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Vegas betting action updated Jan. 12, 10:35 a.m. ET. Follow @walterfootball
Go to Week 19 NFL Picks - Sunday Games
New Orleans Saints (12-5) at Seattle Seahawks (13-3)
Line: Seahawks by 9.5. Total: 43.5.
Walt's Projected Line:
Saturday, Jan. 11, 4:30 ET
Discuss Playoff Games, Talk Trash
The Game. Edge: Seahawks.
WEEK 18 RECAP:
I can't complain about a 3-0-1 record, and I'll obviously take that every week, but damn you Micah Hyde for dropping that potential game-winning interception. Ugh.
This week, there's one spread that really stands out: The 49ers are road favorites at Carolina. I love betting home underdogs, but there's one issue here, which is that Cam Newton is making his first playoff start. This is great bet-against scenario.
Take a look at this list of quarterbacks making their first postseason start. I've excluded matchups in which it was the case for both quarterbacks:
Chad Pennington (-6), NYJ, 2002: Win ATS, Win SU
Marc Bulger (-7), STL, 2003: Loss ATS, Loss SU
Trent Green (-3.5), KC, 2003: Loss ATS, Loss SU
Drew Brees (-5.5), SD, 2004: Loss ATS, Loss SU
Ben Roethlisberger (-8.5), PIT, 2004: Loss ATS, Win SU
Chris Simms (-2.5), TB, 2005: Loss ATS, Loss SU
Eli Manning (-3), NYG, 2005: Loss ATS, Loss SU
Rex Grossman (-3), CHI, 2005: Loss ATS, Loss SU
Philip Rivers (-4.5), SD, 2006: Loss ATS, Loss SU
Jay Cutler (-10), CHI, 2010: Win ATS, Win SU
Matt Schaub (-4.5), HOU, 2012: Win ATS, Win SU
Colin Kaepernick (-3), SF, 2012: Win ATS, Win SU
Nick Foles (-3), PHI, 2013: Loss ATS, Loss SU
Anthony Wright (+1), BAL, 2003: Loss ATS, Loss SU
Carson Palmer/Jon Kitna (+3), CIN, 2005: Loss ATS, Loss SU
Tarvaris Jackson (+3), MIN, 2008: Loss ATS, Loss SU
Matt Cassel (+3), KC, 2010: Loss ATS, Loss SU
Tim Tebow (+8.5), DEN, 2011: Win ATS, Win SU
Alex Smith (+3.5), SF, 2011: Win ATS, Win SU
Cam Newton (+2), CAR, 2013: ??? ATS, ??? SU
David Garrard (-2), JAX, 2007: Push ATS, Win SU
Matt Ryan (-1), ATL, 2008: Loss ATS, Loss SU
Joe Flacco (-3.5), BAL, 2008: Win ATS, Win SU
Aaron Rodgers (-1), GB, 2009: Loss ATS, Loss SU
QB Falcons No. 7 (+6.5), ATL, 2002: Win ATS, Win SU
Matt Hasselbeck (+7), SEA, 2003: Win ATS, Loss SU
Byron Leftwich (+8), JAX, 2005: Loss ATS, Loss SU
Tony Romo (+2), DAL, 2006: Win ATS, Loss SU
Todd Collins (+4), WAS, 2007: Loss ATS, Loss SU
Vince Young (+10), TEN, 2007: Loss ATS, Loss SU
Mark Sanchez (+2.5), NYJ, 2009: Win ATS, Win SU
Matthew Stafford (+10.5), DET, 2011: Loss ATS Loss SU
Joe Webb (+10), MIN, 2012: Loss ATS, Loss SU
Andrew Luck (+7), IND, 2012: Loss ATS, Loss SU
To sum it up:
Home favorites: 4-9 ATS, 5-8 SU
Home underdogs: 2-4 ATS, 2-4 SU
Road favorites: 1-2-1 ATS, 2-2 SU
Road underdogs: 4-6 ATS, 2-8 SU
Combined Record: 11-21-1 ATS, 11-22 SU
Ouch. Newton might be a special case though. Look at all of those home-underdog quarterbacks: Anthony Wright, Carson Palmer/Jon Kitna, Tarvaris Jackson, Matt Cassel, Tim Tebow and Alex Smith. The latter two are the best of the bunch - ignoring Palmer because he suffered an injury in the first quarter - and they managed to win. It's safe to say Newton is far better than the losers: Wright, Kitna, Jackson and Cassel.
Last week, three of the four games were rematches. That's once again the case this weekend, so let's review what I posted. Here's how well teams fare after defeating a non-divisional opponent during the regular season:
Straight up (since 2001): 38-30
Against the spread (since 2001): 25-41
Does the site affect this dynamic? All three of those matchups are taking place at the other stadium:
Same site: 13-26 ATS
Different site: 12-15 ATS
I said it was interesting that the previously victorious team only had trouble covering if the game was being played at the same location. There were exceptions though:
Underdogs beating non-divisional opponent -> Favorites in the playoffs (different site): 5-3 ATS
Favorites beating non-divisional opponent -> Underdogs in the playoffs (different site): 2-3 ATS
How about constant underdog and favorites?
Underdogs beating non-divisional opponent -> Underdogs in the playoffs (different site): 2-0 ATS
Favorites beating non-divisional opponent -> Favorites in the playoffs (different site): 2-9 ATS
Also, if the winner of the first matchup triumphed by 10 or more points, they are 9-17 ATS in the rematch, regardless of site.
So, what does all of this mean? The Seahawks fall under the 13-26 ATS same-site trend, and the 9-17 ATS double-digit win rematch also applies. The Panthers are safe because they're different-site underdogs-underdogs. The Broncos and Chargers are in the same division, so none of this affects them.
My Las Vegas Hilton Supercontest partner Matvei and I also talked about some situations that almost always win:
Seahawks at home
Saints at home
Packers at home (needs Aaron Rodgers)
Jim Harbaugh anywhere (unless he's playing another top team, i.e. Colts or Seahawks)
Tom Brady off a loss as long as he's not favored by a lot
Those situations have gone 15-4 against the spread since Week 8, with the Packers and Harbaugh nullifying each other in the wild-card round. This week, we get to bet the Seahawks at home.
Week 19 NFL Picks will be posted all day Wednesday. Follow me @walterfootball
Vegas was killed for the second weekend in a row. Three things happened: First, everyone who bet down the Chiefs at +2.5 and everyone who took the Colts when they were +1.5 all won. The books get crushed when a bet is middled, so I don't know why they moved the spread like that in the first place. Second, the only heavily bet team covered. The 49ers were -2.5 at certain points during the week, and that wager cashed. Third, every possible teaser with the exception of Bengals -1 came through.
The house is now reeling after two horrible weekends, so perhaps they'll pay off some officials. Clete Blakeman already walked away with a wad of cash for fixing the Carolina-New England Monday night game. Who will be the next lucky ref?
I'll be updating the Vegas betting action all week, as usual. I'll notify you of any updates @walterfootball
NEW ORLEANS OFFENSE:
Everyone knows the deal with the Saints by now. They're dominant at home, yet they're not as good on the road. They prevailed in Philadelphia, proving to everyone they can win in the cold, but the fact remains that they're so much better in the Superdome, as evidenced by Drew Brees' home-road splits that I posted last week:
Brees may have won in Philadelphia, but he wasn't all that good. His numbers were mediocre - 20-of-30 for 250 yards, one touchdown, two interceptions - and they accurately depict how Brees performed Saturday night. In addition to the picks, he also missed some open receivers on throws he definitely would've made had he been playing at home.
The disconcerting issue for New Orleans fans is that Brees struggled a bit against Philadelphia's putrid secondary. It makes me wonder how he's going to thrive against the Seahawks, who are much better versus aerial attacks. Brees had his worst game of the season on a Monday night in Seattle back in Week 13, going 23-of-38 for only 147 yards, one touchdown and a lost fumble. That gave him a YPA of 3.9, a number that even the likes of Brodie Croyle and Brandon Weeden would scoff at.
Brees' issue in that blowout loss was all of the pressure he faced. The Seahawks swarmed the backfield, as it seemed like Brees was getting hit every single time he released the football. Not much has changed since Dec. 2, so expect Seattle to be all over Brees again. The Seahawks' domination also included stopping New Orleans' ground attack, as the Saint runners were limited to just 45 rushing yards on 16 carries.
While Brees struggled in the previous matchup, Russell Wilson arguably had his best outing of the season. Wilson let the ball hit the ground on just eight occasions, finishing 22-of-30 for 310 yards and three touchdowns to go along with his team-leading 47 rushing yards on eight scrambles. Wilson attempted just 11 passes after intermission because of the massive lead, so his numbers could've been even better.
The X-factor for the Seahawks is that Percy Harvin may return to the lineup. There was earlier speculation that Harvin wouldn't be able to play at all for the rest of the season, but he has reportedly looked terrific in practice. This is obviously horrible news for the Saints, although top cornerback Keenan Lewis, who suffered a concussion Saturday night, should be available for this contest.
The Saints will obviously have to pressure Wilson to disrupt Seattle's scoring attack. They tied for the third-most sacks in the NFL during the regular season, but often had trouble getting to Nick Foles on Saturday night. They had similar pass-rushing issues versus the Seahawks back in Week 13, as Wilson took just one sack.
Stopping Marshawn Lynch will also be a priority for New Orleans, but the team had success in this area the last time these squads met. Lynch managed just 45 yards on 16 carries - yes, he equaled the Saints' rushing total - and he could be limited again because LeSean McCoy was just held in check.
I went big on the Seahawks back in Week 13, but this play won't be as large. I don't like that the Saints are in one of these revenge games. Plus, you can never go wrong betting an elite quarterback like Brees as an underdog.
However, the Seahawks are the play. They're just so dominant at home, and I don't think New Orleans knows how to deal with the noise. Plus, I think the sharps might be involved on Seattle. I don't know for sure yet, but this spread opened -7.5 at an offshore book and quickly went to -8 despite public money on the Saints. Everyone seems to be talking up New Orleans now. "They proved they can win outdoors!" Well, there's a huge difference between playing in Philadelphia and Seattle.
Again, Week 19 NFL Picks will be posted all day. I'll announce via Twitter @walterfootball
when each selection is posted.
Chad Millman said that the sharps are on the Seahawks, as indicated by this line movement despite action on the Saints. However, there are four reasons I'm moving this to zero units:
1. There's no more line value. The Seahawks should be favored by -7, maybe -8, but a 9.5-point spread is too much.
2. There's heavy rain and wind in Seattle. This may seem like it favors the Seahawks, but remember that New Orleans shut down Marshawn Lynch in the first meeting. This figures to be a low-scoring game, which favors the underdog.
3. Everyone on TV is saying stuff like "How can the Saints possibly win in Seattle with this weather!?" All but one ESPN analyst picked Seattle. No one is giving New Orleans a chance. This is the "no one believes in us" game of the week.
4. A fellow handicapper sent me this insane trend: Playoff teams with 12-plus victories are 38-9 against the spread if they have a worse record than their opponent. This went 3-0-1 last year with the following teams covering: Seahawks (at Falcons), Ravens (at Patriots) and Ravens again (vs. 49ers). The 49ers pushed at Atlanta. This trend applies to the Saints, Colts and Panthers this week.
The Psychology. Edge: None.
No edge found.
The Vegas. Edge: Seahawks.
A decent amount of money on the Saints.
Percentage of money on New Orleans: 68% (77,000 bets)
The Trends. Edge: Seahawks.
Road Warriors: Playoff teams coming off a road win in Round 1 are 10-3 ATS in Round 2 since 2005.
Worst Bye: Playoff teams coming off byes are 16-24 ATS since 2003.
Drew Brees is 35-26 ATS as an underdog.
Drew Brees is 36-24 ATS off back-to-back wins.
Seahawks are 24-9 ATS as home favorites since 2007.
Opening Line: Seahawks -7.5.
Opening Total: 48.
Weather: Thunderstorms, 47 degrees. HEAVY WINDS, 30 mph.
Week 19 NFL Pick: Seahawks 28, Saints 17
Seahawks -9.5 (0 Units) -- Incorrect; $0
OVer 43.5 (0 Units) -- Incorrect; $0
Seahawks 23, Saints 15
Indianapolis Colts (12-5) at New England Patriots (12-4)
Line: Patriots by 7. Total: 52.
Walt's Projected Line: Patriots -8.
Saturday, Jan. 11, 8:00 ET
Discuss Playoff Games, Talk Trash
The Game. Edge: Patriots.
HATE MAIL: I didn't receive any hate mail for my picks, but that doesn't mean that I didn't get any grief for some of my other features. This includes an actual piece of e-mail:
Here were some for my updated 2015 NFL Mock Draft:
The fact that you have the Jets as the first pick discredits this whole mock. There is not a chance the Jets will be the worst team in the league next year. Im not sure if this is blatant hate and bias towards the jets, or just extreme ignorance on your part.
So, the Texans can go from a divisional winner to have the No. 1 pick, but the Jets with all of their offensive firepower can't? Yeah, soundslike blatant hatred and/or extreme ignorance.
Having the Jets pick 1st is just so damn dumb. They have 30 million in cap space and 12 draft picks, they're going to get better next year. You hate on the Jets every single year.
I was actually one of the few people who didn't have the Jets as the worst team in the league heading into the season, and I also picked them over the Saints and Patriots this past year. I guess that constitutes as hating.
Jets with the first overall pick? Highly unlikely. They were a .500 team with a rookie QB and no WR's or healthy TEs. Why would they regress that far in a weak division? Skill positions are the easiest to address in free agency and the draft, and that is what they are lacking. And need I remind you that you had the Chiefs taking Geno Smith first overall at this time last year?
BURN! Except it's not a burn because everyone had Geno Smith in the top five at this point last year.
I love how so many people are defending the Jets, yet I declared at the top of the page that the order of my 2015 mock is random. I guess these people have zero reading comprehension.
Here's some feedback from the 2014 NFL Free Agent Rankings page:
Seneca "The Backdoor Bandit" Wallace... Where the hell did that come from? Is that supposed to be... funny?
Why would it be... funny? Wallace has been known for lots of backdoor covers over the year, and I dubbed him the Backdoor Bandit years ago.
Honestly, I hate the "QB Dog Killer" Crap that you stubbornly insist on putting here even more than I ever hated Mike Vick. It was never that funny, and now its just gotten annoying to the point where it's driving me away from this site. And if that means I support what he did, then I could say you support Ben Roethlisberger because you don't constantly call him "QB Girl raper".
Sorry to hear that you support the drowning of dogs. Just kidding, it's OK if you have sand in the vag. And let's see... QBDK convicted, Roethlisberger not convicted... I guess our legal system means nothing. Oh well
Numb nuts. You probably didn't watch Pettigrew the last 13 games of the season. He was near flawless. You're just going off old stereotypes.
This person has clearly lost his mind because he didn't watch Brandon Pettigrew either. He really didn't because Pettigrew was out of the lineup in the final few weeks. Perhaps they show old Oklahoma State college games in this guy's mental ward.
INDIANAPOLIS OFFENSE: I wrote about this in my game recaps, but Andrew Luck was everything Peyton Manning wasn't, at least in the beginning of his career. The Colts would've found some way to lose with Manning back in the early parts of the previous decade, but Luck was unbelievably clutch and somehow willed his team to victory despite being down 38-10 at one point in the third quarter.
Luck, however, can't count on numerous defenders suffering injuries again in this game, though the Patriots aren't exactly healthy right now. Vince Wilfork, Jerod Mayo and Tommy Kelly have all been out for quite some time, but now Brandon Spikes has joined them, as he was placed on injured reserve with a season-ending knee injury. Spikes struggles in coverage, but he's a stout run defender. With Spikes and Wilfork both out, Donald Brown should be able to run all over the Patriots. Brown has played well in recent weeks, unlike Trent Richardson, who fumbled on his only carry last week.
Establishing Brown will be huge because the Patriots can still put a ton of heat on the quarterback. Only five teams accumulated more sacks than New England during the regular season, and we all know how porous Indianapolis' offensive line can be. Luck doesn't take many sacks because he's mobile and has a quick release, but he often can't find the receivers he wants to downfield because of the pressure.
Speaking of Luck's wideouts, T.Y. Hilton had a monstrous outing this past week, but the Chiefs have had issues in their secondary all year. The Patriots don't have such a liability. They actually have a strong secondary, which has gotten better lately with the emergence of Logan Ryan, who has played extremely well down the stretch.
NEW ENGLAND OFFENSE: Much was made of the loss Rob Gronkowski, especially after the Patriots lost to the Dolphins, but the offense compiled more than 400 yards of offense in that defeat. They then proceeded to demolish the Ravens. However, Tom Brady struggled a bit in the following contest, failing to generate anything through the air. Sure, there was a downpour in that season finale, but his counterpart, Thaddeus Lewis, actually had a more impressive showing.
Luckily for Brady, he gets to battle a defense with some anemic cornerback play. Vontae Davis is a stud when healthy, but he's banged up and clearly not performing like himself. Greg Toler is out. The Colts consequently are using a player in Darius Butler that the Patriots released prior to the start of the season. If Alex Smith could torch this abomination of a secondary, why can't Brady?
Making things worse for the Colts, they can't stop the run at all. Even though Jamaal Charles was lost during the early stages of Saturday's victory, the Chiefs still managed to compile 90 rushing yards on 23 carries. LeGarrette Blount has been a beast for New England, inexplicably averaging more than five yards per carry, so he's set up to have yet another huge outing.
Stopping the run will obviously be huge for Indianapolis because it won't be able to do anything if Brady is moving the chains on second downs or third-and-short opportunities. The Colts could force some punts though if Brady is trapped in long-yardage situations, as they've accumulated a solid 13 sacks in their previous four games.
RECAP: There are conflicting things here. Did you know that the Patriots are just 2-10 against the spread in their previous 12 playoff games? Their only victories against the spread have come against Matt Schaub and Tim Tebow. I think Luck is just a tad better than those two quarterbacks.
Having said that, I still think New England will cover. The Colts have been blown out in several games this season, most notably at Arizona and Cincinnati. They aren't as good outside of their dome. Also, teams that score 40-plus points in the playoffs are automatic fades; they're a whopping 3-21 against the spread in such situations dating back to 1996.
FINAL THOUGHTS: I'm staying with one unit on the Patriots despite the trend I referenced in the Saints-Seahawks final thoughts. This is everyone's trendy upset pick, so that probably means it'll be a blowout. Besides, the forecasted heavy wind will favor the Patriots because they run the ball very well. Andrew Luck won't be able to air it out to T.Y. Hilton.
The Psychology. Edge: None.
No edge found.
The Vegas. Edge: Patriots.
Percentage of money on Indianapolis: 60% (76,000 bets)
The Trends. Edge: None.
Worst Bye: Playoff teams coming off byes are 16-24 ATS since 2003.
Patriots are 28-14 ATS in December & January home games since 2000.
Tom Brady is 159-53 as a starter (121-86 ATS).
Tom Brady is 17-7 in the playoffs (10-14 ATS).
Opening Line: Patriots -7.5.
Opening Total: 53.
Weather: Thunderstorms, 53 degrees. HEAVY WINDS, 22 mph.
Week 19 NFL Pick: Patriots 24, Colts 14
Patriots -7 (1 Unit) -- Correct; +$100
Under 52 (0 Units) -- Incorrect; $0
Patriots 43, Colts 22
Week 19 NFL Picks - Sunday Games
49ers at Panthers, Chargers at Broncos
A list of some of my favorite team/player prop picks this week
(Offense & defensive ROY picks to be counted
whenver winners are announced.) Picks carried over on a week-to-week basis will be in black.
Prop/teaser/parlay picks posted in Week 19 NFL Picks - Sunday Games
NFL Picks - Jan. 17
2021 NFL Mock Draft - Jan. 13
Fantasy Football Rankings - Jan. 11
2022 NFL Mock Draft - Nov. 15
NFL Power Rankings - Nov. 14
2020 College Football Recruiting Rankings - April 14
2020 NBA Mock Draft - Sept. 27
Note: For legality purposes, this Web site does not promote or advocate gambling. This is solely for entertainment purposes only.
Last Week's NFL Picks Against The Spread (Week 18, 2020): 1-5 (-$1,430)
Last Week's 2-3 Unit NFL Picks (Week 18, 2020): 0-2 (-$575)
Last Week's 4-5 Unit NFL Picks (Week 18, 2020): 0-2 (-$855)
Last Week Over-Under (Week 18, 2020): 2-3-1 ($0)
Last Week's Prop/ML/Teaser/Parlay Picks (Week 18, 2020): $0
2020 NFL Picks of the Month: 2-2, 50.0% (-$135)
2020 Season NFL Picks Against The Spread: 132-123-6, 52.6% (+$3,280)
2020 Season 2-3 Unit NFL Picks: 43-42-3, 50.6% (-$2,650)
2020 Season 4-5 Unit NFL Picks: 37-22-1, 62.7% (+$5,515)
2020 Season Over-Under: 137-119-6, 53.5% ($0)
2020 Season Prop/ML/Teaser/Parlay Picks: +$375
1999 Season NFL Picks Against The Spread: 27-41-3 (39.7%)
2000 Season NFL Picks Against The Spread: 128-123-8 (51.0%)
2001 Season NFL Picks Against The Spread: 127-122-7 (51.0%)
2002 Season NFL Picks Against The Spread: 123-136-7 (47.5%)
2003 Season NFL Picks Against The Spread: 146-126-8 (53.7%)
2004 Season NFL Picks Against The Spread: 157-123-8 (56.1%)
2005 Season NFL Picks Against The Spread: 156-126-11 (55.3%)
2006 Season NFL Picks Against The Spread: 151-135-9 (52.8%)
2007 Season NFL Picks Against The Spread: 162-135-10, 54.5% (+$3,585)
2008 Season NFL Picks Against The Spread: 148-140-7, 51.4% (+$6,105)
2009 Season NFL Picks Against The Spread: 151-124-9, 54.9% (+$4,235)
2010 Season NFL Picks Against The Spread: 144-131-8, 52.4% (+$5,880)
2011 Season NFL Picks Against The Spread: 137-133-12, 50.7% (-$1,335)
2012 Season NFL Picks Against The Spread: 130-145-8, 47.3% (-$7,445)
2013 Season NFL Picks Against The Spread: 144-131-8, 52.4% (+$7,825)
2014 Season NFL Picks Against The Spread: 143-133-7, 51.8% (-$1,885)
2015 Season NFL Picks Against The Spread: 134-138-12, 49.3% (-$3,215)
2016 Season NFL Picks Against The Spread: 148-127-10, 53.8% (+$780)
2017 Season NFL Picks Against The Spread: 137-140-8, 49.5% (-$4,300)
2018 Season NFL Picks Against The Spread: 140-134-14, 51.3% (+$845)
2019 Season NFL Picks Against The Spread: 149-128-9, 53.6% (+$1,200)
2002 Season 2-3 Unit NFL Picks: 41-49-2 (45.6%)
2003 Season 2-3 Unit NFL Picks: 52-51-2 (50.5%)
2004 Season 2-3 Unit NFL Picks: 65-44-3 (59.6%)
2005 Season 2-3 Unit NFL Picks: 77-61-1 (55.8%)
2006 Season 2-3 Unit NFL Picks: 65-61-4 (51.6%)
2007 Season 2-3 Unit NFL Picks: 83-59-5, 58.5% (+$4,110)
2008 Season 2-3 Unit NFL Picks: 44-57-3, 43.6% (-$3,510)
2009 Season 2-3 Unit NFL Picks: 49-35-3, 58.3% (+$2,260)
2010 Season 2-3 Unit NFL Picks: 51-38-4, 57.3% (+$3,180)
2011 Season 2-3 Unit NFL Picks: 44-51-3, 46.3% (-$2,715)
2012 Season 2-3 Unit NFL Picks: 45-50-2, 47.4% (-$2,130)
2013 Season 2-3 Unit NFL Picks: 38-42, 47.5% (-$2,890)
2015 Season 2-3 Unit NFL Picks: 47-44-1, 51.6% (-$820)
2016 Season 2-3 Unit NFL Picks: 42-35-3, 54.5% (+$475)
2017 Season 2-3 Unit NFL Picks: 32-40-3, 43.8% (-$2,395)
2018 Season 2-3 Unit NFL Picks: 52-41-2, 55.9% (+$2,670)
2019 Season 2-3 Unit NFL Picks: 44-36-2, 55.0% (+$655)
2002 Season 4-5 Unit NFL Picks: 11-12 (47.8%)
2003 Season 4-5 Unit NFL Picks: 16-13-1 (55.2%)
2004 Season 4-5 Unit NFL Picks: 18-11 (62.1%)
2005 Season 4-5 Unit NFL Picks: 25-22-1 (53.2%)
2006 Season 4-5 Unit NFL Picks: 21-29-1 (42.0%)
2007 Season 4-5 Unit NFL Picks: 35-30-2, 53.8% (+$420)
2008 Season 4-5 Unit NFL Picks: 39-26-2, 60.0% (+$4,055)
2009 Season 4-5 Unit NFL Picks: 29-26, 52.7% (+$330)
2010 Season 4-5 Unit NFL Picks: 32-22, 59.3% (+$4,790)
2011 Season 4-5 Unit NFL Picks: 14-14, 50.0% (-$1,260)
2012 Season 4-5 Unit NFL Picks: 14-21, 40.0% (-$3,650)
2013 Season 4-5 Unit NFL Picks: 17-9-3, 65.4% (+$2,970)
2015 Season 4-5 Unit NFL Picks: 17-16-2, 51.5% (-$1,120)
2016 Season 4-5 Unit NFL Picks: 21-22-5, 48.8% (-$1,465)
2017 Season 4-5 Unit NFL Picks: 20-22-1, 47.6% (-$1,595)
2018 Season 4-5 Unit NFL Picks: 27-32-1, 45.8% (-$4,735)
2019 Season 4-5 Unit NFL Picks: 37-27-2, 57.8% (+$2,185)
2001 Season Over-Under: 3-2 (60.0%)
2002 Season Over-Under: 121-91-3 (57.1%)
2003 Season Over-Under: 126-132-2 (48.8%)
2004 Season Over-Under: 139-124-4 (52.9%)
2005 Season Over-Under: 117-145-4 (44.7%)
2006 Season Over-Under: 129-132-5 (49.4%)
2007 Season Over-Under: 136-145-3, 48.4% (-$1,900)
2008 Season Over-Under: 137-125-6, 52.3% (+$860)
2009 Season Over-Under: 128-135-4, 48.7% (-$3,195)
2010 Season Over-Under: 128-135-5, 48.7% (-$5)
2011 Season Over-Under: 131-131-5, 50.0% (+$135)
2012 Season Over-Under: 125-121-5, 50.8% (+$30)
2013 Season Over-Under: 132-130-5, 50.4% (-$340)
2015 Season Over-Under: 143-119-5, 54.6% ($0)
2016 Season Over-Under: 123-141-1, 46.6% (+$95)
2017 Season Over-Under: 136-139-2, 49.5% (+$640)
2018 Season Over-Under: 118-128-3, 48.0% (-$225)
2019 Season Over-Under: 126-133-4, 48.6% (-$50)
2007 Season Prop/ML/Teaser/Parlay Picks: +$1,035
2008 Season Prop/ML/Teaser/Parlay Picks: +$1,775
2009 Season Prop/ML/Teaser/Parlay Picks: +$865
2010 Season Prop/ML/Teaser/Parlay Picks: -$200
2011 Season Prop/ML/Teaser/Parlay Picks: +$590
2012 Season Prop/ML/Teaser/Parlay Picks: -$1,685
2013 Season Prop/ML/Teaser/Parlay Picks: +$2,245
2015 Season Prop/ML/Teaser/Parlay Picks: -$855
2016 Season Prop/ML/Teaser/Parlay Picks: -$275
2017 Season Prop/ML/Teaser/Parlay Picks: -$510
2018 Season Prop/ML/Teaser/Parlay Picks: +$1,495
2019 Season Prop/ML/Teaser/Parlay Picks: -$1,715
2006 NFL Picks of the Month: 3-3 (50%)
2007 NFL Picks of the Month: 3-3, 50.0% (-$400)
2008 NFL Picks of the Month: 6-1, 85.7% (+$3,720)
2009 NFL Picks of the Month: 3-2, 60.0% (+$640)
2010 NFL Picks of the Month: 2-4, 33.3% (-$1,810)
2011 NFL Picks of the Month: 5-2, 71.4% (+$1,870)
2012 NFL Picks of the Month: 3-2, 60.0% (+$560)
2013 NFL Picks of the Month: 6-0, 100% (+$3,900)
2014 NFL Picks of the Month: 2-4, 33.3% (-$1,350)
2015 NFL Picks of the Month: 3-3, 50.0% (-$100)
2016 NFL Picks of the Month: 5-1, 83.3% (+$2,780)
2017 NFL Picks of the Month: 4-2, 66.7% (+$1,040)
2018 NFL Picks of the Month: 4-3, 57.1% (-$640)
2019 NFL Picks of the Month: 3-3-1, 50.0% (-$625)
Career NFL Picks Against The Spread: 2,989-2,760-179, 52.0% (+$13,585)
Career 2-3 Unit NFL Picks: 953-858-49 (52.6%)
Career 4-5 Unit NFL Picks: 452-396-23 (53.3%)
Career Over-Under: 2,459-2,413-66 (50.5%)
Career Second-Half NFL Picks: 22-15-1 (61.1%)
Career NFL Picks of the Month: 44-29-1 (60.3%)
My Team-by-Team ATS Record
This section shows how well I do when picking each team this year. The purpose is to see how well I read each team. Pushes are not
displayed. Winning/losing streak in parentheses.
Cowboys: 11-5 (2014-19: 47-50)
Bears: 6-11 (2014-19: 45-48)
Bucs: 7-9 (2014-19: 44-45)
49ers: 8-8 (2014-19: 53-44)
Eagles: 8-8 (2014-19: 55-46)
Lions: 9-6 (2014-19: 53-42)
Falcons: 9-7 (2014-19: 55-45)
Cardinals: 10-6 (2014-19: 45-50)
Giants: 3-13 (2014-19: 52-41)
Packers: 12-4 (2014-19: 54-46)
Panthers: 13-3 (2014-19: 47-52)
Rams: 5-12 (2014-19: 53-41)
Redskins: 7-8 (2014-19: 47-48)
Vikings: 9-7 (2014-19: 51-45)
Saints: 7-10 (2014-19: 49-50)
Seahawks: 8-9 (2014-19: 43-56)
Bills: 10-7 (2014-19: 52-42)
Bengals: 9-5 (2014-19: 42-52)
Colts: 8-7 (2014-19: 50-45)
Broncos: 9-7 (2014-19: 45-48)
Dolphins: 12-4 (2014-19: 47-46)
Browns: 7-9 (2014-19: 46-44)
Jaguars: 4-11 (2014-19: 41-55)
Chargers: 8-6 (2014-19: 46-49)
Jets: 8-8 (2014-19: 50-40)
Ravens: 5-11 (2014-19: 48-47)
Texans: 10-5 (2014-19: 48-47)
Chiefs: 12-4 (2014-19: 56-50)
Patriots: 6-10 (2014-19: 55-53)
Steelers: 7-10 (2014-19: 56-43)
Titans: 10-7 (2014-19: 49-47)
Raiders: 7-9 (2014-19: 43-52)
Divisional: 43-47 (2011-19: 405-394)
2x Game Edge: 63-60 (2011-19: 213-210)
2x Motivation Edge: 45-30 (2011-19: 347-288)
2x Spread Edge: 42-33 (2011-19: 61-55)
2x Vegas Edge: 25-22 (2011-19: 320-335)
2x Trend Edge: 18-13 (2011-19: 250-228)
Double Edge: 27-21 (2011-19: 122-107)
Triple Edge: 5-4 (2011-19: 21-18)