Fantasy Football: The Things I Learned – Week 1, 2017

By Chet Gresham – @ChetGresham
Follow @walterfootball for updates.

Below, check out my fantasy-centered recaps of key players from this week’s contests. For instance, did a player come back to earth after an aberrant breakout, or were they simply affected by something like game flow?

Raiders 26, Titans 16
Marcus Mariota got off to a hot start in this game with a rushing touchdown, but that ended up being his only touchdown of the day. It was good to see him rush three times for 26 yards, including that designed run for the touchdown, but a passing touchdown would have been nice, especially at home in a good matchup.

The run game didn’t do much for the Titans, and the split between Derrick Henry and DeMarco Murray makes for even worse individual numbers when the run game isn’t clicking. Murray had 12 carries for 44 yards and two receptions for 16 yards, while Henry carried the ball six times for 25 yards and no targets. At least we know Murray is still the lead back, and I only see this offense performing better as we move into the season.

Corey Davis is likely the main player from Tennessee you’ll want to look to on waivers. He led the team with 10 targets, catching six for 69 yards. Not a huge game, but he was coming off a short preseason due to injury and is only going to continue hogging targets.

Eric Decker’s line was ugly, seeing eight targets, but catching just three for 10 yards. The good news is that he saw a bunch of work inside the red zone, and I expect Mariota and he will get a connection going sooner than later.

The Raiders played well throughout this game, and we got to see a blast from the recent past with Marshawn Lynch running over defenders. He ended up with 17 carries for 76 yards and one reception for another 16 yards, and should have seen more work at the goal line, but the Raiders decided they must target Amari Cooper over and over again from the one-yard line to no avail. Lynch’s snaps were managed to keep him fresh, so that could hurt his upside, but that might not be the worst thing, especially if they give him the ball at the goal line!

Amari Cooper caught a touchdown from inside the red zone, which is like Halley’s Comet talking to Big Foot, but it does appear the Raiders are fully invested in getting him more touchdown opportunities. The trouble is, Cooper still has a few issues, as he dropped one sure touchdown and ended up catching just five of his 13 targets for 62 yards and a touchdown, while Michael Crabtree caught six-of-seven targets for 83 yards.

Lions 35, Cardinals 23
Carson Palmer looked bad against a Detroit defense that we won’t be afraid to play other quarterbacks against. It’s Week 1, and the Cardinals’ offensive line wasn’t good either, so maybe they can get things together in a cupcake matchup against the Colts next week. But there is real reason to be concerned about Palmer and this offense after this performance.

Probably the biggest news out of this game for fantasy was David Johnson injured his wrist. He still needs to get an MRI, but he doesn’t have a break; a sprain is likely, we just need to know the severity. Chris Mortensen is reporting the MRI will reveal if Johnson will be out a “few weeks” or “half the season or more.” That’s not all that reassuring unfortunately. His backup is Kerwynn Williams, who rushed for a touchdown, but Andre Ellington would also see a bump in receiving work, as he saw three targets compared to Johnson’s nine and Williams’ one. Arizona gets to face the Colts next week, so both backs will be worth targeting on your waiver wire.

Larry Fitzgerald led the way with 13 targets, but was inefficient, catching six for 74 yards. The No. 2-wide receiver target ended up being John Brown, who saw nine, catching four for 32 yards, but J.J. Nelson caught 5-of-6 targets for 43 yards and a touchdown. It’s not a situation that lends itself to a lot of hope for a breakout, but all three were usable in this game.

Matthew Stafford is currently second to the great Alex Smith in quarterback fantasy points, as we all expected. Stafford started of extremely slowly, but came on strong as he completed 29-of-41 passes for 292 yards, four touchdowns and one interception. It was a great performance against a defense that should have been able to slow him down. He’ll be hard to trust against the Giants’ defense next week, but after this game, maybe not.

Golden Tate ate up the under-belly of the Arizona defense, catching 10-of-12 targets for 107 yards, while rookie Kenny Golladay made two great touchdown catches, ending the day with four receptions on seven targets for 69 yards and the two touchdowns. Marvin Jones ended up seeing Patrick Peterson in coverage, and saw only two targets, but made them count as he caught both, one for a touchdown. These are your three receivers in Detroit, and it’s usually going to be much tougher for them to all put up workable fantasy numbers, but Golladay is hard to stop in the end zone, and I expect he’ll continue to get his chances and will be the No. 1 waiver grab for many.

Ameer Abdullah couldn’t get much going in this game against a stout Cardinals front line, but the real trouble is that he hasn’t gained on Theo Riddick for targets and Dwayne Washington cut into his work inside the red zone. It’s not the best news, but Abdullah did see 15 rushing attempts and four targets, which is actually pretty good considering he only totaled 41 yards. He’s still the lead back, but he’ll need to show more positive plays to keep close to those 19 looks he got today.

Bills 21, Jets 12
I don’t think we really needed this game to tell us the Jets are bad, but it sure reinforced that fact. Their leading receiver was Seahawks detritus Jermaine Kearse, who caught 7-of-9 targets for 59 yards and their second-leading receiver was Giants castoff Will Tye, who gained 34 yards on three receptions. I’m not giving you these numbers as a sign of anything good for fantasy. There is nothing good for fantasy in this receiving group.

Bilal Powell and Matt Forte split work, and were both not good. As long as they are splitting work, neither is startable with any kind of trust until one player gets the bulk of the work. That player should be Powell, so I’m still going to hold onto him.

The Bills looked decent, which is a lot to ask of a team that had a fire sale to help in its rebuilding efforts. Tyrod Taylor threw two touchdowns, and his one interception came off a deflection. He only threw for 224 yards, but also ran for another 38.

The real motor behind this offense was LeSean McCoy, who rushed 22 times for 110 yards and caught 5-of-6 targets for 49 more yards. He lost a goal-line carry and touchdown to Mike Tolbert, but McCoy had also just been taken out of the game with a hand injury that ended up not being a problem. As long as he’s healthy, McCoy is going to see a ton of work and will be a fantasy stud.

Charles Clay led the team with nine targets, catching four for 53 yards and a touchdown. His injury history is concerning, but he should continue to see good targets as Zay Jones and Jordan Matthews are both new to the offense and Taylor.

Matthews ended up with just three targets, but caught two for 61 yards, while Jones caught 1-of-4 targets for 21 yards. If I’m investing at all in this offense it’s, of course, with McCoy, but Clay and Matthews would be the next two on my list.

Falcons 23, Bears 17
The Bears have found a play-maker in Tarik Cohen. He ran the ball just five times, but for 66 yards, and was targeted a team-high 12 times, in which he caught eight passes for 47 yards and a touchdown. His teammate in the backfield Jordan Howard, wasn’t bad himself, rushing 13 times for 52 yards and a touchdown and catching 3-of-5 targets for 13 yards, but one of those targets was a potential game-winning touchdown that Howard dropped.

Howard is still the lead back, but Cohen’s performance and Howard’s drop should hurt Howard’s receiving numbers moving forward. The Bears’ defense looked good against the high-powered Falcons, but the offense is going to have to be able to score and get leads if Howard is going to see big workloads now that Cohen is entrenched in this offense.

The Bears “No. 1” receiver Kevin White fractured his collarbone and is likely done for the season. He played much of this game against Atlanta and ended up catching 2-of-4 targets for six yards. Of course, Mike Glennon isn’t good, but White doesn’t look like the player the Bearts thought they drafted.

Kendall Wright was one of my picks to not suck this week, but he wasn’t used for most of the game, that is until White went down. After that, Wright caught 3-of-4 targets for 34 yards. I have some faith that he’ll be a no-doubt starter moving forward, and Glennon, who can’t throw the ball far or well, will get his slot-man targets.

The Falcons had trouble with Chicago’s defense, which is something we might keep in mind moving forward. Julio Jones got off to a fast start with three receptions for 62 yards in the first half, but then the Bears put their clamps on him and he caught just one more pass for four yards. They’ve limited No. 1 receivers in the past as well, so it’s not crazy.

Devonta Freeman finished with 14 touches to Tevin Coleman’s 12, but if you count targets and rushing attempts, they tied with 14 each. We’ll have to look at their snap counts to see if they were similar, but it does look like Freeman will be the lead back, of course, but Coleman isn’t going away.

Austin Hooper will likely get some waiver-wire hype due to his 128 yards receiving and one touchdown, but that all came on two targets. I like Hooper a lot and expect him to be a good fantasy play at some point, but two targets aren’t going to get the job done most days.

Ravens 20, Bengals 0
Andy Dalton threw four interceptions and lost a fumble. That’s the opposite of good. The Ravens have his number, and I don’t expect this is the end of his career, but it was no-doubt ugly. As long as A.J. Green and Tyler Eifert are healthy, Dalton still has fantasy appeal in better matchups.

Speaking of Eifert, Dalton probably should have thrown him the ball. Eifert saw one target, which he caught for four yards. I would only worry if the Bengals don’t try to get him going next week.

The three-headed backfield ended up being led by Gio Bernard, as he saw seven carries for 40 yards and caught 1-of-2 targets for 39 yards. Jeremy Hill carried the ball six times for 26 yards and caught his lone target for -2 yards, and Joe Mixon carried the ball eight times for nine yards and caught all three of his targets for 15 yards.

It’s good to see Mixon getting targets and rushing attempts, but his rushing line was awful. The Ravens have a strong run defense, so I’m not throwing Mixon out with the bath water, but we’ll need an injury or some separation in this backfield before we can trust anyone for fantasy.

Joe Flacco had to do very little in this game, as Andy Dalton gave it away every chance he got, so Flacco’s 121 yards passing isn’t something to mock openly unless you just feel like it.

Jeremy Maclin led the team with a lofty four targets! He did make do, catching two for 56 yards and a touchdown though. We can’t really garner much good information from this game for the receivers.

The Ravens won with defense and rushing, as is their goal, which they usually don’t accomplish. Terrance West rushed 19 times for 80 yards and a touchdown, while Javorius Allen rushed 21 times for 71 yards. Yes, 21 times. Allen saw so much work due to a 20-0 lead in the fourth quarter and Danny Woodhead straining his hamstring early in the game.

Woodhead’s hamstring injury was tough because he was well on his way to a big game, having already caught all three of his targets for 33 yards, but Woodhead hasn’t been the healthiest player recently. This was somewhat expected, just not so quickly! We’ll need to learn more about the severity of Woodhead’s injury before we lose our minds, but this was something he dealt with in training camp, so I expect Baltimore will be extra cautious to make sure it’s 100 percent before he returns.

Steelers 21, Browns 18
The Browns may have found a quarterback who they can start all season, but he’ll be a work in progress. DeShone Kizer did a lot of good things. and then some bad. and then some just ok. But in the end, he put up 18.6 fantasy points with 222 yards passing, 17 yards rushing, one passing touchdown, one rushing touchdown and one interception. It was a mixed bag, but one that you can find some pretty tasty chunks in.

The Browns’ running game was stopped by the Steelers, which isn’t a great sign for Isaiah Crowell, as he didn’t split time with Duke Johnson, who is spending the majority of his snaps in the slot. Crowell ran 17 times for 33 yards, and Johnson had zero rushing attempts. Matthew Dayes actually out-touched Johnson with three rushing attempts for seven yards, and two targets and two receptions for nine yards. Johnson ended up with just two targets, catching both for 20 yards. I expect they’ll get Johnson more involved moving forward, but I can’t say that with any certainty.

Corey Coleman led the way in the receiving department, catching 5-of-6 targets for 53 yards and a touchdown. Kenny Britt, on the other hand, caught 1-of-3 targets for 13 yards. Things could change of course, but I feel good enough saying that Coleman is the No. 1 receiver in Cleveland.

The Steelers were not hitting on all cylinders in this game, but one of them was, and his name is Antonio Brown. Brown did what he does, catching all 11 of his targets for an extra-large 182 yards. He didn’t get into the end zone, but you know who did, well-known touchdown-thief Jesse James. Well, not well known for that until this week, when he caught two touchdowns, the only two offensive touchdowns scored by the Steelers.

Le’Veon Bell was a huge disappointment, but we probably should have been a little more cautious with him, since he’s only been with the team for a week after holding out. Bell ended up with 13 touches for 47 yards. Cleveland’s defense isn’t as bad as it was, but a lot of this is on Bell’s absence from training camp. Hopefully, he gets back on track soon.

Jaguars 29, Texans 7
Tom Savage is awful, but the Jaguars’ defense is tremendous, so it makes sense that Savage had no chance in this one and was pulled for Deshaun Watson at halftime. Watson came out firing, but also had trouble. He still looked better than Savage, but that is not saying much. Watson is likely going to end up with more starts than Savage, but I could see head coach Bill O’Brien going back to him next week. In the end, Watson has juice and Savage has everything clogged up.

DeAndre Hopkins was targeted 16 times, but poor quarterback play and tough defense held him to seven receptions for 55 yards and one touchdown. At least it’s an upgrade from last season, but he’ll need those targets to say high if he wants to keep the stats up.

C.J. Fiedorowicz started well, catching all four of his targets for 46 yards, but had to leave due to a concussion. He has a quick Thursday night turnaround, which makes him unlikely to play.

Lamar Miller actually put together 96 total yards, with 65 on the ground and 31 through the air. In this game, I think you can count that as a win, but I didn’t care for Tyler Ervin seeing more targets than Miller. We’ll see if that becomes a thing.

The Jaguars did exactly what they said they would; they hid Blake Bortles. Bortles threw the ball 21 times, completing 11 of those for 125 yards and a touchdown. The fact that he didn’t throw an interception or fumble was a huge win for the team.

Leonard Fournette was the main offense, rushing for 100 yards and a touchdown on 26 carries, plus catching all three of his targets for 24 yards. It was a great start for Jacksonville’s “win with defense and a running game” philosophy. Fournette is going to see enough work to be useful in fantasy, but no passing game will eventually hurt the running game.

The big news in this game is Allen Robinson tearing his ACL. It’s a big blow to fantasy rosters and the overall team’s offense. Marqise Lee and Allen Hurns will likely lead the way moving forward.

Eagles 30, Redskins 17
Kirk Cousins wasn’t up to the challenge of the Eagles’ defensive line, as he was sacked four times, threw an interception and fumbled twice – one being returned for a touchdown to seal the game. This was a horrible start for Cousins, but I’m not that worried for fantasy. We know he’s not Aaron Rodgers; we just need him to throw the ball a lot and rush a bit. He’ll do that, and this offense will play better in the future.

Terrelle Pryor led the team with 11 targets, catching six for 66 yards. He dropped a couple passes, and Cousins and he weren’t on the same page. I think both players were off in this game, but Pryor appears to be the No. 1 receiver and these two should show more rapport as the season builds.

Rob Kelley ran 10 times for 30 yards, tying Cousins for the team rushing-yards lead. Philadelphia’s defensive line was not helping their efforts, but Kelley has Samaje Perine waiting in the wings.

Jordan Reed caught 5-of-8 targets for 36 yards, but the good news is that his fractured toe didn’t look to be hindering him. That could change, but so far, so good.

Carson Wentz looked great in this game, especially on a crazy play in which he avoided defender after defender before finding Nelson Agholor for a 58-yard touchdown. The Eagles ran the ball 24 times and threw it 39 times, which is one reason to like Wentz in fantasy.

Alshon Jeffery dealt with Josh Norman on the outside for most of the game, so Zach Ertz and Agholor cleaned up over the middle. Ertz caught all eight of his targets for 93 yards to lead the team, but Agholor was the fantasy star, catching 6-of-8 passes for 86 yards and a touchdown. Jeffery will likely lead the team in targets over the season, but the Eagles look like they’ve got the players to tweak their offense and still put up points.

Rams 46, Colts 9
Scott Tolzien was the best Scott Tolzien he could be on his way to 9-of-18 completions for 128 yards, a fumble and two interceptions. His first throw of the day also happened to be returned for a touchdown. Jacoby Brissett will likely get the start next week against the Cardinals.

Marlon Mack took 24 yards for a touchdown, but it wasn’t called a touchdown and instead of challenging the play, Chuck Pagano tried to hurry up and run a play to catch the Rams off guard. The Colts ended up kicking a field goal. Mack saw a lot of work and got a goal-line touchdown later, but also played a lot of his time while Frank Gore was resting due to the blowout. The main concern for Gore at the moment is that Mack could vulture some goal-line carries this season. Well, the main concern is that Colts’ offense is god-awful.

Jared Goff completed 21-of-29 passes for 306 yards and a touchdown. That fact right there is enough to get you squinting your eyes to see if it was a misprint. Yes, the Rams played the hapless Colts, but come on, Goff was absolutely horrible last season. Sean McVay is doing something right in L.A.

Goff and Sammy Watkins played well together, as Watkins caught all five of his targets for 58 yards. He likely would have had more opportunities if the game wasn’t such a blowout. Watkins is a top talent, and if Goff can keep up anything close to the way he played this week, Watkins could be in for a very good season.

Rookie Cooper Kupp led the team in receiving, catching 4-of-6 targets for 76 yards and a touchdown. He just continues to show that he’s up for the challenge at the NFL level, and he’ll be high on my waiver-wire priority.

Todd Gurley rushed 19 times for 40 yards and a touchdown, plus caught 5-of-6 passes for 56 yards. The receiving work is great to see, but that rushing line leaves a lot to be desired if you are hoping Gurley has turned things around. If you think the Rams will be able to give Gurley 19 inefficient carries when they are losing, you would be incorrect.

Packers 17, Seahawks 9
Russell Wilson is going to be the death of me, or at least his truly offensive line will. He was running for his life all game, and it showed in his stats, as he completed just 14-of-27 passes for 158 yards.

Eddie Lacy rushed five times for three yards. He had no chance with this offensive line, but he also looked like he has all preseason, which is not good. Chris Carson rushed six times for 39 yards and always looked as if he was more explosive than Lacy. Thomas Rawls should be back next week, and C.J. Prosise is still alive, and the offensive line is awful, so I’m not going to spend much to get Carson.

The Seahawks’ defense is still a great unit, but when you are on the field as long as they were, trying to defend against Aaron Rodgers, well, that’s just not a winning proposition. Rodgers threw for 311 yards, but only had one touchdown and also threw an interception. It was a strong game against a tough defense.

Randall Cobb is alive! He caught 9-of-13 targets for 85 yards and looked good doing so. Rodgers still has plenty of mouths to feed, but this is a great sign for a player who we know has ability.

Ty Montgomery didn’t have the most efficient day, but he did pile up 24 touches for 93 total yards and a touchdown. I sure wasn’t expecting that kind of workload against Seattle, which means the Packers truly are committed to him being their every-down back.

Panthers 23, 49ers 3
Carlos Hyde is the fantasy name to like coming out of this extremely underwhelming performance by the 49ers. He looked good on his nine rushing attempts, which he took for 45 yards, but as you can see, he had just the nine because the team had to abandon the run. The good news is that he saw six targets and caught all of them for 32 yards. He’s only caught six passes one other time in his career, so if we can have a game-flow resistant Hyde, we have an upgrade.

Pierre Garcon was the clear target leader with 10, which he turned into six receptions for 81 yards. This feels like a Garcon line we might see often this year, which I think we can take.

Rookie George Kittle is the no-doubt starting tight end for the 49ers now. He came into this game with a hamstring injury, but played all game and caught 5-of-6 targets for 27 yards. Not a great line, but he’s the tight end to own in 2TE leagues.

The Panthers didn’t need to do much scoring in this one, so Cam Newton only threw 25 passes, completing 14 for 171 yards, two touchdowns and an interception. It’s a good thing they didn’t need much from Newton, because he was not on target. We can blame some of his rust on his lack of work this training camp and some on him just being an inaccurate passer. Newton won’t be the stud fantasy player he once was unless he runs in some goal-line touchdowns like the olden days.

Christian McCaffrey led Carolina with seven targets, catching five for 38 yards. He also rushed 13 times for 47 yards. 18 touches and 20 looks are what you want if you have him rostered.

Jonathan Stewart ended up with 18 carries for 65 yards and two receptions for 17 yards and a touchdown. McCaffrey out-gained him, but Stewart’s touchdown put him over the top in fantasy. Stewart should be in line for more touchdowns, but McCaffrey is likely going to be used more in situations where his team doesn’t have a lead. Both are usable in fantasy of course, but McCaffrey should have more upside.

Kelvin Benjamin had a rough go, catching just 1-of-5 targets for 25 yards, but this really wasn’t a normal game and Newton was very rusty. The same can be said for Greg Olsen, who ended up with two receptions for 18 yards.

Cowboys 19, Giants 3
Eli Manning isn’t getting any better it seems, and without Odell Beckham Jr. to throw to, he’s not going to do much to help your fantasy players be their best. Manning completed 29-of-38 passes for 220 yards, no touchdowns and one interception. It doesn’t help that the Giants rushed for a total of 35 yards either, but we knew who Manning was coming into this season; we just hoped all the players around him would elevate his play somewhat. He dearly misses Beckham.

Paul Perkins is the Giants’ lead back, but only if they have a lead, because in this game, Shane Vereen led in fantasy points, as he caught 9-of-10 targets for 51 yards and Perkins rushed seven times for 16 yards and caught 2-of-3 targets for nine yards. The Giants will have closer games, and Perkins may be able to see more work, but in this offense, expect Vereen to do a lot of work as a receiver.

Brandon Marshall caught one of his four targets for 10 yards. He also dropped a pass that could have gone for a big gainer. Marshall is going to need Beckham Jr. on the other side to take the heat, because he’s on the wrong side of the hill.

The Cowboys did their usual by grinding their opponents down into a fine dust by slowing the game down with the run and efficient passing. Dak Prescott didn’t need to do much, as his team had a lead early and the Giants couldn’t move the ball, but he still put up decent numbers and should remain a high-floor fantasy play.

Ezekiel Elliott rushed 24 times for 104 yards and caught all five of his targets for 36 yards. He didn’t find the end zone, but this is a great game against a tough Giants defense. You know what you get from Elliott, and now you get it all season.

For more thoughts, check out Walt’s updated NFL Power Rankings, which will be posted Tuesday morning.

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