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Vegas betting action updated Dec. 2, 5:05 p.m. ET. Follow @walterfootball
Go to Week 13 NFL Picks - Early Games
Atlanta Falcons (2-8) vs. Buffalo Bills (4-7)
Line: Bills by 4. Total: 48.
Las Vegas Hilton Advance Point Spread:
Walt's Calculated Line (After Week 12):
Sunday, Dec. 1, 4:05 ET
At Rogers Centre, Toronto
Discuss Week 13 Games, Talk Trash
The Game. Edge: Bills.
This summer, I ran a Mafia game on the Web site called Penn State Sex Scandal Mafia
. You can click the link to read the introduction and see the list of players. I'll add to this page throughout the season, listing roles and talking about funny things that happened during the game.
Why am I doing this? Well, I wanted to post this on the main section of this Web site so that the mainstream media people who have sand in their vages will pick up on this and complain that I'm being insensitive.
Oh, and by the way, we have other Mafia games going on right now in the Mafia Forum
. Mafia is a blast, so come and join the fun.
I mentioned earlier that Geno Smith is a much better quarterback at home. The same could be said for E.J. Manuel. I'd go on about how much better Manuel is at Ralph Wilson Stadium, but this contest will take place in Toronto's Rogers Centre. This officially counts as a "home game" for Buffalo, but it's more of a disadvantage because the Bills seldom show any life north of the border, as they own a 1-4 straight-up record there.
Manuel still should be able to play well considering his competition. The Falcons haven't been able to stop anyone since losing a bunch of players to injury. They're dead last against the pass in terms of YPA (8.65), and only four teams have fewer sacks than them. Atlanta actually just has five sacks in the past month, which is the fewest amount in the NFL over that span. Manuel, who will have Stevie Johnson and Robert Woods at his disposal again, won't face much resistance.
The same could be said for the Buffalo running backs. The Falcons are only a little better against the run, ranking 29th in that department (4.82 YPC). C.J. Spiller and Fred Jackson have had the luxury of resting up, so they'll be able to expose Atlanta with their fresh legs.
The Falcons have been pretty anemic on this side of the ball as well, but they finally showed signs of life this past Thursday. They were able to establish Steven Jackson on the ground, setting up Matt Ryan in manageable situations. New Orleans' defense is atrocious against the run, however, so getting Jackson going wasn't too difficult. The Bills are better versus the run, but only by default; they're 19th in that department in terms of YPC (4.18).
Atlanta will need Jackson going because Buffalo's strongest defensive trait is its pass rush. They have more sacks than all but four teams in the NFL, and they trail the leader (Baltimore) by only two. The Falcons have pass-protection issues - both offensive tackles are major liabilities, and neither stands a chance against Mario Williams - so the Bills should be able to rattle Ryan and disrupt Atlanta's aerial attack.
Remember when the Texans went all out to beat the Colts? That was their Super Bowl. They came up short and haven't covered a spread since. Well, the Falcons are in the same spot. The players even called their clash against the Saints "Super Bowl Thursday." They tried as best as they could, but they still lost. Thus, I don't see how they can possibly muster enough energy to battle a lowly non-conference opponent in another country.
Having said that, I'd like the Bills so much more if they were playing at home. Instead, they'll take the field in front of a lifeless Toronto crowd, where they are just 1-3-1 against the spread. Toronto has actually been a proven disadvantage for them, so even though I believe they're the right side, I can't recommend any sort of wager on them.
The public is pounding the Bills, but I'm not sure if the sharps like the Falcons. Either way, it seems as though Vegas will have a liability on Atlanta.
This spread has risen to -4 or -4.5. That's not enough for me to get on Atlanta, so I'll continue to pass.
The Psychology. Edge: Bills.
The Falcons called their game against the Saints "Super Bowl Thursday." They lost. What do they have to play for? I'd give the Bills two stars here, but they'll be playing in front of a lifeless Toronto crowd.
The Vegas. Edge: Falcons.
People like the Bills all of a sudden.
Percentage of money on Buffalo: 72% (20,000 bets)
The Trends. Edge: None.
Bills are 25-18 ATS against losing teams since 2006.
Bills are 1-3 ATS in Canada.
Opening Line: Bills -3.5.
Opening Total: 48.
Week 13 NFL Pick: Bills 24, Falcons 17
Bills -4 (0 Units) -- Incorrect; $0
Under 48 (0 Units) -- Incorrect; $0
Falcons 34, Bills 31
St. Louis Rams (5-6) at San Francisco 49ers (7-4)
Line: 49ers by 7.5. Total: 40.5.
Las Vegas Hilton Advance Point Spread: 49ers -9.5.
Walt's Calculated Line (After Week 12): 49ers -12.
Sunday, Dec. 1, 4:05 ET
Discuss Week 13 Games, Talk Trash
The Game. Edge: 49ers.
We have a survivor winner! Check out the final 14:
The Lions lost. The Texans lost. The Chiefs lost. The sole person who picked Carolina, Joshsports60, has triumphed!
It's crazy that the Survivor Pool has been resolved this quickly. Last year, we had to go to the Super Bowl, with one person picking the Ravens and the other choosing the 49ers.
ST. LOUIS OFFENSE: I never thought I'd say this, but Kellen Clemens might be overrated. Crazy, right? But Clemens has received so much credit for the Rams' current run of success that I've heard the notion that there's not much of a difference between him and Sam Bradford. Now that's definitely crazy.
St. Louis has notched two big victories lately, slaying the Colts and Bears In both contests, the team enjoyed two things: fluky long touchdowns by Tavon Austin and powerful runs by Zac Stacy. The latter probably won't be happening in this contest because Stacy was dinged with a head injury Sunday. St. Louis will have to roll with Benny Cunningham instead, who won't have nearly as much success this week as he did against Chicago because unlike the Bears, the 49ers can actually stop the run; they're tied for 12th against it in terms of YPC (3.95).
Austin won't have any long scores either because the 49ers' stop unit is too good to allow that to happen to them. The Colts and Bears can't stop anyone, but Austin trying to do that at San Francisco is another story. The 49ers generate great pressure on the quarterback - especially with Aldon Smith back at full strength - so the limited Clemens won't have much of a chance.
SAN FRANCISCO OFFENSE: Colin Kaepernick has endured much criticism this season. Some of it has been warranted. Kaepernick isn't using his legs as much this year, and he has struggled at times, particularly when Vernon Davis has been out of the lineup.
Davis is healthy, however, and Kaepernick will be welcoming back another weapon to the field in Michael Crabtree. The 49ers have everyone back now, so they'll be more difficult to contain. The Rams will have trouble keeping them in check, as their secondary isn't very good, ranking 29th against the pass in terms of YPA (8.16). Their ability to pressure the quarterback keeps them from being completely inept versus aerial attacks, but Kaepernick is protected fairly well, as only seven teams have allowed fewer sacks than San Francisco this season.
The Rams are only slightly better against the run, ranking 22nd in that department (4.22 YPC). The 49ers had trouble establishing Frank Gore on Monday night, but that's because Washington stacked the line of scrimmage with eight men in the box the entire evening. St. Louis may utilize the same strategy, but that'll put a huge burden on its secondary, especially with Crabtree returning to the lineup.
RECAP: The 49ers are my second-favorite play of the week for the following reasons:
1. This spread is too low. I have it at -12. It's at -8 right now because the public believes in this St. Louis team. I don't. As discussed, their two victories have come via fluke plays.
2. Speaking of the public, casual bettors are pounding the Rams. It's too early to tell where the sharps will be going, but I'll be shocked if they aren't wagering on San Francisco.
3. The 49ers are much better than St. Louis, and they have such great momentum; teams coming off a Monday night blowout victory cover the spread at a high rate.
4. Betting on Jim Harbaugh is always a smart decision; the 49ers are 12-6 against the spread as a favorite of 3.5-plus with him. He's the new Bill Belichick.
FINAL THOUGHTS: The sharps seem split on these teams, but the public is taking the Rams. San Francisco is still my second-favorite play of the week.
SUNDAY NOTES: This is another disagreement. Chad Millman said the sharps are on the Rams, but I think he might have been making an assumption because he said the public will bet the Rams. That's not the case though, as the public is taking St. Louis. The sharps are on San Francisco.
The Psychology. Edge: None.
No edge found.
The Vegas. Edge: None.
Percentage of money on St. Louis: 57% (46,000 bets)
The Trends. Edge: 49ers.
History: 49ers have won 12 of the last 16 meetings excluding the 2012 tie.
Jeff Fisher is 39-24 ATS as an underdog since 2006.
Rams are 24-36 ATS on grass since 2001.
Jeff Fisher is 4-11 ATS on the West Coast since 1999.
49ers are 12-6 ATS as a home favorite of 3.5+ under Jim Harbaugh.
Opening Line: 49ers -9.5.
Opening Total: 41.5.
Week 13 NFL Pick: 49ers 31, Rams 16
49ers -7.5 (4 Units) -- Correct; +$400
Over 40.5 (0 Units) -- Incorrect; $0
49ers 23, Rams 13
Denver Broncos (9-2) at Kansas City Chiefs (9-2)
Line: Broncos by 6.5. Total: 50.
Las Vegas Hilton Advance Point Spread: Broncos -3.5.
Walt's Calculated Line (After Week 12): Broncos -1.
Sunday, Dec. 1, 4:25 ET
Discuss Week 13 Games, Talk Trash
The Game. Edge: Broncos.
If you didn't catch it, Emmitt on the Brink is back! Season 6, Episode 12 has been posted - Josh Freeman is cut again, and all of his secrets are exposed.
DENVER OFFENSE: The Chiefs received some good news Wednesday when Tamba Hali announced that he would play Sunday. Hali suffered an ankle sprain against the Chargers, but it turned out to be pretty minor. Justin Houston won't be available because of a bum elbow, but Hali being present is huge because Kansas City will need all of the help it can get to slow down Peyton Manning.
Manning struggled Sunday night, but the nasty conditions can be blamed for that. Things appear to be much calmer in Kansas City this weekend; it's still going to be cold, but it'll atleast be in the 40s. There won't be any wind to knock down Manning's passes again either. Even better, Manning may have Julius Thomas back, so he'll have all of his passing weapons at his disposal. Manning went 24-of-40 for 323 yards and a touchdown in his Week 11 victory over the Chiefs.
Having said that, there are two things going against Manning in this matchup. First, Knowshon Moreno might not be on the field. He was on crutches following Sunday night's loss to New England, and he missed Wednesday's practice. Moreno is huge for Denver's offense because of his pass-protection ability. He is also the most dependable of the runners; Montee Ball and Ronnie Hillman have struggled with fumbles this season. Second, the Chiefs will be able to make adjustments to their game plan. This rematch is so soon, so they'll be able to fix their issues and perhaps actually put heat on Manning this time.
KANSAS CITY OFFENSE: The Chiefs aren't the only team with defensive injury issues heading into this contest. Denver has a problem in its secondary, as Dominique Rodgers-Cromartie may miss this game; he didn't practice Wednesday. Rodgers-Cromartie has been Denver's top cornerback this season, so he'll be missed. Champ Bailey will be back in time to take his place, but Bailey is not the same player who dominated the NFL for more than a decade. Bailey actually struggled earlier in the year.
The Chiefs will definitely have an easier time passing the ball without seeing Rodgers-Cromartie on the field, but they'll still have to deal with Von Miller and the rest of Denver's pass rush. The Broncos sacked Alex Smith three times in Week 11, which wasn't a big surprise because the Chiefs have problems with pass protection. Only seven teams have allowed more sacks than the Chiefs this year.
As a consequence, Kansas City will have to rely on Jamaal Charles heavily to control the clock and keep Manning off the field. Charles had just a mediocre outing at Denver - 16 carries, 78 rushing yards - but he'll have more success this Sunday because defensive tackle Kevin Vickerson was knocked out for the year. Vickerson excelled at stopping the rush. First-round rookie Sylvester Williams took his place against the Patriots, but didn't fare very well. The Chiefs will also need to get the ball to Charles more in the passing game. The fact that he had just two receptions in the prior meeting is inexcusable.
RECAP: This may surprise you, given how relatively low I've had the Chiefs in my NFL Power Rankings this year, but I like them a lot in this matchup. Here's why:
1. I mentioned earlier that I like taking divisional opponents that lost if the rematch isn't far apart from the first meeting. If you want actual data to back that up, here it is: Teams that lose to a divisional opponent as an underdog are 17-5 against the spread (dating back to 1989) if they play that same squad in two weeks as an underdog. The Chiefs will be able to make the proper adjustments.
2. The Broncos are emotionally drained following their overtime loss to the Patriots. That game took a lot out of them, and now they have to travel after that. This is a terrible spot.
3. This spread is out of whack. My calculated number is Broncos -1, which meshes with what it was when the two teams clashed in Denver (-8). Why is this spread -5.5? That's way too high. That would translate to -11.5 if the Broncos were at home, and that doesn't make much sense. As a reference, Denver was -12.5 against the Redskins back in Week 8, so this is saying that the Chiefs are just one point better than Washington. That just defies logic.
4. Vegas is going to have a HUGE liability on the Broncos. There's so much action coming in on them. The public is pounding the road favorite after realizing that the Chiefs aren't as good as their record was. Well, they were never a top-five NFL team, but they aren't bad enough to be getting 5.5 at home against a slightly overrated Denver squad that is just 3-4 against the spread (with some lucky covers) following a hot start.
FINAL THOUGHTS: The sharps LOVE the Chiefs. So do I.
SUNDAY NOTES: Chad Millman told Colin Cowherd that the sharps bet the Broncos at -3.5. I'm not seeing the same thing. Different sharps are on the Chiefs.
The Psychology. Edge: None.
No edge found.
The Vegas. Edge: Chiefs.
So much money on the Broncos.
Percentage of money on Denver: 66% (53,000 bets)
The Trends. Edge: None.
History: Home Team has won 18 of the last 25 meetings.
Peyton Manning is 37-25 ATS as a road favorite since 2001.
Broncos are 2-17 SU in December games at Arrowhead.
Chiefs are 11-28 ATS as home underdogs of 1-5.5 points since 2007.
Opening Line: Broncos -3.
Opening Total: 47.5.
Week 13 NFL Pick: Broncos 24, Chiefs 23
Chiefs +6.5 (3 Units) -- Incorrect; -$330
Under 50 (0 Units) -- Incorrect; $0
Broncos 35, Chiefs 28
Cincinnati Bengals (7-4) at San Diego Chargers (5-6)
Line: Bengals by 1. Total: 48.5.
Las Vegas Hilton Advance Point Spread: Pick.
Walt's Calculated Line (After Week 12): Chargers -2.5.
Sunday, Dec. 1, 4:25 ET
Discuss Week 13 Games, Talk Trash
The Game. Edge: Bengals.
A reminder that Jerks of the Week for Nov. 25, 2013 is up, so just click the link. This week's jerks entry is Pizza Gluttony.
SAN DIEGO OFFENSE: Philip Rivers was awesome through three quarters of the Kansas City game. He spent the entire first period succumbing to fierce pressure. Things changed, however, because Tamba Hali and Justin Houston suffered injuries. To be fair, the Chargers weren't at full strength either; left tackle King Dunlap still hadn't returned from a neck injury, forcing D.J. Fluker to move to left tackle and the horrific Jeromey Clary to kick back outside to right tackle. Dunlap is still considered questionable, and San Diego will need him unless it happens to be lucky enough to have the Cincinnati pass-rushers go down. Dunlap did not practice Wednesday.
The Bengals are missing Geno Atkins, but they still have a great defense, thanks to Carlos Dunlap and Michael Johnson, both of whom bring plenty of heat from the outside. Having King Dunlap protecting Rivers' blind side will be crucial because Fluker and Clary won't be able to block those stud ends, and they probably won't be fortunate enough to battle backups again.
Rivers will struggle to find time in the pocket if the King is out again, but he'll still have success with moving the chains on occasion because he's just that good and has a solid supporting cast. Rivers may also have the luxury of handing the ball off to Ryan Mathews for some big gains; the Bengals surrendered 100-plus rushing yards to two of their previous three opponents prior to the bye, as they clearly miss Atkins.
CINCINNATI OFFENSE: Even though the Bengals are without two key defenders in Atkins and Leon Hall, they are still so much better than San Diego's stop unit. The Chargers' defense is so bad that Matvei texted me that one-liner about the coordinator being a scarecrow. The unit is just so bad on so many levels.
For instance, San Diego is 30th against the pass in terms of YPA (8.42). Alex Smith basically did whatever he wanted to against the Chargers, so why can't Andy Dalton duplicate that performance? He has better weapons and a superior offensive line. A week off to study San Diego doesn't hurt either.
The Chargers are also 30th in terms of stopping the rush. At least they're consistent. They just gave up 118 rushing yards on only 15 carries to the Chiefs. The Bengals won't have much trouble establishing their ground attack. BenJarvus Green-Ellis will actually look good, while Giovani Bernard probably will break several long runs.
RECAP: San Diego is in a bad spot, coming off such an emotional, last-second victory over Kansas City. However, there are three reasons I'm not betting the Bengals: First, this game means much more to San Diego than it does the Bengals. Second, these teams are about even, so this spread is off a bit; we're just not getting proper value with Cincinnati. Third, the public is on San Diego, while the sharps like the Bengals.
I'm still picking the Bengals, but I'm not wagering any money on either squad.
FINAL THOUGHTS: The sharps like the Bengals, while the public is going with San Diego. I don't really have a strong lean on this game.
SUNDAY NOTES: The sharps have made this game switch favorites. I hate it when that happens, but I didn't have action on the game anyway.
The Psychology. Edge: Bengals.
The Chargers are coming off an emotional, last-second win at Kansas City. However, this game means so much more to them than it does to Cincinnati.
The Vegas. Edge: Bengals.
All aboard the Chargers' bandwagon!
Percentage of money on San Diego: 65% (22,000 bets)
The Trends. Edge: Chargers.
Bengals are 15-31 ATS as a favorite since 2007.
Philip Rivers is 25-15 ATS as a starter after Nov. 30 (10-4 ATS as an underdog).
Opening Line: Bengals -1.5.
Opening Total: 45.
Week 13 NFL Pick: Bengals 24, Chargers 22
Bengals -1 (0 Units) -- Correct; $0
Under 48.5 (0 Units) -- Correct; $0
Bengals 17, Chargers 10
New York Giants (4-7) at Washington Redskins (3-8)
Line: Redskins by 1. Total: 45.
Las Vegas Hilton Advance Point Spread: Redskins -1.5.
Walt's Calculated Line (After Week 12): Giants -1.
Sunday, Dec. 1, 8:30 ET
Discuss Week 13 Games, Talk Trash
The Game. Edge: Giants.
I used to love making fun of GameCenter comments. The people on there were such idiots. There were even perverts like Aaron3619, who always asked chicks for their pictures so that he could carry them around.
I planned to mess with Aaron3619 as a fake user named TexasGirl1234, but NFL.com shut down its GameCenter and implemented Facebook comments instead. This enraged me, so get revenge, I made a fake Facebook account named Mario Migelini to troll people. Other readers followed suit and made fake accounts of their own.
I added a second fake account this year - Vivian Williamson. This is based off of Miss Vivian, a security guard at the Philadelphia International Airport, whom I've written about in Jerks of the Week (click the link to read about her).
Unfortunately, some a**holes with no sense of humor decided to flag Miss Vivian as a troller, so I had to make a new account. Kevin Reilly has been born!
Go here to see all of the NFL.com Troll Posts from myself and other trollers.
WASHINGTON OFFENSE: The Redskins are such a mess on both sides of the ball. Robert Griffin isn't healthy, so he can't move around as well as he normally would. He also isn't getting much help from his receivers. Of course, he's only making things worse by blaming others and having a bad attitude. He probably shouldn't even be playing, as 49ers' linebacker Ahmad Brooks opined following the 49ers' easy victory over San Francisco.
Griffin endured some pass-protection issues from his offensive line in that blowout loss. He took four sacks, which is a high number considering that he's still mobile enough to get away from most pressure. The Giants have the second-fewest amount of sacks in the NFL, but their pass rush has been better lately; they've accumulated 12 sacks in their previous four games, which is a respectable amount. They even got to Tony Romo four times, so they should be able to put plenty of heat on Griffin.
The Redskins still figure to be able to move the chains if they establish the run. Doing so shouldn't be that difficult. Thanks to a pedestrian linebacking corps, the Giants just surrendered 106 rushing yards on just 17 carries to the Cowboys. Washington ran pretty well against the 49ers on Monday night, so it should be able to get Alfred Morris and Roy Helu going.
NEW YORK OFFENSE: The Giants will have much more success moving the chains than their opponent in this divisional tilt. The Redskins have a putrid defense that struggles against both the run and the pass. They're especially brutal versus the latter, as only the Falcons are worse at stopping aerial attacks (8.60 YPA). The secondary is garbage and has allowed every quarterback it has faced to play like a Pro Bowler. This includes the struggling Colin Kaepernick on Monday night and the woeful Christian Ponder a few Thursdays ago.
The Redskins appeared as though they were stout against the run when they limited Frank Gore and the 49ers to just 56 yards on the ground on 24 carries. However, they were blatantly loading eight men into the box on nearly every snap, daring Kaepernick to beat them downfield. They may not utilize the same strategy against the Giants because they may fear Eli Manning and his superior supporting cast much more.
Washington does at least frequently apply pressure on the quarterback. That's what saves it from having the worst defense in the NFL. Brian Orakpo and Ryan Kerrigan will get to Manning, but it'll only be occasionally because Manning won't be in too many long-yardage situations.
RECAP: The Redskins are a good fade because they're in shambles right now. Teams coming off Monday night blowout losses tend to do poorly in terms of covering, so that's going against Washington as well.
I like the Giants a good bit. This would actually be a higher bet if it weren't for the Clete Blakeman Rule. There's so much action on the Giants already, and there will be even more when people chase their losses on Sunday. Vegas will have a huge liability on New York, opening the door for some Clete Blakeman-like shenanigans.
FINAL THOUGHTS: The sharps are all over the Redskins. I still like the Giants, but I'm dropping this to one unit. This is a weird game where some strange things could happen.
SUNDAY NOTES: The favorite switched here as well. Again, I hate it when that happens. The sharps have pounded the Redskins, so because of all of this, I'm dropping this to zero units.
The Psychology. Edge: None.
No edge found.
The Vegas. Edge: Redskins.
No surprise that the public is fading the Redskins again.
Percentage of money on New York: 82% (24,000 bets)
The Trends. Edge: None.
History: Giants have won 10 of the last 14 meetings (Redskins have won 3 of the last 4).
Giants are 37-17 ATS on the road since 2006 as long as they're not favored by 3.5 or more.
Eli Manning is 28-16 ATS as an underdog since 2007. ???
Mike Shanahan is 8-4 ATS after a loss on Monday Night Football.
Opening Line: Giants -2.
Opening Total: 45.
Week 13 NFL Pick: Giants 34, Redskins 27
Giants +1 (0 Units) -- Correct; $0
Over 46 (0 Units) -- Incorrect; $0
Giants 24, Redskins 17
New Orleans Saints (9-2) at Seattle Seahawks (10-1)
Line: Seahawks by 5.5. Total: 48.
Las Vegas Hilton Advance Point Spread: Seahawks -4.
Walt's Calculated Line (After Week 12): .
Monday, Dec. 2, 8:30 ET
Discuss Week 13 Games, Talk Trash
The Game. Edge: Seahawks.
This week on ESPN, we're going to have Mike Tirico and Jon Gruden calling the shots instead of the great preseason homers like Kevin Reilly and Don Tollefson, inept ESPN guys Emmitt, Herman Edwards and Matt Millen, annoying guys like Charles Davis and senile guys like Bob Greise. Here's what it would sound like if those six clowns (and some special guests) were calling this game:
Reilly: Welcome to the city of Seattle, home of the 12th Man! We have a gem of a game tonight with the Seahawks taking on the Saints. The only way it would be better is if the Eagles and Nick "Johnny U. 2.0" Foles would be on the field with them. I think my Eagles would beat both teams at the same time!
Emmitt: Roxy, I am confusion. Very confusion. I always have been confusion about the nicked name 12th Men. Where do the 12th Men come from? I always watch Seahawk game on the box with picture on it, and I only see 11 guy on the football field for the Seahawk at all time.
Reilly: Emmitt, the reason they call it the 12th Man is because a player once died on the field and he haunts the other teams that play in this stadium. That's why my Eagles lost here the last time they visited on that Thursday night. If only the Ghostbusters were real! I'd call them. Maybe we can nuke this horrible Seattle city instead.
Edwards: THERE BETTER NOT BE ANY GHOST! THERE BETTER NOT BE ANY SPIRIT! THERE BETTER NOT BE ANY POLTERGEIST! THERE BETTER NOT BE ANY SPECTER! THERE BETTER NOT BE APPARITION! HERM WILL FIGHT THE GHOST! HERM WILL FIGHT THE SPIRIT! HERM WILL FIGHT THE POLTERGEIST! HERM WILL FIGHT THE SPECTER! HERM WILL FIGHT THE APPARITION! WHY DOES HERM HATE THE GHOSTS? I'LL TELL YOU WHY HERM HATES THE GHOSTS! I'LL TELL YOU WHY! I'LL SHOW YOU WHY! I'LL LET YOU KNOW! HERE IT IS! HERE'S WHY HERM HATES THE GHOSTS! HERE'S WHY HERM HATES THE SPIRITS! THE GHOSTS DON'T WANT TO WIN! THEY WANT TO HAUNT! THEY DON'T WANT TO WIN! YOU PLAY TO WIN THE GAME! HELLO? YOU PLAY TO WIN THE GAME! THE GHOST DON'T PLAY TO WIN THE GAME! THEY PLAY TO HAUNT THE GAME! WINNING'S NOT HAUNTING! HAUNTING'S NOT WINNING! WINNING IS WINNING! HAUNTING IS HAUNTING! THEY'RE NOT THE SAME! THEY'RE DIFFERENT! THEY'RE DIFFERENT BECAUSE... because... I FORGOT WHAT'S DIFFERENT! WHAT WAS HERM TALKING ABOUT? HERM IS... umm... uhh...
Reilly: Herm, I think you're getting as senile as Bob Griese.
Griese: A ghost visited me last night. He said he was a friendly ghost, and we went on an adventure.
Reilly: Great, now Bob thinks Casper the Friendly Ghost is real.
Tollefson: He is real, Kevin. At least that's what I tell women that I lead back to my hotel room so they can cook and clean for me naked. You see, Kevin, women are idiots. If you tell them that you're friends with Casper the Friendly Ghost, they'll believe you. Women are good for two things, and two things only: Cooking naked and cleaning naked.
Reilly: Who cares about women? Guys, can we get back to the game, and specifically how my Eagles were screwed because of the 12th Man?
Millen: It's funny that you should say "screwed by the 12th Man," Kevin...
Reilly: BECAUSE of the 12th...
Millen: The 12th Man is glorious. Whenever I make a trip to Seattle, I gather 10 100-percent USDA Men and bring them back to my hotel room. We have some preliminary fun with our kielbasas, but then something incredible happens: A 12th man, who might be 1,000-percent USDA Man, emerges out of nowhere, and he rides the 11 of us all night long as if we were young stallions. Indeed, Seattle is my favorite city in the world, save for Konstanz, Germany. Have I ever told you about my adventures in Konstanz, Kevin?
Reilly: Good God, please don't. I don't want to hear it. There's probably not a Konstanz either.
Davis: That's actually not correct, Kevin. Believe it or not, there are exactly 100 cities starting with the letter "K" in Germany, Kevin. Let's go in alphabetical order, shall we, Kevin? Let's begin with Kaarst, Kevin. Did you know that in the 2004 communal elections, Franz-Josef Moormann was elected mayor, Kevin? Next on the list is Kahla, Kevin. That's in the Saale Holzland district, Kevin. It's near the river Saale, Kevin. Let's move on to Kaisersesch, Kevin. Do you know who the mayor of that city is, Kevin? Let's see how well you know your German politics, Kevin. Give up, Kevin? Kaisersesch's mayor is Josef Waltermann, Kevin.
Millen: Ah, Josef Waltermann. Now there's a young stallion I could ride all night long. My kielbasa sextant said that he's 333.3-percent USDA Man.
Reilly: Idiots! One of these days I'm going to poison all of you! We'll be back after a word from our local sponsors!
NEW ORLEANS OFFENSE: What's with all of these suspensions? This is seriously becoming a chronic problem (get it chronic?). Walter Thurmond was just suspended. He's normally a backup, but his absence will be felt because starter Brandon Browner is also sidelined. Fortunately for the Seahawks, Richard Sherman is still available, and the Saints have just one quality receiver in Marques Colston, who hasn't really done anything this season.
New Orleans moves the chains primarily on throws to Jimmy Graham and dump-offs to Darren Sproles. However, the Seahawks should be prepared for this; they have stud safeties to limit Graham, while Sproles may not be 100 percent coming off an ankle injury. They also have a dynamic pass rush that should be able to rattle Drew Brees on occasion.
One area where the Saints may have success is the run. The Seahawks were proficient in stopping the rush earlier in the year, but they've surrendered a poor 4.93 YPC to opposing backs in their previous four games. Mark Ingram has actually rushed the ball well of late, so getting him going would take some of the pressure off Brees, who just doesn't play as well outdoors.
SEATTLE OFFENSE: Rob Ryan has done a tremendous job of improving the Saints' defense, but the unit still has major problems trying to stop the run. Only the Cowboys, Bears, Chargers and Falcons are worse versus the rush. They're so bad that they had trouble containing Steven Jackson on Thursday night. If that was the case, how can they possibly deal with Marshawn Lynch, who is unquestionably the best running back they've faced all season?
The Saints won't only just have to worry about Lynch; they'll have to deal with Russell Wilson navigating the pocket and scrambling downfield. Wilson had issues with pass protection earlier in the season, which would've been troublesome against New Orleans' improved pass rush. However, Wilson has both of his tackles back in the lineup, which will be a huge boost going forward.
Wilson should have ample time in the pocket to find his targets downfield. This includes Percy Harvin, who also returned to action in Week 11. Harvin didn't play much against his former team, but you have to think that Pete Carroll and his coaching staff spent these two weeks trying to figure out how to get the ball to Harvin.
RECAP: This is my top selection of the week. This spread was -4 a week ago, and I considered it to be my December NFL Pick of the Month. We're not getting as much value now, but I still love Seattle. Here's why:
1. The public likes the Saints, while the sharps are on the Seahawks. The sharps aren't always right, but you usually want to side with them.
2. Seattle's homefield is worth six points alone. The Seahawks are just unstoppable as hosts, which is why my calculated spread is as high as -9. That means, by my estimation, this line is four points off.
3. Conversely, the Saints aren't nearly as good on the road. Just this year, they nearly lost to the Buccaneers and Falcons, and they went down to the Jets and Patriots (back when the latter was struggling). Their one quality win was at Chicago, which seemed much better at the time. I feel like everyone remembers how New Orleans demolished the Cowboys back in Week 10 - Chris Berman is still talking about those 40 first downs - but people are ignoring that this was done in the Superdome.
4. I love betting on great teams coming off byes. The Seahawks certainly qualify. They've been preparing for this game for a while, as it's a national showcase game where they can make a statement by proving how great they are.
FINAL THOUGHTS: Chad Millman said that some sharps are on the Saints, while others are taking the Seahawks. The line has moved up to -6 or -6.5 in most places this evening, which is good news if you're a Seattle backer. I still like the Seahawks for five units at -6, but for only four units at -6.5.
The Psychology. Edge: None.
No edge found.
The Vegas. Edge: Seahawks.
Slight action on the Saints.
Percentage of money on New Orleans: 63% (78,000 bets)
The Trends. Edge: Seahawks.
Drew Brees is 33-25 ATS as an underdog.
Drew Brees is 37-22 ATS off back-to-back wins.
Seahawks are 22-8 ATS as home favorites since 2007.
Opening Line: Seahawks -4.5.
Opening Total: 46.
Week 13 NFL Pick: Seahawks 27, Saints 17
Seahawks -5.5 (5 Units) -- Correct; +$500
Under 48 (0 Units) -- Correct; $0
Seahawks 34, Saints 7
Week 13 NFL Picks - Early Games
A list of some of my favorite team/player prop picks this week
(Offense & defensive ROY picks to be counted
whenver winners are announced.) Picks carried over on a week-to-week basis will be in black.
Teaser: 49ers -1.5, Seahawks +0.5 (1 Unit) -- Correct; +$100
NFL Picks - Jan. 16
2021 NFL Mock Draft - Jan. 13
Fantasy Football Rankings - Jan. 11
2022 NFL Mock Draft - Nov. 15
NFL Power Rankings - Nov. 14
2020 College Football Recruiting Rankings - April 14
2020 NBA Mock Draft - Sept. 27
Note: For legality purposes, this Web site does not promote or advocate gambling. This is solely for entertainment purposes only.
Last Week's NFL Picks Against The Spread (Week 18, 2020): 1-5 (-$1,430)
Last Week's 2-3 Unit NFL Picks (Week 18, 2020): 0-2 (-$575)
Last Week's 4-5 Unit NFL Picks (Week 18, 2020): 0-2 (-$855)
Last Week Over-Under (Week 18, 2020): 2-3-1 ($0)
Last Week's Prop/ML/Teaser/Parlay Picks (Week 18, 2020): $0
2020 NFL Picks of the Month: 2-2, 50.0% (-$135)
2020 Season NFL Picks Against The Spread: 132-123-6, 52.6% (+$3,280)
2020 Season 2-3 Unit NFL Picks: 43-42-3, 50.6% (-$2,650)
2020 Season 4-5 Unit NFL Picks: 37-22-1, 62.7% (+$5,515)
2020 Season Over-Under: 137-119-6, 53.5% ($0)
2020 Season Prop/ML/Teaser/Parlay Picks: +$375
1999 Season NFL Picks Against The Spread: 27-41-3 (39.7%)
2000 Season NFL Picks Against The Spread: 128-123-8 (51.0%)
2001 Season NFL Picks Against The Spread: 127-122-7 (51.0%)
2002 Season NFL Picks Against The Spread: 123-136-7 (47.5%)
2003 Season NFL Picks Against The Spread: 146-126-8 (53.7%)
2004 Season NFL Picks Against The Spread: 157-123-8 (56.1%)
2005 Season NFL Picks Against The Spread: 156-126-11 (55.3%)
2006 Season NFL Picks Against The Spread: 151-135-9 (52.8%)
2007 Season NFL Picks Against The Spread: 162-135-10, 54.5% (+$3,585)
2008 Season NFL Picks Against The Spread: 148-140-7, 51.4% (+$6,105)
2009 Season NFL Picks Against The Spread: 151-124-9, 54.9% (+$4,235)
2010 Season NFL Picks Against The Spread: 144-131-8, 52.4% (+$5,880)
2011 Season NFL Picks Against The Spread: 137-133-12, 50.7% (-$1,335)
2012 Season NFL Picks Against The Spread: 130-145-8, 47.3% (-$7,445)
2013 Season NFL Picks Against The Spread: 144-131-8, 52.4% (+$7,825)
2014 Season NFL Picks Against The Spread: 143-133-7, 51.8% (-$1,885)
2015 Season NFL Picks Against The Spread: 134-138-12, 49.3% (-$3,215)
2016 Season NFL Picks Against The Spread: 148-127-10, 53.8% (+$780)
2017 Season NFL Picks Against The Spread: 137-140-8, 49.5% (-$4,300)
2018 Season NFL Picks Against The Spread: 140-134-14, 51.3% (+$845)
2019 Season NFL Picks Against The Spread: 149-128-9, 53.6% (+$1,200)
2002 Season 2-3 Unit NFL Picks: 41-49-2 (45.6%)
2003 Season 2-3 Unit NFL Picks: 52-51-2 (50.5%)
2004 Season 2-3 Unit NFL Picks: 65-44-3 (59.6%)
2005 Season 2-3 Unit NFL Picks: 77-61-1 (55.8%)
2006 Season 2-3 Unit NFL Picks: 65-61-4 (51.6%)
2007 Season 2-3 Unit NFL Picks: 83-59-5, 58.5% (+$4,110)
2008 Season 2-3 Unit NFL Picks: 44-57-3, 43.6% (-$3,510)
2009 Season 2-3 Unit NFL Picks: 49-35-3, 58.3% (+$2,260)
2010 Season 2-3 Unit NFL Picks: 51-38-4, 57.3% (+$3,180)
2011 Season 2-3 Unit NFL Picks: 44-51-3, 46.3% (-$2,715)
2012 Season 2-3 Unit NFL Picks: 45-50-2, 47.4% (-$2,130)
2013 Season 2-3 Unit NFL Picks: 38-42, 47.5% (-$2,890)
2015 Season 2-3 Unit NFL Picks: 47-44-1, 51.6% (-$820)
2016 Season 2-3 Unit NFL Picks: 42-35-3, 54.5% (+$475)
2017 Season 2-3 Unit NFL Picks: 32-40-3, 43.8% (-$2,395)
2018 Season 2-3 Unit NFL Picks: 52-41-2, 55.9% (+$2,670)
2019 Season 2-3 Unit NFL Picks: 44-36-2, 55.0% (+$655)
2002 Season 4-5 Unit NFL Picks: 11-12 (47.8%)
2003 Season 4-5 Unit NFL Picks: 16-13-1 (55.2%)
2004 Season 4-5 Unit NFL Picks: 18-11 (62.1%)
2005 Season 4-5 Unit NFL Picks: 25-22-1 (53.2%)
2006 Season 4-5 Unit NFL Picks: 21-29-1 (42.0%)
2007 Season 4-5 Unit NFL Picks: 35-30-2, 53.8% (+$420)
2008 Season 4-5 Unit NFL Picks: 39-26-2, 60.0% (+$4,055)
2009 Season 4-5 Unit NFL Picks: 29-26, 52.7% (+$330)
2010 Season 4-5 Unit NFL Picks: 32-22, 59.3% (+$4,790)
2011 Season 4-5 Unit NFL Picks: 14-14, 50.0% (-$1,260)
2012 Season 4-5 Unit NFL Picks: 14-21, 40.0% (-$3,650)
2013 Season 4-5 Unit NFL Picks: 17-9-3, 65.4% (+$2,970)
2015 Season 4-5 Unit NFL Picks: 17-16-2, 51.5% (-$1,120)
2016 Season 4-5 Unit NFL Picks: 21-22-5, 48.8% (-$1,465)
2017 Season 4-5 Unit NFL Picks: 20-22-1, 47.6% (-$1,595)
2018 Season 4-5 Unit NFL Picks: 27-32-1, 45.8% (-$4,735)
2019 Season 4-5 Unit NFL Picks: 37-27-2, 57.8% (+$2,185)
2001 Season Over-Under: 3-2 (60.0%)
2002 Season Over-Under: 121-91-3 (57.1%)
2003 Season Over-Under: 126-132-2 (48.8%)
2004 Season Over-Under: 139-124-4 (52.9%)
2005 Season Over-Under: 117-145-4 (44.7%)
2006 Season Over-Under: 129-132-5 (49.4%)
2007 Season Over-Under: 136-145-3, 48.4% (-$1,900)
2008 Season Over-Under: 137-125-6, 52.3% (+$860)
2009 Season Over-Under: 128-135-4, 48.7% (-$3,195)
2010 Season Over-Under: 128-135-5, 48.7% (-$5)
2011 Season Over-Under: 131-131-5, 50.0% (+$135)
2012 Season Over-Under: 125-121-5, 50.8% (+$30)
2013 Season Over-Under: 132-130-5, 50.4% (-$340)
2015 Season Over-Under: 143-119-5, 54.6% ($0)
2016 Season Over-Under: 123-141-1, 46.6% (+$95)
2017 Season Over-Under: 136-139-2, 49.5% (+$640)
2018 Season Over-Under: 118-128-3, 48.0% (-$225)
2019 Season Over-Under: 126-133-4, 48.6% (-$50)
2007 Season Prop/ML/Teaser/Parlay Picks: +$1,035
2008 Season Prop/ML/Teaser/Parlay Picks: +$1,775
2009 Season Prop/ML/Teaser/Parlay Picks: +$865
2010 Season Prop/ML/Teaser/Parlay Picks: -$200
2011 Season Prop/ML/Teaser/Parlay Picks: +$590
2012 Season Prop/ML/Teaser/Parlay Picks: -$1,685
2013 Season Prop/ML/Teaser/Parlay Picks: +$2,245
2015 Season Prop/ML/Teaser/Parlay Picks: -$855
2016 Season Prop/ML/Teaser/Parlay Picks: -$275
2017 Season Prop/ML/Teaser/Parlay Picks: -$510
2018 Season Prop/ML/Teaser/Parlay Picks: +$1,495
2019 Season Prop/ML/Teaser/Parlay Picks: -$1,715
2006 NFL Picks of the Month: 3-3 (50%)
2007 NFL Picks of the Month: 3-3, 50.0% (-$400)
2008 NFL Picks of the Month: 6-1, 85.7% (+$3,720)
2009 NFL Picks of the Month: 3-2, 60.0% (+$640)
2010 NFL Picks of the Month: 2-4, 33.3% (-$1,810)
2011 NFL Picks of the Month: 5-2, 71.4% (+$1,870)
2012 NFL Picks of the Month: 3-2, 60.0% (+$560)
2013 NFL Picks of the Month: 6-0, 100% (+$3,900)
2014 NFL Picks of the Month: 2-4, 33.3% (-$1,350)
2015 NFL Picks of the Month: 3-3, 50.0% (-$100)
2016 NFL Picks of the Month: 5-1, 83.3% (+$2,780)
2017 NFL Picks of the Month: 4-2, 66.7% (+$1,040)
2018 NFL Picks of the Month: 4-3, 57.1% (-$640)
2019 NFL Picks of the Month: 3-3-1, 50.0% (-$625)
Career NFL Picks Against The Spread: 2,989-2,760-179, 52.0% (+$13,585)
Career 2-3 Unit NFL Picks: 953-858-49 (52.6%)
Career 4-5 Unit NFL Picks: 452-396-23 (53.3%)
Career Over-Under: 2,459-2,413-66 (50.5%)
Career Second-Half NFL Picks: 22-15-1 (61.1%)
Career NFL Picks of the Month: 44-29-1 (60.3%)
My Team-by-Team ATS Record
This section shows how well I do when picking each team this year. The purpose is to see how well I read each team. Pushes are not
displayed. Winning/losing streak in parentheses.
Cowboys: 11-5 (2014-19: 47-50)
Bears: 6-11 (2014-19: 45-48)
Bucs: 7-9 (2014-19: 44-45)
49ers: 8-8 (2014-19: 53-44)
Eagles: 8-8 (2014-19: 55-46)
Lions: 9-6 (2014-19: 53-42)
Falcons: 9-7 (2014-19: 55-45)
Cardinals: 10-6 (2014-19: 45-50)
Giants: 3-13 (2014-19: 52-41)
Packers: 12-4 (2014-19: 54-46)
Panthers: 13-3 (2014-19: 47-52)
Rams: 5-12 (2014-19: 53-41)
Redskins: 7-8 (2014-19: 47-48)
Vikings: 9-7 (2014-19: 51-45)
Saints: 7-10 (2014-19: 49-50)
Seahawks: 8-9 (2014-19: 43-56)
Bills: 10-7 (2014-19: 52-42)
Bengals: 9-5 (2014-19: 42-52)
Colts: 8-7 (2014-19: 50-45)
Broncos: 9-7 (2014-19: 45-48)
Dolphins: 12-4 (2014-19: 47-46)
Browns: 7-9 (2014-19: 46-44)
Jaguars: 4-11 (2014-19: 41-55)
Chargers: 8-6 (2014-19: 46-49)
Jets: 8-8 (2014-19: 50-40)
Ravens: 5-11 (2014-19: 48-47)
Texans: 10-5 (2014-19: 48-47)
Chiefs: 12-4 (2014-19: 56-50)
Patriots: 6-10 (2014-19: 55-53)
Steelers: 7-10 (2014-19: 56-43)
Titans: 10-7 (2014-19: 49-47)
Raiders: 7-9 (2014-19: 43-52)
Divisional: 43-47 (2011-19: 405-394)
2x Game Edge: 63-60 (2011-19: 213-210)
2x Motivation Edge: 45-30 (2011-19: 347-288)
2x Spread Edge: 42-33 (2011-19: 61-55)
2x Vegas Edge: 25-22 (2011-19: 320-335)
2x Trend Edge: 18-13 (2011-19: 250-228)
Double Edge: 27-21 (2011-19: 122-107)
Triple Edge: 5-4 (2011-19: 21-18)