NFL Picks Against the Spread: Week 8, 2017

NFL Picks (Preseason 2017): 9-10-1 (-$110)
NFL Picks (Week 1, 2017): 8-6-1 (+$135)
NFL Picks (Week 2, 2017): 9-7 (+$45)
NFL Picks (Week 3, 2017): 5-11 (-$425)
NFL Picks (Week 4, 2017): 5-11 (+$90)
NFL Picks (Week 5, 2017): 8-6 (+$1,080)
NFL Picks (Week 6, 2017): 6-8 (-$640)
NFL Picks (Week 7, 2017): 3-10-2 (-$2,180)

NFL Picks (2017): 53-69-4 (-$2,005)
NFL Picks (2016): 148-127-10 (+$1,055)
NFL Picks (2015): 133-138-10 (-$2,360)
NFL Picks (2014): 143-132-7 (-$1,115)
NFL Picks (2013): 144-131-8 (+$5,580)
NFL Picks (2012): 130-145-8 (-$5,760)
NFL Picks (2011): 137-133-12 (-$1,925)
NFL Picks (2010): 144-131-8 (+$6,080)
NFL Picks (2009): 151-124-9 (+$3,370)
NFL Picks (2008): 136-125-6 (+$4,330)
If you don’t quite understand the line, total or anything else, go to my Sports Betting FAQ.

Vegas betting action updated Oct. 30, 6:45 p.m. ET. Follow @walterfootball for updates.

Go to Week 8 NFL Picks – Late Games

Miami Dolphins (4-2) at Baltimore Ravens (3-4)
Line: Ravens by 3. Total: 37.5.
Las Vegas Hilton Advance Point Spread: Ravens -4.5.
Walt’s Calculated Line: Ravens -1.5.
Thursday, Oct 26, 8:25 PM
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The Game. Edge: Dolphins.

WEEK 7 RECAP: I just had one of my worst weeks ever, going 3-10-2 (-$2,180). Sunday was so incredibly frustrating, but I can at least take solace in that I was not alone. Take a look at this:

The sharps were crushed in Week 7. I’ve never seen anything like that. Only the Bears were correct, as they went 1-7. I don’t copy sharp plays; I make my picks before I see what they’re doing. Unfortunately, we were all on the same teams this week, with the exception of the Cardinals and Giants, and we all were destroyed.

I just don’t know what to make of it. I feel like some of the games could’ve gone so much differently. For example, the Packers were winning in the fourth quarter, but blew their lead. The Falcons missed two field goals, had an interception overturned by a dumb penalty and were stuffed at the 1-yard line. The Broncos allowed a punt return to the Chargers, allowing them to play ahead. The Ravens lost Mike Wallace on the second play of the game, so Joe Flacco had no one to throw to. I’m not saying I should’ve won any of those games, but they could have just gone a lot differently.

I’ll be posting these NFL Picks all day Tuesday. Follow me at @walterfootball for updates.

BALTIMORE OFFENSE: The Ravens were absolutely anemic against the Vikings. They averaged 3.3 yards per play, as Joe Flacco, who was constantly under pressure, had no one to throw to downfield. Mike Wallace was supposed to be his primary target, but he suffered a concussion on a brutal hit by Andrew Sendejo on the second drive of the game. The penalty on Sendejo set up a field goal, but Baltimore couldn’t do anything for the rest of the game.

Wallace is unlikely to be available on such a short week, but Jeremy Maclin probably will suit up. But will that be enough? The Dolphins don’t have a very good back seven, to put it nicely, so Flacco should have some success hitting Maclin, and especially Ben Watson if he has time.

Whether Flacco’s protection holds up is the issue, however. Marshal Yanda’s absence has been felt, as the Ravens are just 1-4 since the All-Pro guard got hurt. In those five games, they’ve posted 7, 9, 30 (vs. the Raiders), 24 (two special-teams touchdowns against Chicago) and 16 (a late garbage score included last week). It’s unlikely that the Ravens will generate much offense, especially since Yanda’s pedestrian replacement will have to go up against Ndamukong Suh.

MIAMI OFFENSE: Matt Moore will be starting this game for the injured Jay Cutler, but that’s a good thing. The Dolphins are the only team in the NFL that has better backups than starters, as we witnessed in Moore’s tremendous fourth-quarter comeback versus the Jets. Moore played well in relief in Ryan Tannehill’s absence last year, so it wasn’t a surprise to see him provide an upgrade over Cutler.

Moore, like Flacco, will have some pass-protection issues he’ll have to deal with, especially if Laremy Tunsil is out. Tunsil hurt his knee against the Jets, but there’s still a chance he’ll be in the lineup. He’ll be needed against Terrell Suggs, though that was already a bad matchup. An even worse one is Brandon Williams versus left guard Anthony Steen and center Mike Pouncey. Moore has some advantages he’ll be able to take care of in the linebacking corps and secondary if he has time, but Baltimore could make sure that he won’t have many opportunities.

Speaking of Pouncey, he’s another inferior starter who happens to be playing instead of a superior backup. Pouncey is a tremendous talent, but he’s injured. He needs hip surgery. Jake Brendel replaced him against the Falcons, and the Dolphins had tons of success running the ball. Instead of using Brendel versus the Jets, the Dolphins went back to Pouncey, and Ajayi couldn’t find rushing room as a consequence. Perhaps that’ll be different against the Ravens, who somehow couldn’t contain Latavius Murray despite Williams returning to the lineup. Of all the nonsense in Week 7, that was one of the most confusing things to transpire.

RECAP: I don’t quite understand this spread. The opener of +3.5 was bizarre, but +3 with plus juice still doesn’t make a ton of sense to me. I have the Dolphins, with a superior quarterback, rated 1.5 points better than the ailing Ravens. I wish I could have gotten +3.5, but +3.5 +105 (at 5Dimes) is still very appealing.

Because this spread didn’t make much sense to me, I wondered if this was some sort of trap, but it’s not like the public is all over the Dolphins. The action is even, perhaps because casual bettors don’t trust Moore. I do, at least more than Cutler. In fact, if Cutler were playing this game, I’d be less likely to bet Miami.

I’m going to take the Dolphins for two units. I might make it three depending on the injuries, particularly to Tunsil.

THURSDAY THOUGHTS: It sucks, but the juice has moved toward the Dolphins. They were +3 +105 on Tuesday, but the line is now +3 -110 or -115, depending on where you look. I’m still waiting on Laremy Tunsil, but depending on his status, I may decrease this to one unit.

FINAL THOUGHTS: I’m sticking with two units on the Dolphins. Laremy Tunsil is playing, which is important considering the Terrell Suggs matchup. DeVante Parker being out isn’t ideal, but the Ravens are missing Mike Wallace, and Matt Moore showed some great rapport with Kenny Stills anyway. I think there’s a good chance this ends up being a push, but I think the Dolphins have a halfway decent chance of covering. The sharps, by the way, took Dolphins +3.5, but have been silent at this number.

The Psychology. Edge: None.
No edge found.

The Vegas. Edge: None.
Equal action.

Percentage of money on Baltimore: 55% (30,000 bets)

The Trends. Edge: Dolphins.

Underdog is 78-46 ATS in the Dolphins’ last 124 games.

Dolphins are 22-8 ATS as a road underdog of less than 5 since 2008.

Ravens are 25-19 ATS at home as an underdog or favorite of 1-7 points with Joe Flacco.

Opening Line: Ravens -3.

Opening Total: 38.

Weather: .

Week 8 NFL Pick: Ravens 17, Dolphins 16
Dolphins +3 (2 Units) — Incorrect; -$220
Under 37.5 (0.5 Units) — Incorrect; -$55
Ravens 40, Dolphins 0

Minnesota Vikings (5-2) vs. Cleveland Browns (0-7)
Line: Vikings by 10.5. Total: 38.5.
Las Vegas Hilton Advance Point Spread: Vikings -7.5.
Walt’s Calculated Line: Vikings -11.5.
Sunday, Oct 29, 9:30 AM
At London
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The Game. Edge: Vikings.

My overrated-underrated feature will continue in this spot, and I’m going to emphasize injuries (particularly those on the offensive line)…

Underrated NFL Teams:

Atlanta Falcons: I hate that I keep making excuses for the Falcons, but hear me out. Their first loss occurred because Julio Jones and Mohamed Sanu got hurt, and despite their absences, Matt Ryan still nearly won at the very end. Their second defeat transpired because the team blew a 17-0 halftime lead. The third was against the Patriots in basically what happened to be an “F-U game” from Bill Belichick, who wanted to prove that his defense isn’t horrible. Plus, Atlanta missed two field goals, got stuffed at the 1-yard line, and had an interception overturned by penalty.

Denver Broncos: The Broncos lost by 13 to the Giants, but they outgained the Giants and averaged more yards per play. If it weren’t for a pick-six, it would’ve been a six-point game at the very end. This past week, the Broncos suffered a defeat against the Chargers, but that was a byproduct of some fumbles and a punt return touchdown. The offense looks miserable right now, but I don’t think things are as bad as they seem for Denver.

Detroit Lions: The Lions desperately needed a bye, and I think it’ll help them big time. Matthew Stafford, Ziggy Ansah, T.J. Lang and Travis Swanson were all banged up heading into their week off, and they’ve had two weeks to heal up. It wouldn’t surprise me at all if the Lions were much better following the bye.

Tampa Bay Buccaneers: The Buccaneers lost a coin-flip game to the Bills. Had they prevailed, they’d be 3-3, and no one would be saying the sky is falling in Tampa. I’m not sure why the defense isn’t playing well, as the team has the talent to be better on that side of the ball. However, I think the Buccaneers shouldn’t be counted out, and I could see them getting started on a long winning streak sometime soon.

Overrated NFL Teams:

Buffalo Bills: The Bills have improved to 4-2 and are now getting a ton of hype, so they can be viewed as an overrated team. With the Broncos struggling, Buffalo’s second-best win of the season seems less impressive now. Their greatest victory, a triumph in Atlanta, occurred because Julio Jones got hurt. Meanwhile, the win over the Buccaneers this past Sunday was a coin-flip game. I don’t trust Tyrod Taylor and his poor receiving weapons.

New Orleans Saints: I think the Saints are a good team. Their offensive line is better with Terron Armstead back, and the defense has improved. However, their four victories aren’t all that impressive, considering two of the quarterbacks they’ve beaten were playing hurt (Cam Newton, Matthew Stafford), while the other two were Jay Cutler in London and Brett Hundley. I had the urge to put the Saints as high as No. 5 in my power rankings, but after thinking about it, I realized I was overrating them.

Seattle Seahawks: I’m hesitant to call the Seahawks overrated because they’re fully capable of going on a great winning streak. However, they have not looked impressive at all this year, save for the second half against the Colts. They can’t block whatsoever, they struggle to run the ball, and the defense just doesn’t look the same. The Giants led at halftime in the Week 7 matchup, and if it weren’t for an Eli Manning lost fumble, New York may have tied or taken the lead in the fourth quarter.

MINNESOTA OFFENSE: Several weeks ago, Case Keenum would’ve absolutely thrived in this matchup. The Browns blitzed more than any other team in the NFL, yet generated the least pressure, somehow. It was an amazing feat. That has since changed with Myles Garrett on the field. He, Danny Shelton and Emmanuel Ogbah are doing a good job of getting to the quarterback, so Keenum will need his offensive line to hold up.

I like the matchups for Garrett and Shelton, especially considering that Riley Reiff is banged up. Meanwhile, the Browns potentially have a pair of talented cornerbacks to help defend Adam Thielen and Stefon Diggs, if he returns to the field this week. I wrote “potentially” because top cornerback Jason McCourty is also considered questionable. Meanwhile, Briean Boddy-Calhoun matches up nicely versus Thielen in the slot. Keenum’s one true advantage, if McCourty is out, will be Kyle Rudolph against the Cleveland linebackers, who have struggled.

The Vikings were able to run extremely well versus the Ravens last week. However, the Browns have been more effective versus the rush; they’ve surrendered more than 100 yards on the ground to running backs just once all year. They limited the Tennessee backs to 72 yards on 31 attempts last week, so they should do a solid job against Latavius Murray and Jerick McKinnon.

CLEVELAND OFFENSE: The Vikings’ offensive line concerns pale in comparison to what the Browns have to deal with in this game. For the first time since 2006, Joe Thomas will not be starting for the Browns. His replacement will be Spencer Drango, who struggled last week. Drango, as well as poor right tackle Shon Coleman, will be tasked with blocking Everson Griffen and Danielle Hunter, respectively. That does not sound like it’s going to end well for the Browns and their quarterback.

By the way, as of this writing, we still don’t know who the signal-caller will be. Cody Kessler was better than DeShone Kizer last week, but only by default. Kizer is an epically atrocious quarterback, and Cleveland had no chance of winning with him. Kessler is pretty bad as well, but I wouldn’t characterize him as “epically atrocious.” That said, he won’t have much of a chance in this game, considering the poor pass rush and the lack of weapons at his disposal.

It would be nice if the Browns could run the ball well, but I can’t see that happening. The Vikings shut down the rush better than the Browns do – no team has gained 100 rushing yards against them all year – and Isaiah Crowell couldn’t even do anything with Thomas blocking for him.

RECAP: This is a lopsided matchup, so I had some interest in placing a small wager on the Vikings at -7.5. Unfortunately, that spread has disappeared. In fact, it’s up to -9.5, and it could keep climbing.

I still like Minnesota, though for a non-wager because most of the value is gone (my number is Vikings -11.5, and the marginal difference between -9.5 and -11.5 is about 3.3%). I like betting the superior squad in these early London games, as we’ve seen trash teams completely quit. If the Browns fall behind early, they could pack it in, and it wouldn’t surprise me if Hue Jackson is fired before he boards the plane going home.

THURSDAY THOUGHTS: The Browns are missing Myles Garrett and potentially Jason McCourty, while the Vikings could get Stefon Diggs back from injury. The Vikings look more appealing, but not enough for me to bet on them.

SATURDAY NOTES (ON FRIDAY): The Browns are down two of their best defensive players (Myles Garrett, Jason McCourty), while the Vikings are up one of their best offensive talents (Stefon Diggs). This seems like a blowout.

FINAL THOUGHTS: Are you ready for some terrible football on Sunday morning!? Yeah, this is great! OK, not. Hopefully this is the final early Sunday morning game ever. It would help if this were an ugly blowout, and I get the feeling that’s what’s going to happen. The better team usually dominates these miserable games, and Minnesota is obviously superior. The Vikings will have Stefon Diggs for sure, while the Browns will be missing their top edge rusher and best cornerback. Unfortunately, this line is too high, thanks to public and sharp action on the NFC squad. This is a concern because there could be a back-door score. I still like Minnesota to cover though.

The Psychology. Edge: None.
No edge found.

The Vegas. Edge: Browns.

No surprise that people are betting the Vikings.

Percentage of money on Minnesota: 75% (18,000 bets)

The Trends. Edge: Vikings.

Mike Zimmer is 36-17 ATS as head coach of the Vikings.

Opening Line: Vikings -7.5.

Opening Total: 38.

Weather: .

Week 8 NFL Pick: Vikings 24, Browns 10
Vikings -10.5 (0 Units) — Correct; $0
Under 38.5 (0 Units) — Incorrect; $0
Vikings 33, Browns 16

Chicago Bears (3-4) at New Orleans Saints (4-2)
Line: Saints by 9. Total: 46.5.
Las Vegas Hilton Advance Point Spread: Saints -8.5.
Walt’s Calculated Line: Saints -7.5.
Sunday, Oct 29, 1:00 PM
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The Game. Edge: Saints.

VEGAS UPDATE: I’ll be posting how the Vegas sportsbooks have done the previous week in this spot. Here were last week’s most-bet sides:

Chiefs -3

Jaguars -3

Titans -5.5

Panthers -3

Cowboys -6

The highest-bet sides were 11-16-1 heading into Week 7 after the Week 6 blood bath for the public. The books had a down week this time, as three of the highly bet teams covered. Highest-bet sides are now 14-18-1.

Here are the five highest-bet sides, as of Tuesday morning:

Chiefs -7.5

Raiders +2.5

Falcons -4

Vikings -9.5

Patriots -7.5

There’s one underdog in the mix, and that happens to be the Raiders, whom the public just saw beat their beloved Chiefs on national TV.

Oh, and our weekly fantasy football contest has returned. It’s like DFS, but weekly and free, and there are cash prizes! There’s no reason not to enter, and you can submit up to five lineups per week! Click the link here for our new Weekly Fantasy Football Contest!

NEW ORLEANS OFFENSE: The Saints have been explosive offensively the past two weeks, as they’ve run the ball much better with Adrian Peterson gone. Peterson was a poor fit for the Saints because it was obvious that they were going to call running plays whenever he was in the game. Now, teams don’t know what to do. If Drew Brees is on point, how can teams defend his downfield throws while worrying about Mark Ingram and Alvin Kamara exploding out of the backfield?

That said, it has helped that the Saints have battled two poor defenses since their bye. The Bears certainly do not have a bad stop unit. They’re strong mostly everywhere, especially in the interior of their defensive line. Akiem Hicks and Mitch Unrein are both having great years, and I love their matchups in this game. The Saints block well on the edges, but their interior protectors are poor, especially with guard Larry Warford being hurt.

Brees hates pressure up the middle more than anything, so if the Bears can put some heat on him, that could force some errant throws. Chicago, of course, has some talented play-makers in the secondary. Eddie Jackson is getting all the acclaim for his two touchdowns versus Carolina, but Adrian Amos has actually been the better safety this year. Both players should prevent Brees from hitting too many passes deep downfield, while Prince Amukamara figures to handle Michael Thomas fairly well.

CHICAGO OFFENSE: It’s hard to believe that the Bears won an NFL game by attempting just seven passes. I’ll go out on a limb and say that Mitchell Trubisky will have to throw more than seven times to beat the Saints. This would be perfectly fine if New Orleans’ defense still happened to be terrible, but that’s hardly the case anymore.

The Saints have improved by leaps and bounds on this side of the ball this year. Rookie cornerback Marshon Lattimore is unbelievable, while Ken Crawley, starting on the other side, is also solid. Second-year defensive tackle Sheldon Rankins has shown improvement, while defensive end Cameron Jordan is one of the top defensive linemen in the NFL. He should be able to blow by right tackle Bobby Massie, the Bears’ weak link on the offensive line. Rolling out to the right could be difficult for Trubisky because of Jordan.

That said, the Bears love pounding the rock, and the Saints don’t defend the rush all that well. They’re not horrible against it, but they did just surrender 137 yards on the ground to the Packers. Jordan Howard should have another great game, and I like Tarik Cohen’s matchup against the Saints’ poor linebackers. That’s the one area of the defense that New Orleans still needs to upgrade, and Chicago should be able to take advantage of it.

RECAP: I made the Saints 7.5-point favorites, which is what the opening line was. The spread has since risen to -9. I think the line is a bit high, so I’m inclined to take the underdog. I think New Orleans could be overvalued; its previous three victories have been against Jay Cutler, a completely banged-up Lions team, and Brett Hundley. Chicago’s defense, meanwhile, should be able to keep the team within striking distance.

However, this is not a game I’ll be betting on. My concern is this: If Brees hits a couple of big plays early somehow, and goes up 14-0 in the early stages of the game, what are the Bears going to do? I don’t think Trubisky has the talent around him to engage in a potential shootout with Brees.

THURSDAY THOUGHTS: There have been no indications from the sharps that they’re going to be betting the Bears. I don’t exactly blame them, as this line is pretty close to what it should be.

SATURDAY NOTES: There are no injury updates to report about, and there’s still no sign that the sharps are going to take this large underdog, though that could certainly change by Sunday morning.

FINAL THOUGHTS: The sharps hit the Bears +9.5 Sunday morning. This spread has dropped to +7.5 as a result, though it’s still +9 -115 at Bovada. I still have no interest in betting this game.

The Psychology. Edge: None.
No edge found.

The Vegas. Edge: Saints.
Decent action on New Orleans.

Percentage of money on New Orleans: 61% (21,000 bets)

The Trends. Edge: Saints.

Saints are 37-27 ATS as a home favorite since 2007.

Drew Brees is 40-27 ATS off back-to-back wins.

Opening Line: Saints -9.

Opening Total: 50.

Weather: Dome.

Week 8 NFL Pick: Saints 24, Bears 17
Bears +9 (0 Units) — Correct; $0
Under 46.5 (0 Units) — Correct; $0
Saints 20, Bears 12

Atlanta Falcons (3-3) at New York Jets (3-4)
Line: Falcons by 7. Total: 43.5.
Las Vegas Hilton Advance Point Spread: Falcons -7.
Walt’s Calculated Line: Falcons -3.
Sunday, Oct 29, 1:00 PM
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The Game. Edge: Falcons.

HATE MAIL: I will be posting lots of hate mail this season. Here’s an actual e-mail I received:

Underdogs have been hitting at an absurd rate this season, so I suppose it’s only natural that they struggled this week.

Of course, Ross Avila was involved despite being just 11-23-1/12-22-1 with his picks:

And yes, Ross copied the Supercontest leader’s picks. Every one of them. Words can’t describe how pathetic he is, though we knew this already because he has to pretend to be an intern at Google.

Finally, I got e-mails from this guy all week:

Well, I’m not sure I can argue with that, especially after my -$2,180 week.

ATLANTA OFFENSE: It’s amazing that the Falcons are so incompetent offensively despite having the same talent as last year. The difference, of course, is offensive coordinator Steve Sarkisian, who replaced Kyle Shanahan. Sarkisian’s problem has been his predictability. He’s running the ball too often on first down, yet he’s not calling enough running plays somehow. It’s weird. But I definitely felt like Tony Romo watching the Sunday night game. I was able to guess what the Falcons were going to do most of the time, and that’s not me bragging at all. I’m just pointing out how inept Sarkisian is!

The Falcons match up well with the Jets, but I said the same thing last week before Sarkisian ruined that potential victory. New York, like New England, has poor linebackers, so Devonta Freeman, Tevin Coleman and Austin Hooper should be able to take advantage of them. The trio combined for just four receptions Sunday night, which is ridiculous. Freeman and Coleman have just an average matchup as runners, but a smart coordinator would be able to figure out how to get them the ball in space. Sarkisian seems incapable of doing that.

Meanwhile, Julio Jones should have a great game, at least on paper. Targeting him in the end zone would be smart rather than running jet sweeps. Matt Ryan figures to have enough time in the pocket – New York has just one consistent pass-rusher in Kony Ealy – so there won’t be any excuses if Jones doesn’t get the ball outside of garbage time again.

NEW YORK OFFENSE: The Jets have some advantages on this side of the ball. They seem more likely to capitalize on those edges against the Falcons, sadly, as they are better coached for sure.

Like the Jets, the Falcons have some issues at linebacker. Buffalo was able to expose this a few weeks ago by having Tyrod Taylor target Charles Clay as often as possible. As it so happens, Josh McCown’s top threat is Austin Seferian-Jenkins. I don’t see the Falcons having much success covering him, or either of the pass-catching running backs, for that matter. McCown, because of his limitations, targets Bilal Powell and Matt Forte frequently, and both players should have considerable gains against the Jets.

Powell and Forte should have success running the ball as well. Atlanta’s ground defense is atrocious; the team has surrendered 100 or more rushing yards to each of their previous three opponents. In fact, the only teams that haven’t gained 100 rushing yards against the Falcons this year have been the Packers and Lions, both of whom were way behind in the first half and had to abandon the run as a consequence.

RECAP: We’re getting some nice value on the Falcons, per the advance line. Atlanta was -7 prior to Week 7, yet the spread has fallen three points because of what everyone saw Sunday night.

As poor as the Falcons looked on national TV, I don’t think they’re that bad. They probably would’ve beaten the Bills had Julio Jones not gotten hurt. They blew a 17-0 lead to the Dolphins because they fell asleep at the wheel. And against the Patriots, who, by the way, are one of the top teams in the NFL, they had an interception erased because of a dumb penalty, missed two field goals and were stuffed at the 1-yard line. That game could’ve been a lot closer, and if it had been, what would this line be? Something like -6?

Unfortunately, while this might be a nice buy-low opportunity on the Falcons, I don’t exactly trust them right now. Sarkisian is awful, and it wouldn’t surprise me at all if Atlanta continued to struggle. I wanted Falcons -3 this week, but -4 doesn’t seem safe enough.

THURSDAY THOUGHTS: This line continues to move up to -4.5 (-5 in some books) because of public money. The sharps have not bet the Jets yet. This is a tough game I don’t want a part of.

SATURDAY NOTES (ON FRIDAY): There are a few games I wanted to address on Friday, beginning with this one. The sharps and public have bet the Falcons up to -6. The Jets are even +6 -105 at Bovada! This number is too high for a team struggling so much, and I’m going to switch my pick to New York as a consequence.

FINAL THOUGHTS: The public and sharps continue to bet the Falcons, and this line is up to -6 -125 or -7 +100. I like the Jets at +7 -120. I’m going to bet a unit on Jets +7 -120 at BetUS.

The Psychology. Edge: None.
No edge found.

The Vegas. Edge: Jets.

The public isn’t as down on the Falcons just yet.

Percentage of money on Atlanta: 73% (10,000 bets)

The Trends. Edge: .

Falcons are 23-10 ATS following a loss of 6+ in the previous 33 instances.

Opening Line: Falcons -4.5.

Opening Total: 47.

Weather: Rain, 66 degrees. Mild wind, 13 mph.

Week 8 NFL Pick: Falcons 27, Jets 23
Jets +7 -120 (1 Unit) — Correct; +$100
Over 43.5 (0 Units) — Correct; $0
Falcons 25, Jets 20

Carolina Panthers (4-3) at Tampa Bay Buccaneers (2-4)
Line: Buccaneers by 1. Total: 46.
Las Vegas Hilton Advance Point Spread: No Line (Winston).
Walt’s Calculated Line: Buccaneers -2.
Sunday, Oct 29, 1:00 PM
Comment on this game

The Game. Edge: Buccaneers.

I wouldn’t say my weekly random NFL notes cluttered these picks pages, so I’ll keep them here. What I’m also going to do is store all of them in a Random NFL Notes section so that you can go back and read previous entries in the future.

Some random NFL notes I can’t put anywhere else:

1. Perhaps I wouldn’t have gone 0-5 in the Supercontest had I listened to my dad. I was at my parents’ house on Wednesday, having dinner, when my dad asked me which teams I was taking in the Supercontest this week…

“Let’s see… Bengals… Ravens… Packers…”

My dad let out a groan. The following exchange ensued.

Dad: Why are you betting against the Saints?

Me: I think the line’s too high and I think…

Dad: How many f***ing times do I have to tell you? Don’t bet or against on the f***ing Saints!

Me: But…

Dad: No! They’re a crooked team! If you bet on them, they’ll find a way to score only 10 points like they did against the Vikings. If you bet against them, they score 54 like they did against the Lions. This f***ing team is f***ing crooked! I’m telling you, don’t f***ing bet them!

Me: But…

Dad (looking at my mom): Tell your son to not bet on or against the f***ing Saints!

Mom: What, I can’t tell him not to bet on or against a crooked team, if he’s going to bet on or against a crooked team, he’s going to do it.

My dad is a great conspiracy theorist, but perhaps he’s right about this one.

2. Speaking of conspiracy theorists, I happen to be one as well. As a Hall of Fame running back once said, “The apple do not fall far from the orange.”

I have a juicy conspiracy theory for you this week, which I referenced in the NFL Power Rankings page.

I’m always one to talk about NFL officials fixing games, but some of them are just incompetent. That’s certainly the case for Pete Morelli, who completely botched the Panthers-Eagles Thursday night game back in Week 6. He was so bad that Philadelphia fans began a petition to prevent Morelli from ever officiating Eagles games ever again. Why is this, you ask? Morelli, in his previous four Philadelphia games:

Eagles penalties: 40 for 396 yards
Opponent penalties: 8 for 72 yards

That is unbelievable. Here is the petition.

They’ve gotten about 75,000 signatures! If you check out the names, you might see “Walter Football.” As someone with a 35:1 ticket on the Eagles to win the Super Bowl, I don’t want Morelli officiating any Eagles games in the playoffs for sure!

So, what does this have to do with the Monday night game? Well, if you missed it, the officials called the Eagles for four penalties on the first four plays. One was obvious (12 men in the huddle) and another one was sort of blatant (Zach Ertz’s block in the back). However, Lane Johnson was flagged for a phantom hold, and I’m not sure about that offensive pass interference on Nelson Agholor.

Here’s my theory: I think that this was retribution for the petition. NFL officials are like frat brothers. They have each other’s backs. Ed Hochuli saw that Morelli was getting a ton of criticism from the fans, so I believe that he came into the Eagles-Redskins game set to call Philadelphia for a ton of penalties in the early stages of the evening to send a message.

3. I know that hearing about other people’s fantasy teams is boring, but I have to share this with you because it’s incredible. I was playing a guy in a league I’ve been in since 2007. I was up by a couple of points, heading into Sunday night. My opponent had Taylor Gabriel. When Gabriel caught a meaningless pass right before halftime, I lost. Or, that’s what I thought…

Remember the nonsensical jet sweep at the goal line? Well…

That’s right – I won my fantasy matchup because of that jet sweep! Now, before you point out that my luck has been better in fantasy compared to my picks, let me point you to my bench:

I have no idea how I’m 6-1 on the year with all of those injuries. I had trouble even fielding a full lineup this week!

CAROLINA OFFENSE: The Panthers have several significant injuries that they’re dealing with right now. Two happen to be on the offensive line. Ryan Kalil and Trai Turner were knocked out of last week’s game with neck and knee maladies, respectively. This was especially impactful because they happen two of the three viable starters the Panthers have on their offensive line. It doesn’t seem especially likely that they’ll play in this contest, meaning left guard Andrew Norwell will be the only solid starter available.

This is obviously bad news for the Panthers, as Turner’s backup will have to block Gerald McCoy, one of the top defensive linemen in the NFL. Robert Ayers also has a terrific matchup against incompetent left tackle Matt Kalil. The Buccaneers couldn’t generate much pressure against the Bills this past week, but I expect that to change in this game.

Cam Newton is struggling because of his inadequate protection, as he was responsible for a horrendous pick-six against the Bears. Newton could continue to force the issue versus the Buccaneers, who have their linebacking corps and secondary intact for just the third time this year.

TAMPA BAY OFFENSE: Carolina’s health issue on this side of the ball is to Luke Kuechly. The All-Pro linebacker is dealing with a concussion, and it’s unclear when he’ll be cleared because of his extensive history with brain injuries. His absence didn’t make a huge difference this past week, as Chicago’s pedestrian offense mustered only three points. Kuechly’s absence this Sunday, however, will be far more impactful, given the talent the Buccaneers have on offense.

If Kuechly is out, Jameis Winston will have tremendous success targeting his tight ends, both of whom performed well at Buffalo. The Bears couldn’t really take advantage of this liability, but the Eagles sure did the preceding Thursday night. Meanwhile, Mike Evans and DeSean Jackson shouldn’t have much of an issue getting open versus a secondary lacking in talent.

The one chance the Panthers have of slowing down the Buccaneers is putting tons of pressure on Winston, who isn’t protected very well. Aside from center Ali Marpet and right tackle Demar Dotson, Tampa Bay’s offensive line is really struggling this year. Julius Peppers should be able to beat left tackle Donovan Smith, while Kawann Short has a huge mismatch versus overpaid right guard J.R. Sweezy.

RECAP: The spread I made for this game, Buccaneers -2, matches the line currently posted. However, I did not factor in all of Carolina’s injuries into that number. If the Panthers are missing all three of Kuechly, Ryan Kalil and Turner, I may put a couple of units on Tampa Bay.

I’m going to list the Buccaneers for no units right now, but if the Panthers are missing those key players, I’ll bet on Tampa. Check back later or follow me @walterfootball for updates.

THURSDAY THOUGHTS: Luke Kuechly and Trai Turner are both practicing, which is not good news for the Buccaneers. Even worse, Brent Grimes may not play because of a shoulder injury. I’m close to changing my pick to the Panthers because of all these injuries.

SATURDAY NOTES: This was almost a pick change. The Panthers have gotten some great injury news with Luke Kuechly and Trai Turner being cleared to play in this game. The Buccaneers, conversely, will be without Brent Grimes. I said that injuries to prominent players could change my selection, and it almost did. However, with this number moving in Carolina’s favor, I think there’s still some value with the Buccaneers, whose backs are against the wall.

FINAL THOUGHTS: I’m still not going to bet either side, but I like the under. There are heavy winds projected in Tampa, which affects the passing game more than rain does.

The Psychology. Edge: None.
No edge found.

The Vegas. Edge: Buccaneers.

The Panthers are a public dog.

Percentage of money on Carolina: 70% (19,000 bets)

The Trends. Edge: Panthers.

History: Panthers have won 8 the last 12 meetings (Buccaneers won last 2).

Road Team is 78-47 ATS in Buccaneers games since 2009.

Cam Newton is 21-16 ATS off a loss as long as he’s not favored by 7+.

Ron Rivera is 6-2 ATS as an underdog after losing as a favorite.

Buccaneers are 20-44 ATS at home in the previous 64 instances.

Opening Line: Buccaneers -2.5.

Opening Total: 44.

Weather: Partly cloudy, 69 degrees. HEAVY WIND, 21 mph.

Week 8 NFL Pick: Buccaneers 23, Panthers 17
Buccaneers -1 (0 Units) — Incorrect; $0
Under 46 (0.5 Units) — Correct; +$50
Panthers 17, Buccaneers 3

San Francisco 49ers (0-7) at Philadelphia Eagles (6-1)
Line: Eagles by 13. Total: 44.
Las Vegas Hilton Advance Point Spread: Eagles -10.5.
Walt’s Calculated Line: Eagles -13.
Sunday, Oct 29, 1:00 PM
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The Game. Edge: Eagles.

As with the random NFL notes, I’m going to have all of my Random College Football Notes on one page as well. Oh, and you can find my College Football Picks here.

Random College Football Notes:

1. Several weeks ago, I complained about an ESPN announcing crew gushing all over Lamar Jackson. It sounded like they were splooging in their pants when praising him. This is what they sounded like:

“OMG OMG LAMAR JACKSON OMG OMG HEISMAN OMG OMG LAMAR JACKSON LOVE LAMAR JACKSONNN OMG OMG OMG LAMAR JACKSON GREATEST QB EVAR OMG OMG OMG OMG OMG OGMOGMGOMGO.”

I was frustrated about this because while Jackson displayed his talents in that game, he also showed his flaws. The ESPN color analyst this week was much more logical about Jackson, chiding him about a simple missed throw on a first down toward the end of the opening half:

“That’s inexplicable. You can’t have that. That’s a bad throw every quarterback needs to make.”

This is the type of analysis we need; not loser fan boys who soil their underpants when watching a quarterback. Jackson is a terrific talent, and he’ll probably be a top-10 pick in the 2018 NFL Draft (I have him right outside of it in my 2018 NFL Mock Draft.) However, he really needs to work on his ball placement. If he improves that aspect of his game, he’ll be the best quarterback to come out of the 2018 class.

2. There have been numerous homecoming games thus far this season, of course. The best homecoming game, apparently, is Baylor’s, as you can see in this tweet:

Ah, yes, the great Baylor homecoming. Up there with the Kentucky Derby, the Super Bowl, and New Year’s Eve at Times Square. It’s a tradition just as strong as those three iconic moments.

Seriously, how can anyone say that? I might as well tweet out the following when my birthday party starts: “It’s a tradition that’s as strong as anyone’s in the country.” #WaltsBirthdayParty. Let’s just ignore the fact that there were a ton of no-shows by some supposed friends this year, OK?

3. If you missed it, some Alabama fan flew a plane with this message:

If you can’t read that, it says: “BUTCH UR MOM STILL LOVES YUO.”

Naturally, because an Alabama fan wrote the message, there was a misspelling. Another Alabama fan had similar issues while pointing that out on Twitter:

Unless she really meant to say, “No isn’t that sweet” instead of “Now isn’t that sweet.” No, isn’t that funny that Alabama people can’t spell?

PHILADELPHIA OFFENSE: The Eagles suffered huge losses on both sides of the ball Monday night, as Jason Peters was ruled out for the year. Check out my Disaster Grades for Philadelphia’s injuries. The Eagles will have to move forward with Halapoulivaati Vaitai as the blind-side protector, which doesn’t seem like a good proposition. Vaitai isn’t very good, and he’ll be tasked with blocking the solid Arik Armstead in this contest. Meanwhile, DeForest Buckner, who is having an All-Pro-caliber year, will be difficult for the Eagles’ interior blockers to handle.

Despite this, however, Carson Wentz will be extremely difficult to stop. The 49ers have some of the worst cornerbacks in the NFL, so Alshon Jeffery, Nelson Agholor and Torrey Smith shouldn’t have much of an issue getting open. The 49ers have also struggled against some of the talented tight ends they’ve battled this year, and despite the projected return of Reuben Foster, I have to believe that Zach Ertz will have a big game, picking up where Jason Witten left off versus San Francisco last week.

The Eagles figure to run the ball effectively as well. The 49ers just surrendered 223 rushing yards to the Cowboys, and they’ve given up at least 97 yards on the ground in five of their seven games this year.

SAN FRANCISCO OFFENSE: The Eagles aren’t the only team in this game with offensive line injuries. Right tackle Trent Brown, who has been very stout this year, is in concussion protocol. Right guard Brandon Fusco, who has also been solid, is considered questionable with a bicep issue. Not having either blocker versus Philadelphia will be an enormous problem, considering that Brandon Graham and Fletcher Cox will be going against backup scrubs if both players are out.

Philadelphia has its own issues on this side of the ball, losing Jordan Hicks to an injury. The Redskins were able to get Chris Thompson into some nice matchups, as the Eagles blew some coverages as a result of Hicks being out of the game. I imagine Kyle Shanahan will attempt to do the same thing with Carlos Hyde and Matt Breida.

That said, I can’t see the 49ers maintaining much consistent offensive success. The blocking is projected to be too poor, so it’ll be difficult for C.J. Beathard to convert third downs that aren’t in short-yardage situations. He also won’t have support from his ground attack, as the Eagles are one of the top teams versus the run.

RECAP: This is the highest spread of the week, but I like the Eagles to cover. Philadelphia is just way too talented. San Francisco has played in some close games this year, but only when battling teams with stagnant offenses, or taking advantage of some garbage-time opportunities, like they did against the Rams when they were down 15 with six minutes remaining. We saw what happened to them against Dallas, and the Eagles should treat them similarly.

Also, the 49ers’ schedule needs to be factored in as well. Not only is this a 10 a.m. local start time for them, but this is their second trip to the East Coast in three weeks. Not only that, but it’s their fourth road game in five contests. It’s difficult to imagine them being competitive under these circumstances.

Ultimately, I’m going to pick the Eagles, but for no units. My concern is a late back-door cover of sorts on such a high spread, but this game could be out of reach by the fourth quarter quite easily.

THURSDAY THOUGHTS: Trent Brown and Brandon Fusco haven’t been practicing, which sounds disastrous against the Eagles’ pass rush. This line is too high, but if it keeps dropping, I might put a unit on Philadelphia.

SATURDAY NOTES: It sounds like the 49ers are going to be without Trent Brown. Brandon Fusco, meanwhile, will be a game-time decision. As I said Thursday, both players being ruled out would warrant a unit on the Eagles. Not being able to block Brandon Graham and Fletcher Cox would give San Francisco no hope of keeping this game close.

FINAL THOUGHTS: I was hoping this line would drop so I could bet the Eagles, but a lack of sharp action on the underdog has kept the spread at -13. Philadelphia has a major injury edge, as the 49ers won’t have their talented right tackle (Trent Brown) or their best defensive player (Reuben Foster).

The Psychology. Edge: Eagles.

This is San Francisco’s fourth road game in five weeks, and their second trip to the East Coast in three weeks.

The Vegas. Edge: None.
Equal action.

Percentage of money on Philadelphia: 57% (9,000 bets)

The Trends. Edge: 49ers.

Eagles are 25-36 ATS at home since 2010.

Opening Line: Eagles -13.

Opening Total: 47.5.

Weather: Rain, 66 degrees. Mild wind, 12 mph.

Week 8 NFL Pick: Eagles 38, 49ers 17
Eagles -13 (0 Units) — Correct; $0
Over 44 (0 Units) — Incorrect; $0
Eagles 33, 49ers 10

Oakland Raiders (3-3) at Buffalo Bills (4-2)
Line: Bills by 3. Total: 46.5.
Las Vegas Hilton Advance Point Spread: Bills -2.5.
Walt’s Calculated Line: Pick.
Sunday, Oct 29, 1:00 PM
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The Game. Edge: Raiders.

If you’ve followed this site for a while, you might remember that I like to respond to my spam mails. It all started six years ago, when a man named Jon Wire from the “United Bank of Africoan” promised me an ATM card of some sort, so I responded as a man named Mister Compassion Chuck Norris, who was raised by wolves. The following season, I received e-mails from Richard Held and Loon Bruce, who told me I won a Facebook Award, which comes with a “lump sum pay out of (750,000.00 GBP).” Pretending to be Matthew Millen Kim, I sent out my application and fake money.

I’ve been messing around with spammers ever since, pretending to be Aaron Hernandez, Tom Brady and Walter White. I’ll have new answers to Spam Mails here, so check them out if you want to see me screw with spammers!

OAKLAND OFFENSE: There was a ton of concern with Derek Carr entering Week 7. Carr was atrocious against the Chargers, looking extremely limited with his injured back. I didn’t think he’d play much better just four days later, but I was dead wrong. Carr didn’t look completely healthy, but he was so much more effective versus the Chiefs. With nine more days of rest, Carr should be back to 100 percent for this contest.

Carr has a tough matchup on paper; the Bills have maintained one of the top pass defenses in the NFL this year. Prior to Sunday’s game against the Buccaneers, they had surrendered just two passing touchdowns all year. However, they gave up three to Jameis Winston, and I think Carr could repeat what Winston was able to accomplish. Buffalo has some injury concerns in the secondary, as safety Jordan Poyer and cornerback E.J. Gaines are day-to-day with injuries. Both have been enjoying terrific seasons, so not having one of them would give Carr a big edge.

The Raiders will also be down a man, as Marshawn Lynch has been suspended. This will actually help Oakland, as Jalen Richard and DeAndre Washington are better suited for the offense. This situation actually reminds me of the Saints when they had Adrian Peterson. Lynch is actually slowing down the offense, so the Raiders will be better off without him.

BUFFALO OFFENSE: The Raiders, as we all know, struggle on this side of the ball. Their cornerbacks are poor, while their linebackers are atrocious. They really struggle against the pass, but this matchup seems feasible. The Bills can’t really air it out downfield because their receivers are terrible. In fact, according to metrics, Zay Jones has the worst catch rate of any receiver in the past 25 years! Deonte Thompson had a nice game this past Sunday, but he’s not a quality player, so I don’t trust him to repeat that.

Unfortunately for the Raiders, their linebackers are so bad that they’re still going to struggle to contain the Bills on this side of the ball. LeSean McCoy will be a nightmare for them as a receiver out of the backfield. Tight end Nick O’Leary should also have a decent performance, as all tight ends tend to do versus Oakland’s linebackers. Denver’s A.J. Derby made an acrobatic touchdown versus the Raiders earlier in the year, so if he could do that, O’Leary should thrive as well.

There are two areas on this side of the ball where Oakland has an advantage, however. Khalil Mack versus right tackle Jordan Mills is a huge mismatch, so Tyrod Taylor figures to be under heavy pressure, which could force some turnovers. Also, while McCoy will be a huge receiving threat, I don’t expect him to find much running room. Newly acquired linebacker NaVorro Bowman has helped Oakland’s run defense. The Raiders surrendered just 87 rushing yards on 20 carries to the Chiefs last Thursday night.

RECAP: I loved the Raiders at +3, which was the opening line. Unfortunately, this spread has fallen to +2.5 in most books, ruining some of the value.

I actually have Oakland listed as a one-point favorite. The Bills are a bit overrated, as their two big wins have been against the Broncos, who have capsized lately, and the Falcons, who didn’t have Julio Jones for half the game. Last week, they nearly lost to the Buccaneers, whom everyone seems to be criticizing.

The Raiders, with a healthy Carr, are better than the Buccaneers. They’ve also had extra rest. The Bills, meanwhile, have to prepare for a game on Thursday night, so they may not be completely focused for a team that currently has a losing record.

Despite the line dropping, I’m still going to bet the Raiders. This may have been a three- or four-unit selection at +3, but I’m going with Oakland for two units. The best number out there at the current moment is +3 -120 at BetUS. According to math, +3 -120 is about 0.8 percent better than +2.5 -105, the number at 5Dimes.

I would love it if the number went back up to +3, but I don’t see that happening, as both the public and sharps bet the Raiders down to +2.5.

THURSDAY THOUGHTS: The Bills had a skeleton crew at practice Thursday. Jordan Poyer and E.J. Gaines, two key members of the secondary, were both missing. The same goes for stud guard Richie Incognito and tight end Charles Clay. The latter was expected to miss this game, but Incognito was a surprise. With all the sharp money on the Raiders, I don’t think we’re going to see +3 -110. Maybe I’m wrong, but it doesn’t appear to be that way. With that in mind, I’m going to lock two units in on +3 -120 (BetUS). I might add a third during the weekend if all of those Buffalo players are out.

SATURDAY NOTES: Bills cornerback E.J. Gaines is out. Jordan Poyer is questionable, but hasn’t practiced all week. I stand by my Raiders pick, but it will remain at two units because the line has shifted to +2.5. Oakland will also be missing some starters in the secondary, including Karl Joseph, but I don’t think that means as much in this game because the Bills have nothing at receiver.

FINAL THOUGHTS: The sharps have bet the Raiders down to +2, so I’m glad I was able to lock this in at +3 -120. That was a good move, but as you’ll see later, I made a mistake with locking in a game too early.

The Psychology. Edge: Raiders.

The Bills are coming off a win and have to play on Thursday night against a divisional opponent.

The Vegas. Edge: Bills.

The public and sharps are on the Raiders.

Percentage of money on Oakland: 65% (17,000 bets)

The Trends. Edge: None.

Jack Del Rio is 4-1 ATS in 1 p.m. East Coast games with Raiders.

Raiders are 18-32 ATS after a win since 2009.

Opening Line: Bills -3.

Opening Total: 44.5.

Weather: Rain, 45 degrees. Light wind.

Week 8 NFL Pick: Raiders 24, Bills 23
Raiders +3 -120 (2 Units) — Incorrect; -$240
Over 46.5 (0 Units) — Correct; $0
Bills 34, Raiders 14

Indianapolis Colts (2-5) at Cincinnati Bengals (2-4)
Line: Bengals by 10.5. Total: 43.
Las Vegas Hilton Advance Point Spread: No Line (Luck).
Walt’s Calculated Line: Bengals -6.5.
Sunday, Oct 29, 1:00 PM
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The Game. Edge: Bengals.

Video of the Week: This is a very simple, short video that I had to watch like 10 times (thanks, Andrew A.):

It’s even better if you right-click twice on the video and loop it. I can’t wait until enough people see this and memes are made out of this guy.

CINCINNATI OFFENSE: The Bengals achieving just one first down in the second half during their loss to the Steelers was no fluke. Their offensive line was exposed, and Andy Dalton had absolutely no time to throw. I’ve harped about how bad Cincinnati’s blocking is; aside from left guard Clint Boling, the Bengals don’t have a viable starter up front.

Some may not think the Colts will be able to take advantage of this liability, but I believe they will be able to. Jabaal Sheard and Henry Anderson all have positive matchups, as does Barkevious Mingo, who will be replacing the injured John Simon. Mingo hasn’t been bad for the Colts this year, and he might have the easiest battle of his career against inept right tackle Jake Fisher. This means that while A.J. Green should be able to get open versus Indianapolis’ poor secondary, Dalton may not have enough to find him.

It would help Dalton if he could lean on a running game, but Joe Mixon hasn’t been able to find much running room behind his anemic front. The Colts can’t stop the pass at all, but they’re pretty good versus the run, thanks to Johnathan Hankins, so they should be able to slow down Mixon.

INDIANAPOLIS OFFENSE: The Colts posted a giant goose egg on the scoreboard last week because like Dalton, Jacoby Brissett had no protection. He took a whopping 10 sacks versus the Jaguars, which was absolutely ridiculous.

The Bengals bring tons of pressure, mainly from Geno Atkins and Carlos Dunlap. Both have terrific matchups, so they’ll hound Brissett in the backfield. Brissett will have to scramble or release short passes, which would be easier if Vontaze Burfict were rightfully suspended for what he did this past week. Alas, Roger Goodell has given up on suspending players unless he has no proof of their wrongdoing.

If Brissett somehow had enough time in the pocket, he could expose some of the Bengals’ flaws. They have a missing safety, and their cornerbacks, outside of William Jackson, haven’t been very good. T.Y. Hilton could have a rebound game, but Brissett will need enough time to find him downfield.

RECAP: I don’t get this spread at all. I think the Bengals should be -6, or -6.5. Something like that. But -10 (-10.5 at BetUS) is ridiculous!

Seriously, who are the Bengals to be favored by double digits? Excluding a game against the stupid Browns, and factoring in a pick-six against Green Bay, here are their point totals this year: 0, 9, 17, 20 and 14. Does that seem like a team that should be laying 10 or 10.5?

Furthermore, the Bengals could be flat following their loss to the Steelers. I’m not sure how focused they’ll be for the Colts, whom they just watched get shut out by the Jaguars. I expect a better effort from Indianapolis.

This is a three-unit wager for me. I don’t completely trust the Colts; otherwise, I’d be on them for at least five units. Still, Indianapolis seems like a decent bet. Yes, the Colts were just thrashed, but against competition similar to the Bengals (i.e. Titans, Cardinals) they’ve been competitive.

THURSDAY THOUGHTS: This spread has moved to 10.5 across the board, and I’m hoping it keeps rising. I’m surprised the sharps haven’t taken Indianapolis.

SATURDAY NOTES: No sharp movement on the Colts yet. Perhaps that’s because of Indianapolis’ injuries to John Simon and Rashaan Melvin, but I still think this line is way too high.

FINAL THOUGHTS: The Greek sportsbook tweeted that there was a sharp bet on the Bengals at -10, but there’s no pro money at this current number. I did hear something interesting, however, and that would be that home teams are 78-58 against the spread when Jerome Boger is the official.

The Psychology. Edge: Colts.

The Bengals are off a tough loss to the Steelers, and now they have to rebound as huge favorites. The Colts, meanwhile, will be trying to redeem themselves off the shutout.

The Vegas. Edge: None.
Equal action.

Percentage of money on Indianapolis: 56% (11,000 bets)

The Trends. Edge: Colts.

Underdogs are 18-8 ATS coming off a shutout home loss since 2002.

Bengals are 21-13 ATS at home since 2013.

Bengals are 8-12 ATS after playing the Steelers.

Opening Line: Bengals -10.

Opening Total: 41.

Weather: Dome.

Week 8 NFL Pick: Bengals 16, Colts 10
Colts +10.5 (3 Units) — Correct; +$300
Under 43 (0.5 Units) — Incorrect; -$55
Bengals 24, Colts 23

Los Angeles Chargers (3-4) at New England Patriots (5-2)
Line: Patriots by 7.5. Total: 48.
Las Vegas Hilton Advance Point Spread: Patriots -7.
Walt’s Calculated Line: Patriots -6.
Sunday, Oct 29, 1:00 PM
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The Game. Edge: Chargers.

Last year, on the Adventures of Tom Brady’s Haircuts, Tom Brady was elected as the President of the United States, as it was revealed that he was the only candidate running because both Donald Trump and Hillary Clinton were figments of his imagination. In doing so, Tom Brady saved his organization, the Two-Handed Gang, from the Latin Kings. Everything was going swimmingly for Brady while in the White House, until he received a telegram from Bill Belichick, requiring his presence in Foxboro…

To see the story behind this one, check out the new Adventures of Tom Brady’s Haircuts!

NEW ENGLAND OFFENSE: Tom Brady is probably the MVP right now, with Carson Wentz not too far behind him. However, Brady could have a difficult time navigating through the Chargers’ improved defense. A major reason for this is the pass protection. Left tackle Nate Solder is not healthy right now, while right tackle Marcus Cannon isn’t performing as well as he did last year. That’s terrible news, considering whom the Patriot tackles will be matched up against. Joey Bosa and Melvin Ingram are arguably the top edge-rushing duo in the NFL, and they’re going to give Solder and Cannon all sorts of problems.

The Chargers also have a talented duo of cornerbacks. Casey Hayward and Trevor Williams have been exceptional this year, and they should be able to lock down Brandin Cooks and Chris Hogan. The Chargers have been stout against tight ends as well – they limited Travis Kelce to just one catch in Week 3 – so while Rob Gronkowski will have some big catches, he may not be as dominant as usual.

The Patriots will have to run the ball very effectively to help ease the pressure off Brady. We just saw the Chargers clamp down on C.J. Anderson and the Broncos. However, prior to Week 6, the Chargers had surrendered at least 119 yards on the ground to every opponent they faced, so there’s no telling which run defense will show up.

SAN DIEGO OFFENSE: The Chargers should be able to attack the Patriots successfully despite some of the upgrades New England has made. The Patriots are suddenly better at cornerback, thanks to the promotion of special teams star Johnson Bademosi. However, they’re still very weak to pass-catching running backs and tight ends, thanks to a lackluster linebacking corps that features a banged-up Dont’a Hightower.

Two of Philip Rivers’ primary weapons are Melvin Gordon and Hunter Henry, so I expect him to use them to take advantage of New England’s linebackers. The Falcons were expected to do this, but Steve Sarkisian was too busy designing ineffective jet sweeps to help me win my fantasy matchups.

Also, it needs to be pointed out that while the Patriots have done enough things to improve their secondary, they still can’t generate much pressure on the quarterback. Deatrich Wise Jr. should be able to beat the Chargers’ right tackle, but that’s really the only edge New England has up front.

RECAP: This is one of my top plays this week. I’m betting the Chargers for five units.

This spread is too high, as the Patriots are still getting too much respect based on price memory. I made New England -6, but the line opened -7 and went up to -7.5. I think that’s crazy, so I love the Chargers at +7.5 (-105 at Bovada), since we’re going through two key numbers.

Besides, even if the Patriots jump out to a 10- or 14-point lead, can you tell me that you don’t expect Rivers to have a chance at a back-door touchdown? There’s a reason that Rivers is 13-4 against the spread in his career as an underdog of 6.5. He almost always keeps games close, and I don’t see why he wouldn’t do so again in this contest.

In summary, we’re getting more than a touchdown with a better defense and a quarterback who tends to keep games close versus an overrated team that has one victory of more than seven points all year. I’m actually going to lock in +7.5 -105. This spread could move up to +8, but I’d rather have +7.5 -105, anyway. Besides, I could see the sharps jumping in on the Chargers, and I’m comfortable with the current line.

THURSDAY THOUGHTS: Dont’a Hightower is out for the year, which is a big deal. I’m glad I locked in Chargers +7.5 -105, but +7.5 -110 is still available at Bovada. Considering the sharp money on the Chargers, we may not see +7.5 around for long.

SATURDAY NOTES: I’m surprised there hasn’t been sharp action on the Chargers, especially with Dont’a Hightower ruled out. Better yet for the Chargers, it looks like Corey Liuget will play. He’ll help put lots of pressure on Tom Brady.

FINAL THOUGHTS: The sharps are betting the Chargers, with New England down to -7 +100. This can’t be a surprise; this line is high, Philip Rivers tend to cover as a big dog, and the Patriots won’t have Dont’a Hightower.

The Psychology. Edge: None.
No edge found.

The Vegas. Edge: Chargers.
Slight lean on the Patriots.

Percentage of money on New England: 62% (23,000 bets)

The Trends. Edge: Chargers.

Philip Rivers is 13-4 ATS as an underdog of 6.5 or more.

Philip Rivers is 23-9 ATS as a road underdog of 3.5 or more.

Tom Brady is 212-67 as a starter (155-111 ATS).

Tom Brady is 30-34 ATS as a home favorite of -9 or more (19-27 ATS since November 2007). ???

Opening Line: Patriots -7.

Opening Total: 49.

Weather: Overcast, 63 degrees. Mild wind, 11 mph.

Week 8 NFL Pick: Patriots 23, Chargers 20
Chargers +7.5 -105 (5 Units) — Incorrect; -$525
Under 48 (0 Units) — Correct; $0
Patriots 21, Chargers 13

Week 8 NFL Picks – Late Games
Houston at Seattle, Dallas at Washington, Pittsburgh at Detroit, Denver at Kansas City

Prop/Teaser/Parlay Picks
A list of some of my favorite team/player prop picks this week
(Offense & defensive ROY picks to be counted whenever winners are announced.) Picks carried over on a week-to-week basis will be in black.

Prop/teaser/parlay picks posted in Week 8 NFL Picks – Late Games

NFL Picks - Nov. 20

2025 NFL Mock Draft - Nov. 20

NFL Power Rankings - Nov. 19

Fantasy Football Rankings - Sept. 4

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Note: For legality purposes, this Web site does not promote or advocate gambling. This is solely for entertainment purposes only.

Last Week's NFL Picks Against The Spread (Week 12, 2024): 11-3 (+$2,020)
Last Week's 2-3 Unit NFL Picks (Week 12, 2024): 3-1 (+$580)
Last Week's 4-5 Unit NFL Picks (Week 12, 2024): 3-0 (+$1,400)
Last Week Over-Under (Week 12, 2024): 6-8 ($0)
Last Week's Prop/ML/Teaser/Parlay Picks (Week 12, 2024): +$905

2024 NFL Picks of the Month: 1-3, 25.0% (-$1,365)

2024 Season NFL Picks Against The Spread: 89-82-6, 52.0% (-$2,545)
2024 Season 2-3 Unit NFL Picks: 22-26-1, 45.8% (-$600)
2024 Season 4-5 Unit NFL Picks: 18-17, 51.4% (-$155)
2024 Season Over-Under: 82-82-2, 50.0% (+$95)
2024 Season Prop/ML/Teaser/Parlay Picks: +$740

1999 Season NFL Picks Against The Spread: 27-41-3 (39.7%)
2000 Season NFL Picks Against The Spread: 128-123-8 (51.0%)
2001 Season NFL Picks Against The Spread: 127-122-7 (51.0%)
2002 Season NFL Picks Against The Spread: 123-136-7 (47.5%)
2003 Season NFL Picks Against The Spread: 146-126-8 (53.7%)
2004 Season NFL Picks Against The Spread: 157-123-8 (56.1%)
2005 Season NFL Picks Against The Spread: 156-126-11 (55.3%)
2006 Season NFL Picks Against The Spread: 151-135-9 (52.8%)
2007 Season NFL Picks Against The Spread: 162-135-10, 54.5% (+$3,585)
2008 Season NFL Picks Against The Spread: 148-140-7, 51.4% (+$6,105)
2009 Season NFL Picks Against The Spread: 151-124-9, 54.9% (+$4,235)
2010 Season NFL Picks Against The Spread: 144-131-8, 52.4% (+$5,880)
2011 Season NFL Picks Against The Spread: 137-133-12, 50.7% (-$1,335)
2012 Season NFL Picks Against The Spread: 130-145-8, 47.3% (-$7,445)
2013 Season NFL Picks Against The Spread: 144-131-8, 52.4% (+$7,825)
2014 Season NFL Picks Against The Spread: 143-133-7, 51.8% (-$1,885)
2015 Season NFL Picks Against The Spread: 134-138-12, 49.3% (-$3,215)
2016 Season NFL Picks Against The Spread: 148-127-10, 53.8% (+$780)
2017 Season NFL Picks Against The Spread: 137-140-8, 49.5% (-$4,300)
2018 Season NFL Picks Against The Spread: 140-134-14, 51.3% (+$845)
2019 Season NFL Picks Against The Spread: 149-128-9, 53.6% (+$1,200)
2020 Season NFL Picks Against The Spread: 138-124-7, 52.7% (+$9,350)
2021 Season NFL Picks Against The Spread: 153-141-2, 51.9% (+$210)
2022 Season NFL Picks Against The Spread: 154-134-8, 53.5% (+$9,860)
2023 Season NFL Picks Against The Spread: 144-141-7, 50.5% (-$7,285)

2002 Season 2-3 Unit NFL Picks: 41-49-2 (45.6%)
2003 Season 2-3 Unit NFL Picks: 52-51-2 (50.5%)
2004 Season 2-3 Unit NFL Picks: 65-44-3 (59.6%)
2005 Season 2-3 Unit NFL Picks: 77-61-1 (55.8%)
2006 Season 2-3 Unit NFL Picks: 65-61-4 (51.6%)
2007 Season 2-3 Unit NFL Picks: 83-59-5, 58.5% (+$4,110)
2008 Season 2-3 Unit NFL Picks: 44-57-3, 43.6% (-$3,510)
2009 Season 2-3 Unit NFL Picks: 49-35-3, 58.3% (+$2,260)
2010 Season 2-3 Unit NFL Picks: 51-38-4, 57.3% (+$3,180)
2011 Season 2-3 Unit NFL Picks: 44-51-3, 46.3% (-$2,715)
2012 Season 2-3 Unit NFL Picks: 45-50-2, 47.4% (-$2,130)
2013 Season 2-3 Unit NFL Picks: 38-42, 47.5% (-$2,890)
2015 Season 2-3 Unit NFL Picks: 47-44-1, 51.6% (-$820)
2016 Season 2-3 Unit NFL Picks: 42-35-3, 54.5% (+$475)
2017 Season 2-3 Unit NFL Picks: 32-40-3, 43.8% (-$2,395)
2018 Season 2-3 Unit NFL Picks: 52-41-2, 55.9% (+$2,670)
2019 Season 2-3 Unit NFL Picks: 44-36-2, 55.0% (+$655)
2020 Season 2-3 Unit NFL Picks: 47-43-3, 52.2% (-$1,965)
2021 Season 2-3 Unit NFL Picks: 50-50, 50.0% (-$1,570)
2022 Season 2-3 Unit NFL Picks: 56-44-2, 56.0% (+$1,860)
2023 Season 2-3 Unit NFL Picks: 44-40-3, 52.4% (+$285)

2002 Season 4-5 Unit NFL Picks: 11-12 (47.8%)
2003 Season 4-5 Unit NFL Picks: 16-13-1 (55.2%)
2004 Season 4-5 Unit NFL Picks: 18-11 (62.1%)
2005 Season 4-5 Unit NFL Picks: 25-22-1 (53.2%)
2006 Season 4-5 Unit NFL Picks: 21-29-1 (42.0%)
2007 Season 4-5 Unit NFL Picks: 35-30-2, 53.8% (+$420)
2008 Season 4-5 Unit NFL Picks: 39-26-2, 60.0% (+$4,055)
2009 Season 4-5 Unit NFL Picks: 29-26, 52.7% (+$330)
2010 Season 4-5 Unit NFL Picks: 32-22, 59.3% (+$4,790)
2011 Season 4-5 Unit NFL Picks: 14-14, 50.0% (-$1,260)
2012 Season 4-5 Unit NFL Picks: 14-21, 40.0% (-$3,650)
2013 Season 4-5 Unit NFL Picks: 17-9-3, 65.4% (+$2,970)
2015 Season 4-5 Unit NFL Picks: 17-16-2, 51.5% (-$1,120)
2016 Season 4-5 Unit NFL Picks: 21-22-5, 48.8% (-$1,465)
2017 Season 4-5 Unit NFL Picks: 20-22-1, 47.6% (-$1,595)
2018 Season 4-5 Unit NFL Picks: 27-32-1, 45.8% (-$4,735)
2019 Season 4-5 Unit NFL Picks: 37-27-2, 57.8% (+$2,185)
2020 Season 4-5 Unit NFL Picks: 37-22-1, 62.7% (+$5,515)
2021 Season 4-5 Unit NFL Picks: 32-32-1, 50.0% (-$725)
2022 Season 4-5 Unit NFL Picks: 41-30-1, 57.8% (+$3,725)
2023 Season 4-5 Unit NFL Picks: 32-27-1, 54.2% (-$1,310)

2001 Season Over-Under: 3-2 (60.0%)
2002 Season Over-Under: 121-91-3 (57.1%)
2003 Season Over-Under: 126-132-2 (48.8%)
2004 Season Over-Under: 139-124-4 (52.9%)
2005 Season Over-Under: 117-145-4 (44.7%)
2006 Season Over-Under: 129-132-5 (49.4%)
2007 Season Over-Under: 136-145-3, 48.4% (-$1,900)
2008 Season Over-Under: 137-125-6, 52.3% (+$860)
2009 Season Over-Under: 128-135-4, 48.7% (-$3,195)
2010 Season Over-Under: 128-135-5, 48.7% (-$5)
2011 Season Over-Under: 131-131-5, 50.0% (+$135)
2012 Season Over-Under: 125-121-5, 50.8% (+$30)
2013 Season Over-Under: 132-130-5, 50.4% (-$340)
2015 Season Over-Under: 143-119-5, 54.6% ($0)
2016 Season Over-Under: 123-141-1, 46.6% (+$95)
2017 Season Over-Under: 136-139-2, 49.5% (+$640)
2018 Season Over-Under: 118-128-3, 48.0% (-$225)
2019 Season Over-Under: 126-133-4, 48.6% (-$50)
2020 Season Over-Under: 141-122-6, 53.6% ($0)
2021 Season Over-Under: 132-151-3, 46.6% ($0)
2022 Season Over-Under: 133-149-2, 47.2% (-$225)
2023 Season Over-Under: 145-135-3, 51.8% (+$200)

2007 Season Prop/ML/Teaser/Parlay Picks: +$1,035
2008 Season Prop/ML/Teaser/Parlay Picks: +$1,775
2009 Season Prop/ML/Teaser/Parlay Picks: +$865
2010 Season Prop/ML/Teaser/Parlay Picks: -$200
2011 Season Prop/ML/Teaser/Parlay Picks: +$590
2012 Season Prop/ML/Teaser/Parlay Picks: -$1,685
2013 Season Prop/ML/Teaser/Parlay Picks: +$2,245
2015 Season Prop/ML/Teaser/Parlay Picks: -$855
2016 Season Prop/ML/Teaser/Parlay Picks: -$275
2017 Season Prop/ML/Teaser/Parlay Picks: -$510
2018 Season Prop/ML/Teaser/Parlay Picks: +$1,495
2019 Season Prop/ML/Teaser/Parlay Picks: -$1,715
2020 Season Prop/ML/Teaser/Parlay Picks: +$4,975
2021 Season Prop/ML/Teaser/Parlay Picks: +$3,455
2022 Season Prop/ML/Teaser/Parlay Picks: +$5,720
2023 Season Prop/ML/Teaser/Parlay Picks: -$2,565

2006 NFL Picks of the Month: 3-3 (50%)
2007 NFL Picks of the Month: 3-3, 50.0% (-$400)
2008 NFL Picks of the Month: 6-1, 85.7% (+$3,720)
2009 NFL Picks of the Month: 3-2, 60.0% (+$640)
2010 NFL Picks of the Month: 2-4, 33.3% (-$1,810)
2011 NFL Picks of the Month: 5-2, 71.4% (+$1,870)
2012 NFL Picks of the Month: 3-2, 60.0% (+$560)
2013 NFL Picks of the Month: 6-0, 100% (+$3,900)
2014 NFL Picks of the Month: 2-4, 33.3% (-$1,350)
2015 NFL Picks of the Month: 3-3, 50.0% (-$100)
2016 NFL Picks of the Month: 5-1, 83.3% (+$2,780)
2017 NFL Picks of the Month: 4-2, 66.7% (+$1,040)
2018 NFL Picks of the Month: 4-3, 57.1% (-$640)
2019 NFL Picks of the Month: 3-3-1, 50.0% (-$625)
2020 NFL Picks of the Month: 3-2, 60.0% (+$665)
2021 NFL Picks of the Month: 2-3, 40.0% (-$920)
2022 NFL Picks of the Month: 3-4, 42.9% (-$1,615)
2023 NFL Picks of the Month: 2-5, 28.6% (-$2,550)

Career NFL Picks Against The Spread: 3,510-3,234-202, 52.0% (+$19,125)
Career 2-3 Unit NFL Picks: 1,129-1,011-57 (52.8%)
Career 4-5 Unit NFL Picks: 571-502-25 (53.2%)
Career Over-Under: 2,941-2,916-76 (50.2%)
Career Second-Half NFL Picks: 23-16-1 (59.0%)
Career NFL Picks of the Month: 47-37-1 (56.0%)

My Team-by-Team ATS Record
This section shows how well I do when picking each team this year. The purpose is to see how well I read each team. Pushes are not displayed. Winning/losing streak in parentheses.

Cowboys: 6-3	Bears: 5-5	Bucs: 6-4	49ers: 6-4
Eagles: 5-5	Lions: 9-1	Falcons: 6-5	Cardinals: 8-2
Giants: 3-6	Packers: 6-3	Panthers: 4-6	Rams: 5-5
Redskins: 5-5	Vikings: 4-6	Saints: 5-6	Seahawks: 6-3

Bills: 4-7	Bengals: 2-9	Colts: 6-5	Broncos: 7-4
Dolphins: 4-6	Browns: 3-7	Jaguars: 3-7	Chargers: 6-3
Jets: 6-5	Ravens: 5-5	Texans: 5-6	Chiefs: 4-5
Patriots: 6-3	Steelers: 4-6	Titans: 6-3	Raiders: 5-5

Divisional: 21-23 (2011-23: 608-561)	2x Game Edge: 18-14 (2011-23: 401-387)	2x Motivation Edge: 31-25 (2011-23: 510-441)	2x Spread Edge: 21-30 (2011-23: 239-211)
2x Vegas Edge: 33-47 (2011-23: 448-446)	2x Trend Edge: 12-8 (2011-23: 321-293)	Double Edge: 13-16 (2011-23: 207-185)	Triple Edge: 4-8 (2011-23: 33-37)