NFL Picks Against the Spread: Week 1, 2021

2021 NFL Picks: 0-0 ($0)

NFL Picks (2020): 138-124-7 (+$9,350)
NFL Picks (2019): 148-128-9 (+$1,200)
NFL Picks (2018): 140-134-12 (+$845)
NFL Picks (2017): 137-147-10 (-$4,300)
NFL Picks (2016): 148-127-10 (+$780)
NFL Picks (2015): 133-138-10 (-$3,215)
NFL Picks (2014): 143-133-7 (-$1,885)
NFL Picks (2013): 144-131-8 (+$7,825)
NFL Picks (2012): 130-145-8 (-$7,445)
NFL Picks (2011): 137-133-12 (-$1,335)
NFL Picks (2010): 144-131-8 (+$5,880)
NFL Picks (2009): 151-124-9 (+$4,235)
NFL Picks (2008): 136-125-6 (+$6,105)
NFL Picks (2007): 162-135-10 (+$3,585)
If you don’t quite understand the line, total or anything else, go to my Sports Betting FAQ.

Vegas betting action updated Sept. 12, 11:30 a.m. Follow @walterfootball for updates.

Go to Week 1 NFL Picks – Early Games

Cleveland Browns (0-0) at Kansas City Chiefs (0-0)
Line: Chiefs by 5. Total: 54.5.
Sunday, September 12, 4:25 PM

The Matchup. Edge: Chiefs.

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KANSAS CITY OFFENSE: The last time we saw Patrick Mahomes, he was running for his life in the Super Bowl. His offensive line had countless injuries and consequently couldn’t block Tampa Bay’s elite defensive front. The Browns have plenty of talent on their line as well with Myles Garrett and Jadeveon Clowney rushing from the edge.

Luckily for Mahomes, his front office made numerous upgrades to his blocking this offseason. Mahomes should have much more time in the pocket in this game, which he’ll need because the Browns made some excellent upgrades to their secondary during the offseason, acquiring John Johnson, Troy Hill and Greg Newsome. Still, it’s impossible to contain Tyreek Hill.

Travis Kelce figures to have an even better matchup. The linebacking corps is the weakness of the Browns’ defense. Rookie Jeremiah Owusu-Koramoah told the media that he’s ready for Kelce, but that is unlikely to be true. He will almost certainly be humbled in his first game.

CLEVELAND OFFENSE: The Chiefs basically did what the Browns accomplished ahead of the 2020 season. Cleveland spent lots of energy upgrading its blocking, which paid dividends last year. Baker Mayfield disappointed in 2019, but rebounded nicely this past season. The entire blocking unit returned for 2021, which bodes well for the Browns.

Mayfield will need that blocking against the Chiefs, who possess Chris Jones, one of the top defensive linemen in the NFL. They were using Jones on the edge this preseason and saw some excellent results. They could line him up against second-year left tackle Jedrick Wills, who may not be able to deal with him. Still, Mayfield should have enough time to locate Odell Beckham Jr., Jarvis Landry and Austin Hooper.

Of course, you can’t discuss the Browns’ offense without mentioning Nick Chubb and Kareem Hunt. They’re often a dominant tandem, though that wasn’t the case in the playoff loss to the Chiefs in January. They combined for 101 rushing yards, which won’t be good enough if the Browns are to pull the upset.

RECAP: I love backing elite coaches who have extra time to prepare. Andy Reid obviously qualifies. He’s 6-2 against the spread as head coach of the Chiefs in Week 1 games. The last time he failed to cover in Week 1 was back in 2016 when he beat the Chargers by only six as a seven-point favorite.

The Chiefs should be able to win by at least six in this matchup. They were up, 22-10, against the Browns in the playoffs before Mahomes got hurt. The Browns ended up covering the spread because of a back-door touchdown, but I highly doubt that would have occurred if Mahomes didn’t suffer an injury. And remember, all of this happened with Mahomes getting no help from his offensive line. Things will be much different this time.

I love the Chiefs this week. This spread isn’t high enough, especially when considering the colossal advantage Reid possesses with extra time to prepare.

THURSDAY THOUGHTS: Jadeveon Clowney missed Wednesday’s practice with an illness, but it wasn’t a very minor illness, so he should be fine for this game. Meanwhile, the sharps bet this down to +5.5, but I still love the Chiefs.

SATURDAY NOTES: Some sharp money has driven this down to +5.5, but I still love the Chiefs. Nothing has changed from my analysis earlier in the week, save for the possibility of Odell Beckham Jr. being sidelined.

SUNDAY MORNING NOTES: My final thoughts will be posted around 3:30-3:45. Many are waiting on Odell Beckham Jr. injury news, but I don’t really care too much about it. Honestly, I’d rather him play at less than 100 percent.

FINAL THOUGHTS: There are major injury updates for both teams. The Browns will be without Beckham, which isn’t really a big deal because they have two other solid receivers. The Chiefs, meanwhile, won’t have Tyrann Mathieu or Frank Clark. This is a swing in the Browns’ favor. I thought about changing the unit count, but I’m not going to do so. There was sharp action on the Browns at +6, but other pro money came in on Kansas City at -5. The best line I see is at BetUS (-5 -110).

The Motivation. Edge: None.
No edge found.

The Spread. Edge: None.

WalterFootball.com Calculated Spread: Chiefs -6.5.
Westgate Advance Point Spread: N/A.
Computer Model: Chiefs -6.
DVOA Spread: .

The Vegas. Edge: Browns.

Lots of public money on the Chiefs.

Percentage of money on Kansas City: 65% (75,000 bets)

The Trends. Edge: Chiefs.

Chiefs are 21-10 ATS in season openers at home since 1971.

Patrick Mahomes is 43-9 SU, 30-20 ATS (23-12 ATS when not favored by double digits.)

Opening Line: Chiefs -6.

Opening Total: 52.5.

Weather: Sunny, 90 degrees. Mild wind, 13 mph.

Week 1 NFL Pick: Chiefs 34, Browns 24
Chiefs -5.5 (5 Units) — Incorrect; -$550
Over 54.5 (0 Units) — Correct; $0
Chiefs 33, Browns 29

Miami Dolphins (0-0) at New England Patriots (0-0)
Line: Patriots by 3.5. Total: 43.5.
Sunday, September 12, 4:25 PM

The Matchup. Edge: None.

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NEW ENGLAND OFFENSE: I saw a graphic on Twitter today where their various NFL Network analysts posted their playoff predictions. All of them had the Patriots making the postseason as a wild card team, while the Dolphins were nowhere to be found. I thought this was extremely curious, given that the Dolphins are a slightly better team than the Patriots.

The reason for all this Patriot hype is that everyone is on the Mac Jones bandwagon. Jones looked good in the preseason, but he never played against any starters. I urge people to be careful when making their predictions based solely on what they witness in the preseason. Remember, Daniel Jones looked like the second coming of John Elway in his preseason debut, and he even played against starters. Nathan Peterman and Kyle Sloter are the Peyton Manning and Tom Brady of the preseason. Almost none of what you watch in August is real.

I expect Brian Flores to concoct a terrific game plan against Jones. Flores is one of the top defensive coaches in the NFL, so he’ll have some confusing schemes prepared for Jones. Granted, Jones has nice blocking in front of him, but I would be shocked if he came away from this game with fewer than three turnovers, especially given the Dolphins’ penchant for creating take-aways.

MIAMI OFFENSE: Tua Tagovailoa also thrived in the preseason, but there are some major differences between what he and Jones accomplished. Tagovailoa saw a bit of action against some starters, and he also was expected to make a big leap in his second season compared to his rookie campaign because he would be further removed from his gruesome injury. Tagovailoa also has far better talent surrounding him. Will Fuller will miss this game with a suspension, but he still has DeVante Parker, Jaylen Waddle, Preston Williams and Mike Gesicki at his disposal. The Patriots often have the talent in the secondary to combat a matchup like this, but Stephon Gilmore is on the PUP list.

Gilmore’s absence is a huge boon for the Dolphins, who were able to pull away from the Patriots in last year’s matchup when the All-Pro cornerback got hurt. The Dolphins needed this advantage because they are outmatched elsewhere, and that would be in the trenches. There’s a chance Austin Jackson could miss this game with a very minor illness, which would mean that Greg “Mr. Reliable” Little would be stationed at left tackle versus Matthew Judon. It’s a lopsided matchup regardless, but it’s obviously more dire with Little on the blind side, so I would expect Tagovailoa to release the ball as quickly as possible.

RECAP: I mentioned in the Chiefs-Browns write-up that I love backing elite coaches with extra time to prepare. Bill Belichick obviously qualifies in that regard. He has an excellent track record in Week 1, which includes last year’s win and cover versus the Dolphins.

However, there are two issues that will prevent me from betting the Patriots. First, I love Flores, and I think he might be entering that pantheon as coaches who can be backed with extra time to prepare. Second, Flores has a big edge by going against a rookie quarterback. Something else I love doing is backing great defensive coaches versus rookie signal-callers. As mentioned earlier, I expect Jones to struggle versus Flores’ schemes.

With that in mind, I’ll be on the Dolphins, but I don’t anticipate betting this game because I have no desire to fade Belichick in Week 1.

THURSDAY THOUGHTS: Jacob and I got into an argument about this game, which was our greatest disagreement (we tied for 84th in the Supercontest last year.) Check out the video here:

SATURDAY NOTES: I was hoping to get some injury news for some better clarity on this game, but that did not happen. The only item was Austin Jackson being cleared from his very minor illness. My position is still zero units on the Dolphins.

SUNDAY MORNING NOTES: The sharps came in on the Patriots on Sunday morning, so they agree with Jacob! The Dolphins look more appealing at +3.5, but I’m still not going to bet them.

FINAL THOUGHTS: The disappointing performances of Trevor Lawrence and Zach Wilson today make me more bullish in my Dolphins prediction, as Mac Jones could be just as bad. However, I don’t really want to fade the Patriots because Bill Belichick has had so much time to prepare fr this game. The best line is 3.5 -108 for either side at Bookmaker. The sharps bet the Patriots at -3, but not -3.5.

The Motivation. Edge: None.
No edge found.

The Spread. Edge: None.

WalterFootball.com Calculated Spread: Patriots -1.
Westgate Advance Point Spread: N/A.
Computer Model: Patriots -3.
DVOA Spread: .

The Vegas. Edge: Dolphins.

A good chunk of action on the Mac Jones hype train.

Percentage of money on New England: 65% (50,000 bets)

The Trends. Edge: None.

Dolphins are 24-12 ATS as a road underdog of less than 5 since 2008.

Opening Line: Patriots -2.5.

Opening Total: 45.5.

Weather: Partly cloudy, 79 degrees. Mild wind, 12 mph.

Week 1 NFL Pick: Dolphins 23, Patriots 20
Dolphins +3.5 (0 Units) — Correct; $0
Under 43.5 (0 Units) — Correct; $0
Dolphins 17, Patriots 16

Denver Broncos (0-0) at New York Giants (0-0)
Line: Broncos by 2.5. Total: 41.5.
Sunday, September 12, 4:25 PM

The Matchup. Edge: Broncos.

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NEW YORK OFFENSE: The Giants likely have the worst offensive line in the NFL. Their front five is comprised of Andrew Thomas, who resembled a human turnstile in the preseason, anemic guard Shane Lemieux, horrible center Will Gates, right guard Will Hernandez, who is just OK, and decrepit right tackle Nate Solder. The Giants had a chance to select Tristan Wirfs and Rashawn Slater in the past two drafts, yet failed to do so.

Daniel Jones will pay the price for this incompetence against the Broncos. There’s no chance his tackles will be able to keep Von Miller and Bradley Chubb out of the backfield, while the interior blockers will have problems with Shelby Harris and Dre’Mont Jones.

We’ve gotten to the third paragraph, and we haven’t even touched on Saquon Barkley’s health yet. Barkley should play in this game, but could be limited. I wouldn’t expect much from him versus Denver’s defense anyway. Daniel Jones, meanwhile, will be responsible for lots of turnovers, which he is wont to do, especially against teams with great defensive fronts.

DENVER OFFENSE: The Giants’ offense is a total disaster, but they at least have some talent on this side of the ball. Their secondary is actually pretty good, with James Bradberry serving as a shutdown corner. Adoree Jackson and Logan Ryan will also be able to defend Denver’s many talented receivers.

The difference between the Denver and New York defenses, however, is the pass rush. The Giants lost Kyler Fackrell this offseason, so they don’t really have much of an edge rush. Teddy Bridgewater, meanwhile, is protected much better than Daniel Jones happens to be. He’s also a careful quarterback – save for what transpired in Week 17 last year – so I wouldn’t expect any turnovers from him.

That said, the Giants have some behemoths in the interior of their defensive line. Dexter Lawrence and Leonard Williams will create some havoc, preventing the Broncos from running the ball very well.

RECAP: The Broncos have an enormous matchup edge in this game. They have an excellent front seven, which will be battling what could be the worst offensive line in the NFL. I don’t see how the Giants overcome that and win this contest.

I love the Broncos this week. I still wish the line were -2.5, but the sharps bet this number up to -3. It’s still very appealing to me. When I initially saw that the Broncos were favored by just three, I expected the public to be pounding them like the crazy, but that is not the case. The betting action is even, which just shows how uninformed the public happens to be. The Broncos have one of the best rosters in the NFL; they’re much like the Redskins, where if you remove quarterback, they have an elite squad. Bridgewater, like Ryan Fitzpatrick, can hold down the fort very well, especially in easy matchups like this.

At any rate, this will be a five-unit wager, barring any surprises on the injury report.

THURSDAY THOUGHTS: Evan Engram missed Wednesday’s practice. His absence in this game wouldn’t move the needle very much, however, especially with Kyle Rudolph on the roster.

SATURDAY NOTES: The only injury update is to Bradley Chubb, who is questionable after two limited practices on Thursday and Friday. I’m still heavy on the Broncos.

SUNDAY MORNING NOTES: There’s a chance we might see -2.5 prior to kickoff. It seems like there’s some sharp action on the Giants, despite the reports saying that Saquon Barkley will be used “sparingly.”

FINAL THOUGHTS: We have a -2.5 available at Bookmaker and DraftKings. The sharps are on the Giants, perhaps because Bradley Chubb is sidelined. The injury is a big deal, and it’s enough for me to drop my unit count to four, but I still love Denver, especially at less than a field goal.

The Motivation. Edge: None.
No edge found.

The Spread. Edge: None.

WalterFootball.com Calculated Spread: Broncos -3.
Westgate Advance Point Spread: N/A.
Computer Model: Broncos -3.
DVOA Spread: .

The Vegas. Edge: None.
Not enough action on the Broncos.

Percentage of money on Denver: 55% (55,000 bets)

The Trends. Edge: None.

Opening Line: Pick.

Opening Total: 42.5.

Weather: Sunny, 85 degrees. Mild wind, 13 mph.

Week 1 NFL Pick: Broncos 24, Giants 13
Broncos -2.5 -108 (4 Units) – Bookmaker — Correct; +$400
Under 41.5 (0 Units) — Correct; $0
Broncos 27, Giants 13

Green Bay Packers (0-0) vs. New Orleans Saints (0-0)
Line: Packers by 3.5. Total: 49.5.
Sunday, September 12, 4:25 PM
at Jacksonville

The Matchup. Edge: Packers.

A reminder that Jerks of the Week for this week is up, so just click the link. This week’s jerks entry is part of the Las Vegas series. I discuss some of the horrible hotels on the north side of the Strip!

GREEN BAY OFFENSE: This is another 4 p.m. game that contains a very lopsided matchup. This time, it’s Green Bay passing attack versus the New Orleans cornerbacks. The Saints lost both Patrick Robinson and Brian Poole to injured reserve, which means that their only outside cornerbacks heading into this week, besides Marshon Lattimore, were the pedestrian Ken Crawley and third-round rookie Paulson Adebo. Desmond Trufant was signed, but he wasn’t good enough to survive Chicago’s final cuts. This wasn’t a surprise, given how horrible he was for the Lions last year.

Having poor cornerback play is an easy way to lose against Aaron Rodgers. The long-time Packer quarterback will easily torch the Saints by connecting to Davante Adams and his other receivers. Marquez Valdes-Scantling reportedly enjoyed a terrific offseason, while I was very impressed with Malik Taylor’s play in the preseason.

The Saints will need to counter this aerial onslaught by pressuring Rodgers as much as possible. Pro Bowl left tackle David Bakhtiari is out, but he’s the only blocker the Packers are missing at the moment. Meanwhile, the Saints lost some personnel in their front seven as well this offseason, including Trey Hendrickson, so their pass rush won’t be as potent.

NEW ORLEANS OFFENSE: The Saints also lost some key players on this side of the ball. Drew Brees is the obvious one, but Michael Thomas probably won’t be too far behind him. Thomas is on the PUP list after delaying his surgery for so long. The Saints have a viable receiver in Marquez Callaway, but that’s about it. Tre’Quan Smith sucks.

The Packers obviously have some issues at cornerback, as we saw in the NFC Championship last year, but they should be able to handle a receiving corps comprised of Callaway and not much else. Besides, it’s not like Brees is throwing the ball to Callaway. It’s Jameis Winston, who could make some great throws and then toss a couple of pick-sixes.

Alvin Kamara will at least be able to pick up chunks of yardage, giving the Saints some hope of hanging with the Packers. I don’t like the Packer linebacking corps, so Kamara’s matchup looks very positive.

RECAP: There’s no way I’m not betting the Packers. They have way too much of an edge in the passing game with the Saints having just three viable outside cornerbacks. Rodgers is going to destroy New Orleans’ secondary.

There is another reason to be very optimistic about the Packers’ chances. That would be the distraction that Hurricane Ida has caused for the Saints. They are a homeless team that has to play this game in Jacksonville, and many of the players were obviously distracted with worrying about their homes and families. I don’t know how they can get up for this contest.

This is one of my top bets this week. I’m all over the Packers unless they have surprise injuries late in the week.

THURSDAY THOUGHTS: The Saints traded for Bradley Roby, but he’s suspended and cannot play until Week 2. He can’t be available soon enough because one of the Saints’ three outside cornerbacks, Ken Crawley, missed Wednesday’s practice.

SATURDAY NOTES: Ken Crawley is out, as is Tre’Quan Smith, which means the Saints are missing two of their top three receivers and three of their top four outside cornerbacks. Also, this might be nothing, but Terron Armstead popped up on the injury report with a back issue. He’ll play, but back issues tend to be problematic, so Smith may not be 100 percent. Despite all this, sharp action has come in on the Saints, which is puzzling to me. I still love the Packers.

SATURDAY NOTES II: Marshon Lattimore has now been listed as questionable. Late-week downgrades are never a good sign, especially less than 24 hours prior to the game. If Lattimore is sidelined, the Saints will be down their top four cornerbacks. If he plays, he won’t be 100 percent while trying to cover Davante Adams. I’m locking in this pick now before the spread moves. The best line is -3.5 -103 at Bookmaker.

SUNDAY MORNING NOTES: This line has moved to -4, so I was glad I was able to get -3.5 -103 on Saturday night when the Marshon Lattimore news broke.

FINAL THOUGHTS: Marshon Lattimore is playing, but the Saints aren’t out of the woods yet because he may not be 100 percent after that late-week downgrade. I already locked in this pick, but if I hadn’t, -4 -108 is the best line (at Bookmaker). There doesn’t appear to be any sharp action today.

The Motivation. Edge: Packers.

Hurricane Ida is a huge distraction for the Saints.

The Spread. Edge: None.

WalterFootball.com Calculated Spread: Packers -4.
Westgate Advance Point Spread: N/A.
Computer Model: Packers -3.
DVOA Spread: .

The Vegas. Edge: Saints.

A good amount of action on the Packers.

Percentage of money on Green Bay: 68% (70,000 bets)

The Trends. Edge: Packers.

Aaron Rodgers is 109-74 ATS since 2009.

Saints are 2-14 ATS in Weeks 1-2 since 2013.

Opening Line: Packers -3.

Opening Total: 50.

Weather: Cloudy, 82 degrees. Mild wind, 11 mph.

Week 1 NFL Pick: Packers 38, Saints 27
Packers -3.5 -103 (5 Units) – Bookmaker — Incorrect; -$515
Over 49.5 (0 Units) — Incorrect; $0
Saints 38, Packers 3

Chicago Bears (0-0) at Los Angeles Rams (0-0)
Line: Rams by 7.5. Total: 46.5.
Sunday, September 12, 8:20 PM

The Matchup. Edge: Rams.

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LOS ANGELES OFFENSE: The Bears are perceived to have a great defense, but I’m not sure that’s the case anymore. They have some excellent players like Khalil Mack and Akiem Hicks in their front seven, while Eddie Goldman and Roquan Smith are also solid role players. Kareem Jackson and Tashaun Gipson form a nice safety tandem as well. However, the Bears have a glaring hole on this side of the ball, and that would be at cornerback.

Chicago lost Kyle Fuller this offseason, then signed Desmond Trufant, only to cut him recently. Their starting cornerbacks as a result are Jaylon Johnson and Kindle Vildor, which will make them very weak to talented quarterbacks whose offensive lines will be able to shield them from Mack and Hicks.

Matthew Stafford qualifies in this regard. I can’t wait to watch Stafford play this year because he’s never been coached well in his career. Sean McVay will get the most out of him, as Stafford will benefit from that, as well as a strong offensive line and quality receiving corps. He shouldn’t have any issues navigating through the Bears’ crappy cornerbacks.

LOS ANGELES OFFENSE: While Stafford will almost certainly fare well versus the Bears, the same can’t be said of Andy Dalton, who almost feels like a sacrificial lamb against the Rams’ elite defense.

Justin Fields should be starting for the Bears, but I’m fine with Dalton getting crushed by Aaron Donald and company before Fields inevitably takes over in Week 2. Dalton won’t be protected very well versus Donald and the rest of the Rams’ front. Meanwhile, Allen Robinson and Darnell “Mad Eye” Mooney will be smothered by the Rams’ talented cornerbacks.

The Bears will attempt to run the ball with David Montgomery, but that won’t be very effective. The Rams were third in rushing yards allowed last year, and it’s not like their focus will be taken away from Montgomery with Dalton under center.

RECAP: McVay qualifies as an elite coach who greatly benefits from having extra time to prepare. McVay is a perfect 4-0 straight up and against the spread in Week 1 games. This shouldn’t be a surprise at all, given how gifted of a coach he is. The kicker is that McVay has never had an above-average quarterback at his disposal prior to this season, so I can’t wait to see what happens with Stafford.

I don’t see how the Bears will compete with the Rams. Asking Dalton to quarterback a game against an elite defense just seems like a recipe for disaster, so I fully anticipate a blowout. The lopsided betting action is the only concern I have, but it’s a minor one.

THURSDAY THOUGHTS: I’m holding off until a -7 is available. Seven is the second-most-important key number in football. The best -7 I see has -127 juice at Bookmaker.

SATURDAY NOTES: The Bears have half their roster on the injury report already. Most will play, but I wonder if many of the players aren’t 100 percent. Eddie Goldman will definitely be sidelined, which will allow the Rams to run better than expected.

SUNDAY MORNING NOTES: This spread has risen to the -8/-8.5 range. I may lock this in around 4 p.m.

FINAL THOUGHTS: I’m almost expecting the worst to happen after that 3-hour Murphy’s Law window we just had, with the 49ers blowing their cover, the Chiefs failing on a two-point conversion at the end (with the Browns getting one earlier in the game), and the Packers looking like the worst team in the NFL. I still love the Rams though, and nothing has changed. The best line is -8.5 -110 at DraftKings. The sharps haven’t touched this game.

The Motivation. Edge: None.
No edge found.

The Spread. Edge: None.

WalterFootball.com Calculated Spread: Rams -7.5.
Westgate Advance Point Spread: N/A.
Computer Model: Rams -9.
DVOA Spread: .

The Vegas. Edge: Bears.

Tons of money on the Rams.

Percentage of money on Los Angeles: 88% (72,000 bets)

The Trends. Edge: None.

Opening Line: Rams -7.

Opening Total: 44.5.

Weather: Dome.

Week 1 NFL Pick: Rams 27, Bears 10
Rams -8.5 (4 Units) – DraftKings — Correct; +$400
Under 46.5 (0 Units) — Incorrect; $0
Teaser: 49ers -2.5, Rams -1.5 (2 Units) — Correct; +$200
Rams 34, Bears 14

Baltimore Ravens (0-0) at Las Vegas Raiders (0-0)
Line: Ravens by 4. Total: 50.5.
Monday, September 13, 8:15 PM

The Matchup. Edge: Ravens.

This week on ESPN, we’re going to have awful announcers calling the shots instead the great preseason homers like Kevin Reilly, Ron Wolfley and Don Tollefson, inept ESPN guys Emmitt, Herman Edwards, and aloof people like Jay Cutler. Here’s what it would sound like if some of these dudes (and some special guests) were calling this game:

Reilly: Welcome to the city of Las Vegas, otherwise known as Sin City, where the Oakland Raiders will be battling the Baltimore Colts. Guys, I hope you didn’t have as much difficulty getting your permission slip signed to go to Sin City as I did. Mother wouldn’t sign it unless my New Daddy promised to make sure I went to bed at 9 p.m. each night, so I’ll have to leave this game early unless New Daddy lets me stay up past my bedtime!

Cutler: For the 80th time, I don’t care.

Reilly: Thanks, New Daddy! Guys, let’s get to this game and some exciting announcements. First, the game. Guys, what do you think about Jerry Jacobs? I think he’s going to lead my fantasy team to victory. I have him and James Conner as my running backs.

Emmitt: Leah, your team maybe good enough to win the chocolate metal in the Olympic. He have a good strong start with Jerry Johnson, but then you fall off a clip with James Connington who probably not even gonna touch the balls when he play for the Steeler.

Reilly: Emmitt, you’re one of my best friends, and I hope you come to my sleepover next month, but you’re dead wrong about my team. James Conner is now the starting running back on the Phoenix Cardinals. Right, Tolly? That’s what your fantasy mag said.

Tollefson: Yes, I sold Kevin a fantasy football magazine with the best information, and all it cost him were his previous five allowances. I’m going to use my newfound fortune on sex slaves.

Reilly: Tolly, you shouldn’t be around girls because Mother says they have cooties and STDs. OK, now it’s time for the announcement. Joining us in the booth this year will be Joe Biden and Donald Trump! Joe Biden’s not really doing anything anyway, so he had time to talk about football every week, while Donald Trump was feeling lonely because he can’t log into Twitter, so he wanted to say some stuff to the nation.

Joe Biden: What do you mean George Trump isn’t doing anything anyway? I’ll have you know that I’m making a lot of big decisions in the- uhh- you know- you know the thing- the house thing- that’s the color that’s not black but the opposite- you know the thing. I’m making big decisions like what ice cream to get after supper. I like choco-choco chip.

Reilly: Thanks, Joe B-

Donald Trump: Excuse me, excuse me, wrong, wrong, Sleepy Joe doesn’t get chocolate chip ice cream after supper, wrong, wrong, excuse me, excuse me! Sleepy Joe doesn’t get ice cream after supper because he’s a loser, and he lost the election if there was no cheating – and believe me, there was lots of cheating, more cheating than you or anyone can ever imagine – and that’s because Sleepy Joe doesn’t do anything, and that includes not eating ice cream after dinner, excuse me, excuse me. Sleepy Joe eats so little ice cream that I call him No Ice Cream Sleepy Joe! You like that? You like that nickname? I call him No Ice Cream Sleepy Joe because he gets no ice cream!

Wolfley: DONALD TRUMP, YOU BETTER BE CAREFUL ABOUT LABELING PEOPLE AS NO ICE CREAM BECAUSE THE LAST 55 PEOPLE WHO WERE LABELED AS NO ICE CREAM WERE KILLED BY THE DEMON SPIRIT GIRL WITH THE LONG BLACK HAIR WHO EMERGES FROM THE SHADOWS.

Reilly: NEW DADDY, IS THAT DEMON SPIRIT GIRL REAL!?!?!? NOW I WON’T BE ABLE TO SLEEP AT NIGHT! SO SCARY!!!

Cutler: Ugh, look at what you idiots did. Now I’m going to have to actually do something instead of smoking cigarettes while watching paint dry.

Reilly: You’ll have to tuck me in and read me a bedtime story because I’m so scared, New Daddy!

Charles Davis: Kevin, it sounds like you’re scared of the Grudge girl, Kevin. Let’s think of some other scary monsters so you won’t be able to sleep, Kevin. Let’s begin with Michael Myers, Kevin. What about the clown from It, Kevin? Let’s talk about Ghostface from Scream, Kevin. How about the alien from Alien, Kevin? Why don’t we have a discussion about Chucky, Kevin? Coincidentally, Chucky is the nickname of one of the coaches here tonight, Kevin. Let’s discuss Leatherf-

Reilly: CHUCKY IS HERE TONIGHT!?!?!?!? AHHHHH, NEW DADDY SAVE MEEEEEE!!! We’ll be back after this!

BALTIMORE OFFENSE: The Ravens’ starting offense was on the field for one drive during the preseason. It was on that possession that J.K. Dobbins suffered a season-ending injury. While this was a shame for Dobbins’ career, it won’t affect the Ravens very much because they still have two capable backs on their roster, Gus Edwards and Ty’Son Williams. I suspect both will do quite well against a defense that was 24th in rushing yards allowed last year.

Of course, the Raiders will have to worry about Lamar Jackson’s scrambles the most. Their linebacking corps doesn’t seem equipped to stop Jackson, so I’m expecting a big game from the top scrambling quarterback in the NFL.

Speaking of the Raider linebackers, Mark Andrews figures to have a nice matchup as well. Jackson should do well throwing to him, as well as Marquise Brown and Sammy Watkins, given how bad the Raiders’ secondary is.

LAS VEGAS OFFENSE: The Raiders lost three offensive linemen this offseason. Their left side is still intact with Kolton Miller and Richie Incognito, but everything east of Incognito has changed. The blocking won’t be bad, however, if right tackle Alex Leatherf-, I mean, Leatherwood performs as well as Mike Mayock believes he will. Leatherwood was widely considered a reach by sports reporters who don’t know any better, but we know that a team was considering Leatherwood a few picks after the Raiders selected him.

Besides, it’s not yet clear how potent the Ravens’ pass rush will be. They used a first-round pick on Jayson Oweh, but he’s raw. Justin Houston is on the roster, but he may not have much remaining in the tank. If Baltimore can’t apply pressure on the quarterback, Derek Carr should have ample time in the pocket.

I don’t like the matchup that Carr’s receivers have against Baltimore’s cornerbacks, but Darren Waller should do well versus the linebackers. However, I don’t expect much out of Josh Jacobs, as Baltimore figures to be stout versus the run.

RECAP: If this game were played under normal conditions, I would be all over Baltimore. John Harbaugh is another elite coach who thrives in Week 1. The Ravens constantly destroy the opposition to start the season, and that’s because of Harbaugh’s excellent coaching.

However, there are two issues at hand, both of which fit in the psychological department. First, the Ravens have to battle the Chiefs next week. That’s a huge game for them. I don’t think it’s certain that the Ravens will overlook the Raiders, but they really need to prepare for Kansas City to finally beat them.

Second, this is a huge game for the Raiders. This is the first time they’ll be playing with fans inside their new stadium. The Death Star will be rocking, and the Raiders will be playing with lots more emotion than the Ravens.

I ultimately think the Raiders will jump out to an early lead, only to have the Ravens mount a comeback and prevail. They could cover in the process, much like the Rams did in this spot a couple of years ago, so if I were to bet this game, I would wager on the Raiders first-half line.

THURSDAY THOUGHTS: As I wrote earlier, I have interest in betting on the Raiders the first-half line. You can get +3 -108 (1H) at Bookmaker right now. More seriously, the Ravens may have lost Marcus Peters and Gus Edwards to season-ending injuries. This would not impact my analysis of this game. The Ravens will still run well with Ty’Son Williams and Le’Veon Bell. The Peters injury will hurt more for the rest of the regular season, but the Raiders don’t have the receivers to exploit his absence.

SATURDAY NOTES: There’s some major injury news for both teams, and I’m not even referring to the Peters and Edwards torn ACLs. For the Ravens, Jimmy Smith is questionable after being limited in practice Friday and Saturday. If he’s out, Baltimore’s cornerback group will be extremely thin. The Raiders, meanwhile, will be missing Richie Incognito, which means a severely lacking interior offensive line will be staring down Calais Campbell and Brandon Williams. This is huge for the Ravens. Depending on Smith’s status, I may end up betting the Ravens.

SUNDAY MORNING NOTES: We’re still waiting on Jimmy Smith’s status, so my opinion on this game could change Monday evening.

FINAL THOUGHTS: Jimmy Smith is out, which is a huge boon to the Raider passing attack. I’m concerned about their offensive line, but Baltimore’s cornerback situation is shot with both Peters and Smith sidelined. I also believe the Raiders have the motivation on their side. That said, I could see the Raiders getting out to a huge lead and blowing it, which they are wont to do in these spots. Thus, I’m going to bet the first-half line, as I suggested earlier. The best first-half line is +3 -123 at Bookmaker, so I’ll with that. The best spread period is +3.5 -110 at Bovada. The sharps, by the way, are betting the Raiders.

The Motivation. Edge: Raiders.

The Ravens could be looking ahead to the Chiefs, while the Raiders welcome fans into the Death Star for the first time.

The Spread. Edge: None.

WalterFootball.com Calculated Spread: Ravens -3.5.
Westgate Advance Point Spread: N/A.
Computer Model: Ravens -11.
DVOA Spread: .

The Vegas. Edge: None.
What happened to all the Ravens money?

Percentage of money on Baltimore: 57% (111,000 bets)

The Trends. Edge: Raiders.

Ravens are 5-11 ATS on the West Coast in franchise history.

Opening Line: Ravens -4.5.

Opening Total: 51.

Weather: Dome.

Week 1 NFL Pick: Ravens 31, Raiders 28
Raiders +3.5 (0 Units) — Correct; $0
Raiders First Half +3 -123 (2 Units) – Bookmaker — Incorrect; -$245
Over 50.5 (0 Units) — Correct; $0
Raiders 33, Ravens 27

week 1 NFL Picks – Early Games
Cowboys at Bucs, Eagles at Falcons, Steelers at Bills, Vikings at Bengals, 49ers at Lions, Cardinals at Titans, Seahawks at Colts, Chargers at Redskins, Jets at Panthers, Jaguars at Texans

Prop/Teaser/Parlay Picks
A list of some of my favorite team/player prop picks this week
(Offense & defensive ROY picks to be counted whenever winners are announced.) Picks carried over on a week-to-week basis will be in black.

Teaser:

NFL Picks - Dec. 11

2025 NFL Mock Draft - Dec. 11

NFL Power Rankings - Dec. 9

2026 NFL Mock Draft - Nov. 29

Fantasy Football Rankings - Sept. 4

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Last Week's NFL Picks Against The Spread (Week 14, 2024): 3-10 (-$2,620)
Last Week's 2-3 Unit NFL Picks (Week 14, 2024): 1-3 (-$665)
Last Week's 4-5 Unit NFL Picks (Week 14, 2024): 0-3 (-$1,490)
Last Week Over-Under (Week 14, 2024): 5-8 ($0)
Last Week's Prop/ML/Teaser/Parlay Picks (Week 14, 2024): -$265

2024 NFL Picks of the Month: 1-3, 25.0% (-$1,365)

2024 Season NFL Picks Against The Spread: 109-102-8, 51.7% (-$4,140)
2024 Season 2-3 Unit NFL Picks: 25-35-1, 40.0% (-$2,425)
2024 Season 4-5 Unit NFL Picks: 24-21, 53.3% (+$505)
2024 Season Over-Under: 101-103-4, 49.5% (+$95)
2024 Season Prop/ML/Teaser/Parlay Picks: +$420

1999 Season NFL Picks Against The Spread: 27-41-3 (39.7%)
2000 Season NFL Picks Against The Spread: 128-123-8 (51.0%)
2001 Season NFL Picks Against The Spread: 127-122-7 (51.0%)
2002 Season NFL Picks Against The Spread: 123-136-7 (47.5%)
2003 Season NFL Picks Against The Spread: 146-126-8 (53.7%)
2004 Season NFL Picks Against The Spread: 157-123-8 (56.1%)
2005 Season NFL Picks Against The Spread: 156-126-11 (55.3%)
2006 Season NFL Picks Against The Spread: 151-135-9 (52.8%)
2007 Season NFL Picks Against The Spread: 162-135-10, 54.5% (+$3,585)
2008 Season NFL Picks Against The Spread: 148-140-7, 51.4% (+$6,105)
2009 Season NFL Picks Against The Spread: 151-124-9, 54.9% (+$4,235)
2010 Season NFL Picks Against The Spread: 144-131-8, 52.4% (+$5,880)
2011 Season NFL Picks Against The Spread: 137-133-12, 50.7% (-$1,335)
2012 Season NFL Picks Against The Spread: 130-145-8, 47.3% (-$7,445)
2013 Season NFL Picks Against The Spread: 144-131-8, 52.4% (+$7,825)
2014 Season NFL Picks Against The Spread: 143-133-7, 51.8% (-$1,885)
2015 Season NFL Picks Against The Spread: 134-138-12, 49.3% (-$3,215)
2016 Season NFL Picks Against The Spread: 148-127-10, 53.8% (+$780)
2017 Season NFL Picks Against The Spread: 137-140-8, 49.5% (-$4,300)
2018 Season NFL Picks Against The Spread: 140-134-14, 51.3% (+$845)
2019 Season NFL Picks Against The Spread: 149-128-9, 53.6% (+$1,200)
2020 Season NFL Picks Against The Spread: 138-124-7, 52.7% (+$9,350)
2021 Season NFL Picks Against The Spread: 153-141-2, 51.9% (+$210)
2022 Season NFL Picks Against The Spread: 154-134-8, 53.5% (+$9,860)
2023 Season NFL Picks Against The Spread: 144-141-7, 50.5% (-$7,285)

2002 Season 2-3 Unit NFL Picks: 41-49-2 (45.6%)
2003 Season 2-3 Unit NFL Picks: 52-51-2 (50.5%)
2004 Season 2-3 Unit NFL Picks: 65-44-3 (59.6%)
2005 Season 2-3 Unit NFL Picks: 77-61-1 (55.8%)
2006 Season 2-3 Unit NFL Picks: 65-61-4 (51.6%)
2007 Season 2-3 Unit NFL Picks: 83-59-5, 58.5% (+$4,110)
2008 Season 2-3 Unit NFL Picks: 44-57-3, 43.6% (-$3,510)
2009 Season 2-3 Unit NFL Picks: 49-35-3, 58.3% (+$2,260)
2010 Season 2-3 Unit NFL Picks: 51-38-4, 57.3% (+$3,180)
2011 Season 2-3 Unit NFL Picks: 44-51-3, 46.3% (-$2,715)
2012 Season 2-3 Unit NFL Picks: 45-50-2, 47.4% (-$2,130)
2013 Season 2-3 Unit NFL Picks: 38-42, 47.5% (-$2,890)
2015 Season 2-3 Unit NFL Picks: 47-44-1, 51.6% (-$820)
2016 Season 2-3 Unit NFL Picks: 42-35-3, 54.5% (+$475)
2017 Season 2-3 Unit NFL Picks: 32-40-3, 43.8% (-$2,395)
2018 Season 2-3 Unit NFL Picks: 52-41-2, 55.9% (+$2,670)
2019 Season 2-3 Unit NFL Picks: 44-36-2, 55.0% (+$655)
2020 Season 2-3 Unit NFL Picks: 47-43-3, 52.2% (-$1,965)
2021 Season 2-3 Unit NFL Picks: 50-50, 50.0% (-$1,570)
2022 Season 2-3 Unit NFL Picks: 56-44-2, 56.0% (+$1,860)
2023 Season 2-3 Unit NFL Picks: 44-40-3, 52.4% (+$285)

2002 Season 4-5 Unit NFL Picks: 11-12 (47.8%)
2003 Season 4-5 Unit NFL Picks: 16-13-1 (55.2%)
2004 Season 4-5 Unit NFL Picks: 18-11 (62.1%)
2005 Season 4-5 Unit NFL Picks: 25-22-1 (53.2%)
2006 Season 4-5 Unit NFL Picks: 21-29-1 (42.0%)
2007 Season 4-5 Unit NFL Picks: 35-30-2, 53.8% (+$420)
2008 Season 4-5 Unit NFL Picks: 39-26-2, 60.0% (+$4,055)
2009 Season 4-5 Unit NFL Picks: 29-26, 52.7% (+$330)
2010 Season 4-5 Unit NFL Picks: 32-22, 59.3% (+$4,790)
2011 Season 4-5 Unit NFL Picks: 14-14, 50.0% (-$1,260)
2012 Season 4-5 Unit NFL Picks: 14-21, 40.0% (-$3,650)
2013 Season 4-5 Unit NFL Picks: 17-9-3, 65.4% (+$2,970)
2015 Season 4-5 Unit NFL Picks: 17-16-2, 51.5% (-$1,120)
2016 Season 4-5 Unit NFL Picks: 21-22-5, 48.8% (-$1,465)
2017 Season 4-5 Unit NFL Picks: 20-22-1, 47.6% (-$1,595)
2018 Season 4-5 Unit NFL Picks: 27-32-1, 45.8% (-$4,735)
2019 Season 4-5 Unit NFL Picks: 37-27-2, 57.8% (+$2,185)
2020 Season 4-5 Unit NFL Picks: 37-22-1, 62.7% (+$5,515)
2021 Season 4-5 Unit NFL Picks: 32-32-1, 50.0% (-$725)
2022 Season 4-5 Unit NFL Picks: 41-30-1, 57.8% (+$3,725)
2023 Season 4-5 Unit NFL Picks: 32-27-1, 54.2% (-$1,310)

2001 Season Over-Under: 3-2 (60.0%)
2002 Season Over-Under: 121-91-3 (57.1%)
2003 Season Over-Under: 126-132-2 (48.8%)
2004 Season Over-Under: 139-124-4 (52.9%)
2005 Season Over-Under: 117-145-4 (44.7%)
2006 Season Over-Under: 129-132-5 (49.4%)
2007 Season Over-Under: 136-145-3, 48.4% (-$1,900)
2008 Season Over-Under: 137-125-6, 52.3% (+$860)
2009 Season Over-Under: 128-135-4, 48.7% (-$3,195)
2010 Season Over-Under: 128-135-5, 48.7% (-$5)
2011 Season Over-Under: 131-131-5, 50.0% (+$135)
2012 Season Over-Under: 125-121-5, 50.8% (+$30)
2013 Season Over-Under: 132-130-5, 50.4% (-$340)
2015 Season Over-Under: 143-119-5, 54.6% ($0)
2016 Season Over-Under: 123-141-1, 46.6% (+$95)
2017 Season Over-Under: 136-139-2, 49.5% (+$640)
2018 Season Over-Under: 118-128-3, 48.0% (-$225)
2019 Season Over-Under: 126-133-4, 48.6% (-$50)
2020 Season Over-Under: 141-122-6, 53.6% ($0)
2021 Season Over-Under: 132-151-3, 46.6% ($0)
2022 Season Over-Under: 133-149-2, 47.2% (-$225)
2023 Season Over-Under: 145-135-3, 51.8% (+$200)

2007 Season Prop/ML/Teaser/Parlay Picks: +$1,035
2008 Season Prop/ML/Teaser/Parlay Picks: +$1,775
2009 Season Prop/ML/Teaser/Parlay Picks: +$865
2010 Season Prop/ML/Teaser/Parlay Picks: -$200
2011 Season Prop/ML/Teaser/Parlay Picks: +$590
2012 Season Prop/ML/Teaser/Parlay Picks: -$1,685
2013 Season Prop/ML/Teaser/Parlay Picks: +$2,245
2015 Season Prop/ML/Teaser/Parlay Picks: -$855
2016 Season Prop/ML/Teaser/Parlay Picks: -$275
2017 Season Prop/ML/Teaser/Parlay Picks: -$510
2018 Season Prop/ML/Teaser/Parlay Picks: +$1,495
2019 Season Prop/ML/Teaser/Parlay Picks: -$1,715
2020 Season Prop/ML/Teaser/Parlay Picks: +$4,975
2021 Season Prop/ML/Teaser/Parlay Picks: +$3,455
2022 Season Prop/ML/Teaser/Parlay Picks: +$5,720
2023 Season Prop/ML/Teaser/Parlay Picks: -$2,565

2006 NFL Picks of the Month: 3-3 (50%)
2007 NFL Picks of the Month: 3-3, 50.0% (-$400)
2008 NFL Picks of the Month: 6-1, 85.7% (+$3,720)
2009 NFL Picks of the Month: 3-2, 60.0% (+$640)
2010 NFL Picks of the Month: 2-4, 33.3% (-$1,810)
2011 NFL Picks of the Month: 5-2, 71.4% (+$1,870)
2012 NFL Picks of the Month: 3-2, 60.0% (+$560)
2013 NFL Picks of the Month: 6-0, 100% (+$3,900)
2014 NFL Picks of the Month: 2-4, 33.3% (-$1,350)
2015 NFL Picks of the Month: 3-3, 50.0% (-$100)
2016 NFL Picks of the Month: 5-1, 83.3% (+$2,780)
2017 NFL Picks of the Month: 4-2, 66.7% (+$1,040)
2018 NFL Picks of the Month: 4-3, 57.1% (-$640)
2019 NFL Picks of the Month: 3-3-1, 50.0% (-$625)
2020 NFL Picks of the Month: 3-2, 60.0% (+$665)
2021 NFL Picks of the Month: 2-3, 40.0% (-$920)
2022 NFL Picks of the Month: 3-4, 42.9% (-$1,615)
2023 NFL Picks of the Month: 2-5, 28.6% (-$2,550)

Career NFL Picks Against The Spread: 3,530-3,254-204, 52.0% (+$17,530)
Career 2-3 Unit NFL Picks: 1,132-1,020-57 (52.6%)
Career 4-5 Unit NFL Picks: 577-506-25 (53.3%)
Career Over-Under: 2,960-2,937-78 (50.2%)
Career Second-Half NFL Picks: 23-16-1 (59.0%)
Career NFL Picks of the Month: 47-37-1 (56.0%)

My Team-by-Team ATS Record
This section shows how well I do when picking each team this year. The purpose is to see how well I read each team. Pushes are not displayed. Winning/losing streak in parentheses.

Cowboys: 6-6	Bears: 5-7	Bucs: 8-5	49ers: 8-5
Eagles: 7-6	Lions: 10-3	Falcons: 7-6	Cardinals: 9-4
Giants: 4-8	Packers: 9-3	Panthers: 5-8	Rams: 7-6
Redskins: 6-6	Vikings: 5-7	Saints: 6-7	Seahawks: 7-5

Bills: 5-8	Bengals: 3-10	Colts: 7-6	Broncos: 9-4
Dolphins: 5-8	Browns: 5-8	Jaguars: 4-7	Chargers: 7-5
Jets: 7-6	Ravens: 6-6	Texans: 5-7	Chiefs: 5-7
Patriots: 7-4	Steelers: 6-7	Titans: 8-4	Raiders: 7-6

Divisional: 27-34 (2011-23: 608-561)	2x Game Edge: 23-19 (2011-23: 401-387)	2x Motivation Edge: 38-31 (2011-23: 510-441)	2x Spread Edge: 25-36 (2011-23: 239-211)
2x Vegas Edge: 44-57 (2011-23: 448-446)	2x Trend Edge: 14-9 (2011-23: 321-293)	Double Edge: 17-17 (2011-23: 207-185)	Triple Edge: 4-9 (2011-23: 33-37)