NFL Picks Against the Spread: Week 1, 2021

2021 NFL Picks: 0-0 ($0)

NFL Picks (2020): 138-124-7 (+$9,350)
NFL Picks (2019): 148-128-9 (+$1,200)
NFL Picks (2018): 140-134-12 (+$845)
NFL Picks (2017): 137-147-10 (-$4,300)
NFL Picks (2016): 148-127-10 (+$780)
NFL Picks (2015): 133-138-10 (-$3,215)
NFL Picks (2014): 143-133-7 (-$1,885)
NFL Picks (2013): 144-131-8 (+$7,825)
NFL Picks (2012): 130-145-8 (-$7,445)
NFL Picks (2011): 137-133-12 (-$1,335)
NFL Picks (2010): 144-131-8 (+$5,880)
NFL Picks (2009): 151-124-9 (+$4,235)
NFL Picks (2008): 136-125-6 (+$6,105)
NFL Picks (2007): 162-135-10 (+$3,585)
If you don’t quite understand the line, total or anything else, go to my Sports Betting FAQ.

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Vegas betting action updated Sept. 12, 11:30 a.m. Follow @walterfootball for updates.


Go to Week 1 NFL Picks – Late Games







Dallas Cowboys (0-0) at Tampa Bay Buccaneers (0-0)
Line: Buccaneers by 9. Total: 52.
Thursday, September 9, 8:20 PM

The Matchup. Edge: Buccaneers.

Something I say every year is that I expect to have the best handicapping season ever. This is because I strive to improve during the offseason. I practice my handicapping by trying to pick games of which I don’t recall the score, and I also review what I did right and wrong during each week of the prior two regular seasons.

There was a steady improvement in my handicapping leading up to 2020, which truly turned out to be the best season ever. We finished with a profit of $9,350, as I earned seventh place in the Supercontest in the process:



Despite doing so well in 2020, I was able to learn an adequate amount during my summer review, which I’ll be applying to my 2021 handicapping. Thus, I once again believe that this upcoming season will be the best year ever.

Further improvement isn’t the only change that will be made. This is because of a very special, personal announcement, which is that my wife is pregnant and is due on Christmas:



Because I have to spend some of my non-football days helping my wife prepare for the birth of our son, I will have to cut back a few things. Nothing will change as far as the picks and fantasy rankings are concerned – though the picks and/or recaps the week of could be late – but I had to eliminate some features, like the Adventures of Tom Brady’s Haircuts, which probably had run its course anyway because it has become increasingly difficult to find new, unused pictures of Brady. I will also be cutting back the Random NFL and College Football Thoughts articles. Lastly, there will be no Emmitt on the Brink on this Web site. That’s because I wrote another book during the spring and summer! It’s a continuation of Emmitt on the Brink, but you absolutely do not need to be familiar with Emmitt on the Brink to read it. The book is called How the 2020 MVP Was Stolen:



This book is not completely about football; it’s more political than anything, so some of you will hate it, and frankly, Amazon could ban it at some point. Nevertheless, if you want to support the site, please consider ordering a copy!

At any rate, almost everything else will return. The spam mails are back because I was able to knock those out in a day during the summer. The same goes for the Video of the Week feature, as well as the fake Monday Night Football broadcast conversation. The stock page will continue to be updated weekly, and I’ll even be posting new wagers I make on the NFL Betting Props page. As an example, I’m looking to wager on the Chiefs to win the Super Bowl, but I want to get a good number to do so.

With all that said, I’m looking forward to these next 18 weeks. My goal this year is to win the Supercontest, so let’s get the picks started with the opening Thursday game!

DALLAS OFFENSE: I’m beginning this picks analysis with the Cowboys’ offense because they currently have some injury concerns. I’m not even talking about Dak Prescott and Amari Cooper, both of whom may not be 100 percent for this game because of prior injuries. The Cowboys may not have two starting offensive linemen for this contest because La’el Collins, like Prescott and Cooper, is recovering from an earlier malady, while Zack Martin could be sidelined with a very minor illness.

If both Collins and Martin are sidelined, Prescott will endure the same problem Patrick Mahomes experienced in the Super Bowl. Mahomes had no protection whatsoever against one of the top defensive lines in the NFL, so he was constantly running for his life. Even if one blocker is missing, Prescott will have issues.

The Cowboys will need Prescott at his best because running the ball will be extremely difficult. The Buccaneers own an elite ground defense, so Ezekiel Elliott won’t find many running lanes, especially if Collins and Martin are absent.

TAMPA BAY OFFENSE: I don’t know how much analysis is needed for this matchup because the Buccaneers are loaded offensively, while the Cowboys possess one of the worst defenses in the NFL. Specifically, the Cowboys have a miserable secondary. With that in mind, how are they supposed to defend Mike Evans, Chris Godwin and Antonio Brown, all while worrying about Rob Gronkowski, O.J. Howard and Cameron Brate?

With poor play in the secondary and sub-par talent at linebacker – save for Micah Parsons, who is an unknown – the Cowboys will need to pressure Tom Brady to disrupt him. The problem with that is that Brady is protected by an excellent blocking unit.

RECAP: This will likely be a blowout if the Cowboys are missing their offensive linemen. There’s no way Prescott will be able to engage in a shootout with Brady if he’s constantly running for his life. A back-door cover might be possible, but probably unlikely because the Buccaneers will be able to score at will.

I’m planning on betting this game, but the unit count will be determined by the status of Dallas’ offensive line. Stay tuned for updates!

Our Week 1 NFL Picks will be posted all day Tuesday. Follow @walterfootball for updates.

THURSDAY THOUGHTS: Antonio Brown missed Tuesday’s practice, but he isn’t listed on the injury report. However, the same can be said of La’el Collins, so the Buccaneers will be down just one offensive lineman. This will be a small bet on Tampa.

FINAL THOUGHTS: I wish La’el Collins were out for this game. That would have made the Buccaneers a big play. I like them because this spread isn’t high enough, especially when factoring in Zack Martin’s absence, but I’m only betting two units on Tampa. The best line I found is -9 -105 at Bovada.




The Motivation. Edge: None.
No edge found.


The Spread. Edge: Buccaneers.

WalterFootball.com Calculated Spread: Buccaneers -10.5.
Westgate Advance Point Spread: N/A.
Computer Model: Buccaneers -11.
DVOA Spread: .


The Vegas. Edge: None.
Equal action.

Percentage of money on Tampa Bay: 55% (124,000 bets)


The Trends. Edge: None.

The underdog is 102-67 ATS in Cowboys games since 2010.

Road Team is 107-68 ATS in Buccaneers games since 2009.

Tom Brady is 261-82 as a starter (195-133 ATS).

Tom Brady is 180-119 against the spread since 2003.

Tom Brady is 122-76 ATS in non-divisional games.

Buccaneers are 29-57 ATS at home in the previous 85 instances.

Opening Line: Buccaneers -6.5.

Opening Total: 51.5.

Weather: .

Week 1 NFL Pick: Buccaneers 38, Cowboys 27
Buccaneers -9 -105 (2 Units) – Bovada — Incorrect; -$210
Over 51.5 (0 Units) — Correct; $0
Buccaneers 31, Cowboys 29

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Pittsburgh Steelers (0-0) at Buffalo Bills (0-0)
Line: Bills by 6. Total: 48.
Sunday, September 12, 1:00 PM

The Matchup. Edge: None.

My overrated-underrated feature was posted in this spot the past couple of years. I thought it would be better if there was less clutter on this page, so I set up a new NFL Overrated and Underrated Teams page that will be updated every Monday. I have overrated and underrated teams listed there, and some may shock you!

BUFFALO OFFENSE: Some news broke earlier this week that suggests T.J. Watt’s status for Week 1 is in doubt because he’s holding out for a new contract. That is a huge development because the Steelers will need all current hands on deck to have any chance at slowing down Buffalo’s offense. I typed “current” hands because talented defensive lineman Stephon Tuitt is on injured reserve. This is especially painful, considering that Bud Dupree left the team via free agency.

It seems as though the Steelers won’t have many players to rush Josh Allen. The Pro Bowl quarterback will be able to slice through Pittsburgh’s secondary with ease. The Steelers lost some defensive backs as well this offseason, so it appears as though this is an extremely favorable matchup for Allen, Stefon Diggs, Cole Beasley and Gabriel Davis.

PITTSBURGH OFFENSE: The Steelers also lost several key players on this side of the ball as well. Four starting offensive linemen departed this offseason, including perennial Pro Bowl guard David DeCastro. With tackle Zach Banner sidelined as well, Pittsburgh will be forced into starting two rookies – left tackle Dan Moore and center Kendrick Green – as well as right guard Trai Turner, who was one of the worst starting offensive linemen in the NFL last year.

It’s safe to say that this doesn’t bode well for Ben Roethlisberger and Najee Harris. The latter is a promising rookie, but he won’t have much help when trying to rush through Buffalo’s defense. He’ll at least have some success as a receiver out of the backfield.

Roethlisberger, meanwhile, looked terrific in his brief preseason action. He inexplicably resembled the Roethlisberger from 2010, who took the Steelers to the Super Bowl. However, that was exhibition action, and his blocking unit will be tested against a Buffalo front that received some reinforcements in the 2021 NFL Draft, including rookie edge rusher Gregory Rousseau, who also performed well in the preseason. If Roethlisberger doesn’t have ample time to throw, it won’t matter how talented his receiving corps happens to be.

RECAP: This is not one of my favorite gambling opportunities this week, but I like the Bills to cover the spread. There’s a chance the Steelers can earn a back-door cover with this line currently above six, but as with the Thursday game, I think it’s more likely that the Bills beat the number because they’ll be able to score at will. Pittsburgh’s offense, meanwhile, may not be able to keep up because of the blocking concerns.

I’m currently going to label this as “TBA units.” If Watt ends up missing this game, I’ll have interest in betting on Buffalo.

THURSDAY THOUGHTS: T.J. Watt returned to practice Wednesday, so he could play in this game. I still like the Bills, but this makes me less interested in them.

SATURDAY NOTES: The Bills are completely healthy heading into this game, save for an injury to a backup defensive lineman. The Steelers, conversely, won’t have a starting tackle and a key defensive lineman. Watt will play, however, so I’m not seeing a huge edge in this game. I still like Buffalo, but I won’t be betting this contest.

FINAL THOUGHTS: There are no surprise inactives in this game, save for Zack Moss, but that’s only relevant in fantasy. There’s not significant sharp action here either. If you like the Bills, the best line is -6 -111 at Bookmaker.


The Motivation. Edge: Steelers.
The Bills embarrassed the Steelers on national TV last year, but I don’t see why the Bills wouldn’t try hard.


The Spread. Edge: None.

WalterFootball.com Calculated Spread: Bills -6.5.
Westgate Advance Point Spread: N/A.
Computer Model: Bills -8.
DVOA Spread: .


The Vegas. Edge: None.
Equal action.

Percentage of money on Buffalo: 59% (83,000 bets)


The Trends. Edge: None.

Opening Line: Bills -6.

Opening Total: 50.5.

Weather: Cloudy, 74 degrees. Mild wind, 14 mph.

Week 1 NFL Pick: Bills 34, Steelers 26
Bills -6 (0 Units) — Incorrect; $0
Over 49 (0 Units) — Incorrect; $0
Steelers 23, Bills 16

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New York Jets (0-0) at Carolina Panthers (0-0)
Line: Panthers by 3.5. Total: 44.5.
Sunday, September 12, 1:00 PM

The Matchup. Edge: None.

VEGAS UPDATE: I’ll be posting how the Vegas sportsbooks have done the previous week in this spot. The highest-bet sides were 34-42 last season.

There were no heavily bet sides, so nothing to report.

Here are the teams getting the most bets this week:

49ers -7.5

Rams -7.5

Ravens -4.5

Seahawks -2.5

Panthers -5.5

Some things never change. The public is once again backing favorites, three of which are playing on the road.

CAROLINA OFFENSE: When you were watching Sam Darnold lose game after game last year, did you ever imagine that he would be favored by nearly a touchdown at any point in 2021? The only scenario that would make sense to me is if he went to the Chiefs and started for an injured Patrick Mahomes against one of the worst teams in the NFL, and even that would be a stretch.

I don’t understand how anyone can justify Darnold being a 5.5-point favorite over anyone. I get that the Jets were horrible last year, but they’ll be better in 2021. Their defense is a mess, but not their front. Quinnen Williams and John Franklin-Myers should have their way with a Carolina offensive line that is missing guard John Miller to a very minor illness and happens to be starting Cam Erving at left tackle. I don’t understand how any team can enter a season with Erving as their starting blind-side protector. It reminds me of when the Browns decided to go with Greg Robinson at the same position. They were a huge disappointment in 2019 as a result.

Darnold at least has great weapons at his disposal. The Jets’ terrible cornerbacks and linebacking corps don’t stand a chance against D.J. Moore, Robby Anderson, Terrace Marshall and Christian McCaffrey. However, it seems unlikely that Darnold will be able to sustain consistent drives, especially behind his poor offensive line. He couldn’t even do so against Pittsburgh’s backups in the final preseason game.

NEW YORK OFFENSE: While the Jets’ defense is a total disaster, their offense at least has a chance of being potent this season. They added some talent at receiver – Corey Davis, Elijah Moore – and obtained an upgrade in the interior of their offensive line in Alijah Vera-Tucker. Most importantly, they improved their quarterback situation by selecting Zach Wilson No. 2 overall.

Wilson thrived in the preseason, particularly when throwing to Corey Davis. The Panthers, however, can counter this with their first-round selection, Jaycee Horn. They can also pressure Wilson with some talented front-seven personnel like Brian Burns, Haason Reddick and Derrick Brown. Wilson will be protected well on the edge because of Mekhi Becton and Morgan Moses, but Brown figures to be a colossal problem in the interior.

RECAP: I can’t consider backing the Panthers. Not above -3 with Darnold at the helm. He’s one of the worst quarterbacks in the NFL, so he doesn’t deserve to be favored by this much over anyone, especially when considering the issues he’ll have with his offensive line. My personal spread for this game is Carolina -4, and even that seems a tad high.

I’m going to be on the Jets, but this will be a small wager. I don’t like backing first-time head coaches versus veteran opponents in Week 1, especially in a weird offseason. Granted, this summer was nothing like what happened in 2020, but it could still be a challenge for Robert Saleh to prepare a great game plan against Matt Rhule.

Still, the Jets are the play. They’re a bit underrated, while the Panthers won’t have much success if their offensive line is as bad as I think it’ll be.

THURSDAY THOUGHTS: It looks like there’s some sharp money coming in on the Jets. The public is still pounding the Panthers, yet the line is dropping.

SATURDAY NOTES: Outside of the Carl Lawson injury, the only major player who will be sidelined is Jamison Crowder. This would’ve been a big deal last year, but the Jets have Corey Davis and Elijah Moore as options for their upgraded quarterback. I can see the argument for picking the Panthers, given that the Jets have a new coach and quarterback tandem, but I can’t bring myself to back Sam Darnold as more than a three-point favorite.

SATURDAY NOTES II: I added a moneyline parlay with the Jets and Eagles. I believe both of their games to be coin flips, and both underdogs are priced +155 or better.

FINAL THOUGHTS: There’s a ton of sharp action coming in on the Jets, while the public is pounding the Panthers. I like the Jets, but I’m not confident enough to bet them because of the new coach/quarterback dynamic.


The Motivation. Edge: None.
No edge found.


The Spread. Edge: None.

WalterFootball.com Calculated Spread: Panthers -4.
Westgate Advance Point Spread: N/A.
Computer Model: Panthers -6.
DVOA Spread: .


The Vegas. Edge: Jets.
Why is there so much action on the Panthers?

Percentage of money on Carolina: 70% (66,000 bets)


The Trends. Edge: None.

Opening Line: Panthers -4.

Opening Total: 43.

Weather: Sunny, 82 degrees. Light wind.

Week 1 NFL Pick: Panthers 23, Jets 20
Jets +3.5 (0 Units) — Incorrect; $0
Under 44.5 (0 Units) — Correct; $0
Parlay (Jets ML, Eagles ML) – 0.5 Units to win 3 Units — Incorrect; -$50
Panthers 19, Jets 14

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Jacksonville Jaguars (0-0) at Houston Texans (0-0)
Line: Jaguars by 3. Total: 45.5.
Sunday, September 12, 1:00 PM

The Matchup. Edge: None.

HATE MAIL: I will be posting hate mail here. We’ll have to see if I get some good hate mail I can post for next week. For now, let’s take a look at some hate mail from the past:











JACKSONVILLE OFFENSE: It feels weird writing about the Jaguars and knowing that their passing game won’t suck for a change. They’ve endured so many bad quarterbacks over the years, from Blake Bortles, to Gardner Minshew, to Blaine “Eyes Closed” Gabbert. They finally have their answer at the position.

Trevor Lawrence was terrific in his final preseason game, albeit against Dallas backups. Still, Lawrence won’t exactly be battling the ’85 Bears defense in this game. The Texans’ defense, which was once an excellent unit, has seen so much talent depart in recent offseasons. J.J. Watt left this particular spring, meaning the Texans are going to be so much worse up front. Whitney Mercilus is now the lone viable talent on the front, yet he has struggled in recent years. Lawrence isn’t protected especially well, so there could be some opportunities for the Texans, but they probably don’t have the skill to take advantage of a blocking unit that is sub par.

The Texans also won’t have their top cornerback, Bradley Roby, due to a one-game suspension. This will hurt against the Jaguars’ talented receiving corps. As good as Lawrence was at times in the August games, he didn’t even have D.J. Chark at his disposal. He’ll make good use of Chark, Marvin Jones and Laviska Shenault, but he may not need to throw all that much because James Robinson figures to gash one of the worst run defenses in the NFL.

HOUSTON OFFENSE: This should have been an exciting battle between two talented, young quarterbacks, but Deshaun Watson obviously can’t start after receiving more than 20 sexual assault allegations this offseason. He’s still on the roster, but he’ll have to watch Tyrod Taylor pilot Houston’s offense instead.

I can’t say I have much faith in Taylor. He started one game last year, and his Chargers could barely score against the Bengals, who possessed a horrible defense. The Jaguars don’t have much talent on this side of the ball either, but they at least have some skill at cornerback with C.J. Henderson and Shaq Griffin. They should be able to handle Brandin Cooks and Houston’s other crappy receivers.

Meanwhile, I can’t say I expect much out of the rushing attack. The Texans are giving snaps to Mark Ingram and Rex Burkhead, which seems like a terrible plan unless their true goal is to lose enough to guarantee themselves Spencer Rattler in the 2022 NFL Draft. Still, if there’s one team the Texans will be able to run against, it’s the Jaguars.

RECAP: I have no interest in backing the Texans, who have a realistic chance of being the first team in NFL history to go 0-17. Then again, I don’t want to wager on the Jaguars as a field goal road favorite either. They’re obviously going to be better this year with Lawrence at the helm, but their defense is abysmal. It wouldn’t surprise me if the Texans pulled the upset because of Jacksonville’s horrific stop unit, but I’m still going to be on the Jaguars for office pool purposes.

THURSDAY THOUGHTS: Bradley Roby wasn’t going to play in this game anyway because of his suspension, but he was traded to the Saints. I wonder if the Texans will be less enthusiastic about this game after management traded one of their top players.

SATURDAY NOTES: The Texans will be missing two members of their secondary, as A.J. Bouye is gone, while Lonnie Johnson is sidelined with an injury. This is not enough to get me to bet on the Jaguars because I don’t want to back a first-time head coach and quarterback as road favorites, even against the pitiful Texans.

FINAL THOUGHTS: The sharps aren’t betting the home underdog for once. They’ve bet the Jaguars on Sunday morning, pushing the line up to -3.5 in most places. You can still get -3 -123 at Bookmaker. Given that three is the greatest key number in football, paying -123 is worth it.


The Motivation. Edge: None.
No edge found.


The Spread. Edge: None.

WalterFootball.com Calculated Spread: Jaguars -2.5.
Westgate Advance Point Spread: N/A.
Computer Model: Jaguars -3.
DVOA Spread: .


The Vegas. Edge: Texans.
A decent lean on the Jaguars.

Percentage of money on Jacksonville: 65% (51,000 bets)


The Trends. Edge: None.

Opening Line: Jaguars -2.5.

Opening Total: 45.5.

Weather: .

Week 1 NFL Pick: Jaguars 26, Texans 20
Jaguars -3 (0 Units) — Incorrect; $0
Over 44.5 (0 Units) — Correct; $0
Texans 37, Jaguars 21

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Arizona Cardinals (0-0) at Tennessee Titans (0-0)
Line: Titans by 3. Total: 54.
Sunday, September 12, 1:00 PM

The Matchup. Edge: None.

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TENNESSEE OFFENSE: I loved the Cardinals as a dark-horse Super Bowl contender entering this offseason. I bet them aggressively at 50/1 odds at the Circa in Las Vegas. However, their situation at cornerback has me worried. They lost Darqueze Dennard to an injury several weeks ago, and now Malcolm Brown has decided to walk away from the team for some reason.

This is not a good opponent to be battling concerns at cornerback because the Titans possess two mega-talented receivers in A.J. Brown and Julio Jones. It’s fair to wonder how the Cardinals will handle these players. I like Byron Murphy, but the cornerback opposite of him happens to be Robert Alford, who hasn’t played since 2018. Alford had some nice moments in Atlanta, but I don’t think he’s equipped to defend either Brown or Jones.

The Cardinals at least have some nice reinforcements in their front seven. J.J. Watt is now on the roster, so he’ll help disrupt the passing game by pressuring Ryan Tannehill. He’ll also help contain Derrick Henry, who often is not as effective early in the season as he is late in the year.

ARIZONA OFFENSE: The Cardinals aren’t the only team with cornerback issues in this game. Tennessee’s starting cornerbacks are projected to be Janoris Jenkins, who struggled with the Saints last year, and Kristian Fulton, a second-year player who didn’t show much as a rookie last season.

It’s safe to say that Kyler Murray will be able to take advantage of these liabilities, as DeAndre Hopkins, Christian Kirk and A.J. Green have a huge matchup edge in this game. As with the Cardinals, the Titans will need to pressure Murray to disrupt this, but they may have trouble doing so because Bud Dupree is likely not 100 percent after coming off a torn ACL in December. Jeffery Simmons will have success causing havoc in the interior, but not as much as he would’ve had last year because the Cardinals made a huge upgrade at center by signing Rodney Hudson.

RECAP: Several weeks ago, I planned on betting the Cardinals heavily in this game. Things have changed, however. Given Arizona’s severe problems at cornerback, the Titans have way too great of a matchup edge to wager heavily on Arizona.

That said, I still like the Cardinals. These teams appear to be evenly matched in the wake of Arizona’s cornerback woes, so I believe the two most likely outcomes of this game are the Titans and Cardinals each winning by three. By backing the underdog, we either get a push or a cover in those scenarios.

THURSDAY THOUGHTS: A.J. Brown missed Wednesday’s practice, but PFF’s Doug Kyed reported that it was just for rest. It’s still a situation to monitor.

SATURDAY NOTES: There’s sharp money coming in on the Cadinals, which isn’t too much of a surprise. If I had more faith in Robert Alford performing like even a mediocre cornerback, I’d have a much higher unit count on Arizona.

FINAL THOUGHTS: Even more sharp money has come in on Arizona. Again, this shouldn’t be a surprise. If the Cardinals had a better cornerback situation, I would be betting them heavily. This spread has dropped to +2.5 in some sportsbooks, but you can still get +3 -120 at BetUS and Bovada.


The Motivation. Edge: None.
No edge found.


The Spread. Edge: None.

WalterFootball.com Calculated Spread: Titans -1.
Westgate Advance Point Spread: N/A.
Computer Model: Titans -3.
DVOA Spread: .


The Vegas. Edge: Cardinals.
A slight lean on the Titans.

Percentage of money on Tennessee: 64% (78,000 bets)


The Trends. Edge: Titans.

Titans are 27-16 ATS in non-conference home games.

Opening Line: Titans -3.

Opening Total: 51.

Weather: Sunny, 83 degrees. Light wind.

Week 1 NFL Pick: Cardinals 34, Titans 31
Cardinals +3 (0 Units) — Correct; $0
Over 52.5 (0 Units) — Correct; $0
Cardinals 38, Titans 13

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Los Angeles Chargers (0-0) at Washington Redskins (0-0)
Line: Redskins by 2.5. Total: 45.5.
Sunday, September 12, 1:00 PM

The Matchup. Edge: Redskins.

If you missed it, I have an NFL Betting Props page, where I posted two new season total picks this past week. I’ll be adding to it as the season progresses!

Also, Confidence Pool Picks will return. They’ll be posted by Wednesday morning each week!

SAN ANGELES OFFENSE: It’s a good thing the Chargers spent lots of energy bolstering their offensive line this offseason because this would be a dreadful matchup for Justin Herbert otherwise. The Redskins have the best defensive line in the NFL, so Herbert wouldn’t have stood a chance last year.

It remains to be seen how effective Herbert’s blocking will be in this contest. Rookie left tackle Rashawn Slater will have his hands full against Chase Young, while Bryan Bulaga’s health will be apparent immediately because he’ll be battling Montez Sweat. Meanwhile, new center Corey Linsley’s presence will be huge against Jonathan Allen and Da’Ron Payne.

Even if Herbert has some time in the pocket on occasion, it’ll still be difficult for him to maintain drives because the Redskins possess a pair of talented cornerbacks, William Jackson and Kendall Fuller, who can deal with his receivers. Austin Ekeler will be the toughest matchup for the Redskins, however, given that their linebacking corps is a question mark, as rookie Jamin Davis is an unknown at the moment.

WASHINGTON OFFENSE: Ryan Fitzpatrick will have some protection issues as well in this game, as he’ll be staring down Joey Bosa on the blind side. The Redskins signed Charles Leno to protect Fitzpatrick, but he won’t stand a chance against Bosa. Luckily for Fitzpatrick, the rest of his blocking unit figures to do well against the Chargers.

Fitzpatrick’s receivers will have an easier time getting open as well. The Chargers are starting Michael Davis and rookie Asante Samuel Jr. at corner, so Terry McLaurin and Curtis Samuel have nice matchups. Logan Thomas does as well, as the Charger linebacking corps figures to be a weakness.

Antonio Gibson should have a great performance as well. The Chargers were mediocre at stopping the run last year, ranking 18th in rushing yards allowed, and the loss of Denzel Perryman could make them worse versus ground attacks. Gibson will have nice run blocking in front of him, so he’ll be able to take advantage of this positive matchup.

RECAP: I hate that the Redskins and Chargers are battling each other in Week 1 because both teams are underrated heading into the season. I plan on betting both constantly this year.

That said, there’s no reason the Redskins shouldn’t be favored by a field goal. I know teams don’t get the full three at home anymore, but I think the Redskins are a bit better than the Chargers. Take away the quarterback position, and I think you could argue that the Redskins have the best roster in the NFL. I know quarterback is a big deal, but I don’t consider Fitzpatrick to be a liability. I fully expect the Redskins to make the playoffs and win at least one game once they get there.

Excluding the spread being off, another reason to like the Redskins is that they have an experienced Ron Rivera going against new head coach Brandon Staley. This wasn’t always a big deal, but these weird offseasons have caused things to change, making it more difficult for new head coaches to win in Week 1.

Speaking of change, things may look different here once the injury report is released, but I currently like the Redskins for a few units.

THURSDAY THOUGHTS: Austin Ekeler missed Wednesday’s practice. Ekeler’s absence would be huge in this matchup.

SATURDAY NOTES: Austin Ekeler reportedly looked good in Friday’s practice, so I would count on him playing. Despite this, I continue to like the Redskins as a three-unit wager.

FINAL THOUGHTS: Austin Ekeler is “full go,” but that hasn’t bothered the sharps, who have been betting the Redskins heavily. They’ve moved this line to -2.5 in most places, but you can get -2 -111 at Bookmaker. The better thing to do, in my opinion, is to sell the half point to get -2.5 -107.


The Motivation. Edge: None.
No edge found.


The Spread. Edge: Redskins.

WalterFootball.com Calculated Spread: Redskins -3.
Westgate Advance Point Spread: N/A.
Computer Model: Redskins -2.
DVOA Spread: .


The Vegas. Edge: None.
Equal action.

Percentage of money on Washington: 59% (62,000 bets)


The Trends. Edge: Chargers.

Redskins are 11-21 ATS in September home games since 2001.

Opening Line: Chargers -1.

Opening Total: 44.5.

Weather: Sunny, 83 degrees. Light wind.

Week 1 NFL Pick: Redskins 23, Chargers 17
Redskins -2.5 -107 (3 Units) – Bookmaker — Incorrect; -$320
Under 45.5 (0 Units) — Correct; $0
Chargers 20, Redskins 16

---

Philadelphia Eagles (0-0) at Atlanta Falcons (0-0)
Line: Falcons by 3.5. Total: 48.5.
Sunday, September 12, 1:00 PM

The Matchup. Edge: None.

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ATLANTA OFFENSE: I got into an argument with my dad over Labor Day weekend about this game. He thinks the Eagles have no chance of winning, while I believe this to be a coin flip. His stance was that Matt Ryan happens to be a vastly superior quarterback in the matchup.

If that’s true, it’s only because Jalen Hurts sucks. Ryan is no longer a top-15 quarterback, and that will be apparent this season because he’ll be without Julio Jones and Alex Mack. Everyone talks about Jones, and rightfully so, given that Ryan’s numbers without Jones have been far worse over the years, but Mack’s absence will have a huge impact as well. The Falcons figure to be weak at two or three spots on their offensive line in the wake of Mack’s departure, so Philadelphia’s talented defensive line will be able to take advantage of that.

That said, the Falcons still have some positive matchups in this game. Calvin Ridley figures to do well versus Darius Slay, while Kyle Pitts and Hayden Hurst will dominate one of the worst linebacking corps in the NFL. The Eagles were very weak to tight ends last year, and they haven’t done anything to change that.

PHILADELPHIA OFFENSE: As for Hurts, he is definitely the inferior quarterback in this matchup, but he’ll be going against a much weaker defense than Ryan will. The Falcons have no pass rush outside of Grady Jarrett, so Philadelphia’s offensive line, which is healthy – for now – will be able to keep Hurts clean.

Hurts will use the ample time in the pocket to find some of his talented receivers. I don’t expect Atlanta’s terrible secondary to be able to deal with DeVonta Smith, or Quez Watkins, for that matter. Hurts will obviously utilize Dallas Goedert and Zach Ertz as well.

Of course, Hurts will try to hurt the Falcons by scrambling. Atlanta will be prepared for this with stud linebacker Deion Jones. The Falcons tend to be better versus the run than the pass, so they’ll at least be able to contain Philadelphia’s running threats.

RECAP: This is the complete opposite of the previous game. Whereas I love the Redskins and Chargers as sleepers this year, the Falcons and Eagles are two teams I’m eager to fade. It’s very unfortunate that they’re battling each other in Week 1.

This game was simpler for me when the spread was +3.5. The line has dropped to +3, however, because of some sharp money coming in on the Eagles. I agree with this movement because the two most likely results of this game are the Falcons and Eagles winning by three. At +3.5, you’d have a victory either way. At +3, it’s either a push or a win.

That said, I don’t anticipate betting this game at +3. There are just too many unknowns with both teams having new coaches.

THURSDAY THOUGHTS: As mentioned earlier, the sharps bet on the Eagles at +3.5. They haven’t touched Philadelphia at +3, however. At least, not yet…

SATURDAY NOTES: The sharps haven’t bet the Eagles at +3. It’s worth noting that Rodney McLeod is out for Philadelphia, which would be a bigger deal if the team didn’t sign Anthony Harris this offseason.

FINAL THOUGHTS: The pros bet the Eagles earlier in the week, but it seems as though other sharp action bet the Falcons at -3, which has pushed the line to -3.5 in all sportsbooks. If you want to bet Atlanta at -3, you can pay -126 at Bookmaker, which is worth it. Otherwise, the Eagles +3.5 -113 at Bookmaker is the best spread if you like the underdog.


The Motivation. Edge: Eagles.
The Falcons play the Buccaneers next week.


The Spread. Edge: Falcons.

WalterFootball.com Calculated Spread: Falcons -1.5.
Westgate Advance Point Spread: N/A.
Computer Model: Falcons -8.
DVOA Spread: .


The Vegas. Edge: None.
Equal action.

Percentage of money on Atlanta: 59% (67,000 bets)


The Trends. Edge: Eagles.

Eagles are 35-24 ATS as road underdogs since 2005.

Opening Line: Falcons -3.5.

Opening Total: 47.5.

Weather: Dome.

Week 1 NFL Pick: Falcons 26, Eagles 24
Eagles +3.5 (0 Units) — Correct; $0
Over 48.5 (0 Units) — Incorrect; $0
Parlay (Jets ML, Eagles ML) – 0.5 Units to win 3 Units — Incorrect; loss already deducted
Eagles 32, Falcons 6

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Seattle Seahawks (0-0) at Indianapolis Colts (0-0)
Line: Seahawks by 3. Total: 49.
Sunday, September 12, 1:00 PM

The Matchup. Edge: None.

If you’ve followed this site for a while, you might remember that I like to respond to my spam mails. It all started numerous years ago, when a man named Jon Wire from the “United Bank of Africoan” promised me an ATM card of some sort, so I responded as a man named Mister Compassion Chuck Norris, who was raised by wolves. The following season, I received e-mails from Richard Held and Loon Bruce, who told me I won a Facebook Award, which comes with a “lump sum pay out of (750,000.00 GBP).” Pretending to be Matthew Millen Kim, I sent out my application and fake money.

I’ve been messing around with spammers ever since, pretending to be Harvey Weinstein, Joe Biden, Ramsay Bolton and Walter White. I had plenty of Spam Mails last year, so check them out if you want to see me screw with spammers. I’ll have new ones every week this year beginning next week!

INDIANAPOLIS OFFENSE: Once upon a time, the Colts were three-point favorites in this matchup. That was prior to a devastating week in which both Carson Wentz and Quenton Nelson suffered injuries that were supposed to keep them out of the lineup for at least a month. Then, something odd happened. It was determined that both Wentz and Nelson didn’t have dire injuries after all, and that they could almost certainly play in Week 1.

Despite this, the spread hasn’t really moved, which seems like a mistake. If Wentz is under center in this matchup, he’ll have no issues moving the chains against one of the worst defenses in the NFL. The Seahawks have a dreadful defensive front that is incapable of putting pressure on the quarterback, save for Carlos Dunlap. This does not pair well with some sketchy cornerback play.

It’s safe to say that I don’t expect the Seahawks’ pass defense, which was ranked 31st in yards allowed last year, to improve very much. However, the fifth-ranked ground defense still should be potent enough to handle Jonathan Taylor and Marlon Mack, so perhaps that’s at least some hope for the Seahawks’ chances.

SEATTLE OFFENSE: While nothing was done this offseason to help the Seahawks’ pass defense, the front office at least made a move to bolster the aerial offense. They did this by acquiring Gabe Jackson, who figures to be a big upgrade at one of the guard spots. Jackson’s presence gives the Seahawks three solid blockers, with Duane Brown and Damien Lewis being the other two.

This is extremely important in this matchup because Wilson will be staring down the ultra-talented DeForest Buckner and first-round rookie edge rusher Kwity Paye, who enjoyed an excellent preseason. Wilson is often running for his life, especially against great defensive fronts, but that likely won’t be the case this year, barring some injuries to the offensive line.

Wilson will need to make good use of his time by connecting with his talented receivers, given that the Colts can handle scrambling quarterbacks well because of All-Pro linebacker Darius Leonard. The Colts did a great job last year of containing Lamar Jackson, though Jackson didn’t possess any receivers like D.K. Metcalf and Tyler Lockett.

RECAP: As I wrote earlier, the sportsbooks never readjusted this spread. This line would be correct if there was a chance Wentz and Nelson would be sidelined, but it seems as though they will play. Thus, we’re getting lots of value with the Colts, who should be favored by close to a field goal.

I plan on betting the Colts, but I’m not exactly sure what the unit count will be because there seems to be plenty of injury question marks in this game. I can’t wait to see the injury report later in the week because that will hopefully provide some clarity.

THURSDAY THOUGHTS: Carson Wentz has been cleared to play. That’s the good news for the Colts. The bad news is that both Quenton Nelson and Xavier Rhodes both missed Wednesday’s practice. If both are sidelined, I may switch to the Seahawks.

SATURDAY NOTES: It’s not ideal that the Colts will be playing without Xavier Rhodes on top of T.Y. Hilton and Eric Fisher/Sam Tevi. Still, this isn’t enough to keep me off the Colts and the nice line value we’re getting with them. If Quenton Nelson were also sidelined, I’d have interest in betting the Seahawks, but we don’t know his status yet. Carson Wentz’s uncertainty is keeping me from betting the Colts if Nelson plays, however.

FINAL THOUGHTS: I’m not betting this game because there are too many unknowns, and the sharps haven’t touched this one either. The best Seahawks line I’ve seen is -3 -105 at DraftKings. The best Colts line I’ve seen is +3 -109 at Bookmaker. With Quenton Nelson playing, I’m on the Colts, but I’m not confident in Carson Wentz’s health.


The Motivation. Edge: None.
No edge found.


The Spread. Edge: None.

WalterFootball.com Calculated Spread: Colts -1.
Westgate Advance Point Spread: N/A.
Computer Model: Colts -1.
DVOA Spread: .


The Vegas. Edge: Colts.
The public loves the Seahawks this week.

Percentage of money on Seattle: 72% (66,000 bets)


The Trends. Edge: None.

Opening Line: Colts -3.

Opening Total: 52.

Weather: Dome.

Week 1 NFL Pick: Colts 27, Seahawks 24
Colts +3 (0 Units) — Incorrect; $0
Over 49 (0 Units) — Incorrect; $0
Seahawks 28, Colts 16

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Minnesota Vikings (0-0) at Cincinnati Bengals (0-0)
Line: Vikings by 3. Total: 47.
Sunday, September 12, 1:00 PM

The Matchup. Edge: None.

Video of the Week: Even though the pandemic has been over for quite some time now, I’m sure most of you didn’t fly as much as you wanted this spring and summer. Don’t worry, George Carlin can tell you what you missed (thanks, Joseph P.):



The bit about stomping on the fat guy’s head and shoving the child aside to get to the emergency exit reminds me of the Seinfeld episode where George Costanza pushed the children aside because there was a fire.

MINNESOTA OFFENSE: I have grave concerns about both of these offenses. The Vikings, who often win in the preseason, couldn’t achieve a single victory in August because their offensive line was a disaster. I know the backups often played, but their starting unit looked putrid when it was on the field. The team looked like it missed Riley Reiff, who is now on the Bengals. As a result of Reiff’s departure, as well as first-round rookie Christian Darrisaw’s injury, the Vikings have some huge liabilities on the offensive line.

This includes left tackle, where Rashod Hill will be matched up against newly signed Trey Hendrickson. The former Saint figures to have his way with Hill, which will make it difficult for Kirk Cousins to consistently sustain drives. Luckily for Cousins, there will be some big-play opportunities because the Bengals will be starting some dreadful cornerbacks in the wake of Trae Waynes’ injury. I don’t think Chidobe Awuzie and the anemic Eli Apple are equipped to deal with Justin Jefferson and Adam Thielen.

Meanwhile, Dalvin Cook is expected to thrive. The Bengals were 29th in rushing yardage allowed last year, which doesn’t bode well for their matchup against Cook. There’s a chance this ranking could improve if D.J. Reader remains healthy and can perform like he did in Houston, but the Bengals just won’t be good enough to contain the talented runner.

CINCINNATI OFFENSE: There are a few reasons to be worried about the Bengals’ offense. Like the Vikings, Cincinnati has major problems blocking. Reiff was expected to help in that regard, but the Bengal offensive line really struggled in both training camp and the preseason. Things are not expected to suddenly improve against a Minnesota defensive front that will be welcoming back Danielle Hunter from last year’s injury.

The other problem is Joe Burrow. It’s unclear if he’s anywhere close to 100 percent after suffering a devastating knee injury last November. Burrow was excellent prior to getting hurt, but he threw just one pass in the preseason. It definitely seems likely that Burrow may not quite be himself until the 2022 season.

Burrow at least has talented receivers at his disposal, at least on paper. The issue in that regard is that No. 5 overall pick Ja’Marr Chase dropped everything in sight this summer. Chase had one reception and four drops during the preseason, so I’m not sure if he’ll be able to take advantage of this easy matchup.

RECAP: This is an extremely tough game to handicap because it’s unclear how Burrow will play. If he’s a shell of his former self, the Vikings should be able to win this contest easily, especially with Mike Zimmer having extra time to prepare. If, however, Burrow is somewhere close to what we saw last year, you could argue that there’s a ton of value with the Bengals. After all, the Vikings cannot block. A team like that doesn’t deserve to be favored by a field goal on the road.

Barring some major injury news, I do not plan on betting this contest. For office pool purposes, I’m going to fade the public and back the Bengals, but I am not confident in this selection at all.

THURSDAY THOUGHTS: I can’t wait to see some practice reports about Joe Burrow later in the week. I’m not sure if he’s 100 percent, and as Jacob said on our podcast, it seemed as though the Bengals were just showing the public that Burrow could play by using him for three snaps in the preseason finale. It reminded me of a communist government parading around a nuclear weapon that wasn’t operable.

SATURDAY NOTES: I found nothing discussing Joe Burrow at practice this week. There was a story about Ja’Marr Chase not being able to catch the ball because of stripes, but it wouldn’t surprise me if this turns into absolutely nothing. Would it shock anyone if Chase has a 120-yard, two-touchdown game to dominate the Vikings in a victory? I like the Bengals, but all the unknowns are making it difficult to bet this game.

FINAL THOUGHTS: This is much like the last game. I’d bet the home dog if I had more faith in the quarterback’s health. The sharps haven’t touched this game either. The best lines are at Bookmaker with -103 for the Vikings and -113 for the Bengals.


The Motivation. Edge: None.
No edge found.


The Spread. Edge: None.

WalterFootball.com Calculated Spread: Vikings -1.
Westgate Advance Point Spread: N/A.
Computer Model: Vikings -3.
DVOA Spread: .


The Vegas. Edge: Bengals.
Lots of action on the Vikings.

Percentage of money on Minnesota: 68% (60,000 bets)


The Trends. Edge: Vikings.

Mike Zimmer is 66-46 ATS as head coach of the Vikings.

Mike Zimmer is 12-8 ATS with extra time to prepare since 2015.

Opening Line: Vikings -3.

Opening Total: 48.

Weather: Sunny, 83 degrees. Mild wind, 13 mph.

Week 1 NFL Pick: Vikings 24, Bengals 23
Bengals +3 (0 Units) — Correct; $0
Under 47 (0 Units) — Incorrect; $0
Bengals 27, Vikings 24

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San Francisco 49ers (0-0) at Detroit Lions (0-0)
Line: 49ers by 9. Total: 46.
Sunday, September 12, 1:00 PM

The Matchup. Edge: 49ers.

The Adventures of Tom Brady’s Haircuts are complete. They may return in the future, but I had to stop them for now.

By the way, my other book is still available as well:



In this book, I talk about the top NFL Draft busts, and what would’ve happened had each team gone a different route. Also, I discuss why Roger Goodell has banned us from the NFL Combine.

SAN FRANCISCO OFFENSE: I’m excited to watch the 49ers’ offense in action, especially in this game. They rotated Jimmy Garoppolo and Trey Lance out of the lineup on multiple occasions during each of their first-team drives versus the Raiders, and it looked like this strategy would be very effective in regular-season action. The Raiders didn’t look like they had any idea what was happening, though it should be noted that they were using their backup defenders.

Still, it’s not like the Lions have much going for them defensively. They have some talented edge rushers, but they’ll be neutralized by San Francisco’s terrific tackles. Meanwhile, Alex Mack will help the blocking as well, shoring up the major weakness on the offensive line. The 49ers’ blockers should bully the Lions in the trenches, opening up huge lanes for Raheem Mostert and giving the two quarterbacks ample time to throw against a secondary that won’t be able to cover anyone. Perhaps Jeff Okudah will improve upon his dreadful rookie campaign, but even if that’s the case, the Lions don’t have much else in the secondary.

DETROIT OFFENSE: The 49ers had the best defense in the NFL in 2019. Things changed considerably last year because of countless injuries. Nick Bosa and Dee Ford barely played, while the secondary had numerous cornerbacks shuffling in and out of the lineup on a weekly basis. It was a disaster, but this is a new season.

Everyone is healthy now for the 49ers, which does not bode well for the Lions. If it weren’t for the Texans, I could confidently say that the Lions would have the worst offense in the NFL this year. Jared Goff stinks, and his truly horrible receiving corps won’t do him any favors. He won’t even be able to rely upon D’Andre Swift, who is likely to miss this game. Goff’s protection might even be shaky. The offensive line was supposed to be Detroit’s calling card in the wake of the Penei Sewell selection at No. 7 overall in the 2021 NFL Draft, but Sewell struggled in the preseason.

RECAP: It’ll be shocking if this isn’t a blowout. The matchups in this game are completely lopsided in the 49ers’ favor. This includes the coaching battle, as the experienced Kyle Shanahan will be matching wits with Dan Campbell, who isn’t technically a brand-new head coach because he was the interim head coach for the Dolphins in 2015, but he’s still learning things in Detroit.

It’s not ideal that this spread is above a touchdown, but it could be argued that if this game were taking place in Week 8, and everyone was aware of the vast disparity between these teams, this line would be in the double digits.

I’m going to bet a few units on the 49ers. I don’t see a bear case for them, outside of the possibility that they may not take the Lions seriously, much like the Colts versus the Jaguars in Week 1 last year. However, they don’t have anything to look forward to – next week’s game is against the Eagles – and even though this is an early start time on the East Coast, the 49ers have done well in that situation under Shanahan.

THURSDAY THOUGHTS: I have no major update about this game, so I’ll let you know that the 49ers are my pick on the Survivor Pool Advice page.

SATURDAY NOTES: Taylor Decker is out, which is huge. The Lions don’t even know how they’re going to start their five blockers, as Decker being sidelined is a problem because backup swing tackle Tyrell Crosby is also on injured reserve. Detroit suddenly has a mess of an offensive line staring down Nick Bosa, Arik Armstead and Dee Ford, which is a big mismatch in San Francisco’s favor. I’m increasing my unit count to four. Here’s to hoping the 49ers don’t overlook the Lions!

SATURDAY NOTES II: I’m pairing the 49ers with the Rams in a teaser. The best chances of winning a teaser is taking the line through key numbers of three, six and seven, and that’s what we’re doing with both of these teams.

FINAL THOUGHTS: This line has moved to -9.5 because of public money with no resistance from the sharps. I love the 49ers this week because of Detroit’s offensive line woes. The best line is -9 -108 at Bookmaker.


The Motivation. Edge: Lions.
Will the 49ers overlook the Lions?


The Spread. Edge: None.

WalterFootball.com Calculated Spread: 49ers -8.
Westgate Advance Point Spread: N/A.
Computer Model: 49ers -9.
DVOA Spread: .


The Vegas. Edge: Lions.
No surprise here.

Percentage of money on San Francisco: 67% (96,000 bets)


The Trends. Edge: None.

Opening Line: 49ers -7.5.

Opening Total: 46.

Weather: Dome.

Week 1 NFL Pick: 49ers 31, Lions 10
49ers -9 -108 (4 Units) – Bookmaker — Incorrect; -$430
Under 46 (0 Units) — Incorrect; $0
Teaser: 49ers -2.5, Rams -1.5 (2 Units) — So far, so good…
49ers 41, Lions 33



Week 1 NFL Picks – Late Games
Browns at Chiefs, Dolphins at Patriots, Packers at Saints, Broncos at Giants, Bears at Rams, Ravens at Raiders




Prop/Teaser/Parlay Picks
A list of some of my favorite team/player prop picks this week
(Offense & defensive ROY picks to be counted whenever winners are announced.) Picks carried over on a week-to-week basis will be in black.

Prop/teaser/parlay picks posted in Week 1 NFL Picks – Late Games



NFL Picks - Nov. 20


2025 NFL Mock Draft - Nov. 20


NFL Power Rankings - Nov. 19


Fantasy Football Rankings - Sept. 4




SUB MENU






My Team-by-Team ATS Record
This section shows how well I do when picking each team this year. The purpose is to see how well I read each team. Pushes are not displayed. Winning/losing streak in parentheses.

Cowboys: 6-3	Bears: 5-5	Bucs: 6-4	49ers: 6-4
Eagles: 5-5	Lions: 9-1	Falcons: 6-5	Cardinals: 8-2
Giants: 3-6	Packers: 6-3	Panthers: 4-6	Rams: 5-5
Redskins: 5-5	Vikings: 4-6	Saints: 5-6	Seahawks: 6-3
Bills: 4-7	Bengals: 2-9	Colts: 6-5	Broncos: 7-4
Dolphins: 4-6	Browns: 3-7	Jaguars: 3-7	Chargers: 6-3
Jets: 6-5	Ravens: 5-5	Texans: 5-6	Chiefs: 4-5
Patriots: 6-3	Steelers: 4-6	Titans: 6-3	Raiders: 5-5
Divisional: 21-23 (2011-23: 608-561)	2x Game Edge: 18-14 (2011-23: 401-387)	2x Motivation Edge: 31-25 (2011-23: 510-441)	2x Spread Edge: 21-30 (2011-23: 239-211)
2x Vegas Edge: 33-47 (2011-23: 448-446)	2x Trend Edge: 12-8 (2011-23: 321-293)	Double Edge: 13-16 (2011-23: 207-185)	Triple Edge: 4-8 (2011-23: 33-37)