NFL Picks Against the Spread: Week 8, 2017

NFL Picks (Preseason 2017): 9-10-1 (-$110)
NFL Picks (Week 1, 2017): 8-6-1 (+$135)
NFL Picks (Week 2, 2017): 9-7 (+$45)
NFL Picks (Week 3, 2017): 5-11 (-$425)
NFL Picks (Week 4, 2017): 5-11 (+$90)
NFL Picks (Week 5, 2017): 8-6 (+$1,080)
NFL Picks (Week 6, 2017): 6-8 (-$640)
NFL Picks (Week 7, 2017): 3-10-2 (-$2,180)

NFL Picks (2017): 53-69-4 (-$2,005)
NFL Picks (2016): 148-127-10 (+$1,055)
NFL Picks (2015): 133-138-10 (-$2,360)
NFL Picks (2014): 143-132-7 (-$1,115)
NFL Picks (2013): 144-131-8 (+$5,580)
NFL Picks (2012): 130-145-8 (-$5,760)
NFL Picks (2011): 137-133-12 (-$1,925)
NFL Picks (2010): 144-131-8 (+$6,080)
NFL Picks (2009): 151-124-9 (+$3,370)
NFL Picks (2008): 136-125-6 (+$4,330)
If you don’t quite understand the line, total or anything else, go to my Sports Betting FAQ.

Vegas betting action updated Oct. 30, 6:45 p.m. ET. Follow @walterfootball for updates.

Go to Week 8 NFL Picks – Early Games

Houston Texans (3-3) at Seattle Seahawks (4-2)
Line: Seahawks by 6. Total: 45.5.
Las Vegas Hilton Advance Point Spread: Seahawks -6.5.
Walt’s Calculated Line: Seahawks -3.5.
Sunday, Oct 29, 4:05 PM
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The Game. Edge: Seahawks.

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HOUSTON OFFENSE: The Texans are getting a potential major boost this week, as left tackle Duane Brown has ended his holdout. It’s unclear what sort of shape Brown is in, but he can’t possibly be worse than Chris Clark. His presence will be huge in this matchup, as he’ll be able to help Deshaun Watson against Seattle’s pass rush.

I actually think the Seattle pass rush might be the least of Watson’s concerns. The Seahawks have some tremendous play-makers in the back seven that could force Watson into some give-aways. Richard Sherman isn’t playing particularly well, so one of DeAndre Hopkins or Will Fuller will have some opportunities, but both of the safety and the primary linebackers could bait the rookie quarterback into a careless mistake.

It would help Watson if the Texans could run the ball, but the Seahawks have a dynamic ground defense that will keep Lamar Miller in check. Watson will be able to scramble on his own, but he won’t be able to count on Miller doing much.

SEATTLE OFFENSE: The Seahawks, of course will have pass-protection issues as well. Their line is atrocious, as we all know, and Jadeveon Clowney’s matchup against Rees Odhiambo will be easier than some of the battles Clowney had in his SEC days. Odhiambo is that bad. Unfortunately for the Texans, they don’t have J.J. Watt and Whitney Mercilus to take advantage of Seattle’s other liabilities, though I do think Brennan Scarlett should be able to beat right tackle Germain Ifedi on occasion.

Russell Wilson, however, will be able to escape pressure and make plays, as he tends to do. Wilson’s best option in this game would seem to be Jimmy Graham. The Texans allowed big performances to Rob Gronkowski and Travis Kelce, so if Graham can actually hold on to the ball this week, he should be in for a big afternoon.

Wilson could be Seattle’s leader in rushing yards; the Texans generally play ground attacks well, as rookie linebacker Zach Cunningham has thrived as someone who has enforced the run well. Besides, it’s not like the Seahawks can establish a consistent rushing attack anyway.

RECAP: The Texans opened +6, and I liked that quite a bit. Unfortunately, that line disappeared within hours, and it’s now either +5.5 or +5, depending on where you look. That, obviously, is much less appealing because six is such a key number, especially with the new overtime rules.

That said, I still like Houston a bit. Watson has a tough matchup against the Seattle defense, but I think he could have some success in the second half to perhaps get a back-door touchdown if he needs it. But I don’t think he’ll necessarily have to do that. The Seahawks’ spread is inflated because of price memory. How many great quarters has Seattle played this year? My count is three: the second half versus the Colts, and the fourth quarter at the Giants. That’s it. They beat the Rams, but were outplayed in that game, being outgained by 1.6 yards per play; Los Angeles may have won if Todd Gurley didn’t have that weird touchback fumble that easily could’ve been a touchdown.

I’m not saying the Seahawks are a bad team, or anything. I just don’t think they deserve to be favored by 5.5 over a quality opponent. I made this line Seattle -3.5, so I’m willing to wager on the Texans for a unit. Getting +6 would move this to 2-3 units, but I don’t think that spread is coming back, as the sharps were all over it.

THURSDAY THOUGHTS: Justin Britt could miss this game for the Seahawks, which is a huge deal because he’s Seattle’s only decent offensive lineman. I may increase my wager to two units, but I’ll stick with a unit for now. The sharps have not weighed in on this game yet.

SATURDAY NOTES (ON FRIDAY): I’m removing my unit from this game because of Bob McNair’s comments. I think what he said about the inmates running the prison could serve as a huge distraction for the Texans, so I’d like to avoid this situation.

SUNDAY MORNING NOTES: There was some sharp money on the Seahawks -5.5 following Bob McNair’s comments. Then, there was other sharp money on the Texans +6.5 from people fading an overreaction. I don’t really know what to make of all this, so I’ll just watch with some interest. I get the feeling that everything is overblown, but it’s not like I had a strong opinion on this game in the first place.

FINAL THOUGHTS: This spread has remained at six after some crazy movement on Friday night and Saturday. I’d like to bet the Texans, but they’re planning some pre-game protests, so I have to wonder if they’re focused at all for the task at hand. Then again, perhaps Bob McNair’s comments will motivate them. I don’t know, and I don’t see the point in guessing.

The Psychology. Edge: None.
No edge found.

The Vegas. Edge: None.
Equal action.

Percentage of money on Seattle: 58% (14,000 bets)

The Trends. Edge: Seahawks.

Seahawks are 42-21 ATS as home favorites since 2007.

Opening Line: Seahawks -6.

Opening Total: 43.

Weather: Partly cloudy, 60 degrees. Light wind.

Week 8 NFL Pick: Seahawks 17, Texans 13
Texans +6 (0 Units) — Correct; $0
Under 45.5 (0.5 Units) — Incorrect; -$55
Seahawks 41, Texans 38

Dallas Cowboys (3-3) at Washington Redskins (3-3)
Line: Cowboys by 3. Total: 46.
Las Vegas Hilton Advance Point Spread: Redskins -1.
Walt’s Calculated Line: Redskins -2.
Sunday, Oct 29, 4:25 PM
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The Game. Edge: None.

Emmitt on the Brink is back for Season 10 (I can’t believe this is the 10th year I’ve been doing this!) In Episode 7, Emmitt asks Eli Manning for the Rice of Passage. Meanwhile, Evil Emmitt recruits someone else for his mission.

Also, a reminder that Jerks of the Week for this week is up, so just click the link. This week’s jerks entry is Streaming Hipsters and CBS All-Access.

DALLAS OFFENSE: The Cowboys looked so explosive this past week. They scored 40 quite easily and probably could have reached 50 if they didn’t insert Cooper Rush into the game in the fourth quarter. Ezekiel Elliott rushed for a season-best 147 yards, while Dez Bryant broke a franchise record. Everything went so incredibly well for Dallas.

Then again, that was expected. The 49ers are probably the second-worst team in the NFL, and they have one of the worst defenses for sure. The Redskins will put forward much more resistance, particularly from their edge rush. Ryan Kerrigan, one of the best 3-4 outside linebackers in the conference, has a huge mismatch against right tackle La’el Collins. He’ll be able to put an incredible amount of pressure on Dak Prescott, who will be uncomfortable in the pocket, unlike last week. Prescott, when he’s not escaping, could hurry some throws into a secondary that could be welcoming back Josh Norman. It’s unclear if Norman will play, but he will practice this week. He’ll want to return to cover Dez Bryant for sure.

Of course, the Dallas scoring attack will run through Elliott. The second-year back trampled the hapless 49ers, but the Redskins won’t be so willing to relinquish yardage. Washington has surrendered more than 88 yards on the ground just once all year. The Redskins are strong up front, and unlike last year, Elliott doesn’t have the dominant blocking to help him.

WASHINGTON OFFENSE: Speaking of blocking, the Redskins lost two key linemen to injuries Monday night, as guard Brandon Scherff and right tackle Morgan Moses both left the game. However, there is good news, as both have said that they will play in this contest. It’s unclear if they’ll be 100 percent, but Scherff could be, as reports indicate that his malady isn’t very serious. Moses, meanwhile, rolled both ankles, but he should be ready to go as well.

Having Moses on the field is imperative because he’ll have to block DeMarcus Lawrence. David Irving and Lawrence are Dallas’ only consistent pass-rushers, so if the Redskins can neutralize the latter and only worry about Irving, that’ll go a long way in helping Kirk Cousins beat Dallas’ secondary.

Speaking of which, the Cowboys don’t defend the pass particularly well. They have middling corners and a huge liability at safety in Jeff Heath. Their linebackers, aside from Sean Lee, are pretty lackluster as well. I think they’re going to have trouble against the Redskin tight ends as a consequence. The best tight end they’ve battled this year was Martellus Bennett in Week 5, and Bennett racked up a season-high 53 yards against Dallas. Meanwhile, Chris Thompson will continue to serve as a potent threat out of the backfield.

RECAP: The Redskins were -1 on the advance line. Now, because the Cowboys demolished an 0-7 team, and Washington lost by 10 to the best squad in the NFL on national TV, Dallas is favored by 2.5, and everyone is betting on them to win this game.

I don’t get it. I think the wrong team is favored. With the Redskins likely starting their entire offensive line, they should be favored by two or so. Instead, the line is incredibly inflated toward the Cowboys.

I’m holding out for +3, but I still really like the Redskins at this current spread. This is going to be a three-unit wager as a great sell-high opportunity on the Cowboys, who have been favored by too many points in most of their games this year. So what if they crushed the 49ers? The Colts were doing the same thing until a late comeback in the fourth quarter. What Dallas did Sunday was unimpressive, yet people seem to think it was. Let’s take this opportunity to fade misconception. That would be that the Cowboys are one of the best teams in the NFL, which is not the case. Instead, I think reality is that these teams are pretty close to even, yet we have the chance to bet on a home underdog.

THURSDAY THOUGHTS: The sharps are betting the Redskins, which is curious because of the offensive line concerns. Trent Williams isn’t practicing, while Brandon Scherff’s status is up in the air. That said, if they both play, I like the Redskins a lot. This spread just isn’t correct.

SATURDAY NOTES (ON FRIDAY): Ugh, the Redskins are so banged up. Their center, Spencer Long, is out, but I don’t think that’s a huge deal because he hasn’t been playing well. What matters is that both guard Brandon Scherff and left tackle Trent Williams are questionable after not practicing all week. Right tackle Morgan Moses is also questionable, though he was able to get in one practice this week; he was limited on Friday. Josh Norman will return, but Washington’s blocking could be a serious problem with all of these injuries. Thus, I’m going to drop my unit count on this game from three to one for now. I’ll increase the wager if I hear better news, but I’m bearish on the Redskins’ chances right now.

SUNDAY MORNING NOTES: The Redskins will be missing Brandon Scherff, apparently. Considering all of the injuries to the offensive line, it’s no surprise that this spread has risen to -3. The sharps have stopped betting the Redskins, and some have even hedged by taking Dallas. This game could get ugly if the Redskins can’t pass protect, so I’m removing my wager.

FINAL THOUGHTS: The Redskins are now +3 -105 in many books. That would be very appealing if they didn’t have so many injuries. Trent Williams and Brandon Scherff are both out. Morgan Moses will at least play, but it’s unclear how healthy he is. It’s unfortunate, but I think we have to avoid this game.

The Psychology. Edge: None.
No edge found.

The Vegas. Edge: Redskins.

All the money is on the Cowboys.

Percentage of money on Dallas: 70% (27,000 bets)

The Trends. Edge: Redskins.

History: Underdog has covered 12 of the previous 17 meetings.

The underdog is 74-44 ATS in Cowboys games since 2010.

Jason Garett is 8-4 ATS in his second-consecutive road game.

Cowboys are 12-25 ATS when favored after a win since 2010.

Opening Line: Cowboys -2.5.

Opening Total: 50.5.

Weather: Rain, 60 degrees. Light wind.

Week 8 NFL Pick: Cowboys 27, Redskins 26
Redskins +3 (0 Units) — Incorrect; $0
Over 46 (0 Units) — Correct; $0
Cowboys 33, Redskins 19

Pittsburgh Steelers (5-2) at Detroit Lions (3-3)
Line: Steelers by 3. Total: 44.5.
Las Vegas Hilton Advance Point Spread: Steelers -3.
Walt’s Calculated Line: Lions -2.
Sunday, Oct 29, 8:30 PM
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The Game. Edge: Steelers.

It’s time for a Ross Avila update! Ross, some idiot kid on Facebook who challenged me to a picking contest this year, is now 11-23-1 with his selections. What’s sad about this is that Ross copied my picks in Weeks 5 and 6 and then went against all of them. He changed his strategy for Week 7, copying every single pick from the Supercontest leader. It’s not even a handicapping competition. He’s literally just cheating, and if he does it again, I’m going to invalidate his entry.

Despite his brutal record, Ross had the audacity call to me out:

Bold words coming from someone who pretends to have an internship at Google in order to sound impressive. Ross wasn’t done:

Ross will be posting “his” picks late Saturday night once he finds a new way to cheat.

DETROIT OFFENSE: If there was any team that needed a bye, it was the Lions. Matthew Stafford struggled in Week 6, as he winced in pain on some of his passes because of his rib injury. Meanwhile, talented guard T.J. Lang couldn’t play because of a bad back. Center Travis Swanson was banged up as well.

The bye is exactly what the doctor ordered. Lang will be needed if Stephon Tuitt returns from injury, though it could be possible that Tuitt may miss another game, as the Steelers may opt to hold him out with a bye coming up. If so, that’ll make things easier for Stafford, who will have to just worry about T.J. Watt and Cameron Heyward on the left side.

One player the Lions won’t be getting back from injury is Golden Tate, as he’s expected to miss a couple of games. Stafford will obviously wish he had Tate at his disposal, but he’ll still be able to move the chains with his usual throws to Marvin Jones and his running backs. The Steelers have allowed some big games to pass-catching running backs, so Ameer Abdullah and Theo Riddick figure to have some success.

PITTSBURGH OFFENSE: Detroit’s defensive players also needed a week off. Safety Glover Quin, knocked out versus the Saints with a concussion, returned to practice Tuesday. This was huge, as Quin has been playing on a Pro Bowl level. He and Darius Slay will be needed to slow down Antonio Brown. Slay is a talented cornerback, so I like his chances of at least containing the dynamic receiver.

Ben Roethlisberger, who continues to not be quite himself, will be playing on the road, where hasn’t been as effective in his career. On top of worrying about Quin being on the field, Roethlisberger will be concerned about pressure on the right side if Marcus Gilbert is out again. Gilbert, one of Pittsburgh’s top linemen, could be held out through the bye, just like Tuitt. If so, the Lions should be able to generate pressure on Roethlisberger with Anthony Zettel, who has been a pleasant surprise this year.

Of course, the Steelers will attempt to establish Le’Veon Bell, who has been dominant the past couple of weeks after a slow start to the season. The Saints just gashed the Lions for 189 yards and two touchdowns, so Bell figures to have another huge performance. Haloti Ngata is one player the Lions won’t have back, as he has been placed on injured reserve.

RECAP: I love the Lions this week. In fact, they’re my October NFL Pick of the Month.

This spread is off by five points. I have the Lions at -2. The Steelers are overpriced because of their victory in Kansas City and their blowout win over the Bengals. Beating the Chiefs was nice, but Kansas City had a Thursday night game coming up and wasn’t completely focused. Plus, Kansas City had a chance to win that game if a long Roethlisberger-to-Brown pass didn’t bounce off a helmet. The Steelers then went on to crush the Bengals, but Cincinnati sucks. Pittsburgh always dominates the Bengals. This is nothing new.

Meanwhile, the Lions are underpriced. Everyone saw them lose to the Panthers and Saints prior to the bye, but this occurred because Stafford hurt his ribs and many other players were banged up. That won’t be the case anymore because of the bye week.

Speaking of the bye, the Lions with Jim Caldwell have done well with extra time off. I think it helps that the Lions had a brutal loss prior to the bye. Now 3-3, they have their backs against the wall. They need this victory if they’re to contend for the NFC North title.

Meanwhile, this seems like the typical egg the Steelers lay all the time. They’re not the same team on the road, and they typically play down to their opponent when favored as visitors. We saw it when they lost at Chicago and had trouble putting the Browns away. None of this is new. The Steelers are just 11-24 against the spread as road favorites under Mike Tomlin for a reason. As a public team, they’re chronically overpriced because causal bettors don’t realize that Pittsburgh is not the same team away from home.

Even if I’m wrong, and the Steelers jump out to a sizable lead, the Lions won’t be out of it. They never are with Stafford. He’ll be able to lead them back to push, cover, or perhaps even win the game. He even did this with injured ribs against the Panthers and Saints, but now he’ll be healthy, so I like his chances to pull the upset over the Steelers, who, by the way, don’t really have anything to play for. Pittsburgh is 5-2 and well in control of the AFC North. Some of the players could be looking ahead to the bye following a divisional win, and I could see the Lions catching them off guard and getting the outright upset.

THURSDAY THOUGHTS: I still love the Lions. What I’m not loving is the line movement. I mean, the sharps are betting the Lions, which is great, but +3 -110 is no longer available. I’m considering locking in +3 -115 (Bovada or BetUS), but I’ll be patient for now. Hopefully that pays off.

SATURDAY NOTES (ON FRIDAY): The Lions received some great injury news, as the Steelers will be missing Marcus Gilbert and Stephon Tuitt. I received some great line movement news, as +3 -110 is now available at Bovada. We might be able to get a better spread by waiting, but +3 -110 is a terrific number, so I’m going to lock it in. The Lions will also be a part of a teaser with the Raiders.

No picks from Ross Avila yet, by the way, as I’m sure he’s scrambling to find someone new to copy this week.

SUNDAY MORNING NOTES: I have to say that I’m extremely disappointed in the public for not betting the Steelers. Instead, the sharps have been on Pittsburgh for some reason. I wish I would’ve refrained from locking my pick in because the Lions are +3 +100 across the board. I still love +3 -110, but +3 +100 is obviously much better. For what it’s worth, the Greek sportsbook tweeted that it doesn’t think this line will move to +3.5.

FINAL THOUGHTS: A +3.5 has shown up at Bovada, so it was obviously a mistake to lock this in early. I didn’t expect a public split and sharp action on the Steelers, but that’s exactly what happened. I don’t understand the pro money on Pittsburgh, considering that Marcus Gilbert and Stephon Tuitt are out, while Golden Tate will play. This game also means much more to the Lions. That said, considering the nonsense that happened in the Patriots-Chargers game, I’m expecting the worst.

The Psychology. Edge: Lions.

The Steelers just beat a divisional foe and now have a comfortable lead in the division. The Lions have had two weeks to hear about their losses.

The Vegas. Edge: Lions.
Some late money on the Steelers.

Percentage of money on Pittsburgh: 60% (57,000 bets)

The Trends. Edge: Lions.

Steelers are 24-15 ATS on the road off a home division win the previous 39 instances.

Steelers are 23-33 ATS as road favorites since 2007.

Steelers are 11-24 ATS as road favorites coming off a win under Mike Tomlin.

Opening Line: Steelers -3.

Opening Total: 44.5.

Weather: Dome.

Week 8 NFL Pick: Lions 27, Steelers 24
Lions +3 (8 Units – October NFL Pick of the Month) — Incorrect; -$880
Over 44.5 (0 Units) — Incorrect; $0
Steelers 20, Lions 15

Denver Broncos (3-3) at Kansas City Chiefs (5-2)
Line: Chiefs by 7.5. Total: 43.
Las Vegas Hilton Advance Point Spread: Chiefs -6.5.
Walt’s Calculated Line: Chiefs -5.5.
Monday, Oct 30, 8:30 PM
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The Game. Edge: Chiefs.

This week on ESPN, we’re going to have some bald dude and Jon Gruden calling the shots instead the great preseason homers like Kevin Reilly, Ron Wolfley and Don Tollefson, inept ESPN guys Emmitt, Herman Edwards and Matt Millen, and aloof people like Dan Fouts. Here’s what it would sound like if these seven dudes (and some special guests) were calling this game:

Reilly: Welcome to the city of Kansas City, Kansas, where in tonight’s game, the Kansas City Royals are playing the Oakland Raiders. Guys, I was watching the Thursday night game while I was rubbing mother’s feet, and I was shocked that Marshawn Lynch was ejected for hitting a ref. I tried to contact Marshawn to have him on as a special guest this week, but he asked me why he would be at this game. I guess he’s been suspended, so I’m here with breaking news. Marshawn Lynch is suspended! I’m like Adam Schefter! Ha, suck it Adam!

Emmitt: Schefter, you really mistakenedly. The reason Marchel Lynch not at football game is because he do not play for the Raider. He play for the Seahawk who battle the San Francisco Giant this week.

Herm: SO MANY MISTAKES! SO MANY ERRORS! SO MANY BLUNDERS! MARSHAWN IS THE NAME! NOT MARCHEL! WHAT IS MARCHEL, ANYWAY!? MARSHAWN IS THE NAME! FOOTBALL IS HIS GAME! AND HE PLAYS FOR THE RAIDERS! AND THE RAIDERS NOT PLAYING THIS GAME! IT’S THE BRONCOS! NOT THE RAIDERS! BRONCOS! SAME DIVISION! SAME CONFERENCE! SAME LEAGUE! SAME SPORT! SAME COUNTRY! SAME PLANET! SAME GALAXY! SAME UNIVERSE! SAME… WHAT WAS HERM TALKING ABOUT!? SOMETHING’S THE SAME! SOME TWO THINGS ARE THE SAME! BUT CAN’T REMEMBER WHAT! SAME… uhh… umm…

Reilly: Shut up, Herm. Emmitt, I really appreciate you calling me Schefter, but I am better than Schefter. How many Carson Wentz posters does Schefter have in his room, anyway? Probably only like five! Anyway, we have a guest here in the booth with us. It’s Ross Avila, Hillary Clinton’s Chief Officer of Backsides. Ross, what are you doing here?

Ross Avila: Kevin you suck at making picks. You are a square. I am a sharp. Your down like 50 units this season. I make $5,000 week on teasers and parlays. Your pathetic.

Reilly: What? I didn’t even talk about betting.

Tollefson: Ross, I’m glad you brought up that Reilly is a square. Truer words have never been said. If you’re looking for a real man’s picks, feel free to call 1-800-TOLLY-PICKS. You can buy my picks for $500. That’s the season package price. I’m guaranteed to hit every pick correct. Please call the number if you are a man. If you’re a woman, please call my other number, 1-800-WOMEN-CLEAN so you can come over my house and cook and clean naked for me.

Millen: Tolly, no one wants your stupid picks. Ross, as the Chief Officer of Backsides, I need to ask you a question. When I insert a kielbasa into a 50-percent USDA Man’s backside too often, sometimes blood comes out. This doesn’t happen with the 100-percent USDA Men – they’re 100-percent USDA for a reason – but the 50-percent USDA Men don’t last. Should I keep inserting kielbasas into their backsides, or should I stop and give them a break? I figure you’d know since you’re Hillary Clinton’s Chief Officer of Backsides.

Reilly: Shut up, Millen. Ross, why are you complaining about my picks? I don’t even offer picks anywhere. Unless you mean when I pick out mother’s Bingo card on Bingo night.

Ross Avila: Your trash, Kevin. You have no future. I have a great GPA in college, and I even have an internship at Google where I do… uhh… important things. All the bosses think I’m the best and they even said so. Soon enough their even going to let me change the layout of Google.com, and I’m going to be running the company because my dad works for Google and they say its OK. If you made good picks like me you could work for Google like I do but you don’t because your a looser.

Fouts: And here’s what Ross means by looser. When something is loose, it’s not tight. And here’s what I mean by tight. When something is tight, it’s not loose. And here’s what I mean by loose. When something is loose, it’s not tight. And here’s what I mean by tight. When something is tight, it’s not loose. And here’s what I mean by loose. When something is loose, it’s not tight. And here’s what I mean by tight. When something is tight, it’s not loose. And here’s…

Wolfley: I HAVE TO DISAGREE WITH YOU, DANIEL. I HAVE A LOOSE AND IT HAPPENS TO BE TIGHT, AND I ALSO HAVE A TIGHT AND IT HAPPENS TO BE LOOSE.

Reilly: What the hell are you talking about? And why do you hate me, Ross? I am the lead broadcaster for Monday Night Football, and I also have lots of Carson Wentz posters in my room!

Ross Avila: That’s because your a looser. I’m a winner. I make lots of money with parlays and teasers, more than you could ever make in a week. Your just jealous because I’m a sharp who works for Google and your a square.

Charles Davis: Kevin, Ross is talking about search engines, Kevin, so let’s talk about search engines, Kevin. So, you want to start with Google, Kevin? That’s because you’re a cheater, Kevin. As big of a cheater as Ross is in picking contests, Kevin. You’re a cheater because Ross said Google first, Kevin. Because Ross is such an important employee of Google, Kevin. How could you take that away from him, Kevin? Why do you suck at making picks, Kevin? You’re so bad at making picks, Kevin, that I don’t want to talk about search engines anymore, Kevin. And no, Kevin, pepperoni pizza is not a search engine, Kevin.

Ross Avila: See, even Charles Davis knows your a looser, Kevin. I make so much mon… what the!? My anus is bleeding! My anus is bleeding!

Millen: All I did was insert a kielbasa into your backside once! What are you, like 0.1-percent USDA Man!?

Reilly: I never thought I’d say this, but thank you, Matt Millen. You have saved me from that scum, who probably doesn’t have any Carson Wentz posters in his bedroom. We’ll be back after this!

DENVER OFFENSE: The Broncos were painful to watch on this side of the ball last week. Their tackles couldn’t block the Chargers’ elite edge rushers; they couldn’t run the ball whatsoever; and Trevor Siemian threw some of the ugliest passes ever when he wasn’t fumbling the ball away. Other than that, the Broncos were an unstoppable juggernaut!

The Broncos stand a better chance of moving the ball in this contest. Kansas City’s defense hasn’t been as dominant recently, as Derek Carr torched the Chiefs’ secondary last Thursday night. Justin Houston was a non-factor in the fourth quarter, though I expect him to rebound against whichever right tackle Denver goes with this week. Chris Jones also has a great matchup versus guard Max Garcia, but that’s about it. Demaryius Thomas won’t be locked down by an elite cornerback either. Thomas had to deal with Casey Hayward last week, but the only talented corner the Chiefs have is Marcus Peters, and he doesn’t shadow.

Meanwhile, the Chiefs’ run defense hasn’t been that strong lately. Le’Veon Bell trampled them, though that’s not a good barometer because he’s more talented than C.J. Anderson. A good example would be the 108 rushing yards the Texans generated in Week 5. Anderson will certainly have more success in this contest, helping Siemian rebound in the process.

KANSAS CITY OFFENSE: Alex Smith is having a great year for a couple of reasons, but I’d say the primary one would be Kareem Hunt. The dynamic rookie eclipsed 100 rushing yards in four of his first five games, forcing defenses to really focus on the run. Since then, however, he has been restricted to 108 total rushing yards in the past two weeks. Is it a coincidence that the Chiefs lost those two games?

If not, that’s a bad omen for the Chiefs, as they have to battle Denver’s top-ranked ground defense. Save for the Giants game, the Broncos haven’t allowed more than 76 rushing yards to any opponent, so that bodes well for their chances against Hunt, at least on the ground. However, I expect Hunt to have success as a receiver out of the backfield, given that Denver’s linebackers struggle to cover.

Speaking of the linebackers, they match up poorly against Travis Kelce, who should have a big game. Kelce will pick up where Hunter Henry left off last week, which is good news for Smith because he won’t be able to connect very much with Tyreek Hill and the other receivers with the “No Fly Zone” clamping down on all receivers.

RECAP: Everyone wants to bet against the Broncos after what they saw from them against the Chargers. The advance spread on this game was Chiefs -6.5, which I already thought was too high because of Kansas City’s extremely overrated home-field advantage. Now, because of what happened Sunday, Kansas City is now -7.5!

I find that number absurd. The Broncos arguably have the best defense in the NFL, and they’ll be able to run the ball on the Chiefs. Siemian has played well enough to win in the past when his running game is working, and that should happen in this game.

As you can tell, I like the Broncos in a buy-low situation, and I’m going to bet three units on them. My one concern is that Andy Reid has enjoyed extra preparation time. However, I factored that into my spread, which was only Kansas City -5.5. The Chiefs get a point, at most, for being at home, as they actually have a home-field disadvantage based on their results. They should be 0-3 against the spread as hosts this year, but had lucky covers against the Eagles and Redskins. As long as no fourth-quarter nonsense happens in this game, I think Denver should sneak within a touchdown, losing a close, defensive battle in the process.

THURSDAY THOUGHTS: I forgot to mention that Shane Ray is returning this week for the Broncos, which will be a big boost for their defense. I like Denver, and so do the sharps, at least at +7.5. All the +7.5s are gone, but +7 -105 is available at BetUS, which is still a nice number.

SATURDAY NOTES: There’s some positive injury news for the Broncos, as Justin Houston is questionable with knee soreness. Houston will probably play, but it’s not a given that he will, given that he missed Saturday’s practice. Plus, even if he suits up, he may not be 100 percent. This is a nice boost for the Broncos, and I could see myself moving this wager to four units by Monday evening.

SUNDAY MORNING NOTES: The Broncos are +7 -105 in most books. I’ll be interested to see if the Chiefs move to -7.5 by Monday.

FINAL THOUGHTS: I still like the Broncos enough to bet three units on them. They have the better defense in this matchup, and a low-scoring game should go to the underdog. Plus, the Chiefs, who have to once again start Cameron Erving, don’t have a good home-field advantage. Anyway, two things of note: First, there’s no sharp action on either side. Second, we have a choice on which line to take. BetUS is listing +7 -105, while Bovada has +7.5 -110. According to the math, the +7.5 -110 gives you a 1-percent better margin, so that’s what I’m going with.

The Psychology. Edge: None.
No edge found.

The Vegas. Edge: Broncos.

No one wants to bet the Broncos anymore.

Percentage of money on Kansas City: 73% (60,000 bets)

The Trends. Edge: Chiefs.

History: Chiefs have won the last 3 meetings.

Opening Line: Chiefs -7.

Opening Total: 44.

Weather: .

Week 8 NFL Pick: Chiefs 20, Broncos 16
Broncos +7.5 (3 Units) — Incorrect; -$330
Under 43 (0 Units) — Incorrect; $0
Chiefs 29, Broncos 19

Week 8 NFL Picks – Early Games
Miami at Baltimore, Minnesota at Cleveland, Atlanta at NY Jets, Indianapolis at Cincinnati, Oakland at Buffalo, Carolina at Tampa Bay, San Francisco at Philadelphia, LA Chargers at New England, Chicago at New Orleans

Prop/Teaser/Parlay Picks
A list of some of my favorite team/player prop picks this week
(Offense & defensive ROY picks to be counted whenever winners are announced.) Picks carried over on a week-to-week basis will be in black.

Teaser: Raiders +8.5, Lions +9 (2 Units) — Incorrect; -$220

NFL Picks - Nov. 20

2025 NFL Mock Draft - Nov. 20

NFL Power Rankings - Nov. 19

Fantasy Football Rankings - Sept. 4

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Note: For legality purposes, this Web site does not promote or advocate gambling. This is solely for entertainment purposes only.

Last Week's NFL Picks Against The Spread (Week 12, 2024): 11-3 (+$2,020)
Last Week's 2-3 Unit NFL Picks (Week 12, 2024): 3-1 (+$580)
Last Week's 4-5 Unit NFL Picks (Week 12, 2024): 3-0 (+$1,400)
Last Week Over-Under (Week 12, 2024): 6-8 ($0)
Last Week's Prop/ML/Teaser/Parlay Picks (Week 12, 2024): +$905

2024 NFL Picks of the Month: 1-3, 25.0% (-$1,365)

2024 Season NFL Picks Against The Spread: 89-82-6, 52.0% (-$2,545)
2024 Season 2-3 Unit NFL Picks: 22-26-1, 45.8% (-$600)
2024 Season 4-5 Unit NFL Picks: 18-17, 51.4% (-$155)
2024 Season Over-Under: 82-82-2, 50.0% (+$95)
2024 Season Prop/ML/Teaser/Parlay Picks: +$740

1999 Season NFL Picks Against The Spread: 27-41-3 (39.7%)
2000 Season NFL Picks Against The Spread: 128-123-8 (51.0%)
2001 Season NFL Picks Against The Spread: 127-122-7 (51.0%)
2002 Season NFL Picks Against The Spread: 123-136-7 (47.5%)
2003 Season NFL Picks Against The Spread: 146-126-8 (53.7%)
2004 Season NFL Picks Against The Spread: 157-123-8 (56.1%)
2005 Season NFL Picks Against The Spread: 156-126-11 (55.3%)
2006 Season NFL Picks Against The Spread: 151-135-9 (52.8%)
2007 Season NFL Picks Against The Spread: 162-135-10, 54.5% (+$3,585)
2008 Season NFL Picks Against The Spread: 148-140-7, 51.4% (+$6,105)
2009 Season NFL Picks Against The Spread: 151-124-9, 54.9% (+$4,235)
2010 Season NFL Picks Against The Spread: 144-131-8, 52.4% (+$5,880)
2011 Season NFL Picks Against The Spread: 137-133-12, 50.7% (-$1,335)
2012 Season NFL Picks Against The Spread: 130-145-8, 47.3% (-$7,445)
2013 Season NFL Picks Against The Spread: 144-131-8, 52.4% (+$7,825)
2014 Season NFL Picks Against The Spread: 143-133-7, 51.8% (-$1,885)
2015 Season NFL Picks Against The Spread: 134-138-12, 49.3% (-$3,215)
2016 Season NFL Picks Against The Spread: 148-127-10, 53.8% (+$780)
2017 Season NFL Picks Against The Spread: 137-140-8, 49.5% (-$4,300)
2018 Season NFL Picks Against The Spread: 140-134-14, 51.3% (+$845)
2019 Season NFL Picks Against The Spread: 149-128-9, 53.6% (+$1,200)
2020 Season NFL Picks Against The Spread: 138-124-7, 52.7% (+$9,350)
2021 Season NFL Picks Against The Spread: 153-141-2, 51.9% (+$210)
2022 Season NFL Picks Against The Spread: 154-134-8, 53.5% (+$9,860)
2023 Season NFL Picks Against The Spread: 144-141-7, 50.5% (-$7,285)

2002 Season 2-3 Unit NFL Picks: 41-49-2 (45.6%)
2003 Season 2-3 Unit NFL Picks: 52-51-2 (50.5%)
2004 Season 2-3 Unit NFL Picks: 65-44-3 (59.6%)
2005 Season 2-3 Unit NFL Picks: 77-61-1 (55.8%)
2006 Season 2-3 Unit NFL Picks: 65-61-4 (51.6%)
2007 Season 2-3 Unit NFL Picks: 83-59-5, 58.5% (+$4,110)
2008 Season 2-3 Unit NFL Picks: 44-57-3, 43.6% (-$3,510)
2009 Season 2-3 Unit NFL Picks: 49-35-3, 58.3% (+$2,260)
2010 Season 2-3 Unit NFL Picks: 51-38-4, 57.3% (+$3,180)
2011 Season 2-3 Unit NFL Picks: 44-51-3, 46.3% (-$2,715)
2012 Season 2-3 Unit NFL Picks: 45-50-2, 47.4% (-$2,130)
2013 Season 2-3 Unit NFL Picks: 38-42, 47.5% (-$2,890)
2015 Season 2-3 Unit NFL Picks: 47-44-1, 51.6% (-$820)
2016 Season 2-3 Unit NFL Picks: 42-35-3, 54.5% (+$475)
2017 Season 2-3 Unit NFL Picks: 32-40-3, 43.8% (-$2,395)
2018 Season 2-3 Unit NFL Picks: 52-41-2, 55.9% (+$2,670)
2019 Season 2-3 Unit NFL Picks: 44-36-2, 55.0% (+$655)
2020 Season 2-3 Unit NFL Picks: 47-43-3, 52.2% (-$1,965)
2021 Season 2-3 Unit NFL Picks: 50-50, 50.0% (-$1,570)
2022 Season 2-3 Unit NFL Picks: 56-44-2, 56.0% (+$1,860)
2023 Season 2-3 Unit NFL Picks: 44-40-3, 52.4% (+$285)

2002 Season 4-5 Unit NFL Picks: 11-12 (47.8%)
2003 Season 4-5 Unit NFL Picks: 16-13-1 (55.2%)
2004 Season 4-5 Unit NFL Picks: 18-11 (62.1%)
2005 Season 4-5 Unit NFL Picks: 25-22-1 (53.2%)
2006 Season 4-5 Unit NFL Picks: 21-29-1 (42.0%)
2007 Season 4-5 Unit NFL Picks: 35-30-2, 53.8% (+$420)
2008 Season 4-5 Unit NFL Picks: 39-26-2, 60.0% (+$4,055)
2009 Season 4-5 Unit NFL Picks: 29-26, 52.7% (+$330)
2010 Season 4-5 Unit NFL Picks: 32-22, 59.3% (+$4,790)
2011 Season 4-5 Unit NFL Picks: 14-14, 50.0% (-$1,260)
2012 Season 4-5 Unit NFL Picks: 14-21, 40.0% (-$3,650)
2013 Season 4-5 Unit NFL Picks: 17-9-3, 65.4% (+$2,970)
2015 Season 4-5 Unit NFL Picks: 17-16-2, 51.5% (-$1,120)
2016 Season 4-5 Unit NFL Picks: 21-22-5, 48.8% (-$1,465)
2017 Season 4-5 Unit NFL Picks: 20-22-1, 47.6% (-$1,595)
2018 Season 4-5 Unit NFL Picks: 27-32-1, 45.8% (-$4,735)
2019 Season 4-5 Unit NFL Picks: 37-27-2, 57.8% (+$2,185)
2020 Season 4-5 Unit NFL Picks: 37-22-1, 62.7% (+$5,515)
2021 Season 4-5 Unit NFL Picks: 32-32-1, 50.0% (-$725)
2022 Season 4-5 Unit NFL Picks: 41-30-1, 57.8% (+$3,725)
2023 Season 4-5 Unit NFL Picks: 32-27-1, 54.2% (-$1,310)

2001 Season Over-Under: 3-2 (60.0%)
2002 Season Over-Under: 121-91-3 (57.1%)
2003 Season Over-Under: 126-132-2 (48.8%)
2004 Season Over-Under: 139-124-4 (52.9%)
2005 Season Over-Under: 117-145-4 (44.7%)
2006 Season Over-Under: 129-132-5 (49.4%)
2007 Season Over-Under: 136-145-3, 48.4% (-$1,900)
2008 Season Over-Under: 137-125-6, 52.3% (+$860)
2009 Season Over-Under: 128-135-4, 48.7% (-$3,195)
2010 Season Over-Under: 128-135-5, 48.7% (-$5)
2011 Season Over-Under: 131-131-5, 50.0% (+$135)
2012 Season Over-Under: 125-121-5, 50.8% (+$30)
2013 Season Over-Under: 132-130-5, 50.4% (-$340)
2015 Season Over-Under: 143-119-5, 54.6% ($0)
2016 Season Over-Under: 123-141-1, 46.6% (+$95)
2017 Season Over-Under: 136-139-2, 49.5% (+$640)
2018 Season Over-Under: 118-128-3, 48.0% (-$225)
2019 Season Over-Under: 126-133-4, 48.6% (-$50)
2020 Season Over-Under: 141-122-6, 53.6% ($0)
2021 Season Over-Under: 132-151-3, 46.6% ($0)
2022 Season Over-Under: 133-149-2, 47.2% (-$225)
2023 Season Over-Under: 145-135-3, 51.8% (+$200)

2007 Season Prop/ML/Teaser/Parlay Picks: +$1,035
2008 Season Prop/ML/Teaser/Parlay Picks: +$1,775
2009 Season Prop/ML/Teaser/Parlay Picks: +$865
2010 Season Prop/ML/Teaser/Parlay Picks: -$200
2011 Season Prop/ML/Teaser/Parlay Picks: +$590
2012 Season Prop/ML/Teaser/Parlay Picks: -$1,685
2013 Season Prop/ML/Teaser/Parlay Picks: +$2,245
2015 Season Prop/ML/Teaser/Parlay Picks: -$855
2016 Season Prop/ML/Teaser/Parlay Picks: -$275
2017 Season Prop/ML/Teaser/Parlay Picks: -$510
2018 Season Prop/ML/Teaser/Parlay Picks: +$1,495
2019 Season Prop/ML/Teaser/Parlay Picks: -$1,715
2020 Season Prop/ML/Teaser/Parlay Picks: +$4,975
2021 Season Prop/ML/Teaser/Parlay Picks: +$3,455
2022 Season Prop/ML/Teaser/Parlay Picks: +$5,720
2023 Season Prop/ML/Teaser/Parlay Picks: -$2,565

2006 NFL Picks of the Month: 3-3 (50%)
2007 NFL Picks of the Month: 3-3, 50.0% (-$400)
2008 NFL Picks of the Month: 6-1, 85.7% (+$3,720)
2009 NFL Picks of the Month: 3-2, 60.0% (+$640)
2010 NFL Picks of the Month: 2-4, 33.3% (-$1,810)
2011 NFL Picks of the Month: 5-2, 71.4% (+$1,870)
2012 NFL Picks of the Month: 3-2, 60.0% (+$560)
2013 NFL Picks of the Month: 6-0, 100% (+$3,900)
2014 NFL Picks of the Month: 2-4, 33.3% (-$1,350)
2015 NFL Picks of the Month: 3-3, 50.0% (-$100)
2016 NFL Picks of the Month: 5-1, 83.3% (+$2,780)
2017 NFL Picks of the Month: 4-2, 66.7% (+$1,040)
2018 NFL Picks of the Month: 4-3, 57.1% (-$640)
2019 NFL Picks of the Month: 3-3-1, 50.0% (-$625)
2020 NFL Picks of the Month: 3-2, 60.0% (+$665)
2021 NFL Picks of the Month: 2-3, 40.0% (-$920)
2022 NFL Picks of the Month: 3-4, 42.9% (-$1,615)
2023 NFL Picks of the Month: 2-5, 28.6% (-$2,550)

Career NFL Picks Against The Spread: 3,510-3,234-202, 52.0% (+$19,125)
Career 2-3 Unit NFL Picks: 1,129-1,011-57 (52.8%)
Career 4-5 Unit NFL Picks: 571-502-25 (53.2%)
Career Over-Under: 2,941-2,916-76 (50.2%)
Career Second-Half NFL Picks: 23-16-1 (59.0%)
Career NFL Picks of the Month: 47-37-1 (56.0%)

My Team-by-Team ATS Record
This section shows how well I do when picking each team this year. The purpose is to see how well I read each team. Pushes are not displayed. Winning/losing streak in parentheses.

Cowboys: 6-3	Bears: 5-5	Bucs: 6-4	49ers: 6-4
Eagles: 5-5	Lions: 9-1	Falcons: 6-5	Cardinals: 8-2
Giants: 3-6	Packers: 6-3	Panthers: 4-6	Rams: 5-5
Redskins: 5-5	Vikings: 4-6	Saints: 5-6	Seahawks: 6-3

Bills: 4-7	Bengals: 2-9	Colts: 6-5	Broncos: 7-4
Dolphins: 4-6	Browns: 3-7	Jaguars: 3-7	Chargers: 6-3
Jets: 6-5	Ravens: 5-5	Texans: 5-6	Chiefs: 4-5
Patriots: 6-3	Steelers: 4-6	Titans: 6-3	Raiders: 5-5

Divisional: 21-23 (2011-23: 608-561)	2x Game Edge: 18-14 (2011-23: 401-387)	2x Motivation Edge: 31-25 (2011-23: 510-441)	2x Spread Edge: 21-30 (2011-23: 239-211)
2x Vegas Edge: 33-47 (2011-23: 448-446)	2x Trend Edge: 12-8 (2011-23: 321-293)	Double Edge: 13-16 (2011-23: 207-185)	Triple Edge: 4-8 (2011-23: 33-37)