Fantasy Football: The Things I Learned – Week 7, 2017

By Chet Gresham – @ChetGresham
Follow @walterfootball for updates.

Below, check out my fantasy-centered recaps of key players from this week’s contests. For instance, did a player come back to earth after an aberrant breakout, or were they simply affected by something like game flow?

Bills 30, Buccaneers 27
Jameis Winston completed 32-of-44 passes for 382 yards, three touchdowns and one interception, which was a great fantasy day, especially when you factor in that the Bills had allowed just two receiving touchdowns all season! Winston is a hard nut to crack. He has good upside each week, but is so inconsistent that it’s tough starting him in matchups like this one.

O.J. Howard was the big fantasy winner from Tampa Bay, as he caught all six of his targets for 98 yards and two touchdowns. Howard is going to be good, but the Bills didn’t know he was on the field, as they left him wide open on a number of occasions. He might be a popular pick up off the waiver wire, but he was still out-targeted by Cameron Brate and will remain down the pecking order for now.

LeSean McCoy finally broke out this week, as he rushed 23 times for 93 yards and two touchdowns, plus added 31 yards through the air on five receptions. He hadn’t scored a touchdown all season, so this game was coming. McCoy has a good schedule remaining and should be able to help your team into the playoffs this season if he can stay healthy.

Recently signed wide receiver Deonte Thompson looked good for the Bills, as he caught all four of his targets for 107 yards. The Bucs’ pass defense was a big help there of course, but on a team lacking wide receivers, any spark could turn into a smoldering ember or something. Thompson is a deep threat and will be boom or bust, but he’s worth an add in deeper leagues.

Bears 17, Panthers 3
Cam Newton was off-target and harassed much of this game, again giving fantasy footballers concern when playing a quarterback against the Chicago defense. He completed 21-of-34 passes for 211 yards and two interceptions, plus a lost fumble, even though the fumble was actually on Curtis Samuel. Newton is who he is, and consistency doesn’t seem like it’s his thing. He’ll need good matchups for us to feel safe playing him again.

Mitchell Trubisky completed just 4-of-7 passes for 107 yards. With the Bears scoring two defensive touchdowns, John Fox took the ball out of Trubisky’s hands. Jordan Howard did get 21 rushing attempts, but could only muster 65 yards, while Tarik Cohen put up a big chunk of the offensive yards on one 70-yard reception. This offense has gone cave man.

Titans 12, Browns 9
The Browns have gone through more quarterbacks in the last two games than the Packers did in like, you know, a lot of games. This week, DeShone Kizer got the call again and was taken out after his second interceptions for Cody Kessler, who looked ok, but not good, just not turning the ball over non-stop. So, Kessler might get the start next week, which I guess means if you are in a deep-2QB league, he’s worth grabbing, but he does take on the Vikings in London if he gets the nod.

Duke Johnson was again one of the few players for Cleveland who looks like an NFL-caliber player right now. He didn’t do much, mind you, but he did catch 6-of-7 targets for 45 yards with seven carries for 26 yards. Johnson should continue to be useful in PPR leagues, but he also doesn’t have much upside in this offense.

Marcus Mariota hasn’t taken that next step as a quarterback just yet, and that would be the ability to beat down bad pass defenses like the Browns. He completed 21-of-34 passes for 203 yards with no touchdowns or turnovers. His hamstring, of course, could still be bothering him, but against this defense, a blind snail could toss 300 yards and a couple touchdowns.

DeMarco Murray got a limited practice in on Friday and then led the backfield in work on Sunday. That happened a couple weeks ago, and we need to learn that as long as Murray is suiting up, bench Derrick Henry. Murray rushed 18 times for 59 yards and caught three passes for 17 yards, while Henry rushed 13 times for 13 yards and caught two passes for 11 yards. The Titans get a bye next week, so expect Murray to be healthier and to continue leading the way for the time being.

Delanie Walker caught 7-of-10 targets for 63 yards, but had many chances for touchdowns that both he and Mariota helped sabotage. Walker also hurt his ankle and was seen with crutches after the game. Thankfully, the Titans have a bye, but we’ll need to learn more about his status moving forward.

Eric Decker caught zero passes and has been a huge flop this season, and with Corey Davis returning sooner than later, Decker isn’t worth holding onto anymore if you haven’t tossed him over the bow already.

Saints 26, Packers 17
Those of you with Jordy Nelson, DaVante Adams and to a lesser extent, Randall Cobb, Martellus Bennett and Ty Montgomery, just had their worst fears realized when Brett Hundley completed just 12-of-25 passes for 87 yards, zero touchdowns and an interception. He was able to rush three times for 44 yards and a touchdown, but that isn’t helping Green Bay’s receivers anytime soon.

The only Packer player to do anything of note in fantasy was Aaron Jones, who looked like the no-doubt lead back this week, as he rushed 17 times for 131 yards and a touchdown, while also adding three receptions for seven yards. According to PFF, he had 44 snaps to Ty Montgomery’s seven. This is Jones’ backfield now.

Drew Brees got off to a bad start with two first-half interceptions and didn’t show a lot of accuracy on his deep passes. This has happened to him before in open-air stadiums, and even though his age will catch up to him at some point, I’m not going to worry too much. He did end up throwing a touchdown and 300-plus yards, so was able to save his fantasy day.

Mark Ingram and Alvin Kamara rotated in and out as the lead tailback, but Ingram continued to see the bulk of the ground work, as he rushed 22 times for 105 yards and a touchdown, plus caught four passes for five yards, while Kamara ran nine times for 57 yards and caught five passes for 50 more yards. This appears to be the split Sean Payton is looking for and will likely hover around moving forward, which makes both backs strong plays moving forward.

Jaguars 27, Colts 0
Jacoby Brissett was sacked 10 times in this game, which led to a lot of nothing on offense this week for the Colts. The only fantasy news we can actually use is the fact that Marlon Mack was a bit of a spark for his team, rushing five times for 26 yards and catching 4-of-6 targets for 40 yards. This is in contrast to Frank Gore, who saw no targets and rushed nine times for 34 yards. The Colts are in last place in their division and Andrew Luck had a setback. It would seem insane not to see what Mack can do as the lead back going forward in what looks to be a lost season.

Blake Bortles completed 18-of-26 passes for 330 yards and a touchdown, which says a little something about the Colts’ pass defense. But Bortles did look good, and we saw him tear apart the Ravens’ defense in London. The Jaguars will continue to run the ball and play good defense, but Bortles does have these games in his realm of ability.

With Leonard Fournette out this week, Chris Ivory got the start and a goal-line touchdown, but was outplayed by T.J. Yeldon, who ran nine times for 122 yards and added two receptions for 15 yards, while Ivory rushed 17 times for 47 yards and had no targets, after seeing 10 targets the week before! After the bye next week, Fournette should be ready to go, and Ivory likely lost some backup work to Yeldon.

Rams 33, Cardinals 0
Carson Palmer suffered a broken arm in the second quarter and will miss eight weeks, which means he needs to be dropped from your fantasy teams posthaste. This could be the end for Palmer, and it’s surely the end of fantasy production in Arizona, as Drew Stanton took over and was awful, completing just 5-of-14 passes for 62 yards and a horrid interception. We must downgrade all Cardinals receivers going forward.

Adrian Peterson had his day in the sun last week, but this week, he had his day in London, which was dark and gloomy to say the least. He rushed 11 times for 21 yards and caught 1-of-4 passes for 12 yards, including a couple drops. He should get plenty of chances with Stanton at the helm, but will see stacked boxes more often than not, and I don’t think this version of Peterson can overcome those kind of fronts.

It was good to see Todd Gurley getting plenty of targets this week, after seeing a lull over the last two weeks. He had eight targets and caught four for 48 yards, while doing his usual damage on the ground, as he rushed 22 times for 106 yards and a touchdown. These are the kinds of workloads we’ve come to expect from “the Toddfather.”

Jared Goff played well, but did throw an interception in Arizona territory. Overall, he looked good, but with Gurley and the defense doing a lot of the work, Goff’s numbers never had a great chance of getting fantastic.

Sammy Watkins had his best game in a while, as he caught 3-of-5 targets for 42 yards. That’s worse than Cooper Kupp and Robert Woods did, but it’s much better than Watkins has done of late. Right now, there isn’t a strong No. 1 receiver for the Rams, so the ball is getting spread around too much to feel confident about one receiver. Woods has been the most consistent of late, but he can’t find the end zone, so for now, we’ll just have to look at matchups and hope we can pick the right guy.

Dolphins 31, Jets 28
Josh McCown completed 17-of-27 passes for 209 yards, three touchdowns and one interception. He also added a one-yard touchdown run to give himself a great fantasy day. In real life football, he probably lost the game for his team with a late interception, but thankfully we don’t play real life football! I mean, we would all die instantaneously.

Bilal Powell and Matt Forte split work fairly evenly and cut into each other’s upsides. Both have some flex appeal, as they are both playing well at the moment, but the volume isn’t there.

Jay Cutler took a big hit early in the third quarter and was ruled out quickly. He appears to have fractured his ribs and will likely be out 2-3 weeks. Matt Moore came in for him and led the team to a victory on 13-of-21 passing for 188 yards, two touchdowns and one interception. He looked bad off the bench, but found his groove as the game went on. Moore will get the start this Thursday against the Ravens, where he will likely make his bid for the starting job.

Jarvis Landry caught a touchdown, giving him one in each of his last three games, which is amazing for Landry, but Kenny Stills was the fantasy stud this week, as he caught 6-of-9 targets for 85 yards and two touchdowns. With DeVante Parker sidelined over the last two games, Stills has three touchdowns. Parker seems like he is close to returning, but the Dolphins do have a quick turnaround for Thursday night.

Vikings 24, Ravens 16
Joe Flacco cannot get this Baltimore offense moving. He did manage to not turn the ball over for only the second time this season, but also fumbled three times, amazingly not losing any. Flacco now has yet to pass for over 235 yards this season, and his 186 yards this week was only his fourth-lowest total this year. Or is that fourth highest? Either way, it ain’t good.

Not one Ravens offensive player topped 50 yards this week, and the one who hit 49 yards was Javorius Allen, who rushed six times for 20 yards and caught 8-of-11 targets for 29 yards. When you average 3.6 yard per reception, you know your offense is stuck in the mud.

Just when you think Jerick McKinnon is the running back to play in Minnesota, Latavius Murray rushes 18 times for 113 yards and a touchdown. Murray was running well and Case Keenum was not passing well, so this worked out for the Vikings, but not so well for McKinnon backers. McKinnon did see enough work to put up good numbers, but just didn’t have that breakaway play like the last two weeks. He rushed 14 times for 47 yards and caught all three of his targets for 10 yards. In closer games or if the Vikings are trailing, McKinnon’s usage in the passing game is enough to push him up your rankings, but this was Murray’s day.

Cowboys 40, 49ers 10
The 49ers were beat to a pulp both on offense and defense this week, as rookie quarterback C.J. Beathard was sacked five times and the Cowboys’ offense rolled the San Francisco defense up and back, and then back up and all around the areas which were rollable. Beathard looked okay, but it was a rookie performance against a poor Dallas defense, as he completed 22-of-38 passes for 235 yards, no touchdowns or interceptions, although he did have two fumbles. Beathard did enough to keep the job, but he’ll need to do more if the 49ers’ offensive players are to be useful in fantasy.

Carlos Hyde looked good and healthy, as he rushed 14 times for 68 yards and caught four passes for 20 yards. In a blowout, it was nice that he got the amount of rushing attempts he did. And Matt Breida only touched the ball three times. I guess the two aren’t as interchangeable as coach Shanahan thought.

Ezekiel Elliott was a monster this week. The 49ers had absolutely no answer for him, as he rushed 26 times for 147 yards and two touchdowns, adding on one reception for a 72-yard touchdown, giving him three touchdowns and 219 total yards. If you play in a total points league instead of head-to-head, that game will make up for a couple that he’s suspended during.

Dak Prescott was the other big fantasy winner this week for Dallas, as he threw three touchdowns and ran another in for himself. He’s now thrown multiple touchdowns in his last five games, including three each in his last three, while adding three rushing touchdowns in his last four. If/when Elliott gets suspended, we could see this team go in a few different ways, but I doubt Prescott will let the Cowboys fall too far and his numbers could increase.

Seahawks 24, Giants 7
The Giants have little on offense with Odell Beckham Jr. done for the season, and it showed as Eli Manning barely mustered 134 passing yards on 39 attempts. The only bright spot for the Giants continues to be Evan Engram, who caught 6-of-12 targets for 60 yards and a touchdown. They moved him around, and Manning targeted him at will. Sterling Shepard will be back soon, but Engram is likely going to put up better fantasy points, as Shepard will see the opposition’s top cornerback.

Russell Wilson has been a roller-coaster fantasy ride, as he has fantasy totals from Week 1 on of, 8.3, 15.3, 33.5, 27.6, 11.5 and 26.4 this week against the Giants. It was good to see this game on the road against a better defense than the ones he scorched earlier, Tennessee and Indianapolis. On the day, he completed 27-of-39 passes for 334 yards and three touchdowns, plus added 10 yards on two carries. He also got his best receiver involved, as Doug Baldwin had a nice bounce-back game, catching 9-of-12 targets for 92 yards and a touchdown.

The running back committee remained a split backfield between Thomas Rawls and Eddie Lacy, with neither doing much with 12 touches each. Unless one back asserts himself, there’s not much fantasy value there.

Steelers 29, Bengals 14
Andy Dalton started off strong with two first-half touchdown passes, but he only was able to get one first down in the second half, as he finished the day with 140 yards, two touchdowns and two interceptions on 17-of-30 passing.

Joe Mixon had a decent start to the day, rushing seven times for 48 yards and catching all three of his targets for 40 yards, but the Bengals got backed up quickly in the second half due to the Steelers’ pass rush, and the they could not find the running game. Mixon did let it be known that he should have seen more work, but as he’s not a veteran, I doubt he gets the squeaky-wheel treatment next week against the Colts.

Le’Veon Bell was once again the workhorse for the Steelers. He was also the plow and the field, if we’re going to drag this metaphor out, because he was once again used in a way that will make it difficult for him to stay upright by Week 16. He now has 169 rushing attempts and 33 receptions through six games, which is 28.8 touches per game. And in the last two games, he’s averaging 36.5 touches per game. It isn’t sustainable.

This game was finished off in the second half with defense and Bell running the ball, so Ben Roethlisberger only threw the ball 24 times with 14 completions. He did have one of his better games, as he totaled 224 yards and two touchdowns, but there just wasn’t enough passing to push the Pittsburgh receivers into fantasy bliss. Antonio Brown did find the end zone and caught four passes for 65 yards, but overall it was a down game for passing stats.

Patriots 23, Falcons 7
I can’t tell you what has happened to this Atlanta offense, but it sure looks like the play calling is a big reason. The loss of Kyle Shanahan and the addition of Steve Sarkasian has been a net negative so far. Matt Ryan and company were able to put some garbage-time stats up, but this was never a game. The Patriots had given up 300 or more passing yards to every quarterback they had faced this season until this week. Matt Ryan threw for 233 yards and one touchdown. Maybe we can blame the fog, but the Patriots didn’t seem to mind.

The Falcons did make more of an effort to get Julio Jones the ball. He led the team with 13 targets, catching nine for 99 yards and a touchdown. The touchdown came from one-yard out, and Jones showed his Dez Bryant-like ability, as he ripped the ball out of Malcolm Butler’s grasp. Jones should see more red-zone targets moving forward.

Tom Brady was efficient, completing 21-of-29 passes for 249 yards and two touchdowns. The Falcons didn’t put up much of a fight this week, so Brady did all he needed early.

Probably the biggest news was Dion Lewis taking over the lead-back role, with 14 touches for 82 yards to Mike Gillislee’s eight touches for 31 yards. Rex Burkhead saw seven touches for 42 yards, and James White had nine touches for 47 yards and a touchdown. That’s a lot of mouths to feed in New England, but it does look like Lewis has taken over Gillislee’s early-down/goal-line role. I think Gillislee can be dropped in most leagues.

For more thoughts, check out Walt’s updated NFL Power Rankings, which will be posted Tuesday morning.

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