NFL Picks Against the Spread: Week 9, 2023

Tennessee Titans (3-4) at Pittsburgh Steelers (4-3)
Line: Steelers by 3. Total: 37.
Thursday, Nov. 2, 8:15 PM


The Matchup. Edge: Steelers.

Week 8 Analysis: Another dreadful week to conclude one of the worst handicapping months of my career. Despite the poor record, I would have been up had the Bears covered on Sunday night. I’ll once again break down all the 3+ unit picks each week:

Colts, 4 units (loss): This was incredibly frustrating. I liked the Saints as a three-unit bet, but I ended up wagering four units on the Colts. Why? Because all I read was that the Saints were stricken with the flu. Last year, the Raiders had the flu and had a lifeless 24-0 loss to the Saints. I thought we’d see the same thing from New Orleans. I even took Alvin Kamara out of my DraftKings lineups. Yet, somehow, some way, the Saints were able to crush the Colts. I seriously have never run this poorly.

Rams, 5 units (loss): Speaking of running poorly, this was a 10-3 game when the Cowboys scored on a pick-six because of a rare miscommunication between Matthew Stafford and Cooper Kupp. The Rams then had a punt blocked for a safety. They allowed a big kickoff return right after that. In the blink of an eye, a 10-3 game turned into a 26-3 blowout. And then, the Rams looked like they’d threaten a back-door cover, but Stafford hurt his hand and couldn’t play the final quarter-and-a-half.

Jets, 3 units (push): We were lucky to get the push, I guess, but it felt like the Jets should have won easily.

Packers, 3 units (loss): This was a terrible pick, I’ll admit that.

Bengals, 3 units (win): It was nice to get this one. I suddenly feel much better about my Bengals Super Bowl future.

Bears, 5 units (loss): Everything that could have gone wrong went wrong for the Bears in this game. They were screwed out of a touchdown on the first play of the game, and they were whistled for nearly quadruple the number of penalties compared to the Chargers. They had a dropped touchdown where the receiver slipped. They had a drop on fourth down. If Justin Herbert was called for that obvious grounding penalty, that would have been a score taken off the board for the Chargers. I don’t think this was a bad pick. It shouldn’t have been five units, but there’s no way the Chargers reliably cover the spread as big favorites because they’re not a good team.

I want to include a new segment here, where I list “obvious” picks in hindsight that I did not bet:

Jaguars -2.5 vs. Steelers: I bet the Jaguars, but didn’t do so enough. I said that Pittsburgh’s weird voodoo wasn’t sustainable, and yet I was a bit afraid of it!

Panthers +3.5 vs. Texans: I said on one of the shows that I wanted to bet on the Panthers, but then got scared off by the injury report because Brian Burns was downgraded each day. Come Sunday morning, however, Burns was active, so I should have bet the Panthers as I originally planned.

If you haven’t visited the site in a while, you may have noticed the new look. Yes, after nearly two decades, we’ve finally re-designed our site to be more modern. This was not done on a whim, but rather out of necessity because of what occurred during the 2023 NFL Draft. Our site crashed during the entire first day of the draft, which was disastrous for our revenue stream because we make more money during the draft than any other time. The site crashed because a line of code conflicted with the old format of the site, so we had to transition to this new look.

Because we lost so much money during the draft, I want to point out that you can really help support the site by paying for the ad-free version of it at the top. It’s $7.99 per month, but you’ll get a super-fast site with no ads. If you don’t want to pay, please spread the word about the site through word of mouth. That would also be a big help!

TENNESSEE OFFENSE: I guess Will Levis is better than everyone thought. Levis was panned by most analysts ahead of the 2023 NFL Draft, and every team that could have selected him in the first round passed on him. Levis looked atrocious in the preseason, but none of that mattered in his first start as he torched the Falcons’ solid secondary relentlessly.

It’ll be interesting to see if Levis can continue his high level of play. The Steelers have had issues dealing with No. 1 receivers, so Levis theoretically should be able to connect with DeAndre Hopkins early and often once again. However, he’ll be matched up against a defensive mastermind in Mike Tomlin. The Steeler coach will throw some confusing looks at the rookie, so that could potentially lead to some turnovers.

Luckily for Levis, he’ll be able to lean on Derrick Henry, who reportedly won’t be traded at the deadline. The Steelers have a middling rush defense, so this is an area Henry can exploit with the opposing defense being more focused on Hopkins.

PITTSBURGH OFFENSE: It remains to be seen who will be quarterbacking the Steelers in this game. Kenny Pickett suffered a rib injury against the Jaguars. Tomlin has refused to rule him out, but it may be difficult for Pickett to play on just three days of rest. Even if he does, it’s unlikely that he’ll be 100 percent. So, we’re getting either an injured Pickett or an inept Mitchell Trubisky quarterbacking the Steelers.

Regardless, it doesn’t seem as though the Steelers will be able to fully capitalize on Tennessee’s major weakness, which is defending the deep pass. The Titans lucked out in this regard last week after Drake London got hurt, and it appears as though they’ll once again benefit from an injury-related situation.

If an opponent can’t torch the Titans’ secondary, it’s difficult for the opposition to do anything offensively. This is because the Titans have one of the best run defenses in the NFL. The Steelers can’t seem to run on anyone, so it seems as though they’ll have issues sustaining drives, despite how talented their top two receivers are.

RECAP: Levis surprised a ton of people last week. Those people were very impressed because they are likely betting the Titans now. More than two-thirds of the public money is on Tennessee, and yet the spread has risen in Pittsburgh’s favor.

As you can probably guess, the sharps are on the Steelers, and I think they are correct. Beating the mediocre Falcons is one thing, but for a rookie to defeat a defensive mastermind like Tomlin is another. I can only assume that Tomlin is going to throw some confusing looks Levis’ way and force him into turnovers.

However, I can’t say I’m too excited to bet Pittsburgh, especially if an injured Pickett plays. I’d rather have a healthy Trubisky, even though he sucks. Plus, the sharps got this at -2.5, but -3 is a different animal. I’ll probably be on the Steelers for a unit if it’s Trubisky, but having a team with such a dreadful offense to cover three points is a tough ask.

Our Week 9 NFL Picks will be posted all day Tuesday. Follow @walterfootball for updates.

THURSDAY THOUGHTS: I planned on betting the Steelers earlier, but I’m off of them now because Kenny Pickett is planning on playing. Pickett may not be 100 percent, so I don’t want to back an injured quarterback. I’ve considered switching to Tennessee, but at -2.5, I’ll stick with Pittsburgh.

FINAL THOUGHTS: Once again, I’m worried about Kenny Pickett’s health; otherwise, I would be more confident in the Steelers. I still like Pittsburgh a bit because Mike Tomlin should have his way with Will Levis, but if Pickett is hindered by his rib injury, the Steelers will have trouble covering the field goal. The sharps must feel conflicated as well because they haven’t taken a side. If you want to bet the Steelers, Bovada has the best vig at -105.

Miami Dolphins (6-2) vs. Kansas City Chiefs (6-2)
Line: Chiefs by 1. Total: 50.5.
Sunday, Nov. 5, 9:30 AM
at Germany


The Matchup. Edge: None.

My overrated-underrated feature was posted in this spot the past couple of years. I thought it would be better if there was less clutter on this page, so I set up a new NFL Overrated and Underrated Teams page that will be updated every Monday. I have overrated and underrated teams listed there, and some may shock you!

KANSAS CITY OFFENSE: Patrick Mahomes had one of the his worst games of the season against the Broncos. Then again, he was feeling miserable because of the flu, so I think we can give him a pass for it. Not all publications are so gracious, as a prominent one dropped the Chiefs four spots because of the Mahomes-flu loss to Denver.

Unless Mahomes’ illness spreads throughout the Chiefs’ locker room, Kansas City’s offense should be back to its normal self in this game. They’ll have a great matchup as well, given that Miami is so inept defensively. The Dolphins will eventually be better now that Jalen Ramsey is playing again, but they currently have other injuries in the secondary. Maybe Xavien Howard and Jevon Holland will return for this game, but there’s no telling if they’ll be 100 percent in their first game back.

The Dolphins have issues stopping the run as well. They’re bottom 10 in that category, so the Chiefs should be able to establish Isiah Pacheco. This will further help Mahomes and Travis Kelce’s positive matchups.

MIAMI OFFENSE: The Dolphins will be criticized for only beating poor opponents until they vanquish a great foe. Their offense has been unbelievable against bad defenses, but whenever they’ve gone against a defense ranked in the top 10, they haven’t been nearly as productive. They scored just 20 against the Bills and 10 versus the Eagles if a pick-six is ignored.

The Chiefs defense is at the same level as the Bills and even better than the Eagles because they can cover well. Their pass rush is top notch, ranking fourth in pressure rate. Granted, they blitz a lot, and Tagovailoa is great against the blitz, but he’s a much different quarterback when under pressure as opposed to kept clean, as all quarterbacks are. Still, Tagovailoa’s completion percentage is just 52.1 percent as opposed to 68.1 when he has a clean pocket.

The one way the Dolphins will be able to reliably move the chains is via the run. They couldn’t do this versus the Eagles, but they should be able to establish Raheem Mostert against a Kansas City defense ranked in the bottom five against the rush.

RECAP: I asked people on Twitter if they had any leans for Week 9. Most of the responses said the Chiefs. This matched the public betting trends for this game, with everyone coming in on Kansas City.

This level of enthusiasm would normally give me some pause, but then again, we just saw an 80-20 game cover in Detroit’s favor. Besides, the Chiefs make sense as a side. They are a great team coming off a loss, so I expect them to play better. Mahomes had a poor game because of the flu, but he’ll be vastly improved this week. The Dolphins, conversely, have the worst unit of the four that we’ll see Sunday morning, and that would be their defense, which ranks a hideous 24th in adjusted EPA.

Because of Miami’s poor defense, I have the team ranked significantly lower than the Chiefs, despite the two teams having the same record. So, even though there’s tons of action coming in on the Chiefs, I believe that many people don’t understand that this spread is mispriced. The Chiefs are favored by 2.5, but I have them as -5.5. The EPA projection says -3.5. Either way, this line is on the wrong side of three.

Speaking of three, that will be my unit count for this game. Unless we get word that Mahomes still hasn’t recovered, or the illness has spread to other Chiefs players, I will be betting Kansas City rather heavily.

THURSDAY THOUGHTS: I’m not going to bet on the Chiefs. I wanted to do so, but they’re traveling to Germany very late in the week. They’re making a Thursday trip, while Miami has been there since Monday. Teams perform better when spending a longer time overseas. Also, we’re already hearing the Chiefs complain about this game, with Marquez Valdes-Scantling saying that flying to Germany “sucks.” It seems like the Chiefs are in a bad place, while the Dolphins are bonding. I’m switching my selection to Miami.

SATURDAY NOTES: This is a tough one. On one hand, the travel definitely benefits the Dolphins. I have no idea why the Chiefs waited so long to travel, but this has been a poor strategy in the past. On the other hand, the Dolphins could potentially be missing multiple offensive linemen. Robert Hunt is out, while Terron Armstead was limited the entire week. Also, you have to like the Chiefs off a loss. Ultimately, I’m going to side with the travel dynamics and go with Miami, but I don’t feel strongly about it at all.

PLAYER PROP: Rashee Rice has gone over 45.5 receiving yards in each of his past three outings. This includes Patrick Mahomes’ flu game. What’s crazy is that the Chargers and Broncos rank among the best teams at limiting slot receivers. The Dolphins, conversely, allow the ninth-most points to slot receivers, so Rice could have his best game yet. The best vig is -114 at FanDuel. You can Get $200 in bonus bets from FanDuel by clicking the link.

FINAL THOUGHTS: Sharp money has come in on the Dolphins on Sunday morning, dragging this line down to a pick ’em at some sportsbooks. There are +1.5 -115s out there, but I’d rather go with the +1 at BetMGM or Caesars. I’m not betting this game, but I would take Miami because of the weird travel dynamics. You can Get $1,500 in bonus bets from BetMGM by clicking the link.

Minnesota Vikings (4-4) at Atlanta Falcons (4-4)
Line: Falcons by 4. Total: 37.
Sunday, Nov. 5, 1:00 PM


The Matchup. Edge: None.

VEGAS UPDATE: I’ll be posting how the Vegas sportsbooks have done the previous week in this spot. The highest-bet sides were 34-42 in 2020 and 48-37 in 2021. The highest bet sides were 32-35-1 last year, and they are now 14-14 ATS.

Here are the teams getting the most bets last week:

Lions -7.5

Ravens -9.5

Titans +2.5

The public lost on a back-door cover in the Ravens game, but got a public dog to come through in Tennessee. Detroit winning on Monday night was massive as well.

Here are the teams getting the most bets this week:

Chiefs -2.5

Browns -7.5

Titans +3

Bengals -3

Colts -2.5

Falcons -5

A wide variety of bets. Some road favorites, some under dogs, even a neutral-site team!

MINNESOTA OFFENSE: The big news entering this game is that Kirk Cousins has torn his Achilles and will be out for the year. Nick Mullens will be coming off injured reserve in the coming weeks. As for now, it’s the Jaren Hall show.

I made sure to watch Hall tape from the preseason. I was mostly comfortable with what I saw. He showed nice mobility and accuracy. He made one throw in the two-minute drill against Arizona where he stepped up in the pocket and delivered a 27-yard dime to his receiver. He also made quality throws on play-action bootlegs. There were some concerns, like his lacking arm strength. Hall also panicked on occasion and made some mistakes, so it wouldn’t surprise me if he’s intercepted at some point in this game. However, he was not protected well in the preseason. That will change in this game because Minnesota has a terrific offensive line, while the Falcons lost Grady Jarrett to injury.

One area where Hall will shine is when he targets T.J. Hockenson. The Pro Bowl tight end has a dream matchup against an Atlanta defense that has allowed the likes of Dalton Schultz and Hayden Hurst to look like Tony Gonzalez. If they were highly productive, imagine how Hockenson will perform, even with a backup quarterback throwing the ball to him.

ATLANTA OFFENSE: The Falcons have their own quarterback quandary. Desmond Ridder suffered what appeared to be a concussion against the Titans, but was cleared from protocol. Yet, Arthur Smith didn’t re-insert him into the lineup, opting to go with Taylor Heinicke instead. This was the correct decision, as Ridder has cost the Falcons too often with horrible mistakes. Heinicke is not a good quarterback by any means, but he has experience and can do a better job of managing games.

Heinicke also matches up better against Minnesota’s defense than Ridder does. This is because Heinicke was excellent versus the blitz last year. This is crucial because Minnesota blitzes at the highest clip in the NFL.

However, there are still two areas of concern for the Falcons. First, Drake London got banged up last week. The passing attack would suffer greatly if London were unavailable or hindered by injury. Second, the Vikings are excellent versus the run, ranking in the top 10 after just shutting down Aaron Jones. The Falcons base their entire offense on the run, so not being able to move the chains on the ground will hurt.

RECAP: This spread is quite the overreaction. The Falcons were -1 on the advance line, yet despite their defeat to the Titans, they are now favored by five because Minnesota lost its starting quarterback.

Obviously, there’s a huge downgrade from Cousins to Hall, but for this line to rip through the primary key number seems incorrect. Something I love to do is bet good teams with backup quarterbacks unless they are battling a top-12 defense. And yes, I consider the Vikings to be a good team. Their defense has improved enough under Brian Flores to be ranked seventh in EPA. Meanwhile, their offensive line is stellar. They also have a talented receiver in Jordan Addison. Minnesota is also coached well. It’s definitely a good team.

As for the Falcons, they don’t have a top-12 defense. They’re 17th in defensive EPA, and that’s before the Grady Jarrett injury. So, I think Hall will be just fine in this game. The Vikings’ defense will be able to limit a dead Falcons offense and keep this game close. An outright victory wouldn’t even shock me.

Considering everything, I made this line a pick ’em. The EPA numbers concur with this projection. With that in mind, Minnesota will be one of my top plays of the week.

THURSDAY THOUGHTS: The Falcons have been healthy all year, but they’re suddenly dealing with a major injury, as Drake London missed Wednesday’s practice with a groin problem. London being out would severely limit Atlanta’s offense.

SATURDAY NOTES: Drake London has been ruled out, which is a huge blow to the offense. This line has dropped to +4 as a result, but it’s still too high. I’m going to lock this in before it drops any further, and I’m also going to bet the Minnesota -2.5 alt line. The best spread I see is +4 -110 at Caesars, whereas many other sportsbooks have dropped the line to +3.5.

PLAYER PROPS: I’m betting T.J. Hockenson to score the first touchdown at 15/1. I think those are great odds, especially when considering the Falcons have allowed the likes of Dalton Schultz and Hayden Hurst to look like Tony Gonzalez against them this year. The 15/1 is available at FanDuel, which is much better than the 10/1 or 11/1 found in other places. You can Get $200 in bonus bets from FanDuel by clicking the link.

FINAL THOUGHTS: It really sucks that Christian Darrisaw is out for Jaren Hall’s first start, but I still like the Vikings. Had I not locked them in, I’d probably drop this to four units. The sharps have been betting Minnesota regardless. This spread is down to +3.5 in almost every sportsbook, but DraftKings has +4 -110 available.

Seattle Seahawks (5-2) at Baltimore Ravens (6-2)
Line: Ravens by 6.5. Total: 44.
Sunday, Nov. 5, 1:00 PM


The Matchup. Edge: Ravens.

HATE MAIL: We’re going to post hate mail here this year. Here’s something from Twitter:



Imagine being dumb enough to watch football when you can just get it in Morse code.

Here’s something short and sweet:



Being inaccurate is a skill. Seriously. The Circa Million contest gives out $50,000 to the last-place finisher!

This guy has an easy way of handicapping games:



Huh. Picking the better team. Why didn’t I think of that? Seriously, why didn’t I? It’s so easy.

And finally, here’s something where I outed someone as a pedo and they blocked me. Then, someone else defended the pedo:



Criticize my picks all you want, but we truly have the most accurate mock drafts. You can’t call us out on those!

BALTIMORE OFFENSE: The rich got richer the day before the trade deadline. The Seahawks, already ranked No. 1 in defense, have added a talented defensive line to their stop unit. Leonard Williams was acquired from the Giants, and he’ll provide a huge boost in the trenches. Seattle ranked 11th in pressure rate, so that figure will now rise in the wake of this deal.

Lamar Jackson will be under siege early and often in this game. This would be problematic for most quarterbacks, but Jackson can obviously use his legs to scramble out of dire situations. Phillip Walker was able to have success scrambling last week, so Jackson will have some nice runs. He’ll also be able to connect with Mark Andrews, given that Seattle isn’t great versus tight ends.

The Seahawks happen to be great versus the run, however. Gus Edwards won’t have nearly as great of a game as he enjoyed last week versus Baltimore. It’ll be up to just Jackson and the passing game, which could still be good enough.

SEATTLE OFFENSE: I didn’t talk about the Seahawks pick from last week in my Week 8 analysis because it was just a two-unit bet, but we were lucky to win that one. Seattle trailed 20-17 for what seemed like an eternity, but was gifted a drive with great field position because of a Walker interception. The Seahawks finally scored a touchdown, but it felt like pulling teeth because Geno Smith had struggled the entire afternoon.

Granted, Smith was in a tough matchup, but this would qualify as such as well. The Ravens are fourth when it comes to defending the pass, so they’re one of the rare teams that can handle Seattle’s talented receiving corps.

The Ravens are also stout versus the run. They’ll be able to bottle up Phillip Walker, forcing Smith into obvious passing downs. This will obviously make it difficult for Smith to sustain drives once again.

RECAP: I think most bettors are looking at this spread in disbelief. Both the Ravens and Seahawks have been terrific lately, but why is this line so high? I think many would say the Ravens should be closer to -3 than -6, yet here we are, just a half a point shy of that key number.

The Ravens, however, have been playing on another level. They’re ranked first in adjusted EPA, coming in eighth on offense and second defensively. The Seahawks are also in the top 10, but they’re near the outer edge of that grouping. Their defense is first, but their offense is 21st. There were certainly some warts present with Geno Smith against the Browns, and Baltimore has an even better defense, so Smith could struggle again.

With that in mind, it’s not a surprise that the sharps have come in on the Ravens. I’m not in love with this spread, but I think Baltimore is the right side. I’ll have this only for office pool purposes unless there are some surprise injuries.

THURSDAY THOUGHTS: This line has risen to -6, which might entice some sharp bettors because six is such a major key number. The decision to move the line up to that key number is telling though.

SATURDAY NOTES: As of Saturday morning, there are three sharps sides on this slate. One sharp side is Seattle. This surprised me, given how high the line is. But then I spoke to Jacob on our weekly call, and he made a great point. He suggested that this line set by the books was an underestimation of how the public viewed the Seahawks. The books thought they would get Baltimore money, even at -6, but action has been even. The sharps, however, have hammered Seattle. Also, this is more of a statement game for the Seahawks, who have major back-door opportunities in this game. I’m going to switch sides to Seattle.

PLAYER PROPS: Zay Flowers has gone under 56.5 receiving yards in all but two games since Week 3. That, along with the fact that Seattle has allowed the third-fewest fantasy points to outside receivers makes me want to bet under 56.5 -114, which is available at FanDuel. You can Get $200 in bonus bets from FanDuel by clicking the link.

FINAL THOUGHTS: I was going to consider Seattle for a small bet if we got +7, but I can’t find that line. The best spread is +6.5 -108 at Bookmaker. There is some sharp money coming in on the Seahawks.

Arizona Cardinals (1-7) at Cleveland Browns (4-4)
Line: Browns 13. Total: 38.
Sunday, Nov. 5, 1:00 PM


The Matchup. Edge: Browns.

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CLEVELAND OFFENSE: It’s unclear when Deshaun Watson will return from his rotator cuff injury, but I’m just going to assume Phillip Walker will get the start unless I hear otherwise. It’s never appealing to back Walker as a favorite, let alone one of more than a touchdown.

However, Walker has a great matchup at his disposal, and that would involve the rushing attack. The Cardinals are one of the worst teams in the NFL at defending the run, and if you don’t believe me, just re-watch the Rams-Cardinals game, or look at what Gus Edwards did on the ground last week. The Browns love to pound the ball these days, and Jerome Ford will be healthier after making a surprise appearance last week. Ford and Kareem Hunt should be able to gash the Cardinals with ease.

With the running game working so well, Walker will have easy throwing opportunities. He’ll need them against an Arizona defense that gets decent pressure on the quarterback and has an improved secondary with some players returning from injury.

ARIZONA OFFENSE: It would have been nice to see Joshua Dobbs return to Cleveland to battle his former team, but Jonathan Gannon doesn’t like nice things. Gannon has pulled the plug on the Dobbs operation, opting to use rookie Clayton Tune instead.

I watched all of Tune’s preseason highlights in preparation for this game. I was impressed with him as a thrower and an athlete. Tune throws a pretty ball with very good accuracy and decent arm strength. He can also scramble out of pressure. However, he sometimes didn’t seem to see the field all that well, and that got him into some trouble. I suppose this is common for a rookie quarterback, but it could mean that he’ll commit some turnovers against Jim Schwartz’s defense.

It would help if the Cardinals could run the ball to ease some pressure off Tune. This, however, has not been a part of Arizona’s offense since James Conner suffered an injury versus the Bengals.

RECAP: I can’t say I understand Gannon’s decision-making. Starting Tune over Dobbs seems like a mistake, especially in this matchup. Backup quarterbacks tend to cover more often than not, but the exception to the rule is when they battle a top-12 defense. The Browns obviously qualify as such.

Tune is an unknown quantity, but it’s hard to imagine him not struggling versus Cleveland. Then again, it’s not like Walker is definitely going to thrive in this matchup either. I don’t want to bet him to cover a spread higher than seven, yet here we are, because of Gannon’s quarterback switch.

This seems like a horrendous game to bet, so I’m going to stay off of it. I’m penciling in the Cardinals for now because the Browns could be unfocused with Baltimore on the horizon, but I’ll be surprised if I end up betting this game.

THURSDAY THOUGHTS: This is currently a 90/10 game for the public. It’s still early, but that would automatically have me look at Arizona. By the way, I’ve done a lot of research into how backup quarterbacks have played, and in the past 100 games, there have been only two occasions in which a backup quarterback has been favored by more than a touchdown. In both instances, Brock Purdy was the starting quarterback. Call me crazy, but Walker is no Brock Purdy.

SATURDAY NOTES: So, we initially thought that this would be a game between Phillip Walker and Clayton Tune. Then, Deshaun Watson was announced back, and the spread ballooned to 10. After that, Kyler Murray was listed as questionable. The line is still 10 at the moment, which is very appealing if Murray returns. Then again, Tune could be a disaster, so it’s tough to bet this game without having all the data. Here’s the latest, according to NFL Network reporter Omar Ruiz: “In the portion of Cardinals practice open to the media, Kyler Murray threw to receivers lower on the depth chart or practice squad players while Clayton Tune and Jeff Driskel threw to the starters.” Who knows what this truly means, but it’s an indication that Murray will sit another week. This is all important because Arizona +10 would look very appealing with Murray, especially against a potentially injured Watson.

FINAL THOUGHTS: This spread got steamed up to -13 with heavy public betting on the Browns. A bit of sharp action came in on Arizona at +13, moving the line down to +12.5 at some sportsbooks. I’m still siding with the Cardinals, but have no interest in betting this game. The best line is a standard +13 -110 available in many sportsbooks.

Los Angeles Rams (3-5) at Green Bay Packers (2-5)
Line: Packers by 4. Total: 37.5.
Sunday, Nov. 5, 1:00 PM


The Matchup. Edge: None.

If you missed it, I have an NFL Betting Props page. I’ll be adding to it as the season progresses!

Also, Confidence Pool Picks will return. They’ll be posted by Wednesday morning each week!

LOS ANGELES OFFENSE: The major news heading into this game is that Matthew Stafford sprained a ligament in his thumb, causing him to leave the Dallas game early. I thought we’d have a good chance at a back-door cover, but that went out the window when Stafford got hurt. Sean McVay downplayed in the injury afterward, but there’s still a real chance that Stafford misses this game with a bye on the horizon.

If Stafford sits, it’ll be Brett Rypien quarterbacking the Rams, which would ordinarily be disastrous. However, Rypien will have a great matchup against the Packers’ 30th-ranked defense. Granted, the Packers have missed lots of players due to injury, but it’ll take some time for the returning players to reach 100 percent. This mainly references Jaire Alexander, who has been torched this year.

The Packers are especially bad when it comes to stopping the run, ranking 26th against it. With that in mind, Rypien won’t have to do much, as Darrell Henderson and Royce Freeman will be able to pick up chunks of yardage to put him in favorable situations.

GREEN BAY OFFENSE: Hilariously, it’s not out of the question that Rypien could be the superior quarterback in this game. That’s how bad “No Cookie” Jordan Love has been. Some defenders of Love will point out that his receivers have dropped countless passes, but even when adjusting for those drops, Love still ranks 30th among starting quarterbacks per the metrics.

The Rams have a pass-funnel defense, so it’ll be up to Love to lead the Packers on consistent drives. I don’t think he’ll be able to do that, as we’ve seen no evidence of him being capable of not screwing up in some fashion. Love will have the occasional deep connection, but there will be more mistakes than successful drives.

Love also won’t be able to count on anything from his rushing attack. The Rams are in the upper half of run defense in the NFL, as they’re coming off a great performance at stopping Tony Pollard. Aaron Jones has been dreadful upon his return anyway, so it’s not like he’d be able to take advantage of a good matchup anyway.

RECAP: I’ve written many times that I love backing good teams using their backup quarterbacks because the players on that team will give 110 percent. Upon doing my research of backup quarterbacks, I’ve found that backing reserve signal-callers is usually a good idea if they have shown that they are at least somewhat competent. The one deterrent would be to fade them versus top-12 defenses.

Rypien has had a decent start or two in the NFL, and it now helps that he’s coached by Sean McVay. Meanwhile, the Packers have not shown any signs that they have a top-12 defense. On the contrary, they’re ranked 30th, with the Redskins and Cardinals being the only teams behind them. I expect the defensive rankings to improve once Alexander and De’Vondre Campbell become fully healthy, but I still don’t see this unit getting near the top 12.

With that in mind, there’s been way too much of an adjustment made for this spread. The Packers are a horrendous team that was a home underdog to the Vikings, yet they’re now three-point favorites versus the Rams, only because of the quarterback change. I think we’re getting good line value with the Rams as a result.

I’m planning on betting the Rams for a few units unless Stafford starts. This may seem to be counterintuitive, but I highly doubt that Stafford will be 100 percent. We’ve seen him struggle with thumb injuries in the past, so I believe he’ll sabotage a potential victory/cover if he tries to play.

THURSDAY THOUGHTS: Matthew Stafford was a DNP in Wednesday’s practice. This is for the best because I don’t want to back an injured quarterback. Give me Brett Rypien and a better number!

SATURDAY NOTES: Matthew Stafford missed practice all week, which is music to my ears. We still have to confirm that he’s out though because the Rams could always start him on Sunday despite him not practicing at all.

PLAYER PROP: Excluding the Thursday Detroit game when he suffered a concussion, Luke Musgrave has eclipsed 25.5 receiving yards in four of his six contests as a pro. He should make it five of seven, given how bad the Rams are at defending tight ends. The best vig you can get that’s not on Pinnacle is 25.5 -110 on DraftKings. You can Get $200 in bonus bets from DraftKings by clicking the link.

FINAL THOUGHTS: Some sharp money has come in on the Packers after the Matthew Stafford announcement was made, then other pro money came in on Rams +4. Stafford is out, which is exactly what I was hoping for. The best line is +4 -110 at PointsBet. You can Get up to $1,000 in second-chance bets at PointsBet by clicking the link.

Tampa Bay Buccaneers (3-4) at Houston Texans (3-4)
Line: Texans by 2.5. Total: 40.
Sunday, Nov. 5, 1:00 PM


The Matchup. Edge: None.

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HOUSTON OFFENSE: C.J. Stroud is coming off his lowest yardage output of the season, but it’s something that was predictable once the final inactives were released 90 minutes prior to kickoff. Brian Burns was scheduled to play along with some players returning from injury. Carolina’s defense reverted to the stellar unit we saw versus the Saints and the Seahawks, at least before they lost everyone in the latter affair.

I fully expect Stroud to rebound. The Buccaneers’ defense ranks 27th in EPA, as they couldn’t even get off the field versus the Falcons. Had Desmond Ridder not fumbled twice at the 1-yard line, Tampa Bay would have relinquished close to 30 points to Atlanta. The primary problem is the pass rush. The Buccaneers are eighth-worst in pressure rate, so Stroud, who is well protected, will have all the time he needs to locate his receivers. It’s worth noting that the Buccaneers blitz often, but Stroud should do just fine in those situations because he has a higher completion percentage when blitzed as opposed to facing a normal pass rush.

The Buccaneers will at least be able to stop the run. While they can’t do anything versus opposing passing attacks, they can at least clamp down on the rush. They rank third against the run, and it’s not like the two-headed monster of Dameon Pierce and Devin Singletary is performing well anyway.

TAMPA BAY OFFENSE: While the Buccaneers are stout against the run, the Texans most certainly are not. They have a run-funnel defense. However, this is a matchup in which they won’t be hurt too hard by their inability to stop the run. Rachaad White, while being a solid receiver out of the backfield, is one of the least-efficient starting running backs in the NFL.

Of course, the strength of the Buccaneers offense is the receiving corps. The Texans will try to disrupt Baker Mayfield getting the ball to Mike Evans and Chris Godwin by pressuring the quarterback heavily. The Texans should have some success in this regard because they’re in the middle of the pack at generating pressure, while the Buccaneers can’t pass protect at all.

I still expect Mayfield to have some successful strikes to his receivers, however. The Texans are just mediocre in their coverage grades, which obviously doesn’t bode well versus two very talented receivers. However, Mayfield is a rather sub par passer, so there’s no guarantee that he’ll be able to lead consistent drives.

RECAP: The Buccaneers are not a good team. That goes without saying, or at least it should. The reason why it’s not a given is that they had some misleading results at the beginning of the season. They beat the Vikings when Kirk Cousins imploded with tons of mistakes. They were up by only three versus the Bears before Justin Fields’ pick-six at the very end. And they beat the Saints only because Derek Carr couldn’t throw the ball downfield because of his shoulder injury.

Tampa has lost its other games, and I expect this to be another defeat. I think people will believe these teams are similar because they have identical records, but that couldn’t be further from the truth. The metrics say that the Texans are an average team. Even when excluding the win over the Jaguars and Steelers because Jacksonville and Pittsburgh were clearly looking ahead, the Texans rank right in the middle of the pack in both offense and defense. They’re 15th in net EPA. Conversely, the Buccaneers are 29th. Sure, they have their two great receivers, but that’s all they have going for them. They’re 22nd in offense and 27th in defense.

Despite the disparity between these teams, this line is only -2.5 because of team records. Well, as I always say, team records are the siren song of the uninformed ESPN viewer, so let’s take advantage of that and bet the Texans, who are coming off a loss in which they outgained the Panthers in total yards and yards per play.

THURSDAY THOUGHTS: I may lock in the Texans on Thursday night once I see a second injury report. The sharps are betting the Texans, so this line may move to -3.

SATURDAY NOTES: I said I’d lock this in earlier, and that’s what I’m doing now. Many books have moved this line to -3, but BetMGM and PointsBet have -2.5 -115 available. You can Get $1,500 in bonus bets from BetMGM by clicking the link.

PLAYER PROP: I’m targeting Noah Brown in this game. Robert Woods is out, so Brown will be the slot receiver. This is should be a lucrative situation because the Buccaneers have allowed the most fantasy points to slot receivers this year. We’re going after receptions because over 2.5 seems very feasible. Brown has played in only three games this year, and he has eclipsed 2.5 in two of those contests. The best vig is -119 at Caesars.

FINAL THOUGHTS: I’m glad I locked in this pick at -2.5 -115 because the best line is now -2.5 -120 at several sportsbooks, including Bookmaker, BetMGM and DraftKings. The sharps haven’t touched this game.

Washington Redskins (3-5) at New England Patriots (2-6)
Line: Patriots by 3. Total: 40.5.
Sunday, Nov. 5, 1:00 PM


The Matchup. Edge: Patriots.

If you’ve followed this site for a while, you might remember that I like to respond to my spam mails. It all started numerous years ago, when a man named Jon Wire from the “United Bank of Africoan” promised me an ATM card of some sort, so I responded as a man named Mister Compassion Chuck Norris, who was raised by wolves. The following season, I received e-mails from Richard Held and Loon Bruce, who told me I won a Facebook Award, which comes with a “lump sum pay out of (750,000.00 GBP).” Pretending to be Matthew Millen Kim, I sent out my application and fake money.

I’ve been messing around with spammers ever since, pretending to be Harvey Weinstein, Joe Biden, Ramsay Bolton and Walter White. I have plenty of Spam Mails this year, so check them out if you want to see me screw with spammers. I’ll have new ones every week this year!

NEW ENGLAND OFFENSE: It’s currently 1:33 p.m. Eastern time on Tuesday as I’m writing this, and there’s been just one trade today. That was Montez Sweat heading to the Bears for a second-round pick. I wrote about this on my NFL Trade Grades page, but this obviously hurts Washington’s defense.

The one thing the Redskins defense didn’t do poorly was rush the passer, but that’s now in doubt. Sweat will sorely be missed, and his absence will make Washington’s horrific secondary even worse. The Redskins have been torched by everyone this year, even the Falcons and Broncos, so Mac Jones will have some success even though he sucks.

Jones, however, won’t have his top receiver at his disposal, as Kendrick Bourne suffered a season-ending injury in the fourth quarter of last week’s game. Even though it’s a brilliant matchup, it’s hard to imagine Jones having a great game, or anything. He won’t have too much help from the running game either, given that New England struggles to block.

WASHINGTON OFFENSE: No one would have believed that the Redskins would have a better offense than defense heading into the year, but that has been the case. Sam Howell was terrific last week, throwing for nearly 400 yards against the Eagles. Ultimately, it was the defense that let him down.

Howell had a great matchup versus the Eagles, but the same can’t be said in this game. It’s not a terrible situation for Howell because the Patriots are 30th against the pass. Like the Eagles and Redskins, they’ve been shredded by most opposing aerial attacks. They couldn’t even get off the field when battling Brian Hoyer.

So, why isn’t a great spot? Bill Belichick is the ultimate mastermind, and he often has great success versus young quarterbacks, especially at home. The one caveat here is that Belichick’s defense is so banged up that he may not be able to work his usual magic. Still, it’s not like Howell will be in a great spot because the Patriots thrive at stopping the run.

RECAP: I’m glad I had a clean break from the Patriots. Betting on them was like being in an abusive relationship. I finally broke up with New England during the Buffalo game. Seeing the Patriots cover was like stalking the ex on Facebook to see that she was dating some new guy. I thought about getting back with the Patriots last week, but I talked myself out of it. I found some new loves, and they hurt me all the same.

Now, I’m full fade of New England. It feels weird, almost as if I’m cheating, but I’m metaphorically a single man now. I can bet against the Patriots and not feel bad about it. Actually, I can feel quite great because this spread doesn’t make sense. Why are the Patriots -3.5 over anyone except for maybe Arizona? They are garbage. They lost their top receiver to injury, while their defense can’t stop the pass.

I thought the sharps would be on the Patriots again, but they’re treating this team similarly. They’re slightly on the Redskins, which is music to my ears because the spread is not correct. I thought New England -1 was appropriate before the Sweat trade, but the EPA numbers suggest Washington should be -1.5. My only concern is Belichick going against a young quarterback, but I don’t think he has the defense to take advantage of a young quarterback at home like he usually does. Plus, the Patriots could be distracted with a Germany game on the horizon.

THURSDAY THOUGHTS: This game is so unappealing. The Patriots shouldn’t be bet at -3.5 against anyone, especially with a Germany travel distraction on the horizon. On the other hand, the Redskins might be a no-show after two of their better players were traded.

SATURDAY NOTES: I still can’t make sense of this game. Let’s just move on.

FINAL THOUGHTS: Trent Brown is out, but I’m not sure how much that matters against a Redskins defense missing both of its top edge rushers. The sharps haven’t touched this game, which is not a surprise. The best line is +3 -120 at Bookmaker and BetMGM.

Chicago Bears (2-6) at New Orleans Saints (4-4)
Line: Saints by 9.5. Total: 42.
Sunday, Nov. 5, 1:00 PM


The Matchup. Edge: Saints.

Video of the Week: There’s a show called Golden Balls, and no, it’s not something Matt Millen would be into. It’s a show where two people can rob each other of prize money, and they’re even given a chance to discuss it beforehand. This was the craziest episode:



The fat guy was a genius because he forced the other man into splitting. They probably would have f**ked each other otherwise.

NEW ORLEANS OFFENSE: Poor Derek Carr thought he was going to have a clean pocket in this game. The Bears ranked dead last in pressure rate, so Carr was likely salivating at the matchup. That will no longer be the case because Chicago traded for Montez Sweat. A devastating pass rusher, Sweat will give the Bears a pass-rushing presence they haven’t maintained since the days of Khalil Mack.

The Saints aren’t protected well, so Carr may not be able to connect on as many deep throws as he did last week. Carr torched the Colts relentlessly from a clean pocket, but Sweat could help disrupt that.

Sweat also happens to be a stellar run defender, but Chicago didn’t really need help in that area. The Bears shockingly rank first when it comes to stopping the run, so they’ll be even better with Sweat on the field. They’ll be able to limit Alvin Kamara and Taysom Hill, forcing Carr into unfavorable situations.

CHICAGO OFFENSE: It’s not a good sign for Justin Fields’ recovery time that Tyson Bagent was already named the starter on Monday. Bagent had a solid first start, but was shaky versus the Chargers. He had some nice moments in Los Angeles, but made a couple of mistakes that sabotaged the potential all-important back-door cover.

Bagent has been better than people thought, but this is an extremely difficult matchup, especially if he’s missing multiple offensive linemen once again. We’ll see if Nate Davis plays, but if he doesn’t, Bagent will be pressured heavily by the Saints’ improved pass rush. Meanwhile, D.J. Moore will be smothered by Marshon Lattimore, so Bagent will have to look elsewhere. Cole Kmet won’t be much of an option because New Orleans clamps down on tight ends. Darnell Mooney might be the best bet because the Saints struggle against slot receivers.

Bagent won’t get much help from his rushing attack either. The Saints are fourth versus the run, and neither D’Onta Foreman nor Roschon Johnson are good enough to overcome such a stellar front.

RECAP: It sucks that these teams are playing each other this week because I believe both to be underrated. The Saints are fourth in net EPA, thanks to their Kamara-enhanced offense and ninth-ranked defense. No one is buying them as a good team because they’re 4-4 and have some sketchy losses, but they are legit. Meanwhile, the Bears just suffered a dumb loss on Sunday night, thanks to horrible officiating and brutal drops, but they’re 11th in offense and 16th in defense. They’re 13th in net EPA. These rankings obviously don’t factor in the Sweat addition.

The sharps are torn on this game as well. Some pros bet the Saints up to -7.5, but other sharps have come in on the Bears at +7.5.

I can understand the quandary. I would have taken the Saints at less than -7.5, but at that number, it’s appealing to get every key number with an underrated Chicago squad. I’m going to side with the Bears, but I don’t plan on betting them at the moment.

THURSDAY THOUGHTS: The Bears could be very short-handed in this game, with Nate Davis, Tremaine Edmunds and Jaquan Brisker missing Wednesday’s practice. If things don’t improve by Friday, I’ll switch to New Orleans.

SATURDAY NOTES: I’m going to be tilted if the Saints lose. Their locker room is dealing with numerous illnesses again. I thought this would adversely affect them last week, but it didn’t. Will it this time? Maybe, but I don’t want to bet on Tyson Bagent versus a top-10 defense.

PLAYER PROPS: The Saints allow the sixth-most fantasy points to slot receivers. Darnell Mooney should be able to clear 2.5 receptions, which is what he did with Tyson Bagent against the Raiders. He had four catches in that game, so he is likely to get at least three. The best vig is -106 at FanDuel. You can Get $200 in bonus bets from FanDuel by clicking the link.

FINAL THOUGHTS: There’s some sharp money on the Bears at +9.5, dropping this line to +9 in most sportsbooks. You can still find +9.5 -108 at Bookmaker. I have no interest in this game.