NFL Picks Against the Spread: Week 19, 2013

NFL Picks (Preseason 2013): 10-6 (+$720)
NFL Picks (Week 1, 2013): 4-11-1 (-$1,290)
NFL Picks (Week 2, 2013): 6-10 (+$130)
NFL Picks (Week 3, 2013): 9-6-1 (+$20)
NFL Picks (Week 4, 2013): 11-4 (+$870)
NFL Picks (Week 5, 2013): 8-6 (+$1,060)
NFL Picks (Week 6, 2013): 4-11 (-$420)
NFL Picks (Week 7, 2013): 6-9 (-$730)
NFL Picks (Week 8, 2013): 8-5 (+$760)
NFL Picks (Week 9, 2013): 5-8 (-$280)
NFL Picks (Week 10, 2013): 9-4-1 (-$110)
NFL Picks (Week 11, 2013): 5-7-3 (-$480)
NFL Picks (Week 12, 2013): 9-5 (+$1,660)
NFL Picks (Week 13, 2013): 10-6 (+$850)
NFL Picks (Week 14, 2013): 7-9 (+$430)
NFL Picks (Week 15, 2013): 10-6 (-$190)
NFL Picks (Week 16, 2013): 6-9-1 (-$240)
NFL Picks (Week 17, 2013): 10-6 (+$1,470)
NFL Picks (Week 18, 2013): 3-0-1 (+$300)

NFL Picks (2013): 140-128-8 (+$4,530)
NFL Picks (2012): 130-145-8 (-$5,760)
NFL Picks (2011): 137-133-12 (-$1,925)
NFL Picks (2010): 144-131-8 (+$6,080)
NFL Picks (2009): 151-124-9 (+$3,370)
NFL Picks (2008): 136-125-6 (+$4,330)
If you don’t quite understand the line, total or anything else, go to my Sports Betting FAQ.

Vegas betting action updated Jan. 12, 10:35 a.m. ET. Follow @walterfootball for updates.

Go to Week 19 NFL Picks – Saturday Games

San Francisco 49ers (13-4) at Carolina Panthers (12-4)
Line: 49ers by 1. Total: 41.5.
Walt’s Calculated Line: Panthers -3.
Sunday, Jan. 12, 1:00 ET
Discuss Playoff Games, Talk Trash

The Game. Edge: 49ers.

I let you know a few weeks ago that the Mock Draft Builder would be here soon. Well, its official release date is Thursday, so check back for it then. Follow me @walterfootball for updates.

If you didn’t catch it, a reminder that Jerks of the Week for Dec. 30, 2013 is up, so just click the link. This week’s jerks entry is entitled the Twelve Jerks of Christmas.

I used to love making fun of GameCenter comments. The people on there were such idiots. There were even perverts like Aaron3619, who always asked chicks for their pictures so that he could carry them around.

I planned to mess with Aaron3619 as a fake user named TexasGirl1234, but NFL.com shut down its GameCenter and implemented Facebook comments instead. This enraged me, so get revenge, I made a fake Facebook account named Mario Migelini to troll people. Other readers followed suit and made fake accounts of their own.

I added a second fake account this year – Vivian Williamson. This is based off of Miss Vivian, a security guard at the Philadelphia International Airport, whom I’ve written about in Jerks of the Week (click the link to read about her).

Unfortunately, some a**holes with no sense of humor decided to flag Miss Vivian as a troller, so I had to make a new account. Kevin Reilly has been born!

Go here to see all of the NFL.com Troll Posts from myself and other trollers.

SAN FRANCISCO OFFENSE: Colin Kaepernick made enough great plays against the Packers that some media people have gone on and dubbed the 49ers the best team in the NFL. What Kaepernick did Sunday afternoon was a far cry from his struggles against the Panthers when these teams met in Week 10. Kaepernick was just 11-of-22 for 91 yards and an interception in that 10-9 loss.

Is Green Bay’s defense so bad that it made Kaepernick a billion times better? Well, the Packers definitely can’t stop anyone, but there were other circumstances involved even beyond Carolina’s stop unit being much better than the Packers’ defense. Michael Crabtree, who had a monstrous performance against Green Bay, still hadn’t returned when these teams met in November. The greater factor, however, was that Vernon Davis was knocked out of the game with an injury. The 49ers couldn’t muster a single point after Davis was sidelined. San Francisco was up 9-0 prior to Davis’ injury, and they finished the game with a 10-9 loss. Kaepernick simply looked lost without his favorite target. He went 6-of-9 for 43 yards when Davis was on the field and just 5-of-13 for 48 yards and a desperation interception following Davis’ concussion. He had similar struggles earlier in the season when Davis was out of the lineup.

With Crabtree and Davis at full strength, Kaepernick has no reason to struggle again. He’ll move the chains aerially and run around for big gains. However, it’s worth noting that he did nearly make some mistakes at Green Bay, including a potential game-losing interception thrown to Micah Hyde, who dropped the ball. Carolina, on the other hand, will take advantage of these opportunities.

CAROLINA OFFENSE: Cam Newton essentially played completely opposite compared to Kaepernick in the Week 10 battle. While Kaepernick was fine early before a sluggish finish, Newton had a rough start to the game. He completed just one of his first seven attempts – a 5-yarder – and was responsible for an ugly sequence that went: delay of game, timeout, interception because of bad mechanics. Newton also saw a potential second interception fall out of Navorro Bowman’s hands, but that seemed to spark him because he was solid after that. Newton was 11-of-18 for 115 yards following intermission despite enduring drops by Brandon LaFell and Steve Smith, who ruined a drive by botching what would have been a first-down conversion on third down.

Speaking of Smith, it was reported earlier in the week that he had a 60-percent chance of playing in this game. Smith is practicing this week though, so that’s a good sign. Newton will need Smith on the field, as he struggled a bit without his No. 1 receiver in the final couple of weeks during the season. Keep in mind though that even if Smith suits up, he may not be 100 percent.

Another challenge for Newton will be avoiding San Francisco’s incredible pass rush. Newton was sacked four times in Week 10, which is remarkable considering that Aldon Smith played just 12 snaps in that game. Smith was just getting his feet wet after a stint in rehab, but he’s fully back now. He dominated the Green Bay game, as San Francisco controlled the line of scrimmage. It might be able to do the same thing to Carolina’s front in this matchup.

Helping Newton out by establishing the run will obviously be one of Carolina’s goals. The Packers just gained 112 yards on the ground on 28 carries this past week, so the opportunities could be there, especially with the 49ers having to worry about Newton taking off.

RECAP: This is my favorite play of the week. I love Carolina for the following reasons:

1. This spread is at least four points off. I have the Panthers as a three-point favorite. These teams are right next to each other in my NFL Power Rankings, so given that Carolina gets a field goal for homefield advantage, the line should be -3. The spread is +1, however, because…

2. The public is overreacting to San Francisco’s victory at Lambeau. It was one of the most-watched football games in league history, and everyone saw Kaepernick run around and beat Aaron Rodgers. Now, everyone has the 49ers winning this contest. The analysts on ESPN are going nuts. For example, Bill Simmons and Cousin Sal both hinted that it was a lock the 49ers would win by three. Bill Plaschke called San Francisco the best team in the NFL. Perhaps they are, but how can you possibly tell that with a three-point victory over an 8-7-1 team missing two of its best defensive players? If Micah Hyde didn’t drop that interception, the Packers would be battling Carolina right now.

3. Speaking of the public, they are absolutely pounding the 49ers, yet the sharps are all over the Panthers. They know value when they see it, and there’s no reason Carolina should be a home dog.

4. The 49ers have to deal with some Circadian rhythms, as Roger Goodell, in his infinite wisdom, scheduled this game to kick off at 1 p.m. This screwed over the Seahawks in Atlanta last year.

5. Oh, and how can I possibly forget about Ric Flair? Check out the psychology section for that bizarre story. The Panthers have insane motivation on their side.

This is a four-unit play. This is not a Pick of the Month because of A) Jim Harbaugh and B) Cam Newton making his first playoff start. I discussed the issue that quarterbacks have endured in their initial postseason appearance, but I think Newton should be fine because rather than laying points, he’s a home dog.

FINAL THOUGHTS: Chad Millman confirmed that the sharps are all over the Panthers, though I’m disappointed that he didn’t bring up the Ric Flair subplot. All of the squares, meanwhile, have San Francisco. All but one of the ESPN analysts have the 49ers winning this game. That’s a great sign for Carolina.

Something else that favors the home dog is the trend I mentioned yesterday: Playoff teams with 12-plus victories are 39-10 against the spread if they have a worse record than their opponent.

As I wrote earlier, this spread makes no sense. These teams are about even – Carolina might even be a bit better – so the Panthers should be favored by three. Speaking of three, Bovada has a +3 -125 number on the board. I wouldn’t recommend laying the extra vig, but if you’re nervous about this game, you may want to look into that.

The Psychology. Edge: Panthers.

The Panthers have to feel disrespected as home underdogs. Plus, there’s the whole Ric Flair situation. I didn’t hear about it until Matvei told me about it:

All year, the Panthers have been doing the Ric Flair “WOOOOO” chant after big plays and when handing out game balls. They even taped a video for the JumboTron featuring a bunch of the secondary guys doing Flair moves/chants. So for whatever reason, despite appearing on shows like Celebrity Wife Swap, Ric Flair was coy about taking an invite to speak to the Panthers. He didn’t return calls, and some players actually tracked him down to a taco place where he kinda hemmed and hawed about visiting the team.

THEN, Jim Harbaugh takes a page out of the Bill Belichick playbook. He has a charter flight take Ric Flair to Wisconsin to give a speech to the Niners the night before the Packers game. Now the Panthers have to cancel all their Jumbotron videos.

Disrespected by the media, dismissed by the pundits, and now betrayed by a washed-up, debt-hounded, five-times-divorced pro wrestling icon.

The Vegas. Edge: Panthers.

Everyone is betting on the 49ers.

Percentage of money on San Francisco: 79% (78,000 bets)

The Trends. Edge: 49ers.

Road Warriors: Playoff teams coming off a road win in Round 1 are 10-3 ATS in Round 2 since 2005.

Worst Bye: Playoff teams coming off byes are 16-24 ATS since 2003.

Panthers are 38-48 ATS at home since 2003.

Opening Line: 49ers -1.5.

Opening Total: 43.

Weather: Sunny, 52 degrees. Mild wind, 10 mph.

Week 19 NFL Pick: Panthers 24, 49ers 20
Panthers +1 (4 Units) — Incorrect; -$440
Over 41.5 (0 Units) — Incorrect; $0
49ers 23, Panthers 10

San Diego Chargers (10-7) at Denver Broncos (13-3)
Line: Broncos by 9. Total: 55.
Walt’s Calculated Line: Broncos -4.5.
Sunday, Jan. 12, 4:30 ET
Discuss Playoff Games, Talk Trash

The Game. Edge: None.

This week on CBS, we’re going to have Jim Nantz and Phil Simms calling the shots instead of the great preseason homers like Kevin Reilly and Don Tollefson, inept ESPN guys Emmitt, Herman Edwards and Matt Millen, annoying men like Charles Davis and senile individuals like Bob Greise. Here’s what it would sound like if those seven clowns (and some special guests) were calling this game:

Nantz: Welcome to Denver, friends, where the No. 1 seed Denver Broncos will take on the Cinderella San Diego Chargers, friends. Hello, Phil and friends, it’s great to have you with us. Friends, we’re joined by some other friends today, but first, Phil, can Peyton Manning and friends pull this one out?

Simms: Well, Jim, to answer that, we need to ask ourselves if Peyton Manning can get over the stigma of not being able to win in the playoffs. Can he shrug off last year’s loss to the Ravens? Well, I don’t know, I suppose he can. And on the other side, can Philip Rivers win again in Denver? Well I don’t know, I suppose it’s possible. But can a No. 6 seed really beat a No. 1, Jim? Well, we’ve seen it happen before. But can it happen again, Jim, in this game? Well, I don’t know, it all depends on how Peyton Manning plays. And let me tell you something that really bothers me, Jim. It’s when people bring up Peyton Manning’s playoff losses for no reason. Wait, you’re asking why I’m contradicting myself because I brought up last year’s loss to the Ravens? Well, I don’t know, Jim, perhaps it was a slip of the tongue. You know what really bothers me, Jim? When people say idioms like a “slip of the tongue,” Jim. Oh, you want to know why I just said that, Jim? Well, I don’t know, Jim, it would be like asking how Peyton Manning lost to Mark Sanchez and the Jets a few years ago.

Nantz: Thanks, Phil. Friends, we are now joined by some other friends. Friends, these friends are from the other broadcasting network, so say hello to our friends, Kevin Reilly and friends.

Reilly: F*** off, Jim. I don’t need your bulls***.

Nantz: Friends, Kevin Reilly and I are friends, believe me. Kevin, I thought we were friends. Friends don’t say stuff like that to friends.

Emmitt: Joe, Bob really upsetfulness because his favorite team, the Eagle, losted to the Saint in the doggone playoff. He so upsetfulness that he impress. Real impress.

Nantz: I think you mean depressed, friend. Kevin, friend, you’ll be OK. Our favorite team can’t win every year, friend.

Reilly: But my team never wins! We’ve never won before! I’ve never seen my Eagles win the Super Bowl!

Edwards: THE EAGLES HAVE WON BEFORE! THEY WON BEFORE! THEY WERE CHAMPIONS BEFORE! THEY WON THE TITLE BEFORE! YOU DIDN’T SEE IT! NOT MANY OF US SAW IT! NOT MANY OF US WITNESSED IT! NOT MANY OF US WATCHED IT! WANT TO KNOW WHY WE HAVEN’T SEEN IT? I’LL TELL YOU WHY WE HAVEN’T SEEN IT! I’LL TELL YOU WHY WE HAVEN’T WATCHED IT! I’LL TELL YOU WHY WE HAVEN’T WITNESSED IT! I’LL TELL YOU WHY WE HAVEN’T OBSERVED IT! I’LL TELL YOU WHY WE HAVEN’T OBSERVED IT, NOW! HERM WILL TELL YOU WHY WE HAVEN’T OBSERVED IT! IT’S BECAUSE IT HAPPENED 40 YEARS AGO! IT HAPPENED 40 YEARS IN THE PAST! IT HAPPENED IN 1960! EAGLES WON IN 1960! EAGLES WON IN 1960, NOW! EAGLES WON THE CHAMPIONSHIP IN 1960! THAT WAS 40 YEARS AGO! NO WAIT, HERM MADE A CALCULATION ERROR! IT’S NOT 40 YEARS AGO! HERM’S TRYING TO FIGURE OUT HOW LONG AGO IT WAS! BUT HERM DOESN’T HAVE A CALCULATOR! NO CALCULATOR HERE! NO CALCULATOR THERE! NO CALCULATOR ANYWHERE! HERM USED TO HAVE A CALCULATOR! BUT WHERE DID THE CALCULATOR GO? HERM’S TRYING TO FIND THE CALCULATOR! MAYBE IF HERM HAD A TIME MACHINE HE COULD GET HIS CALCULATOR! THAT’S ALL HERM NEEDS TO DO! HERM NEEDS TO BUILD A TIME MACHINE! ONCE HE GETS A TIME MACHINE, HE CAN FIND HIS CALCULATOR! ONCE HE FINDS THE CALCULATOR HE CAN DO THE MATH! HE CAN SUBTRACT… uhh… umm… HERM FORGOT WHAT HE NEEDS TO SUBTRACT! HERM MISREMEMBERED! MAYBE THE TIME MACHINE CAN HELP HERM REMEMBER WHAT HE WAS SUPPOSED TO SUBTRACT! HERM’S GONNA GO BUILD THE TIME MACHINE NOW! NOW ALL HE NEEDS IS PARTS FOR A TIME MACHINE! STEP ONE FOR A TIME MACHINE IS… uhh… umm…

Reilly: You idiot, couldn’t you just see the Eagles win the championship with your time machine? See what I’m dealing with here, Nantz? This bozo played for my Eagles in what I like to call the Dark Ages of my Philadelphia Eagles. And now he thinks he can just build a time machine out of nowhere.

Davis: It’s not out of nowhere, Kevin. Did you know that they already made a time machine, Kevin? Did you know that it was in the form of a car, Kevin? Want to know the primary part for the time machine, Kevin? It was the flux capacitor, Kevin. But there are other parts to the time machine, Kevin. Did you know that plutonium is required, Kevin? Plutonium, named after Pluto, used to be the ninth planet in our solar system, Kevin. But now it’s not considered a planet anymore, Kevin. It’s just Uranus and Neptune, and that’s it, Kevin. If the plutonium goes goodbye like the planet Pluto, did you know a lightning rod can be used, Kevin? It requires 1.21 gigawatts of power, Kevin. The car also has to be going really fast, Kevin. Do you know how fast, Kevin? I’ll give you a multiple-choice quiz, Kevin. Is it, A) 60, Kevin? B) 70, Kevin? C) 80, Kevin? Or D) 88, Kevin? Or E) 90, Kevin? I’ll give you five seconds, Kevin. Give up, Kevin? The ans…

Reilly: I’LL F***ING KILL YOU, CHARLES DAVIS! BACK TO THE FUTURE WAS MY FAVORITE MOVIE AND YOU JUST RUINED IT, SO I’M GOING TO STRANGLE YOU TO DEATH!

Nantz: Friends watching at home, this is not how friends are supposed to act.

Tollefson: Kevin, calm the f*** down. What Charles Davis is saying is true. I sell time machines that sound exactly like this. You can buy one from me for $999.99, and I’ll donate all of the money to charity, I swear. Order one in the next 10 minutes, and I’ll even throw in a cute bimbo who will cook and clean for you in the nude. So, what’s your credit card information?

Millen: Oh, me first! Here’s all of my credit card info, Tolly. But you can keep the bimbo. I want a time machine so I can go back in time and show my kielbasa collection to some of the great men in history like Abraham Lincoln, Julius Caesar and Alexander the Great. I’m particularly interested in Alexander because from what I hear, he was 5,000-percent USDA Man. That’s what made him so great. Word on the street is that you could shove 500 kielbasas up his backside, and there would be plenty of room for more. I feel as though Alexander the Great would be my soul mate, yet we were born a thousand years apart.

Edwards: FIFTY-FOUR! IT WAS FIFTY-FOUR YEARS AGO! HERM FOUND HIS CALCULATOR! IT WAS RIGHT IN HIS HANDS THE ENTIRE TIME! RIGHT IN HIS HANDS! RIGHT HERE IN HIS HANDS! HERM LOOKED EVERYWHERE EXCEPT HIS HANDS! WHY DID HERM NOT LOOK IN HIS HANDS!?

Reilly: Because Herm is a f***ing idiot. I’ll kill you and Charles Davis together!!!

Reilly takes out a knife, but trips as he’s getting out of his chair. The knife flies into Jim Nantz’s chest.

Nantz: Friends, it’s been a great, ride, friends. I’m just happy I can say my goodbyes in front of all of my friends. Goodbye, friends.

Griese: Weh? Who is that guy who just died?

Reilly: Who the f*** cares. We were never his friends. We’ll be back after a word from our local sponsors!

DENVER OFFENSE: It was bizarre to see the Broncos’ offense so bogged down in the previous meeting between these teams. Peyton Manning was just 11-of-19 for only 137 yards with a couple of minutes remaining in the third quarter. Those were his true stats; everything he did after that could be considered garbage time, as San Diego suddenly went into a prevent.

It must be noted that Manning didn’t have Wes Welker at his disposal, but that’s no excuse. He was still able to throw to Demaryius Thomas, Julius Thomas, Eric Decker and Knowshon Moreno, though Manning did spend an absurd amount of time targeting Andre Caldwell, which turned out to be a huge mistake. Caldwell made numerous unforced errors. He dropped a pass and didn’t read a back-shoulder opportunity correctly. He also was targeted on a near-interception because he couldn’t separate from the corner who was covering him.

Having Welker back will be huge, but those who believe Manning will easily torch San Diego’s defense will be disappointed. The Chargers were awful on this side of the ball earlier in the year, but they’ve made improvements over the final few weeks of the season. For instance, they’re 27th overall in rush defense in terms of YPC, but they’re fourth in that category over the past month. The same goes for pass defense: 28th overall; 15th over the previous month. This is no fluke. Linebacker Melvin Ingram’s return from a knee injury has been huge. Also, safety Jahleel Addae has been an upgrade ever since being inserted into the lineup.

Manning will still score some points, but he won’t have a strong rushing attack supporting him because the Chargers have been so good against the run lately. Weather could also be a factor. It won’t be very cold – Weather.com predicts it’ll be in the mid-40s – but it’s looking like it could be pretty windy, which affects Manning much more than the temperature.

SAN DIEGO OFFENSE: While the Chargers are happy to have their stud outside linebacker on the field again, the Broncos will have to deal with not having theirs. Von Miller is done for the year. In fact, the last full game Miller played was the Week 15 matchup against San Diego. Miller performed well, but he couldn’t do anything to stop Philip Rivers, who didn’t post great stats (12-of-20, 166 yards, two touchdowns), but made some incredible, clutch throws to keep the chains moving.

The Broncos were already porous on defense, so losing Miller will hurt in all facets. They won’t be able to generate nearly as much pressure on the quarterback, which has to be music to Rivers’ ears because he has really thrived this year due to improved pass protection. King Dunlap has been a shocking upgrade at left tackle, while D.J. Fluker has done well on the right side. Fluker won’t have to worry about blocking Miller at all, while Dunlap should be able to shut down Shaun Phillips again, which is what happened in Week 15.

Miller’s absence will also hurt Denver’s ability to stop the rush, which was already a struggle. Ryan Mathews gained 127 yards on 29 carries in the previous matchup. The Broncos couldn’t bring him down when San Diego was bleeding the clock, and again, that was with Miller on the field.

RECAP: I like the Chargers a lot. If you’re scared of Manning, don’t be. Chris W. posted this on my Facebook wall:

More stats, stats, stats on Manning (all records are straight up)…

– He’s 9-11, yet some call him the greatest ever!
– He’s 5-7 against teams he played in the regular season
– If we take out the “magical” 2006 Super Bowl year, he’d be 5-11!
– Or he’s 2-5 since winning the Super Bowl, either way it’s not good
– That’s 1-4 coming off a bye
– 0-4 in games decided by a Field Goal or less
– 0-3 in games that went to OT
– 0-2 vs San Diego
– 0-1 vs divisional opponents, somehow this only happened against Miami in 2000 (they split the regular season meetings)

Pretty insane, right? Well, there are other reasons for liking San Diego:

1. This spread is WAY off. I don’t get why the Broncos are such a big favorite; my number is Denver -4.5. The Chargers are one of the hottest teams in the NFL, yet they’re undervalued because of their record and near-loss to Kansas City’s backups, a game that they took for granted. San Diego has beaten Indianapolis, Kansas City, Denver and Cincinnati this year. The team plays up to its competition.

2. The line on this game doesn’t really make much sense considering that the Chargers haven’t lost a single game this year by more than 10 points. Their losses this season have been by 3, 3, 10, 6, 8, 4 and 7. San Diego has played close games all year, so why it suddenly get blown out?

3. Mike McCoy coached for the Broncos last year, so he’s capable of putting together better game plans than most against Denver. That’s one of the reasons San Diego dismantled the Broncos back in Week 15 (it was 24-10 heading into the fourth quarter).

4. The sharps are all over the Chargers. This spread opened -10.5 at an offshore book and has since sunk to -9 or -9.5 despite there being equal action on both sides. There have been many huge bets coming in on San Diego.

SATURDAY NIGHT ALERT: The sharps appear to be betting this spread down even further. It’s now +8 in some books. You can still get +9 at BetUS and 5Dimes, so I advise doing that before those disappear. If you can only get +8 or +8.5, I’d make this a three-unit play.

FINAL THOUGHTS: If you didn’t see my tweet Saturday night – @walterfootball – you might be stuck ith a line of +7.5 to +8.5. If it’s +8 or +8.5, I’d like San Diego for three units. If it’s +7.5, make it two units.

As for the sharp-square play, Chad Millman said the sharps took San Diego from +9 to +10, but some sharps went with Broncos -8.5 for either value or middling purposes.

The Psychology. Edge: None.
No edge found.

The Vegas. Edge: None.
Equal action.

Percentage of money on San Diego: 52% (94,000 bets)

The Trends. Edge: Chargers.

History: Broncos have won 4 of the last 5 meetings.

Road Warriors: Playoff teams coming off a road win in Round 1 are 10-3 ATS in Round 2 since 2005.

Worst Bye: Playoff teams coming off byes are 16-24 ATS since 2003.

Philip Rivers is 29-18 ATS as a starter after Nov. 30 (12-5 ATS as an underdog).

Philip Rivers is 5-3 ATS as a divisional underdog of 7+.

John Fox is 7-3 ATS in the playoffs.

Peyton Manning is 4-11 ATS in the playoffs (excluding games against terrible QBs: Jake Plummer, Trent Green, Rex Grossman).

Peyton Manning is 3-7 SU vs. 3-4 Defenses in the playoffs (6-4 SU vs. 4-3 Defenses).

Peyton Manning is 4-7 SU when the temperature is 32 degrees or colder. ???

Opening Line: Broncos -10.5.

Opening Total: 54.5.

Weather: Sunny/clear, 37 degrees. Mild wind, 19 mph.

Week 19 NFL Pick: Broncos 27, Chargers 24
Chargers +9 (4 Units) — Correct; +$400
Under 55 (0 Units) — Correct; $0
Broncos 24, Chargers 17

Week 19 NFL Picks – Saturday Games
Saints at Seahawks, Colts at Patriots

Prop/Teaser/Parlay Picks
A list of some of my favorite team/player prop picks this week
(Offense & defensive ROY picks to be counted whenver winners are announced.) Picks carried over on a week-to-week basis will be in black.

Moneyline Underdog: Chargers +310 (0.5 units) — Incorrect; -$50

NFL Picks - Nov. 23

2025 NFL Mock Draft - Nov. 20

NFL Power Rankings - Nov. 19

Fantasy Football Rankings - Sept. 4

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Last Week's NFL Picks Against The Spread (Week 12, 2024): 11-3 (+$2,020)
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1999 Season NFL Picks Against The Spread: 27-41-3 (39.7%)
2000 Season NFL Picks Against The Spread: 128-123-8 (51.0%)
2001 Season NFL Picks Against The Spread: 127-122-7 (51.0%)
2002 Season NFL Picks Against The Spread: 123-136-7 (47.5%)
2003 Season NFL Picks Against The Spread: 146-126-8 (53.7%)
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2005 Season NFL Picks Against The Spread: 156-126-11 (55.3%)
2006 Season NFL Picks Against The Spread: 151-135-9 (52.8%)
2007 Season NFL Picks Against The Spread: 162-135-10, 54.5% (+$3,585)
2008 Season NFL Picks Against The Spread: 148-140-7, 51.4% (+$6,105)
2009 Season NFL Picks Against The Spread: 151-124-9, 54.9% (+$4,235)
2010 Season NFL Picks Against The Spread: 144-131-8, 52.4% (+$5,880)
2011 Season NFL Picks Against The Spread: 137-133-12, 50.7% (-$1,335)
2012 Season NFL Picks Against The Spread: 130-145-8, 47.3% (-$7,445)
2013 Season NFL Picks Against The Spread: 144-131-8, 52.4% (+$7,825)
2014 Season NFL Picks Against The Spread: 143-133-7, 51.8% (-$1,885)
2015 Season NFL Picks Against The Spread: 134-138-12, 49.3% (-$3,215)
2016 Season NFL Picks Against The Spread: 148-127-10, 53.8% (+$780)
2017 Season NFL Picks Against The Spread: 137-140-8, 49.5% (-$4,300)
2018 Season NFL Picks Against The Spread: 140-134-14, 51.3% (+$845)
2019 Season NFL Picks Against The Spread: 149-128-9, 53.6% (+$1,200)
2020 Season NFL Picks Against The Spread: 138-124-7, 52.7% (+$9,350)
2021 Season NFL Picks Against The Spread: 153-141-2, 51.9% (+$210)
2022 Season NFL Picks Against The Spread: 154-134-8, 53.5% (+$9,860)
2023 Season NFL Picks Against The Spread: 144-141-7, 50.5% (-$7,285)

2002 Season 2-3 Unit NFL Picks: 41-49-2 (45.6%)
2003 Season 2-3 Unit NFL Picks: 52-51-2 (50.5%)
2004 Season 2-3 Unit NFL Picks: 65-44-3 (59.6%)
2005 Season 2-3 Unit NFL Picks: 77-61-1 (55.8%)
2006 Season 2-3 Unit NFL Picks: 65-61-4 (51.6%)
2007 Season 2-3 Unit NFL Picks: 83-59-5, 58.5% (+$4,110)
2008 Season 2-3 Unit NFL Picks: 44-57-3, 43.6% (-$3,510)
2009 Season 2-3 Unit NFL Picks: 49-35-3, 58.3% (+$2,260)
2010 Season 2-3 Unit NFL Picks: 51-38-4, 57.3% (+$3,180)
2011 Season 2-3 Unit NFL Picks: 44-51-3, 46.3% (-$2,715)
2012 Season 2-3 Unit NFL Picks: 45-50-2, 47.4% (-$2,130)
2013 Season 2-3 Unit NFL Picks: 38-42, 47.5% (-$2,890)
2015 Season 2-3 Unit NFL Picks: 47-44-1, 51.6% (-$820)
2016 Season 2-3 Unit NFL Picks: 42-35-3, 54.5% (+$475)
2017 Season 2-3 Unit NFL Picks: 32-40-3, 43.8% (-$2,395)
2018 Season 2-3 Unit NFL Picks: 52-41-2, 55.9% (+$2,670)
2019 Season 2-3 Unit NFL Picks: 44-36-2, 55.0% (+$655)
2020 Season 2-3 Unit NFL Picks: 47-43-3, 52.2% (-$1,965)
2021 Season 2-3 Unit NFL Picks: 50-50, 50.0% (-$1,570)
2022 Season 2-3 Unit NFL Picks: 56-44-2, 56.0% (+$1,860)
2023 Season 2-3 Unit NFL Picks: 44-40-3, 52.4% (+$285)

2002 Season 4-5 Unit NFL Picks: 11-12 (47.8%)
2003 Season 4-5 Unit NFL Picks: 16-13-1 (55.2%)
2004 Season 4-5 Unit NFL Picks: 18-11 (62.1%)
2005 Season 4-5 Unit NFL Picks: 25-22-1 (53.2%)
2006 Season 4-5 Unit NFL Picks: 21-29-1 (42.0%)
2007 Season 4-5 Unit NFL Picks: 35-30-2, 53.8% (+$420)
2008 Season 4-5 Unit NFL Picks: 39-26-2, 60.0% (+$4,055)
2009 Season 4-5 Unit NFL Picks: 29-26, 52.7% (+$330)
2010 Season 4-5 Unit NFL Picks: 32-22, 59.3% (+$4,790)
2011 Season 4-5 Unit NFL Picks: 14-14, 50.0% (-$1,260)
2012 Season 4-5 Unit NFL Picks: 14-21, 40.0% (-$3,650)
2013 Season 4-5 Unit NFL Picks: 17-9-3, 65.4% (+$2,970)
2015 Season 4-5 Unit NFL Picks: 17-16-2, 51.5% (-$1,120)
2016 Season 4-5 Unit NFL Picks: 21-22-5, 48.8% (-$1,465)
2017 Season 4-5 Unit NFL Picks: 20-22-1, 47.6% (-$1,595)
2018 Season 4-5 Unit NFL Picks: 27-32-1, 45.8% (-$4,735)
2019 Season 4-5 Unit NFL Picks: 37-27-2, 57.8% (+$2,185)
2020 Season 4-5 Unit NFL Picks: 37-22-1, 62.7% (+$5,515)
2021 Season 4-5 Unit NFL Picks: 32-32-1, 50.0% (-$725)
2022 Season 4-5 Unit NFL Picks: 41-30-1, 57.8% (+$3,725)
2023 Season 4-5 Unit NFL Picks: 32-27-1, 54.2% (-$1,310)

2001 Season Over-Under: 3-2 (60.0%)
2002 Season Over-Under: 121-91-3 (57.1%)
2003 Season Over-Under: 126-132-2 (48.8%)
2004 Season Over-Under: 139-124-4 (52.9%)
2005 Season Over-Under: 117-145-4 (44.7%)
2006 Season Over-Under: 129-132-5 (49.4%)
2007 Season Over-Under: 136-145-3, 48.4% (-$1,900)
2008 Season Over-Under: 137-125-6, 52.3% (+$860)
2009 Season Over-Under: 128-135-4, 48.7% (-$3,195)
2010 Season Over-Under: 128-135-5, 48.7% (-$5)
2011 Season Over-Under: 131-131-5, 50.0% (+$135)
2012 Season Over-Under: 125-121-5, 50.8% (+$30)
2013 Season Over-Under: 132-130-5, 50.4% (-$340)
2015 Season Over-Under: 143-119-5, 54.6% ($0)
2016 Season Over-Under: 123-141-1, 46.6% (+$95)
2017 Season Over-Under: 136-139-2, 49.5% (+$640)
2018 Season Over-Under: 118-128-3, 48.0% (-$225)
2019 Season Over-Under: 126-133-4, 48.6% (-$50)
2020 Season Over-Under: 141-122-6, 53.6% ($0)
2021 Season Over-Under: 132-151-3, 46.6% ($0)
2022 Season Over-Under: 133-149-2, 47.2% (-$225)
2023 Season Over-Under: 145-135-3, 51.8% (+$200)

2007 Season Prop/ML/Teaser/Parlay Picks: +$1,035
2008 Season Prop/ML/Teaser/Parlay Picks: +$1,775
2009 Season Prop/ML/Teaser/Parlay Picks: +$865
2010 Season Prop/ML/Teaser/Parlay Picks: -$200
2011 Season Prop/ML/Teaser/Parlay Picks: +$590
2012 Season Prop/ML/Teaser/Parlay Picks: -$1,685
2013 Season Prop/ML/Teaser/Parlay Picks: +$2,245
2015 Season Prop/ML/Teaser/Parlay Picks: -$855
2016 Season Prop/ML/Teaser/Parlay Picks: -$275
2017 Season Prop/ML/Teaser/Parlay Picks: -$510
2018 Season Prop/ML/Teaser/Parlay Picks: +$1,495
2019 Season Prop/ML/Teaser/Parlay Picks: -$1,715
2020 Season Prop/ML/Teaser/Parlay Picks: +$4,975
2021 Season Prop/ML/Teaser/Parlay Picks: +$3,455
2022 Season Prop/ML/Teaser/Parlay Picks: +$5,720
2023 Season Prop/ML/Teaser/Parlay Picks: -$2,565

2006 NFL Picks of the Month: 3-3 (50%)
2007 NFL Picks of the Month: 3-3, 50.0% (-$400)
2008 NFL Picks of the Month: 6-1, 85.7% (+$3,720)
2009 NFL Picks of the Month: 3-2, 60.0% (+$640)
2010 NFL Picks of the Month: 2-4, 33.3% (-$1,810)
2011 NFL Picks of the Month: 5-2, 71.4% (+$1,870)
2012 NFL Picks of the Month: 3-2, 60.0% (+$560)
2013 NFL Picks of the Month: 6-0, 100% (+$3,900)
2014 NFL Picks of the Month: 2-4, 33.3% (-$1,350)
2015 NFL Picks of the Month: 3-3, 50.0% (-$100)
2016 NFL Picks of the Month: 5-1, 83.3% (+$2,780)
2017 NFL Picks of the Month: 4-2, 66.7% (+$1,040)
2018 NFL Picks of the Month: 4-3, 57.1% (-$640)
2019 NFL Picks of the Month: 3-3-1, 50.0% (-$625)
2020 NFL Picks of the Month: 3-2, 60.0% (+$665)
2021 NFL Picks of the Month: 2-3, 40.0% (-$920)
2022 NFL Picks of the Month: 3-4, 42.9% (-$1,615)
2023 NFL Picks of the Month: 2-5, 28.6% (-$2,550)

Career NFL Picks Against The Spread: 3,510-3,234-202, 52.0% (+$19,125)
Career 2-3 Unit NFL Picks: 1,129-1,011-57 (52.8%)
Career 4-5 Unit NFL Picks: 571-502-25 (53.2%)
Career Over-Under: 2,941-2,916-76 (50.2%)
Career Second-Half NFL Picks: 23-16-1 (59.0%)
Career NFL Picks of the Month: 47-37-1 (56.0%)

My Team-by-Team ATS Record
This section shows how well I do when picking each team this year. The purpose is to see how well I read each team. Pushes are not displayed. Winning/losing streak in parentheses.

Cowboys: 6-3	Bears: 5-5	Bucs: 6-4	49ers: 6-4
Eagles: 5-5	Lions: 9-1	Falcons: 6-5	Cardinals: 8-2
Giants: 3-6	Packers: 6-3	Panthers: 4-6	Rams: 5-5
Redskins: 5-5	Vikings: 4-6	Saints: 5-6	Seahawks: 6-3

Bills: 4-7	Bengals: 2-9	Colts: 6-5	Broncos: 7-4
Dolphins: 4-6	Browns: 3-7	Jaguars: 3-7	Chargers: 6-3
Jets: 6-5	Ravens: 5-5	Texans: 5-6	Chiefs: 4-5
Patriots: 6-3	Steelers: 4-6	Titans: 6-3	Raiders: 5-5

Divisional: 21-23 (2011-23: 608-561)	2x Game Edge: 18-14 (2011-23: 401-387)	2x Motivation Edge: 31-25 (2011-23: 510-441)	2x Spread Edge: 21-30 (2011-23: 239-211)
2x Vegas Edge: 33-47 (2011-23: 448-446)	2x Trend Edge: 12-8 (2011-23: 321-293)	Double Edge: 13-16 (2011-23: 207-185)	Triple Edge: 4-8 (2011-23: 33-37)