Fantasy Football: The Things I Learned – Week 6, 2017

By Chet Gresham – @ChetGresham
Follow @walterfootball for updates.

Below, check out my fantasy-centered recaps of key players from this week’s contests. For instance, did a player come back to earth after an aberrant breakout, or were they simply affected by something like game flow?

Dolphins 20, Falcons 17
Austin Hooper caught 7-of-9 targets for 48 yards. His nine targets led the team – shouldn’t Julio Jones lead the team in targets? -, but his 48 yards were the result of a Falcons team that was stuck in the mud on offense. With Mohamed Sanu out, it’s hard to tell how much of Hooper’s target lead was based on Sanu’s absence or a push to get Hooper more involved, but until the Falcons get their offense moving, Hooper will likely remain a TE2.

Jay Ajayi finally broke out, as he rushed 26 times for 130 yards, but unfortunately couldn’t find pay dirt. He was the motor for this upset over the Falcons and has now run the ball 25 or more times in three of five games. His lack of receiving numbers hurts his overall upside, but the Dolphins will continue to work at getting him established each week.

Jay Cutler wasn’t great, but he did throw two touchdowns to help his team in a big upset, and his No. 1 target was yet again Jarvis Landry, who saw 14 targets and caught eight for 62 yards and a touchdown. Landry should continue to see good targets as the Dolphins will likely work at moving the ball on the ground in the short passing game with Cutler under center.

Vikings 23, Packers 10
Of course, the biggest fantasy news in this game for the Packers, and many fantasy players, is the injury to Aaron Rodgers. He suffered a broken collarbone and will be out for at least the bulk of the fantasy season and likely the rest of the season. Brett Hundley will be the starter moving forward. He was thrown into a game against a tough defense, and the results were fairly predictable, as he completed just 18-of-33 passes for 157 yards, one touchdown and three interceptions. With a week of practice as the starter and a home game against the Saints, he should have a better chance of success. He’s likely not the guy you want replacing Rodgers on your fantasy team though.

Ty Montgomery got the start, but ended up splitting work with Aaron Jones, with Jones seeing three more touches. Jones put up slightly better numbers, but with Rodgers out and the Vikings’ defense playing well, there wasn’t much hope for them. Montgomery didn’t look like he had any setbacks, but I expect we’ll see this split for the time being, and without Rodgers, it will be tough to pile up fantasy points while splitting work.

Jerrick McKinnon has clearly outplayed Latavius Murray in their two games together. This week, McKinnon totaled 99 yards and two touchdowns on 16 rushing attempts and five receptions, while Murray totaled 37 yards on 15 rushing attempts and one reception. The even split in rushing attempts seems odd, but the Vikings had a big lead and were trying to run out the clock, but McKinnon was able to score at the goal line, while Murray wasn’t, and if McKinnon can keep the goal-line carries along with the passing-down work, he should continue to see 20 touches a game.

Kyle Rudolph has nine targets in each of his last two games. The loss of Dalvin Cook and a groin injury for Stephon Diggs help those numbers, but with Cook out, I expect Rudolph will continue to see elevated targets even when Diggs returns. Rudolph is not going to put up Gronkian numbers, but if he’s seeing the targets, he’ll be a good source of touchdowns.

Saints 52, Lions 38
This was one of the craziest games I’ve seen in a while, and the craziness makes it a little difficult to glean much solid fantasy information for the future. Matthew Stafford lost two fumbles and threw three interceptions, as he and his offensive line were the opposite of good for most of the game. Stafford did end up throwing three touchdowns, but he had already unleashed too much self-inflicted damage.

Marvin Jones saw a team-high 14 targets, which was helped by Golden Tate injuring his shoulder in the third quarter. Jones caught six of those targets for 96 yards and a touchdown, and would be the main beneficiary if Tate were to miss any time, but with a bye next week, Tate may have enough time to heal.

Eric Ebron was once again outplayed by Darren Fells, who caught his third touchdown in the last two games. Ebron is very much droppable, but Fells will likely remain touchdown dependent, and you can’t depend on that.

With three defensive touchdowns and two rushing touchdowns for the Saints, Drew Brees wasn’t asked to do much. He completed 21-of-31 passes for 186 yards, two touchdowns and two interceptions. His numbers would have likely been better in any normal game where his team wouldn’t have had three defensive touchdowns.

The two rushing touchdowns came from Mark Ingram, who had a huge game after his team traded away Adrian Peterson. He rushed 25 times for 114 yards and two touchdowns, and caught five passes for 36 yards, after not topping 56 rushing yards or finding the end zone in his previous four games.

Alvin Kamara was a nice complement to Ingram, as he rushed 10 times for 75 yards and caught all four of his targets for 12 yards. This looks like it will be the likely split in work between the two, and in this offense, both can have value.

Patriots 24, Jets 17
Josh McCown completed 31-of-47 passes for 354 yards with two touchdowns and two interceptions, plus rushed three times for 21 yards. McCown’s biggest yardage total this year had been 249 yards against the Dolphins in Week 3, so this is yet another sign pointing you to start any quarterback against the Patriots.

Austin Seferian-Jenkins caught 8-of-11 passes for 46 yards and a touchdown, and he should have had a second, game-winning touchdown, but it was called a fumble and touchback, when it should not have been. That is a swift kick in the nether regions for many who played him this week. His yardage hasn’t been great since his return from suspension, but he now has 23 receptions in four games and two touchdowns. He will continue to be a favorite target for McCown moving forward.

Neither Elijah McGuire or Matt Forte could get anything going on the ground, but Forte had a nice PPR game, as he caught all eight of his targets for 59 yards. This backfield will remain a mess, especially when Bilal Powell returns.

Mike Gillislee lost a fumble early in the game and was benched until the second half. While he was benched, Dion Lewis got a goal-line carry and punched it in for a touchdown. Lewis has shown more burst than Gillislee and should have passed him after this week, but that’s not assured. With Rex Burkhead likely returning next week, this backfield remains a pain in the ass.

Chris Hogan only caught 1-of-4 targets for 19 yards and ended his steak of games with a touchdown at four. He did take a hard hit to the ribs, which may have been the cause for his slow game, but the Patriots’ offense as a whole wasn’t its normal efficient self either. It was nice to have a consistent fantasy play other than Tom Brady and Rob Gronkowski on the Patriots, but this team is always going to be tough to get a handle on for weekly offensive production. The good news is that Hogan has shown enough to be considered the no-doubt No. 1 receiver still.

Redskins 26, 49ers 24
C.J. Beathard replaced Brian Hoyer in the second half and completed 19-of-36 passes for 245 yards, one touchdown and one interception. He was a noted improvement over Hoyer, who could only muster 34 yards passing in the first half. Beathard’s not going to wow anyone away right out of the gate, but he should help raise the 49ers’ offensive starters’ fantasy ceiling.

Carlos Hyde had trouble getting going on the ground, but was able to score two touchdowns on goal-line carries and catch five passes for 47 yards, while Matt Breida just had six touches after he was talked up this week as a threat to Hyde’s work.

Chris Thompson got the start with Rob Kelley sidelined this week, but Thompson had no luck as a runner as he carried the ball 16 times for just 33 yards. But once again he did most of his damage through the air, as he caught 4-of-5 passes for 105 yards.

Terrelle Pryor and Jamison Crowder once again had down games as Kirk Cousins accumulated 231 of his 330 passing yards through completions to tight ends and running backs. Crowder has yet to top 52 yards in a game and has no touchdowns, while Pryor has one touchdown and just 10 receptions in his last four games. Both aren’t startable in most leagues right now, and Crowder is droppable, while Pryor is getting close.

Bears 27, Ravens 24
Alex Collins rushed 15 times for 74 yards and continues to show great ability, but has yet to be targeted in the passing game and is splitting carries with Buck Allen. Allen had 10 carries for 49 yards and caught 3-of-4 targets for 17 yards. With Joe Flacco and the Baltimore offense as a whole doing very little, one back will need to assert himself into 20 touches a game before any of them will be safe fantasy plays.

Joe Flacco is bad at football right now, as seen by his 24-of-41 completions for 180 yards, no touchdowns and two interceptions. This team is one to be avoided in fantasy if at all possible.

Mitch Trubisky threw the ball just 16 times, completing eight of those for 113 yards and a touchdown, plus rushed four times for 32 yards. He showed great poise and made the throws he had to make to win this game, but John Fox would rather grind out close games with 50 carries by running backs instead of getting Trubisky into games.

Jordan Howard ran the ball 36 times for 167 yards and caught one pass for nine yards. It was a great game by Howard and showed that he can get big chunks of yardage even when everyone in the stadium knows he is getting the ball.

Texans 33, Browns 17
So, Kevin Hogan isn’t very good. Who would have guessed? He completed 20-of-37 passes for 140 yards, one touchdown and three interceptions, with an additional 36 yards rushing on five attempts. He was all over the place with his throws and never really gave his team a chance. The Browns could easily go back to DeShone Kizer next week.

DeShaun Watson just can’t stop throwing touchdowns, but he did slack a bit this week with only three compared to five in each of his last two games. He wasn’t perfect, but he gets the job done over and over again. This week, Watson completed 17-of-29 passes for 225 yards, three touchdown passes and one interception. He also ran for 24 yards on six carries. Watson is currently the second-best fantasy quarterback this week. He’ll get a bye this upcoming week and then face a tough Seattle pass defense, but then he’ll have a plum matchup with the Colts.

Will Fuller caught yet another touchdown, his fifth in the three games he’s played this year. He’s also had just eight receptions on 14 targets in those three games. That isn’t sustainable of course, but he’s the no-doubt No. 2 receiver with a quarterback who is on fire. If you can trade Fuller for a consistent asset, then do it, but most people will realize he’s not going to average 1.7 touchdowns per game.

Chargers 17, Raiders 16
Derek Carr returned after missing last week, but he does have three fractured vertebrae and it showed this week as he mainly dinked and dunked his way to a loss.

Michael Crabtree once again found the end zone, giving him five touchdowns on the season. It was a miracle he got that, as the Raiders could do very little through the air with Carr dealing with his injury.

Amari Cooper caught five passes, but only totaled 28 yards. It’s far from good, but I’ll call this one a win due to the poor overall passing game and the fact that he had four receptions for 23 yards in the three previous games.

Melvin Gordon could average negative yards per carry and still score two touchdowns, it seems. This week, he averaged 3.3 yards per carry as he rushed 25 times for 83 yards, including a goal-line touchdown, but he did just as much damage – more if you play PPR – through the air, as he caught 9-of-12 targets for 67 yards and another touchdown. He now has three rushing touchdowns and four receiving touchdowns on the season. Gordon does get a tough matchup against the Broncos next week, but the man will find a way, just like he did in Week 1 against them.

Hunter Henry has now passed Antonio Gates without any doubt, as he saw seven targets to Gates’ one and caught five for 90 yards, with two huge receptions on the plays final drive. Despite his slow start due to the Chargers being extremely dumb in giving 37-year-old Gates the starting position, Henry is now firmly in the top-10 fantasy tight ends.

Steelers 19, Chiefs 13
Kansas City had 25 total yards with four minutes left in the third quarter, so any offense from your Kansas City fantasy players is actually fairly amazing. Kareem Hunt is the best example of that, as he was held in check for most of the game, but ended up catching 5-of-6 targets for 89 yards to go with his 21 yards rushing.

Le’Veon Bell and Antonio Brown combined for 334 yards and the Steelers’ two touchdowns on 43 touches. The rest of the team combined for 102 yards on nine touches. That’s probably troublesome for Pittsburgh as a team, because if you take one of those guys away, it will be tough for the other to carry the team on his back, but for fantasy, you aren’t going to mind the big usage numbers for your players.

Rams 27, Jaguars 17
Blake Bortles remains awful, and this game was yet another reminder of how bad he really is. He completed 23-of-35 passes for 241 yards, one touchdown and one interception, which looks like he was just mediocre, but in reality, he was awful.

As usual, Leonard Fournette was the offense in this one, as he started the game with a 75-yard touchdown run and finished with 130 yards rushing on 21 attempts, while his backup, Chris Ivory, tied for the team lead in targets with 10 and led the team with nine receptions for 74 yards and a touchdown. As you can see, Bortles’ only efficient target was a dumpoff play to Ivory. I doubt this becomes a thing, but Ivory has shown that he can excel in this backup role.

Jared Goff completed just 11-of-21 passes for 124 yards and a touchdown, which usually doesn’t get the job done, but thankfully Blake Bortles is the opposite of good and the Rams did most of their damage on a Pharaoh Cooper kick return touchdown and a blocked punt for a touchdown.

Cardinals 38, Buccaneers 33
The Bucs were down in this game 31-0 in the third quarter and also lost their starting quarterback Jameis Winston to a shoulder injury, but somehow managed to only lose 38 to 33. That sounds miraculous, even magical, or at the very least Fitzmagical! Yes, Ryan Fitzpatrick was the catalyst for a furious comeback that, in the end, came up short. Fitzpatrick completed 22-of-32 passes for 290 yards, three touchdowns and two interceptions as he pushed his team back into contention. Winston says he will be back next week, so we may have to go Fitzless in the coming weeks.

Cameron Brate continues to play well and now has a touchdown in each of his last four games after catching 6-of-8 targets for 76 yards and a touchdown against the Cardinals. Keep rolling him out there.

Carson Palmer was perfect on his way to building a 31-0 lead, but slowed things down after that. He completed 14-of-22 passes for 283 yards, three touchdowns and an interception. He’s averaging 309 yards passing a game and has turned things around sharply since his Week 1 debacle in Detroit.

Adrian Peterson came into this game with extremely low expectations. He wasn’t going to be a receiver, he was new to the offense, the Cardinals’ offensive line is bad, and he hasn’t shown his old form in years. So, of course, he goes off for 134 yards and two touchdowns on 26 carries, looking very much like the old All Day. Like any running back who isn’t getting targets, his workload will be contingent on game flow, and if Arizona had been down in this game, we would have seen Andre Ellington getting targets, but with a lead, Ellington saw one target and no rushing attempts.

Giants 23, Broncos 10
Trevor Siemian threw for 376 yards, but only finished with 10 points. He threw a pick-six and another interception, and never really got his team into this game. After a hot start, he’s fallen back to earth, but he still has job security due to his backups lack of ability.

Emmanuel Sanders was carted off with an ankle injury. We’ll need to learn more about the severity, but it does appear that he will miss some time.

C.J. Anderson rushed nine times for 17 yards and had zero targets. He’s still the lead back and will have better games, but he’s been all over the board this season and can’t be counted on as a top play.

The Giants lost all their wide receivers last week, so they went with a conservative game plan this week, which meant Orleans Darkwa would be the critical player for their offense against the Broncos’ tough run defense. And even after seeing it happen, I still find it hard to believe; Darkwa played great and ran 21 times for 117 yards and caught one pass for 13 yards. The Broncos had shut down Ezekiel Elliott, LeSean McCoy and Marshawn Lynch in their last three games for a total of 41 yards rushing on 32 carries. I’ll be picking up Darkwa wherever I can.

Evan Engram was the lone bright spot in the passing game, as he caught 5-of-7 passes for 82 yards and a touchdown, while the rest of the team totaled 46 yards on six receptions. Engram will be the focal point of this passing offense, along with Sterling Shepard when he returns, but Engram is a tight end, and finding someone of his ability and workload in the tight end slot for fantasy, is a boon.

For more thoughts, check out Walt’s updated NFL Power Rankings, which will be posted Tuesday morning.

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Fantasy Football: The Things I Learned – Week 6, 2017

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