NFL Picks Against the Spread: Week 1, 2021



2021 NFL Picks: 0-0 ($0)

NFL Picks (2020): 138-124-7 (+$9,350)
NFL Picks (2019): 148-128-9 (+$1,200)
NFL Picks (2018): 140-134-12 (+$845)
NFL Picks (2017): 137-147-10 (-$4,300)
NFL Picks (2016): 148-127-10 (+$780)
NFL Picks (2015): 133-138-10 (-$3,215)
NFL Picks (2014): 143-133-7 (-$1,885)
NFL Picks (2013): 144-131-8 (+$7,825)
NFL Picks (2012): 130-145-8 (-$7,445)
NFL Picks (2011): 137-133-12 (-$1,335)
NFL Picks (2010): 144-131-8 (+$5,880)
NFL Picks (2009): 151-124-9 (+$4,235)
NFL Picks (2008): 136-125-6 (+$6,105)
NFL Picks (2007): 162-135-10 (+$3,585)
If you don't quite understand the line, total or anything else, go to my Sports Betting FAQ.

Vegas betting action updated . Follow @walterfootball for updates.


Go to Week 1 NFL Picks - Early Games







Cleveland Browns (0-0) at Kansas City Chiefs (0-0)
Line: Chiefs by 6. Total: .
Sunday, September 12, 4:25 PM


The Matchup. Edge: .

Early Week 1 NFL Pick Lean: I love the Chiefs. The last time we saw Patrick Mahomes, he was humiliated in the Super Bowl, so he'll be out for blood. Meanwhile, Andy Reid will make the best use of having extra time to prepare. I like the Browns this year, but Kansas City should win this game by double digits.


The Motivation. Edge:



The Spread. Edge:

WalterFootball.com Calculated Spread: .
Westgate Advance Point Spread: N/A.
Computer Model: .
DVOA Spread: .


The Vegas. Edge: None.


Percentage of money on X: %


The Trends. Edge: None.
  • Opening Line: .
  • Opening Total: .
  • Weather: .



  • Week 1 NFL Pick:






    Miami Dolphins (0-0) at New England Patriots (0-0)
    Line: Patriots by 2. Total: .
    Sunday, September 12, 4:25 PM


    The Matchup. Edge: .

    Early Week 1 NFL Pick Lean: I love betting on great coaches who have had extra time to prepare. Bill Belichick is arguably the best coach of all time, so sign me up for the Patriots in Week 1. I have no doubt that Belichick's defense will frustrate yet another young quarterback at home.


    The Motivation. Edge:



    The Spread. Edge:

    WalterFootball.com Calculated Spread: .
    Westgate Advance Point Spread: N/A.
    Computer Model: .
    DVOA Spread: .


    The Vegas. Edge: None.


    Percentage of money on X: %


    The Trends. Edge: None.
  • Opening Line: .
  • Opening Total: .
  • Weather: .



  • Week 1 NFL Pick:






    Green Bay Packers (0-0) at New Orleans Saints (0-0)
    Line: Saints by 3. Total: .
    Sunday, September 12, 4:25 PM


    The Matchup. Edge: .

    Early Week 1 NFL Pick Lean: There's no line on this game because it's uncertain if Aaron Rodgers will be quarterbacking the Packers. Both teams are in severe decline this year, so it sucks not being able to fade both in Week 1.


    The Motivation. Edge:



    The Spread. Edge:

    WalterFootball.com Calculated Spread: .
    Westgate Advance Point Spread: N/A.
    Computer Model: .
    DVOA Spread: .


    The Vegas. Edge: None.


    Percentage of money on X: %


    The Trends. Edge: None.
  • Opening Line: .
  • Opening Total: .
  • Weather: .



  • Week 1 NFL Pick:






    Denver Broncos (0-0) at New York Giants (0-0)
    Line: Broncos by 1.5. Total: .
    Sunday, September 12, 4:25 PM


    The Matchup. Edge: .

    Early Week 1 NFL Pick Lean: It's odd that there's no line on the Packers game, yet there's a spread available for this contest. If Rodgers is traded, he's almost certainly going to Denver. If that happens, this line will be well above Denver -3. I'm going to bet the Broncos soon, just in case the Rodgers trade goes through.


    The Motivation. Edge:



    The Spread. Edge:

    WalterFootball.com Calculated Spread: .
    Westgate Advance Point Spread: N/A.
    Computer Model: .
    DVOA Spread: .


    The Vegas. Edge: None.


    Percentage of money on X: %


    The Trends. Edge: None.
  • Opening Line: .
  • Opening Total: .
  • Weather: .



  • Week 1 NFL Pick:






    Chicago Bears (0-0) at Los Angeles Rams (0-0)
    Line: Rams by 7. Total: .
    Sunday, September 12, 8:20 PM


    The Matchup. Edge: .

    Early Week 1 NFL Pick Lean: Justin Fields' presence will help the Bears in this game, but I still like the Rams to cover. Sean McVay is one of the top coaches in the NFL, so the extra time he'll have at his disposal will help him devise a great game plan versus Chicago.


    The Motivation. Edge:



    The Spread. Edge:

    WalterFootball.com Calculated Spread: .
    Westgate Advance Point Spread: N/A.
    Computer Model: .
    DVOA Spread: .


    The Vegas. Edge: None.


    Percentage of money on X: %


    The Trends. Edge: None.
  • Opening Line: .
  • Opening Total: .
  • Weather: .



  • Week 1 NFL Pick:






    Baltimore Ravens (0-0) at Las Vegas Raiders (0-0)
    Line: Ravens by 4. Total: .
    Monday, September 13, 8:15 PM


    The Matchup. Edge: .

    Early Week 1 NFL Pick Lean: Why is there only one Monday night game in Week 1 this year? There should be more Monday night games; not fewer! Anyway, the Ravens are the clear play. John Harbaugh having extra time to prepare is a huge edge for Baltimore. Meanwhile, the Raiders will be a mere shell of their former selves because of all the offensive linemen they lost this offseason.


    The Motivation. Edge:



    The Spread. Edge:

    WalterFootball.com Calculated Spread: .
    Westgate Advance Point Spread: N/A.
    Computer Model: .
    DVOA Spread: .


    The Vegas. Edge: None.


    Percentage of money on X: %


    The Trends. Edge: None.
  • Opening Line: .
  • Opening Total: .
  • Weather: .



  • Week 1 NFL Pick:





    week 1 NFL Picks - Early Games
    Cowboys at Bucs, Eagles at Falcons, Steelers at Bills, Vikings at Bengals, 49ers at Lions, Cardinals at Titans, Seahawks at Colts, Chargers at Redskins, Jets at Panthers, Jaguars at Texans


    Prop/Teaser/Parlay Picks
    A list of some of my favorite team/player prop picks this week
    (Offense & defensive ROY picks to be counted whenever winners are announced.) Picks carried over on a week-to-week basis will be in black.


  • Teaser: Falcons +7.5, Rams +8 (2 Units - BetUS) -- Incorrect; -$220



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    Last Week's NFL Picks Against The Spread (Week 21, 2020): 1-0 (+$560)
    Last Week's 2-3 Unit NFL Picks (Week 21, 2020): 0-0 ($0)
    Last Week's 4-5 Unit NFL Picks (Week 21, 2020): 0-0 ($0)
    Last Week Over-Under (Week 21, 2020): 1-0 ($0)
    Last Week's Prop/ML/Teaser/Parlay Picks (Week 21, 2020 plus 2020 props): +$4,735

    2020 NFL Picks of the Month: 3-2, 60.0% (+$665)

    2020 Season NFL Picks Against The Spread: 138-124-7, 52.7% (+$9,350)
    2020 Season 2-3 Unit NFL Picks: 47-43-3, 52.2% (-$1,965)
    2020 Season 4-5 Unit NFL Picks: 37-22-1, 62.7% (+$5,515)
    2020 Season Over-Under: 141-122-6, 53.6% ($0)
    2020 Season Prop/ML/Teaser/Parlay Picks: +$4,975

    1999 Season NFL Picks Against The Spread: 27-41-3 (39.7%)
    2000 Season NFL Picks Against The Spread: 128-123-8 (51.0%)
    2001 Season NFL Picks Against The Spread: 127-122-7 (51.0%)
    2002 Season NFL Picks Against The Spread: 123-136-7 (47.5%)
    2003 Season NFL Picks Against The Spread: 146-126-8 (53.7%)
    2004 Season NFL Picks Against The Spread: 157-123-8 (56.1%)
    2005 Season NFL Picks Against The Spread: 156-126-11 (55.3%)
    2006 Season NFL Picks Against The Spread: 151-135-9 (52.8%)
    2007 Season NFL Picks Against The Spread: 162-135-10, 54.5% (+$3,585)
    2008 Season NFL Picks Against The Spread: 148-140-7, 51.4% (+$6,105)
    2009 Season NFL Picks Against The Spread: 151-124-9, 54.9% (+$4,235)
    2010 Season NFL Picks Against The Spread: 144-131-8, 52.4% (+$5,880)
    2011 Season NFL Picks Against The Spread: 137-133-12, 50.7% (-$1,335)
    2012 Season NFL Picks Against The Spread: 130-145-8, 47.3% (-$7,445)
    2013 Season NFL Picks Against The Spread: 144-131-8, 52.4% (+$7,825)
    2014 Season NFL Picks Against The Spread: 143-133-7, 51.8% (-$1,885)
    2015 Season NFL Picks Against The Spread: 134-138-12, 49.3% (-$3,215)
    2016 Season NFL Picks Against The Spread: 148-127-10, 53.8% (+$780)
    2017 Season NFL Picks Against The Spread: 137-140-8, 49.5% (-$4,300)
    2018 Season NFL Picks Against The Spread: 140-134-14, 51.3% (+$845)
    2019 Season NFL Picks Against The Spread: 149-128-9, 53.6% (+$1,200)

    2002 Season 2-3 Unit NFL Picks: 41-49-2 (45.6%)
    2003 Season 2-3 Unit NFL Picks: 52-51-2 (50.5%)
    2004 Season 2-3 Unit NFL Picks: 65-44-3 (59.6%)
    2005 Season 2-3 Unit NFL Picks: 77-61-1 (55.8%)
    2006 Season 2-3 Unit NFL Picks: 65-61-4 (51.6%)
    2007 Season 2-3 Unit NFL Picks: 83-59-5, 58.5% (+$4,110)
    2008 Season 2-3 Unit NFL Picks: 44-57-3, 43.6% (-$3,510)
    2009 Season 2-3 Unit NFL Picks: 49-35-3, 58.3% (+$2,260)
    2010 Season 2-3 Unit NFL Picks: 51-38-4, 57.3% (+$3,180)
    2011 Season 2-3 Unit NFL Picks: 44-51-3, 46.3% (-$2,715)
    2012 Season 2-3 Unit NFL Picks: 45-50-2, 47.4% (-$2,130)
    2013 Season 2-3 Unit NFL Picks: 38-42, 47.5% (-$2,890)
    2015 Season 2-3 Unit NFL Picks: 47-44-1, 51.6% (-$820)
    2016 Season 2-3 Unit NFL Picks: 42-35-3, 54.5% (+$475)
    2017 Season 2-3 Unit NFL Picks: 32-40-3, 43.8% (-$2,395)
    2018 Season 2-3 Unit NFL Picks: 52-41-2, 55.9% (+$2,670)
    2019 Season 2-3 Unit NFL Picks: 44-36-2, 55.0% (+$655)

    2002 Season 4-5 Unit NFL Picks: 11-12 (47.8%)
    2003 Season 4-5 Unit NFL Picks: 16-13-1 (55.2%)
    2004 Season 4-5 Unit NFL Picks: 18-11 (62.1%)
    2005 Season 4-5 Unit NFL Picks: 25-22-1 (53.2%)
    2006 Season 4-5 Unit NFL Picks: 21-29-1 (42.0%)
    2007 Season 4-5 Unit NFL Picks: 35-30-2, 53.8% (+$420)
    2008 Season 4-5 Unit NFL Picks: 39-26-2, 60.0% (+$4,055)
    2009 Season 4-5 Unit NFL Picks: 29-26, 52.7% (+$330)
    2010 Season 4-5 Unit NFL Picks: 32-22, 59.3% (+$4,790)
    2011 Season 4-5 Unit NFL Picks: 14-14, 50.0% (-$1,260)
    2012 Season 4-5 Unit NFL Picks: 14-21, 40.0% (-$3,650)
    2013 Season 4-5 Unit NFL Picks: 17-9-3, 65.4% (+$2,970)
    2015 Season 4-5 Unit NFL Picks: 17-16-2, 51.5% (-$1,120)
    2016 Season 4-5 Unit NFL Picks: 21-22-5, 48.8% (-$1,465)
    2017 Season 4-5 Unit NFL Picks: 20-22-1, 47.6% (-$1,595)
    2018 Season 4-5 Unit NFL Picks: 27-32-1, 45.8% (-$4,735)
    2019 Season 4-5 Unit NFL Picks: 37-27-2, 57.8% (+$2,185)

    2001 Season Over-Under: 3-2 (60.0%)
    2002 Season Over-Under: 121-91-3 (57.1%)
    2003 Season Over-Under: 126-132-2 (48.8%)
    2004 Season Over-Under: 139-124-4 (52.9%)
    2005 Season Over-Under: 117-145-4 (44.7%)
    2006 Season Over-Under: 129-132-5 (49.4%)
    2007 Season Over-Under: 136-145-3, 48.4% (-$1,900)
    2008 Season Over-Under: 137-125-6, 52.3% (+$860)
    2009 Season Over-Under: 128-135-4, 48.7% (-$3,195)
    2010 Season Over-Under: 128-135-5, 48.7% (-$5)
    2011 Season Over-Under: 131-131-5, 50.0% (+$135)
    2012 Season Over-Under: 125-121-5, 50.8% (+$30)
    2013 Season Over-Under: 132-130-5, 50.4% (-$340)
    2015 Season Over-Under: 143-119-5, 54.6% ($0)
    2016 Season Over-Under: 123-141-1, 46.6% (+$95)
    2017 Season Over-Under: 136-139-2, 49.5% (+$640)
    2018 Season Over-Under: 118-128-3, 48.0% (-$225)
    2019 Season Over-Under: 126-133-4, 48.6% (-$50)

    2007 Season Prop/ML/Teaser/Parlay Picks: +$1,035
    2008 Season Prop/ML/Teaser/Parlay Picks: +$1,775
    2009 Season Prop/ML/Teaser/Parlay Picks: +$865
    2010 Season Prop/ML/Teaser/Parlay Picks: -$200
    2011 Season Prop/ML/Teaser/Parlay Picks: +$590
    2012 Season Prop/ML/Teaser/Parlay Picks: -$1,685
    2013 Season Prop/ML/Teaser/Parlay Picks: +$2,245
    2015 Season Prop/ML/Teaser/Parlay Picks: -$855
    2016 Season Prop/ML/Teaser/Parlay Picks: -$275
    2017 Season Prop/ML/Teaser/Parlay Picks: -$510
    2018 Season Prop/ML/Teaser/Parlay Picks: +$1,495
    2019 Season Prop/ML/Teaser/Parlay Picks: -$1,715

    2006 NFL Picks of the Month: 3-3 (50%)
    2007 NFL Picks of the Month: 3-3, 50.0% (-$400)
    2008 NFL Picks of the Month: 6-1, 85.7% (+$3,720)
    2009 NFL Picks of the Month: 3-2, 60.0% (+$640)
    2010 NFL Picks of the Month: 2-4, 33.3% (-$1,810)
    2011 NFL Picks of the Month: 5-2, 71.4% (+$1,870)
    2012 NFL Picks of the Month: 3-2, 60.0% (+$560)
    2013 NFL Picks of the Month: 6-0, 100% (+$3,900)
    2014 NFL Picks of the Month: 2-4, 33.3% (-$1,350)
    2015 NFL Picks of the Month: 3-3, 50.0% (-$100)
    2016 NFL Picks of the Month: 5-1, 83.3% (+$2,780)
    2017 NFL Picks of the Month: 4-2, 66.7% (+$1,040)
    2018 NFL Picks of the Month: 4-3, 57.1% (-$640)
    2019 NFL Picks of the Month: 3-3-1, 50.0% (-$625)

    Career NFL Picks Against The Spread: 2,995-2,761-179, 52.0% (+$19,655)
    Career 2-3 Unit NFL Picks: 957-859-49 (52.7%)
    Career 4-5 Unit NFL Picks: 452-396-23 (53.3%)
    Career Over-Under: 2,463-2,416-66 (50.5%)
    Career Second-Half NFL Picks: 22-15-1 (61.1%)
    Career NFL Picks of the Month: 45-29-1 (60.8%)



    My Team-by-Team ATS Record
    This section shows how well I do when picking each team this year. The purpose is to see how well I read each team. Pushes are not displayed. Winning/losing streak in parentheses.

    Cowboys: 11-5 (2014-19: 47-50)
    Bears: 6-11 (2014-19: 45-48)
    Bucs: 9-10 (2014-19: 44-45)
    49ers: 8-8 (2014-19: 53-44)
    Eagles: 8-8 (2014-19: 55-46)
    Lions: 9-6 (2014-19: 53-42)
    Falcons: 9-7 (2014-19: 55-45)
    Cardinals: 10-6 (2014-19: 45-50)
    Giants: 3-13 (2014-19: 52-41)
    Packers: 14-4 (2014-19: 54-46)
    Panthers: 13-3 (2014-19: 47-52)
    Rams: 6-12 (2014-19: 53-41)
    Redskins: 7-8 (2014-19: 47-48)
    Vikings: 9-7 (2014-19: 51-45)
    Saints: 7-11 (2014-19: 49-50)
    Seahawks: 8-9 (2014-19: 43-56)
    Bills: 12-7 (2014-19: 52-42)
    Bengals: 9-5 (2014-19: 42-52)
    Colts: 8-7 (2014-19: 50-45)
    Broncos: 9-7 (2014-19: 45-48)
    Dolphins: 12-4 (2014-19: 47-46)
    Browns: 8-9 (2014-19: 46-44)
    Jaguars: 4-11 (2014-19: 41-55)
    Chargers: 8-6 (2014-19: 46-49)
    Jets: 8-8 (2014-19: 50-40)
    Ravens: 6-11 (2014-19: 48-47)
    Texans: 10-5 (2014-19: 48-47)
    Chiefs: 15-4 (2014-19: 56-50)
    Patriots: 6-10 (2014-19: 55-53)
    Steelers: 7-10 (2014-19: 56-43)
    Titans: 10-7 (2014-19: 49-47)
    Raiders: 7-9 (2014-19: 43-52)
    Divisional: 43-48 (2011-19: 405-394)
    2x Game Edge: 66-61 (2011-19: 213-210)
    2x Motivation Edge: 47-30 (2011-19: 347-288)
    2x Spread Edge: 44-34 (2011-19: 61-55)
    2x Vegas Edge: 26-22 (2011-19: 320-335)
    2x Trend Edge: 20-13 (2011-19: 250-228)
    Double Edge: 27-21 (2011-19: 122-107)
    Triple Edge: 6-4 (2011-19: 21-18)

    2003 Preseason: 3 | 4 | 5
    2003 Season: 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 | 16 | 17 | 18 | 20 | XXXVIII
    2004 Preseason: 1 | 2 | 3 | 4
    2004 Season: 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 | 16 | 17 | 18 | 19 | 20 | XXXIX
    2005 Preseason: 1 | 2 | 3 | 4
    2005 Season: 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 | 16 | 17 | 18 | 19 | 20 | XL
    2006 Preseason: 1 | 2 | 3 | 4
    2006 Season: 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 | 16 | 17 | 18 | 19 | 20 | XLI
    2007 Preseason: 1 | 2 | 3 | 4
    2007 Season: 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 | 16 | 17 | 18 | 19 | 20 | XLII |
    2008 Preseason: 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 |
    2008 Season: 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 | 16 | 17 | 18 | 19 | 20 | XLIII |
    2009 Season: 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 | 16 | 17 | 18 | 19 | 20 | XLIV |
    2010 Preseason: 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 |
    2010 Season: 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 | 16 | 17 | 18 | 19 | 20 | XLV |
    2011 Preseason: 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 |
    2011 Season: 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 | 16 | 17 | 18 | 19 | 20 | XLVI |
    2012 Preseason: 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 |
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    2018 Preseason: 1 | 2 | 3 | 4
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    2019 Preseason: 1 | 2 | 3 | 4
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    2020 Season:
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