NFL Picks Against the Spread: Week 11, 2009

NFL Picks (Preseason 2009): 8-7-2 (+$130)
NFL Picks (Week 1, 2009): 9-7 (+$285)
NFL Picks (Week 2, 2009): 10-6 (+$1,860)
NFL Picks (Week 3, 2009): 13-3 (+$2,095)
NFL Picks (Week 4, 2009): 10-4 (+$2,040)
NFL Picks (Week 5, 2009): 8-6 (+$895)
NFL Picks (Week 6, 2009): 5-9 (-$730)
NFL Picks (Week 7, 2009): 5-7-1 (-$1,010)
NFL Picks (Week 8, 2009): 7-6 (-$390)
NFL Picks (Week 9, 2009): 9-4 (+$1,120)
NFL Picks (Week 10, 2009): 7-7-1 (+$15)

NFL Picks (2009): 91-66-4 (+$6,310)
NFL Picks (2008): 136-125-6 (+$4,330)
If you don’t quite understand the line, total or anything else, go to my Sports Betting FAQ.

Vegas betting action updated Nov. 23, 4:25 p.m. ET.

Go to Week 11 NFL Picks – Late Games

Miami Dolphins (4-5) at Carolina Panthers (4-5)
Line: Panthers by 3. Total: 42.
Walt’s Projected Line (Before Week 10): Panthers -3.
Walt’s Projected Line (After Week 10): Panthers -3.
Thursday, 8:20 ET

The Game. Edge: Panthers.
NFL Injuries: AFC Injuries | NFC Injuries

NFL Week 10 Recap: Though I went 7-7-1, I still somehow managed to win .15 Units ($15). Definitely going to buy some awesome things with that cash.

Despite the “winning” week, I thought I sucked because I lost two of my top three plays (won on Tampa Bay; lost on Atlanta and Philadelphia). I learned something from the Falcons-Panthers game, but I still maintain that I made the right read in the Eagles-Chargers contest. The Eagles actually out-gained San Diego, but they shot themselves in the foot repeatedly in the red zone. They settled for way too many field goals and consequently fell into a large deficit.

MIAMI OFFENSE: Both teams suffered major injuries last week. Ronnie Brown went down with an ankle, and it looks like he’s going to be out for a while.

This is a major blow for the Dolphins. Not only is Brown a talented player; he’s the centerpiece of their Wildcat offense. Ricky Williams is obviously good enough to run the ball effectively – Carolina’s defense is 23rd versus the rush – but I have my doubts that Miami will be able to do any of its Wildcat tricks with Brown out of the lineup, especially traveling on a short work week.

The Dolphins really need to establish the run because the Panthers secondary is outstanding. They recently forced Kurt Warner and Matt Ryan into seven interceptions. Chad Henne has just two career road starts, and he’s a combined 31-of-55 for 331 yards (6.0 YPA), one touchdown and seven sacks in those two games. If Jake Long can’t keep Julius Peppers out of the backfield, Miami could really struggle to move the chains.

CAROLINA OFFENSE: The injury the Panthers suffered was to Pro Bowl left tackle Jordan Gross, who is out for the year. While this loss will really hurt Carolina, I was encouraged that they were able to run the ball and put some points on the board after Gross left the game.

That said, there’s a huge difference between the Falcons defense and the Dolphins defense. Miami is fifth versus the rush, so while Carolina still has a very good offensive line, they’ll find it a lot more difficult to run the ball this week.

Of course that means that Jake Delhomme will have to throw more often. Now, before you cringe and dump all of your money on the visitor, consider that Delhomme hasn’t thrown an interception in the past three weeks. He’s gradually gotten better, and he was even 15-of-24 for 195 yards (8.1 YPA) and two touchdowns versus Atlanta. Obviously his son is at home, safe and sound.

The Dolphins have two rookie corners, so Delhomme could have another solid outing, especially if the Panthers run the ball behind Jeff Otah somewhat well.

RECAP: This is a really tough spot for the Dolphins. Not only are they traveling on a short week; they have only a few days to prepare for a hot Carolina squad without their Wildcat centerpiece.

Given that this is a weeknight game, the Panthers will be able to feed off of the emotion from the crowd. Meanwhile, going into this contest, Tony Sparano is 0-7 against the spread against NFC teams.

The Psychology. Edge: Panthers.

Big game for both teams, though the Dolphins are at a huge disadvantage because they have to travel on a short work week without the key to their Wildcat offense. The Panthers will feed off their weeknight home crowd.

The Vegas. Edge: Dolphins.

The public is all over the Panthers. Perhaps everyone has become aware of my weeknight host theory.

Percentage of money on Carolina: 85% (76,000 bets)

The Trends. Edge: None.

Dolphins are 0-7 ATS vs. NFC teams under Tony Sparano.

Panthers are 13-24 ATS as a home favorite of 3.5 or more since 2001. ???

Panthers are 21-30 ATS at home since 2003.

Jake Delhomme is 14-22 ATS as a home favorite.

Opening Line: Panthers -3.5.

Opening Total: 43.5.

Weather: .

For more trends, check out the Gaming Matchups or the Expanded NFL Analysis.

Week 11 NFL Pick: Panthers 30, Dolphins 17
Panthers -3 (4 Units) — Incorrect; -$440
Over 42 (2 Units) — Incorrect; -$220
Dolphins 24, Panthers 17 – missed a great former coaches system that I love (Dan Henning) I apologize

Washington Redskins (3-6) at Dallas Cowboys (6-3)
Line: Cowboys by 11. Total: 41.5.
Walt’s Projected Line (Before Week 10): Cowboys -13.5.
Walt’s Projected Line (After Week 10): Cowboys -11.5.
Sunday, 1:00 ET

The Game. Edge: Cowboys.

NFL Injuries: AFC Injuries | NFC Injuries

Vegas Recap: For weeks, I’ve been saying that the sportsbooks were going to make a killing one of these Sundays because they lost millions of dollars one weekend about a month ago. Well, the public took it up the rear end in Week 10 (not that there’s anything wrong with that). Vegas won with the Rams, Buccaneers, Jaguars, Redskins, Panthers and Packers covering. They lost some cash with the Cardinals, Colts and Ravens beating the number, but going 6-3 with the juice on your side is very lucrative.

Now that the sportsbooks had a winning Sunday, I have a “feeling” that the public will win some money back this upcoming weekend. Just a “hunch.”

DALLAS OFFENSE: The Cowboys were essentially just shut out by a Packers defense that gave up 24 real points to the Buccaneers and Josh Freeman, who was making his first career start. That’s not exactly the tone you want to set in the first game of the second half of your season when you’ve been prone to December and January collapses.

Dallas simply shot itself in the foot too many times. Roy Williams fumbled deep in Green Bay territory and later dropped a key third-down reception. Offensive coordinator Jason Garrett, meanwhile, refused to run the ball even though his team was down no more than three points for at least three quarters of the game.

The Cowboys will re-establish their ground attack here. The Redskins are solid against the run, but they’ll have major problems stopping Marion Barber and company if Albert Haynesworth is out. Haynesworth injured his ankle twice against the Broncos and is questionable.

Haynesworth’s absence will be huge in deciding Tony Romo’s pass protection as well; right tackle Marc Colombo is out for 6-8 weeks, so Dallas needs all the help it can get here. If Haynesworth isn’t in the lineup, the Cowboys will be able to pay more attention to Andre Carter and Brian Orakpo, who have a combined 15 sacks.

If Romo gets time in the pocket, he’ll have a field day against the Redskins. Remember, Kyle Orton torched Washington’s secondary on two long touchdowns to a wide-open Brandon Marshall. Orton would have had a third big score to Eddie Royal, but overthrew him by a mile.

WASHINGTON OFFENSE: It was almost a miracle that the Redskins surrendered only three sacks to the Broncos. For a team that had allowed 28 sacks in eight games going into that contest, that’s pretty damn good.

So, what happened? Essentially, Washington ran the ball well with Ladell Betts, taking Jason Campbell out of third-and-long situations. The Broncos, who have now given up close to 500 rushing yards in their past three games, simply didn’t have the chance to compile a large number of sacks.

The Cowboys, on the other hand, have contained ground attacks really well lately. The last time they’ve surrendered more than 105 rushing yards in a single game was in Week 7 against the Falcons, and that was only because of a long Jason Snelling run. Michael Turner was limited to just 50 yards on 18 carries in that contest.

If Betts can’t run the ball, Campbell will have to convert obvious passing downs with DeMarcus Ware bursting through his horrific offensive line. Even a cunning Bingo announcer won’t be able to do anything about that.

RECAP: Though Wade Phillips usually sucks after losing as a favorite, the Cowboys will win this game as long as they can keep Washington from running the ball effectively.

I do like the points, however. The Redskins have been playing better ever since Daniel Snyder hired the Bingo guy to run his offense. They have nothing to lose here and they always play the Cowboys tough. In fact, the Redskins have covered as double-digit underdogs the past two times they’ve gone into Dallas.

SURVIVOR PICK: I really considered the Cowboys until some news broke Tuesday afternoon. Stay tuned for my survivor pick.

The Psychology. Edge: Redskins.

The Redskins have nothing to lose here. The Cowboys just lost for the first time in a while and could be doubting themselves.

The Vegas. Edge: Cowboys.
I’m really surprised that the public favors Washington.

Percentage of money on Washington: 64% (141,000 bets)

The Trends. Edge: Redskins.

History: Redskins have won 5 of the last 8 meetings.

Loser Coach: Wade “Mr. Turkey Neck” Phillips is 2-5 ATS after losing as a favorite.

Redskins are 7-4 ATS as divisional underdogs since 2007.

Cowboys are 10-7 ATS after a loss since 2006.

Tony Romo is 24-11 ATS as a starter before Dec. 1.

Tony Romo is 6-10 ATS as a favorite of -7 or more excluding Thanksgiving (3-0 on Thanksgiving).

Opening Line: Cowboys -13.

Opening Total: 41.5.

Weather: Retractable Roof.

For more trends, check out the Gaming Matchups or the Expanded NFL Analysis.

Week 11 NFL Pick: Cowboys 26, Redskins 20
Redskins +11 (1 Unit) — Correct; +$100
Over 41.5 (0 Units) — Incorrect; $0
Cowboys 7, Redskins 6

Cleveland Browns (1-8) at Detroit Lions (1-8)
Line: Lions by 3.5. Total: 37.5.
Walt’s Projected Line (Before Week 10): Lions -3.
Walt’s Projected Line (After Week 10): Lions -3.
Sunday, 1:00 ET

The Game. Edge: Browns.

NFL Injuries: AFC Injuries | NFC Injuries

As mentioned earlier, I won a grand total of $15 last week. Apparently, that wasn’t good enough for some people. I received several hate mails on Sunday and Monday. Here’s an example from Christopher I.:

Great call on the Eagles AGAIN this week. In fact, great call all year on all of your multiple unit picks.

It’s a good thing you waste, I’m sorry, I meant SPEND so much time and energy every day of the week leading up to Sunday to do research and write-ups on the games.

You’re reallyyyyyyyyy good at it….and it shows….

Here’s something even better – an exchange I had with hate-mailer Christopher M. who also didn’t like my horrible NFL picks.

DETROIT OFFENSE: The Browns offense did a great job of embarrassing itself on Monday night, but the defense played really well. They were solid versus the run and they put tons of pressure on Joe Flacco, who has the luxury of being stationed behind a very good offensive line.

Detroit’s offensive front sucks. The team has given up 29 sacks on the year, while Matthew Stafford still isn’t 100 percent off his knee injury. As the Detroit Free Press reported Tuesday, Stafford isn’t putting a lot of weight on his right knee. Let’s just hope that he doesn’t re-injure himself versus an underrated Cleveland defensive line that should be able to shut down Kevin Smith.

CLEVELAND OFFENSE: By now, you’ve heard the stat. The Browns have five offensive touchdowns in the last 60 quarters.

You can’t really defend something like that because there is no offensive talent whatsoever, however, it’s not like the Browns have been able to feast on a weak opponent yet this year. Thus far, they’ve battled the Ravens (twice), Bears (on the road), Packers, Steelers, Bengals, Broncos, Vikings and the Bills on a really windy day.

Detroit’s defense is an abomination. It ranks 31st against the run and 29th versus the pass. I think the Browns will be able to run the ball with Jamal Lewis and Chris Jennings. Brady Quinn may suck, but he should be able to convert his trademark third-and-short situations.

RECAP: Because Stafford is injured and his offensive line stinks, the best unit on the field in this game will be Cleveland’s defense. As you can probably tell, I like the Browns here.

The Lions really should not be favored. They’re a laughable 1-6 against the spread the last seven times they’ve been laying points. I like the Browns to win straight up off a home shutout.

The Psychology. Edge: None.
Both teams are in a flat spot. No edge.

The Vegas. Edge: Browns.

Apparently no one wants to take the Browns after they debacled themselves on Monday night.

Percentage of money on Detroit: 68% (121,000 bets)

The Trends. Edge: Browns.

Home Shutout: Teams coming off a home shutout are 18-8 ATS the following week since 2002.

Lions are 11-17 ATS vs. AFC opponents since 2001.

Lions are 3-11 ATS against losing teams the previous 14 instances.

Lions are 1-6 ATS as favorites since 2006.

Lions are 0-4 ATS before their Thanksgiving game since 2005.

Opening Line: Lions -3.5.

Opening Total: 38.5.

Weather: Dome.

For more trends, check out the Gaming Matchups or the Expanded NFL Analysis.

Week 11 NFL Pick: Browns 13, Lions 10
Browns +3.5 (3 Units) — Correct; +$300
Under 37.5 (0 Units) — Incorrect; $0
Lions 38, Browns 37

San Francisco 49ers (4-5) at Green Bay Packers (5-4)
Line: Packers by 6. Total: 42.
Walt’s Projected Line (Before Week 10): Packers -7.5.
Walt’s Projected Line (After Week 10): Packers -7.5.
Sunday, 1:00 ET

The Game. Edge: Packers.

NFL Injuries: AFC Injuries | NFC Injuries

Some NFL notes I can’t put anywhere else:

1. This is the third week in a row that we haven’t seen any cleavage from Rebecca Grant, the Verizon V-Cast chick who appears on FOX before the 1 p.m. games each Sunday.

I’m not the only one to notice this. Forum member AZChargersFan wrote, “Holy **** Walt. I actually got up in time for her and she is smokin but the lack of cleavage also disturbs me.”

Dear FOX, men everywhere suffer when Rebecca Grant doesn’t show off her body. Please help us, FOX.

2. Congrats to NFL Primetime for covering every game this week. However, Trey Wingo really screwed up when he said, “Something about the Chiefs: They beat the Raiders every time.” And later, “The Chiefs win the seventh straight time against the Raiders.”

Apparently, Oakland’s Week 2 victory over Kansas City didn’t count at all. Whoops.

3. And speaking of ESPN, I thought they did a piss-poor job of hyping up the Ravens-Browns game. They talked about boring stuff like Baltimore getting back into the playoff picture and Cleveland going with Brady Quinn. Zzzzzzzz, I know.

I would have asked Chris Mortensen to come up with another fake story to get people excited about this game – perhaps something about Ed Reed sleeping with the wives of Eric Mangini and Rob Ryan at the same time. Or maybe Ray Lewis kidnapping Quinn’s sister. Or John Harbaugh calling Mangini’s sleepovers “a super-corny snooze fest that only losers would enjoy.”

Mortensen fabricates tons of stories every week, so he definitely would have been up for this. ESPN simply lacked the foresight to get this done.

GREEN BAY OFFENSE: It’s funny when an offensive line gets praised after giving up four sacks. Aaron Rodgers has now been sacked 41 times and is now on pace to hit the turf 73 times. Hope the Packers have tons of Elmer’s Glue so they can put his joints back together at the end of the season.

The 49ers can stop the run pretty well – they’ve given up 90 rushing yards or less in three of their past four games – so Ryan Grant won’t be able to do much on the ground.

Rodgers will be asked to convert third-and-long situations once again, which hasn’t really worked too well against quality foes. The 49ers have just 17 sacks on the year, but Green Bay has proven that it can’t block anyone.

Something San Francisco needs to fix is its vulnerability to the screen pass. The Bears absolutely killed them with the screen multiple times last Thursday. We’ll see if the coaching staff worked on this during the week.

SAN FRANCISCO OFFENSE: The 49ers offense is pretty standard. Frank Gore will run the ball and Alex Smith will throw short junk. At one point during the Thursday night game, I wondered if Mike Singletary was aware that the forward pass had been invented yet.

Like the Packers, the 49ers have offensive line issues. Both tackles are out, which could be trouble for Smith on obvious passing downs. Green Bay produced five sacks against the Cowboys last week.

The 49ers will obviously need to run the ball effectively to keep Smith out of those third-and-long situations. Singletary will stick with pounding the rock with Gore, but I’m not sure he’ll have much success. Dating back to Oct. 5, the Packers have allowed more than 81 rushing yards to only one opponent (Vikings).

RECAP: This is one of three games I’m unsure of this week.

I don’t feel like the Packers deserve to be favored by 6.5. Sure, they have a winning record, but three of their victories have come against one-win teams (Browns, Lions, Rams). The fourth victory came in Week 1 against Chicago. That seemed impressive at the time, but we’ve learned that the Bears suck.

Does a team with only one really good win deserve to be favored by 6.5 points? No, but what the Packers did against the Cowboys really shocked me. They completely shut down a red-hot Tony Romo. There’s a chance the Packers could catch fire and reel off a bunch of fake wins on an easy schedule before traveling to Pittsburgh in Week 15. Then again, the Packers could just revert to the mediocre squad we’ve seen the first nine weeks of the year.

The Psychology. Edge: None.
No psychological edge found.

The Vegas. Edge: 49ers.

This line came up a bit short in my opinion. The public is pounding the “suddenly hot” Packers.

Percentage of money on Green Bay: 67% (139,000 bets)

The Trends. Edge: None.

Opening Line: Packers -5.5.

Opening Total: 42.5.

Weather: Sunny, 47 degrees. Light wind.

For more trends, check out the Gaming Matchups or the Expanded NFL Analysis.

Week 11 NFL Pick: Packers 24, 49ers 10
Packers -6 (.5 Units) — Push; $0
Under 42 (0 Units) — Incorrect; $0
Packers 30, 49ers 24

Pittsburgh Steelers (6-3) at Kansas City Chiefs (2-7)
Line: Steelers by 11. Total: 40.
Walt’s Projected Line (Before Week 10): Steelers -13.5.
Walt’s Projected Line (After Week 10): Steelers -13.
Sunday, 1:00 ET

The Game. Edge: Steelers.

NFL Injuries: AFC Injuries | NFC Injuries

Some college football notes I can’t put anywhere else:

1. Ohio State really pisses me off. Not because they went on the road and beat the Nittany Lions by 17. I’m a Penn State alumnus and I don’t care about that because going to the Rose Bowl (presented by Snickers) is pointless. No one cares about the Snickers Rose Bowl anymore. No one. It’s stupid. But Snickers is awesome.

What I’m pissed at Ohio State for is their 3-point victory over Iowa. How do you beat a tough opponent on the road by 17, and then come how and struggle versus a team playing with its backup quarterback? This J.Vandenberg fellow went 9-of-27 for 81 yards and a pick against freaking Northwestern, yet you let him put up 24 points?

Over the years, Jim Tressel has shaved some points and kicked meaningless field goals to cover high spreads, so when this contest went into overtime, I was hoping for the Buckeyes to lose. Unfortunately, they stopped J.Vandenberg and kicked a field goal to win.

Congrats, Sweater Vest A**hole. Have fun at your meaningless Snickers Rose Bowl.

2. After Ohio State failed to cover, Steve P. posted on my Facebook wall: “goddamn are you pitiful when it comes to college.”

You’re damn right, I’m pitiful when it comes to picking college football. In fact, I’ve had the following notice on my College Football Picks page for a few weeks now:

It’s time for my crappy college picks! Don’t waste time with stocks, bonds and IRAs! Just fade my college picks and send your kids to college with the money you can win betting against me!

Seriously, anyone who thinks they can make money off stupid kids with tons of acne and no armpit hair is insane. Just look at my college picks and go against me. You might be able to buy a house in a year or two by doing so.

3. Jim Harbaugh was criticized when he went for two up 27 against USC. Was it poor sportsmanship? Absolutely. Did I enjoy the move? Absolutely.

Who cares about sportsmanship? Sportsmanship is for sissies. Sports are all about competition. If you truly hate your opponent, your mission should be to embarrass them to the point that they want to quit. If I were Harbaugh and I happened to be up 70 on USC, I still would have gone for two.

It’s not like Harbaugh was battling some silly WAC squad. He was hired to beat USC and steal a few of their recruits. Well, mission accomplished. I don’t have a Heroes of the Week column, but if I did, Harbaugh would definitely be on it.

PITTSBURGH OFFENSE: Think Ben Roethlisberger will be happy to go from battling the Bengals defense to beating up on the Chiefs’ “stop” unit? While Cincinnati loves to control the line of scrimmage, Kansas City seems to shy away from it; the team has just 12 sacks on the year and ranks 28th versus the rush.

Rashard Mendenhall struggled to find any running room against the Bengals, but he’ll bounce back here. Ben Roethlisberger will easily be able to convert all sorts of third downs with the Chiefs concerned about stopping Mendenhall.

The only way the Steelers won’t score a bunch of points in this contest is if they commit several careless turnovers.

KANSAS CITY OFFENSE: The Chiefs suffered a huge blow Tuesday morning when it was announced that Dwayne Bowe will miss four weeks for violating the NFL’s substance policy. Darn, now Kansas City won’t make the playoffs this year for sure!

With Bowe out, the Steelers will be able to focus more on the decrepit Chris Chambers and untalented Lance Long. Of course, neither Chambers nor Long will matter if Matt “The Backdoor Bandit II” Cassel doesn’t get any time in the pocket. Cassel has a tendency to take tons of sacks, so playing Pittsburgh is not exactly the medicine he needs.

Jamaal Charles is now Kansas City’s sole offensive threat. The Steelers rank first versus the rush and just shut down Cedric Benson, so don’t expect much from Todd Haley’s new favorite toy.

RECAP: This game has blowout written all over it; in his brief tenure as Steelers head coach, Mike Tomlin has done a great job of rebounding off a loss as a favorite.

I’m slightly concerned about a Backdoor Bandit II backdoor cover, but I could never recommend betting the Chiefs in this contest. As I said, the only way this is close is if the Steelers have a few careless turnovers.

The Psychology. Edge: None.
Coming off a loss, the Steelers should be focused despite having to play the Ravens next week.

The Vegas. Edge: Chiefs.

No one wants to bet on Todd Haley and Matt Cassel?

Percentage of money on Pittsburgh: 94% (168,000 bets)

The Trends. Edge: Steelers.

Winning Coach: Mike Tomlin is 6-3 ATS after losing as a favorite.

Ben Roethlisberger is 66-25 as a starter (51-39 ATS).

Chiefs are 6-2 ATS as a double-digit underdog since 2006.

Chiefs are 5-14 ATS at home since 2007.

Opening Line: Steelers -10.

Opening Total: 38.5.

Weather: Cloudy, 53 degrees. Light wind.

For more trends, check out the Gaming Matchups or the Expanded NFL Analysis.

Week 11 NFL Pick: Steelers 34, Chiefs 10
Steelers -11 (1 Unit) — Incorrect; -$110
Over 40 (0 Units) — Correct; $0
Chiefs 27, Steelers 24

Atlanta Falcons (5-4) at New York Giants (5-4)
Line: Giants by 7. Total: 46.
Walt’s Projected Line (Before Week 10): Giants -6.
Walt’s Projected Line (After Week 10): Giants -9.
Sunday, 1:00 ET

The Game. Edge: Giants.
NFL Injuries: AFC Injuries | NFC Injuries

Anyone who watched the Bears-49ers game Thursday night may have heard the same NFL Network promo being played over and over again. It went something like this:

Narrator: “If you didn’t catch NFL GameDay Hightlights, here’s what you missed…”

A high Michael Irvin slurring words during Peyton Manning highlights: “He plays the quarterback position… like the quarterback position… is supposed… to be played…”

You foolish NFL Network-less people. If only you had that channel and watched NFL GameDay Highlights, you’d know that Peyton Manning plays the quarterback position… like the quarterback position… is supposed… to be played.

I mean, what are you thinking? How do you not pay the extra $5 a month? You probably don’t know that Peyton Manning plays the quarterback position… like the quarterback position… is supposed… to be played. If you want more knowledge like this, you’re going to have to get NFL Network.

ATLANTA OFFENSE: I don’t know why Vegas hasn’t posted a line yet, but I guess they’re being extra cautious with Michael Turner’s injury. Turner is definitely out for at least two weeks, so these oddsmakers are just pissing us off and wasting our time.

The Turner injury isn’t a huge factor as far as I’m concerned. Jason Snelling is a powerful back who is more than capable of shouldering the load. What Snelling lacks in game-breaking speed, he makes up for in the passing game. Unlike Turner, Snelling actually has solid hands.

Snelling’s presence in the backfield will allow Matt Ryan to attack New York’s shoddy secondary. I know Ryan has thrown six picks in his past three games, but he’s gone against some pretty solid defenses in New Orleans (when everyone was healthy), Washington and Carolina (great secondary). The Giants are really hurting at the safety position, so if Ryan was going to rebound, this would be the week.

To prevent Can’t Cover Brown, Aaron Rouse and Michael Johnson from getting torched repeatedly, the Giants will need to place a ton of pressure on Ryan. They haven’t been able to get to the quarterback in recent weeks, and it looks like that trend may continue for another game if Falcons left tackle Sam Baker returns to the lineup. Baker missed the Panthers tilt with an ankle injury. It appears as though he should be fine for this contest.

NEW YORK OFFENSE: During the bye, the Giants scouted themselves and realized that Brandon Jacobs was struggling because they were asking him to take on Derrick Ward’s role.

Tom Coughlin will go back to utilizing Jacobs the same way he did in 2008, which is bad news for a Falcons defense that ranks 19th versus the run. DeAngelo Williams and Jonathan Stewart trampled Atlanta’s front seven, so Jacobs and Ahmad Bradshaw will pick up where the Panthers left off.

With a strong ground attack by his side, Eli Manning should be able to do what he does best – convert third downs. Atlanta’s banged-up secondary won’t be able to handle Steve Smith, Mario Manningham and Hakeem Nicks.

RECAP: I’m assuming this line will come out between -6 and -9. If so, I like the Falcons to cover. Both of these teams have major weaknesses and appear to be evenly matched.

The Psychology. Edge: None.
Both teams need a win here.

The Vegas. Edge: Falcons.

The public believes the Giants will turn it around.

Percentage of money on New York: 78% (142,000 bets)

The Trends. Edge: Falcons.

Road Rules: Mike Smith is 3-0 ATS on the road after a road loss.

Giants are 15-19 ATS as favorites of 6.5 or more the previous 34 instances.

Opening Line: Giants -6.

Opening Total: 46.5.

Weather: Partly cloudy, 55 degrees. Light wind.

For more trends, check out the Gaming Matchups or the Expanded NFL Analysis.

Week 11 NFL Pick: Giants 20, Falcons 17
Falcons +7 (2 Units) — Correct; +$200
Under 46 (0 Units) — Incorrect; $0
Giants 34, Falcons 31

New Orleans Saints (9-0) at Tampa Bay Buccaneers (1-8)
Line: Saints by 11. Total: 51.
Walt’s Projected Line (Before Week 10): Saints -13.5.
Walt’s Projected Line (After Week 10): Saints -13.
Sunday, 1:00 ET

The Game. Edge: Saints.

NFL Injuries: AFC Injuries | NFC Injuries

It’s time for Notes from NFL.com GameCenter – a list of a few stupid comments I read on NFL.com’s new crappy GameCenter and my thoughts on them:

1. “look at scheadual we goin 2 playofs!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!”

look at bad spelling he not goin 2 get a job except mcdonalds!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!

2. “IF YOU GUYS WIN U STILL WONT GOING NOWHERE U CANT COMPEATE WITH THE REST OF THE LEAGUE ESPECIALLY WITH KYLE “THE F A G” ORTON AT QB”

Kyle “The Fag” Orton is such a great nickname. Placing “The Fag” in between anyone’s first and last names is a good time. Not that there’s anything wrong with obnoxious motorcycle riders. (Thanks to forum member ChicagoJay for sending this over.)

3. “Vernon Davis is much like his namesake VD, the disease”

Oh really? Vernon Davis was scoring touchdowns for me in my fantasy league. I didn’t know he was causing itching, discomfort, lesions and painful urination. That bastard. I’m going to cut him now.

NEW ORLEANS OFFENSE: Drew Brees has been a bit shaky lately. In his past four games, he has thrown six touchdowns and seven interceptions. Of course, Brees maintained YPAs of 7.8 or greater in each of those four contests, so it’s not like he has sucked or anything. He’s been just a bit careless with the football.

Fortunately for Brees, he gets a Tampa Bay defense this week that ranks 30th versus the rush and dead last against the pass. He should be able to torch the Buccaneers secondary, while Pierre Thomas and Reggie Bush rip off big gains on the ground. That said, we expected New Orleans’ offense to do this against the Rams, yet they scored only 21 points (seven points came on a kickoff return).

Still, we’re talking about a Buccaneers defense that has given up at least 25 points in each of their past five games. I’ll be surprised if the Saints struggle to move the chains again.

TAMPA BAY OFFENSE: The Saints are simply running out of bodies. Last week, they were missing four starters – Sedrick Ellis, Darren Sharper, Jabari Greer and Kendrick Clancy – and lost a fifth with Tracy Porter spraining his MCL. This is how the Rams were able to out-gain New Orleans by 14 yards.

Meanwhile, the Buccaneers have played very well with Josh Freeman at quarterback. Freeman has some ball security issues, but has otherwise been pretty impressive for a rookie. If Sharper and Greer can’t make it back, Freeman should be able to put together a solid performance, especially with Cadillac Williams trampling a horrible run defense that really misses Ellis clogging the middle of the line of scrimmage.

So, will Sharper and Greer play? Things appear positive for Sharper, while Greer’s status is more unclear. Even if both guys suit up, they may not be 100 percent, so there’s really no way of knowing until the game starts.

RECAP: The Saints have too many injuries that they have to deal with. The Buccaneers have played really well since Freeman took over, and because this is a divisional matchup, I’m really liking all of the points.

That said, if Sharper and Greer are completely healthy, it could be the spark this Saints squad really needs. This is one of the games I’m unsure about this week. Nothing would really surprise me here.

The Psychology. Edge: Buccaneers.

The Buccaneers will bring it against the hated Saints. New Orleans, meanwhile, could be caught looking ahead to its Monday night battle against the Patriots. It’s worth noting though that Sean Payton is 2-0 ATS in projected Look-Ahead Alerts this year.

The Vegas. Edge: Buccaneers.

A large sum of money just landed on the Bucs, dragging this percentage down to two-thirds.

Percentage of money on New Orleans: 71% (140,000 bets)

The Trends. Edge: Saints.

History: Buccaneers have won 3 of the last 4 meetings.

Road Rules: Sean Payton is 6-2 ATS on the road after a road game.

Saints are 46-30 ATS on the road since 2000.

Drew Brees is 13-6 ATS as a road favorite.

Drew Brees is 20-11 ATS off back-to-back wins.

Buccaneers are 14-7 ATS as a home underdog since 1996 (1-3 in 2009).

Opening Line: Saints -11.5.

Opening Total: 51.5.

Weather: Possible thunderstorms, 78 degrees. Light wind.

For more trends, check out the Gaming Matchups or the Expanded NFL Analysis.

Week 11 NFL Pick: Saints 31, Buccaneers 23
Buccaneers +11.5 (.5 Units) — Incorrect; -$55
Over 51 (0 Units) — Incorrect; $0
Saints 38, Buccaneers 7

Buffalo Bills (3-6) at Jacksonville Jaguars (5-4)
Line: Jaguars by 8.5. Total: 42.5.
Walt’s Projected Line (Before Week 10): Jaguars -6.5.
Walt’s Projected Line (After Week 10): Jaguars -7.5.
Sunday, 1:00 ET

The Game. Edge: Jaguars.

NFL Injuries: AFC Injuries | NFC Injuries

More Notes from NFL.com GameCenter (JaMarcus Russell Edition):

1. “the problem with russell is that nobody in the huddle can understand his ebonics play calling”

Perhaps one day the Raiders will be able to overcome this difficult language barrier and become a winning team again.

2. “I don’t think its [JaMarcus Russell’s] ebonics or the fact he can’t read a playbook. I mean he knows the menu at kfc very well. He knows it like the back of his hand. The raiders need to give him what he wants and thats some cornel sanders kentucky fried chicken!”

I can see it now. Instead of signaling stuff like “Omaha Omaha!” at the line of scrimmage, Russell can yell, “10-piece Original Recipe! Home Biscuits! Home Biscuits! Mac and Cheese! Hike!” I really think this could work.

3. “Playing Russel at quarteback is like sticking bubble gum into the cracks of a failing dam…you know it wont work, but it is all you have”

Or you could just stick Russell into the crack of the dam. He’s fat enough to clog the whole thing.

BUFFALO OFFENSE: The JaMarcus Russell edition of the GameCenter comments is very apt for this game. If you haven’t heard, the Bills fired Dick Jauron hours after Jauron announced another quarterback change.

“You think Fitzpatrick will start over Edwards? We’ll see about that!” Ralph Wilson incoherently yelled to himself.

Edwards apparently is still the starter, so expect a ton of Brady Quinn-esque throws – lots of short junk and the occasional downfield heave that sails out of bounds.

The Bills will obviously look to establish the run. That may seem like a lucrative move because Jacksonville ranks 22nd against the rush, but that stat is out of whack because of what Chris Johnson did a few weeks ago. The Jaguars recently limited Thomas Jones to just 77 yards on 21 carries, which is a great effort based on how well Jones has played this year.

If Jacksonville can shut down the rush again, the Bills won’t have any luck moving the chains. Left tackle Demetrius Bell is out 2-3 weeks, so Edwards won’t have any sort of protection on third-and-long situations.

JACKSONVILLE OFFENSE: In my Weekly Fantasy Football Rankings last week, I wrote of Chris Johnson, “The league’s top rusher versus the league’s worst run defense. What could happen?” Sure enough, Johnson ripped through Buffalo’s defense for 232 total yards (132 rushing; 100 receiving).

Now the poor Bills have the unenviable task of stopping Maurice Jones-Drew. That’s not going to happen.

With Jones-Drew running well, David Garrard should be able to convert third-and-short situations. The Bills have a very opportunistic secondary, so Garrard needs to refrain from forcing anything when he’s in an obvious passing down.

RECAP: Forum member Wraith essentially broke this story on Tuesday morning. This is my November NFL Pick of the Month.

You don’t fire your coach during the season on a non-bye week. It leads to disaster. Though we can really go back and find tons of examples, let’s look at the last two times there has been a coaching change in the NFL during a standard week:

Oct. 26, 2008: Mike Nolan was axed a week prior to San Francisco’s bye. The 49ers hosted a Seneca Wallace-led Seahawks squad that had only one win, so they were favored by 5.5.

San Francisco lost, 34-13. The team committed three turnovers and surrendered five sacks. The Niners also had many more penalties than the Seahawks.

Dec. 16, 2007: Slimeball Bobby Petrino walked out on the Falcons in the middle of the night. Atlanta visited Tampa Bay the following Sunday as 13-point underdogs. The Buccaneers slaughtered the Falcons, 37-3. They even scored on their first kickoff return in franchise history.

Atlanta had five turnovers, including a pick-six. They achieved only five first downs the entire afternoon.

Nov. 22, 2009: Will the Bills suffer the same fate as the 49ers and Falcons, who lost by a combined score of 71-16? I definitely think so.

Football is really different than all of the other sports. Coaching and game-planning is really paramount, which would explain why San Francisco and Atlanta were so discombobulated in those games.

The Bills will be unprepared. They won’t have a thorough game plan. The coaches will be learning all of their new responsibilities. The players will be confused. It’ll be complete mayhem.

At least my eight units hope so.

SURVIVOR PICK: The Vikings and Patriots would be my top survivor choices if I hadn’t used them already. My third option was the Cowboys over the Redskins before I learned of the Jauron firing.

Dallas over Washington ended my survivor run last year, so I’m thankful that Ralph Wilson axed his head coach a few weeks too late. Some people will use the Steelers or Bengals, but I refuse to take road teams in survivor pools.

The Psychology. Edge: Jaguars.

The Bills just fired Dick Jauron.

The Vegas. Edge: Bills.
The public loved the Jaguars early. It’s evened out since.

Percentage of money on Jacksonville: 61% (131,000 bets)

The Trends. Edge: Bills.

Statfox Trend: Favorites coming off 1-3 point road wins are 19-43 ATS since 2000 (Jack Del Rio 0-2).

Bills were 20-14 ATS as a dog under Dick Jauron.

Bills are 15-8 ATS against losing teams since 2006.

Jaguars are 11-8 ATS in November home games since 2000.

Jaguars are 6-12 ATS as favorites of 6.5 or more since 2003.

Opening Line: Jaguars -9.

Opening Total: 42.

Weather: Possible thunderstorms, 74 degrees. Light wind.

For more trends, check out the Gaming Matchups or the Expanded NFL Analysis.

Week 11 NFL Pick: Jaguars 30, Bills 3
Jaguars -8.5 (8 Units – November NFL Pick of the Month) — Incorrect; -$880
Under 42.5 (0 Units) — Correct; $0
Survivor Pick (10-0)
Jaguars 18, Bills 15

Indianapolis Colts (9-0) at Baltimore Ravens (5-4)
Line: Colts by 1.5. Total: 44.
Walt’s Projected Line (Before Week 10): Colts -3.
Walt’s Projected Line (After Week 10): Colts -4.
Sunday, 1:00 ET

The Game. Edge: Colts.

NFL Injuries: AFC Injuries | NFC Injuries

Some weird things were said by NFL players and TV analysts recently. I don’t make fun of these people enough, I know. Here are some of them and my thoughts on each:

1. ESPN2’s Jay Crawford (thanks to Max V.): “Earlier this year Andre Johnson had a one hand job.”

Very nice, sexy time.

2. Brian Billick during the Eagles-Chargers game: “The Eagles have a lot of penalties today. This is not characteristic of an Andy Reid-coached team.”

Billick and Reid are real-life BFFS (seriously), so maybe Reid simply told Billick that his team doesn’t commit many penalties when they were out drinking one night. If Billick had actually watched any Eagles games this year, he would have seen how discombobulated the team is every Sunday. No one wastes timeouts and kicks meaningless field goals like Big Red. No one.

3. JaMarcus Russell on getting benched: “I really can’t explain it. I really don’t know what to say about it, but that was his decision, and just move on.”

If Russell knew how to use a computer, he could look up his stats and see that he was 9-of-24 for 67 yards. I wonder if Russell even has a computer. “Do you tink so?”

INDIANAPOLIS OFFENSE: Peyton Manning really wasn’t sharp for the first three quarters of the Patriots game. He threw so many inaccurate passes that Cris Collinsworth nearly had a seizure. It was really strange to watch; it’s not like Manning has never seen Bill Belichick’s defense before, so I don’t know what the deal was.

However, Manning became Manning again with a pair of 2-minute, 80-yard drives and a final 28-yard game-winning sequence in the fourth quarter. It’s like he finally understood what was going on.

Getting Baltimore’s defense will be welcome relief for Manning. Even when the Ravens had a dominant stop unit, Manning had always been successful against them. Dating back to 2002, Manning is 118-of-184 (64.1%) for 1,477 yards (8.0 YPA), 11 touchdowns and three interceptions against the Ravens in six games. More importantly, the Colts are 6-0 in those matchups.

And that’s when Baltimore’s defense was good. Now, the secondary stinks and two players will be out. Terrell Suggs (knee) and Tavares Gooden (concussion) look like they both could be done for the season.

Manning should have a pretty easy time torching Baltimore’s beleaguered secondary.

BALTIMORE OFFENSE: Cleveland’s defensive line gave the Ravens all they could handle on Monday night. However, I don’t think this necessarily means that the Colts will be able to get pressure on Joe Flacco; the Browns dominated the interior with Shaun Rogers. Indianapolis, meanwhile, brings the heat outside with Dwight Freeney and Robert Mathis. Fortunately for Flacco, he has two very good tackles protecting him.

With that in mind, I don’t think Flacco will have a ton of success shredding Indianapolis’ secondary like Tom Brady did. Brady is one of the best quarterbacks in NFL history. Flacco, meanwhile, is a good player, but he doesn’t exactly have a Randy Moss-type talent to work with. Rookie corner Jerraud Powers, who is emerging as a top defensive back, will be able to limit Derrick Mason.

The Ravens should be able to score some points by utilizing Ray Rice both on the ground and through the air. However, I’m not confident that they can keep up with the Colts on the scoreboard.

RECAP: This is one of the worst spreads Vegas has ever made. They obviously want action on the Colts, but they could have gotten the same amount of cash flow if they had made the line Indianapolis -2 or -3.

This looks like a trap game, but as I said earlier, I have a “hunch” that the public will win some money this week.

With that in mind, I think Manning continues his dominance over the Ravens.

The Psychology. Edge: Ravens.

The only time Peyton Manning ever beat Tom Brady in the regular season, he came back and escaped with a 1-point victory over the Bills as a 12-point favorite. This is a Letdown Alert for the Colts who are playing a Ravens team that needs a win to keep up in the playoff race.

The Vegas. Edge: Ravens.

Why in the world are the Ravens favored? Vegas could get tons of action on their side if the line were Colts -3. Dumbest spread ever.

Percentage of money on Indianapolis: 94% (164,000 bets)

The Trends. Edge: Ravens.

Big Al Trend I: Since 1980, unrested home dogs are 114-69 ATS off a straight-up road win vs. team coming off home win. ???

Colts are 36-23 ATS on the road since 2002.

Peyton Manning is 26-18 ATS as a road favorite since 2001.

Ravens are 25-14 ATS in November since 2000.

Ravens are 14-4 ATS in November home games since 2000.

Ravens are 9-5 ATS as an underdog under John Harbaugh.

Opening Line: Ravens -1.

Opening Total: 44.5.

Weather: Cloudy, 53 degrees. Light wind.

For more trends, check out the Gaming Matchups or the Expanded NFL Analysis.

Week 11 NFL Pick: Colts 27, Ravens 21
Colts +1.5 (1 Unit) — Correct; +$100
Over 44 (.5 Units) — Incorrect; -$55
Colts 17, Ravens 15

Seattle Seahawks (3-6) at Minnesota Vikings (8-1)
Line: Vikings by 10.5. Total: 47.
Walt’s Projected Line (Before Week 10): Vikings -11.
Walt’s Projected Line (After Week 10): Vikings -13.
Sunday, 1:00 ET

The Game. Edge: Vikings.

NFL Injuries: AFC Injuries | NFC Injuries

Emmitt on the Brink is back! Season 2, Week 10 will be posted Friday. Last year, Bill Belichick was caught cheating again, and Roger Goodell made Emmitt take over as the Patriots coach as punishment. Now, Emmitt is back as the official head coach. This week, the 8-0 Patriots get into trouble with the NFL and a private organization. Later, Anthony Morelli battles Jay Cutler to see who can throw the most interceptions.

SEATTLE OFFENSE: Left tackle Sean Locklear finally made his triumphant return to the lineup, but it was the same old story for the Seahawks. Matt Hasselbeck was sacked four times in a 31-20 loss at Arizona last week.

Minnesota’s defensive line has a major advantage in this game. I just don’t see how the Seahawks will be able to keep Jared Allen, Ray Edwards and the Williams Wall out of the backfield. The Vikings’ seventh-ranked rush defense will shut down Justin Forsett, forcing Matt Hasselbeck to move the chains on his own.

As if the poor pass protection wasn’t enough for Hasselbeck, it looks as though shutdown corner Antoine Winfield will play for the Vikings. Winfield has missed the past three games with a foot injury, but he said Tuesday that there’s an “85-percent chance” that he’ll play.

MINNESOTA OFFENSE: The Seahawks have given up at least 113 rushing yards in three straight games to a hobbled Marion Barber, Kevin Smith and Chris Wells. Now, they have to find some way to contain Adrian Peterson. Ruh-roh.

With Peterson a lock to exceed 150 yards in this contest, Brett Favre will have easy opportunities to torch a Seattle secondary that has allowed 249 passing yards in three of its previous four contests.

Simply put, I just don’t see how the Seahawks will be able to contain the Vikings.

RECAP: Remember that Titans-Patriots game that ended 59-0? Clearly New England isn’t 59 points better than Tennessee, so what happened?

Well, the Titans put tons of stock into the previous game when they battled the hated Colts. It was a close contest until they committed several dumb penalties at the end of the first half, allowing Peyton Manning to score a touchdown. The Titans came up short, and at 0-5, they knew their season was over. They consequently mailed in that game at New England.

I think this is the same exact situation. The Seahawks needed to beat the Cardinals to stay alive. They held a 17-7 lead, but gave it up and lost by 11. With a 3-6 record and two losses to Arizona, they have no shot at making the playoffs.

This game could get ugly because the Seahawks have nothing to play for. I really can’t see them bringing any sort of intensity here.

The Psychology. Edge: Vikings.

The Seahawks put everything into the Cardinals game with their season on the line. They lost, which has to be a huge blow to them.

The Vegas. Edge: Seahawks.

It’s shocking that the public loves the Vikings.

Percentage of money on Minnesota: 85% (160,000 bets)

The Trends. Edge: Vikings.

Seahawks are 10-20 ATS on the road since 2006.

Opening Line: Vikings -11.

Opening Total: 46.5.

Weather: Dome.

For more trends, check out the Gaming Matchups or the Expanded NFL Analysis.

Week 11 NFL Pick: Vikings 35, Seahawks 3
Vikings -10.5 (4 Units) — Correct; +$400
Under 47 (0 Units) — Correct; $0
Vikings 35, Seahawks 9

Week 11 NFL Picks – Late Games
Cardinals at Rams, Jets at Patriots, Bengals at Raiders, Chargers at Broncos, Eagles at Bears, Titans at Texans

Prop/Teaser/Parlay Picks
A list of some of my favorite team/player prop picks this week
(Offense & defensive ROY picks to be counted whenver winners are announced.) Picks carried over on a week-to-week basis will be in black.

Prop/teaser/parlay picks posted in Week 11 NFL Picks – Late Games

NFL Picks - Nov. 15

2025 NFL Mock Draft - Nov. 13

NFL Power Rankings - Nov. 12

Fantasy Football Rankings - Sept. 4

SUB MENU

Note: For legality purposes, this Web site does not promote or advocate gambling. This is solely for entertainment purposes only.

Last Week's NFL Picks Against The Spread (Week 11, 2024): 6-7 (-$1,275)
Last Week's 2-3 Unit NFL Picks (Week 11, 2024): 2-2 (+$65)
Last Week's 4-5 Unit NFL Picks (Week 11, 2024): 1-3 (-$905)
Last Week Over-Under (Week 11, 2024): 6-7-1 ($0)
Last Week's Prop/ML/Teaser/Parlay Picks (Week 11, 2024): -$435

2024 NFL Picks of the Month: 1-2, 50.0% (-$500)

2024 Season NFL Picks Against The Spread: 78-79-6, 49.7% (-$4,565)
2024 Season 2-3 Unit NFL Picks: 19-25-1, 43.2% (-$1,180)
2024 Season 4-5 Unit NFL Picks: 15-17, 46.9% (-$1,555)
2024 Season Over-Under: 76-74-2, 50.7% (+$95)
2024 Season Prop/ML/Teaser/Parlay Picks: -$165

1999 Season NFL Picks Against The Spread: 27-41-3 (39.7%)
2000 Season NFL Picks Against The Spread: 128-123-8 (51.0%)
2001 Season NFL Picks Against The Spread: 127-122-7 (51.0%)
2002 Season NFL Picks Against The Spread: 123-136-7 (47.5%)
2003 Season NFL Picks Against The Spread: 146-126-8 (53.7%)
2004 Season NFL Picks Against The Spread: 157-123-8 (56.1%)
2005 Season NFL Picks Against The Spread: 156-126-11 (55.3%)
2006 Season NFL Picks Against The Spread: 151-135-9 (52.8%)
2007 Season NFL Picks Against The Spread: 162-135-10, 54.5% (+$3,585)
2008 Season NFL Picks Against The Spread: 148-140-7, 51.4% (+$6,105)
2009 Season NFL Picks Against The Spread: 151-124-9, 54.9% (+$4,235)
2010 Season NFL Picks Against The Spread: 144-131-8, 52.4% (+$5,880)
2011 Season NFL Picks Against The Spread: 137-133-12, 50.7% (-$1,335)
2012 Season NFL Picks Against The Spread: 130-145-8, 47.3% (-$7,445)
2013 Season NFL Picks Against The Spread: 144-131-8, 52.4% (+$7,825)
2014 Season NFL Picks Against The Spread: 143-133-7, 51.8% (-$1,885)
2015 Season NFL Picks Against The Spread: 134-138-12, 49.3% (-$3,215)
2016 Season NFL Picks Against The Spread: 148-127-10, 53.8% (+$780)
2017 Season NFL Picks Against The Spread: 137-140-8, 49.5% (-$4,300)
2018 Season NFL Picks Against The Spread: 140-134-14, 51.3% (+$845)
2019 Season NFL Picks Against The Spread: 149-128-9, 53.6% (+$1,200)
2020 Season NFL Picks Against The Spread: 138-124-7, 52.7% (+$9,350)
2021 Season NFL Picks Against The Spread: 153-141-2, 51.9% (+$210)
2022 Season NFL Picks Against The Spread: 154-134-8, 53.5% (+$9,860)
2023 Season NFL Picks Against The Spread: 144-141-7, 50.5% (-$7,285)

2002 Season 2-3 Unit NFL Picks: 41-49-2 (45.6%)
2003 Season 2-3 Unit NFL Picks: 52-51-2 (50.5%)
2004 Season 2-3 Unit NFL Picks: 65-44-3 (59.6%)
2005 Season 2-3 Unit NFL Picks: 77-61-1 (55.8%)
2006 Season 2-3 Unit NFL Picks: 65-61-4 (51.6%)
2007 Season 2-3 Unit NFL Picks: 83-59-5, 58.5% (+$4,110)
2008 Season 2-3 Unit NFL Picks: 44-57-3, 43.6% (-$3,510)
2009 Season 2-3 Unit NFL Picks: 49-35-3, 58.3% (+$2,260)
2010 Season 2-3 Unit NFL Picks: 51-38-4, 57.3% (+$3,180)
2011 Season 2-3 Unit NFL Picks: 44-51-3, 46.3% (-$2,715)
2012 Season 2-3 Unit NFL Picks: 45-50-2, 47.4% (-$2,130)
2013 Season 2-3 Unit NFL Picks: 38-42, 47.5% (-$2,890)
2015 Season 2-3 Unit NFL Picks: 47-44-1, 51.6% (-$820)
2016 Season 2-3 Unit NFL Picks: 42-35-3, 54.5% (+$475)
2017 Season 2-3 Unit NFL Picks: 32-40-3, 43.8% (-$2,395)
2018 Season 2-3 Unit NFL Picks: 52-41-2, 55.9% (+$2,670)
2019 Season 2-3 Unit NFL Picks: 44-36-2, 55.0% (+$655)
2020 Season 2-3 Unit NFL Picks: 47-43-3, 52.2% (-$1,965)
2021 Season 2-3 Unit NFL Picks: 50-50, 50.0% (-$1,570)
2022 Season 2-3 Unit NFL Picks: 56-44-2, 56.0% (+$1,860)
2023 Season 2-3 Unit NFL Picks: 44-40-3, 52.4% (+$285)

2002 Season 4-5 Unit NFL Picks: 11-12 (47.8%)
2003 Season 4-5 Unit NFL Picks: 16-13-1 (55.2%)
2004 Season 4-5 Unit NFL Picks: 18-11 (62.1%)
2005 Season 4-5 Unit NFL Picks: 25-22-1 (53.2%)
2006 Season 4-5 Unit NFL Picks: 21-29-1 (42.0%)
2007 Season 4-5 Unit NFL Picks: 35-30-2, 53.8% (+$420)
2008 Season 4-5 Unit NFL Picks: 39-26-2, 60.0% (+$4,055)
2009 Season 4-5 Unit NFL Picks: 29-26, 52.7% (+$330)
2010 Season 4-5 Unit NFL Picks: 32-22, 59.3% (+$4,790)
2011 Season 4-5 Unit NFL Picks: 14-14, 50.0% (-$1,260)
2012 Season 4-5 Unit NFL Picks: 14-21, 40.0% (-$3,650)
2013 Season 4-5 Unit NFL Picks: 17-9-3, 65.4% (+$2,970)
2015 Season 4-5 Unit NFL Picks: 17-16-2, 51.5% (-$1,120)
2016 Season 4-5 Unit NFL Picks: 21-22-5, 48.8% (-$1,465)
2017 Season 4-5 Unit NFL Picks: 20-22-1, 47.6% (-$1,595)
2018 Season 4-5 Unit NFL Picks: 27-32-1, 45.8% (-$4,735)
2019 Season 4-5 Unit NFL Picks: 37-27-2, 57.8% (+$2,185)
2020 Season 4-5 Unit NFL Picks: 37-22-1, 62.7% (+$5,515)
2021 Season 4-5 Unit NFL Picks: 32-32-1, 50.0% (-$725)
2022 Season 4-5 Unit NFL Picks: 41-30-1, 57.8% (+$3,725)
2023 Season 4-5 Unit NFL Picks: 32-27-1, 54.2% (-$1,310)

2001 Season Over-Under: 3-2 (60.0%)
2002 Season Over-Under: 121-91-3 (57.1%)
2003 Season Over-Under: 126-132-2 (48.8%)
2004 Season Over-Under: 139-124-4 (52.9%)
2005 Season Over-Under: 117-145-4 (44.7%)
2006 Season Over-Under: 129-132-5 (49.4%)
2007 Season Over-Under: 136-145-3, 48.4% (-$1,900)
2008 Season Over-Under: 137-125-6, 52.3% (+$860)
2009 Season Over-Under: 128-135-4, 48.7% (-$3,195)
2010 Season Over-Under: 128-135-5, 48.7% (-$5)
2011 Season Over-Under: 131-131-5, 50.0% (+$135)
2012 Season Over-Under: 125-121-5, 50.8% (+$30)
2013 Season Over-Under: 132-130-5, 50.4% (-$340)
2015 Season Over-Under: 143-119-5, 54.6% ($0)
2016 Season Over-Under: 123-141-1, 46.6% (+$95)
2017 Season Over-Under: 136-139-2, 49.5% (+$640)
2018 Season Over-Under: 118-128-3, 48.0% (-$225)
2019 Season Over-Under: 126-133-4, 48.6% (-$50)
2020 Season Over-Under: 141-122-6, 53.6% ($0)
2021 Season Over-Under: 132-151-3, 46.6% ($0)
2022 Season Over-Under: 133-149-2, 47.2% (-$225)
2023 Season Over-Under: 145-135-3, 51.8% (+$200)

2007 Season Prop/ML/Teaser/Parlay Picks: +$1,035
2008 Season Prop/ML/Teaser/Parlay Picks: +$1,775
2009 Season Prop/ML/Teaser/Parlay Picks: +$865
2010 Season Prop/ML/Teaser/Parlay Picks: -$200
2011 Season Prop/ML/Teaser/Parlay Picks: +$590
2012 Season Prop/ML/Teaser/Parlay Picks: -$1,685
2013 Season Prop/ML/Teaser/Parlay Picks: +$2,245
2015 Season Prop/ML/Teaser/Parlay Picks: -$855
2016 Season Prop/ML/Teaser/Parlay Picks: -$275
2017 Season Prop/ML/Teaser/Parlay Picks: -$510
2018 Season Prop/ML/Teaser/Parlay Picks: +$1,495
2019 Season Prop/ML/Teaser/Parlay Picks: -$1,715
2020 Season Prop/ML/Teaser/Parlay Picks: +$4,975
2021 Season Prop/ML/Teaser/Parlay Picks: +$3,455
2022 Season Prop/ML/Teaser/Parlay Picks: +$5,720
2023 Season Prop/ML/Teaser/Parlay Picks: -$2,565

2006 NFL Picks of the Month: 3-3 (50%)
2007 NFL Picks of the Month: 3-3, 50.0% (-$400)
2008 NFL Picks of the Month: 6-1, 85.7% (+$3,720)
2009 NFL Picks of the Month: 3-2, 60.0% (+$640)
2010 NFL Picks of the Month: 2-4, 33.3% (-$1,810)
2011 NFL Picks of the Month: 5-2, 71.4% (+$1,870)
2012 NFL Picks of the Month: 3-2, 60.0% (+$560)
2013 NFL Picks of the Month: 6-0, 100% (+$3,900)
2014 NFL Picks of the Month: 2-4, 33.3% (-$1,350)
2015 NFL Picks of the Month: 3-3, 50.0% (-$100)
2016 NFL Picks of the Month: 5-1, 83.3% (+$2,780)
2017 NFL Picks of the Month: 4-2, 66.7% (+$1,040)
2018 NFL Picks of the Month: 4-3, 57.1% (-$640)
2019 NFL Picks of the Month: 3-3-1, 50.0% (-$625)
2020 NFL Picks of the Month: 3-2, 60.0% (+$665)
2021 NFL Picks of the Month: 2-3, 40.0% (-$920)
2022 NFL Picks of the Month: 3-4, 42.9% (-$1,615)
2023 NFL Picks of the Month: 2-5, 28.6% (-$2,550)

Career NFL Picks Against The Spread: 3,499-3,231-202, 52.0% (+$17,105)
Career 2-3 Unit NFL Picks: 1,126-1,010-57 (52.7%)
Career 4-5 Unit NFL Picks: 568-502-25 (53.1%)
Career Over-Under: 2,935-2,908-76 (50.2%)
Career Second-Half NFL Picks: 23-16-1 (59.0%)
Career NFL Picks of the Month: 47-36-1 (56.6%)

My Team-by-Team ATS Record
This section shows how well I do when picking each team this year. The purpose is to see how well I read each team. Pushes are not displayed. Winning/losing streak in parentheses.

Cowboys: 5-3	Bears: 4-5	Bucs: 6-4	49ers: 6-3
Eagles: 4-5	Lions: 8-1	Falcons: 5-5	Cardinals: 8-2
Giants: 3-6	Packers: 5-3	Panthers: 4-6	Rams: 4-5
Redskins: 4-5	Vikings: 3-6	Saints: 5-5	Seahawks: 6-2

Bills: 3-7	Bengals: 2-8	Colts: 5-5	Broncos: 6-4
Dolphins: 3-6	Browns: 3-6	Jaguars: 2-7	Chargers: 5-3
Jets: 5-5	Ravens: 4-5	Texans: 4-6	Chiefs: 3-5
Patriots: 5-3	Steelers: 3-6	Titans: 5-3	Raiders: 4-5

Divisional: 18-22 (2011-23: 608-561)	2x Game Edge: 14-13 (2011-23: 401-387)	2x Motivation Edge: 30-24 (2011-23: 510-441)	2x Spread Edge: 18-27 (2011-23: 239-211)
2x Vegas Edge: 30-41 (2011-23: 448-446)	2x Trend Edge: 12-7 (2011-23: 321-293)	Double Edge: 11-16 (2011-23: 207-185)	Triple Edge: 4-7 (2011-23: 33-37)