NFL Picks Against the Spread: Week 7, 2023: Late Games

Christian McCaffrey
NFL Picks (Preseason 2023): 4-7 (-$905)
NFL Picks (Week 1, 2023): 10-6 (+$760)
NFL Picks (Week 2, 2023): 8-7-1 (-$435)
NFL Picks (Week 3, 2023): 12-4 (-$995)
NFL Picks (Week 4, 2023): 6-8-2 (+$440)
NFL Picks (Week 5, 2023): 5-9 (-$2,110)
NFL Picks (Week 6, 2023): 6-8-1 (-$2,230)
2023 NFL Picks: 51-49-4 (-$5,475)

NFL Picks (2022): 154-134-8 (+$9,860)
NFL Picks (2021): 144-137-2 (-$5,365)
NFL Picks (2020): 138-124-7 (+$9,350)
NFL Picks (2019): 148-128-9 (+$1,200)
NFL Picks (2018): 140-134-12 (+$845)
NFL Picks (2017): 137-147-10 (-$4,300)
NFL Picks (2016): 148-127-10 (+$780)
NFL Picks (2015): 133-138-10 (-$3,215)
NFL Picks (2014): 143-133-7 (-$1,885)
NFL Picks (2013): 144-131-8 (+$7,825)
NFL Picks (2012): 130-145-8 (-$7,445)
NFL Picks (2011): 137-133-12 (-$1,335)
NFL Picks (2010): 144-131-8 (+$5,880)
NFL Picks (2009): 151-124-9 (+$4,235)
NFL Picks (2008): 136-125-6 (+$6,105)
NFL Picks (2007): 162-135-10 (+$3,585)
If you don’t quite understand the line, total or anything else, go to my Sports Betting FAQ.

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Vegas betting action updated Oct. 22, 11:30 a.m. ET. Follow @walterfootball for updates.


Go to Week 7 NFL Picks – Early Games






NFL Picks Against the Spread: Week 7 Late Games


Arizona Cardinals (1-5) at Seattle Seahawks (3-2)
Line: Seahawks by 9. Total: 44.5.

Sunday, Oct. 22, 4:05 PM


The Matchup. Edge: Seahawks.

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SEATTLE OFFENSE: If the Seahawks watched the Rams-Cardinals game at all, they’ll know to run the ball heavily. If there’s one thing the Cardinals do well, it’s rush the passer. They were able to get heavy heat on Matthew Stafford last week. Stafford was hit often in the first half, as the Rams scored only six points.

The second half of that affair was completely different. The Rams ran on almost every play following intermission, and Arizona could do nothing to stop it. Kenneth Walker figures to have a monster output for that reason. He would be a good bet to have the most rushing yards among all running backs this Sunday.

Walker’s great running will undoubtedly open up favorable opportunities for Geno Smith. The Seattle passing game figures to be effective here if Smith isn’t constantly under siege, given the issues the Cardinals have in their secondary. There’s a chance Budda Baker will return from injury, however, so he’ll definitely provide a boost.

ARIZONA OFFENSE: Unlike the Seahawks, the Cardinals won’t be able to get anything on the ground. Not only is James Conner out; the Seahawks also boast the No. 1 ground defense in the NFL.

Joshua Dobbs will need to throw on the Seattle secondary to have a chance in this game. We’re not too far removed from seeing Andy Dalton torch the Seahawks, so don’t count out Dobbs having a good game.

It helps that Dobbs is protected well. I also don’t trust the Seahawks’ pass rush despite what we saw in a Monday night affair versus the Giants, so Dobbs will have his opportunities.
,br> RECAP: If you like Seattle, know that you lost value from the advance spread (Seattle -7), and now you don’t win with a single major key number. That’s a big deal, given that favorites of eight see the margin of seven hit 8.79 percent of the time. It’s no three when the spread is 2.5 or 3.5, but it’s still significant, so you still need somewhat of a good reason to bet the -8. Also, consider that Geno Smith is 2-6 against the spread as a favorite of 3.5-plus. These are things going against you if you bet the Seahawks.

Also, weird things tend to happen in this rivalry as well, with Arizona posting six upset victories in Seattle dating back to 2013. These are not just outright wins where the Cardinals have been favored; they are all upsets, as in the Cardinals were underdogs in every single victory in Seattle.

It’s interesting to note that two of these upset victories occurred when the Seahawks were traveling back from playing on the East Coast. There’s a ton of travel involved for the Seahawks in these games, so we might see the Seattle players be lethargic in this contest, especially after seeing this Arizona team get crushed by the Rams in a game that was really 9-6 entering the third quarter.

I like the Cardinals to cover this spread, and I was happy to see the sharps were on them as well. This will be a three- or four-unit bet.

THURSDAY THOUGHTS: The sharp money has come closer to being even, which is disappointing. Despite this, the Wednesday injury report was favorable to the Cardinals. Budda Baker was a limited participant, while D.K. Metcalf was a DNP.

SATURDAY NOTES: This line has dropped to 7.5 in some places. Perhaps that’s because of the injuries, with Budda Baker being limited all week, and D.K. Metcalf being DNP-DNP-limited in his practices.

PLAYER PROP: I like Michael Wilson in this game because he’s been much better versus the zone than man, and Seattle plays lots of zone. The best Wilson number is over 30.5 -115 at BetMGM. I also like Wilson to score the first touchdown, where the best odds are at FanDuel at 24/1. Get $200 in bonus bets from FanDuel by clicking the link.

SUNDAY MORNING NOTES: Sharp action has come in on the Cardinals after that was even all week. There might be a viable +10 out there by kickoff.

FINAL THOUGHTS: D.K. Metcalf has been ruled out, causing this line to drop to +8.5 in most sportsbooks. The best line is +9 -110 at Caesars, but nine is often a dead number. The sharps are on Arizona.





The Motivation. Edge: None.
No edge found.


The Spread. Edge: Seahawks.

WalterFootball.com Calculated Spread: Seahawks -7.
Westgate Advance Point Spread: Seahawks -7.
Computer Model: Seahawks -8.5.






The Vegas. Edge: Cardinals.
Lots of money on the Seahawks.

Percentage of money on Seattle: 77% (164,000 bets)


The Trends. Edge: Cardinals.
  • History: Road team has won 12 of the past 16 meetings, excluding a 2016 tie.
  • Seahawks are 57-44 ATS as home favorites since 2007.
  • Seahawks are 7-15 ATS as a favorite of 6+ since 2017.
  • Geno Smith is 2-6 ATS as a favorite of 3.5+.
  • Opening Line: Seahawks -8.
  • Opening Total: 46.
  • Weather: Slight chance of rain, 57 degrees. Light wind.



  • Week 7 NFL Pick: Seahawks 27, Cardinals 24
    Cardinals +9 (4 Units) – Caesars — Incorrect; -$440
    Under 44.5 (0 Units) — Incorrect; $0
    Player Prop: Michael Wilson over 30.5 receiving yards -115 (1 Unit) – BetMGM — Incorrect; -$115
    Player Prop: Michael Wilson to score first touchdown +2400 (0.2 Units) – FanDuel — Incorrect; -$20
    Seahawks 20, Cardinals 10




    Pittsburgh Steelers (3-2) at Los Angeles Rams (3-3)
    Line: Rams by 3.5. Total: 44.

    Sunday, Oct. 22, 4:05 PM


    The Matchup. Edge: None.

    Video of the Week: Israel or Palestine? Perhaps the biggest losers in this conflict are actors who don’t know which side to support:



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    PITTSBURGH OFFENSE: The Steelers have a dreadful offense, but Mike Tomlin specifically said that major changes were coming following the Houston loss. There wasn’t enough time for him to implement those changes the following week, but perhaps they’ll be done during the bye week. At the very least, Pittsburgh will have a boost in the passing game with Diontae Johnson expected to return soon.

    I would also like to see the Steelers re-shuffle their offensive line, as left tackle Dan Moore has been the worst starting blocker in the NFL. Luckily for Moore, or perhaps his replacement, the Rams have a bottom-10 pressure rate. Aaron Donald is obviously still a beast, but the Rams have no edge rush.

    With Kenny Pickett possessing time in the pocket, he should be able to connect with Johnson, George Pickens, and Pat Freiermuth. He’ll also have Jaylen Warren as a receiving threat out of the backfield. It was nice to see Warren be more involved than Najee Harris toward the end of the Week 5 game.

    LOS ANGELES OFFENSE: Matthew Stafford took a beating last game. The Cardinals hounded him behind his pedestrian offensive line, forcing Sean McVay to make some major adjustments at halftime. The Rams came out of the locker room with a new, run-heavy approach.

    The Rams won’t have as much success on the ground in this matchup. The Steelers are much better versus the run than the Cardinals are. Plus, Kyren Williams and Ronnie Rivers are both sidelined. With Cam Akers gone, the Rams are down their top three running backs from Week 1. It’ll be up to Zach Evans to carry the load, which shouldn’t threaten Pittsburgh’s defense.

    Stafford will have to pass more, which could be treacherous against Pittsburgh’s defense. The Steelers are terrific at generating pressure, so if Stafford thought last week was bad, he’ll be in for a tough time against the Steelers’ stop unit.

    RECAP: As someone who has bet the Steelers to go over their win total and to prevail in the Super Bowl as a long shot, I’m hoping they are as good as their record says they are. Their defense certainly is, ranking ninth in adjusted EPA. Their offense, however, is dreadful, though Diontae Johnson’s possible return will help.

    The Steelers should be able to move the ball somewhat well in this game, given that they’re not battling a top-10 defense like the 49ers, Browns, or Ravens. The Rams are in the middle of the pack in that regard, so with a week off, perhaps Pittsburgh will have something new up its sleeve. Tomlin, after all, promised changes.

    Speaking of Tomlin, he has a great track record of covering as an underdog (55-30 ATS), so I like the Steelers with the four key numbers. The sharps appear to be going the other way, but I think Pittsburgh is the right side.

    THURSDAY THOUGHTS: The sharps continue to pound the Rams, but the Steelers had Diontae Johnson back in a full practice on Wednesday. I get why the sharps are betting the Rams – the Steelers’ wins versus the Browns and Ravens were completely bogus – but with Johnson returning, and Mike Tomlin’s great post-bye coaching, I’ll take the Steelers.

    SATURDAY NOTES: There was some fear that T.J. Watt wouldn’t play in this game, but he’s not listed on the injury report after a full practice on Friday. I was going to switch my pick if Watt happened to be out, but I continue to like the Steelers as underdogs off a bye.

    SUNDAY MORNING NOTES: We’re now getting some +3.5 lines for some reason. The sharps are split on this game.

    FINAL THOUGHTS: Again, there’s no sharp action on this game. The best line is +3.5 -110 at Bovada, followed by +3.5 -112 at DraftKings. I’m still on Pittsburgh for a couple of units.





    The Motivation. Edge: None.
    No edge found.


    The Spread. Edge: Steelers.

    WalterFootball.com Calculated Spread: Rams -1.
    Westgate Advance Point Spread: Rams -3.
    Computer Model: Rams -2.






    The Vegas. Edge: Steelers.
    Lots of money coming in on the Rams.

    Percentage of money on Los Angeles: 78% (169,000 bets)


    The Trends. Edge: Steelers.
  • Mike Tomlin is 55-30 ATS as an underdog.
  • Opening Line: Rams -3.
  • Opening Total: 42.5.
  • Weather: Dome.



  • Week 7 NFL Pick: Steelers 26, Rams 23
    Steelers +3.5 (2 Units) – Bovada — Correct; +$200
    Over 44 (0 Units) — Incorrect; $0
    Steelers 24, Rams 17




    Los Angeles Chargers (2-3) at Kansas City Chiefs (5-1)
    Line: Chiefs by 5.5. Total: 48.5.

    Sunday, Oct. 22, 4:25 PM


    The Matchup. Edge: Chiefs.

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    KANSAS CITY OFFENSE: I’ve heard this opinion so often that I’m beginning to go insane. The prevailing thought among most NFL media people and podcasts is that the Chiefs’ offense isn’t as good as usual this year. Yet, I’m looking at the EPA rankings, and Kansas City ranks fourth in offense, trailing only Miami, Buffalo, and San Francisco. What gives?

    It feels like the Chiefs goofed off last week against the Broncos, trying nonsensical plays at times because they knew they’d prevail. They’ll have to be more focused in this game, which is not a sentiment I thought I’d have a few weeks ago when the Chargers were ranked in the high 20s of defensive EPA. They have since “improved” to 23rd, which isn’t great by any means, but at least they can no longer be called one of the worst defenses in the NFL.

    The key in this matchup is that the Chargers can generate pressure on the quarterback. Khalil Mack has been a monster, while Joey Bosa should be healthier in this game. This will make life difficult for Patrick Mahomes, but the Chargers have enough holes in their linebacking corps and secondary for Mahomes to exploit, so I expect the Chiefs to score a healthy sum in this game.

    SAN ANGELES OFFENSE: Justin Herbert has thrived in matchups against the Chiefs throughout his young career. He nearly knocked off Kansas City on the road last year in Week 2, but got hurt at the end. Herbert then didn’t have a full supporting cast in the rematch, but that was a close game as well.

    Things might be different this time, however, as Herbert has never faced a terrific Kansas City defense. The Chiefs’ stop unit has improved by leaps and bounds since that Week 2 affair last year. Believe it or not, the Chiefs are second in defensive EPA. They rank third in pressure rate, so they’ll be able to harass Herbert frequently, which could force the Chargers into making more mistakes.

    The one negative area for the Chiefs is their run defense, which ranks 25th. However, this is a bit misleading because they’ve missed some linebackers, who are now back in action. Thus, I don’t expect Austin Ekeler to have a dominant game on the ground, or anything.

    RECAP: This is a tough one to call. On one hand, the Chargers tend to keep many of their games close. Since Justin Herbert’s second season, here are the margin of defeats the Chargers have had: 3, 3, 2, 1, 3, 7, 3, 6, 14, 28, 3, 3, 12, 6, 15, 7, 3, 28, 3. Of the 19 losses, 12 have been by six points or fewer. Fourteen have been by 17 points or fewer. The Chargers are seldom blown out because Herbert has the ability to keep games close. And if you’re wondering, three of those close margins have come against Kansas City.

    On the other hand, this might be the best Chiefs team we’ve seen. The Kansas City teams of the past have been explosive offensively, but lackluster on the defensive side of the ball. These current Chiefs are second in offense and fourth in defense. Their inability to win by large margins used to be a thing, but it’s not anymore because Kansas City’s defense is elite.

    I want to be on the Chiefs because of this knowledge, but I have a voice inside my head telling me that Herbert will somehow keep this game close, even if it’s via a back-door cover in garbage time. Thus, I’m going to side with Kansas City, but I won’t bet this game.

    THURSDAY THOUGHTS: It seems like no one is betting the Chiefs, as both the public and sharps are on the Chargers at the moment. If no one has any interest in Kansas City, I’ll be more than happy to place a small wager on them.

    SATURDAY NOTES: There’s still time for things to change, but there’s so much money on the Chargers. Public underdogs are easy fades, so I’ll continue to back the Chiefs.

    SUNDAY MORNING NOTES: This line has jumped up to -6, which is not too much of a surprise. If you can find a -5.5 out there, and you like the Chiefs, make sure you bet it because six is a major key number.

    FINAL THOUGHTS: You can get -6 plus money in some sportsbooks, but six is too important, so I’d rather go with the -5.5 -106 at Bookmaker if I were betting this game.





    The Motivation. Edge: None.
    No edge found.


    The Spread. Edge: Chiefs.

    WalterFootball.com Calculated Spread: Chiefs -8.
    Westgate Advance Point Spread: Chiefs -6.
    Computer Model: Chiefs -7.






    The Vegas. Edge: Chiefs.
    Public backing the underdog.

    Percentage of money on San Angeles: 73% (184,000 bets)


    The Trends. Edge: TBA.
  • History: Chiefs have won 15 of the last 18 meetings.
  • Justin Herbert is 5-0-1 ATS as an underdog of 6+. ???
  • Patrick Mahomes is 76-19 SU, 51-43 ATS (39-31 ATS when not favored by double digits.)
  • Patrick Mahomes is 5-0 ATS in the initial divisional matchup of the year as long as he’s not favored by -7 or more.
  • Opening Line: Chiefs -6.
  • Opening Total: 52.
  • Weather: Slight chance of rain, 68 degrees. Mild wind, 12 mph.



  • Week 7 NFL Pick: Chiefs 27, Chargers 20
    Chiefs -5.5 (0 Units) — Correct; $0
    Under 48.5 (0 Units) — Correct; $0
    Chiefs 31, Chargers 17




    Green Bay Packers (2-3) at Denver Broncos (1-5)
    Line: Broncos by 1. Total: 44.5.

    Sunday, Oct. 22, 4:25 PM


    The Matchup. Edge: None.

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    GREEN BAY OFFENSE: I’d like to say that “No Cookie” Jordan Love will perform on a high level against Denver’s miserable defense, but I can’t declare such a thing after what transpired a couple of Monday nights ago. Love had a great matchup against the Raiders in that game, but self-destructed with three interceptions and poor red zone offense.

    One thing that was shocking about the matchup was how much pressure Love saw in the pocket. The Raiders had a bottom-five pressure rate entering the game, yet Maxx Crosby destroyed Love with relentless pressure. The Broncos are slightly worse than the Raiders at getting after the quarterback, ranking 31st instead of 30th, but Green Bay’s offensive line should theoretically be able to keep Love protected. Then again, that was also the case in the matchup versus Las Vegas.

    Meanwhile, there’s more hope for the Packers with their running game. While the Raiders aren’t very good versus the rush, ranking 24th against it, Denver is much worse (31st). With Aaron Jones due back after a week off, Green Bay should have more success on the ground than it had versus the Raiders.

    DENVER OFFENSE: The Packers should be healthier on this side of the ball as well. Jaire Alexander was playing in his first game back from injury versus the Raiders, so he figures to be even better after the bye. De’Vondre Campbell, who has been sidelined since Week 3, should also be able to return. Green Bay’s defense has not looked the same without him.

    The Packers will create some problems for Russell Wilson in the pocket. Denver’s pass protection has mostly been poor this season, and Green Bay thrives at generating heat on opposing quarterbacks. Wilson, as a result, will struggle until he falls behind. There’s a prevailing opinion that Wilson has been better in 2023 than he was with Nathaniel Hackett, and while this is true because he must be by default, it also must be pointed out that Wilson has posted most of his positive stats in garbage time of many games.

    Denver will at least be able to run the ball, at least while they’re not behind multiple scores. The Packers have historically been brutal versus the rush, and Javonte Williams looked like his former self on Thursday night against the Chiefs. Williams can’t handle a full workload yet, but Jaleel McLaughlin has looked good in relief.

    RECAP: Here we go again. There’s a ton of sharp money coming in on the Broncos. This is the fourth time Denver is heavily backed by the pros this year. The Broncos are 0-3 against the spread in those games.

    I won’t be siding with the sharps. I have interest in the Packers, assuming they get some injured players back like Jones and Campbell. Green Bay missed those players in their loss to the Raiders prior to the bye. Having them on the field against a similarly ranked team like the Broncos would perhaps put them over the top, assuming that Love doesn’t sabotage another potential victory.

    THURSDAY THOUGHTS: The sharps are hitting the Broncos hard. Why? I have no idea. De’Vondre Campbell was DNP in Wednesday’s practice, which is a bummer, but at least Aaron Jones was limited.

    SATURDAY NOTES: I can see why the sharps are betting Denver. The Packers have a million players on their injury report. Just look at it. Almost all of their guys are questionable, except for D’Vondre Campbell, who is doubtful. The Broncos suddenly look better, but I’m going to stick with the Packers.

    SUNDAY MORNING NOTES: Still no interest here, and it’ll take a surprise inactive for me to get on a side.

    FINAL THOUGHTS: Again, the sharps are on the Broncos after being right about the Patriots. Green Bay is now +1 at Bookmaker. I still have no interest in either side with Jaire Alexander out for the Packers.





    The Motivation. Edge: None.
    No edge found.


    The Spread. Edge: .

    WalterFootball.com Calculated Spread: Pick.
    Westgate Advance Point Spread: Packers -1.5.
    Computer Model: Packers -1.5.






    The Vegas. Edge: Broncos.
    Slight lean on the Packers.

    Percentage of money on Green Bay: 60% (115,000 bets)


    The Trends. Edge: Broncos.
  • Matt LaFleur is 13-5 ATS after a loss.
  • Broncos are 32-17 ATS as home underdogs since 1991.
  • Russell Wilson is 31-15 ATS as an underdog.
  • Opening Line: Packers -1.
  • Opening Total: 44.5.
  • Weather: Slight chance of rain, 78 degrees. Light wind.



  • Week 7 NFL Pick: Packers 23, Broncos 20
    Packers +1 (0 Units) — Incorrect; $0
    Under 44.5 (0 Units) — Correct; $0
    Broncos 19, Packers 17




    Miami Dolphins (5-1) at Philadelphia Eagles (5-1)
    Line: Eagles by 3. Total: 52.

    Sunday, Oct. 22, 8:20 PM


    The Matchup. Edge: Dolphins.

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    PHILADELPHIA OFFENSE: The Jets deserve lots of credit for shutting down Philadelphia’s offense last week. They’ve embarrassed all the elite quarterbacks they’ve faced this year, but last week’s result was extra special because both top cornerbacks were sidelined.

    However, some of what occurred in that game was a byproduct of Lane Johnson’s injury. Johnson is the best right tackle in the NFL, and in the past, his absences have adversely impacted the Eagles’ ability to be consistent offensively. Johnson suffered an ankle sprain, so it’s unclear if he’ll be available for this game. If not, Miami’s pass rush could give the Eagles problems. Jalen Hurts is used to elite pass protection, but he displayed he wasn’t as effective without Johnson, as evidenced by his horrible interception that gifted the win for the Jets.

    What the Eagles do on this side of the ball clearly hinges on Johnson’s availability. If he’s available at 100 percent, the Eagles will be able to move the ball both on the ground and through the air against a porous Dolphins defense. Conversely, Johnson being out will put a cap on whatever the Eagles try to do on this side of the ball.

    MIAMI OFFENSE: There are no injuries concerning the Dolphins. It seems very apparent that they won’t have any issues moving the chains in this contest.

    That may not have been the case last year when the Eagles had an elite defense. That is not the case anymore. In fact, Philadelphia’s defense can’t even be considered average. The Eagles are 22nd in defensive EPA. They tend to struggle to cover, which almost seems like a death sentence against the Dolphins and their prolific receivers.

    One thing the Eagles do well on this side of the ball is stop the run, which is a stark contrast from last year’s defense. Raheem Mostert won’t have a dominant game against his former team, but the Dolphins will make it up through Tua Tagovailoa’s passing.

    RECAP: I’ve been calling the Eagles overrated for several weeks. It paid off for the second time in three games, as the Eagles lost outright to the Jets. They beat the Rams, but before that, they failed to cover against the Redskins as large home favorites.

    I’ll be fading the Eagles once again. Their defense is miserable, as it seems impossible for them to stop the Dolphins and their prolific passing attack. Meanwhile, Lane Johnson may not be available due to an ankle sprain. The Eagles have a dubious track record without Johnson. Hurts would see much more pressure without him.

    I made this line Miami -2.5. The EPA number is the same. Yet, the Eagles are favored by a couple of points instead. I wish we were getting the +3, but I’ll still bet the Dolphins for a couple of units.

    THURSDAY THOUGHTS: Lane Johnson, DeVonta Smith and Reed Blankenship all missed Wednesday’s practice, which would be significant if it weren’t Wednesday. Xavien Howard and Connor Williams didn’t practice for Miami. I’ve heard so many people I respect back the Eagles, but all of them seem to compare it to the Buffalo-Miami game. I think this is a mistake. The Bills are an elite team, or at least they were back in Week 4 before their injuries. The Eagles are not an elite team. In fact, I don’t know if they belong in the top 10. Their defense is bad. They can’t cover anyone, which they’ll need to do versus Miami.

    SATURDAY NOTES: The Eagles will have Lane Johnson and Jalen Carter, but their secondary will take a hit without Reed Blankenship. This is a nice edge for the Dolphins, though Miami could miss Xavien Howard, who was DNP-limited-limited in practice this week. His absence would be huge against Philadelphia’s receivers.

    PLAYER PROP: OddsShopper loves Julio Jones +750 anytime touchdown on DraftKings and FanDuel. This number is as low as +275 at Caesars and +394 at Pinnacle. Jones is a huge target and could see some looks in the red zone. You can get $200 in bonus bets from FanDuel by clicking the link.

    SUNDAY MORNING NOTES: The sharps have come in on the Eagles, pushing this line to -3. It sucks that they’re on the other side, but I still like Miami.

    FINAL THOUGHTS: Again, the sharps have bet the Eagles, but it’s not very lopsided. The Dolphins won’t have Xavien Howard or Connor Williams, so I can see why. However, I still think the Dolphins are the right side. The best line is +3 -108 at Bookmaker.





    The Motivation. Edge: None.
    No edge found.


    The Spread. Edge: Dolphins.

    WalterFootball.com Calculated Spread: Dolphins -2.5.
    Westgate Advance Point Spread: Eagles -2.5.
    Computer Model: Dolphins -2.5.






    The Vegas. Edge: None.
    Equal action.

    Percentage of money on Philadelphia: 54% (426,000 bets)


    The Trends. Edge: Dolphins.
  • Dolphins are 28-16 ATS as a road underdog of less than 5 since 2008.
  • Opening Line: Eagles -2.5.
  • Opening Total: 52.5.
  • Weather: Partly cloudy, 52 degrees. HEAVY WINDS, 19 mph.



  • Week 7 NFL Pick: Dolphins 31, Eagles 24
    Dolphins +3 -108 (2 Units) – Bookmaker — Incorrect; -$215
    Over 52 (0 Units) — Incorrect; $0
    Player Prop: Julio Jones anytime touchdown +750 (0.2 Units) – FanDuel — Incorrect; -$20
    Eagles 31, Dolphins 17




    San Francisco 49ers (5-1) at Minnesota Vikings (2-4)
    Line: 49ers by 6.5. Total: 44.

    Monday, Oct. 23, 8:15 PM


    The Matchup. Edge: None.

    This week on ESPN, we’re going to have awful announcers calling the shots instead the great preseason homers like Kevin Reilly, Ron Wolfley and Don Tollefson, inept ESPN guys Emmitt, Herman Edwards, and aloof people like Jay Cutler. Here’s what it would sound like if some of these dudes (and some special guests) were calling this game:

    Reilly: Welcome to the city of Minnesota, where tonight, the San Francisco Gays take on the Minnesota Twins. Guys, I only care about this game because everyone says that the San Francisco Gays will challenge my Philadelphia Eagles to reach the Super Bowl. Little did they know that my Philadelphia Eagles are the best team of all time and incapable of losing. And my Philadelphia Eagles are even more unstoppable now that Mother said I can talk to girls and date a superstar singer who is even prettier and more talented than Taylor Swift.

    Emmitt: Thanks, Shadow. I am very confusion by what you saided. I do not comprehempsion how a girl who do song can make your team imstoppable. If I had knowned this, I would have goned on a date with girl who do song like Janice Jaskins, Mandonna, or Shania Twinkie.

    Reilly: Emmitt, you really blew it. Maybe you would have done something in the NFL if you were as cool as me or Travis Kelce and dated a super popular pop singer. I don’t have a girlfriend yet but I will as soon as I meet with the latest singer from this location. The producers tell me that the most famous singer from Minnesota is someone named … Lizzo? I assume this is short for Elizabeth. Excuse me, mister fat valet, you must be Elizabeth’s fat valet. When will Elizabeth be joining me soon so that I can force her to be my girlfriend?

    Lizzo: ME LIZZO. ME HUNGRY.

    Tollefson: Buhahaha, Reilly got set up with a porker! Buhahahaha! Hey Reilly, how is this beast going to cook and clean for you naked if she’s too busy eating all the food in your fridge!? Buhahahahahahahaha!

    Reilly: Tolly, first of all, the only woman who cooks and clean naked for me is Mother. Second, this clearly is a mistake. Maybe this fat valet ate Elizabeth. Senator John Festerman, you’re a man with power. Do something to help me!

    John Fetterman: Blue skies, french fries! Pig parker down the turnpike. The owls are not what they seem. But the fox and the hen have revealed themselves on the moon lake. Kneel by the mountain, and the tornado will blow you away. Go into the mansion, you vampire hunter!

    Reilly: Wow, I can see why people voted for you, John Festerman! Our country is better in your hands! Mr. Fat Valet, I demand that Elizabeth come to me right away. She must learn about how much of a catch I am. If she’s not available, please tell her how many pictures I have of Nick Foles in a bikini. I have at least 716 of them!

    Lizzo: ARE PICTURES OF NICK FOLES IN BIKINI EDIBLE BECAUSE ME LIKE TO EAT PICTURES.

    Reilly: What!? You can’t eat my Nick Foles bikini pictures! Do you know how much they’re worth!?

    Adam Schefter: Kevin, I just heard from sources saying that your Nick Foles bikini picture collection is worth only 15 cents because no one wants it except for some creepy guy online. Oh wait, that’s your account as well, Kevin. Now, if you’ll excuse me, I need to rub some Covid vaccine into a dog’s anus and smear my face all over it.

    Reilly: President Biden, can you please tell Adam Schefter that he’s an idiot for thinking my Nick Foles bikini pictures are worth way more than 15 cents? And can you use some executive order to have Elizabeth come to me and force her to be my girlfriend?

    Joe Biden: Now look here, you cockroach-jumping blood moon. You need to be president or vice president to have executive orders to force someone to be your girlfriend or to pay your son tons of money to be on an energy board when he’s nothing but a crack addict. But here’s the deal: You approach a young woman who is maybe 25 years old and say, “Excuse me, honey, if you don’t let me sniff your daughter or much younger sister, then you ain’t black.” Then you take the daughter or much younger sister and invite her back to your hotel room and heh, heh, heh, we had a fun time in the shower, didn’t we Ashley, heh, heh, heh? You know, I never thought I would ever see the day that- uh- the thing I learned osrnexnaylrescent.

    Donald Trump: Excuse me, excuse me, Sleepy Joe is wrong, wrong, excuse me, excuse me, Sleepy Joe just said that the young lady isn’t black, which is totally fake news and a total disgrace, and only Sleepy Joe would say something like that because Sleepy Joe is a total liar and a total disaster, believe me, I know who is black and who is not black because no one can determine race better than I can, remember Pocahontas, great name that I made up for her, the greatest nickname anyone has ever heard, she was such a total fake that I am more Native American than her, and I’m not even Native American, frankly, but all the Native American chiefs all agree that if I were Native American, I’d be the best Native American, and everyone agrees, except Pocahontas because, let’s face it, she’s got a screw loose or two, or maybe 12, but that’s nothing compared to Sleepy Joe, who couldn’t determine anyone’s race if anything depended on it, including his own because he’s a total loser and a total disaster.

    Wolfley: SPEAKING OF SCREW LOOSE, MY BROTHER-IN-THIRD-LAW HAS THREE SCREWS LOOSE WHERE HIS BEER BOTTLE FOR A BELLY BUTTON IS ATTACHED TO HIS PLUMBUS. DO YOU HAVE ANY GUIDANCE FOR HOW TO FIX THIS?

    Reilly: Shut up, idiots! It’s time for Elizabeth to reveal herself. New Daddy, please tell this fat valet to fetch my girlfriend now!

    Jay Cutler: Yo, Lizzo, my loser step-son wants you to kiss him.

    Reilly: Kiss!? Oh no! I thought that would happen on our 58th date! I’m not ready, oh my god, oh my god, oh my god, oh my god, oh my god!

    Lizzo: LIZZO NO KISS UNTIL 58TH DATE EITHER. UNLESS BOYFRIEND BUY HER CHOCOLATE CAKE.

    Jay Cutler: Come on, Lizzo, this is the first thing I’ve cared about in decades, and you’re letting me down here.

    Reilly: Wait, the fat valet is Elizabeth? Why would the producers set me up with a fat valet!? No offense, Lizzo, but someone as handsome and impressive as me can only date famous singers!

    Charles Davis: Kevin, sounds like you’re discussing positions in prominent houses, Kevin. You already mentioned valet, Kevin. How about butler, Kevin? Let’s chat about the cook, Kevin. What do you think about the maid, Kevin? Let me know your thoughts on the head footman, Kevin? What about second footman, Kevin? Don’t forget about the third footman, Kevin. Can I get your opinion on scullery maid, Kevin? Care to share about the gardener, Kevin? And don’t forget the 65-year-old loser who still lives with his mom and thinks he’s going to get a singer girlfriend, Kevin.

    Reilly: F**K YOU, CHARLES DAVIS, I AM GOING TO GET A SINGER GIRL SOON ENOUGH AND NOT ONE WHO DOUBLES AS A FAT VALET, AND ONCE I DO, YOU’LL CRY YOURSELF TO SLEEP EVERY NIGHT AND I’LL BE THERE TO DRINK THE TEARS! We’ll be back after this!

    SAN FRANCISCO OFFENSE: The 49ers had a top-five offense entering Week 6, but the unit struggled in Cleveland, producing 17 points. Of course, it didn’t help that Christian McCaffrey, Deebo Samuel and Trent Williams all got hurt. Williams eventually returned to the game, but McCaffrey and Samuel did not. Brock Purdy suffered his first loss as a result.

    Purdy will have an easier matchup this week, as Minnesota’s 17th-ranked defense pales in comparison to Cleveland’s No. 1 unit. Still, not having McCaffrey or Samuel to deal with would be a huge boost for a Minnesota defense that seems to be improving each week, thanks to Brian Flores’ tremendous coaching.

    I still have concerns about the Vikings’ cornerbacks, however. Purdy should have the time he needs to connect with Brandon Aiyuk and George Kittle. Thus, I would expect more than a 17-point output, even if McCaffrey and Samuel are sidelined.

    MINNESOTA OFFENSE: We just saw Kirk Cousins play without Stefon Diggs, Adam Thielen, or Justin Jefferson for the first time, and it wasn’t pretty. The Bears had some defensive players return from injury, but the Vikings struggled to score on one of the worst defensive units in the NFL.

    The 49ers obviously have a much better defense than Chicago. They possess a tremendous pass rush, which could prove to be detrimental for Cousins, who often wilts under pressure. It would help Cousins if he had his elite receiver available, but Jefferson is on injured reserve. Cousins still has Jordan Addison, T.J. Hockenson and K.J. Osborn at his disposal, but these are players San Francisco can limit.

    It won’t help Cousins’ cause that he won’t have much from the running game. The 49ers thrive versus the run, and it’s not like Alexander Mattison is having a good year anyway.

    RECAP: It’s difficult to handicap this game at the moment because we don’t know if McCaffrey or Samuel will be available. The 49ers would be fine without one of them, but missing both would limit the offense. The Vikings have been better defensively lately, thanks to Flores’ great coaching, so they could certainly limit a skeleton crew San Francisco offense.

    The Vikings are underrated overall. Everyone assumes they suck now because they have a 2-4 record, but they’ve been close to winning a couple of games they’ve lost. They could easily be 4-2 right now, and if they were, this line would not be +7. Then again, they wouldn’t even be close to 4-2 if they were missing Jefferson the entire year.

    It’s close, but I’m going to side with the 49ers to rebound from their loss. However, if San Francisco is missing too many players, I may switch to the Vikings.

    THURSDAY THOUGHTS: These teams haven’t practiced yet, so we won’t have a significant update until Saturday.

    SATURDAY NOTES: Christian McCaffrey is questionable after being DNP-DNP-limited in practice, while Trent Williams and Deebo Samuel are both out. Despite this, I’ll still be on the 49ers, as Minnesota’s offense looked dreadful last week without Justin Jefferson despite battling the sorry Bears defense.

    PLAYER PROPS: I often post first touchdown bets, but here are two last touchdown scorers I like: Brandon Powell and K.J. Osborn. Why? We’re getting great value, according to the awesome OddsShopper tool:



    BetMGM has some amazing deals on these, and they make sense, as Kirk Cousins could throw one final touchdown in garbage time to these receivers. For more great prop opportunities, you can sign up with OddsShopper to find some great EV wagers.

    SUNDAY MORNING NOTES: For most of the week, there was more action on the 49ers than any other team. That has now changed with the Bills now holding that distinction.

    MONDAY AFTERNOON NOTES: It sounds like Christian McCaffrey will play, which has pushed the line up to -7. I’m not sure if McCaffrey will handle his full workload. I don’t have much interest in this game at the moment, but maybe something will change my mind.

    FINAL THOUGHTS: Christian McCaffrey is active, which seems like a mistake because the 49ers can win without him. I don’t want to bet on San Francisco missing Trent Williams and Deebo Samuel, but the Vikings have the most significant injury with Justin Jefferson being out. The best line is -6.5 -110 at Bovada, followed by -6.5 -112 at Bookmaker. There’s no sharp action on this game.





    The Motivation. Edge: None.
    No edge found.


    The Spread. Edge: None.

    WalterFootball.com Calculated Spread: 49ers -7.5.
    Westgate Advance Point Spread: 49ers -7.
    Computer Model: 49ers -7.






    The Vegas. Edge: None.
    Tons of early action on the 49ers. Now, it’s even.

    Percentage of money on San Francisco: 57% (616,000 bets)


    The Trends. Edge: 49ers.
  • Brock Purdy is 12-1 SU, 10-3 ATS.
  • Kyle Shanahan is 9-4 ATS after losing as a favorite.
  • Vikings are 41-33 ATS at home since 2014 (10-18 ATS since 2020).
  • Opening Line: 49ers -7.
  • Opening Total: 45.
  • Weather: Dome.



  • Week 7 NFL Pick: 49ers 24, Vikings 13
    49ers -6.5 (0 Units) — Incorrect; $0
    Under 44 (0 Units) — Correct; $0
    Player Prop: Brandon Powell to score last touchdown +2500 (0.2 Units) – BetMGM — Incorrect; -$20
    Player Prop: K.J. Osborn to score last touchdown +1800 (0.2 Units) – BetMGM — Incorrect; -$20
    Vikings 22, 49ers 17






    week 7 NFL Picks – Early Games
    Steelers at Rams, Cardinals at Seahawks, Packers at Broncos, Chargers at Chiefs, Dolphins at Eagles, 49ers at Vikings



    LOADING COMMENTS…

    Prop/Teaser/Parlay Picks
    A list of some of my favorite team/player prop picks this week
    (Offense & defensive ROY picks to be counted whenever winners are announced.) Picks carried over on a week-to-week basis will be in black.


    Prop/teaser/parlay picks posted in Week 7 NFL Picks – Early Games



    NFL Power Rankings - Feb. 22


    2024 NFL Mock Draft - Feb. 21


    Fantasy Football Rankings - Feb. 19


    NFL Picks - Feb. 12




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    My Team-by-Team ATS Record
    This section shows how well I do when picking each team this year. The purpose is to see how well I read each team. Pushes are not displayed. Winning/losing streak in parentheses.

    Cowboys: 8-9
    Bears: 11-4
    Bucs: 6-11
    49ers: 10-7
    Eagles: 7-7
    Lions: 9-8
    Falcons: 8-9
    Cardinals: 8-9
    Giants: 7-9
    Packers: 5-12
    Panthers: 8-9
    Rams: 8-9
    Redskins: 14-3
    Vikings: 6-9
    Saints: 10-7
    Seahawks: 7-9
    Bills: 9-7
    Bengals: 12-5
    Colts: 7-10
    Broncos: 9-6
    Dolphins: 6-11
    Browns: 11-5
    Jaguars: 13-4
    Chargers: 8-9
    Jets: 8-9
    Ravens: 11-6
    Texans: 5-12
    Chiefs: 5-10
    Patriots: 7-9
    Steelers: 11-6
    Titans: 9-8
    Raiders: 6-9
    Divisional: 50-35 (2011-22: 558-526)
    2x Game Edge: 36-24 (2011-22: 363-361)
    2x Motivation Edge: 32-36 (2011-22: 478-405)
    2x Spread Edge: 41-40 (2011-22: 197-168)
    2x Vegas Edge: 41-38 (2011-22: 407-406)
    2x Trend Edge: 15-13 (2011-22: 306-279)
    Double Edge: 17-13 (2011-22: 190-172)
    Triple Edge: 1-1 (2011-22: 32-36)

    2003 Preseason: 3 | 4 | 5
    2003 Season: 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 | 16 | 17 | 18 | 20 | XXXVIII
    2004 Preseason: 1 | 2 | 3 | 4
    2004 Season: 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 | 16 | 17 | 18 | 19 | 20 | XXXIX
    2005 Preseason: 1 | 2 | 3 | 4
    2005 Season: 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 | 16 | 17 | 18 | 19 | 20 | XL
    2006 Preseason: 1 | 2 | 3 | 4
    2006 Season: 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 | 16 | 17 | 18 | 19 | 20 | XLI
    2007 Preseason: 1 | 2 | 3 | 4
    2007 Season: 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 | 16 | 17 | 18 | 19 | 20 | XLII |
    2008 Preseason: 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 |
    2008 Season: 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 | 16 | 17 | 18 | 19 | 20 | XLIII |
    2009 Season: 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 | 16 | 17 | 18 | 19 | 20 | XLIV |
    2010 Preseason: 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 |
    2010 Season: 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 | 16 | 17 | 18 | 19 | 20 | XLV |
    2011 Preseason: 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 |
    2011 Season: 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 | 16 | 17 | 18 | 19 | 20 | XLVI |
    2012 Preseason: 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 |
    2012 Season:
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    2013 Preseason: 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 |
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