NFL Picks Against the Spread: Week 5, 2023: Late Games

Jordan Love
NFL Picks (Preseason 2023): 4-7 (-$905)
NFL Picks (Week 1, 2023): 10-6 (+$760)
NFL Picks (Week 2, 2023): 8-7-1 (-$435)
NFL Picks (Week 3, 2023): 12-4 (-$995)
NFL Picks (Week 4, 2023): 6-8-2 (+$440)
2023 NFL Picks: 40-32-3 (-$1,135)

2022 NFL Picks: 154-134-8 (+$9,860)
2021 NFL Picks: 153-141-2 (+$210)
NFL Picks (2020): 138-124-7 (+$9,350)
NFL Picks (2019): 148-128-9 (+$1,200)
NFL Picks (2018): 140-134-12 (+$845)
NFL Picks (2017): 137-147-10 (-$4,300)
NFL Picks (2016): 148-127-10 (+$780)
NFL Picks (2015): 133-138-10 (-$3,215)
NFL Picks (2014): 143-133-7 (-$1,885)
NFL Picks (2013): 144-131-8 (+$7,825)
NFL Picks (2012): 130-145-8 (-$7,445)
NFL Picks (2011): 137-133-12 (-$1,335)
NFL Picks (2010): 144-131-8 (+$5,880)
NFL Picks (2009): 151-124-9 (+$4,235)
NFL Picks (2008): 136-125-6 (+$6,105)
NFL Picks (2007): 162-135-10 (+$3,585)
If you don’t quite understand the line, total or anything else, go to my Sports Betting FAQ.

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Vegas betting action updated Oct. 8, 10:30 a.m. ET. Follow @walterfootball for updates.


Go to Week 5 NFL Picks – Early Games






NFL Picks Against the Spread: Week 5 Late Games


Cincinnati Bengals (1-3) at Arizona Cardinals (1-3)
Line: Bengals by 3.5. Total: 44.5.

Sunday, Oct. 8, 4:05 PM


The Matchup. Edge: None.

Video of the Week: If you haven’t played the new Zelda game, you can create your own inventions, like this:



I have to say that roasting the Koroks was a bit demented.

CINCINNATI OFFENSE: The Bengals are a broken team, and it’s easy to determine why. Joe Burrow simply can’t throw downfield because of his balky calf. He couldn’t even take advantage of a Tennessee secondary that had been torched by everyone this season.

If Burrow were 100 percent, or close to it, he’d have a great advantage in this matchup. The Cardinals are 26th against the pass, as their cornerback play has been atrocious. Marco Wilson has been Arizona’s best cornerback, and he’s stinks. Burrow, however, won’t be able to get much downfield once again.

Despite this, there’s hope for the Bengals’ offense. The Cardinals are actually worse against the run than the pass, ranking 29th against it. Joe Mixon trampled the Rams en route to a victory in Week 3, and we could see something similar out of him this week.

ARIZONA OFFENSE: The play of Joshua Dobbs has been surprising. Despite not knowing everyone’s name heading into his first game, Dobbs has composed himself extremely well. He has completed at least 67.7 percent of his passes in every game he has played. He has scored five total touchdowns, and he hasn’t thrown a single interception yet.

Dobbs will be tested against a Cincinnati pass rush that was able to hound Matthew Stafford in Week 3. However, Arizona’s offensive line isn’t bad. Dobbs has taken four sacks in four games, so he should have enough time to throw into a lackluster Cincinnati secondary.

The Bengals, like the Cardinals, are worse against the run than the pass. Cincinnati ranks 26th versus the rush, so James Conner figures to pick up where Derrick Henry left off last week.

RECAP: The line value we’re getting on this game is incredible. The advance spread was Cincinnati -8. The opening line was then -4.5, and it has since dropped to -3. When, aside from a major injury, do we see a spread adjust like this? I don’t think I’ve ever seen a spread fall five points through all three key numbers.

While Cincinnati -3 looks extremely appealing compared to the -8 we saw a week ago, the question is if the movement is warranted, and based on Burrow’s inability to throw downfield, you could certainly say so. However, the Bengals are still playing against the Cardinals, a team that has very little talent. Sure, Arizona has exceeded expectations, but it still lost to the Redskins and Giants, two teams ranked in the bottom 10 of EPA. They beat the Cowboys, but Dallas was missing numerous starters and didn’t seem particularly interested in playing in that game.

I’m going to be on the Bengals at this reduced price. Remember, they beat the Rams two weeks ago, and I would definitely say that the Rams are better than the Cardinals. I don’t think I can convince myself to bet on Cincinnati, given Burrow’s injury, but I think we’re getting a nice bargin with the -3.

THURSDAY THOUGHTS: Again, I have no idea what to make of this game. If we bet the Bengals, we’re either getting the best line value ever because the advance spread was Cincinnati -8, or we’re getting the worst line value ever because the EPA numbers say Arizona should be -5.

SATURDAY NOTES: We have two potential major absences for the Bengals, and I’m not even talking about Tee Higgins. Trey Hendrickson and Chidobe Awuzie were both downgraded during the week with back injuries. This is a huge deal, as they are the team’s top edge rusher and best cornerback, respectively. Cincinnati will not be the same without Hendrickson in particular. If both are out, I’ll be betting the Cardinals, who should be -5 according to EPA.

PLAYER PROP: I like the Cardinals to win the game, so someone like Michael Wilson to score first is appealing. Wilson is a big target, so he makes for a nice wager. Wilson is 11/1 to score first at Caesars and 12/1 at BetMGM, but he’s 16/1 at FanDuel. You can get some great FanDuel promos by clicking the link, including $200 in free bets!

SUNDAY MORNING NOTES: I’ll be looking to bet a +3.5. The best I see right now is +3.5 -125 at Bookmaker.

FINAL THOUGHTS: We have a number better than +3.5 -125. The best line is +3.5 -118 at Bookmaker. The sharps have bet the Cardinals heavily above +3, so I like getting a number above +3.





The Motivation. Edge: None.
No edge found.


The Spread. Edge: WTF???.

WalterFootball.com Calculated Spread: Pick.
Westgate Advance Point Spread: Bengals -8.
Computer Model: Cardinals -5.






The Vegas. Edge: None.
Equal action.

Percentage of money on Cincinnati: 51% (149,000 bets)


The Trends. Edge: Bengals.
  • Zac Taylor is 8-2 ATS in his second-consecutive road game.
  • Joe Burrow is 32-16 ATS when not favored by more than a touchdown (3-5 ATS otherwise).
  • Joe Burrow is 13-5 ATS after a loss.
  • Opening Line: Bengals -4.5.
  • Opening Total: 42.5.
  • Weather: Dome.



  • Week 5 NFL Pick: Cardinals 20, Bengals 17
    Cardinals +3.5 -118 (4 Units) – Bookmaker — Incorrect; -$470
    Under 44.5 (0 Units) — Incorrect; $0
    Player Prop: Michael Wilson to Score the First Touchdown +1600 (0.5 Units) – FanDuel — Incorrect; -$50
    Bengals 34, Cardinals 20




    Philadelphia Eagles (4-0) at Los Angeles Rams (2-2)
    Line: Eagles by 4. Total: 47.

    Sunday, Oct. 8, 4:05 PM


    The Matchup. Edge: None.

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    LOS ANGELES OFFENSE: I liked the Colts early last week in their game against the Rams, but I moved off of it because Los Angeles’ offensive line wasn’t as depleted as I initially expected. This is obviously huge in this game because the Rams will need all hands on deck to block the Eagles. Philadelphia has the No. 4 pressure in the rate in the NFL, so keeping Matthew Stafford safe will be crucial.

    If Stafford has some time to throw, he’ll be able to take advantage of the Eagles’ secondary. Darius Slay and James Bradberry were terrific last year, but they have not played up to their potential this year. In fact, you could say that they’ve struggled, which has been the catalyst for Philadelphia ranking 19th against the pass despite three of their games being against Mac Jones, Baker Mayfield, and Sam Howell.

    While the Rams will have success aerially, they won’t get much on the ground. Kyren Williams has performed well this year, but the Eagles are excellent versus the rush.

    PHILADELPHIA OFFENSE: Like Stafford, Jalen Hurts has a big edge in this game. The Rams have a below-average pressure rate and an identically ranked pass defense. Hurts obviously has great fire power and protection, so he could post a 30-point total like he did versus the Redskins last week.

    The Eagles can also have D’Andre Swift dominate against the Rams. Los Angeles is below average when it comes to defending the rush, so Swift has a terrific matchup that he’ll be able to exploit.

    All of this seems great. On paper, the Eagles should score on almost every possession. However, something isn’t quite clicking for them. It’s likely their new coordinators. If so, there’s a chance Philadelphia will improve as the season progresses.

    RECAP: A year ago, we identified the Vikings, Giants, and Seahawks are fraudulent teams that we wanted to bet against most weeks. Now that four weeks are through, we should have enough data to find the next batch of overrated teams. I believe the Eagles qualify as such.

    Philadelphia ranks 10th in offense and 18th in defense. The Eagles have a ton of talent, but something isn’t adding up. As mentioned, part of the problem could be the two new coordinators. Also, the Eagles’ veteran cornerbacks are not playing nearly as well as they did a year ago. Philadelphia has been much weaker against the pass as a result.

    This could change as the year progresses, but the Eagles, given how they’re currently playing, don’t deserve to be 4.5-point road favorites against the Rams, who are tied with them for 10th in net EPA. You could say the Rams are underrated, given that they crushed Seattle, held a 23-0 lead in Indianapolis, and went toe to toe with the 49ers. Stafford should have success beating the Eagles’ underachieving secondary, so I like the Rams to cover this spread and perhaps even win outright.

    THURSDAY THOUGHTS: I loved the Rams, at least until I saw this tweet from Emmitt’s old girlfriend, Dianna Marie Russini:

    Matthew Stafford will be back at walk thru/practices this week, however the team is expected to take it light knowing he’s dealing with a hip injury, per league source.

    Stafford suffered a hip injury in the third quarter against the Colts and didn’t score any points after that until overtime. It’s worth noting that Stafford practiced fully on Wednesday, but I think it’s best to be cautious and slice this unit count in half.

    SATURDAY NOTES: A couple of things: One bullish for each team. For the Rams, it’s that Matthew Stafford practiced fully all week. Now, this may not mean much because the Bengals have been listing Joe Burrow as full all year, but it’s still better than seeing a bunch of limiteds or DNPs. For the Eagles, it’s that the Rams won’t have Joe Noteboom, while left tackle Alaric Jackson was DNP-DNP-limited in practice this week. Some Rams Web site said that Jackson is expected to play, but if he doesn’t, the Rams may have severe issues blocking the Eagles without two offensive linemen.

    SUNDAY MORNING NOTES: We’re still waiting on the Rams news regarding Alaric Jackson and Matthew Stafford. I’m not sure we’ll get anything about Stafford, unfortunately.

    FINAL THOUGHTS: The good news is that Alaric Jackson is active. The bad news is that we have no news on Matthew Stafford, but that’s not a surprise. The sharps bet on the Eagles late in the week. The best line is Rams +4 -110 at FanDuel. Sign up for FanDuel and get $200 in bonus bets by clicking the link!





    The Motivation. Edge: None.
    No edge found.


    The Spread. Edge: Rams.

    WalterFootball.com Calculated Spread: Rams -1.
    Westgate Advance Point Spread: Eagles -6.
    Computer Model: Rams -1.






    The Vegas. Edge: None.
    Equal action.

    Percentage of money on Philadelphia: 52% (157,000 bets)


    The Trends. Edge: None.
  • Opening Line: Eagles -4.5.
  • Opening Total: 47.
  • Weather: Dome.



  • Week 5 NFL Pick: Rams 27, Eagles 24
    Rams +4 (2 Units) – FanDuel — Incorrect; -$220
    Over 47 (0 Units) — Incorrect; $0
    Eagles 23, Rams 14




    New York Jets (1-3) at Denver Broncos (1-3)
    Line: Broncos by 2. Total: 40.5.

    Sunday, Oct. 8, 4:25 PM


    The Matchup. Edge: Jets.

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    DENVER OFFENSE: The Broncos looked like they would suffer an all-time embarrassing defeat last week to the Bears, but they recovered and fought back after being down multiple touchdowns. Russell Wilson was great to close out the game.

    Wilson will face a much greater challenge this week. In fact, you could say that this is Wilson’s toughest test of the year. Here are the EPA defensive ranks of teams Wilson has played against thus far: 29th (Raiders), 23rd (Redskins), 26th (Dolphins), and 31st (Bears). Every single defense he has battled this has been in the bottom 10!

    The Jets are 12th in defensive EPA. They just frustrated Patrick Mahomes into a multi-interception game. If they can do that to Mahomes, they can certainly bother Wilson, who won’t be protected very well behind his offensive line. I wouldn’t expect Denver to get much on the ground either.

    NEW YORK OFFENSE: I think everyone would say that Russell Wilson has outplayed Zach Wilson this year, but it’s remarkable how different their schedules have been. I told you the cupcakes that Russell Wilson has gone against. Here are the EPA defensive ranks of teams Zach Wilson has battled: 4th (Bills), 2nd (Cowboys), 11th (Patriots), and 5th (Chiefs). Whereas Russell Wilson has battled nothing but bottom-10 defenses, Zach Wilson has taken on nothing but top-11 defenses!

    I fully expect Zach Wilson to perform much better this week. He showed flashes of it against the Chiefs, so perhaps that will carry over into this game. The Broncos generate the least amount of pressure in the NFL, so Zach Wilson will have all the time he needs to locate Garrett Wilson and Allen Lazard.

    The Broncos are also extremely weak when it comes to stopping the run. They’re 31st against it, with only the Panthers being worse. Breece Hall had a great performance versus the Broncos before suffering an injury, so perhaps we’ll see another huge run from again.

    RECAP: The Jets and Broncos have been two of the most disappointing teams this year, though for different reasons. Aaron Rodgers’ injury obviously capsized the Jets’ chances, while Denver has been so miserable defensively. Any hope that they would show any pride after allowing 70 points went out the door when they struggled to stop the Bears.

    Of these two underachieving teams, the Jets appear to have the most potential to rebound and make a run at the playoffs. Denver’s defense appears to be broken, but the Jets have battled such a tough schedule. Zach Wilson has been poor for the most part, but he has battled nothing but top-11 defenses. The Broncos are ranked dead last!

    It wouldn’t surprise me if Zach Wilson has his best game yet and defeats the Broncos, who have battled nothing but bad defenses this year. Denver has no business being favored by a field goal over a competent opponent anyway, and the team could be looking ahead to battling the Chiefs in four days. I like the Jets enough to bet a couple of units on them. I loved them much more at +3, but the sharps took that away from us before I could analyze the game.

    THURSDAY THOUGHTS: There’s sharp money on the Broncos … again. They’ve been burned by the Broncos twice this year, so will they be losing a third time?

    SATURDAY NOTES: I believe we now know why the sharps are on the Broncos again, and it may have to do with the injury report. Denver will be getting back three key defensive players – Justin Simmons, Josey Jewell, Frank Clark – from injury, while the Jets won’t have stud corner D.J. Reed. I think this swings things toward the Broncos enough that I want to change my pick and perhaps bet them. The bottom line here is that for the Jets to cover, you need Zach Wilson to either win or lose by 1-2 points, and that’s a tough ask.

    PLAYER PROP: I’m betting Dalvin Cook under 25.5 rushing yards and under longest rush 9.5 yards. Cook has eclipsed 18 rushing yards once this year, and that was in Week 1. Cook has looked terrible, and now Breece Hall is off his pitch count. It wouldn’t shock me if Cook did nothing in this game. The best line is under 25.5 -113 on FanDuel and under 9.5 longest rush on DraftKings. You can get some great FanDuel & DraftKings promos by clicking the link. It’s always awesome when a sportsbook gives you free money to wager with, and you can get that by clicking the link and signing up with FanDuel and/or DraftKings.

    SUNDAY MORNING NOTES: If you missed it, I’ve switched to the Broncos. I had a more detailed explanation in last night’s video:



    FINAL THOUGHTS: There’s more sharp money on the Broncos this week than any other team, except for the Cardinals and Vikings. I assume this is because the Broncos are getting several players back from injury, while the Jets will be missing multiple cornerbacks. Also, Zach Wilson needs to either win or lose by 1-2 points for Denver to not cover. The best line is -2 -110 at Caesars.





    The Motivation. Edge: Jets.
    The Broncos battle the Chiefs in four days.


    The Spread. Edge: None.

    WalterFootball.com Calculated Spread: Jets -1.
    Westgate Advance Point Spread: Broncos -3.
    Computer Model: Broncos -1.






    The Vegas. Edge: Broncos.
    The Jets are a public dog.

    Percentage of money on New York: 67% (128,000 bets)


    The Trends. Edge: None.
  • Opening Line: Broncos -3.
  • Opening Total: 40.5.
  • Weather: Sunny, 78 degrees. Light wind.



  • Week 5 NFL Pick: Broncos 23, Jets 20
    Broncos -2 (3 Units) – Caesars — Incorrect; -$330
    Over 40.5 (0 Units) — Correct; $0
    Player Prop: Dalvin Cook Under 25.5 Rushing Yards -113 (1 Unit) – FanDuel — Correct; +$100
    Player Prop: Dalvin Cook Longest Rush Under 9.5 Yards -115 (1 Unit) – DraftKings — Correct; +$100
    Jets 31, Broncos 21




    Kansas City Chiefs (3-1) at Minnesota Vikings (1-3)
    Line: Chiefs by 3.5. Total: 53.

    Sunday, Oct. 8, 4:25 PM


    The Matchup. Edge: Chiefs.

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    KANSAS CITY OFFENSE: It was shocking to see Patrick Mahomes perform so poorly last week, especially after going up 17-0 in the first quarter. Mahomes nearly had a meltdown with multiple interceptions, but came through in the clutch. We could have used one more yard, but sliding before reaching the goal line was the right decision.

    Mahomes should rebound and dominate in this matchup. Whereas the Jets have a great defense that has frustrated elite quarterbacks like Mahomes and Josh Allen this year, the Vikings possess a unit that can’t stop anyone. They have a weak secondary and a pass rush that is in the bottom 10 of pressure rate. This has to be music to Mahomes’ ears.

    The Vikings are better versus the run than the pass, but that shouldn’t matter in this matchup. Rather than Isiah Pacheco making the big plays, it’ll be Mahomes and Travis Kelce, who could finally impress the love of his life.

    MINNESOTA OFFENSE: I’ve written about this for several weeks, but people are underestimating the Chiefs’ defense. Many don’t realize that they’re a top-five unit in the NFL. Granted, Zach Wilson looked like Aaron Rodgers for a couple of quarters on Sunday night, but for the most part, Kansas City has clamped down on the opposition.

    The Chiefs will certainly have their hands full in this matchup, as they’ll be battling an explosive offense for the first time in a couple of weeks. Kirk Cousins has quality blocking in front of him when all of the offensive linemen are healthy, and he has numerous talented receivers who can make big plays.

    The problem with all of this, however, is that the Vikings have shot themselves in the foot so many times this year. It’d be one thing if this were an occasional occurrence, but it’s been every week for them. Thus, we can expect to see Minnesota move the chains well in between the 20s, but then sputter in the red zone once again.

    RECAP: In my previous write-up, I mentioned that the Broncos could be looking ahead to Thursday’s game. The Chiefs may be guilty of doing so as well. Granted, it’s just the Broncos, but it’s a divisional opponent. Besides, why would the Chiefs be amped up to play the Vikings, even if they weren’t a non-conference foe?

    There’s a chance we could see a flat Chiefs team, and if so, the Vikings could remain within the number. Even if the Chiefs get out to a big lead, the Vikings have the firepower to trim the margin and sneak in a back-door cover. Perhaps this is what the sharps are anticipating by betting on Minnesota.

    I considered betting the Vikings, but all I have is the potential motivational angle, which is difficult to predict. I’ll lay off this game instead.

    THURSDAY THOUGHTS: Nothing of note here today aside from the sharps being on the Vikings. I’m not planning on betting this game unless we get some unexpected injury information.

    SATURDAY NOTES: Both teams are mostly healthy, with the Vikings getting Garrett Bradbury back from injury. Marcus Davenport’s presence last week helped as well after he was missed in Weeks 1 and 3. I’m still on the Vikings as a non-bet.

    SUNDAY MORNING NOTES: I doubt I’m betting this game. The sharps love the Vikings, but I don’t trust them not to implode.

    FINAL THOUGHTS: The Vikings are getting the most sharp money this week except for the Cardinals. I’m not betting this game, but if you want to, the best line is +3.5 -115 at FanDuel.





    The Motivation. Edge: Vikings.
    The Chiefs have a divisional game in four days.


    The Spread. Edge: None.

    WalterFootball.com Calculated Spread: Chiefs -4.5.
    Westgate Advance Point Spread: Chiefs -6.
    Computer Model: Chiefs -6.






    The Vegas. Edge: Vikings.
    No surprise here.

    Percentage of money on Kansas City: 65% (163,000 bets)


    The Trends. Edge: Chiefs.
  • Patrick Mahomes is 75-19 SU, 50-43 ATS (38-31 ATS when not favored by double digits.)
  • Andy Reid is 9-5 ATS in his second-consecutive road game with the Chiefs.
  • Opening Line: Chiefs -6.
  • Opening Total: 53.
  • Weather: Dome.



  • Week 5 NFL Pick: Chiefs 27, Vikings 24
    Vikings +3.5 (0 Units) — Incorrect; $0
    Under 53 (0 Units) — Correct; $0
    Chiefs 27, Vikings 20




    Dallas Cowboys (3-1) at San Francisco 49ers (4-0)
    Line: 49ers by 3. Total: 45.

    Sunday, Oct. 8, 8:20 PM


    The Matchup. Edge: None.

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    SAN FRANCISCO OFFENSE: Brock Purdy was one throw away from being perfect against the Cardinals. He misfired only once, which was the result of a Dennis Gardeck pressure. Otherwise, Purdy completed every other pass he threw.

    Purdy will see more pressure in this matchup, especially considering that the 49ers never replaced Mike McGlinchey. George Kittle has been blocking more as a result, but it’s still not ideal because Kittle isn’t usually available to run routes. However, with Trevon Diggs sidelined, that will allow Brandon Aiyuk and Deebo Samuel to shine.

    Of course, there’s also Christian McCaffrey, who seems to have a nice advantage against the Dallas linebackers. The Cowboy linebackers aren’t great in coverage, so this is an area the 49ers will surely exploit. We know this because Kittle had a monster game versus Dallas in the playoff battle last year. Perhaps it’ll be McCaffrey who explodes this time.

    DALLAS OFFENSE: If the Week 3 version of the Cowboys were battling the 49ers, they would stand no chance. They were down three offensive linemen in that game, which explains the loss to Arizona. Two blockers returned last week, though it sounds like Tyron Smith will miss again.

    Even still, Dak Prescott will have the time needed to take advantage of the 49ers’ only defensive weakness. That would be the cornerback play. Outside of Charvarius Ward, the 49er cornerbacks haven’t played well this year, which obviously bodes poorly against CeeDee Lamb and Brandin Cooks.

    Running the ball, however, will not work very well. The 49ers are as stout as it gets in that regard, so Tony Pollard figures to have a poor showing. San Francisco also covers tight ends extremely well, so Jake Ferguson will take a step backward.

    RECAP: Laying -3.5 is the worst thing to do in football. Three is the most common result of any football game. When the spread is -3.5, the margin of three hits 17.49 percent of the time. Thus, you have to have a very good reason for betting a -3.5 line.

    I think we may have a good reason in this game, and that would be the fact that the 49ers own the Cowboys. They’ve beaten them in the past two playoff meetings, and last year’s affair wasn’t particularly close. Perhaps the Cowboys will be able to get revenge, but I think it’s more likely that San Francisco’s elite defense will continue to frustrate Prescott.

    Also, it’s worth noting that the 49ers have gotten sharp action early in the week. That could change as Sunday approaches, but I think the pros are on the right side.

    THURSDAY THOUGHTS: Here’s another game with sharp money on the host. This one also doesn’t interest me very much.

    SATURDAY NOTES: Nothing to report injury-wise. As stated earlier, the sharp money is on the 49ers.

    SUNDAY MORNING NOTES: I may bet this game for a unit if I have a great afternoon.

    FINAL THOUGHTS: So much for having a great afternoon. I can’t recall a worse 4 p.m. window. Joe Burrow was randomly 100 percent, while the Broncos couldn’t stop fumbling the game away. I still like the 49ers, and if you want to bet them, -3 -123 at Bookmaker is the best line. There’s a bit of sharp money on San Francisco, but nothing very significant.





    The Motivation. Edge: None.
    No edge found.


    The Spread. Edge: None.

    WalterFootball.com Calculated Spread: 49ers -2.5.
    Westgate Advance Point Spread: 49ers -3.5.
    Computer Model: Pick.






    The Vegas. Edge: Cowboys.
    The 49ers are getting plenty of money.

    Percentage of money on San Francisco: 65% (140,000 bets)


    The Trends. Edge: None.
  • The underdog is 117-91 ATS in Cowboys games since 2010.
  • 49ers are 41-29 ATS as favorites in night games since 1989.
  • Opening Line: 49ers -3.5.
  • Opening Total: 45.5.
  • Weather: Slight chance of rain, 75 degrees. Mild/heavy winds, 15 mph.



  • Week 5 NFL Pick: 49ers 23, Cowboys 17
    49ers -3 -123 (0 Units) — Correct; $0
    Under 45 (0 Units) — Incorrect; $0
    49ers 42, Cowboys 10




    Green Bay Packers (2-2) at Las Vegas Raiders (1-3)
    Line: Raiders by 1.5. Total: 44.5.

    Monday, Oct. 9, 8:15 PM


    The Matchup. Edge: None.

    This week on ESPN, we’re going to have awful announcers calling the shots instead the great preseason homers like Kevin Reilly, Ron Wolfley and Don Tollefson, inept ESPN guys Emmitt, Herman Edwards, and aloof people like Jay Cutler. Here’s what it would sound like if some of these dudes (and some special guests) were calling this game:

    Reilly: Welcome to the city of Las Vegas, where tonight, the Oakland Raiders take on the Green Bay Fudge Packers. Guys, we have lots of talented players on the field tonight even though none are as talented as anyone on my Philadelphia Eagles. But guys, no one cares about any of the players, or anything that’s going to be happening on the field because we have a special guest here tonight. It’s Taylor Swift! She’s here to watch her boyfriend Travis Kelce’s best friend’s roommate’s cousin’s dog’s previous owner’s landlord’s bad touch uncle’s business partner’s nephew’s understudy’s aunt’s former employer’s bookie’s best friend’s cactus caretaker’s godfather’s grand niece’s pizza delivery boy’s brother in action tonight! I’m so excited because Taylor Swift is here!

    Emmitt: Thanks, Celes. I very excitement to see D’Taylor Swift tonight. He doing real good for the Philadelphia Eagle when he run the ball and also run the ball. He very good at run, which mean that when he run, he run good. He use to play for the Lion, which remind me of my favorite TV show, the Blizzard of Oz, who best friend the Scarecow, the Robot, and the Tiger.

    Reilly: Emmitt, you’re thinking of D’Andre Swift, the best running back anyone has ever seen. Even better than you. I’m talking about Taylor Swift, the ultra hip pop singer. In fact, she’s joining us in the booth now. Taylor, welcome to the broadcast, are you a fan of football?

    Taylor Swift: OMG, I love football and Travis Kelce!

    Tollefson: Hey, pretty lady, look in that direction while I smother your face with the chloroform rag.

    Reilly: Tolly, please don’t try to make Taylor Swift a female slave of yours. She’s the greatest songstress of our generation, and I wish I was in Travis Kelce’s shoes right now because I would be an amazing boyfriend for Taylor Swift. I would show her my Nick Foles picture collection, and I could tell her that I have friends in high places like John Feasterman. Senator Feasterman, tell Taylor Swift how cool I am!

    John Fetterman: Ketchup for breakfast! Aaron Jones ran the turmoil over the rainbow and then Sam LaPorta feed the dog to the purple plate. Jones LaPorta was the one who called the phone and then the crown fell off the crown, now if you’ll excuse me, it’s time to bicycle the controller into the microwave. Mommy says cookie!

    Reilly: Wow, I can see why people voted for you, John Festerman! Our country is better in your hands! You see, Taylor Swift, I have friends in high places. I’d say you could date me instead of that loser Travis Kelce, but Mother won’t allow me to talk to girls because I’m a flower who has not blossomed yet.

    Adam Schefter: Kevin, I was injecting my 719th Covid vaccine into my anus when a call came in. It’s your mom, Kevin. Here, talk to her because this vaccine isn’t going to inject itself.

    Reilly: Mother, I’m sorry! I didn’t mean to talk to Taylor Swift, but I was so star struck! Please, don’t take away my Nick Foles pictures and macaroni and cheese dinners!

    Reilly’s Mother: Hey Poopikins, I know that I told you that all girls are the devil except mama, but I’m signing your permission slip to talk to pop singers so you can date them like Travis Kelce. All the ladies at the hair salon can’t stop talking about Taylor Swift and Travis Kelce, and I said that my baby can date a pop singer who’s even more popular! So, even though girls are the devil, mama wants the hair salon ladies to be jealous of her and her poopikins.

    Reilly: OK Mother, I will not let you down. President Joe Biden, you are a smart guy who is so popular that you got 81 million legit votes. How can I score a date with a pop singer?

    Joe Biden: Now look here, you apple-picking Playstation controller, you’re never going to get a young girlfriend with that attitude. You need to seize control of the situation. Find a young lady who’s crossing her legs. Maybe at the local kindergarten, but she may be too old already. Ask her age, and if it’s less than half-a-dozen you’re on the right track. Go up to her and say, “Here’s the deal. I’m George Biden and I’m running for senate. And I got a shower with your name on it.” If that doesn’t work, then give her choco-choco chip ice cream. All classy ladies like choco-choco chip ice cream. Sometimes I rent an ice cream truck and get all the kids into the truck and take them into the shower after I drink their blood. I don’t drink kids’ blood, where do you get that conspiracy theory!?

    Donald Trump: Excuse me, excuse me, Sleepy Joe is wrong, wrong, excuse me, excuse me, Sleepy Joe just said that he eats choco-choco chip ice cream and that’s the best flavor, which is totally wrong because Sleepy Joe is a total disgrace, and only total losers like choco-choco chip ice cream, especially Sleepy Joe, who is the biggest loser of them all, believe me, no one knows about ice cream more than I do, everyone agrees, frankly, and I know that anyone who likes choco-choco chip ice cream is a total loser and a total disgrace, unlike me, who is the best at eating ice cream, at least that’s what people say, I don’t know if it’s true, but that’s what people say, so it must be true about me being the best at ice cream and Sleepy Joe being the worst a ice cream.

    Wolfley: DONALD MONK, CHOCO-CHOCO CHIP ICE CREAM IS BANNED ON MY HOME PLANET BECAUSE A STAPLER WITH COOKIES FOR LEGS ATE THEM ONCE AND DIED. REST IN PEACE, STAPLER WITH COOKIES FOR LEGS.

    Reilly: Oh, who cares!? So, Taylor Swift, now that Mother signed my permission slip to talk to pop singers, will you be my girlfriend?

    Taylor Swift: OMG, I love football and Travis Kelce!

    Reilly: Is that a yes or a no? Can someone tell me if that’s a yes or a no? Do I have a girlfriend yet!? New Daddy, do I have a girlfriend yet!??!?

    Jay Cutler: Yes.

    Reilly: I do? I DO!? I HAVE A GIRLFRIEND!?!??!?!

    Jay Cutler: What? No, I’m talking on the phone to someone.

    Charles Davis: Kevin, sounds like you’re discussing relationships, Kevin. Let’s talk about all different types of relationships, Kevin. How about we begin with-.

    Reilly: F**K YOU, CHARLES DAVIS, I KNOW WHAT YOU’RE GOING TO SAY! YOU’RE GOING TO LIST DIFFERENT RELATIONSHIPS AND THEN POINT OUT THAT I’M NOT IN ONE. WELL F**K YOU BECAUSE MOTHER SAID I CAN TALK TO GIRLS NOW, SO THIS FLOWER IS FINALLY READY TO BLOSSOM, AND I WILL HAVE A POP SINGER GIRLFRIEND BY THE SUPER BOWL! We’ll be back after this!

    GREEN BAY OFFENSE: “No Cookie” Jordan Love didn’t have a great showing last Thursday against the Lions. Of course, it didn’t help that his offensive line permitted five sacks. That won’t be as much of an issue this week, as the Raiders can’t get pressure outside of Maxx Crosby. The Raiders generate pressure on opposing quarterbacks just 12.5 percent of the time, which puts them 31st in the NFL. Only the Broncos are worse.

    With much more time to throw, Love will take advantage of a healthier supporting cast. Christian Watson returned to action last week, but was on a snap count. He’ll be able to play a full game this time, which bodes well against the Raiders’ poor secondary.

    Love will also be aided by Aaron Jones’ presence. Jones, like Watson, was on a snap count versus the Lions, but having 10 days off will change that. The Raiders aren’t poor versus the run, but their linebackers may have trouble defending Jones as a receiving threat out of the backfield.

    LAS VEGAS OFFENSE: Aidan O’Connell had a great preseason, but didn’t look ready for NFL action last week. He held the ball way too long in the pocket and took plenty of sacks. He also fumbled a few times. This shouldn’t matter Monday night because Jimmy Garoppolo figures to return from concussion protocol.

    Garoppolo is obviously the better option, but the Packers have a dynamic pass rush that will make life difficult for Garoppolo in his return to action. Green Bay is third in pressure rate, while the Raiders don’t block very well. Also, the Packers have a talented secondary that can limit his talented receivers, assuming that Jaire Alexander can return from injury.

    The weakness of the Packers is their poor run defense, but it doesn’t seem like the Raiders will be able to exploit it. Josh Jacobs is a talented back, but the blocking in front of him is abysmal. He ranks near the bottom in yards before contact among starting running backs because his offensive line just isn’t opening up holes for him.

    RECAP: Green Bay’s blowout loss to the Lions may have given us a good opportunity to bet them this Monday night. Had that loss never happened, there’s a chance the Packers would be favored by three in this contest. As it currently stands, Green Bay is favored by less than a field goal, which makes them look very appealing.

    I don’t think these teams are particularly close, especially considering that the Packers will be far healthier after extended rest. They’re 11th in net EPA, ranking 12th in offense and 17th in defense, two numbers that will improve with a healthier roster. The Raiders, conversely, are 29th in net EPA. They’re 20th in offense, but 29th in defense. Had Wil Lutz not missed a couple of routine kicks in the opener, the Raiders would be 0-4 right now with two blowout losses to the Bills and Steelers. They lost to Pittsburgh by five, but trailed 23-7 prior to garbage time.

    The Packers are much better than the Raiders in every regard. With extended time to prepare, they shouldn’t have an issue winning this game by a field goal or more. I love them in this spot, as we’re getting the superior team with great line value (I made this line Green Bay -4). Oh, and the sharps are also betting the Packers, which is just a nice bonus.

    THURSDAY THOUGHTS: This line has moved in favor of the Raiders, and I can’t fathom why, aside from perhaps more optimism that Jimmy Garoppolo will return from his concussion, which we expected in the first place.

    SATURDAY NOTES: There’s been some sharp money on the Raiders, but not a lot. I can’t say I agree with it, as the Packers are the much better team and are playing with extended rest. Also, the Raiders probably won’t have Davante Adams at full strength. Adams was DNP-DNP-limited this week and wasn’t 100 percent upon his return versus the Chargers.

    SUNDAY MORNING NOTES: No update from last night. I saw that there was some movement away from the -2.5, so that’s a good sign.

    MONDAY AFTERNOON NOTES: Yesterday was rough, and Week 5 looks to be our worst week since Week 7 of 2022. Hopefully this game will help. I still love the Packers, and we’re starting to see some sharp action come in on them. With some luck, we’ll get a viable +3, but I doubt that happens. Check back around 7:30-7:45 for my final thoughts!

    FINAL THOUGHTS: I still love the Packers. The sharp action has been split on this, with some early on the Raiders and then some late on the Packers. The best line is +1.5 -108 at Bookmaker. I’ll have a couple of prop bets posted shortly!

    PLAYER PROPS: I’m betting on Jayden Reed over 33.5 receiving yards -115 at BetMGM and Reed to score the first touchdown at 20/1. The Raiders are missing Nate Hobbs, their excellent slot cornerback, so Reed should have a great performance. He’s gone over that receiving yardage in every game anyhow! You can get some great BetMGM promos by clicking the link, including $1,500 in bonus bets!





    The Motivation. Edge: None.
    No edge found.


    The Spread. Edge: Packers.

    WalterFootball.com Calculated Spread: Packers -4.
    Westgate Advance Point Spread: Packers -1.
    Computer Model: Packers -4.5.






    The Vegas. Edge: None.
    Equal action.

    Percentage of money on Las Vegas: 51% (63,000 bets)


    The Trends. Edge: Packers.
  • Matt LaFleur is 13-4 ATS after a loss.
  • Opening Line: Packers -1.
  • Opening Total: 43.5.
  • Weather: Dome.



  • Week 5 NFL Pick: Packers 31, Raiders 24
    Packers +1.5 -108 (5 Units) – Bookmaker — Incorrect; -$540
    Over 44.5 (0 Units) — Incorrect; $0
    Player Prop: Jayden Reed Over 33.5 Receiving Yards -115 (1 Unit) – BetMGM — Incorrect; -$115
    Player Prop: Jayden Reed to Score First Touchdown 20/1 (0.3 Units) – BetMGM — Incorrect; -$30
    Raiders 17, Packers 13






    week 5 NFL Picks – Early Games
    Bears at Redskins, Jaguars at Bills, Texans at Falcons, Panthers at Lions, Titans at Colts, Giants at Dolphins, Saints at Patriots, Ravens at Steelers




    Prop/Teaser/Parlay Picks
    A list of some of my favorite team/player prop picks this week
    (Offense & defensive ROY picks to be counted whenever winners are announced.) Picks carried over on a week-to-week basis will be in black.


    Prop/teaser/parlay picks posted in Week 5 NFL Picks – Early Games



    2024 NFL Mock Draft - April 9


    NFL Power Rankings - Feb. 22


    Fantasy Football Rankings - Feb. 19


    NFL Picks - Feb. 12




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    My Team-by-Team ATS Record
    This section shows how well I do when picking each team this year. The purpose is to see how well I read each team. Pushes are not displayed. Winning/losing streak in parentheses.

    Cowboys: 8-9
    Bears: 11-4
    Bucs: 6-11
    49ers: 10-7
    Eagles: 7-7
    Lions: 9-8
    Falcons: 8-9
    Cardinals: 8-9
    Giants: 7-9
    Packers: 5-12
    Panthers: 8-9
    Rams: 8-9
    Redskins: 14-3
    Vikings: 6-9
    Saints: 10-7
    Seahawks: 7-9
    Bills: 9-7
    Bengals: 12-5
    Colts: 7-10
    Broncos: 9-6
    Dolphins: 6-11
    Browns: 11-5
    Jaguars: 13-4
    Chargers: 8-9
    Jets: 8-9
    Ravens: 11-6
    Texans: 5-12
    Chiefs: 5-10
    Patriots: 7-9
    Steelers: 11-6
    Titans: 9-8
    Raiders: 6-9
    Divisional: 50-35 (2011-22: 558-526)
    2x Game Edge: 36-24 (2011-22: 363-361)
    2x Motivation Edge: 32-36 (2011-22: 478-405)
    2x Spread Edge: 41-40 (2011-22: 197-168)
    2x Vegas Edge: 41-38 (2011-22: 407-406)
    2x Trend Edge: 15-13 (2011-22: 306-279)
    Double Edge: 17-13 (2011-22: 190-172)
    Triple Edge: 1-1 (2011-22: 32-36)

    2003 Preseason: 3 | 4 | 5
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    2004 Preseason: 1 | 2 | 3 | 4
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    2005 Preseason: 1 | 2 | 3 | 4
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    2010 Preseason: 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 |
    2010 Season: 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 | 16 | 17 | 18 | 19 | 20 | XLV |
    2011 Preseason: 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 |
    2011 Season: 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 | 16 | 17 | 18 | 19 | 20 | XLVI |
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