NFL Picks Against the Spread: Week 2, 2014

NFL Picks (Preseason 2014): 8-7-1 (-$20)
NFL Picks (Week 1, 2014): 8-8 (+$110)

NFL Picks (2014): 16-15-1 (+$90)
NFL Picks (2013): 144-131-8 (+$5,580)
NFL Picks (2012): 130-145-8 (-$5,760)
NFL Picks (2011): 137-133-12 (-$1,925)
NFL Picks (2010): 144-131-8 (+$6,080)
NFL Picks (2009): 151-124-9 (+$3,370)
NFL Picks (2008): 136-125-6 (+$4,330)
If you don’t quite understand the line, total or anything else, go to my Sports Betting FAQ.

Vegas betting action updated Sept. 15, 5:30 p.m. ET. Follow @walterfootball for updates.


Go to Week 2 NFL Picks – Late Games





Pittsburgh Steelers (1-0) at Baltimore Ravens (0-1)
Line: Ravens by 2.5. Total: 44.

Las Vegas Hilton Advance Point Spread : Ravens -3.
Walt’s Calculated Line: Ravens -1.5.
Thursday, Sept. 11, 8:25 ET
Comment on this game

The Game. Edge: None.

WEEK 1 RECAP: What a crazy Sunday. In a span of literally one minute, the Browns scored to cover against the Steelers, the Raiders backdoored against the Jets, the Eagles frontdoored the Jaguars, and the Ravens came back from down 15-0 to take the lead versus Cincinnati. I can’t remember four games having a betting swing in such a short time span.

I was 8-8 against the spread last week. I was only slightly in the black, but I hit my top three plays of the week with the Browns, Raiders and Dolphins all covering. What hurt were the one- and two-unit selections. I lost all of them. I feel robbed by the Jaguars and Broncos failing to cover, but I did get very lucky with Oakland. What I’m most angry about were those dumb 1-unit picks. I looked back on them earlier and thought to myself, Why did I even bet on those games? I didn’t even like those sides! I’ll try to be more selective going forward.

Some of you may have noticed that I didn’t have any four- or five-unit selections in Week 1. That’s because Week 1 historically has been my worst week. There will be higher-unit choices the rest of the season.

BALTIMORE OFFENSE: It’s funny that for all the Ray Rice hoopla – I’ll get that later in my weekly NFL notes – the story has no effect on who’s playing in this game. Rice was suspended for this contest anyway, so Bernard Pierce and/or Justin Forsett were going to carry the load regardless. The oft-injured Bernard was benched last week because he fumbled. He was ineffective anyway, and Forsett proved to be an upgrade. With Rice showing signs of decline last year, you have to wonder if Forsett was Baltimore’s best backfield option even before Rice’s contract was terminated.

The backfield is actually the least of Baltimore’s issues. The line can’t pass protect, and Joe Flacco is struggling mightily as a result. Flacco was definitely partly to blame for his team’s offensive ineptitude versus Cincinnati, but he can’t do anything behind that front.

Luckily for Flacco, the Steelers don’t have much of a pass rush. The Steelers sacked Brian Hoyer three times in the opener, but had major difficulty getting pressure on him overall. I don’t know what happened to Jarvis Jones, but he is terrible. Jones and company aren’t doing any favors for the secondary, which was also inept. Flacco will definitely have more success in this contest.

PITTSBURGH OFFENSE: Speaking of being incapable of generating pressure, the Ravens didn’t rattle Andy Dalton in the opener whatsoever. Dalton was hit just once the entire game. Once! The Steelers don’t have an elite offensive front, but the group should be able to keep the underwhelming Baltimore pass-rushers at bay, which will give Ben Roethlisberger all of the time he needs.

Roethlisberger will be able to exploit some holes in Baltimore’s secondary. Lardarius Webb was out Sunday, and he may not be able to suit up on such short rest. If so, Chykie Brown, who struggled versus Cincinnati, will start once again. Safety Darian Stewart is also a liability. With Antonio Brown playing at the top of his game and Markus Wheaton emerging, Roethlisberger should be able to slice through the Ravens’ defensive backfield.

Fortunately for the Ravens, they actually do something well on this side of the ball. They contained the run pretty well last week, limiting the Bengals to 3.7 yards per carry. Le’Veon Bell might find it more challenging to reach the century mark this week.

RECAP: The Steelers are 8-4 against the spread against the Ravens when they’re underdogs. That’s because these games are always close. The previous five matchups have been decided by: 2, 3, 3, 3 and 3. Going back even further, excluding one outlier, the results before that have come by: 7, 3, 3, 3 and 3.

I like the Steelers, but I preferred them much more when the spread opened at +3. It’s +2.5 now, which isn’t as appealing. Still though, Pittsburgh is the right side, especially in the wake of the Rice distraction. All the players have done this week is talk about Rice. How can they possibly get mentally focused for this game?

I’ll be posting NFL Picks on Wednesday. Follow me at @walterfootball for updates.

FINAL THOUGHTS: There was more action on the Steelers earlier in the week. The money has somewhat evened out, though there’s still a lean on the visitor. I’m staying with one unit on Pittsburgh. The Ravens play well at home, but it’s tough to imagine them focusing with the Ray Rice drama hanging over their heads.


The Psychology. Edge: Steelers.
You have to think the Ravens will be distracted by the Ray Rice saga.


The Vegas. Edge: Ravens.
The Steelers are a public dog.
  • Percentage of money on Pittsburgh: 65% (59,000 bets)


    The Trends. Edge: None.
  • History: Home Team has won 18 of the last 25 meetings (Flacco 3-7 vs. Roethlisberger).
  • Steelers are 24-12 ATS on the road off a home division win the previous 36 instances.
  • Ravens are 19-10 ATS at home as an underdog or favorite of 1-7 points with Joe Flacco.
  • Opening Line: Ravens -3.
  • Opening Total: 43.5.
  • Weather: .


    Week 2 NFL Pick: Steelers 26, Ravens 23
    Steelers +2.5 (1 Unit) — Incorrect; -$110
    Over 44 (0 Units) — Incorrect; $0
    Ravens 26, Steelers 6






    Detroit Lions (1-0) at Carolina Panthers (1-0)
    Line: Panthers by 1. Total: 43.

    Las Vegas Hilton Advance Point Spread : Panthers -2.5.
    Walt’s Calculated Line: Panthers -1.5.
    Sunday, Sept. 14, 1:00 ET
    Comment on this game

    The Game. Edge: Lions.

    WEEK 2 BETTING TRENDS: Something rare occurred in Week 1. I’m not talking about a team (Bears) knocking out half the participants in our Survivor Pool right away. I’m not referring to Derek Anderson winning a game either. Four teams with something in common – Saints, Packers, Patriots, Colts – all suffered defeats. What they have in common is that their quarterbacks are future Hall of Famers.

    I’m well aware that Andrew Luck is just in his third year, but he has otherworldly talent and appears to be on track for Canton in two decades or so. Drew Brees, Tom Brady and Aaron Rodgers will certainly be heading there once they wrap up their careers.

    I mention this phenomenon because these sorts of quarterbacks have an exceptional track record of covering the spread following a defeat. Let’s look at the overall data:

    Quarterback ATS after loss
    Tom Brady (since 2003) 24-9
    Drew Brees (with Saints) 28-17
    Andrew Luck 10-0
    Aaron Rodgers (since 2009) 16-8

    If you just bet this blindly, you’d be 78-34 against the spread. In other words, you could probably buy your own tropical island if you recognized how great these quarterbacks were and wagered on them to recover from adversity.

    Of course, it’s difficult to bet into things blindly, as circumstances are always different. For instance, all four quarterbacks are favored in Week 2. So, how do the numbers look when they’re laying points? Here’s the chart:

    Quarterback ATS as favorites after loss
    Tom Brady (since 2003) 14-9
    Drew Brees (with Saints) 20-12
    Andrew Luck 6-0
    Aaron Rodgers (since 2009) 13-6

    That’s not as good, but I would still gladly take a 53-27 ATS record. It’s a 66.25-percent cover rate as opposed to the 69.64 figure.

    It should be noted that the Saints, Patriots and Packers are a special sort of favorite. The latter is laying more than a touchdown, while New Orleans and New England are favored on the road. Let’s take a look at how these quarterbacks have fared in those spots:

  • Drew Brees as a road favorite off a loss: 5-4 ATS
  • Tom Brady as a road favorite off a loss: 6-2 ATS
  • Aaron Rodgers as a 7.5+ home favorite off a loss: 6-2 ATS

    As you can see, Brady and Rodgers are very bettable in these spots, while Brees is not. That’s not a surprise because the Saints aren’t as good on the road.

    CAROLINA OFFENSE: Ron Rivera said that Cam Newton will play in this game. I’m not sure if that’s a completely good thing. I’m not going to act like a drunken Derek Anderson and drunkenly say that Derek Anderson is the better option, because he’s not. It’s just that Newton is so banged up that he probably won’t be very effective. The rib injury is one thing, but his ankle was giving him so much trouble in the preseason that he was extremely reluctant to scramble.

    If Newton can’t run around against the Lions, he’ll have major issues maintaining drives because unlike the Buccaneers, Detroit brings a good amount of pressure. Carolina’s offensive line is an abomination, so the Lions won’t have much difficulty getting heat on Newton.

    Detroit also played well versus the run against the Giants. Granted, Rashad Jennings isn’t the most talented running back in the NFL, but neither are DeAngelo Williams and Jonathan Stewart. Newton will have to carry this offense, but I don’t think he’s equipped to do that right now.

    DETROIT OFFENSE: Carolina’s defense will have to win this game. The unit rattled Josh McCown and eventually had the veteran quarterback throwing countless passes while falling down. Stopping Matthew Stafford will obviously be more of a challenge, especially considering how fit the former No. 1 overall pick is. Stafford is in great shape, and he used his new-found athleticism to escape pressure and make plays downfield Monday night.

    With his starting right tackle out, Stafford will need to do that again because the Panthers have one of the top front sevens in the NFL. Fortunately for him, Carolina’s secondary isn’t very good, so if he can buy time in the pocket like he did against the Giants, he’ll drop successful bombs to Calvin Johnson once again.

    Reggie Bush will also be a threat as a pass-catcher out of the backfield, but I expect the Carolina linebackers to limit his gains. Bush, like last week, won’t do much as a runner. The Panthers just completely shut down Doug Martin, so they shouldn’t have any problems against the inferior Bush.

    RECAP: I don’t have a good feel for this game. I like teams coming off Monday night blowouts (see trends below), but Detroit could be overconfident after beating such a bad team so soundly.

    I’ll be taking the Lions because my calculated spread is Panthers -1.5, but either side covering wouldn’t surprise me.

    FINAL THOUGHTS: I don’t have a read on this game. I’m leaning Lions, but I don’t trust them.

    SUNDAY ADJUSTMENTS: The public has bet this down Sunday morning. I still think the Lions are the right side though. No action for me.


    The Psychology. Edge: None.
    No edge found.


    The Vegas. Edge: Panthers.
    Tons of action on the Lions.
  • Percentage of money on Detroit: 69% (32,000 bets)


    The Trends. Edge: Lions.
  • MNF Magic: Teams coming off MNF wins of 20+ are 29-9 ATS the following week since 2005.
  • Panthers are 38-48 ATS at home since 2003.
  • Opening Line: Panthers -3.
  • Opening Total: 44.
  • Weather: .


    Week 2 NFL Pick: Lions 20, Panthers 17
    Lions +1 (0 Units) — Incorrect; $0
    Under 43.5 (0 Units) — Correct;$0
    Panthers 24, Lions 7






    Miami Dolphins (1-0) at Buffalo Bills (1-0)
    Line: Bills by 1. Total: 43.

    Las Vegas Hilton Advance Point Spread : Bills -1.
    Walt’s Calculated Line: Pick.
    Sunday, Sept. 14, 1:00 ET
    Comment on this game

    The Game. Edge: Dolphins.

    VEGAS UPDATE: The Vegas sportsbooks had record winnings on Sunday. Never before had they ever taken in so much money. That’s because most of the underdogs covered. Can you imagine what would’ve happened had the Jaguars held on to their cover against the Eagles? The sportsbooks won most with the Falcons, Browns, Bills and Dolphins all beating the spread. They lost with the Eagles and Chargers.

    This is great for the books, but they better be careful; they can’t take too much of the bettors’ money. The degenerates will have to pay alimony once their wives divorce them for gambling away their children’s college funds.

    Once again, follow @walterfootball for updates.

    BUFFALO OFFENSE: The Bills surely proved everyone wrong last week. Everyone doubted them, but they went into Chicago and picked apart the Bears’ mighty defense. Jay Cutler, who never, ever makes any mistakes, inexplicably threw some foolish passes late across his body. The Bills then prevailed in overtime, thanks to a Fred Jackson run.

    I’m obviously being facetious. Beating Chicago was no big deal, and overcoming Miami might actually be more of a challenge. Part of that is because the Dolphins actually are somewhat capable of stopping the run; they limited the Patriots to 3.8 yards per carry. I still don’t trust Miami’s linebacking corps, but what the Dolphins have is infinitely superior to what Chicago sports on defense.

    What the Dolphins do best is get pressure on the quarterback with Cameron Wake and Jared Odrick. The Bears don’t have an elite pass-rushing threat, so Buffalo will have to worry about that this week. With C.J. Spiller and Fred Jackson unlikely to run as well, E.J. Manuel will have to do more, and that’s never a good thing – especially considering all of the heat he’ll face from the Dolphins’ defensive line.

    MIAMI OFFENSE: Buffalo’s defense was able to overcome the Bears because the offense stayed on the field long enough, making Jay Cutler’s antsy while standing on the sideline. An antsy Cutler is never a good thing.

    I expect Ryan Tannehill to be more careful with the football, but only by default; he threw an interception by making a bad decision versus the Patriots. If the Bills can get pressure on him – and I expect them to with Mario Williams and Jerry Hughes (not Marcell Dareus; he was putrid in the opener) – he could turn the ball over once again.

    The Dolphins can prevent this from happening, however, by continuously pounding the ball on the ground. Knowshon Moreno was fantastic in his 2014 debut, and he should be able to pick up where he left off because Buffalo’s anemic linebacking corps is so dreadful at containing the run.

    RECAP: This is another tough one to call. The Dolphins are definitely the better team, but I don’t like them in this spot because they’ll be overconfident after dismantling the Patriots. Besides, the Bills can be pretty decent at home. I’ll actually be going with them this week, but I’m not doing so with any conviction.

    FINAL THOUGHTS: Mixed results – the sharps are on the Bills, but the consensus in the Las Vegas Hilton Supercontest, which is often wrong, is on Buffalo as well. The Bills believe that they’re good, and with Miami coming off a huge victory, they appear to be the right side. I just don’t trust them enough.

    SUNDAY ADJUSTMENTS: Chad Millman noted that the sharps are on the Dolphins, but there’s plenty of sharp action on Buffalo as well. People have mixed feelings on this game. I do too.


    The Psychology. Edge: Bills.
    The Dolphins might have a letdown after defeating the arch-rival Patriots.


    The Vegas. Edge: None.
    Equal action.
  • Percentage of money on Miami: 57% (25,000 bets)


    The Trends. Edge: None.
  • History: Bills have won 3 of the last 4 meetings.
  • Dolphins are 16-7 ATS on the road vs. teams with a winning record since 2007.
  • Underdog is 52-22 ATS in the Dolphins’ last 74 games.
  • Dolphins are 2-9 ATS as a favorite coming off a SU win as an underdog since 2007.
  • Bills are 13-24 ATS in their last 37 home games vs. a team with a winning record.
  • Opening Line: Bills -1.
  • Opening Total: 43.5.
  • Weather: .


    Week 2 NFL Pick: Bills 19, Dolphins 16
    Bills -1 (0 Units) — Correct; $0
    Under 43 (0 Units) — Correct; $0
    Bills 29, Dolphins 10






    Jacksonville Jaguars (0-1) at Washington Redskins (0-1)
    Line: Redskins by 6. Total: 43.

    Las Vegas Hilton Advance Point Spread : Redskins -6.5.
    Walt’s Calculated Line: Jaguars -2.
    Sunday, Sept. 14, 1:00 ET
    Comment on this game

    The Game. Edge: Jaguars.

    HATE MAIL: Another week, another stack of hate mails. These are from the comment boards:

    glad i didn’t listen to your advice, walt

    You didn’t want to hit your top three plays?

    LOL Walt is 0-4 in college so far. Guy is a joke.

    Up to 5-5 now. Can I still be a joke though? I like to make people laugh.

    Guess who needs to stop hating on the bills your dumb ass. You thought bills are worst team in the league think again. Maybe start giving them some credit.

    Who are you, CATS? “You thought bills are worst team in the league think again” sounded a lot like “All your base are belong to us.” Would it kill you to put a comma in there so I know what the hell you’re talking about? Are you saying my stupid rear end hates on the Bills? Well, it is a stupid rear end, I’ll admit that much.

    WASHINGTON OFFENSE: You know that Dish commercial with the kangaroo talking to that guy from Malcolm in the Middle, Matt Leinart, Heath Shuler and Brian Bosworth? I feel like Robert Griffin might be joining them soon. In fact, Griffin and Leinart could become best friends. I don’t think Griffin will enjoy Leinart’s errotic hot tub escapades with Nick Lachey, but he already shares Leinart’s habit of checking the ball down as much as possible.

    Leinart was known as Captain Checkdown, so Griffin can be Commander Checkdown. Griffin refuses to go deep or run around at all. It’s absolutely embarrassing that he had just three scrambles for two rushing yards in the opener. Things won’t get any easier this week because the Jaguars sport a tremendous pass rush that gave Nick Foles problems until stud safety John Cyprien got hurt. Cyprien is in concussion protocol, so there’s a chance he’ll be ready for this game. If he’s available, Griffin won’t have much success, but I don’t think he’ll play well regardless, thanks in part to his offensive line’s inability to pass protect.

    The Redskins will have to move the chains via the ground game. Alfred Morris doesn’t have the same game-breaking ability as LeSean McCoy and Darren Sproles, but he should be able to churn out decent yardage and help control the clock.

    JACKSONVILLE OFFENSE: The Jaguars could be 1-0 right now if Gus Bradley started Blake Bortles. Instead, he inexcusably went with Chad Henne when his old mentor made the right move by using Russell Wilson as a rookie over another crappy veteran (Matt Flynn). I don’t understand this at all. Bradley should’ve named Bortles the starter for this week after watching Henne fail to complete routine passes in the second half of Sunday’s game. Bradley is a great defensive mind, but he’s displaying a Rex Ryan level of offensive incompetence.

    Fortunately for the Jaguars, Henne will have success against Washington’s sorry secondary. David Amerson, Ryan Clark and Bacarri Rambo can’t cover anyone, so Henne will be able to repeatedly connect with Allen Hurns and Marqise Lee again.

    The Redskins are also useless in run support, but the Jaguars might not be able to take advantage of that. Toby Gerhart, who wasn’t very good to begin with, is nursing an ankle injury. He might not be able to play, but even if he does, he won’t be 100 percent.

    RECAP: The Jaguars are one of my top two picks this week. Here’s why:

    1. This spread is WAY off. The proper number, if the public wasn’t brainwashed by ESPN into thinking that Griffin was any good, would be Redskins -3. However, my calculated line is Jaguars -2. That’s eight points of value. Jacksonville is the better team, yet Washington is favored by six. Think about that for a second.

    2. Speaking of Griffin, did you know that he’s 3-12 against the spread since that playoff game against Seattle? You can make tons of money by betting against overhyped teams and players, and Griffin is most definitely overhyped, thanks to ESPN. Griffin’s best attribute has always been his rushing ability, but he’s too scared to run now because of the injuries he’s incurred. He’s not a very good passer, so he’s just a shell of his former self at the moment.

    3. A spread of six has great meaning because the Six and Six Rule applies. It basically says that teams that finishes 6-10 or worse covers six-point spreads only about 25 percent of the time. It can be difficult to determine which teams go 6-10 or worse, but not in this case. I highly doubt Washington will accumulate seven or more victories this season.

    4. I love betting on underdogs playing their second-consecutive road game following a loss. The public assumes this isn’t a good thing, but it is. For whatever reason, coaches have their team focused in these situations.

    5. Here’s a cool trend if you’re into that sort of thing: Home favorites coming off a double-digit loss battling another team that just suffered a double-digit loss are just 33-60 against the spread dating back to 1989 (Monday night games excluded).

    FINAL THOUGHTS: The sharps are on neither side. I don’t like John Cyprien is out, but Jacksonville is still the better team. Still confident enough to go four units on the Jaguars.

    SUNDAY ADJUSTMENTS: The sharps finally bit on the Jaguars on Sunday morning. It’s hard to believe a team as bad as the Redskins are favored by this much.


    The Psychology. Edge: Jaguars.
    The Redskins need to rebound from a loss, but they do have two divisional matchups after this one, followed by a matchup against the Seahawks.


    The Vegas. Edge: None.
    Equal action.
  • Percentage of money on Jacksonville: 58% (25,000 bets)


    The Trends. Edge: None.
  • Jaguars are 9-20 ATS vs. NFC opponents since 2007.
  • Jaguars are 18-43 ATS against non-divisional opponents since 2008.
  • Redskins are 6-14 ATS in September home games since 2001.
  • Opening Line: Redskins -5.5.
  • Opening Total: 44.
  • Weather: .


    Week 2 NFL Pick: Jaguars 23, Redskins 17
    Jaguars +5 (4 Units) — Incorrect; -$440
    Under 43 (0 Units) — Incorrect; $0
    Redskins 41, Jaguars 10






    Dallas Cowboys (0-1) at Tennessee Titans (1-0)
    Line: Titans by 3. Total: 49.

    Las Vegas Hilton Advance Point Spread : Titans -2.5.
    Walt’s Calculated Line: Titans -4.5.
    Sunday, Sept. 14, 1:00 ET
    Comment on this game

    The Game. Edge: Titans.

    If you haven’t seen this yet, we have a new NFL Pick Em Contest on this Web site. It’s free entry, and there are monthly and seasonal prizes: $350 for the year, and $100 for each month. It’s not too late to enter, so sign up soon!

    DALLAS OFFENSE: The Titans’ defense really surprised me last week. The unit was miserable in the preseason, surrendering opening-drive touchdowns to the likes of Matt Flynn and Luke McCown. The Chiefs couldn’t do anything against them, though Alex Smith didn’t have any of his weapons around him, including Jamaal Charles, who was benched for stealing Andy Reid’s precious cupcake, as seen in the NFL Power Rankings.

    The Cowboys will offer a much greater challenge. I’m aware that saying something like that sounds silly, considering that Tony Romo was a train wreck in the opener, but Dallas still has plenty of weapons, including a top-three NFL receiver, a terrific running back (when healthy) and an emerging, second-year wideout. The offensive line is stout as well, save for left guard Ronald Leary.

    Having said that, there’s something seriously wrong with Romo. He’s clearly not 100 percent coming off his second back procedure, and he also doesn’t appear to be completely checked in mentally. There’s no reason for him to continuously throw into double and triple coverage like he did against the 49ers. Tennessee will take advantage with more take-aways if Romo continues to do play moronic football.

    TENNESSEE OFFENSE: As poorly as the Cowboys’ scoring unit looks, the defense is in much worse shape. The defensive line barely put any heat on Colin Kaepernick in the opener. Jeremy Mincey applied some pressure, but he was the only lineman who actually did anything productive. Mincey will be going up against Michael Roos in this contest, so I don’t expect him to do much.

    If that happens to be the case, Jake Locker will have all the time in the world to connect with his budding receiving corps. Dallas’ secondary surrendered the third-most passing yardage in league history last year, and it didn’t look any better versus the 49ers. Colin Kaepernick, who struggled in the preseason, was pretty much flawless, so Locker will be able to do whatever he pleases.

    The Cowboys aren’t as bad against the rush – Rolando McClain looked decent in run support – but they still struggle to stop it. Shonn Greene is a worthless plodder, but he’ll likely have his best performance of the season this Sunday.

    RECAP: I’ve seen some people puzzled that the “Titans are favored by so much.” I don’t think they’re favored by enough. My numbers say the Titans should be laying 4.5, as they’re underrated. The Cowboys, meanwhile, are an abomination – and not everyone seems to realize that quite yet.

    Having said that, I’m not wagering on this game. There are no situational edges here, and one point of value isn’t enough for me to bet.

    FINAL THOUGHTS: No sharp action here. I thought they might take the Titans, but then again, they were way off on Dallas last week. I don’t get how they don’t understand how bad these Cowboys are. I’d bet Tennessee, but I don’t like that team in the role of a favorite.

    SUNDAY ADJUSTMENTS: The sharps appear to have a blind spot. Chad Millman noted that the Cowboys outplayed the 49ers last week, but he and the bettors he talked to are making a huge mistake by not factoring in Dallas’ turnovers. The Cowboys always have screwed up like that and they will continue to do so. I don’t like the Titans much either, but confidently wagering on a team as bad as Dallas is a mistake.


    The Psychology. Edge: None.
    No edge found.


    The Vegas. Edge: None.
    Equal action.
  • Percentage of money on Dallas: 58% (25,000 bets)


    The Trends. Edge: Cowboys.
  • The underdog is 44-19 ATS in Cowboys games since 2010.
  • Titans are 21-10 ATS in non-conference home games.
  • Opening Line: Titans -3.
  • Opening Total: 49.
  • Weather: .


    Week 2 NFL Pick: Titans 31, Cowboys 24
    Titans -3 (0 Units) — Incorrect; $0
    Over 49.5 (0 Units) — Incorrect; $0
    Cowboys 26, Titans 10




    Arizona Cardinals (1-0) at New York Giants (0-1)
    Line: Giants by 2. Total: 41.5.

    Las Vegas Hilton Advance Point Spread : Giants -2.5.
    Walt’s Calculated Line: Cardinals -2.
    Sunday, Sept. 14, 1:00 ET
    Comment on this game

    The Game. Edge: Cardinals.

    I wouldn’t say my weekly random NFL notes cluttered these picks pages, so I’ll keep them here. What I’m also going to do is store all of them in a Random NFL Notes section so that you can go back and read previous entries in the future.

    Some random NFL notes I can’t put anywhere else:

    This entire section will be dedicated to Ray Rice. If you somehow haven’t seen the new Ray Rice video, here’s the link. I’ll discuss all aspects of it:

    Ray Rice and the Video: I was pretty surprised when I saw that everyone on Twitter was outraged by the video. What Rice did sucks, but we already knew that he hit his then-fiancee and dragged her out of an elevator. I didn’t understand why people were so outraged upon actually seeing the video. Adam Schefter said something like, “There’s a difference between hearing about it and seeing it.” Uhh… no, there’s not. What did people think happened before seeing this? Did they believe that Rice prepared a lovely dinner for his then-fiancee, bought her flowers and then had his hand slip into her face while accidentally knocking her out? Why would anyone think that this was anything but a Little Mac vs. Glass Joe situation?

    Everyone should’ve been just as angry when this story first surfaced, and that’s when Baltimore should have released Rice, or at least given him an unpaid leave of absence.

    Ray Rice and the NFL: I thought Rice should’ve gotten at least eight games back when this story first broke. I wrote that it was a complete joke that he was essentially given a slap on the wrist (two games), while Josh Gordon was banned for the entire year for testing positive for weed. I wouldn’t have gone as far as to expel Rice indefinitely because taking away a first-time offender’s livelihood for what could’ve been a horrible, drunken mistake seems over the top, but an entire year would’ve been appropriate.

    Something that people find appalling is that the NFL “covered this up.” Keith Olbermann, with an alarming amount of sand stuck in his vag, sounded off on Roger Goodell, demanding for the NFL commissioner to step down for the way he handled the situation. Olbermann was absolutely irate and dumbfounded that the league covered this up. Olbermann, as usual, was being a mouth-breathing moron. It’s not like Goodell and his cronies covered up a murder or a plot to assassinate the U.S. president. Domestic violence is terrible, but there’s no reason to be so incredibly angry about not wanting the video leaked. In fact, it’s very understandable why the NFL and the Ravens made sure it didn’t surface. It would’ve made the league and the team look bad anyway, even if Rice had been exiled.

    Ray Rice and the Ravens: Oh, and don’t believe Goodell or the Ravens when they say that they never saw the tape. Of course they did. If the hotel staff and TMZ had access to it, so did the NFL.

    As much as people don’t want to admit it, the NFL is a business. The league and all of its employees will do what makes them the most money. Naive communists might be against this, but that’s just how it works. For the Ravens, having Rice on the roster made more financial sense to them – until the public saw this video. Once that happened, they were in jeopardy of losing sponsors, so it then made more sense to get rid of Rice.

    All of this was fueled by economics, and no one should be surprised or appalled by it. That’s just how the world works. But, in the end, Baltimore isn’t taking much of a hit. People will forget about this in a month or so when the next controversy occurs. The Ravens and the NFL will continue to keep printing money, and Rice won’t be missed at all because he was a declining has-been.

    Ray Rice and ESPN: Excluding Rice and what he did, perhaps the worst part of this story was hearing some of ESPN’s “personalities” discuss it. I found it absolutely ridiculous that the first person to talk about Rice on Monday NFL Countdown was Ray Lewis, who murdered someone more than a decade ago. If that wasn’t enough, Keyshawn Johnson chimed in. The same Keyshawn Johnson who was arrested for domestic assault in the spring.

    Half of ESPN’s employees are criminals, so it should’ve been in their best interest to just ignore this story. After all, Rice will probably be employed by ESPN sometime in the near future. Apologizing to their new co-worker once that happens could be awkward.

    Ray Rice and Janay Rice: I’d be remiss if I didn’t discuss Janay Rice. Janay took to Twitter on Tuesday, expressing her displeasure that this video was leaked because she had to “relive the incident.” Other people expressed similar sentiments – that TMZ (a piece of s*** company as far as I’m concerned) shouldn’t have released the tape.

    I don’t have an issue with the video being out. Janay was already reliving this incident every single morning by waking up next to Ray. She could have just as easily left him and filed charges. Instead, she married him, opting for a life of fame and fortune. Ray is a celebrity, and with celebrity comes no expectation of privacy. If she wanted the “good” – talking about the money; not being married to a wife-beater – she has to accept the bad as well. I could see her having beef if this video surfaced and she already left him, but Janay opted to marry Ray. It was incredibly naive of her not to believe that this video wouldn’t surface. Did she honestly think this would all just go away?

    Ray Rice and other media: There were some derp moments from other media sources. My editor pointed them both out, so I want to give him credit. The first occurred when Rotoworld editorialized that “Rice is lucky he isn’t in jail.” No, he’s not. That’s why he married Janay. In most U.S. states, spouses can’t be compelled to testify against each other. Back when the two got married, I remember my editor saying, “Ray Rice’s attorney is a genius.”

    Also, “The smart money is on Rice never playing another snap in the NFL,” also from Rotoworld. There’s a chance Rice won’t play again, but the smart money is not on it. Some may believe he won’t play again, but most people won’t be as angry a year or two from now. By then, Rice will come forward and claim some B.S. like he had a battle with alcoholism that he overcame. He found God, blah blah blah blah blah. He’ll show remorse – or fake it like QB Dog Killer – and then Tony Dungy will offer to mentor him, and some running back-hungry team will sign him. Just warning you in advance.

    On the bright side, when this happens, I’ll refer to Rice as RB Wife Beater.

    NEW YORK OFFENSE: Transitioning from a terrible story to a terrible player, Eli Manning carried over his awful play from the preseason to Monday night’s loss at Detroit. Manning is not comfortable in his new system, and his offensive line sucks, but he’s a big part of his offense’s ineptitude. He can’t hit simple passes anymore, and he’s still carelessly flinging interceptions like he did last year.

    Manning had zero success versus a Detroit defense that sports a pedestrian secondary. Arizona’s defensive backfield, on the other hand, is extremely talented. It gave Philip Rivers major problems Monday night, so how will Manning succeed when he and his supporting cast are infinitely worse than Rivers and his crew?

    The Cardinals also happen to be stout against the run. The Giants didn’t give Rashad Jennings enough carries against Detroit, but Jennings won’t muster much in this contest even if he’s given an ample workload. Thus, Manning, who will be stuck in long-yardage situations, will either take sacks or be responsible for more turnovers. John Abraham won’t be in the lineup; he has left the team and is contemplating retirement because of multiple concussions. Still though, New York’s offensive line is so bad that Calais Campbell and the other Cardinal pass-rushers will get through.

    ARIZONA OFFENSE: The Giants nearly suffered a huge blow at Detroit when Jason Pierre-Paul was lying on the ground, screaming in agony. Fortunately for the team, Pierre-Paul returned to the lineup shortly after leaving the game. He went on to play well the rest of the evening, so that’s good news for the Giants, who might be able to rattle Carson Palmer.

    Arizona’s offensive line was a disappointment Monday night. The Chargers got plenty of pressure on Palmer, who had to use some surprising mobility to escape from sacks. He may have to do the same thing this Sunday, though I’m sure he’ll still be able to locate Michael Floyd and Larry Fitzgerald versus an underwhelming back seven.

    Meanwhile, I wouldn’t expect much from Andre Ellington. The second-year runner shocked everyone by suiting up Monday, but he didn’t look like he was 100 percent. The Giants stop the run pretty well, so Ellington might have another mediocre outing.

    RECAP: There’s way too much public money on the Cardinals, so something fishy might happen. I also think Arizona might be distracted by Abaham’s sudden defection. Having said that, I’d still take the Cardinals if I had to. The Giants are atrocious, so I’ll be picking against them every week until further notice.

    FINAL THOUGHTS: The public pounded the Cardinals all the way from +1 to -2.5. The sharps finally bit a bit at +2.5, bringing it back to +2. I wouldn’t recommend betting the Giants, however. They are a poisonous team.

    SUNDAY ADJUSTMENTS: Carson Palmer is out. Drew Stanton will start. The public loves the Giants now. I’d like to respond with a two-unit wager on the Cardinals. I love betting on good teams missing their starting quarterback. Stanton is solid, so I still expect Arizona to win. The Giants, meanwhile, are an abomination.


    The Psychology. Edge: Giants.
    John Abraham just left the team. Will the Cardinals be distracted?


    The Vegas. Edge: Cardinals.
    Late money on the Giants with Carson Palmer out.
  • Percentage of money on Arizona: 62% (35,000 bets)


    The Trends. Edge: Giants.
  • Eli Manning is 30-19 ATS as an underdog since 2007.
  • Opening Line: Giants -2.
  • Opening Total: 45.
  • Weather: .


    Week 2 NFL Pick: Cardinals 20, Giants 16
    Cardinals +2 (2 Units) — Correct; +$200
    Under 41.5 (0 Units) — Correct; $0
    Cardinals 25, Giants 14




    New England Patriots (0-1) vs. Minnesota Vikings (1-0)
    Line: Patriots by 3. Total: 49.

    Las Vegas Hilton Advance Point Spread : Patriots -6.
    Walt’s Calculated Line: Patriots -3.5.
    Sunday, Sept. 14, 1:00 ET
    Comment on this game

    The Game. Edge: Patriots.

    As with the random NFL notes, I’m going to have all of my Random College Football Notes on one page as well.

    Random College Football Notes:

    1. The most prominent early game this past Saturday was that Nebraska-McNeese State near-upset. It looked like the team with the little horsie on their helmets was going to pull the upset, but some Husker running back named Ameer Abdullah Obolngata scored a touchdown with a minute left. The Nebraska fans cheered, but all I could think was: “Why?”

    Why would Nebraska fans cheer a go-ahead touchdown against McNeese State? Sure, their team won, but wouldn’t it be better if they had lost? That may not seem very logical, but a defeat could prompt Nebraska to fire its terrible head coach. And once that happens, maybe Nebraska wouldn’t come close to losing to some team with a stupid horsie on its helmet.

    Also, on McNeese State’s ensuing possession, the color analyst said something like, “We’re in Hail Mary territory now!” Except McNeese State was at its own 24-yard line. I don’t know what this guy was thinking. Did he assume that McNeese State injects stroids into its quarterback’s arm? Or perhaps he has some insight into some genetic experiments McNeese State is conducting. He could know that the McNeese State quarterback has a bionic arm. What the hell is McNeese State anyway? Who knows what type of shady stuff goes on at that school.

    2. Speaking of McNeese State, why is Nebraska playing them anyway? Why is Alabama taking on Florida Atlantic? It seems kind of silly, doesn’t it? The 49ers and Seahawks don’t schedule the Edmonton Eskimos. I just don’t see a point to these games. Think about it: If they beat those teams easily, it’s just a meaningless victory on the schedule, and the committee will ask, “Why didn’t you play a tougher team?” If they nearly lose or actually suffer a defeat, the coaching staff could be fired. It just seems like it’s a no-win situation.

    3. I was annoyed watching the USC-Stanford game. It was a tight battle that came down to the end. I’m sure many others had fun tuning into it, but it was an aggravating experience for me. That’s because the ABC Philadelphia station constantly made annoying beeping noises to alert the audience that there was a thunderstorm warning.

    I get that there should be some sort of alert if there’s a severe storm, but this thing was completely egregious. The beeps were extremely loud, and the graphic occupied a third of the screen. I couldn’t even see the score or how much time was remaining. Here’s what it looked like:



    See? How ridiculous is that? The kicker is that there wasn’t even a thunderstorm! It rained for like 20 minutes, and that was it. Thanks for ruining the game for me, ABC!

    NEW ENGLAND OFFENSE: I found it highly amusing that Bill Simmons told Cousin Sal on this week’s podcast that they shouldn’t overreact to Week 1, yet when it was time to discuss the Patriots, he said that they were done – just a few days after proclaiming that they were the best team in the AFC! Unreal. I already thought Brady was regressing, but he’s still a solid quarterback. He simply has never played well at Miami in extreme heat. It’s no surprise that he and his offense withered in the second half.

    Of course, the big problem is the offensive line. Even when the trade was made, I had no idea what the hell Bill Belichick was thinking by trading away Logan Mankins. The interior of New England’s front was already poor, so Belichick dealt his best blocker? Why? It’s hard not to like Linval Joseph and Sharrif Floyd in this matchup. I don’t see how the Patriots are going to block them.

    With that said, Brady will play better this week. He’ll have some practice time with Rob Gronkowski, and he won’t have to deal with high humidity in 100-degree conditions. The conditions would be ideal if this were being played in a dome, but I’m sure the Patriots aren’t upset that this is being played on a pseudo neutral site.

    MINNESOTA OFFENSE: It was obvious that the Patriots’ defense had major problems in the heat as well. The players, especially those up front, really wore down as the game went on. Chandler Jones and Rob Ninkovich offered nothing in terms of a pass rush, but I expect that to change in friendlier conditions.

    The Patriots’ ability to put pressure on the quarterback will be a huge boost to the secondary, which will feature Darrelle Revis blanketing Cordarrelle Patterson. Cassel will have to focus on getting the ball to inferior talents, though Kyle Rudolph is an exceptional target. Cassel will also have the benefit of operating in short yardage, thanks to his running game. Adrian Peterson didn’t score on his first rush like he promised, but he could make up for it this week.

    There’s one other thing that needs to be mentioned. Belichick coached Cassel for a number of years. He knows his strengths and weaknesses better than almost anyone. I’m sure Belichick will instruct his defenders to take advantage of flaws in Cassel’s game.

    RECAP: I know I’m going to sound like a square saying this, but I can’t imagine the Patriots losing two in a row. As written earlier, Brady is 6-2 against the spread as a road favorite coming off a loss. Bill Belichick is 7-2 ATS as a favorite in his second-consecutive road game. Of course, these trends may not hold up if Brady has indeed regressed, but as mentioned, Belichick could make up for that with his knowledge of Cassel’s game.

    ADRIAN PETERSON UPDATE: I’ll have final thoughts posted later tonight, but I wanted to address this first. This spread has risen to -6 in the wake of Adrian Peterson’s arrest. I no longer have any interest in betting this game. Sure, the Vikings might be distracted, but they could also band together like the Ravens. These things are impossible to predict. What’s certain is that the Patriots won’t take Minnesota as seriously without Peterson, and I don’t want to lay a bunch of points with a team possessing that sort of mindset.

    FINAL THOUGHTS: There was sharp action on the Vikings +3… and then Peterson was indicted. You have to feel bad for those who lost line value. Conversely, if you already bet on Patriots -3, you might want to consider hedging a bit (I’d recommend 25-33 percent).

    SUNDAY ADJUSTMENTS: wow, so much for Vikings +3 bettors being screwed over. The sharps (and those hedging) bet the hell out of Vikings +6. I’m going back to two units now that the Patriots are -3 again. By the way, I’m going over instead of under. Just a feeling.


    The Psychology. Edge: Unknown.
    Who knows how the Vikings will react to Adrian Peterson?


    The Vegas. Edge: Vikings.
    No one’s willing to quit on the Patriots just yet.
  • Percentage of money on New England: 85% (30,000 bets)


    The Trends. Edge: Patriots.
  • Patriots are 17-9 ATS on the road vs. NFC opponents since 2001.
  • Tom Brady is 160-55 as a starter (122-88 ATS).
  • Tom Brady is 30-14 ATS off a loss (4-8 ATS as -7 or more).
  • Tom Brady is 22-10 ATS off a loss since 2003 (4-7 ATS as -7 or more).
  • Tom Brady is 5-2 ATS after losing to the Dolphins.
  • Bill Belichick is 7-2 ATS as a favorite in his second-consecutive road game.
  • Opening Line: Patriots -3.
  • Opening Total: 49.
  • Weather: .


    Week 2 NFL Pick: Patriots 33, Vikings 24
    Patriots -3 (2 Units) — Correct; +$200
    Over 49 (0 Units) — Incorrect; $0
    Patriots 30, Vikings 7




    New Orleans Saints (0-1) at Cleveland Browns (0-1)
    Line: Saints by 5. Total: 50.

    Las Vegas Hilton Advance Point Spread : Saints -6.
    Walt’s Calculated Line: Saints -5.5.
    Sunday, Sept. 14, 1:00 ET
    Comment on this game

    The Game. Edge: Saints.

    If you’ve followed this site for a while, you might remember that I like to respond to my spam mails. Four years ago, a man named Jon Wire from the “United Bank of Africoan” promised me an ATM card of some sort, so I responded as a man named Mister Compassion Chuck Norris, who was raised by wolves. The following season, I received e-mails from Richard Held and Loon Bruce, who told me I won a Facebook Award, which comes with a “lump sum pay out of (750,000.00 GBP).” Pretending to be Matthew Millen Kim, I sent out my application and fake money.

    I messed around with a spammer pretending to be a black woman named Mulyana in 2012. I assumed Steve Urkel’s identity and had many exchanges with Mulyana. Click the link to see all of that. As for this past season, I pretended to be Riley Cooper and Aaron Hernandez in some responses.

    What’s in store for this season? Well, I imagine Josh Gordon will be involved. I’m going to post new Spam Mails here with my responses to avoid clutter.

    NEW ORLEANS OFFENSE: Last week’s loss definitely wasn’t Drew Brees’ fault. Brees went 29-of-42 for 333 yards, one touchdown and a pick, and he appeared to be leading his team to an overtime victory when a Marques Colston fumble set up the Falcons with a game-winning field goal. Brees was not battling a good defense, but it’s not like the Browns were much better in their opener.

    It was appalling to see Joe Haden and Justin Gilbert struggle so much. The two former first-round corners were constantly beaten by the Steeler wideouts, so I don’t see why Colston and Brandin Cooks wouldn’t have as much success. And then there’s Jimmy Graham, who is a matchup nightmare.

    The Saints’ running game also looked good last week. Mark Ingram has been impressive thus far, and he should thrive against a Cleveland stop unit that surrendered 119 yards on the ground to the Steelers.

    CLEVELAND OFFENSE: I was mildly surprised when Mike Pettine didn’t bench Brian Hoyer in favor of Johnny Manziel at halftime last week, but Pettine’s patience paid off. Hoyer was exceptional in the second half versus a gassed Pittsburgh defense that couldn’t cover, get pressure on the quarterback or stop the run.

    The Saints had similar issues in Atlanta. I wasn’t shocked to see the Steelers have defensive problems, but New Orleans boasted a top-10 defense in 2013. The unit was even expected to be stronger with the addition of Jairus Byrd, but many of the players couldn’t tackle at all. It was so bizarre. The Falcons were able to rip off 5.1 yards per carry against them, so the Browns could even post a better figure. Ben Tate is out, but rookie Terrance West proved to be very capable as a replacement.

    New Orleans won’t have to deal with the likes of Julio Jones and Roddy White in this matchup. However, Harry Douglas and Devin Hester also had big outings last week, so why can’t Andrew Hawkins and the other pedestrian Cleveland wideouts do the same?

    RECAP: Betting the Saints in outdoor games is never a lucrative proposition. They’re simply not as good outside, yet people seem to ignore that. Take this game for instance. As of Wednesday afternoon, more than 90 percent of the tickets are coming in on New Orleans!

    This spread is too high, so I think the Browns are the right side. However, I’m not willing to bet on them because the Saints will be desperate to avoid an 0-2 start.

    FINAL THOUGHTS: It sholdn’t surprise you that the sharps are on the Browns. There’s just way too much public money on New Orleans. I’d recommend staying away.

    SUNDAY ADJUSTMENTS: The sharps loved the Browns at +6.5 and +6. Don’t know if they’d take +5, as the value is gone.


    The Psychology. Edge: None.
    No edge found.


    The Vegas. Edge: Browns.
    Everyone expects the Saints to rebound.
  • Percentage of money on New Orleans: 92% (7,000 bets)


    The Trends. Edge: Saints.
  • Drew Brees is 27-15 ATS after a loss with the Saints (8-4 ATS as an underdog).
  • Saints are 7-3 ATS as favorites after losing as favorites.
  • Sean Payton is 8-3 ATS in his second-consecutive road game as a favorite.
  • Browns are 18-12 ATS after allowing 30 or more points since 2005.
  • Opening Line: Saints -6.
  • Opening Total: 47.5.
  • Weather: .


    Week 2 NFL Pick: Saints 24, Browns 20
    Browns +5 (0 Units) — Correct; $0
    Under 50 (0 Units) — Push; $0
    Browns 26, Saints 24




    Atlanta Falcons (1-0) at Cincinnati Bengals (1-0)
    Line: Bengals by 5.5. Total: 49.

    Las Vegas Hilton Advance Point Spread : Bengals -5.
    Walt’s Calculated Line: Bengals -3.5.
    Sunday, Sept. 14, 1:00 ET
    Comment on this game

    The Game. Edge: Bengals.

    Video of the Week: I’ve written tons of Jerks of the Week articles about the people at my gym. Ever wonder what it would be like if men and women ever switched roles at the gym?



    ATLANTA OFFENSE: Matt Ryan just had the game of his life, throwing for more yardage in a single game than anyone in Falcons’ franchise history. Unfortunately for him, it’ll be difficult to match that performance. The Saints inexplicably couldn’t tackle whatsoever in the opener. The Bengals, on the other hand, have one of the league’s premier defensive units – provided Vontaze Burfict is on the field. Burfict, the quarterback of Cincinnati’s stop unit, suffered a concussion at Baltimore. The Bengals were pitching a shutout while he was on the field, but suddenly looked much less formidable when he exited. His availability will have a huge say in how the Falcons perform on this side of the ball.

    Even if Burfict is out on the field, I expect the Falcons to have more success than the Ravens did. Ryan has much more to work with than Joe Flacco does; Cincinnati’s secondary is not trustworthy without Mike Zimmer, as we saw Terence Newman perform poorly at Baltimore. Julio Jones and Roddy White could both have big games.

    Burfict’s availability will have its greatest impact in the running game. The former Sun Devil is stout at containing the rush, so Steven Jackson and the other three Falcon tailbacks have to be praying that Burfict sits out Sunday’s game.

    CINCINNATI OFFENSE: The Bengals did a good job of moving the chains against the Ravens. Andy Dalton was very precise for the most part, and it really helped that he was hit just one single time in that contest. It’s hard to tell if his offensive line was mostly responsible for that, or if it was Baltimore’s defensive ineptitude. Perhaps it was both.

    Nevertheless, Dalton will probably continue to go unscathed because the Falcons can’t generate much of a pass rush either. Jonathan Babineaux can still put pressure on quarterbacks, but that’s about it. Atlanta’s run defense also stinks, so Giovani Bernard figures to have a pretty big outing.

    The one chance the Falcons have of stopping Cincinnati from scoring is clamping down in the red zone. The Bengals were absolutely brutal inside Baltimore’s 20-yard line last week, and something like that tends to linger. Atlanta’s only hope is bending, but not breaking; forcing threes instead of sevens will be crucial.

    RECAP: I like the Falcons enough to wager a couple of units on them. I’d feel better about this side if the public wasn’t betting on Atlanta as well, but I think 5.5 points is too much; I have Cincinnati at -3.5.

    There’s a dynamic here that favors Atlanta. Teams coming off victories in which they kicked too many field goals seldom cover. It’s because they get overconfident from the win without addressing the glaring red-zone ineptitude issue. If the Bengals continue to struggle in the red zone, they probably won’t put enough on the scoreboard to cover.

    FINAL THOUGHTS: There’s some – not a lot – of wise-guy money on the Bengals. Vontaze Burfict playing hurts the Falcons, but I still like the underdog a bit.

    SUNDAY ADJUSTMENTS: No change here. The money has equalized.


    The Psychology. Edge: None.
    No edge found.


    The Vegas. Edge: None.
    Equal action.
  • Percentage of money on Atlanta: 57% (26,000 bets)


    The Trends. Edge: Falcons.
  • Bengals are 8-1 ATS at home since 2013.
  • Bengals are 18-33 ATS as a favorite since 2007.
  • Bengals are 10-17 ATS as a favorite of 3.5 or more since 2007.
  • Marvin Lewis is 5-9 ATS as a favorite coming off a SU win as an underdog.
  • Opening Line: Bengals -4.5.
  • Opening Total: 48.
  • Weather: .


    Week 2 NFL Pick: Bengals 27, Falcons 26
    Falcons +5.5 (2 Units) — Incorrect; -$220
    Over 49 (0 Units) — Incorrect; $0
    Bengals 24, Falcons 10



    Week 2 NFL Picks – Late Games
    Seattle�at�San Diego, St. Louis�at�Tampa Bay, Kansas City�at�Denver, NY Jets�at�Green Bay, Houston�at�Oakland, Chicago�at�San Francisco, Philadelphia�at�Indianapolis




    Prop/Teaser/Parlay Picks
    A list of some of my favorite team/player prop picks this week
    (Offense & defensive ROY picks to be counted whenver winners are announced.) Picks carried over on a week-to-week basis will be in black.


  • Prop/teaser/parlay picks posted in Week 2 NFL Picks – Late Games



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    2012 Season 4-5 Unit NFL Picks: 14-21, 40.0% (-$3,650)
    2013 Season 4-5 Unit NFL Picks: 17-9-3, 65.4% (+$2,970)
    2015 Season 4-5 Unit NFL Picks: 17-16-2, 51.5% (-$1,120)
    2016 Season 4-5 Unit NFL Picks: 21-22-5, 48.8% (-$1,465)
    2017 Season 4-5 Unit NFL Picks: 20-22-1, 47.6% (-$1,595)
    2018 Season 4-5 Unit NFL Picks: 27-32-1, 45.8% (-$4,735)
    2019 Season 4-5 Unit NFL Picks: 37-27-2, 57.8% (+$2,185)
    2020 Season 4-5 Unit NFL Picks: 37-22-1, 62.7% (+$5,515)
    2021 Season 4-5 Unit NFL Picks: 32-32-1, 50.0% (-$725)
    2022 Season 4-5 Unit NFL Picks: 41-30-1, 57.8% (+$3,725)

    2001 Season Over-Under: 3-2 (60.0%)
    2002 Season Over-Under: 121-91-3 (57.1%)
    2003 Season Over-Under: 126-132-2 (48.8%)
    2004 Season Over-Under: 139-124-4 (52.9%)
    2005 Season Over-Under: 117-145-4 (44.7%)
    2006 Season Over-Under: 129-132-5 (49.4%)
    2007 Season Over-Under: 136-145-3, 48.4% (-$1,900)
    2008 Season Over-Under: 137-125-6, 52.3% (+$860)
    2009 Season Over-Under: 128-135-4, 48.7% (-$3,195)
    2010 Season Over-Under: 128-135-5, 48.7% (-$5)
    2011 Season Over-Under: 131-131-5, 50.0% (+$135)
    2012 Season Over-Under: 125-121-5, 50.8% (+$30)
    2013 Season Over-Under: 132-130-5, 50.4% (-$340)
    2015 Season Over-Under: 143-119-5, 54.6% ($0)
    2016 Season Over-Under: 123-141-1, 46.6% (+$95)
    2017 Season Over-Under: 136-139-2, 49.5% (+$640)
    2018 Season Over-Under: 118-128-3, 48.0% (-$225)
    2019 Season Over-Under: 126-133-4, 48.6% (-$50)
    2020 Season Over-Under: 141-122-6, 53.6% ($0)
    2021 Season Over-Under: 132-151-3, 46.6% ($0)
    2022 Season Over-Under: 133-149-2, 47.2% (-$225)

    2007 Season Prop/ML/Teaser/Parlay Picks: +$1,035
    2008 Season Prop/ML/Teaser/Parlay Picks: +$1,775
    2009 Season Prop/ML/Teaser/Parlay Picks: +$865
    2010 Season Prop/ML/Teaser/Parlay Picks: -$200
    2011 Season Prop/ML/Teaser/Parlay Picks: +$590
    2012 Season Prop/ML/Teaser/Parlay Picks: -$1,685
    2013 Season Prop/ML/Teaser/Parlay Picks: +$2,245
    2015 Season Prop/ML/Teaser/Parlay Picks: -$855
    2016 Season Prop/ML/Teaser/Parlay Picks: -$275
    2017 Season Prop/ML/Teaser/Parlay Picks: -$510
    2018 Season Prop/ML/Teaser/Parlay Picks: +$1,495
    2019 Season Prop/ML/Teaser/Parlay Picks: -$1,715
    2020 Season Prop/ML/Teaser/Parlay Picks: +$4,975
    2021 Season Prop/ML/Teaser/Parlay Picks: +$3,455
    2022 Season Prop/ML/Teaser/Parlay Picks: +$5,720

    2006 NFL Picks of the Month: 3-3 (50%)
    2007 NFL Picks of the Month: 3-3, 50.0% (-$400)
    2008 NFL Picks of the Month: 6-1, 85.7% (+$3,720)
    2009 NFL Picks of the Month: 3-2, 60.0% (+$640)
    2010 NFL Picks of the Month: 2-4, 33.3% (-$1,810)
    2011 NFL Picks of the Month: 5-2, 71.4% (+$1,870)
    2012 NFL Picks of the Month: 3-2, 60.0% (+$560)
    2013 NFL Picks of the Month: 6-0, 100% (+$3,900)
    2014 NFL Picks of the Month: 2-4, 33.3% (-$1,350)
    2015 NFL Picks of the Month: 3-3, 50.0% (-$100)
    2016 NFL Picks of the Month: 5-1, 83.3% (+$2,780)
    2017 NFL Picks of the Month: 4-2, 66.7% (+$1,040)
    2018 NFL Picks of the Month: 4-3, 57.1% (-$640)
    2019 NFL Picks of the Month: 3-3-1, 50.0% (-$625)
    2020 NFL Picks of the Month: 3-2, 60.0% (+$665)
    2021 NFL Picks of the Month: 2-3, 40.0% (-$920)
    2022 NFL Picks of the Month: 3-4, 42.9% (-$1,615)

    Career NFL Picks Against The Spread: 3,420-3,152-195, 52.1% (+$21,170)
    Career 2-3 Unit NFL Picks: 1,106-983-56 (52.9%)
    Career 4-5 Unit NFL Picks: 549-485-25 (53.1%)
    Career Over-Under: 2,853-2,829-74 (50.3%)
    Career Second-Half NFL Picks: 23-16-1 (59.0%)
    Career NFL Picks of the Month: 46-34-1 (57.5t%)



    My Team-by-Team ATS Record
    This section shows how well I do when picking each team this year. The purpose is to see how well I read each team. Pushes are not displayed. Winning/losing streak in parentheses.

    Cowboys: 8-9
    Bears: 11-4
    Bucs: 6-11
    49ers: 10-7
    Eagles: 7-7
    Lions: 9-8
    Falcons: 8-9
    Cardinals: 8-9
    Giants: 7-9
    Packers: 5-12
    Panthers: 8-9
    Rams: 8-9
    Redskins: 14-3
    Vikings: 6-9
    Saints: 10-7
    Seahawks: 7-9
    Bills: 9-7
    Bengals: 12-5
    Colts: 7-10
    Broncos: 9-6
    Dolphins: 6-11
    Browns: 11-5
    Jaguars: 13-4
    Chargers: 8-9
    Jets: 8-9
    Ravens: 11-6
    Texans: 5-12
    Chiefs: 5-10
    Patriots: 7-9
    Steelers: 11-6
    Titans: 9-8
    Raiders: 6-9
    Divisional: 50-35 (2011-22: 558-526)
    2x Game Edge: 36-24 (2011-22: 363-361)
    2x Motivation Edge: 32-36 (2011-22: 478-405)
    2x Spread Edge: 41-40 (2011-22: 197-168)
    2x Vegas Edge: 41-38 (2011-22: 407-406)
    2x Trend Edge: 15-13 (2011-22: 306-279)
    Double Edge: 17-13 (2011-22: 190-172)
    Triple Edge: 1-1 (2011-22: 32-36)

    2003 Preseason: 3 | 4 | 5
    2003 Season: 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 | 16 | 17 | 18 | 20 | XXXVIII
    2004 Preseason: 1 | 2 | 3 | 4
    2004 Season: 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 | 16 | 17 | 18 | 19 | 20 | XXXIX
    2005 Preseason: 1 | 2 | 3 | 4
    2005 Season: 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 | 16 | 17 | 18 | 19 | 20 | XL
    2006 Preseason: 1 | 2 | 3 | 4
    2006 Season: 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 | 16 | 17 | 18 | 19 | 20 | XLI
    2007 Preseason: 1 | 2 | 3 | 4
    2007 Season: 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 | 16 | 17 | 18 | 19 | 20 | XLII |
    2008 Preseason: 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 |
    2008 Season: 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 | 16 | 17 | 18 | 19 | 20 | XLIII |
    2009 Season: 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 | 16 | 17 | 18 | 19 | 20 | XLIV |
    2010 Preseason: 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 |
    2010 Season: 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 | 16 | 17 | 18 | 19 | 20 | XLV |
    2011 Preseason: 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 |
    2011 Season: 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 | 16 | 17 | 18 | 19 | 20 | XLVI |
    2012 Preseason: 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 |
    2012 Season:
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    2013 Preseason: 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 |
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    2014 Preseason: 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 |
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    2015 Preseason: 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 |
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    2016 Preseason: 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 |
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    2017 Preseason: 1 | 2 | 3 | 4
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    2018 Preseason: 1 | 2 | 3 | 4
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    2019 Preseason: 1 | 2 | 3 | 4
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    2020 Season:
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    Super Bowl LV Pick

    2021 Season:
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    2022 Season:
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    2023 Season:
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