NFL Picks Against the Spread: Week 15, 2013

NFL Picks (Preseason 2013): 10-6 (+$720)
NFL Picks (Week 1, 2013): 4-11-1 (-$1,290)
NFL Picks (Week 2, 2013): 6-10 (+$130)
NFL Picks (Week 3, 2013): 9-6-1 (+$20)
NFL Picks (Week 4, 2013): 11-4 (+$870)
NFL Picks (Week 5, 2013): 8-6 (+$1,060)
NFL Picks (Week 6, 2013): 4-11 (-$420)
NFL Picks (Week 7, 2013): 6-9 (-$730)
NFL Picks (Week 8, 2013): 8-5 (+$760)
NFL Picks (Week 9, 2013): 5-8 (-$280)
NFL Picks (Week 10, 2013): 9-4-1 (-$110)
NFL Picks (Week 11, 2013): 5-7-3 (-$480)
NFL Picks (Week 12, 2013): 9-5 (+$1,660)
NFL Picks (Week 13, 2013): 10-6 (+$850)
NFL Picks (Week 14, 2013): 7-9 (+$430)

NFL Picks (2013): 111-107-5 (+$3,190)
NFL Picks (2012): 130-145-8 (-$5,760)
NFL Picks (2011): 137-133-12 (-$1,925)
NFL Picks (2010): 144-131-8 (+$6,080)
NFL Picks (2009): 151-124-9 (+$3,370)
NFL Picks (2008): 136-125-6 (+$4,330)
If you don’t quite understand the line, total or anything else, go to my Sports Betting FAQ.

Vegas betting action updated Dec. 16, 5:45 p.m. ET. Follow @walterfootball for updates.

Go to Week 15 NFL Picks – Early Games

New York Jets (6-7) at Carolina Panthers (9-4)
Line: Panthers by 11. Total: 41.
Las Vegas Hilton Advance Point Spread: Panthers -10.
Walt’s Calculated Line (After Week 14): Panthers -11.
Sunday, Dec. 15, 4:05 ET
Discuss Week 15 Games, Talk Trash

The Game. Edge: Panthers.

The Adventures of Tom Brady’s Haircuts is back for a second season! As with everything else though, I’m moving it to its own separate page. See what’s going on this week with this picture here:

NEW YORK OFFENSE: In my previous pick capsule, I wondered how the Vikings would possibly score against the Eagles. The same question could be asked in terms of the Jets’ ability to put up points against the Panthers. Geno Smith looked competent last week, thanks to Santonio Holmes and Jeremy Kerley being on the field again, but that was against the Raiders at home, where he’s beaten the Saints and Patriots. He’s been awful on the road, committing 15 of his 24 turnovers outside of the Meadowlands.

But this is not just any ordinary away game. Smith will be battling the Panthers, who have one of the top defenses in the NFL. Their front seven shuts down the run and puts pressure on the quarterback extremely well. The latter will obviously impact Smith negatively, and the former will as well; the Jets have achieved most of their victories against teams they’ve been able to rush the ball against, which makes sense because Smith can’t be trusted. The Panthers are sixth versus the rush in terms of YPC (3.83), so Chris Ivory won’t get anything on the ground. As a consequence, Smith will be under siege in long-yardage situations all afternoon.

CAROLINA OFFENSE: Cam Newton couldn’t get much going Sunday night because the Saints swarmed his pocket and put tons of pressure on him. Newton took five sacks, an incredibly high number for a mobile quarterback. Right tackle Byron Bell was mostly to blame, as he couldn’t block Junior Galette. However, Bell won’t be a major factor in this matchup because most of the Jets’ pressure comes from the interior with Muhammad Wilkerson and Sheldon Richardson. Carolina has one liability on the inside – right guard Nate Chandler, who figures to struggle in this contest.

Newton, however, will actually be able to hear what’s going on in this matchup, so he’ll perform better. He’ll be able to scramble out of some sacks, and most of his receivers figure to get open; the Jets are completely inept when it comes to covering wideouts because of underachieving cornerbacks and horrible safety play.

New York can at least stop the run. With Jonathan Stewart out with a torn MCL, DeAngelo Williams will be asked to rush through the NFL’s No. 1 ground defense in terms of YPC (3.10).

RECAP: I have no interest in betting on Geno Smith on the road against one of the top defenses in the NFL, but the Jets seem like the right side. The Panthers are coming off an emotional loss to the Saints, and they have to prepare for their rematch against New Orleans next week. New York, meanwhile, is fighting for its playoff life, so this game means so much more to them. It’s a shame its quarterback is so incompetent; otherwise, I’d bet a couple of units on the visitor.

FINAL THOUGHTS: The sharps are all over the Jets (notice how the spread dropped Saturday with so much public money on Carolina). Bill Simmons, meanwhile, chose the Panthers as his fourth selection. This should tell you New York is the right side, but I just can’t stomach betting any money on Geno Smith against a great defense on the road.

SUNDAY NOTES: What I wrote in my final thoughts still applies. There’s so much favoring the Jets, but Geno Smith…

The Psychology. Edge: Jets.

This game for Carolina is sandwiched in between two battles against the Saints.

The Vegas. Edge: Jets.

This seems like a no-brainer.

Percentage of money on Carolina: 77% (50,000 bets)

The Trends. Edge: Jets.

Panthers are 20-26 ATS as a home favorite of 3.5 or more since 2001.

Panthers are 37-47 ATS at home since 2003.

Opening Line: Panthers -11.

Opening Total: 40.5.

Weather: Partly cloudy, 47 degrees. Light wind.

Week 15 NFL Pick: Panthers 27, Jets 20
Jets +11 (0 Units) — Correct; $0
Over 41 (0 Units) — Correct; $0
Panthers 30, Jets 20

Kansas City Chiefs (10-3) at Oakland Raiders (4-9)
Line: Chiefs by 5.5. Total: 43.5.
Las Vegas Hilton Advance Point Spread: Chiefs -3.
Walt’s Calculated Line (After Week 14): Chiefs -1.
Sunday, Dec. 15, 4:05 ET
Discuss Week 15 Games, Talk Trash

The Game. Edge: Chiefs.

This summer, I ran a Mafia game on the Web site called Penn State Sex Scandal Mafia. You can click the link to read the introduction and see the list of players. I’ll add to this page throughout the season, listing roles and talking about funny things that happened during the game.

Why am I doing this? Well, I wanted to post this on the main section of this Web site so that the mainstream media people who have sand in their vages will pick up on this and complain that I’m being insensitive.

Oh, and by the way, we have other Mafia games going on right now in the Mafia Forum. Mafia is a blast, so come and join the fun.

KANSAS CITY OFFENSE: Remember the days when the Chiefs couldn’t score at all? Well, they’ve somehow posted 38, 28 and 45 in their previous three contests – and that middle number would have been much higher if the wideouts didn’t drop so many passes. I suppose something like that isn’t avoidable with such a pedestrian receiving corps, but the fact remains that Kansas City is moving the ball much more efficiently lately.

Alex Smith’s cumulative numbers over the past three games look like this: 66-of-100, 724 yards, seven touchdowns and two interceptions. That’s good for a completion percentage of 66 and a YPA of 7.24. I didn’t even need my calculator for that! Anyway, I don’t see a reason why he and the Chiefs would suddenly slow down. The Raiders, after all, couldn’t even stop Geno Smith on Sunday, allowing the struggling rookie to go 16-of-25 for 219 yards, one touchdown and an early interception.

The Raiders’ defensive YPA is 18th (7.36) over the past month. It’s not Chargers- or Redskins-bad, but they will have some issues in this contest. They can at least stop the run, so the Chiefs won’t compile 189 rushing yards against them like they did to the sleepwalking Redskins. However, Jamaal Charles does a big part of his damage as a receiver coming out of the backfield, so it’s not like the Raiders can avoid that aspect of Kansas City’s scoring attack.

OAKLAND OFFENSE: The Raiders have had success offensively as well recently. They’ve moved the chains effectively against each of their previous four opponents, which includes the Jets last week. Matt McGloin has been much better than expected. Thanks to offensive coordinator Greg Olson’s tutelage, McGloin has posted comparable numbers to the ones I’ve listed for Smith. The completion percentage isn’t as good, but McGloin’s YPA is much higher, as his arm strength looks better than it ever did at Penn State.

The Chiefs happen to boast the best defense McGloin will have faced thus far in his young career, but they haven’t been nearly as effective on this side of the ball lately. They can’t stop the rush, surrendering at least 100 yards to four of their previous five opponents. This is good news for the Raiders, who move the chains very effectively on the ground. Rashad Jennings will be back from his concussion, so Kansas City will have some trouble containing him.

With a strong rushing attack to support him, McGloin won’t have to face much pressure. That might not have been an issue anyway because the Chiefs have struggled to get to the quarterback lately. Prior to the Washington game – I’m not going to take away anything from that because the Redskins mailed that in – Kansas City had accumulated just two sacks in five games. The Raiders have done a solid job of protecting McGloin, thanks to Jared Veldheer’s return from injury, so the undrafted rookie should be able to have success against a secondary that is 31st in YPA (9.16) over the past month.

RECAP: The sharps are on the Raiders, and I am too. This spread is ridiculously high (would be -11 in Kansas City), as this game means absolutely nothing to the Chiefs, who are locked into the No. 5 seed. Oakland doesn’t have any playoff implications either, but it would love to beat one of its arch rivals and avenge an earlier loss.

FINAL THOUGHTS: Bill Simmons’ fifth pick is one I’m going to fade for one more unit. Simmons likes the Chiefs, while the sharps are taking the Raiders. There’s actually so much public money on Kansas City that Vegas will need Oakland to cash, even if it takes some Clete Blakeman-type antics. Also, Matvei, who lives in the Bay Area, told me that this game is sold out, and there’s a lot of excitement for the Raiders, who are playing better with Matt McGloin. This is Oakland’s big game, as it has a chance to knock off one of its hated rivals.

SUNDAY NOTES: There’s more money on the Chiefs than any team this week. It’s Oakland or nothing, and I like the home dog.

The Psychology. Edge: None.
No edge found.

The Vegas. Edge: Raiders.

Everyone is betting on the Chiefs.

Percentage of money on Kansas City: 92% (49,000 bets)

The Trends. Edge: None.

History: Road Team has won 11 of the last 14 meetings (Raiders 9 of the last 13 meetings).

Opening Line: Chiefs -3.5.

Opening Total: 41.

Weather: Sunny, 64 degrees. Light wind.

Week 15 NFL Pick: Chiefs 20, Raiders 19
Raiders +5.5 (3 Units) — Incorrect; -$330
Under 43.5 (0 Units) — Incorrect; $0
Chiefs 56, Raiders 31

Arizona Cardinals (8-5) at Tennessee Titans (5-8)
Line: Cardinals by 2.5. Total: 42.5.
Las Vegas Hilton Advance Point Spread: Cardinals -1.5.
Walt’s Calculated Line (After Week 14): Titans -2.
Sunday, Dec. 15, 4:25 ET
Discuss Week 15 Games, Talk Trash

The Game. Edge: Cardinals.

I used to post a Survivor update in this spot, but the contest is over with Joshsports60 being the victor:

There’s good news though – my programmers are currently working on an NFL Mock Draft Builder, so we will be having our NFL Mock Draft contest on this Web site for the first time. Look for the NFL Mock Draft Builder right after Christmas. I’m hoping to have some preview shots for you by next week.

TENNESSEE OFFENSE: The Cardinals suffered a huge blow this past weekend when Tyrann Mathieu went down with a season-ending injury. Mathieu had played extremely well for the Cardinals despite merely being a rookie. His absence will be felt going forward, but perhaps not in this game, as the wheels seem to be falling off for Tennessee.

There’s been speculation that the Titans could purge the roster this offseason, cutting Chris Johnson and some offensive linemen. With the future being extremely cloudy, it’s difficult to see Tennessee put together a good game plan for a defense that is still dominant, even without Mathieu. Johnson certainly won’t find much running room; the Cardinals boast the NFL’s No. 2 ground defense in terms of YPC (3.25), as they haven’t allowed a team to rush for 100-plus yards since Week 7.

Arizona is also capable of putting tons of pressure on the quarterback as well. The team is fifth in sacks (40), a ranking that has quickly risen ever since Daryl Washington returned from a suspension back in Week 5. The Titans don’t normally have pass-protection issues, but that could definitely be the case this Sunday. If so, they’ll obviously have immense issues moving the football.

ARIZONA OFFENSE: Tennessee also has a decent amount of success putting heat on opposing signal-callers. Jurrell Casey has been a beast this season, as most teams haven’t had any sort of success blocking him. The Cardinals won’t have much luck in that regard, though their greatest liability is at the left tackle position. Bradley Sowell is an abomination, so I’ve given them a replacement in my most recent 2014 NFL Mock Draft.

However, Bruce Arians has done a good job of masking his offensive line’s ineptitude. Even the Rams, who have a fierce pass rush, managed just one sack on Carson Palmer this past Sunday. As long as Arians puts another good game plan together, Palmer should be able to find Larry Fitzgerald and Michael Floyd downfield, though it should be noted that Tennessee has a pair of solid cornerbacks, so the former may not go off like he did last week.

Andre Ellington is back though, and he’ll give Tennessee some headaches. The Titans have actually ranked in the bottom 10 against the run (4.58 YPC) over the past month. Ellington is capable of going the distance every single time he touches the ball, so he may break a few big gains this Sunday.

RECAP: The Cardinals are in an awful spot. They have the Seahawks and 49ers coming up next week after this non-conference matchup, so they’ll have trouble focusing for this contest. The sharps are betting on the Titans, who have several strong trends in their favor.

I’d wager a few units on Tennessee, but I’m concerned with the team’s mindset right now. As I mentioned, there’s talk that so many veterans could be cut shortly. How will the Titans be prepared for this matchup if they’re worried about where they’ll be playing or whom they’ll be lining up next to in 2014? I think we could see the same blatant lack of effort from Tennessee as we saw from the Giants last week. The Titans’ playoff aspirations were shattered with last week’s loss, so this veteran squad could mail it in.

FINAL THOUGHTS: The sharps are all over the Titans. Maybe they’re the right side, but then again, the sharps have been betting Tennessee the past few weeks to no avail. I think there could be a quit factor here.

SUNDAY NOTES: Nothing new to add here. Slight lean on the Cardinals.

The Psychology. Edge: Titans.

The Cardinals have to deal with the Seahawks and 49ers after this game, so they’ll be looking ahead.

The Vegas. Edge: Titans.

A decent lean on the Cardinals.

Percentage of money on Arizona: 73% (29,000 bets)

The Trends. Edge: None.

Titans are 21-9 ATS in non-conference home games.

Mike Munchak is 6-12 ATS playing a team with a winning record.

Opening Line: Cardinals -2.5.

Opening Total: 41.5.

Weather: Sunny/clear, 35 degrees. Mild wind, 10 mph.

Week 15 NFL Pick: Cardinals 17, Titans 13
Cardinals -2.5 (0 Units) — Correct; $0
Under 42 (0 Units) — Incorrect; $0
Cardinals 37, Titans 34

New Orleans Saints (10-3) at St. Louis Rams (5-8)
Line: Saints by 6.5. Total: 48.
Las Vegas Hilton Advance Point Spread: Saints -4.5.
Walt’s Calculated Line (After Week 14): Saints -4.5.
Sunday, Dec. 15, 4:25 ET
Discuss Week 15 Games, Talk Trash

The Game. Edge: Saints.

If you didn’t catch it, Emmitt on the Brink is back! Season 6, Episode 14 has been posted – Disaster strikes at Rob Lowe’s family Turkey Bowl.

NEW ORLEANS OFFENSE: Everyone knows that Drew Brees isn’t nearly as effective outside of the Superdome, but at least he’ll be playing indoors this week. In his only other dome road game this season, he went 23-of-33 for 278 yards and two touchdowns against the Falcons in Week 12. I’m sure Brees will be able to maintain that level of production in this contest, if not exceed it.

St. Louis brings tons of pressure on the quarterback, thanks to Robert Quinn and Chris Long. However, the two stud defensive ends may not be huge factors in this contest because an interior pass rush is what bothers Brees the most. Brees gets rid of the ball so quickly that exterior heat doesn’t rattle him. Thus, it’s difficult to imagine him being slowed down.

One thing the Rams do well is stop the rush. In fact, over the past month, they’re No. 1 in terms of shutting down the run, limiting opposing backs to just 2.64 yards per carry. Unfortunately for them, the Saints have proven that they don’t need a strong ground attack for their offense to function properly. They barely ran against the Panthers, yet they scored at will in that contest.

ST. LOUIS OFFENSE: This would have been a great matchup on paper for the Rams’ scoring attack about a month ago. The Saints had one of the worst rankings against the run, and with Zac Stacy pummeling opposing stop units, St. Louis would’ve had its rookie runner ripping off big chunks on the ground, allowing them to control the clock. However, things have changed. The Saints have fixed their rush woes, as they’re actually ranked fifth in terms of YPC allowed over the past month (3.52).

Stacy, who has been in a bit of a funk lately – he managed just 25 yards on 14 carries at Arizona – won’t get much once again, which will force Kellen Clemens into long-yardage situations. As we saw last week, this will prove to be disastrous. Clemens is the worst starting quarterback in the NFL right now, and he needs all of the help he can get. He won’t receive any assistance in this contest, as New Orleans’ fierce pass rush will pick up right where the Cardinals left off when they pinned Clemens to the ground four times last week.

Making matters worse for Clemens, he may not have Tavon Austin at his disposal. Austin is always a threat to break some long gains, but the first-round rookie is dealing with an ankle injury. He has a chance of suiting up, but he could be limited. He missed Wednesday’s practice.

RECAP: Like the Panthers, the Saints are in an awful spot because they have to deal with their most competitive divisional rival again next week. However, I can’t recommend betting St. Louis because Clemens doesn’t stand much of a chance against a solid defense. This is a stay-away game as far as I’m concerned.

FINAL THOUGHTS: The sharps like the Rams, which is no surprise. The Saints are not the same outside of the Superdome, yet they’re being bet on like they are.

SUNDAY NOTES: Chad Millman said the sharps liked the Rams. The bottom line is this: If you’re going to bet the Saints, wait until they’re at home. Why do it on the road when they’re so much worse outside of the Superdome?

The Psychology. Edge: Rams.

This game for New Orleans is sandwiched in between two battles against the Panthers.

The Vegas. Edge: Rams.

No surprise where the money is going.

Percentage of money on New Orleans: 83% (46,000 bets)

The Trends. Edge: Rams.

Jeff Fisher is 39-26 ATS as an underdog since 2006.

Opening Line: Saints -5.5.

Opening Total: 46.5.

Weather: Dome.

Week 15 NFL Pick: Saints 23, Rams 20
Rams +6.5 (0 Units) — Correct; $0
Under 48 (0 Units) — Correct; $0
Rams 27, Saints 16

Green Bay Packers (6-6-1) at Dallas Cowboys (7-6)
Line: Cowboys by 6. Total: 50.
Las Vegas Hilton Advance Point Spread: No Line (Rodgers).
Walt’s Calculated Line (After Week 14): Cowboys -5.5.
Sunday, Dec. 15, 4:25 ET
Discuss Week 15 Games, Talk Trash

The Game. Edge: Cowboys.

A reminder that Jerks of the Week for Dec. 9, 2013 is up, so just click the link. This week’s jerks entry is Weird Food, Terrible Music and Rude Service.

GREEN BAY OFFENSE: As with the Bears-Browns game, there’s no spread posted for this matchup. But there’s actually a legitimate reason for the sportsbooks to hold off on a line here, as opposed to the Chicago-Cleveland tilt. There’s absolutely no difference between Jay Cutler and Josh McCown, but Aaron Rodgers and Matt Flynn are worlds apart.

The latest news regarding Rodgers is that the Packers are pessimistic about their All-Pro quarterback getting cleared for this game. Flynn will likely be the starter, and he should have some success against Dallas’ putrid defense. Only three teams (Redskins, Chiefs, Lions) have surrendered a worse YPA than the Cowboys have over the past month. They allowed Josh McCown to look like the second coming of Joe Montana on Monday night. While Flynn isn’t nearly as good as McCown, he showed that he can be competent against bad defenses, as he went 24-of-32 for 258 yards, one touchdown and an interception against Atlanta last week.

Eddie Lacy also has a good matchup on paper, as the Cowboys are even worse against the run. However, the star rookie is banged up. Battling through an ankle injury, Lacy wasn’t very effective this past week versus one of the NFL’s worst rush defenses. Mike McCarthy told the media that it’s too early to tell if Lacy will be able to suit up.

DALLAS OFFENSE: The Cowboys had a great game plan on this side of the ball early on at Chicago, pounding the rock with DeMarco Murray on nearly every opportunity. Murray almost hit 100 rushing yards by the beginning of the second quarter. However, Dallas inexplicably shied away from the run, and before they knew it, they were getting demolished.

Murray should once again be the focal for Dallas’ offense – and for the entire game this time. The Packers have a bottom-five ground defense, as they just made Steven Jackson look decent for a change. They’ll have trouble bringing down Murray, which will set up some nice short-yardage opportunities for Tony Romo, who won’t even need the help. I don’t see how the Packers can possibly stop him. They blow so many coverages each week. Their defense is atrocious, and they haven’t shown any signs of improving.

RECAP: Check back later for a definitive pick once a spread is posted. I’m probably going to side with Dallas, but stay tuned.

PICK POSTED: I was hoping Aaron Rodgers would play so I could take Packers +7.5 in the Supercontest. Alas, Rodgers is out again.

I don’t have a strong opinion on this game. Betting on Matt Flynn doesn’t seem like a lucrative proposition, while Eddie Lacy is injured. On the other hand, Dallas’ defense blows, and it won’t have Sean Lee again. The sharps actually appear to be siding with the Cowboys, so I’ll just side with them.

SUNDAY NOTES: “That’s quite a disparity.” That’s what one of the Dallas corners said when asked about Matt Flynn starting over Aaron Rodgers. It’s great that the Cowboys are taking Flynn seriously. Like, really. I’m changing my pick, but I’m still not betting this game.

The Psychology. Edge: None.
No edge found.

The Vegas. Edge: Packers.

Action on the Cowboys with Aaron Rodgers out.

Percentage of money on Dallas: 65% (13,000 bets)

The Trends. Edge: Packers.

Tony Romo is 10-0 ATS after the Cowboys have allowed 35+ points.

Cowboys are 10-18 ATS as home favorites in Cowboys Stadium (excluding Thanksgiving).

Tony Romo is 9-21 ATS as a starter after Nov. 30.

Tony Romo is 8-18 ATS as a favorite of -7 or more excluding Thanksgiving (4-2 on Thanksgiving). ???

Opening Line: Cowboys -6.

Opening Total: 47.

Weather: Dome.

Week 15 NFL Pick: Cowboys 24, Packers 20
Packers +6 (0 Units) — Correct; $0
Under 50 (0 Units) — Incorrect; $0
Packers 37, Cowboys 36

Cincinnati Bengals (9-4) at Pittsburgh Steelers (5-8)
Line: Bengals by 2. Total: 43.
Las Vegas Hilton Advance Point Spread: Bengals -1.
Walt’s Calculated Line (After Week 14): Steelers -1.
Sunday, Dec. 15, 8:30 ET
Discuss Week 15 Games, Talk Trash

The Game. Edge: Bengals.

I used to love making fun of GameCenter comments. The people on there were such idiots. There were even perverts like Aaron3619, who always asked chicks for their pictures so that he could carry them around.

I planned to mess with Aaron3619 as a fake user named TexasGirl1234, but NFL.com shut down its GameCenter and implemented Facebook comments instead. This enraged me, so get revenge, I made a fake Facebook account named Mario Migelini to troll people. Other readers followed suit and made fake accounts of their own.

I added a second fake account this year – Vivian Williamson. This is based off of Miss Vivian, a security guard at the Philadelphia International Airport, whom I’ve written about in Jerks of the Week (click the link to read about her).

Unfortunately, some a**holes with no sense of humor decided to flag Miss Vivian as a troller, so I had to make a new account. Kevin Reilly has been born!

Go here to see all of the NFL.com Troll Posts from myself and other trollers.

CINCINNATI OFFENSE: The Bengals are undefeated at home this year, but they’ve looked very vulnerable on the road. Andy Dalton hasn’t been as good in away contests, as you can see by his splits:

The Steelers don’t exactly provide a tough matchup, as they missed so many tackles last week. However, Dalton was unable to torch an anemic San Diego defense two Sundays ago, as he went just 14-of-23 for 190 yards, one touchdown and an interception. If he couldn’t muster much against the Chargers, why would he have any more success against the Steelers, who are still actually ranked 10th against the pass in terms of YPA?

The Bengals figure to have more success on the ground. Pittsburgh just allowed Daniel Thomas to look like Ricky Williams (pre-weed version) last week, and Thomas wasn’t even supposed to play in that contest. BenJarvus Green-Ellis and Giovani Bernard rushed for 113 yards against the Steelers back in a Week 2 matchup, so they could post a similar figure this Sunday.

PITTSBURGH OFFENSE: I’ve been harping about the Bengals’ injuries for week now, but to no avail. Geno Atkins and Leon Hall were both lost for the year, but it didn’t matter because Cincinnati didn’t have much of a drop-off. However, the team recently incurred more injuries. Some offensive linemen are out, while cornerback Terence Newman will be sidelined 2-3 weeks with a knee. Newman will be missed against a Pittsburgh offense that didn’t nearly have as much firepower during the Week 2 tilt.

Antonio Brown didn’t explode until the following week, while Heath Miller wasn’t even on the field for that Cincinnati victory. Meanwhile, the left tackle position was still a major problem back then, which Kelvin Beachum has since solidified. Beachum wasn’t on the field last week, but it’s sounding like he could be available this Sunday.

Le’Veon Bell is another player who didn’t participate in the first meeting between these teams, as he was out with an injury. Bell has been a major upgrade over whatever crap the Steelers possessed at running back in early September (Isaac Redman was involved). Thus, with all of that said, it’s reasonable to expect Pittsurgh to actually score more than 10 points this time.

RECAP: The Steelers are my top pick this week. Here’s why:

1. This spread is off. Pittsburgh and Cincinnati are just 10 spots apart in my NFL Power Rankings, so that doesn’t equate to being six points on a neutral field. Perhaps it would be three or four, which would mean that this spread would be a pick ’em.

2. The Bengals are not a good road team. They lost at Chicago and Cleveland before barely putting away the Thaddeus Lewis-led Bills. They managed to win at Detroit, but only by three after the Lions self-destructed. They then lost at Miami and Baltimore. This was followed by an underwhelming seven-point victory at San Diego.

In other words, their win-loss margin on the road this year looks like this even though none of the teams they’ve played outside of Cincinnati are better than 7-6: -3 -11, 3, 3, -2, -3, 7. With just one victory of more than three points, they’re suddenly expected to triumph by more than a field goal at Pittsburgh?

3. The Bengals are 2-4 straight up and against the spread in Pittsburgh the past six years. They won there last year, but by only three points.

4. The Steelers, who are desperate for a victory, have played well at home this year despite last week’s loss to Miami. They’ve beaten both the Ravens and Lions as hosts. And by the way, even if the Dolphins beat the Patriots, Pittsburgh will still be very much alive for the final wild-card spot. If everyone is 8-8, they hold the ultimate tie-breaker.

5. Roethlisberger has performed well as a home underdog in his career, owning a 4-1 spread record in such situations.

6. There’s a treacherous trend going against the Bengals. Since 1989, teams coming off three-plus covers as favorites struggle (25-56 against the spread) as long as they’re not a big favorite (-10.5 or more). This trend is 2-5 this year, most recently going against the Broncos in their Monday night loss to the Patriots.

7. The sharps are all over Pittsburgh. The public is pounding Cincinnati, predictably.

This will be a four-unit bet for now that I may increase to five later in the week.

FINAL THOUGHTS: I still love the Steelers, who are getting a ton of sharp play. Cincinnati might be the most square bet of the week.

SUNDAY NOTES: The sharps are on the Steelers, which would explain why this spread has dropped to -1 at some books.

The Psychology. Edge: None.
No edge found.

The Vegas. Edge: Steelers.

Everyone is betting on the Bengals.

Percentage of money on Cincinnati: 69% (28,000 bets)

The Trends. Edge: Steelers.

History: Steelers have won 10 of the last 14 meetings (Bengals have won the last 2).

Bengals are 16-31 ATS as a favorite since 2007.

Mike Tomlin is 4-2 ATS in same-season revenge games.

Marvin Lewis is 6-9 ATS in nationally televised regular-season games.

Steelers are 27-13 ATS in December home games since 2000.

Ben Roethlisberger is 33-18 ATS vs. the AFC North.

Ben Roethlisberger is 4-1 ATS as a home underdog.

Opening Line: Bengals -2.5.

Opening Total: 40.5.

Weather: Snow, 27 degrees. Mild wind, 15 mph.

Week 15 NFL Pick: Steelers 20, Bengals 17
Steelers +2.5 (4 Units) — Correct; +$400
Under 40.5 (0 Units) — Incorrect; $0
Steelers 30, Bengals 20

Baltimore Ravens (7-6) at Detroit Lions (7-6)
Line: Lions by 6. Total: 49.
Las Vegas Hilton Advance Point Spread: Lions -4.
Walt’s Calculated Line (After Week 14): Lions -4.5.
Monday, Dec. 16, 8:30 ET
Discuss Week 15 Games, Talk Trash

The Game. Edge: Lions.

This week on ESPN, we’re going to have Mike Tirico and Jon Gruden calling the shots instead of the great preseason homers like Kevin Reilly and Don Tollefson, inept ESPN guys Emmitt, Herman Edwards and Matt Millen, annoying guys like Charles Davis and senile guys like Bob Greise. Here’s what it would sound like if those six clowns (and some special guests) were calling this game:

Reilly: Welcome to the city of Detroit, the Motor City, where tonight, the Lions take on the Ravens! Hey, what are all of these people doing in the booth?

Random Lions Fan: We warned Matt Millen that he’s not welcome back in Detroit! He disobeyed our orders, and now it’s time to make him pay for ruining our franchise! Tie him up, boys!

Millen: I love it when boys tie me up!

Random Lions Fan: We’ll see how much you’ll love it when we make you have sex with… her!

A beautiful blonde woman walks into the booth.

Tollefson: Hey, baby, I’m Matthew Stafford, quarterback of the Detroit Lions. I can prove it’s me – I wear a No. 9 jersey. Only Matthew Stafford would know that. How about you come back to my hotel room and cook and clean naked for me? It’s all you women are good for, so I know you’re thrilled at the prospect of doing all of this. So, let’s shoot for midnight, OK?

Random Lions Fan: Shut up, perv, she’s not here to have sex with you!

Tollefson: Hey, do you know whom you are talking to? I am Don Tollefson, and I can sell you timeshares for only $109.99 per month! They can be anywhere – near the beach, in the mountains at the North Pole, you name it. Just write me a check for $109.99, plus a first-time set-up fee for $1,000, and we’ll get this pup set up!

Emmitt: Domino, I do not understand how you can selled time shareds. Time do not really exist because you can not see him. Do you ever see a time store? No, because he do not exist!

Davis: Emmitt, a timeshare is the arrangement whereby several joint owners have the right to use a property as a vacation home under a time-sharing agreement. Emmitt, did you know that the term “timeshare” was coined in England in the early 1960s? Emmitt, would you like to guess when the first timeshare started in the U.S.? It was 1974, Emmitt. Do you know which company started it here in America, Emmitt? Give up, Emmitt? It was the Caribbean International Corporation. Do you know where they were based, Kevin? Want to take a guess, Kevin? Can’t get this one, Kevin? It was based in Fort Lauderdale, Florida, Kevin. Did you know there are lots of timeshare options, Kevin? Let’s talk about the difference between fixed-week ownership and floating-week ownership, Kevin. Let’s begin with…

Reilly: Charles Davis, I am going to strangle you. Why were you addressing me after talking to Emmitt in the first place? And I thought you died in an explosion last week! Why are you not dead!?

Griese: I stepped on the bomb, and I picked it up and threw it at my enemies, and it exploded.

Reilly: So this actually happened to you in real life, and you weren’t playing Mario Brothers? Ugh, you senile idiot, why’d you have to waste an opportunity to kill Charles Davis!?

Edwards: IT’S NOT MARIO BROTHERS! NOT MARIO BROTHERS! NOT ONE MARIO BROTHER! NOT THE SECOND MARIO BROTHER! THE NAME NEEDS A SUPER! MARIO BROTHERS CAME FIRST IN THE ARCADE! THEN SUPER MARIO BROTHERS! THE ONE WHERE YOU STEP ON TURTLES! THE ONE WHERE YOU GO IN PIPES! THE ONE WHERE YOU BEAT BOWSER! THAT’S SUPER MARIO BROTHERS! NOT MARIO BROTHERS! IT’S SUPER MARIO BROTHERS! BUT THE BOMB WASN’T IN MARIO BROTHERS! NO, IT WAS NOT! IT DEFINITELY WAS NOT! I PLAYED ALL EIGHT WORLDS AND NO BOMB! NO BOMB AT ALL! CLOSEST THING WAS THE BULLET BILL! BUT BULLET BILL’S NOT THE BOMB! IT’S NOT BULLET BOMB! IT’S NOT BOMB BILL! IT’S NOT BILL BOMB! IT’S NOT BOMB BULLET! THE BOMB WAS IN SUPER MARIO BROTHERS 2! THERE’S A TWO AT THE END! MAKE SURE YOU SAY THE TWO! GOTTA SAY THE TWO! IF YOU DON’T SAY THE TWO, THERE’S NO BOMB! WON’T BE A BOMB WITHOUT THE TWO! HAVE TO HAVE A TWO TO HAVE A BOMB! NEED THE TWO TO MAKE THE BOMB! SOMEONE SET UP US THE BOMB! BUT THAT’S A DIFFERENT GAME! NO MARIO BROTHERS IN THAT GAME! NO SUPER EITHER! NO TWO EITHER! INSTEAD IT’S… uhh… WHAT GAME WAS HERM TALKING ABOUT AGAIN? Uhh… umm…

Random Lions Fan: Would all of you weirdos shut up!? Let’s get down to business. For ruining our beloved Lions, Matt Millen will be forced to have sex with this beautiful woman! Pull his pants down, and mount him like the stallions he loves to ride, blondie!

Millen: NOOOOOOO!!! Anything but having sex with a woman! Please, make it stop! Make it stop! Tolly, can you insert a kielbasa into my backside right now? Please! PLEASE!!!

Tollefson: No. You wouldn’t buy any of my timeshares, and I am not happy I do not get to have sex with this worthless woman.

Millen: NOOOOOOO!!! No sex with women, aghhhhh!!!

Reilly: I think this will be our best broadcast yet, even though Charles Davis is alive! We’ll be back after a word from our local sponsors!

DETROIT OFFENSE: Though the Lions will be battling a much tougher defense this week, you have to imagine that they’ll be thrilled to be out of the snow and inside their nice, cozy dome. They won’t have to worry about any botched snaps or any star players suffering injuries in pre-game warmups. It’s good to be home.

Bush said that he expects to play Monday night. This could be typical player arrogance, but then again, his injury isn’t that severe. Plus, he’ll have extra time for it to heal. If Bush suits up, he’ll be effective on his fast track against a Baltimore defense that has been a bit leaky against the run lately. The Ravens are 17th against the rush in terms of YPC (4.29) over the past month, which showed when Toby Gerhart burst into the end zone during one of Minnesota’s two late touchdowns last week.

The Ravens, however, are still very effective in terms of stopping aerial attacks. They’re seventh in that regard over the past four weeks (6.41). They have a strong pass rush, but that won’t rattle Matthew Stafford, who has been sacked on fewer occasions than any regular starting quarterback, save for Peyton Manning. Plus, it’s not like Baltimore has anyone who can contain Calvin Johnson.

BALTIMORE OFFENSE: The Ravens received a big boost this past week when Dennis Pitta returned to the field. Joe Flacco failed to connect with Pitta on his first three tries, and the tight end had just one catch prior to intermission, but he went off in the second half. This is obviously huge for Baltimore; Flacco had just one reliable target beforehand, so he’s obviously thrilled to have a reliable second player to throw to.

The Lions have major problems in their secondary right now, so Flacco will perform well – as long as he has time in the pocket, that is. Detroit has a ferocious front that can put tons of heat on the quarterback. This is obviously bad news for Flacco, as the poor play of his offensive line is well documented. Only six teams have surrendered more sacks than Baltimore this year.

The Ravens’ line has more issues opening up holes for Ray Rice. We all just saw LeSean McCoy dash through the snow for a franchise single-game record, but Detroit had been pretty competent against rushing attacks heading into that crazy game. I’ll chalk that up to being a weather-related fluke, so I’ll be pretty surprised if Rice has any sort of success on the ground, especially considering his year-long struggles.

RECAP: I don’t have a lean either way on this game. The spread is a bit too high – I have it at -4.5 – so I’m going to take Baltimore. I’m not too confident with this selection, however.

FINAL THOUGHTS: Wow, this spread has really fallen in the final couple of hours. When I posted my Vegas update at 5:30, there were some +5.5s, with +6 still available at Bovada. Now, I’m seeing +4s and +4.5s across the board. There is late, sharp action on the Ravens. I still don’t like them enough to bet them, especially with a loss of spread value, but it appears as though they’re the right side.

The Psychology. Edge: None.
No edge found.

The Vegas. Edge: None.
Equal action.

Percentage of money on Baltimore: 50% (86,000 bets)

The Trends. Edge: None.

Opening Line: Lions -6.

Opening Total: 48.

Weather: Dome.

Week 15 NFL Pick: Lions 27, Ravens 24
Ravens +6 (0 Units) — Correct; $0
Over 49 (0 Units) — Incorrect; $0
Ravens 18, Lions 16

Week 15 NFL Picks – Early Games
San Diego�at�Denver, Washington�at�Atlanta, Chicago�at�Cleveland, Arizona�at�Tennessee, Houston�at�Indianapolis, New Orleans�at�St. Louis, New England�at�Miami, Philadelphia�at�Minnesota, Seattle�at�NY Giants, Buffalo�at�Jacksonville, San Francisco�at�Tampa Bay

Prop/Teaser/Parlay Picks
A list of some of my favorite team/player prop picks this week
(Offense & defensive ROY picks to be counted whenver winners are announced.) Picks carried over on a week-to-week basis will be in black.

Teaser: Eagles -0.5, Steelers +8.5 (1 Unit) — Incorrect; -$110

NFL Picks - Nov. 20

2025 NFL Mock Draft - Nov. 20

NFL Power Rankings - Nov. 19

Fantasy Football Rankings - Sept. 4

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Note: For legality purposes, this Web site does not promote or advocate gambling. This is solely for entertainment purposes only.

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2012 Season NFL Picks Against The Spread: 130-145-8, 47.3% (-$7,445)
2013 Season NFL Picks Against The Spread: 144-131-8, 52.4% (+$7,825)
2014 Season NFL Picks Against The Spread: 143-133-7, 51.8% (-$1,885)
2015 Season NFL Picks Against The Spread: 134-138-12, 49.3% (-$3,215)
2016 Season NFL Picks Against The Spread: 148-127-10, 53.8% (+$780)
2017 Season NFL Picks Against The Spread: 137-140-8, 49.5% (-$4,300)
2018 Season NFL Picks Against The Spread: 140-134-14, 51.3% (+$845)
2019 Season NFL Picks Against The Spread: 149-128-9, 53.6% (+$1,200)
2020 Season NFL Picks Against The Spread: 138-124-7, 52.7% (+$9,350)
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2022 Season NFL Picks Against The Spread: 154-134-8, 53.5% (+$9,860)
2023 Season NFL Picks Against The Spread: 144-141-7, 50.5% (-$7,285)

2002 Season 2-3 Unit NFL Picks: 41-49-2 (45.6%)
2003 Season 2-3 Unit NFL Picks: 52-51-2 (50.5%)
2004 Season 2-3 Unit NFL Picks: 65-44-3 (59.6%)
2005 Season 2-3 Unit NFL Picks: 77-61-1 (55.8%)
2006 Season 2-3 Unit NFL Picks: 65-61-4 (51.6%)
2007 Season 2-3 Unit NFL Picks: 83-59-5, 58.5% (+$4,110)
2008 Season 2-3 Unit NFL Picks: 44-57-3, 43.6% (-$3,510)
2009 Season 2-3 Unit NFL Picks: 49-35-3, 58.3% (+$2,260)
2010 Season 2-3 Unit NFL Picks: 51-38-4, 57.3% (+$3,180)
2011 Season 2-3 Unit NFL Picks: 44-51-3, 46.3% (-$2,715)
2012 Season 2-3 Unit NFL Picks: 45-50-2, 47.4% (-$2,130)
2013 Season 2-3 Unit NFL Picks: 38-42, 47.5% (-$2,890)
2015 Season 2-3 Unit NFL Picks: 47-44-1, 51.6% (-$820)
2016 Season 2-3 Unit NFL Picks: 42-35-3, 54.5% (+$475)
2017 Season 2-3 Unit NFL Picks: 32-40-3, 43.8% (-$2,395)
2018 Season 2-3 Unit NFL Picks: 52-41-2, 55.9% (+$2,670)
2019 Season 2-3 Unit NFL Picks: 44-36-2, 55.0% (+$655)
2020 Season 2-3 Unit NFL Picks: 47-43-3, 52.2% (-$1,965)
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2022 Season 2-3 Unit NFL Picks: 56-44-2, 56.0% (+$1,860)
2023 Season 2-3 Unit NFL Picks: 44-40-3, 52.4% (+$285)

2002 Season 4-5 Unit NFL Picks: 11-12 (47.8%)
2003 Season 4-5 Unit NFL Picks: 16-13-1 (55.2%)
2004 Season 4-5 Unit NFL Picks: 18-11 (62.1%)
2005 Season 4-5 Unit NFL Picks: 25-22-1 (53.2%)
2006 Season 4-5 Unit NFL Picks: 21-29-1 (42.0%)
2007 Season 4-5 Unit NFL Picks: 35-30-2, 53.8% (+$420)
2008 Season 4-5 Unit NFL Picks: 39-26-2, 60.0% (+$4,055)
2009 Season 4-5 Unit NFL Picks: 29-26, 52.7% (+$330)
2010 Season 4-5 Unit NFL Picks: 32-22, 59.3% (+$4,790)
2011 Season 4-5 Unit NFL Picks: 14-14, 50.0% (-$1,260)
2012 Season 4-5 Unit NFL Picks: 14-21, 40.0% (-$3,650)
2013 Season 4-5 Unit NFL Picks: 17-9-3, 65.4% (+$2,970)
2015 Season 4-5 Unit NFL Picks: 17-16-2, 51.5% (-$1,120)
2016 Season 4-5 Unit NFL Picks: 21-22-5, 48.8% (-$1,465)
2017 Season 4-5 Unit NFL Picks: 20-22-1, 47.6% (-$1,595)
2018 Season 4-5 Unit NFL Picks: 27-32-1, 45.8% (-$4,735)
2019 Season 4-5 Unit NFL Picks: 37-27-2, 57.8% (+$2,185)
2020 Season 4-5 Unit NFL Picks: 37-22-1, 62.7% (+$5,515)
2021 Season 4-5 Unit NFL Picks: 32-32-1, 50.0% (-$725)
2022 Season 4-5 Unit NFL Picks: 41-30-1, 57.8% (+$3,725)
2023 Season 4-5 Unit NFL Picks: 32-27-1, 54.2% (-$1,310)

2001 Season Over-Under: 3-2 (60.0%)
2002 Season Over-Under: 121-91-3 (57.1%)
2003 Season Over-Under: 126-132-2 (48.8%)
2004 Season Over-Under: 139-124-4 (52.9%)
2005 Season Over-Under: 117-145-4 (44.7%)
2006 Season Over-Under: 129-132-5 (49.4%)
2007 Season Over-Under: 136-145-3, 48.4% (-$1,900)
2008 Season Over-Under: 137-125-6, 52.3% (+$860)
2009 Season Over-Under: 128-135-4, 48.7% (-$3,195)
2010 Season Over-Under: 128-135-5, 48.7% (-$5)
2011 Season Over-Under: 131-131-5, 50.0% (+$135)
2012 Season Over-Under: 125-121-5, 50.8% (+$30)
2013 Season Over-Under: 132-130-5, 50.4% (-$340)
2015 Season Over-Under: 143-119-5, 54.6% ($0)
2016 Season Over-Under: 123-141-1, 46.6% (+$95)
2017 Season Over-Under: 136-139-2, 49.5% (+$640)
2018 Season Over-Under: 118-128-3, 48.0% (-$225)
2019 Season Over-Under: 126-133-4, 48.6% (-$50)
2020 Season Over-Under: 141-122-6, 53.6% ($0)
2021 Season Over-Under: 132-151-3, 46.6% ($0)
2022 Season Over-Under: 133-149-2, 47.2% (-$225)
2023 Season Over-Under: 145-135-3, 51.8% (+$200)

2007 Season Prop/ML/Teaser/Parlay Picks: +$1,035
2008 Season Prop/ML/Teaser/Parlay Picks: +$1,775
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2011 Season Prop/ML/Teaser/Parlay Picks: +$590
2012 Season Prop/ML/Teaser/Parlay Picks: -$1,685
2013 Season Prop/ML/Teaser/Parlay Picks: +$2,245
2015 Season Prop/ML/Teaser/Parlay Picks: -$855
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2017 Season Prop/ML/Teaser/Parlay Picks: -$510
2018 Season Prop/ML/Teaser/Parlay Picks: +$1,495
2019 Season Prop/ML/Teaser/Parlay Picks: -$1,715
2020 Season Prop/ML/Teaser/Parlay Picks: +$4,975
2021 Season Prop/ML/Teaser/Parlay Picks: +$3,455
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2023 Season Prop/ML/Teaser/Parlay Picks: -$2,565

2006 NFL Picks of the Month: 3-3 (50%)
2007 NFL Picks of the Month: 3-3, 50.0% (-$400)
2008 NFL Picks of the Month: 6-1, 85.7% (+$3,720)
2009 NFL Picks of the Month: 3-2, 60.0% (+$640)
2010 NFL Picks of the Month: 2-4, 33.3% (-$1,810)
2011 NFL Picks of the Month: 5-2, 71.4% (+$1,870)
2012 NFL Picks of the Month: 3-2, 60.0% (+$560)
2013 NFL Picks of the Month: 6-0, 100% (+$3,900)
2014 NFL Picks of the Month: 2-4, 33.3% (-$1,350)
2015 NFL Picks of the Month: 3-3, 50.0% (-$100)
2016 NFL Picks of the Month: 5-1, 83.3% (+$2,780)
2017 NFL Picks of the Month: 4-2, 66.7% (+$1,040)
2018 NFL Picks of the Month: 4-3, 57.1% (-$640)
2019 NFL Picks of the Month: 3-3-1, 50.0% (-$625)
2020 NFL Picks of the Month: 3-2, 60.0% (+$665)
2021 NFL Picks of the Month: 2-3, 40.0% (-$920)
2022 NFL Picks of the Month: 3-4, 42.9% (-$1,615)
2023 NFL Picks of the Month: 2-5, 28.6% (-$2,550)

Career NFL Picks Against The Spread: 3,510-3,234-202, 52.0% (+$19,125)
Career 2-3 Unit NFL Picks: 1,129-1,011-57 (52.8%)
Career 4-5 Unit NFL Picks: 571-502-25 (53.2%)
Career Over-Under: 2,941-2,916-76 (50.2%)
Career Second-Half NFL Picks: 23-16-1 (59.0%)
Career NFL Picks of the Month: 47-37-1 (56.0%)

My Team-by-Team ATS Record
This section shows how well I do when picking each team this year. The purpose is to see how well I read each team. Pushes are not displayed. Winning/losing streak in parentheses.

Cowboys: 6-3	Bears: 5-5	Bucs: 6-4	49ers: 6-4
Eagles: 5-5	Lions: 9-1	Falcons: 6-5	Cardinals: 8-2
Giants: 3-6	Packers: 6-3	Panthers: 4-6	Rams: 5-5
Redskins: 5-5	Vikings: 4-6	Saints: 5-6	Seahawks: 6-3

Bills: 4-7	Bengals: 2-9	Colts: 6-5	Broncos: 7-4
Dolphins: 4-6	Browns: 3-7	Jaguars: 3-7	Chargers: 6-3
Jets: 6-5	Ravens: 5-5	Texans: 5-6	Chiefs: 4-5
Patriots: 6-3	Steelers: 4-6	Titans: 6-3	Raiders: 5-5

Divisional: 21-23 (2011-23: 608-561)	2x Game Edge: 18-14 (2011-23: 401-387)	2x Motivation Edge: 31-25 (2011-23: 510-441)	2x Spread Edge: 21-30 (2011-23: 239-211)
2x Vegas Edge: 33-47 (2011-23: 448-446)	2x Trend Edge: 12-8 (2011-23: 321-293)	Double Edge: 13-16 (2011-23: 207-185)	Triple Edge: 4-8 (2011-23: 33-37)