NFL Picks Against the Spread: Week 5, 2023

Chicago Bears (0-4) at Washington Redskins (2-2)
Line: Redskins by 6. Total: 45.
Thursday, Oct. 5, 8:15 PM


The Matchup. Edge: None.

Week 4 Analysis: In Week 3, we went 12-4, but finished in the red. In Week 4, we were 6-8-2, but finished in the black. Go figure! I’ll continue to break down all the 3+ unit picks each week:

Jaguars, 3 units (win): There were heavily read publications out there who dropped the Jaguars from eight to 18 in their power rankings, just because of the Texans game. Sometimes, it’s just easy.

Bills, 4 units (win): Miami’s 70-point output took the Bills from -3.5 on the advance line to -2.5 to the real open. Getting the key number of three made this a big wager.

Browns, 3 units (loss): I love betting on good teams playing their backup quarterback because the players will give 110 percent. I don’t know where that 110 percent was for the Browns, because we didn’t see it on Sunday. Maybe they knew Dorian Thompson-Robinson was that bad from practice.

Redskins, 3 units (win): I’m glad I figured this one out because I was initially on the Eagles to start the week.

Titans, 5 units (win): I loved the Titans, but I did not expect a lopsided 27-3 affair. I bet people will overreact to the Bengals now.

Raiders, 3 units (push): On one hand, we were lucky to get the push. On the other hand, there were so many bogus calls going against the Raiders in this game. The fact that Jakobi Meyers was flagged for offensive pass interference and Joshua Palmer wasn’t on effectively the same action was absurd.

Patriots, 5 units (loss): I’m sorry about this one. I loved the Patriots to start the week, but didn’t adjust to new information I received leading up to the weekend, such as the Cowboys’ improved health on the offensive line. There’s no way this should have been a five-unit pick.

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CHICAGO OFFENSE: It can’t have been too much of a surprise that Justin Fields just had his best game of the season. Fields had struggled through three weeks, but had battled three defenses that were all ranked in the top 15 of EPA. The Broncos were 32nd.

This matchup must be tougher by default, but not really by much. This may surprise people who think the Redskins have a good defense, but they don’t. Washington is just 23rd in defensive EPA, which makes sense considering that they allowed 30-plus points to the Broncos in Week 2. They have a strong pass rush, but their secondary (aside from Kendall Fuller) and linebacking corps have struggled this year.

The Redskins don’t have the linebackers to contain Fields, provided that he decides to run. Given that the team is 0-4, and he has received plenty of criticism, Fields may decide to take matters into his own hands and beat the Redskins with his legs.

WASHINGTON OFFENSE: Speaking of terrible defenses, the Bears certainly belong in that pantheon. They’re 31st in defensive EPA, so only the Broncos have a worse defense than them.

The Redskins have a limited offense because of Sam Howell and a pedestrian offensive line, but they shouldn’t have issues moving the chains against Chicago. The Bears don’t have any sort of pass rush to speak of, so Washington’s poor blocking won’t be a liability in this game. Howell will have all the time he needs to torch the Bears’ poor secondary.

Chicago also happens to be poor against the run, which cannot surprise anyone. The Redskins will be able to establish Brian Robinson Jr. to sustain drives and win the time-of-possession battle.

RECAP: For those who have never played in the SuperContest, you have to submit five picks against the spread each week. Once you submit, you can’t change your selections. Thus, the Thursday night game is tricky. If you submit your card, and it includes the Thursday game, you can’t change your other four picks, which sucks if there’s any important news on Friday or Saturday. I haven’t submitted a Thursday game in years as a result.

The reason I’m telling you this here is because I’m considering submitting the Bears on my card if the line is +7. It was +7 on Monday afternoon, but has since fallen to +6.5. The advance line was Washington -4.5, and I made it -4. The EPA line is also -4. Where did they get -7 from? Is it because the Redskins played closely with the Eagles? If so, I should remind you that the Redskins were blown out by the Bills the week before, and they also nearly lost to the Cardinals and Broncos, two teams with a combined record of 1-7.

And yes, I know. The Bears suck as well. However, they’re a fluky pick-six away from keeping two of their four games to within three points. They’ve been blown out twice, by the Packers and Chiefs, but both of those teams are in the top 11 of net EPA. The Redskins are 24th!

I don’t think it’s a mistake that the Redskins are deemed to be a bottom-10 team. Their offense is 19th, while their defense is 23rd. They have no business relinquishing every single key number.

I love the Bears, obviously. My only hesitation is that weird things can happen on Thursday night with bad teams, but both of these teams can be described as such. This will be a three-unit bet at +6.5 and a four-unit wager at +7.

Our Week 5 NFL Picks will be posted all day Tuesday. Follow @walterfootball for updates.

LOCKED IN: Wow, the sharps have hammered this pretty hard. This line dropped from +7 to +5.5 in about 24 hours. Luckily, there are some +6s still out there. You can get +6 -117 at Bookmaker, but the best number is +6 -112 at DraftKings. I’ll lock that in now before all the +6s are gone.

THURSDAY THOUGHTS: I was wrong to lock this in at +6 -112 because there are a bunch of +6 -110s available. I got caught up in the FOMO, I guess, but it’s better to be safe than sorry, plus +6 -112 isn’t too bad. The Bears will be without Jaylon Johnson and Eddie Jackson once again, but it sounds like Teven Jenkins has a good chance to play for the first time all year.

PLAYER PROP: I’m going to bet some first touchdown scorer props this week. I’ll try to find one I like in some games, and we can use the OddsShopper tool to get the best value. For instance, Jahan Dotson is 13/1 on FanDuel, but 11/1 in many other places. I like Dotson because he leads the Redskins in red zone targets. You can sign up for OddsShopper here!

FINAL THOUGHTS: Again, I didn’t need to lock in this pick even though this line has fallen to +5.5 at some sportsbooks. You can get +6 -110 at DraftKings, Caesars, and BetMGM. The sharps were on Chicago when this line got to +7, but they haven’t bet it at +6. I still love Chicago with this spread being way too high and the Redskins being exhausted off an overtime game.

Jacksonville Jaguars (2-2) at Buffalo Bills (3-1)
Line: Bills by 5. Total: 48.5.
Sunday, Oct. 8, 9:30 AM


The Matchup. Edge: Bills.

My overrated-underrated feature was posted in this spot the past couple of years. I thought it would be better if there was less clutter on this page, so I set up a new NFL Overrated and Underrated Teams page that will be updated every Monday. I have overrated and underrated teams listed there, and some may shock you!

BUFFALO OFFENSE: Many assumed that the Dolphins had the top offense in the NFL entering Week 4. The Bills had something to say about that, destroying Miami by the score of 48-20. The Bills scored on nearly possession, punting only twice. It was an incredible performance that vaulted them to the top of the NFL Power Rankings.

The Bills will face a tougher challenge on this side of the ball this week. The Jaguars have an explosive pass rush ranked in the top 10 of pressure rate. The Dolphins don’t get after the quarterback as well, so Josh Allen will have to use his legs more often in this contest. Jacksonville also stops the run incredibly well, so James Cook will have trouble finding rushing lanes.

The Jaguars also have some quality players in the secondary, which allowed them to restrict the Chiefs to just 17 points in Week 2. However, the Chiefs don’t have the talented receivers like Buffalo possesses. You could say this is the first time the Jaguars’ defensive backfield will be tested all year because none of their previous four opponents have the quarterback-receiver combination like the Bills do.

JACKSONVILLE OFFENSE: Despite what I wrote about the Bills’ receivers and the Jaguars’ untested secondary, the biggest mismatch in this game will be on this side of the ball. Buffalo has a devastating pass rush, which should cause problems for the Jaguars and their pedestrian offensive line.

I called Jacksonville’s secondary untested, and that also applies to the blocking unit for the most part. Aside from the Week 2 game against the Chiefs, the Jaguars’ blocking unit hasn’t battled a ferocious front like Buffalo possesses. Trevor Lawrence is going to find that he won’t have much time in the pocket, so he won’t be able to take advantage of Buffalo’s missing top cornerback, Tre’Davious White, who suffered an Achilles injury last week.

Travis Etienne won’t be able to do much either. The Bills are also stout versus the run, rebounding this way since their poor Week 1 result. As you can tell, the Jaguars are going to have a tough time moving the ball.

RECAP: This is a dynamic we’ve never seen before. Teams playing in London have always done so on equal footing, given that both have flown over from America leading up to the game. This, however, is the first time that one of the teams will have been in England the prior week. The Jaguars, who obviously played against the Falcons in England last week, have that advantage.

Obviously, it’s impossible to know what to expect. We can only speculate, and I have to think that this situation will depend on the caliber of opponent. If the Jaguars were battling a mediocre or worse team, remaining overseas would give them a colossal advantage. The Bills, however, are obviously not a mediocre or worse team. They’re arguably the best team in the NFL. They have the talent to overcome Jacksonville’s edge.

With that in mind, I’m going to side with the Bills. I like their pass rush against Jacksonville’s questionable offensive line. Buffalo’s offense also has an edge over the Jaguar secondary. I don’t have any interest in betting this game, however, as the spread seems like it’s right on the money, and it’s impossible to know if the Jaguars will have an immense advantage from already being in England.

THURSDAY THOUGHTS: There’s a bit of sharp money on the Jaguars, and I can only assume the thinking is that Jacksonville will have a big advantage from remaining in London. I personally have no idea how that will impact this game.

SATURDAY NOTES: Something I forgot earlier in the week is that Cam Robinson is returning from suspension. That’s a huge boon to the offensive line, which has a very difficult matchup. If Robinson can help Trevor Lawrence stay upright, Lawrence could shred a secondary missing Tre’Davious White and perhaps Christian Benford. I can definitely see the case for the Jaguars, but I’m sticking with Buffalo.

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PLAYER PROP: We won with Gabriel Davis scoring the first touchdown last week, so why not go back to the well? Davis was 16/1 last week. He’s 13/1 in this game, but the Bills have a better chance of scoring first this game. FanDuel is giving us a good price with other books pricing this at 11/1 or even 10/1. Sign up for FanDuel and get $200 in bonus bets by clicking the link!

FINAL THOUGHTS: Let’s hope the NFL puts an end to these horrible 9:30 a.m. games after this year. Anyway, I still have no interest in betting this game. If you like the Bills, the best line is -5 -108 at Bookmaker. There’s no significant sharp action on this game.

Houston Texans (2-2) at Atlanta Falcons (2-2)
Line: Falcons by 2.5. Total: 41.5.
Sunday, Oct. 8, 1:00 PM


The Matchup. Edge: Falcons.

VEGAS UPDATE: I’ll be posting how the Vegas sportsbooks have done the previous week in this spot. The highest-bet sides were 34-42 in 2020 and 48-37 in 2021. The highest bet sides were 32-35-1 last year, and they are now 8-7 ATS.

Here are the teams getting the most bets last week:

Rams -1

Eagles -9

Jaguars -3

Chargers -6

The public did well this past week aside from the Eagles game. Casuals are now over .500.

Here are the teams getting the most bets this week:

Dolphins -9

Lions -9

Bills -5.5

Chiefs -5.5

Texans +1

Nothing out of the ordinary, aside from the Texans being a public dog. Two weeks ago, no one would believe that the Texans would be a public dog!

ATLANTA OFFENSE: The Falcons love to run the ball more than any other team in the NFL. This has been a problem in the past two games. They’ve battled the Lions and Jaguars, two teams that rank in the top 10 of run defense. Atlanta has been limited to just 13 total points in those games as a result.

While the Lions and Jaguars are in the top 10 of run defense, the Texans are in the bottom 10. Houston was demolished on the ground in Week 2 when Anthony Richardson and Zack Moss steamrolled them. The Texans haven’t been tested in that regard since. The Jaguars were a no-show in Week 3, while the Steelers cannot run the ball whatsoever.

The only negative thing I can say about Atlanta’s offense in this matchup is Desmond Ridder. He’s been the worst starting quarterback in the NFL, but he’ll be put in favorable passing situations for the first time since Week 2. I’d still start Taylor Heinicke instead, but Ridder should be fine this week.

HOUSTON OFFENSE: C.J. Stroud has been on fire to begin his career, which has been shocking. This surprise has nothing to do with Stroud, whom the Carolina coaches preferred over Bryce Young before being overruled by management. This has everything to do with the state of the offensive line, which has missed multiple starters in every game, including four in the Pittsburgh game.

This has to catch up with the Texans eventually, and the Falcons might be the team that takes advantage. After ranking dead last in pressure rate in 2021 and 2022, the Falcons are now in the top 10 because of the many upgrades they made this offseason. They’ll be able to put plenty of heat on Stroud, who could be forced into some mistakes as a result.

I wouldn’t expect Dameon Pierce to help set up Stroud in favorable situations either. The Falcons currently own the NFL’s top ground defense, and it’s not like the run blocking has been there for Pierce anyway.

RECAP: I can’t say I’m surprised that nearly three-quarters of the betting action is on the Texans. They’ve blown out their previous two opponents, the Jaguars and the Steelers, and everyone seems to be in love with Stroud. I’ve listened to some NFL betting shows where people were shocked that the Falcons are favored.

I actually think the Falcons should be favored by more. I love this matchup for them. They’ve struggled offensively the past two weeks because they’ve battled a pair of teams with strong run defenses. The Texans don’t possess one; in fact, their inability to stop the rush is a huge weakness. Just ask Derrick Henry. Or, more recently, look at what Zack Moss did to them in Week 2.

No team wants to run the ball more than the Falcons, and for the first time since Week 2, they’ll be playing against a team that won’t be able to stop them. With this matchup edge, you’d ordinarily expect to see a poor line, but that’s not the case. The advance spread on this game was Atlanta -3.5. Yet, because of Houston’s win over a Pittsburgh team that was ravaged by injury, this line dropped to -1.5 before moving back to -2. This is way too much of an overreaction, so I love the Falcons.

THURSDAY THOUGHTS: I listen to various football podcasts when I’m walking the dogs or driving, and I can’t tell you how many people I’ve heard be shocked that the Texans weren’t favored in this game. That makes me like Atlanta even more.

SATURDAY NOTES: The sharps were on the Falcons earlier in the week, but not so much lately. Why? I think it has to do with Houston’s injury report. The Texans will likely get their starting tackles back from injury. Denzel Perryman will play as well. His specialty is stopping the run, so that makes Atlanta’s matchup a bit worse. I still think it’s a great spot and line for the Falcons, but I’m going to downgrade to four units.

PLAYER PROP: I’m betting Desmond Ridder under 10.5 rushing yards -101 at Caesars. Ridder has rushed for six or fewer yards in three of four games this year, and he may not have to do much with Bijan Robinson and Tyler Allgeier doing all the work.

FINAL THOUGHTS: There’s been some sharp money coming in on the Falcons with the Texans having unexpected injuries in the secondary. The best line is -2.5 -108 at FanDuel. Sign up at FanDuel to get $200 in bonus bets.

Carolina Panthers (0-4) at Detroit Lions (3-1)
Line: Lions by 9. Total: 45.
Sunday, Oct. 8, 1:00 PM


The Matchup. Edge: Lions.

HATE MAIL: We’re going to post hate mail here this year. Here’s some from Twitter:



What are the odds that this person understood what I meant? Like +50000?

OK, let’s find a way to reply without attacking the grammar:



Unfortunately, this cm person didn’t reply, likely due to a lack of functioning brain cells that were needed to formulate a response.

Cm did reply to this, however:



I didn’t mention the Seahawks’ injuries; just the injuries of their opponents. So, I replied with my favorite gif, reserved for those without functioning brain cells:



DETROIT OFFENSE: When the Panthers aren’t missing all of their linebackers like they were in the Seahawks game, they can actually stop the pass pretty well. What they haven’t been able to do in recent years, however, is contain the run. They’re dead last year in rush defense. Yes, even worse than the Broncos in that regard!

I don’t need to tell you that this doesn’t bode well in this matchup. The Lions love to run the ball. They spent the No. 12 overall pick on a running back, and they’ve ridden David Montgomery heavily when he’s been healthy. The Panthers won’t be able to stop this.

Jared Goff will feed off his team’s strong ground attack with easy passing opportunities. The Panthers can often limit aerial attacks because of their potent pass rush, but the Lions’ elite offensive line will nullify that.

CAROLINA OFFENSE: It’s still way too early to call Bryce Young a bust, but he’s been the worst of the three primary rookie quarterbacks thus far. To be fair, his offensive line can’t block, and his receivers don’t have any explosion, but Young looks like a thrift store version of Kyler Murray thus far.

It’s hard to imagine Young performing well in this matchup. The Lions are able to generate a quality pass rush with Aidan Hutchinson, which presents a problem for Young, given the poor blocking in front of him. “No Cookie” Jordan Love just took five sacks, and Young will deal with something similar.

The Panther coaches would love to establish Miles Sanders to keep the pressure off Young, but that seems unlikely. The Lions have a top-10 ground defense that recently limited Bijan Robinson. They’ll have no issues containing Sanders.

RECAP: The Lions were -7.5 on the advance line. They’re now favored by -9. We’ve lost 1.5 points in spread value, and yet, it doesn’t seem like enough. There is such a huge disparity between these teams that it seems like a double-digit line would be appropriate.

It’s difficult to imagine the Panthers being competitive with the Lions. They won’t be able to block against Hutchinson and company, while their injury-ravaged defense won’t be able to provide much resistance against the Lions. Detroit loves to run the ball, while Carolina cannot stop the run whatsoever.

The only danger here is for the Panthers getting a back-door cover if the Lions are missing some personnel or are playing unfocused. Otherwise, this seems like a blowout.

THURSDAY THOUGHTS: There’s some sharp money coming in on the Panthers. Perhaps it’s because Amon-Ra St. Brown missed Wednesday’s practice with an abdomen injury. I’ll have no interest in betting the Lions if St. Brown is out.

SATURDAY NOTES: We can now see why there’s sharp money on the Panthers. Amon-Ra St. Brown is doubtful, which is obviously big news. However, the Lions could get their entire offensive line back from injury, which will basically ensure that they’ll be able to pound the ball on Carolina’s woeful run defense.

FINAL THOUGHTS: Amon-Ra St. Brown and Jahmyr Gibbs are out for the Lions, but Jameson Williams and Emmanuel Moseley are back from injury. I still like the Lions, but won’t be betting this game. If you want to do so, the best line is -9 -110 at Caesars. There’s no sharp action on this game.

Tennessee Titans (2-2) at Indianapolis Colts (2-2)
Line: Titans by 3. Total: 43.
Sunday, Oct. 8, 1:00 PM


The Matchup. Edge: Colts.

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TENNESSEE OFFENSE: There are two things you need to do before breaking down any matchup involving the Titans. The first is determine whether or not Derrick Henry will be able to run effectively. Henry steamrolled through the Bengals last week en route to a 27-3 victory. This was not a surprise because Cincinnati has a bottom-10 ground defense.

What about the Colts? They’re 12th in this regard, so they have the horses to at least contain Henry. If the Titans had a stronger offensive line, I’d be more bearish on this perspective, but Tennessee’s blocking is rather putrid.

That very same offensive line will have trouble keeping the Indianapolis pass rushers out of the backfield. The Colts are capable of getting after the quarterback, and we’ve seen how Tannehill can play this year when he can’t lean on Henry.

INDIANAPOLIS OFFENSE: The second requirement needed for the analysis of Tennessee games is an observation of the opposing passing attack because the Titans have a woeful secondary. Their poor defensive backfield wasn’t tested last week against the Bengals because Joe Burrow’s troublesome calf prevents him from throwing downfield.

While the Colts certainly have the edge in run defense, I’m not exactly sure if they can take full advantage of Tennessee’s poor secondary. It certainly is possible because Anthony Richardson has looked great at times, but he’s also a rookie who is bound to have wild swings in performance.

The Colts will need Richardson to perform on a high level in this game because they certainly won’t move the chains on the ground. Zack Moss has impressed lately, but the Titans rank third versus the rush.

RECAP: I don’t have much of an opinion on this game. These teams seem evenly matched, and the spread is what it should be. Both teams will be focused because this is a heated rivalry.

I’m going to side with the Colts. According to the metrics, they’re 21st in offense and 11th in defense, while the Titans are 18th in offense and 19th in defense. Tennessee needs Henry to run well, yet the Colts have a top-10 ground defense. I get the desire to back Mike Vrabel because he typically excels as an underdog. However, a one-point underdog isn’t much of an underdog. Not that this means anything, but if you were wondering, Vrabel is 0-2 against the spread in his career as an underdog of exactly one point.

THURSDAY THOUGHTS: The Colts opened as favorites, but now the Titans are favored by a point. I imagine it’s because the Colts had six starters miss Wednesday’s practice.

SATURDAY NOTES: The Titans have been bet up to -2.5 because of the Colts’ injuries. Except, the Colts don’t have that many injuries. There were six starters who missed Wednesday’s practice, but only three will be out: Bernhard Raimann, Shaq Leonard, and Kwity Paye. Raimann being out hurts, but not so much with Leonard and Paye. This may surprise those who recognize those names, but Paye has been mediocre this year, while Leonard has been terrible. I like the value we’re getting with the Colts now. I’m going to bet a couple of units on them, and I’m going to try to find a viable +3.

FINAL THOUGHTS: I said on the YouTube show that I would bet the Colts +3 at anything less than -127. The vig on the +3 is -126 at Bookmaker, so good enough. There’s no sharp money here.

New York Giants (1-3) at Miami Dolphins (3-1)
Line: Dolphins by 13. Total: 50.
Sunday, Oct. 8, 1:00 PM


The Matchup. Edge: Dolphins.

If you missed it, I have an NFL Betting Props page. I’ll be adding to it as the season progresses!

Also, Confidence Pool Picks will return. They’ll be posted by Wednesday morning each week!

NEW YORK OFFENSE: Is there much analysis needed here? I thought the Giants would play better against the Seahawks than they did in prior weeks because they battled some tough defenses like the Cowboys and 49ers. Instead, Seattle sacked Daniel Jones 11 times in one of the most embarrassing offensive performances you’ll ever see.

There’s a chance the Giants will perform better this week, and not just by default. This, however, would require Andrew Thomas and Saquon Barkley to be healthy. It’s clear that the Giants need these two players to function properly. No Thomas means that the blocking is dreadful, which the Dolphins will take advantage of with their middling pass rush. No Barkley means that the Giants don’t have any explosive players on this side of the ball.

The Giants’ outlook will obviously hinge on Thomas and Barkley’s availability. Perhaps they’ll return to action and take advantage of the Dolphins’ 26th-ranked defense. Then again, the Giants have a short week, and there’s no guarantee that either player will be 100 percent upon their return.

MIAMI OFFENSE: It’s hard to say if the Giants’ offense or defense is in worse shape. The offense looked worse on Monday night, but the defense has had so many bad lapses this year, particularly when it comes to missed tackles.

I can’t even imagine how many missed tackles the Giants will have against Tyreek Hill, Jaylen Waddle and De’Von Achane. It’s going to be ridiculous. Tua Tagovailoa will deliver the ball to his play-makers with ease. The Giants will blitz often, as they are wont to do, but this won’t work very well because Tagovailoa is excellent against the blitz.

RECAP: How can anyone possibly bet the Giants after their Monday night performance? I like backing teams coming off blowout losses because they’re likely to fight hard to rebound, and they also tend to come with some spread value. The Giants, however, are a complete mess, and there’s no guarantee they’ll even have much of a chance to bounce back, given that they’re on a short week, so they’ll have less time than usual to fix some things.

Given the short week of preparation, I can’t back the Giants unless Barkley and Thomas return from injury, and even then, it’s a tough sell. I don’t see how a team that has such a bad defense like the Giants can contend with the Dolphins.

Before you think I’m betting the Dolphins, I must point out that Miami has a poor defense as well. The Dolphins are 26th in defensive EPA, so they could allow the Giants to get a back-door cover if Barkley and Thomas are on the field.

THURSDAY THOUGHTS: Reports indicate that Andrew Thomas won’t play. Saquon Barkley was at least limited in Wednesday’s practice. I can make the case for the Giants covering, but there’s no way I want to bet them.

SATURDAY NOTES: It’s still unclear if Saquon Barkley will play, but Andrew Thomas, as expected is out. Despite this, I like the Giants, and I’m switching my pick. I expect Miami to be flat as a huge favorite off its big battle against the Bills. The Dolphins had that game circled on their schedule, so a deflating loss will make it difficult to cover a high number. Also, the 70-20 game reminds me of that Monday night game the Eagles had versus the Redskins with Michael Vick going off back in 2010. Everyone loved the Eagles because of that game, but they barely covered the spread after that because they were so inflated. I think we might see something similar here. I don’t know if I can summon the courage to bet more than a unit on the Giants, but I do like them.

FINAL THOUGHTS: Saquon Barkley is out, causing this line to rise to +13. And it’s official – this is our first 90/10 game of the year, where 90 percent of the bets are on the Dolphins. The Giants are basically an auto pick at that point, and I don’t think Miami will show up. This is a one unit bet at +13 -110 at Caesars.

New Orleans Saints (2-2) at New England Patriots (1-3)
Line: Patriots by 1.5. Total: 40.
Sunday, Oct. 8, 1:00 PM


The Matchup. Edge: Patriots.

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NEW ENGLAND OFFENSE: Mac Jones had been performing well this season with an actual offensive coordinator. This all changed when he imploded last week. He gave the Cowboys’ defense two touchdowns on a strip-sack and a pick-six, and he threw another interception after that. Dallas’ defense suffocated him, prompting a third-quarter benching.

Jones should be able to rebound. The Saints have a good defense, but it’s not on the same level as Dallas’ No. 2 stop unit. The Saints are 10th in defensive EPA and 14th in adjusted EPA defense, and I’m more inclined to believe the latter ranking, considering last week’s result and the overall strength of opponent New Orleans has battled thus far. Baker Mayfield threw all over the Saints even though Mike Evans got hurt in the second quarter. And prior to taking on the Buccaneers, the Saints went through the Tennessee, Carolina, and Aaron Jones- and Christian Watson-less Green Bay offenses. That certainly makes New Orleans’ defensive rankings look like a farce.

Then again, it’s not like the Patriots are a juggernaut on this side of the ball. I would still expect the Patriots to have moderate success moving the chains, despite what happened last week. They’ll certainly have a much better game plan prepared after that embarrassing defeat.

NEW ORLEANS OFFENSE: It’s difficult to be more optimistic about the Saints’ offense, given what we saw last week. Derek Carr could do nothing but throw checkdowns because of his injured shoulder. It’s puzzling as to why he was playing in the first place when it seemed so likely that he would sit out the game.

If Carr played last week, I can only assume that he’ll be on the field again. This won’t end well against Bill Belichick’s defense. The Saints can’t block very well, while the Patriots have a fierce pass rush ranked seventh in pressure rate. This unit will miss Matthew Judon, but New England has other talented front-seven players who can get after the quarterback.

An injured Carr facing pressure will negate the only advantage the Saints could possibly have on this side of the ball. The Patriots’ secondary has been ravaged by injury, especially after Christian Gonzalez got hurt last week, but Carr, in his current state, won’t be able to take advantage of that.

RECAP: The formula for handicapping the Patriots is simple. Back Belichick when he’s going against poor quarterbacks, and fade him when he’s battling top-10 signal-callers. The reasoning is that Belichick can have a great advantage when matched up against a quarterback who doesn’t know what he’s doing, but Belichick’s edge disappears against a great quarterback.

I’d say the Saints’ signal-callers are not very good. Carr, who was benched in favor of Jarrett Stidham last year, is not even 100 percent because of his shoulder injury. The other option is Jameis Winston, who is known for his turnovers more than anything else. Belichick should be able to limit New Orleans’ offense.

With that in mind, the Patriots look very appealing this week. It’s a great bounce-back spot for them following Belichick’s worst loss ever. We’re also getting great line value. I made this line New England -3.5, so if I’m right, this spread is on the wrong side of three, which is obviously very significant.

THURSDAY THOUGHTS: Christian Gonzalez missed Wednesday’s practice, which would be a big deal if Derek Carr weren’t injured. I doubt Carr can take advantage of this absence.

SATURDAY NOTES: Christian Gonzalez and Matt Judon are both out. However, the bigger story is Derek Carr being limited every day in practice. He’ll probably play, but he’s still not 100 percent, so he won’t be able to expose New England’s depleted secondary.

PLAYER PROP: We saw the Saints struggle to defend the Buccaneers’ passing game last week. I’m going to bet the Patriots’ No. 1 receiver to score the first touchdown. Kendrick Bourne is 13/1 to do so at Caesars and 14/1 at BetMGM, but he’s 16/1 at FanDuel and DraftKings. You can get some great FanDuel & DraftKings promos by clicking the link.

FINAL THOUGHTS: One interesting thing about the inactives list is that Jonathan Jones is back for the Patriots, so their cornerback situation, while not ideal, isn’t as dire as some people thought. This has not caused the sharps to bet New England, but they’re not on the Saints either. I still love the Patriots, and the best line is -1.5 -108 at FanDuel. Sign up for FanDuel and get $200 in bonus bets by clicking the link!

Baltimore Ravens (3-1) at Pittsburgh Steelers (2-2)
Line: Ravens by 5. Total: 38.5.
Sunday, Oct. 8, 1:00 PM


The Matchup. Edge: None.

If you’ve followed this site for a while, you might remember that I like to respond to my spam mails. It all started numerous years ago, when a man named Jon Wire from the “United Bank of Africoan” promised me an ATM card of some sort, so I responded as a man named Mister Compassion Chuck Norris, who was raised by wolves. The following season, I received e-mails from Richard Held and Loon Bruce, who told me I won a Facebook Award, which comes with a “lump sum pay out of (750,000.00 GBP).” Pretending to be Matthew Millen Kim, I sent out my application and fake money.

I’ve been messing around with spammers ever since, pretending to be Harvey Weinstein, Joe Biden, Ramsay Bolton and Walter White. I have plenty of Spam Mails this year, so check them out if you want to see me screw with spammers. I’ll have new ones every week this year!

PITTSBURGH OFFENSE: Kenny Pickett suffered an injury against the Texans, so there’s a chance Mitchell Trubisky will start this game. Pickett will practice in some capacity this week, but he may sit for a game.

I imagine those betting on the Steelers may prefer Pickett over Trubisky, but what if I told you that Trubisky was the better option in this matchup? The Ravens have a bottom-10 pressure rate, so they have to blitz frequently to put any pressure on the quarterback. Believe it or not, but Trubisky has been much better versus the blitz in his career when compared to not being blitzed. In 2022, Trubisky was 31-of-47 for 393 yards, one touchdown and no interceptions when blitzed. Back in 2020, when Trubisky saw more action, he was 66-of-91 for 667 yards, nine touchdowns and only two picks.

The Steelers’ offense should function well with Trubisky, as strange as it sounds. They’ll need some positive play from their quarterbacks, given that they won’t be able to run the ball. The Ravens are fifth versus the rush, but it’s not like the Steelers have a functional ground attack anyway.

BALTIMORE OFFENSE: Lamar Jackson has had some rough moments this year when dealing with ball security, but he looked like his 2019 MVP self against the Browns last week. Cleveland had no answer for Jackson, as he beat the Browns both aerially and on the ground.

It’ll be interesting to see if Jackson can keep up this level of play. There’s a chance the Ravens will once again be without their left tackle, Ronnie Stanley, which should allow the dynamic Pittsburgh edge rushers to pressure him frequently. If Jackson reverts back to being sloppy with the football, Pittsburgh will secure some turnovers.

The Steelers will need some big plays on defense because their secondary faces a challenge with Zay Flowers gaining experience each week. The Ravens haven’t possessed this sort of fire power from their receivers in years, but Flowers’ presence changes that. Flowers should have the edge against the Steeler cornerbacks, who have not played well this year.

RECAP: No matter how good or bad one of these teams are, the Steelers and Ravens will always play tough battles. The margin of victory in this rivalry has been: 3, 2, 3, 1, 5, 14, 18, 3 in the past four years. There were a couple of outliers, but for the most part, the Pittsburgh-Baltimore contests came down to the wire.

Given that fact, the Steelers automatically look appealing at more than a field goal. Sure, that requires backing Trubisky, but siding with backup quarterbacks on good teams has often been a winning proposition. Also, you shouldn’t be too scared of Trubisky because he’s good against the blitz. Plus, it’s not like Pickett was playing well. Allow me to show you this graphic:



Look at how bad Pickett was this year. The only starting quarterbacks who have been worse are Desmond Ridder and the injured Joe Burrow. How much worse can Trubisky be, really? If anything, Trubisky might actually be an upgrade because Pickett has regressed in his second season.

The Steelers look like a bet of three units or more to me. I think we’re getting good line value – I made this spread Pittsburgh +3 – and I love betting into overreactions like we had in the wake of the Steelers getting thrashed by the Texans. Mike Tomlin is 13-2 against the spread after a loss of 20-plus in his coaching career, so I’m confident he’ll have a great game plan ready for his biggest rival.

THURSDAY THOUGHTS: I’ve heard plenty of people on various football shows call the Steelers one of the worst teams in the NFL, citing what happened last week as evidence of that. My recommendation would be to wipe the Houston game from your memory because the Steelers were coming off a trip back from the West Coast following a short work week and had their flight diverted on their way home. They then looked past the Texans because they had this game on the horizon.

SATURDAY NOTES: I’m rather disappointed that Kenny Pickett is not on the injury report, especially after all the work I had done finding Mitchell Trubisky’s numbers against the blitz. The Steelers have some other worrying injuries, like Alex Highsmith going full, DNP, and then limited. I’ll stick with three units on the Steelers.

SATURDAY NOTES II: I’m not betting the Steelers. I’m too concerned about Kenny Pickett’s knee injury. I wish the Steelers were starting Mitchell Trubisky. I don’t want to bet on an injured quarterback.

FINAL THOUGHTS: I’d like the Steelers if they had a healthy quarterback, but I don’t trust Kenny Pickett. As it stands, I’m not betting this game. The sharps have a slight lean on the Steelers, but nothing significant. The best line is +5 at Bookmaker.