NFL Picks Against the Spread: Week 5, 2009

NFL Picks (Preseason 2009): 8-7-2 (+$130)
NFL Picks (Week 1, 2009): 9-7 (+$285)
NFL Picks (Week 2, 2009): 10-6 (+$1,860)
NFL Picks (Week 3, 2009): 13-3 (+$2,095)
NFL Picks (Week 4, 2009): 10-4 (+$2,040)

NFL Picks (2009): 50-27-2 (+$6,410)
NFL Picks (2008): 136-125-6 (+$4,330)
If you don’t quite understand the line, total or anything else, go to my Sports Betting FAQ.

Vegas betting action updated Oct. 12, 4:30 p.m. ET.

Go to Week 5 NFL Picks – Early Games

Atlanta Falcons (2-1) at San Francisco 49ers (3-1)
Line: 49ers by 2.5. Total: 40.5.
Walt’s Projected Line (Before Week 4): 49ers -1.5.
Walt’s Projected Line (After Week 4): 49ers -2.5.
Sunday, 4:05 ET

The Game. Edge: 49ers.
NFL Injuries: AFC Injuries | NFC Injuries

Last year, I kept you up to date with Bo-Bo’s Fantasy Team (click the link for details). This year, I’m doing the same.

Bo-Bo lost 75-50, but the bigger story is how he suffered defeat. Just check out his lineup:

QB: Joe Flacco (good)
RB1: Michael Turner (bye)
RB2: Frank Gore (out)
WR1: Terrell Owens (meh)
WR2: Miles Austin (LOL)
WR3: Laurent Robinson (on IR)
TE: Chris Cooley (good)
K: David Akers (bye)
DEF: Vikings Defense (good)

Out of the nine players Bo-Bo started, four didn’t even play. Flacco and the Vikings saved him from scoring in single digits. Now at 1-3, Bo-Bo looks like he’s in mid-season form.

SAN FRANCISCO OFFENSE: By now, we all know what the 49ers are going to do on offense. They’re going to run the ball as much as possible and ask Shaun Hill to convert third downs. Thus far, the plan has been very effective.

That strategy will continue to work this Sunday, as the Falcons are miserable versus the rush (26th), giving up five yards per carry. Glen Coffee, who is expected to start for Frank Gore again, will rip right through an Atlanta front seven missing rookie defensive tackle Peria Jerry. This will allow Hill to attack Atlanta’s defense with play-action fakes.

ATLANTA OFFENSE: Like the 49ers, Atlanta has built its offense around the running game. However, Michael Turner hasn’t exactly thrived this year, as he’s gained just 3.5 yards per carry.

Turner’s struggles will continue Sunday. The 49ers coincidentally allow just 3.5 yards per carry, and two weeks ago, they even made Adrian Peterson look human.

San Francisco isn’t as strong in the secondary, so the team can be beaten there. That’s good news for the Falcons because Matt Ryan is one of the better quarterbacks in the NFL. Ryan is completing around 66 percent of his passes with a 7.1 YPA and a 5-to-1 touchdown-to-interception ratio. He’s also been sacked only twice. The 49ers will have their hands full with him.

RECAP: This is a classic case of overrated versus underrated.

Teams with a good offense and a poor defense are overrated. The public loves betting on them because people naturally love points. The oddsmakers can bump up the spreads 2-3 points with these squads.

Teams with an efficient offense and great defense are underrated. The public typically shrugs these squads off. Think about it – would your rather bet on Matt Ryan or Shaun Hill? We often get great value with these underrated teams.

The Falcons are overrated and the 49ers are underrated. Thus, we’re not getting true value with the line here. Because this is a cross-country game for Atlanta, this spread should be -3.5 or -4. Laying just 2.5 points is a bargain.

The Psychology. Edge: None.
This is a big game for both teams. It means more to the Falcons, but the 49ers can make a statement with a win.

The Vegas. Edge: None.
Equal action surprises me.

Percentage of money on San Francisco: 59% (171,000 bets)

The Trends. Edge: Falcons.

Mike Smith is 2-0 ATS on the West Coast.

Opening Line: 49ers -2.5.

Opening Total: 42.5.

Weather: Partly cloudy, 71 degrees. Light wind.

For more trends, check out the Gaming Matchups or the Expanded NFL Analysis.

Week 5 NFL Pick: 49ers 26, Falcons 20
49ers -2.5 (1 Unit) — Incorrect; -$110
Over 40.5 (.5 Units) — Correct; +$50
Falcons 45, 49ers 10

Jacksonville Jaguars (2-2) at Seattle Seahawks (1-3)
Line: Seahawks by 1.5. Total: 44.
Walt’s Projected Line (Before Week 4): Seahawks -7 (Hasselbeck) or Seahawks -3 (Wallace).
Walt’s Projected Line (After Week 4): Seahawks -3 (Hasselbeck) or Jaguars -1 (Wallace).
Sunday, 4:15 ET

The Game. Edge: TBA.
NFL Injuries: AFC Injuries | NFC Injuries

With the 2009 NFL Season underway, I’ll be posting my Jerks of the Week on Wednesdays because I’ll be tied up on Sundays. Jerks of the Week for Oct. 5, 2009 are up, so just click the link. This week’s jerks are: 1) Plagiarizers. 2) ESPN, NBC and Google. 3) Philadelphia Cat Torturers.

SEATTLE OFFENSE: I have a feeling there won’t be a line posted on this game for a while. Matt Hasselbeck hasn’t practiced yet, but his brother Tim said that he would be surprised if Matt sat out.

Whether Hasselbeck plays or not, the Seahawks will focus on running the ball with Julius Jones. Jones stinks, and a hobbled offensive line isn’t doing him any favors, but the Jaguars are pretty ineffective at stopping the run, giving up 4.2 yards per carry.

Where the Jaguars are particularly weak is in the secondary. This weakness wasn’t exposed last week because Kerry Collins is a pretty pedestrian quarterback when he’s asked to win games on his own, but Jacksonville previously allowed Peyton Manning, Matt Schaub and a hobbled Kurt Warner to torch them. Warner even set a record. The one silver lining for the Jaguars is that Gerald Alexander, who played in place of the horrific Sean Considine last week, was outstanding. Jacksonville really needs someone to step up in the secondary, and Alexander could be the guy.

If Hasselbeck starts, he should be able to beat the Jaguars’ secondary. Seneca “The Backdoor Bandit” Wallace will be efficient in throwing his short junk, but he doesn’t have the arm strength to make the Seahawks an explosive offense.

JACKSONVILLE OFFENSE: Thanks in part to Mike Sims-Walker, David Garrard is really coming around after a slow start. In his last two games, Garrard has thrown for 537 yards, three touchdowns and no picks on a YPA around 8.0 and a completion percentage of 67. Peyton Manning shredded Seattle’s beleaguered secondary last week, and Garrard should be able to pick up where his AFC South rival left off.

Of course, the offense runs through Maurice Jones-Drew, who should be well rested after sitting out most of the second half against the Titans. The Seahawks are 30th versus the rush and haven’t really stopped any running back this year. Like Garrard and Walker-Sims, Drew-Jones will have a monstrous performance.

RECAP: We have no idea if Hasselbeck is going to play, so I don’t know what this line is going to be. Let’s go over both scenarios:

If Hasselbeck starts, the Seahawks might be a short favorite. If so, I like the Jaguars, who typically play well in an underdog role. With Hasselbeck under center, Jacksonville will be focused because the team will know that it’ll have to play hard to overcome the Seahawks on the road.

If Hasselbeck sits, the Jaguars will be a favorite of about three points. If so, I like the Seahawks. Jacksonville seldom meets expectations, and if the Backdoor Bandit is playing, they’ll take Seattle lightly. The Seahawks, meanwhile, will be more focused, knowing that it’ll take 110 percent with their starting quarterback out again.

For now, I’m going to assume that Tim Hasselbeck is correct with his inside info. I’ll take the Jaguars. However, if it’s announced that Wallace will start, I’ll change my pick to Seattle.

The Psychology. Edge: Jaguars.

With Matt Hasselbeck in the lineup, the Jaguars know they’ll have to bring it to beat the Seahawks.

The Vegas. Edge: None.
Equal action.

Percentage of money on Seattle: 57% (67,000 bets)

The Trends. Edge: Jaguars.

Jaguars are 14-8 ATS as an underdog since 2006.

Opening Line: Seahawks -1.

Opening Total: 44.

Weather: Sunny, 54 degrees. Light wind.

For more trends, check out the Gaming Matchups or the Expanded NFL Analysis.

Week 5 NFL Pick: Jaguars 27, Seahawks 20
Jaguars +1.5 (1 Unit) — Incorrect; -$110
Over 44 (.5 Units) — Incorrect; -$55
Seahawks 41, Jaguars 0

Houston Texans (2-2) at Arizona Cardinals (1-2)
Line: Cardinals by 5.5. Total: 50.
Walt’s Projected Line (Before Week 4): Cardinals -4.5.
Walt’s Projected Line (After Week 4): Cardinals -4.
Sunday, 4:15 ET

The Game. Edge: Texans.

NFL Injuries: AFC Injuries | NFC Injuries

My E-mail of the Week will be back next week, but I’m still going to post a Video of the Week. Belenos linked to this on the forum. It’s one of the worst/funniest plays in football history. Just watch the game unfold, and you’ll see the play around the 1:30 mark.

By the way, I just noticed that the announcer says, “The kick is a good one, but it’s well short.” What does that mean? Can you not sugarcoat it, Mr. Biased Journalist? Can you at least say it’s “one of the worst kicks of all time?” or “a kick that will disgrace his family for seven generations?”

ARIZONA OFFENSE: Going into this season, I knew I’d be fading the Cardinals a lot. In addition to the Super Bowl Loser Syndrome and the Madden Curse, Arizona had to deal with the fact that Kurt Warner’s a 38-year-old man coming off hip surgery.

Warner didn’t look right all preseason, and he has struggled in two of his three games this year. Sure, he set a record for completion percentage against the Jaguars, but his longest throw was 22 yards.

Houston’s defense isn’t very good, but its strength actually happens to be against the pass, where they’re ranked 10th in terms of YPA. The Texans also have only five sacks on the year, but three of those came against Oakland last week. Arizona’s offensive line, particularly Levi Brown, is doing a poor job right now, so Houston might be able to collect several sacks here as well.

The Texans’ greatest liability is against the run, so it helps that Arizona for some reason is not giving the ball to Chris Wells. Tim Hightower is an effective pass-catcher, but he’s a poor runner who won’t be able to exploit Houston’s weakness.

HOUSTON OFFENSE: While the Texans excel versus the pass and can’t stop the run, Arizona is horrible against the pass but shuts down opposing ground attacks pretty well.

That’s great news for Matt Schaub, who happens to be on fire right now. After a poor outing against the Jets, Schaub has thrown for eight touchdowns and two picks, and has averaged close to 300 yards the past three games.

The one caveat here is Houston’s struggles against 3-4 defenses. Three teams have really put the clamps on the Texans’ scoring attack the past two years: Pittsburgh, Baltimore and the Jets. All three of those squads run the 3-4, just like Arizona does. It should be noted though that the Cardinals don’t exactly have the defensive talent that the Steelers, Ravens and Jets possess.

RECAP: I considered this game as my October NFL Pick of the Month. The Cardinals are overrated because of Warner’s hip, this line is way too high, and the public is backing the Cardinals.

I also like the fact that Texans defensive coordinator Frank Bush coached Arizona in 2006. Yes, that’s three years ago, but Warner, Larry Fitzgerald, Anquan Boldin, and several of the offensive linemen and defensive players were on that squad. Bush will be able to provide the Texans with some inside information that Arizona’s other opponents don’t have access to.

When it came down to it, I liked another game just a bit more.

The Psychology. Edge: Texans.

Frank Bush coached the Cardinals from 2004 to 2006 (Warner, Fitzgerald, Boldin, etc.)

The Vegas. Edge: None.
Equal action.

Percentage of money on Arizona: 51% (111,000 bets)

The Trends. Edge: Cardinals.

Texans are 13-23 ATS after a win (7-7 since 2007).

Opening Line: Cardinals -6.

Opening Total: 48.5.

Weather: Dome.

For more trends, check out the Gaming Matchups or the Expanded NFL Analysis.

Week 5 NFL Pick: Texans 31, Cardinals 20
Texans +5.5 (5 Units) — Incorrect; -$550
Over 50 (1 Unit) — Incorrect; -$110
Cardinals 28, Texans 21

New England Patriots (3-1) at Denver Broncos (4-0)
Line: Patriots by 3. Total: 41.
Walt’s Projected Line (Before Week 4): Patriots -3.
Walt’s Projected Line (After Week 4): Patriots -3.
Sunday, 4:15 ET

The Game. Edge: Broncos.
NFL Injuries: AFC Injuries | NFC Injuries

If you missed it the past three weeks, Emmitt on the Brink is back! Season 2, Week 4 will be posted Friday. Last year, Bill Belichick was caught cheating again, and Roger Goodell made Emmitt take over as the Patriots coach as punishment. Now, Emmitt is back as the official head coach. This week, Emmitt prepares to take on the Raiders, who are undefeated with the help of Al Davis’ creation, Glandor.

DENVER OFFENSE: It’s not difficult to believe that the Patriots have struggled against the run this year. With Jerod Mayo out and Richard Seymour traded away, New England is giving up 4.7 yards per carry.

That has to be great news for the Broncos, who run the ball especially well, thanks to one of the league’s best offensive lines. The guys up front will blast open huge holes for Knowshon Moreno in this contest. It’ll just be Moreno here because Correll Buckhalter is out. But that’s a good thing – Moreno is extremely talented and will force the Patriots to suck eight men into the box.

With the ground attack working well once again, all Kyle Orton will have to do is convert third-and-short situations. Orton may throw like a girl, but he’s a very good game-manager who doesn’t make mistakes. Plus, it helps that someone as talented as Brandon Marshall actually happens to be focused on football right now.

NEW ENGLAND OFFENSE: The Patriots have tried to be more balanced against the Falcons and Ravens. It worked in the first contest, but Fred Taylor and Laurence Maroney had no room to work with against the Ravens. The Broncos are fifth versus the rush, so Tom Brady will have to repeat what he did last week.

Of course that doesn’t sound like a bad thing; Brady was 21-of-32 for 258 yards and a touchdown, as Baltimore had no answer for him. However, it should be noted that the Ravens have struggled with the pass all year. In fact, they’re 26th against it. The Broncos? Third.

Denver has 15 sacks already, which means that they’re on pace for 60. That’s pretty sick. Remember how much Brady struggled against the Jets because his offensive line couldn’t protect him? Well, I think the same thing may happen here.

RECAP: Believe it or not, this is my October NFL Pick of the Month. I love the Broncos for several reasons:

JOSH MCDANIELS: It’s Josh McDaniels now; not Josh Mishandles. McDaniels has proven everyone wrong, including myself, regarding his offseason actions.

So, what does McDaniels have to do with this? Well, he has been Tom Brady’s offensive coordinator the past few years. If anyone knows about Brady’s tendencies and how to stop New England’s offense, it’s McDaniels.

I love going with coaches playing their former teams. It’s an angle that works extremely well, and it makes a ton of sense if you think about it. Remember when the Steelers came into Arizona two years ago as heavy favorites and lost? That was because Ken Whisenhunt and Russ Grimm knew exactly how to stop Ben Roethlisberger. This game reminds me a lot of that one.

POOR SPREAD: This line is telling us that the Patriots are 6.5 points better than the Broncos. I can buy three points, but not 6.5.

This is a reputation spread. The Patriots are giving 3.5 points because they happen to be the Patriots. Never mind the fact that Brady has struggled horribly in three of four games this year, and let’s forget that the Broncos are 4-0. The oddsmakers set this line at New England -3.5 because the public isn’t buying into the Broncos, which brings me to…

US VS. THE WORLD: Bill Simmons brought this up on his podcast with Cousin Sal, and it’s something I was looking into as well. The “No One Believed in Us” angle is extremely powerful in football as long as that team is legitimately solid. I’d say 4-0 Denver is pretty solid.

Right now, the Broncos are 4-0, yet no one takes them seriously. They’re home underdogs against a team with a worse record. This is a huge statement game for them.

PLAYING WITH FIRE: That said, I’m not ready anoint the Broncos as a top-10 team yet. In fact, they’re 12th in my 2009 NFL Power Rankings.

However, football is all about momentum. The Broncos are playing with a lot of fire right now, and you don’t fade a team like that.

MILE HIGH: I’m not talking about the fans, who will undoubtedly be out for blood in this game. That will be a factor.

Here’s a greater factor: Including the playoffs, Tom Brady is 102-29 as a starter in his career. Yet, he’s only 1-3 at Denver, which includes a postseason loss. For whatever reason, Brady just doesn’t play well at Invesco Field.

VEGAS: And finally, we get to the Vegas factor. The sportsbooks lost a ton of money the first three weeks of the season. They earned some of it back last week, but they still have a ton of cash to recover.

The Patriots are one of the two heaviest-backed teams this week (Colts over Titans). This isn’t a huge factor, but I can’t see Vegas going 0-2 in these contests.

The Psychology. Edge: Broncos.

Huge game for the Broncos. Josh Mishandles was the offensive coordinator for the Patriots from 2006 to 2008.

The Vegas. Edge: Broncos.

No one believes in the Broncos yet.

Percentage of money on New England: 84% (186,000 bets)

The Trends. Edge: Patriots.

Tom Brady is 102-29 as a starter (78-51 ATS).

Broncos are 18-10 ATS at home when the line is -3 to +3 the previous 28 instances. ???

Opening Line: Patriots -3.5.

Opening Total: 43.

Weather: Partly cloudy, 55 degrees. Light wind.

For more trends, check out the Gaming Matchups or the Expanded NFL Analysis.

Week 5 NFL Pick: Broncos 20, Patriots 13
Broncos +3 (8 Units – October NFL Pick of the Month) — Correct; +$800
Under 41 (.5 Units) — Correct; +$50
Broncos 20, Patriots 17

Indianapolis Colts (4-0) at Tennessee Titans (0-4)
Line: Colts by 3.5. Total: 44.5.
Walt’s Projected Line (Before Week 4): Colts -3.
Walt’s Projected Line (After Week 4): Colts -3.
Sunday, 8:20 ET

The Game. Edge: Colts.

NFL Injuries: AFC Injuries | NFC Injuries

We are now running a NFL Picking Contest on our sister site, DraftDebacled.com. It’s free to enter, and there are monthly prizes ($75 for the winner, $25 for second place), so click on the link to sign up.

Also, a few reminders:

There will be a 2010 NFL Mock Draft update on Thursday.

I’ll also have Week 4 Fantasy Weekly Rankings for you on Thursday.

And finally, there are 87 people still alive in the survivor pool. Make sure you get your picks in by noon Eastern on Sunday.

INDIANAPOLIS OFFENSE: It’s almost sick how hot Peyton Manning is right now (that’s what she said). Manning has gone over 300 passing yards in every game this year. He’s done this on a 9.8 YPA and with a completion percentage of 70.8. Those numbers are incredible.

Manning has also been sacked only twice. That doesn’t bode well for a Titans defensive front that hasn’t been able to get any sort of pressure with its front four.

Manning will easily torch a Titans secondary that really misses Albert Haynesworth right now. There’s a chance that starting corners Cortland Finnegan and Nick Harper could both be out. If so, Manning might have a record day.

TENNESSEE OFFENSE: The Titans’ won’t be able to stop Manning, so it’ll be up to their offense to replicate what the Dolphins did a few weeks ago by staying on the field as long as possible.

Tennessee has the horses to get this done. The offensive line is still elite, and should be able to open up holes for Chris Johnson and LenDale White. If the Titans stick to the running game, Kerry Collins should be able to convert third-and-short situations to Nate Washington and the emerging Kenny Britt.

Johnson will also have to be a major part of Tennessee’s passing attack. If Jeff Fisher and his coaching staff shy away from getting him the ball like they did against the Steelers, there’s no way the Titans will be able to win this game. Johnson needs 25 touches at the very least, and even if they get down early, the Titans cannot, under any circumstances, abandon the running game.

RECAP: This is going to be an emotional game for the Titans. They’re home divisional underdogs against their most hated rival. They’re also playing for their postseason lives. Bouncing back from 0-4 is unlikely, but can be done. However, an 0-5 start will mean that their season is over.

There’s going to be a wave of emotion early in this game. As they did in Miami in Week 2, the Colts will have to weather the storm. It wouldn’t even surprise me if the Titans led at halftime. However, the Colts are an experienced team led by the top quarterback in the NFL. I have a hard time seeing Manning lose this game.

The Psychology. Edge: Titans.

The Titans obviously need this one more, but the Colts hate their AFC South rival and will be looking to avenge a 2008 Monday night loss.

The Vegas. Edge: Titans.

Hmm… wonder where the public is going with this one?

Percentage of money on Indianapolis: 93% (159,000 bets)

The Trends. Edge: Titans.

History: Colts have won 9 of the last 12 meetings (Titans 5-1 ATS since 2006).

Losing Coach: Jeff Fisher is 6-9 ATS after losing as a favorite.

Zero Heroes: 0-4 teams are 20-5 ATS since 2000.

Colts are 34-23 ATS on the road since 2002.

Peyton Manning is 25-18 ATS as a road favorite since 2001.

Titans are 18-9 ATS as underdogs in the post-Steve McNair era.

Opening Line: Colts -3.

Opening Total: 46.

Weather: Partly cloudy, 59 degrees. Light wind.

For more trends, check out the Gaming Matchups or the Expanded NFL Analysis.

Week 5 NFL Pick: Colts 31, Titans 24
Colts -3.5 (1 Unit) — Correct; +$100
Over 44.5 (.5 Units) — Incorrect; -$55
Colts 31, Titans 9

New York Jets (3-1) at Miami Dolphins (1-3)
Line: Jets by 3.5. Total: 36.
Walt’s Projected Line (Before Week 4): Jets -6.
Walt’s Projected Line (After Week 4): Jets -3.
Monday, 8:30 ET

The Game. Edge: None.
NFL Injuries: AFC Injuries | NFC Injuries

This week on Monday Night Football, we get to see Mark Sanchez take on the Dolphins. Unfortunately, we’re going to have Mike Tirico, Ron Jaworski and Jon Gruden calling the shots instead of Emmitt, Herm and Eagles Television Network guy Kevin Reilly (huge homer who called Maurice Jones-Drew “Maurice Drew-Jones” and Torry Holt “Terry Holt”). Here’s how it would sound like if Reilly, Emmitt and Herm were in the booth for this game:

Kevin Reilly: Welcome to Shark Tank Stadium in Miami! Tonight, we have Matt Sanchez and the New York Giants against Chad Hartline and the Dolphins. I’m not sure if this is going to be a great game, guys. I only follow the NFC. What do you think?

Emmitt: Mark Sanchez have great poise, great will and great powerful which you do not see out of a rookie these days this season and maybe last season.

Reilly: Interesting thought, Emmitt. Coach, what do you think about this game? Can the Jets hold Roderick Brown to less than 11 fantasy points so I can win this week?

Herm: Ronnie Brown’s running the Wildcat! Ronnie Brown’s running the Wildcat! Look at it! Look at the Wildcat! Look at it! Look at the Wildcat! Look at the Wildcat! The quarterback’s lined up outside! The quarterback’s lined up outside! Next, the… uhh… ummm…

Reilly: Emmitt, what are your thoughts on this Wildcat business? Before tonight, I thought Wildcat was just an animal. Now I’m hearing that it’s a way to score touchdowns easily? Do you think my Eagles can ever run the Wildcat?

Emmitt: Miami have great successfulness runnin’ the Wildcat, but other team have tried them and it does not work on a consistently basis. I do not have a logical explanations for why it failures with other team.

Reilly: It really is confusing, Emmitt. Good thing my daughter explained it to me. Herm, you look like you really have to go to the bathroom.

Herm: I know the key to the Wildcat! I know the key! Here’s the key! Look at the key! Watch the key! There’s the key! Wait for the key now! Wait for the key! I have the key! Here’s the key! Here it is! Here’s the key! The key is… uhh… umm…

Reilly: We’ll be back after a word from our local sponsors!

NEW YORK OFFENSE: The Jets are a run-heavy team, which has to be music to Miami’s ears, given that they’re fourth versus the rush. They even held the great Marshawn Lynch to just four yards on eight carries last week. New York will stick with the run because that’s their nature, but I can’t see Thomas Jones and Leon Washington having much “successfulness” on the ground.

Mark Sanchez will be pinned into long-yardage situations. He did a great job of converting third-and-longs against the Texans and Patriots, but ever since the second half of the Titans game, he’s been a bit shaky.

The Dolphins aren’t very good against aerial attacks, but I think they’ll be able to rattle Sanchez with their pass rush. Miami has 11 sacks on the year, while Sanchez has taken seven sacks in the past two contests.

MIAMI OFFENSE: The Dolphins also base their offense around the run and the Wildcat. The Jets are giving up 4.2 yards per carry, but that figure is a bit skewed because they didn’t concentrate on Pierre Thomas last week.

With essentially a rookie quarterback under center for Miami, the Jets will sell out against Ronnie Brown and Ricky Williams, and force Chad Henne to beat them.

Henne doesn’t have any experience, but he has a lot more upside than Chad Pennington ever had. Henne went deep on a few plays last week. While he didn’t connect on any of those attempts, he at least showed that he can stretch the defense.

RECAP: With the public all over the Jets, I actually like the Dolphins here. Miami seems to be gaining momentum and confidence with a new quarterback (take note, Jeff Fisher), while Sanchez just suffered his first loss and could begin doubting himself.

Shark Tank Stadium is going to be crazy. Sanchez struggled at the Louisiana Superdome last week, and he’s going to have to deal with the same type of environment Monday night. I’m not sure if he’s ready to handle something like that just yet.

The Psychology. Edge: Dolphins.

These teams hate each other, but the Dolphins are playing with a lot of fire right now.

The Vegas. Edge: Dolphins.

The public thinks that Miami’s win against Buffalo was just a mirage.

Percentage of money on New York: 90% (231,000 bets)

The Trends. Edge: Jets.

History: Jets have won 17 of the last 22 meetings.

Road Rules: Road teams are 133-89 ATS after losing on the road.

Dolphins are 5-2 ATS vs. AFC East since 2008.

Opening Line: Jets -1.

Opening Total: 37.

Weather: Possible thunderstorms, 80 degrees. Mild wind, 11 mph.

For more trends, check out the Gaming Matchups or the Expanded NFL Analysis.

Week 5 NFL Pick: Dolphins 23, Jets 20
Dolphins +3.5 (2 Units) — Correct; +$200
Over 36 (.5 Units) — Correct; +$50
Dolphins 31, Jets 27

Week 5 NFL Picks – Early Games
Browns at Bills, Steelers at Lions, Cowboys at Chiefs, Vikings at Rams, Raiders at Giants, Buccaneers at Eagles, Redskins at Panthers, Bengals at Ravens

Prop/Teaser/Parlay Picks
A list of some of my favorite team/player prop picks this week
(Offense & defensive ROY picks to be counted whenver winners are announced.) Picks carried over on a week-to-week basis will be in black.

Teaser: Cowboys -2, Bills PK (2 Units) — Incorrect; -$220

Live Dog: Redskins +175 (1 Unit) — Incorrect; -$100

Live Dog: Bengals +310 (1 Unit) — Correct; +$310

Live Dog: Texans +190 (1 Unit) — Incorrect; -$100

Live Dog: Broncos +150 (1 Unit) — Correct; +$150

Pyschological Edge Parlay: Bills -6, Eagles -15, Bengals +9, Texans +5.5, Broncos +3.5, Dolphins +2 (.5 Units to win 12.2) — Incorrect; -$50

2009 NFL Season Betting Props

NFL Picks - Nov. 15

2025 NFL Mock Draft - Nov. 13

NFL Power Rankings - Nov. 12

Fantasy Football Rankings - Sept. 4

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2001 Season NFL Picks Against The Spread: 127-122-7 (51.0%)
2002 Season NFL Picks Against The Spread: 123-136-7 (47.5%)
2003 Season NFL Picks Against The Spread: 146-126-8 (53.7%)
2004 Season NFL Picks Against The Spread: 157-123-8 (56.1%)
2005 Season NFL Picks Against The Spread: 156-126-11 (55.3%)
2006 Season NFL Picks Against The Spread: 151-135-9 (52.8%)
2007 Season NFL Picks Against The Spread: 162-135-10, 54.5% (+$3,585)
2008 Season NFL Picks Against The Spread: 148-140-7, 51.4% (+$6,105)
2009 Season NFL Picks Against The Spread: 151-124-9, 54.9% (+$4,235)
2010 Season NFL Picks Against The Spread: 144-131-8, 52.4% (+$5,880)
2011 Season NFL Picks Against The Spread: 137-133-12, 50.7% (-$1,335)
2012 Season NFL Picks Against The Spread: 130-145-8, 47.3% (-$7,445)
2013 Season NFL Picks Against The Spread: 144-131-8, 52.4% (+$7,825)
2014 Season NFL Picks Against The Spread: 143-133-7, 51.8% (-$1,885)
2015 Season NFL Picks Against The Spread: 134-138-12, 49.3% (-$3,215)
2016 Season NFL Picks Against The Spread: 148-127-10, 53.8% (+$780)
2017 Season NFL Picks Against The Spread: 137-140-8, 49.5% (-$4,300)
2018 Season NFL Picks Against The Spread: 140-134-14, 51.3% (+$845)
2019 Season NFL Picks Against The Spread: 149-128-9, 53.6% (+$1,200)
2020 Season NFL Picks Against The Spread: 138-124-7, 52.7% (+$9,350)
2021 Season NFL Picks Against The Spread: 153-141-2, 51.9% (+$210)
2022 Season NFL Picks Against The Spread: 154-134-8, 53.5% (+$9,860)
2023 Season NFL Picks Against The Spread: 144-141-7, 50.5% (-$7,285)

2002 Season 2-3 Unit NFL Picks: 41-49-2 (45.6%)
2003 Season 2-3 Unit NFL Picks: 52-51-2 (50.5%)
2004 Season 2-3 Unit NFL Picks: 65-44-3 (59.6%)
2005 Season 2-3 Unit NFL Picks: 77-61-1 (55.8%)
2006 Season 2-3 Unit NFL Picks: 65-61-4 (51.6%)
2007 Season 2-3 Unit NFL Picks: 83-59-5, 58.5% (+$4,110)
2008 Season 2-3 Unit NFL Picks: 44-57-3, 43.6% (-$3,510)
2009 Season 2-3 Unit NFL Picks: 49-35-3, 58.3% (+$2,260)
2010 Season 2-3 Unit NFL Picks: 51-38-4, 57.3% (+$3,180)
2011 Season 2-3 Unit NFL Picks: 44-51-3, 46.3% (-$2,715)
2012 Season 2-3 Unit NFL Picks: 45-50-2, 47.4% (-$2,130)
2013 Season 2-3 Unit NFL Picks: 38-42, 47.5% (-$2,890)
2015 Season 2-3 Unit NFL Picks: 47-44-1, 51.6% (-$820)
2016 Season 2-3 Unit NFL Picks: 42-35-3, 54.5% (+$475)
2017 Season 2-3 Unit NFL Picks: 32-40-3, 43.8% (-$2,395)
2018 Season 2-3 Unit NFL Picks: 52-41-2, 55.9% (+$2,670)
2019 Season 2-3 Unit NFL Picks: 44-36-2, 55.0% (+$655)
2020 Season 2-3 Unit NFL Picks: 47-43-3, 52.2% (-$1,965)
2021 Season 2-3 Unit NFL Picks: 50-50, 50.0% (-$1,570)
2022 Season 2-3 Unit NFL Picks: 56-44-2, 56.0% (+$1,860)
2023 Season 2-3 Unit NFL Picks: 44-40-3, 52.4% (+$285)

2002 Season 4-5 Unit NFL Picks: 11-12 (47.8%)
2003 Season 4-5 Unit NFL Picks: 16-13-1 (55.2%)
2004 Season 4-5 Unit NFL Picks: 18-11 (62.1%)
2005 Season 4-5 Unit NFL Picks: 25-22-1 (53.2%)
2006 Season 4-5 Unit NFL Picks: 21-29-1 (42.0%)
2007 Season 4-5 Unit NFL Picks: 35-30-2, 53.8% (+$420)
2008 Season 4-5 Unit NFL Picks: 39-26-2, 60.0% (+$4,055)
2009 Season 4-5 Unit NFL Picks: 29-26, 52.7% (+$330)
2010 Season 4-5 Unit NFL Picks: 32-22, 59.3% (+$4,790)
2011 Season 4-5 Unit NFL Picks: 14-14, 50.0% (-$1,260)
2012 Season 4-5 Unit NFL Picks: 14-21, 40.0% (-$3,650)
2013 Season 4-5 Unit NFL Picks: 17-9-3, 65.4% (+$2,970)
2015 Season 4-5 Unit NFL Picks: 17-16-2, 51.5% (-$1,120)
2016 Season 4-5 Unit NFL Picks: 21-22-5, 48.8% (-$1,465)
2017 Season 4-5 Unit NFL Picks: 20-22-1, 47.6% (-$1,595)
2018 Season 4-5 Unit NFL Picks: 27-32-1, 45.8% (-$4,735)
2019 Season 4-5 Unit NFL Picks: 37-27-2, 57.8% (+$2,185)
2020 Season 4-5 Unit NFL Picks: 37-22-1, 62.7% (+$5,515)
2021 Season 4-5 Unit NFL Picks: 32-32-1, 50.0% (-$725)
2022 Season 4-5 Unit NFL Picks: 41-30-1, 57.8% (+$3,725)
2023 Season 4-5 Unit NFL Picks: 32-27-1, 54.2% (-$1,310)

2001 Season Over-Under: 3-2 (60.0%)
2002 Season Over-Under: 121-91-3 (57.1%)
2003 Season Over-Under: 126-132-2 (48.8%)
2004 Season Over-Under: 139-124-4 (52.9%)
2005 Season Over-Under: 117-145-4 (44.7%)
2006 Season Over-Under: 129-132-5 (49.4%)
2007 Season Over-Under: 136-145-3, 48.4% (-$1,900)
2008 Season Over-Under: 137-125-6, 52.3% (+$860)
2009 Season Over-Under: 128-135-4, 48.7% (-$3,195)
2010 Season Over-Under: 128-135-5, 48.7% (-$5)
2011 Season Over-Under: 131-131-5, 50.0% (+$135)
2012 Season Over-Under: 125-121-5, 50.8% (+$30)
2013 Season Over-Under: 132-130-5, 50.4% (-$340)
2015 Season Over-Under: 143-119-5, 54.6% ($0)
2016 Season Over-Under: 123-141-1, 46.6% (+$95)
2017 Season Over-Under: 136-139-2, 49.5% (+$640)
2018 Season Over-Under: 118-128-3, 48.0% (-$225)
2019 Season Over-Under: 126-133-4, 48.6% (-$50)
2020 Season Over-Under: 141-122-6, 53.6% ($0)
2021 Season Over-Under: 132-151-3, 46.6% ($0)
2022 Season Over-Under: 133-149-2, 47.2% (-$225)
2023 Season Over-Under: 145-135-3, 51.8% (+$200)

2007 Season Prop/ML/Teaser/Parlay Picks: +$1,035
2008 Season Prop/ML/Teaser/Parlay Picks: +$1,775
2009 Season Prop/ML/Teaser/Parlay Picks: +$865
2010 Season Prop/ML/Teaser/Parlay Picks: -$200
2011 Season Prop/ML/Teaser/Parlay Picks: +$590
2012 Season Prop/ML/Teaser/Parlay Picks: -$1,685
2013 Season Prop/ML/Teaser/Parlay Picks: +$2,245
2015 Season Prop/ML/Teaser/Parlay Picks: -$855
2016 Season Prop/ML/Teaser/Parlay Picks: -$275
2017 Season Prop/ML/Teaser/Parlay Picks: -$510
2018 Season Prop/ML/Teaser/Parlay Picks: +$1,495
2019 Season Prop/ML/Teaser/Parlay Picks: -$1,715
2020 Season Prop/ML/Teaser/Parlay Picks: +$4,975
2021 Season Prop/ML/Teaser/Parlay Picks: +$3,455
2022 Season Prop/ML/Teaser/Parlay Picks: +$5,720
2023 Season Prop/ML/Teaser/Parlay Picks: -$2,565

2006 NFL Picks of the Month: 3-3 (50%)
2007 NFL Picks of the Month: 3-3, 50.0% (-$400)
2008 NFL Picks of the Month: 6-1, 85.7% (+$3,720)
2009 NFL Picks of the Month: 3-2, 60.0% (+$640)
2010 NFL Picks of the Month: 2-4, 33.3% (-$1,810)
2011 NFL Picks of the Month: 5-2, 71.4% (+$1,870)
2012 NFL Picks of the Month: 3-2, 60.0% (+$560)
2013 NFL Picks of the Month: 6-0, 100% (+$3,900)
2014 NFL Picks of the Month: 2-4, 33.3% (-$1,350)
2015 NFL Picks of the Month: 3-3, 50.0% (-$100)
2016 NFL Picks of the Month: 5-1, 83.3% (+$2,780)
2017 NFL Picks of the Month: 4-2, 66.7% (+$1,040)
2018 NFL Picks of the Month: 4-3, 57.1% (-$640)
2019 NFL Picks of the Month: 3-3-1, 50.0% (-$625)
2020 NFL Picks of the Month: 3-2, 60.0% (+$665)
2021 NFL Picks of the Month: 2-3, 40.0% (-$920)
2022 NFL Picks of the Month: 3-4, 42.9% (-$1,615)
2023 NFL Picks of the Month: 2-5, 28.6% (-$2,550)

Career NFL Picks Against The Spread: 3,499-3,231-202, 52.0% (+$17,105)
Career 2-3 Unit NFL Picks: 1,126-1,010-57 (52.7%)
Career 4-5 Unit NFL Picks: 568-502-25 (53.1%)
Career Over-Under: 2,935-2,908-76 (50.2%)
Career Second-Half NFL Picks: 23-16-1 (59.0%)
Career NFL Picks of the Month: 47-36-1 (56.6%)

My Team-by-Team ATS Record
This section shows how well I do when picking each team this year. The purpose is to see how well I read each team. Pushes are not displayed. Winning/losing streak in parentheses.

Cowboys: 5-3	Bears: 4-5	Bucs: 6-4	49ers: 6-3
Eagles: 4-5	Lions: 8-1	Falcons: 5-5	Cardinals: 8-2
Giants: 3-6	Packers: 5-3	Panthers: 4-6	Rams: 4-5
Redskins: 4-5	Vikings: 3-6	Saints: 5-5	Seahawks: 6-2

Bills: 3-7	Bengals: 2-8	Colts: 5-5	Broncos: 6-4
Dolphins: 3-6	Browns: 3-6	Jaguars: 2-7	Chargers: 5-3
Jets: 5-5	Ravens: 4-5	Texans: 4-6	Chiefs: 3-5
Patriots: 5-3	Steelers: 3-6	Titans: 5-3	Raiders: 4-5

Divisional: 18-22 (2011-23: 608-561)	2x Game Edge: 14-13 (2011-23: 401-387)	2x Motivation Edge: 30-24 (2011-23: 510-441)	2x Spread Edge: 18-27 (2011-23: 239-211)
2x Vegas Edge: 30-41 (2011-23: 448-446)	2x Trend Edge: 12-7 (2011-23: 321-293)	Double Edge: 11-16 (2011-23: 207-185)	Triple Edge: 4-7 (2011-23: 33-37)