NFL Picks Against the Spread: Week 11, 2009

NFL Picks (Preseason 2009): 8-7-2 (+$130)
NFL Picks (Week 1, 2009): 9-7 (+$285)
NFL Picks (Week 2, 2009): 10-6 (+$1,860)
NFL Picks (Week 3, 2009): 13-3 (+$2,095)
NFL Picks (Week 4, 2009): 10-4 (+$2,040)
NFL Picks (Week 5, 2009): 8-6 (+$895)
NFL Picks (Week 6, 2009): 5-9 (-$730)
NFL Picks (Week 7, 2009): 5-7-1 (-$1,010)
NFL Picks (Week 8, 2009): 7-6 (-$390)
NFL Picks (Week 9, 2009): 9-4 (+$1,120)
NFL Picks (Week 10, 2009): 7-7-1 (+$15)

NFL Picks (2009): 91-66-4 (+$6,310)
NFL Picks (2008): 136-125-6 (+$4,330)
If you don’t quite understand the line, total or anything else, go to my Sports Betting FAQ.

Vegas betting action updated Nov. 23, 4:25 p.m. ET.

Go to Week 11 NFL Picks – Early Games

Arizona Cardinals (6-3) at St. Louis Rams (1-8)
Line: Cardinals by 9. Total: 47.
Walt’s Projected Line (Before Week 10): Cardinals -9.5.
Walt’s Projected Line (After Week 10): Cardinals -9.5.
Sunday, 4:05 ET

The Game. Edge: Cardinals.

NFL Injuries: AFC Injuries | NFC Injuries

With the 2009 NFL Season underway, I’ll be posting my Jerks of the Week on Wednesdays because I’ll be tied up on Sundays. Jerks of the Week for Nov. 16, 2009 are up, so just click the link. This week’s jerks are: 1) Fat Russian Guy. 2) Chefs. 3) Stuck In Time Man.

ARIZONA OFFENSE: If you discard the Panthers game – every team has a clunker once in a while – the Cardinals have averaged 30.2 points since their bye. Kurt Warner was really hampered by his surgically repaired hip at the beginning of the season, but he looks healthier than ever now.

The Rams can’t get to the quarterback – they have 15 sacks on the year – so if they can’t pressure Warner, who has been sacked just three times the past three weeks, they won’t be able to contain Arizona’s offense. St. Louis is 25th versus the pass.

The Cardinals are more dangerous this year because they actually have a sound running game at their disposal. Chris Wells looked great against the Seahawks, as he bulldozed through helpless defenders for 85 yards on just 16 carries. The Rams have surrendered at least 127 rushing yards in each of their previous four games, so it’ll put extra stress on their secondary if they have to place eight men in the box to contain Wells and Tim Hightower.

ST. LOUIS OFFENSE: The Saints’ skeleton-crew secondary must be really bad because Marc Bulger went 26-of-40 for 298 yards, two touchdowns and a pick last week. Either it was all of the New Orleans injuries, or Peter Petrelli healed Bulger.

The Cardinals have a solid secondary, and Dominique Rodgers-Cromartie should be able to eliminate either Donnie Avery or Brandon Gibson (he held Nate Burleson catch-less last week). Marc Bulger was only sacked twice last week, so if the Cardinals want to prevent him from going off again, they’ll have to put tons of pressure on him. Arizona has 25 sacks on the year.

However, that could be a problem if Steven Jackson has a huge game. The Cardinals played well against the run in the beginning of the season, but they’ve been leaky against it recently, surrendering 611 rushing yards in their last four outings.

RECAP: I was initially leaning toward the Rams because I thought Arizona would be unfocused after defeating arch rival Seattle. However, I quickly remembered that the Cardinals always get up for their divisional games. In the past year and a half, they’re 7-2 against the spread against the NFC West.

Arizona especially loves to clobber the Rams. I don’t know if that’s because Ken Whisenhunt enjoys laying the hammer on divisional opponents or if Warner wants some retribution for how he was displaced, but in two games the Cardinals didn’t really need last year, they beat St. Louis twice by the combined score of 68-23.

The Psychology. Edge: Rams.
The Rams are playing well lately and will be up for this game. With a three-game lead in their division, the Cardinals may not be focused here, though they do have a history of beating up on their divisional opponents.

The Vegas. Edge: Rams.

The high-ocatane Cardinals are on fire and everyone loves them.

Percentage of money on Arizona: 78% (113,000 bets)

The Trends. Edge: Cardinals.

History: Cardinals have won the last 5 meetings (4-1 ATS).

Cardinals are 7-2 ATS vs. the NFC West since 2008.

Cardinals are 2-9 ATS as favorites of 7.5 or more the previous 11 instances.

Opening Line: Cardinals -9.5.

Opening Total: 46.

Weather: Dome.

For more trends, check out the Gaming Matchups or the Expanded NFL Analysis.

Week 11 NFL Pick: Cardinals 34, Rams 17
Cardinals -9 (1 Unit) — Incorrect; -$110
Over 47 (0 Units) — Incorrect; $0
Cardinals 21, Rams 13

New York Jets (4-5) at New England Patriots (6-3)
Line: Patriots by 10.5. Total: 45.5.
Walt’s Projected Line (Before Week 10): Patriots -10.5.
Walt’s Projected Line (After Week 10): Patriots -10.5.
Sunday, 4:15 ET

The Game. Edge: Patriots.

NFL Injuries: AFC Injuries | NFC Injuries

Remember to get your NFL picks in for the picking contest. If you don’t know what I’m talking about, we are now running a NFL Picking Contest on our sister site, DraftDebacled.com. It’s free to enter, and there are monthly prizes ($75 for the winner, $25 for second place), so click on the link to sign up.

Also, a few reminders:

There will be a 2010 NFL Mock Draft update on Thursday.

I’ll also have Week 11 Fantasy Weekly Rankings for you on Thursday.

And finally, there are 24 people still alive in the survivor pool. Make sure you get your picks in by noon Eastern on Sunday.

NEW ENGLAND OFFENSE: Like Kurt Warner in the previous write-up, Tom Brady began the year on a slow pace off his knee injury, but he keeps improving each week. He was nearly flawless against the Colts, going 29-of-42 for 375 yards, three touchdowns and an interception.

Brady struggled in Week 2 versus the Jets, back when everyone thought Rex Ryan was a genius. Brady was just 23-of-47 for 216 yards and a pick because he couldn’t get any protection up front. The difference now is that New York lost Kris Jenkins and the Patriots gained an elite left tackle in Sebastian Vollmer.

Darrelle Revis will do a solid job on Moss, but unlike the last time he battled the Jets, Brady will have Wes Welker as an option. Also, the running game will be more effective with Jenkins gone.

NEW YORK OFFENSE: There’s a reason Bill Belichick didn’t want to punt the ball away to Peyton Manning – who would have just scored anyway – and it’s the fact that the Patriots defense isn’t very good.

In its past four games, New England has surrendered an average of 127 rushing yards. The Colts don’t have much of a ground attack, so you didn’t see it there, but Thomas Jones should have a decent outing Sunday afternoon, setting up short-yardage opportunities for Mark Sanchez.

Sanchez hasn’t exactly been lights out lately, but he’s had a 7.1 YPA or better in his past three starts. He should have plenty of time in the pocket to locate Braylon Edwards and Jerricho Cotchery downfield; the Patriots really struggle to get pressure on the quarterback (16 sacks on the year).

RECAP: I find this really interesting: The last time Brady lost to the Colts in the regular season was back in 2006. The following week, the Patriots played the Jets at home as 10-point favorites. Pretty insane, huh?

You seldom bet against Brady and Belichick off a loss, but I think this is an exception. The Patriots threw the kitchen sink at the Colts. They showed Peyton Manning things he didn’t recognize. They led 31-14 and had that game in the bag. Unfortunately, they blew it.

This is a big flat spot for New England. I can’t see the team summoning the same level of energy again versus a Jets team that will be desperate for a victory.

Oh, and it won’t be the first time the Patriots fall flat on their face after losing to the Colts. The final score of that aforementioned 2006 Jets game? New York 17, New England 14.

The Psychology. Edge: Jets.

The Patriots will be really flat after losing to the Colts. The last two times they went down to Indianapolis, they were pretty unimpressive (1-1 ATS). This is a must-win for the Jets.

The Vegas. Edge: Jets.

Everyone expects Tom Brady and Bill Belichick to rebound.

Percentage of money on New England: 87% (153,000 bets)

The Trends. Edge: Patriots.

History: Patriots have won 11 of the last 14 meetings.

Patriots are 28-16 ATS vs. AFC East opponents since 2001.

Patriots are 44-34 ATS at home under Bill Belichick.

Tom Brady is 105-31 as a starter (81-53 ATS).

Tom Brady is 20-7 ATS off a loss.

Tom Brady is 12-3 ATS off a loss since 2003.

Opening Line: Patriots -10.

Opening Total: 45.

Weather: Cloudy, 43 degrees. Light wind.

For more trends, check out the Gaming Matchups or the Expanded NFL Analysis.

Week 11 NFL Pick: Patriots 23, Jets 20
Jets +10.5 (1 Unit) — Incorrect; -$110
Under 45.5 (0 Units) — Correct; $0
Patriots 31, Jets 14

Cincinnati Bengals (7-2) at Oakland Raiders (2-7)
Line: Bengals by 10. Total: 36.
Walt’s Projected Line (Before Week 10): Bengals -9.5.
Walt’s Projected Line (After Week 10): Bengals -11.
Sunday, 4:15 ET

The Game. Edge: Bengals.

NFL Injuries: AFC Injuries | NFC Injuries

My e-mail address is published on this site, so I tend to get more spam and junk mail than the average person. Each week, I’m going to find a hilarious e-mail and post it for your entertainment. Here is this week’s edition:

Dear,
I am Mr Festus Williams,nationality Zimbabwean,residing currently in uk.
I want to know if can be possible for us to know each other,if that is acceptable,try and confirm to me as to enable us to start immediate communication together. Please your attension is needed.

Regards,
Festus Williams

So, a man named Festus Williams, who was born in Zimbabwe and currently residing in England, wants to get to know me and start communicating with me? Larry Johnson might suggest that this guy rides loud motorcycles and annoys people. I say: Not that there’s anything wrong with that.

CINCINNATI OFFENSE: These are not the Bengals of old. You may have just rolled your eyes and said “duh,” but I’m not talking about the 7-2 record. I’m referring to the offense.

Cincinnati impressively won at Pittsburgh this past weekend, but the team did it with all defense and very little offense. The offense didn’t score a single touchdown. A week earlier, the Bengals mustered 17 points against the Ravens. Throw away the victory against the Bears on Oct. 25, and Cincinnati hasn’t topped 18 points since Oct. 4 – a 23-20 overtime victory at Cleveland.

The Bengals are no longer an offense juggernaut capable of putting up points at will. They control the line of scrimmage on both sides of the ball and pound away with their running game. While this is better for the long haul, it makes it difficult to lay lots tons of points with them.

It’s even harder when you consider that Cedric Benson is likely out for this game. Bernard Scott will probably get the start, and I just don’t have the confidence that he’ll be able to run all over Oakland like Benson would. The Raiders suck against the rush, but Scott is not that talented.

If Carson Palmer has to throw on third-and-long situations, the Bengals could be in trouble. The one thing the Raiders can do is put the clamps on receivers with Nnamdi Asomugha and Chris Johnson, as Donovan McNabb and the Eagles learned back in October.

OAKLAND OFFENSE: Tom Cable announced Monday that he’s thinking of making the switch to Charlie Frye. I say do it. Frye may not have a tenth of the talent that JaMarcus Russell possesses, but Russell is one of the dumbest human beings on the planet. Unlike Russell, Frye will actually watch film and read opposing defenses.

Whether it’s Russell or Frye, it’s hard to imagine Oakland putting up any points here. The Raiders run the ball well, but the Bengals rank sixth against the rush.

The key here is whether Russell or Frye commits multiple turnovers. If that happens, Oakland will not cover the spread. On the other hand, if the Raiders are careful with the football, they’ll have a chance of hanging with the Bengals.

RECAP: I can’t believe I’m doing this, but I’m taking the Raiders. As mentioned earlier, the Bengals don’t exactly score at will on their opponents, so laying double digits with them, especially on the road, is a tough proposition.

I also have to think that Cincinnati will be flat here. Coming off back-to-back victories against the hated Ravens and Steelers, the Bengals could have problems getting up for this pathetic Oakland squad.

And the thing is, the Raiders haven’t been too pathetic lately. Throw out a 38-0 loss to the Jets in which Russell committed countless turnovers, and they’ve won by four, and lost by six and eight in their past three games. They’re not as completely inept as everyone is making them out to be.

The Psychology. Edge: Raiders.

JaMarcus Russell will be focused here after being benched. Possible Let-Down Alert for the Bengals off two tough divisional victories.

The Vegas. Edge: Raiders.

I don’t think anyone would take 3:1 odds on the Raiders +9.5 at this point.

Percentage of money on Cincinnati: 76% (143,000 bets)

The Trends. Edge: None.

KOing the Champ: Teams beating a Super Bowl champion are 6-11 ATS on the road the next week since 2000.

Road Rules: Marvin Lewis is 5-0 ATS on the road after a road win.

Bengals are 5-11 ATS as a favorite since 2007.

Bengals are 1-6 ATS as a favorite of 3.5 or more since 2007.

Raiders are 12-31 ATS at home the previous 43 instances.

Opening Line: Bengals -9.5.

Opening Total: 35.5.

Weather: Partly cloudy, 59 degrees. Light wind.

For more trends, check out the Gaming Matchups or the Expanded NFL Analysis.

Week 11 NFL Pick: Bengals 17, Raiders 13
Raiders +10 (1 Unit) — Correct; +$100
Under 36 (0 Units) — Incorrect; $0
Raiders 20, Bengals 17

San Diego Chargers (6-3) at Denver Broncos (6-3)
Line: Chargers by 5. Total: 41.5.
Walt’s Projected Line (Before Week 10): Broncos -1.

Walt’s Projected Line (After Week 10): Chargers -3.
Sunday, 4:15 ET

The Game. Edge: Chargers.

NFL Injuries: AFC Injuries | NFC Injuries

It’s time for the Video of the Week segment. I’m listing The Origin of Nom Nom Nom for three reasons:

1. It’s Nom Nom Nom!

2. Imagine the character that is being interviewed is Romeo Crennel. I’d love to see someone splice Crennel into that interview.

3. Doesn’t the interviewee sound like Mr. Miyagi? I know Mr. Miyagi passed away a few years ago, but this gives me hope that we could get a new awesome Karate Kid movie where Cookie Monster’s voice actor plays the role of Mr. Miyagi. Sure, Daniel LaRusso is like 50 years now, but they could sell me on a 50-year-old Johnny Lawrence bullying LaRusso around. “Put him in an old-age home, Johnny! Hahaha!”

DENVER OFFENSE: As of Wednesday afternoon, there is no line on this game. Kyle Orton is questionable with an ankle. Josh McDaniels won’t say anything, so we probably won’t know anything until much later in the week. But because the injury didn’t look too bad and because Orton handled the starting quarterback press conference on Wednesday, let’s assume that Orton will start.

The last time these teams met, Orton did a great job moving the chains, going 20-of-29 for 229 yards and two touchdowns. Orton wasn’t asked to do much because the Broncos ran well enough to always keep Orton in manageable down-and-distance situations.

Something the Chargers have improved upon since their bye has been their run defense. They’ve held each of their opponents to four yards per carry or less – something they simply couldn’t do the first five weeks of the season.

Orton is a limited quarterback, so he won’t be able to convert many third-and-long situations, especially with the declining play of his offensive line. The front, missing Ryan Harris and suffering from poor play from the left guard position, has given up seven sacks the past three weeks. Prior to this stretch, Denver had allowed just nine sacks all year. This is not good news for the Broncos because Shawne Merriman is apparently healthy again.

SAN DIEGO OFFENSE: It’s amazing what a running back can do with some quality blocking. LaDainian Tomlinson’s career was pronounced dead by many prior to Sunday’s contest against the Eagles. But Tomlinson received sound blocking for the first time all year, allowing him to look like the LT of old. He rushed for 96 yards and two touchdowns.

Denver’s defense, once one of the league’s best versus the run, has allowed close to 500 rushing yards the past three weeks. Once again, it’s not good news for the Broncos that the Chargers have re-discovered how to do something.

With Tomlinson presumably running well, Philip Rivers should enjoy torching an old, declining Denver secondary. Since the bye, Rivers has thrown for nine touchdowns and three interceptions, on a completion percentage of 67.2 and a YPA of 8.3. There’s no stopping him now.

RECAP: The Broncos are reeling and the Chargers are playing with fire. The former once held a three-game lead, while the latter was dismissed by many as having no chance to win the AFC West. Hmm… when has this happened before?

San Diego will beat Denver again late in the season as they always do. I’m assuming the Chargers will be favored by 1-3, so I’m laying the points.

SUNDAY UPDATE: A line has finally been posted. It opened at -4 and is now -5.5 in some places. It looks like Vegas is confident that Chris Simms won’t play. I still love the Chargers.

The Psychology. Edge: Chargers.

We’ve seen this before. Broncos reeling. Chargers on fire. All the pressure is on Denver.

The Vegas. Edge: Broncos.
Slight edge on the Chargers.

Percentage of money on San Diego: 62% (45,000 bets)

The Trends. Edge: Chargers.

History: Chargers have won 5 of the last 7 meetings.

Broncos are 5-11 ATS in November home games since 2000.

Opening Line: Chargers -4.

Opening Total: 43.

Weather: Partly cloudy, 48 degrees. Light wind.

For more trends, check out the Gaming Matchups or the Expanded NFL Analysis.

Week 11 NFL Pick: Chargers 38, Broncos 14
Chargers -5 (4 Units) — Correct; +$400
Over 41.5 (0 Units) — Incorrect; $0
Chargers 32, Broncos 3

Philadelphia Eagles (5-4) at Chicago Bears (4-5)
Line: Eagles by 3. Total: 45.
Walt’s Projected Line (Before Week 10): Eagles -3.
Walt’s Projected Line (After Week 10): Eagles -3.
Sunday, 8:20 ET

The Game. Edge: Eagles.

NFL Injuries: AFC Injuries | NFC Injuries

Last year, I kept you up to date with Bo-Bo’s Fantasy Team (click the link for details). This year, I’m doing the same.

Coming off his first two-game winning streak ever as a fantasy owner, Bo-Bo was confident. He even voted for himself to beat a vaunted 4-5 squad.

Unfortunately, things returned to normal, as Bo-Bo went down, 110-74. The good news is that Bo-Bo finally removed Patrick Crayton from his lineup.

Here are his starters and their respective point totals:

QB: Joe Flacco (3)
RB1: Michael Turner (13)
RB2: Frank Gore (20)
WR1: Earl Bennett (2)
WR2: Chris Chambers (6)
WR3: Laveranues Coles (6)
TE: Todd Heap (4)
K: David Akers (14)
DEF: Vikings Defense (9)

Bo-Bo is now 3-7. Perhaps he’ll put together a three-game winning streak next year. He has a chance just as long as he doesn’t start Crayton, Kelley Washington and Jacoby Jones for several weeks in a row again.

PHILADELPHIA OFFENSE: Andy Reid is smarter than everyone. His genius is unparalleled. So, when reporters ask him why he doesn’t run the ball at all, he looks at them for a few seconds, laughs to himself and then moves on to the next question. When the media asks him why he kicks meaningless field goals, he scoffs at the clueless peons.

Reid will continue to pass the ball non-stop, kick meaningless field goals, call predictable plays on third-and-short and waste timeouts. That’s just what he does. Fortunately for Philly fans, the Eagles get to play Chicago’s pathetic defense this week.

Excluding their games against the Browns and 49ers, the Bears have really struggled to stop they pass. They also can’t get to the quarterback (18 sacks), so the downgrade Philadelphia has in pass protection going from Brian Westbrook to LeSean McCoy in blitz pickups won’t be as prevalent here as it will be in future games.

It’s worth noting that Chicago has surrendered 624 rushing yards in their past four games, but that doesn’t matter because Reid thinks running the ball is for losers.

CHICAGO OFFENSE: The Bears’ biggest problem is the offensive line, which can neither pass protect nor run block. Philadelphia just made LaDainian Tomlinson look like he was 25 again, but that won’t matter here because Matt Forte won’t have any running lanes to navigate through.

The Eagles love to bring pressure (29 sacks), so Jay Cutler will have to hurry some throws. That just means more interceptions. It really is a shame because Cutler is a talented quarterback; he simply has no help from his line or his pedestrian receivers who either fall down or can’t get open. The Bears don’t have a draft pick until the third round, so I don’t know how they’re going to help him.

RECAP: I took some heat from the two Christophers (check the Browns-Lions write-up) about not being able to read the Eagles. I thought I made the right read, but simply underestimated how hot the Chargers were. It didn’t help that the Eagles screwed up every time they reached the red zone.

This is the game Philly typically wins. Everyone in the City of Obscenely High Taxation wants Reid fired. The national media is making fun of Reid’s clock management. Everyone has jumped off the Eagles bandwagon.

The one thing Reid does well is bounce back and prove everyone wrong when the chips are down. I’ll be shocked if the Eagles lose this game.

The Psychology. Edge: Eagles.

Perhaps this will be the effort I was expecting from the Eagles last week. Everyone in Philadelphia wants Andy Reid fired. This is when the Eagles are at their best. They are expected to win this game though, so not entirely the same situation. .

The Vegas. Edge: Bears.

No one wants any part of five-interception Jay Cutler.

Percentage of money on Philadelphia: 91% (116,000 bets)

The Trends. Edge: Eagles.

Road Rules: Andy Reid is 7-2 ATS on the road after a road loss.

Eagles are 60-36 ATS vs. NFC opponents since 2001.

Eagles are 27-17 ATS vs. teams with losing records since 2001.

Donovan McNabb is 23-12 ATS after a loss since 2001.

Donovan McNabb is 36-23 ATS on the road since 2001.

Andy Reid is 8-5 ATS off two consecutive losses.

Bears are 6-0 ATS off back-to-back losses since 2005.

Bears are 20-11 ATS in November since 2001.

Opening Line: Eagles -1.

Opening Total: 45.

Weather: Partly cloudy, 46 degrees. Light wind.

For more trends, check out the Gaming Matchups or the Expanded NFL Analysis.

Week 11 NFL Pick: Eagles 31, Bears 20
Eagles -3 (3 Units) — Correct; +$300
Over 45 (0 Units) — Incorrect; $0
Eagles 24, Bears 20

Tennessee Titans (3-6) at Houston Texans (5-4)
Line: Texans by 4. Total: 48.
Walt’s Projected Line (Before Week 10): Texans -4.5.
Walt’s Projected Line (After Week 10): Texans -3.
Monday, 8:30 ET

The Game. Edge: None.
NFL Injuries: AFC Injuries | NFC Injuries

This week on Monday Night Football, we get to see the Titans and Texans battle in what should be a thrilling game. Unfortunately, we’re going to have Mike Tirico, Ron Jaworski and Jon Gruden calling the shots instead of Emmitt, Herm and Philadelphia Eagles Television Network guy Kevin Reilly (a huge homer who called Maurice Jones-Drew “Maurice Drew-Jones” and Torry Holt “Terry Holt”). Here’s how it would sound like if Reilly, Emmitt and Herm were in the booth for this game:

Kevin Reilly: Welcome to Houston, the southern-most city in the world! Tonight, the Tennessee Titans battle the Houston Texans. A few years ago the Titans and Texans used to be one team, but the NFL split them apart. Guys, do you think the NFL will ever reunite these two lost souls?

Emmitt: Kevin Rogers, I do not know where you get your informations, but these seem to be inaccuratement to me. If I know the history of the National League of Football correctly, the Houston Texas once played in the city of Tennessee and then move to Houston. Then, the team that live in Houston, move to the city of Tennessee. Kevin Rogers, if you do not know your history, you are doom to… uhh… not know it.

Reilly: Thanks, Emmitt. I thought I had that one wrong. Coach, what’s the key to the game?

Herm: I know the key…

Reilly: Emmitt, let’s ignore that stupid coach. What say you and I ditch this stupid broadcast, grab some drinks and talk football?

Emmitt: No offensive, Kevin Rogers, but I would rather have been debacled myself than drink beer, licorice and other alcohols with you. Maybe Herm Johnson will go to bar with you.

Reilly: Go to a bar with Herm? Ha! I’d rather be hung from my balls.

Herm: I’ll go! I’ll go! I’ll go! I’ll go! I’ll go! I’ll go! Take me! I’ll go! I want to go! Guess who wants to go? I want to go! I’ll go right now! I’ll buy drinks! I’ll buy food! I’ll pay cover! Take me! Here’s why you should take me! Here’s why! I’ll tell you why! Here’s why! I… uhh…

Reilly: No way, Jose! We’ll be back after a word from our local sponsors!

TENNESSEE OFFENSE: Adrian Peterson is still the best running back in the league, but Chris Johnson is the most dangerous one. Like Barry Sanders, he can go the distance every time he touches the ball, and he effortlessly turns what should be losses of three or four into gains of 10. The Bills looked like the right side last week – it was tied 17-17 at the beginning of the fourth quarter – but Johnson is so damn good that he just broke free too many times.

Vince Young’s presence in the backfield makes Johnson even more potent because defenses have to worry about Young taking off. The Texans have been pretty decent versus the rush ever since they signed Bernard Pollard, but the 49ers were top 10 against the run, and even they couldn’t contain Johnson. I don’t think anyone can except for maybe the Steelers.

Young is also doing a great job converting third downs and refraining from committing turnovers. All that time off allowed Young to take a step back and learn how to play the quarterback position in the NFL. The Texans don’t exactly have an opportunistic secondary, so I think Young will continue to thrive.

HOUSTON OFFENSE: Tennessee’s defense has improved since the bye, but I wouldn’t exactly call the Jaguars, 49ers and Bills tough offensive opponents. The one dynamic threat on each of those teams is Maurice Jones-Drew, and he was able to run for 177 yards on just eight carries against the Titans.

The Texans don’t have much of a ground attack, but Matt Schaub should be able to put together a solid performance versus Tennessee’s secondary. The Titans have been better against the pass ever since they placed Rod Hood in the lineup, but as noted before, it’s not like Jacksonville, San Francisco or Buffalo had the firepower to expose him.

RECAP: This seems like an evenly matched game to me where both defenses will have problems stopping the opposing offense.

However, there is a major psychological advantage here in Tennessee’s favor. The Texans are a young team with no playoff success. They’re not used to playing on a national stage, let alone being favored in such a matchup.

This is a ton of pressure on this young Houston squad. I just don’t think they’ll be able to live up to it. At least not yet.

The Titans, meanwhile, are hot, and as preposterous as it sounds, they really believe that they can finish the year at 10-6. I learned my lesson last week; I’m not getting in their way.

The Psychology. Edge: Titans.

The Titans are hot and have nothing to lose. Lots of pressure on the Texans to perform as Monday night favorites.

The Vegas. Edge: Texans.
The public is on the Vince Young-Chris Johnson bandwagon.

Percentage of money on Tennessee: 62% (231,000 bets)

The Trends. Edge: Titans.

History: Titans have won 11 of the 15 meetings (Texans won the last 2).

Titans are 19-11 ATS as underdogs in the post-Steve McNair era.

Vince Young is 21-11 as a starter (21-11 ATS).

Vince Young is 8-3 ATS as a road dog.

Texans are 8-5 ATS in November home games.

Opening Line: Texans -3.5.

Opening Total: 48.

Weather: Retractable Roof.

For more trends, check out the Gaming Matchups or the Expanded NFL Analysis.

Week 11 NFL Pick: Titans 27, Texans 24
Titans +4 (5 Units) — Correct; +$500
Over 48 (1 Unit) — Incorrect; -$110
Titans 20, Texans 17

Week 11 NFL Picks – Early Games
Dolphins at Panthers, Redskins at Cowboys, Browns at Lions, 49ers at Packers, Steelers at Chiefs, Falcons at Giants, Saints at Buccaneers, Bills at Jaguars, Colts at Ravens, Seahawks at Vikings

Prop/Teaser/Parlay Picks
A list of some of my favorite team/player prop picks this week
(Offense & defensive ROY picks to be counted whenver winners are announced.) Picks carried over on a week-to-week basis will be in black.

Moneyline Dog: Browns +160 (1 Unit) — Incorrect; -$100

Moneyline Dog: Titans +180 (1 Unit) — Correct; +$180

Psychological Edge Parlay: Jaguars -8.5, Vikings -10.5, Jets +10.5, Chargers -5, Eagles -3, Titans +4.5 (.5 Units to win 23.6) — Incorrect; -$50

NFL Picks - Nov. 15

2025 NFL Mock Draft - Nov. 13

NFL Power Rankings - Nov. 12

Fantasy Football Rankings - Sept. 4

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Last Week's NFL Picks Against The Spread (Week 11, 2024): 6-7 (-$1,275)
Last Week's 2-3 Unit NFL Picks (Week 11, 2024): 2-2 (+$65)
Last Week's 4-5 Unit NFL Picks (Week 11, 2024): 1-3 (-$905)
Last Week Over-Under (Week 11, 2024): 6-7-1 ($0)
Last Week's Prop/ML/Teaser/Parlay Picks (Week 11, 2024): -$435

2024 NFL Picks of the Month: 1-2, 50.0% (-$500)

2024 Season NFL Picks Against The Spread: 78-79-6, 49.7% (-$4,565)
2024 Season 2-3 Unit NFL Picks: 19-25-1, 43.2% (-$1,180)
2024 Season 4-5 Unit NFL Picks: 15-17, 46.9% (-$1,555)
2024 Season Over-Under: 76-74-2, 50.7% (+$95)
2024 Season Prop/ML/Teaser/Parlay Picks: -$165

1999 Season NFL Picks Against The Spread: 27-41-3 (39.7%)
2000 Season NFL Picks Against The Spread: 128-123-8 (51.0%)
2001 Season NFL Picks Against The Spread: 127-122-7 (51.0%)
2002 Season NFL Picks Against The Spread: 123-136-7 (47.5%)
2003 Season NFL Picks Against The Spread: 146-126-8 (53.7%)
2004 Season NFL Picks Against The Spread: 157-123-8 (56.1%)
2005 Season NFL Picks Against The Spread: 156-126-11 (55.3%)
2006 Season NFL Picks Against The Spread: 151-135-9 (52.8%)
2007 Season NFL Picks Against The Spread: 162-135-10, 54.5% (+$3,585)
2008 Season NFL Picks Against The Spread: 148-140-7, 51.4% (+$6,105)
2009 Season NFL Picks Against The Spread: 151-124-9, 54.9% (+$4,235)
2010 Season NFL Picks Against The Spread: 144-131-8, 52.4% (+$5,880)
2011 Season NFL Picks Against The Spread: 137-133-12, 50.7% (-$1,335)
2012 Season NFL Picks Against The Spread: 130-145-8, 47.3% (-$7,445)
2013 Season NFL Picks Against The Spread: 144-131-8, 52.4% (+$7,825)
2014 Season NFL Picks Against The Spread: 143-133-7, 51.8% (-$1,885)
2015 Season NFL Picks Against The Spread: 134-138-12, 49.3% (-$3,215)
2016 Season NFL Picks Against The Spread: 148-127-10, 53.8% (+$780)
2017 Season NFL Picks Against The Spread: 137-140-8, 49.5% (-$4,300)
2018 Season NFL Picks Against The Spread: 140-134-14, 51.3% (+$845)
2019 Season NFL Picks Against The Spread: 149-128-9, 53.6% (+$1,200)
2020 Season NFL Picks Against The Spread: 138-124-7, 52.7% (+$9,350)
2021 Season NFL Picks Against The Spread: 153-141-2, 51.9% (+$210)
2022 Season NFL Picks Against The Spread: 154-134-8, 53.5% (+$9,860)
2023 Season NFL Picks Against The Spread: 144-141-7, 50.5% (-$7,285)

2002 Season 2-3 Unit NFL Picks: 41-49-2 (45.6%)
2003 Season 2-3 Unit NFL Picks: 52-51-2 (50.5%)
2004 Season 2-3 Unit NFL Picks: 65-44-3 (59.6%)
2005 Season 2-3 Unit NFL Picks: 77-61-1 (55.8%)
2006 Season 2-3 Unit NFL Picks: 65-61-4 (51.6%)
2007 Season 2-3 Unit NFL Picks: 83-59-5, 58.5% (+$4,110)
2008 Season 2-3 Unit NFL Picks: 44-57-3, 43.6% (-$3,510)
2009 Season 2-3 Unit NFL Picks: 49-35-3, 58.3% (+$2,260)
2010 Season 2-3 Unit NFL Picks: 51-38-4, 57.3% (+$3,180)
2011 Season 2-3 Unit NFL Picks: 44-51-3, 46.3% (-$2,715)
2012 Season 2-3 Unit NFL Picks: 45-50-2, 47.4% (-$2,130)
2013 Season 2-3 Unit NFL Picks: 38-42, 47.5% (-$2,890)
2015 Season 2-3 Unit NFL Picks: 47-44-1, 51.6% (-$820)
2016 Season 2-3 Unit NFL Picks: 42-35-3, 54.5% (+$475)
2017 Season 2-3 Unit NFL Picks: 32-40-3, 43.8% (-$2,395)
2018 Season 2-3 Unit NFL Picks: 52-41-2, 55.9% (+$2,670)
2019 Season 2-3 Unit NFL Picks: 44-36-2, 55.0% (+$655)
2020 Season 2-3 Unit NFL Picks: 47-43-3, 52.2% (-$1,965)
2021 Season 2-3 Unit NFL Picks: 50-50, 50.0% (-$1,570)
2022 Season 2-3 Unit NFL Picks: 56-44-2, 56.0% (+$1,860)
2023 Season 2-3 Unit NFL Picks: 44-40-3, 52.4% (+$285)

2002 Season 4-5 Unit NFL Picks: 11-12 (47.8%)
2003 Season 4-5 Unit NFL Picks: 16-13-1 (55.2%)
2004 Season 4-5 Unit NFL Picks: 18-11 (62.1%)
2005 Season 4-5 Unit NFL Picks: 25-22-1 (53.2%)
2006 Season 4-5 Unit NFL Picks: 21-29-1 (42.0%)
2007 Season 4-5 Unit NFL Picks: 35-30-2, 53.8% (+$420)
2008 Season 4-5 Unit NFL Picks: 39-26-2, 60.0% (+$4,055)
2009 Season 4-5 Unit NFL Picks: 29-26, 52.7% (+$330)
2010 Season 4-5 Unit NFL Picks: 32-22, 59.3% (+$4,790)
2011 Season 4-5 Unit NFL Picks: 14-14, 50.0% (-$1,260)
2012 Season 4-5 Unit NFL Picks: 14-21, 40.0% (-$3,650)
2013 Season 4-5 Unit NFL Picks: 17-9-3, 65.4% (+$2,970)
2015 Season 4-5 Unit NFL Picks: 17-16-2, 51.5% (-$1,120)
2016 Season 4-5 Unit NFL Picks: 21-22-5, 48.8% (-$1,465)
2017 Season 4-5 Unit NFL Picks: 20-22-1, 47.6% (-$1,595)
2018 Season 4-5 Unit NFL Picks: 27-32-1, 45.8% (-$4,735)
2019 Season 4-5 Unit NFL Picks: 37-27-2, 57.8% (+$2,185)
2020 Season 4-5 Unit NFL Picks: 37-22-1, 62.7% (+$5,515)
2021 Season 4-5 Unit NFL Picks: 32-32-1, 50.0% (-$725)
2022 Season 4-5 Unit NFL Picks: 41-30-1, 57.8% (+$3,725)
2023 Season 4-5 Unit NFL Picks: 32-27-1, 54.2% (-$1,310)

2001 Season Over-Under: 3-2 (60.0%)
2002 Season Over-Under: 121-91-3 (57.1%)
2003 Season Over-Under: 126-132-2 (48.8%)
2004 Season Over-Under: 139-124-4 (52.9%)
2005 Season Over-Under: 117-145-4 (44.7%)
2006 Season Over-Under: 129-132-5 (49.4%)
2007 Season Over-Under: 136-145-3, 48.4% (-$1,900)
2008 Season Over-Under: 137-125-6, 52.3% (+$860)
2009 Season Over-Under: 128-135-4, 48.7% (-$3,195)
2010 Season Over-Under: 128-135-5, 48.7% (-$5)
2011 Season Over-Under: 131-131-5, 50.0% (+$135)
2012 Season Over-Under: 125-121-5, 50.8% (+$30)
2013 Season Over-Under: 132-130-5, 50.4% (-$340)
2015 Season Over-Under: 143-119-5, 54.6% ($0)
2016 Season Over-Under: 123-141-1, 46.6% (+$95)
2017 Season Over-Under: 136-139-2, 49.5% (+$640)
2018 Season Over-Under: 118-128-3, 48.0% (-$225)
2019 Season Over-Under: 126-133-4, 48.6% (-$50)
2020 Season Over-Under: 141-122-6, 53.6% ($0)
2021 Season Over-Under: 132-151-3, 46.6% ($0)
2022 Season Over-Under: 133-149-2, 47.2% (-$225)
2023 Season Over-Under: 145-135-3, 51.8% (+$200)

2007 Season Prop/ML/Teaser/Parlay Picks: +$1,035
2008 Season Prop/ML/Teaser/Parlay Picks: +$1,775
2009 Season Prop/ML/Teaser/Parlay Picks: +$865
2010 Season Prop/ML/Teaser/Parlay Picks: -$200
2011 Season Prop/ML/Teaser/Parlay Picks: +$590
2012 Season Prop/ML/Teaser/Parlay Picks: -$1,685
2013 Season Prop/ML/Teaser/Parlay Picks: +$2,245
2015 Season Prop/ML/Teaser/Parlay Picks: -$855
2016 Season Prop/ML/Teaser/Parlay Picks: -$275
2017 Season Prop/ML/Teaser/Parlay Picks: -$510
2018 Season Prop/ML/Teaser/Parlay Picks: +$1,495
2019 Season Prop/ML/Teaser/Parlay Picks: -$1,715
2020 Season Prop/ML/Teaser/Parlay Picks: +$4,975
2021 Season Prop/ML/Teaser/Parlay Picks: +$3,455
2022 Season Prop/ML/Teaser/Parlay Picks: +$5,720
2023 Season Prop/ML/Teaser/Parlay Picks: -$2,565

2006 NFL Picks of the Month: 3-3 (50%)
2007 NFL Picks of the Month: 3-3, 50.0% (-$400)
2008 NFL Picks of the Month: 6-1, 85.7% (+$3,720)
2009 NFL Picks of the Month: 3-2, 60.0% (+$640)
2010 NFL Picks of the Month: 2-4, 33.3% (-$1,810)
2011 NFL Picks of the Month: 5-2, 71.4% (+$1,870)
2012 NFL Picks of the Month: 3-2, 60.0% (+$560)
2013 NFL Picks of the Month: 6-0, 100% (+$3,900)
2014 NFL Picks of the Month: 2-4, 33.3% (-$1,350)
2015 NFL Picks of the Month: 3-3, 50.0% (-$100)
2016 NFL Picks of the Month: 5-1, 83.3% (+$2,780)
2017 NFL Picks of the Month: 4-2, 66.7% (+$1,040)
2018 NFL Picks of the Month: 4-3, 57.1% (-$640)
2019 NFL Picks of the Month: 3-3-1, 50.0% (-$625)
2020 NFL Picks of the Month: 3-2, 60.0% (+$665)
2021 NFL Picks of the Month: 2-3, 40.0% (-$920)
2022 NFL Picks of the Month: 3-4, 42.9% (-$1,615)
2023 NFL Picks of the Month: 2-5, 28.6% (-$2,550)

Career NFL Picks Against The Spread: 3,499-3,231-202, 52.0% (+$17,105)
Career 2-3 Unit NFL Picks: 1,126-1,010-57 (52.7%)
Career 4-5 Unit NFL Picks: 568-502-25 (53.1%)
Career Over-Under: 2,935-2,908-76 (50.2%)
Career Second-Half NFL Picks: 23-16-1 (59.0%)
Career NFL Picks of the Month: 47-36-1 (56.6%)

My Team-by-Team ATS Record
This section shows how well I do when picking each team this year. The purpose is to see how well I read each team. Pushes are not displayed. Winning/losing streak in parentheses.

Cowboys: 5-3	Bears: 4-5	Bucs: 6-4	49ers: 6-3
Eagles: 4-5	Lions: 8-1	Falcons: 5-5	Cardinals: 8-2
Giants: 3-6	Packers: 5-3	Panthers: 4-6	Rams: 4-5
Redskins: 4-5	Vikings: 3-6	Saints: 5-5	Seahawks: 6-2

Bills: 3-7	Bengals: 2-8	Colts: 5-5	Broncos: 6-4
Dolphins: 3-6	Browns: 3-6	Jaguars: 2-7	Chargers: 5-3
Jets: 5-5	Ravens: 4-5	Texans: 4-6	Chiefs: 3-5
Patriots: 5-3	Steelers: 3-6	Titans: 5-3	Raiders: 4-5

Divisional: 18-22 (2011-23: 608-561)	2x Game Edge: 14-13 (2011-23: 401-387)	2x Motivation Edge: 30-24 (2011-23: 510-441)	2x Spread Edge: 18-27 (2011-23: 239-211)
2x Vegas Edge: 30-41 (2011-23: 448-446)	2x Trend Edge: 12-7 (2011-23: 321-293)	Double Edge: 11-16 (2011-23: 207-185)	Triple Edge: 4-7 (2011-23: 33-37)