Fantasy Football: The Things I Learned – Week 3, 2017

By Chet Gresham – @ChetGresham
Follow @walterfootball for updates.

Below, check out my fantasy-centered recaps of key players from this week’s contests. For instance, did a player come back to earth after an aberrant breakout, or were they simply affected by something like game flow?

Jaguars 44, Ravens 7
Trying to find any fantasy silver lining for the Ravens in this game might be futile. Ben Watson caught a touchdown pass and Alex Collins rushed nine times for 82 yards, but that all developed after Baltimore had been thoroughly destroyed.

Collins is just another name to add to an already crowded backfield, and despite his strong numbers, he is still just part of a three-headed committee at best. I like him and think he can be a contributor, but will need things to break his way to see enough looks for fantasy relevance.

I won’t get too deep into Joe Flacco’s game so as to not cover myself in his stench, but he completed 8-of-18 passes for 28 yards and two interceptions. He’s not quite this bad, so there’s a chance he’s playing with an injury, but there’s no upgrade on the bench.

Blake Bortles completed 20-of-31 passes for 244 yards and four touchdowns. Now, if this game had been against the Saints, it would have been shocking, but not as much as it was coming against the Ravens, who came into this game with the No. 1 defense according to DVOA. Will Bortles replicate this game this season? I doubt it, but I think we can feel better about quarterbacks facing the Ravens now.

I guess I have to talk about Marcedes Lewis here, since he caught three touchdowns on five targets, but unless he’s become a different player over the last week than he’s been his whole career, I’m going to mark this one down as luck.

Bills 26, Broncos 16
After throwing four touchdowns last week against the Cowboys, Trevor Siemian threw zero touchdowns and two interceptions this week in Buffalo. It was a huge step backward, but one we can’t be overly surprised by, as Siemian is likely an average quarterback who will have trouble under adversity, like he did on Sunday.

Probably the biggest fantasy news in this one was an even split in work between C.J. Anderson and Jamaal Charles, with Charles putting up better numbers. Anderson had 10 touches for 43 yards, and Charles finished with 10 touches for 57 yards and a touchdown. Anderson should remain the lead back, but Charles isn’t going away as long as he’s healthy.

Tyrod Taylor had an efficient day, completing 20-of-26 passes for 213 yards, two touchdowns and no interceptions. On a team with more play-makers, Taylor would likely be a QB1, but as it is, the Bills will continue to use LeSean McCoy and Mike Tolbert extensively, which is going to hurt Taylor’s upside.

Charles Clay caught his second touchdown of the season and has been the only somewhat-consistent receiver on the Bills. Jordan Matthews continues to show flashes, but as long as games are close, I doubt we see many 30-plus passing-attempt games from Taylor.

LeSean McCoy was shut down by Denver’s defense, much like Melvin Ingram and Ezekiel Elliott before him, so I’m not going to worry about him at all. As long as McCoy’s healthy, he’s going to be fine, especially in PPR leagues, where he had an okay game this week due to seven receptions for 48 yards.

Bears 23, Steelers 17
Le’Veon Bell still hasn’t dominated, but he did score a touchdown and caught 6-of-7 targets in this one, totaling 98 yards. For the mere mortal running backs, that would be a big game.

Martavis Bryant saw eight targets, but only came down with two for 30 yards. He just missed a bomb from Roethlisberger to start the game, so this is where the “boom or bust” designation comes for Bryant. You just have to continue throwing him out there, because he is going to have some huge games this year.

Jordan Howard is alive and well in Chicago. This game was set up for the Steelers to take the lead and push the Bears to throw the ball, which would mean 50 targets for Tarik Cohen, but instead, the Bears got out to an early lead and Howard was able to continue getting carries, and this week, he was running over and through people on his way to a huge game. He still will have trouble when teams get on top of the Bears early, but he’s still the no-doubt lead back and showed us that he’s got plenty in the tank.

Mike Glennon only completed two passes to wide receivers and one to a tight end, while the rest went to running backs. He’s going to check down as long as the game is within reach, so there’s really not much upside in anyone not named Cohen or Howard for the Bears in fantasy.

Falcons 30, Lions 26
I expected a bit more from Matthew Stafford in this game, especially when he throws the ball 45 times, but the Falcons’ defense can be stingy at times and he did have a game-winning touchdown overturned, despite inconclusive evidence. He’s done enough this season for me to stick with him as a good fantasy play this season.

Eric Ebron had a couple major drops in this game, which was disconcerting, as I have him on my fantasy team! I doubt the Lions go away from him due to his poor play this week, but the drops have been a problem in the past, so he’ll need to win back some trust.

Ameer Abdullah totaled 86 yards on 17 touches this week, but was again unable to find the end zone. He has yet to show the electric stuff he’ll need to put up good numbers in this offense, and unless Theo Riddick goes down, I doubt Abdullah will get enough work to be a plus fantasy play this year.

Devonta Freeman was the star for the Falcons in this game, as he ran over and by defenders all day on his way to 21 carries for 106 yards and a touchdown, plus caught all three of his targets for 32 yards. Despite his stature, the man is stout and can do work in short-yardage, while also cleaning up in the receiving game. Tevin Coleman isn’t going away, as his 89 yards on nine touches will attest, but Freeman is the no-doubt lead back and has tons of upside each week in this offense.

Matt Ryan threw three interceptions to go along with two touchdowns and 294 yards passing. One of his interceptions turned into a pick-six, but it was a great play by the defender. Overall, this game wasn’t Ryan’s best by any stretch, but this appears to be his floor, which could be much worse – see Joe Flacco.

Colts 31, Browns 28
When two bad teams face each other, you can expect either a ton of scoring or very little scoring. This week, it was a ton. DeShone Kizer led the Browns with 242 yards passing and two touchdowns, while also rushing for 44 yards and a touchdown. The problem is, he also threw three interceptions. Thankfully, when it comes to fantasy, he can still put up numbers despite losing to the Colts.

Isaiah Crowell continues to have negative game scripts, which keep him from piling up carries, and there’s a good chance his team will continue playing from behind. But on the other side, these game scripts are much better for Duke Johnson, who saw seven targets against the Colts and caught six for 81 yards, while also rushing twice for 23 yards and a touchdown. I doubt you get that rushing touchdown too often from Johnson, but the seven targets couple with a couple running plays should keep him in the PPR conversation each week.

Just when you think it’s safe to drop T.Y. Hilton in your rankings, he goes off for seven receptions on nine targets for 153 yards and a touchdown. He won’t put those numbers up next week in Seattle, but this is the first time he’s looked dominant without Andrew Luck at the helm, which is a great sign.

Jacoby Brissett was the helmsman for the Colts this week, and he was more than capable, completing 17-of-24 passes for 259 yards and a touchdown, while adding five rushing attempts for 14 yards and two touchdowns. I think he’s been an upgrade over Scott Tolzien.

Vikings 34, Buccaneers 17
Jameis Winston was not at his best this week, completing 28-of-40 passes for 328 yards, two touchdowns and three interceptions, plus fumbling twice – both recovered by the Bucs. The Vikings got out to a quick lead and pushed Winston to pass the ball, which turned out to be trouble. Thankfully, he was able to throw the two touchdowns and over 300 yards to salvage his fantasy numbers, but his real-life play was nothing to write home about.

Xavier Rhodes kept the clamps on Mike Evans this week, which has become a theme for him. Rhodes will face the Lions and Bears next, so he won’t have a true No. 1 to shadow in those, but when he does, you better downgrade your fantasy expectations. The good news about Rhodes’ tough defense is that it pushes targets to the No. 2 receiver, giving them more opportunities, as DeSean Jackson saw this week on his way to catching 4-of-7 targets for 84 yards and a touchdown.

This was a weird week to be sure, and the play of Case Keenum was yet another sign of that weirdness/end of times. He completed 25-of-33 passes for 369 yards and three touchdowns, and it did not look fluky in the least. He made strong throws that were on time and well-placed. He’s shown us ability in the past, but could never keep any consistency, so it’s hard to recommend him moving forward, but it sure does help the Vikings’ offensive players to have a competent passer.

The biggest beneficiary of Keenum’s play was Stefon Diggs, who caught 8-of-11 targets for 173 yards and two touchdowns. We know Diggs has this ability, we just didn’t think it would be able to shine with Keenum throwing him the ball. We were wrong.

Dalvin Cook also exceled with the offense clicking, as he put up 169 total yards and a touchdown on 32 touches. Those 32 touches are fantasy gold, and Cook is one of the few running backs in the league with that kind of usage.

Patriots 36, Texans 33
Deshaun Watson came thissss close to beating the Patriots in Foxborough, but in the end, it was Tom Brady doing his usual game-winning heroics. But nobody expected the Texans to even be in this game, and Watson was the reason why. He wasn’t perfect by any means, but he made something out of nothing more than once and spread the ball around well on his way to a respectable fantasy day. Tom Savage will not see the field again unless Watson is hurt.

Lamar Miller was the lead back as usual, but he continues to lose a few looks to D’Onta Foreman. Miller ended with 15 touches for 64 yards, and Foreman had 10 touches for 90 yards. Most of Foreman’s yardage came on two dump-off passes, so I don’t see Miller losing the lead-back job, but as long as they are splitting touches like this, neither will be a strong start in the near future.

Brady wasn’t perfect in this game, but for most quarterbacks in the league, you probably wouldn’t even think of saying that, as he put up huge numbers, completing 25-of-35 passes for 378 yards and five touchdowns. If this were the Saints again, I’d just say, well, that’s Brady, but the Texans’ defense is for real and the Patriots were short on offensive lineman, but Brady still threw FIVE touchdowns! What are you gonna do?

Brandin Cooks had been held down the first two games for five receptions, but this week he caught 5-of-7 targets for 131 yards and two touchdowns, including a tough grab for the game-winner. I think you probably can’t buy low on him anymore.

Houston dominated the running game, allowing just 53 yards on 19 carries. Mike Gillislee was the main back, rushing 12 times for 31 yards, which is no good of course, but shows us the Patriots are still somewhat committed to him as the lead back.

Jets 20, Dolphins 6
Jay Cutler couldn’t get anything going against the Jets’ defense, which has been scorched so far this season and rightfully so. There really wasn’t anything from this game we can salvage for fantasy from the Dolphins. Cutler did hit DeVante Parker for a touchdown in the garbagiest garbage-time score of all time, but overall, Cutler was just not good and dampens the outlook of this offense moving forward.

Jay Ajayi came into this game at less than 100 percent, and his team got behind, so it wasn’t the best situation, but he still managed just 16 yards on 11 carries and caught 2-of-3 targets for nine yards. He didn’t have a major setback with his health, so hopefully he’ll be ready to roll next week against the Saints.

Josh McCown isn’t a horrible quarterback, as we’ve seen off and on for a while now. This week against Miami, he completed 18-of-23 passes for 249 yards and one touchdown. It’s not a fantasy number we can hang our hats on, but with the right matchup, McCown should be streamable at some point this season.

Elijah McGuire entered the Jets’ running back committee this week just to add a little rot to an already rotten situation. Unless one running back takes over as the main back, none of them can be started in fantasy.

Eagles 27, Giants 24
Eli Manning completed 35-of-47 passes for 366 yards, three touchdowns and two interceptions, and was aided by a game plan that had him getting the ball out fast and letting his receivers gather yards after the catch. Manning has the receivers to put up good numbers, especially now that Odell Beckham Jr. is healthy, but he’s always going to teeter toward horrible.

All of the Giants’ starting receivers put up decent numbers in this game, but Beckham and Sterling Shepard were the big fantasy winners. Brandon Marshall caught 8-of-11 targets for 66 yards, which will work in PPR leagues, but otherwise isn’t great, so I expect Sterling Shepard to continue to see work, but he’ll also be competing with Evan Engram over the middle.

Shane Vereen is the only viable fantasy running back for the Giants, yet was barely used this week. At this point, I’d go ahead and drop Paul Perkins, and don’t worry about Orleans Darkwa. If you aren’t in a full-point PPR league, toss Vereen to the side as well.

Carson Wentz didn’t kill the Eagles, but he sure wasn’t driving them forward in this game. He continues to miss his receivers deep, like he did with a wide-open Alshon Jeffery. The Eagles had a good lead in this game and slowed things down before the Giants roared back, so Wentz wasn’t his usual 40-plus attempts self. He needs big passing output to remain a consistent fantasy starter, which he should see more often than not.

LeGarrette Blount returned from the grave to rush 12 times for 67 yards and a touchdown, which is good, but 12 carries isn’t going to cut it, especially when Wendell Smallwood also had 12 carries and turned those into 71 yards, while also catching a pass for nine more yards. Smallwood had extra work in this one due to Darren Sproles breaking his arm, but showed enough to continue seeing work, while Corey Clement rushed six times for 22 yards and a touchdown. Losing Sproles will help Smallwood and Clement see more work, but Blount will likely need a lead to see enough work to be useful in fantasy, while Smallwood has the best shot of value between himself and Clement for now.

Saints 34, Panthers 13
Cam Newton isn’t healthy, and it was obvious in this game, as he was unable to beat the most beatable secondary in the league and never looked like he had a chance to. Newton completed 17-of-26 passes for 167 yards, no touchdowns and three interceptions before sitting due to the blowout. He did rush for a touchdown, but that was the only positive on the day for him.

Newton’s lack of deep accuracy and arm strength played into Christian McCaffrey’s wheelhouse, as he brought in 9-of-11 short passes for 101 yards. McCaffrey is not a factor between the tackles, but there’s no doubt he’s going to be a useful receiving option moving forward with the loss of Greg Olsen.

Kelvin Benjamin had to leave this game with a knee injury. It was reported later that he avoided a “major injury,” but there aren’t any real details yet. If he has to miss any time, expect McCaffrey to continue to see work, while Devin Funchess and Curtis Samuel would likely see upticks as well.

Drew Brees completed 22-of-29 passes for 220 yards and three touchdowns as the Saints coasted by the ineffective Panthers. If Carolina had put up a fight, Brees would have likely pushed these numbers up, but unfortunately for his fantasy backers, they’ll have to live with his three touchdowns.

Michael Thomas looked great to start this game, catching five passes for 50 yards and a touchdown on the first drive, but the Panthers gave the ball back to New Orleans in good field position more than once, and with a lead, the Saints ran the ball more than usual. Thomas ended his day by catching 7-of-8 passes for 87 yards and the touchdown, but he could have easily topped that with a better game script.

Mark Ingram looked good, totaling 86 yards on 16 touches, but he continued to lose carries to Adrian Peterson, who doesn’t have the burst he once had and really doesn’t add much to this offense, as seen by his nine carries for 33 yards.

Chiefs 24, Chargers 10
Phillip Rivers had a horrible day, completing just 20-of-40 passes for 237 yards, no touchdowns and three interceptions. He has these days, and they can kill you in fantasy, but he usually bounces back, especially with his pass catchers healthy at the moment. He’ll be tough to trust, but his upside makes it tough to ignore him as well.

Melvin Gordon had a decent day considering the overall offensive woes, as he rushed 17 times for 79 yards and a touchdown, but he also tweaked a knee injury, which kept him out for a big chunk of the game. He did return though and should be on track to play next week.

Kareem Hunt is tearing up the league right now, and nobody has shown any real resistance to him yet. The Chargers had no answer for Hunt, who rushed 17 times for 172 yards and a touchdown. He capped off his day with a 69-yard touchdown run to ice the game.

Kansas City didn’t need to throw the ball much, as Hunt was able to take over this game, especially with Rivers giving the ball away more than not, but Tyreek Hill was able to score on the Chiefs’ first drive and continued to show that he’s a true No. 1 receiver in this league. He has some huge games in his future when Kansas City trails early.

Packers 27, Bengals 24
The Bengals’ backfield just got a little more interesting with new offensive coordinator Bill Lazor at the controls. Jeremy Hill got the “start,” but ended up touching the ball just seven times for 23 yards, while Gio Bernard touched it five times for 39 yards and a touchdown, and rookie Joe Mixon saw the ball 21 times and totaled 101 yards. Mixon has the job now, and it’s time to get him in your lineups consistently.

Andy Dalton had much better luck with Lazor calling the plays this week, as he completed 21-of-27 passes for 212 yards and two touchdowns. It wasn’t perfect, but the passing game went through their best player, A.J. Green, and looked better for it, as Green caught 10-of-13 targets for 111 yards and a touchdown. The focus on Green and Mixon should help this team and help fantasy players.

The Packers got off to a slow start, but Aaron Rodgers did his thing in the second half, ending up with 313 yards, three touchdowns and an interception. It’s what he does.

Geronimo Allison was the overtime hero in this one, as he caught gobbled up 72 yards to set up the game-winning field goal, finishing with 6-of-8 receptions for 122 yards. He saw work this week due to Randall Cobb’s chest injury, so he would need Cobb to be out again this Thursday, to see enough targets to be a fantasy play again.

Ty Montgomery didn’t put up huge numbers, but was again used extensively, rushing 12 times for 35 yards and catching 8-of-12 targets for FIFTEEN YARDS! Sorry, that’s not many yards for eight receptions! But 12 targets are a ton and will continue to keep him as a top running back.

Titans 33, Seahawks 27
Russell Wilson looked like he was on his way to another down game, but he turned things around right before half, moving the ball 86 yards in under a minute, finishing it off with a short touchdown pass to Doug Baldwin. Wilson went on to set a career high with 379 yards passing to go along with his sixth game with four or more touchdown passes. An up-tempo passing game is the only thing that can hide the Seahawks’ poor offensive line, so expect them to continue doing just that.

Chris Carson was the obvious lead back this week, despite only seeing 11 carries and two receptions. He managed 52 yards on those touches along with a touchdown reception, while Thomas Rawls and Eddie Lacy both didn’t touch the ball. C.J. Prosise was the third-down back, catching 3-of-5 targets for 65 yards and rushing the ball four times for nine yards. The offensive line is a real problem for this running game, but if Seattle can ever get a lead, Carson should be in line for a decent amount of work.

Doug Baldwin caught 10-of-15 targets for 105 yards and a touchdown, but also had to leave the game with a groin injury. Paul Richardson would be the play if Baldwin can’t go next week.

Jimmy Graham is still alive it seems, as he caught 7-of-11 targets for 72 yards and was second on the team in targets. He’s not going to be the player we want him to be for fantasy, but he should still be useful as a back-end TE1.

DeMarco Murray came into this game having only practiced once during the week, while Derrick Henry had gotten full practices in and had looked great the previous week. And none of that mattered as Murray got the start and rushed 14 times for 115 yards and a touchdown. Henry rushed 13 times for 54 yards and looked good doing so, which is going to hurt Murray’s ceiling unless he can rip off a 75-yard touchdown each week.

Rishard Matthews was the leading target with Corey Davis out, catching 6-of-10 targets for 87 yards and a touchdown. He’s going to be solid as long as he’s getting targets, so keep an eye on Davis’ status.

Marcus Mariota had his best game of the year, completing 20-of-32 passes for 225 yards and two touchdowns, while adding 27 yards on the ground on seven carries. He’s trending upward, and I still think this offense can do big things with him at the helm.

Redskins 27, Raiders 10
Derek Carr completed 19-of-31 passes for 118 yards, one touchdown and two interceptions, and Marshawn Lynch ran the ball six times for 18 yards to lead the team in rushing. Do I need to go on?

Well, the only bright spot for the Raiders was Jared Cook, who caught 4-of-6 targets for 43 yards and a touchdown. It appears this team just didn’t have it on the road in a primetime game. Unfortunately, the Raiders travel to Denver next.

Carr did lose Michael Crabtree to a big hit in the fourth quarter. Hopefully, the Raiders kept him out as a precaution due to the shellacking they were taking.

Kirk Cousins got back on track in a big way against Oakland, completing 25-of-30 passes for 365 yards and three touchdowns as his team completely dominated in this Sunday night affair. This big game came without Jordan Reed and with Terrelle Pryor only catching two passes for 19 yards.

Side note: This does not look good for Pryor.

The biggest fantasy star was Chris Thompson, who ran the ball eight times for 38 yards and caught 6-of-7 targets for 150 yards and one touchdown. Now on the season, he has 25 touches for 350 yards and four touchdowns. That kind of production cannot last, but we did see his touches rise this week to 14, whereas he had just 11 in the first two games combined. He’ll be a sell-high, but it will be hard to sell high on someone who doesn’t have much volume. The good news is that Samaje Perine fumbled and Rob Kelley isn’t 100 percent, so we should see Washington at least try to keep Thompson’s touches up close to 15.

For more thoughts, check out Walt’s updated NFL Power Rankings, which will be posted Tuesday morning.

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