NFL Picks Against the Spread: Week 7, 2023

Jacksonville Jaguars (4-2) at New Orleans Saints (3-3)
Line: Saints by 2.5. Total: 39.
Thursday, Oct. 19, 8:15 PM


The Matchup. Edge: Jaguars.

Week 6 Analysis: I apologized last week, and I apparently didn’t do so enough because Week 6 was worse than Week 5. This is the worst stretch of handicapping I’ve had in memory, so the question is: Am I getting unlucky, or is there something fundamentally wrong with my handicapping? Or is it both? I don’t know the answer to that question even though it’s been the only thing on my mind since the Sunday afternoon games concluded. I’ll once again break down all the 3+ unit picks each week:

Ravens, 3 units (win): Things seemed so promising after the London game.

Saints, 3 units (loss): Were the Saints the wrong side? Perhaps. But then again, the Saints outgained the Texans, 430-297, and they averaged 0.5 more yards per play. C.J. Stroud did absolutely nothing in the second half. I was right about the New Orleans defense shutting down Stroud, but the Saints repeatedly squandered opportunities inside the red zone. Maybe I’m wrong, but I feel like the Saints would have covered against the Texans more often than not in a large sample size.

Colts, 5 units (loss): I thought this was going to be a terrible spot for the Jaguars, and maybe it was. The Colts outgained the Jaguars, 354-233, and averaged 0.9 more yards per play. However, they got blown out because Gardner Minshew couldn’t stop throwing to the other team. Perhaps siding with a backup quarterback against a top-10 defense was a mistake (Jacksonville ranked 8th in defensive EPA entering the week.) Then again, Phillip Walker covered against the 49ers … albeit with lots of injuries for San Francisco. What do you make of this phenomenon? If I have time this week – which is difficult with two kids under two – I want to break down how backup quarterbacks have fared versus top-10 defenses over the years.

Patriots, 8 units (loss): This is perhaps the worst beat I’ve ever had. The previous worst beat was when I had the Dolphins at +6 versus the Saints, and they were up something like 17-0. I got a call from my dad congratulating me for the pick, and then the Saints ended up winning by double digits. By the end though, it was apparent New Orleans would cover. This game, on the other hand, robbed us of a win on the final real snap from scrimmage. The Patriots were down 19-17 as three-point dogs. Had DeVante Parker caught a deep pass, or if the team hadn’t been flagged for a delay of game, a safety never would have happened, but it did. I don’t think I ever would have lost a Pick of the Month on a safety, but apparently, there’s a first time for everything. I will maintain that I had the right side because this stupid Raiders team shouldn’t have been favored by three or more over anyone in the NFL. They couldn’t even score 20 points against the Broncos and Chargers defenses! Meanwhile, the Patriots played nothing but tough opponents leading up to the game. I thought New England would be way more competitive, and I was right. It was a two-point game before that bulls**t safety. F**k this.

Cardinals, 4 units (loss): Way off here. I clearly misevaluated at least one of these teams. Or did I? I had the Cardinals as a bottom-six team in the NFL, and I rated the Rams No. 15. Am I wrong to think that an average team shouldn’t be favored by a touchdown over a bottom-six team, especially when it’s in a bad spot? Arizona was up 9-6 at halftime, but self-destructed in the second half, which has been a common theme for this team.

I want to include a new segment here, where I list “obvious” picks in hindsight that I did not bet. There’s only one I see:

Lions -3 at Buccaneers: This is why I think I’m both bad and unlucky right now. How did I not see the Lions -3 as being an obvious side? I love Detroit, and I thought Tampa Bay was overrated. I wrote that this was a bad matchup for the Lions, but apparently not, because Detroit outgained Tampa, 380-251, and averaged 0.9 more yards per play.

Otherwise, Week 6 was pretty funky. There were several “wrong side, right result” games. The Falcons outgained the Redskins, 402-193, and averaged 1.2 more yards per play, but lost. The Bears outgained the Vikings, 275-220, and averaged 0.2 more yards per play, but didn’t cover as an underdog. The Seahawks outgained the Bengals, 381-214, and averaged 1.4 more yards per play, but didn’t cover as an underdog. Keep in mind that I didn’t bet any of these games, so this is an unbiased analysis. Had I wagered on the Redskins, Bears, or Seahawks, I would have been even saltier right now.

If you haven’t visited the site in a while, you may have noticed the new look. Yes, after nearly two decades, we’ve finally re-designed our site to be more modern. This was not done on a whim, but rather out of necessity because of what occurred during the 2023 NFL Draft. Our site crashed during the entire first day of the draft, which was disastrous for our revenue stream because we make more money during the draft than any other time. The site crashed because a line of code conflicted with the old format of the site, so we had to transition to this new look.

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JACKSONVILLE OFFENSE: Trevor Lawrence’s status is currently unknown. For some reason, the Jaguars were passing last week despite being up a billion points. This proved costly, as Lawrence hurt his knee. It’s unclear if he’ll be available for this contest.

The Jaguars already had a tough matchup, so Lawrence’s availability and effectiveness will be crucial. They’ll need a strong passing attack because the Saints are excellent versus the run. Travis Etienne has been highly productive lately, but he’ll have trouble being so in this game.

Furthermore, Lawrence’s weapons will be limited. If Zay Jones is sidelined, the Jaguars will have just one viable outside receiver (Calvin Ridley) against Marshon Lattimore. Meanwhile, Evan Engram will be battling a defense that routinely shuts down tight ends. It’ll be difficult for a backup quarterback to navigate this sort of defensive presence.

NEW ORLEANS OFFENSE: Given how potent the Saints’ defense is, the Jaguars will need a heroic effort from their stop unit to have a chance if Lawrence is sidelined. They have a great defense, so there definitely is hope.

One area the Jaguars will be able to easily exploit is the New Orleans offensive line. The Saints have sketchy blocking, while the Jaguars have the ninth-best pressure rate in the NFL. Derek Carr will often be under siege, which could lead to some turnovers. The Jaguars will need to rattle Carr because they’ve been weak to No. 1 receivers this year. Chris Olave could have a big game.

Jacksonville has also thrived at stopping the run. Alvin Kamara figures to struggle to run, but he’ll continue to be an effective receiver out of the backfield.

RECAP: One thing I hate doing is backing an injured quarterback. Lawrence might be injured with a knee issue after leaving the game late versus Indianapolis. We just don’t know his status at the moment, making this game difficult to handicap.

There are three possibilities:

– If Lawrence is 100 percent, I’ll like the Jaguars. Both teams have top-10 defenses, but I trust Jacksonville’s offense more than New Orleans’ offense, especially now that Cam Robinson is back at left tackle for the Jaguars.

– If I know Lawrence is going to be playing hurt, I’ll be on the Saints. Suddenly, New Orleans’ offense will look more appealing with Lawrence banged up.

– If Lawrence is sidelined, I’ll consider the Jaguars for a bet. I like backing reserve quarterbacks playing for good teams, but I’ll be hesitant, given that the Saints have a top-10 defense. I plan on doing research on this, so hopefully I’ll have something by the Thursday Thoughts.

Our Week 7 NFL Picks will be posted all day Tuesday. Follow @walterfootball for updates.

THURSDAY THOUGHTS: Wow, the Saints’ offensive line is in shambles. Ryan Ramczyk, James Hurst and Andrus Peat are all sidelined. The Saints could also miss Demario Davis, who didn’t practice all week. The Jaguars have their injury issues as well – Tyson Campbell, Brandon Scherff and Zay Jones are all out, while Trevor Lawrence is a question mark – but the Saints have the cluster injuries that are so impactful. Also, this may mean nothing, but Derek Carr was on the injury report with both shoulder and chest injuries. What if he’s not 100 percent either? I may bet the Jaguars depending on Lawrence’s status.

FINAL THOUGHTS: The Saints are down three offensive linemen tonight, but they’ll at least have Demario Davis available. I’m going to bet a unit on the Jaguars, but nothing more because Trevor Lawrence, while active, could be limited versus a tough defense. The best line is +2.5 -105 at Bovada, followed by +2.5 -107 at Bookmaker. There’s a slight sharp lean toward the Saints, but nothing significant. I’ll post a couple of props in a second.

PLAYER PROPS: I’m betting on Christian Kirk tonight. The Saints are poor against slot receivers, and with Zay Jones sidelined, he has the best matchup. I’m going over 52.5 receiving yards -115 and first touchdown. The best first touchdown is at BetMGM. You can get $1,500 in bonus bets from BetMGM by clicking the link.

Atlanta Falcons (3-3) at Tampa Bay Buccaneers (3-2)
Line: Buccaneers by 3. Total: 37.5.
Sunday, Oct. 22, 1:00 PM


The Matchup. Edge: None.

My overrated-underrated feature was posted in this spot the past couple of years. I thought it would be better if there was less clutter on this page, so I set up a new NFL Overrated and Underrated Teams page that will be updated every Monday. I have overrated and underrated teams listed there, and some may shock you!

ATLANTA OFFENSE: I don’t understand what Arthur Smith is doing. His front office spent a top-10 pick on a generational talent at running back, yet he’s giving carries to Tyler Allgeier instead. Meanwhile, he hasn’t benched Desmond Ridder yet, despite Ridder avoiding his talented receiving weapons in crucial moments. Sure, Ridder has Drake London and Kyle Pitts, but why not throw it to the No. 4 receiver on a big fourth down instead?

The Falcons should get back to running the ball with Bijan Robinson, but that could prove to be challenging in this contest. The Buccaneers are eighth against the run, so Robinson will have to do his damage as a receiver out of the backfield.

The Buccaneers are a bit worse against the pass than the run, ranking 12th in that regard. Their pass rush is middling, so they have to blitz a lot; they blitz at the fourth-highest rate in the NFL. Ridder has been slightly better when blitzed this year, so perhaps that bodes well for Atlanta.

TAMPA BAY OFFENSE: The Falcons are hanging around with a 3-3 record despite Smith’s terrible play-calling and decision-making because of their defense. They’ve been so much better on this side of the ball in 2023, having limited the Lions and Jaguars offenses to 20 and 16 points, respectively. The Redskins scored 24 last week, but didn’t even have 200 net yards of offense!

The Falcons’ pass rush is so much better this season. Atlanta’s sudden ability to get to the quarterback will frustrate Baker Mayfield, who will be throwing into tight coverage. The Falcons have gotten excellent play from their cornerbacks, so Mike Evans and Chris Godwin don’t have great matchups.

Atlanta also happens to be third versus the rush, but I didn’t expect much from Rachaad White anyway. White is a solid receiver out of the backfield, but he sucks at rushing the ball.

RECAP: If you clicked the overrated-underrated link I have posted above, you may have noticed that I have the Buccaneers as overrated and the Falcons as underrated. This may confuse some, given that the Buccaneers have the better record, while Atlanta just lost to the Redskins. However, the Buccaneers were lucky with some of their early wins, while the Falcons have outplayed every non-top 10 team they’ve battled thus far. As stated in the link, they outgained Washington by a large margin.

With that in mind, we’re getting an underrated team with points. Also, the Falcons are in a much better spot. The Buccaneers could be looking ahead to their Thursday night affair against the Bills. Sure, that’s a non-conference game, and this is a divisional battle, but Buffalo is a marquee matchup. Plus, the Buccaneers may not take the Falcons very seriously after watching last week’s result.

I plan on betting three or so units on the Falcons. If we were getting +3 or better, this unit count would be considerably higher.

THURSDAY THOUGHTS: No +3 yet, but I still like the Falcons quite a bit. It’s remarkable how little there is for these teams on the injury report. Almost no one is listed for both teams.

SATURDAY NOTES: I’m seeing a +3 -125 at Bookmaker. I thought about locking that in, but I think we can get something better by Sunday morning.

PLAYER PROP: Atlanta’s defense is extremely underrated. Its cornerbacks have been outstanding. I’m betting Mike Evans under receiving yards. The best available number to me is under 59.5 -113 at FanDuel. You can Get $200 in bonus bets from FanDuel by clicking the link.

FINAL THOUGHTS: Vita Vea was the only questionable player entering this game, but he’s active. The best line is Falcons +3 -115 at Bovada, followed by +3 -117 at Bookmaker. The sharps are split on this game.

Las Vegas Raiders (3-3) at Chicago Bears (1-5)
Line: Raiders by 3. Total: 37.5.
Sunday, Oct. 22, 1:00 PM


The Matchup. Edge: None.

VEGAS UPDATE: I’ll be posting how the Vegas sportsbooks have done the previous week in this spot. The highest-bet sides were 34-42 in 2020 and 48-37 in 2021. The highest bet sides were 32-35-1 last year, and they are now 12-10 ATS.

Here are the teams getting the most bets last week:

49ers -9

Eagles -6.5

Dolphins -14.5

Bengals -3

The public was 2-2 on sides last week, losing the 49ers and Eagles, but winning with the Dolphins and Bengals.

Here are the teams getting the most bets this week:

Browns -2

49ers -7

Raiders -3

Buccaneers -2.5

Seahawks -8.5

Surprise, surprise, three road favorites as the most highly bet teams. Didn’t see that one coming!

CHICAGO OFFENSE: Who is playing quarterback for these teams? No one knows at the moment. Justin Fields is reportedly doubtful for this game, meaning Tyson Bagent will get the nod. I don’t have any current notes on the Secret Bagent Man, but I want to go back to the preseason tape and watch it prior to the Thursday Thoughts.

I’ll have more analysis on Bagent later in the week, but I can tell you right now that he has a favorable matchup against the Raiders, who struggle to stop the pass. Maxx Crosby can disrupt things, but if the Bears are smart and double team him, Bagent should have a clean pocket against the NFL’s 30th-ranked pressure rate.

The Raiders also suck at stopping the run. They’re 29th in that regard. Roschon Johnson, who figures to clear concussion protocol ahead of this game, could have a breakout performance.

LAS VEGAS OFFENSE: Jimmy Garoppolo is not guaranteed to play either. He was taken to the hospital for a back injury this past Sunday. While his issues don’t sound overly severe, he could sit out a game, meaning Brian Hoyer will play.

Hoyer is a smart quarterback, but won’t challenge opposing defenses. The Bears have a miserable stop unit on paper, but their secondary has improved with Jaylon Johnson, Kyler Gordon and Eddie Jackson returning from injury. All three players weren’t especially good versus the Vikings, indicating that they weren’t 100 percent, but they should be better versus the Raiders. It may seem like they’ll have their hands full with Davante Adams and Jakobi Meyers, but Adams hasn’t been effective in weeks. He’s not 100 percent either.

The Raiders will naturally turn to the running game. Like Johnson, Josh Jacobs has a promising matchup. The Bears are better versus the run than the Raiders, but they’re still just 20th against it.

RECAP: It’s currently unclear who will quarterback each team, as both Garoppolo and Fields suffered injuries last week. We may not know Garoppolo’s status until the end of the week, but it sounds like Fields will be sidelined.

In a vacuum, I’d like the Bears. I said this when I bet the Patriots last week, but the Raiders do not deserve to be three-point favorites over anyone. The Raiders are a bottom-10 team in the NFL metrics-wise, and yet, they’ve had such an easy schedule for the most part. It’s astonishing that they needed a safety last week to reach 20 points for the first time all year despite battling the Broncos and Chargers defenses. Their stop unit, meanwhile, is ranked 25th.

It’s nice to get four key numbers with the Bears, especially given that the most likely results of this game are Bears by three and Raiders by three in some order. Also, the sharps have been pounding Chicago early in the week, so that’s a good sign. The sharps have been hot this year. They’re 23-20 against the spread overall, but if you exclude instances where they’ve backed the Broncos or Patriots, they’re 23-13.

Unfortunately, we don’t have all the quarterback news at the moment. Assuming that Bagent doesn’t look like a disaster from preseason tape, I’ll be backing the Bears if Garoppolo sits or projects to be playing injured.

THURSDAY THOUGHTS: Neither starting quarterback has practiced yet. I just completed my study of Bagent in the preseason games. He barely played in the first, so I wanted to concentrate on the other two. Statistically, he had a strong second preseason game (9-of-10, 76 yards; 2 carries, 4 rush yards, 1 rush TD) and a poor third preseason game (7-of-14, 43 yards, INT; 4 carries, 22 rush yards, 1 rush TD), so I was eager to see the contrast between the two games.

Bagent started things off in the second preseason game with the Colts with a nice throw on the move for a gain of 13 yards. This was a play-action bootleg, something I saw plenty of from Bagent. As you can tell by his rushing stats, he can definitely move pretty well. He’s definitely no Justin Fields, but his rushing ability will be significant for DFS purposes. Bagent also showed good accuracy, completing every pass except for one short toss that would have gone for a 6-yard gain. It looked like the ball just got away from him in that instance. The only negative from this game was that Bagent walked into a sack.

The third preseason game was more significant because of the poor numbers. I found that those stats were misleading. The interception he had was the result of a miscommunication between him and Daurice Fountain. Bagent also endured three drops, two of which would have impacted his stats significantly. The first drop was in the flat by Robert Tonyan. The second drop would have been a touchdown pass of about 20 yards, but practice squad tight end Stephen Carlson let the ball go through his hands. The third drop would have gone for a gain of at least 12.

Bagent did some positives in this game, mostly as a scrambler. He rushed to pick up a first down on a third-and-7 and then later scored on a run. The Bears announcers praised Bagent by saying he had a “good feel in the pocket,” though that was not true on one play where he took a sack because he held the ball too long. Otherwise, Bagent was able to either release passes quickly or scramble away from pressure. I will say this though: Bagent was incredibly lucky that he wasn’t pick-sixed on one play where he stared down his receiver. The ball was deflected, so Bagent was very fortunate. The linebacker who was ready to pick-six him grabbed his helmet in frustration because he knew the batted pass ruined a great play for him.

Despite this, I came away with a mostly positive review of Bagent from the preseason. Of course, he played last week as well. He was 10-of-14 for 83 yards and an interception, plus a lost fumble. He also scored on a rushing touchdown via a sneak. Bagent’s fumble was the result of his running back missing an assignment. The interception was the result of Bagent panicking in the pocket after the snap was high. He made a bad decision by flinging an underthrown pass downfield. He did something similar earlier in the drive, but was bailed out by his receiver. Otherwise, Bagent had a decent debut.

I think Bagent is viable for DFS, especially if people are going to play Brian Hoyer. He offers rushing upside that Hoyer doesn’t possess, so he’d be a good leverage play over a chalky Hoyer. For betting purposes, I think the Bears are safe because Bagent will be going against a bottom-10 defense. I wouldn’t trust him versus a top-10 defense, but Chicago +3 is certainly something considering as a mid-level wager.

SATURDAY NOTES: It’s a shame that a bit of sharp money at +3 took Chicago down to +2.5. I like the Bears at +2.5, but my unit count would be much higher at the original number. Hopefully we’ll have a viable +3 at some point soon.

PLAYER PROP: In his past three games – a quarter in each of his final two preseason games – and the second half of Minnesota’s game, Tyson Bagent has three rushing touchdowns. Bagent is a mobile quarterback who loves to scramble into the end zone. His best anytime and first touchdown score props are on FanDuel. You can Get $200 in bonus bets from FanDuel by clicking the link.

FINAL THOUGHTS: So much for a viable +3. This line has dropped in Chicago’s favor with a bit of sharp action coming in on the home underdog. The best line out there is +2 -110 at Caesars.

Cleveland Browns (3-2) at Indianapolis Colts (3-3)
Line: Browns by 3.5. Total: 39.
Sunday, Oct. 22, 1:00 PM


The Matchup. Edge: TBA.

HATE MAIL: We’re going to post hate mail here this year. I was surprised we didn’t hear Nephatli Diaz last week. He must have been busy receiving those turkeys he claims he gets from his sportsbook manager. Instead, we have this guy:



Imagine having this sort of horrible reading comprehension. Do words quite literally go in one ear and out the other with him?

Here’s more NewmanCan’tRead:



That’s so disrespectful to say that I act like a 5-year-old. We have 8-year-old maturity here at WalterFootball.com.

One more:



Despite possessing no reading comprehension, NewmanCan’tRead is a wordsmith. Who knew?

INDIANAPOLIS OFFENSE: It was reported that Anthony Richardson will be sidelined for the rest of the season, which is a major bummer. As someone who has many Richardson Reignmakers cards, including one elite version, I’m completely distraught. Oh, and it’s going to suck to not see him play because he was exciting when not playing injured.

It’ll be the Gardner Minshew show the rest of the way, which was promising heading into Week 6. And then the Jaguars game happened. Minshew must have thought he was still playing for Jacksonville because he kept throwing the ball to the other team. Granted, the Jaguars have an excellent defense, but Cleveland’s stop unit is even better.

This is one of those instances where it’s unclear if it’s OK to back a reserve quarterback against a top-10 defense; let alone the No. 1 stop unit in the NFL. I’ll have more research on this later in the week, but what we do know now is that the Colts won’t run the ball very well against Cleveland’s stout front.

CLEVELAND OFFENSE: The Browns could start their backup as well this week. Phillip Walker looked like Dan Marino compared to Dorian Thompson-Robinson last week, but he still made some mistakes that could have cost the Browns a potential upset victory. The pass into the end zone late in the game was especially atrocious because the Browns could have bled the clock and still taken the lead with a chip-shot field goal.

It’s unclear if Deshaun Watson will be ready for this game. If he plays, he may not be 100 percent, so it’s fair to assume that the Browns won’t have stellar quarterbacking in this contest. Unlike Minshew, however, either Watson or Walker will have some success, given that the Colts rank 24th against the pass.

Indianapolis is better versus the run than the pass, so Watson/Walker won’t be operating in favorable passing downs. Nick Chubb probably could have overcame this matchup, but he’s another backfield player who won’t be available in this game.

RECAP: Here’s another game where we don’t know the quarterback situation quite yet. Watson is dealing with a rotator cuff bruise, which has caused him to miss the past two games. There was a bye week in between, so it must be one painful bruise.

If this is Walker again, the Browns will continue to play hard for their backup quarterback. I love backing good teams with reserve signal-callers, and Cleveland, with its No. 1 defense, certainly applies. Conversely, if it’s Watson and the spread rises, the Colts will look appealing. The ultra-high effort won’t be there, and there’s no guarantee that Watson will be 100 percent.

I had an inclination to state that my strongest take would be backing the Colts if Watson plays because we’d be getting good value with Indianapolis. However, this would violate the backup quarterback versus top-10 defense stipulation that might be worth considering. Again, I’ll have data on this later in the week.

THURSDAY THOUGHTS: I’m still doing my research into backup quarterbacks versus top-10 defenses, but it’s not looking good for the backup quarterbacks at the moment. Speaking of which, it must be noted that Gardner Minshew is by far the worst quarterback the Browns will have seen this year, aside from Kenny Pickett. They’ve gone against Joe Burrow, Ryan Tannehill, Lamar Jackson, and Brock Purdy. Despite this, they still have the NFL’s No. 1 defense!

SATURDAY NOTES: I was planning to bet the Browns at -3, but some of the sharps had similar ideas, taking the line to -3.5. The number sucks, but this doesn’t: I did my research on backup quarterbacks in the NFL. I looked at the previous 75 times a backup quarterback has started in the NFL. Overall, they’re 39-35-1 ATS, but against top-12 defenses, they’re only 11-20. Many of their wins can be explained, too, like the 49ers suffering countless injuries last week. In short, Gardner Minshew cannot be trusted in this matchup, and I have some interest in betting Cleveland at -3.5. Of course, I’m going to search for a viable -3.

PLAYER PROP: I’m focusing on Amari Cooper in this game, as the Colts allow the seventh-most fantasy points to outside receivers. Cooper has gone over the receiving yards prop in three of five games this year. The two exceptions were the crazy wind game in Week 1, and then the Dorian Thompson-Robinson start in Week 4. I like the over 62.5 -115 we’re getting at BetMGM, with this prop being as high as 67.5 in some sportsbooks. I also like Cooper to score the first touchdown at 11/1. Both are available at BetMGM. You can Get $1,500 in bonus bets from BetMGM by clicking the link.

FINAL THOUGHTS: It sucks that we lost the line value with the Browns. Then again, sportsbooks often don’t get middled, so I’m not too concerned about this game landing on three. The best line is Cleveland -3.5 -105 at BetMGM or Caesars. There’s no sharp action here.

Detroit Lions (5-1) at Baltimore Ravens (4-2)
Line: Ravens by 3. Total: 42.
Sunday, Oct. 22, 1:00 PM


The Matchup. Edge: Ravens.

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DETROIT OFFENSE: The Lions love to run the ball, so the David Montgomery injury could prove to be painful. Montgomery will be out 2-3 weeks, but this could coincide with the return of Jahmyr Gibbs. The athletic rookie hasn’t looked very good when given the chance, but he hasn’t gotten many opportunities as a runner. Gibbs will have his work cut out for him in this matchup, given that Baltimore has the 10th-ranked run defense.

Baltimore is even better against the pass, ranking fifth in that department. This could cause problems for Jared Goff, who is not as good of a quarterback outdoors when the conditions are unfavorable. The conditions certainly don’t seem favorable this week, with heavy winds expected in Baltimore. The current projection is 20-mph gusts, which will make Goff long for the days in which he can play in the comfortable conditions of Ford Field.

Still, the Lions will have some success offensively, as Goff can quickly get the ball to some of his play-makers. Gibbs, Amon-Ra St. Brown and Sam LaPorta are all dangerous players after the catch.

BALTIMORE OFFENSE: Harsh winds will generally benefit Baltimore for two reasons. First, Lamar Jackson is capable of breaking long runs. He can also make short scrambles to pick up crucial first downs. Second, Mark Andrews is a major intermediate threat. Aside from Travis Kelce, there is no better tight end in the NFL.

As it so happens, the Lions happen to be weak against tight ends. Their defense has improved tremendously this season, but their inability to defend the middle of the field could come back to haunt them in this game.

Detroit also happens to be nursing some injuries in the secondary. This would be problematic if it weren’t for the wind. Jackson to Zay Flowers would certainly be a thing, but it doesn’t sound like that’ll be the case.

RECAP: I love the fact that people on TV and various podcasts are suddenly asking, “Are the Lions a Super Bowl contender?” Uhh, where have you guys been? I bet the Lions to win the Super Bowl back in the summer. I also bet them to do so last year, but that was more of a play on the 160/1 number. I got 33/1 this year, which has turned out to be an incredible bargain.

Having said that, this seems to be a nice fade spot for the Lions. Everyone is on their jock now, so they could be “smelling themselves,” as Kenny Ortiz likes to say. More significantly, what exactly do the Lions have to play for? They’re coming off a big win and are now 5-1. They’re way ahead of the second-place team in the division, the 2-3 Packers, whom they already beat. The Ravens, on the other hand, are in a four-way race for the AFC North crown. This game is much more significant for them.

I also find it conspicuous that this spread opened at -2.5, but quickly shot up to -3. It seems like there might be smart money backing the Ravens, which makes me feel more confident in this selection.

THURSDAY THOUGHTS: The more I think about it, the more I like the Ravens. I don’t see how the Lions are going to move the ball through the harsh wind, especially against a top-five defense. The Lions, conversely, didn’t do too well against mobile quarterbacks last year.

SATURDAY NOTES: The wind is still projected to be 20 mph. Again, this favors the Ravens, and I like them for two or three units.

FINAL THOUGHTS: A lot of the Baltimore vig has moved to -115, as a bit of sharp action has been on the Ravens on Sunday morning. I still like the Ravens for three units, and you can get -3 -110 at Caesars.

Buffalo Bills (4-2) at New England Patriots (1-5)
Line: Bills by 7.5. Total: 42.5.
Sunday, Oct. 22, 1:00 PM


The Matchup. Edge: Bills.

If you missed it, I have an NFL Betting Props page. I’ll be adding to it as the season progresses!

Also, Confidence Pool Picks will return. They’ll be posted by Wednesday morning each week!

BUFFALO OFFENSE: This is another game where there are projected to be heavy winds. The estimates are similar to the Ravens-Lions contests with gusts around 20 mph.

If there’s one quarterback who can cut through the wind, it’s Josh Allen. He has a massive arm, so he should be able to successfully hit Stefon Diggs and Gabriel Davis. It helps that he won’t be facing much of a pass rush from the Patriots, who haven’t been able to get to the quarterback since losing Matthew Judon. Even when Allen is pressured, he’ll be able to run for first downs.

The Patriots are at their best stopping the run. That normally wouldn’t be significant in a matchup against the Bills, but I’m sure Buffalo would love to rush the ball more often than usual in windy conditions.

NEW ENGLAND OFFENSE: I thought the Patriots had a chance last week because they had battled nothing but tough defenses before the Raiders’ 27th-ranked unit. Yet, it took them until the fourth quarter to exceed 10 points. This offense is truly dead. Mac Jones is a disaster, while Bill O’Brien has proven himself to be a buffoon once again.

The Bills are missing pierces of their defense, but they still have their stellar pass rush intact. They’ll be able to generate heavy pressure on Jones, who could panic and throw to the other team again.

One area where the Patriots could have success is running the ball with Rhamondre Stevenson and Ezekiel Elliott. I wouldn’t have considered this a possibility two weeks ago, but Matt Milano’s absence has opened a huge void in the middle of Buffalo’s defense.

RECAP: I hate to do this, but I’m going big on the Patriots again. There’s so much value here to pass up. The Bills will be looking ahead to Thursday. I see good matchups for New England across the board. The trends favor the Patriots. Everything favors the Patriots. This is my Double Pick of the Month. Nay, it’s my Pick of the Century!

OK, fine, I’m kidding. I do think the Bills looking ahead to their Thursday night affair versus the Buccaneers is legitimate, but I can’t bring myself to backing the Patriots until they show some signs of life. I thought they were a good bet last week because they were battling a soft opponent for the first time all year. Yet, they couldn’t even cover versus the crappy Raiders. Sure, we had the right side, but we still lost.

I’ll be picking the Bills to cover, but I’m not going to bet them. In addition to the look-ahead factor, I worry about Buffalo missing too much personnel on defense. That could make it difficult for them to cover higher spreads, even against New England.

THURSDAY THOUGHTS: The sharps are on the Patriots again. Unbelievable! I suppose they have to cover at some point, but come on.

SATURDAY NOTES: The sharps are mostly on two sides this week. One is the Patriots, one is the Broncos. I can see this New England pick because the Patriots are so banged up. Ed Oliver is now out in addition to DaQuan Jones, Matt Milano, and Tre’Davious White. In all honesty, if I hadn’t gotten burned by the Patriots so many times, I probably would be betting them here, but I just can’t do that.

FINAL THOUGHTS: I guarantee the Patriots will cover this spread. Why? Because that will tilt me the hardest after the 18-plus-vig units I’ve lost on them in the past three weeks, including last week’s game with that dumb safety. I can’t pick them, but the sharps are betting them.

Washington Redskins (3-3) at New York Giants (1-5)
Line: Redskins by 3. Total: 39.5.
Sunday, Oct. 22, 1:00 PM


The Matchup. Edge: Giants.

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NEW YORK OFFENSE: We have one more bad weather affair to close out the early slate of games. The winds aren’t expected to be as harsh in this game as the Baltimore-Detroit and Buffalo-New England contests, but they’re currently calling for 17-mph winds.

These winds should help the Redskins a bit. Washington has allowed the most deep receptions this year despite having a talented defensive line that can pressure the quarterback. We got so unlucky with some of our prop bets last week, but one easy hit was Drake London over longest reception. The Redskins can’t stop anything deep, and if the winds aren’t as bad as they’re projecting, even the Giants figure to have success.

Of course, it helps that the Giants should have a better offensive line in place for this game. Justin Pugh has been a nice addition, while Andrew Thomas could be back this week. Thomas’ return will help blast open running lanes for Saquon Barkley, who has a favorable matchup against Washington’s 26th-ranked run defense.

WASHINGTON OFFENSE: Sam Howell also has a favorable matchup when just looking at statistical rankings. The Giants are near the bottom of most defensive categories, despite what we saw Sunday night versus Buffalo. This means Howell should have a solid performance, right?

I actually wouldn’t be too sure about that. The Giants blitz at the highest frequency in the NFL, so it’s important to note how the opposing quarterback fares versus the blitz. Howell has not done well in that regard. His completion rate falls nine percent, while his YPA plummets two yards. His touchdown-to-interception ratio drops from 7:4 to 2:2. Howell also tends to take lots of sacks, so none of this is good news.

The only way the Redskins will move the chains in this game is if they establish Brian Robinson. The Giants are 27th versus the rush. However, New York could stack the box and get away with it if the conditions are bad enough.

RECAP: Divisional rivalries can be weird sometimes. That would be the case in this instance, as the Giants have dominated these matchups for the most part over the past decade-and-a-half. They’ve won 23 of the previous 33 meetings.

I expect the Giants to continue to perform well. They seem to be an ascending team. Their blocking was much better versus the Bills, and it might improve even further if Thomas finally returns from injury. Their defense was also much better than expected in the Buffalo game. The Redskins, meanwhile, are coming off a win in Atlanta, but it wasn’t completely deserved because they were outgained, 402-193. This is also a bad matchup for Howell and the blitz-heavy Giants.

Despite this, the Redskins are favored on the road. If you think this is a bad number, you’d be correct; these teams are just two spots apart in EPA rankings, with the Redskins and Giants being 26th and 28th, respectively. Call me crazy, but I don’t think the 26th-best team should be a road favorite versus the 28th-best team.

Depending on the injury report, I may bet several units on the Giants. Thomas is the main component because his return would automatically mean that the blocking would improve. With Thomas and Pugh together, the Giants would at least have one solid side to their offensive line, which they haven’t been able to say this year.

THURSDAY THOUGHTS: No Andrew Thomas or John Michael Schmitz in Wednesday’s practice was disappointing, but it’s still early in the week. The Redskins didn’t have Kendall Fuller practicing either, which is significant the rest of the cornerbacks have been terrible.

SATURDAY NOTES: It’s such a bummer that Andrew Thomas won’t play because I wanted to make a big play on the Giants. As it stands, this will be a three-unit pick. Daniel Jones’ status is still up in the air, but his absence wouldn’t really matter to me.

FINAL THOUGHTS: Evan Neal is out for the Giants, meaning they’re missing three starting offensive linemen and a top backup. Still, I’m on the Giants because the Redskins suck and have no business being favored on the road against anyone. The best line is +3 -110 at BetMGM. You can Get $1,500 in bonus bets from BetMGM by clicking the link. Anyway, there’s no sharp action here.