from losing the ball on a strip-sack. The Chargers couldn’t take advantage of this, but Arizona surely will.

The Cardinals have a very opportunistic defense with plenty of play-makers, who will be able to take advantage of QBDK’s errors. They accumulated tons of turnovers against the Lions, and they’ll pick up where they left off in Pittsburgh.

Of course, the Steelers will once again try to limit QBDK’s blunders by pounding the ball with Le’Veon Bell. They were able to move the chains on the ground versus San Diego’s league-worst ground defense. Things will be much different this Sunday; the Cardinals have limited three of their five opponents to 50 or fewer rushing yards.

ARIZONA OFFENSE: The Chargers couldn’t do much against the Steelers’ defense Monday night because they had major issues on their offensive line. Save for the opening drive, they either were whistled for holding or surrendered a sack on every possession. Two of Philip Rivers’ blockers were out heading into the contest, and then he lost his left tackle, forcing his right tackle to move to the blind side. After that, his center left with a concussion. The Cardinals don’t have such issues, as their offensive line has held up pretty well this season.

Carson Palmer has been hot this season; save for one game against the Rams in which he made some dumb mistakes, he has been very effective, which is not good news for a Pittsburgh secondary that has some major holes – especially in the wake of Will Allen’s injury. It’s unknown if Allen will play, but the Cardinals will definitely be able to take advantage of his absence with their plethora of weapons. Pittsburgh will have no answer for Larry Fitzgerald and John Brown.

Chris Johnson has been fantastic for the Cardinals, surprisingly, but he may be limited in this contest. He just ripped through Detroit’s poor defense, but he’ll have trouble finding room against a Steeler stop unit that has been pretty strong against the run for the most part in 2015.

RECAP: The Cardinals are one of my top plays this week. Here’s why:

1. The Steelers are coming off an emotional Monday night victory and could be flat for a non-conference foe. Even though the Cardinals are 4-1, I don’t think Pittsburgh will respect them very much to bounce back so quickly off short rest.

2. The Cardinals, on the other hand, will be pumped to win this game. That’s because this is a big revenge battle for Bruce Arians. Arizona’s current head coach used to be the Steelers’ offensive coordinator until he was inexplicably run out of town. Arians has been preparing for this contest ever since the schedule was released, and his players, who love him, will want to win for him.

3. I’ll fade QBDK again with pleasure. QBDK is one of the worst quarterbacks in the NFL, owning a 5-17 ATS record the past few years. He was EXTREMELY fortunate that the Chargers didn’t pick him off three times Monday night. The opportunistic Cardinals will cash in those turnovers.

4. This spread is too low. I calculated it at -4. Vegas has done a poor job setting lines for the Cardinals this year. Think about it: Dating back to Week 1, Arizona was just -3 over New Orleans, which was a joke. The Cardinals were just -2.5 for most of the week against Detroit last Sunday. Also a joke. And now, they’re only -3 versus the worst starting quarterback in the NFL? I’ll take that.

This is a four-unit selection. I nearly went five, but the public action scared me off – but just a bit, though. Vegas has been burned plenty of times by Arizona this year, and this game is unlikely to see a large volume of bets compared to Falcons-Saints, Bengals-Bills, and especially Patriots-Colts.

WEDNESDAY NIGHT UPDATE: It looks like this spread may go up. Many books still have -3 -110, but some have moved to -115 or -120, and I fear as though this will be -3.5 soon. I’d lock this in now if you want to bet on this game.

FINAL THOUGHTS: Speaking of the books not being concerned about being middled, this line has shot up to -4, and it might be even higher Sunday morning. I still love Arizona.

SUNDAY NOTES: Here’s a line movement I got right. I’m happy I locked htis in at -3 because it’s now -5 or even -5.5 in some places. The Cardinals should be able to win this easily.

The Psychology. Edge: Cardinals.

The Steelers just had an emotional win and may not be up for a non-conference foe. The Cardinals, meanwhile, would love to win this revenge game for Bruce Arians.

The Vegas. Edge: Steelers.

All the money on the Cardinals.

Percentage of money on Arizona: 82% (36,000 bets)

The Trends. Edge: Cardinals.

Bruce Arians is 26-11 ATS as head coach of the Cardinals.

QBDK is 5-17 ATS since 2012.

Opening Line: Cardinals -3.5.

Opening Total: .

Weather: .

Week 6 NFL Pick: Cardinals 24, Steelers 13
Cardinals -3 (4 Units) — Incorrect; -$440
Under 45 (0 Units) — Correct; $0
Steelers 25, Cardinals 13

Miami Dolphins (1-3) at Tennessee Titans (1-3)
Line: Titans by 2.5. Total: 43.5.
Las Vegas Hilton Advance Point Spread : Titans -1.5.
Walt’s Calculated Line: Titans -1.
Sunday, Oct 18, 1:00 ET
Comment on this game

The Game. Edge: Dolphins.

THE ADVENTURES OF TOM BRADY’S HAIRCUTS

I’ve been citing that Tom Brady has lost his “clutch” ability over the past few years, but I guess I can’t do that any longer because he just won his fourth Super Bowl. Or, can I…? Brady, after all, reached the “Big Game” with the help of his deflated footballs.

Brady was stuck on three Super Bowls for a long time before he resorted to cheating. So, what happened? The obvious answer is his wife. But more specifically, it’s the haircuts that his wife forces him into getting. It’s unknown to the media, but Brady’s haircuts are much more than just silly fashion statements; each haircut gives Brady a new persona. Including this one…

To see the story behind this one, check out the new Adventures of Tom Brady’s Haircuts!

MIAMI OFFENSE: If you somehow missed it, a report came out a week ago citing that Ryan Tannehill was throwing interceptions against the practice squad, prompting him to lash out at them and tell them to enjoy their meager paychecks. Real classy. The Dolphins had to make a coaching change, and they replaced Joe Philbin with P.C. Head Coach, who undoubtedly checked Tannehill’s privilege during the bye. Tannehill, consequently, is ready to rebound.

Or perhaps it’ll be because he’s battling the Titans. Either or. I think Tannehill should be able to have a solid game against a Tennessee squad that has some major liabilities in the secondary. The cornerbacks are all mediocre, while the safeties are abysmal. The Titans do own a solid pass rush, so having Branden Albert back will be a huge boost. Albert was sorely missed, as Miami couldn’t protect its young quarterback without him. Having him shielding his signal-caller’s blind side will allow Tannehill to expose the weaknesses in Tennessee’s stop unit.

Albert will also open up more running lanes for Lamar Miller, who has struggled thus far. Miller has averaged just 3.5 yards per carry through four games, but that number should rise with Albert on the field. Besides, the Titans can’t stop the rush; they would be 29th in that category right now if it wasn’t for their battle against the Bills last week. Stopping Anthony Dixon and Daniel Herron did wonders to inflate their defensive YPC figure.

TENNESSEE OFFENSE: Tannehill’s struggles are only part of the reason why the Dolphins are just 1-3. Ndamukong Suh, with his horrible effort and attitude, is the primary catalyst. Like Tannehill, Suh has acted like a self-entitled douche, so once again, I’m sure P.C. Head Coach used the week off to sneak into Suh’s room and draw male genitals on his face while he slept.

In all seriousness, it’ll be interesting to see if the Dolphins’ ground defense improves. With a week for Suh to realize that he’s been an a**hole and Cameron Wake to heal up, perhaps Miami will be ready to bolster its 23rd ranking against the run. Then again, containing Bishop Sankey and Antonio Andrews shouldn’t be much of a problem, so if either back has a big game, we’ll know that the Dolphins won’t get better versus the rush anytime soon.

Of course, the player the Dolphins have to worry about most is Marcus Mariota. The No. 2 overall pick didn’t have his greatest showing last week, but he was battling a tough defense. Miami’s stop unit was projected to be pretty stingy, but the league-worst pass rush (one sack) and struggling secondary have changed things. Perhaps Miami will be better in the former regard after the bye, but there’s no way of knowing that now. I think we can safely assume that Mariota will at least be better than he was last week.

RECAP: I like the Dolphins a lot this week. Here’s why:

1. Contrary to the Jets, the Dolphins have been hearing about how bad they are for two weeks. This is their chance to prove everyone wrong following their international disaster.

2. Miami is at its best as a road underdog. The team is 18-4 ATS as a road dog of less than five points since 2008, and the underdog in its previous 92 games is 61-31 ATS, which is just ridiculous. This is the first time the Dolphins are getting points in a true road game this year.

Miami is a three-unit selection for me this week.

FINAL THOUGHTS: Pinnacle seems to want money on Miami (+2 +100), but I still really like the Dolphins, as I expect a better effort from them now that their head coach isn’t a pushover. Betting Miami blindly as a road dog has been very lucrative over the years.

SUNDAY NOTES: Pinnacle is one of the few books offering +2.5, so there’s some concern, but I like getting the better team with points.

The Psychology. Edge: Dolphins.

The Dolphins have been hearing about how terrible they are for two weeks now. They’ll actually be motivated with a new head coach.

The Vegas. Edge: Titans.
Slight lean on the visitor.

Percentage of money on Miami: 62% (19,000 bets)

The Trends. Edge: Dolphins.

Underdog is 61-31 ATS in the Dolphins’ last 92 games.

Dolphins are 18-4 ATS as a road underdog of less than 5 since 2008.

Dolphins are 5-15 ATS after a bye the previous 20 years.

Opening Line: Titans -2.5.

Opening Total: 44.5.

Weather: .

Week 6 NFL Pick: Dolphins 17, Titans 13
Dolphins +2.5 (3 Units) — Correct; +$300
Under 43.5 (0 Units) — Incorrect; $0
Dolphins 38, Titans 10

Week 6 NFL Picks – Late Games
Carolina at Seattle, San Diego at Green Bay, Baltimore at San Francisco, New England at Indianapolis, New York Giants at Philadelphia

Prop/Teaser/Parlay Picks
A list of some of my favorite team/player prop picks this week
(Offense & defensive ROY picks to be counted whenever winners are announced.) Picks carried over on a week-to-week basis will be in black.

Prop/teaser/parlay picks posted in Week 6 NFL Picks – Late Games

NFL Picks - Nov. 15

2025 NFL Mock Draft - Nov. 13

NFL Power Rankings - Nov. 12

Fantasy Football Rankings - Sept. 4

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Note: For legality purposes, this Web site does not promote or advocate gambling. This is solely for entertainment purposes only.

Last Week's NFL Picks Against The Spread (Week 11, 2024): 6-7 (-$1,275)
Last Week's 2-3 Unit NFL Picks (Week 11, 2024): 2-2 (+$65)
Last Week's 4-5 Unit NFL Picks (Week 11, 2024): 1-3 (-$905)
Last Week Over-Under (Week 11, 2024): 6-7-1 ($0)
Last Week's Prop/ML/Teaser/Parlay Picks (Week 11, 2024): -$435

2024 NFL Picks of the Month: 1-2, 50.0% (-$500)

2024 Season NFL Picks Against The Spread: 78-79-6, 49.7% (-$4,565)
2024 Season 2-3 Unit NFL Picks: 19-25-1, 43.2% (-$1,180)
2024 Season 4-5 Unit NFL Picks: 15-17, 46.9% (-$1,555)
2024 Season Over-Under: 76-74-2, 50.7% (+$95)
2024 Season Prop/ML/Teaser/Parlay Picks: -$165

1999 Season NFL Picks Against The Spread: 27-41-3 (39.7%)
2000 Season NFL Picks Against The Spread: 128-123-8 (51.0%)
2001 Season NFL Picks Against The Spread: 127-122-7 (51.0%)
2002 Season NFL Picks Against The Spread: 123-136-7 (47.5%)
2003 Season NFL Picks Against The Spread: 146-126-8 (53.7%)
2004 Season NFL Picks Against The Spread: 157-123-8 (56.1%)
2005 Season NFL Picks Against The Spread: 156-126-11 (55.3%)
2006 Season NFL Picks Against The Spread: 151-135-9 (52.8%)
2007 Season NFL Picks Against The Spread: 162-135-10, 54.5% (+$3,585)
2008 Season NFL Picks Against The Spread: 148-140-7, 51.4% (+$6,105)
2009 Season NFL Picks Against The Spread: 151-124-9, 54.9% (+$4,235)
2010 Season NFL Picks Against The Spread: 144-131-8, 52.4% (+$5,880)
2011 Season NFL Picks Against The Spread: 137-133-12, 50.7% (-$1,335)
2012 Season NFL Picks Against The Spread: 130-145-8, 47.3% (-$7,445)
2013 Season NFL Picks Against The Spread: 144-131-8, 52.4% (+$7,825)
2014 Season NFL Picks Against The Spread: 143-133-7, 51.8% (-$1,885)
2015 Season NFL Picks Against The Spread: 134-138-12, 49.3% (-$3,215)
2016 Season NFL Picks Against The Spread: 148-127-10, 53.8% (+$780)
2017 Season NFL Picks Against The Spread: 137-140-8, 49.5% (-$4,300)
2018 Season NFL Picks Against The Spread: 140-134-14, 51.3% (+$845)
2019 Season NFL Picks Against The Spread: 149-128-9, 53.6% (+$1,200)
2020 Season NFL Picks Against The Spread: 138-124-7, 52.7% (+$9,350)
2021 Season NFL Picks Against The Spread: 153-141-2, 51.9% (+$210)
2022 Season NFL Picks Against The Spread: 154-134-8, 53.5% (+$9,860)
2023 Season NFL Picks Against The Spread: 144-141-7, 50.5% (-$7,285)

2002 Season 2-3 Unit NFL Picks: 41-49-2 (45.6%)
2003 Season 2-3 Unit NFL Picks: 52-51-2 (50.5%)
2004 Season 2-3 Unit NFL Picks: 65-44-3 (59.6%)
2005 Season 2-3 Unit NFL Picks: 77-61-1 (55.8%)
2006 Season 2-3 Unit NFL Picks: 65-61-4 (51.6%)
2007 Season 2-3 Unit NFL Picks: 83-59-5, 58.5% (+$4,110)
2008 Season 2-3 Unit NFL Picks: 44-57-3, 43.6% (-$3,510)
2009 Season 2-3 Unit NFL Picks: 49-35-3, 58.3% (+$2,260)
2010 Season 2-3 Unit NFL Picks: 51-38-4, 57.3% (+$3,180)
2011 Season 2-3 Unit NFL Picks: 44-51-3, 46.3% (-$2,715)
2012 Season 2-3 Unit NFL Picks: 45-50-2, 47.4% (-$2,130)
2013 Season 2-3 Unit NFL Picks: 38-42, 47.5% (-$2,890)
2015 Season 2-3 Unit NFL Picks: 47-44-1, 51.6% (-$820)
2016 Season 2-3 Unit NFL Picks: 42-35-3, 54.5% (+$475)
2017 Season 2-3 Unit NFL Picks: 32-40-3, 43.8% (-$2,395)
2018 Season 2-3 Unit NFL Picks: 52-41-2, 55.9% (+$2,670)
2019 Season 2-3 Unit NFL Picks: 44-36-2, 55.0% (+$655)
2020 Season 2-3 Unit NFL Picks: 47-43-3, 52.2% (-$1,965)
2021 Season 2-3 Unit NFL Picks: 50-50, 50.0% (-$1,570)
2022 Season 2-3 Unit NFL Picks: 56-44-2, 56.0% (+$1,860)
2023 Season 2-3 Unit NFL Picks: 44-40-3, 52.4% (+$285)

2002 Season 4-5 Unit NFL Picks: 11-12 (47.8%)
2003 Season 4-5 Unit NFL Picks: 16-13-1 (55.2%)
2004 Season 4-5 Unit NFL Picks: 18-11 (62.1%)
2005 Season 4-5 Unit NFL Picks: 25-22-1 (53.2%)
2006 Season 4-5 Unit NFL Picks: 21-29-1 (42.0%)
2007 Season 4-5 Unit NFL Picks: 35-30-2, 53.8% (+$420)
2008 Season 4-5 Unit NFL Picks: 39-26-2, 60.0% (+$4,055)
2009 Season 4-5 Unit NFL Picks: 29-26, 52.7% (+$330)
2010 Season 4-5 Unit NFL Picks: 32-22, 59.3% (+$4,790)
2011 Season 4-5 Unit NFL Picks: 14-14, 50.0% (-$1,260)
2012 Season 4-5 Unit NFL Picks: 14-21, 40.0% (-$3,650)
2013 Season 4-5 Unit NFL Picks: 17-9-3, 65.4% (+$2,970)
2015 Season 4-5 Unit NFL Picks: 17-16-2, 51.5% (-$1,120)
2016 Season 4-5 Unit NFL Picks: 21-22-5, 48.8% (-$1,465)
2017 Season 4-5 Unit NFL Picks: 20-22-1, 47.6% (-$1,595)
2018 Season 4-5 Unit NFL Picks: 27-32-1, 45.8% (-$4,735)
2019 Season 4-5 Unit NFL Picks: 37-27-2, 57.8% (+$2,185)
2020 Season 4-5 Unit NFL Picks: 37-22-1, 62.7% (+$5,515)
2021 Season 4-5 Unit NFL Picks: 32-32-1, 50.0% (-$725)
2022 Season 4-5 Unit NFL Picks: 41-30-1, 57.8% (+$3,725)
2023 Season 4-5 Unit NFL Picks: 32-27-1, 54.2% (-$1,310)

2001 Season Over-Under: 3-2 (60.0%)
2002 Season Over-Under: 121-91-3 (57.1%)
2003 Season Over-Under: 126-132-2 (48.8%)
2004 Season Over-Under: 139-124-4 (52.9%)
2005 Season Over-Under: 117-145-4 (44.7%)
2006 Season Over-Under: 129-132-5 (49.4%)
2007 Season Over-Under: 136-145-3, 48.4% (-$1,900)
2008 Season Over-Under: 137-125-6, 52.3% (+$860)
2009 Season Over-Under: 128-135-4, 48.7% (-$3,195)
2010 Season Over-Under: 128-135-5, 48.7% (-$5)
2011 Season Over-Under: 131-131-5, 50.0% (+$135)
2012 Season Over-Under: 125-121-5, 50.8% (+$30)
2013 Season Over-Under: 132-130-5, 50.4% (-$340)
2015 Season Over-Under: 143-119-5, 54.6% ($0)
2016 Season Over-Under: 123-141-1, 46.6% (+$95)
2017 Season Over-Under: 136-139-2, 49.5% (+$640)
2018 Season Over-Under: 118-128-3, 48.0% (-$225)
2019 Season Over-Under: 126-133-4, 48.6% (-$50)
2020 Season Over-Under: 141-122-6, 53.6% ($0)
2021 Season Over-Under: 132-151-3, 46.6% ($0)
2022 Season Over-Under: 133-149-2, 47.2% (-$225)
2023 Season Over-Under: 145-135-3, 51.8% (+$200)

2007 Season Prop/ML/Teaser/Parlay Picks: +$1,035
2008 Season Prop/ML/Teaser/Parlay Picks: +$1,775
2009 Season Prop/ML/Teaser/Parlay Picks: +$865
2010 Season Prop/ML/Teaser/Parlay Picks: -$200
2011 Season Prop/ML/Teaser/Parlay Picks: +$590
2012 Season Prop/ML/Teaser/Parlay Picks: -$1,685
2013 Season Prop/ML/Teaser/Parlay Picks: +$2,245
2015 Season Prop/ML/Teaser/Parlay Picks: -$855
2016 Season Prop/ML/Teaser/Parlay Picks: -$275
2017 Season Prop/ML/Teaser/Parlay Picks: -$510
2018 Season Prop/ML/Teaser/Parlay Picks: +$1,495
2019 Season Prop/ML/Teaser/Parlay Picks: -$1,715
2020 Season Prop/ML/Teaser/Parlay Picks: +$4,975
2021 Season Prop/ML/Teaser/Parlay Picks: +$3,455
2022 Season Prop/ML/Teaser/Parlay Picks: +$5,720
2023 Season Prop/ML/Teaser/Parlay Picks: -$2,565

2006 NFL Picks of the Month: 3-3 (50%)
2007 NFL Picks of the Month: 3-3, 50.0% (-$400)
2008 NFL Picks of the Month: 6-1, 85.7% (+$3,720)
2009 NFL Picks of the Month: 3-2, 60.0% (+$640)
2010 NFL Picks of the Month: 2-4, 33.3% (-$1,810)
2011 NFL Picks of the Month: 5-2, 71.4% (+$1,870)
2012 NFL Picks of the Month: 3-2, 60.0% (+$560)
2013 NFL Picks of the Month: 6-0, 100% (+$3,900)
2014 NFL Picks of the Month: 2-4, 33.3% (-$1,350)
2015 NFL Picks of the Month: 3-3, 50.0% (-$100)
2016 NFL Picks of the Month: 5-1, 83.3% (+$2,780)
2017 NFL Picks of the Month: 4-2, 66.7% (+$1,040)
2018 NFL Picks of the Month: 4-3, 57.1% (-$640)
2019 NFL Picks of the Month: 3-3-1, 50.0% (-$625)
2020 NFL Picks of the Month: 3-2, 60.0% (+$665)
2021 NFL Picks of the Month: 2-3, 40.0% (-$920)
2022 NFL Picks of the Month: 3-4, 42.9% (-$1,615)
2023 NFL Picks of the Month: 2-5, 28.6% (-$2,550)

Career NFL Picks Against The Spread: 3,499-3,231-202, 52.0% (+$17,105)
Career 2-3 Unit NFL Picks: 1,126-1,010-57 (52.7%)
Career 4-5 Unit NFL Picks: 568-502-25 (53.1%)
Career Over-Under: 2,935-2,908-76 (50.2%)
Career Second-Half NFL Picks: 23-16-1 (59.0%)
Career NFL Picks of the Month: 47-36-1 (56.6%)

My Team-by-Team ATS Record
This section shows how well I do when picking each team this year. The purpose is to see how well I read each team. Pushes are not displayed. Winning/losing streak in parentheses.

Cowboys: 5-3	Bears: 4-5	Bucs: 6-4	49ers: 6-3
Eagles: 4-5	Lions: 8-1	Falcons: 5-5	Cardinals: 8-2
Giants: 3-6	Packers: 5-3	Panthers: 4-6	Rams: 4-5
Redskins: 4-5	Vikings: 3-6	Saints: 5-5	Seahawks: 6-2

Bills: 3-7	Bengals: 2-8	Colts: 5-5	Broncos: 6-4
Dolphins: 3-6	Browns: 3-6	Jaguars: 2-7	Chargers: 5-3
Jets: 5-5	Ravens: 4-5	Texans: 4-6	Chiefs: 3-5
Patriots: 5-3	Steelers: 3-6	Titans: 5-3	Raiders: 4-5

Divisional: 18-22 (2011-23: 608-561)	2x Game Edge: 14-13 (2011-23: 401-387)	2x Motivation Edge: 30-24 (2011-23: 510-441)	2x Spread Edge: 18-27 (2011-23: 239-211)
2x Vegas Edge: 30-41 (2011-23: 448-446)	2x Trend Edge: 12-7 (2011-23: 321-293)	Double Edge: 11-16 (2011-23: 207-185)	Triple Edge: 4-7 (2011-23: 33-37)