NFL Picks Against the Spread: Week 3, 2013

NFL Picks (Preseason 2013): 10-6 (+$720)
NFL Picks (Week 1, 2013): 4-11-1 (-$1,290)
NFL Picks (Week 2, 2013): 6-10 (+$130)

NFL Picks (2013): 20-27-1 (-$440)
NFL Picks (2012): 130-145-8 (-$5,760)
NFL Picks (2011): 137-133-12 (-$1,925)
NFL Picks (2010): 144-131-8 (+$6,080)
NFL Picks (2009): 151-124-9 (+$3,370)
NFL Picks (2008): 136-125-6 (+$4,330)
If you don’t quite understand the line, total or anything else, go to my Sports Betting FAQ.

Vegas betting action updated Sept. 23, 4:59 p.m. ET. Follow @walterfootball for updates.

Go to Week 3 NFL Picks – Late Games

Kansas City Chiefs (2-0) at Philadelphia Eagles (1-1)
Line: Eagles by 3.5. Total: 51.
Las Vegas Hilton Advance Point Spread: Eagles -5.
Walt’s Calculated Line (After Week 2): Eagles -1.
Thursday, Sept. 19, 8:25 ET
Discuss Week 3 Games, Talk Trash

The Game. Edge: Chiefs.

WEEK 2 RECAP: I got screwed by the Saints (**) but lucked out with the Bills (though that front-door covering field goal made me super mad), so overall, it was an above-average week. I went 6-10 for +$130. It could’ve been better, but I’m just happy to be back in the black again.

(**) Anyone who watched Saints-Bucs knows there’s no doubt that New Orleans was the right side; the team should have won by 14-20 points and would’ve covered the spread at least seven out of 10 times against the Buccaneers in that very matchup. The Saints outgained Tampa by 100 yards, while the Buccaneers didn’t score a single offensive point. New Orleans was 19-1 against the spread when holding the opponent to 14 points or fewer in the Sean Payton era, with the lone exception being another 16-14 road victory over the Panthers. If you were to tell me the Bucs would score just 14 points last week, I would’ve bet 5,000 units on the Saints. It’s a crime they didn’t cover.

It was right side, wrong result for the Saints, but I was completely wrong about the Rams. They missed out on a cover by just 1.5 points, but Atlanta should’ve been the play. In fact, that’s something I want to talk about…

Falcons -6, Packers -7, Ravens -7: What do all of these covering teams have in common besides the fact that I went against all of them in Week 2? They are all quality squads that were 0-1 and desperate for a victory while playing against an inferior opponent. Given the statistic Jean Fugett mentioned, it’s no surprise that these coaches had their teams performing on a high level to avoid an 0-2 start.

I added this dynamic into my database so I can factor it in next year. I’m all about learning from my errors, so even though I lost three units on the Rams, I’m happy I discovered and chronicled something that can help me in the future.

Week 3 NFL Picks will be posted all day Wednesday. Follow me @walterfootball for updates.

KANSAS CITY OFFENSE: Andy Reid is back in Philadelphia. He has returned to the city that hated his offense. The city that always wanted him to run the ball more. The city that dreaded his clock management, stubbornness and epically boring news conferences. The city that ran him out of town despite him taking the beloved Eagles to five NFC Championship. Reid now wants revenge, and his new players are determined to make sure he achieves it.

Philadelphia’s dreadful defense will make things easy for Reid. The Eagles have so many issues with their stop unit, as they looked completely helpless against the Chargers. They surrendered 419 passing yards to Philip Rivers despite the fact that San Diego lost its No. 1 receiver to injury midway through the contest. Their cornerbacks couldn’t cover anyone, while pressuring the quarterback didn’t work.

All the Chiefs do is pass, so Philadelphia will struggle to stop them. The team missed so many tackles last week, so it makes you wonder how they’ll prevent the especially elusive Jamaal Charles from breaking several long gains.

PHILADELPHIA OFFENSE: The Eagles have been explosive on Chip Kelly’s side of the ball through two games, but they haven’t been tested yet. Both the Redskins and Chargers have atrocious defenses that will be ranked near the bottom of the league by season’s end. The Chiefs, on the other hand, have a dynamic stop unit that just limited the Cowboys to 16 points despite missing one of its main cornerbacks.

I’m anxious to see how this matchup plays out. My suspicion is that the Eagles will have some successful drives but will either bog down in the red zone or commit turnovers on many others. The Chiefs have a great pass rush that will rattle Philadelphia’s quarterback; everyone knows about Tamba Hali and Justin Houston, but nose tackle Dontari Poe has been a monster this year. Also, remember that Reid coached QBDK for several seasons, so no one knows his tendencies better than him.

The Chiefs also have the linebackers and secondary to make sure tackles on Philadelphia’s speedy playmakers. Kansas City as a whole missed just six tackles versus Dallas. By comparison, the Eagles whiffed on 12 players last week.

RECAP: The Eagles are in a tough spot. There will be a ton of pressure on them to beat their former coach. They’re also playing their third game in 11 days. Considering how quickly they move, I’m sure they’ll be gassed by the second half.

The Chiefs, on the other hand, have been talking about how much they want to win this one for Reid. I think they’ll get it done. I like Kansas City a lot, but I’m going to restrict myself to zero units because of my dreadful Thursday night track record.

FINAL THOUGHTS: I suck on Thursdays. I like the Chiefs a lot – they’re the better team and have more motivation – but my dubious history on this particular night of the week will keep me from betting. In fact, you might want to take the Eagles.

The Psychology. Edge: Chiefs.

It’s hard to figure this one out. Andy Reid’s new players will want to win this one for him, but the crazy Philadelphia crowd will be calling for blood. There could be pressure on the Eagles. They also loved Reid – he did resurrect QBDK’s career, after all – so they won’t have the same fury as the fans.

The Vegas. Edge: None.
Equal action.

Percentage of money on Philadelphia: 52% (73,000 bets)

The Trends. Edge: None.

Opening Line: Eagles -3.

Opening Total: 50.

Weather: .

Week 3 NFL Pick: Chiefs 23, Eagles 22
Chiefs +3.5 (0 Units) — Correct; $0
Under 51 (0 Units) — Correct; $0
Chiefs 26, Eagles 16

San Diego Chargers (1-1) at Tennessee Titans (1-1)
Line: Titans by 3. Total: 43.5.
Las Vegas Hilton Advance Point Spread: Titans -3.5.
Walt’s Calculated Line (After Week 2): Chargers -1.
Sunday, Sept. 22, 1:00 ET
Discuss Week 3 Games, Talk Trash

The Game. Edge: Chargers.

VEGAS RECAP: Sportsbooks beat down the public for the second week in a row. Only three of the highly bet teams covered (Ravens, Raiders, Bengals). Vegas won with the Chargers, Dolphins, Vikings and Buccaneers.

I’ll be updating the Vegas betting action all week, as usual. I’ll notify you of any updates @walterfootball.

SAN DIEGO OFFENSE: I have to say that it’s pretty refreshing to see Philip Rivers rejuvenated again. It looked like Rivers was finished the past two seasons, but he’s definitely back to his old self (or at least close to it). It’s amazing what the absence of Norv Turner can do for someone.

It’s been more surprising how the offensive line has held up. The unit has allowed two sacks thus far despite playing J.J. Watt and the Texans and Trent Cole and the Eagles. The only weak link on the front appears to be right guard Jeromey Clary, and he hasn’t been brutal or anything in his new position. It’s important for the blockers to hold up in this contest because the Titans have seven sacks through two contests, led by stud defensive tackle Jurrell Casey.

The Titans have some liabilities that Rivers can expose if he has the time in the pocket. I have no idea why linebacker Moise Fokou is playing as much as he is. He has been absolutely brutal. I also lack confidence in safety Michael Griffin and cornerback Alterraun Verner. They both played well at Houston, but considering their track records, I don’t trust them. DeAndre Hopkins torched Tennessee late in the game last week, so Rivers’ improved receiving corps should have success.

TENNESSEE OFFENSE: Speaking of defensive liabilities, the Chargers have plenty of them. The secondary is full of holes; outside of Eric Weddle, no one in the defensive backfield should be starting. This bodes well for Jake Locker, but it’s not like Locker is this awesome quarterback who can take full advantage of this mismatch. He’s very inconsistent, and the coaching staff has stressed for him to utilize safer options to avoid turnovers. Locker can dink and dunk his way down the field against the Chargers, but this type of offensive approach makes it difficult to sustain drives.

Of course, Locker may not have to do much if Chris Johnson goes off. CJ2K has yet to break the century plateau this season, but that could be attributed to the tough defenses he has faced (Pittsburgh, Houston). The Chargers obviously don’t belong in that class. However, they’re not completely helpless versus the rush either.

San Diego has surrendered 4.34 yards per carry through two contests. That’s not a very good figure, but it’s not terrible considering the stop unit has been tasked with bringing down Arian Foster, Ben Tate and LeSean McCoy. Another thing to keep in mind is the return of Manti Te’o. He’ll practice Wednesday for the first time and could be in the lineup to make his NFL debut. Te’o won’t be on the field for all of the snaps – he came off the field in sub packages during the preseason – but he’ll play the run for two downs much better than backup Bront Bird has been doing.

RECAP: The Chargers shouldn’t be taken lightly at all. They had a 21-point lead on the Texans the opening Monday night, and they then overcome an early start time and a short week to defeat the Eagles on the road. I think they’re slightly better than the Titans.

With that in mind, you’d think I’d make my calculated line Tennessee -2, or something, so why is San Diego -1? Well, it has to do with the Titans being absolutely gassed. They played their Super Bowl last week. They spent the entire offseason preparing for that game. They lost in overtime despite seemingly having the game in hand, so they have to be emotionally drained. I don’t like them in the role as a favorite against the Chargers, who have to be pumped that they’re actually good again.

FINAL THOUGHTS: I still like the Chargers a good deal. If you’re planning on betting this game, take the three now because there’s a chance the juice will rise on the +3.

The Psychology. Edge: Chargers.

The Titans saw last week’s Houston matchup as their Super Bowl. They prepared the entire offseason for that game. They came up short, so they’ll be flat for this contest.

The Vegas. Edge: Titans.

The lean is on the team that just beat the beloved Eagles.

Percentage of money on San Diego: 69% (35,000 bets)

The Trends. Edge: Chargers.

Mike Munchak is 4-7 ATS as a favorite.

Opening Line: Titans -3.

Opening Total: 43.5.

Weather: .

Week 3 NFL Pick: Chargers 27, Titans 23
Chargers +3 (4 Units) — Push; $0
Over 43.5 (0 Units) — Incorrect; $0
Titans 20, Chargers 17

Cleveland Browns (0-2) at Minnesota Vikings (0-2)
Line: Vikings by 6.5. Total: 41.
Las Vegas Hilton Advance Point Spread: Vikings -3.5.
Walt’s Calculated Line (After Week 2): Vikings -8.
Sunday, Sept. 22, 1:00 ET
Discuss Week 3 Games, Talk Trash

The Game. Edge: Vikings.

HATE MAIL: Another week, another stack of hate mails. These are from the comment boards:

What are your excuses today Walt? Nice call on picking the Jaguars to beat the spread

Oh noez, I got my zero-unit bet wrong!!!!!

Two things walt I come here to pick against you, because you work with vegas clearly and people still take your picks what ever opinions are opinions what can you do about it. How can you be dumb enough not to understand the joke eminem pulled and to think Michigan would want anyone else over Eminem is funny… Mathers is a god in Michigan no one can get the fans happier then him. Carolina is an easy pick… To say newton choked and not mention he played seattle is a joke.

Damn it. My whole “working with Vegas” thing was designed to be a giant secret, but you, super sleuth, have uncovered the complete truth. Perhaps you should open a detective agency in your garage and charge people 25 cents per case – plus expenses.

Black is not a race – it is a color. When someone asks you what your nationality is do you say white? African-American is their nationality. You are a moron.

You yourself just went from “race” to “nationality.” On one of those forms, where it says to put your race, all white people circle in the option that says “white.” There aren’t billions of options like French, Polish, Russian, Irish, Italian, etc. It’s just white. Derp.

Back to the ‘Gabbert closes his eyes when he throws’ thing again just because there was once a photo of him blinking just before getting hit in the face by a lineman, eh? Lolage. Walt hates Gabbert, but loves Tebow. Hate to break it to you, bro; GABBERT IS BETTER THAN TEBOW.

I’m sure that’s what you continuously mutter to yourself as you’re trying to fall asleep in your room of the local psychiatric ward.

Wow Walt won a unit so far this week…maybe he should retire on a winning note!

Done and done. I’m posting this from my yacht.

Walt is Delusional. Your woulda, coulda, shoulda scenarios are hilarious. A loss is a loss is a loss. PERIOD. When you lose, you are on the wrong side. Stop making BS excuses as to why you should have won. If they would have had 1 less turnover I would have won. LOL…you are hilarious.

“When you lose, you are on the wrong side” is what saved me from really thinking I was delusional. That might be the most clueless sentence I’ve ever received in any sort of feedback I’ve received in my 14 years of running this Web site.

Check out what Walt, the guy who refuses to say Mike Vick’s name, instead calling him QB Dog Killer says in his Panthers/Bills section: “5. If you haven’t heard, Peter King stated that he will refuse to say the word “Redskins” in his column going forward. He will instead refer to them as the “Washington football team.” How arrogant is that? What sort of douche refuses to say the name of a team or a player in his writing?”

WAYYYYY over your head on that one…

Marshall Mathers aka Eminem is one of the best if not arguably one of the best rappers today. He may have had major drug problems in the past, but he recovered and is now sober. You said he didn’t have a hit since 2002? He released his new single “Berzerk” two weeks ago and it’s now number three on the billboard hot 100. Next time fact-check before dissing on a legend because it may help you look a little less foolish then you already are when you make NFL picks.

OK, I did a fact-check, and I now know that Eminem hasn’t had a good hit since 2003; not 2002. Sorry for dissing on a legend!

Holy crap dude, did you spend 3 days on acid brainstorming dumbass excuses to justify all the clueless picks? You’re in for another long, losing season bud. I’d say cut your losses and focus on something else, but I think you just might be dumb enough to believe your own crap. Look in the mirror and level with yourself. Seriously. Coin-flipping isn’t a profitable business model.

For the billionth time, I don’t coin flip. I blindfold myself and throw darts to determine my selection.

Walt I understand you suck at making NFL picks but you also aren’t up on your pop culture. You claimed that eminem is a has-been and hasn’t had a hit since 2002. Very wrong!! His last album “Recovery” was an absolute classic and not sure of the sales but it had plenty of hit songs. Sorry to be off football topic people but isn’t that all Walt does anyways? Ill continue to come to this site because its good entertainment watching your handicapping but you are way out of touch with just about everything. Wouldn’t expect anything different from a guy who claims a woman messed up his focus on football. My fianc

Like I said, I made a huge mistake with Eminem. He hasn’t been relevant for 10 years; not 11. I guess this legitimizes ESPN having him on the air during college football.

Walt maybe you should just stop. Gambling is a disease and if you stop now, you may have a chance to save yourself. You’ve been losing alot of $$$ lately and have been making a fool of yourself while doing it.

I’ve been making a fool out of myself even when winning, so this is nothing new to me. It’s all good.

Walt, How can you say it’s “arrogant” to call the Redskins “Washington football team” as you continue to refer to Vick by QB #7?

WAYYYYY over your head on that one…

Walt is back! 4-11-1 in typical WALT fashion! Making big money for Vegas in 2013 again…but if you remember to bet against Walt every chance you get you too can make big money just like Vegas and Walt do!

This guy has the right idea. People in Vegas kidnapped me when I was winning back in 2010. They told me to start making losing picks, or else they were going to make me listen to Eminem’s new crappy music for hours on end. I didn’t want my ears to bleed, so I accepted their proposal.

CLEVELAND OFFENSE: The Browns made a huge, franchise-changing announcement Wednesday morning. They’ll be starting Brian Hoyer over Jason Campbell in this game. This was earth-shattering news, and it made me change my entire thought process for this pick.

OK, maybe I’m not being entirely serious, but I’m not kidding when I say that my thoughts on this selection altered. I was planning on betting the Vikings for a unit or two because of how horrible Campbell is. He’s not a functional quarterback – all he does is check the ball down in a desperate attempt to keep from exposing himself so he can collect NFL paychecks as a backup – but Brian Hoyer hasn’t looked terrible during his brief playing stints. In other words, Hoyer can actually move the chains and perhaps keep things interesting. Campbell, on the other hand, would’ve been a disaster.

It helps Hoyer’s cause that Josh Gordon will be back from his two-game suspension. A major part of the reason Brandon Weeden struggled so much was that he didn’t have anyone to throw to besides Jordan Cameron. Some of Weeden’s interceptions were the result of inept wideouts like Greg Little either tipping balls into the air or running wrong routes. Gordon will at least provide some stability.

Of course, it would help if the Browns actually stuck with the running game. They haven’t been blown out in either of their two contests, but Trent Richardson inexplicably has been limited to fewer than 20 carries in both outings. I don’t understand it. Cleveland spent the No. 3 overall pick in the 2012 NFL Draft on him. He’s the top play-maker on team. Why isn’t he getting the football? Considering the Vikings have surrendered 4.7 YPC thus far, Norv Turner and Rob Chudzinski should feed Richardson AT LEAST 30 times.

MINNESOTA OFFENSE: Speaking of disappointing running backs, Adrian Peterson hasn’t exceeded 100 rushing yards in a game yet this season. The absence of stud fullback Jerome Felton can be attributed to that; Felton is currently serving the final contest of his three-game suspension, so he’ll at least be back next week.

In the meantime, Peterson will be asked to move the chains against one of the best front sevens in the NFL. The Browns have yielded opponents to just 2.2 YPC, good for second in the NFL behind the Broncos. Ray Rice and Bernard Pierce couldn’t do anything against them last week. Peterson may have slightly more success, but it’ll be up to Christian Ponder to move the chains.

Ponder, like Weeden, Hoyer and Campbell, is a bad quarterback, but he does play better at home. The issue, however, is that Ponder has just one dependable receiver, Greg Jennings, and he’ll be blanketed by Joe Haden. Thus, Ponder will have to rely on Kyle Rudolph and Jerome Simpson. Ponder will also have to deal with a potent Cleveland pass rush that has six sacks on the season.

RECAP: I love betting against terrible teams starting awful backup quarterbacks. I was excited about Campbell potentially getting the nod, but my enthusiasm has been tempered in the wake of the Hoyer announcement. I still do favor the Vikings though, as 0-2 teams that made the playoffs the previous year are 15-7 against the spread in Week 3.

TRENT RICHARDSON UPDATE: The Browns traded for Trent Richardson – click for my grades for the Colts and Browns. I expected this spread to rise quite a bit, but it’s only moved to -6.5. Cleveland lost its top play-maker, so I feel like anything under -7 is a gift. I’m bumping this up to two units.

THURSDAY UPDATE: I think I overreacted a bit to this trade. I thought about it, and the Browns have gotten so much flak for it that they might put together a great performance to prove everyone wrong. They still have a stellar defense that can shut down Christian Ponder. I’m dropping this back down to zero units.

FINAL THOUGHTS: There’s more money on the Vikings than any other team this week. Keep that in mind if you plan on betting them. I’m staying away from either side.

The Psychology. Edge: Vikings.

The Browns’ front office has punted the 2013 season away. How will the players feel? Meanwhile, the 0-2 Vikings are desperate.

The Vegas. Edge: Browns.

So much money has come in on the Vikings since the Trent Richardson trade.

Percentage of money on Minnesota: 87% (60,000 bets)

The Trends. Edge: Vikings.

0-2 teams that made the playoffs the previous year are 15-7 ATS in Week 3.

Opening Line: Vikings -3.

Opening Total: 41.5.

Weather: Dome.

Week 3 NFL Pick: Vikings 17, Browns 6
Vikings -6.5 (0 Units) — Incorrect; $0
Under 41 (0 Units) — Incorrect; $0
Browns 31, Vikings 27

Tampa Bay Buccaneers (0-2) at New England Patriots (2-0)
Line: Patriots by 7. Total: 44.5.
Las Vegas Hilton Advance Point Spread: Patriots -9.
Walt’s Calculated Line (After Week 2): Patriots -8.
Sunday, Sept. 22, 1:00 ET
Discuss Week 3 Games, Talk Trash

The Game. Edge: Patriots.

The most illiterate sports bettor in the world is a man named the Real John Moss. He loves to e-mail me and talk to me on G-chat. I’ve posted all of the messages he’s sent me over the years, including those in 2012. I haven’t heard from him all summer, but he contacted me after the season opener. I’m putting Real John Moss content on its own page, so click the link to see our most recent conversation.

NEW ENGLAND OFFENSE: I thought Bill Simmons made a great point on his podcast with Cousin Sal. The Patriots looked terrible offensively against the Jets, but was it that big of a surprise? Thursday games are always sloppy. Tom Brady had just three days off to help his young receivers prepare for a tough New York defense. Of course they screwed up. The Buccaneers also have a great stop unit, but New England has had the advantage of nine days to get ready for this matchup. We’ll see a better showing from Brady and his rookie wideouts. There’s also a chance Rob Gronkowski could play, though I wouldn’t count on it.

The Buccaneers did receive a break in that safety Dashon Goldson won the appeal of his one-game suspension. Goldson is a very dirty player who will continue to give the opposition concussions, so I’m not exactly sure how he avoided his ban, but Tampa will be happy to have him on the field versus one of the top quarterbacks in the NFL. It’s not like Goldson has been all that great thus far, but he and Darrelle Revis allow other players to blitz often. Tampa has nine sacks on the year thus far, but 4.5 have come from linebackers Lavonte David and Mason Foster. The front line hasn’t done a very good job of getting to the quarterback – aside from Gerald McCoy – so it needs the linebackers to help out.

The Patriots would love to take some heat off of Brady and establish Stevan Ridley on the ground. I don’t consider that much of a possibility though; the Buccaneers have permitted the opposition to rush for only 2.74 YPC. That’s good for sixth in the NFL.

TAMPA BAY OFFENSE: Doug Martin, conversely, should be able to put together another big game. The Patriots aren’t terrible versus the rush, but they’ve allowed at least 112 yards on the ground in both of their contests thus far. Plus, there’s a chance stud guard Carl Nicks will be on the field for the first time to help pave the way for Martin.

Despite this, however, the Buccaneers won’t score very often. Martin generated 144 rushing yards versus New Orleans last week, yet the offense couldn’t score a single point that didn’t come off of a New Orleans turnover. Josh Freeman is that terrible. If you’ve been reading this Web site, it should be no surprise to you that news is leaking out about him missing practices and blowing off kids who paid lots of money to attend his camp. He’s a bad leader and an even worse quarterback, and he’ll continue to struggle. Greg Schiano needs to bench him immediately.

RECAP: Based on things I know, my plan heading into this season was to bet against the Buccaneers at every opportunity. I should be 2-0 against the spread in this dynamic thus far. I was concerned, however, that this line would be too high after New England’s awful Thursday night performance, but seven is pretty manageable – especially considering that the spread a week ago was -9 at the Hilton.

I’m not going wild here – just a unit – but the Patriots should be able to cover, given that they’ve had nine days to prepare for Freeman. If Brady comes out in classic F-U mode in an attempt to prove all of the latest critics wrong, New England will win by double digits.

FINAL THOUGHTS: I’ve never had a strong opinion on this contest. This will remain a zero-unit selection.

The Psychology. Edge: None.
This is an odd game for the Patriots. Following two divisional victories, they play this non-conference contest. After this, they have to battle the Falcons, Bengals and Saints, followed by two more divisional matchups. The Buccaneers, meanwhile, are desperate. Their season is pretty much on the line. Ordinarily, I’d give the Buccaneers a big edge here. However, the Patriots have received so much flak for looking terrible that they may be out to prove everyone wrong. There is also some locker room drama going on with the Buccaneers and their growing discontent with Greg Schiano.

The Vegas. Edge: None.
Equal action.

Percentage of money on New England: 51% (44,000 bets)

The Trends. Edge: Patriots.

Tom Brady is 149-49 as a starter (113-80 ATS).

Opening Line: Patriots -7.

Opening Total: 45.

Weather: .

Week 3 NFL Pick: Patriots 23, Buccaneers 13
Patriots -7 (1 Unit) — Correct; +$100
Under 44.5 (0 Units) — Correct; $0
Patriots 23, Buccaneers 3

Houston Texans (2-0) at Baltimore Ravens (1-1)
Line: Texans by 2. Total: 45.
Las Vegas Hilton Advance Point Spread: Texans -1.
Walt’s Calculated Line (After Week 2): Ravens -3.5.
Sunday, Sept. 22, 1:00 ET
Discuss Week 3 Games, Talk Trash

The Game. Edge: None.

I put together this page during the early stages of the summer, but completely forgot about it. You know the pictures I sometimes post on these picks pages or in my NFL power rankings? Well, I put them all on one page, so you can access them without scouring through my Web site. Here’s the Fun NFL Pictures Page for 2012. I’ll have one for 2013 soon.

BALTIMORE OFFENSE: “The Ravens can’t score. Their offense stinks.” That’s the mindset most people have with Baltimore right now. Given that the team tallied 14 points versus Cleveland last week, it’s a natural reaction.

However, I think the notion is inaccurate. The Ravens weren’t that bad offensively last week – at least not in the second half. They had four real drives. Two ended up being touchdowns; one was interrupted by a Ray Rice fumble; while the fourth was ruined by a holding penalty. Baltimore didn’t score in the first half, but Justin Tucker missed two field goals. It also must be noted that the Browns definitely have a top-10 defense in the NFL (if not top-five). So, given that Baltimore should have scored 20 points, I don’t think that’s too bad.

But what about Houston’s defense? Can’t they shut the Ravens down? Well, everyone knows of J.J. Watt and Brian Cushing, but the Texans have been a bit disappointing defensively this season. The linebackers, excluding Cushing, have played poorly, while there are some concerns in the secondary. Johnathan Joseph hasn’t quite been himself, and the safeties have struggled at times.

It must be noted that Ray Rice could be out for this game, but I don’t think that would downgrade Baltimore’s offense at all. Bernard Pierce is a fantastic runner and will be able to fill in nicely.

HOUSTON OFFENSE: Rice has the prominent injury in this matchup, but the Texans have a pretty big one of their own. Stud left tackle Duane Brown has turf toe and could miss this contest. If so, backup Ryan Harris will be asked to block Terrell Suggs.

This is just yet another problem the Texans have with their scoring unit. The front line isn’t blocking very well, as left guard Wade Smith and right tackle Derek Newton have both been liabilities. It also hurts Houston that the coaching staff is stubborn and refuses to utilize the top running back on the roster. Ben Tate is playing so much better than Arian Foster right now; thanks to multiple injuries and a huge workload, Foster looks like a shell of his former self.

Because of these issues, Houston has had a tough time sustaining drives this season, save for the second half against San Diego. And here’s the thing – the Chargers and Titans don’t have great stop units. Baltimore maintains a much better defense than San Diego and Tennessee, so the Texans should continue to have problems scoring.

RECAP: This is my September NFL Pick of the Month. I love the Ravens for the following reasons:

1. This spread makes absolutely zero sense. Texans -2.5 at Ravens would translate to Texans -8.5 at home versus Ravens. Houston was -8 over Tennessee, so this is saying that the Titans are a half point better than Baltimore. What?

2. That brings me to the misconception the public has of these two teams. Average bettors think the Ravens are garbage because they can’t score, but as noted above, that’s simply not true. Baltimore put together some quality drives against a tough Cleveland defense last week. In the opener, the Ravens struggled because Michael Oher suffered an injury, and the coaching staff couldn’t adjust for a fifth-round rookie tackle blocking Shaun Phillips. Baltimore has a great defense and a solid running attack, even if Rice is out.

Meanwhile, the Texans could very easily be 0-2. They needed a crazy comeback and help from the officials to beat the Chargers. They then were trailing in the second half at home against the Titans. Why are they road favorites against a decent team?

I have Houston and Baltimore Nos. 7 and 11 in my NFL Power Rankings. The Texans are slightly better, so my calculated line would normally be maybe Ravens -2. So, why is it -3.5? Read on…

3. The Texans just won in overtime. Home teams that prevail in an extra session and then have to travel usually struggle in terms of covering.

4. The Ravens have a pretty strong homefield advantage. They’re a ridiculous 24-3 as hosts since 2010, with only the Packers (25-3) maintaining a better record in that span. Two of the three defeats have been to the rival Steelers, who know how to play in Baltimore, while the other was to Peyton Manning last year. Last time I checked, Matt Schaub was no Peyton Manning.

5. This is a big revenge game. Houston beat Baltimore last year, 43-13. Do you think a prideful team like the Ravens will let something like that go? The Texans were obviously not 30 points better than Baltimore last year, so what happened? Well, that was the first game in which Ray Lewis was out. Suggs happened to return from an Achilles that contest, but he wasn’t himself quite yet. The Ravens were simply out of sorts, while Houston was out for blood after losing to Baltimore in the playoffs the year before. Well, it’s the Ravens’ turn for vengeance.

6. While the Ravens will be hyped up to get a victory here, the Texans don’t really need this game. They’re 2-0 right now. Following this contest, they have to deal with the 49ers and Seahawks. Those are non-conference foes, but they’re perceived to be the top teams in the NFL (perhaps aside from Denver). Houston may have one eye on those two tilts.

7. Home underdogs seem to be the way to go this season. It’s a small sample size, but thus far, they’re 6-3 against the spread.

8. There’s a great trend that supports the Ravens: Home underdogs who will be road favorites (Baltimore is at Buffalo next week) are fantastic bets in between Weeks 2-10: They were 61-26 against the spread since 1989 (that’s how far back my records go).

FINAL THOUGHTS: Ray Rice is out, yet this spread is moving in Baltimore’s favor. The sharps appear to be on the Ravens. Perhaps they like the fact that Texans’ left tackle Duane Brown won’t play. I’m still super confident about the home underdog.

The Psychology. Edge: Ravens.

The Ravens are out for revenge.

The Vegas. Edge: Ravens.

A bit of action on the road favorite.

Percentage of money on Houston: 69% (21,000 bets)

The Trends. Edge: Ravens.

See Ravens trend above.

Opening Line: Texans -2.5.

Opening Total: 44.5.

Weather: .

Week 3 NFL Pick: Ravens 24, Texans 17
Ravens +2 (7 Units – September NFL Pick of the Month) — Correct; +$700
Under 45 (0 Units) — Correct; $0
Ravens 30, Texans 9

St. Louis Rams (1-1) at Dallas Cowboys (1-1)
Line: Cowboys by 4. Total: 47.
Las Vegas Hilton Advance Point Spread: Cowboys -4.
Walt’s Calculated Line (After Week 2): Cowboys -1.5.
Sunday, Sept. 22, 1:00 ET
Discuss Week 3 Games, Talk Trash

The Game. Edge: None.

I wouldn’t say my weekly random NFL notes cluttered these picks pages, so I’ll keep them here. What I’m also going to do is store all of them in a Random NFL Notes section so that you can go back and read previous entries in the future.

Some random NFL notes I can’t put anywhere else:

1. I normally don’t watch CBS’ pre-game show, but Robley pointed out that they post a leaderboard of their fantasy league. “Shannon Sharpe had 60-70 something points while almost everyone else was 120+.”

Why does Sharpe suck at fantasy so much? I had my programmers hack into CBS’ Web site, so I was able to see Sharpe’s starting fantasy lineup:

QB – Peyton Manning, Broncos
RB – Adrian Peterson, Vikings
RB – weg84w8 48gehr8ghreh, aoh
WR – 5h eitoio ghg 4h oetih, hgh
WR – 38y hgreoi n53hioo4n et, g93rg
TE – f8grwhrh go4rng oi5ngoen, goe
K – wrg8h 8g9 hg o45ihg oiwg or, ho5
DEF – Jaguars DEF/ST

2. Speaking of fantasy football, I had the NFL Network’s fantasy show on TV randomly one night during the week. I had never watched this program, and based on what I saw, I never will again.

One of the guys – I have no idea who any of these people are – said the following quote: Jermaine Gresham was phenomenal last year.” Gresham is a solid blocker, but he was speaking in fantasy terms. Gresham had 737 yards and five touchdowns. That’s decent, but phenomenal? No.

The next segment featured some woman and a taller man. The woman kept asking the guy “burning” fantasy questions. Here’s one: “Can Isaiah Pead claim the No. 1 running back job!?”

Umm… who cares? No competent fantasy owner has Pead on his roster unless it’s like a 20-team league or something.

3. I enjoyed reading the following tweet from ProFootballTalk: “Per league source, Joe Flacco was not present for birth of child this morning as he prepared for Browns game.”

I love it. Some athletes miss sports games because of childbirth, but unless they’re popping out the baby themselves – I’m pretty sure Donovan McNabb did this at some point – they should be on the field. My argument is that Robert Baratheon went out hunting when Cersei was in labor. King Baratheon was awesome, so football players need to try to be as cool as him – minus the whole “marrying a woman who sleeps with her brother and gives you illegitimate children” thing.

DALLAS OFFENSE: The Cowboys have sputtered offensively this year. They scored 16 points at Kansas City last week. They managed to post 36 in the opener, but two touchdowns came from the defense. The fact remains that Dallas had trouble sustaining drives versus a New York defense that has an atrocious back seven.

A big problem has been the blocking. One of the Cowboys’ homer preseason broadcasters, some guy named Babe, criticized those who bashed the Travis Frederick pick because Frederick wasn’t seen as a first-round prospect in most NFL Mock Drafts. Well, Frederick has struggled thus far, as have Ronald Leary and Mackenzy Bernadeau. Dallas’ solution for this is to start 36-year-old Brian Waters, who was out of football last year. I don’t think it’s going to work out, so I give a huge edge to St. Louis’ awesome defensive front in this matchup. I don’t expect DeMarco Murray to get much on the ground, as the Rams have permitted 2.9 YPC to the opposition thus far.

St. Louis’ defense can be beaten, however. The secondary is atrocious, thanks to poor safety play from Rodney McLeod. Also, Cortland Finnegan has inexplicably regressed. Whomever he’s covering in this contest should be able to go off. If it’s Dez Bryant, he may have an even bigger game than he put together at Kansas City.

ST. LOUIS OFFENSE: Like the Cowboys, the Rams will have trouble blocking in this contest. Their issue is at right tackle. Rodger Saffold sprained his MCL, so backup Joe Barksdale will be asked to keep the improved George Selvie out of the backfield. That will be quite the challenge for the LSU product.

Having said that, the Rams will be able to score on occasion. The Cowboys’ front seven hasn’t adjusted quite yet to Monte Kiffin’s Tampa-2, while Sam Bradford has so many weapons to work with. Tavon Austin scored twice last week; fantasy owners shouldn’t expect that again, but the rookie receiver’s role will increase going forward. This will keep defenses from completely focusing on Jared Cook and Chris Givens.

St. Louis will also want to run the ball, but that’s not going to happen. Dallas hasn’t permitted more than 57 rushing yards to either of its opponents this year, and Richardson isn’t talented enough to exceed that figure. He does make for a nice pass-catcher out of the backfield though, so he’ll be effective in that regard.

RECAP: My pick of the Rams failed last week, but as mentioned, that was more Atlanta being desperate for a victory. Now, both squads will want to win to avoid 1-2.

St. Louis is in a good spot though as a road underdog following an away loss. The Cowboys, meanwhile, don’t have a strong homefield advantage; excluding Thanksgiving, they’re 8-17 against the spread as home favorites in their new stadium. My calculated line is Dallas -1.5, so there’s quite a bit of value with the Rams. FRIDAY NOTE: If you can still get +4 – available at Bovada and BetUS – lock it in. The sharps are betting this number down.

FINAL THOUGHTS: As predicted, this line dropped. The sharps LOVE the Rams in this contest, though it’s probably more of a fade of Dallas.

The Psychology. Edge: None.
No edge.

The Vegas. Edge: None.
Equal action.

Percentage of money on St. Louis: 53% (36,000 bets)

The Trends. Edge: Rams.

Jeff Fisher is 37-19 ATS as an underdog since 2006.

Cowboys are 8-17 ATS as home favorites in Cowboys Stadium (excluding Thanksgiving).

Opening Line: Cowboys -3.

Opening Total: 46.5.

Weather: Dome.

Week 3 NFL Pick: Cowboys 25, Rams 24
Rams +4 (3 Units) — Incorrect; -$330
Over 47.5 (0 Units) — Incorrect; $0
Cowboys 31, Rams 7

Arizona Cardinals (1-1) at New Orleans Saints (2-0)
Line: Saints by 7. Total: 49.
Las Vegas Hilton Advance Point Spread: Saints -9.
Walt’s Calculated Line (After Week 2): Saints -7.
Sunday, Sept. 22, 1:00 ET
Discuss Week 3 Games, Talk Trash

The Game. Edge: Saints.

As with the random NFL notes, I’m going to have all of my Random College Football Notes on one page as well.

Random College Football Notes:

1. I need to start paying attention to these new rules college football releases. I was completely unaware of some of them prior to the Alabama-Texas A&M game. If you missed it, an Alabama safety named HaHa Clinton-Dix (**) was ejected for a helmet-to-helmet hit. The tackle wasn’t that fierce – he was definitely going for the ball – yet the official tossed him anyway.

I’m all fine for something like this if it’s completely malicious, but throwing a player out for an ordinary hit is absurd.

Oh, and you know what’s even worse? Per the rule, the booth upstairs can overturn an ejection. This is all good in theory – Clinton-Dix was rightfully allowed to remain in the game – but it completely undermines the official’s credibility. The poor ref stuttered and stammered through his explanation to the crowd after he was overruled.

I didn’t expect the NCAA to get this right because that organization is run by incompetent buffoons, but if you’re going to ask your refs to make a ridiculous call, at least allow it to stand. Or how about this idea: If there’s a malicious hit, suspend the player for the NEXT game… you know, kind of how the NFL does it.

(**) What the hell kind of a name is “HaHa Clinton-Dix,” anyway? I feel like there should be someone at the hospital who disallows parents from naming their kids “HaHa” or “North.” The name “HaHa” should especially be discouraged if the last name is Clinton-Dix. Like really, how many Monica Lewinsky jokes did HaHa have to endure as a child? He probably cried himself to sleep every night once he discovered what a blow job was.

2. I tweeted this during the Alabama-Texas A&M game (@walterfootball): “‘Continued participation without a helmet’ might just be the dumbest rule ever created in any sport.” Amazingly, the Clinton-Dix penalty didn’t fit that distinction.

If you somehow didn’t see it, an A&M defender lost his helmet as Alabama was attempting to run out the clock. He ran after the ball-carrier and tried to make a tackle. He was consequently flagged for staying in the play without his helmet.

Again, the spirit of this rule is positive because it was made to protect the players, but what was this guy supposed to do? Run away from the play? Allow the Alabama player to gain a valuable first down? If he does that, do you know how much flak he’ll get from his teammates? It’s so stupid. If anything, why not issue a warning or something and then penalize a team if it happens twice? Giving Alabama 15 free yards for that was a complete joke.

3. You know what else is a joke? Male cheerleaders. Take a look at this picture I snapped from the Michigan-Akron game:

This is just ridiculous. I thought the whole point of being a male cheerleader was so you could look up cheerleaders’ skirts and then try to bang them later. What is this guy doing just looking forward? How completely useless of him. He’s holding a spot for a nice, pervy dude looking for some great upskirt action. What a douche.

NEW ORLEANS OFFENSE: I’m not sure if it’s because Sean Payton was out of football for a year, but the timing just appears to be off with the Saints. They were responsible for two turnovers that gave Tampa Bay all 14 of its points last week – including a pick-six that Drew Brees threw right to Mason Foster. It was weird to see Brees struggle like that, but perhaps he’ll have more success at home – where his team always dominates.

Despite having Patrick Peterson to take away the opposing team’s No. 1 wideout, the Cardinals have struggled a bit versus the pass this season. They’re 20th in YPA (7.8). The source of this pedestrian play is a lacking pass rush; Arizona has just one sack through two contests, and it’s not like they’ve gone up against stalwart offensive lines. Darnell Dockett is playing terrible football right now, while Sam Acho and John Abraham have just been mediocre.

The Cardinals are much better at defending the run, but that’s something the Saints don’t do well anyway. I’d love to see Payton just say “screw it” and ditch Mark Ingram from his game plan. Ingram stinks and has no business being on the field with Brees.

ARIZONA OFFENSE: Larry Fitzgerald’s status has to be a concern. He barely played in the second half last week because of a hamstring problem. Soft-tissue injuries take a while to recover from, so there’s no telling when Fitzgerald will be 100 percent. I’m sure he’ll play against the Saints, but there’s little chance that he’ll be completely healthy.

With that in mind, the Saints have a pretty decent chance to limit the Cardinals. Rob Ryan has done a fantastic job with this new unit; New Orleans is 17th versus the pass, which isn’t all that great, but it’s miles ahead of where the team once was. The pass rush of Cameron Jordan and John Jenkins has been the difference. Jenkins, a third-round rookie, doesn’t have a sack yet, but he’s been disruptive. He could have a chance to notch his first sack in this contest, as Carson Palmer is protected by a shaky offensive line.

New Orleans is still weak versus the run, as Doug Martin discovered last week, but Arizona doesn’t have a potent rushing attack to take advantage of this liability. Rashard Mendenhall is just mediocre; the coaching staff isn’t even using him fully because they want to preserve him.

RECAP: The Saints are favored by seven, and that’s exactly where the line should be. I personally don’t know where to go with this game. New Orleans has been shaky to start the season, but the Cardinals will be limited offensively if Fitzgerald isn’t fully healthy. I guess I’d lean toward the Saints because they’re so awesome at home, but I’m not even going to think about betting this game.

FINAL THOUGHTS: I considered switching my pick to the Cardinals, but I have a bad track record when I change sides late in the week. I’ll stay on the Saints.

The Psychology. Edge: None.
No edge found.

The Vegas. Edge: Cardinals.
Slight lean on the host.

Percentage of money on New Orleans: 64% (37,000 bets)

The Trends. Edge: Saints.

Saints are 27-13 ATS as a home favorite since 2007.

Drew Brees is 33-21 ATS off back-to-back wins.

Opening Line: Saints -7.5.

Opening Total: 50.

Weather: Dome.

Week 3 NFL Pick: Saints 26, Cardinals 17
Saints -7 (0 Units) — Correct; $0
Under 49 (0 Units) — Correct; $0
Saints 31, Cardinals 7

Detroit Lions (1-1) at Washington Redskins (0-2)
Line: Pick. Total: 48.5.
Las Vegas Hilton Advance Point Spread: Redskins -3.
Walt’s Calculated Line (After Week 2): Lions -1.
Sunday, Sept. 22, 1:00 ET
Discuss Week 3 Games, Talk Trash

The Game. Edge: Lions.

If you’ve followed this site for a while, you might remember that I like to respond to my spam mails. Three years ago, a man named Jon Wire from the “United Bank of Africoan” promised me an ATM card of some sort, so I responded as a man named Mister Compassion Chuck Norris, who was raised by wolves. The following season, I received e-mails from Richard Held and Loon Bruce, who told me I won a Facebook Award, which comes with a “lump sum pay out of (750,000.00 GBP).” Pretending to be Matthew Millen Kim, I sent out my application and fake money.

As for 2012, I messed around with a spammer pretending to be a black woman named Mulyana. I assumed Steve Urkel’s identity and had many exchanges with Mulyana. Click the link to see all of that.

What’s in store for this season? Well, I imagine Aaron Hernandez and Riley Cooper will be involved. I’m going to post new Spam Mails here with my responses to avoid clutter. My newest response has to do with a certain former coach who stalked Erin Andrews.

WASHINGTON OFFENSE: There has been some debate this week about whether or not to bench Robert Griffin. Tony Dungy suggested that the team would be better off with Kirk Cousins right now. I would have to agree. Here’s the big thing for me – Washington is not running the read option with Griffin. The coaching staff is obviously scared that Griffin might aggravate his knee injury, which he clearly rushed back from. If Mike Shanahan and company are so concerned about that, then Griffin should be on the sideline until he fully heals.

But it doesn’t seem like Griffin is getting benched anytime soon. Griffin will keep playing with his shoddy mechanics. He’ll continue to be inaccurate. He’ll also avoid scrambling, which could be an issue with Detroit’s fierce front line breathing down his neck.

The one positive about last week’s loss was that Alfred Morris got on track. He rushed for 107 yards on just 13 carries, and more importantly, he avoided fumbling. The Redskins will obviously try to establish Morris if they’re not getting blown out again, but that could be difficult; aside from the 78-yard Adrian Peterson touchdown run to kick off the season, the Lions have handled opposing backs pretty well. They even prevented Peterson from reaching the century mark despite that long gain.

DETROIT OFFENSE: As bad as Washington’s scoring attack has been, its defense has been even worse. The Redskins rank 32nd against the pass and 31st versus the rush. The only players who aren’t totally sucking are the two pass-rushers (Brian Orakpo, Ryan Kerrigan), Barry Cofield and maybe Perry Riley. Everyone else stinks. The entire secondary is a joke, while London Fletcher can’t even move anymore. He shouldn’t be in the league at this point; let alone a starting lineup.

This is not a good time for the Redskins to be battling the Lions. How in the world are they going to contain Calvin Johnson? The Cardinals had Patrick Peterson on Megatron, and he still managed to tear Arizona apart. Of course, Washington also has to worry about what’s going on in the backfield. Reggie Bush may play, but if he doesn’t, Joique Bell has proven that he can be a capable receiver. Megatron clearing out all of the space downfield has really helped Bell and Bush.

As mentioned, Orakpo and Kerrigan are doing a good job; it’s the reason the Redskins have seven sacks on the year. However, the Lions have permitted just a pair of sacks in two games. I’m not confident in what they have going on at right tackle, but blind-side protector Riley Reiff has been phenomenal thus far.

RECAP: I don’t know how or why Washington is favored. The Lions are the better team and should rebound off their loss to Arizona.

I’m going to keep fading the Redskins until A) Griffin proves that he can be a threat in non-garbage time and B) Jim Haslett figures out what to do on defense.

FRIDAY NOTE: I’m not a fan of this spread dropping to pick ’em. I’m moving this to two units.

FINAL THOUGHTS: I’m dropping this again. I really hate that the Redskins are underdogs now in some places. There might be a consensus +1 or +1.5 by kickoff.

The Psychology. Edge: None.
No edge.

The Vegas. Edge: None.
No edge either way.

Percentage of money on Detroit: 58% (26,000 bets)

The Trends. Edge: None.

Lions are 9-18 ATS against losing teams the previous 27 instances.

Redskins are 6-13 ATS in September home games since 2001.

Opening Line: Redskins -2.5.

Opening Total: 48.

Weather: .

Week 3 NFL Pick: Lions 30, Redskins 27
Lions PK (1 Unit) — Correct; +$100
Over 48.5 (0 Units) — Incorrect; $0
Lions 27, Redskins 20

Green Bay Packers (1-1) at Cincinnati Bengals (1-1)
Line: Packers by 3. Total: 50.
Las Vegas Hilton Advance Point Spread: Packers -1.
Walt’s Calculated Line (After Week 2): Bengals -1.
Sunday, Sept. 22, 1:00 ET
Discuss Week 3 Games, Talk Trash

The Game. Edge: Packers.

Video of the Week: I saw Ragnarok post this on Facebook. I haven’t played chess in a long time. It just requires too much thought and is pretty stressful. However, this new version of chess looks pretty awesome.

GREEN BAY OFFENSE: Can the Bengals slow down Aaron Rodgers? Cincinnati certainly has the pass rush. Geno Atkins, Michael Johnson and Carlos Dunlap are fully capable of dominating the trenches, and Green Bay doesn’t have the soundest protection for Rodgers.

Having said that, the Packers are still going to score a ton of points. Rodgers was sacked four times last week, yet he was well on pace to eclipse Norm Van Brocklin’s single-game passing record. He tore apart San Francisco’s stout defense as well the week before. With Jordy Nelson healthy, Rodgers simply has too many weapons to work with. The Bengals have a decent secondary, but they’re not going to limit Green Bay’s offense very much.

The one break Cincinnati gets is that Eddie Lacy is out. However, James Starks did his best to prove last week that there’s not much of a drop-off. He rushed for 132 yards against the Redskins though, so we’ll see how he does against a real defense. The Bengals are third versus ground attacks (2.58 YPC).

CINCINNATI OFFENSE: To beat the Packers, Andy Dalton will have to out-duel Rodgers in a shootout. I don’t see that happening.

Dalton is a very erratic passer. He’ll have some great drives where he looks unstoppable, but then he’ll miss wide-open targets on multiple throws. Some of his passes Monday night were brutal. He does go up against a secondary that has some injury concerns, but I don’t see Dalton generating touchdown drives on most of his possessions – which is something he’ll have to do in this contest.

On a different note, I’d love to see the Bengals ditch BenJarvus Green-Ellis as the prominent running back. Giovani Bernard is so explosive and adds a dimension to Cincinnati’s offense that it hasn’t had in years. The Packers had issues with Alfred Morris last week, so they wouldn’t be able to contain Bernard while worrying about A.J. Green and the two tight ends.

RECAP: There are several strong trends that really favor the Bengals in this matchup, but I think Rodgers as a short favorite trumps all of that. There’s sharp money actually coming in on the Packers, per Chad Millman’s podcast, so I’d like to join the “wise guys” and side with Green Bay. I don’t like it enough to lay down a big bet, however.

FINAL THOUGHTS: I’ll stay on the Packers for one unit.

FINAL THOUGHTS PART II: I’m bumping this up for two units. It’s obvious by listening to the Sunday morning football shows that the public expects the Bengals to go toe-to-toe with the Packers. I don’t see that happening.

The Psychology. Edge: None.
No edge found.

The Vegas. Edge: Bengals.

No surprise there’s a ton of money on the Packers. The sharps are responsible for this instead of the public, however.

Percentage of money on Green Bay: 86% (51,000 bets)

The Trends. Edge: Packers.

Aaron Rodgers is 44-25 ATS since 2009.

Aaron Rodgers is 22-13 ATS on the road as long as he’s not favored by 6.5 or more points.

Bengals are 20-13 ATS as underdogs since 2009.

Opening Line: Bengals -1.

Opening Total: 45.5.

Weather: .

Week 3 NFL Pick: Packers 37, Bengals 27
Packers -3 (2 Units) — Incorrect; -$220
Over 50 (0 Units) — Correct; $0
Bengals 34, Packers 30

New York Giants (0-2) at Carolina Panthers (0-2)
Line: Giants by 1. Total: 47.
Las Vegas Hilton Advance Point Spread: Panthers -3.
Walt’s Calculated Line (After Week 2): Giants -1.5.
Sunday, Sept. 22, 1:00 ET
Discuss Week 3 Games, Talk Trash

The Game. Edge: Giants.

The Adventures of Tom Brady’s Haircuts is back for a second season! As with everything else though, I’m moving it to its own separate page. See what’s going on this week with this picture here:

NEW YORK OFFENSE: ESPN New York’s Ohm Youngmisuk – and you thought my last name was hard to spell – wrote a piece about how he believes David Wilson deserves more playing time. I opined the same exact thing in my NFL Game Recaps page. Wilson is a great play-maker and happens to be so much better than any other running back New York has on its roster, so he should be getting the majority of the workload. Sure, he fumbled twice in the opener, but s*** happens. Tom Coughlin has to get over himself because feeding Wilson the football gives his team the best chance of winning.

A strong ground attack would be a big boost for Eli Manning, who has thrown seven interceptions this season. That number shouldn’t grow too much by the end of this contest, given the issues Carolina has in its secondary. The defensive backfield, which already had lacking talent to begin with, is in complete disarray because of injuries. Starting safety Charles Godfrey has been knocked out for the year with a torn Achilles. Corner D.J. Moore is out with a knee. Elsewhere, corners Josh Norman and Josh Thomas as well as safety Quintin Mikell may all be sidelined because of various injuries. Norman is listed as doubtful, while the other two are questionable. Victor Cruz and Hakeem Nicks have to be licking their chops.

The Panthers can counter this by applying pressure on Manning, but the Giants protect their quarterback relatively decently. Also, stud defensive end Charles Johnson injured his arm last week. He’s expected to play, but he may not be 100 percent.

CAROLINA OFFENSE: Like the Panthers, New York has a very shaky secondary. Cornerbacks Corey Webster and Terrell Thomas are routinely torched, while the safety situation is a bit worrisome. However, the Giants don’t have to deal with as many weapons as Carolina’s stop unit has to. It’s just Steve Smith, Greg Olsen and no one else. Ted Ginn will have a big catch now and then, but he’s an unreliable second option.

A lacking supporting cast is one reason Cam Newton is struggling. Another is poor pass protection. This has to be music to New York’s ears because the Giants, who usually do a great job of pressuring opposing signal-callers, haven’t done a good job of that thus far this season. Jason Pierre-Paul hasn’t been healthy, which might explain that. The Panthers have problems up front though, so maybe the Giants’ pass rush can get going.

The protection and the surrounding cast are issues, but Newton misses Rob Chudzinski most of all. He just looks uncomfortable right now. Perhaps it would help him if he actually scrambled, but he’s barely doing that. If he continues to be stubborn about running, the Giants, as well as every other team, will undoubtedly be thrilled to not have to worry about Newton’s greatest asset.

RECAP: The big news surrounding this game, which I haven’t gotten to yet, is the death of Tom Coughlin’s brother. It really sucks that Coughlin lost a family member. I imagine the Giants’ players will want to rally around their coach and get a victory for him. I already liked New York to take them for a couple of units – everyone seems to be doubting them now, which is when they’re most dangerous, plus the hobbled Panthers continue to be overrated – but this development really strengthened my belief that the Giants are the right side.

FRIDAY NOTE: Ugh. Why do the Giants have to be favored now? I’m moving this down to three units.

FINAL THOUGHTS: All but one of Carolina’s top five defensive backs are out. The Giants, meanwhile, still have that huge motivational factor. I’ll stick with them for three units.

The Psychology. Edge: Giants.

Tom Coughlin’s brother passed away. The Giants will want to win for their head coach.

The Vegas. Edge: Panthers.

Bettors are all over the Giants.

Percentage of money on New York: 87% (57,000 bets)

The Trends. Edge: Giants.

Giants are 35-16 ATS on the road since 2006 as long as they’re not favored by 3.5 or more.

Eli Manning is 26-14 ATS as an underdog since 2007. ???

Panthers are 32-47 ATS at home since 2003.

Opening Line: Panthers -2.5.

Opening Total: 45.5.

Weather: .

Week 3 NFL Pick: Giants 23, Panthers 17
Giants -1 (3 Units) — Incorrect; -$330
Under 47 (0 Units) — Correct; $0
Panthers 38, Giants 0

Week 3 NFL Picks – Late Games
Atlanta�at�Miami, Buffalo�at�NY Jets, Indianapolis�at�San Francisco, Jacksonville�at�Seattle, Chicago�at�Pittsburgh, Oakland�at�Denver

Prop/Teaser/Parlay Picks
A list of some of my favorite team/player prop picks this week
(Offense & defensive ROY picks to be counted whenver winners are announced.) Picks carried over on a week-to-week basis will be in black.

Prop/teaser/parlay picks posted in Week 3 NFL Picks – Late Games

NFL Picks - Dec. 13

2025 NFL Mock Draft - Dec. 11

NFL Power Rankings - Dec. 9

2026 NFL Mock Draft - Nov. 29

Fantasy Football Rankings - Sept. 4

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2006 Season NFL Picks Against The Spread: 151-135-9 (52.8%)
2007 Season NFL Picks Against The Spread: 162-135-10, 54.5% (+$3,585)
2008 Season NFL Picks Against The Spread: 148-140-7, 51.4% (+$6,105)
2009 Season NFL Picks Against The Spread: 151-124-9, 54.9% (+$4,235)
2010 Season NFL Picks Against The Spread: 144-131-8, 52.4% (+$5,880)
2011 Season NFL Picks Against The Spread: 137-133-12, 50.7% (-$1,335)
2012 Season NFL Picks Against The Spread: 130-145-8, 47.3% (-$7,445)
2013 Season NFL Picks Against The Spread: 144-131-8, 52.4% (+$7,825)
2014 Season NFL Picks Against The Spread: 143-133-7, 51.8% (-$1,885)
2015 Season NFL Picks Against The Spread: 134-138-12, 49.3% (-$3,215)
2016 Season NFL Picks Against The Spread: 148-127-10, 53.8% (+$780)
2017 Season NFL Picks Against The Spread: 137-140-8, 49.5% (-$4,300)
2018 Season NFL Picks Against The Spread: 140-134-14, 51.3% (+$845)
2019 Season NFL Picks Against The Spread: 149-128-9, 53.6% (+$1,200)
2020 Season NFL Picks Against The Spread: 138-124-7, 52.7% (+$9,350)
2021 Season NFL Picks Against The Spread: 153-141-2, 51.9% (+$210)
2022 Season NFL Picks Against The Spread: 154-134-8, 53.5% (+$9,860)
2023 Season NFL Picks Against The Spread: 144-141-7, 50.5% (-$7,285)

2002 Season 2-3 Unit NFL Picks: 41-49-2 (45.6%)
2003 Season 2-3 Unit NFL Picks: 52-51-2 (50.5%)
2004 Season 2-3 Unit NFL Picks: 65-44-3 (59.6%)
2005 Season 2-3 Unit NFL Picks: 77-61-1 (55.8%)
2006 Season 2-3 Unit NFL Picks: 65-61-4 (51.6%)
2007 Season 2-3 Unit NFL Picks: 83-59-5, 58.5% (+$4,110)
2008 Season 2-3 Unit NFL Picks: 44-57-3, 43.6% (-$3,510)
2009 Season 2-3 Unit NFL Picks: 49-35-3, 58.3% (+$2,260)
2010 Season 2-3 Unit NFL Picks: 51-38-4, 57.3% (+$3,180)
2011 Season 2-3 Unit NFL Picks: 44-51-3, 46.3% (-$2,715)
2012 Season 2-3 Unit NFL Picks: 45-50-2, 47.4% (-$2,130)
2013 Season 2-3 Unit NFL Picks: 38-42, 47.5% (-$2,890)
2015 Season 2-3 Unit NFL Picks: 47-44-1, 51.6% (-$820)
2016 Season 2-3 Unit NFL Picks: 42-35-3, 54.5% (+$475)
2017 Season 2-3 Unit NFL Picks: 32-40-3, 43.8% (-$2,395)
2018 Season 2-3 Unit NFL Picks: 52-41-2, 55.9% (+$2,670)
2019 Season 2-3 Unit NFL Picks: 44-36-2, 55.0% (+$655)
2020 Season 2-3 Unit NFL Picks: 47-43-3, 52.2% (-$1,965)
2021 Season 2-3 Unit NFL Picks: 50-50, 50.0% (-$1,570)
2022 Season 2-3 Unit NFL Picks: 56-44-2, 56.0% (+$1,860)
2023 Season 2-3 Unit NFL Picks: 44-40-3, 52.4% (+$285)

2002 Season 4-5 Unit NFL Picks: 11-12 (47.8%)
2003 Season 4-5 Unit NFL Picks: 16-13-1 (55.2%)
2004 Season 4-5 Unit NFL Picks: 18-11 (62.1%)
2005 Season 4-5 Unit NFL Picks: 25-22-1 (53.2%)
2006 Season 4-5 Unit NFL Picks: 21-29-1 (42.0%)
2007 Season 4-5 Unit NFL Picks: 35-30-2, 53.8% (+$420)
2008 Season 4-5 Unit NFL Picks: 39-26-2, 60.0% (+$4,055)
2009 Season 4-5 Unit NFL Picks: 29-26, 52.7% (+$330)
2010 Season 4-5 Unit NFL Picks: 32-22, 59.3% (+$4,790)
2011 Season 4-5 Unit NFL Picks: 14-14, 50.0% (-$1,260)
2012 Season 4-5 Unit NFL Picks: 14-21, 40.0% (-$3,650)
2013 Season 4-5 Unit NFL Picks: 17-9-3, 65.4% (+$2,970)
2015 Season 4-5 Unit NFL Picks: 17-16-2, 51.5% (-$1,120)
2016 Season 4-5 Unit NFL Picks: 21-22-5, 48.8% (-$1,465)
2017 Season 4-5 Unit NFL Picks: 20-22-1, 47.6% (-$1,595)
2018 Season 4-5 Unit NFL Picks: 27-32-1, 45.8% (-$4,735)
2019 Season 4-5 Unit NFL Picks: 37-27-2, 57.8% (+$2,185)
2020 Season 4-5 Unit NFL Picks: 37-22-1, 62.7% (+$5,515)
2021 Season 4-5 Unit NFL Picks: 32-32-1, 50.0% (-$725)
2022 Season 4-5 Unit NFL Picks: 41-30-1, 57.8% (+$3,725)
2023 Season 4-5 Unit NFL Picks: 32-27-1, 54.2% (-$1,310)

2001 Season Over-Under: 3-2 (60.0%)
2002 Season Over-Under: 121-91-3 (57.1%)
2003 Season Over-Under: 126-132-2 (48.8%)
2004 Season Over-Under: 139-124-4 (52.9%)
2005 Season Over-Under: 117-145-4 (44.7%)
2006 Season Over-Under: 129-132-5 (49.4%)
2007 Season Over-Under: 136-145-3, 48.4% (-$1,900)
2008 Season Over-Under: 137-125-6, 52.3% (+$860)
2009 Season Over-Under: 128-135-4, 48.7% (-$3,195)
2010 Season Over-Under: 128-135-5, 48.7% (-$5)
2011 Season Over-Under: 131-131-5, 50.0% (+$135)
2012 Season Over-Under: 125-121-5, 50.8% (+$30)
2013 Season Over-Under: 132-130-5, 50.4% (-$340)
2015 Season Over-Under: 143-119-5, 54.6% ($0)
2016 Season Over-Under: 123-141-1, 46.6% (+$95)
2017 Season Over-Under: 136-139-2, 49.5% (+$640)
2018 Season Over-Under: 118-128-3, 48.0% (-$225)
2019 Season Over-Under: 126-133-4, 48.6% (-$50)
2020 Season Over-Under: 141-122-6, 53.6% ($0)
2021 Season Over-Under: 132-151-3, 46.6% ($0)
2022 Season Over-Under: 133-149-2, 47.2% (-$225)
2023 Season Over-Under: 145-135-3, 51.8% (+$200)

2007 Season Prop/ML/Teaser/Parlay Picks: +$1,035
2008 Season Prop/ML/Teaser/Parlay Picks: +$1,775
2009 Season Prop/ML/Teaser/Parlay Picks: +$865
2010 Season Prop/ML/Teaser/Parlay Picks: -$200
2011 Season Prop/ML/Teaser/Parlay Picks: +$590
2012 Season Prop/ML/Teaser/Parlay Picks: -$1,685
2013 Season Prop/ML/Teaser/Parlay Picks: +$2,245
2015 Season Prop/ML/Teaser/Parlay Picks: -$855
2016 Season Prop/ML/Teaser/Parlay Picks: -$275
2017 Season Prop/ML/Teaser/Parlay Picks: -$510
2018 Season Prop/ML/Teaser/Parlay Picks: +$1,495
2019 Season Prop/ML/Teaser/Parlay Picks: -$1,715
2020 Season Prop/ML/Teaser/Parlay Picks: +$4,975
2021 Season Prop/ML/Teaser/Parlay Picks: +$3,455
2022 Season Prop/ML/Teaser/Parlay Picks: +$5,720
2023 Season Prop/ML/Teaser/Parlay Picks: -$2,565

2006 NFL Picks of the Month: 3-3 (50%)
2007 NFL Picks of the Month: 3-3, 50.0% (-$400)
2008 NFL Picks of the Month: 6-1, 85.7% (+$3,720)
2009 NFL Picks of the Month: 3-2, 60.0% (+$640)
2010 NFL Picks of the Month: 2-4, 33.3% (-$1,810)
2011 NFL Picks of the Month: 5-2, 71.4% (+$1,870)
2012 NFL Picks of the Month: 3-2, 60.0% (+$560)
2013 NFL Picks of the Month: 6-0, 100% (+$3,900)
2014 NFL Picks of the Month: 2-4, 33.3% (-$1,350)
2015 NFL Picks of the Month: 3-3, 50.0% (-$100)
2016 NFL Picks of the Month: 5-1, 83.3% (+$2,780)
2017 NFL Picks of the Month: 4-2, 66.7% (+$1,040)
2018 NFL Picks of the Month: 4-3, 57.1% (-$640)
2019 NFL Picks of the Month: 3-3-1, 50.0% (-$625)
2020 NFL Picks of the Month: 3-2, 60.0% (+$665)
2021 NFL Picks of the Month: 2-3, 40.0% (-$920)
2022 NFL Picks of the Month: 3-4, 42.9% (-$1,615)
2023 NFL Picks of the Month: 2-5, 28.6% (-$2,550)

Career NFL Picks Against The Spread: 3,530-3,254-204, 52.0% (+$17,530)
Career 2-3 Unit NFL Picks: 1,132-1,020-57 (52.6%)
Career 4-5 Unit NFL Picks: 577-506-25 (53.3%)
Career Over-Under: 2,960-2,937-78 (50.2%)
Career Second-Half NFL Picks: 23-16-1 (59.0%)
Career NFL Picks of the Month: 47-37-1 (56.0%)

My Team-by-Team ATS Record
This section shows how well I do when picking each team this year. The purpose is to see how well I read each team. Pushes are not displayed. Winning/losing streak in parentheses.

Cowboys: 6-6	Bears: 5-7	Bucs: 8-5	49ers: 8-5
Eagles: 7-6	Lions: 10-3	Falcons: 7-6	Cardinals: 9-4
Giants: 4-8	Packers: 9-3	Panthers: 5-8	Rams: 7-6
Redskins: 6-6	Vikings: 5-7	Saints: 6-7	Seahawks: 7-5

Bills: 5-8	Bengals: 3-10	Colts: 7-6	Broncos: 9-4
Dolphins: 5-8	Browns: 5-8	Jaguars: 4-7	Chargers: 7-5
Jets: 7-6	Ravens: 6-6	Texans: 5-7	Chiefs: 5-7
Patriots: 7-4	Steelers: 6-7	Titans: 8-4	Raiders: 7-6

Divisional: 27-34 (2011-23: 608-561)	2x Game Edge: 23-19 (2011-23: 401-387)	2x Motivation Edge: 38-31 (2011-23: 510-441)	2x Spread Edge: 25-36 (2011-23: 239-211)
2x Vegas Edge: 44-57 (2011-23: 448-446)	2x Trend Edge: 14-9 (2011-23: 321-293)	Double Edge: 17-17 (2011-23: 207-185)	Triple Edge: 4-9 (2011-23: 33-37)