NFL Picks Against the Spread: Week 7, 2017

NFL Picks (Preseason 2017): 9-10-1 (-$110)
NFL Picks (Week 1, 2017): 8-6-1 (+$135)
NFL Picks (Week 2, 2017): 9-7 (+$45)
NFL Picks (Week 3, 2017): 5-11 (-$425)
NFL Picks (Week 4, 2017): 5-11 (+$90)
NFL Picks (Week 5, 2017): 8-6 (+$1,080)
NFL Picks (Week 6, 2017): 6-8 (-$640)

NFL Picks (2017): 50-59-2 (+$175)
NFL Picks (2016): 148-127-10 (+$1,055)
NFL Picks (2015): 133-138-10 (-$2,360)
NFL Picks (2014): 143-132-7 (-$1,115)
NFL Picks (2013): 144-131-8 (+$5,580)
NFL Picks (2012): 130-145-8 (-$5,760)
NFL Picks (2011): 137-133-12 (-$1,925)
NFL Picks (2010): 144-131-8 (+$6,080)
NFL Picks (2009): 151-124-9 (+$3,370)
NFL Picks (2008): 136-125-6 (+$4,330)
If you don’t quite understand the line, total or anything else, go to my Sports Betting FAQ.

Vegas betting action updated Oct. 23, 6:15 p.m. ET. Follow @walterfootball for updates.

Go to Week 7 NFL Picks – Late Games

Kansas City Chiefs (5-1) at Oakland Raiders (2-4)
Line: Chiefs by 3. Total: 46.5.
Las Vegas Hilton Advance Point Spread: Chiefs -2.5.
Walt’s Calculated Line: Chiefs -4.
Thursday, Oct 19, 8:25 PM
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The Game. Edge: Chiefs.

WEEK 6 RECAP: As good as Week 5 was – 8-6, +$1,080 – I suffered a setback this week, as I was 6-8 (-$640). I had dumb picks on the Cardinals and Lions, and it didn’t help that the Falcons blew a 17-0 lead at halftime. I also missed some stuff, like I should’ve had a big play on the Rams, but was too scared of their scheduling dynamics.

The good news is that I feel like I’ve picked up on some stuff this week, so I feel confident heading into Week 7. We’ll see if that translates into a positive output!

OAKLAND OFFENSE: Ask any football fan why the Raiders have been underperforming this year, and most will say that it’s either Derek Carr or Amari Cooper. Both would be correct answers, as Carr’s injury and Cooper’s incompetence have definitely sunk the team. Another right choice would be the offensive line, which hasn’t been nearly as dominant as it has been the past couple of years. Gabe Jackson, who signed a big contract recently, has been awful because he’s been playing hurt. Meanwhile, Donald Penn and Kelechi Osemele haven’t been great, and right tackle continues to be a liability.

None of this is good with the Chiefs coming into town. Justin Houston has a great matchup against Marshall Newhouse, while Chris Jones could be problematic for Osemele. Oh, and Tamba Hali is eligible to return this week. I don’t think he’ll be back right away, but if he is, he could give the slightly regressing Penn some trouble.

This is obviously bad news for Carr and Marshawn Lynch. Carr was clearly not himself against the Chargers, which did not surprise Michael Irvin, who had the same injury during his career. Irvin said on the pre-game show that there was no way Carr was going to be healthy enough to play well after just one week off, and he was right. Given that this game is just four days after the Charger contest, it’s highly unlikely that Carr will be himself in this matchup. I don’t expect much from Lynch either, as he’s averaging just 3.7 yards per carry.

KANSAS CITY OFFENSE: The Chiefs have an offensive line issue of their own, as the awful Cameron Erving was forced to start versus the Steelers in favor of the injured Laurent Duvernay-Tardif. The Steelers abused him and poor left guard Bryan Witzmann with their extremely talented five-techniques. The Raiders will try to do the same thing if Erving has to start again, but their interior defensive line isn’t nearly as potent is Pittsburgh’s. Mario Edwards is a solid player, but that’s about it. Oakland’s best pass rush comes off the edge, and that’s where Kansas City is strongest up front.

The Raiders, of course, have their problems defending tight ends, pass-catching backs and receivers because of their issues at linebacker and cornerback. Unfortunately for them, they have to go against three extremely talented players in Travis Kelce, Kareem Hunt and Tyreek Hill, all of whom figure to have big performances. The Raiders signed NaVorro Bowman to help, but I’m not sure how much of a boost he can provide right away, or if he’ll even take the field just three days after being signed.

If Bowman does make an impact in this game, it’ll be in run support. The Raiders need help in that regard, as they’ve surrendered at least 114 rushing yards to three of their previous four opponents. Hunt has been one of the top running backs in the NFL this year, so putting the clamps on him will be a challenge, though possible if Erving is starting once more.

RECAP: The public is all over the Chiefs, but sometimes the casual bettors are right. I think they are in this instance. My rule for Thursday night games is to pick the better team, and I’d say Kansas City qualifies as such. Carr’s injury is also a big factor for me. It’s clear that he’s not completely healthy.

With all things considered, I made this spread Kansas City -4, so we’re getting a point of value with the visitor. That may not sound like a lot, but we’re going through key numbers. I’m going to place two units on the Chiefs.

I’ll be posting these NFL Picks all day Tuesday. Follow me at @walterfootball for updates.

THURSDAY THOUGHTS: There’s some significant injury news, as Raiders right tackle Marshall Newhouse is out with a foot injury. Newhouse isn’t very good, but he’s not horrible either. His backup will be charged with blocking Justin Houston, which sounds like a huge problem. The sharps, despite this, are betting the Raiders, which I don’t understand. I’m more inclined to put an extra unit on the Chiefs, especially at -3 +105 (5Dimes). I’m going to lock that in, actually, as I love the prospect of getting positive juice on a side I’m pretty confident in.

FINAL THOUGHTS: I’m not going to lie to you. I’m a bit concerned that the desperate Raiders get an inspired performance from NaVorro Bowman, just as the Cardinals did from Adrian Peterson last week. That said, the Chiefs are coming off a loss, so they should be focused in a divisional matchup. Also, Derek Carr is not completely healthy, and he’ll be missing his right tackle. And finally, this is a Thursday night game, so taking the better team should work. I’m on the Chiefs for three units.

By the way, here’s our Week 7 NFL Picks podcast video:

The Psychology. Edge: None.
No edge found.

The Vegas. Edge: Raiders.

All the money is on the Chiefs.

Percentage of money on Kansas City: 77% (44,000 bets)

The Trends. Edge: Chiefs.

History: Road Team has won 14 of the last 21 meetings (Chiefs won the last 5 meetings).

Andy Reid is 14-6 ATS on the West Coast.

Opening Line: Chiefs -3.

Opening Total: 47.5.

Weather: .

Week 7 NFL Pick: Chiefs 24, Raiders 16
Chiefs -3 +105 (3 Units) — Incorrect; -$300
Under 46.5 (0 Units) — Incorrect; $0
Raiders 31, Chiefs 30

Tennessee Titans (3-3) at Cleveland Browns (0-6)
Line: Titans by 5.5. Total: 43.5.
Las Vegas Hilton Advance Point Spread: No Line (Mariota).
Walt’s Calculated Line: Titans -8.
Sunday, Oct 22, 1:00 PM
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The Game. Edge: Titans.

My overrated-underrated feature will continue in this spot, and I’m going to emphasize injuries (particularly those on the offensive line)…

Underrated NFL Teams:

Chicago Bears: The Bears aren’t nearly as bad as they looked on national TV against the Packers. They were playing on a short week, and if you take away Mike Glennon’s three horrible turnovers, Chicago played almost evenly with Green Bay. The Bears defeated the Steelers and Ravens (the latter, on the road) and almost took down the Falcons and Vikings, and now they have a healthy offensive line.

Tampa Bay Buccaneers: The Buccaneers’ lack of effort in Arizona was appalling. Coming off a loss, with extra rest, I figured Tampa would win against the Cardinals, but that wasn’t the case. The Buccaneers were extremely aloof. The best explanation I’ve heard is that they are a young team facing a rotting carcass of an opponent, and the players basically slept through meetings because they assumed they’d easily beat the Cardinals. I can buy that. Let’s not forget that Tampa was a couple of missed field goals away from beating the Patriots despite missing three key defenders.

Washington Redskins: The Redskins are now 3-2, but they easily could be 4-1 had Josh Doctson hung on to a touchdown late versus Kansas City. That means Washington’s only legitimate defeat was against the 5-1 Eagles. The Redskins aren’t viewed by most as one of the better teams in the NFL, but I think they are. They definitely belong in the top 10 of NFL power rankings.

Overrated NFL Teams:

Dallas Cowboys: The Cowboys were definitely legitimate in 2016, but I thought they’d take a step backward this season, and that’s exactly what’s happening. They lost two members of their fantastic offensive line, while three key players in their secondary have departed as well. Tyron Smith isn’t healthy at all, while Sean Lee continues to miss action.

New Orleans Saints: I think the Saints are a good team. Their offensive line is better with Terron Armstead back, and the defense has improved. However, their three victories aren’t all that impressive, considering two of the quarterbacks they’ve beaten were playing hurt (Cam Newton, Matthew Stafford), while the third was Jay Cutler in London. I had the urge to put the Saints as high as No. 7 in my power rankings, but after thinking about it, I realized I was overrating them.

Seattle Seahawks: I’m hesitant to call the Seahawks overrated because they’re fully capable of going on a great winning streak following their bye. However, they have not looked impressive at all this year, save for the second half against the Colts. They can’t block whatsoever, they struggle to run the ball, and the defense just doesn’t look the same. Jared Goff had way too much success for my liking in Sunday’s matchup, and Seattle would have lost had the Rams not killed themselves with numerous careless mistakes.

TENNESSEE OFFENSE: I mentioned that Derek Carr wasn’t healthy in the previous game preview. The same could be said of Marcus Mariota. Though he threw well Monday night – albeit against a putrid defense – Mariota did nothing to challenge the Colts on the ground. He tried scrambling once, but it was a failure. He ended up with no rushing yardage, so it just goes to show how bad Indianapolis is defensively that it couldn’t contain an immobile Mariota.

The Browns are even worse on the defensive side of the ball, sadly. Their pass rush has improved with Myles Garrett seeing more snaps each week, but the Titans have a great left tackle in Taylor Lewan who can neutralize Garrett for the most part. Mariota, as a consequence, will have plenty of time to dissect a secondary that couldn’t stop Josh McCown a couple of weeks ago. There are just too many liabilities in the defensive backfield; Jamar Taylor gets torched on a weekly basis, while Jabrill Peppers doesn’t appear to have a clue on how to play safety.

The Titans, of course, will attempt to establish both the run, though they may not have as much success in doing that. The Browns have limited all but two opponents to fewer than 80 rushing yards. That said, their linebackers can be attacked with Delanie Walker, who should rebound off Monday night’s dud performance.

CLEVELAND OFFENSE: The Browns have not announced who their starting quarterback is going to be. I have to imagine it’s DeShone Kizer after Kevin Hogan embarrassed himself last week. I would personally go with Cody Kessler while Kizer figures things out, but then again, I don’t boast an impressive 1-21 head-coaching record with the Browns like Hue Jackson does, so what do I know?

Kizer will almost certainly play, which means more turnovers for the opposing team. Kizer has given the ball away very frequently, though it’s not all his fault. He has a miserable supporting cast with Corey Coleman out, and there’s no running game to support him. Preseason phenom Kasen Williams has shown a bit of promise, but he’s unlikely to do much against a secondary featuring Adoree Jackson and Logan Ryan, both of whom were impressive Monday night.

Meanwhile, Kizer will continue to take sacks. He has a decent offensive line, but he’s been guilty of holding the ball way too long, thanks to his inability to process information very quickly. The Titans can take advantage of some holes up front, including right tackle Shon Coleman. Derrick Morgan figures to have a big game going against him. Center J.C. Tretter has also struggled, but only because he’s hurt.

RECAP: I can’t say I quite understand this spread. I came up with Titans -8. Then again, I made a huge adjustment on the Browns, negatively, so that I never pick them again. I’m 0-6 in Cleveland games this year, but that has involved me selecting them every single week except the season opener. And they’ve awarded me with losing every time.

Still, though, I don’t get it. Who’s going to bet the Browns at +5.5? If the line were over a touchdown, some might think they could get a back-door cover, but +5.5 obviously makes that less likely.

I’m going to be picking the Titans, but I have no desire to bet on them. Perhaps that would be different if Mariota were healthy, but wagering on a hobbled quarterback as a 5.5-point road favorite doesn’t seem like the smartest move.

THURSDAY THOUGHTS: The Titans have some injury concerns with DeMarco Murray and Derrick Morgan possibly out, but I don’t care. I’m not betting either side. The sharps have not taken the Browns, for what it’s worth.

SATURDAY NOTES: It looks like Derrick Morgan is going to play, but the Titans could be without Delanie Walker, who missed Friday’s practice. The Browns might also be missing their top defensive back, as Jason McCourty got hurt in practice. Either way, I’m not betting either side, and it doesn’t look like the sharps are either.

FINAL THOUGHTS: The Browns are definitely missing their top cornerback, Jason McCourty, and the Titans will have both Delanie Walker and DeMarco Murray. It’s telling that the sharps haven’t touched the Browns at all. Tennessee seems like the right side, but I’m just concerned about Marcus Mariota’s hamstring.

The Psychology. Edge: None.
No edge found.

The Vegas. Edge: Browns.

Who in their right mind would bet Cleveland?

Percentage of money on Tennessee: 66% (14,000 bets)

The Trends. Edge: TBA.

Dick LeBeau is 21-3 SU vs. rookie quarterbacks. ???

Teams are 14-22-2 ATS prior to London.

Opening Line: Titans -5.

Opening Total: 46.5.

Weather: .

Week 7 NFL Pick: Titans 27, Browns 17
Titans -5.5 (0 Units) — Incorrect; $0
Under 43.5 (0 Units) — Correct; $0
Titans 12, Browns 9

Jacksonville Jaguars (3-3) at Indianapolis Colts (2-4)
Line: Jaguars by 3. Total: 42.
Las Vegas Hilton Advance Point Spread: Jaguars -3.
Walt’s Calculated Line: Jaguars -2.
Sunday, Oct 22, 1:00 PM
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The Game. Edge: Jaguars.

VEGAS UPDATE: I’ll be posting how the Vegas sportsbooks have done the previous week in this spot. Here were last week’s most-bet sides:

Packers -3

Patriots -9.5

Chiefs -4.5

Broncos -12

Falcons -11

The highest-bet sides were 11-11-1 heading into Week 6. Well, they lost this past weekend. All of them. The Packers, Patriots, Chiefs, Broncos and Falcons all failed to cover. It was a blood bath for the public. Highest-bet sides are now 11-16-1 on the year.

Here are the five highest-bet sides, as of Tuesday morning:

Chiefs -3

Jaguars -3

Titans -5.5

Panthers -3

Cowboys -6

Every single one of these teams happens to be a road favorite, so it appears as though the public didn’t learn its lesson.

Oh, and our weekly fantasy football contest has returned. It’s like DFS, but weekly and free, and there are cash prizes! There’s no reason not to enter, and you can submit up to five lineups per week! Click the link here for our new Weekly Fantasy Football Contest!

INDIANAPOLIS OFFENSE: Jacoby Brissett hasn’t looked bad in his five starts thus far. His numbers have just been average – 59.8 completion percentage, 7.4 YPA, 3:3 touchdown-to-interception ratio – but I suppose our expectations were extremely low of non-Andrew Luck Colts quarterbacks after seeing Scott Tolzien struggle in Week 1. Plus, it’s not like Brissett has the best supporting cast. Donte Moncrief and Jack Doyle can’t stop dropping passes, while the offensive line is a bit of a sieve, to put it nicely.

The blocking unit had some troubles Monday night, but that’s nothing compared to what it’ll face versus the Jaguars. The interior of Indianapolis’ offensive line is atrocious, so I don’t know how it’s going to block Calais Campbell, Malik Jackson and Abry Jones. Yannick Ngakoue, who is having a terrific year, will easily blow by right tackle Joe Haeg as well. This will force Brissett to release passes faster than he’ll want to, which figures to be problematic versus Jacksonville’s secondary. Jalen Ramsey will smother T.Y. Hilton, so Moncrief and Doyle will have more chances to screw up.

The one positive aspect for the Colts in this game, at least on paper, is Frank Gore going against Jacksonville’s run defense. However, that’s misleading, as the Jaguars have allowed some fluky long runs to skew their stats. They limited the Steelers to 56 rushing yards on 18 carries two weeks ago, so it’s pretty obvious that they’re not nearly as bad against ground attacks as the stats say they are. Thus, I don’t expect Gore to do much. I’d like to see Marlon Mack more involved, but he curiously received just two carries Monday night, thanks to some very poor coaching.

JACKSONVILLE OFFENSE: As bad as the Colts’ offensive line is, Jacksonville’s, sadly, is even worse. The Jaguars have an inept blocking unit with only one decent lineman. That would be center Brandon Linder, who has been sidelined the past two weeks with some sort of mysterious illness. Players usually don’t miss games when “illness” shows up in the injury report, so Linder’s condition might be serious, unfortunately.

The Colts have some glaring issues defensively, but their defensive line and edge rushers are pretty potent. Jabaal Sheard and John Simon both have terrific matchups against Jacksonville’s poor tackles, and Johnathan Hankins will be able to handle some sub-par interior offensive line play. Blake Bortles will constantly be under siege, and his mediocre receivers won’t help him very much. This could quite easily lead to more turnovers.

The way to attack the Colts is by trying to expose their utterly horrid linebackers, but outside of Chris Ivory as a pass-catcher, the Jaguars don’t really have the personnel to do this. Instead, they’ll try to establish Leonard Fournette, who will seek to break a long touchdown run just as Derrick Henry did Monday night to crush the souls of Indianapolis bettors. The problem is that the Colts, prior to that Henry run, had surrendered just one 100-yard rushing performance this season.

RECAP: I think we all learned our lesson with Bortles being a road favorite. He lost on the road to the Jets, and given that New York and Indianapolis are about the same-caliber team, I don’t see why this result would be any different. I made this line Indianapolis +2, so Jacksonville is being inflated by a point.

If I had more faith in the Colts, I would bet them. I can’t, however, as they just have a penchant for blowing both wins and covers in the fourth quarter. They’re just very poorly coached, and they don’t have Luck around to compensate for it. I think they’re the right side because Bortles should only be wagered on as a substantial underdog, but this is going to be a zero-unit selection.

THURSDAY THOUGHTS: Leonard Fournette and Brandon Linder still aren’t practicing for the Jaguars. Fournette is expected to play, but Linder is still sidelined with his mysterious illness. That’ll hurt against Indianapolis’ solid defensive front, so I still like the Colts. Not enough to bet them, however.

SATURDAY NOTES: Brandon Linder is out, while Leonard Fournette’s status is still up in the air. I don’t want to bet on the Colts, however. The sharps haven’t done that either. They’re just not a good football team.

FINAL THOUGHTS: Leonard Fournette is out, so you’d think that this line would fall a bit. It turns out Fournette is worth zero points, somehow. The Colts would look good as a bet if I trusted them at all.

The Psychology. Edge: None.
No edge found.

The Vegas. Edge: Colts.
Who is going to bet on Indianapolis?

Percentage of money on Jacksonville: 62% (14,000 bets)

The Trends. Edge: None.

History: 20 of the last 30 meetings decided by 8 points or fewer (Colts 7-2 SU, 5-4 ATS last 9).

Opening Line: Jaguars -3.

Opening Total: 44.5.

Weather: .

Week 7 NFL Pick: Jaguars 20, Colts 19
Colts +3 (0 Units) — Incorrect; $0
Under 42 (0 Units) — Correct; $0
Jaguars 27, Colts 0

Baltimore Ravens (3-3) at Minnesota Vikings (4-2)
Line: Vikings by 4.5. Total: 38.5.
Las Vegas Hilton Advance Point Spread: Vikings -3.
Walt’s Calculated Line: Vikings -4.
Sunday, Oct 22, 1:00 PM
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The Game. Edge: Vikings.

I wouldn’t say my weekly random NFL notes cluttered these picks pages, so I’ll keep them here. What I’m also going to do is store all of them in a Random NFL Notes section so that you can go back and read previous entries in the future.

Some random NFL notes I can’t put anywhere else:

1. Week 6 was a weird one. Teams blew massive leads and there were tons of upsets, including the Giants beating the Broncos as 14-point underdogs. And to top it off, we had another ridiculous Monday night front-door cover.

If you think Week 6 was weird this season, how about what happened 15 years ago in Week 6? I went 0-13-1 with my picks. That’s right – 0-13-1! It was my worst week ever, and it changed how I handicapped. It’s nice to know that 15 years later, I’ve learned enough to go 6-8!!!

2. I had a bad week, and Al Michaels apparently did as well. If you didn’t hear it, Michaels made a semi-joke about the Giants, saying the following: “The Giants have had a worse week than Harvey Weinstein!”

I chuckled at this, but knew that some people would whine and complain about it. I didn’t expect, however, that Michaels would be forced to apologize about it on the air!

People need to calm the f*** down. Seriously. Humor is supposed to be offensive, and I’m not even sure how offensive it was, anyway. Harvey Weinstein is an a**hole, and what he did was horrible, but why would people be offended by an announcer saying that a team had a worse week than Harvey Weinstein? How is that remotely offensive? Harvey Weinstein had a terrible week, and so did the Giants. So what? Is it offensive to merely bring up Harvey Weinstein’s name? That’s just dumb.

Remember when no one got offended by anything in the 90s? Those were the good, old days. Now, people whine and cry about everything 140 characters at a time, and the world is going straight to hell.

3. I noted several weeks ago that I made the change from ESPN to NFL Network for my pre-game show of choice, and I’ve had no regrets about it. I see clip-show highlights of ESPN during commercials on Monday Night Football, and I don’t regret not tuning in. They have a sideline reporter as the host for some reason, and they’re still doing that insufferable emoji session where they’re trying to appeal to millenial douches who aren’t even watching their program.

NFL Network is better because of Rich Eisen, and I’m still dumbfounded that ESPN didn’t pay Eisen as much money as possible to keep him on as Chris Berman’s successor.

The one element of the NFL Network pre-game show I don’t like very much, however, is Steve Mariucci. Here was his analysis of the Packers prior to them playing the Cowboys two weeks ago:

“The Packers are he better team but they’re banged up, OK? Their top five tackles are out, OK? They’re missing, uhh, Ty Mont… Montgomery, OK? They’re missing Mike Daniels! Mike Daniels, OK?”

In addition to annoyingly asking “OK?” a billion times, Mariucci was just factually incorrect. The Packers had Bryan Bulaga back from injury, so they weren’t missing their top five tackles, and Daniels was set to play as well. I can handle analysts being annoying, but those who don’t do their research shouldn’t be on TV.

BALTIMORE OFFENSE: The Ravens haven’t been the same ever since losing Marshal Yanda, perhaps the best guard in the NFL. They were 2-0 prior to his injury, but have gone just 1-3 since, scoring in single digits twice. They posted 24 points last week, but only because they scored twice on special teams.

Things can only get worse for the decrepit Joe Flacco, as he’ll be battling a fierce Minnesota defense this week. If there’s one piece of good news, it’s that his tackles, Ronnie Stanley and Austin Howard, should do a decent job on Minnesota’s dynamic edge rushers, Everson Griffen and Danielle Hunter. The bad news, however, is that without Yanda, Baltimore won’t be able to block Linval Joseph at all, which will create problems for Flacco.

I imagine that Baltimore will have a more careful game plan this week, as the team clearly underestimated Chicago. Beating Minnesota’s linebackers is possible, as Eric Kendricks has struggled this year. That would explain why they haven’t been very good versus tight ends, so perhaps Ben Watson can have a solid game. It’ll also help the Ravens if Andrew Sendejo is out again, though I’m not sure that Flacco can take advantage of that absence.

MINNESOTA OFFENSE: Yanda isn’t the only major injury the Ravens have endured in recent weeks, as nose tackle Brandon Williams’ absence has been enormous. Ever since Williams went down, the Ravens have surrendered three 150-yard rushing performances in four games, and the lone exception was the Raiders, who struggle to run the ball. Though the Vikings lost Dalvin Cook, they can move the chains on the ground, as Jerick McKinnon has been a surprisingly effective replacement.

That said, it sounds like there’s a legitimate chance Williams could return to the field this Sunday. Williams did some sprints last week, and he was listed as doubtful rather than out. Perhaps that’s a sign that he’ll be ready to play this Sunday. If so, he’ll be a huge boon for a defense that desperately needs one.

Another impactful injury on this side of the ball is to Stefon Diggs, who missed last week’s contest. The Vikings weren’t punished for it because they battled an atrocious Packer secondary that made things very easy for Case Keenum. The Ravens are obviously better in that regard, though Eric Weddle has been a huge disappointment. Still, Jimmy Smith should be able to do a decent job on Diggs if he returns.

RECAP: Four of Minnesota’s previous five offensive outputs have been 9, 7, 20 and 23 points. The team should not be trusted to cover a spread of more than a field goal because of these limitations, unless it happens to be playing a pathetic opponent.

Some may see the Ravens as pathetic because they lost at home to the Bears, but need I remind you that they beat the Raiders by 13 in Oakland two weeks ago? Sure, E.J. Manuel was playing, but Baltimore still scored 30 points. The Ravens are bad, but I wouldn’t say they’re one of the worst teams in the NFL, especially if Williams is set to return. It’s unclear if he can play, but Williams will provide a huge boost for the defense, meaning this should be a low-scoring grinder.

Also, Minnesota’s emotional state needs to be considered. The Vikings just beat the Packers. With Aaron Rodgers done for the year, everyone’s saying they’re going to win the NFC North easily. Now, they take on an opponent that just lost to the Bears prior to flying out to London. I cannot see the Vikings playing their best football here, and I have to believe that the angry Ravens will look to redeem themselves from last week’s embarrassing loss.

I like the Ravens for a couple of units, and I’m willing to increase my wager if Williams can return from injury, or if this line moves to +6. We’re getting solid line value already; this spread was Minnesota -3 a week ago, and I made it -4. Getting six points in a defensive struggle sounds like a sweeter deal, so hopefully the spread moves up.

THURSDAY THOUGHTS: Brandon Williams practiced fully Wednesday, which is huge news for Baltimore’s run defense. If Williams is cleared, I’m going to bump this pick to three units, though a line of +6 would do that as well.

SATURDAY NOTES: Brandon Williams is looking like he’ll be in the lineup. Meanwhile, the Vikings could be missing Riley Reiff, who was a late addition to the injury report. Stefon Diggs is out, too. All signs are pointing toward a Baltimore cover, so I’m going to increase my wager to three units.

FINAL THOUGHTS: Brandon Williams is active, which is great news. The sharps have been betting the Ravens on Sunday morning, but +4.5 is still good enough.

The Psychology. Edge: Ravens.

The Vikings just had a big win over the Packers and have to fly out to London after this game. The Ravens will be looking to bounce back off an overtime loss as a favorite.

The Vegas. Edge: None.
Equal action.

Percentage of money on Minnesota: 55% (14,000 bets)

The Trends. Edge: None.

Mike Zimmer is 35-17 ATS as head coach of the Vikings.

Vikings are 21-8 ATS at home since 2014.

Teams are 14-22-2 ATS prior to London.

Opening Line: Vikings -5.

Opening Total: 39.5.

Weather: .

Week 7 NFL Pick: Vikings 17, Ravens 16
Ravens +4.5 (3 Units) — Incorrect; -$330
Under 38.5 (0.5 Units) — Incorrect; -$55
Vikings 24, Ravens 16

New York Jets (3-3) at Miami Dolphins (3-2)
Line: Dolphins by 3. Total: 39.5.
Las Vegas Hilton Advance Point Spread: Dolphins -4.5.
Walt’s Calculated Line: Dolphins -3.
Sunday, Oct 22, 1:00 PM
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The Game. Edge: Dolphins.

As with the random NFL notes, I’m going to have all of my Random College Football Notes on one page as well. Oh, and you can find my College Football Picks here.

Random College Football Notes:

1. I haven’t looked at the new college football rankings yet, but I hope that the voters don’t penalize Clemson too much for the loss at Syracuse. The Tigers suffered their first defeat of the year, but it was because quarterback Kelly Bryant suffered a concussion prior to halftime. Clemson had to use its backup in the second half, and it lost as a consequence.

Clemson shouldn’t fall because of Bryant’s concussion. I’m confident the team would’ve beaten Syracuse had Bryant not gone down, and I don’t think the Tigers should be penalized. It’s not like Bryant is out for the year, or anything. He’ll be back soon, and come January, Clemson will be either the top or second-best team in the country. Not slotting them in the playoffs because of a fluke injury would be a shame. After all, it should be the goal of the playoff committee to put the four best teams into the postseason; not the four major-conference teams with the most victories.

2. Speaking of the Clemson-Syracuse game, I have to declare the utter disappointment I had in Syracuse quarterback Eric Dungey. Not that Dungey played poorly, or anything. On the other hand, Dungey had a great game.

My problem with Dungey? I learned that he’s not Tony Dungy’s son.

I wanted so much for Syracuse’s quarterback to be part of Tony Dungy’s lineage. You can’t imagine how distraught I was when I saw that extra “E” in Dungey’s name. That’s when I knew he wasn’t related to Tony Dungy.

Now, you might be scratching your head, wondering why I thought Eric Dungey, who is white, is related to Tony Dungy, who is obviously black. Uhh… have you not watched This is Us? It was clearly a possibility that Eric Dungey was abandoned at a fire station, and a lovely, young couple adopted him, and raised him to be an upstanding gentleman who occasionally has nervous breakdowns.

Unfortunately, this never happened, and my dreams were crushed.

3. Last week, I called college football a pansy sport because they eject players for helmet-to-helmet hits. Little did I know that this was just the tip of the iceberg.

I saw something absolutely appalling in the South Carolina-Tennessee game. In the third quarter, the Gamecocks, down 9-3, sacked the Tennessee quarterback on third-and-long deep in his own territory. It would’ve forced a punt from near the end zone, which would’ve allowed South Carolina to take over with some great field position.

There was a flag, however. I initially thought it was an accidental, unfortunate face mask on the quarterback. Instead, it was something else. The official announced:

“Unsportsmanlike penalty on the defense. The player’s helmet came off, and he kept playing. That’s a 15-yard penalty. First down.”

Uhh… what!? They penalized a f***ing defensive player because he kept playing after his helmet popped off!? What the f***!?

I can’t believe it. I really can’t. How can that be any sort of penalty, let alone a 15-yarder to give an automatic first down? Oh, and by the way, the defensive player “kept playing” involved the guy taking two steps forward and half-heartedly joining in the sack, though he didn’t fall down, or anything. Old ladies walking in the park exert more energy than the guy did on that particular play.

It’s unreal that football has become such a sissy sport. I swear, if I didn’t write about football for a living, I’d stop watching college football all together. I get maybe penalizing the team five yards for this, but even that seems like a stretch.

Sadly, I feel like it’s just going to get worse. In 10 years, I bet you that players will be wearing bras for protection, and they’ll replace the footballs with balloons so that no one gets hurt.

MIAMI OFFENSE: I still can’t believe the Dolphins scored 20 points in a single half of action. They did this, of course, in a comeback against the Falcons, who were up 17-0 at intermission. Jay Cutler played well and enthusiastically, but it was the ground attack that did all of the work. Miami’s offensive line, which hasn’t been able to block all year, pushed around Atlanta’s front, just as the Bills did prior to the bye. The result was the Falcons surrendering 139 rushing yards in a shocking loss.

Was Miami’s improved blocking a fluke? A result of battling a poor defense? Perhaps it was the latter, but Mike Pouncey’s injury had something to do with it as well. Pouncey, as I’ve mentioned countless times this year, is a shell of his former self because he needs hip surgery. Pouncey suffered an injury versus Atlanta, which proved to be a blessing in disguise because backup center Jake Brendel was so much better. I wouldn’t be surprised if the Dolphins continued to ride Brendel until Pouncey fully recovered.

This is not good news for the Jets, who have struggled to stop the run all year, surrendering 119 or more rushing yards to four of their six opponents. One of the two exceptions happened to be the Dolphins, who mustered only 21 yards on 14 attempts. Things will be much different this time with Brendel at the pivot. Jay Ajayi’s great running will open more opportunities for Cutler, who needs all the help he can get, considering his pass protection is still poor and DeVante Parker could miss this game.

NEW YORK OFFENSE: I’m sure the Jets wish they could find a solid center off their bench because they desperately need one. The entire interior offensive line is atrocious, which makes me wonder what in the world they’re going to do to block Ndamkukong Suh. It’s not much better at tackle, either. William Hayes and Cameron Wake figure to feast on the Jets’ exterior blockers.

This will make it much more difficult for Josh McCown to move the chains than it was for him against New England. McCown threw for 350 yards on the Patriots, which apparently is not very difficult this year. New England has zero pass rush and poor play in the secondary. The Dolphins struggle on the back end, but they can certainly get to the quarterback, so McCown will be less effective this week.

That said, I could see the Jets moving the ball on occasion. Miami is very weak versus tight ends and pass-catching running backs, so I like Austin Seferian-Jenkins and Matt Forte to pick up some first downs. I’m not sure it’ll be enough, however.

RECAP: I don’t trust the Dolphins, despite what I said about Brendel, the pass rush, and Ajayi likely having a big game. I just can’t bring myself to even pick Cutler as a favorite. That, and the Dolphins have a Thursday game coming up.

That said, I could see Miami being focused for this game because the Jets demolished them in Week 3. This is definitely a revenge situation. Plus, I think New York is getting too much credit for playing closely to New England. The Patriots aren’t great anymore; their defense stinks, so McCown’s performance shouldn’t have been surprising.

I’m reluctantly going to pick the Jets. I think this game actually lands on three, so I’d like Miami at -2.5. At +3 +100, the underdog makes a bit more sense.

THURSDAY THOUGHTS: I said on the podcast that I was going to pick the Dolphins. Well, I changed my mind again. I’m sticking with the Jets. As you can see, I’m torn on this game, so I’m definitely not betting it.

SATURDAY NOTES: You know how I wrote that Miami’s running game worked so much better last week because Jake Brendel replaced an injured Mike Pouncey? Well, Pouncey was a full participant in Friday’s practice, so he’ll apparently start over Brendel, which is crazy because Pouncey needs hip surgery! The Dolphins, likely missing DeVante Parker, are too stupid to bet on as favorites, but I don’t want to wager on the Jets either.

FINAL THOUGHTS: Everyone is saying how it’s great news that Mike Pouncey is back in the lineup, which is just mind-boggling because Jake Brendel was better than him. The Dolphins don’t appear to know what they are doing, and I would bet on the Jets if they weren’t horrible.

The Psychology. Edge: Jets.

The Dolphins are coming off a comeback victory as huge underdogs in Atlanta. Now, they have to play the Jets as home favorites before taking the field again on Thursday. The Dolphins, however, could be focused on getting revenge for a blowout loss to the Jets in Week 3.

The Vegas. Edge: None.
Equal action.

Percentage of money on Miami: 56% (15,000 bets)

The Trends. Edge: Jets.

History: Road Team has won 13 of the last non-London 19 meetings.

Underdog is 78-46 ATS in the Dolphins’ last 124 games.

Dolphins are 7-22 ATS as favorites of 3.5 or more since 2008.

Dolphins are 6-10 ATS as a favorite coming off a SU win as an underdog since 2007.

Jay Cutler is 46-76 ATS if you exclude Monday Night Football.

Opening Line: Dolphins -3.5.

Opening Total: 38.5.

Weather: .

Week 7 NFL Pick: Dolphins 16, Jets 14
Jets +3 (0 Units) — Push; $0
Under 39.5 (0.5 Units) — Incorrect; -$55
Dolphins 31, Jets 28

Tampa Bay Buccaneers (2-3) at Buffalo Bills (3-2)
Line: Bills by 3. Total: 45.5.
Las Vegas Hilton Advance Point Spread: Bills -2.
Walt’s Calculated Line: Bills -2.
Sunday, Oct 22, 1:00 PM
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The Game. Edge: Bills.

If you’ve followed this site for a while, you might remember that I like to respond to my spam mails. It all started six years ago, when a man named Jon Wire from the “United Bank of Africoan” promised me an ATM card of some sort, so I responded as a man named Mister Compassion Chuck Norris, who was raised by wolves. The following season, I received e-mails from Richard Held and Loon Bruce, who told me I won a Facebook Award, which comes with a “lump sum pay out of (750,000.00 GBP).” Pretending to be Matthew Millen Kim, I sent out my application and fake money.

I’ve been messing around with spammers ever since, pretending to be Aaron Hernandez, Tom Brady and Walter White. I’ll have new answers to Spam Mails here, so check them out if you want to see me screw with spammers!

TAMPA BAY OFFENSE: There’s no line on this game at the moment because Jameis Winston’s status is unknown. Winston suffered a sprained AC joint against the Cardinals, and while he tried to warm up to reenter the game in the second half, it’s sounding like he’ll either be out or limited this week. He’s currently considered day to day, but he could be yet another signal-caller who returns from an injury way too early.

It would be OK if Winston got to battle a soft defense, but the Bills have the personnel to make things very difficult for him. Jerry Hughes is going to be impossible for inept left tackle Donovan Smith to block, and I can’t imagine right guard J.R. Sweezy keeping Marcell Dareus out of the backfield either. Buffalo’s secondary, which has been exceptional for most of the year, should be able to limit Mike Evans and DeSean Jackson.

The Buccaneers will attempt to establish Doug Martin, but it doesn’t seem as though they’ll be successful in that regard. The Bills have surrendered more than 69 rushing yards to just two of their five opponents this year, and only one, the Falcons, hit triple digits. Martin looks great this year, but Tampa’s blocking isn’t very good.

BUFFALO OFFENSE: With Winston either out or hurt, Tampa Bay’s defense will have to carry the team this week. The unit will have to bounce back off an embarrassing showing in which Adrian Peterson ran all over them, and Carson Palmer didn’t fire a single incompletion until the third quarter.

The good news for the Buccaners is that they’ll likely have Kwon Alexander back on the field for the first time since Week 2. All of their linebackers are certain to play, which will be huge for their chances of stopping LeSean McCoy as a pass-catcher out of the backfield. Putting the clamps on him on the ground is a different story, though Tampa Bay will be able to commit more players to the box this week without getting torched.

The Buccaneers paid the price for this on Sunday, as Carson Palmer took advantage of Tampa’s inability to stop the run by firing passes to his talented receivers. Tyrod Taylor doesn’t have those. He’s missing Charles Clay, who was his best receiving threat. Even though Vernon Hargreaves has been atrocious, I can’t see Andre Holmes and Zay Jones getting open very much in this game.

RECAP: I can’t really post a pick on this game yet. I wanted to bet the Buccaneers, as they seemed like a nice buy-low candidate, but I can’t really do that now with Winston banged up. Winston is unlikely to be 100 percent, meaning the Bills, who are coming off a bye, could cover the spread if Winston is very limited. If, however, Ryan Fitzpatrick suits up, and this spread is inflated as a result, I may take Tampa. Check back later, or follow me @walterfootball for updates.

THURSDAY THOUGHTS: There’s still no line available, as Jameis Winston is going to test his shoulder out on Friday.

SATURDAY NOTES: Jameis Winston will start this week, as this seems like another instance of a quarterback returning from injury way too early. I’d like the Buccaneers a lot if Winston were 100 percent, but I’m not sure that’s going to be the case. It’s just a big question mark, so I’m not going to wager on this contest. I’m picking the Buccaneers for zero units.

FINAL THOUGHTS: The public is pounding the Bills, so it’s suspicious that this line hasn’t moved off -3. Again, I’d really like the Buccaneers if I had faith in Jameis Winston’s shoulder.

The Psychology. Edge: None.
No edge found.

The Vegas. Edge: Buccaneers.

No one wants to bet on the Buccaneers after seeing them against Arizona.

Percentage of money on Buffalo: 69% (2,000 bets)

The Trends. Edge: .

Road Team is 78-47 ATS in Buccaneers games since 2009.

Opening Line: Bills -3.

Opening Total: 44.

Weather: .

Week 7 NFL Pick: Bills 20, Buccaneers 19
Buccaneers +3 (0 Units) — Push; $0
Under 45.5 (0 Units) — Incorrect; $0
Bills 30, Buccaneers 27

Carolina Panthers (4-2) at Chicago Bears (2-4)
Line: Panthers by 3. Total: 40.
Las Vegas Hilton Advance Point Spread: Panthers -4.5.
Walt’s Calculated Line: Panthers -2.
Sunday, Oct 22, 1:00 PM
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The Game. Edge: .

Video of the Week: Troller Marty Millen sent over this video of creepy dudes from the 80s looking for women:

I wish they’d post an updated video, detailing which of these dudes actually got laid. My guess is none, though the guy whose favorite food is pizza might have had a shot.

CHICAGO OFFENSE: There’s a major injury in this game that isn’t keeping the spread from being off the board. That would be Luke Kuechly’s concussion. There was some fake news Sunday about Kuechly being cleared, but that hasn’t been the case. Kuechly was at practice Tuesday, but he didn’t do anything there. It’s unclear if he can pass protocol by Sunday, but given his extensive concussion history, it shouldn’t surprise anyone if he has to miss this game.

As we saw Thursday night, Carolina’s defense is night and day without Kuechly. The Panthers surrendered their second-highest rushing total of the season to Philadelphia because of Kuechly’s absence, which is not a good omen for this game. The Bears run the ball extremely well with Jordan Howard and Tarik Cohen now that their entire offensive line is healthy. Cohen is obviously an effective receiver out of the backfield as well, and he’ll have a plus matchup if Kuechly is missing.

This will all change if Kuechly returns to the field. The Panthers will be much better versus the rush, which will force Mitchell Trubisky to beat them with his horrible receivers. Carolina doesn’t have the best secondary, but as bad as some of the Panthers’ defensive backs are, the Chicago receivers are that much worse.

CAROLINA OFFENSE: It was the same old story for the Panthers on Thursday night. Whenever they’ve battled teams with stout defensive lines, they’ve lost because their blocking is poor. Ryan Kalil could return to the lineup, however, which would be a huge boon for the offense, especially against a ferocious Chicago front. It’ll be extremely difficult to block Akiem Hicks without Kalil. Meanwhile, Pernell McPhee and Leonard Floyd should have their way with Matt Kalil and Daryl Williams.

Given that Cam Newton is once again unlikely to have much time in the pocket, he could sail some bad passes again. Chicago’s secondary has had its ups and downs this season, but it’s currently experiencing an “up,” as cornerback Kyle Fuller had a tremendous performance versus Baltimore. We’ll see if that can continue, but perhaps Fuller is finally living up to his first-round billing. If so, he should do a good job on Kelvin Benjamin.

One thing I’d like to see out of Carolina this week is increased usage for Christian McCaffrey. For whatever reason, the coaching staff isn’t using McCaffrey enough, opting instead to waste downs by giving Jonathan Stewart the ball for ineffective carries. With nine days off, it could be possible that the Panthers might have cooked something up for McCaffrey, though I can’t say I’m very confident that this has happened.

RECAP: The spread I came up with is the one that’s currently available everywhere. That said, my number is with Kuechly in the lineup. If Kuechly sits out, I may bet a couple of units on the Bears, as Carolina is a completely different team without its stud linebacker.

For now, I’ll just be on the Bears for zero units. They’ve played extremely well at home, upsetting the Steelers and nearly knocking off the Falcons and Vikings. They’re a better team than people give them credit for, so even though Carolina is coming off extra rest, I still like Chicago to cover.

THURSDAY THOUGHTS: Luke Kuechly still hasn’t practiced, which is obviously bad news for the Panthers. If Kuechly is ruled out, I may bet a unit or two on Chicago.

SATURDAY NOTES: Luke Kuechly is officially out, so I think there’s some good value with the Bears. I wish we were getting a better number, but +3 +110 at Bovada is fine. I’ll take Chicago for a unit.

FINAL THOUGHTS: There’s sharp money coming in on the Bears for the first time all week. Chicago has gone from -3 +105 to -3 -120 in many books, though the juice is still -105 at Bovada.

The Psychology. Edge: None.
No edge found.

The Vegas. Edge: Bears.

People are still favoring the Panthers.

Percentage of money on Carolina: 77% (5,000 bets)

The Trends. Edge: Panthers.

Cam Newton is 21-15 ATS off a loss as long as he’s not favored by 7+.

Bears are 12-19 ATS at home since 2013.

Opening Line: Panthers -4.

Opening Total: 41.

Weather: Rain, mild wind.

Week 7 NFL Pick: Panthers 23, Bears 21
Bears +3 -105 (1 Unit) — Correct; +$100
Over 40 (0 Units) — Incorrect; $0
Bears 17, Panthers 3

New Orleans Saints (3-2) at Green Bay Packers (4-2)
Line: Saints by 4. Total: 46.
Las Vegas Hilton Advance Point Spread: Packers -6.5 (Rodgers).
Walt’s Calculated Line: Saints -3.
Sunday, Oct 22, 1:00 PM
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The Game. Edge: Saints.

Last year, on the Adventures of Tom Brady’s Haircuts, Tom Brady was elected as the President of the United States, as it was revealed that he was the only candidate running because both Donald Trump and Hillary Clinton were figments of his imagination. In doing so, Tom Brady saved his organization, the Two-Handed Gang, from the Latin Kings. Everything was going swimmingly for Brady while in the White House, until he received a telegram from Bill Belichick, requiring his presence in Foxboro…

To see the story behind this one, check out the new Adventures of Tom Brady’s Haircuts!

GREEN BAY OFFENSE: Aaron Rodgers is probably finished for the year, which is obviously a crushing blow to the Packers’ Super Bowl, and even playoff chances. It didn’t help that Brett Hundley struggled so much in Minnesota. Hundley was just 18-of-33 for 157 yards, one touchdown and three interceptions.

That said, there’s some reason to believe Hundley will be better in his first career start. Hundley was thrust into action without warning last week, and he had to battle one of the best defenses in the NFL. For this game, Hundley will have an entire week to prepare, and he’ll be taking on a defense that isn’t very good. The Saints have been better on this side of the ball this year, thanks to rookie cornerback Marshon Lattimore’s terrific play. However, New Orleans still has some glaring liabilities defensively, so perhaps the Packers can game plan to exploit those. Plus, it’s not like Hundley is some sort of bum. He’s a fifth-round pick who had second-day talent. The Packers have been grooming him to be a No. 2 quarterback for three years. They trust him to be a somewhat effective replacement for Rodgers, and I think he’ll bounce back with a much better performance.

How effective Hundley will be depends on the status of Green Bay’s offensive line. Left tackle David Bakhtiari suffering another injury last week hurts, as a reserve tackle won’t have much success against defensive end Alex Okafor. Cameron Jordan, who has been a monster this season, should have his way with banged-up right tackle Bryan Bulaga as well. Hundley will have to release the ball quickly, but I think he should have success attacking the Saints’ poor linebackers.

NEW ORLEANS OFFENSE: Green Bay’s defense will have to step up big time in the wake of Rodgers’ injury. They have the front seven to do this. Mike Daniels is one of the top 3-4 defensive ends in the NFL, while nose tackle Kenny Clark has emerged as a force in his second NFL season. The Saints don’t block well in the interior – guard Andrus Peat sucks, while center Max Unger is having the worst year of his career – so Daniels and Clark will have tons of success. I also like Clay Matthews’ chances against rookie right tackle Ryan Ramczyk.

The Packers, who have contained the run fairly well since Daniels returned to the field, will do a good job of clamping down on Mark Ingram as a runner. However, Ingram and Alvin Kamara as receivers out of the backfield will present problems for the linebacking corps. Blake Martinez has been solid this year, but Jake Ryan has been atrocious, and he’ll prove to be a big liability once again.

Speaking of liabilities, the Packers have tons of those in the secondary. Their cornerbacks are anemic, so Michael Thomas will have a rebound performance. How much Drew Brees will be able to torch the Packer secondary depends on whether or not Morgan Burnett returns to the field. Burnett, a Pro Bowl safety, was really missed last week with a hamstring injury.

RECAP: When the Packers lost Rodgers in 2013, they predictably struggled. They covered just one point spread without him. However, Hundley is better than the bum quarterbacks Green Bay possessed four years ago. The Packers selected him in the fifth round because they liked his talent, and they’re still confident in his abilities. With a week to prepare against a mediocre defense, Hundley will be much better this week.

With that in mind, this spread is way too high. I personally made it New Orleans -4, but then readjusted to -3 because I thought I was overreacting. A line of -6 is absurd!

I love the prospect of buying low on an underrated commodity and selling high on a team that just scored in the 50s at home. The Saints are a much different team on the road; they’re just 6-13 against the spread when favored by four or more in away games this decade. Their offense just isn’t as explosive on grass, and I have to imagine that they’ll be overconfident entering this contest. That could give the Packers an opportunity to pull an upset. At the very least, they should cover, and I’m willing to wager three units on it.

THURSDAY THOUGHTS: Look at all this sharp money on the Packers! I thought this line might keep moving up, but the pros bet Green Bay down to +4.5, perhaps because they saw that both David Bakhtiari and Bryan Bulaga practiced in pads. I’m going to have to drop this to two units as a result. I still like the Packers, but not as much as I did at +6.

SATURDAY NOTES: Morgan Burnett is going to be out, but David Bakhtiari and Bryan Bulaga will suit up. That’s great news for the Packers, as Brett Hundley needs all the help he can get. The sharps have been all over Green Bay this week.

FINAL THOUGHTS: The Packers are looking like the No. 1 sharp bet of the week. This spread has fallen from +6.5 to +3.5 in most books, though Bovada still has +4 available. I still like the Packers for three units, especially with the two tackles being active.

The Psychology. Edge: None.
No edge found.

The Vegas. Edge: Packers.
No surprise that most people are betting the Saints.

Percentage of money on New Orleans: 62% (21,000 bets)

The Trends. Edge: Packers.

Drew Brees is 50-31 ATS as an underdog.

Drew Brees is 40-27 ATS off back-to-back wins.

Saints are 6-13 ATS as road favorites of 4 or more since 2010.

Packers are 36-21 ATS at home since 2010.

Packers are 6-1 ATS as home underdogs since 2007.

Opening Line: Saints -4.

Opening Total: 47.5.

Weather: .

Week 7 NFL Pick: Saints 27, Packers 24
Packers +4 (3 Units) — Incorrect; -$330
Over 46 (0 Units) — Incorrect; $0
Saints 26, Packers 17

Arizona Cardinals (3-3) vs. Los Angeles Rams (4-2)
Line: Rams by 3. Total: 46.5.
Las Vegas Hilton Advance Point Spread: Rams -3.
Walt’s Calculated Line: Rams -4.
Sunday, Oct 22, 1:00 PM
At London
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The Game. Edge: .

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ARIZONA OFFENSE: So… what the hell happened last week? Adrian Peterson looked absolutely dead in New Orleans in September and Minnesota last year. He was given opportunities to carry the ball, yet he did nothing with those chances. Yet, last week against the Buccaneers, he exploded and looked like his old self. How did this happen?

It seems to me that it was a confluence of several factors. Peterson was dead set to determine that he wasn’t done, so he used whatever energy he had left to have a terrific performance. How long this lasts is anyone’s guess, but it shouldn’t surprise anyone if he keeps it going for several weeks, or if he regresses this Sunday. Also, the Buccaneers slacked off, thinking they could just show up in Arizona and win. Meanwhile, left tackle D.J. Humphries’ return to the lineup proved to be a huge difference. Humphries replaced the ineffective John Wetzel and actually provided the Cardinals with a talented blocker.

No one is talking about Humphries, but his return is huge for the Cardinals. He’ll be able to block Robert Quinn, which is something. Keeping Aaron Donald and Michael Brockers is another story, so Arizona shouldn’t have as much success running the ball. Excluding Leonard Fournette’s long touchdown run, the Rams have done a solid job versus the rush the past three weeks, so this will be a good test for Peterson, whose ability to pound the rock will affect Carson Palmer’s performance. The Rams could use Lamarcus Joyner back to help defend Larry Fitzgerald, but he hasn’t been available since Week 3.

LOS ANGELES OFFENSE: The Rams, of course, have a great running back of their own, as Todd Gurley continues to dominate after struggling last year. Gurley may suffer a setback this week, however, as the Cardinals have been exceptional versus the run this season. They’ve surrendered more than 92 rushing yards only once, and that was in a blowout loss to the Eagles. They limited Ezekiel Elliott and the Cowboys to just 80 yards on the ground, so they should have success versus Gurley.

Arizona’s weakness defensively has been getting to the quarterback and stopping the deep ball. The Rams will make it difficult for the Cardinals to accomplish the first goal. They have a much better offensive line this year, as stud left tackle Andrew Whitworth matches up well versus Arizona’s only consistent pass-rusher, Chandler Jones. No one else brings any consistent heat, so Jared Goff should have plenty of time to find his targets.

Goff’s supposed No. 1 receiver, Sammy Watkins, has barely done anything since his amazing Thursday night performance versus the 49ers. His matchup this week looks dubious on paper, as he has to battle Patrick Peterson. However, Peterson may not be himself because of a balky quad. He actually left in the second half of last week’s game, and soft-tissue injuries of that sort tend to linger. That said, even if Peterson is healthier this Sunday, Jared Goff should still be able to connect with his athletic tight ends, a position the Cardinals struggle to contain.

RECAP: Are the new-old Cardinals for real? Can Peterson keep this up? Has Palmer stopped looking decrepit? The Cardinals caught the Buccaneers off-guard last week, but now they have to beat a divisional opponent that will certainly be focused for this matchup.

I personally need to see it again. I have to see Adrian Peterson trample a defense that isn’t half-asleep. I want to see Palmer excel behind an offensive line that isn’t mostly a train wreck.

The Rams are the better team, and I’m going to pick them to cover despite Adrian Peterson’s knowledge of London. I just don’t trust the Cardinals yet, but if they beat the Rams impressively, I’ll certainly reconsider my stance on them. I just wish we were getting more value with the Rams. The Cardinals crushed the Buccaneers, yet this line moved up from the advance spread of -3? What’s up with that?

THURSDAY THOUGHTS: This spread has moved down to +3, thanks to public action on the Cardinals. Again, I still need to see Arizona do what it did in Week 6 again versus a team that’s paying attention to them. I like the Rams a bit more at -3, but not enough to bet them, especially at -115 juice.

SATURDAY NOTES: Trumaine Johnson and Lamarcus Joyner have been removed from the injury report, so the Rams will have their secondary at full strength for the first time since the opening quarter of Week 3. This is not enough for me to bet the Rams, but I like the under. It’s worth noting that e-mailer David H., who lives in England, informed me that it’s going to be very windy game. That means the under should hit.

FINAL THOUGHTS: The wind isn’t very intense, per the weather report. I’m not going to bet the under, after all. As for the side, I’m not sure who to go with. The sharps took the Cardinals at +3.5, but have shown no interest betting this game at this current line.

The Psychology. Edge: None.
No edge found.

The Vegas. Edge: None.
Equal action.

Percentage of money on Arizona: 56% (17,000 bets)

The Trends. Edge: .

History: Cardinals have won 15 of the last 21 meetings.

Opening Line: Rams -3.5.

Opening Total: 47.5.

Weather: .

Week 7 NFL Pick: Rams 26, Cardinals 20
Rams -3 (0 Units) — Correct; $0
Under 46.5 (0 Units) — Correct; $0
Rams 33, Cardinals 0

Week 7 NFL Picks – Late Games
Dallas at San Francisco, Seattle at NY Giants, Denver at LA Chargers, Cincinnati at Pittsburgh, Atlanta at New England, Washington at Philadelphia

Prop/Teaser/Parlay Picks
A list of some of my favorite team/player prop picks this week
(Offense & defensive ROY picks to be counted whenever winners are announced.) Picks carried over on a week-to-week basis will be in black.

Prop/teaser/parlay picks posted in Week 7 NFL Picks – Late Games

NFL Picks - Nov. 20

2025 NFL Mock Draft - Nov. 20

NFL Power Rankings - Nov. 19

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Last Week's NFL Picks Against The Spread (Week 12, 2024): 11-3 (+$2,020)
Last Week's 2-3 Unit NFL Picks (Week 12, 2024): 3-1 (+$580)
Last Week's 4-5 Unit NFL Picks (Week 12, 2024): 3-0 (+$1,400)
Last Week Over-Under (Week 12, 2024): 6-8 ($0)
Last Week's Prop/ML/Teaser/Parlay Picks (Week 12, 2024): +$905

2024 NFL Picks of the Month: 1-3, 25.0% (-$1,365)

2024 Season NFL Picks Against The Spread: 89-82-6, 52.0% (-$2,545)
2024 Season 2-3 Unit NFL Picks: 22-26-1, 45.8% (-$600)
2024 Season 4-5 Unit NFL Picks: 18-17, 51.4% (-$155)
2024 Season Over-Under: 82-82-2, 50.0% (+$95)
2024 Season Prop/ML/Teaser/Parlay Picks: +$740

1999 Season NFL Picks Against The Spread: 27-41-3 (39.7%)
2000 Season NFL Picks Against The Spread: 128-123-8 (51.0%)
2001 Season NFL Picks Against The Spread: 127-122-7 (51.0%)
2002 Season NFL Picks Against The Spread: 123-136-7 (47.5%)
2003 Season NFL Picks Against The Spread: 146-126-8 (53.7%)
2004 Season NFL Picks Against The Spread: 157-123-8 (56.1%)
2005 Season NFL Picks Against The Spread: 156-126-11 (55.3%)
2006 Season NFL Picks Against The Spread: 151-135-9 (52.8%)
2007 Season NFL Picks Against The Spread: 162-135-10, 54.5% (+$3,585)
2008 Season NFL Picks Against The Spread: 148-140-7, 51.4% (+$6,105)
2009 Season NFL Picks Against The Spread: 151-124-9, 54.9% (+$4,235)
2010 Season NFL Picks Against The Spread: 144-131-8, 52.4% (+$5,880)
2011 Season NFL Picks Against The Spread: 137-133-12, 50.7% (-$1,335)
2012 Season NFL Picks Against The Spread: 130-145-8, 47.3% (-$7,445)
2013 Season NFL Picks Against The Spread: 144-131-8, 52.4% (+$7,825)
2014 Season NFL Picks Against The Spread: 143-133-7, 51.8% (-$1,885)
2015 Season NFL Picks Against The Spread: 134-138-12, 49.3% (-$3,215)
2016 Season NFL Picks Against The Spread: 148-127-10, 53.8% (+$780)
2017 Season NFL Picks Against The Spread: 137-140-8, 49.5% (-$4,300)
2018 Season NFL Picks Against The Spread: 140-134-14, 51.3% (+$845)
2019 Season NFL Picks Against The Spread: 149-128-9, 53.6% (+$1,200)
2020 Season NFL Picks Against The Spread: 138-124-7, 52.7% (+$9,350)
2021 Season NFL Picks Against The Spread: 153-141-2, 51.9% (+$210)
2022 Season NFL Picks Against The Spread: 154-134-8, 53.5% (+$9,860)
2023 Season NFL Picks Against The Spread: 144-141-7, 50.5% (-$7,285)

2002 Season 2-3 Unit NFL Picks: 41-49-2 (45.6%)
2003 Season 2-3 Unit NFL Picks: 52-51-2 (50.5%)
2004 Season 2-3 Unit NFL Picks: 65-44-3 (59.6%)
2005 Season 2-3 Unit NFL Picks: 77-61-1 (55.8%)
2006 Season 2-3 Unit NFL Picks: 65-61-4 (51.6%)
2007 Season 2-3 Unit NFL Picks: 83-59-5, 58.5% (+$4,110)
2008 Season 2-3 Unit NFL Picks: 44-57-3, 43.6% (-$3,510)
2009 Season 2-3 Unit NFL Picks: 49-35-3, 58.3% (+$2,260)
2010 Season 2-3 Unit NFL Picks: 51-38-4, 57.3% (+$3,180)
2011 Season 2-3 Unit NFL Picks: 44-51-3, 46.3% (-$2,715)
2012 Season 2-3 Unit NFL Picks: 45-50-2, 47.4% (-$2,130)
2013 Season 2-3 Unit NFL Picks: 38-42, 47.5% (-$2,890)
2015 Season 2-3 Unit NFL Picks: 47-44-1, 51.6% (-$820)
2016 Season 2-3 Unit NFL Picks: 42-35-3, 54.5% (+$475)
2017 Season 2-3 Unit NFL Picks: 32-40-3, 43.8% (-$2,395)
2018 Season 2-3 Unit NFL Picks: 52-41-2, 55.9% (+$2,670)
2019 Season 2-3 Unit NFL Picks: 44-36-2, 55.0% (+$655)
2020 Season 2-3 Unit NFL Picks: 47-43-3, 52.2% (-$1,965)
2021 Season 2-3 Unit NFL Picks: 50-50, 50.0% (-$1,570)
2022 Season 2-3 Unit NFL Picks: 56-44-2, 56.0% (+$1,860)
2023 Season 2-3 Unit NFL Picks: 44-40-3, 52.4% (+$285)

2002 Season 4-5 Unit NFL Picks: 11-12 (47.8%)
2003 Season 4-5 Unit NFL Picks: 16-13-1 (55.2%)
2004 Season 4-5 Unit NFL Picks: 18-11 (62.1%)
2005 Season 4-5 Unit NFL Picks: 25-22-1 (53.2%)
2006 Season 4-5 Unit NFL Picks: 21-29-1 (42.0%)
2007 Season 4-5 Unit NFL Picks: 35-30-2, 53.8% (+$420)
2008 Season 4-5 Unit NFL Picks: 39-26-2, 60.0% (+$4,055)
2009 Season 4-5 Unit NFL Picks: 29-26, 52.7% (+$330)
2010 Season 4-5 Unit NFL Picks: 32-22, 59.3% (+$4,790)
2011 Season 4-5 Unit NFL Picks: 14-14, 50.0% (-$1,260)
2012 Season 4-5 Unit NFL Picks: 14-21, 40.0% (-$3,650)
2013 Season 4-5 Unit NFL Picks: 17-9-3, 65.4% (+$2,970)
2015 Season 4-5 Unit NFL Picks: 17-16-2, 51.5% (-$1,120)
2016 Season 4-5 Unit NFL Picks: 21-22-5, 48.8% (-$1,465)
2017 Season 4-5 Unit NFL Picks: 20-22-1, 47.6% (-$1,595)
2018 Season 4-5 Unit NFL Picks: 27-32-1, 45.8% (-$4,735)
2019 Season 4-5 Unit NFL Picks: 37-27-2, 57.8% (+$2,185)
2020 Season 4-5 Unit NFL Picks: 37-22-1, 62.7% (+$5,515)
2021 Season 4-5 Unit NFL Picks: 32-32-1, 50.0% (-$725)
2022 Season 4-5 Unit NFL Picks: 41-30-1, 57.8% (+$3,725)
2023 Season 4-5 Unit NFL Picks: 32-27-1, 54.2% (-$1,310)

2001 Season Over-Under: 3-2 (60.0%)
2002 Season Over-Under: 121-91-3 (57.1%)
2003 Season Over-Under: 126-132-2 (48.8%)
2004 Season Over-Under: 139-124-4 (52.9%)
2005 Season Over-Under: 117-145-4 (44.7%)
2006 Season Over-Under: 129-132-5 (49.4%)
2007 Season Over-Under: 136-145-3, 48.4% (-$1,900)
2008 Season Over-Under: 137-125-6, 52.3% (+$860)
2009 Season Over-Under: 128-135-4, 48.7% (-$3,195)
2010 Season Over-Under: 128-135-5, 48.7% (-$5)
2011 Season Over-Under: 131-131-5, 50.0% (+$135)
2012 Season Over-Under: 125-121-5, 50.8% (+$30)
2013 Season Over-Under: 132-130-5, 50.4% (-$340)
2015 Season Over-Under: 143-119-5, 54.6% ($0)
2016 Season Over-Under: 123-141-1, 46.6% (+$95)
2017 Season Over-Under: 136-139-2, 49.5% (+$640)
2018 Season Over-Under: 118-128-3, 48.0% (-$225)
2019 Season Over-Under: 126-133-4, 48.6% (-$50)
2020 Season Over-Under: 141-122-6, 53.6% ($0)
2021 Season Over-Under: 132-151-3, 46.6% ($0)
2022 Season Over-Under: 133-149-2, 47.2% (-$225)
2023 Season Over-Under: 145-135-3, 51.8% (+$200)

2007 Season Prop/ML/Teaser/Parlay Picks: +$1,035
2008 Season Prop/ML/Teaser/Parlay Picks: +$1,775
2009 Season Prop/ML/Teaser/Parlay Picks: +$865
2010 Season Prop/ML/Teaser/Parlay Picks: -$200
2011 Season Prop/ML/Teaser/Parlay Picks: +$590
2012 Season Prop/ML/Teaser/Parlay Picks: -$1,685
2013 Season Prop/ML/Teaser/Parlay Picks: +$2,245
2015 Season Prop/ML/Teaser/Parlay Picks: -$855
2016 Season Prop/ML/Teaser/Parlay Picks: -$275
2017 Season Prop/ML/Teaser/Parlay Picks: -$510
2018 Season Prop/ML/Teaser/Parlay Picks: +$1,495
2019 Season Prop/ML/Teaser/Parlay Picks: -$1,715
2020 Season Prop/ML/Teaser/Parlay Picks: +$4,975
2021 Season Prop/ML/Teaser/Parlay Picks: +$3,455
2022 Season Prop/ML/Teaser/Parlay Picks: +$5,720
2023 Season Prop/ML/Teaser/Parlay Picks: -$2,565

2006 NFL Picks of the Month: 3-3 (50%)
2007 NFL Picks of the Month: 3-3, 50.0% (-$400)
2008 NFL Picks of the Month: 6-1, 85.7% (+$3,720)
2009 NFL Picks of the Month: 3-2, 60.0% (+$640)
2010 NFL Picks of the Month: 2-4, 33.3% (-$1,810)
2011 NFL Picks of the Month: 5-2, 71.4% (+$1,870)
2012 NFL Picks of the Month: 3-2, 60.0% (+$560)
2013 NFL Picks of the Month: 6-0, 100% (+$3,900)
2014 NFL Picks of the Month: 2-4, 33.3% (-$1,350)
2015 NFL Picks of the Month: 3-3, 50.0% (-$100)
2016 NFL Picks of the Month: 5-1, 83.3% (+$2,780)
2017 NFL Picks of the Month: 4-2, 66.7% (+$1,040)
2018 NFL Picks of the Month: 4-3, 57.1% (-$640)
2019 NFL Picks of the Month: 3-3-1, 50.0% (-$625)
2020 NFL Picks of the Month: 3-2, 60.0% (+$665)
2021 NFL Picks of the Month: 2-3, 40.0% (-$920)
2022 NFL Picks of the Month: 3-4, 42.9% (-$1,615)
2023 NFL Picks of the Month: 2-5, 28.6% (-$2,550)

Career NFL Picks Against The Spread: 3,510-3,234-202, 52.0% (+$19,125)
Career 2-3 Unit NFL Picks: 1,129-1,011-57 (52.8%)
Career 4-5 Unit NFL Picks: 571-502-25 (53.2%)
Career Over-Under: 2,941-2,916-76 (50.2%)
Career Second-Half NFL Picks: 23-16-1 (59.0%)
Career NFL Picks of the Month: 47-37-1 (56.0%)

My Team-by-Team ATS Record
This section shows how well I do when picking each team this year. The purpose is to see how well I read each team. Pushes are not displayed. Winning/losing streak in parentheses.

Cowboys: 6-3	Bears: 5-5	Bucs: 6-4	49ers: 6-4
Eagles: 5-5	Lions: 9-1	Falcons: 6-5	Cardinals: 8-2
Giants: 3-6	Packers: 6-3	Panthers: 4-6	Rams: 5-5
Redskins: 5-5	Vikings: 4-6	Saints: 5-6	Seahawks: 6-3

Bills: 4-7	Bengals: 2-9	Colts: 6-5	Broncos: 7-4
Dolphins: 4-6	Browns: 3-7	Jaguars: 3-7	Chargers: 6-3
Jets: 6-5	Ravens: 5-5	Texans: 5-6	Chiefs: 4-5
Patriots: 6-3	Steelers: 4-6	Titans: 6-3	Raiders: 5-5

Divisional: 21-23 (2011-23: 608-561)	2x Game Edge: 18-14 (2011-23: 401-387)	2x Motivation Edge: 31-25 (2011-23: 510-441)	2x Spread Edge: 21-30 (2011-23: 239-211)
2x Vegas Edge: 33-47 (2011-23: 448-446)	2x Trend Edge: 12-8 (2011-23: 321-293)	Double Edge: 13-16 (2011-23: 207-185)	Triple Edge: 4-8 (2011-23: 33-37)